Oil and other fossil fuels are going to run out. That's it, end of story.
When? I don't know. By some of the environmentalist predictions we should have run out by now. Others predict the end of industrial civilization by 2025
"The newest study indicates that the 'cliff event' will occur about 5 years earlier than 2012 due an epidemic of 'rolling blackouts' that have already begun in the US. This 'electrical epidemic' spreads nationwide, then worldwide, and by ca. 2007 most of the blackouts are permanent. The 'modern way of life' is history by ca. 2025."
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I don't have any qualifications to make me agree or disagree with this guy, but my gut says no.
One of the reasons we haven't run out so far dis that for the moment we're finding as much oil as we're using, and the higher cost of oil makes it economical to tap oil fields that couldn't be tapped in the past.
Of course that only works if the additional money goes to the Oil companies to make it economical. If governments get's the money it does nothing for opening up new Oil Fields.
If it were a simple case that charging the customer more would reduce the consumption of oil then consumption wouldn't keep rising along with price.
How many among us can honestly say that the rising price of oil has a long term effect on our behaviour. When petrol hits 1.30 you MIGHT decide not to take that trip down the country. But when it stay's at 1.30 and becomes the norm, you settle back into your old ways and drive just as much or more.
Slowing consumption (if that is even possible) might buy us a little time.
In all probability a Fossil Fuel tax in a country like Ireland MIGHT marginally decrease Ireland's consumption and make research into alternative energy more cost promising.
Ultimately as the poster above mentions the change will come when there's something to change to. People in the main will continue to behave as they always have. Getting them to row back on fossil fuel won't happen by taxing fossil fuel, it'll happen by giving them something cheaper to turn to so they can still go for those trips down the country when they like.
I'd agree with a Fossil Fuel tax if and ONLY if 100% (or more if possible) of the revenue raised went to people trying to develop alternative technologies.
A bigger problem with Fossil Fuels is the number of products that use them as raw materials. We might find alternative ways of making things move, but you can't use Solar Power or Wind Power to make the following items:
Products Made from Fossil Fuels
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We need more than an alternative to Fossil FUEL's we also need some sort of synthetic material that exhibits the same physical characteristics, so that we can keep making these products. Or we need renewable alternatives to these products.
Will the fossil fuel tax be extended to all of the above products?
How much time would we buy for Ireland or the world if Ireland introduced a tax?
Would Irish people end up getting the hell taxed out of them while China gobbles up as much and more fossil fuel as we save?
Would the Irish government do something useful with the tax, or would they argue that the tax in itself is useful?
Would any of this make a difference to peoples behavior in a world that doesn't have alternatives?
Don't we already have a very high tax on fuel? Why on earth are we even discussing the possibility of the government INTRODUCING a fuel tax?
Are our current Oil issues Man Made (Wars, Increased Consumption not matched by production) Weather Related(Hurricanes), or is it a sign of a move to the end game for fossil fuels?
It's a very interesting subject. We're all going to be talking a lot more about Oil in the next few years.
-Rd