Technically it's a motion of confidence.
1/10 to win it now.Paddy Power going 3/1 that Cowen loses the vote which I think are very generous odds (1/5 that he wins the vote)
Unless Martin has a plan to offer a FF Tallaght Strategy and support a minority FG government. He could say that a FG/Lab fudge won't fix the country and therefore support FG from opposition. Then 5 years down the line the scene could be set for a FG/FF Nua coalition.I don't think Martin would bring anything should he win. FF are screwed either way . .
Perhaps FF will save a couple of seats should Cowen go, but they're out for a generation in my opinion.
They're all doing whatever suits their own agenda.
Reading between the lines of Lenihan's interview, he'd prefer Cowen to be the public face of FF going into the election and to take the brunt of the beating they'll get regardless of who's leader. In opposition, there'll be more time and space to make a more thought-out claim for leadership.
In Martin's case. it's been suggested that even if Cowen retains leadership, he (Martin) can turn around after the election and say "well, if only I'd be leader, the hiding wouldn't have been as severe".
It's only a matter of timing. Rightly or wrongly, Cowen has become synonomous with the economic meltdown and politically, he's toxic and finished.
At the end of the day .... it's all about ego - me me and only me! Or should that be; I, I and only I?
Martin, Hanifin, Cowen, Lenihan and co are looking after themselves.
Anybody who thinks otherwise is self-delusional.
Marion
+ 1. RIP Fianna Fail, hopefully.
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