# Community infections. What exactly does this mean.



## Odea (19 Apr 2020)

I see that community infections are making up about half the cases. What does this exactly mean and where are they coming from?

Is this family members bringing infections home?
Is it going to the supermarket and picking it up there?
Is it passing someone on the street?
Is it picking it up from the post coming through my letterbox, reading my newspaper?
Etc.

It would be helpful to get a breakdown of the community cases. Are those infected being asked a series of questions as to where or what they have been doing recently? It would be interesting to hear some feedback as to the breakdown of these cases and where those infected might have an opinion or understanding where they picked up the infection.


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## odyssey06 (19 Apr 2020)

All good questions but I haven't seen figures  ... if it wasn't resulting from contact tracing from a confirmed case or foreign travel then I think they just dont know after the fact what the original exposure was. There might be clusters from a supermarket or a park, for example, but without contact tracing apps on phones, I don't know if that will be established.

Even if in a family they know who first got it, they still don't know where they got it e.g. if the family member had travelled abroad that wouldn't be community transmission.


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## Leo (20 Apr 2020)

The term _community transmission_ means that the source of infection for the spread of an illness is unknown or a link in terms of contacts between patients and other people is missing.


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## Odea (20 Apr 2020)

So of the 500 cases per day, say, 50% of these can be classed as community transmission or unknown? By asking questions of people would it not be possible to find some common denominator?  
How many people in self isolation except for weekly visits to supermarket are getting the virus. How many of these people are using public transport. How many of people are still working. etc


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## Leo (20 Apr 2020)

Odea said:


> By asking questions of people would it not be possible to find some common denominator?



They're only classified as unknown when asking the questions doesn't yield a confirmed answer or common denominator. Just because a couple if them might have been on the same bus or in the same shop isn't enough to identify the exact source unless you identify the carrier.


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## Grizzly (24 Apr 2020)

I would love to see a copy of the questionnaire that Covid 19 patients are asked to complete (if any) when tracing is taking place.

It really would be nice to know if some people are picking this virus up from every day activities such as supermarket visits, out walking, using public transport as Odea asks above.  

Has anyone had a phone call from the tracers and asked for your movements over the past 14 days?


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## Leo (24 Apr 2020)

The Contact Tracing [broken link removed] is a good starting point.


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## Grizzly (27 Apr 2020)

Over 700 new cases yesterday. We have been in lockdown for about 6 weeks now. Do we have a breakdown of the 700 new cases in so far as, how many of these people have been cocooning, how many are in lockdown, how many are still leaving house to go to work etc?

I would love to know where these people are picking up their infections from.


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## Ceist Beag (27 Apr 2020)

It certainly is a concern that the numbers are still so high when so many of us are adhering to the guidelines. They can't all be front line staff or people in nursing homes can they? If they are going to extend restrictions further this week (which seems to be what they are hinting at) then I think the public need to know where these infections are coming from.


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## Leo (27 Apr 2020)

Ceist Beag said:


> They can't all be front line staff or people in nursing homes can they?



Healthcare workers exposed to COVID-19 patients who contract the virus will not be regarded as community transmission. Same goes for residents of care homes with confirmed cases, further cases will not be community transmission. 



Ceist Beag said:


> If they are going to extend restrictions further this week (which seems to be what they are hinting at) then I think the public need to know where these infections are coming from.



I think it's safe to say the best we can hope for at this point is a slight easing of restrictions.


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## Sunny (27 Apr 2020)

I think it is now important that we are told where the source of these infections are. We are supposed to have a strong tracing facility brought online. Being told general information that there are 700 new cases doesn't cut it anymore. How many are related to nursing/residential care homes? Health Care Staff/Connections. How many of the new cases are untraceable? If the majority are untraceable, it means that people are not adhering to the restrictions like they should or the tracing isn't working. But at least we will have some idea if people are getting them from supermarket visits and walks.


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## Leo (27 Apr 2020)

Sunny said:


> I think it is now important that we are told where the source of these infections are.



They are publishing tracing breakdown. As of Friday, 63% of cases are classified as community transmission where they are unable to identify the source.


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## Sunny (27 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> They are publishing tracing breakdown. As of Friday, 63% of cases are classified as community transmission where they are unable to identify the source.



But is that not 63% of all cases since day 1? I mean what is the breakdown of the new cases being announced every day. If 63% of the 700 new cases cannot be explained, then we are in real trouble after weeks of lockdown.


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## Leo (27 Apr 2020)

Sunny said:


> But is that not 63% of all cases since day 1?



It is, but you just need to look at the data from previous releases to compare. For example, as of March 30th, community transfer accounted for 60% of cases. International travel accounted for 19% back then, down to 4% now. So as expected, community transfer is still a significant factor.


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## Sunny (27 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> It is, but you just need to look at the data from previous releases to compare. For example, as of March 30th, community transfer accounted for 60% of cases. International travel accounted for 19% back then, down to 4% now. So as expected, community transfer is still a significant factor.



Community transfer for all cases up to the 30th March was 60%. Community Transfer was 63% of all cases up to yesterday despite the surge in testing since the 30th March. That means that community transfer of the virus has pretty much disappeared. So out of the over 700 cases yesterday, where are they coming from? They must be nearly 100% nursing home/residential care and health workers/contacts. The number of untraceable cases must be miniscule. So what is the logic behind them saying that they can't lift restrictions. I am not saying that they are wrong but they must be seeing data that we are not seeing and they are not sharing. At the start of this, it was about buying time for the health service and avoid a surge. That has been done. If there is another argument to be made, they should make it. Instead they seem to be pushing a narrative that they can't lift any restrictions because people haven't adhered to the existing ones. The data doesn't back that up. And I think that is what is beginning to annoy people and is leading people to push the boundaries. I have adhered to everything and will continue to do it but I need more than State of the Nation Addresses from Leo and daily briefings throwing numbers at us.


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## lff12 (27 Apr 2020)

Grizzly said:


> Over 700 new cases yesterday. We have been in lockdown for about 6 weeks now. Do we have a breakdown of the 700 new cases in so far as, how many of these people have been cocooning, how many are in lockdown, how many are still leaving house to go to work etc?
> 
> I would love to know where these people are picking up their infections from.



Yu will probably find that the majority will pick it up from family and people they come into contact with. So it could be someone else in a supermarket you visited, or you work in an essential business still operating, or perhaps a delivery driver contracts it from warehouse or a customer they inadvertently got too close to. 700 people is about 1 person in every 7000 people so not as high as it might look. Remember that 18000 have already contracted it, and can still transmit to others - or have picked it up from an asymptomatic person who passed it on.


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## lff12 (27 Apr 2020)

Sunny said:


> Community transfer for all cases up to the 30th March was 60%. Community Transfer was 63% of all cases up to yesterday despite the surge in testing since the 30th March. That means that community transfer of the virus has pretty much disappeared. So out of the over 700 cases yesterday, where are they coming from? They must be nearly 100% nursing home/residential care and health workers/contacts. The number of untraceable cases must be miniscule. So what is the logic behind them saying that they can't lift restrictions. I am not saying that they are wrong but they must be seeing data that we are not seeing and they are not sharing. At the start of this, it was about buying time for the health service and avoid a surge. That has been done. If there is another argument to be made, they should make it. Instead they seem to be pushing a narrative that they can't lift any restrictions because people haven't adhered to the existing ones. The data doesn't back that up. And I think that is what is beginning to annoy people and is leading people to push the boundaries. I have adhered to everything and will continue to do it but I need more than State of the Nation Addresses from Leo and daily briefings throwing numbers at us.



They are not "pushing a narrative". The problem is that at least 50% of cases are asymptomatic or very mild. Those who don't realise they have it will transmit to someone who has a 50% chance of not even noticing. And so on. The biggest issue is that a very large % of people who contract the virus will not suffer or know, and therefore be unable to protect others by self-isolating. That's why there is such pressure worldwide for comprehensive testing, that would identify asymptomatic cases that would infect many others but never become sick themselves.


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## Leo (27 Apr 2020)

Sunny said:


> That means that community transfer of the virus has pretty much disappeared.



No, the opposite in fact. 



Sunny said:


> They must be nearly 100% nursing home/residential care and health workers/contacts.



Someone residing of working in a home alongside confirmed cases will be recorded as local transmission. So closer to 0% than 100%. 



Sunny said:


> The number of untraceable cases must be miniscule.



Unfortunately not, it's currently the most likely means of contraction.


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## Sunny (27 Apr 2020)

lff12 said:


> They are not "pushing a narrative". The problem is that at least 50% of cases are asymptomatic or very mild. Those who don't realise they have it will transmit to someone who has a 50% chance of not even noticing. And so on. The biggest issue is that a very large % of people who contract the virus will not suffer or know, and therefore be unable to protect others by self-isolating. That's why there is such pressure worldwide for comprehensive testing, that would identify asymptomatic cases that would infect many others but never become sick themselves.



That's fine but that is not a reason not to lift the restrictions in some shape or form. It is an argument that it has to be done slowly. All we have is the data we are given. We have no idea how many people are asymptomatic and we won't because we are miles off ever having that testing capacity. Even changing the capacity to one symptom cannot be met straight away. The whole idea of the restrictions was to avoid a surge and buy the health service time. That was done. The data shows that community transfer has been controlled. We have a crisis in nursing home and residential homes. We have a problem with health care workers. There is no evidence to suggest that lifting the restrictions to allow 70 year olds walk around the block will lead to a surge. And yet on numerous occasions over the past week, they have said that they would not lift any restrictions. Why? Where are the new cases coming from that has them so scared. The data doesn't match their comments.


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## Sunny (27 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> No, the opposite in fact.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That doesn't make any sense Leo. Tell me how community transmission where the cause is unknown was at 60% on March 30th. Since then, we have had thousands of extra cases and community transfer is at 63% and you are telling me that community transmission is the most likely means of contraction for recent cases??


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## Leo (27 Apr 2020)

Sunny said:


> That doesn't make any sense Leo. Tell me how community transmission where the cause is unknown was at 60% on March 30th. Since then, we have had thousands of extra cases and community transfer is at 63% and you are telling me that community transmission is the most likely means of contraction??



Yes, it's simple maths: 
Of 2,990 cases on March 30th, 60% means 1,794 cases of community transfer. Of 18,431 cases on April 24th, 63% means 11,612 cases of community transfer. As of April 24th, close contact with a confirmed case accounted for 33% of cases.


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## Bronco Lane (12 May 2020)

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## almostthere (29 Sep 2020)

Grizzly said:


> I would love to see a copy of the questionnaire that Covid 19 patients are asked to complete (if any) when tracing is taking place.
> 
> It really would be nice to know if some people are picking this virus up from every day activities such as supermarket visits, out walking, using public transport as Odea asks above.
> 
> Has anyone had a phone call from the tracers and asked for your movements over the past 14 days?


I can't believe that I am hearing on the radio today that they are going to start asking people about their movements over the past 14 days. I thought that this was already in place?

It seems they were only asking questions about the last 48 hours.  This was raised by Grizzly/Odea on this website months ago.


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