Absolute return funds the US experience

Marc

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The following article was written by Larry Swedroe on his CBS Money blog and has not been edited at all. Irish investors should note that arguments relating to internal fund taxation relating to long term and short term capital gains tax distributions is not relevant from an Irish taxation perspective.



Absolute return funds fail to deliver
July 12, 2012
by CBNews.com

(MoneyWatch) Investors would love to be able to achieve positive returns in both bull and bear markets. That's the "promise," or at least the idea behind, absolute return funds. The devastating bear market of 2008 increased the demand for these funds. Wall Street is happy to meet that demand with its usual array of high cost vehicles. Morningstar recently reported that since the 2008 crisis,*28 absolute return funds were launched, bringing the total to 41 with an astounding $11.1 billion of assets. Unfortunately, there's a Oreason that the old saying "if sounds too good to be true, it almost certainly is" is a cliché.
Absolute return funds try to accomplish their objective using a wide various strategies. While some invest primarily in stocks and bonds, others use commodities, short selling, futures, options and other derivatives, arbitrage strategies, currencies, credit risk, leverage, and almost anything else you can dream up. That's one of the many problems with these funds -- you just don't know what they own and what risks you're exposed to. Another problem is that the term absolute return is an oxymoron (the only truly absolute return vehicles are a one-month Treasury bill or an equivalent FDIC insured deposit).

Morningstar's analysis of these vehicles found that of the 25 absolute return funds that were launched before 2011, just nine (36 percent) provided positive returns. And this occurred during a year when the S&P 500 Index, the Russell 3000 Index and all major bond indexes produced positive returns! This was virtually the same result that occurred in the 2008 bear market when just nine of the 26 (35 percent) absolute return funds generated positive returns. Morningstar also noted that the absolute return funds that use a long/short strategy (the idea is to have no exposure to the overall risk of the market) still managed to lose an average of 15.4 percent in 2008 -- while better than the market's loss of 37 percent, it's not even close to an absolute return.

One reason for the poor results is that despite claims of having uncorrelated returns (the only way you can produce absolute returns), Morningstar found that about half the absolute return funds with at least a one-year record had a correlation with the S&P 500 greater than 0.6. In other words, they were stock-like strategies carrying much of the risks of stocks. On the bond side, Morningstar found that more than 40 percent of the absolute return funds had a correlation of 0.6 or higher with the Barclays Capital Global High Yield Index. In other words, they were basically credit risk strategies. The implications are that there's really nothing unique about these strategies -- to a great degree their results are explained by exposure to benchmarks (which investors can obtain at low costs).

Other reasons for the poor results are high expense ratios and high turnover. Sixty percent of the funds had expense ratios greater than 1.5 percent, and more than half had turnover rates in excess of 100 percent. And those that engage in long-short strategies have the added burden of the costs of borrowing stock.

But, we're not done yet, as the high turnover rates lead to tax inefficiency. Because most trade so often, the funds are not likely to provide most of their returns in the form of long-term capital gains distributions (if they ever make any money). More likely, a large percentage of their returns will be taxed at the higher short-term capital gains and ordinary income tax rates.

The Hedge Fund World
We can also look at the results of vehicles that use absolute return strategies by examining the data provided by hedgefundresearch.com. Despite the term absolute return in their name, the HFRX Absolute Return Index has lost 0.2 percent for the first six months of 2012. This comes on the heels of four straight years of losses:

Loss of 3.7 percent in 2011 Loss of 0.1 percent in 2010 Loss of 3.6 percent in 2009 Loss of 13.1 percent in 2008
Thus, we can conclude that absolute return funds have demonstrated the ability to lose money in both bull and bear markets. The only thing absolute about these funds is how absolutely bad they are. And while mutual funds that use absolute return strategies are expensive, they're cheap by hedge fund standards, with their typical fee structure of 2/20 (2 percent annual fee plus 20 percent of the profits).

The conclusion we can draw is that the so-called "advantage" of the freedom to choose from a wide range of investments doesn't translate into real world benefits. This is because their strategies are costly to implement, and the market is highly efficient at setting prices.

The bottom line is that no one should invest in absolute return vehicles because they aren't absolute return vehicles, but relative return vehicles. They're just another way Wall Street has found to transfer money from your wallet to theirs.
 
Thank you for that, but could you please translate that into common day English. Double Dutch to me, and I can do the IT Cryptic Crossword in less than 30 minutes, usually. Need to ground the article with a few relevant examples, but thank you anyway.
 
All this tells me is that the US marker has been badly served by the choice of Absolute Return funds offered there. Here in Ireland we have far fewer AR funds to choose from, but they seem to be of better quality. The returns on, say, the Standard Life GARS fund or the BNY Mellon Real Return fund available from New Ireland have been far better than the returns quoted in this article.
 
Dave,

If that was really true I wouldn't be able to do this so easily...

[broken link removed]

What matters for investors is the net exposure to risk and in this case (despite all the fancy marketing) it looks to me like a net 40% exposure to real assets and 60% exposure to cash and fixed interest.

I have therefore suggested that Absolute Return funds are the Emperor's new clothes.

I did a similar analysis for BNY Mellon's absolute return and guess what? Same result

[broken link removed]
 
I think you'll find that most investors are more interested in what the returns are.

Standard Life GARS to 30/6/2012: -

  • YTD +4.14%
  • 1 year +9.96%
  • Annualised since launch +9.51% per year
Compare these with the returns quoted in the article above for the HFRX Absolute Return Index and it just proves my point. Not all Absolute Return funds are the same.
 
Dave,

I "absolutely" agree with you. But of course the HFRX is a hedge fund index and does not relate to retail absolute return funds. It is in there as a comparison to illustrate the point that hedge funds also underperform a simple buy and hold strategy.

I also agree with you that many investors (and their advisers seemingly) are more interested in past performance despite the required regulatory warning that it is no guarantee of future performance.

Still it doesn't stop some of us from trying to explain what really matters in investing.
 
But of course the HFRX is a hedge fund index and does not relate to retail absolute return funds.

Yet you posted an article that quotes the HFRX Absolute Return Index in a post that you titled "Absolute return funds the US experience".


I also agree with you that many investors (and their advisers seemingly) are more interested in past performance despite the required regualtory warning that it is no guarantee of future performance.

Still it doesn't stop some of us from trying to explain what really matters in investing.

Oh come now. You post an article that publishes past performance figures of a US index and yet when I post figures from a fund that's actually available here in Ireland, you're suggesting that they don't matter.

You can't have it both ways Marc.
 
Yes, some hedge funds apply similar strategies to absolute return funds but charge very high fees resulting in poor investor experiences this is much of the argument against absolute return funds and therefore the comparison is valid. Although I will point out that I reproduced the original article in full without editing it so we could say that the hedge fund reference is a distraction in an otherwise valid debate.

The past performance data relates to the failure of an average fund to deliver excess returns above those available for a given level of risk that is available to an investor from an index strategy. Equally , we often hear the time weighted returns of a fund since launch but money weighted returns are rarely reported. Said differently, how many people invested at the launch compared to how many people invested in say the last 18 months? The returns that most people earn are not the same as those reported in the marketing material.

I don't dispute the return figures you provided but my point is that an investor could have had those returns from a simple index strategy as I have already proved.

Absolute return funds are being sold on the basis of these past performance numbers but we have too little data to be certain that this is due to skill rather than luck (the subject of a previous post on this matter)

So with respect, I'm not having it both ways I'm questioning a racket based on a combination of bad benchmarking by the fund managers and a poor understanding of statistics by many advisers and their clients. We don't yet know if the current fad for absolute return funds will lead to bad outcomes for consumers but let's hope not seeing as so few people seem to be willing to say if it looks and quacks like a duck then it's probably a duck.
 
Absolute Return

I think an important point which should be borne in mind in any critique of absolute returns is that they set out with performance and volatility objectives which are much more in line with what individual investors want.In the case of GARS cash + 5% gross over rolling 3 year periods with volatility between 6 and 8% is an investor's dream is it not?

Even if they come up short it may be a more attractive proposition than telling investors that they can expect a return of whatever markets deliver (in the case of equities more of less zero over the last 12/13 years) at whatever volatility the markets serve up. Obviously if Standard Life come up a long way short that is a different matter and certainly the aggregate performance of hedge/absolute funds is bad.
 
I think an important point which should be borne in mind in any critique of absolute returns is that they set out with performance and volatility objectives which are much more in line with what individual investors want.

which they can achieve through a long only equity/bond portfolio of index funds in a mix that is appropriate for their need, willingness and capacity for risk. No need for active management, no need for derivatives, counterparty risks etc
 
Thus, we can conclude that absolute return funds have demonstrated the ability to lose money in both bull and bear markets.

That's a sloppy generalisation tbh. If I were to envisage investing in an Absolute Returns Fund it would have to be a Managed Futures CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) that has that goal (AR) in mind. Particularly one which employs a systematic trend following approach. Over the long term they have been profitable but you're attitude to risk is paramount, particularly as the top funds experience large drawdowns.
 
Are the GARS returns posted above net of tax,annual management fees and any other hidden fees that might apply.?
 
And what is it that most long only equity-based portfolios have "achieved" for investors over long periods of the last decade or so Marc?

A serious lack of return with huge drawdowns. Not a result in return or risk terms.
 
Are the GARS returns posted above net of tax,annual management fees and any other hidden fees that might apply.?

No. They are figures of the performance of the GARS fund. The tax treatment will depend on what product you choose. The charges will also depend on what product you choose AND where you go to purchase that product. Intermediaries have discretion over what charges to apply. So it would be impossible to quote fund returns that cover all tax or charging variations.
 
And what is it that most long only equity-based portfolios have "achieved" for investors over long periods of the last decade or so Marc?

A serious lack of return with huge drawdowns. Not a result in return or risk terms.

The Western indexes are in a SECULAR bear market. A long grind sideways from the overvalued and speculative bubble of 2000. A bubble that peaked on the highest P/E in history.

Empirical evidence shows that secular bear markets have typically lasted much longer than the 12 years since the last secular bull market popped on each occassion.

The USA indexes are still way overvauled on a CAPE basis compared to the level that all previous historical secular bear markets have ended and commenced a new secular bull.

Time to stay defensive in value stocks.
 
Wow! This is turning into a great debate.
Some points to address here:
Firstly, @Managed Futures
This is a fairly good critique of the Managed Futures CTA.
[broken link removed]

"Speculators..are part of a game that has a zero sum outcome and provides no insurance benefit."

@ Monksfield

I don't recommend Managed funds and my proposition is that Absolute Return funds are just Managed Funds with a new marketing slant.

So, I agree that a typical Irish Managed Fund with an overweight bet on Irish Stocks would have performed poorly over the last 10 or so years. But, I have not and never would have put all my clients into managed funds. I also would never have bought into the "consensus" marketing story either.

But, I accept that this is what was being sold and hence the comment is valid in an Irish context. I suppose the question that should be answered is based on my proposition that any investor could have choosen a risk appropriate portfolio of index funds or slightly more damning for the financial services industry in Ireland should have been advised to follow this course of action.

So, the question we could pose is this, "how would an investor who ignored the marketing spin of the product selling financial services companies fared?" Let's ignore the Tech craze, the property craze, the Irish Bank shares and let's not sell everthing and go to cash in 2008. But instead, let's buy a globally diversified portfolio of low cost index funds and see how we did through all that from Jan 1999 through to the end of 2011?


To address the comment about drawdown's I will also list the worst one year return:
These are portfolios with no active management, no long-short strategies, just a strategic asset allocation of indexes of stocks, bonds and real estate annually rebalanced.

Portfolio Average annual return Worst one year return
Cautious 4.83%pa -1.15%
20% Risk 4.89%pa -4.22%
30% Risk 5.13%pa -9.13%
40% Risk 5.71%pa -14.79%
50% Risk 6.58%pa -19.44%
60% Risk 7.21%pa -24.42%
70% Risk 7.43%pa -28.88%
80% Risk 8.10%pa -33.81%
90% Risk 8.64%pa -38.16%
98% Risk 8.72%pa -41.36%


For reference:
MSCI World 2.04%pa -39.11%
MSCI Emerging Markets 11.77%pa -50.57%
MSCI Ireland (gross div) -7.66%pa -71.40%

Just as an interesting historical aside the BYN Mellon Absolute Return fund used to be called the Newton Real Return Fund. I had a look at the performance of the original fund in Sterling and found the worst 1 year return. Any ideas? The worst one year return was -34.01% for the 12 months ended March 2003. Source: Bloomberg.


The goal of every investor is to select the portfolio that most closely matches their willingness for risk (that's the drawdown number) their capacity for risk (that's a function of their age, net worth, income ect) and need (that's the expected average annual return that they need to achieve to meet their financial goals.

Matching investors with portfolios based on need. That's the job of the professional adviser - not selling the latest product craze.

Finally, @Ringledman the perpetual SECULAR bear. Unfortunately the evidence doesn't support the statement:

All returns in Euro Jan 2000 to May 2012
Global Core Equity Index 1.58%pa
Global Small Equity Index 4.24%pa
Global Small Value Index 7.66%pa
S&P Global REITS 7.59%pa
Emerging Markets Value Index 11.69%pa

Source: DFA
Note that the Global Indicies above have an allocation of approx 51% USA, 10%UK, 5% Canada, 10% France/Germany/Switzerland so that's what 76% at least invested in the "western indexes" these are just market cap weights, no fortune telling crystal ball gazing, just let the market allocate resources efficiently.

So the way I sort stocks which is based on risk, I have had extremely positive returns from equities even since the supposed secular bear started in 2000.

A simple market cap weighted portfolio of 85% developed equities and 15% Emerging Market equities with a small and value tilt has produced perfectly acceptable positive returns.

There are no bears here boo boo!
 
Spirited defence Marc but its central pillar is the huge drawdown of the BNY Mellon fund. You either do know better or should know - that is not an AR fund in any commonly understood meaning of that term.

To use GARS again(a proper AR fund) its maximum drawdown was around 13% (don't have the precise data to hand) with volatility of c.7%. This is I would guess,half the volatility of any of the more aggressive strategies to which you refer.
 
OK fair comment on the BNY fund, it was more of a managed fund before it was renamed. I just wanted to highlight the need to look at the full picture. Remember that a "typical" managed fund will have an allocation to equities of 60% to 70%. Fund managers can reduce the risk of a fund simply by reducing the exposure to equities (the cautious managed fund and also Distribution Funds in the UK have been around for some time). Absolute return funds could just be low risk managed funds with a fancy marketing spin - GARS for example has a net exposure to real assets of around 40% supporting this line of reasoning.

So, since you raise the question, let's look at GARS. I have the UK Institutional class data here and the worst drawdown based on monthly data was -7.83% for the one year ended Oct 2008. There may be slightly worse periods by using daily data but this works well enough.

In my book from a marketing perspective "absolute return" implies "always positive returns" from the perspective of a consumer. If you can sell prospective investors on the myth that you can always produce positive returns from a low risk strategy, they won't really look much further.

But a one year drawdown of this magnitude can hardly be described as always positive and my guess is that a significant number of current Irish investors and probably their advisers do not know that this sort of one year loss has happened to GARS and my guess why this might be is that the Euro version wasn't available in November 2007 and so this information isn't reflected in the marketing material.

As an observation the first post on this thread points out that Morningstar identified a large proportion of absolute return funds had correlations of greater than 0.6 in relation to an underlying index return.

GARS has a correlation of 0.63 compared to their own European Corporate Bond Fund over the last 3 years.

Most of the returns can be explained from exposure to the underlying risk factors. The derivative strategies add an extra layer of complexity to the analysis (and costs to the clients) but overall these are just bets. Some will win and some will lose. Overall the expected return from speculation is zero before costs and negative after costs. So, the longer an absolute return fund is in existance the more the underlying long exposure will drive returns, the bets should net out to zero, add costs and detract from returns.

As I have already observed we won't know for sure if this will happen but we would need about 130 years of data to be certain that good returns were nothing more than luck.
 
Finally, @Ringledman the perpetual SECULAR bear. Unfortunately the evidence doesn't support the statement:

Unfortunately for the index trackers it does –

http://alphahunt.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/dow-jones-historical-trends1.png

For the market to go on a bull run from here when the market topped out in 2000 on the highest P/E in history and has only regressed 12 years when the past 3 secular bear markets all lasted between 17 and 25 years?

Secular market lows end on single digit P/E multiples. This is what empirical evidence shows.

Secular markets are defined by the market grinding sideways as P/E multiples fall from the 'speculative', 'irrational' bubble top and down to 'forgotten' and 'unloved' asset classes.

Rather than concoct a theory such as the EMH to prove the basis of index investing 'at any time' I would rather base my judgement on history and the movement of the valuation of the market over time.

I suggest the CAPE as the best measure. Europe is close to bottoming, however P/E's can stay low for years-

http://valuestockinquisition.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/sg-europe-pe.png

The US is nowhere near regressing from the largest bubble in history of 2000-

http://www.theblakeleygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/f2june12.jpg

Economics has moved on from the EMH in which it will give you the only free lunch in investing.

One should delve into the word of Grantham, Montier et al and the secular cycles theory, bubble theory etc. A whole world of behavioral investment theory that is kicking the EMH into the long grass.

time to stay defensive in the less volatile and less risk value sectors.
 
Ringledman,

Your first link is to the Dow Jones. This is made up of just 30 US stocks and is not even market cap weighted but selected by a committee. This has absolutely no bearing on my arguments which clearly show a range of indexes with positive returns and which you seemingly choose to ignore.

There are 5000 stocks on the NYSE. The Dow therefore isnt a meaningful representation of even the US market let alone Western indexes. Just because it is widely followed doesn't make it representative.

You can't make a general comment like "western indexes are in a secular bear market" and then submit an index of just 30 stocks as your proof.
 
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