Alan Dukes making very odd statements

Alan Dukes has been a bit of a loose cannon recently with strange remarks which don't seem to be substantiated.

He said that there was a wave of mortgage defaults coming, although he has no specialist knowledge in the area.

Yesterday , he said that NAMA would need €75 billion although there is no evidence for this either? Here is NAMA's reply as reported in the Irish Times

The agency said it had already acquired loans with a value of €71.2 billion for €30.2 billion and will take on an additional €5 billion under the original Nama plan.
As part of the Nama Amendment Bill, recently published by the Government, Nama can also now acquire land and development loans of less than €20 million from Bank of Ireland and AIB. Some €12 billion in additional loans are covered by this.
"The overall consideration for the €88 billion portfolio is therefore likely to be €37 billion approximately," the statement said.

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I am afraid poor Alan is suffering from what is commonly known as Stockholm Syndrome. He has required an attachment to the bank and can't let go he is clinging on for dear life to a dying Bank . He will have to go counseling and be thoroughly debriefed before he can be let loose on the business community again.

As chariman and a director of Anglo what are his duties and responsibilities?

Does Anglo employ any PR firm to ensure that everything that emanates from the organisation is "on message"?

Hi AJ

A director has a responsibility to the members normally. However, I think that there is a bit of a conflict for public interest directors.

As long as he is doing his Anglo duties ok, he is probably free to talk about anything else he wants. The problem is that people assume that he is well informed, when he doesn't appear to be.

Brendan

The thing is he is right about the mortgage defaults. It is happening.

High Time

Check out what he said.

We all know it is happening, but he claimed it was going to be massive. He quoted Morgan Kelly's ridiculous figures without either of them doing any analysis to back it up.

Yes, very strange comments from such a stout fellow.

If you didn't know any better, you'ld swear all of those lunatics like Kelly and Matthews were on to something.

But the figures for defaults are going to be massive? I've read many articles about the amount of people in default by x months and y months. The only thing holding it back is a) the banks going easy at the beginning due to not wanted to be 'evictors' b) the banks going easy due to the new rules on defaulters c) the length of time it takes to get to court d) banks wanting to hide the true number of property they have acquired as it might further affect the downward spiral of house prices e) the banks trying to ride out the storm in the hope that the bottom has been reached f) the banks waiting in case the borrowers can come up with something, new job, money from parents anything, as they the bank doens't want the properties and g) the NAMA acquired property which is not on the market yet. For the first time we have heard of one bank getting real and that's Bank of Scotland. What are the other banks going to do they cannot continue indefinitely with interest only, with capitalising arrears, with lower than interest only etc.

Has Alan Dukes been vindicated with the headline in todays Sunday Independent. Its reported that after the stress test the banks are a further €25 billion in the hole.

Ireland's financial future has been dealt a massive blow as a further black hole of up to €25bn in the Irish banks has emerged as part of the Government's stress testing.

Senior government sources have confirmed to this newspaper that the stress-testing process will show that the state of the banks' balance sheets is "considerably worse" than previously thought.

News that Ireland will need substantially more money from the IMF/EU to address the crisis in the banks is a blow to Taoiseach Enda Kenny's hopes to get a better deal at the EU summit later this month.




There seems to be no end in sight to the financial tsumani that is engulfing Ireland and the banking industry.
(I am assuming that the stress test also looked at potential mortgage defaults also)

The_Banker said:

Has Alan Dukes been vindicated with the headline in todays Sunday Independent. Its reported that after the stress test the banks are a further €25 billion in the hole.

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It doesn't take any great intellect or research to form the opinion that there is a further wave of banking losses on the way due to the fire sale of loan books and the full realisation of the losses in the residential mortgage market.

The original expectation was that a further €10bn would shore up the banks. The EU/IMF deal had provided for up to €35bn and now it's expected the stress tests will show a requirement a lot closer to the €35bn than the €10bn.

Are we surprised? I hope not.

Can we now talk about how we are to deal with cumulative banking losses closer to €80bn rather than €40bn? I hope so.