Have been the employer in this situation before - generally we don't see "bad" references, but you would know from the tone and lack of any real praise in a reference that a prospective employee is just ok, and not fantastic.
As Rainday points out, we generally tend to make an offer subject to reference checks. Most employers would realise that it's not really the done thing to check references before first finding out whether the candidate has actually informed their boss of their decision to leave.