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blindjustice
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"GHOST ESTATES" -----------WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Genuinely scary
Genuinely scary
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thewatcher
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Some mortgage lenders are obviously prepared to destroy this country all in the name of profit,they should be stopped.
They must have the belief that the government will bail them out when the apocalypse comes,what was it gordon gekko said "greed is good".
Won't somebody please think of the children !
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blindjustice
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Won't somebody please think of the children !
oh the humanity of it all...............
The Horror!
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MadPad
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I'm shocked that a mortgage provider would dare float an idea like that in public. Its a definite sign that the increases are starting to bite...
Surely theres somebody in management positions in these outfits over the age of 25 who can at least remember rates before 2001.
Maybe the regulator could call their bluff, if they dont want to stress test, maybe that provider would like to offer a 30 year fixed rate at todays rate, with no exit penalties?
Sherry Fitz out with figures saying that the market is entering a 'soft landing' phase. They indicate that the figures for Dublin are less than the rest of the country which I thought was remarkable.
Their CEO was interviewed on Morning Ireland trying to allay fears of a slowdown. He didn't sound very convincing. The interviewer pressed him on why one would buy now if stamp duty could be abolished in the future.
http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1002/houses.html
Their CEO was interviewed on Morning Ireland trying to allay fears of a slowdown. He didn't sound very convincing. The interviewer pressed him on why one would buy now if stamp duty could be abolished in the future.
http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1002/houses.html
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phoenix_n
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Yeah heard that this morning. But passengers sit tight, the plane has not soft landed but stalled and if you like to look out your windows you can see we are still 40% above ground.
One point I don't fully understand about the "soft landing" theory is:
why would anyone buy into it now? Yields do not appear to be sufficient relative to costs of the properties, and as there is no capital appreciation, buying in doesn't make sense.
If there are no buyers, then the properties are not worth what they are currently "valued" at - and must fall to a point where the percentage yield is corrected (wherever that might be).
why would anyone buy into it now? Yields do not appear to be sufficient relative to costs of the properties, and as there is no capital appreciation, buying in doesn't make sense.
If there are no buyers, then the properties are not worth what they are currently "valued" at - and must fall to a point where the percentage yield is corrected (wherever that might be).
It doesn't make any sense whatsoever for someone to buy now but I can't see them falling to a price where a sensible yield can be derived (~6%) in the short term unless there is a drastic increase in rents which isn't going to happen.
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StoppedClock
Guest
We might not see prices falling to give a sensible yield of 6% but I can certainly see them falling to give a yield of a little over (+1%) the interest rates whatever that may be.
Amongst my circle of friends we have moved from denial that prices could ever drop (because falling house prices would ruin the economy and that can't happen), through grudging acceptance that they may drop, then throught realisation that they will drop and now as people percieve that they may have started dropping some have gone a stage further and are now considering selling up and emigrating (because falling house prices would ruin the economy) and they can trouser a healthy profit now. No STR's (yet). It's all sentiment and it is changing, the only way it can be avoided if the VI's mount one hell of an offence and can some how turn people around. So far the response have been very weak and makes me think they were unprepared for the speed of the change, also makes me feel a little sorry for them because it appears they actually belived there own hype.
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phoenix_n
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yes but you have to factor in that sometimes people really have to sell. moving overseas, moving county, can't afford repayments,separation etc. Called 'stressed vendors' and is really where prices will take that noticeable drop first. As a side note if you really have to buy then this is your first criteria; not a kitchen extension but a stressed vendor.
Surprise! DNG are out contradicting Sherry Fitz saying they expect house prices to fall (less than 5%) in the second quarter next year.
Read it in the Indo this morning. I'll see if I can find a link.
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plaudit
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Clip from Indo:
Douglas Newman Good, which will publish a report on house prices today, said prices could fall in the second quarter of next year.
Rival Sherry FitzGerald is not only predicting that growth will continue, but said growth levels next year will be even greater than those experienced at present.
DNG are possibly attempting to 'manage' their client's expectations in a slowing market (estate agents make money/ survive on volume). Sherry FitzGerald seem to be 'true believers' they will probably stick to their guns until falling volumes start eating into their bottom line.
There is a article in the current Irish Property Buyer which Marian Finnegan says that now is a good time to buy. Surely she has lost all credibility at this stage.
What an interesting year 2006 is turning out to be.
It started by giving us one of the most severe periods for house price inflation recorded and the latter part may be presenting a boom turning to bust.
That early lending frenzy and last great price push turned out an extraordinary stroke of good-luck - or something! - for any smarties who sold their property portfolios before the current slowdown.
It started by giving us one of the most severe periods for house price inflation recorded and the latter part may be presenting a boom turning to bust.
That early lending frenzy and last great price push turned out an extraordinary stroke of good-luck - or something! - for any smarties who sold their property portfolios before the current slowdown.
DNG are notorious for gaining clients by touting higher asking prices than their rivals. In fact, they frequently boast of achieving higher sales prices than any agent in a given area (which begs the question - who would buy from them?). This tactic was probably extraordinarily successful in a booming market but is no doubt killing them since the market started to weaken.
Clearly, DNG have quickly grasped the new reality but SherryFitz have a steep learning curve ahead.
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plaudit
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I think it works like this. I have a house for sale and so does my neighbour. I go to SF and DNG (so does my neighbour) SF say its worth €400K, DNG say its worth €420K. I go with DNG the neighbour goes with SF. The neighbours house sells first (because its cheaper), but because the prices are rising by 10% per year anyway, my house sells 6 months later for €420K, I just have to wait a little longer.
Like you said, works well in a rising market when exaggerated prices now become normal prices in 6 months.
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