# Financial predictions, anyone?



## thomsk (22 Jan 2008)

Just for the craic, does anyone want to stick their neck out - and try and make some economic predictions: in ireland, europe, worldwide or otherwise.
Eg 1) Del Trotter - " this time next year, we'll be millionaires "
Eg 2) ECB will fall by 25 pts by year end.
etc, etc..
As a rule of thumb, it has to be something that is not yet known. I think it would be interesting to see who guesses spot-on, who is near, and who is well off the mark !
I'm gonna go with the price of gold hitting $920-930 on Jan 30th/31st.


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## RMCF (22 Jan 2008)

Got a couple of racing certs:

1) Petrol will hit 135c per litre (in Donegal its currently sitting at 125/127c)

2) We will get another rise in our ESB bills

3) Cost to empty your bins will rise by at least 10% (currently €11)

4) We will hear a lot of talk about water tax for households


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## Sunny (22 Jan 2008)

ECB will cut rates by at least 50bp by the end of the year

Unemployment in Ireland to shoot up with the strong possibility of at least one big multinational saying adios

AIB to be taken over

Oil will fall to about $70 on the back of lower demand but airlines fuel surcharges will remain in place.

We will still be talking about falling house prices at the end of 2008

The National Development Plan will be put on "hold" at the next budget to cover increased pay for politicans 

US rates will fall to about 1.5% if not lower and even this won't stop it entering a full blown recession. 

The UK will be next followed by the Eurozone


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## Purple (22 Jan 2008)

It's all going to go pear shaped.

The world will be in a state of chassis


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## csirl (22 Jan 2008)

The UK housing market will collapse and sterling will be hit hard. UK will be forced to consider entering the Euro, but will procrastinate for c.5 years before saying yes to the Euro. In the meantime, Sterling will have collapsed to c. 1 pound to 1 euro and the British will regret not having entered the Euro at the mid 2007 exchange rate of c.68p to 1 euro.


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## Pique318 (22 Jan 2008)

Sunny said:


> Oil will fall to about $70 on the back of lower demand but airlines fuel surcharges will remain in place.


 
Excuse me ? 'Lower Demand' ? Don't think so mate !


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## Sunny (22 Jan 2008)

Pique318 said:


> Excuse me ? 'Lower Demand' ? Don't think so mate !


 
 US Recession=lower demand

Why do you think oil has been falling over the past few days?


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## ClubMan (22 Jan 2008)

Purple said:


> It's all going to go pear shaped.
> 
> The world will be in a state of chassis


The likes of _Fintan O'Toole, George Lee, Jim Power _etc. will have a field day telling us how bad things are and how it's all down to greed, selling our soul, blah, blah, blah....


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## Markjbloggs (22 Jan 2008)

Remember....

The forecaster is a gentle man
With neither sword nor pistol
He walks along most daintily
because his balls are crystal.


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## Purple (22 Jan 2008)

ClubMan said:


> The likes of _Fintan O'Toole, George Lee, Jim Power _etc. will have a field day telling us how bad things are and how it's all down to greed, selling our soul, blah, blah, blah....




It's all down to capitalism. That’s the one size fits all problem with society for those jokers. Drugs? Child abuse? Crime? Psychiatric problems? Global warming? Constipation? It’s all down to the evils of capitalism. If only the masses were as clever as the pseudo-socialist moral elite we would all be living in a utopia. 
Hay, maybe we will emerge into a socialist utopia at the end of this ... it might be worth it if it shuts Mr. O'Toole up.


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## Ceist Beag (22 Jan 2008)

It won't matter anyway, the world will end on June 27th at 3:12 pm .... or thereabouts!


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## ClubMan (22 Jan 2008)

Damn - no UEFA Euro 2008 final so...


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## Guest127 (22 Jan 2008)

Ceist Beag said:


> It won't matter anyway, the world will end on June 27th at 3:12 pm .... or thereabouts!


is that gmt?

my guesses
ecb rate 3.25
irish stock exchange around 7200
petrol $90 a barrel or €1.20 at pumps
govt to trouser pay increase
no significant decrease in price of cars in july 
hot summer
no Irish golds in Bejing

man u to win premier 

Christmas to fall on 25th December

at least one of those is correct


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## Purple (22 Jan 2008)

cuchulainn said:


> Christmas to fall on 25th December
> 
> at least one of those is correct


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## thomsk (22 Jan 2008)

By Dec '08 :-

* House Prices : Ireland- stabilised, UK- still falling ( Uk sub-prime problems in news ), Bulgaria - Down 10%, Baltics -down 15%, Poland -stable, USA - down 20%

* ECB Rate : 4.5%, Fed : 2.75%

* Oil $85 barrel

* Major Irish bank take-over

* China's bubble burst

* Gold : $1000 ounce

* Japan maket stable

* Surely a hot summer...(in India !)


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## stir crazy (22 Jan 2008)

Sunny said:


> US Recession=lower demand
> 
> Why do you think oil has been falling over the past few days?



since inexpert predictions are invited, I would think lower  us demand =  lower oil prices =  better for the economies in japan, china and india and for infrastructural development in the latter 2


I think like our own government always sneakily  does, the republicans in the USA will try to hold it together and artifically prop things up perhaps via interest rate cuts etc when going into an election year and it will be the new administration which will have to make the cut backs post election.


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## redstar (23 Jan 2008)

* Democrats win US Pres election
* Bertie resigns
* Summer/autumn/winter of discontent as public sector unions strike for more pay to 'compensate' for no benchmarking increases.
* Long hot summer in Ireland, lasting from early May to mid-May.
* Irish national soccer team manager appointed before 2009
* ESB, gas, mortgage rates all up. Although mortgage rates to fall before summer first.
* Brian Cowen (Taoiseach) tells us to stop talking down the economy.
* New tribunal set up to find Berties tax clearance cert - expected to last 5 years, and cost 1 billion euro.
* Ireland rejects Lisbon Treaty - EU invades Ireland, establishes coffee shops in every town and village.
* Petrol eases back to 115c/l


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## MrMan (23 Jan 2008)

> Christmas to fall on 25th December



Unless the church move it like Paddy's day.


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## Guest127 (25 Jan 2008)

try the bookies for odds on that one. you will either get very rich or be locked up.


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## thomsk (30 Jan 2008)

Gold price €925 today. Yippee, I got a prediction right!
Reckon it should shoot up somewhat by tomorrow, though.


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## PMU (30 Jan 2008)

No US recession.
  Significant hike in the S&P due to export-led boom on foot of low dollar.
  General increase in world stock markets by year end.
  Increase in Asian stock markets (but perhaps not Japan).
  ISEQ goes nowhere.
  Average IE house prices to fall 20% min.
  Value of euro to fall significantly in latter part of 2008.
  Value of GBP to increase in latter part of 2008. 
  My portfolio will increase by about 7% above the rate of inflation.


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## Purple (30 Jan 2008)

PMU said:


> My portfolio will increase by about 7% above the rate of inflation.


Feel free to PM me with stock tips


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## boaber (30 Jan 2008)

Sunny said:


> US rates will fall to about 1.5% if not lower



Just another 1.5% to go to your prediction after today's cuts!  All bets are off


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## markowitzman (1 Feb 2008)

consolidation in Irish banks
dow +15%plus 
dollar recovery
bye bye bertie
increase in irish income tax rates
unemployment 7%plus
increase in rent allowances and supports
unwinding of commodities bubble and a return of the value investor!


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## Jack The Lad (10 Feb 2008)

2008, March 14th:

A radioactive crocodile will escape from Dublin Zoo and work it's way through sewers to the vaults of the Central Bank. Irelands stockpile of Euro notes and coins will become radioactive and deemed unusable, and geiger counters will be issued to all banks and major retail outlets as a precaution. Callers to Joe Duffy will demand geiger counters for every household in Ireland, which ultimately leads to a blow-out between the Greens and FF, and a general election by mid June. The ISEQ drops so fast during this period that a number of brokers and financial pundits get the bends, and die. The ECB decides to expel Ireland from the Eurozone as an example, and Ireland leaves the EU in protest. Ireland is declared a rogue state, and economic sanctions are put in place. Oil is discovered in the Wicklow hills and within days US aircraft carriers are sighted off Hook Head. House prices collapse, bunker prices dramaticaly increase.

I'm telling you guys... it's going to happen.


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## Purple (10 Feb 2008)

Jack The Lad said:


> 2008, March 14th:
> 
> A radioactive crocodile will escape from Dublin Zoo and work it's way through sewers to the vaults of the Central Bank. Irelands stockpile of Euro notes and coins will become radioactive and deemed unusable, and geiger counters will be issued to all banks and major retail outlets as a precaution. Callers to Joe Duffy will demand geiger counters for every household in Ireland, which ultimately leads to a blow-out between the Greens and FF, and a general election by mid June. The ISEQ drops so fast during this period that a number of brokers and financial pundits get the bends, and die. The ECB decides to expel Ireland from the Eurozone as an example, and Ireland leaves the EU in protest. Ireland is declared a rogue state, and economic sanctions are put in place. Oil is discovered in the Wicklow hills and within days US aircraft carriers are sighted off Hook Head. House prices collapse, bunker prices dramaticaly increase.
> 
> I'm telling you guys... it's going to happen.


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