# trump for president good/bad for ireland



## johnwilliams

was hoping to see the debate but neither rte or tv3 showed it. (so not sure of his politics)
would you vote for him?
if he became president how would it affect Ireland  good/bad  i.e. jobs and American multinationals based here etc. ?


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## Delboy

Bad for Ireland in that this nut could cause serious mayhem/war around the globe


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## Vanessa

We could always try and drag up a tenth cousin somewhere for him. It worked with the present bluffer


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## cremeegg

I have a certain respect for Donal Trump as a business man and as a character. I mean he must be having the time of his life. Running for president is the adult version of skydiving, what an adrenaline rush. 

However I have no respect for the US media who are taking him seriously as a politician, and if I believed that a significant portion of the US electorate would vote for him then I have no respect for them either. However I don't think he will attract any votes in a real election.


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## Gerry Canning

Should he win (the Americans have more intelligence than have that happen)
We have the O Donnell (trumps) here in Donegal.
We could also get the Gallagher (trumps) involved.
We could get the Teelin (trumps) to get him to Slieve League , since Slieve League is the highest cliffs in Ireland , we could have the Slippy (trumps)  ensure he falls and falls .

In answer Mr Trump ain,t much good for other than Mr Trump and is a classic case of money buying vanity and usurping politics.


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## Purple

The last time a Clinton ran against a Bush a rich businessman (Ross Perot) ran as a third party candidate, splitting the Republican vote and getting the Clinton elected. Here's hoping...


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## cremeegg

It seems that Trump's chances of winning the Republican nomination are getting more serious by the week.

I love his healthcare policy, if elected he will repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act) and replace it with "something terrific".

He is sure to get elected, this is the basic premise of religion (and look how attractive that has proved), I feel your pain, I express your anger, I promise you paradise. Something terrific indeed.


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## Gerry Canning

Now now cremeegg ,
How do I Trump your post ?


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## cremeegg

I've been watching the Republican debate on CNN. It struck me how polite they were in the way they all spoke to each other, even if the substance of some of the things they said was fairly strong.

It was interesting to see people who I have only read about in the past. Mike Huckabee a religious ultra conservative, comes across as a pleasant person. Ted Cruz looks at the camera and gives a trust-me leer, creepy. Ben Carson and Ciara Fiorina (?) are complete nut jobs.

Jeb Bush came across to me as a reasonable person, not well able to handle this type of debate, not unlike our own Enda.

I hate to admit it but Trump impressed me. On relations with Russia, he would talk to Putin, Fiorina would strengthen the 6th fleet. On taxation he believes in a progressive tax system, I don't think any of the others do. On Iran again his instinct is talk rather than bomb.

The over the top statements are designed to draw attention to himself, and the media go along with that fully, the underlying reality is a lot more nuanced than the initial appearance. As for the something terrific on health care, still waiting to hear more.


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## Gerry Canning

Creemeg,
I enjoy your posts on this.

Mr Trump ;
He would talk with Putin, (would you talk with a grizzly bear ?)
He believes in a {progressive tax system } preferably on those pesky latinos.
He will talk with Iran ,(then what)
He will do something {terrific} on health care. Methinks save it for the deserving rich. 

I think Mr Trump is a one man Ponzi scheme , maybe I just don,t trust him ?

As the Americans say , have a nice day !


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## cremeegg

The first poll since the spring to show Trump not in the lead for the Republican nomination has just been published.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ibd-tipp-22844

You thought Trump was weird, meet Ben Carson.

Bush is most likely, with Rubio the most likely of the rest.


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## cremeegg

I think I have found the solution to the puzzle that is Donald Trump.

I have always thought there was something unlikely about Trump and his candidacy. Should we take him at face value as a reality TV star with extremist, almost cartoon character views, who would fundamentally change US politics. 

Or is he a clever self publicist, who says what he thinks will get headlines, and whose personal views are better seen from his previous positions. A pro choice pro business democrat.

Well the truth is that he is in fact the Sinn Fein candidate for US President.

[broken link removed]


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## Gerry Canning

Cremeegg,

Trump is {Sinn  Fein Candidate for US President}
Maybe ?
.
1.Would Mr Adams (unlike a lot of US Republicans) and I presume Herr Trump ,know the difference in a Kalasnikov versus other rifles.ie Mr Adams was never in the IRA. 
2. Mr Adams , like Mr Trump {hasn,t gone away you know}.I reckon Mr Trump will implode in 2016,(no I did not mean explode!)
3.. Mr Adams wants those pesky Brits out , Mr Trump wants pesky Latinos out.
4. Mr Adams and Mr Trump own several houses.
5. Mr Trump says he is going to do something special about health care, Mr Adams used same special USA healthcare ..

Are they clones  ?

Have a nice day.


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## cremeegg

I always thought that the Donald would implode, I mean if Councillor Willie Power from Kilnascully ran for President lots of people might support him, Go on ya boy ya. But when it came to election time I don't think he would get many real votes.

Its hard to see how seriously his supporters take Trump, do they see him as a good joke that puts one up to the establishment, or do they actually respect him as a real candidate. I am beginning to think they do.

I am no longer so sure that he will implode. Americans don't do irony his candidacy is what it seems and lots of people support it. i think that Trump himself is better than that, but he is being carried along by the support he is getting.

As Hilary says he is now having a real impact on US opinion, toward Muslims at any rate. Its not funny any more.


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## Gerry Canning

It was thought the National Front would have done very well in France.
It turns out that when push came to shove , the sensible French electorate decided that National Fronts type of Nationalistic Jingoism was not for them so National Front ended up not doing well.

I believe the American people are voicing a dissatifaction with their political elite at a safe remove from any election by using Mr Trump as a sounding Bell.
With freedom to say anything enshrined in USA Constitution , people like Mr Trump can mouth away , but the American people are not stupid enough to really vote for him.

Mr Trump will not implode , real politics will ensure he fades into a quirky obscurity.


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## cremeegg

Watching the Republican debate last night, I think we saw an evolution in Trump.

Instead of sounding off like a true believer as he does when addressing at rallies of his supporters, he behaved more like a conventional politician taking care not to offend any of his opponents.

Gerry refers to "people like Trump", but just what kind of person is Trump. Taken at face value he is a loudmouth rightwing populist, but perhaps he is a shrewd observer with no political experience who saw an opportunity to gain publicity and support from a certain group, by mouthing off.

Now that he has established himself as credible in the polls he may try to establish himself with credible policies. It won't be easy, if he doesn't move forcefully toward more credible policy positions he will fail, if he moves too forcefully, he will alienate his existing supporters.

Fascinating. I can't wait to seed what happens next.


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## Seagull

Trump has achieved something truly remarkable - made Sarah Palin look like a good option


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## Ceist Beag

The longer this goes on the less we can dismiss the chances that this guy might actually be elected. There is now a very real chance that he could win the Republican nomination. Up until now I thought there was no way the American people would be so stupid as to vote for this arrogant, intolerant bully of a man but he's still going strong in the polls so clearly he's managing to fool enough of them.
cremeegg I don't think there can be much doubt about what kind of person Trump is. All throughout his career he has shown himself to be a bully who is completely intolerant of those who have a different opinion to his own and as for his views on things like the poor or the environment - let's just say he hasn't shown himself to really have a conscience in either regard!


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## Gerry Canning

cremeeg,

Stop worrying me please !

Mr Trump needs to stay as the xenophobic malevolent bully boy fascist that he espouses so loudly.
so please, I hope he doesn,t evolve into a nice (thug).
We have our own nice converted (thugs) to watch!.

Ceist Beag,
I still don,t see him making the Republican nomination, but what he can do is to change the mood music and his music is out of tune with what he says he aspires to ,namely a strong outward facing USA.

Still reckon he will go the way of Palin , I just hope he doesn,t leave a bad smell behind.


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## Seagull

How many moderate republicans would prefer to vote democrat than vote for Trump? Surely there aren't enough bigoted idiots there for him to actually win


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## Purple

Seagull said:


> How many moderate republicans would prefer to vote democrat than vote for Trump? Surely there aren't enough bigoted idiots there for him to actually win


I hope you are right but having spent a fair bit of time in Texas I'm not so sure you are!


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## Duke of Marmalade

Trump is 9/1 with Betfair to be the next presi of the US of A and the Duke rates his chances even less.  It was clear from the last two elections that the GOP needed a Blair like conversion to reach out to at least some of the, for example, growing Hispanic minority - old style Republicanism was looking increasingly unelectable.  Trump has gone in the reverse direction.  Yes he might win the Republican nomination (I am sure Hilary is praying for that) as he might have an increased appeal to die hard rednecks, but these are not votes won from the Democrats which is what the Republicans desperately need.


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## cremeegg

There has been a significant development in the race for the Republican nomination. The party establishment has decided that it is absolutely opposed to Ted Cruz winning the nomination, both John McCain and Bob Dole have come out strongly against Cruz recently.

They seem to think that while Trump may be a little over the top Cruz is a true believer and would be impossible to deal with.

We still don't know the real Trump.


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## Gerry Canning

Comment in Economist.

There was a survey on real Trump believers and statistically there are as many Trump believers as there are those who believe there was NO moon landing.

Nutters unite club.!


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## Delboy

Ch4 special on the Don tonight at 9pm, looking at his Campaign thus far


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## Gerry Canning

Delboy , I didn,t see the Trump Show but presume you did.

In your view , how went it ? etc.


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## Delboy

Didn't watch it yet, have it recorded.
Bored myself to death with Liverpool v Stoke instead


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## Purple

It could be Ted Cruz. He's a religious fundamentalist. He could be worse than Trump!


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## Duke of Marmalade

Trump is a friend of the Clintons, plays golf with Bill.  The theory is that Trump is there to stymie the Republican chances and make Hillary a shoe in. He says he'll run even if not on the GOP ticket. A glitch in the plot is Bernie Sanders who is challenging for Democratic nominee.

It is interesting that the favourite to be the next resident in the White house is a woman, the second favourite is a Catholic (Marco Rubio) and the third favorite is a Jew (Sanders).  Following on from O'Bama it would seem that (male) WASPs need not apply


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## Gerry Canning

Purple ,

Whats wrong with a bit of Fundamentalism ?
We all know the world was created in 7 days , so lets agree with Mr Cruz (humour him).
We all know the Angry God of the Old Testament awaits our indiscretions..(a wee bit of fear keeps us in line)

I am taken with the view that our hearts say there is a God , but our heads say nonsense.

The big danger is letting any Fundamentalist believe you are a non believer.
Which reminds me , where,s me prayer mat ? or is that Islam ?

Do you know what Purple , you might be right.
.............................................................................

Mr Trump will keep women in their place, Mexican rapists in Mexico, build a new Great Wall of Texas etc,
...........................................................................

Sound like a pair of nut bags the both of them.

Have a nice day you all.


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## Purple

Gerry Canning said:


> Purple ,
> 
> Whats wrong with a bit of Fundamentalism ?
> We all know the world was created in 7 days , so lets agree with Mr Cruz (humour him).
> We all know the Angry God of the Old Testament awaits our indiscretions..(a wee bit of fear keeps us in line)
> 
> I am taken with the view that our hearts say there is a God , but our heads say nonsense.
> 
> The big danger is letting any Fundamentalist believe you are a non believer.
> Which reminds me , where,s me prayer mat ? or is that Islam ?
> 
> Do you know what Purple , you might be right.
> .............................................................................
> 
> Mr Trump will keep women in their place, Mexican rapists in Mexico, build a new Great Wall of Texas etc,
> ...........................................................................
> 
> Sound like a pair of nut bags the both of them.
> 
> Have a nice day you all.


Religions; like a bag of "crazy sweets" which look different but all taste the same. Anachronistic nonsense from a time when the earth was flat and the sun rose out of the sea every morning and yet the profession of blind faith in 3000 year old tribal writings is a prerequisite to lead the most powerful country in the world. The men who wrote the US Constitution would be appalled.


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## cremeegg

Gerry Canning said:


> I am taken with the view that our hearts say there is a God , but our heads say nonsense.



I can still remember aged 14 when a Cristian Brother told me that we all have a God shaped hole in our lives.

The yearning for something more may be real enough, but that does not imply a God.


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## Seagull

I think it's currently more likely for an openly gay person to be elected to US office than for a self-declared atheist.


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## Gerry Canning

Dear Purple , I see you still have heathinistic tendencies, so I think I will pray for you !
Dear cremeegg, , hmn ! 1 can,t remember 14 days ago much less 14 years , that Brother really got to you.(they were some hit)
Dear Seagull, Votes dear chap are what its about, the hopefuls if they thought it would get them elected would become Christian Gay Atheists with a penchant for knocking evolution .

ps,  Surely the world is flat otherwise planes would end up in outer space.


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## johnwilliams

curious apart from being president what would he gain (whats in it for him?)


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## Purple

johnwilliams said:


> curious apart from being president what would he gain (whats in it for him?)


His ego told him to do it.


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## Conan

I see The Donald is threatening to close Doonbeg Gold Club if he cannot build a rock armour wall to protect the course. I have no problem with that so long as he does not ask his supporters "and who will pay for the wall?"
Mexico wont and neither should Ireland (unless he threatens our families).


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## cremeegg

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Trump is a friend of the Clintons, plays golf with Bill.  The theory is that Trump is there to stymie the Republican chances and make Hillary a shoe in.



The more I see of Trump, the more I think you have this right. I can just imagine the conversation.

Bill: Hey Donald, why don't you run for the Republican nomination ?

Donald: But I'm a Democrat, what would I say to Republican voters.

Bill: How much imagination have you got. The crazier the better. They will love it.

As conspiracy theories go its not too implausible. 

Maybe when Donald wins the Repunlican nomination he will say he was only joking, how could someone with no political experience be President, how could someone who says he wants to deport 11 million immigrants be President.

But maybe Donald is having too much fun to stop now.


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## thedaddyman

cremeegg said:


> , how could someone with no political experience be President, how could someone who says he wants to deport 11 million immigrants be President.
> 
> But maybe Donald is having too much fun to stop now.



People with no political experience have ended up President, Eisenhower is the classic case, even Obama was relatively inexperienced as was Truman

Also it's strange to see people on here being as biased and inflexible about Fundamentalists as the Fundamentalists are around anyone who doesn't share their beliefs. A plague on all your houses as they say, can we not all relax and live and let live!! 

Given the visceral hatred many Republicans have around the Clintons and the baggage Hilary has, I'll be curious to see if the Republicans rally around Trump and if they don't, will it have an impact on other Senate/Congress races in November. There is a danger for the Republicans that their majorities could be eroded if they don't. There may also be an element of yes, he is a right wing racist lunatic, but he's our right wing racist lunatic. After all, look what happened in Tipp in the General Election when a candidate with "questions" about his tax affairs topped the poll.

As for Trump, I've no doubt if and when he get's elected, he will find it is a lot harder to do things then talk about them. Just wait until he tries to implement the logistics around rounding up 11m illegal immigrants and then dumping them across the border and then building a wall after realizing that he has deported the people he needs to build it. The danger with Trump is that he is unpredictable but the converse to that is that with "normal" politicians in place, the world is a dangerous place.


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## Duke of Marmalade

I see the contest for the Republican nomination has risen to a debate on the size of the Donald's manhood.  Puts us to shame with our petty squabbles over water charges.


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## thedaddyman

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I see the contest for the Republican nomination has risen to a debate on the size of the Donald's manhood.  Puts us to shame with our petty squabbles over water charges.



I can just imagine the next Irish debate, with the new leader of the Labour party (AK 47) and someone asking Gerry Adam's if his weapon has been decommissioned. !!


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## Duke of Marmalade

It's a clever strategy of the GOP, to steer the national debate onto ground where Hillary is distinctly suspect


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## cremeegg

I see Trumpy has received a message of support from Jean Marie Le Pen.

It set me thinking about the difference between the two men. Le Pen has been a lifelong Fascist, Trump seems to have been a moderate pro-choice democrat until recently.

maybe when he is the Republican nominee he will change back, though with every passing day I think it is less likely.


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## johnwilliams

any word on who it intends to take as running mate/vice president?
question for any us citizens (only) ,based over here who are republican supporters would you support trump for president seen how is viewed this side of atlantic


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## cremeegg

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I see the contest for the Republican nomination has risen to a debate on the size of the Donald's manhood.  Puts us to shame with our petty squabbles over water charges.



Newsflash http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/07/donald-trump-penis-painting-ilma-gore


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## cremeegg

I am now convinced that Trump will be the next US President.

Nothing succeeds like success and the Donald fresh from his triumph in Indiana has an aura of success.

He is also a very clever politician. He realises that voters don't care what your policies are, they just look at how you project yourself.

He has just this week declared victory (the presumptive nominee) in the Republican race and already he has moved to cover his most important weakness,(no not as in the painting) his bad image with women.

He cannot attack Hilary directly for being a woman, but he can certainly attack Bill for having a bad attitude to women. From the Guardian again.

"With sustained force, he is using Bill Clinton’s sexual misconduct with women to attack Hillary Clinton as his “”. At a rally in Oregon on Friday night, Trump accused Hillary Clinton of trying to “destroy the lives” of her husband’s accusers. “She was an unbelievably nasty, mean enabler, and what she did to a lot of those women is disgraceful,” he thundered, offering no evidence. He repeated the same charges the next day in Washington state."

Just wait and see what he will say or do to get back in with Hispanic voters.


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## Duke of Marmalade

cremeegg Betfair go 7/2 against the Donald - fill your boots

Also a good bet from paddypower   
is 50/1 against the Donald being less than four inches, greater than nine inches is terrible value at 3/1 favourite


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## Gerry Canning

Mr Trump has gone way beyond being a joke.
He seems to inhabit a (virtual reality) mindset , devoid of reality.!
His utterances seem destined to attract a few more dismal/disgruntled and dim voters.
Truth is something he avoids .
He worries me and I fear he will launch into the Clintons with such a lying twisted ferocity that will in effect ,make electing either of them seem like a lost President ?  and that's not good for USA or us.


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## cremeegg

Gerry Canning said:


> Mr Trump has gone way beyond being a joke.
> He seems to inhabit a (virtual reality) mindset , devoid of reality.!



Thats your view, but a significant number of Americans, (over 80% of Republican voters in Staten Island) seem to think that, free trade has cost them jobs, that immigration reduces their standard of living, and that the political discourse does not address their lives or talk a language they are comfortable with.

Calling then disgruntled or dim really doesn't cut it.


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## Gerry Canning

cremeegg,

I agree with you that my view (doesn,t cut it ) with  Trump voters, 
but does that mean I am wrong ?
I would hope I am, and that Trump voters are using a fact based reasoning  more than a kickback/feeling of malaise over the way things are.
Trumps Populism is bad enough , but add in the lies and vitriol that will be spewed as truth twix now and November and voters might be swayed into a natavist me feiner narrow perspective ;
 America is too big to wish that on our World.


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## amtc

I was in NYC the day Obama was elected. I was with my 2 australian aunts and staying in Fitzpatricks Hotel. The barmaid was Irish and we assumed she'd vote democrat. No way right to bear arms was more important. My boyf at time had relations living in maryland..same. on train down...people who didñ't know ireland. My cousin lives in kansaa..trump all the way...


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## cremeegg

Gerry Canning said:


> cremeegg,
> 
> I agree with you that my view (doesn,t cut it ) with  Trump voters,
> but does that mean I am wrong ?



It doesn't mean that you are wrong, it means that you are irrelevant, sorry!


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## cremeegg

Duke of Marmalade said:


> cremeegg Betfair go 7/2 against the Donald - fill your boots



I hope I have better luck than with Alex White to succeed Gilmore.

What I would really like is to bet on the spread, say 10 to 1 on Trumpy getting more than 60% of the popular vote.


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## Duke of Marmalade

I see Michael Martin goading Henda to say nasty things about The Donald.  And Henda rose to the bait.  That is not smart on either of their parts.  If The Donald wins, Ireland inc.  must congratulate him and work with him and lick up to him and, yes, find an eighth cousin somewhere in Leitrim


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## cremeegg

Yes they should both know better. I thought it was a bit rich of Enda talking about not treating people differently based on their religion, we have blasphemy laws in this country for god's sake (yes I know).

Not only will Trump be elected but he will be seen as a very successful President and be re-elected with a trumping majority.

This because he will roll out a huge program of public works, building roads, bridges, ports, and maybe even the odd wall. This will give great employment opportunities to low skilled workers and they will love him for it.

He will do this because it is the right thing to do, because it is his instinct, he is a developer after all, and because unlike Obama, congress won't be able to stop him.


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## Purple

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I see Michael Martin goading Henda to say nasty things about The Donald. And Henda rose to the bait. That is not smart on either of their parts.


 I agree. Really stupid of Michael and Henda. I don't expect anything better from Richard Boyd Barmy.


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## Dan Murray

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I see Michael Martin goading Henda to say nasty things about The Donald.  And Henda rose to the bait.  That is not smart on either of their parts.  If The Donald wins, Ireland inc.  *must* congratulate him and work with him and lick up to him....



Indeed. Politicians should never say what they believe or ever hold firm to their principles. They should simply do whatever is required to further our own economic self-interest. If they are getting all Holy Joe and feel themselves approaching some mythical line of conscience, then they just move the bloody line. Simples. It is without question that Donald Trump is an obvious force of good and the absolute cheek of some people to question some of his comments. Like on what basis did Leo think it appropriate to accuse him of being misogynistic? Well, not in my name, I say.

David Cameron's comments about Trump were equally obscene.


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## Duke of Marmalade

_Dan_, no matter who wins in November we are going to have to swallow our moral self rightuousness.  The Donald's philandering jars with our catholic inculcation albeit his 'victims' speak most highly of the guy.  As to Hillary she is the enabler of the worst type of sleazy groper (and worse), a guy whom incidentally we have tended to lionise.

A Taoiseachs primary duty is to his country and yes that mainly means our economic well being. It would be the height of selfish indulgence for him to criticise the moral standing of the leader of the Western world.

Remember CJH?  There was a guy who saw himself as bigger than his country.  Alone amongst Western leaders he supported Galtieri against Thatcher over the Falklands.  Did wonders for his republican ego but did this country no favours.


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## Dan Murray

Duke of Marmalade said:


> A Taoiseachs primary duty is to his country and yes that mainly means our economic well being. It would be the height of selfish indulgence for him to criticise the moral standing of the leader of the Western world.



Dear _Luke of Jam_ - I share your penchant for playing with folks' names. Feel free to replay the compliment! 

Here's the craic - I'd be interested in your bottom line. Do you have one or basically is it ok for Trump to say anything? If you have a bottom line, how fluid be it?


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## Purple

Duke of Marmalade said:


> A Taoiseachs primary duty is to his country and yes that mainly means our economic well being. It would be the height of selfish indulgence for him to criticise the moral standing of the leader of the Western world.
> 
> Remember CJH?  There was a guy who saw himself as bigger than his country.  Alone amongst Western leaders he supported Galtieri against Thatcher over the Falklands.  Did wonders for his republican ego but did this country no favours.


CJH did a better job economically than Bertie or Garrett the Good, ego not withstanding.


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## Gerry Canning

Dear MR TRUMP,

I intend standing as a Presidential candidate in these 26 Counties , I will be President of 32 Counties (don,t ask why).
Can you give me some advice please.
1. Is it ok to call the 10% English people here , rapists and drug pushers (hope I can)
2. Is it ok tell said Uk ie English people and those pesky Welsh/Scottish that they will pay for a new wall round Donegal (lets keep them out)
Although like your Mexican friends,(where more Americans are going to Mexico than are coming from Mexico) more Irish are now going to England than coming from it.  
3. You are a dab hand @ bankruptcy , could we declare Ireland bankrupt and like you re-invent us as reality TV.
4. On womans issues , you could advise , having trundeld through a few.

You are an exceptional role model and you have umpteen downgrading features, there is no end to the beginning of your unsuitability for public office.

I wish you the most limited success.


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## Dan Murray

Ah now Gerry....

You really should be ashamed of yourself and hang your head very low. Surely you've just committed an act of selfish indulgence? And selfish indulgence - as opposed to, say, non-selfish indulgence, is a particularly serious matter. It is completely irresponsible of you to jeopardise our futures by such reckless rhetoric. Don't you realise the consequences man?

I'm been thinking about the US election a little. Funny enuff, I'm not Hilary's biggest fan but without doubt, Trump is the evil of two lessers....


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## Duke of Marmalade

_Dan_ I don't know why I engage with you, it came to grief before.

I am sure Gerry C will forgive me when I say that his public views on The Donald are really not quite as relevant for Ireland as those of the joint Fianna Gael Taioshaigh.

Make no mistake I despise The Donald and I say so on this public forum in the humility that it will not make a jot of difference for his attitude to Ireland.

The Donald is a bully.  There are two possible approaches to a bully.  Either you stand up to him. You only do this if you are confident that in the end you will defeat him.  The alternative is to do as little as possible to rattle his cage, that unfortunately is the only rational option for Ireland inc.


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## Dan Murray

Dan Murray said:


> I'd be interested in your bottom line. Do you have one or basically is it ok for Trump to say anything? If you have a bottom line, how fluid be it?



I'll try my question again. How bad does he need to get before you think it appropriate for the Taoiseach to comment? Are there any limits in your opinion?


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## Duke of Marmalade

Absolutely no limits.  As Voltaire said when asked on his deathbed to renounce the devil "now is not the time to make enemies".  The world ex USA is metaphorically on the verge of entering a hell with The Donald as the devil. Definitely extremely rash to make enemies of him.

By all means if and when the Enabler beats him, join or even lead a mighty international "phew, that guy was really bad, well done Hillary for slaying the dragon" but until then our joint Taioshaigh should keep the head down and suppress their self (is that better?) indulgence.


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## Dan Murray

Duke of Marmalade said:


> _Dan_ I don't know why I engage with you, it came to grief before....
> 
> The Donald is a bully.  There are two possible approaches to a bully.  Either you stand up to him. You only do this if you are confident that in the end you will defeat him.  The alternative is to do as little as possible to rattle his cage, that unfortunately is the only rational option for Ireland inc.



Firstly, I know why I engage with you. You're a gas man and I enjoy very much your contributions, however misguided. 

Secondly, I invariably get a little alarmed when someone asserts that there are just two approaches to a given scenario - (a) or (b), black or white. My sense is that life presents a much more nuanced palette of options.

It is true that pragmatism and diplomacy have their place within reason. With Trump, there is no reason - so I'm glad that our political leaders did not act as spinelessly as you would advocate. Souperism is a very, very unappealing quality. Personally, I'd prefer to tell the truth and be damned - but of course, as my Yankee pals would say, your mileage may vary.


----------



## cremeegg

Donald trump is coming to Ireland.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/donald-trump-to-visit-ireland-this-month-1.2671320

He must have heard that we were talking about him here on AAM


----------



## Dan Murray

Wow - I knew about his UK jaunt - didn't know this part.

This should be a good spectator sport - tapis rouge ou pas?!


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

_Dan_ I don't think our joint Teeshee were as spine-full as you suggest.

It was pure party politics.  MM as the shadow Teashop saw a great opportunity to embarrass the fronting Teashop. Henda was caught between a rock  and a hp.  His diplomatic antenna would warn him that it was not clever for Ireland inc. to antagonise a prospective US presie.  But his domestic political instinct told him that such diplomacy would be unpopular. He put self and party ahead of country. It happens.


----------



## Dan Murray

Again nope - Leo (a genuine thought leader IMIO) was under no such pressure and was happy to call a spade a spade. He is not spineless and is typically as direct as his profession allows. I admire that and of course, he has form here. Also, have you actually seen the related David Cameroon speech? - very, very far from a man caught between a traditional souvenir and a brown sauce.

_This, above all, to thine own self be true_ - The Bard of Avon
_This, above all, to thine own self be untrue*_ - The Duke of Marmalade

*when expedient (read: when soup is at stake).

Of the two approaches, notwithstanding my reticence of limiting options to two, the former appeals to me more - or it, as the Bard so beautifully penned it, _likes me well.
_
Can we just agree to differ please? YMMV and all that....


----------



## Gerry Canning

cremeegg said:


> Donald trump is coming to Ireland.
> 
> http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/donald-trump-to-visit-ireland-this-month-1.2671320
> 
> He must have heard that we were talking about him here on AAM



.........
Damn it Cremeeg,

He might be gunning for me !

I will just have to accept {He will make America grate} if you get what I mean.]

Dear Dan ,

Mr Trump reportedly reads the Bible ,
One ex -governor is convinced Trump never reads the Bible ,
his reason   iis,
 he reckons Trump never read it because Trump isn,t in it.


----------



## Gerry Canning

Dear Duke,

Was it not also reported that on his deathbed Mr Voltaire on noticing candles flickering said
{ah the flames already}

Re our Dear 2 part-taoisach .
Like jellyfish ,no spine.

Insult department now closed.


----------



## johnwilliams

will we be seeing a wall of protesters when he comes here?


----------



## cremeegg

It seems the Donald has thought better of his proposed trip to Ireland. 

http://www.thejournal.ie/trump-irish-trip-2824655-Jun2016/

I am sure the PBP-AAA will be disappointed.


----------



## Purple

cremeegg said:


> It seems the Donald has thought better of his proposed trip to Ireland.
> 
> http://www.thejournal.ie/trump-irish-trip-2824655-Jun2016/
> 
> I am sure the PBP-AAA will be disappointed.


Very disappointing. I was looking forward to the great speech he was going to give...


----------



## johnwilliams

he could still come ,quick stop off at shannon ,helicopter ride direct to and  land on golf course ,in out before protesters can get organised


----------



## johnwilliams

just wondering how is it affecting his business empire financially particularly overseas


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Hillary now 4/6 on Betfair.  The Donald could yet win this by default.  Biden and Sanders are now lively outsiders.


----------



## Gerry Canning

Dear Mr President Trump,

Please forgive my post on thread 61.
Like you, my words mean what I want them to mean.

Thread 61 , when read with very foggy glasses is praise-fest of your doubted qualities.
Rarely have I encountered a man of such minimalist adherence to clarity.
I am certain you will make an outstanding leader of the once free world.
You are destined to make America grate !

I have a small worry in that you may make the rest of us (grate) as well.


----------



## Gerry Canning

Watching BBC , they interviewed a Trumper from the Evangelical Belt.
Close to Quote from interviewee
{Young Lady , its the Bible we follow and that's spelt  B.I.B.L.E.
    = Be inspired before leaving earth,.}

Nice and quirky.


----------



## cremeegg

The first Clinton vs Trump debate is tonight.

Live on BBC News channel and streamed on youtube.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

The Donald has gone out a bit in the betting suggesting the betting markets think Hillary won the debate.

I'm not so sure.  The Donald has the redneck vote in his pocket so his objective is to win some of the sensible folk.  I think stating that blacks have an awful time, denying he disbelieved climate change and generally looking considerably more restrained than his caricature image will have won more undecided votes than Hillary.

As to stamina for a 68 year old and 70 year old both showed incredible stamina.  96 minutes of pure entertainment, better than any soccer match I have ever seen.


----------



## elacsaplau

There is no doubt that Hilary won the debate. What the betting markets are reacting to is who will win the election. In this crazy election, these two factors are way, way off-kilter.

Take the point of climate change. Trump told bare-faced, verifiable lies and you believe (and good Allah almighty, maybe rightly) that this may actually improve his chances! That's what's scary about all this.

One final point, his defence of the lawsuit filed against him for racial discrimination (that it was settled with no admission of guilt) was a particular low even by his standards.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

I see The Donald has had a lash at The Denis.  Goes to show nobody is all bad. The Donald can't be all bad if he has a lash at The Denis and The Denis can't be all bad if gets a lash from The Donald.


----------



## Firefly

Duke of Marmalade said:


> The Denis


----------



## Firefly

Indo....

Speaking at a rally in Nevada on Wednesday, the Republican nominee said: “I don't care how sick you are. I don't care if you just came back from the doctor and he gave you the worst possible prognosis, meaning it's over. Doesn't matter. Hang out till November 8. Get out and vote."

Some lad!


----------



## johnwilliams

this massive tax writeoff  due to losses caused in 1995? (which allowed him to not have to pay tax for 20 years) what were the cause of this
also is he paying tax on any profits he is obtaining from his business here?


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

cremeegg said:


> I am now convinced that Trump will be the next US President.


Not so sure about that.  Video tapes of him talking like a misogynist teenage lout, and when he was 59 and just newly married, and Bush's nephew giggling along. Hollywood couldn't make this up.  Can't wait till tomorrow's debate.


----------



## mathepac

Just the kind of people Americans deserve. Down and dirty, in the gutter trading personal insults and criticising others.

Trump seems to find Hilary guilty of something  sordid and sexist due to her husband's actions, the old cult guilt by by association brought into play.

An unedifying sight, ad hominem slagging from start to finish and any attempt to address serious issues was swallowed by the personal rancour. Why bother with moderators and rules (or any pretence at decorum or basic manners) with the level of participant on view?

Trump's promise to Hilary was chilling. If elected he will appoint a personal prosecutor to pursue his vendetta against her.


----------



## Purple

mathepac said:


> Trump's promise to Hilary was chilling. If elected he will appoint a personal prosecutor to pursue his vendetta against her.


Shows he knows bugger all about the separation of powers under the US Constitution.


----------



## S.L.F

elacsaplau said:


> There is no doubt that Hilary won the debate.



It wasn't hard since the moderator was clearly completely on her side



johnwilliams said:


> this massive tax writeoff  due to losses caused in 1995? (which allowed him to not have to pay tax for 20 years) what were the cause of this
> also is he paying tax on any profits he is obtaining from his business here?



The exact same method was used by the Clintons.

Fun fact....when Ol' Bill was President couldn't he have changed the rules?

He was President from 1993 to 2001



Duke of Marmalade said:


> Not so sure about that.  Video tapes of him talking like a misogynist teenage lout, and when he was 59 and just newly married, and Bush's nephew giggling along. Hollywood couldn't make this up.  Can't wait till tomorrow's debate.



Have you ever had a conversation with someone where you'd said you'd love to do so and so (insert bedroom gynnastics) to Miss so and so?

Imagine if that conversation had been recorded?

I'd ask how exactly is it misogynistic?

It was a private conversation between two men.

I am certain if he'd known he was being recorded he'd never have said it.

When he said he could do anything he pleased because women almost never complained he was speaking the truth.

Women (obviously not all women...but a sizable amount) are only too happy to take a chance in order to get 'close' to him.


----------



## mathepac

Purple said:


> Shows he knows bugger all about the separation of powers under the US Constitution.


I think it shows that in pursuit of a personal vendetta he doesn't care.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

S.L.F.  are you trolling or does that F stand for Farage?  Nigel strongly defended The Donald saying it was no less than what he expected from an alpha male. WTF is an "alpha" male?


----------



## Ceist Beag

Duke, the Donald is certainly not someone I would ever dream of defending but imho it is equally disgusting that the Clintons have decided to bring the campaign down to unprecedented lows with this type of stuff. This is the ugliest presidential campaign ever and that is saying something!


----------



## cremeegg

Duke of Marmalade said:


> S.L.F.  are you trolling or does that F stand for Farage?  Nigel strongly defended The Donald saying it was no less than what he expected from an alpha male. WTF is an "alpha" male?



I am so glad you asked, because I have been wanting to let off steam on that one for a while.

An Alpha Male (two capitals please) is someone who was bullied as a child, at school or at home or possibly both, now as an adult he has, ahem, issues. He works out these issues basically by running around shouting "Look at me, I can do whatever I like".

Such a person often finds themselves in a position of power, driven by ambition to overcome their childhood anxieties, there they get to indulge their demons on others, or in a position of fame where they can enjoy the whole world watch them act out.

Unfortunately there are always those who indulge their bad behaviour through fear or some type of codependency need.

I enjoyed that thank you for your time.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Enjoy this


----------



## Gerry Canning

Trump ,

He won,t win and is but a manifestation of the worst of the old (Tea Party) Sarah Palin spouting , that Republicans should have challenged after Obama won the first term. .
He looks now like a train wreck about to crash straight into the Republican Party !
Will be interesting to see how the Republican Party regroup.

Methinks they (republicans) have nestled a cuckoo!


----------



## thedaddyman

Why is everyone so surprised that many American's are planning on voting Trump?. After all, in living memory the USA have elected as President at least 3 serial womanisers (all Democrats), a twice married ham actor with early signs of dementia, a reformed alcoholic and another republican who was known for an affair with one of his staff . The only elected US Presidents who seem to have controlled themselves in terms of the bedroom before Obama were Carter,and Nixon and it's not like they will go down as all time greats.

I'm not condoning or agreeing with Trump BTW, just saying we shouldn't be surprised. I also wonder if we are in any position to lecture the Americans. After all we re-elected as leader a guy with no bank account.


----------



## Gerry Canning

thedaddyman,

Such wilful cynicism !

But wasn,t Nixon caught snooping @ Watergate.
Must grant you Carter though, and I think Obama won,t be badly judged in time..

We I agree, had issues over Mr Digouts and Mr Charvey Shirts. 

And the world survived .


----------



## Purple

Gerry Canning said:


> thedaddyman,
> 
> Such wilful cynicism !
> 
> But wasn,t Nixon caught snooping @ Watergate.
> Must grant you Carter though, and I think Obama won,t be badly judged in time..
> 
> We I agree, had issues over Mr Digouts and Mr Charvey Shirts.
> 
> And the world survived .


Yep, it's ironic that Carter was an appallingly bad president and Clinton was so very popular.


----------



## elacsaplau

Purple said:


> Yep, it's ironic that Carter was an appallingly bad president and Clinton was so very popular.



I don't think this is fair re Carter? Why do you think this?


----------



## Purple

elacsaplau said:


> I don't think this is fair re Carter? Why do you think this?


The man couldn't make a decision to save his life. Lovely guy though!


----------



## elacsaplau

Purple said:


> The man couldn't make a decision to save his life. Lovely guy though!



Hi Purple,

If you get a chance, can you elaborate please? (Anytime, I've seen Carter interviewed over the last 20 years, I have been hugely impressed by his values and intelligence. I'm a little young to remember his presidency and I have not studied it - so I am interested in understanding what key specific decisions he dithered on.)


----------



## thedaddyman

Gerry Canning said:


> thedaddyman,
> 
> Such wilful cynicism !
> 
> But wasn,t Nixon caught snooping @ Watergate.
> Must grant you Carter though, and I think Obama won,t be badly judged in time..
> 
> We I agree, had issues over Mr Digouts and Mr Charvey Shirts.
> 
> And the world survived .



I'd forgotten about Charvey Shirts. An also our deaf and largely blind president in the 60's , and the 2 intercounty hurlers, one who might have been a wee bit too fond of the drop. Now we have a teacher so maybe no surprise the Dail has long holidays


----------



## cremeegg

Less than a week to go and its neck and neck.

Paddy power have Clinton at 1/3 and Trump at 5/2. As I understand it that means they think her 7.5 times more likely to win. If we assume that either one or the other must win, that means that the bookies are taking 16 and 2/3 % for themselves. In my own opinion it is much closer than that, but unless Trump is decisively defeated, this is a bad election for us all.

The reality of this campaign is that the US political system is simply not interested in dealing with the world as it really is. Trump's, "build a wall" nonsense and Clinton's reneging on her belief in free trade. These are responses to perceptions not to reality.


----------



## PMU

thedaddyman said:


> The only elected US Presidents who seem to have controlled themselves in terms of the bedroom before Obama were Carter,and Nixon and it's not like they will go down as all time greats..


I don't know about Carter but by any definition Richard Milhous Nixon was  a great president. Richard Nixon, a president of Irish descent, _inter alia_, ended the Vietnam war; ended the draft; established relations with communist China; signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with the USSR; enforced desegregation in US schools; created a Presidential Task Force on Women's Rights, established the Environmental Protection Agency, set up the Family Assistance Plan to make direct cash payments to needy families including single parents; visited Timahoe in 1970; etc. etc. etc. By any standard, not a bad record.



Gerry Canning said:


> But wasn,t Nixon caught snooping @ Watergate.



President Nixon was never charged with ordering the Watergate break-in.  Subsequently he resigned when a tape recording disclosed he had discussed using the CIA to frustrate an FBI investigation into Watergate, actions he had previously denied.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

cremeegg Clinton 1/3 means she is 3 times more likely to win than The Donald.  The Donald's odds are 7.5 times Clinton's but that's not the same thing.  Also 1/3 And 5/2 is a 3% mark up for bookies.


----------



## cremeegg

Duke of Marmalade said:


> cremeegg Clinton 1/3 means she is 3 times more likely to win than The Donald.



But his odds to loose are not the reverse, not even close, enough to allow for other outcomes and profit.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> The Donald's odds are 7.5 times Clinton's but that's not the same thing.



Can you explain




Duke of Marmalade said:


> Also 1/3 And 5/2 is a 3% mark up for bookies.


 How do you calculate that. I got 16.67% from 3/1 her odds to LOOSE minus 2.5 his odds to WIN = 0.5 over 3. Which leaves 16.67% for the house.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

_cremeegg_

Lesson on my favourite subject.

Clinton 1/3 means 75% chance (ignoring bookies commission)
Trump 5/2 means 28% chance (2/7)
Together that is 103% all round i.e. a 3% mark up for the book
Put another way, let's say the book is perfectly balanced, that is no matter who wins the bookie pays out 100.  That means she has taken 28 in bets on Trump and 75 on Clinton, 103 in all and so a profit of 3 on her turnover.

Now let's say the bookies have it right.  Then stripping out the commission we would have Clinton's chance of a win at 73% and Trump's at 27%, that is a ratio of 2.7 to 1, which is reasonably close to 3/1.

_ Betfair _has negligible mark up (it makes its profits from charging explicit commission). As I write Betfair
rate the chances at precisely 75/25.

I'm going to stick my neck out.  I think Clinton is a shoe in.  Betting folk have been rattled by Brexit which bucked the odds and the polls but it won't happen this time.  Trump has alienated too many constituencies.  A good hedge bet is 100 Clinton to win Florida at 1/1 and 50 Trump to win overall at 3/1.  If either happens 200 return for 150 outlay.  I think the chances of neither are slim. If Clinton loses Florida I think she loses the lot.


----------



## thedaddyman

PMU said:


> I don't know about Carter but by any definition Richard Milhous Nixon was  a great president. Richard Nixon, a president of Irish descent, _inter alia_, ended the Vietnam war; ended the draft; established relations with communist China; signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with the USSR; enforced desegregation in US schools; created a Presidential Task Force on Women's Rights, established the Environmental Protection Agency, set up the Family Assistance Plan to make direct cash payments to needy families including single parents; visited Timahoe in 1970; etc. etc. etc. By any standard, not a bad record.
> 
> 
> 
> President Nixon was never charged with ordering the Watergate break-in.  Subsequently he resigned when a tape recording disclosed he had discussed using the CIA to frustrate an FBI investigation into Watergate, actions he had previously denied.



this is the same Nixon who expanded the war into Laos and Cambodia having already interfered in the Paris peace negotiations in 68 to aid his election campaign thus possibly lengthening the war. The same Nixon who had to pay almost half a million dollars in back taxes a few months before he resigned. As for Watergate, he may not have been convicted or even charged but it's naïve to think that he wasn't aware of it


----------



## elacsaplau

cremeegg said:


> I got 16.67% from 3/1 her odds to LOOSE minus 2.5 his odds to WIN = 0.5 over 3. Which leaves 16.67% for the house.



Apart from the maths and particularly, the spelling - this looks about right!


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

_cremegg_ just to explain further your erroneous argument.  You will see that the bookie only wins .5 if Clinton loses.  If Clinton wins the bookie pays 1 on the winning Clinton bet but pockets 1 on the losing Trump bet, breaks even.  So the .5 only arises if Trump wins, a 25% chance. So on your calculations that's a 25% chance of making 16% that is 4% expected profit.  Not quite technically correct but close to the correct answer of 3%.


----------



## PMU

thedaddyman said:


> The same Nixon who had to pay almost half a million dollars in back taxes a few months before he resigned.



  Correct. But this has nothing to do with his achievements as a great president.  But more germane to the subject of this thread, unlike Mr Trump, President Nixon made a public disclosure of this tax affairs, even while subject to audit, something Mr Trump has refused to do.


----------



## Purple

I'm with PMU on Nixon. He did great work towards ending the Cold War. Remember it was Kennedy who started the war, changing low level involvement into a major war. Nixon probably wouldn't have made such a balls up of the Cuban missile crisis either where the USA ended up having to withdraw their ballistic missiles from Turkey.
Nixon wasn't a good man but he was a good president.


----------



## elacsaplau

In terms of ranking US presidents, Wikipedia has a lot of data, examining the question from multiple angles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_rankings_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States

By any fair reading of this data, the view that by "any definition Richard Milhous Nixon was a great president" is a seriously minority one.

The data also shows the blunt statement that "Carter was an appallingly bad President" as complete nonsense!


----------



## cremeegg

Duke of Marmalade said:


> _cremeegg_
> 
> Lesson on my favourite subject.
> 
> Clinton 1/3 means 75% chance (ignoring bookies commission)
> Trump 5/2 means 28% chance (2/7)
> Together that is 103% all round i.e. a 3% mark up for the book
> Put another way, let's say the book is perfectly balanced, that is no matter who wins the bookie pays out 100.  That means she has taken 28 in bets on Trump and 75 on Clinton, 103 in all and so a profit of 3 on her turnover.
> 
> Now let's say the bookies have it right.  Then stripping out the commission we would have Clinton's chance of a win at 73% and Trump's at 27%, that is a ratio of 2.7 to 1, which is reasonably close to 3/1.
> 
> _ Betfair _has negligible mark up (it makes its profits from charging explicit commission). As I write Betfair
> rate the chances at precisely 75/25.


Thanks for the lesson, I am still pondering it, so far I see that it accepts that the bookies odds are the true odds.




Duke of Marmalade said:


> I'm going to stick my neck out.  I think Clinton is a shoe in.



Fair play for for that prediction. Not to leave you hanging, I predict that Trump will win. He will turn out less educated white voters in greater numbers than expected, people who don't usually vote. This will give him Ohio, Pennsylvania, cuban americans will not vote for Hillary this may give him Florida, He may also get some of the upper Midwest states that are usually working class Democrat. Against that Hilary has no energised base, non cuban Hispanics maybe, that might give her Arizona but not enough. That leaves North Carolina, will Black turnout, be high enough for Hilary to win, I think Trump will do it.

While I have always thought that Hilary might make an excellent President, she is simply competent, I must say that Trump would make a more interesting President, who knows what he might do. And if a racist, misogynist bully is what America wants, then let them have one.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> Betting folk have been rattled by Brexit which bucked the odds and the polls but it won't happen this time.  Trump has alienated too many constituencies.  A good hedge bet is 100 Clinton to win Florida at 1/1 and 50 Trump to win overall at 3/1.  If either happens 200 return for 150 outlay.  I think the chances of neither are slim. If Clinton loses Florida I think she loses the lot.



That seems like profitable advice


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Well yes the analysis is based on the assumption that after adjusting for commission the bookies have it right.  What does right mean?  We will only know the truly right answer tomorrow.  By right I  mean the best estimate of the current chances given all known data and money is usually the most honest leveller in providing that estimate.

I see Trump is currently 4/1 on Betfair.  I expected him to go out when the polls opened and exit polls became available but that hasn't happened so it is closer than I expected.

What we are seeing is the rise of the "deplorable" in Western democracies.  Deplorables won Brexit and are threatening in several European countries.

If Trump had cornered the deplorable vote I would agree with you but he has really only secured the white male deplorables.  Probably not a majority of white female deplorables and scarcely any Black or Hispanic deplorables.

Continuation of lesson:  _cremegg_ I think you are confusing odds and probabilities (aka chances).  The odds against a 6 on a single roll of a die is 5/1 whilst the odds of an odd number is 1/1. But the chances are in the ratio of 3 (odd numbers) to 1 (six).


----------



## Ceist Beag

Oh dear God America, what have you done! Looks like most of the experts on here got it as badly wrong as the bookies. Can polls ever be trusted any more?


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

cremeegg said:


> Fair play for for that prediction. Not to leave you hanging, I predict that Trump will win. He will turn out less educated white voters in greater numbers than expected, people who don't usually vote. This will give him Ohio, Pennsylvania, cuban americans will not vote for Hillary this may give him Florida, He may also get some of the upper Midwest states that are usually working class Democrat. Against that Hilary has no energised base, non cuban Hispanics maybe, that might give her Arizona but not enough. That leaves North Carolina, will Black turnout, be high enough for Hilary to win, I think Trump will do it.


Very good calls.  I trust you snapped up some of that 5/1 that was going


----------



## Purple

cremeegg, you the man!


----------



## Firefly

I'm speechless. I really thought enough Americans would see through the bluster. Putin will have a field day with him and wouldn't fancy living in somewhere like Latvia at the moment. I see gold spiked by 5% overnight too. 

Biggest threat for us is probably reducing corp tax in the US to bring the multi-nationals home. On a bright side, Mrs. Firefly is heading to NY very soon and the dollar has weakened!


----------



## Delboy

Wait until Enda gets hold off him to tell him how racist he is!
And Mickey Martin had a few words to say about him too.

No more bowls of shamrock in the White House?


----------



## elacsaplau

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I think Clinton is a shoe in.



Not so, alas - we've ended up with the evil of two lessers.



Firefly said:


> Biggest threat for us is probably reducing corp tax in the US to bring the multi-nationals home.



Who the hell knows what the biggest threat is with a sociopath like this as leader of the free world?


----------



## cremeegg

When I woke up this morning and saw that Trump was winning I felt a bit scared. 

In his first speech, the first thing he did was congratulate Hilary, I find that reassuring, of course its just a platitude, but he could have said he was going to finally get to the bottom of the emails, or he was going to investigate Benghazi, he choose his first remarks to move away from "lock her up".

His second comment was about his plans for infrastructure spending, this is the low hanging fruit for the US economy, it will improve productive capacity in the long term and provide employment for mostly blue collar workers in the short term. It may even stoke inflation, which will annoy deficit hawks but might be a good thing too.

He has opposed trade deals during the campaign, no mention of that in his first speech. If he spends money building infrastructure, and creates employment his campaign position on trade may well be forgotten. After all Hillary admitted to having a public as well as a private position on trade. Trade brings wealth, Trump knows that. Expect to hear very little about trade deals being rolled back. 

The stock market sell offs this morning are a good buying opportunity. There will be a major swing back to US stocks, for sound economic reasons as I have outlined, and for Trumps sheer optimism.Yes he campaigned in pessimism, but he will govern in optimism.

As I have said here before, he is less confrontational toward Russia than the US mainstream, this is a position I have always agreed with. I think with a President Trump we face less risk of WW3 than we would have done with a President Hillary Clinton.

I described him previously as a racist, misogynist bully. He certainly portrayed himself as that during the campaign. I hope he does not govern like that. We all, all men at least,  know someone in the pub or the football club or just at work who thrash talks women, many of those men are decent people who respect women in their real lives. I have never understood the need to denigrate women, but I have observed that many men who do so in "locker room talk" actually live in a different manner.

Lets hope for the best.


----------



## Firefly

I see planning permission has already been sought for minor alterations to the White House...

https://goo.gl/images/uMtCyf


----------



## Firefly

cremeegg said:


> His second comment was about his plans for infrastructure spending



CRH is up 6.5% so far this morning


----------



## Purple

cremeegg said:


> In his first speech, the first thing he did was congratulate Hilary, I find that reassuring, of course its just a platitude, but he could have said he was going to finally get to the bottom of the emails, or he was going to investigate Benghazi, he choose his first remarks to move away from "lock her up".


Thatcher quoted St. Francis of Assisi in her first speech. I don't think she thought of his teachings much while in office.


----------



## elacsaplau

Purple said:


> Thatcher quoted St. Francis of Assisi in her first speech. I don't think she thought of his teachings much while in office.



I'm not sure that this is fair - she just had her own way of interpreting the words of St. Francis, as in....

Where there is love, let me sow hatred;
Where there is pardon, injury;
Where there is faith, doubt;
Where there is hope, despair;
Where there is light, darkness;
Where there is joy, sadness.......

_(sorry........I'm just trying to find some humour anywhere on such a depressing day!)_


----------



## Purple

Vladimir Putin signs a decree to appoint Donald Trump the President of United States:


----------



## elacsaplau

I see that our Taoiseach, in a statement this morning, recorded how he is "_*pleased* to offer our sincere congratulations to Donald J Trump_"

No ambivalence there, then?!


----------



## michaelm

Dare I say it but this is better than Brexit.  In my view they were two poor candidates and probably any other Democrat would have beaten Trump, still I'd take Trump over Clinton.  Happily, I backed Trump some weeks ago at 4/1.  It will be interesting to see what happens.  I expect that it won't herald the end of days as predicted by the liberal media.


----------



## Dan Murray

michaelm said:


> Happily, I backed Trump some weeks ago at 4/1



I actually backed Trump many months ago at fancy prices as a kind of insurance policy against my worst fears - which, very regrettably, have now been realised. The "windfall" gain has not really helped my overall bitter disappointment with the outcome. Not even sure what to do with the blood money - maybe a deserving charity - at least then I can say that some good came out of this disaster. Maybe, I'll just get rat-arsed. Maybe both.



michaelm said:


> I expect that it won't herald the end of days as predicted by the liberal media.



Please understand that the _liberal media_ is not the villain here - this man is, beyond belief, unsuitable for such office. Do you not agree?



elacsaplau said:


> I see that our Taoiseach, in a statement this morning, recorded how he is "_*pleased* to offer our sincere congratulations to Donald J Trump_"
> 
> No ambivalence there, then?!



elacsaplau - what should we expect......some consistency in the Taoiseach's views regarding Mr. Trump when self-interest, ass-licking and political expediency are now what's required?? What a truly depressing day.


----------



## blueband

I wasn't at all surprised at the outcome, I was in the states about five months ago and nearly everyone I spoke to said trump would get it.
you see the working class americans are desperate for change and Clinton was far to linked up with the rich and powerfull to ever change anything.....I was always hers to loose...


----------



## Firefly

Purple said:


> Vladimir Putin signs a decree to appoint Donal d Trump the President of United States:



Putin is going to have a field day with him....


----------



## thedaddyman

I backed Trump to win the nomination and then a few weeks ago to win overall so happy days in that regards. I'm not in the least surprised. It was Brexit all over again, older whites voted in numbers for him, Minorities stayed away. The Democrats have finally lost the working class vote and a lot of Americans may not like Trump but couldn't see a reason for a Clinton win.

He comes in at a good time, Obama has done a chunk of the heavy lifting in terms of extracating the US from the worst of Iraq and Afg. ISIS seem to be finally on the run and the macro economic figures such as unemployment in the US have improved in recent years. To some degree, Trump can ride some of that. He'll get the US further out of the middle east and let Putin interfere more there which may be good for the US but not if you are a Syrian rebel.

He will end up appointing 1-3 Supreme Court judges over the next few years so the US will move to the right and become more conservative. So no gun control and more conservative policies on abortion are a possibility

He'll invest in infrastructure and cutting taxes will give the US a short term boost. He won't build a wall but a chunk of it already exists via fences etc and he'll beef that up.

The interesting, (and scary) thing is how will he handle a crisis.


----------



## Leo

Ceist Beag said:


> Can polls ever be trusted any more?



The Bradley Effect in action.


----------



## Dan Murray

thedaddyman said:


> I'm not in the least surprised. It was Brexit all over again



I am not surprised either - it was always a real threat.

Agree fully regarding the correlation with Brexit - a victory of fear, bigotry, racism and ignorance.


----------



## Firefly

Dan Murray said:


> Agree fully regarding the correlation with Brexit - a victory of fear, bigotry, racism and ignorance.



Unfortunately this opinion seems to be gathering momentum..


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Clinton actually won the popular vote as did Al Bore in 2000.

Bit of a crazy system, in fact you would almost agree with Trump that it is rigged.  An honourable man would concede to the moral winner or at least call for a re-run


----------



## thedaddyman

Firefly said:


> Putin is going to have a field day with him....



Nah, after all, he was able to deal with Zig and Zag

http://www.dailyedge.ie/zig-and-zag-3-3073694-Nov2016/


----------



## Vanessa

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Clinton actually won the popular vote as did Al Bore in 2000.
> 
> Bit of a crazy system, in fact you would almost agree with Trump that it is rigged.  An honourable man would concede to the moral winner or at least call for a re-run


This has occurred regularly in the Uk with the tories winning power. Bill Clinton and Obama eere in power long enough to change the system but did nothing. Too late to be whinging now


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

_Vanessa_ that is not a correct comparison.  No party in UK in recent times has won power without also winning the popular vote.  Of course no party has achieved more than 50% of the vote but that's a different thing.


----------



## S.L.F

Duke of Marmalade said:


> S.L.F.  are you trolling or does that F stand for Farage?  Nigel strongly defended The Donald saying it was no less than what he expected from an alpha male. WTF is an "alpha" male?



No I wasn't trolling.

"F" is for "Fingers"



Gerry Canning said:


> Trump ,
> 
> He won,t win and is but a manifestation of the worst of the old (Tea Party) Sarah Palin spouting , that Republicans should have challenged after Obama won the first term. .
> He looks now like a train wreck about to crash straight into the Republican Party !
> Will be interesting to see how the Republican Party regroup.
> 
> Methinks they (republicans) have nestled a cuckoo!



Republicans now control the entire government and I am delighted that it has happened.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> Clinton actually won the popular vote as did Al Bore in 2000.
> 
> Bit of a crazy system, in fact you would almost agree with Trump that it is rigged.  An honourable man would concede to the moral winner or at least call for a re-run



The USA is divided into States and counties, all of these have a say in who gets to be the President.

The decision is by the numbers of States and counties.

Trump won fair and square.

Just a side point regarding votes, more White women voted for Trump than they did for Clinton.

I'm sure an honourable man would take that into account and see that their votes are not wasted.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

S.L.F said:


> Trump won fair and square.


_Fingers_ there are hopeful signs that he won it far from F&S.  His victory speech could be paraphrased as saying "I was only joking, folks".  Before this clarification the Japanese stock market fell 900 points.  After it, it gained 1100 points.

I think we can be fairly sure that:
He won't get Mexico to pay for that wall
He won't prosecute crooked Hillary
He won't ban Muslims entering US
He won't abandon NATO
He won't tear up NAFTA


----------



## S.L.F

Duke of Marmalade said:


> _Fingers_ there are hopeful signs that he won it far from F&S.  His victory speech could be paraphrased as saying "I was only joking".  Before this clarification the Japanese stock market fell 900 points.  After it, it gained 1100 points.
> 
> I think we can be fairly sure that:
> He won't get Mexico to pay for that wall
> He won't prosecute crooked Hillary
> He won't ban Muslims entering US
> He won't abandon NATO
> He won't tear up NAFTA



All I can say is you were pretty sure he wouldn't win but he did exactly that.

The best thing about all this is media once again shown to be completely out of touch with what is going on in the real world.

There was a time when they spoke to people on the streets before they came to their conclusions whereas now they see the world through their bias and write the 'facts' to suit their agenda.


----------



## michaelm

S.L.F said:


> now they see the world through their bias and write the 'facts' to suit their agenda.


For a long time now.  Although I'm not really following it the media seem to be trying hard to hype up the protestations of millennials put out by not getting what they want.  I expect they'll soon get bored and go back to their frappuccinos .


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

S.L.F said:


> The best thing about all this is media once again shown to be completely out of touch with what is going on in the real world.


Once again _Fingers_? Yes this is the third occasion on which the polls and the bookies got it wrong following on the UK GE of 2015 and Brexit.  But the British media (Murdoch) hugely backed and IMHO had a very significant impact in those two results.


----------



## michaelm

The polls are often wrong, Lisbon and Nice spring to mind.


----------



## S.L.F

michaelm said:


> For a long time now.  Although I'm not really following it the media seem to be trying hard to hype up the protestations of millennials put out by not getting what they want.  I expect they'll soon get bored and go back to their frappuccinos .



Practically all of them are Left leaning so their bias was very much pro-Clinton.

The biggest age group to choose Clinton was 18-24 it just shows thst education needs to be upgraded so children learn critical thinking and not take notice of what media tells them.


----------



## S.L.F

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Once again _Fingers_?



You can call me S.L.F

No needs to call me fingers and more than I need to use your previous user name.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Nasty Woman


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

This is a world exclusive for AAM.  I was able to hack into the Teashop's 10 min conversation with The Donald.

TD: hi who am I talking to?
Henda: The Taiosheach of all Ireland
TD: Teashop wow that is enterprising, you knew I was a Tea Totaller
H: Just to let you know how absolutely delighted we all are with your success
TD: That's not what Michael Martin seems to think
H: MM is a bad hombre, hey Melanie is a nice piece of stuff
TD: You like to grab her by the *****
H: Steady on, you know we are a Catholic country
TD: Then what's all this gay marriage crap?
H: We're against abortion
TD: What? I'm all for it
H: I thought...
TD: Oh yes I changed my mind, forgot that


There's more to follow but hey I want to maximise the commercial value of this explosive recording.


----------



## cremeegg

michaelm said:


> The polls are often wrong



While I have always been slightly dubious about the Mathematics of statistics, I think it is fair to say that correctly done polls cannot be wrong as such. Voters can certainly change their mind between the day of the opinion poll and the day of the election, but that is a different matter.

The reason pollsters misread public opinion is simple, they do polling on the cheap.

The media wants new polls all the time, and polls are expensive.

To do a poll properly requires a random sample, of adequate size from the entire population. Very expensive. What actually happens is that polling companies construct stratified samples based on what they think are likely voting patterns. Much cheaper.

For example if 10% of the electorate are aged between 18 and 24 but pollsters expect less young people to vote they may include only 8% of 18 to 24 years olds in their poll, and they are not too fussy about which 18 to 24 year olds they poll.

The polling companies have proprietary models that allow then to construct these stratified samples, this also allows one pollster to claim that they are better than others. Recent elections suggest that these models are very poorly constructed.


----------



## Delboy

I would have thought that the failure of polling is down to the ever increasing creep of 'PC' into our world. People simply are ashamed to say,over the phone or face to face, who'd thy vote for. Even to a stranger.
It's not 'cool' to be  Trump supporter or to want Brexit, or even to want to vote for FF last time out. The media bias is now so strong, people are embarrassed to talk openly. And we now see how this pans out....


----------



## cremeegg

That is only the pollsters making excuses for their failings. I don't think Trump supporters or Brexit voters are exactly shrinking violets


----------



## Ceist Beag

Don't give up the day job Duke!


----------



## Purple

A wall, with fences.
Deport 2 or 3 million illegals (Obama deported 2 million)
He doesn't want to hurt the Clintons ("They are good people").

The real The Donald is now in the building.


----------



## Gerry Canning

S.L.F
You are delighted Republicans control the USA .
I have nil issue on whether Republicans or Democrats control (I don,t know enough) but I am genuinely concerned about Mr Trump.
You said {Trump won , fair & square} . I don,t agree , his speeches / threats/promises had little fair or square about them.
People let him off the hook by using the lame  excuse , that it was mostly election chatter he was at .
I don,t buy that either  , how many of us should tolerate , never mind vote for or even entertain someone who verbally was openly offensive.
What if he acts on his verbal threats ? He can rightly claim USA voted for his views ?  

Doesn,t say much for Clinton or the state of USA that Trump succeeded .

I do put my faith in the Republican controlled Senate and Congress to rein in Mr Trump .
Maybe he will surprise us , but I don,t think hoping that the President of USA will be sensible is an appealing 4 year prospect !


----------



## Purple

Trump isn't a Republican. He just ran on their ticket.


----------



## Kine

I thought Trump promised an extra £350m a week to the NHS in the UK? What's happened to that?


----------



## Gerry Canning

Purple said:


> Trump isn't a Republican. He just ran on their ticket.



If he was I would at least feel he listens !


----------



## cremeegg

Kine said:


> I thought Trump promised an extra £350m a week to the NHS in the UK? What's happened to that?



He gave the cheque to Nigel Farage at their meeting last week.


----------



## S.L.F

Gerry Canning said:


> S.L.F
> You are delighted Republicans control the USA .
> I have nil issue on whether Republicans or Democrats control (I don,t know enough) but I am genuinely concerned about Mr Trump.
> You said {Trump won , fair & square} . I don,t agree , his speeches / threats/promises had little fair or square about them.
> People let him off the hook by using the lame  excuse , that it was mostly election chatter he was at .
> I don,t buy that either  , how many of us should tolerate , never mind vote for or even entertain someone who verbally was openly offensive.
> What if he acts on his verbal threats ? He can rightly claim USA voted for his views ?
> 
> Doesn,t say much for Clinton or the state of USA that Trump succeeded .
> 
> I do put my faith in the Republican controlled Senate and Congress to rein in Mr Trump .
> Maybe he will surprise us , but I don,t think hoping that the President of USA will be sensible is an appealing 4 year prospect !




The reason he won is because people want change.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

I find it amazing the amount of punditry around why The Donald won.  It is like watching one of those football panels telling us how the winning team won because of control of the centre left back when we lay folk were all thinking that they were actually lucky to get that own goal.

Clinton won the national vote by a fairly comfortable 1% which is BTW within the margin of error of the polls taken close to the date. So perhaps the punditry should be targeted at the quirks of the electoral college system rather than attempting profound socio demographic analyses.

Nonetheless the size of The Donald's vote would merit such analysis even if he hadn't won.  A letter in this morning's IT points out that Catholics gave The Donald a whopping 60/37 lead over Clinton. Elements of the Catholic hierarchy had expressed strong preference for the groper over the anti lifer.

There is no doubt that if this demographic had split 50/50 Clinton would have been the clear winner.  The Donald was always going to get the rednecks, the deplorables, the rust belt left behinds, the klansmen,  but was he always going to get 60% of the Catholic vote?  Some of the WikiLeaks stuff revealed the antipathy of Clinton towards the Catholic church.  Was this her own goal?


----------



## michaelm

Duke of Marmalade said:


> A letter in this morning's IT points out that Catholics gave The Donald a whopping 60/37 lead over Clinton.  Elements of the Catholic hierarchy had expressed strong preference for the groper over the anti lifer.


So Catholics are responsible for electing Trump? The IT has an anti Catholic and pro abortion agenda.  Do you think that many Catholics listen to the Catholic hierarchy?  I doubt it. Ardent pro lifers, Catholic or otherwise, will have voted for Trump with an eye on Supreme Court appointments.


----------



## Firefly

Duke of Marmalade said:


> The Donald was always going to get the rednecks, the deplorables, the rust belt left behinds, the klansmen,  but was he always going to get 60% of the Catholic vote?



These people made a difference for sure. Same thing in the UK and across Europe. People feel they are being left behind and are voting for right-wing, protectionist political parties (wrongly) thinking it will make a difference. The world has moved on and those heavy industry jobs will never come back.


----------



## S.L.F

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Clinton won the national vote by a fairly comfortable 1% which is BTW within the margin of error of the polls taken close to the date. So perhaps the punditry should be targeted at the quirks of the electoral college system rather than attempting profound socio demographic analyses.



The college system is a very fair system otherwise political reps would only concentrate in areas of high population.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> Nonetheless the size of The Donald's vote would merit such analysis even if he hadn't won.  A letter in this morning's IT points out that Catholics gave The Donald a whopping 60/37 lead over Clinton. Elements of the Catholic hierarchy had expressed strong preference for the groper over the anti lifer.



Clinton said a child can be aborted up to hours before birth and that she was fine with that. 

Whatever about abortion in the early weeks, that is just plain down right evil.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> There is no doubt that if this demographic had split 50/50 Clinton would have been the clear winner.  The Donald was always going to get the rednecks, the deplorables, the rust belt left behinds, the klansmen,  but was he always going to get 60% of the Catholic vote?  Some of the WikiLeaks stuff revealed the antipathy of Clinton towards the Catholic church.  Was this her own goal?



As well as _rednecks, the deplorables, the rust belt left behinds, the klansmen,_ don't forget that White women voted more for him than Clinton.

My own view is that the entire left is at fault for this.

It's a bit salty but here's Jonathon Pie's explanation of why Trump won see ...here


----------



## cremeegg

Duke of Marmalade said:


> The Donald was always going to get the rednecks, the deplorables, the rust belt left behinds, the klansmen.



Now, now my jammy friend, we are supposed to listen, empathise, and try to understand.

Actually there is nothing wrong with a voter deciding that Trump's economic policies were more in their interests than Clintons. Someone working in manufacturing in the US could reasonably think that Trump, given his seemingly genuine, certainly long term, opposition to free trade was more likely to preserve their economic prosperity than Clinton. Voting in your own best interest's is the idea of representative democracy.

Brexit voters on the other hand deserve all the scorn you can muster.


----------



## S.L.F

cremeegg said:


> Brexit voters on the other hand deserve all the scorn you can muster.



I support Brexit actually, I wish we'd get out of it as well

The reason is complex but I'll put into a simple sentence.

If the EU was to stick to being a trade partnership I'd be all for it.

This business of them forcing the Marxist/feminist/ lefty ideology down our necks is not something I think is a good thing by any means.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

S.L.F.  That's a brilliant clip from Jonathan Pie, and thanks for the flash photography warning

The consensus is that the polls got it badly wrong on Brexit and Trump and the conventional wisdom is that it was because people are afraid to admit that they are for the non PC option.  I think that is a bit over simplistic.  The Brexit polls even swung in favour of Brexit for a period in the couple of weeks before the vote.  Clinton's average poll of polls lead on election day was +3%, she got +1%, which as I said is well within the margin of error. 

The pollsters get a hammering from both camps.  The deplorables say "stuff your polls, we showed you".  The respectables are in such a state of shock they scapegoat the pollsters saying "how did you get it so wrong?".


----------



## cremeegg

S.L.F said:


> This business of them forcing the Marxist/feminist/ lefty ideology down our necks is not something I think is a good thing by any means.



Some of the brexiteers saw the EU in much the way you outline, Daniel Hannan being a leading and very articulate example.

On the other hand some of the leavers saw the EU as the tool of corporate interests, pushing a neoliberal agenda, oppressing workers. Gisela Stuart the labour MP for example.

They can't both be right, they can't both implement their vision to shape the UK outside Europe.

In my opinion the EU does much to protect workers and citizens generally, and the neoliberal's are going to rip into Britain over the coming years. Oh well, if they free the economy and oppress the workers Ireland should benefit from that. And I must admit there is some part of me that thinks the imperial proletariat deserve everything they are going to get. I should try to think more generous thoughts.


----------



## S.L.F

cremeegg said:


> Some of the brexiteers saw the EU in much the way you outline, Daniel Hannan being a leading and very articulate example.
> 
> On the other hand some of the leavers saw the EU as the tool of corporate interests, pushing a neoliberal agenda, oppressing workers. Gisela Stuart the labour MP for example.



Is it not possible for both to be correct?

The EU is an enormous organisation



cremeegg said:


> They can't both be right, they can't both implement their vision to shape the UK outside Europe.



Probably not!



cremeegg said:


> In my opinion the EU does much to protect workers and citizens generally, and the neoliberal's are going to rip into Britain over the coming years. Oh well, if they free the economy and oppress the workers Ireland should benefit from that. And I must admit there is some part of me that thinks the imperial proletariat deserve everything they are going to get. I should try to think more generous thoughts.



Like I said if they stuck to being a trading partnership as compared to an organisation determined to push Marxist onto us I'd be happy.


----------



## Gerry Canning

S.L.F said:


> The reason he won is because people want change.


I ain,t arguing with the obvious !
People will vote for change , but i am sure they didn,t vote for the verbiage that came from Mr Trump,
Because now he can ,with justification, say the people voted on some of the outlandish utterances he made . .
I hope most of  his actions are not based on his more (unusual) campaign utterances.
Fingers crossed.


----------



## Gerry Canning

{Like I said if they stuck to being a trading partnership as compared to an organisation determined to push Marxist onto us I'd be happy.[/QUOTE]

Come on now , stop throwing Marxist etc about , please !
Since 1973 the EU has improved the lives of their people . Flawed and all as people seem to think , over 40 odd years it has been largely successful for its people . I am not sure there is any trading bloc that has done so well for so many  people .
And a good part of that success was social , not just trading.


----------



## cremeegg

Gerry Canning said:


> Come on now , stop throwing Marxist etc about , please !
> Since 1973 the EU has improved the lives of their people . Flawed and all as people seem to think , over 40 odd years it has been largely successful for its people . I am not sure there is any trading bloc that has done so well for so many  people .
> And a good part of that success was social , not just trading.



You are dead right about this Gerry. And if that is too much bother for "grumpy and disgruntled from, wherever," to understand then tough on them.


----------



## Purple

Gerry Canning said:


> Come on now , stop throwing Marxist etc about , please !
> Since 1973 the EU has improved the lives of their people . Flawed and all as people seem to think , over 40 odd years it has been largely successful for its people . I am not sure there is any trading bloc that has done so well for so many  people .
> And a good part of that success was social , not just trading.


I agree. Most of the socially liberal legislation we have grew from the EU influence.
That said I do have a problem with the maternalistic nature of much of the employment legislation, in particular the maximum working week.

Oh, and I see little wrong with throwing Marxists about


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

I don't think The Donald has any principles, and that is a good thing.  But I don't like the gangsters he his recruiting to his team.  One guy has called Islam a cancer.  I doubt if in the early days of the Third Reich even Goebbels would have described Judaism as a cancer.


----------



## Purple

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I don't think The Donald has any principles, and that is a good thing.  But I don't like the gangsters he his recruiting to his team.  One guy has called Islam a cancer.  I doubt if in the early days of the Third Reich even Goebbels would have described Judaism as a cancer.


Dick Spring described CJH as a cancer... a chancer maybe but a cancer?


----------



## Delboy

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I don't think The Donald has any principles, and that is a good thing.  But I don't like the gangsters he his recruiting to his team.  One guy has called Islam a cancer.  I doubt if in the early days of the Third Reich even Goebbels would have described Judaism as a cancer.


Just for context, did he not call it a cancer in terms of it being an ideology rather than a religion?


----------



## Purple

Delboy said:


> Just for context, did he not call it a cancer in terms of it being *an ideology rather than a religion*?


What's the difference?


----------



## Delboy

Purple said:


> What's the difference?


Oh no, I'm not getting involved in a debate on that. Not a chance


----------



## Purple

I love this;
[broken link removed]


----------



## cremeegg

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I don't think The Donald has any principles, and that is a good thing.  But I don't like the gangsters he his recruiting to his team.  One guy has called Islam a cancer.  I doubt if in the early days of the Third Reich even Goebbels would have described Judaism as a cancer.



I dont know much about Islam, but from what I read in the paper, it is extremely homophobic, does not believe women should have a role outside the home, and is intolerant of those who are not themselves muslim.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

cremeegg said:


> I dont know much about Islam, but from what I read in the paper, it is extremely homophobic, does not believe women should have a role outside the home, and is intolerant of those who are not themselves muslim.


Ahh!  So the difference between the Jews of Hitler's Third Reich and the Muslims of The Donald's 45th Presidency is that the latter deserve to go to the gas chambers.


----------



## jjm

Some member states of the EU required BULGARIAN AND ROMANIANS to acquire work permits when the goined the EU in2007 .it remained in place in Ireland untill 2012 and remained in place inUK untill 2014 .The Romanians launched a tungue-in-cheek advertising Campaing  in2013 Aimed at the UK inviting tourist from UK to visit them and also to allay fears when Work Permits Finished in 2014 . GOOGLE There  humorous Poster it was called Worried  about Immigration then come to ROMANIA .Just to jog your memories On the unfounded fears of some.


----------



## cremeegg

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Ahh!  So the difference between the Jews of Hitler's Third Reich and the Muslims of The Donald's 45th Presidency is that the latter deserve to go to the gas chambers.



I dont think that you would find many to agree with you there.


----------



## Firefly

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Ahh!  So the difference between the Jews of _Hitler_'s Third Reich and the Muslims of The Donald's 45th Presidency is that the latter deserve to go to the gas chambers.




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law


----------



## Leo

cremeegg said:


> I dont know much about Islam, but from what I read in the paper, it is extremely homophobic, does not believe women should have a role outside the home, and is intolerant of those who are not themselves muslim.



You talking about Islam or Catholicism there? Not too much difference between a lot of the doctrine and more extreme views in either. Much of what the extreme elements in Islam use to further their cause is at best tenuously linked to the Quran. I work with a few Islamic men and women here, from what I can observe, the men have no issues with the women who work here, and as a whole they are no more bigoted or intolerant than the rest of us.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Firefly said:


> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law


The thread is about a Nationalist demagogue who has seized power through lying propaganda and is now appointing a gang of racist thugs as his henchmen.  I don't think Adolf needs to invoke Godwin's Law to get a mention


----------



## jjm

We need to go back as far as 2007 when BULGARIAN AND ROMANIAN JOINED THE EU take a look at what was said  at that time.Look at all the Countrys who placed restrictions on workers travelling to there Country.Some of what was said Was racist.


----------



## Delboy

Duke of Marmalade said:


> The thread is about a Nationalist demagogue who has seized power through lying propaganda and is now appointing a gang of racist thugs as his henchmen.


Who?


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

The Donald must have been stung by the Duke's comments.  He has since appointed some (relatively) sane guys and gals.


----------



## jjm

Duke Any chance of you Giving him a Hand to drain the swamp , I hear when he drains the swamp the first rock he find is going to be called Duke


----------



## Purple

Trump is bad enough but the guy I'm really worried about is Mike Pence. He's an ultra conservative Christian creationist. Creationist = Nutter.


----------



## jjm

Time to look in the mirror


----------



## Purple

jjm2016 said:


> Time to look in the mirror


I'm not a conservative, a creationist or a reality denier.


----------



## jjm

Purple you took time to look in the mirror up the wrong way Sorry if you thought I was referring to you.The reality is there was a vice President Debate Did you follow it.There are People speaking out of both sides of there mouth running down people for no good reason and thinking they are open minded far from it.


----------



## Purple

jjm2016 said:


> Purple you took time to look in the mirror up the wrong way Sorry if you thought I was referring to you.The reality is there was a vice President Debate Did you follow it.There are People speaking out of both sides of there mouth running down people for no good reason and thinking they are open minded far from it.


I did look at the debate. Nothing I saw made me less frightened of that fundamentalist lunatic.


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## jjm

If Purple lived in the USA and Read reports on how  Irish Woman are Inhumane expected to carry a Preganacy to term when the fetus will not survive .Purple  would say I would be frightened to live in that Fundamentalist Lunatic state or  a Goverment Who dragged a dying woman through the courts to save a few EUROS .Now look in the mirror what do you see.


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## Purple

jjm2016 said:


> If Purple lived in the USA and Read reports on how  Irish Woman are Inhumane expected to carry a Preganacy to term when the fetus will not survive .Purple  would say I would be frightened to live in that Fundamentalist Lunatic state or  a Goverment Who dragged a dying woman through the courts to save a few EUROS .Now look in the mirror what do you see.


No, I wouldn't say that.
I don't see any link between religion and abortion and the State has never dragged a woman through the courts to save a few Euro.
I'm an atheist but I have serious reservations about liberal abortion laws.


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## jjm

Will we see a kickback from shareholders If companies start pulling back Jobs to USA .Are we seeing the start of something new from The squeezed middle who are not extreme left or right wing people,


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## cremeegg

jjm2016 said:


> Will we see a kickback from shareholders If companies start pulling back Jobs to USA .



I doubt it. Why would we?




jjm2016 said:


> Are we seeing the start of something new from The squeezed middle who are not extreme left or right wing people,



Where ? I certainly see no sign of that in Ireland


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## Gerry Canning

What about poor Cuba,

Trumps win took out Fidel !


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## Duke of Marmalade

I see Hillary's lead in the popular vote is heading towards 2% (BTW why are they still counting?), to the point where it is hurting The Donald's weaning narcissism, he is claiming that he won the popular vote if you discount the millions of illegal votes for Hillary.

I think we can now state that the opinion polls did not get it wrong in any statistical sense, at least at the national level.  If we were told for sure that Hillary would get a 2% lead in the popular vote The Donald would have been a huge price with the bookies.  It is testimony to some very shrewd manipulation of the electoral college system that he won.


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## Delboy

Duke of Marmalade said:


> It is testimony to some very shrewd manipulation of the electoral college system that he won.


What manipulation?


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## Duke of Marmalade

Delboy said:


> What manipulation?


Management would have been a better word,  no criticism intended, in fact praise is due and Hilary's team have a lot of questions to answer


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## thedaddyman

Delboy said:


> What manipulation?



There is a long history of gerrymandering in the US at congressional and state level. In terms of the electoral college, the numbers per state are based on the numbers of congressmen and senators in each state and are recalculated every 10 years. It would be hard to manipulate the numbers in the electoral college without a party running the risk of loosing congressional seats but there is no doubt that there are some seriously weird districts

Having said that though, it would have been interesting to see what would have happened in the democratic primaries if Hilary had not had most of the super-delegates on her side, would Sanders have got closer or beaten her?"


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## jjm

I remember trump saying a few weeks before he won the republican party did not know how to win, Trump managed  to disarm his crictics by appearing to agree with them .


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## moneybox

Trump has appointed a Price and a Pence, there must be a joke in there somewhere


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## PMU

Perhaps Ireland has more in common with President Trump than we believe?  President Trump was widely condemned this week for not explicitly mentioning Jews in his Holocaust Memorial Day statement http://cvcworldnews.blogspot.ie/2017/01/donald-trump-does-not-mention-jews-in.html. Our own President, Michael D Higgins also neglected to mention Jews in his similar statement http://hetireland.org/statement-president-michael-d-higgins-mark-holocaust-memorial-day/. Are we surprised?


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## Wahaay

The meltdown of the snowflakes over Trump's immigration policy is a joy to behold.It's not as though he wasn't elected on exactly what he said he was going to do.
FWIW, 325,000 people entered the USA on Saturday and only 109 were detained for further vetting and the majority of those were allowed entry.
If only the liberals would be so keen to protest at all those countries denying entry to Israelis.
The cant and hypocrisy is unbelievable.


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## Gerry Canning

I don,t see joy in Mr Trump doing what he said he would do , unless in so doing he really puts America 1st.
I think he is (bulling) in and sees what flack comes out . The wall policy is divisive and non productive, cherry picking on immigration is irksome and loses goodwill, scrapping trade agreements without proper reasoning loses trust.,

Wahaay , your presentation on {cant and hypocrisy} is a cheap shot and suggests  you are using your view of liberals not protesting as an excuse for Mr Trumps activities.
You may well have a good argument but even if you have, it wouldn,t justify anyone else acting poorly as it appears Mr Trump is doing.


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## Purple

PMU said:


> Perhaps Ireland has more in common with President Trump than we believe?  President Trump was widely condemned this week for not explicitly mentioning Jews in his Holocaust Memorial Day statement http://cvcworldnews.blogspot.ie/2017/01/donald-trump-does-not-mention-jews-in.html. Our own President, Michael D Higgins also neglected to mention Jews in his similar statement http://hetireland.org/statement-president-michael-d-higgins-mark-holocaust-memorial-day/. Are we surprised?


We have a long tradition of antisemitism from our left wing politicians. This is hardly news, particularly from Michael D.


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## Purple

Wahaay said:


> The meltdown of the snowflakes over Trump's immigration policy is a joy to behold.It's not as though he wasn't elected on exactly what he said he was going to do.
> FWIW, 325,000 people entered the USA on Saturday and only 109 were detained for further vetting and the majority of those were allowed entry.
> If only the liberals would be so keen to protest at all those countries denying entry to Israelis.
> The cant and hypocrisy is unbelievable.


While I agree completely that we are hypocrites when i comes to Israel please tell me you are not comfortable with the racist undertones of much of Trump's rhetoric and policies.


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## cremeegg

Purple said:


> While I agree completely that we are hypocrites when i comes to Israel please tell me you are not comfortable with the racist undertones of much of Trump's rhetoric and policies.



Go on then tell us why we are hypocrites when it comes to Israel. Perhaps in a new thread. My blood pressure is good at the moment, I think I can cope.


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## Purple

cremeegg said:


> Go on then tell us why we are hypocrites when it comes to Israel. Perhaps in a new thread. My blood pressure is good at the moment, I think I can cope.


We've had loads of threads on the issue. The Labour Party LGBT group marching against Israel while waving Hamas flags is the example that springs to mind. It would be like Civil Rights marchers in Northern Ireland waving Klu Klux Klan flags. Actually no, it's far worse than that.


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## Wahaay

Purple said:


> While I agree completely that we are hypocrites when i comes to Israel please tell me you are not comfortable with the racist undertones of much of Trump's rhetoric and policies.



What are the examples of these racist undertones ?


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## Purple

Wahaay said:


> What are the examples of these racist undertones ?


If you don't see them then the answer is yes, you are comfortable with them.


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## Wahaay

Purple said:


> If you don't see them then the answer is yes, you are comfortable with them.



So you don't have any ?
I often find the racist epithet is the easiest and laziest to make.


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## Purple

Wahaay said:


> So you don't have any ?
> I often find the racist epithet is the easiest and laziest to make.


He has talked about banning Muslims from the USA. He has described Mexicans as rapists.
Here is a list someone else put together.


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## Wahaay

Purple said:


> He has talked about banning Muslims from the USA. He has described Mexicans as rapists.
> Here is a list someone else put together.




You do realise Islam is not a race ?


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## Purple

Wahaay said:


> You do realise Islam is not a race ?


Strictly speaking there is no such thing as race at all but we use the phrase in a broad sense when talking about bigotry aimed at a group which can be loosely lumped together on ethnic grounds. Did you read the link I posted?


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## Wahaay

Purple said:


> Strictly speaking there is no such thing as race at all but we use the phrase in a broad sense when talking about bigotry aimed at a group which can be loosely lumped together on ethnic grounds. Did you read the link I posted?



So you agree that Islam is not a race,therefore to accuse Trump of being a racist for banning all immigration from seven countries,including non-Muslim citizens,is factually wrong. 
Likewise Mexico.It isn't a race either.
You see what happens when you blithely chuck out an insult that someone is racist ?
There hasn't been a single suggestion that Trump has issued any racist statement or action since he became President and that is what he should be judged on.


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## cremeegg

Purple said:


> He has talked about banning Muslims from the USA. He has described Mexicans as rapists.
> Here is a list someone else put together.



Islam is a religion, not a race.

People are created, by God or nature as you prefer, they don't choose their gender, their race, their sexuality. That deserves respect at a fundamental level.

People choose their religion, while good manners suggests some respect for that, it really does depend on what it is they choose to believe. Sacrificing Albinos for example is a religious belief that I don't respect. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jun/15/albinos-targeted-human-sacrifice-tanzania-groups-s/. Religions which believe homosexuals should be killed I dont respect.Religions which teach that women have no role in the public sphere I don't respect.

In fact I don't really respect anyone that believes the wishes of supernatural powers should have a role in forming public policy.


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## Purple

Wahaay said:


> So you agree that Islam is not a race,therefore to accuse Trump of being a racist for banning all immigration from seven countries,including non-Muslim citizens,is factually wrong.
> Likewise Mexico.It isn't a race either.
> You see what happens when you blithely chuck out an insult that someone is racist ?
> There hasn't been a single suggestion that Trump has issued any racist statement or action since he became President and that is what he should be judged on.


You haven't read the link so.


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## Duke of Marmalade

We all realised that Trumpery and Brexitery shared similar deplorable traits but I didn't think they were so joined at the hip as is exemplified by _Wahaay_.  She positively thinks the sun, moon and the stars...


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## Wahaay

Purple said:


> You haven't read the link so.



I have actually but not a single word supports your claim that President Trump is a racist.
Someone's opinion published online doesn't make it a fact.
But the surprisingly large number of Hispanics and Blacks who voted for Trump is.


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## Purple

Wahaay said:


> I have actually but not a single word supports your claim that President Trump is a racist.
> Someone's opinion published online doesn't make it a fact.
> But the surprisingly large number of Hispanics and Blacks who voted for Trump is.


If he's not a racist and doesn't make racist comments then why is it surprising that so many Hispanics and Blacks voted for him?


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## Firefly

Wahaay said:


> What are the examples of these racist undertones ?



Hi Wahaay,

How would you describe someone who discriminates people based on the country they come from?

Firefly.


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## Wahaay

Firefly said:


> Hi Wahaay,
> 
> How would you describe someone who discriminates people based on the country they come from?
> 
> Firefly.



It's called xenophobia.
Two of Donald Trump's three wives are non-American.


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## Firefly

Wahaay said:


> It's called xenophobia.
> Two of Donald Trump's three wives are non-American.



OK, so he's xenophobic rather than racist. My opinions of him are much better now


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## Wahaay

Firefly said:


> OK, so he's xenophobic rather than racist. My opinions of him are much better now



I'm sure he'll sleep easier now he knows that.


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## Purple

Firefly said:


> Hi Wahaay,
> 
> How would you describe someone who discriminates people based on the country they come from?
> 
> Firefly.


And what religion they are, don't forget that.
In fairness he's not ageist; he'll go for women much younger than him. Did I say women? Sorry, I meant girls.


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## Gerry Canning

Wordplay is dangerous.

.
We can blithely call Mr Trump (rascist) (Xenophobic)  and indeed I don,t think it unfair to see his verbiage as trending that way.
That said , he is much more than that , he seems to view non-americans, as lesser people , and that these non-americans need to know their place ;
maybe I am wrong, because I do not want to be correct !.


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## Wahaay

When threads are closed because moderators disagree with posters then forums simply become echo chambers.
I'm off where stimulating debate is tolerated.
See you.


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## Gerry Canning

Wahaay,

Maybe the (echo chamber) is in your presentation?
Like Mr Trump your postings appear to have had too much (look what the opposition have done ) etc to semi-justify things.
Debate is not a tit for tat argument eg in N Ire that type of stupidity still rears its head !

Mr Trump , seems to be managing to rile too many people ,and presents his views too aggressively and appears to take dissenting views as a threat , and seems to take dissenters as enemies . Hope I am wrong .


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## Firefly

Wahaay said:


> When threads are closed because moderators disagree with posters then forums simply become echo chambers.
> I'm off where stimulating debate is tolerated.
> See you.



I've been posting here for quite a while. In all of that time I have never seen a thread closed where stimulating debate is taking place.


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## Firefly

Gerry Canning said:


> Debate is not a tit for tat argument



Very true.


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## Leo

Wahaay said:


> When threads are closed because moderators disagree with posters then forums simply become echo chambers.
> I'm off where stimulating debate is tolerated.
> See you.



If that were the case you'd probably only have about 10 posts here.

What you were engaged in in the now closed threads was a long way off stimulating debate, and merely trolling at the point they were closed. For debate to be effective, parties must be prepared to acknowledge when proven wrong, not simply try to deflect from the fact through misdirection and baseless accusations.

LoS & STB forums only exist to allow those who make meaningful contributions to AAM a means of occasional relief from the core business of the site. They are not intended as a platform for anyone to put across their points of view, and certainly not those who wish to engage in trolling.


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## johnwilliams

i _don't_ want my thread closed so i am going to throw your debate off the rails for a while 
what is the ratio of supreme judges Republicans /democrats  and what ratio does it take to get new laws passed ?


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## Vanessa

Maybe instead of continously whinging about Trump and Brexit people should be asking why people voted for them and why Le Pen is getting stronger in France and other right wing parties across Europe are increasing in support.


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## Duke of Marmalade

Vanessa said:


> Maybe instead of continously whinging about Trump and Brexit people should be asking why people voted for them and why Le Pen is getting stronger in France and other right wing parties across Europe are increasing in support.


And why the Arab Spring, why ISIS and jihadist radicalisation?  Answer:  that damned Internet and its social media.  Unfortunately folk like _Wahaay _seem to dominate this swamp.  The Donald tweets, others radicalise.


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## jjm

Populist governments all over the world just look at Ireland.Productivity gains not rewarded lobby Groups making all the gains.The Milkmaid and her pail comes to mind.


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## Leo

johnwilliams said:


> i _don't_ want my thread closed so i am going to throw your debate off the rails for a while
> what is the ratio of supreme judges Republicans /democrats  and what ratio does it take to get new laws passed ?



The supreme court don't pass legislation, but their powers allow them to strike out legislation they believe unconstitutional.


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## cremeegg

Vanessa said:


> Maybe instead of continously whinging about Trump and Brexit people should be asking why people voted for them and why Le Pen is getting stronger in France and other right wing parties across Europe are increasing in support.



"People" believe that the know why (presumably other) people voted for Brexit, or Trump. Because those voters saw it as a protest vote. They were unhappy with the status quo and wanted change.

The reason that those who are, to use your word whinging, is because they think that Brexit and Trump will make the situation worse.

In particular it will make things worse for the very people who voted Brexit and to a lesser extent Trump. Those who were doing well before will still do well after, though perhaps less well. Those who were not doing so well before, may find things getting distinctly worse.


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## Purple

johnwilliams said:


> i _don't_ want my thread closed so i am going to throw your debate off the rails for a while
> what is the ratio of supreme judges Republicans /democrats  and what ratio does it take to get new laws passed ?


There are 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans at the moment as well as one vacancy. If Trumps man gets in that will give him a majority. A majority of 60 is required to get a Supreme Court Judge elected. The Republicans have a majority of 52 (I think). Unless they get 8 Democrats to vote for their guy the stalemate will continue. This incident will not help their cause.

On a side note; Read Trumps Tweets in a Homer Simpson voice and you will see how he could be a dialogue writer on the show.


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## Purple

jjm2016 said:


> Populist governments all over the world just look at Ireland.Productivity gains not rewarded lobby Groups making all the gains.The Milkmaid and her pail comes to mind.


The productivity gains outside the Multinational sector are a result of lower pay costs. We dropped one place between 2014 and 2015. I expect we will drop further in the coming years as money that should be spent on infrastructure is spent on wage increases in the Public Sector. The Impact of Brexit and Trump will also have a major bearing on things. Read this and see how fragile the whole thing is.


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## jjm

It was a Republican appointed judge Who took Trump down a peg last week. Some of the present supreme  court Judges appointed  by Democrats presidents were first appointed judges by former Republican presidents .T think it is 5 Republicans to 3 Democrats.


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## cremeegg

Although there is a perception of Republican and Democrat judges, I think all judges would claim that they are independent.

A simple majority is required in the senate to approve the appointment of a supreme court judge. 

This can be complicated in a number of ways, the relevant committee has to allow the nomination to be put to the Senate, this is why Obama didn't make an appointment when the vacancy arose last year.

A filibuster, basically a senator talking until the time is up, can prevent a vote taking place. This can be prevented by a vote of 60 senators.

To further complicate things, the filibuster rule could be amended by a simple majority. This is something that might happen but is seen as excessive by some senators.


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## Gerry Canning

They say 50/50 and that the new boy will be swinger (forgive the pun).Just needs a majority .

From what I read it appears that the Democratic leaning judges take the view that the Constitution is a moving feast and must move with the times.
....................................................Republican leaning judges take the view that the constitution only means exactly what it meant when enacted.

I can go with both views and that  (democratic) types require a (soft -brexit) type interpretatation.
                                                  (republican)   types require a (hard -brexit) type interpretation.


Like ourselves maybe their Constitution needs an overhaul ?


----------



## Vanessa

Joke or is it?
A racist, a sexual predator and a billionaire walked into a bar. The barman said, "What can I get you Mr. President?"


----------



## Gerry Canning

Mr Trump appears to be fixated on trying to denigrate Mr Obama , and blame past,present and future on Obama !.
It seems to be an exercise in blatant character assassination ?
Am I wrong ?


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Is it possible to get to like this guy?  He said some nice things about Ireland.  And there is something a bit endearing about him not caring a fig that Henda used to see him as a very bad hombre indeed.  Yes we hear Henda's explanation that he was attacking his words and not him the man, all the same


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## Vanessa

It looks like Donald is on his way to the dear old Emerald Isle. We will be able to make gobshites of ourselves again like we did over the make believe Irishman Obama


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## Duke of Marmalade

O'Bama


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## Marion

This is so funny!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBvX011tHSA

Marion


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## Gerry Canning

I see General Trump is now on the ball with President Kim (known affectionately as fatty the 3rd).
If it wasn,t serious it could be funny !

General Trump reminds me of the old comment of a Union General about a Confederate General who lost a lot of men, 

{he is a very brave General, he volunteers his men for anything }


----------

