Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Remix]

The Irish Times will remain bullish - it has put alot of its eggs in the property basket.

Here's the [broken link removed]of the Irish Times (emphasis mine):

"to publish an independent newspaper primarily concerned with serious issues for the benefit of the community throughout the whole of Ireland free from any form of personal or of party political, commercial, religious or other sectional control".

Hmmm.

 

[Duplex]

To keep the plane analogy going, the plane may be stalling, but as long as the pretty hostesses keep lashing out the free booze to politicians and developers, noone will care!

Well the pilot is reaching for his parachute, the politicians in the back have theirs firmly strapped on and are backing towards the door and the hostess is announcing to the rest of the passengers over the p.a. that she's just discovered that there aren't anymore chutes.

 

[Duplex]

Here's the [broken link removed]of the Irish Times (emphasis mine):

"to publish an independent newspaper primarily concerned with serious issues for the benefit of the community throughout the whole of Ireland free from any form of personal or of party political, commercial, religious or other sectional control".

Hmmm.

And guess who is on both the Trust and Board of The Irish Times............

David Went,
Group Chief Executive,
Irish Life & Permanent.

Well, well, well. There's a surprise.




[broken link removed]

 

[phoenix_n]

The Irish times will report on the facts as the pertain. To do otherwise would risk more than an investment in myhome.ie !

 

[Remix]

And guess who is on both the Trust and Board of The Irish Times............

Excellent stuff !

The flying analogy reminds me of the gag in the movie "Airplane" when the hostess asks the passengers to assume crash positions. When she looks back she sees the passengers spread over the floor, upside down on seats etc. - all in their crash positions.

Property interests of Ireland: assume crash positions !

 

[bearishbull]

Just saw the front page of the Indo in the shop, some guy saw the headline and looked a bit worried and picked up the paper to read it,i then left. A few more months of headlines like this and sentiment will change even more significantly than it has to date.

Maybe someone should write to geraldine kenny or whatever her name is and get reassurances that the irish times won't shy avoid from reporting the facts in the property market.

 

[Persius]

I think many posters are being too harsh on the Irish Times. It's true that it hasn't run any overtly negative articles on Irish property. And it's true that their headlines have a more positive spin than the Indo. However if you read the content of their articles, then it is quite balanced IMHO.

Again it is true that some articles are just "reporting the news". So if some economist makes a big press statement, the IT reports it. However when they do feature pieces, or opinion or editorial pieces, then there is usually a good balance. Some examples in today's paper would include the article from Edel Morgan in the property supliment about courses in property investments. She clearly states that it may be too late to bank on making money on Irish property. Similarly the "worth the investment" piece has clearly stated for months now that rents only barely cover IO mortgages

In another suplement in the paper a London developer wonders where the Irish are getting all the money to invest in property in London. The journalist (forget who) states that it is coming on the back of rising values of people's PPR, allowing them to borrow huge sums. She then clearly states that this is a very risky thing to do, and doesn't recommend it.

In an editorial the other day, the IT also warned of stagnant or even falling prices.

The bottom line is that the Indo is going for dramatic headlines whilst the actual market is still hanging on the edge. The IT will only start printing dramatic headlines when we experience dramatic events - e.g. real substantial falls in house prices, real increases in builders going bust, real rising unemployment. In the meantime many journalists may already be bracing themselves for the impending explosion. But as it hasn't actually happened it isn't news yet.

Anyone who reads the IT, as distinct from just scanning the headlines, will know that all is not rosy in the property garden. These people should be able to come to their own conclusions and don't need spectacularly negative headlines.

Disclaimers:
I've no relationship to the IT (but I do think it's a good paper)
I've no vested interest in seeing the property boom continuing, but expect it to do so into mid 2007.

 

[room305]

The Independent might be doing the country a service by hyping up a property crash before it actually happens. The more weary people are, the less likely they are to engage in reckless behaviour. Someone had to call it and I'm glad they did.

Funnily, if they are negative enough in their comments, they may help engineer the "soft landing" scenario (unlikely but possible).

Although I'm sure their bearishness (compared to the rest of the media here) has not gone unnoticed by the developer's party, Fianna Fail. Think they've got a good scapegoat there if things go the way of the U.S.

 

[phoenix_n]

Reduced from to [broken link removed]. Its bad stock but as supply increases this is where you notice the changes first.

 

[whathome]

This house reduced by €1,000,000 ...

Any takers?

Was €8,500,000:


Now only €7,500,000
[broken link removed]=

 

[CelloPoint]

Great analogies lads

Stalling, Super Novae, and boiling frogs. Expect to see them reprinted in the Sunday property suppliments !

How about canaries in the gold mine, tsunamis and potatoe famine?

Copyright, CelloPoint, 2006.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com//showpost.php?p=255326&postcount=1372
http://www.askaboutmoney.com//showpost.php?p=261516&postcount=2272
http://www.askaboutmoney.com//showpost.php?p=266067&postcount=2765

Gee the server seems to be having a bit of a hard time today - this thread has grown into a bit of a Frankenstein - it seems to be getting even more popular. We're heading for 200k hits faster than the first 100k hits. Even the main-stream media are reading this thread!

Poor 2Pack appears to have been banned. Anyone know why?

 

[miju]

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Interest rate hikes put the brakes on house spree[/FONT]
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1683365&issue_id=14609

in addition to this did anyone see the article in page 21 todays independant about the award winning construction company Delta Homes which went into recievership yesterday citing a decline in their core market as the main reason

just to pick at the figures they provided

28% of mortgages are for 2nd time buyers
21% are FTB
19% are investors with the rest of the percentage made up of people topping up mortgages / refinancing

with the peak in the market being / close to being called one would only imagine that the percentage of investors will drop further as capital appreciation pretty much becomes negligible , now couple that with affordability being a major concern for FTB hypotethically the figues early next year could look like the following

28% of mortgages are for 2nd time buyers
15-19% are FTB
5-9% are investors with the rest of the percentage made up of people topping up mortgages / refinancing

the figures above leaves an overhang and effectively turns the market into a buyers market which will lead to stagflation AT BEST , not a pretty picture





possibly an isolated incident possibly not , either way I feel sorry for the 180 people whose jobs that were lost with Delta Homes yesterday in addition to the other 80 they laid off a few months ago

 

[Glenbhoy]

It's true that it hasn't run any overtly negative articles on Irish property.

In fairness, I think a lot of ye are getting a bit carried away. Can many of you tell me any negative stories on Irish property that should be carried?
Look at the stories that the Indo has carried, they're normally talking about how interest rate increases have added x/y/z to the average mortgage, great journalism alright, can't figure out how they manage to get all that research finished pre-pub.
I am believe it or not quite bearish, but the lot of you here are trying to say there's been a crash etc, the facts do not back up what you are saying, yeah you can trawl through various caches and find houses which have a lower asking price now than 3 months ago - but surely you know that asking price has little or no relevance to sales price - when you can start showing me houses consistently selling for less than others on the estate went for, then i'll believe.
I believe that the problem a lot of ye are having is that ye are starting to believe that the rest of the population think along similar lines to the participants on here, you all grasp at any straw that the real world may have finally been enlightened, "a guy a work said today that if interest rates rise by another 5%, he would consider getting an estate agent to value one of his 25 investment properties with a view to perhaps selling it (btw, he mentioned in passing that one of the properties was vacant for 4 days last year, he's going to have sell)" etc, and whilst obviously I'm exaggerating slightly, that is what it seems like at times.
Remember, just because you're wishing harder does not make it true (yet)!!
Enjoy ripping this post to pieces.

 

[whathome]

but the lot of you here are trying to say there's been a crash etc.

I think you'll find that there's only one person that said this here - and he's already explained his reasoning that once it's past tipping point, there's no way back.

when you can start showing me houses consistently selling for less than others on the estate went for, then i'll believe.

Fine - you can wait until the PTSB/ESRI reports then. Unfortunately the official reports come four months after market activity so reporting current market activity here is as close as anyone can get to showing how it is right now. Falling asking prices across many areas and price ranges are a very important indicator of weakness in the market. I know how much of a pain it is to lower my asking price, my house is now selling for less than the last identical one that sold in April.

 

[Duplex]

I think many posters are being too harsh on the Irish Times. It's true that it hasn't run any overtly negative articles on Irish property. And it's true that their headlines have a more positive spin than the Indo. However if you read the content of their articles, then it is quite balanced IMHO.

Again it is true that some articles are just "reporting the news". So if some economist makes a big press statement, the IT reports it. However when they do feature pieces, or opinion or editorial pieces, then there is usually a good balance. Some examples in today's paper would include the article from Edel Morgan in the property supliment about courses in property investments. She clearly states that it may be too late to bank on making money on Irish property. Similarly the "worth the investment" piece has clearly stated for months now that rents only barely cover IO mortgages

In another suplement in the paper a London developer wonders where the Irish are getting all the money to invest in property in London. The journalist (forget who) states that it is coming on the back of rising values of people's PPR, allowing them to borrow huge sums. She then clearly states that this is a very risky thing to do, and doesn't recommend it.

In an editorial the other day, the IT also warned of stagnant or even falling prices.

The bottom line is that the Indo is going for dramatic headlines whilst the actual market is still hanging on the edge. The IT will only start printing dramatic headlines when we experience dramatic events - e.g. real substantial falls in house prices, real increases in builders going bust, real rising unemployment. In the meantime many journalists may already be bracing themselves for the impending explosion. But as it hasn't actually happened it isn't news yet.

Anyone who reads the IT, as distinct from just scanning the headlines, will know that all is not rosy in the property garden. These people should be able to come to their own conclusions and don't need spectacularly negative headlines.

Disclaimers:
I've no relationship to the IT (but I do think it's a good paper)
I've no vested interest in seeing the property boom continuing, but expect it to do so into mid 2007.

There was an article in todays IT, by a woman discussing the US market. She advised that Irish buyers might want to steer clear of Florida as prices had fallen by 15%. (The IT has run several articles extolling the virtues of Floridian property previously, they weren't decent enough to issue a warning to their readers however when the market started to dive.)

Anyway this lady singled out Phoenix, Arizona as a possible alternative investment location for Irish investors scared away from Florida and other cooling markets. So to circumvent the need for her to publish an article in a couple of months telling her readers to avoid Phoenix I'll do that now. Avoid Phoenix prices are falling now.

 

[ivuernis]

In fairness, I think a lot of ye are getting a bit carried away. Can many of you tell me any negative stories on Irish property that should be carried?

I'm inclined to agree w.r.t. the recent reporting from the Irish Indo. This is
the same paper after all who's idea of "research" is to lift a quote directly
from this website and pronounce it as some sort of indication of a vast
swing in market sentiment amongst estate agents.


http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=271343&highlight=mad#post271343

 

[Duplex]

I'm inclined to agree w.r.t. the recent reporting from the Irish Indo. This is
the same paper after all who's idea of "research" is to lift a quote directly
from this website and pronounce it as some sort of indication of a vast
swing in market sentiment amongst estate agents.


http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=271343&highlight=mad#post271343

Well if you or Glenboy could come up with a cogent argument why you believe that a property bubble doesn't exist, I would be interested in reading it.

 

[phoenix_n]

I think you'll find that there's only one person that said this here - and he's already explained his reasoning that once it's past tipping point, there's no way back.

That'd be me. And I am not prone to exaggeration either.

I know how much of a pain it is to lower my asking price, my house is now selling for less than the last identical one that sold in April.

How are u finding the market ?

 

[BigM]

My own sentiment on house prices is that we are at a tipping point due to interest rates....I think people are "waiting and seeing"...if rates hold firm then I expect prices to rise by 3-5% over the next 12 months. If they rise by .25% I expect them to remain flat and if they rise by .5% I predict them to fall. Interest rate changes (like inflation) cause uncertaintity in the market resulting in a "look before you leap" mindset.

Do you mean an extra 25bps or 50bps in 2007? Because rates are absolutely going up 25bps on Oct 6th and (almost) definitely another 25bps on Dec 7th.

 

[ivuernis]

Well if you or Glenboy could come up with a cogent argument why you believe that a property bubble doesn't exist, I would be interested in reading it.

I do believe there is a property bubble and a have for quite a long time. I've been bearish on here since the beginning, except of late when I've been experiencing some pangs of bullishness which I'm at a loss to explain - I posted about this the other day w.r.t. the resolve of the Central Banks resolves to stay the course fighting inflation.

Just some of the reporting in the media of late irks me somewhat more than anything else.