Bitcoin - steer clear or not?

A

ArthurMcB

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Bitcoin seems to be gone a bit mad.

Is there anything to be said at all for having a bit of it in a diversified portfolio or are we to just steer clear of the stuff altogether?
 
ArthurMcB said:
Bitcoin seems to be gone a bit mad.

Is there anything to be said at all for having a bit of it in a diversified portfolio or are we to just steer clear of the stuff altogether?
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That depends on who you've been listening to on here over the course of the past 6 years.

I know that you posted a few times on these threads over the last few years so you've followed the debate. You asked "is there anything to be said" - you've seen all the pros and cons discussed. I'm curious to know what part of all of that didn't add up for you? There's no point in considering taking a position in it until such time as you yourself reach the conclusion that it stacks up.

On including it as part of a diversified portfolio, Fidelity are recommending 1-3% allocation. A BlackRock analyst stated yesterday that a 28% allocation isn't unreasonable. I think the former is more sober although I'd speculate that it finds its way into most portfolios at that level soon enough.

I will say that I don't think buying when having your head turned by upward price action is the right way to go about it - even if you suddenly changed your view. Best to gain exposure when nobody cares about it (provided the fundamentals stack up for you).
 
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ArthurMcB said:
Bitcoin seems to be gone a bit mad.

Is there anything to be said at all for having a bit of it in a diversified portfolio or are we to just steer clear of the stuff altogether?
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I've got some magic tulip bulbs that I would consider swapping with you for a small manor house. I'd be doing you a favour, mind.
 
ArthurMcB said:
My gut tells me it doesnt stack. Im surprised it now seems to be soaring so high again. What do you put it down to? Is it a bubble or is there merit. I do not know.
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If your gut tells you that, then leave it be I guess.

It's found a brand new market through the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. in January. Launch of those products has proven to be the most successful of any such ETF product launches in the past.
 
Yeah i still simply dont fully understand it. Maybe i am stupid afterall. On that basis. Im out.

Ps. My eyes glaze over at the mention of "spot bitcoin".
 
ArthurMcB said:
Yeah i still simply dont fully understand it. Maybe i am stupid afterall. On that basis. Im out.
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Outlining that you don't understand it while not using that as a basis to declare that in no circumstance could it ever continue to be successful puts you much further on than many around here. It's availability through conventional financial platforms will only serve to broaden the base of people eventually who do have a full understanding of the digital asset.
ArthurMcB said:
Ps. My eyes glaze over at the mention of "spot bitcoin".
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The ETF products are based upon bitcoin's "spot" price in the open market.
 
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I bought a small amount on Revolut three years ago. I was curious about it and it was more to follow it and to try and understand it. It’s been underwater since I bought but in the last few weeks is up. Actually it’s up 20% as I look this evening.

Personally, I wouldn’t go near it as a primary investment as it strikes me as being more like putting money on the dogs.
But just like in any betting scenario, there is always the possibility of winning big.

It’s not for me other than out of curiosity.

g
 
Have you arrived at that conclusion on the basis of having understood it or do you feel that you still don't understand it?
 
@ArthurMcB : Just to give you further insight into what's driving this. There's a supply shock destined to happen in April, when the Bitcoin halving takes place, cutting new supply that makes its way onto the market. At the same time, ETF demand is outstripping existing supply, before that even happens.

To compound matters further, it's not the full extent of the demand that's coming on-stream. RIAs and broker dealers have not as yet fully plugged in to these ETF products.
 
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Not just RIAs and broker dealers buying the ETFs directly, but consider other ETFs that begin to have Bitcoin ETFs as part of their make-up. It's started already with Fidelity in Canada for example:

All-in-One ETFs | Fidelity Investments Canada

Strategically diversify your portfolio with our strong lineup of Fidelity Factor™ ETFs and fixed-income solutions.
www.fidelity.ca

Four fairly general ETFs there that now say they include 1-3% of 'crypto' (look at the pie chart breakdowns on that page), presumably mostly Bitcoin ETFs. This is inflows forever from a majority of customers who probably don't even know they're indirectly buying bitcoin.

As the youth would say 'the game done changed'. It's as if Larry Fink basically declared it as a legitimate investment and billions on the sidelines flowed in. I can hardly believe it's this simple but yet I have no other explanation, and once again the cycle is repeating. How can it keep being this easy.

Saylor is crazy... or the sanest man that ever lived.
 
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DazedInPontoon said:
Saylor is crazy... or the sanest man that ever lived.
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Saylor showed conviction. I read somewhere today that over the past 24hours alone he had made $700M.

Another guy who shipped a lot of criticism (including right here) - this guy -> https://x.com/nayibbukele/status/1762867369217532125?s=20

He was also attacked here on the basis of items entirely unrelated to Bitcoin. Here's his recent epic https://x.com/nayibbukele/status/1759770508847939768?s=20 (put down) of those sort of efforts.

The results are in on Wednesday's BTC ETF trading. New record achieved -> https://x.com/JSeyff/status/1763069374867427767?s=20
 
ArthurMcB said:
My gut tells me it doesnt stack. Im surprised it now seems to be soaring so high again. What do you put it down to? Is it a bubble or is there merit. I do not know.
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Embrace by institutional investors and the launch of many BTC ETF's
 
I was watching Bitcoin around 2012-2013. I thought it was a bit silly reading all the evangelists on places like Reddit. I even joined the sceptics sub to see what they were saying. The more they were sceptical the more it went up. BTC was less than 100 USD.
I kept waiting for it to all fall apart.
BTC went up, came down, but kept coming back.

Then it was 2014, then came January 2015.
At a certain point I realised, it just seemed to always come back. Sure, it was easy to poke holes in it, though it was obvious the basic idea of a blockchain was genius.
By January 2015 it was around 200USD. I had very little money as I was back studying as a mature student but I put in a few hundred euro. I was still wary and sceptical.
But you know what, BTC doesn't care what I think.

I bought in at around 200-400 USD in 2015. And I bought more over the next year. The price went mad in late 2017, early 2018 and reached around 16,000. It bottomed out around 3,500 in Jan 2019. Maybe I should have sold but I didn't.
I took the long view. I was already hugely up as I had bought early. It could fall 90% and I was still way up and I could afford to wait.

Let's just say I am glad I did. Even if this run bursts again this year or next year, I will still wait. I have time. It can drop 95% and I have still made a big return. I only put in a modest amount. I can afford to lose it in the worst case.

Sure, it could all 'go to zero' but at a certain point you have to admit all the hysterical warnings from 2017 onwards look a bit silly now.

All of you here who sat it out for the last 10 years saying it was silly, and being SO SO certain. Almost everyone here has now bought some or will soon or one of their investments will buy it. You are making me rich (well, richer, I should have bought more).
Thanks for that.

People will still come on here today as say it's a bubble or a Ponzi. I suggest you read the posts from 2017 saying the same thing and think carefully.

I don't care if it's a Ponzi or a bubble. I don't do ideology or pontificating from the sidelines. I tried it out and I won. Partly luck, partly judgement. It does not matter. What matters is that I put aside CERTAINTY and telling myself and everyone that I was an expert and that it MUST go to zero. The market does not care what you think.

By the way, lots of talk about ETFS but what about the millions of people who can easily buy crypto on Revolut. You think they won't all soon buy in as well or are already doing so?
 
PS
If you are sure it's a bubble and it MUST go to zero, then you have a great opportunity to make a killing. Short it now but make sure you short it to zero.
A prominent poster on here did short it a few years ago when it was falling and made a small profit.
If I recall correctly, he bet it would fall to 5,000 and it just reached 4,900 or so and he made a small short term profit.

If only he had instead BOUGHT BTC at 5,000 he would now be very wealthy and would telling us all about it. When BTC price falls, it does so just as violently and irrationally as it rises and he made the classic short-term greedy mistake instead of looking at the bigger picture.

Of course, he only bet it would fall to 5000, he didn't have the courage to actually bet it would go to zero.
 
I have followed the bitcoin debate over the years and their always has been two polar sides with a large middle. Personally I understand bitcoin at above basic level. The one element that I struggle with is value as it is not pegged to anything. I have held bitcoin a few times over the years but only with play money I was/am never going to get rich off it but if it losses all the value i wont be running to SVDP either. To me bitcoin is like playing the lotto or putting money on the horses its more a small punt or paying for a bit of entertainment.
 
Hello,

I put quite a lot of time into crypto, a few years ago - took some relatively modest positions, made a few bob, and lost a few bob.

While I learnt some interesting things, and still watch progress with what Ripple are doing, for example, there's one important lessons that I'd like to share with you all, and it's a line that many of you may know, from the music on an old TV show called "Bread" :

Buy it, sell it. the game's gettin' hard. 'cause someone's. dealin' you a losin' card.

This is a completely unregulated market, with the price pegged to nothing - it's controlled by large players, who make massive gains, every time they lure investors in on the back of a rising tide.

Anyone who thinks that this is more than gambling, through betting on the future price, is nuts!
 
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