# Retreat in Oil Price Artificial? Gold off West Cost?



## Wilkes (17 Jan 2007)

Politically much is being made of the retreat in oil prices but is this just temporary as production was boosted from US pressure on Saudi / OPEC? Is the medium term trend still fundamentally upward?

On the home front was there something recently from Noel dempsey making fantastical claims of Leprechaun's gold off the West Coast, enough Oil and Gas to satisfy us for 90 years? Where did that come from, what's the science behind it.

Sorry but I'm a real sceptic on anything out of politicans over the next five months. Anybody got a lead on this claim? Any views on retreating oil prices?


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## ivuernis (17 Jan 2007)

Wilkes said:


> Politically much is being made of the retreat in oil prices but is this just temporary as production was boosted from US pressure on Saudi / OPEC?


 
Production hasn't increased from Saudi Arabia or OPEC in the last 12 months and world production in the same period has plateaued. 

Several factors (though not exclusive) have probably contributed to the downturn in oil prices over the last 6 months:

the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico was mild this year, certainly when compared to 2005
we're experiencing an exceptionally mild winter across much of the northern hemisphere
while real demand for oil certainly helped push up the price of a barrel of oil there is also a lot of speculative dealing going on as well



Wilkes said:


> Is the medium term trend still fundamentally upward?


 
Short-term we could still see further drops, but medium to long-term is probably only heading one way... up. 




Wilkes said:


> On the home front was there something recently from Noel dempsey making fantastical claims of Leprechaun's gold off the West Coast, enough Oil and Gas to satisfy us for 90 years? Where did that come from, what's the science behind it.
> 
> Sorry but I'm a real sceptic on anything out of politicans over the next five months. Anybody got a lead on this claim? Any views on retreating oil prices?


 
Where did you hear this? He's either very badly informed or he's lying through this teeth. If there was anything bigger than Corrib of the west coast it would have been found already. 

Even when Corrib comes online we will still be IMPORTING around half or more our gas and Corrib is expected to have a useful lifespan of 15-20 years. So anything along the 90-year mark is purely fantasy on the part of Minister Dempsey.


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## walk2dewater (17 Jan 2007)

Oil prices will go down, then up, then down, then down a lot, then up, then up some more, etc... at the moment, depending on your view there’s either a temporary new years sale on oil stocks and energy stocks generally…. Or they’re about to crash to peanuts as oil goes back sub $45/bbl… I know what my money is riding on…

btw the money is in *agricultural* commodities this year, producers of and suppliers to...


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## soma (17 Jan 2007)

walk2dewater said:


> btw the money is in *agricultural* commodities this year, producers of and suppliers to...



Agreed. It's also very interesting IMO that we're currently eating into the world's reserves of grains at an alarming rate (no pun intended).


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## soma (17 Jan 2007)

walk2dewater said:


> at the moment, depending on your view there’s either a temporary new years sale on oil stocks and energy stocks generally….



Personally I see this as an opportunity to buy on the dips, because I'm long term bullish on energy full stop.


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## walk2dewater (17 Jan 2007)

soma said:


> Agreed. It's also very interesting IMO that we're currently eating into the world's reserves of grains at an alarming rate (no pun intended).


 
Yeah, and don’t take my word for it…the stocks I’m talking about,mostly Canadian based, have been going nuts more or less since end of summer… one of my penny stocks (cant name names) has gone ballistic in last week or so… sells fertilizer into Chinese market… another one I have has been buying up massive farmland banks in Argentina… am about to get out of uranium and heaviy into agric… anyway, this aint the site to discuss this stuff, this place is strictly for sentiment watching, loving the ‘property investment’ thread lately!!


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## soma (17 Jan 2007)

walk2dewater said:


> Yeah, and don’t take my word for it…the stocks I’m talking about,mostly Canadian based



WTTW.. dude.. you're like a walking advertisement for everything Canadian these days 



walk2dewater said:


> another one I have has been buying up massive farmland banks in Argentina…



Just like Warren Buffet then.. _(OT - I've just returned from 6 weeks in argentina and man can I see the attraction)_



walk2dewater said:


> anyway, this aint the site to discuss this stuff,



Forgive my ignorance but *is* there a decent online/offline place to discuss this sort of thing? One that isn't dominated by Shills and/or spammed to death?

 But back on topic. One thing I am finding endlessly fascinating, is how some people are commenting that Oil is retreating back to "cheap" $50/barrel. In 1999 when oil was $10 you'd have been chucked in the loony bin for suggesting $50/barrel within a few years. _(Nevermind the $75 we saw in 2006..)_


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## ranger (17 Jan 2007)

_On the home front was there something recently from Noel dempsey making fantastical claims of Leprechaun's gold off the West Coast, enough Oil and Gas to satisfy us for 90 years? _

_Christ, don't tell George Bush. Next thing you know we'll be invaded for the Leprechaun's Gold._


_Ranger_


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## walk2dewater (17 Jan 2007)

soma said:


> Forgive my ignorance but *is* there a decent online/offline place to discuss this sort of thing? One that isn't dominated by Shills and/or spammed to death?


try www.greenenergyinvestors.com



soma said:


> But back on topic. One thing I am finding endlessly fascinating, is how some people are commenting that Oil is retreating back to "cheap" $50/barrel. In 1999 when oil was $10 you'd have been chucked in the loony bin for suggesting $50/barrel within a few years. _(Nevermind the $75 we saw in 2006..)_


 
true.  And keep in mind that US$ is depreciating rapidly.  Fed stopped publishing M3 (funny that), but estimates put it at north of 10% p.a. In gold terms, oil and oil companies p/e's are ridiculously cheap.


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## walk2dewater (17 Jan 2007)

PS:  Canadian, and Australian assets, including debt obligations denominated in those currencies (incl the national currencies themselves) are the ones to own.  Why?  Go have look at the natural resources those countries control....


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## edo (17 Jan 2007)

walk2dewater said:


> Oil prices will go down, then up, then down, then down a lot, then up, then up some more, etc... at the moment, depending on your view there’s either a temporary new years sale on oil stocks and energy stocks generally…. Or they’re about to crash to peanuts as oil goes back sub $45/bbl… I know what my money is riding on…
> 
> btw the money is in *agricultural* commodities this year, producers of and suppliers to...




Did you buy your Frozen OJ futures in time ? 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,1991967,00.html?gusrc=ticker-103704

somebody is going to make a killing on this


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## Foxtrot (22 Jan 2007)

But to play this one right you would've needed some insider info. And maybe an unflappable comic duo.


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## room305 (22 Jan 2007)

Maybe not so artificial:

World oil demand falls in developed world for first time in twenty years

BRIC countries will pick up the slack eventually of course but in the mean time I'm expecting further falls.


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