Anyone else fear for the state of the nation?

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RMCF

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Watching news reports/debates etc over the last year or 18 months, I am starting to worry about the health of the country as a whole.

For over a year we have been told me need to suffer a lot of pain to recover, and that major cuts have to be made. Of course very few cuts have been made and amazingly, 18 months into the worst recession in this countrys history, we are STILL borrowing €500mill per week.

We continually heard how the people of Ireland would all pull together and help save the country. We were told we would all take the pain and get on with it, in typical Irish fashion. For the greater good.

But again, this is the total opposite of what we all see happening. Every individual wants people to take cuts, as long as its not them. No-one is willing to suffer any pain at all. We all want the borrowing to stop but we don't want to suffer the cuts to make it happen. We want it all.

Does anyone else see a way out of this mess, cos I don't. I can see a bankrupt country in the not too distant future.
 
To be fair to the Government, (and I am don't want abuse for saying that) they have taken steps to fix up their mess. The difficult parts are still to come i.e. cuts in social welfare, public sector numbers and pay, tax increases etc etc but I think they do now realise that there is no way around it. I think Cowan, other ministers and the opposition were slow to get the message while Lenihan to be fair seemed to grasp how bad it was from an early stage and made difficult choices but was undone by political weakness. Witness all the u-turns last year.
However, the Government's plans have been well received internationally and they have made more progress than other Countries in moving to correct a huge deficit.
Like I say though, the real test has still to come.
 
OK so the Gov has made cutbacks, but I think they did them too gently and have been stringing it out over far too long.

Look at their borrowing NOW. Whatever cuts they make in the forthcoming budget should have been made in the last one.
 
RMCF said:
OK so the Gov has made cutbacks, but I think they did them too gently and have been stringing it out over far too long.

Look at their borrowing NOW. Whatever cuts they make in the forthcoming budget should have been made in the last one.
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I think you are forgetting how tough the last budget and supplementry budget was. Doubling of income levies, doubling of health levies, raising employees PRSI ceiling, introduction of the pension levy, Increase in VAT, increase in DIRT, decrease in mortgage interest relief etc etc. Remember he took out about €3.5 billion last year. It wasn't an easy budget.

The problem was he didn't touch social welfare and he didn't take enough off the public pay bill.
 
RMCF said:
Every individual wants people to take cuts, as long as its not them. No-one is willing to suffer any pain at all. We all want the borrowing to stop but we don't want to suffer the cuts to make it happen. We want it all.
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I aggree with this and have posted similar comments before.
I think the government set its stall out early in the year when rather than cutting PS pay with a direct cut, they went the way of the pension levy so PS pensioners would not be affected. I've no doubt that most of these are not on huge pensions but the pension bill is 2 billion and if the government starts excluding certain groups from the cuts it will be impossible to close the deficit.
Also, they issued An Bord Snip report which recommended 5.3 billion in cuts. Even though we need more than this, they said this was a 'menu of options', which gives groups affected by the report a reason to protest that their area should not be affected.
 
To be fair to the Government, (and I am don't want abuse for saying that) they have taken steps to fix up their mess.
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All I see the Government doing is bailing out their buddies and working away on NAMA.
The tax payer fits in when it's time to pay the bill.

The Government are not being fair to us. The Irish Government is the cause of our current problem.
 
umop3p!sdn said:
All I see the Government doing is bailing out their buddies and working away on NAMA.
The tax payer fits in when it's time to pay the bill.

The Government are not being fair to us. The Irish Government is the cause of our current problem.
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Yawn.
 
Sunny said:
To be fair to the Government, (and I am don't want abuse for saying that) they have taken steps to fix up their mess.
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I know Sunny but the gap has got wider rather than smaller. Even the 4 billion in this year's budget is just to keep the deficit the same for next year. The minister has conceded it will not close the gap next year.
I don't know what the answer is but to anser the OP's question I am worried because I can see a situation in a year or two where reasonable cuts may have been made in PS pay and social welfare, and a huge gap still exists.
 

But people have to remember we are in a recession. They were running to standstill. The Government can't get rid of the deficit over night. It was always going to increase while unemployment was exploding and economic activity was falling off a cliff. Hopefully now that this seems to have steadied off, we will start to see progress being made. I don't see how we will have solved the problem in the timeframe suggested by the EU. But neither will Spain, France Italy or most other European Countries.

By the way, the Government got us into this mess so I am not defending them. But I am not going to waste my time blaming them for the next few years while the Country goes down the toilet.
 
By the way, the Government got us into this mess so I am not defending them. But I am not going to waste my time blaming them for the next few years while the Country goes down the toilet.
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The Government have had about two years to try to sort out the mess they've caused. I do not see much progress. I see things getting worse. We need jobs and employment so that country can start making money again. All I see is more and more insolvencies and redundancies.

Unless we cut out the rot and corruption, all the cuts and suffering will be in vain. All our levies and taxes will just be poured into failed banks.
 
Sunny said:
To be fair to the Government, (and I am don't want abuse for saying that) they have taken steps to fix up their mess.
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Just on this, wasn't there some commentary fairly recently from some European body - or maybe the ECB itself? - that praised Ireland's response and measures taken thus far, and that our credit rating as a country has recently improved? Could all be window dressing though I guess.

It seems too that the general opinion is that in contrast, the UK have taken a much softer approach to their economic woes and that although they are in the slow process of recovery now, they haven't really attempted to tackle their problems properly. Our recovery, although slower and more painful in the short term, may be ultimately more full and healthy, relatively speaking.
 
They have been praised (if that is the right word) by both the EU and the rating agencies for what they have done and what they say they will be doing. Of course talk is cheap.

The UK is a good example of a Country that has still has an awful lot of pain to go through.
 
From Irish Times 5 nov 2009

[broken link removed]


So no, our credit rating hasn't gone up, it's gone down.
 
umop3p!sdn said:
From Irish Times 5 nov 2009


[broken link removed]


So no, our credit rating hasn't gone up, it's gone down.
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Never said it had gone up. Everyone expected it to go down. The market had priced in the downgrade
The key thing was they left it stable and that was because of the actions taken by the Government and what they were planning. Otherwise they would have put it on negative watch. Look at the warning they recently gave the UK about the lack of action over the public finances.
 
Sorry, I was just responding to Caveat who thought our rating had improved.
 
Sorry - my mistake, badly worded.

I didn't mean to imply that we had actually been 'upgraded'. My reference to improvement was more a comment on stabilisation and outlook. It appears that we are regarded as a less risky prospect than we were.
 
It appears that we are regarded as a less risky prospect than we were.
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My understanding is they don't think our rating will go down again. Having gone down two notches, we certainly are more of a risk than we were.
 
The interesting thing with the credit ratings is the content of the reports. It's wrong to just take Fitch and not include Moody's, R&I or Standard & Poor into account also.

In the main Fitch's view is slightly different, though in my experience they have a greater understanding of how Europe works economically. However, all have Ireland as still being stable and strong in the long term, though the other three have a negative aspect to the short term.

All reports, however, point to the exact same issues as to why they are optimistic on Ireland inc, and what might upset some, how the government has managed the situation. They don't make such statements out of hand, compare to their reports on the UK, but they do feel the front loading of cuts and taxes here was the better option.

The other areas they clearly liked are:

1. Yes to Lisbon. Hardly something the government can really take credit for, but it is acknowledged.
2. NAMA. All recognise it is a risk, but all believe it is a risk that will work out in the long term, but will mean short term negativity. I can't see a reason to disagree with that.
3. Public spending cuts proposals.

For all the faults of the credit rating agencies, it isn't unreasonable to say that if the actions and proposed weren't taken we would be in a very precarious position, especially with borrowing. The mere fact that given where we were that we have been to borrow against huge competion from the likes of the US and the UK is some achievement. Something the government hasn't been given credit for.

There is no way we would have existed since January if we hadn't accessed that money. But there's one big condition on that money and it is to cut public spending. If we don't, no more money.
 
RMCF said:
Every individual wants people to take cuts, as long as its not them. No-one is willing to suffer any pain at all. We all want the borrowing to stop but we don't want to suffer the cuts to make it happen. We want it all.
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I don't believe this. I think that most people are willing to take pain. But there needs to be a joined-up plan which is clear and fair. I don't think that the present Government has the moral authority to push through the necessary measures. I would like to see a general election.
 
a general election would be even worse for the country - it would take even longer for action to happen and if the opposition get in which is likely, by the time they start again and undo FFs plans and put their own in place... how long will have passed and who knows if the end result would be any better.

yes, rambling I know, but too much to punctuate!
 
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