# Labour at 6%



## Purple (28 Apr 2014)

Labour are now at 6% in the polls. This despite sticking reasonably close to the programme for government that they agreed with Fine Gael and having some high profile ministers.
Joan Burton has done a good job, maybe an excellent job, as minister for Social Protection (terribly Orwellian name for a Department).
Brendan Howlin has done almost nothing to reform the Public Sector so that should keep a large chunk of Labours core supporters happy. 
Ruairi Quinn is perhaps the most controversial Labour has been the most controversial minister due to his reform agenda but is probably a victim of circumstance to some extent as the Unions seek to reverse their own shafting of new entrants to the sector. 
Eamonn Gilmore has been quite low profile as leaders. His sycophantic fawning at the heels of the UK Queen was stomach turning but was vastly overshadowed by that far more extreme manifestation of the same by our President. Given that Labour have a middleclass urban support base I don’t see why such behaviour would have a major impact on their ratings.

So why the collapse? Is it simply that Leftwing parties always do badly in government? Is it the fact that reality requires hard choices and that Socialism (or whatever version of it Labour now espouse) is just too far from reality to work in practice?
I see posters from People Against Logic (AKA People Against Profit) and the Socialist Party where I live with stupid meaningless slogans like “Enough is Enough”. This is where Labour’s support is going; there is now another option for people who don’t like reality. They can vote for the Loony Left and the Shinners. Bad timing for a party that thrives in the rhetoric of illogical idealism while in opposition but now finds itself in power.
The reality is that Labour have done quite a good job in government but Labour doesn’t sell reality so it’s supporters are following someone else’s yellow brick road to sunshine and unicorn land.


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## Sunny (28 Apr 2014)

The problem for Labour is that they are losing the middle class vote. They are being decimated in Dublin. I posted this a while back and it is coming back to bite them. 

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=185913

Even in the recent Justice controversies which would usually be heaven sent for Labour (protecting whistle blowers), they were very very weak. 

Will be interesting to see at the next election if the current trend towards independents will continue or will people still vote for the traditional parties.


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## Time (28 Apr 2014)

I would sooner vote for SF before considering Labour.

They need to go the same way of the greens, into the wilderness.


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## Purple (28 Apr 2014)

Time said:


> I would sooner vote for SF before considering Labour.
> 
> They need to go the same way of the greens, into the wilderness.



I'd vote for Labour any day of the week before I'd vote for the Shinners. I quite like the Greens; they remained true to their values and their TD's were intelligent, articulate and decent people. We could do with a few more like them.


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## Latrade (28 Apr 2014)

I just think that the minority party always gets the hit in coalitions. 

They tend not to have the same large core of  [strike]miopic[/strike] dedicated voters (hence being minorities) and those transient voters abandon them. I guess the transient voters also (probably unfairly) blame them for not having enough influence at government, but the reality is that these parties are only ever important immediately after an election as they're courted into a coalition. After that they simply don't have the votes to have any sustainable power.


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Apr 2014)

My read is that Labour are not so much middle class as middle income but especially public service middle income.  What have Labour achieved in government?  To me they have maintained social protection rates, that is their main mark and that is a commendable achievement by their own ideological standards.  But it shows electoral naivite.  If you're out of work you support a protest party such as SF or the Indos, there is no gratitude electoral dividend in maintaining SW rates.  

Their core support - middle income PS - feel really cheesed off.  They believe that they have been the main victims of the adjustment.  They may even be resentful that things are starting to turn up for the Private Sector, after they making the main sacrifices.

If anything underpins this analysis it is the vicious reception given by the teachers' unions to a Labour minister.  Teachers traditionally are died in the wool Labour supporters.  If a Labour minister gets that treatment from a teachers' union, the game is up.


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## battybrennan (29 Apr 2014)

Wage cuts / freezes, draconian changes to entitlement to sick leave, more and more ways to take money from you eg. water tax etc,   - no wonder they're down. A person who once upon a time might have considered themselves to have a decent salary finds it harder and harder to live on it & make ends meet. I see people with 'on paper' a good salary finding it difficult to keep on top of bills.
A constant effort to change conditions of work, to make you do more more more for less less less. No wonder they're down.   Where will it end??
I wouldn't vote for them.


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## Delboy (29 Apr 2014)

Purple said:


> I quite like the Greens; they remained true to their values and their TD's were intelligent, articulate and decent people. We could do with a few more like them.



intelligent!!! They propped FF up during the bank bailout/guarantee period....giving their nod of approval in late night phone calls without having a clue what they were agreeing to!!!
They had Paul Gogarty amongst them!!! Paul Gogarty!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugailEn8U5o


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## Firefly (29 Apr 2014)

Some very good and interesting points here. We've had some posters here previously on the left calling for higher taxes rather than cutting pay and the dole to bridge the gap. We're now seeing that this is not so popular afterall. 

I've a feeling that Labour are nowhere near 6%. They may get a hammering in the local elections, but come the main event, they will still get re-elected. The PS know that Labour are the best shot they have. The Sinners and the other loonie groups represent those on the dole and on low wages, both of who don't vote in large numbers. 

On the economy side, I can see a two-tier economy emerging in the short-to-medium term. The private sector is showing signs of recovery, however, I think that for the most part this will translate into higher wages for people already working and an increase in immigration for highly specialised roles, relative to the numbers coming off the dole, (unless something like building takes off again where those on the dole can easily slot in). The impact of this will be that the extra tax earned by those getting higher wages still won't come even close to bridging the current deficit and so the government will still be broke for all intents and purposes, whilst those working will see wages rise. This will result in even more pressure being put on the government buy the unions to increase PS pay, but the money just won't be there.....the numbers in the PS and the rates of dole payments are just too high. Eventually, perhaps many of those in the PS will just get fed up and leave to seek alternative employment.


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## werner (29 Apr 2014)

Delboy said:


> intelligent!!! They propped FF up during the bank bailout/guarantee period....giving their nod of approval in late night phone calls without having a clue what they were agreeing to!!!
> They had Paul Gogarty amongst them!!! Paul Gogarty!!!!
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugailEn8U5o


 

They truly were and the rememnats still are, the most incompetent bunch of vegetables ever inflicted on politics!


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## werner (29 Apr 2014)

Purple said:


> Labour are now at 6% in the polls. This despite sticking reasonably close to the programme for government that they agreed with Fine Gael and having some high profile ministers.
> Joan Burton has done a good job, maybe an excellent job, as minister for Social Protection (terribly Orwellian name for a Department).
> Brendan Howlin has done almost nothing to reform the Public Sector so that should keep a large chunk of Labours core supporters happy.
> Ruairi Quinn is perhaps the most controversial Labour has been the most controversial minister due to his reform agenda but is probably a victim of circumstance to some extent as the Unions seek to reverse their own shafting of new entrants to the sector.
> ...


 
Labour have done a terrible job in government.

The electorate were promised a new way of "doing politics" and both FG/Labour had massive public support to do so.

In return every election pledge by Labour was dumped by them and FG attacked middle income earners ferociously for numerous stealth taxes, LPT and its new HSE style quango of Irish Water.

Both parties’ had a wonderful opportunity to make politics ethical moral and fair, instead they are utterly the same gutter politics as practised by Fianna Fail, sleazy cronyism coupled with even worse unfair regressive taxes that have hurt the poor and the lowest income earners the most.
They will now pay for it beginning in May. Labour will be decimated with Fine Gael receiving only its core vote.


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## Delboy (29 Apr 2014)

Pat Rabbitte's admission that election pledges are just stuff you say in the run up to elections will haunt him and this current bunch for the next few years.
Even if the context in which he said is not how it was played in the media, it will always be held up against them.

That gaff, and the 'Labour's way or Frankfurt's way' + 'every little hurts' campaign = election wipe out for Labour, incl at the next general election IMO.

Independents and the Shinners are the big winners out of all of this. They've yet to get into power and so are 'untainted' by the economic crash and subsequent cuts. If they got in tomorrow, their poll ratings would be on the floor within a couple of years also


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## Purple (29 Apr 2014)

Delboy said:


> intelligent!!! They propped FF up during the bank bailout/guarantee period....giving their nod of approval in late night phone calls without having a clue what they were agreeing to!!!



Do you really think that Ministers with Local Government and Environment briefs should be up to speed, or in a position to second guess, the Minister for Finance, the "Experts" from the Department of Finance and the Central Bank?


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## Purple (29 Apr 2014)

werner said:


> Labour have done a terrible job in government.
> 
> The electorate were promised a new way of "doing politics" and both FG/Labour had massive public support to do so.
> 
> ...



It was FG who promised electoral reform. They have delivered very little of it but still more than FF did.
Can you specify what election promises were made and dumped by Labour? I remember them promising that core welfare rates would be untouched. They have delivered on that. I’m not sure what else they promised. The Frankfurt’s way etc quote was stupid but every party says stupid things.
Labour are nominally a “working class” party. The income tax burden falls disproportionally heavily on high earners in Ireland and that has remained the case under this government. Indirect taxes are also very low by international standards. The “hurt the poor” and “the most vulnerable in society” rubbish by the brainless mutton-heads in the Socialist Party and People before Logic  means nothing and doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.


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## Conan (30 Apr 2014)

Whilst not a Labour supporter, I think they deserve a lot of credit for implementing policies that were far from populist ( but necessary to bring the country back from the brink of bankruptcy). After 3 years of harsh economic medication we can now see that the patient's vital signs are much more positive. 

Labour could easily have insisted on following policies we now see proposed by the raving looney groups (no water taxes, no property taxes, no USC, increased SW benefits, tell the ECB to get lost etc etc etc), which would by now see Ireland Inc in total penury. 

Unfortunately, if opinion polls are to be believed, the nut cases are getting closer to running the asylum. If our future political leaders are to comprise convicted gun runners, alleged murders, tax dodgers and a collection of fruit cakes (with or without the "pot") then our Republic will truly have earned the "banana" monicker. 

Coming back from the disaster inherited from FF, it was never going to be popular implementing policies designed to bring balance to the economic books. But unless the nut cases have discovered a tooth fairy or a very large pot of gold at the end of some rainbow, then their Disney economic policies only work in attracting the support of the deluded. Hopefully we won't have to see proof of their delusional state by actually implementing any of their policies.


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## cork (12 May 2014)

Labour made so many false promises prior to the election.

Burning bondholders, 3rd level capitation fees etc - no wonder people are angry with them.

I don't think their liberal social policies will win them much support either.


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## Conan (12 May 2014)

Cork, that would be fine if Labour won the election. Then they could be rightly criticised if they did not implement their promises. But the electorate decided not to give any party an absolute majority. So the result was bound to be that Labour supporters would not be fully happy, FG supporters would equally not be fully happy and SF, FF, PBP and the rest of the permanently negative cliche ridden groups would be totally unhappy.
But hey, that's democracy. Voters must remember that we get the Government we elect. So nobody gets all they want.


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## cremeegg (14 May 2014)

Irish politics is reverting to its long term pattern. A division between a party that seeks change through incremental improvements to existing institutions and processes and a party that seeks to discard the existing scheme of things and build afresh.

This was the division in Irish politics from the famine on with The Fenians on one side and the irish Party on the other.

Fianna Fail may have obscured this division being instinctively anti-establishment but becoming institutionalised by their long time in power after 1932, but we are reverting to our natural division.

The next general election will deliver confusion with no party or group able to form a stable government, the election after that, which may follow quickly, will offer the Irish people a clear choice between a Fine Gael lead group and a Sinn Fein group, I believe that FF will go with their instincts and ultimately support SF.

If the SFers get power how long will it take then to become an establishment party. Less than it took FF or the Workers Party I predict.


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## Duke of Marmalade (14 May 2014)

_PaddyPower_ betting on government after next election:

 FG/FF    Evens
 FG/Lab  2/1
 FF/SF    6/1

 25/1 others


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## Purple (26 May 2014)

Is Gilmore for the high-jump?
Will the next leader be of Labour Party stock or will there be another Workers Party/ Democratic Left leader?


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## Delboy (26 May 2014)

It's kicking off!



> Letter sent to Labour's Parliamentary Party chairman,
> 
> Motion the PLP
> 
> ...


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## Time (26 May 2014)

2 motions of no confidence now placed.


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## Purple (26 May 2014)

He's jumping at 4PM.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0526/619609-reshuffle/


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## Sunny (26 May 2014)

Wonder will he give up his Ministry?


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## Delboy (26 May 2014)

Frankfurt's way it is so!


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## TarfHead (26 May 2014)

Time for Joan Burton to show her hand.

Be careful of what you wish for  !


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## Sunny (26 May 2014)

TarfHead said:


> Time for Joan Burton to show her hand.
> 
> Be careful of what you wish for  !


 
I know. I think I heard the collective groan from FG ministers from here. I wonder if she will get it. Obvious choice but I wonder if she is a bit too combative for some in Labour.


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## Delboy (26 May 2014)

Stop haranguing Joan!


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## TarfHead (26 May 2014)

The only thing that can stop Sinn Féin now is for them to go into Government as junior partner in a Coalition .


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## dereko1969 (26 May 2014)

Joan Burton is far and away Labour's best option, Howlin just seems inherently smug. She's done a great job at DSP to my mind.


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## so-crates (26 May 2014)

tarfhead said:


> the only thing that can stop sinn féin now is for them to go into government as junior partner in a coalition :d.


Good one .


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## Purple (26 May 2014)

Delboy said:


> Frankfurt's way it is so!



Lol.  
Post of the week!


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## Purple (26 May 2014)

dereko1969 said:


> joan burton is far and away labour's best option, howlin just seems inherently smug. She's done a great job at dsp to my mind.



+1


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## cremeegg (26 May 2014)

The only chance for labour is to go down a generation. Alex White, Arthur Spring. JB has been Gilmores Deputy, she represents more of the same.

However there is no getting away from their basic problem. Middle class voices expressing working class concerns. The workers want working class accents now.


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## Purple (26 May 2014)

cremeegg said:


> The only chance for labour is to go down a generation. Alex White, Arthur Spring. JB has been Gilmores Deputy, she represents more of the same.
> 
> However there is no getting away from their basic problem. Middle class voices expressing working class concerns. The workers want working class accents now.



The middle class is the working class. The "wurkers" are the low paid and long-term unemployed class.


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## Duke of Marmalade (26 May 2014)

Paddy Power:

Joan Burton      2/5
Brendan Howlin 15/8
Alex White        8/1


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## Purple (26 May 2014)

Sunny said:


> Obvious choice but I wonder if she is a bit too combative for some in Labour.


 Labour could do with a bit of that though.


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## Delboy (26 May 2014)

Alex White as the compromise candidate I reckon.

As for Arthur Spring...are you serious. Former Anglo middle mgmt- the oposition would have a field day


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## Purple (26 May 2014)

Delboy said:


> Stop haranguing Joan!



I missed that one!


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## The_Banker (26 May 2014)

Poisoned chalice if ever there was one...


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## Delboy (26 May 2014)

Labour bods all lining up tonight to say Govt needs to change direction, stop cuts etc etc. Last time I checked we were still borrowing sveral billion a year just to balance the books!!! Don't know where they think the goodies are going to come from


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## Conan (27 May 2014)

Delboy said:


> Labour bods all lining up tonight to say Govt needs to change direction, stop cuts etc etc. Last time I checked we were still borrowing sveral billion a year just to balance the books!!! Don't know where they think the goodies are going to come from



Delboy, the answer is simple according SF, Ruth Coppinger, People Against Profit etc .....just confiscate the wealth of the thousands of millionaires (e.g. Seanie Fitz, Sean Dunne, Sean Quinn and the thousands of other such property developers........or are they all bankrupt????)
I saw Ruth on Vinny Browne using a Bank of Ireland report from 2006 to demonstrate how many millionaires we have only for Vinny to remind her that this was seven years ago when everybody was a millionaire. She seems not to understand that our millionaire population has somewhat diminished over recent years. 
So if that does not work we can just default on our borrowings and then go back to the market for new lending (because robbing the Northern Bank wont be sufficient anymore). 
Regrettably after the weekend, the lunatics are getting closer to running the asylum.


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## Firefly (27 May 2014)

Conan said:


> Delboy, the answer is simple according SF, Ruth Coppinger, People Against Profit etc .....just confiscate the wealth of the thousands of millionaires



I really hope they watch this www.youtube.com/watch?v=661pi6K-8WQ

as posted by Chris moons ago. Chris...you still there?


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## Purple (27 May 2014)

Conan said:


> Delboy, the answer is simple according SF, Ruth Coppinger, People Against Profit etc .....just confiscate the wealth of the thousands of millionaires (e.g. Seanie Fitz, Sean Dunne, Sean Quinn and the thousands of other such property developers........or are they all bankrupt????)
> I saw Ruth on Vinny Browne using a Bank of Ireland report from 2006 to demonstrate how many millionaires we have only for Vinny to remind her that this was seven years ago when everybody was a millionaire. She seems not to understand that our millionaire population has somewhat diminished over recent years.
> So if that does not work we can just default on our borrowings and then go back to the market for new lending (because robbing the Northern Bank wont be sufficient anymore).
> Regrettably after the weekend, the lunatics are getting closer to running the asylum.


Or just tax everyone earning over €100'000 a year at 60%. That'll sort things out! The fact that people earning that sort of money are already paying about €41'000 of it in income tax doesn't seem to bother them. Add to that the fact that many of them are servicing large debts which they would then default on isn't a problem either.
Then there's the "super rich". They are all evil because they have large incomes and assets. They must have gotten their wealth by exploiting the "wurkers". There's no chance that they have worked very hard, taken risks with their own money (and probably their family home) and dealt with massive levels of stress to get where they are. No, they are just plain bad. Therefore they should be taxed out of existence. Will they just say "bugger this" and go and live in a civilised country, taking their wealth and the jobs they provide with them? No, surely not!
How many of these people are there? Well according to Revenue in 2012 there were 450 people in Ireland, or with significant investments in Ireland, worth over €50 million. They are the super rich. 54 of them have already become tax exiles (or always were). How many more will leave if their tax rate goes to 60%?


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## Sunny (27 May 2014)

Maybe I am very innocent but I don't believe that the majority of people actually believe that jacking up income taxes is the way to get the economy back on track. To be honest, I don't think Sinn Fein really believe it either. 

It's very easy to poke holes in Sinn Fein's economic policies because there are huge holes in it but they don't have a monolopy on crazy economic strategies. It was FG who decided to tax people who just happened to have a pension fund sitting around. That wasn't a million miles away from what was seen in crackpot economies like Argentina. 
Giving medical cards to every under 6 in the Country no matter how wealthy or sick they are is another FG idea that most socialist parties would be proud of. 
Giving child benefit to everyone if they need it or not is another item that has been protected by successive Governments.

Could go on and on.....Is what Sinn Fein is promising now really any different to what Labour did before the last election. Remember, no third level fees, we will burn bondholders, no water charges, no increase in VAT, no cuts in child benefit, no increase in Dirt....................


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## Duke of Marmalade (27 May 2014)

cremeegg said:


> The only chance for labour is to go down a generation. Alex White, Arthur Spring. JB has been Gilmores Deputy, she represents more of the same.
> 
> However there is no getting away from their basic problem. Middle class voices expressing working class concerns. The workers want working class accents now.


OMG I shuda listened to you creme!!  Alex White now 5/4 with PaddyPower.  He was available at 8/1 when you wrote this post.

Joan the Haranguer is still marginal fav at 6/5, but this looks to me a slam dunk for AW, but at 5/4??


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## Sunny (27 May 2014)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> OMG I shuda listened to you creme!!  Alex White now 5/4 with PaddyPower.  He was available at 8/1 when you wrote this post.
> 
> Joan the Haranguer is still marginal fav at 6/5, but this looks to me a slam dunk for AW, but at 5/4??



Joan will get it. Alex White will be deputy leader. There is nothing in it for younger members to become leader now. Let Joan off the leash until the next election and then see where Labour stands. It's her last chance to be leader. The others can afford to wait. Anyway, Isn't Alex a barrister? Not exactly working class.


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## Purple (27 May 2014)

Sunny said:


> Anyway, Isn't Alex a barrister? Not exactly working class.


Perfect Labour Party credentials so!

The next leader will be their Neil Kinnock; there to rebuild the party (did I hear that there were only 4500 members nationally?) and allow the next leader to take the reigns untainted by the past.


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## Sunny (27 May 2014)

Purple said:


> Perfect Labour Party credentials so!
> 
> The next leader will be their Neil Kinnock; there to rebuild the party (did I hear that there were only 4500 members nationally?) and allow the next leader to take the reigns untainted by the past.



Are you suggesting that Labour might have forgotten their roots??  I am shocked that anyone could think that any political party would sell out!!


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## Delboy (27 May 2014)

1 old, 1 young.
Alex or Joan for leader (this could be Joan's last chance even if the next leader is on a hiding to nothing aka David Moyes).
Alan Kelly will go flat out for deputy as it will set him up nicely to be the Louis Van Gaal after that. He's uber ambitious, extremley confident even arrogant and would make even an FF'er blush...see his extra trains on the Ballybrophy line after getting the junior transport job- a mini bus would handle the loads for a fraction of the cost.
The ultra liberal northsider, Aedain O'Riordain will push hard for Deputy also. He may despise backward culchies, esp the in-laws in Cavan, but he prob believes they'll all come round to his ideals if he has a big title!


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## blueband (27 May 2014)

one thing is for sure, if joan gets it labour finished!


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## delgirl (28 May 2014)

People want change, new ideas and younger people and they're not going to get that with Joan Burton.

Alex White is to me the only capable candidate for the job and I hope he gets it.


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## Delboy (28 May 2014)

delgirl said:


> People want change, new ideas and younger people and they're not going to get that with Joan Burton.
> 
> Alex White is to me the only capable candidate for the job and I hope he gets it.



Ivan Yates had some good internal gossip from Labour this AM and apparently Alex is in the bad books with the senior party Apparatchiks. Gilmore has looked after him at every turn, giving him good jobs and promotions along the way over the past few years. And how does he repay it...he jumps into bed with the a few junior TD's and signs the motion to have Gilmore kicked out!
Fuming with him apparently


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## Purple (28 May 2014)

Sunny said:


> Are you suggesting that Labour might have forgotten their roots??



Not at all; they were always a party of upper-middle income urban liberals.
After they were taken over by Democratic Left they did have some actual "Wurking Class" members but they soon became indistinguishable from the farmers to the other animals looking in the window. Eventually "The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which"


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## Sunny (28 May 2014)

Delboy said:


> Ivan Yates had some good internal gossip from Labour this AM and apparently Alex is in the bad books with the senior party Apparatchiks. Gilmore has looked after him at every turn, giving him good jobs and promotions along the way over the past few years. And how does he repay it...he jumps into bed with the a few junior TD's and signs the motion to have Gilmore kicked out!
> Fuming with him apparently


 
Not so sure it really matter what the party Apparatchiks think. To be fair to Labour, they are one of the more democratic parties so it's not the sitting TD's that elect a leader. It's the normal membership. The question is if the normal members feel the same way about the way Gilmore was treated. The vote of confidence was ridiculous in the way that they didn't confirm that Gilmore was staying on before lodging it but I think most Labour members thought he had to go.

The other dynamic is that Dublin holds a large proportion of votes which would favour White. Assuming Joan gets it, I am so sure a Dublin 1 & 2 will appeal so I wouldn't be surprised to see Kelly become an attractive alternative for deputy. I can a Burton and Kelly ticket against a Howlin and White ticket.


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## Firefly (28 May 2014)

Joan makes Gift Grub for me so I hope she gets the job..


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## Purple (28 May 2014)

firefly said:


> joan makes gift grub for me so i hope she gets the job..



Good one!


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