# Excellent More or Less program on Covid



## Brendan Burgess (19 Jul 2021)

BBC Radio 4 - More or Less, The Freedom Day Gamble
					

Tim Harford and the team try to work out how long Covid cases will continue to rise.




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Tim Harford really sorts out the numbers and speaks to experts.

There are pros and cons to relaxing all restrictions today in the UK.

Half of all cases of Covid in the UK are from those who have been vaccinated.  This might seem shocking but it's exactly what you would expect as 90% of the adult population has been vaccinated. 

And one I had not heard a clear answer to before.  Being vaccinated reduces your chances of infecting others by about 50%. 

Only 2 in a million children have died from Covid.

45% of people who have had Covid report "long Covid symptoms" e.g. tiredness, breathlessness and being down. 
But 30% of those who never had Covid also report these symptoms. 

Brendan


----------



## ClubMan (19 Jul 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> There are pros and cons to relaxing all restrictions today in the UK.



Brendan - you're making the same mistake that the BBC (and other UK media) makes all the time - conflating England with the UK!
I didn't find the programme as good as you make out and found it unclear and confusing in places (a very common flaw with "More or Less" in my experience).
For a programme that is supposed to deal with hard data they have an infuriating tendency to gloss over figures and not explain things clearly.



> Half of all cases of Covid in the UK are from those who have been vaccinated.



Actually, they said those who have had at least one jab. That's not the same as being (fully) vaccinated.
The presenter also said that 50% of the infections were in the vaccinated population but immediately afterwards said "the majority".
Once again confusing.



> This might seem shocking but it's exactly what you would expect as 90% of the adult population has been vaccinated.



He tried to explain this but his explanation made no sense to me and the claim makes no sense intuitively.
Even assuming that 90% are fully vaccinated and 10% are not then why would 50% of the cases be in the former cohort? Why 50%? Why not 10%? Or 80%?
I do understand that when 100% of the population is vaccinated then 100% of any cases will be in the vaccinated population so that's the trend but the specific figures don't make sense (50%+ of cases in the 90% of the adult population who have had a jab).



> And one I had not heard a clear answer to before. Being vaccinated reduces your chances of infecting others by about 50%.



One contributor said that the transmission reduction of being fully vaccinated is at least 50-60% (not sure why she said "at least" but then gave a range which seems unnecessarily confusing). And that vaccination reduces hospitalisation and death (even for new variants) by over 90%. She did say that models suggest that transmission reduction of 80%+ is needed "to reach a good coverage in the population" but did not explain what exactly that means and it does not seem self explanatory to me.


----------



## Brendan Burgess (19 Jul 2021)

Hi Clubman

Accept the point on England vs. the UK.  

On the 50% of Covid Cases are in the vaccinated population. 
Take the following stylised figures 





A few people have said to me "A colleague at work got Covid despite being fully vaccinated. Did you see that half the cases are in people who have been vaccinated?" 

Without studying it further, it sounds as if vaccines aren't working.

I found the program useful in stressing that this is what you would expect. 

It would be useful to know the infection rate in the vaccinated cohort vs. the unvaccinated cohort, allowing for age.

Brendan


----------



## Brendan Burgess (19 Jul 2021)

Another point I didn't understand and I might have misheard it.  A contributor said 
"People who are infected but not symptomatic are less infectious than those who are symptomatic." 

This did not sound right to me. 

If you have Covid and know about it, you are going to self-isolate.  If I have Covid but don't know it, I will probably infect more people.

Brendan


----------



## odyssey06 (19 Jul 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Another point I didn't understand and I might have misheard it.  A contributor said
> "People who are infected but not symptomatic are less infectious than those who are symptomatic."
> 
> This did not sound right to me.
> ...


They shed less viral load so if you  come across them they are less infectious than someone symptomatic.
However, as you note, they are more likely to be out and about...


----------



## Purple (19 Jul 2021)

@Brendan Burgess , The [broken link removed] report that around 80% of vaccinated people who are hospitalised or died were over 65 years of age. 
In the period from January to April the median age of patients who died was 82 years.
It makes no sense to allow vaccinated people over the age of 75 to dine/drink indoors and not let everyone under 30 do the same thing.


----------



## ClubMan (19 Jul 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> On the 50% of Covid Cases are in the vaccinated population.
> Take the following stylised figures
> 
> View attachment 5712



Brendan, you should be presenting More Or Less.
You'd be a lot better than Tim Hartford.
In my experience he causes more confusion than edification in the way that he tries to explain things.
And not just on this topic or in this show.


----------



## ClubMan (19 Jul 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Another point I didn't understand and I might have misheard it.  A contributor said
> "People who are infected but not symptomatic are less infectious than those who are symptomatic."
> 
> This did not sound right to me.



Yes, again the programme was very unclear.
I suspect that they meant "all things being equal".
I.e. both the symptomatic and asymptomatic infected people circulating to the same extent.
But they don't make things like this clear or explain the qualifications that they're assuming.
I find the programme infuriating most of the time because of this sort of sloppiness.


----------



## Bluefin (19 Jul 2021)

It's really academic to be worring about numbers and the pros and cons of relaxing restrictions.. 

I'm still based in London and people are still behaving as before in general.. Mask wearing on public transport, shops and table service in pubs/restaurants.. 

From what I've observed in the past 2 weeks or so, the British people have been behaving extremely well and are still observing the rules far better than at home. 

As the case's are very much on an upward trajectory here, it's just a matter of weeks before the same starts at home.. I really can't see what the options are and how we can prevent it. We as a society will have to accept the very high numbers coming and hold our nerve.


----------



## ClubMan (19 Jul 2021)

Bluefin said:


> It's really academic to be worring about numbers and the pros and cons of relaxing restrictions..
> 
> I'm still based in London and people are still behaving as before in general.. Mask wearing on public transport, shops and table service in pubs/restaurants..


Because parts of London still mandate mask wearing?


Bluefin said:


> From what I've observed in the past 2 weeks or so, the British people have been behaving extremely well and are still observing the rules far better than at home.
> 
> As the case's are very much on an upward trajectory here, it's just a matter of weeks before the same starts at home.. I really can't see what the options are and how we can prevent it. We as a society will have to accept the very high numbers coming and hold our nerve.


Seems odd that they'd open up the nightclubs but then at the briefing today warn that they are a high risk for super spreading....


----------



## Paul O Mahoney (20 Jul 2021)

ClubMan said:


> Seems odd that they'd open up the nightclubs but then at the briefing today warn that they are a high risk for super spreading....


That decision baffles me , but now it looks like Boris is going to implement vaccine passports for them and events with large crowds. Of course "civil liberties " groups are already objecting. 

I can't see how the overall strategy of reversing all restrictions is going to work out well, 40% of new hospitalisations in the UK are fully vaccinated people, albeit with lower figures,  the message seems to gotten lost, vaccines are not the 100% panacea for this virus,  people still need to socially distance and carry out good sanitisation habits .

It will be interesting to see what happens but unfortunately the bi product will be more suffering.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney (20 Jul 2021)

Bluefin said:


> It's really academic to be worring about numbers and the pros and cons of relaxing restrictions..


Really? We have endured 18 months of an experience that nobody was equipped to deal with. Many of us have changed our lives in order to protect ourselves and the wider community. 

We all want to get back to the lives we had and if decisions are made that would jeopardise that it needs discussion. 

The virus isn't going to magically disappear and there will be more deaths and suffering and we need political leaders to put into place equitable policies and procedures that consolidates what has been achieved and be able to deal with future variants or new viruses that will arrive.


----------



## EmmDee (20 Jul 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> We all want to get back to the lives we had and if decisions are made that would jeopardise that it needs discussion.



I think it's optimistic to assume we completely get back to the lives we had - I suspect there will be some changes which are ongoing; masks or altered work methods / reduced peak travel or whatever


----------



## Paul O Mahoney (20 Jul 2021)

EmmDee said:


> I think it's optimistic to assume we completely get back to the lives we had - I suspect there will be some changes which are ongoing; masks or altered work methods / reduced peak travel or whatever


Absolutely agree, and some changes will be good for society.


----------



## Bluefin (20 Jul 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Really? We have endured 18 months of an experience that nobody was equipped to deal with. Many of us have changed our lives in order to protect ourselves and the wider community.
> 
> We all want to get back to the lives we had and if decisions are made that would jeopardise that it needs discussion.
> 
> The virus isn't going to magically disappear and there will be more deaths and suffering and we need political leaders to put into place equitable policies and procedures that consolidates what has been achieved and be able to deal with future variants or new viruses that will arrive.


Paul I can't disagree with any point you've made above and its the reason why our constant focusing on case numbers is really not helpful to the mental health of the nation. This virus is not going away and multiple variants will arrive on our shores over the coming months and years. The world is so interconnected and most people will not be vaccinated till 2022 /2023 due to the hoarding of vaccines by the first world. We will have to live with this disease. Human beings need to mix. It's part of who we are. There is no other option weather will like it or not.


----------



## Leo (20 Jul 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> "People who are infected but not symptomatic are less infectious than those who are symptomatic."
> 
> This did not sound right to me.
> 
> If you have Covid and know about it, you are going to self-isolate. If I have Covid but don't know it, I will probably infect more people.


How infectious a person is is a measure of the rate at which they are shedding, and correspondingly the chances of someone in their proximity contracting the virus. Behaviour is not a factor in that calculation.

As a result, someone who is unaware they have covid may well be more likely to infect more people than someone who is far more infectuous but knows they have it as they are more likely to alter their behaviours and reduce interactions.


----------



## Brendan Burgess (20 Jul 2021)

Hi Leo

That makes sense now. 

Brendan


----------



## Purple (20 Jul 2021)

Bluefin said:


> The world is so interconnected and most people will not be vaccinated till 2022 /2023 due to the hoarding of vaccines by the first world.


On that point isn't it great that the EU has exported about half the vaccines we've made whereas the USA and UK haven't exported any yet our vaccination rates aren't far behind theirs. Ours is higher than the USA.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney (20 Jul 2021)

Purple said:


> On that point isn't it great that the EU has exported about half the vaccines we've made whereas the USA and UK haven't exported any yet our vaccination rates aren't far behind theirs. Ours is higher than the USA.


It's a telling point


----------



## Paul O Mahoney (20 Jul 2021)

Bluefin said:


> Paul I can't disagree with any point you've made above and its the reason why our constant focusing on case numbers is really not helpful to the mental health of the nation. This virus is not going away and multiple variants will arrive on our shores over the coming months and years. The world is so interconnected and most people will not be vaccinated till 2022 /2023 due to the hoarding of vaccines by the first world. We will have to live with this disease. Human beings need to mix. It's part of who we are. There is no other option weather will like it or not.


But at what cost?

Humanity's need to mix or globalization should not the paramount need.


----------

