# Post-Recession Prices



## onq (5 Sep 2011)

This subject came up in discussion the other day, with the inference that they have been lowered.

Lets see now.

- Oil is up.
- Gas is up.
- Petrol is stable.
- Electricity is up.

- Cigarettes went up recently.
- A cup of coffee in Dublin is naughty.

- Fresh fish is a ridiculous price this week.
- Dunnes 50 cent white sliced is now 65 cent.

So whats gone down?

Oh yeah - houses have gone down again.

So we are still being hammered on necessities like food and utilities and addictions like cigarettes and even talking shop conveniences like a cup of coffee.

Post-recession prices? Yep?
Post recession price reductions? Not many.

Happy to be proven wrong.

On the plus side, I saw my first 30,000+ Dublin Reg over the weekend and its only September.

Looks like people are back buying cars again - a Beemer, as it happens.


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## TarfHead (5 Sep 2011)

Petrol, since 2008, has risen 50%. Not stable !

Coffee is a discretionary luxury product, not valid to include for any assessment of cost of living.


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## liaconn (5 Sep 2011)

My management fee has gone up this year even though, presumably, the cost of cleaners, gardeners etc has gone down. Really annoys me.


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## Ceist Beag (5 Sep 2011)

I'd be interested in the statistics but my own general impression is that food prices have dropped in the last few years. Maybe I'm buying into the spin but it certainly seems cheaper doing the grocery run these days. For example a few years back I noticed a massive difference between Lidl/Aldi and Dunnes, and again between Dunnes and Super Valu - now I feel the difference is much smaller, and it seems to be because the more expensive shops have become cheaper to me.
But certainly fuel costs, insurance costs, these seem to be rocketing up over the past few years.


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## Shawady (5 Sep 2011)

Health and Home insurance have rocketed


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## Purple (5 Sep 2011)

Insurance has increased generally, so has oil & gas. This is not the reason why the cost to the consumer is increasing. The reason for retail price increases is the high wages paid to employees in these sectors as wages are a larger proportion of the unit cost than raw materials.
Commodity food prices have increased internationally. There’s nothing we can do about that and as a farming nation we should be happy about it.

The cost of state services have gone up massively and will do so at ever increasing rates over the next few years. This is because the state cannot react to market conditions by cutting staff or wages and so as the number of people paying for the services (income tax payers) decreases the amount charged has to increase.

Products and services where commodities and taxes do not constitute a large proportion of the unit cost and which are traded in an open market have gone down in price significantly.


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## Bronte (5 Sep 2011)

liaconn said:


> My management fee has gone up this year even though, presumably, the cost of cleaners, gardeners etc has gone down. Really annoys me.


 
The reason for this is probably that more people are defaulting on paying their management fee and so the others have to make up the shortfall.  

I've noticed the cost of staying in a hotel has changed dramatically downward.  And there are signs for 'cheaper' early bird menus all over the place.


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## Mpsox (5 Sep 2011)

On the positive side, the price of newspapers and magazines has fallen since the VAT changes were announced. In general I think retailers and anyone in the hospitality sector are offering better value with things like 3 for 2s and early bird menus. Those that have survived are making more of an effort and many are trying to provide better value for money.

Also I've found the cost of local tradesmen has fallen as they have less business and some have lost the "like it or lump it" approach to doing business


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## onq (5 Sep 2011)

TarfHead said:


> Petrol, since 2008, has risen 50%. Not stable !
> 
> Coffee is a discretionary luxury product, not valid to include for any assessment of cost of living.



Sorry TarfHead,

I try to be current and it seemed to stabilize this week.

I cannot forget the race from €1.26 a litre to €1.52 in the first six months of this year!


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## onq (5 Sep 2011)

One freely traded item - oil - was down at €40 dollars a barrel earlier this decade before America's foreign adventures pushed it through the roof - again!

Retail prices have increased in some cases because retail sales have collapsed and retailers have tried to recoup some losses by maintaining prices artificially high instead of cutting them to suit the pockets of the consumer.

Some clever retailers have offered bargains on some goods while hiking others.

A case in point was seen in Tescos recently where coffee was offered at half price, but other were on a par with other outlets.


As for international prices, we can all choose not to buy until process come down to meet the demand curve

State services are being hugely cut back in the next budget - something has to give but T.D.'s salaries and expenses won't be cut.


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## onq (5 Sep 2011)

Bronte said:


> The reason for this is probably that more people are defaulting on paying their management fee and so the others have to make up the shortfall.
> 
> I've noticed the cost of staying in a hotel has changed dramatically downward.  And there are signs for 'cheaper' early bird menus all over the place.



Nowadays "cheap" seems to be ~ €15 for a meal.

A fish lunch in the Berkely Court cost €10 in 2006

Back in 2003 €5 bought you a meat and two veg with a glass of water lunch - a dinner for some people.


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## onq (5 Sep 2011)

Mpsox said:


> On the positive side, the price of newspapers and magazines has fallen since the VAT changes were announced. In general I think retailers and anyone in the hospitality sector are offering better value with things like 3 for 2s and early bird menus. Those that have survived are making more of an effort and many are trying to provide better value for money.
> 
> Also I've found the cost of local tradesmen has fallen as they have less business and some have lost the "like it or lump it" approach to doing business




I agree with your assessment of local trades, but there are pitfalls to be wary of their too.

Our plumber was called out to a house and charged his "new" €60 call-out rate to an old client of his.

Found out he was repairing workmanship done by another plumber who was away at the time but who charged a €40 rate.

The repair had cost the old client €100 + parts by the time it was complete, so saving €20 on the rate charged by a known and reliable plumber actuall cost €40.

You get what you pay for, apparently.


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## Ceist Beag (5 Sep 2011)

Not sure where you eat lunch onq but must be in the more expensive part of town! Lunch around Camden St/Wexford St/Harcourt St averages at around €7.50 for a decent lunch - you can get a 3 course lunch for €10, so I wouldn't agree with your contention that the average is €15 for lunch!


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## Purple (5 Sep 2011)

onq said:


> One freely traded item - oil - was down at €40 dollars a barrel earlier this decade before America's foreign adventures pushed it through the roof - again!



It’s not that simple ONQ. Political instability and commodity traders cause peaks and troughs in the short to medium term price graph but in the long term it’s still supply and demand that sets the price.
Read this and the links at the bottom of the page for more information.


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## T McGibney (5 Sep 2011)

onq said:


> Back in 2003 €5 bought you a meat and two veg with a glass of water lunch - a dinner for some people.



In 2003??? Where was this


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## onq (5 Sep 2011)

The Julianstown Inn just outside Bettystown on the Dublin Road.

I had a job there in Inse Bay carrying out remedial work on some of the houses.

I used to meet the Building Control officer on site in the afternoon and sometimes had lunch before hand.

I remember it well, because three years later the price had doubled.


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## onq (5 Sep 2011)

Ceist Beag said:


> Not sure where you eat lunch onq but must be in the more expensive part of town! Lunch around Camden St/Wexford St/Harcourt St averages at around €7.50 for a decent lunch - you can get a 3 course lunch for €10, so I wouldn't agree with your contention that the average is €15 for lunch!



I said that was cheap for dinner, not average for lunch, but I'll take your tips thank you.


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## Delboy (5 Sep 2011)

UPC....2 price rises this year alone....the trade off is faster broadband speed each time they raise the price even if your happy with the speed you have
Anyone have info on what UPC/SKY were charging in 2007 when the depression started v's their current prices? Must be up by double digit %?


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## onq (5 Sep 2011)

Purple said:


> It’s not that simple ONQ. Political instability and commodity traders cause peaks and troughs in the short to medium term price graph but in the long term it’s still supply and demand that sets the price.
> Read this and the links at the bottom of the page for more information.



You're absolutely right Purple, I forgot about the perfidious Wall Street traders and the instability that America likes to promote in certain regions.

Any excuse to put up the price of oil, even when demand is down and supply is up! I know there was more to the article in the link you posted than the piece below, but it encapsulates many of the issues. I think we agree on this Purple.

=====================================
*Commodities Trading Drove Up Oil Prices:*

_Why?  Although the EIA pinned part of the blame on volatility in Venezuela and  Nigeria, it warned of an influx of investment money into commodities markets. Investors were stampeding out of the falling real estate and stock markets. Instead, they diverted their funds to oil futures. This sudden surge drove up oil prices, creating a speculative bubble. (Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook) _
_This bubble soon spread to other commodities. Investor funds swamped wheat, gold  and other related futures markets. This speculation drove up food  prices dramatically around the world. The result? Food riots in  less-developed countries by people facing starvation. (Source: BBC  News,Commodity Boom Continues to Roll, January 16, 2008; CNN, Riots,  Instability Spread as Food Prices Skyrocket, February 18, 2008)_


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## onq (5 Sep 2011)

Delboy said:


> UPC....2 price rises this year alone....the trade off is faster broadband speed each time they raise the price even if your happy with the speed you have
> Anyone have info on what UPC/SKY were charging in 2007 when the depression started v's their current prices? Must be up by double digit %?



"You gotta pay more because we give you more!"

Talk about your captive audience.

I'm supposed to have 8 Gb boadband - I rarely see more than 4.4Gb as tested online.

And as for peak use - forget it.


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## Marion (5 Sep 2011)

I notice that a lot of the food prices that are being offered by the Supermarkets at reduced prices are processed foods and sugary drinks that I would not ever buy. 

Having said that, I think the price of meat/chicken has also fallen considerably.

I generally buy a pile at 20% or 25% off and freeze it. I always look at the sell-off section to see what's available and will freeze it. My best buy to date was 10 guinea fowl @ .70c each reduced from €7.50. Each one would feed a family of 3/4.

Restaurant prices need to fall further.

Marion


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## Mpsox (6 Sep 2011)

onq said:


> I agree with your assessment of local trades, but there are pitfalls to be wary of their too.
> 
> Our plumber was called out to a house and charged his "new" €60 call-out rate to an old client of his.
> 
> ...


 
true, my point is that if you can get known and reliable tradesmen, they still seem to be far more flexible on price and for more interested in small jobs.


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## Bronte (6 Sep 2011)

In relation to lunch, you also have the half portion option, and as Irish portions for lunch are massive the half portion is great value and healthy too.


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## JP1234 (6 Sep 2011)

I really can't see that much of a drop in prices...we have pretty much used the same local chain of supermarkets for years and if anything they seem to be more expensive. They are now linked to Supervalu so would have expected a drop in prices. We spent 80euro there on Friday for not very much. We don't eat meat or fish, don't drink alcohol so our food bills are modest,most of our purchases are veggie based.

I rang to get our chimney cleaned, the same man who charged me €25 this time last year is now looking for "€35-40"

trying to book a mid-week hotel in Cork for later this month, room only we were quoted between €80 - €179, plus some wanted extra for parking. Eventually settled on a 4 star for €75, free parking but Wifi is extra...


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## onq (6 Sep 2011)

Marion said:


> I notice that a lot of the food prices that are being offered by the Supermarkets at reduced prices are processed foods and sugary drinks that I would not ever buy.
> 
> Having said that, I think the price of meat/chicken has also fallen considerably.
> 
> ...



10 Guinea Fowl at 70 cent each! We're going to have to vary our diet a little. Where would you buy guinea fowl?


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## hastalavista (7 Sep 2011)

Marion said:


> My best buy to date was 10 guinea fowl @ .70c each reduced from €7.50. Each one would feed a family of 3/4.
> 
> Marion



Were these the monogamous or bigamous type, the latter are tougher I hear


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guineafowl


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## Purple (7 Sep 2011)

onq said:


> You're absolutely right Purple, I forgot about the perfidious Wall Street traders and the instability that America likes to promote in certain regions.
> 
> Any excuse to put up the price of oil, even when demand is down and supply is up! I know there was more to the article in the link you posted than the piece below, but it encapsulates many of the issues. I think we agree on this Purple.



That's right, because only those evil Americans trade commodities. 
... and you are right to ignore OPEC on the whole equation, sure why let the facts get in the way of blind anti-Americanism.

oh, and you're right; there was a lot more to the article than what you posted but why read all that guff from Chomsky if you can't take a leaf out of his book.


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## onq (7 Sep 2011)

Now you're getting it, Pupa.


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## Marion (7 Sep 2011)

@ Onq: I bought them in a Tesco Extra. Superquinn and others also sell them around Christmas.

@ Hasta: They were definitely monogamous. Very tender! 

Marion


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## BOXtheFOX (8 Sep 2011)

Just back from a 3 night stay in a 4 star hotel in Killarney. €198 for two people B & B plus one evening meal.  Great value. Unfortunately we spent about €60 on petrol.

Lots of deals on all sorts of things coming to my inbox most days.

Things like health insurance and utility bills are uncontrollable in the main. The introduction of the "fixed charge" or "daily charge" on some bills really annoy me because even when you are on holidays these charges still rack up.


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## onq (10 Sep 2011)

Marion said:


> @ Onq: I bought them in a Tesco Extra. Superquinn and others also sell them around Christmas.
> 
> @ Hasta: They were definitely monogamous. Very tender!
> 
> Marion



Yum. Thanks Marion.


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## truthseeker (10 Sep 2011)

Marion said:


> Having said that, I think the price of meat/chicken has also fallen considerably.


 
No - meat has gone up. My butcher tells me that the price of chicken has gone way up, the head waiter in a steak house I ate in last week tells me beef has gone up. I notice my weekly butchers shop is up over the past year. Fresh fish is a ridiculous price, it used to be a cheap option when I was a child, now its a luxury!


I think Lidl/Aldi prices have gone up recently also.

Trying to think of something Ive noticed thats come down - salaries?


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## Sue Ellen (10 Sep 2011)

truthseeker said:


> No - meat has gone up. My butcher tells me that the price of chicken has gone way up, the head waiter in a steak house I ate in last week tells me beef has gone up. I notice my weekly butchers shop is up over the past year. Fresh fish is a ridiculous price, it used to be a cheap option when I was a child, now its a luxury!



In light of this I would love to know what restaurants are providing in their 'eat as much as you like' offers, for lunch, for prices less than a tenner


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## onq (11 Sep 2011)

truthseeker said:


> No - meat has gone up. My butcher tells me that the price of chicken has gone way up, the head waiter in a steak house I ate in last week tells me beef has gone up. I notice my weekly butchers shop is up over the past year. Fresh fish is a ridiculous price, it used to be a cheap option when I was a child, now its a luxury!
> 
> 
> I think Lidl/Aldi prices have gone up recently also.
> ...



We should all buy rods and go sea fishing off Bullock Harbour Pier or Dalkey Head.


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## STEINER (12 Sep 2011)

wife bought me a 500ml lucozade sport in our local shop. 3 euro!  she went back later to double check, and yes that is the price they charge!


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## Shawady (12 Sep 2011)

Seen petrol for 155.9 cent this morning in my local garage.
I think thats the most expensive I've seen.


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## RonanC (12 Sep 2011)

STEINER said:


> wife bought me a 500ml lucozade sport in our local shop. 3 euro! she went back later to double check, and yes that is the price they charge!


 
4 x 500ml Aldi's Isotonic "Lucozade Sport" only €1.79

Pays to shop around and change "brands"


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## liaconn (12 Sep 2011)

truthseeker said:


> No - meat has gone up. My butcher tells me that the price of chicken has gone way up, the head waiter in a steak house I ate in last week tells me beef has gone up. I notice my weekly butchers shop is up over the past year. Fresh fish is a ridiculous price, it used to be a cheap option when I was a child, now its a luxury!
> 
> 
> I think Lidl/Aldi prices have gone up recently also.
> ...


 
I was in Aldi yesterday and actually checked my receipt on the way out I was so surprised at the price. I definitely think prices have gone up there and some of their stuff is the same price or dearer than other supermarket.

I agree re fish being a ridiculous price. One small piece of fish can cost the same price as enough meat to do three or four meals. And to think, eating fish used to be considered a pennance!


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## Chris (12 Sep 2011)

Almost all raw materials are up due to all the money printing, and it is only now slowly filtering through to consumer prices. Walmart's CEO warned of this earlier this year, and I would believe that Walmart is in a better position to judge consumer prices than a government agency:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wal-mart-ceo-america-prepare-serious-inflation

Health insurance is probably one of the bigger increases I have noticed, but at the same time I have been able to claim for quite a for more things than before, especially GP visits.
I managed to bring down my car insurance this year through a broker, but the decrease was not as much in previous years. Home content insurance was unchanged.

As for things that have gone down, I have seen more price decreases in electronics and especially in computer software. Recently bought a lense for my digital camera and the price was less than 50% compared to when I first toyed with the idea of buying it 12 months ago.
Got the car serviced a few weeks ago and the bill was €20 less than last year.
I started buying some coal this week and have been able to buy for €0.50 less than last winter. 
The price of a movie rental in Xtravision is down from €5.35 to €4.

This all reminds of a radio interview I heard in a taxi in Germany about 2 years ago. I only got a bit of it, but there was basically a guy who had started preparing for high inflation in the early 90s. He worked out how long he would live from an actuarial point of view and then started buying non-perishable every day items. The only thing I got from his list of things was razor blades and kitchen foil, which he said were then 70% more expensive and in the case of the kitchen foil 15% narrower as well. Unfortunately my taxi journey then ended. 



onq said:


> One freely traded item - oil - was down at €40 dollars a barrel earlier this decade before America's foreign adventures pushed it through the roof - again!





onq said:


> You're absolutely right Purple, I forgot about the perfidious Wall Street traders and the instability that America likes to promote in certain regions.



I disagree with both of you, speculators do not drive oil prices up. Speculators buy and sell futures contracts, and if upon maturity of the futures contract actual demand for oil does not produce the same price as is on the futures contract then the speculator is out of pocket. What speculators actually do is smooth out the peaks and troughs and additionally signal imbalances in future supply and demand levels.
What is driving up the price of oil is all the money printing by all central banks. When there is more money chasing the same amount of goods then prices go up, it is basic economics and is affecting pretty much all raw materials, except for natural gas.

Robert Murphy wrote an excellent analysis of this a few years ago:
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/oil_speculators.pdf


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## Alwyn (12 Sep 2011)

onq said:


> The Julianstown Inn just outside Bettystown on the Dublin Road.
> 
> I had a job there in Inse Bay carrying out remedial work on some of the houses.
> 
> ...


 
I used to drop in there quite a lot myself.  Not surprised to see it currently with a for let sign outside.

Speaking of bits and bobs increasing; I gave up going to the cinema a long time ago due to the cost of going.

The collection of waste disposal i.e levies on the increase.

Is it just me or are detergents and cleaning products getting more expensive? 

I don't see much going down in price apart from certain foods.


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## TarfHead (12 Sep 2011)

STEINER said:


> wife bought me a 500ml lucozade sport in our local shop. 3 euro! she went back later to double check, and yes that is the price they charge!


 
Unless you're one of the '_2pc of elite athletes_', your spend is [broken link removed], regardless of price  !


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## horusd (14 Sep 2011)

M&S sell a lunch deal, sambo, drink, dessert in the UK for £4.50. They sell the same here for €6.50. Exchange rates would convert £4.50 into €5.18. 

So M&S trouser a difference of about €1. 30 or *25%* which surely cannot be accounted for by add'l transport or insuring against a fluctuating FX rate.


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## Chris (14 Sep 2011)

horusd said:


> M&S sell a lunch deal, sambo, drink, dessert in the UK for £4.50. They sell the same here for €6.50. Exchange rates would convert £4.50 into €5.18.
> 
> So M&S trouser a difference of about €1. 30 or *25%* which surely cannot be accounted for by add'l transport or insuring against a fluctuating FX rate.



But it can be accounted for in higher wages, energy costs, rental costs, council charges, etc. In the long term companies can only charge more than their costs and as much as the customers are willing to part with.


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## onq (14 Sep 2011)

The differences between UK High Street Stores and Grafton Street prices were highlighted a couple of years back when the Euro and Pound Sterling almost hit parity.

The higher prices in Ireland were unaccountable at that time - I have no doubt little has changed.

Retailers will charge what they can get - I previously referred to the discrepancy between two stores in relation to Flora Light - that's just one item.

And no, it wasn't on special offer - its been consistently priced like that for over a year.


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## Chris (14 Sep 2011)

onq said:


> The differences between UK High Street Stores and Grafton Street prices were highlighted a couple of years back when the Euro and Pound Sterling almost hit parity.
> 
> The higher prices in Ireland were unaccountable at that time - I have no doubt little has changed.


The exchange rate hit close to parity for an extremely short period of time. Prices of goods in the supply chain do not react immediately, but with a several month lag dependent on the good.



onq said:


> Retailers will charge what they can get - I previously referred to the discrepancy between two stores in relation to Flora Light - that's just one item.
> 
> And no, it wasn't on special offer - its been consistently priced like that for over a year.


I have come across many products with similar price discrepancies. One thing I have noticed in recent years though is that Irish people have finally woken up to the idea of shopping around, which is totally ingrained in people on most of the continent. I was always amazed when Irish friends told me they simply couldn't be bother to find the lowest priced products.


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## horusd (14 Sep 2011)

Chris said:


> But it can be accounted for in higher wages, energy costs, rental costs, council charges, etc. In the long term companies can only charge more than their costs and as much as the customers are willing to part with.


 

I would accept this explanation if the differential were consistent across M&S but it's not AFAIK. This doesn't rule out a rational explanation, and maybe it highlights higher IRL operating costs, but regardless it is substantial and should be looked at. Inflation isn't currently a pressure but it will be, we need to iron out these anaomalies between us and our major trading partner, the UK.


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## Chris (15 Sep 2011)

horusd said:


> I would accept this explanation if the differential were consistent across M&S but it's not AFAIK. This doesn't rule out a rational explanation, and maybe it highlights higher IRL operating costs, but regardless it is substantial and should be looked at. Inflation isn't currently a pressure but it will be, we need to iron out these anaomalies between us and our major trading partner, the UK.



Actually inflation is a big issue.
Inflation is the increase in money supply which causes first an increase in producer/raw material prices, and then later increases in the prices of consumer goods. We have seen massive increases in raw material costs from oil to wheat and corn, all the result of an increased amount of newly printed money chasing the same amount of goods. Walmart's CEO is expecting very high price increases for consumer goods this year, so inflation is coming and there is nothing that will be done about it, as the only way to reverse inflation is by contracting the money supply.


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