Key Post Bitcoin is a clearly identifiable economic bubble

time to plan said:
So this will be published in peer reviewed articles presumably? If it's undeniably proven?
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That's a parameter that you have brought into the equation. You're suggesting that Bitcoin didn't act as a decent store of value over the course of 13 years when clearly it did - pull up a chart and look for yourself. Tell me, when you go to the toilet, do you need a team of academics to drop in afterwards and confirm whether you completed the 'big job' or not? The numbers don't lie.

Duke of Marmalade said:
Was Amazon a good store of value? Was a lotto ticket that hit the jackpot a good store of value? You do not decide whether something was a good store of value with hindsight.
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And maybe with that, you should go back and read what i actually wrote. I said that it performed as a decent store of value over the course of 13 years and that this didn't confirm it in the role as a store of value going forward. It's not a mature asset and it's premature to decide on that either way until it has matured.


The guy in the 'parable' wasn't looking for a store of value in any way shape or form. It seems like he was playing spin the bottle with a whole host of poo-coins.

Firefly said:
Ah, but these things take time. Bitcoin is only doing the rounds for the last 13 years. Any decade now the penny will drop and we'll all be buying stuff with Bitcon.
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The same old line Firefly? Really? So nothing has changed since you first rolled this nonsense out 5 years ago? Bitcoin hasn't been recognised as legal tender by two sovereign nations and as a currency by a couple of others? Are you telling me I'm lying when I tell you I get paid every month in Bitcoin? Are you going to deny that when you first trotted that statement out 5 years ago, Bitcoin was only capable of 7 transactions/second and now it's capable of 1,000,000 transactions/second via Lightning Network? Are you going to tell me that my airbnb host last week was lying when he said that he takes payment in Bitcoin on an ongoing basis from clients all around Latin America and further afield? Was I lying to you when I said I paid for legal fees last month in Bitcoin? I've bought meals, groceries, bus tickets and plane tickets with Bitcoin.

Few of these things were an option in early 2018. Yet you'll trot out the same sarcastic nonsense.

I've said it to you many times and never gotten an answer - but seeing as you insist on dredging up the same tripe, I'll ask you again. Should we have judged the internet in 1995 the same way as you are judging the development of decentralised currencies/assets right now? Is there any material difference between internet technology in 1995 and today?
 
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Your argument has remained unchanged over the course of 5 years - and yet, the development of Bitcoin and crypto has not. The fact that you don't use it on a day to day basis doesn't mean that it hasn't made in-roads in respect of all of its use cases.
 
tecate said:
That's a parameter that you have brought into the equation. Your suggesting that Bitcoin didn't act as a decent store of value over the course of 13 years when clearly it did - pull up a chart and look for yourself.
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But it didn't. The price of Bitcoin has gone up and down several times by significant amounts, all in the absence of any major event going on in the world. When 2 very large events do occur (Covid and the war in Ukraine), the very events that a store of value should protect you with, what happens to the price of Bitcon??...it dives. A useless store of value.
 

Numbers don't lie but they are open to interpretation (your interpretation is that BTC is undeniably a source of value). So saying 'numbers don't lie at best doesn't move the discussion along and at worst obfuscates. If your interpretation is correct, it would be most peculiar if there were no peer reviewed articles in learned journals (but maybe there are).
 
@tecate you are obviously a fascinating evangelist for bitcoin and it is great to have you on AAM (mean that).
Can you tell me were those transactions genuinely in bitcoin?
Did you undertake work having agreed a fixed bitcoin price in advance? Does you airnb host set her rents in bitcoin? Were the legal fees invoiced to you in bitcoin? Were your meals, bus tickets and plane tickets priced in bitcoin?
If the answer to these questions is yes then I genuinely am impressed. If it is just that you and others are being accommodated in your desire for whatever reason to transact in bitcoin but at the current exchange rate of the currency in which the good/service is priced, it tells a different story.
 

Right - and so there is interpretation here. My interpretation is that the short term volatility of Bitcoin is not ideal in terms of the characteristics of a store of value. However, from your side of the fence - from experience of this discussion being had here before - the view is that it's rubbish. The data shows that it has performed over the longer term as a store of value over that 13 years.

Firefly will tell us that nothing has changed and it seems nothing will change. Well, these hype cycles will not go on forever - or they will change in terms of their nature. On the naysayer side of the discussion, the view is that they stop and Bitcoin stops. That's not my view. Bitcoin has already show that it is much less volatile than it was in earlier years. I expect that process to continue.

And Firefly - when the GFC hit, gold dived. With the onset of covid, gold dived. In the last couple of months, from the charts I'm looking at, gold is down. Now, it later recovers - sure - but you seem to be suggesting that it just goes straight up when these events happen. It doesn't.
 
I wonder how many of these things were priced in BTC, rather than paid in BTC.
 

Lol. A fan of the rhetorical much, Duke? We've had the unit of account conversation many times before. You seem to think that Bitcoin can't possibly function without it being a unit of account. That's incorrect - as all of those transactions prove. It may at some future stage be a unit of account but it can have all the utility in the world without that ever coming to pass. But nice try!

And by the way, the 'story' is that Bitcoin is being increasingly 'accommodated' as a means of payment. The more it's talked about the more it's normalised - and in that respect, I'd like to thank you for your service over these past 5 years, Duke. You can't imagine the contribution you have made to furthering the acceptance of Bitcoin.
 
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Your interpretation is that it is undeniable that BTC is a store of value - a proven fact. I would find it weird if this wasn't published in peer reviewed articles in learned journals. Wouldn't you find that weird. It would be a very rare undeniable proven (data based) fact of such import that isn't published in such a way.
 
I am sure you are using Bitcoin but with all the hype, I still don't know a single person in Ireland using it to buy anything. I would expect that to be similar across the western world, but maybe you would be kind enough to show what % of transactions are processed in Bitcoin vs FIAT for say the top 10 countries in the world by transactions?

I found this graph which shows the number of transactions for Bitcoin - which is not exactly exponential as you suggest. It's small fish fella!

https://data.nasdaq.com/data/BCHAIN/NTRAN-bitcoin-number-of-transactions


 
I'm making that point that Bitcoin did act (over the course of the past 13 years) as a decent store of value - borne out by it being benchmarked against any sovereign currency of your choice over that period. I went on to say that we can't take that as confirmation that it continues to perform as a store of value - that the asset is immature - and that it's far too early to call that. That is what I said.
Firefly said:
which is not exactly exponential as you suggest. It's small fish fella!
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You're making the point that nothing is happening - that nothing has changed and it certainly seems to me that you're suggesting that it's ridiculous to accept that Bitcoin is immature and in a developmental phase. I gave those examples as indicators that plenty of things have changed since you first trotted out that line. I NEVER mentioned the word exponential. The point is that any of the examples I provided you with would not have occurred back when you first raised this objection back in 2018.
 
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time to plan said:
I did. That's why I asked about pricing rather than payment.
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He erroneously talked about "unit of account" to avoid the str8 answer - they are priced in the local (Latin American) currency. So riddle me this; why would anybody being charged in a basket case currency ask to pay with a store of value, gigital gold no less? Because it's like blessing yourself or conspicuously holding your Rosary beads - it shows you're one of the cult.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
He erroneously talked about "unit of account" to avoid the str8 answer - they are priced in the local (Latin American) currency.
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What the hell are you talking about? In his case, at least he brought it up for the first time. In your case, it was as plain as night and day that the question was rhetorical - because the whole unit of account discussion (and that IS what you were going on about - there's nothing erroneous about it) has been had already. When you run out of ammo, you just go back and regurgitate the same old tired arguments. There's your straight answer comrade marmalade.

Duke of Marmalade said:
Why would anybody being charged in a basket case currency ask to pay with a store of value, gigital gold no less?
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Because they can. They may not be able to pay jack with gold but they can with Bitcoin. Secondly, I said - and have always said - that it's developmental in its role as a store of value. Even if it was confirmed as one, do you know anyone that holds every last cent in gold? Oh, that's right - I forgot - you can't pay anyone in gold anyway.

If the recipient is open to payment in various forms, you are not 'being charged' in local currency. You are being quoted in whatever currency - and in that case, it plays the role of a unit of account. Having had this discussion with you over the space of five years, I'm fully aware that you approach this as black/white, winner/loser.

So to you, the whole unit of account thing takes on some added significance. To me, I couldn't give a fiddlers. It doesn't in any way hinder me paying with Bitcoin and Bitcoin not being a unit of account will not prevent its continued success and development. Digital wallets like Muun Wallet automatically assign BTC value against practically every currency there is. There's no head scratching, delay or inconvenience. As a case in point, in one of those examples, the unit of account used was USD - and not the local currency. If we are to apply your logic, we're to understand that's a major trauma (and yet, it's not).

So why would someone pay in USD or BTC over the local currency? Many reasons, Duke. Maybe they don't have any of the local monopoly money. Maybe they want to make sure they don't have to get any because the 'value' of the stuff can quite literally vapourise in no time? Maybe we're talking about cross-border payments and that brings with it a whole host of other issues. The eCommerce professional that I mentioned takes Bitcoin payment mainly because it's much easier for cross-border payment.

Duke of Marmalade said:
Because it's like blessing yourself or conspicuously holding your Rosary beads - it shows you're one of the cult.
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You're the one that tells us that you have to 'trust' in the central bank high priests and the monopoly money system they run. That's the faith-based nonsense your belief system is so bitterly entrenched in. The 'cult' is right there in the mirror staring back at you. They even draw pyramids and magic eyes on the notes and include cultish 'in god we trust' nonsense on the notes just in case you ever forget the faith-based system it is.
 
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You lack the basic understanding of how crypto works.

I use crypto daily to buy things but the shopkeeper would never know, it's not going to look unusual or say bitcoin or whatever

You are asking for percentages but fail to realise its decentralised
 
@tecate
You were asked by two posters a str8 question as to whether all those cult transactions you undertook were priced in bitcoin. Instead of answering a str8 “no“ you riff on about unit of account.
 
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Duke, you can take the bad natured sentiment that went into your last two posts and shove it where the sun doesn't shine. On the one hand you're trying to suggest I'm clueless (with your arrogant condescending 'basic lesson') and on the other, you're saying that I purposefully didn't give a straight answer. Which is it Duke? Basic Lesson: It's neither.

What precisely has your 'lesson' to do with the point you were trying to make score? Your big phat claim was going to be 'but it wasn't priced in Bitcoin!' So what earthly difference does it make if a Latin country deals on a day to day basis in dollars or in Pesos, Soles Cordobas, Reais, etc.? For what its worth, the example I gave of being quoted in USD occurred in a country that on a day to day basis operates in its own currency.

So, going back to the point at hand, it makes no earthly difference what the unit of account is - that in no way, shape or form hinders someone making or taking payment in BTC. And some more info for you - there are very few countries that don't perform the vast majority of transactions in their own currencies on a day to day basis in Latin America. The notable exception is Venezuela. For some strange reason, I'm up to speed on this.
 
Paul O Mahoney said:
Perhaps if you read other parts of the site you would see we do and I started a thread yesterday.
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At the point at which @CuriousGeorge11 made that comment on this thread yesterday, there was no such discussion on AAM. I know because I had checked. By and large there has been little in the way of discussion of issues related to shortcomings in the conventional monetary system on this board..
My posting style, Paul? I agree it's quite different to yours. I don't go around accusing people of lying and when challenged, can't back up a word of that claim. I know that if I did accuse someone of lying and got it wrong, I'd have the manners to acknowledge the fact. But then, I do have a different posting style to yours. In recent exchanges on here, your focus was on complaining about the poster rather than discussing the actual topic itself.
Beyond that, it's very easy and convenient to throw around vague claims of 'deflection' and 'whataboutery' when by total coincidence, you're taking a diametrically opposing view.

Paul O Mahoney said:
example a post above " Bitcoin will be around longer than the Euro" utter nonsense.
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So an innocent (and yet in no way outlandish) thought posted by @CuriousGeorge11 gets labelled as 'utter nonsense' by you - that's your articulate response on the matter and you'd have us believe that people who by total coincidence express an opposing view to the one you hold are the ones who are 'juvenile' and 'petty'. Makes perfect sense.
 
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