Bubbles Really Can Burst

SLAPPY

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That sound you can hear is the air being let out of the U.S. property bubble.

That smell in the air is from the **** hitting the fan.

I split time between south Florida and Dublin and witnessing the beginning of something ugly down here in the Redneck Riviera. Florida, along with California and Las Vegas have been at the center of the buying frenzy over here, with most propertys up over 100% the last four years. It was just too good to last. I guess you just can't outrun economic laws forever.

The market here quietly peaked about a year ago without anybody knowing. Since then home inventorys on the market have skyrocketed. In Miami alone there are over 20,000 condo up for sale, mostly over $250,000. The smart ones are beginning to lower their asking price to entice buyers, but nobody is buying. Oh, by the way, there are currently over 70,000 condos in some stage of development that speculators bought pre construction to sell off when they're completed (at what they thought would be a higher price). I have already hear stories of thousands of people pulling out of their contracts and loosing their deposits. I have a feeling alot of these condo developments may go bust before they are ever built. Alot of people were just trying to make some easy money, but will end up bankrupt. I thought real estate prices could only go UP UP UP????

Homes in my area have been sitting on the market longer and longer. The buyers, most investers, have gone away and people are getting desperate to get rid of their 2nd homes. I have a fried who has dropped his asking price from $450,000 to $350,000 and still can't find a buyer. Everyone agrees that house prices will drop, but who knows how far they will go in the next few years 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%?????

The same thing is happening in all other property hot spots around the country. Housing inventories numbering in the tens of thousands in most cities. Oh crap, I think they overbuilt.

Things are still in the early stages of decline here, but I'm amazed how quickly things can turn. The press is only beginning to spin a bad vibe on the whole situation. Only months ago, people were desperate to sign up for some hot new pre constuction housing project.

Heres the scary thing. The property bubble over here has been fueled by exotic 100% "no money down" adjustable rate 30 year mortgages with a teaser interest rate for the first two years (1 or 2%) and will then adjust to normal levels. Many of these rates will begin to adjust in the coming months. Yikes. Imagine having your mortgage payment jump from $1000 a month to $1400 when they start paying 7% interest. Most economist predict that at least 20% of these "suicide mortgages" will end up in forecloser in the next few years. Property prices would be much lower if people actually had to put 20% down on a house like they did in the past.

Anyway, I just wanted to shed some light on the state of the union here. I hope none of you had hopes of an investment property in Florida or Cali. If so, you may want to wait for the FIRE SALE in 2008 when the dust settles.
 
Jack The Lad said:
Could this have an impact on Irish property in any way at all? Just wondering....

If a bubble bursts in the US, (assuming a bubble exists) then it will possibly impact the US economy, which will impact the Irish economy.

PS Thanks for the first hand account Slappy.



Some data worth seeing on the current slowdown in Florida and other property hotspots, to flesh out slappy's observations.

Florida Existing Home Sales Down 19%
The numbers are clear: it has become a buyer’s market in Florida. State-wide, sales of single-family existing homes were down 19% in January 2006 vis-à-vis January 2005 and down 18% for condos during the same period.
In Sarasota/Bradenton January 2006 sales were down 48% compared to January 2005 (up from a 42% variance from a month earlier comparative period) resulting in a 20-month supply on hand. In West Palm Beach/Boca Raton, Gainesville, Fort Lauderdale, Naples, Miami, Pensacola and Daytona Beach existing home sales were down in January compared with January 2005 by 39%, 37%, 36%, 31%, 28%, 24% and 20% respectively. In Orlando, while sales of existing homes were up 8%, inventory was up 262.22% as compared to January 2005 representing the highest inventory of homes for sale since the local realtor association began tracking the category in 1995.


Foreclosures Up 27%
According to Realty Trac’s Monthly U.S. Foreclosure Market Report for January 2006 foreclosures were up 27% nationwide in January from the previous month (up 13.5% in December) and up 45% from January 2005 with FHA loans (subsidized and sub-prime) falling at nearly twice the national level in some areas. Looking ahead, as interest rates rise to near 7%, and with many recent buyers having bought homes with adjustable-rate mortgages, one can expect an increase in the number of foreclosures across the nation.


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bocade said:
While living in the UK (West Sussex-commuter belt) we bought a house for €79k in June 1992. Our next door neigbour at the time (row of houses exactly the same) had bought their house in June 1989 for £130k. Jun 89 in hindsight was the top of that property cycle. We sold for £99k in late 1997 but the neighbours were still well in negative equity at that point. When the bottom falls out of the market it can happen quickly. It can also take a long time to turn around.

The driving force for that property slump was interest rates. We took on a mortgage in Jun 92 at 16.5%, the interest rate started to drop as was predicted from that point on. In '97 it was around 7.5% from memory but even with much lower rates and prices, people where nervious about going back into the property market.
uk was trying to keep the value of the pound high around early ninties before they left ERM so thats why rates were like that,also dont just look at the interest rates insolation,if interest rates are 10% and inflation is 9% its same as interest rates being 4% and inflation 3%(as it is here now).higher inflation wipes out the value of your mortgage outstanding.high interest rates independent of inflation is rare and is great news for savers with a large lump sum but bad for the economy and hence everyone in long run.
 
I mentioned the rates just to put a context on the times but the point is really more basic. In this case, house prices almost halved in three years (89-92) and after 5 years (92-97) still had not bounced back. There seems to be a feeling in Ireland that property cannot lose money and this is not so. There may not be a similiar event in Ireland as economy/population is expanding but if you does happen you can be sure it will happen quickly and before most people have the opportunity to anticipate it and sell out.
 
I forgot to bring up one more point. The economy in Florida has been driven by one thing....CONSTUCTION. I believe about 15% of the jobs in Florida are in construction. What happens when the builders stop building?? High unemployment just adds a little more fuel to the fire. We will be lucky to get more hurricanes - it will keep everyone busy rebuilding roofs. Does anybody know what percentage of jobs in Ireland are in construction? It must be high because everyone I know does something related to it.
 
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