jCountries would be un much better shape if they were constitutionally forced to balance the budget, and politicians were forbidden to borrow even one cent from anyone.
Hi Chris,
I would be very interested in hearing your views regarding the moves that are supposedly underway currently by France and Germany to limit the budget deficits of member states or take those countries to court in return for "saving the euro".
Whilst this is not exactly the same as what you are calling for above (where no borrowing should be permitted) do you think it's at least a move in the right direction?
At first I thought it was, but perhaps this would restrict competition between member states themselves and give a clear advantage (at least in the short term) to the "good" countries? Also, is this just interference in the market at the end of the day?
Hi Chris, my premise is that borrowing prudently for investment is rational and defensible. The shannon hydro project or good infrastructure are prudent investments in this sense which may require borrowing and facilitate wealth generation. Education is another one.
The issue you raise around governments being unwise is somewhat valid., but one cannot assume that private companies, regardless of the incentives, are necessarily better, or more saavy o that public investment is always poor, Norway's investments on behalf of it populace being a case in point.
But essentially I think this talk of new rules is purely political PR for Merkel and Sarkozy. There were rules in place before called the stability and growth pact, but every single country including Germany and France, broke the rules. Nothing will convince me that the same exceptions will not be made again.
Running a balanced budget wouldn't work. As Sunny says countries need to borrow and not all borrowing is bad, in fact it can be wealth-generating. The problem isn't borrowing per se, it's imprudent borrowing. As a rule of thumb,borrowing to fund day to day spending is bad.
But we also have a ideological, social and economic problem: we are addicted to growth, and economic growth has become the objective and measure of well-being. The inherent premise is that the more wealth the better the country, the happier the people. This is patently false, or at least substantially false. As the philosopher Khalil Gibran (The Prophet) says "Beware of comfort that enters your house as a guest and becomes the master."
There has been a massive drop in investment exp by the private sector (households and firms), esp on houses.
So the private sector is no longer borrowing from abroad.
In fact, it is a net saver.
If it saves more than the Govt borrows, then the nation as a whole is a net saver.
That is what's happening in 2011.
Look up two of the most disastrous "investments" made by the US government in the companies Solyndra and EnerDel. Both companies could not get loans, so the US government stepped in to fund what was termed a no-brain investment in the green energy industry. $700m have been wasted as Solyndra has declared bankruptcy and EnerDel is scaling back operations to avoid bankruptcy.
Burt Folsom has some quick commentary about this:
Yes, sometimes things don't work out, but when the money you play around with is not yours then you are not as careful with it as a private investor would be. Fact is that Solyndra could not get investment from the private sector, that means that no private investor thought that the company was worth investing in. What magic insight do bureaucrats have that allows them to bet against the market?Well sometimes things don't work out and a large problem is the fact that the US allows importation of cheaper goods from China from companies that are funded by the state there.
The idea was good, the overall implementation bad.
This is not correct. there has been absolutely no profit from all the bail outs in the US.On the other side of the coin, government intervention following the credit crisis actually saved 100,000s of jobs in the auto industry and other industries in the US and almost all the money has already been paid back at a net profit to the taxpayer!
The commentary I pointed to is based on basic economics, something that is never correctly represented in commentary about the bailouts. Your argumentation is that if the government had not bailed out the auto industry then thousands of jobs would have been lost, i.e. absent the government "investment" these jobs would have gone. But this completely ignores the fact that government has no money of its own, it takes it out of the productive economy. So that means that the money "invested" in the auto industry is money that was not invested by the private sector, so there is no net gain!So be careful reading commentaries from the US as they usually have a political slant rather than a balance viewpoint.
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