Hello,
This could be great, or a complete disaster.... with the key concern being if it is a disaster, ultimately the State gets to pick up the tab. As such, the venture needs to be properly structured and run from Day 1, with proper expertise either hired well in advance or else brought in by way of a joint venture with an experienced and respected bank.
It seems to be that the joint venture is the better option. We could tap into expertise and experience within the industry, rather than see An Post try to shuffle staff without relevant experience into roles they may not be properly trained for or want to do, alongside seeing them try to hire people and perhaps not get the recruitment right in terms of the people they hire or the time given to establish the proper staff base.
The venture needs to be entirely "ring fenced" from An Post, other than for initial equity injection and ideally with investment also coming in from elsewhere - preferably from a banking partner (someone not operating in the Irish retail market) and perhaps other sources (part floatation, pension funds etc).
Could An Post partner with the likes of the Irish League of Credit Unions to provide loans through the local credit unions for example (granted the credit unions are independent, but with consolidation under way in the credit union sector and the Central Bank now trying to get a proper grip on them for regulatory purposes, future potential exists - albeit closer to 5year away than 1year away) ?
There is a massive branch network available through An Post nationwide and while this offers great potential, we also need to be very clear when we remember that the staff working at the counters of these post offices generally are not trained or experienced to sell various financial products. As such, either massive retraining needs to take place, or else some form of recruitment drive to bring in properly trained and experiened people.
All in all, I think the risks are quite high for An Post and while it has great potential (particularly if they can replicate the way the British Post Office and Bank of Ireland successfully work together), it also has the risk of being a massive cost and that cost will ultimately be for the State, if we have to bail on An Post out of a financial mess in a few years time.