# New CSO House Price Index



## David Quinn (28 Apr 2011)

I noticed in the Irish Times today a small piece noting the launch of a new Independent House Price Index from the Central Statistics Office. The first index level will be announced on Friday 13th May. Whoever picked that date in the CSO has a dark sense of humour! This has been badly needed for a long time and will replace the usual PTSB and Daft indices that are being used by the media at the moment. Everytime I hear new data from either index I feel they are not accurate and the reality seems different. The Daft indices in particular is limited and doesn't seem to mirror the wider market. The new CSO index will use data from 8 banks, gathering mortgage drawdown figures to estimate the average price for each particular unit type (Apartment, Semi D, Detached etc). The first index will show data going back to 2005 and will be issued monthly from May onwards. This will finally allow us to get a more accurate estimate of property prices and a reliable regular and independent monthly trend.
One downside of all this good information is its usefullness for the government if/when they introduce property taxes.

I can't post links yet, but the full article is in todays Irish Times (28th April 2011, Property Supplement)


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## extopia (28 Apr 2011)

[broken link removed]


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## flattea2 (28 Apr 2011)

Agree David. About time to get an independent index.

I dont trust the Daft one at all, and it just seems to be an exercise in publicity for them. Similarly the pTSB one is also flawed due to the composition of their book.


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## fobs (28 Apr 2011)

Why not just have a register of house prices based on what the house actually sold for so you could see exactly how houses are valued in an area like they do in the UK?


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## flattea2 (28 Apr 2011)

fobs said:


> Why not just have a register of house prices based on what the house actually soled for so you could see exactly how houses are valued in an area like they do in the UK?


 
I think the vendor/ purchaser here are under no obligation at present to reveal the price. Thats part of the problem.


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## TheJackal (28 Apr 2011)

fobs said:


> Why not just have a register of house prices based on what the house actually soled for so you could see exactly how houses are valued in an area like they do in the UK?


 
It's coming, supposedly. The National Property Services Regulatory Authority has remained as an interim body for 4 years now pending legislation which will give them powers to publish the information.

Also see a recent article in the [broken link removed]


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## TheJackal (28 Apr 2011)

Just spotted another article in today's Independent


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## sadie (28 Apr 2011)

How does this House Price Index differ from the reports Dept of Environment had been producing up until about a year ago, when they just stopped doing it for some reason?
http://www.environ.ie/en/Publications/StatisticsandRegularPublications/HousingStatistics/


Also, do the 8 banks have to provide *ALL* their mortgage data each month, or just an 'appropriate' sample I wonder.


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## NorfBank (29 Apr 2011)

David Quinn said:


> This will finally allow us to get a more accurate estimate of property prices and a reliable regular and independent monthly trend.



Unfortunately not.



Actual house prices will not be published.
It will just index the percentage change of 4 markets. Dublin houses, Dublin apartments, outside Dublin residential price changes and overall national price trends.
Some mortgage providers are not taking part including Ulster Bank.
Cash buyers are not included (50% of the market)
So now we can look forward to not one, not two but three flawed house price indices. Super.

[broken link removed]


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## Brendan Burgess (1 May 2011)

> Cash buyers are not included (50% of the market)



Hi NorfBank

That is a very interesting figure. Is it official or your informed estimate? 

Brendan


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## Don_08 (1 May 2011)

Sorry for asking a stupid question but would revenue not have actual house prices, for stamp duty purposes? Why can't this data be used?


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## NorfBank (2 May 2011)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi NorfBank
> 
> That is a very interesting figure. Is it official or your informed estimate?
> 
> Brendan



I've seen the figure quoted in various sources Brendan but this is the only online one I could find.

_A spokesperson for the Real Estate Alliance said that between 40pc and 50pc of the recent house sales were to cash buyers, adding that the recent distressed auction also proved that cash buyers prefer to buy cheaper properties, including houses which need substantial refurbishment.
_


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## venice (2 May 2011)

In other words pulled out of thin air.


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## Protocol (3 May 2011)

NorfBank said:


> Actual house prices will not be published.
> It will just index the percentage change of 4 markets. Dublin houses, Dublin apartments, outside Dublin residential price changes and overall national price trends.
> Some mortgage providers are not taking part including Ulster Bank.
> Cash buyers are not included (50% of the market)




This is worse than useless.

Why do we often makes a hames of things in Irl?

Both the USA and UK publish actual average house prices.


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## TheJackal (19 May 2011)

The March 2011 CSO stats are out [broken link removed]

And this is the [broken link removed]


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## TheJackal (7 Jun 2011)

April 2011 [broken link removed]


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## TheJackal (22 Jun 2011)

[broken link removed]


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## TheJackal (12 Sep 2011)

[broken link removed] and [broken link removed]


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## TheJackal (26 Sep 2011)

[broken link removed]figures are out today​

*Overall Decline*​*House prices in Dublin are 48% lower *than at their highest level in early 2007 (decreased by 3.4% in the month)
Apartments in Dublin are now 57% lower than they were in February 2007 (fell by 6% in the month of August)
Residential property prices in Dublin are 51% lower than at their highest level in February 2007 (fell by 3.8% in August)
The fall in the price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at 40%. 
Overall, the national index is 43% lower than its highest level in 2007.
　
Note the chunky drops in Aug, though these may be somewhat skewed if there are little sales in a month, as the index is based on actual sale agreed figures.

Per the latest by IBF/PwC, there were just 3,551 mortgage drawdowns in Q2 this year, compared to around 30,000 per quarter at the peak of the market.


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## TheJackal (25 Oct 2011)

*[broken link removed] figures*

*Overall Decline*​House prices in Dublin are 49% lowerthan at their highest level in early 2007 (fell by 1.7% in the month of September)

Apartments in Dublin are now 59% lower than they were in February 2007 (fell by 4.8% in the month of September)

Residential property prices in Dublin are 52% lower than at their highest level in February 2007 (fell by 2.1% in September)

The fall in the price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at 40% (a fall of 1% in September and 14.3% in the year to September)

Overall, the national index is 44% lower than its highest level in 2007 (fell by 1.5% in September)


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## TheJackal (21 Nov 2011)

*[broken link removed] figures*

*Overall Decline*​House prices in Dublin are 51% lower than at their highest level in early 2007 (fell by 3.2% in the month of October)

Apartments in Dublin are now 60% lower than they were in February 2007 (fell by 2.3% in the month of October)

Residential property prices in Dublin are 53% lower than at their highest level in February 2007 (fell by 3.1% in October)

The fall in the price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at 42% (a fall of 2.2% in October and 15.1% in the year to October)

Overall, the national index is 45% lower than its highest level in 2007 (fell by 1% in October)


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## ajapale (21 Nov 2011)

NorfBank said:


> Cash buyers are not included (50% of the market)



Thanks Jackal,

from the CSO report:
*Background Notes*
Definition The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) is designed to measure the change in the average level of prices paid for residential properties sold in Ireland. The index is mix-adjusted to allow for the fact that different types of property are sold in different periods. Data Source The RPPI is compiled using data on mortgage drawdowns provided on a monthly basis by 8 of the main Mortgage Lending Institutions under Section 13 of the Housing Act (2002). This data provides details on the characteristics of properties bought (such as building type and size) as well as the price paid. It is transactions based; meaning that prices are recorded only where a sale occurs. 

Not all residential property transactions are funded by a mortgage (i.e. they are cash based) and these transactions are excluded from the scope of the index. The CSO has conducted an initial preliminary analysis of Stamp Duty returns (ST21 returns) to the Revenue Commissioners. As all transfers of residential property require that a Stamp Duty return is made, this analysis allows us to estimate the total size of the residential property market (excluding the construction of self-build houses). From this we can estimate the coverage provided by the mortgage transactions reported to the CSO. The latest available data is in respect of 2009. *

The table below shows that, in volume terms, the mortgage drawdown data covers in excess of 75% of the market, as measured by Stamp Duty returns, in 4 of the 5 years between 2005 and 2009. *


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## TheJackal (20 Dec 2011)

Nov 2011 & Overall figures are:

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releas ... ov2011.pdf

House prices in Dublin are 52% lower than at their highest level in early 2007 (fell by 2.4% in the month of November)

Apartments in Dublin are now 58% lower than they were in February 2007 (rose by 4.7% in the month of November)

Residential property prices in Dublin are 54% lower than at their highest level in February 2007 (fell by 1.5% in November)

The fall in the price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at 42% (a fall of 1.6% in October and 15.6% in the year to November)

Overall, the national index is 46% lower than its highest level in 2007 (fell by 1.5% in November)

It is worth noting that there is very little activity presently, so small sales can skew the figures.

Per IBF, there were only 3,600 mortgage drawdowns in Q3 2011, with an average mortgage size of 156K

http://www.ibf.ie/Libraries/Research_St ... .sflb.ashx


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