# FF/FG coaltion after the next election?



## celebtastic (31 Mar 2013)

The most interesting (and welcome) aspect of the bye-election in Meath was the  complete decimation of Labour's vote, and the fact that it was greeted  with guffaws of laughter in the count hall.

Can't see Gilmore and his comrades in government beyond the next election.

But what about FF? Up from 19% to 33% - making the chances of them taking a seat there a very real probability.

With Labour and the independents likely to take a mauling in the next election, what are the chances of a coalition between FF and FG?

Now - that'd be an interesting one.


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## Leper (31 Mar 2013)

I think Celebtastic will be proved right after the next general election.  Unless Labour distances itself from Fine Gael (and fast) it is heading down the tubes.  It's probably too late already for Labour.

Fianna Fáil are building quietly with Michéal visiting every constituency.  At this stage Fianna Fáil have little to lose and will accept any Labour Party own goal.

God help us then with a coalition of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.  So much for democracy!  But, as we all know, we are being run by the Troika, so what difference does it make?


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## bullbars (31 Mar 2013)

Leper said:


> I
> God help us then with a coalition of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.  So much for democracy!?



Declan Ganley to re-emerge and have a go with a new party?!


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## blueband (31 Mar 2013)

bullbars said:


> Declan Ganley to re-emerge and have a go with a new party?!


that might not be a bad idea!


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## Duke of Marmalade (31 Mar 2013)

*Paddy Power*
Government after Next Election

FG/FF  13/8 favorite
FG/Lab 7/4
FF/Lab 8/1
FF/SF  12/1
20/1 Bar


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## celebtastic (31 Mar 2013)

I honestly cant see Labour getting back in, under any possible permutation. 

They really have shown themselves up to be little more than the mouthpiece for the public sector unions.

They are not fit to lead a cub scout patrol, let alone hold positions in government


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## Duke of Marmalade (31 Mar 2013)

I really can't see a FG/FF coalition, and think of the year, the 1916 centenary.

It would be like a Labour/Tory coalition in the UK.  Only a life threatening national emergency could countenance it and hopefully by 2016 Ireland will be out of the intensive care unit.

I have been trying to estimate the outturn of the next election given present trends, I get:

FG 60 (-16), FF 55 (+35), Lab 20 (-17), SF 20 (+6)

On that arithmetice Lab cannot make an overall majority with either the big two.  I think a minority government looks a possibility.  FF and FG are each 20/1 against a minority government, either looks a good bet.


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## Deiseblue (31 Mar 2013)

Hugely disappointing result for Labour , thankfully the next scheduled election is more than 2 years away & such is the fickleness of the electorate ( as evidenced by the rise in the polls by FF ) that the tide may swing in Labour's favour.

The one good thing about the bye election result is that we may see Labour being more assertive in terms of insisting on their policies being implemented.


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## Leper (1 Apr 2013)

celebtastic said:


> I honestly cant see Labour getting back in, under any possible permutation.
> 
> They really have shown themselves up to be little more than the mouthpiece for the public sector unions.
> 
> They are not fit to lead a cub scout patrol, let alone hold positions in government


 
I agree with your first and last paragraph. However, their love affair with public service unions has dwindled over the years to now comparatively little association. My wife attended an IMPACT meeting recently where the attendance screamed for dissolution for any association with Labour only to be informed that that union have no association or loyalty whatsoever to Labour.

Fianna Fáil never thought they would see the day when they were out of favour in Ireland and that day came. Labour's destruction will come also. If I were in Labour, I would be mending many fences.

Wait for some Labour heads to roll.


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## celebtastic (1 Apr 2013)

Deiseblue said:


> Hugely disappointing result for Labour , thankfully the next scheduled election is more than 2 years away & such is the fickleness of the electorate ( as evidenced by the rise in the polls by FF ) that the tide may swing in Labour's favour.
> 
> The one good thing about the bye election result is that we may see Labour being more assertive in terms of insisting on their policies being implemented.



Dont know about that.

Looks like Labour are dead set on imploding:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0331/379193-keaveney-calls-for-programme-for-government-review/

That election could be a lot sooner than two years away. 

Rabbitte is a clever fella though - he knows enough to hang onto power for as long as he can. As soon as that election is called Labour risks joining the PDs and the Greens in political oblivion, and he knows it.

The closing line in this clip is typical of Labour's backpedalling: "Sure, isnt that what you tend to do during an election?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAS0c5AkiNg

Indeed it is Pat


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## Delboy (1 Apr 2013)

Deiseblue said:


> The one good thing about the bye election result is that we may see Labour being more assertive in terms of insisting on their policies being implemented.



It IS Labour's policies being implemented from what I can see over the past couple of years!!!


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## Firefly (2 Apr 2013)

I'm not so sure - Labour could have a stronger arm in the coalition now as a result of the poor by-election result - A "give us what we want or we're out" strategy - and the unions could be quick to latch onto this:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/anti-deal-unions-to-pressure-labour-tds-1.1345715


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## Deiseblue (2 Apr 2013)

Thankfully a wake up call that gives the Labour Party plenty of time to get their act together , Paddy Power is offering 4 to 1 for an early election next year with 2015 or later on offer at 7 to 4 - about right I would have thought ?

And given the fickle nature of electorate , if the recent polls are anything to go by - anything can happen.


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## Purple (2 Apr 2013)

All government parties get hammered in elections (unless they are recklessly throwing around tax cuts and pay increases).That is particularly true of left wing parties because their policies are not workable in practice so when they are in power and have to deal with reality they are seen as betraying their election promises. The problem for Labour is that FG’s pre-election talk was much closer to reality than theirs.


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## bugler (2 Apr 2013)

FF and FG would be better off merging, never mind going into coalition together. Having monitored Irish politics for many years now, I am still unsure what the key differences between them are meant to be. I know that the actual differences are negligible. I think a merger of the two would actually be very healthy, and force the electorate to face up to some of their thinking, or lack of, on voting. 

There seems to be something about junior coalition partners that leaves them destined to suffer. Possibly because their own supporters will always be disappointed in taking a back-seat to others, and presiding over another party's decisions which they view as unpopular. There was a movement within Labour that viewed going into Government as a mistake, and they may well be proved right. But who refuses power? That is not something a politician is going to do. A short spell as a minister is better than being right!

I have always voted Labour and for as long as I vote I probably always will, though my current leanings are towards abstention from the voting process. I vote Labour because I think Ireland badly needs a strong Social Democratic movement, which it has not had due to the FF/FG family based gombeen politics obsession. We are fairly remarkable in Europe for our lack of a large SD movement. 

I also view ethical considerations as trumping political or economic considerations. As an Atheist I am precluded from being a judge, and I could never be President. I am pro-choice, pro-gay rights and generally socially liberal. FF/FG have no interest in any of those issues, they are a mix of conservatives and those who would rather hide from these issues and pretend they did not exist. I would like my son to go to a school where the patron was not the Catholic Church. FF/FG do not care about that. A large proportion of them think the Church has a place in schools. The others just don't care.

So, even though I am predisposed toward voting for Labour, even I feel a lot of disenchantment with them now. Bar Ruairi Quinn's efforts in Education, they have done little to be proud of. They have shown themselves to be equal to other parties in taking care of their friends with appointments etc. They are in many ways just as bland and self-serving as FF/FG, you get the feeling politics is just what has to be done to stay aboard the gravy train. 

I saw the Labour core vote as consisting of "working class" people. I am not sure that is true at all, at least not in the conventional sense. I think Labour attracts a significant % of (lower) middle class voters who care about socio-ethical issues such as abortion, separation of church and state etc. These people are not seeing too much progress on these issues, and are the private sector among them are probably not too keen on the ties with and mouth-piecing for the Union element. 

Incidentally, as a private sector higher earner I'd be far better served in a financial sense in voting FF/FG, but I have always found something especially repugnant in those parties, centred on how much of the membership is bound by a lack of a coherent belief in any type of politics bar holding power.


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## cork (2 Apr 2013)

Fg/Lab in opposition were irresponsible.

They then made false promises to win votes.

I think the next govt will be SF/FG.

Labour will be wiped out.

They won't ne missed.


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## dereko1969 (2 Apr 2013)

cork said:


> Fg/Lab in opposition were irresponsible.
> 
> They then made false promises to win votes.
> 
> ...


 
Yawn! And FF weren't irresponsible in power at all? They brought in the Property Tax by having it included in the Troika agreement following their surrendering of financial independence and now are campaigning against it, how is that anything other than political opportunism?

FF are doing their usual in opposition speaking out of both sides of their mouths, and particularly smug looking mouths they are too.


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## Firefly (2 Apr 2013)

Great post bugler.

(I disagree btw re FF/FG merger!).


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## michaelm (2 Apr 2013)

celebtastic said:


> The most interesting (and welcome) aspect of the bye-election in Meath was the  complete decimation of Labour's vote . .


Yes, for me anyhow.  Hopefully this marks the beginning of the end for Labour.


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## bugler (2 Apr 2013)

What have Labour actually done to earn such animosity? I am honestly curious. Will anyone who has expressed delight at their poor performance in the recent bye election actually articulate what their source of enjoyment is? 

For an election that saw a blatant sympathy vote elect an at best "under" qualified candidate, and also saw a resurgence of FF, it seems an odd angle to take. 

After the worst economic catastrophe the country has ever seen it is a source of great disappointment to me that we seem to be left with a political hierarchy that is untouched.


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## Purple (2 Apr 2013)

bugler said:


> FF and FG would be better off merging, never mind going into coalition together. Having monitored Irish politics for many years now, I am still unsure what the key differences between them are meant to be. I know that the actual differences are negligible. I think a merger of the two would actually be very healthy, and force the electorate to face up to some of their thinking, or lack of, on voting.
> 
> There seems to be something about junior coalition partners that leaves them destined to suffer. Possibly because their own supporters will always be disappointed in taking a back-seat to others, and presiding over another party's decisions which they view as unpopular. There was a movement within Labour that viewed going into Government as a mistake, and they may well be proved right. But who refuses power? That is not something a politician is going to do. A short spell as a minister is better than being right!
> 
> ...



I share most of your views and would be very close to Labour on social issues. I just can't vote for them for two reasons;

Their economic policies, because they do so much harm to poor and so-called working class. 

They are anti-business and are contemptuous of the employers who employ the "working class" people they claim to represent. Their rhetoric about exploitation smacks of an intellectual snobbery that is akin to what came from socially aware English protestants who wanted to help the poor ignorant "blacks" in Africa; a group of people of lower intellect who were therefore ripe for exploitation by the obviously more intelligent white Europeans.
 The utterances from the Labour Party, a upper middle class urban party of professionals and the generally well educated who feel a social guilt about their relative wealth, sound very much the same when talking about "the poor".

The fact is that traditionally poor people voted for the larges left of centre part in the state; Fianna Fail. That they were cowboys was a bonus, not an impediment.

That said I take no pleasure at their demise; the vacuum will be filled by Sinn Fein.


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## The_Banker (2 Apr 2013)

bugler said:


> What have Labour actually done to earn such animosity? I am honestly curious. Will anyone who has expressed delight at their poor performance in the recent bye election actually articulate what their source of enjoyment is?
> 
> For an election that saw a blatant sympathy vote elect an at best "under" qualified candidate, and also saw a resurgence of FF, it seems an odd angle to take.
> 
> After the worst economic catastrophe the country has ever seen it is a source of great disappointment to me that we seem to be left with a political hierarchy that is untouched.


 
Labours Way or Frankfurts Way...

Those 5 words sum up the reason Bugler...
FG would have suffered more but I think they got a lot of sympathy votes.


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## bugler (2 Apr 2013)

The_Banker said:


> Labours Way or Frankfurts Way...
> 
> Those 5 words sum up the reason Bugler...
> FG would have suffered more but I think they got a lot of sympathy votes.



That doesn't really tell me anything though. That's just a soundbite, like "Labour were decimated - thank god." You could pick any political party and make a similar point. For instance, "A lot done - a lot more to do" doesn't quite sum up FF's performance in Government and what was wrong with it. It was very unwise for any party to make a bald claim that they would row back on the European directives coming Ireland's way. I don't think it was possible.

I have yet to be given an actual reason as to why Labour's demise would be a good thing, seeing as that can only mean one of two things:

1.FF/FG gain at their expense. Let's be honest, that hasn't worked particularly well for the country (particularly the former to be fair)
2. Fringe parties (I include SF in this) gain. I suspect those who wish Labour ill are even less enamoured with the more left leaning parties. 

There are an awful lot of things wrong with our political system, but I am not sure any of them are going to be helped by a seriously weakened or obliterated Labour.

Is more FF/FG homogeniety the best answer for Ireland? FF's resurgence, led by a man who was as cosy as any with Ahern and Cowen is particularly damning of the electorate's outlook on what makes for good governance.


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## Firefly (2 Apr 2013)

bugler said:


> I have yet to be given an actual reason as to why Labour's demise would be a good thing




Hi bugler,

We are still borrowing 10bn a year to fund public sector wages, pensions and the dole. Many feel that Labour are standing in the way of balancing our budget so we can have a reduced national debt. 

Lower national debt = lower interest payments = lower taxes = increased competitiveness = more jobs. 

The interest on our national debt is close to what we spending on education already (and that's one of the biggest sectors from an expense perspective). If/when interest rates rise we are down & out unless we can balance our books.

That's why I think (and hope) the game's up for Labour.


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## dereko1969 (2 Apr 2013)

Firefly said:


> Hi bugler,
> 
> *We are still borrowing 10bn a year to fund public sector wages, pensions and the dole. Many feel that Labour are standing in the way of balancing our budget so we can have a reduced national debt. *
> 
> ...


 
I haven't heard any of the parties actually arguing for even more public sector pay cuts than those that have been and are to come, as FG are the bigger party surely they should bear some blame for this - to your mind anyway?

For some reason Irish people tend to blame the smaller party for the sins of the larger party which goes well with our general political logic.


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## michaelm (2 Apr 2013)

bugler said:


> I have yet to be given an actual reason as to why Labour's demise would be a good thing . .


For me the bulk of the Labour bigwigs are spoofers and windbags . . a litany of broken election promises and u-turns . . clueless when it comes to business/employment . . (of course FG & FF could be accused of same) . . for me, their anti-family, pro-abortion policies differentiate them from the others.


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## bugler (2 Apr 2013)

Thanks for the reply, Firefly. It may be true that Labour's presence is inhibiting further public sector paycuts, but like derek I am not that certain FG itself would be on for implementing these, even if it makes sense. I think there is an element within FG that would be, but Irish politics is generally about doing no harm at a superficial level and trying not to rock the boat. That is how you get elected and stay elected.

Also, I get the feeling that the The_Banker or others would probably take the opposite view to you on the need for PS paycuts (cuts being more of the Frankfurt Way) and yet you'd agree on the need for Labour to disintegrate. So it seems all sorts of people want Labour to die for many contrasting, and probably conflicting, reasons.


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## Sunny (2 Apr 2013)

dereko1969 said:


> For some reason Irish people tend to blame the smaller party for the sins of the larger party which goes well with our general political logic.



That's because of the way smaller parties compromise their policies to get into a coalition more than a big party. Labour ran a campaign entitled 'every little hurts' in the media in relation to FG policies. They have failed to stop must of these cuts. FG aren't losing supporters because they are doing what people voted them into do (probably at a slower pace than ideal for some people). Labour supporters rightly or wrongly feel betrayed by Gilmore.


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## Kine (3 Apr 2013)

Either way...anyone but SF


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## celebtastic (3 Apr 2013)

Anyone but SF or Labour

Their unreformed socialist attitudes would destroy the nascent recovery in our economy.

The sooner FG are left unfettered by the bearded brethren, the better.


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## Purple (3 Apr 2013)

celebtastic said:


> Anyone but SF or Labour
> 
> Their unreformed socialist attitudes would destroy the nascent recovery in our economy.
> 
> The sooner FG are left unfettered by the bearded brethren, the better.




Labour are a social democratic party with economic policies that are close to sane and rational. SF are still very close to criminality and have economic policies that are isolationist far removed from reality.
I have no problem with Labour in government, as a minor player in a coalition. I have a major problem with SF anywhere near government.


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## The_Banker (3 Apr 2013)

Purple said:


> Labour are a social democratic party with economic policies that are close to sane and rational. SF are still very close to criminality and have *economic policies that are isolationist far removed from reality*.
> I have no problem with Labour in government, as a minor player in a coalition. I have a major problem with SF anywhere near government.


 
SF are implementing cuts in NI without issue.
They would do it here also if they were in government. Despite what they say.


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## Purple (3 Apr 2013)

The_Banker said:


> SF are implementing cuts in NI without issue.
> They would do it here also if they were in government. Despite what they say.



And that's why left wing parties get hammered when in government; their policies are based on dogma, not reality.


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## blueband (3 Apr 2013)

The_Banker said:


> SF are implementing cuts in NI without issue.
> They would do it here also if they were in government. Despite what they say.


just like labour so!


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## celebtastic (3 Apr 2013)

blueband said:


> just like labour so!


 

What cuts? I thought there was a public sector pay freeze, with no cuts guaranteed.

Howlin searched and searched in the €1bn of allowances, and could only find €30m.

The PS unions must be rubbing their hands with glee everytime they meet thier comrades in such hard nosed negotiations.

We vote for some very feeble politicians in this country. A big part of the issue is multi-seat STR PR. This means that no strong leaders will ever emerge to lead the nation, instead we get the Healy-Raes and unreformed socialists holding the balance of power.


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## dereko1969 (3 Apr 2013)

celebtastic said:


> *What cuts? I thought there was a public sector pay freeze, with no cuts guaranteed.*
> 
> Howlin searched and searched in the €1bn of allowances, and could only find €30m.
> 
> ...


 
Do you even read the papers? What is Croke Park 2 but a pay cut? What about the other cuts that I and many like me have taken since the demise of the "boom"?

Labour - unreformed socialists? Do you even know what a socialist is?


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## Purple (3 Apr 2013)

dereko1969 said:


> Do you even know what a socialist is?



Socialists don't know what socialism is.


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## Duke of Marmalade (3 Apr 2013)

The Mighty Quinn threatened the teachers that if they don't accept CPII he will have no choice but to go after the nurses etc. instead. These Labour guys sure know how to negotiate.

The teachers are overwhelmingly against these pay cuts which kick in after 65K. I infer that the overwhelming number of teachers earn a good deal more than 65K.


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## Purple (3 Apr 2013)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> The Mighty Quinn threatened the teachers that if they don't accept CPII he will have no choice but to go after the nurses etc. instead. These Labour guys sure know how to negotiate.
> 
> The teachers are overwhelmingly against these pay cuts which kick in after 65K. I infer that the overwhelming number of teachers earn a good deal more than 65K.



Well.... that depends on whether you include allowances, positions of responsibility, Dip (basic qualification) allowances, etc.
Wait while basic rates are quoted...


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## Deiseblue (3 Apr 2013)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> The Mighty Quinn threatened the teachers that if they don't accept CPII he will have no choice but to go after the nurses etc. instead. These Labour guys sure know how to negotiate.
> 
> The teachers are overwhelmingly against these pay cuts which kick in after 65K. I infer that the overwhelming number of teachers earn a good deal more than 65K.



1 secondary teacher in every 4 earns more than 65k according to a link posted earlier in the Croke Park 2 thread by Firefly .

The TUI are the only teacher's Union to date who have rejected CP 2 , the pay scales can be accessed at www.tui.ie - the basic scale rises to € 59,395 after 25 years - without allowances , the details of such allowances are also on the website.


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## Purple (4 Apr 2013)

Deiseblue said:


> 1 secondary teacher in every 4 earns more than 65k according to a link posted earlier in the Croke Park 2 thread by Firefly .
> 
> The TUI are the only teacher's Union to date who have rejected CP 2 , the pay scales can be accessed at www.tui.ie - the basic scale rises to € 59,395 after 25 years - without allowances , the details of such allowances are also on the website.


The pay levels with allowances are what matters.


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## Deiseblue (4 Apr 2013)

Purple said:


> The pay levels with allowances are what matters.



Absolutely , that's why I referenced www.tui.ie which gives the allowances as well as the basic salary scale.

It appears likely that the 1 in 4 ratio that applies to ASTI members earning over € 65 k applies equally to TUI members.

Interestingly I saw a post on another site where a teacher had withdrawn from a higher diploma course on the basis that such a degree & the extra allowance that comes with such a degree would bring him over the 65 k threshold , something that will become more prevalent perhaps ?


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