# Prime Time - Boom to Bust - Preview



## ccbkd (1 May 2008)

Tonight RTE1 at 9.30. More Irresponsible journalism from Montrose a la Property Crash programme last or Well informed economic documenty, I suspect the usual Agent Provacateurs will be whell out McWilliams , Alan Aherne etc.. Are we the most introspective self obsessed nation in Europe, due to my recent time with work I have spent Europe I would have to say we are really becoming a greedy lot..


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## mf1 (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

"Are we the most introspective self obsessed nation in Europe, due to my recent time with work I have spent Europe I would have to say we are really becoming a greedy lot.."

Yes to the first bit but it is not a question of "becoming" that - we are that and it is not a nice trait. 

mf


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## lightswitch (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Totally agree ccbkd, particularly when you consider our history the blatent greed is quite sickening.  As for the media talking the economy into the toilet, totally irresponsible!


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## Purple (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Is George "Mr. Negative" Lee not doing the show tonight? 
He usually gets the Prime Time gigs with David "If I say it for long enough I'll be right" McWilliams doing the other time slots.
Don't get me wrong; both men know their stuff and are worth hearing but they don't offer an alternative beyond vague woolly generalisations.


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## John Rambo (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

McWilliams' sneering tone can be irritating alright...the use of terms like 'decklanders' is clearly meant to cause offence. What exactly is wrong with having a patio area in your back garden where you can eat or entertain? Especially now that smoking is banned in pubs, boozing and cruising is a complete no-no, and pints are a fiver a go. These programmes are irresponsible journalism...if we panic, we really are goosed.


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## aidan119 (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

People need to make up their own mind but I am more willing to listen to David and George because they don't work for financial institutions, estate agencies or property companies. Therefore they can give their true opinion.

What is the point of RTE spinning out Dan McLaughlin when he has to push the BOI position all the time ?. We can't expect any great insight when they pay his salary. He can't really say what he believes. 

We need objective economists.


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## CN624 (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Yeah McWilliams can be annoying with all the condescending labels. He used to be very good on the radio (NewsTalk) but he went all populist with the books trying to appeal to the mass market. By insulting it. But it worked for him. 

I remember when he was publicising his book on the Late Late and he was throwing out labels left right and centre. Pat said to him "You have Decklanders, Breakfast Roll Man etc., so what category/label are you David?"  

"I'm a Tube, Pat" he didn't reply but should have. Instead he said he was "An observer".


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## MrMan (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



> We need objective economists



You mean like ones that don't have books to flog, good luck in finding one.


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## John Rambo (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

So get a panel with McWiliams, Dr Dan, Jim Power etc and have a debate. My issue is with doom and gloom merchants who seem to get aroused at the thought of a recession. We should be talking up our situation.


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## mf1 (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

"We should be talking up our situation."

And thats not irresponsible?

mf


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## John Rambo (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



mf1 said:


> &quot;We should be talking up our situation.&quot;
> 
> And thats not irresponsible?
> 
> mf


 
No, it's not and to suggest otherwise is pseudo-intellectual nonsense. The economy is going to grow this year and next year but the less well informed would be entitled to believe we are in a recession from the doom and gloom being published and broadcast. Doom and gloom makes people lower their spending which causes the recession. So suggesting to people they go out and buy that house/car/PC/pair of jeans is not irresponsible...it's responsible and patriotic.


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## theoneill (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

David McWilliams does not own a property, have a garden, drive a car, eat food or live in a country. He is a spirit entity who inhabits a corporeal body just long enough to dispense sound economic advice. Therefore he is infinitely more believable than most of the pseudo-economists that get wheeled out for these discussions. You may not like what he has to say but you’d be very foolish not to take at least some of it on board. The media has every right to talk the economy in whatever direction it wishes, if the economy is sound it will be water off a ducks back. The powers that be have to learn how to manage the economy instead of just banking on taking in more money than they haemorrhage out.

And yes we really are a greedy bunch.


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## aidan119 (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



John Rambo said:


> So get a panel with McWiliams, Dr Dan, Jim Power etc and have a debate. My issue is with doom and gloom merchants who seem to get aroused at the thought of a recession. We should be talking up our situation.


 




Talking up our situation has terrified young people in their early 20's into 100% mortages over 40 yrs for houses priced on unsustainable multiples of incomes.


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## Purple (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



theoneill said:


> The powers that be have to learn how to manage the economy instead of just banking on taking in more money than they haemorrhage out.


Of course a large part of the problem is that the powers that be don’t really have that much power. We can’t control world markets, interest rates etc, so we should be trying to keep ourselves as lean as possible so that we can react to change as it happens.


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## John Rambo (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



theoneill said:


> The media has every right to talk the economy in whatever direction it wishes, if the economy is sound it will be water off a ducks back.
> 
> And yes we really are a greedy bunch.


 
Then it is legitimate to accuse 'The Media' of treason and gross irresponsibility. I've seen it all before...the pseudo-intellectuals rage while people do well for themselves and they sit in their ivory towers musing on the state of the nation. And then they secretly delight as those who choose to create wealth struggle in tougher times. We CAN stave off economic difficulty by being positive. Take that holiday, buy that house, buy that car. But saying 'Ah Jaysus, we're all goosed...better pull the horns in' will bring about what we most fear.


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## becky (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



theoneill said:


> David McWilliams does not own a property, have a garden, drive a car, eat food or live in a country. You may not like what he has to say but you’d be very foolish not to take at least some of it on board. The media has every right to talk the economy in whatever direction it wishes, if the economy is sound it will be water off a ducks back.


 

David goes to his holiday home in Dubrovnik every Summer (ver jealous of this fact myself) and I believe he owns his own house.

I agree with all you said - all you have to do is look around to see the economy is slowing down.  I've seen signs on shops saying not hiring summer staff for example.

I like to hear everyone and make up my own mind and think the media should be giving us all the facts and as many viewspoints as they can including the ones we don't like to hear (but I do like David).


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## theoneill (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



John Rambo said:


> Then it is legitimate to accuse 'The Media' of treason and gross irresponsibility. I've seen it all before...the pseudo-intellectuals rage while people do well for themselves and they sit in their ivory towers musing on the state of the nation. And then they secretly delight as those who choose to create wealth struggle in tougher times. We CAN stave off economic difficulty by being positive. Take that holiday, buy that house, buy that car. But saying 'Ah Jaysus, we're all goosed...better pull the horns in' will bring about what we most fear.




It's a free country you can accuse the media of whatever you like. But holidaying you way out of a global downturn is hardly the answer.
Personally I prefer to deal with the most likely scenario. Interest rates will not come down, oil will increase and the cost of foodstuffs will rise.
Nothing you, I or anyone else says will prevent that. Blaming the media for our economic woes may make some of feel better but will not change the facts.


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## ccbkd (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Wow the programme hasn't even been aired yet, and look at the lively debate it has sparked, lets hope Miriam and the gang don't disappoint!


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## Humdinger (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

I like to hear everyone and make up my own mind and think the media should be giving us all the facts and as many viewspoints as they can including the ones we don't like to hear (but I do like David).[/quote]

Sadly, Dan, Austin and all the other vested interests get a totally disproportionate amount of airtime and print space. We need  balance and I am sure many of those who bought in '06/'07 had heard alot more from George and David McW. 

Like them or not, we need George and David. 

Remember the VI furore over the Property Crash programme last year. I am sure there are PR companies working overtime all across Dublin tonight to give the VI counter spin tomorrow. They can't talk "softlanding" anymore ... its now about "affordability" and other "buy now" slogans. Lets blame the government for not doing enough on stamp duty etc etc etc . The obliging media will wheel them all out ...if it was'nt so serious it would be funny !!


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## becky (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



Humdinger said:


> Sadly, Dan, Austin and all the other vested interests get a totally disproportionate amount of airtime and print space. quote]
> 
> 
> I agree and find it amusing that people are saying the media is talking down the economy cos if they are they only started.
> ...


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## Humdinger (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

What are the odds on VI spin tomorrow including any or a combination of the following

 - the programme was irresponsible .... or some other lets rubbish the programme statement
 - we are talking down the economy  ... these people are traitors to the VI cause
 - we have seen alot of buyer interest in recent weeks as affordability improves. Viewing figures are up.
 - We are concerned about a lack of supply in the second half of the year as sellers are holding back. This will drive up prices
 - The markets are factoring in at least one rate reduction before the end of the year !!!!
 - Employment growth is still strong


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## CN624 (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



John Rambo said:


> ... treason and gross irresponsibility...patriotic




Don't know about you but I reckon Rambo is hankering for a good old fashioned invasion!


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## ccbkd (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Better put away my new copy of Gran Theft Auto IV for 9.30, christ its addictive


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## shnaek (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Is it really possible to 'talk up' or 'talk down' an economy? If this was possible then surely the Japanese would have tried it at some point in the last 15 years. 

Is it not more likely that euphoria catches on as the economy grows, and pessimism catches on as the economy slows? Thus the reporting is just that - reporting, and to report 'good times' when the economy is in trouble would be tantamount to reporting lies.

We need the truth to be reported to us, so we don't get screwed with more rounds of benchmarking or pay rises for politicians or the likes. We need the truth so as we can work to manage the truth.

Anyone who wants delusion can take the blue pill and stay plugged in to the matrix.


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## mickman (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

its obvious here that most people dont even know what a recession is. a recession is two quarters of negative gdp growth, we are not even near having one quarter of negative gdp. obviously the economy is slowing down, thats like. the world economy is made up of boom and bust cycles, nothing you or i can do about it. unemplyment is still very low in this country. the people that will be most affected are the people who all went doing trades instead of college cos they could get 1000 a week and extra for working saturday. they have had their day in the sun the same way that IT contractors had it in 2000/2001  , now they need to retrain and do something else. most of these people didnt have any real interest in trades , they just joined up for the easy money. in all fairness when you see a block layer earning 1500 a week then something is wrong


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## mickman (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

also mcwilliams is only having a doom and gloom opinion because thats what the media want to tell the public, bad news sells. good news doesnt. so this is the only reason why he is pessimistic


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## John Rambo (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



mickman said:


> obviously the economy is slowing down


 
See even someone like you who clearly knows the score fell into the trap...the economy is not 'slowing down'. The rate of growth is slowing, which given the credit crisis and oil situation is quite impressive. To other posters of course you can talk yourself into a recession. Doom and gloom makes people wary about spending money which brings about lower retail figures etc.


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## askalot (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



John Rambo said:


> We CAN stave off economic difficulty by being positive. Take that holiday, buy that house, buy that car.



On credit? 

That really worked for the US! And now their economy is like a junkie hooked on cheap credit. Its dependence on cheap money is such that even a modest interest rate of 4% is too much for the economy to cope with.


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## thepieman (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Money makes the world go round, lets spend our way out of trouble....to Dundrum I say


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## Howitzer (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

I for one look forward to RTE, DMcW, Dan McL et all making up my mind for me. All this "making up your own mind" malarky is way too stressful and hard.



mickman said:


> also mcwilliams is only having a doom and gloom opinion because thats what the media want to tell the public, bad news sells. good news doesnt. so this is the only reason why he is pessimistic


Somebody should have told Mark Coleman before he wrote that "Best is yet to come" book.



John Rambo said:


> See even someone like you who clearly knows the score fell into the trap...the economy is not 'slowing down'. The rate of growth is slowing, which given the credit crisis and oil situation is quite impressive.


Countries have "potential" growth rates that they should be achieving based upon the demographics of their population (a population with lots of people of working age compared to OAPs should "grow" it's economy quite substantially YOY) and the rate of growth of the population (more people = more potential for jobs and consumer spending). Ireland should have growth of ~3 - 4%, USA ~2% Germany maybe 1%. Anything less than that is a recession as you're growing less than you should.


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## mickman (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

thats what i meant - growth is slowing


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## John Rambo (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



askalot said:


> On credit?
> 
> That really worked for the US! And now their economy is like a junkie hooked on cheap credit. Its dependence on cheap money is such that even a modest interest rate of 4% is too much for the economy to cope with.


 
I never mentioned credit...this is a subconscious thing. I'm positive about the future but even I'm being more cautious which in itself will harm the economy.


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## becky (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



John Rambo said:


> ...the economy is not 'slowing down'. The rate of growth is slowing,


 
Have to say this means the same thing to me anyway.


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## sandymount (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Where's the growth, we are already in a recession. The talk about 2 quarters of negative is claptrap.   Construction is in recession, manufacturing is in recession and the services sector is in recession according to the latest PMI's in these sectors.   Where is the growth, possibly agriculture.   This years tax take is down on the same months last year. Get your heads out of the sand and face facts. Boom Boom and Bust....


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## mickman (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

becky - if ireland was in a recession you would know it, believe me.  emtpy bars and restuarants. no new cars on the road etc


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## becky (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



Howitzer said:


> I for one look forward to RTE, DMcW, Dan McL et all making up my mind for me. All this "making up your own mind" malarky is way too stressful and hard.


 

I'm looking forward to it tonight (thank god its not clashing with the apprentice ) also and have to agree with you on this making up you own mind business it is very hard.


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## askalot (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



John Rambo said:


> I never mentioned credit...this is a subconscious thing. I'm positive about the future but even I'm being more cautious which in itself will harm the economy.



Credit lending in Ireland has started to slump and it is no coincidence that consumer spending and the economy has slowed at the same time. I think it is fair to draw the conclusion that much of our past economic growth has been funded by borrowing and not increased productivity.... but maybe that is only a subconscious thing.


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## becky (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



mickman said:


> becky - if ireland was in a recession you would know it, believe me. emtpy bars and restuarants. no new cars on the road etc


 

If I said we were in recession apologies I didn't mean it.  

I meant it was 'slowing down/not growing as fast'....or can I say showing recession tendencies?


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## jiz (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



John Rambo said:


> See even someone like you who clearly knows the score fell into the trap...the economy is not 'slowing down'. The rate of growth is slowing, which given the credit crisis and oil situation is quite impressive. To other posters of course you can talk yourself into a recession. Doom and gloom makes people wary about spending money which brings about lower retail figures etc.


 
Right, so the value of my pension fund is down 20% in the last 12 monthw, as is the value of my house - and I should just stick my head in the sand and indulge in a little retail therapy to make myself feel better? Such rubbish - of course I am going to tighten the belt and put off buying a new bicycle.


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## mickman (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

your pension fund will recover


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## gearoidmm (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Won't be much use if we lose our jobs.


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## sandymount (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

The April Live Register figures are out tomorrow. Unfortunately this is the only growth you are going to see in Ireland this year.


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## sandymount (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



mickman said:


> your pension fund will recover



In real or nominal terms?


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## ixus (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

@JohnRambo - Your logic is so ill it is astounding, I do hope that it doesn't influence anyone.

There are so many agencies at fault for the oversupply of credit in this country. 
1.Financial Institutions - Their lending practices, 100% mortgages etc.
2.Government - Poor policies & planning.
3.Construction Industry - Landbanking, restriction of supply to meet demand etc.
4.Media - Talking up the economy and influencing people to get on the ladder.
5.Consumer - A belief that spending credit made them wealthy.

We now have a contraction of credit globally which is affecting this country. 
1.Financial Institutions 
- Now unwilling to lend at the high ratios they previously did. 
-This requires people to save more (i.e. consume less) to purchase a home.
- The institutions are now hoarding money. 
2.Government 
- cutting back on public spending (transport & education), yet you say the household should continue to spend??
3.FDI moving jobs out of the economy
4.Construction Industry cutting large amounts of jobs, so much so we're about to go back to 1998 levels tomorrow. 

How is the consumer supposed to purchase houses at previous rates when banks are unwilling to lend at that rate?
Is the consumer supposed to spend even more than they already have to cover the levels of unemployment that have occurred recently?

There are exogenous factors such as oil, exchange rate, competing countries for FDI, food inflation, inflation in general. These are things the Irish household has no control over. The result is our labour force is less competitive and things cost more for the household. This results in less wages available, less consumption, less taxes and less savings. 

I'm sorry, but you can't blame the media or the doom & gloom people for that!

For houses to sell, they have to drop in value to meet banks valuations. For jobs to stay, we have to be more competitive (this means paycuts/work harder for the same wage and improved skills). 

Spend Spend Spend and talking things up is just not the answer.


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## joe sod (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Well if the government comes down hard during partnership talks then it will be a sign that they are starting to take things seriously, i fully agree with the professor from limerick we have been overpaying ourselves with some exceptions for the last 6 years, we are even losing jobs to britain, the public service unions have got to be told to back off, they now represent the best paid workers in the state not the lowest paid, this is the one constructive immediate thing we can do, the reason we had the 80s recession is because we refused to confront reality for so long, we dont have to make the same mistake again


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## ixus (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Well put Joe Sod.


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## becky (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



ixus said:


> @JohnRambo - Your logic is so ill it is astounding, I do hope that it doesn't influence anyone.
> 
> 
> I really doubt it.


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## John Rambo (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

All I am saying is that it's hard not to believe that negativity in the media about the economy can be a self fulfilling prophecy because it affects peoples behaviour. Of course there are issues at the moment but it is not a time to panic. I for one am investing in bank shares right now and purchasing a property...call the men in the white coats and lock me up!


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## robd (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



mickman said:


> its obvious here that most people dont even know what a recession is. a recession is two quarters of negative gdp growth, we are not even near having one quarter of negative gdp. obviously the economy is slowing down, thats like. the world economy is made up of boom and bust cycles, nothing you or i can do about it. unemplyment is still very low in this country.



Actually a recession is defined as two quarters of negative *real *gdb growth.  Inflation has been higher than growth in Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 (figures will be out for March in the next few days to prove Q1 2008).

We are in a recession.

Unemployment is growing at an alarming rate.

On other peoples points, particularly the Rambo fellows:

The media can't talk an economy into a recession.  The talking is merely commentary on what is already happening.  Economies get talked up when they're going up and down when they're going down.  Unpatriotic !!!!  Yeh right, give me a break.  The only thing going for the Irish economy the last 5 years was lashing up crap houses and apartments in often very crap areas.

There are benefits going forward to this downturn.  We need to shake off the seriously mis-directed resources that went into property over the last 5 years.  Investment in R&D and the services sector are up.  These generate real income for the country as they are exportable.  I'm already seeing uplift in the software sector.

It's not the end of the world.  It's a market cycle and an inevitability of the silliness that proceeded it.  Oh, and Ireland is not different.


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## Thomas22 (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Why is reporting of facts "talking down" the economy?

We have to watch, read and listen to so much property porn that a few programmes like this don't even start to balance out the arguments.

p.s. Has anyone actually re watched the original Property Crash programme, they predictions aren't too far away from reality at the moment


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## Dee101 (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Spot on ixus with your points above.

Put simply,we were living on a "borrowed economy" i.e the banks were throwing money at us all like there was no tomorrow so we all thought we were rich. Now its time to wake up and smell the coffee - things are slowing down, like it or not.


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