# Ban on discussion of individual Shares



## KOW (18 Dec 2019)

I fully understand that  permission for the discussion of individual shares could easily open the flood gates.

My pension naturally enough is  invested in a broad range of shares.

Separate to that I hold a small number of shares. While I try to read up on and look at professional  opinion on the shares I find it difficult to read through the smoke.

Could I put forward the idea that maybe administrators could pick "share of the month" where one share could be open for discussion each month.

The idea been fools like me might get some type of idea of how shares are valued etc. Why the chosen share might/might not be considered good value by the AAM community etc.

Merry Christmas to all.


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## Brendan Burgess (18 Dec 2019)

Hi KOW

Thanks for raising the issue.

There really is no evidence at all that individuals can consistently identify winning shares or losing shares for that matter. 

A few people have done it e.g. Warren Buffett.  But even Buffett will tell you to buy an index. 

So opening up such a discussion would get us nowhere and would generate a lot of heat.  It would be impossible to moderate. 

We have made a few exceptions over the years. 

1)  AIB had a crazy valuation and the company and everyone else said this. So it was important to point that out. 
2)  When the government floated it, I did an assessment of its value as it was a major public issue. I turned out to be wrong and then later right. 
3) We have made an exception for Colm Fagan as he has written very entertaining and very informative articles about his shares. 

There are other sites which do discuss shares e.g. The Motley Fool. 

And Rory Gillen also does what you want, but you do have to subcribe. 








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Brendan


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## KOW (18 Dec 2019)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi KOW
> 
> Thanks for raising the issue.
> 
> ...



Cheers Brendan easy on AIB. Crying all the way back to 2007.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (18 Dec 2019)

There are also potential issues with market abuse.

The Phoenix Magazine used to run anonymous pieces on Irish listed shares which would end with a buy, hold or sell recommendation.

This fell foul of market regulations as the author could have been "talking up his own book". Phoenix had to desist and I think received a small fine too.

This makes life difficult for Brendan as a publisher. Pseudonymous posting means that people could be holding shares and trying to pump the price of their own stock.

I think the ban makes sense.


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## TrundleAlong (19 Dec 2019)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> Pseudonymous posting means that people could be holding shares and trying to pump the price of their own stock.


I am not sure that any individual could pump the price of a share when millions of any share can change hands daily.

I remember back in the 80's there was a booklet called Oil Database that got a lot of us hot under the collar. I fancied myself as being a young millionaire.


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## Brendan Burgess (19 Dec 2019)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> There are also potential issues with market abuse.



Hi Coyote

Thanks for reminding me about this. I had completely forgotten about it.

We banned the discussion of shares from the start in 1999. It took the Markets Abuse Directive a few years to catch up with us. But I remember feeling at the time that it justified our position. 

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (19 Dec 2019)

TrundleAlong said:


> I remember back in the 80's there was a booklet called Oil Database that got a lot of us hot under the collar.



The Motley Fool had a sub-forum to deal with Ireland. And in among the discussion of tax, mortgages and pensions, there were these long threads headed : "Bula, Bula buy Bula".  The messages were "I bought at 2 cents and now they are 3 cents - Whoppeee"  I didn't want serious discussions polluted by that sort of nonsense. 

Brendan


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## NoRegretsCoyote (19 Dec 2019)

TrundleAlong said:


> I am not sure that any individual could pump the price of a share when millions of any share can change hands daily.



I agree!

However the law is the law, and some people may be silly enough to buy stocks they see recommended anonymously online.


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## Zenith63 (19 Dec 2019)

TrundleAlong said:


> I am not sure that any individual could pump the price of a share when millions of any share can change hands daily.


I used to spend quite a bit of time on some of the UK AIM pennyshare forums.  While I don't think people were trying to pump+dump shares, there were a couple of threads I was involved in where individuals seemed to have close relationships with execs in the businesses, which was creating quite a bit of hype in the forum and many of us putting quite significant sums of money into companies with very low trading volumes.

While I quite enjoyed the discussions around individual shares, and would love to see some around ISEQ companies, I think it's 100% the right thing to do to keep it off the main forums of AAM, it would quickly consume the place and make it unattractive to people seeking advice.  A Private forum where people could ask for admittance might be an option?


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## ashambles (19 Dec 2019)

TrundleAlong said:


> I am not sure that any individual could pump the price of a share when millions of any share can change hands daily.
> 
> I remember back in the 80's there was a booklet called Oil Database that got a lot of us hot under the collar. I fancied myself as being a young millionaire.


Some of the Irish listed companies would have very, very low trading volumes, one mining company had just 4 euro worth of trading today (Thurs 19 Dec 2019), share price is 0.0016 if you want to figure out what it is. 

When it comes to Irish share discussion too much time ends up with highly speculative mining type stocks. 

Ignoring Ireland in general there's an information deficit on stocks for the average investor which is helping the move into funds and ETFs.


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## Seagull (27 Dec 2019)

TrundleAlong said:


> I am not sure that any individual could pump the price of a share when millions of any share can change hands daily.


It depends on who's doing it. There was a finance column in the Daily Mirror some years back, and the writers were using it to do a pump and dump. They would buy shares in a company, and then promote it.


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## Fella (27 Dec 2019)

KOW said:


> While I try to read up on and look at professional  opinion on the shares I find it difficult to read through the smoke.
> 
> Could I put forward the idea that maybe administrators could pick "share of the month" where one share could be open for discussion each month.
> 
> ...



If professionals could really pick winning shares why would they bother writing articles in newspapers , they are getting paid to fill the newspaper column with rubbish that people read and think they are intelligent , do you really think some financial analyst in say the Irish times or whatever has any clue what way a share price is going to move ? If you gave me odds against on a monkey with a dart throwing at the stock pages versus any professional I would load up .


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## KOW (28 Dec 2019)

Fella said:


> If professionals could really pick winning shares why would they bother writing articles in newspapers , they are getting paid to fill the newspaper column with rubbish that people read and think they are intelligent , do you really think some financial analyst in say the Irish times or whatever has any clue what way a share price is going to move ? If you gave me odds against on a monkey with a dart throwing at the stock pages versus any professional I would load up .




Totally agree Fella.

 But But

 I have bought and sold  a number of properties in a certain location in Dublin.

 I have build three houses in a town in Wexford and bought three small sites. 

Can I look into the crystal ball and tell you how property will perform in the said areas in the future. No.

 Or can I offer a better opinion on valuation in the said areas. Probably.

Can I offer a better opinion and give rational explanations on where I think value is available in these areas?
 I think I can.


Now if property was to crash all my local knowledge is not much good to anybody.

But if you or anybody was interested in the two specific areas I claim to have knowledge in would you not at least have a listening?

I think you would.


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## Brendan Burgess (28 Dec 2019)

KOW said:


> I have bought and sold a number of properties in a certain location in Dublin.
> 
> I have build three houses in a town in Wexford and bought three small sites.




But But

What has that got to do with picking winning shares? 

Brendan


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## KOW (28 Dec 2019)

Brendan Burgess said:


> But But
> 
> What has that got to do with picking winning shares?
> 
> Brendan



Boss It is obvious to me that maybe you are unable to join up the dots due to over indulgence over the Christmas period

Brendan what I am trying to say. 

Say somebody worked in  the aviation industry for many years. They might have worked at different levels and for different companies in this industry.

If a discussion arose on the purchase of shares in this sector while I might not agree with what this person had to say and again at any time shares in this sector could crash I would listen to what is been said over comment by others who have no experience or knowledge in this sector.

We all agree in the risk/reward debate and while nobody can predict the future I will always listen to experience and knowledge and decide whether to pull the trigger or not.

Hope that explains what I am trying to say,

OHH maybe its me who has hit the sauce too hard,  Diageo? Ops discussion barred,


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## Brendan Burgess (28 Dec 2019)

KOW said:


> Say somebody worked in the aviation industry for many years.



Sorry, I still do not see the relevance of your history of investing in property with buying shares. 

Brendan


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## EmmDee (2 Jan 2020)

KOW said:


> Boss It is obvious to me that maybe you are unable to join up the dots due to over indulgence over the Christmas period
> 
> Brendan what I am trying to say.
> 
> ...



(a) Property is different. It isn't an asset that can be sold in a day. So if you want to talk about property you are talking about generalities (locations, types of property) it is unlikely you are talking up the value of a location in order to sell your property into an uptick in value. The market is too large for one or two transactions to change the price

(b) If someone works in the aviation industry, their knowledge of the industry would be useful. But if they were to talk about the specific company they worked for and to discuss information not publically available, they would be breaking the law if they were doing so to influence trading in the stock

Small cap securities tend to have very low and infrequent trading. A single transaction of fairly low volume can change the price on a "penny stock". Therefore the aim of the pump 'n' dump schemes was not to cause significant trading - it just needed a small number of trades (or even requests for quotes). If the Mods had to decide on a share by share basis, which ones were low volume and therefore prone to manipulation, it would be a nightmare. Therefore a blanket ban on specific securities makes a lot of sense.

Also - there are sites you can go for specific securities discussion - Motley Fool or others


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## KOW (2 Jan 2020)

Thanks for feedback. A happy new year to one and all


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