# Links to informed expert comment on The Coronavirus



## snowyb

Pat Kenny Newstalk had an interview with Dr Michael Ryan WHO,  after which Prof John Crown mentioned about ICU beds and the lack of numbers
required.   We need the Chinese to come over here and build a pop up isolation hospital in 9 days,  which they no longer need as the numbers are 
dwindling.  
https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/h...utive-director-health-emergencies-coronavirus

There was a lot of straight talking on Claire Byrne Live show tonight which was needed.
We can't afford to sit on our hands and do nothing as the DCU Prof explained.

Its a reminder of the financial crash predictions in 2008,  which fell on deaf ears.
People need to use their own discretion and lie low as much as possible.

Snowyb


----------



## PMU

This may be a bit technical for some, but it is the best clinical description I've found on Covid-19








						Management of COVID-19 patients admitted to stepdown or ICU
					

CONTENTS Rapid Reference  Initial tests to guide management Organ support Cardiovascular Respiratory Noninvasive respiratory support Invasive mechanical ventilation Infectious disease – antibiotics Renal Hematology Neurology Immunomodulation Steroid Tocilizumab Baricitinib Tofacitinib Things...




					emcrit.org


----------



## jpd

Excellent article - quite technical in places


----------



## odyssey06

_Not sure if this is the right thread but as it is a peer reviewed published study:_
A peer-reviewed  published Friday in the Journal of the American Medical Association identified 14 coronavirus patients *who had diarrhea and nausea before they showed any signs of fever or respiratory symptoms*. That was 10% of the study's 138-person sample size. 








						Some coronavirus patients experience nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea before they get a fever. It could be one of the first signs of COVID-19.
					

Though the virus primarily causes fever and difficulty breathing, digestive symptoms sometimes appear first.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Brendan Burgess

A good Q&A from Harvard Medical School






						Coronavirus Resource Center - Harvard Health
					

As coronavirus continues to spread, many questions and answers    We know a lot more about COVD-19 than we did in 2020 and yet we're still learning. We will continue to provide important updates. You can search previous questions and answers as well as read related blog posts and reference our ...




					www.health.harvard.edu
				




Does the coronavirus spread person-to-person?

What is the incubation period for the coronavirus?

What are the symptoms of the new coronavirus?

Can people who are asymptomatic spread coronavirus?

Can the coronavirus live on soft surfaces like fabric or carpet? What about hard surfaces?

Should I wear a face mask to protect against coronavirus? Should my children?

Should someone who is immunocompromised wear a face mask?

Should I accept packages from China?

Can I catch the coronavirus by eating food prepared by others?

Should I travel on a plane with my children?

Is there a vaccine available for coronavirus?

Is there a treatment available for the new coronavirus?

How is this new coronavirus confirmed?

How deadly is this coronavirus?

What should people do if they think they have coronavirus or their child does? Go to an urgent care clinic? Go to the ER?

Can people who recover from the coronavirus still be carriers and therefore spread it?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

The Mayo Clinic is also a good source 











						COVID-19 - Mayo Clinic News Network
					

COVID-19 archive.




					newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org


----------



## dereko1969

This seems to have some good information








						Flatten the Curve
					

These guidelines are intended to help Flatten the Curve with the COVID19 outbreak, to help limit spread and reduce the load on hospitals and other healthcare.




					www.flattenthecurve.com


----------



## odyssey06

The majority of coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to [broken link removed], scientists have found. An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free. The finding has dismayed infectious disease researchers as it means that isolating people once they start to feel ill will be far less effective at slowing the pandemic than had been hoped.








						Coronavirus: many infections spread by people yet to show symptoms – scientists
					

Findings mean that isolating people once they start to feel ill is less effective than hoped




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## hydrocarbon

odyssey06 said:


> The majority of coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to [broken link removed], scientists have found. An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free. The finding has dismayed infectious disease researchers as it means that isolating people once they start to feel ill will be far less effective at slowing the pandemic than had been hoped.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: many infections spread by people yet to show symptoms – scientists
> 
> 
> Findings mean that isolating people once they start to feel ill is less effective than hoped
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



Very interesting. An article on the German study referenced can be found here:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/09...-likely-not-infectious-after-recovery-begins/

Basically the WHO etc. were really set up to fight the last war - a repeat of SARS, since all recommendations started with "if you show symptoms then....". I think social distancing is now the main weapon needed, along with widespread/blanket testing to allow for quicker isolation.


----------



## odyssey06

Guardian article: Respiratory physician John Wilson explains the range of Covid-19 impacts, from no symptoms to severe illness featuring pneumonia...

When people with Covid-19 develop a cough and fever, Wilson says this is a result of the infection reaching the respiratory tree – the air passages that conduct air between the lungs and the outside. He says: “The lining of the respiratory tree becomes injured, causing inflammation. This in turn irritates the nerves in the lining of the airway. Just a speck of dust can stimulate a cough.

[broken link removed]


----------



## odyssey06

The Pros and Cons of school closures:








						Markets fall again as global Covid-19 cases near 130,000 – as it happened
					

Stock markets plunge again; number of cases nears 130,000 around world; Canadian PM Justin Trudeau self-isolating. This blog is closed




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## odyssey06

Medical authorities in China have said a drug used in Japan to treat new strains of influenza appeared to be effective in coronavirus patients, Japanese media said on Wednesday. Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients.








						Japanese flu drug 'clearly effective' in treating coronavirus, says China
					

Shares in Fujifilm Toyama Chemical, which developed favipiravir, surged after praise by Chinese official




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## odyssey06

The Guardian, on the difficulties of new vaccine development:
[broken link removed]


----------



## mmclo

two good you-tubers, started following in Jan as was going to Japan, thought they were a bit alarmists but everything they have said has come to pass!

https://youtu.be/C-0Es0RKiU4









						Coronavirus Pandemic Update 40: Ibuprofen and COVID-19 (are NSAIDs safe?), Trials of HIV medications
					

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update 40 with critical care specialist Roger Seheult, MD of https://www.MedCram.com Controversy surrounding the use of NSAID medicati...




					youtu.be


----------



## odyssey06

“To actually stop the virus, [China] had to do rapid testing of any suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for 14 days so that they could figure out if any of them were infected,” WHO expert Bruce Aylward told _New Scientist _in an exclusive interview. “Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China, not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.”
“In some countries they’re not even testing them. They’re saying if you have a cough and high fever, stay at home,” says Aylward. “But the problem then is that they don’t know that they have the disease, they haven’t had it confirmed. After a couple of days people get bored, go out for a walk and go shopping and get other people infected. If you know you’re infected you’re more likely to isolate yourself.”
This is a particular problem with covid-19 because up to 80 per cent of those infected may have only mild or moderate symptoms. “If those people are all out of hospital, most of your cases are at home, but not isolated,” says Aylward. “In China, they found that didn’t work. They had to get them isolated in hospitals or dormitories or stadiums. The main goal was to keep them from getting bored.”

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/articl...re-testing-to-beat-coronavirus/#ixzz6HQKkmgLw


----------



## odyssey06

BBC article on the risks to different demographics








						Coronavirus, schools and children - what are the risks?
					

How much do children contribute to the spread of Covid?



					www.bbc.com


----------



## odyssey06

Researchers in the US shed light on a crucial biological mechanism that has helped the coronavirus spread rapidly among humans around the world.
A detailed analysis of the virus’s structure revealed that its club-like “spikes” enable it to latch on to human cells about four times more strongly than the related Sars coronavirus which killed hundreds of people in a 2002 pandemic. This means that coronavirus particles that are inhaled through the nose or mouth have a high chance of attaching to cells in the upper respiratory tract, and that relatively few are needed to establish an infection.








						New coronavirus study reveals increased risks from middle age
					

First comprehensive study of deaths and hospitalisations in mainland China shows just how much of a factor age is




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## odyssey06

A study of over 70,000 cases of Covid-19 in China has determined a death rate from the virus at *1.38%*, lower than previous estimates...
Nearly *one in five over-80s infected with Covid -19 are likely to require hospitalisation*, compared with around 1% of people under 30, according to the study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal. 








						Major study of Covid-19 cases in China finds lower death rate than previous estimates
					

A study of over 70,000 cases of Covid-19 in China has determined a death rate from the virus of 1.38%.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Firefly

This is a little old now but a fascinating read









						Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
					

Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?




					medium.com


----------



## odyssey06

*Ireland's coronavirus strains:* 
Sequencing identifies one linked to Wuhan but most similar to European strains... There have been some suggestions that the strain of Covid-19 in countries like Italy and Spain is more aggressive and that this may be the more prevalent strain in Ireland, but De Gascun said it is “too early to say”. 








						Ireland's coronavirus strains: Sequencing identifies one linked to Wuhan but most similar to European strains
					

Sequencing work will now focus on clusters in the community.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## odyssey06

Studies suggest Coronavirus impact worse in colder weather:








						Covid-19 is worse in cold weather, research suggests
					

Experts warn that their findings paint a grim picture for the colder weather, when it is thought the disease may re-emerge.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Mackem

“Experts warn that their findings paint a grim picture for the colder weather, when it is thought the disease may re-emerge”.

From where is it going to re-emerge ?. It’s not as if it has gone away or likely to go away any time soon.


----------



## odyssey06

Covid-19 may enter the body by targeting part of nose responsible for smell, new research suggests...
Its findings may also show why so many people who contract Covid-19 lose their sense of smell, but show no other symptoms of the virus. 









						Covid-19 may enter the body by targeting part of nose responsible for smell, new research suggests
					

The study may also offer clues as to why Covid-19 is so infectious.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## odyssey06

Study tracks spread of virus on poorly ventilated virus beyond 2 metre distance...

A person on a poorly ventilated Chinese bus infected nearly two dozen other passengers with coronavirus even though many were not sitting close by, according to a study published today.

The scientists managed to map out where the other passengers sat, and also test them for the virus, with 23 of 68 passengers subsequently confirmed as infected on the same bus.

Researchers also noted the air conditioning simply recirculated the air inside the bus, which likely contributed to spreading of the virus.

Journey occured before mask wearing became common.









						New evidence of airborne coronavirus spread - study
					

In China, a person on a bus described as "poorly ventilated" infected nearly two dozen other passengers with coronavirus even though many weren't sitting close by, according to a study published today.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## joe sod

very dubious and untrustworthy and raises a few issues. Firstly it said this bus journey took place in January but when in January? The Wuhan lockdown began on 23 January and the Chinese informed us that they uniquely and successfully contained the virus within Wuhan  in one of the most densely populated countries on the planet.  However the city Ningbo where this bus was travelling is 1000km from Wuhan and they are now telling us that 23 of the bus passengers subsequently tested positive for corona virus. It was a 50 minute bus trip so the journey did not start in Wuhan that is inconsistent with their claims that there was no spread of virus outside of Wuhan ,  where did the 23 infected passengers go ? Presumably they expect us to believe that straight away they realised the danger of corona virus and managed to track all these passengers and their contacts while at the same time locking down Wuhan.    I DONT BELIEVE IT


----------



## odyssey06

The bus journey was 19 january... the patient zero was in contact with someone from Wuhan.
Details of the track and trace of passengers here:


----------



## odyssey06

Study into why covid-19 is more infectious than SARS.

_A receptor called neuropilin-1 gives the novel coronavirus a leg-up in infecting our tissues. This particular protein is relatively abundant on cells lining the nasal cavity, making it a piece of cake for the virus to establish a home inside our bodies, raise a virus family, and then spread to a new host._






						Researchers Discover a Second 'Key' That Makes The New Coronavirus So Infectious
					

It's been 17 years since the coronavirus SARS-CoV threatened to erupt into a global pandemic.




					www.sciencealert.com


----------



## odyssey06

Inflight transmission of Covid-19 may have resulted in the infection of 59 people across Ireland – including 13 passengers on the same long-distance flight – according to a new study. The outbreak occurred despite low levels of occupancy on the flight from the Middle East to Ireland during the summer, a study published in a European journal has found... The study – which does not identify the airline or departure point – found that *the virus spread on the plane despite only 49 (17%) of the plane’s 283 seats being occupied*.








						Covid-19 transmission aboard flight into Ireland linked to 59 cases during the summer
					

The outbreak occurred despite low levels of occupancy aboard the flight from the Middle East to Ireland during the summer.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## odyssey06

Typical mouthwash such as Listerine shown to reduce viral load in mouths of infected patients, may de-risk dental treatments and be of benefit in situations where caring for an infected person in same household.


----------



## odyssey06

Danish study indicates 15% of coronavirus patients in hospitals admitted for other reasons.








						The Copenhagen Post - Danish News in English
					

Nye Borgerlige rubbishes claims the healthcare system might be overloaded – the primary justification for the recent restrictions. A seventh of those hospitalised with the coronavirus admitted for other reasons




					cphpost.dk


----------



## odyssey06

A coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly through much of [broken link removed] since the summer, and now accounts for the majority of new Covid-19 cases in several countries– *and 60 per cent in Ireland. *









						Majority of Irish Covid-19 cases come from variant that originated in Spain – study
					

Variant originated in farm workers and has spread rapidly through much of Europe since summer




					www.irishtimes.com


----------



## odyssey06

Good explainer in the Journal on the accuracy of PCR testing and why it may sometimes fail to detect a positive case such as insufficient viral load on swab








						Debunked: No, the HSE hasn't said its coronavirus testing method is useless
					

The PCR test is globally recognised as the gold standard method for detecting the coronavirus.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## john luc

Begs the question, are all variants of the corona virus that are currently floating around known as covid 19.


----------



## Purple

john luc said:


> Begs the question, are all variants of the corona virus that are currently floating around known as covid 19.


There are lots of Coronaviruses. Of the multiple different viruses known collectively as the Common Cold 4 are Corona Viruses. They have been around for hundreds, and in some cases thousands, of years. As Covid19 is an RNA virus (as is the case with all Corona Viruses) it is less likely than other DNA viruses to mutate into a new (Novel) disease. Therefore while there is genetic variation meaningful mutation is unlikely. The fewer cases the less likely that is to happen and, or course, the converse is true.


----------



## odyssey06

Copying from the discussion thread on schools (please discuss there), linking to a study from Iceland tracking lower infections in children.









						Exclusive: We finally know how much kids spread coronavirus. Here’s how it can help schools.
					

Big decisions around COVID-19 and children have been heavy on politics and short on science. New large-scale studies are changing that.




					www.nationalgeographic.com


----------



## odyssey06

From the Irish Times:
Ireland eliminated Covid-19 variants circulating in the first wave through lockdown measures and the second wave was seeded by variants imported from abroad, a new scientific report shows.
The study, comparing virus types in the first and second waves from hospitalised cases of the disease seen at four hospitals, found that an “effective” first lockdown led to the disappearance of first-wave viruses. The second wave began from variants of the virus linked to those found outside Ireland, “suggesting multiple introductions through travel during the summer of 2020”.









						Travel was ‘significant contributor’ to second Covid-19 wave – study
					

First-wave virus variants ‘disappeared’ during ‘effective’ first lockdown, research finds




					www.irishtimes.com


----------



## EasilyAmused

I thought the "second wave" was in autumn 2020 and the third wave in late 2020/early 2021?
Having said that, the wave in autumn 2020 was relatively benign, so if you ignore that...


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

On Sky News now Chris Whitty , England's CMO is saying that "all the modelling suggests that there will be a surge in Covid-19 once the UK opens up" 
Additionally he said that there could be an additional 30,000 deaths. 

He wasn't specific on when this would happen saying "it could be Summer or Autumn ".

Not the most optimistic news unfortunately.


----------



## EasilyAmused

I heard the 30,000 figure on the Boris provided his timeline. 
IIRC that’s the expected death  toll between between now and 18 months


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

EasilyAmused said:


> I heard the 30,000 figure on the Boris provided his timeline.
> IIRC that’s the expected death  toll between between now and 18 months


From what I saw there wasn't a timeline, and the Head of Modelling, Vallance said that once restrictions are lifted the UK it will be difficult to know what the effects will be on transmission etc.

It's curious that with their vaccine rollout going so well they would be so cautious.


----------



## odyssey06

This might explain some of the weird results where some family members are infected but not all...
_
A new study suggests that the common cold virus could offer some level of protection against Covid-19.
Research published by scientists at the [broken link removed] found that rhinovirus, which causes the common cold, triggers an immune response that appears to block SARS-CoV-2 replicating in cells of the respiratory tract. Further mathematical calculations studies showed that this virus-virus interaction could have a population-wide effect and that an increasing prevalence of rhinovirus could reduce the number of new Covid-19 cases._









						Common cold infection might provide some level of protection against Covid, study finds
					

Increasing prevalence of common cold virus could reduce number of new Covid-19 cases, scientists say, but more research needed




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Purple

odyssey06 said:


> This might explain some of the weird results where some family members are infected but not all...
> 
> _A new study suggests that the common cold virus could offer some level of protection against Covid-19.
> Research published by scientists at the [broken link removed] found that rhinovirus, which causes the common cold, triggers an immune response that appears to block SARS-CoV-2 replicating in cells of the respiratory tract. Further mathematical calculations studies showed that this virus-virus interaction could have a population-wide effect and that an increasing prevalence of rhinovirus could reduce the number of new Covid-19 cases._
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Common cold infection might provide some level of protection against Covid, study finds
> 
> 
> Increasing prevalence of common cold virus could reduce number of new Covid-19 cases, scientists say, but more research needed
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.independent.co.uk


While it's interesting news it's a very misleading headline. Rhinovirus is one of a large number of viruses which cause the "common cold". It is responsible for 30-50% of common cold infections. Therefore 30-50% of common colds could offer some level of protection.


----------



## Purple

In the context of being allowed outside etc I thought this from the  might be of interest. It's kind of stating the bleedin' obvious but sometimes that's necessary.


----------



## odyssey06

Study on the effectiveness of the introduction of mandatory masks in Melbourne...

_Co-lead author Dr Nick Scott said the introduction of mandatory mask use by the Victorian Government on 22 July 2020 while Stage 3 restrictions were in place, *turned an exponential increase in community transmission into an exponential decrease, almost overnight.*
“We had a unique situation in Melbourne where masks were made mandatory as a single policy change, and compliance went from low use to very high use of masks in the community very rapidly,” Dr Scott, Head of Burnet’s Modelling and Biostatistics Group, said.






						World-first study shows effectiveness of masks in preventing COVID transmission
					

Burnet research shows how the mandating of masks during Melbourne’s second wave in 2020 'turned the epidemic around'.



					www.burnet.edu.au
				



_


----------

