# figure of 25,000 demand for housing this year



## miju (7 Jun 2006)

just read an article in the indo today, i'm curious as to where the builders / journos get these figures from??

how do they know that x amount of houses will be built but it's not meeting the expected demand of 25,000 houses per year????

just seems like a massive falacy to me which i'm hoping someone here can clear up?


----------



## Guest107 (7 Jun 2006)

back of envelope job 

1. Get your completion stats here 

http://www.environ.ie/DOEI/DOEIPub.nsf/wvNavView/RegularPublications?OpenDocument&Lang=en#I2

2. If 50000 do their  leaving cert this year and then leave home and shack up on  in pairs , irrespective of peccadillos , thats 25000   homes needed to house these new households.

The rate of "Houshold Formation" is below that of "House Completions" Immigrants also form Households of course.

makes one wonder who will be in the other 65000 units they will build on the side though, some will be holiday homes


----------



## Purple (7 Jun 2006)

> 2. If 50000 do their leaving cert this year and then leave home and shack up on in pairs , irrespective of peccadillos , thats 25000 homes needed to house these new households.


 But peopel who own existing homes die and their house is sold off by the relations. So not every new household needs a new house.


----------



## miju (7 Jun 2006)

so im correct in thinking that these demand figures that are farmed about are a load of tosh with no real concrete source then???

find that pretty incredible since it's been the whole mantra of the property bubble "demand outstripping supply etc, etc"


----------



## ClubMan (7 Jun 2006)

miju said:
			
		

> how do they know that x amount of houses will be built but it's not meeting the expected demand of 25,000 houses per year????
> 
> just seems like a massive falacy to me which i'm hoping someone here can clear up?


 In relation to projected figures as far as I know the latest media coverage is on foot of a report from the _Irish Home Builders Association_ who are hardly an independent/objective party in such matters. For example...

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]*Capital's housing supply falling way below demand, builders say - Irish Independent*[/FONT]


----------



## miju (7 Jun 2006)

that's excalty what i though when reading the indo today hence me asking the question becuase i've never really stopped to ask myself the source of these figures until today when i saw where they came from and kinda said to myself "hang on a sec...slightly biased group saying there's a shortage????"


----------



## Purple (7 Jun 2006)

ClubMan said:
			
		

> In relation to projected figures as far as I know the latest media coverage is on foot of a report from the _Irish Home Builders Association_ who are hardly an independent/objective party in such matters. For example...
> 
> [FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]*Capital's housing supply falling way below demand, builders say - Irish Independent*[/FONT]


The line "well they would say that, wouldn't they", springs to mind.


----------



## Duplex (7 Jun 2006)

Look at European birth rates and wonder at the advisability of taking a thirty year mortgage on a continental property in the current market.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/peo_bir_rat-people-birth-rate


The projected population growth rate for Bulgaria is interesting;

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/peo_pro_pop_gro-people-projected-population-growth


----------



## Purple (7 Jun 2006)

Most of Eastern Europe is going to have a dropping population. Property in Croatia etc doesn't loom that good in the long run. Maybe Irelands east coast is a good bet?!


----------



## bearishbull (7 Jun 2006)

wow those population statistics are interesting ,gonna be a lot of cheap property in europe in years to come.research show the two main reasons for property price increases in a given reigon is positive income and population growth if either or both are negative or low price growth prospects are low.


----------



## Duplex (7 Jun 2006)

My hot tip for for a decade from now is the second home market in Europe for wealthy Indian buyers.


----------



## jpd (7 Jun 2006)

The NIB Vision 2020 report had a pretty good break-down of the population forecasts and thus housing forecast requirements up to 2020. They laid out their assumptions on popluation growth, immigration, household size, etc and went from there. So if you didn't like their assumptiuons you could re-work the figures using your own.

Then again, forecasting the future is not an exact science, sorry, not an exact art!


----------



## Guest107 (8 Jun 2006)

madisona said:
			
		

> That's because so many of them will be coming to Ireland to form households. Maybe we should be building more houses to meet this demand.



Thats long factored in . When the building boom stops about 80000 houses will empty overnight as the Poles go home....whoops thats a whole years oversupply on the market in the twinkle of an eye.

Logically the demographic hollowing of eastern europe should result in prices falling as they all come to Ireland etc. Why are we Irish paying a premium in Easten Europe so ????


----------



## Duplex (8 Jun 2006)

> Logically the demographic hollowing of eastern europe should result in prices falling as they all come to Ireland etc. Why are we Irish paying a premium in Easten Europe so ????


 
Hedging?


----------



## Guest107 (8 Jun 2006)

For when we follow them to Krakow, Budapest and Prague looking for work is it ??


----------



## whizzbang (8 Jun 2006)

Duplex said:
			
		

> My hot tip for for a decade from now is the second home market in Europe for wealthy Indian buyers.



common, we know the Chinese will have them all bought up!


----------



## whizzbang (8 Jun 2006)

madisona said:
			
		

> That's because so many of them will be coming to Ireland to form households. Maybe we should be building more houses to meet this demand.



Isn't that because only a few European nations are letting them in? Ireland, UK and the Neatherlands or something like that? I think Most Poles would rather work in Germany so they can drive home for the weekend rather than share the wind and the rain with us!


----------



## Glenbhoy (8 Jun 2006)

> I think Most Poles would rather work in Germany so they can drive home for the weekend rather than share the wind and the rain with us!


Yeah cause Poland is renowned for it's great weather, gets a little cold there in winter you know.  But you're right Germany is certainly handier for them, it's just that with 11% unmployment finding a job could be a little tougher.


----------



## walk2dewater (8 Jun 2006)

madisona said:
			
		

> That's because so many of them will be coming to Ireland to form households. Maybe we should be building more houses to meet this demand.


 
yeah we really need to build more houses in Ireland.  Current output is dismal...

Did anyone notice the latest from BoI?  They have just announced sale and leaseback of 30+ branches...  now why would anyone in their right mind sell their property and go renting?


----------



## Glenbhoy (8 Jun 2006)

> They have just announced sale and leaseback of 30+ branches... now why would anyone in their right mind sell their property and go renting?


You just don't understand, according to Goggins, there's no point in tying up valuable assets in a non-productive way - it's actually a vote of confdence in the property market according to him, cos now they loan more - or some other bull***t to that effect.


----------



## ivuernis (8 Jun 2006)

whizzbang said:
			
		

> share the wind and the rain with us!


 
I have many gripes with Ireland but the weather would not be one of them. I walk or cycle to work and there are very fews days where it's too windy or wet to do either. Granted it's not the Costa del Sol but when it's good it's great (e.g. this week) and we don't get either extreme they do in many parts of mainland europe. I just think the idea of Irish weather being bad is much exaggerated.


----------



## ivuernis (8 Jun 2006)

Glenbhoy said:
			
		

> You just don't understand, according to Goggins, there's no point in tying up valuable assets in a non-productive way - it's actually a vote of confdence in the property market according to him, cos now they loan more - or some other bull***t to that effect.


 
Do as they do rather than as they say.


----------



## whizzbang (8 Jun 2006)

Glenbhoy said:
			
		

> Yeah cause Poland is renowned for it's great weather, gets a little cold there in winter you know.  But you're right Germany is certainly handier for them, it's just that with 11% unmployment finding a job could be a little tougher.



not if they are willing to work for less than the Germans are, which is quite likely! Live in Poland, pop across the boader for work, excellent money making opportunity! (I'm sure this will effect prices near the boarder on both side but it will work out for some)


----------



## whizzbang (8 Jun 2006)

ivuernis said:
			
		

> I just think the idea of Irish weather being bad is much exaggerated.



you are right, I was just using a stereotype to suggest that Ireland isn't the golden land a lot of people think it is!

I don't think immigrents think Ireland is the best place in Europe, it is just that we are one of the 3 or 4 countries letting them in. If more countries were to let them in then we would see less here as the move to other more convient countries.


----------



## daveirl (8 Jun 2006)

Glenbhoy said:
			
		

> Yeah cause Poland is renowned for it's great weather, gets a little cold there in winter you know.


Most of the Poles I know hate our weather, they don't mind the cold Winters back home because they know they get a good summer.


----------



## Afuera (8 Jun 2006)

ivuernis said:
			
		

> I just think the idea of Irish weather being bad is much exaggerated.



People abroad expect cold weather in winter and hot weather in summer. Our weather system is so changeable and unpredictable, it just baffles them.

The fact that you can have snow, wind, rain and sun all in the same day is a little hard to accept for the uninitiated.


----------



## Canonball (8 Jun 2006)

2Pack said:
			
		

> Thats long factored in . When the building boom stops about 80000 houses will empty overnight as the Poles go home....whoops thats a whole years oversupply on the market in the twinkle of an eye.
> 
> Logically the demographic hollowing of eastern europe should result in prices falling as they all come to Ireland etc. Why are we Irish paying a premium in Easten Europe so ????


 
We don't really know what way the flow of Eastern Europeans will turn in the future - but what we do know (see CSO birth figures attached) is that there is a natural pent-up demand for accomodation for the next 5 years or so. The baby-boomers of '78-'82 ('83 seems to be a turning point) are still coming on-stream in great numbers. 

http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Dialog/Saveshow.asp


----------



## sonar (8 Jun 2006)

whizzbang said:
			
		

> I don't think immigrents think Ireland is the best place in Europe.


 
Hardly ! A bestselling book in Latvia is "The Mushroom Covenant". It supposedly paints a very grim picture of greed and immigrant exploitation in Ireland. The author has predicted that in years to come it will be the Irish flooding to Latvia for jobs !

I also read recently that many eastern europeans recognize that specialty skills are not worth much here. This ties in with a recent report of a physicist working on a building site carrying cement bags.

Still though, they can make more money here than at home even if it is a temporary arrangement.


----------



## Guest107 (8 Jun 2006)

sonar said:
			
		

> This ties in with a recent report of a physicist working on a building site carrying cement bags.


I knew an Irish Doctor doing that in London in 1990, have we forgotten ...like .....EVERYTHING ????


----------



## bearishbull (8 Jun 2006)

Whats to say the irish wont become like other rich countries where they have less and less children as they get richer eg:germany/japan???


----------



## Glenbhoy (8 Jun 2006)

> I also read recently that many eastern europeans recognize that specialty skills are not worth much here. This ties in with a recent report of a physicist working on a building site carrying cement bags.


It's not that skills are'nt worth much here, you just have to make those skills applicable to the market you're in, by for example having english at a comparable level to the locals (not that difficult in many cases). 
As for the Irish flocking to work in Latvia, i predict it won't happen in my lifetime!


----------



## sonar (8 Jun 2006)

Glenbhoy said:
			
		

> As for the Irish flocking to work in Latvia, i predict it won't happen in my lifetime!


 
Might be right. If some of the big US multinationals here pack up and move to eastern europe I don't think the locals there would take too kindly to the Irish trying to follow the jobs. Especially if the locals have read _the mushroom chronicles_


----------



## SidTheDweeb (8 Jun 2006)

It could be a long while before the Poles (etc.) head home, as as soon as the property construction levels dip, the government will step in and increase infrastructure expenditure. I still can't see immigrants _buying _in Ireland anytime soon, but that doesn't really matter as there will always be people prepared to buy-to-let, as long as they have confidence that the immigrants will stay put.

Will they?

And does anyone have any reliable estimate as to the amount of 'dwellings completed' that are expected over say the next 10 years. And also any recent immigration data?

[broken link removed] is housings completed last few years
[broken link removed] - probably help calculation of immigration numbers, particular construction industry stats


----------



## thewatcher (8 Jun 2006)

SidTheDweeb said:
			
		

> It could be a long while before the Poles (etc.) head home, as as soon as the property construction levels dip, the government will step in and increase infrastructure expenditure.


 
Road building uses a fraction of the workers,that would be released if the housing boom stopped,it's all done with heavy machinery.


----------



## brian1 (8 Jun 2006)

Just a few points here:

- Not all foreigners are employed in construction. I don't mean this to be insulting or racist, but when we stop building, we will still need foreigners to, mind our children, clean our offices, serve us our food and all the other crappy jobs that Irish people don't want to do any more.

An AIB report states: 


> Employment in the construction sector in Ireland accounts for a total of 252,100 jobs- this from a total of 1,929,800 employed persons in Ireland. AIB's report, meanwhile, indicates that only 22,600 non-nationals are employed in construction. Conversely, 27,800 non-nationals are employed in manufacturing, 23,100 in the hospitality industry and 21,500 in financial and business services.



- A friend of mine who works in the mortgage industry has noticed an increase (not big, but certainly noticeable) in immigrants looking to but homes here. He said most of them are the first generation immigrants, being here 3 - 5 years and many of them are staying here as they are shacked up with an Irish partner.

So the 25,000 guestimate above could turn out larger, as the 50,000 Irish people are actually shacking up with the sexy Polish girl/guy from down the street , instead of another Irish person.

- I'm roughly in the age group of that 50,000, one thing that is very noticeable is that very few of my friends are married or getting married. Many are buying their own place as a single person, even a quiet a few of my friends in semi-serious relationships, both partners have their own place. Many in my age group seem to be of the opinion that each should have their own place for now. If the relationship gets very serious and they marry down the line, then they will trade up and buy a bigger place together. This could mean demand is higher then 25,000.

Non of this is really fact (except the first point), but just some observations from my own experiences.


----------



## whizzbang (9 Jun 2006)

brian1 said:
			
		

> both partners have their own place. Many in my age group seem to be of the opinion that each should have their own place for now. If the relationship gets very serious and they marry down the line, then they will trade up and buy a bigger place together. This could mean demand is higher then 25,000.



would that not mean demand is lower as the occupants of two dwellings now take up one dwelling? hence an extra house on the market? or am I missing something?


----------



## SidTheDweeb (9 Jun 2006)

brian1 said:
			
		

> - I'm roughly in the age group of that 50,000, one thing that is very noticeable is that very few of my friends are married or getting married. Many are buying their own place as a single person, even a quiet a few of my friends in semi-serious relationships, both partners have their own place. Many in my age group seem to be of the opinion that each should have their own place for now. If the relationship gets very serious and they marry down the line, then they will trade up and buy a bigger place together. This could mean demand is higher then 25,000..


That's somewhat different to my experience. Anyone I know who's bought recently has bought with at least 1 other person, be it family, friend or partner. I haven't heard of 1 person who has bought solo. (oh actually I have, 1 person, a doctor)


----------



## Purple (9 Jun 2006)

SidTheDweeb said:
			
		

> That's somewhat different to my experience. Anyone I know who's bought recently has bought with at least 1 other person, be it family, friend or partner. I haven't heard of 1 person who has bought solo. (oh actually I have, 1 person, a doctor)


Looks like brian1 has richer friends than you


----------



## whizzbang (9 Jun 2006)

Purple said:
			
		

> Looks like brian1 has richer friends than you



thats it! houses are not over priced, I'm just underpopular!

ahh now I understand.


----------



## brian1 (9 Jun 2006)

whizzbang said:
			
		

> would that not mean demand is lower as the occupants of two dwellings now take up one dwelling? hence an extra house on the market? or am I missing something?



Eventually maybe, but in reality most seem to never get that serious in the relationships. Relationships seem to be far more fluid today then in the past, remember we have divorce now and I've also seen very long term partnerships break up.

That is why I'm saying that a figure of 25,000 is far to simplisitic, it could be higher or it could be lower.


----------



## brian1 (9 Jun 2006)

SidTheDweeb said:
			
		

> That's somewhat different to my experience. Anyone I know who's bought recently has bought with at least 1 other person, be it family, friend or partner. I haven't heard of 1 person who has bought solo. (oh actually I have, 1 person, a doctor)



In my experience about 50% buy with a partner and about 50% buy solo with the help of parents and family, like being  a guarantor, but not actually paying the mortgage.

Just an observation, I could be completely wrong or my experience might not be statistically significant.


----------



## Guest107 (9 Jun 2006)

Todays Irish Times.

104000 Investor Owned Properties are now empty (thats 1 in 15 properties nationwide)

[broken link removed]

This figure does not include Holiday Homes.


----------



## gearoidmm (9 Jun 2006)

They tell us there is a shortage of properties in this country and yet that represents 15 months of house building lying empty!


----------



## bearishbull (9 Jun 2006)

i dont know how that figure could be arrived at, one way could be to check which properties in say dublin had no electricity supply or the bill for the properties electricity was less than a hundred euro in preceding year meaning that no one was likely to be living in it but owner was just using minimum electricity when inspecting,staying odd night etc. Or maybe landline phone usuage per dwelling could indicate the true figure.


----------



## brian1 (9 Jun 2006)

bearishbull said:
			
		

> Or maybe landline phone usuage per dwelling could indicate the true figure.



That would be a bad way to measure it. Many people nowadays are opting not to get a land line, specially in rented accommodation, as people have mobiles.

Over the last 4 years, the number of phone lines has remained static, while in the same period the population has grown by some 10%.


----------

