Are we facing a rental crash?

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I see Edel Morgan (Irish Times) has been keeping an eye on this thread: It's mentioned in [broken link removed], where she describes it as "a heated debate - verging on a spat" and gives a few quotations.
 
Merxman,there a lot of people putting rentals on a at riduculous prices,not surprised they are not renting,also big drops are because the E/As using repeated shortcode daft ads for 2beds and studios,huge difference in price.
 
One thing that strikes me as riduculous in the article in the Irish times is the example of the landlord in Bally... renting for 1600 6 months ago and getting a tenant who took it for 2100 and the landlord is now quoting 1800. The landlord took the 2100 but his tenant only lasted 6 months that tells me that the rent was too high and the landlord was probably more realistic with the 1600 rent in the first place. This does not prove that that rents have crashed more like reality has set in. The increase in rents was unsustainable. As always location is key.
Another point is that there is a quote that Daft have a lot more properties to rent than last October, so what, this only shows that Daft have more of a market share. 10 years ago when they didn't exist there were zero properties on Daft to rent what does that tell us about the rental market crashing - nothing. If Daft had existed for a long time I would take more notice of the increases/decreases. In any case the population of Dublin has dramatically increased as has housing stock so of course the volume of properties to rent has increased.
 
Bronte said:
Another point is that there is a quote that Daft have a lot more properties to rent than last October, so what, this only shows that Daft have more of a market share.
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In fairness, Daft has been around for a fair while and is well recognised as the leader in Property rentals online. I doubt that they have doubled their market share in the last 6 months. Something is amiss if the stock on their books is spiking so quickly.
 

I totally agree. The 2100 was above the odds. Landlord is now back down to 1800 which is still 200 above the going rate of 1600.

People are trying to rent out properties which simply have no renting potential. i.e miles away from anything and completely impractical compared with the ones "in the town". It's not a rental crash because they're not getting rented out in the first place. If you want to call it a crash then it goes under the category of the property crash. People can't sell so they try to rent only to find they can't rent. It's a delayed reaction, they'll be back to where they started only this time they'll have to face reality that their property is not worth as much as their green eyed monster says it is.
 
In any case the population of Dublin has dramatically increased as has housing stock so of course the volume of properties to rent has increased.
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Are you implying that the increases seen in the number of properties for rent on Daft over the past year is broadly (or otherwise) in line with Dublin's population growth?
 
bugler said:
Are you implying that the increases seen in the number of properties for rent on Daft over the past year is broadly (or otherwise) in line with Dublin's population growth?
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This is a very good point. Everybody knows that on average the supply of rental properties has increased over the last year. But has the demand kept up with this pace? The fact that the trend shows reduced rents must mean the demand is not as strong. But why??? Is there any hard facts from the government perhaps to show that foreign nationals are packing up and heading home? Maybe those who have left college and are unable to buy are living at home for longer before renting etc....
 
Crash or no crash people have to live somewhere. They're going to rent or they're going to buy, nobody can seriously suggest that we are going to have a generation of late twenty and thirty somethings living at home with mumsy and dadsy. Foregin nationals leaving the country would be a concern but where's the evidence that foreign nationals are flocking from the country?

When people stop renting and start buying again then the thousands of temporary landlords who are only in the business to ride the storm will be able to sell, and hence leave the rental market.

Doom and gloom all you like but I see nothing to be worried about. Obviously there will be longer vacancy periods as renters have more choice (although in reality the choice is not as great as you think as I mentioned before a lot of properties simply have no rental potential at all). This is part of the business, its not a "crash", its simply business. There are ups and downs.

Me tuppence.
 
There are ups and downs in a cycle.
Bubbles crash.

Crucial difference.
 
cjh said:
There are ups and downs in a cycle.
Bubbles crash.

Crucial difference.
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All I see is the same bubble and thats the property bubble. The property crash is affecting a lot more than just the landlord business. It is of course the most obvious and I can see why everyone is latching on and scaremongering about more bubbles. If everything is a bubble then we have a concrete supply bubble, timber supply bubble, electrical goods bubble, furniture bubble, solicitors bubble, civil engineer bubble etc etc etc.
 
Correct,choice is not as great as you might think,take a breakdown on Dublin.

2 bed apt up to max rent of 1400e pm

South Dublin 171
North Dublin 253
West Dublin 231
City Centre 30
Total 685.

I picked a 2 bed apt at that price,because I feel its not far off what a typical 2 bed can command,and no sorry just because your mortage is 2300e,this does not mean it can command that rent,I feel a lot of rental parkers ie sitting out the crash, are in for a major shock,and will leave the rental market tres vitement,as the monthly cost of subsidising their tenants rent really hits home hard,there is a lot of unrentable overpriced stock stagnating about the country,giving the appearance all rentals are in trouble...not true.
 


http://www.fas.ie/en/About+Us/News/labourmarket2007q3.htm

FAS predicts that net migration will halve in 2008. They also predict a 5.3% unemployment rate for 2008. Given that we are now at 5.5% we need a net increase in employment to take the 2008 average back down to 5.3%.

There is certainly an over-supply of rental accomodation in certain parts of Ireland. But the Daftwatch graphs may only tell half of the story. The increase supply (in some areas) in now meeting reduced demand.
 
Shark, A true representation of the Dublin market can only be assessed when the full figure / amount of property available to rent can be analysed. A selection cannot be accepted as a true analysis. But then you think it's honky dory don't you !!
 
Not to be forgotten that cheaper rents would be great news for all the renters out there. We cheer cheaper TVs, flights and cars. Why not cheaper accommodation too?
 
JohnBoy said:
Not to be forgotten that cheaper rents would be great news for all the renters out there. We cheer cheaper TVs, flights and cars. Why not cheaper accommodation too?
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Indeed. Like many of the other items that form the basket of goods used by the CSO to estimate inflation the Government, Unions, and society in general, should welcome lower rents as they would cheer lower fuel and food costs. Anyone not welcoming lower rents has an obvious vested interest with no concern for the wider economy.

Rising rents add nothing positive to society.
 
JohnBoy said:
Not to be forgotten that cheaper rents would be great news for all the renters out there. We cheer cheaper TVs, flights and cars. Why not cheaper accommodation too?
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I agree with both these posts, didn't the times have a headline along the lines of 'How bad can the rental market get' or something along those lines last week? I for one fail to see how the decrease in price of a basic need is a bad thing except for those amateur landlords who were suckered in by FF and vested interest spin on the property market, and its obviously bad news as VIs will no longer be able to dupe any more unsuspecting amateur landlords into buying overpriced properties until sanity returns to the market. If the price of bread halved tomorrow would it be bad news despite the fact that bakers would be poorer?

Btw its good to see so many people using one example as proof that the entire market is going one way or another.
 
Anyone not welcoming lower rents has an obvious vested interest with no concern for the wider economy.
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To be fair, this is the property investment section. You can't expect landlords to welcome lower rents anymore than PAYE workers would welcome lower wages (even though this would be good for competitiveness).
 
Just to answer the origginal question..the answer is no.

A rental crash is HUGELY unlikely.

A reduction ? Perhaps.

A crassh ? No. Definitely no.
 
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