# Inflation of 7% for 2023?



## sonandheir (27 Sep 2022)

Don't see much talk of what I think was the most shocking sentence in the budget:

"_My department is updating its forecasts to headline inflation of 8½ per cent for 2022, and just over 7 per cent for 2023._" 

7% inflation for next year is pretty worrying as that would make for 2 years of high inflation by end of 23'. Those numbers mean inflation could become entrenched and stagflation is a real threat.


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## BigBoots82 (27 Sep 2022)

Agreed and we won't be alone in this predicament. The world is facing some very dark days ahead.


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## Sophrosyne (27 Sep 2022)

in addition Pascal Donohoe also said:

"The pace of growth in the economy is expected to slow throughout the rest of this year as mounting inflationary pressures reduce spending power.

Tighter financial conditions and heightened economic uncertainty will also see firms hold back on investment. As a result, my department has revised down its forecast for Modified Domestic Demand – the most appropriate measure of our domestic economy – to 1¼ per cent for next year."


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## FrankJnr (27 Sep 2022)

When you say "dark days ahead", what exactly do you foresee will happen?

Not being a smart ass, it's a genuine question.


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## Itchy (28 Sep 2022)

sonandheir said:


> Don't see much talk of what I think was the most shocking sentence in the budget:
> 
> "_My department is updating its forecasts to headline inflation of 8½ per cent for 2022, and just over 7 per cent for 2023._"
> 
> 7% inflation for next year is pretty worrying as that would make for 2 years of high inflation by end of 23'. Those numbers mean inflation could become entrenched and stagflation is a real threat.



The public sector pay deal looks like an absolute bargain at those rates!


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## Purple (28 Sep 2022)

FrankJnr said:


> When you say "dark days ahead", what exactly do you foresee will happen?
> 
> Not being a smart ass, it's a genuine question.


Energy prices, climate change causing mass migration, the war in Ukraine, the hangover from more than a decade of QE... if there isn't a large global recession in the next 12-18 months I'll be shocked. 
Of course the Irish electorate will blame the government for not protecting them from reality.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (28 Sep 2022)

As forecast, inflation will be approx 16% cumulatively from 2021 to 2023.

Total government expenditure will rise by 6.5%.

The government balance will rise by about €5bn in 2023 or around 2% of economic output.

All numbers here.

It's actually an austerity budget though no journalist has the wherewithal to figure this out!


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## T McGibney (28 Sep 2022)

Purple said:


> Energy prices, *climate change causing mass migration,* the war in Ukraine, the hangover from more than a decade of QE... if there isn't a large global recession *in the next 12-18 months* I'll be shocked.
> Of course the Irish electorate will blame the government for not protecting them from reality.


There's no credible indication whatsoever of any immediately looming climate catastrophe although climate alarmism is and will continue to be a key contributory factor in the worsening international energy crisis.


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## Purple (28 Sep 2022)

T McGibney said:


> There's no credible indication whatsoever of any immediately looming climate catastrophe although climate alarmism is and will continue to be a key contributory factor in the worsening international energy crisis.


We'll have to agree to differ on that one. I'll go with NASA, the UN, the EU and NATO and the US Army.


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## T McGibney (28 Sep 2022)

Purple said:


> We'll have to agree to differ on that one.


Agreed. We'll know in 18 months anyway.


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## T McGibney (28 Sep 2022)

Purple said:


> I'll go with NASA, the UN, the EU and NATO and the US Army.


Just for clarity, which of these are predicting mass-migration catastrophes caused by climate change within the next 12-18 months?


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## Purple (28 Sep 2022)

T McGibney said:


> Agreed. We'll know in 18 months anyway.


For those who don't get sarcasm I'm not suggesting that there'll be some singular catastrophic climate event in the next 18 months that will cause a recession but things like the drought in the Horn of Africa, the floods, storms and fires we are seeing with increasing regularity have economic consequences. 

_(edit: I presumed that you were joking)_


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## Purple (28 Sep 2022)

T McGibney said:


> Just for clarity, which of these are predicting mass-migration catastrophes caused by climate change within the next 12-18 months?


None of them are, and neither am I. I'm predicting a recession in the next 12-18 months. My post is quite clear. The flow of migrants from poorer parts of the world is being exacerbated by climate change.


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## T McGibney (28 Sep 2022)

Purple said:


> None of them are, and neither am I. I'm predicting a recession in the next 12-18 months. My post is quite clear.


So not actually to do with "_Energy prices, climate change causing mass migration, the war in Ukraine, the hangover from more than a decade of QE..."_ as you suggested less than an hour ago?

That was quick.


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## Purple (28 Sep 2022)

T McGibney said:


> So not actually to do with "_Energy prices, climate change causing mass migration, the war in Ukraine, the hangover from more than a decade of QE..."_ as you suggested less than an hour ago?
> 
> That was quick.


I'm not getting into another discussion like this with you.
My post is clear. It is my opinion that all of the above factors will be contributory causes in a recession. If you don't understand that or choose to misrepresent it that's not my problem.


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## BigBoots82 (28 Sep 2022)

FrankJnr said:


> When you say "dark days ahead", what exactly do you foresee will happen?
> 
> Not being a smart ass, it's a genuine question.


Sustained increases in inflation and rising debt service costs grinding activity to a standstill  business closures, more price controls, shortages, job losses, attempted bailouts resulting in a lack of confidence and debt crisis,  social unrest, rise of extremists to power. Something on these lines

At least that's what scares me. That and the game of nuclear chicken going on in Ukraine


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## FrankJnr (28 Sep 2022)

BigBoots82 said:


> Sustained increases in inflation and rising debt service costs grinding activity to a standstill  business closures, job losses, attempted bailouts resulting in a lack of confidence and sovereign debt crisis,  social unrest, rise of extremists to power. Something on these lines
> 
> At least that's what scares me. That and the game of nuclear chicken going on in Ukraine


I really don't know enough about the financial side of things to comment, that's why I asked, however, regarding the Ukraine situation, I believe there's a strong possibility that it's going to end with mushroom clouds, and inflation will be the least of our worries, but hopefully calmer heads prevail.

There are fun times ahead, travel and see the world while you still can.


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