# What is happening with Bitcoin bets on Betfair?



## Brendan Burgess (13 Apr 2020)

Betfair had a page where you could bet on the 2020 year end price of Bitcoin.

But the page seems to be gone now?

I had placed some bets on it.

But it looks as if the money I bet is back in my account as if the bets had been cancelled.

But my account is just showing the money lodged to it - it's not showing any bets.

Very odd.

Brendan


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## tecate (13 Apr 2020)

At least they gave you your money back.


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Apr 2020)

Hi tecate

But I placed my bet in January when the the odds were about 15/1.

They since dropped to 8/1 so I was ahead.  

They have probably risen again, so I have not lost that much.   But it's annoying.

I have received no explanation and I can't find anything on Betfair about it.

Brendan


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## Leper (14 Apr 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi tecate
> 
> But I placed my bet in January when the the odds were about 15/1.
> 
> ...



1. You placed a bet and the race was never completed and you were never "ahead."
2. Obviously, the outcome of the race was not known at this stage.
3. You got your money back.
4. If it were a horse you'd 'ave lost.

Old Booking Office Jibe:- Quit while you're behind.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (14 Apr 2020)

Bookmakers generally reserve the right to unilaterally cancel a market. Remember they are 'making' a book, it doesn't exist without them.

If (for example) they have evidence of systematic market manipulation the only fair thing to do is cancel the market.

They will never give you a meaningful answer on this I am sure.


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Apr 2020)

Leper said:


> 4. If it were a horse you'd 'ave lost.



Clearly, I have not explained it properly. I was betting on the price as of 31 December 2020. The end of this year.

The horse race analogy would be if you had backed a horse 3 months ago at 16/1 for a race which is going to be run next week. The odds today are 8/1. 

So you are ahead. I could have laid off my bet. 

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Apr 2020)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> Remember they are 'making' a book, it doesn't exist without them.



No, it was on the exchange. So I was betting against other users. 

They must be delighted. 

Brendan


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## tecate (14 Apr 2020)

Had your view changed Brendan since this prediction ->


Brendan Burgess said:


> 31 Dec 2019 : $1k
> 31 Dec 2020 : 0
> 31 Dec 2021 : 0


If not, it seems Betfair has done you a solid.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (14 Apr 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> No, it was on the exchange. So I was betting against other users.



It is moot. They are making a market.

So you are CEO of Betfair. You are given evidence of rigging in a particular market. The only fair thing you can do is cancel the market.


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## Fella (14 Apr 2020)

Have you contacted them ? If they closed the market in error they will reinstate it.


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## Fella (14 Apr 2020)

Someone has asked and this is Betfair's response 

Unfortunately, we are no longer allowed to offer financial markets upon advice provided to us internally which led to a decision being made to voiding off both the ‘Bitcoin 2020 Close Price’ and ‘Ethereum 2020 Close Price’ markets.
There isn't much more information I could provide you with regarding these markets at the moment however as all bets have been voided off in the process, all liabilities have been cleared off the markets.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (14 Apr 2020)

Virtual asset markets are notoriously opaque and it is quite likely that there are attempts to manipulate end-year values to profit on these kind of real-world markets. Buyer and seller can be the same entity on a bitcoin market and you would never know.

Pure speculation on my part. If anyone has a better explanation do share.


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## Fella (14 Apr 2020)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> Virtual asset markets are notoriously opaque and it is quite likely that there are attempts to manipulate end-year values to profit on these kind of real-world markets. Buyer and seller can be the same entity on a bitcoin market and you would never know.
> 
> Pure speculation on my part. If anyone has a better explanation do share.



Very much doubt it , it looks like Betfair have removed all financial markets I'd say its more a regulatory thing.


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## Duke of Marmalade (14 Apr 2020)

Fella said:


> Someone has asked and this is Betfair's response
> 
> Unfortunately, we are no longer allowed to offer financial markets upon advice provided to us internally which led to a decision being made to voiding off both the ‘Bitcoin 2020 Close Price’ and ‘Ethereum 2020 Close Price’ markets.
> There isn't much more information I could provide you with regarding these markets at the moment however as all bets have been voided off in the process, all liabilities have been cleared off the markets.


PaddyPower, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Boylesports  have all ceased offering bets on financial markets.  There must have been a directive from the financial regulators, probably along the lines that they should be subject to much stricter KYC and AML requirements than they have been implementing.  Regulation gone mad.  Anyone who has lost on betting with bookmakers on financial markets in the past should look for their money back on the grounds that they were in breach of regulations


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## EmmDee (14 Apr 2020)

Possibly related to the fact that most financial markets have restricted or banned short selling over the last week or two to reduce volatility - which I'm sure impacts the betting markets on those underlying markets.


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## Duke of Marmalade (14 Apr 2020)

EmmDee said:


> Possibly related to the fact that most financial markets have restricted or banned short selling over the last week or two to reduce volatility - which I'm sure impacts the betting markets on those underlying markets.


That is possible.  I wonder have the likes of IG Index been affected.  Betfair invariably have rules for any market, which gives them considerable discretion to change the terms or even cancel in certain circumstances.  However, if they have been forced to cancel because the regulators now regard that they were in breach of regulation I wonder how solid is their ground for cancellation without compensating folk who are "in the money".   The complete lack of transparency rather brings into question the appropriateness of the last four letters of their trademark.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (14 Apr 2020)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> However, if they have been forced to cancel because the regulators now regard that they were in breach of regulation I wonder how solid is their ground for cancellation without compensating folk who are "in the money".



Cancelling the market is the least unfair option.

No one was "in the money" because the race was a long way from over.


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## Fella (14 Apr 2020)

Betfair have history of bad decisions, back in 2010 they ran a "Happy hour" promotion unlimited bonuses with 10x wagering requirements. When Betfair realised it was a crazy idea they locked all players accounts who took part in the promotion as per terms of the promotion. They confiscated over 100k from my account. I had withdrawn some of that money to moneybookers ( I think that withdrawal was instant back in the day) and moneybookers sent the money back from my e-wallet to Betfair. They also chargedback money from my bank account succesfully which was absolutely crazy I had murder with the bank over it. There was lots of people involved , I think Betfair lost 8 figures from that night , there was many court cases. You can google Betfair Happy hour and read about it. 

Around 2012 I was alerted to a horse who was leading a race but the odds where moving in the wrong direction , the horse was winning but the odds where increasing , I got some money on the horse in running and won, the race was suspended but all bets where void. I can't remember what happened but apparently it was a very large trader that had programmed a "bot" incorrectly. It's hard to get much joy with Betfair , you usually end up going down the legal route.


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Apr 2020)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> No one was "in the money" because the race was a long way from over.



Coyote

You clearly do not understand the expression "in the money".

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Apr 2020)

Fella said:


> Unfortunately, we are no longer allowed to offer financial markets upon advice provided to us internally which led to a decision being made to voiding off both the ‘Bitcoin 2020 Close Price’ and ‘Ethereum 2020 Close Price’ markets.



Fella

Thanks for that.  It's amazing that they did not notify those of us who placed bets.

I also had a bet on a coalition  between FF and FG at about 16/1 which now looks unlikely.  Pity they wouldn't void that. 

Brendan


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## elacsaplau (14 Apr 2020)

Fella said:


> .........you usually end up going down the legal route.



What's the craic here.....I had thought bets were unenforceable legally? Any good summary of what the law provides?


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## Duke of Marmalade (14 Apr 2020)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> Cancelling the market is the least unfair option.
> 
> No one was "in the money" because the race was a long way from over.


Maybe this will help explain.  Betfair operate a "cash out" facility.  On the click of a mouse you can cash out your bet even though the race/event is in the future.  If you are "in the money" cash-out will cause Betfair to transfer money to your account and vice versa if you are "out the money".  But even without the cash-out  facility you can always "close out" your bet by taking the opposite position.  If you are "in the money" that will result in a crystallized profit and vice versa.


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## Fella (14 Apr 2020)

elacsaplau said:


> What's the craic here.....I had thought bets were unenforceable legally? Any good summary of what the law provides?



My case was against the Betfair Casino , Betfair is an exchange so in general your just betting against other users Betfair doesn't have any liability. 
I pursued the Casino through the Advertising Standards in the UK and so did other players , they found against Betfair but Betfair still withheld the funds , the only punishment for Betfair was not to use similar advertisement again. I hired a solicitor in the UK, my case against them was that they had no right taking back my money from my bank account.  They froze my account for deposits and withdrawals with a considerable amount in it , I "chip dumped" the money to my wife's account and withdrew it. They settled out of court with a non disclosure clause.


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## Duke of Marmalade (14 Apr 2020)

Fella said:


> My case was against the Betfair Casino , Betfair is an exchange so in general your just betting against other users Betfair doesn't have any liability.
> I pursued the Casino through the Advertising Standards in the UK and so did other players , they found against Betfair but Betfair still withheld the funds , the only punishment for Betfair was not to use similar advertisement again. I hired a solicitor in the UK, my case against them was that they had no right taking back my money from my bank account.  They froze my account for deposits and withdrawals with a considerable amount in it , I "chip dumped" the money to my wife's account and withdrew it. They settled out of court with a non disclosure clause.


Incredible stuff.  The NDA was a mistake.  Knocks about 50% off the film rights.


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## elacsaplau (14 Apr 2020)

I see that the Journal.ie is running with this story

*Leading financial commentator's expected Bitcoin windfall goes missing*

_A well known financial expert has come out on the wrong side of developments in a recent Bitcoin trade. In a surprising admission, Mr. Burgess claimed to be unaware of the regulatory, legal and contractual changes which have resulted in his undisclosed paper profit being negated. It is understood that sources close to Mr. Burgess, a Fella, has recommended legal action...……..._


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## MrEarl (15 Apr 2020)

elacsaplau said:


> I see that the Journal.ie is running with this story...



Are you sure that wasn't WaterfordWhispers?


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