# How Healthy is the Chinese Economy Really?



## Superman (7 Jun 2006)

There is a rather good geopolitical thinktank which can be subscribed to - Stratfor.com. (Not sure if anyone else subscribes) An interesting article on China was sent yesterday:

*Moderator note: *Replicated article removed - please don't post copyright material in full. Post a link or a synposis instead. See the posting guidelines:


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## Chamar (7 Jun 2006)

I didn't read that but my answer would be that we will see after the Olympics are over.


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## Sherman (7 Jun 2006)

In answer to your question, not healthy at all. It is a communist state, and as such can never, never have a 'healthy' market economy, despite what the pro-China cheerleaders say.


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## Superman (7 Jun 2006)

Apologies to the moderators - unfortunately it seems the articles already sent out cannot be accessed without signing up (and probably paying) to the website.


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## Guest107 (7 Jun 2006)

*Chinese Economy*

Links to the same story (Fitch sez that chinas banks have bad loans around the same value as Chinas foreign reserves)  are also to be found here and elsewhere

[broken link removed]

Officially its US$150-200BN based on disclosed data.

Unofficially it COULD be $700BN or even up to $911BN according to Ernst and Young....but they withdrew that allegation under pressure from the Chinese Government last month

The external reserves are around $800BN

The issue has been glossed over in China to date because of strong economic growth.


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## bearishbull (7 Jun 2006)

Banking system collapse quite possible
Civil and political upheaval quite likely
Rampant inflation inside economy (circa 10%)
Population is aging quickly ,population will be declining fast before it becomes the economic superpower some claim.
Currency being pegged is artificially keeping its exports cheap etc


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## ClubMan (7 Jun 2006)

bearishbull said:
			
		

> Civil and political upheaval quite likely


This has already been happening for several years even if little of it gets reported widely.


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## Superman (7 Jun 2006)

Gee, I thought I'd have a new story for you guys....

I'm impressed by yere knowledge.


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## ClubMan (7 Jun 2006)

Eh?


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## Superman (7 Jun 2006)

I was commenting on the fact that to a number of the regular posters on this forum this report seems like old news.

(it was a compliment).


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## room305 (9 Jun 2006)

For anyone still interested, Jim Jubak at MSN money has written a good article on this exact issue. His theory is that the recent and forthcoming offerings of IPOs of Chinese banks to financial institutions like Goldman Sachs is a means of importing discipline. In this way, they can fight the inflation caused by bad moneylending practices without hiking interest rates too much and risking wrecking their economy.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/ChinaBanksAwaitDisciplineFromAbroad.aspx


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