Brexit and the Border

The border with Northern Ireland doesn't matter from an economic perspective. What this is really about is the massive proportion of our trade which passes through the UK to the mainland. Trade with the UK, obviously including NI, accounts for 16% of our total trade. Our trade with the mainland (EU excluding UK) accounts for 34% of our total trade. It is the free movement of that which we must protect as a large proportion of it currently moves through Britain.
 
What a day. I haven't had so much fun listening to the news in years.

So a deal was agreed by all sides. Barnier telephoned Varadkar to confirm that it met Irelands expectations, Leo said yes, then Theresa backed out. Unbelievable.

Tomorrow in London will be even more fascinating. Will tabloid ranting against Ireland win the day? Will a backlash grow against the DUP?

Now that the possibility of a separate deal has been conceded in principle by Theresa, what about Scotland, or even London having their own deal. Why not, unlike the NI situation their political leaders actually want a separate deal.

The reality is that the whole thing is not about Ireland at all. The issues here are the same as the issues for the UK as a whole. If Theresa cannot do a deal for Ni she cannot do a deal for the UK.
 
This is the truly best moment in sport since Denis Taylor beat Steve Davis in the final ball of the final game.

Even I have my rebel instincts roused, no way should we cave in to the DUP.
 
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How did anyone think this would be acceptable to the DUP? How can Leo be surprised they objected to it?
Was Leo unaware of the existence of the DUP before today? Come off it.
 
odyssey06 said:
How did anyone think this would be acceptable to the DUP? How can Leo be surprised they objected to it?
Was Leo unaware of the existence of the DUP before today? Come off it.
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Agree entirely. What the DUP and the Brexiteers were suggesting on this seemed entirely reasonable to me, it seemed to involve the most minimal of customs clearance, not much greater than existing excise clearance on alcohol and cigs. But, possibly with the mischievous connivance of the EU, we had persuaded the British into an acceptance of this "NI in GB out" solution. She obviously didn't even run it past the DUP. But the DUP veto is about to be shown up as a complete delusion. If JC (traditionally a SF/IRA supporter) proposed a motion of no confidence in May, would the DUP support it, No Way.
 
Purple said:
I have read that a few times and still find it hard to believe
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Purple there is a saying in the North that if you scratch a catholic you will find a rebel. I hate to admit it but the latest episode shows that I am not immune from the syndrome.
 
odyssey06 said:
How did anyone think this would be acceptable to the DUP? How can Leo be surprised they objected to it?
Was Leo unaware of the existence of the DUP before today? Come off it.
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No one thought it would be acceptable to the DUP, but that is Theresa's issue not Leo's. She should have either persuaded or coerced the DUP before telling Barnier she was ready to go ahead.
 
I see no reason to take the pressure of Theresa, whats the worst that could happen?, she can't please both, the UK deal is bigger fish, DUP bluff will be called, they will walk, another election and with any luck the DUP will fall back into the abyss.

I suppose too much to hope that Labour would replace Tories...
 
cremeegg said:
No one thought it would be acceptable to the DUP, but that is Theresa's issue not Leo's. She should have either persuaded or coerced the DUP before telling Barnier she was ready to go ahead.
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I think the mistake Leo made was forgetting that Mrs May is way out of her depth and the job is intellectually beyond her.
 
cremeegg said:
No one thought it would be acceptable to the DUP, but that is Theresa's issue not Leo's. She should have either persuaded or coerced the DUP before telling Barnier she was ready to go ahead.
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Taking Unionist sentiment into account is Leo's issue too though... to say that he is 'surprised' is a blatant lie.
 
odyssey06 said:
Taking Unionist sentiment into account is Leo's issue too though... to say that he is 'surprised' is a blatant lie.
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He was surprised that Theresa was not in a position to sign. He was not the only one. She gave Michel Barnier to understand that she was ready to sign the draft agreement.
 
NI already has "regulatory divergence" from the rest of the UK in matters of Education, Abortion, and Gay Rights, mostly at Unionist urging. The Unionist opposition to extending this to agriculture, medicines and product safety, is pure hypocrisy.
 
Purple said:
I think the mistake Leo made was forgetting that Mrs May is way out of her depth and the job is intellectually beyond her.
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When she became leader, I taught Theresa or may not be a good PM. Surely, at this stage, any fair-minded jury would have returned its unanimous verdict.
 
The very, very worst case scenario is that the Brexit talks crash and burn now and that the UK blames Ireland. Even the CTA would be under huge threat; after all it benefits us proportionately far more than it does the UK. I don't think people in the UK would scapegoat the DUP; even Labour spokespersons are backing their assertion that there can be no divergence within the UK albeit they argue that implies the whole of the UK staying in.

Leo & Simon have played a blinder till now and scored a tremendous goal in injury time just to have it disallowed by the DUP referee. But they must have the courage, if this goes to the very brink, to back off. Given Leo's recent humiliation that would be a very difficult pill to swallow. He would certainly have to make sure that he had MM fully on his side but I would think that MM's backwoodsmen would prevent him from endorsing such a capitulation to the old enemy.

Exciting times but the stakes are getting very high.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Leo & Simon have played a blinder till now and scored a tremendous goal in injury time just to have it disallowed by the DUP referee. But they must have the courage, if this goes to the very brink, to back off.
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They have indeed played a blinder so far. All they need now is the courage to hold the course.

They have the backing of the EU, which will hold, not because the EU loves Ireland but because and at the end of the day the issue of the Irish border is no different from the issue of the border between the UK and the rest of the EU.

What is going on at the moment is just a dry run for the real Brexit/trade deal talks. If the Brexiteer ultras and their DUP colleagues are allowed to bluff Ireland/The EU now, they will come to believe they can do the same again in the second phase.
 
I agree with you fully Cremeegg except for the 'backing of the EU'. We may have it now but I don't doubt they'll throw us into oncoming traffic if the situation demands it.

I also have a feeling we'll pay for this strong EU support in the years to come through our corporate tax policy.
 
I agree with you both up to a point. But there is a real appetite in the UK to throw the toys out of the pram, and the first toys to be thrown out will have Made in Ireland stamped on them.

The disappointing thing is that the DUP are not being pilloried today in the GB even by the good guys. There is a general sympathy for their stand that they should not be treated differently from the rest of the UK. There also seems to be a feeling that we are overegging this border thing, that it could be very manageable with a bit of creativity. And I am not sure this Peace Process (end of) threat carries much weight across the water.

All sides are bluffing here or at least I hope they are. The DUP are certainly bluffing for the last thing they want is JC as PM. Theresa can't call that bluff though for the DUP has considerable sympathy within her own cabinet. Theresa is bluffing when she says No Deal is better than a Bad Deal. Let's hope that Leo/Simon is bluffing that they have currently reached the frontier of their red line on the border issue.
 
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