Budget win for pensioners as Heather Humphreys seeks €15 a week pension increase, while pushing back on Jobseeker’s rise

It is reckoned that by 2028, the PRSI increases will provide an additional 1.6bn per annum to the Social Insurance Fund.
There might be further increases beyond 2028.
Will the proposed increase to the weekly pension cost more than 1.6bn per annum?
 
Will the proposed increase to the weekly pension cost more than 1.6bn per annum?
The increasing number of people receiving it, the increasing proportion of people receiving it and the increasing amount of time people are receiving it will dwarf that €1.6 billion.
 
Hello,

I think the starting point is with a form of means testing, for anyone looking for a pension increase.

As an interim measure, let's help the elderly who need help, but not those who don't.

To keep things simple, in the shorter term, the elderly could make an annual self declaration as to their income and personal assets (excl. their personal residence). Anyone up to certain, specified, limits, gets the additional payment, but the others don't.

That could be an interim solution for say the next 10-years, while better longer term arrangements are put in place.

Ultimately, the plan would be to freeze all state pensions, with people getting plenty of lead in time, to start making their own arrangements.

Means-testing penalises saving. Do you want to encourage saving or not?
 
It is reckoned that by 2028, the PRSI increases will provide an additional 1.6bn per annum to the Social Insurance Fund.
There might be further increases beyond 2028.
Pension contribution in Germany is currently 18.6%. This is shared 50/50 between employer and employee. It will go up to 22% in the next 3 years- and this is still not enough to keep the state pension stable. It will probably go to 25% by 2030.
Pension age will be raised to 68 by 2028- but will probably go higher to 70 by 2035- or earlier.
Contributory state pension schemes are under severe pressure all over the globe due to the boomers retiring and not enough contributors following to fill the gaps.
Since the beginning of the year we have the choice when to retire- somewhere between 66 and 70. I think this will be changed again. Pension age will slowly reach 70. PRSI contributions will go up to previously unthinkable levels. And all "credits"- with the exception of the carer or homemaker ones- will be abolished over time. They might open up the possibility for voluntary contributions right from year one of entering the labour force- but at very high payment levels. There is no other way to save the contributory pension scheme.
Only a government with a strong and stable majority will be able to do this- right at the beginning of its term. Otherwise it won't be able to undertake those needed changes.
 
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Pension contribution in Germany is currently 18.6%. This is shared 50/50 between employer and employee. It will go up to 22% in the next 3 years- and this is still not enough to keep the state pension stable. It will probably go to 25% by 2030.
Pension age will be raised to 68 by 2028- but will probably go higher to 70 by 2035- or earlier.
Contributory state pension schemes are under severe pressure all over the globe due to the boomers retiring and not enough contributors following to fill the gaps.
Since the beginning of the year we have the choice when to retire- somewhere between 66 and 70. I think this will be changed again. Pension age will slowly reach 70. PRSI contributions will go up to previously unthinkable levels. And all "credits"- with the exception of the carer or homemaker ones- will be abolished over time. They might open up the possibility for voluntary contributions right from year one of entering the labour force- but at very high payment levels. There is no other way to save the contributory pension scheme.
Only a government with a strong and stable majority will be able to do this- right at the beginning of its term. Otherwise it won't be able to undertake those needed changes.

Is that Germany’s official plan? Bleak. But better to have a plan.

I think we are incapable of actually puttinG a plan in place. I can’t see any party taking that one.

We saw the push back when discussion was starting 5 years ago. Our democracy for what ever reason seem late to fail the ability to make any sort of long term decision never mind a negative one.
 
Is that Germany’s official plan? Bleak. But better to have a plan.

I think we are incapable of actually puttinG a plan in place. I can’t see any party taking that one.

We saw the push back when discussion was starting 5 years ago. Our democracy for what ever reason seem late to fail the ability to make any sort of long term decision never mind a negative one.

It is Germany's reality. They have no choice- and most people know and understand that.
Unfortunately there are populist parties waiting in the wings. The right- like AfD- wants to restrict the contributory pension to native Germans only. No pension for foreigners- even if they have paid into the pot.
The left wants to bring down the pension age- and raise the pension. All paid by money from the magic money tree.
Both left and right's plans won't work- but the electorate might have different ideas.
 
Approx 800k pensioners by 53 weeks by €15. Well over .6bn. That’s just one years increase.
Doesn't the proposed increase relate only to recipients of the Old Age Contributory Pension?

According to the DSP quarterly statistical report for Quarter 2, there were 522,270.

A €20 increase would cost 553.6m per annum
A €15 increase would cost 415.2m per annum
 
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We need to keep people healthy so that they are economically and socially productive into old age. We also need to change our thinking around the term "old age". Being old doesn't mean infirmity. One in every two girls born here this year can expect to live into their 90's. Body aren't far behind. The idea that we can enter the workforce in our early 20's and leave it in our mid 60's and then be retired for nearly as long as we were working is not sustainable.

Most importantly of all we need to reframe our health service from the current structure which is a sickness care model and change it into a healthcare model. That will allow us to increase our healthy life expectancy, which is what really matters.
 
Doesn't the proposed increase relate only to recipients of the Old Age Contributory Pension?

According to the DSP quarterly statistical report for Quarter 2, there were 522,270.

A 20% increase would cost 553.6m per annum
A 15% increase would cost 415.2m per annum
Round up 553.6m and you get 0.6bn so what's your point exactly ?
 
We need to keep people healthy so that they are economically and socially productive into old age. We also need to change our thinking around the term "old age". Being old doesn't mean infirmity. One in every two girls born here this year can expect to live into their 90's. Body aren't far behind. The idea that we can enter the workforce in our early 20's and leave it in our mid 60's and then be retired for nearly as long as we were working is not sustainable.

Most importantly of all we need to reframe our health service from the current structure which is a sickness care model and change it into a healthcare model. That will allow us to increase our healthy life expectancy, which is what really matters.
Don't agree - firstly most people dont live to 105 years of age. After 40 years working I will feel I have done my bit and will want to get off the hamster wheel. Doesnt mean I dont plan to be productive or contribute to society after 65. I plan to be very active helping others with voluntary works for charities, hospices etc. Think my soul and phsychee will get much more out of that than me turning up for paid office work.
 
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Doesn't the proposed increase relate only to recipients of the Old Age Contributory Pension?

According to the DSP quarterly statistical report for Quarter 2, there were 522,270.

A 20% increase would cost 553.6m per annum
A 15% increase would cost 415.2m per annum

Last year both got €12 increases. I suspect it would be similar. Although I think non contributory pension is paid out of a different pot tbf.
 
The figures I posted in #51 refer solely to the Contributory OAP.

It was originally reported that an additional €20 was envisaged and later €15.

Thus, the figures refer to the probable cost of both per annum.

There are 522,270 rather than 800,000 COAP recipients.
 
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The figures I posted in #51 refer solely to the Contributory OAP.

It was originally reported that an additional €20 was envisaged and later €15.

Thus, the figures refer to the probable cost of both per annum.

There are 522,270 rather than 800,000 COAP recipients.

You posted % not €. I didn’t know what to make it.

From the CSO

“The number of people aged 65 years and over is estimated to have risen by over 40% between 2013 and 2023, from 569,000 to 806,000, and is expected to double again to 1.6 million by 2051”

Mine was just a very rough attempt. Although that a lot of people on the non contributory (or none).
 
You posted % not €. I didn’t know what to make it.
You are correct, the %s should have been €s -senior eyesight. I have corrected my post.

Whatever about future pensioner figures, the number of COAP figures at Quarter 2 (see page 11) is 522,270.

Thus, in calculating the additional cost of increasing the COAP for 2025, current figures must be used.

Regarding future pensions, although demographics can be projected far into the future within a reasonable margin of error (baring catastrophes, unusual migration or fertility, etc.,), domestic and global economic conditions are far less predictable and so governments usually go for 5-year, or less commonly, ten-year cycles when formulating policies.

For instance, government economic policies might increasingly factor in climate change, but could they predict a global pandemic or a protracted war that affects essential supply chains?

In fairness, reforms are being introduced - gradually to avoid cliff edges – inter alia, raising the pension age and increasing employee/employer PRSI contributions.

At the end of the day all policies are a balancing act between competing needs.
 
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