# Analysis that will terrify depositors in Pillar Bank.



## kdoc (14 Apr 2013)

Michael Noonan said deposits in Irish banks are safe, this analyst doesn't think so.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gwCdgmTttU


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## wbbs (14 Apr 2013)

Well now that was scary watching for a Sunday morning!  At least I have nothing in AIB, can we assume they are all as bad?


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## burmo (14 Apr 2013)

Fun times.


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## Mrmr (14 Apr 2013)

I can't make out whether this is related; from the Indo this morning
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/us-market-enforcer-issues-warning-to-aib-29194728.html


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## Lightning (14 Apr 2013)

kdoc said:


> Michael Noonan said deposits in Irish banks are safe, this analyst doesn't think so.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gwCdgmTttU



Some of that video is laughable, difficult to find real substance but with an occasional serious point. For example, the video suggests that a blogger called Reggie had a hand to play in the CBI chief stepping down! Ha! Come on !!

That said, according to the Sunday papers, the SEC is investigating AIB disclosures at the moment. However, there is nothing to say that anything serious will come from it. I think everyone knows that the collateral used by Irish banks to get emergency financing off the ECB and CBI has been questionable at best. At least, the Irish banks are rapidly removing their reliance from central bank emergency liquidity, down from 180 BN at peak to 53 BN at present. 

The spectra of what happens when the Irish banks need more capital is an open question, the IMF have suggested that 16 BN in contingent liabilities needs to be added to Irish bank balance sheets for further potential mortgage losses and potential 2019/2020 NAMA crystalised losses. If this is an accurate assessment, one does have to question where the capital injection will come from. Let's hope new Irish bank stress tests come sooner rather than later to address this open question.


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## Palerider (14 Apr 2013)

Thanks to KDOC for posting that, very interesting and hard to challenge..

I got to thinking if sub €100k depositors in Aib for example who make up the largest amount of savers took their funds out in the form of a bank draft and came back two years from now say a year after a depositor haircut would the draft be honoured, e.g - tomorrow €20k out....two years from now present it for lodgment €20k in....? threat of haircut avoided ..


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## Gondola (14 Apr 2013)

Is this about the Reggie Middleton blog in which he mistakenly thinks Allied Irish Banks is the same as Anglo Irish Bank (he calls Anglo Irish AIB)?
http://www.boombustblog.com/blog/item/9049-are-you-about-to-get-cyprusd-in-ireland?-when-a-single-words-worth-billions-of-euros[/URL]

Trying to understand what he says, but it is difficult to follow after realising that he thinks AIB is Anglo Irish.


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## Palerider (14 Apr 2013)

Tis AIB he is talking about alright, I didn't notice that but the interview has to be taken I think in the whole rather than as any distinct piece, I think you have to allow for somebody that is not media trained rather media prepared, I've been on camera a couple of times and without training it can be daunting.

We have enough of those that are ' trained ' by Carr communications or the Communications clinic or a n others on our turf already to know this.


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## Jim2007 (14 Apr 2013)

Palerider said:


> Thanks to KDOC for posting that, very interesting and hard to challenge..



The guy does not even understand the difference between GAAP and IFRS, then seems to confuse the entities he is talking about,  so no it is not very hard to challenge.


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## Palerider (14 Apr 2013)

Time will reveal all, this guy has called it right before, often times strangers see what we locals refuse to see, he is a stranger alright and I for one need to consider if my hard earned deposits will be accessed before I can do anything about it, that is now both real and tangible....so to formally declare my interest yes I am more than concerned and note what he says, I wear a seatbelt, insure my house and insure my car for the same reasons, trying to understand my risk and react accordingly, tell me Jim 2007 are you confidant he is talking through his A. ?


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## Jim2007 (15 Apr 2013)

Palerider said:


> Jim 2007 are you confidant he is talking through his A. ?



If you have a couple of thousand economists yapping their heads off, of course someone of them is going to be right some of the time, but here is the thing you have know way of knowing which one is going to be right each time!

Do your own research and concentrate on the facts, not the talking heads and the bloggers and remember you can not avoid financial risk, but you can reduce it through the proper diversification.


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Apr 2013)

At first I was worried, these guys were talking about AIB 
But when they developed the theme to argue that the ECB, the Bank of International Settlements, most banks in the US, France etc. were bust, I kinda relaxed.


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