# Is Rubella or the Flu more dangerous than the Coronavirus?



## Hooverfish (26 Feb 2020)

Just another view. I'm actually still more worried about the case of rubella reported in Apple's Hollyhill campus today. See de paper. Transmission rate for rubella is 10-30% as opposed to 2-3% for Covid-19.


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## Susie2017 (26 Feb 2020)

Why would you be more worried about rubella. The majority are vaccinated against it so the outbreak will be confined. Its generally a mild illness. Its only a worry if you are pregnant and unvaccinated. On a separate note i see the HSE coronavirus information posters for GP surgeries and hospital EDs are still only referencing travel from China as important if you develop a fever or respiratory illness. Hopefully they will update them.


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## Sunny (26 Feb 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> IT doesnt have to be an either or... And which one to be more concerned about may depend on whether you are in at risk group for either disease.



You shouldn't be at risk from Rubella. There is extremely affective vaccination available.


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## Hooverfish (27 Feb 2020)

Sunny said:


> You shouldn't be at risk from Rubella. There is extremely affective vaccination available.



Yes there is an effective vaccination. But there are always people who cannot be vaccinated eg babies under one year, people who are immunocompromised. This is why to be effective you must have "herd immunity" where most people who can be are vaccinated. Unfortunately the anti-vacc movement threatens this. See http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/401117/IRL.pdf?ua=1 for Irish figures and https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/mmr-vaccine for general information. A typical route for spread would be travel to countries which have the disease by unvaccinated people. Also, we don't require people to prove they have MMR before they come here, quite reasonably, because a lot of older people or those from countries where vaccination is not widespread may have natural immunity from experiencing the disease. But collections of large numbers of younger people in workplaces in Ireland are unlikely to have this protection, do travel, and may never have been vaccinated.


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## Sunny (27 Feb 2020)

We do have herd immunity when it comes to rubella. One isolated case is not comparable to the cornavirus or a major public health issue. I agree with you about idiots who decide not to immune their kids by choice and people entering this country from abroad. I know there is talk of not allowed children access childcare without proof of vaccinations. Sad but it probably has come to that. 

You offer people a vaccine against the cornavirus today like the flu jab and I bet all the people sticking up food supplies and calling for borders to be closed still wouldn't get it.


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## Leo (27 Feb 2020)

michaelm said:


> Perhaps.  But the virus is predominately spread person to person, not from surfaces.



The Coronavirus can survive on surfaces up to 9 days, the most effective means of prevention is to frequently wash your hands.


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## WaterWater (27 Feb 2020)

I see that it recommended that you wash your hands in warm water. What about cold water?
It takes so long for the warm water to reach my taps (about 4 litres, I normally collect this and re use in my cistern) that Irish Water would be billing me for over usage.


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## odyssey06 (27 Feb 2020)

WaterWater said:


> I see that it recommended that you wash your hands in warm water. What about cold water?
> It takes so long for the warm water to reach my taps (about 4 litres, I normally collect this and re use in my cistern) that Irish Water would be billing me for over usage.



I think warm water makes it easier to lather the soap, and encourages you to lather for longer.
If you properly wash your hands, soap and cold water is effective - but experience suggests warm water makes it easier to do this properly.


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## Thirsty (27 Feb 2020)

Temp of water doesn't make any difference; it's just nicer to have warm water.

Most of us don't wash our hands properly anyway; amongst other things, you should rub your hands for as long it takes to sing Happy Birthday.


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## Ceist Beag (28 Feb 2020)

Thirsty said:


> amongst other things, you should rub your hands for *as long it takes to sing Happy Birthday*


Twice apparently! (20 seconds in other words)


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## Thirsty (29 Feb 2020)

So here's the thing; you can only control what you can control.

Practise good hygiene, stay home if you're not well. Don't visit grandad in the nursing home.

If I had an underlying medical condition, I think I'd be making a plan to work from home and / or avoid social gatherings. 

It's not clear to me what the advice is on seeking medical help? That's the bit that concerns me, our hospitals struggle as it is.


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Feb 2020)

Between 200k and 600k of worlds population die from seasonal influenza.   The orange man stood up in front of a nation the other night and spouting out that he got a statistic told to him that day that amazed him that approx 65k people die each year in US from influenza and we only have 15 cases of the virus in the US and they will all be back up and running soon.   What a really stupid statement.   Just google  'Harvard scientist : coronavirus pandemic likely will infect 40% to 70% of the worlds population this year'.   If that proves correct or even half correct I'll leave you all to do the maths at a 3% mortality rate on a world population of 8 billion.   Current mortality rate wordwide is approx 3.5% see Worldometer Coronavirus.


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## Early Riser (29 Feb 2020)

Daddy Ireland said:


> If that proves correct or even half correct I'll leave you all to do the maths at a 3% mortality rate on a world population of 8 billion. Current mortality rate wordwide is approx 3.5% see Worldometer Coronavirus.



The 3% mortality is enormous but seems heavily skewed by the initially very high mortality rate in Wuhan. This was before the authorities recognised what they were dealing with or got to grips with a response. It has since come way down. What it will turn out to be noone knows but the most optimistic estimates are about 1% and ranging up to 2%. This is still huge compared to Flu so if there is a widespread epidemic/pandemic the impact will be enormous.

On a seperate note, I see the Aer Lingus cabin crew who flew the first Irish person to be diagnosed into Dublin have gone into 2 weeks isolation. It wouldn't take long for this pattern to have a near paralysing effect on the airline/travel industry.








						Coronavirus: Aer Lingus cabin crew in self-isolation after passenger’s positive test
					

Sign of peace is to be suspended at Masses and holy water fonts emptied




					www.irishtimes.com


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## michaelm (5 Mar 2020)

According to the WHO Director-General: “Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”


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## seamus m (5 Mar 2020)

If it's possible to find out within 4 hours of testing if people have virus why are we not testing all planes from affected areas a stitch in time certainly seems to be case here


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## Leo (5 Mar 2020)

Daddy Ireland said:


> Anyone who quotes it quotes it in comparison to deaths from coronavirus.  Like only x amount have died from coronavirus versus the annual deaths from influenza.  Like I have stated, the % deaths to cases on both is what counts.   Off the cuff remarks like saying more people die from influenza are not reflecting the true attrition rate.



No, saying more people die from flu is reflecting the facts as they currently stand. You seem to be mixing up total deaths and mortality rate. 

This year's flu season wasn't as severe as recent ones, so we may be closer to the 300,000 deaths worldwide this year than the 650,000 typically seen from more virulent strains. Flu season generally lasts about 13 weeks, it's also been 13 weeks since COVID-19 emerged, we've seen north of 3,000 deaths to date. I think it's fair to say anyone suggesting 300,000 is a lot greater than 3,000 is not the one peddling fake news. 



Daddy Ireland said:


> Off the cuff remarks like saying more people die from influenza are not reflecting the true attrition rate.



People who focus on the mortality rate need to understand that is only part of the picture. If you're worried about COVID-19's rate, don't read up on Ebola!!


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## orka (5 Mar 2020)

michaelm said:


> According to the WHO Director-General: “Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”


That's apples and orange:  % of reported vs. % infected.  A lot of covid19-infected people are not reported as they have mild symptoms and/or because some countries may be under-reporting the infected but it's less easy to under-report deaths.

The UK's chief medical officer (who I find very impressive in his manner and comments) says that his teams modelling show a mortality rate less than 1% for covid19.


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## odyssey06 (5 Mar 2020)

Alkers86 said:


> Now confirmed one of the four cases in the West worked at least one shift in an emergency department. Hopefully that was before they had symtoms and hopefully that means they didn't transmit - I'm not sure this has been scientifically proven or not?



I thought I read a report that asymptomatic spread occurs more with influenza.
Asymptomatic spread seems to be an exceptional (<5%) scenario for coronavirus.

Jump to "_But Tedros listed a number of differences as well._"








						WHO: Coronavirus is different from influenza, and that means it can be contained
					

WHO officials are pushing the message that while seasonal flu cannot be stopped, countries still have the chance to limit cases of the new #coronavirus, #Covid19.




					www.statnews.com


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## Leo (5 Mar 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> I thought I read a report that asymptomatic spread occurs more with influenza.



~50% of those contracting the flu remain asymptomatic, they have a lower transmission rate than those who are symptomatic, but remain contagious none the less. Airborne transmission is said to account for over 50% of flu transmission, while the Chinese data suggests this isn't a major concern for COVID-19.


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## Purple (7 Mar 2020)

Good info on the virus here.
It’s about twice as infectious as the seasonal flu and probably twice as dangerous although we won’t know for sure until more people get it and there’s more data.


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