Arf performance past 15 years

[moneymakeover]

With equity /markets performance so good in past 15 years it should be possible for an individual's arf fund after withdrawing 4% and allowing for fees of even 2% for the remaining capital to have stayed intact or even increased? Are there many cases of this?
Maybe not if the funds were invested too cautiously?

 

[Cantillon]

One case:

Over 14 years the ARF has held up, gained a small bit, even after 5% annual withdrawn income.

One fund has been doing all the work, see below. The Cautious Fund grew much slower.

Consensus Fund

• Dec 2008 = 0.773 euro
• 2022 = 2.035 euro
• Growth over 14 years is 163%

Public Sector Cautious Fund Series V

• June 2011 = 1.031 euro
• 2022 = 1.296 euro
• Growth over 11 years is 25.7%
• I presume the growth is dragged down as in the initial factsheet, 25% of this fund is in cash, 25% in Govt Bonds

This is a good example of the long-run growth potential of a diversified basket of (mainly) shares.

 

[Steven Barrett]

Returns of the Vanguard Global Index over the last 15 years assuming a withdrawal rate of 4%, taken monthly. The "ARF withdrawal" graph is the same fund with a 2% amc

 

[moneymakeover]

Yes I know in theory the returns are there and it's certainly possible

I'm interested in real life stories of people who retired with say arf of 300k

and today have say 350k

Are there many of those people in Ireland today?

 

[NoRegretsCoyote]

Returns of the Vanguard Global Index over the last 15 years assuming a withdrawal rate of 4%, taken monthly. The "ARF withdrawal" graph is the same fund with a 2% amc

You would have needed nerves of steel though not to convert to cash in mid-2009 having lost half your wealth in the first 18 months of retirement!

 

[Steven Barrett]

You would have needed nerves of steel though not to convert to cash in mid-2009 having lost half your wealth in the first 18 months of retirement!

Agree 100%. And still remembering what people's knowledge and attitudes to investment risk was back then, very few would have stayed the course. And then of course, banks were offering ARF's 5 year fixed term rates of 5% per annum. very hard to stay in 100% equities through all that.