Bob
4% is the minimum drawdown from an ARF but that increases to 5% after age 70.
How long the ARF fund lasts depends on two main factors:
- the amount of drawdown each year, and
- the rate of investment growth (hopefully) over time.
The rate of investment return will largely depend on the type of fund you invest in. Clearly a low/no risk fund such as Cash, will hardly deliver a positive return after you take management charges into account. So in effect your fund will gradually fall by 4%/5% pa over time.
On the other hand, if you are prepared to take some investment risk (say a Managed Fund of some type) then you might expect to generate a return which might cover the drawdown + management charge. BUT THIS ENTAILS TAKING INVESTMENT RISK which might pay off or might not. Some years you might get a very positive return (10%+) but in other years you might have negative returns (-10%). So can you live with that level of volatility?
It is important to remember that a male retiring today at say 65 has an average life expectancy of 20 years. If you really are prepared to take a long term investment perspective (20years) then a Managed Fund (of some type) may be a reasonable strategy BUT you must be prepared to live with some years of poor/negative performance. If you are the type of investor which might panic if markets head south for a year or two, then perhaps such an investment strategy is not for you. And the reality is that whilst many investors might say that they would not panic, its only when it happens you will find out.
If one goes back to early 2009, after circa 2+ years of very negative fund performances (-20/30%) that was when lots of Managed Fund investors cut and ran, switching into Cash. And as it happened, March 2009 was the low point and markets picked up significantly in the following 5/6 year.
In my opinion, a 4%/5% drawdown rate is not unreasonable. But the other side of the coin is how you will invest the fund. If Cash, then your fund value will gradually deplete over time. You can still draw down 4%/5%, but that will be a gradually reducing amount. But with no investment risk you can sleep easier.
There are a number of calculation models you can use to show how long the fund might last based on different levels of drawdown and different rates of return. Perhaps seek professional advice.