# Market crash? : Is whats happening today (27th Feb 06) a crash or a correction?



## manukev (27 Feb 2007)

hi,being a novice when it comes to stocks and shares i was wondering if whats happening to the markets today is a "crash" or is it a "correction" of the markets and is it something that could continue as i have money invested with quinn funds,would it be better to transfer the money in to one of the safer options that they provide


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## ClubMan (27 Feb 2007)

*Re: market crash?*

Timing the market is a mug's game. If you're invested for the long term then forget about such volatility and wait until you need the money. If you're not invested for the long term then perhaps you should not be in equities?


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## alpina (27 Feb 2007)

*Re: market crash?*

Hi Manukev, pretty much a novice myself here but from what
 'I HAVE Learnt' Clubman makes alot of sense in here. 

If investing in China you would need to be in for the long term anyhow, consider today a hiccup, basically levelling out after being under alot of speculative pressure.

You said it yourself, 'the markets are merely correcting themselves' so if you can, think you need to be looking at long term if you stay in...


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## manukev (27 Feb 2007)

*Re: market crash?*



ClubMan said:


> Timing the market is a mug's game. If you're invested for the long term then forget about such volatility and wait until you need the money. If you're not invested for the long term then perhaps you should not be in equities?


with my knowledge i wouldnt even try to time any markets,i hope to be in for the long term i am in approx.3 years now and am very happy with the returns,its just that i never saw drops in markets like that.i know it happened in 2001 but didnt experience that myself


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## long_boy (27 Feb 2007)

*Re: market crash?*

manukev, I'm a bit of a novice also as I only got into the Freeway funds last week so I guess I'll take a hit on this! However, some people would argue that now is the time to increase your investment and thus average out your strike price. That's 1 reason to regularly save rather than in lump sums.


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## demoivre (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: market crash?*

Historically " crashes " or " corrections " have proven to be good buying points  if you look at the performance of the DJ Industrial Average or S&P 500, for example , over the longer term. The 1987 crash is only a blip on the charts and had you bought the market just before 9/11 the subsequent falls have mostly been recoverd. Of course there are no guarantees that history will repeat itself but  I am quite happy to hold stocks for the very long term and only ever buy my picks at the end of down days.


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## extopia (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: market crash?*

Well, one of my stocks was up 12% yesterday! (Pity about the rest though).


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## bacchus (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: market crash?*

A market correction is long due... as market has been going up since early 2003. A "small" correction took place in 06Q2.  Time to buy again for those who has been patient enough.


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## SlurrySlump (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: market crash?*

The Dow yesterday had it's biggest fall since 9/11. The ftse is already down another 100 points this morning. Having a look at a half dozen or so specific shares that I follow I can see there are bargains to be had and I will be buying. Those people who shorted the market yesterday and today will have to cover their positions at some stage and the market should give a "bounce". Whether this is a dead cat bounce remains to be seen. But there is money to be made for day traders.


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## PMU (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: Market crash?*



manukev said:


> hi,being a novice when it comes to stocks and shares i was wondering if whats happening to the markets today is a "crash" or is it a "correction" of the markets and is it something that could continue as i have money invested with quinn funds,would it be better to transfer the money in to one of the safer options that they provide



 Manukev: It’s time in the markets that counts, not market timing.  

If you change your funds now all you will do is crystallise any loss you might have. Look, the FTSE finished yesterday at 6286, which is very slightly more than it closed on the 1st. Feb.  So all you can say is it went nowhere in a month, which is an insignificant time period for a long term investor.  Or, take, for example, the ISEQ that declined by 30% in 2002; if you had got out then you would have lost 30’% of your capital. If you had stayed invested you would have enjoyed average gains of 16% in the next four years.  The point I’m making is that as a novice you should look at how markets behave before making any rash judgement you might later regret.   You could also consider reading some of the books on investment recommended on AAM.  If you buy in each month (cost average) you now have the chance to buy at the same or lower price than last month.


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## alastair (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: Market crash?*

I've a SSIA maturing in April, mix of equity funds with the EBS.
Given the current dip, is there any benefit in leaving the money in the respective funds for a few more months, while continuing to contribute?
I'll need to move €7 grand into a pension (Quinn Life Freeway) within 3 months to take advantage of the Govt deal (I'm in the low tax bracket), but cashing in at a low seems like a pretty poor idea (the futility of trying to time markets notwithstanding).

I'd previously planned on immediately putting a €7.5 grand lump into the mortgage and the remainder into the Freeway fund.

Any advice?


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## gonk (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: Market crash?*



alastair said:


> but cashing in at a low seems like a pretty poor idea (the futility of trying to time markets notwithstanding).


 
Well, the part you're putting into the pension will be _buying_ in at a low too, assuming you go into an equity-based product. To the extent that you're buying and selling in the same market, you shouldn't be any worse off, provided you can keep the interval between cashing in the SSIA and making the pension investment as short as possible.

You might want also to bear in mind that EBS are imposing an additional 0.7% exit charge on some of their funds because of all the SSIA accounts being cashed in at present. This may be reduced or removed altogether over time. See this thread for more:

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=48140&highlight=ebs+ssia

Of course, there are lots of imponderables like will the new pension investment fare better or worse than the SSIA investment, will markets generally go up, down or sideways.


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## clon (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: Market crash?*

The Daily telegraph today had some graphics showing the performance of the main markets, and the Chinese market was still up on the start of the year after the 9% correction. I don't believe that the Chinese stock market is a proxy for the Chinese economy, it has been very hard for foreign investors to invest in Chinese stocks, and their has been very little regulation of Chinese companies that are mostly ex State bodies.

So I would see all this as a 'correction', that might have a way to go yet, even if some of the markets were to rally today, mainly because markets have had a very long bull run, and could do with a correction.

The average Irish pension fund returned about 9% per year over the last 10 years (most Irsh pension funds invest the bulk of their funds in non Irish stocks), which includes the dotcom bubble and 9/11 aftermath, so if you take the long term view then I still believe that money can be made.


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## alastair (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: Market crash?*



gonk said:


> Well, the part you're putting into the pension will be _buying_ in at a low too, assuming you go into an equity-based product. To the extent that you're buying and selling in the same market, you shouldn't be any worse off, provided you can keep the interval between cashing in the SSIA and making the pension investment as short as possible.



Thanks for that - didn't think of it in those terms. I guess the only real issue then is the hit I take on the lump going to the mortgage - just have to live with that. I won't stick with the EBS simply to avoid their exit charge - smacks of bully-boy tactics to me.


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## Markjbloggs (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: Market crash?*

Be careful about catching falling knives here - a lot of technical damage has been done to all markets and it may take a few weeks to work off before it can resume it's uptrend (if this is just a correction!!)


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## SlurrySlump (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: Market crash?*



alastair said:


> I won't stick with the EBS simply to avoid their exit charge - smacks of bully-boy tactics to me.


 
So much for calling themselves a "mutual". What does that mean I wonder? Just a marketing ploy I guess!


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## Markjbloggs (28 Feb 2007)

A nice graphic from the WSJ illustrating the events of yesterday - 

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-marketdrop0207.html


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## silvamuppet (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: Market crash?*



gonk said:


> You might want also to bear in mind that EBS are imposing an additional 0.7% exit charge on some of their funds because of all the SSIA accounts being cashed in at present.


 
gonk. Are you sure about your facts here. I checked with a friend working in the EBS there yesterday and he said this wasn't happening and that the indo article the other day was the first he heard of it. I have to wonder if it is the usual less than perfect reporting by the indo. (in fact he said that there were no instructions to charge people coming out of equity funds nor have they done it to date)


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## ClubMan (28 Feb 2007)

As mentioned elsewhere any additional charge that *may *be getting levied could be at the fund manager's end and not at _EBS's _end. As such they might be technically correct in saying that no additional charges apply even if they do behind the scenes. At the very least check that the unit price quoted matches the price for the relevant day. And since _EBS _funds are quoted on a bid/offer spread basis but _EBS _are supposed to subsume the cost of the 5% spread you should really be getting the offer rather than the bid price when selling.


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## gonk (28 Feb 2007)

*Re: Market crash?*



silvamuppet said:


> gonk. Are you sure about your facts here. I checked with a friend working in the EBS there yesterday and he said this wasn't happening and that the indo article the other day was the first he heard of it. I have to wonder if it is the usual less than perfect reporting by the indo. (in fact he said that there were no instructions to charge people coming out of equity funds nor have they done it to date)


 
Here's the article referred to in the earlier thread. 
[broken link removed]

It's from the _Sunday Business Post_, not the Indo. According to the article "A spokesman said the change in valuation methodology would reduce the value of a typical fund by 0.7 per cent." The spokesman mentioned represented Irish Life Investment Managers, who manage these funds for EBS. I would trust the _Business Post's_ reporting.


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## CCOVICH (28 Feb 2007)

Folks-it's important to distinguish between the recent wider market movements (topic of this thread) and the proposed anti-dilution levy, which is discussed .


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