# A run on the banks?



## canicemcavoy (30 Sep 2010)

It's quite an eye-opener that most postings in the "Deposits" are related to moving deposits out of Irish banks. I'm considering this myself, possibly sorting it out today. It seems that even with the guarantee, people no longer have confidence in the ability of the state to pay out on that guarantee if the worst happens.


----------



## irishmoss (30 Sep 2010)

How safe is Ulster Bank if worst happens?


----------



## glasto (30 Sep 2010)

I don't know but I have my cash in Ulster Bank NI just in case.


----------



## shnaek (30 Sep 2010)

It is interesting alright. People at work have been talking about it too, and I don't work in business.


----------



## Happy Girl (30 Sep 2010)

glasto said:


> I don't know but I have my cash in Ulster Bank NI just in case.


 
Does anyone know if it is possible to transfer an Ulster Bank Account in republic to Ulster Bank Account in NI.


----------



## Towger (30 Sep 2010)

Pulling out if the Euro is still a problem. In a previous post someone said the Rabo told them they would probably convert customers balances in to the 'New Punt' value. Which will of course devalue very quickly.


----------



## glasto (30 Sep 2010)

Happy Girl said:


> Does anyone know if it is possible to transfer an Ulster Bank Account in republic to Ulster Bank Account in NI.



Ulster Bank NI and Ulster Bank Ireland are seperate entities, so you can transfer monies between them in the normal fashion, but you will need to have seperate accounts in each entity. They give a pretty poor exchange rate too. So if you want to move your cash you will need to set up a new NI account, then move your money as you see fit.


----------



## Happy Girl (30 Sep 2010)

Many thanks for that Glasto. Will investigate further.


----------



## Kev (30 Sep 2010)

From the BBC news Brian Lenihan says it only the Anglo Irish Bank and AIB and Nationwide building society that are in trouble but the BoI is OK.

Does this link makes sense

[broken link removed]


----------



## Towger (30 Sep 2010)

With the extra money the government is pumping into AIB, are they (we) going to ending up with the majority stake holding in the company?
Just read the link, so yes (@80%) is the answer.


----------



## penguin (30 Sep 2010)

canicemcavoy said:


> *It's quite an eye-opener that most postings in the "Deposits" are related to moving deposits out of Irish banks.* I'm considering this myself, possibly sorting it out today. It seems that even with the guarantee, people no longer have confidence in the ability of the state to pay out on that guarantee if the worst happens.


 

This is normal at a time like this ?
Fear its called .
Of what MIGHT happen.
I presume that if there was to be a run on the banks , things WOULD get worse and aid in the downfall of some of them .

On the other hand , 
i presume there a lot of people who think things will be ok and the EU will help us get it sorted out , but they are NOT posting it !!!!!
there are 106k views of the best buy thread !!

Who knows.


----------



## Kev (30 Sep 2010)

From Lenihan's tv intereview on BBC he said that they were not going to default on loans and had money put by for that.  

Also it would be very bad for EU as a whole if a bank went belly up.  Look at the UK in 2007/8 a lot of banks merged this would make more sense.


----------



## canicemcavoy (30 Sep 2010)

A bnk doesn't have to go belly up for a run on deposits to happen. That's due to confidence, and currently there is a national lack of confidence in the government's economic policy.


----------



## glasto (30 Sep 2010)

Kev said:


> From Lenihan's tv intereview on BBC he said that they were not going to default on loans and had money put by for that.
> 
> Also it would be very bad for EU as a whole if a bank went belly up.  Look at the UK in 2007/8 a lot of banks merged this would make more sense.



As for your first point, well it all depends on whether you trust Len with your savings.


----------



## shnaek (30 Sep 2010)

glasto said:


> Ulster Bank NI and Ulster Bank Ireland are seperate entities, so you can transfer monies between them in the normal fashion, but you will need to have seperate accounts in each entity. They give a pretty poor exchange rate too. So if you want to move your cash you will need to set up a new NI account, then move your money as you see fit.


I have heard of people opening accounts in NI with addresses here in the south - is that possible?
Can you open a Euro account in the north?


----------



## penguin (30 Sep 2010)

glasto said:


> As for your first point, well it all depends on whether you trust Len with your savings.


 

thats true .
they did say on primetime (Tues night) that we had the finance IN place already till June next year . Then he said today , we would be borrowing any more money at the moment as the interest rate was too high .We would wait for a few months and hopefully the rate will be down .
Which SEEMS to add up .


----------



## shnaek (30 Sep 2010)

glasto said:


> As for your first point, well it all depends on whether you trust Len with your savings.



Or whoever takes over after Lenny...


----------



## Kev (30 Sep 2010)

penguin said:


> thats true .
> they did say on primetime (Tues night) that we had the finance IN place already till June next year . Then he said today , we would be borrowing any more money at the moment as the interest rate was too high .We would wait for a few months and hopefully the rate will be down .
> Which SEEMS to add up .



This is correct this is an extract from the link below:

Lenihan said Ireland, which is fully funded until late June 2011, had  decided to cancel its bond auctions in October and November and would  return to the bond markets as normal in early 2011.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39432784/ns/business/


----------



## callybags (30 Sep 2010)

> On the other hand ,
> i presume there a lot of people who think things will be ok and the EU will help us get it sorted out , but they are NOT posting it !!!!!
> there are 106k views of the best buy thread !!
> 
> Who knows.


 
For what it's worth, I have no fear of banks, or Ireland going bust to the point where I will not be able to access savings. 90% (not an enourmous sum) of my savings are in Anglo.


----------



## canicemcavoy (30 Sep 2010)

callybags said:


> For what it's worth, I have no fear of banks, or Ireland going bust to the point where I will not be able to access savings. 90% (not an enourmous sum) of my savings are in Anglo.


 
How your AIB shares from 2008 doing?


----------



## callybags (30 Sep 2010)

canicemcavoy said:


> How your AIB shares from 2008 doing?


 
?   Never had any AIB shares.


----------



## Kev (30 Sep 2010)

Uk will have to cope with 25% cuts across the board in the couple of weeks time. Also VAT is going up from 17 and half % in January to 20%.  House prices are falling daily so it looks like all of the EU has problmes.


----------



## canicemcavoy (30 Sep 2010)

callybags said:


> ? Never had any aib shares.


 
boi?


----------



## glasto (30 Sep 2010)

shnaek said:


> I have heard of people opening accounts in NI with addresses here in the south - is that possible?
> Can you open a Euro account in the north?



I have a NI account with an address in the South, although it was opened originally with an NI address many years ago. It was actually a dormant account for many years, but they had no problem with me resurrecting it with a Southern address, so I don't see why they wouldn't let you open one.

I can't help you on the second point, my account is in STG.


----------



## callybags (30 Sep 2010)

canicemcavoy said:


> boi?


 
Yep. Still have them.

I look on share purchases as a gamble. Win some-lose some.


----------



## shnaek (30 Sep 2010)

glasto said:


> I have a NI account with an address in the South, although it was opened originally with an NI address many years ago. It was actually a dormant account for many years, but they had no problem with me resurrecting it with a Southern address, so I don't see why they wouldn't let you open one.
> 
> I can't help you on the second point, my account is in STG.



Thanks for that. I used to have an account in Germany so I might look at resurrecting that.


----------



## canicemcavoy (30 Sep 2010)

callybags said:


> Yep. Still have them.
> 
> I look on share purchases as a gamble. Win some-lose some.


 
True, but I don't think people look at their life savings as win-some lose-some.


----------



## callybags (30 Sep 2010)

I understand that.

I did say that it was just my opinion about deposits being safe.

Everyone has to make up their own mind.


----------



## Peter54 (30 Sep 2010)

Friends of mine have removed savings from Irish institutions and lodged them in the UK.


----------



## JoeB (30 Sep 2010)

Personally I moved my small amount of savings, 20K perhaps, from BOI to gold about six months ago... I'm surprised more people aren't considering gold. After all, people are worried about currency collaspes, it'd seem that gold is one of the most effective 'hedges' against a Euro collaspe, or an Irish default.

Currency collaspes happen quickly, and wouldn't usually be talked about beforehand... basically I'd imagine a scenario where the banks close for the weekend, and then the accounts are locked, and when the banks next open all your accounts have been converted to a rapidly devaluing new currency. Any other approach would seem to lead to chaos... or more chaos.

I think this is where 'bank holiday' came from... when the US government banned private ownership of gold and closed the banks for a 'holiday'..  .. when the banks next opened in the US there was a representive from the US treasury in every bank, and safety deposit boxes could only be opened in his presence, any gold within was confisacated (i.e bought at below fair value)..

So keeping your gold in a foreign country, with strong personal property laws, is a good bet. I use BullionVault for gold. Apparently it can be quite dangerous to own gold if your government has banned private ownership.. trying to leave the country with it would be similar to smuggling cocaine or heroin today.


----------



## Westgolf (30 Sep 2010)

Why not invest in gold certs and save the storage issue..? If such a crash/run/whatever was to take place would it not be equally hard to realise the value of your bullion holding at short notice without taking a hit on the expected value ?

Just wondering,

Westgolf


----------



## JoeB (30 Sep 2010)

I'm not sure what a gold cert is.. is it an EFT?

Apparently these aren't 100% secure. There might also be a weight discount applied which I don't fully understand.

It's horses for courses perhaps, but I like the BullionVault arrangement, where they are paid to mind my gold, but my gold is my property, even if they go bust, and this arrangement is very secure under UK law. (BullionVault are British). 

The EFTs... here I believe that you are only a creditor of the company selling EFTs, they don't do allocated gold I think, so if they go bust you must wait in line for your 50c in the Euro or whatever... allocated gold storage is more secure I think.

There's a huge amount of info on these issues in the BullionVault FAQs


----------



## chewchew (30 Sep 2010)

Towger said:


> Pulling out if the Euro is still a problem. In a previous post someone said the Rabo told them they would probably convert customers balances in to the 'New Punt' value. Which will of course devalue very quickly.



Is that true? Can they do legally do that? I was going to move my money to rabo this week, if thats the case I'll have to think again. If I opened a Euro account with nationwide UK could they end up doing the same thing?


----------



## Godfather (30 Sep 2010)

chewchew said:


> Is that true? Can they do legally do that? I was going to move my money to rabo this week, if thats the case I'll have to think again. If I opened a Euro account with nationwide UK could they end up doing the same thing?



Yes, it's possible. I read an article in which it was explained that Ireland has the 2nd biggest GDP per capita and poorer countries like Slovakia would never help Ireland if something happens.

Anything can happen, even a domino effect that would lead the Euro to disappear AT LEAST until a better political and taxation armonization happens, I believe that too many steps for a currency union have been skipped in creating the Euro


----------



## chewchew (30 Sep 2010)

Can anyone suggest a place where I can keep my cash in Euros or £ and they wouldn't be converted to 'new punt's' (if that scenario did happen)?


----------



## Godfather (30 Sep 2010)

Some clues are in this thread:
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=143938


----------



## Happy Girl (30 Sep 2010)

And here.....
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=144076


----------



## chewchew (30 Sep 2010)

Thanks Godfather and Happygirl. Looks like its not exactly straight forward to open an account abroad then. I'm seriously considering burying it out the back yard now.


----------



## Godfather (30 Sep 2010)

chewchew said:


> Thanks Godfather and Happygirl. Looks like its not exactly straight forward to open an account abroad then. I'm seriously considering burying it out the back yard now.


 
Mistake! Your IP address can give clues to potential hackers...


----------



## pudds (30 Sep 2010)

chewchew said:


> Thanks Godfather and Happygirl. Looks like its not exactly straight forward to open an account abroad then. I'm seriously considering burying it out the back yard now.




+1 at this stage....the old biscuit tin.

not worried about IP address i.d. as I'm on mobile broadband


If ya won the lotto *where* would you put that lot


----------



## Westgolf (30 Sep 2010)

*ref - gold*



JoeBallantin said:


> I'm not sure what a gold cert is.. is it an EFT?
> 
> Apparently these aren't 100% secure. There might also be a weight discount applied which I don't fully understand.
> 
> ...



Hi joeballantin

This is not an EFT as such.The holding in a gold certificate such as the perth mint programme is stored on your behalf and you have the choice of allocated storage where your holding is held seperately within a safety deposit box type of vault, or unallocated where you pay slightly less and its held with the general holding. It is a less bureaucratic and more transparent system. The relative distance away from the european arena and hence  a minimal exposure to its vagaries is the other attraction for punters from the EU area.

It is horses for courses as you say but what would happen if your storage company went belly-up in a big way ? would you not have to join the queue to gain possession of your goods and hope that the paper trail supported you ? 

westgolf


----------



## Marc (30 Sep 2010)

Given the concerns being shown by many posters around the solvency of the banks and even the State, please have a look at some recent posts on my blog which can be found [broken link removed] for sensible strategies to cope in uncertain times.


----------



## Godfather (1 Oct 2010)

Great article Marc! Thank you!


----------



## canicemcavoy (1 Oct 2010)

Kev said:


> Uk will have to cope with 25% cuts across the board in the couple of weeks time. Also VAT is going up from 17 and half % in January to 20%. House prices are falling daily so it looks like all of the EU has problmes.


 
Sorry, Kev, maybe you're trying to reassure yourself that everyone's in the same boat, but it's not the case. Ireland's problems exceed others:

From today's Guardian:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/oct/01/ireland-economy-editorial



> From Greece to Japan to the US, countries across the world have been devastated by the banking crisis. But no economy has been wrecked quite so brutally as Ireland's. The erstwhile Celtic Tiger has seen its national income shrink 17% over the past three years – the deepest and swiftest contraction of any western country since the Great Depression. At the height of the long boom from 1990 to 2007, property in Dublin was worth more than in London. Since then, prices have dropped by around 40% – and are still sinking. At this rate, the country will soon hold the dubious honour of hosting the biggest property bubble and bust in modern history. When financiers joked in 2008 that the only difference between bankrupt Iceland and hard-up Ireland was one letter and a few days, they got it wrong – the mess the Emerald Isle is now in is so much worse. [...] Yesterday's bailout will include Anglo Irish, the property developer's favourite bank, as well as Allied Irish and Irish Nationwide – and it is set to raise the budget deficit from around 12% of national income to an astounding 32%.


 
Don't forget that right now Iceland can borrow money more cheaply than Ireland - it's seen as a safer bet.


----------



## Godfather (1 Oct 2010)

canicemcavoy said:


> Don't forget that right now Iceland can borrow money more cheaply than Ireland - it's seen as a safer bet.



I am shocked!  And in a documentary I was reading that people have 2/3 jobs in order to keep paying their mortgage there! 

I've just finished moving my savings abroad, I wish you good shelters for your savings as well and that this nightmare could be lighter than we all think.  I'm now taking a bit of break from RTE News, Freefall-style documentaries, & also a bit from AAM sorry (but I thank all the people that shared their suggestions on moving money abroad), in other words from the rush of panic that caught me in the last few weeks since Cowen released that horrendous interview...


----------



## DocOc (1 Oct 2010)

*Before you go....*

Before you go....
                       Well done Godfather. Can you share your solution(s)? Did you manage to open an offshore account? If so can you let us know? Thanks in advance.


----------



## Maynooth (1 Oct 2010)

Just got word that some banks are reporting a very brisk trade this lunchtime.


----------



## elcato (1 Oct 2010)

> Can you share your solution(s)? Did you manage to open an offshore account?


From earlier postings he is an Italian citizen so can open accounts there. Much safer there than here. Now what did the acronym PIIGS stand for again .......


----------



## Lightning (1 Oct 2010)

Maynooth said:


> Just got word that some banks are reporting a very brisk trade this lunchtime.



Read into the BOI, EBS and Ulster deposit rate increases lately. Why are they doing this? Why these banks? The answer is they are not getting more state funds and they are also, at the same time, desperate for more deposits. 

There is more than anecdotal evidence that Irish banks are losing deposits heavily right now.


----------



## Bobby1 (1 Oct 2010)

In a realistic view do people actually think a bank will be allowed to fail at this vital time when things do seem to be improving albeit it yesterdays clarify on the banks position going forward?

With Anglo ,AIB, INBS nationalised, BOI seem to be in good shape, EBS looks like it will have a new owner and my feeling is it will be PTSB. With EU heads, IMF Irish Gov all stating that Irelands debt is manageable etc... whats the obsession with moving funds out of irish banks?

I would assume BOI, EBS and Ulster rate increases are largely due to the need to compete with government owned institutions also, like An Post and Anglo Irish. An Post are offering 10% net for 3 years for instance, EBS are offering 9.50% gross... of course they have to increase their rates, no institution can afford to lose deposits


----------



## z107 (2 Oct 2010)

> In a realistic view do people actually think a bank will be allowed to fail at this vital time when things do seem to be improving albeit it yesterdays clarify on the banks position going forward?


In what way are things improving?

It looks like people are starting to not want to even keep deposits in Irish banks. That is not a good sign. If this becomes mainstream then we'll  have even more problems.
The bank guarantee is only as good as peoples' perception of it.


----------



## Chris (2 Oct 2010)

umop3p!sdn said:


> In what way are things improving?



I was wondering the same thing. If anything things are getting worse: 
The total cost of bailing out banks is now 10 times what it was said it would be. And I still don't believe this figure is correct and rather optimistic. 
Unemployment may have stalled but there is still no improvement. 
GDP is still going down. 
Ever more people are joining the list of people in mortgage arrears. 
Ireland is still seen as too expensive by tourists.
Budget deficit is still about 50% of annual outgoings.
Tax increases are on the way which will only exacerbate all of the above.

I see nothing positive on the economic ro political side of things here.


----------



## Lightning (2 Oct 2010)

Bobby1 said:


> In a realistic view do people actually think a bank will be allowed to fail at this vital time when things do seem to be improving albeit it yesterdays clarify on the banks position going forward?



Thursday, did not bring final clarity. It was attempt number 4 to bring a line in the sand, there is far worse to come for Irish banking sector. 

For INBS, we still do not know what is in the 5.4 billion estimate. Does it include the cost of a wind down and the cost of closing the 48 branches? What will happen to the deposit holders when INBS closes? Do their deposits actually exist beyond 7% capital? 

For AIB, we do not know for certain what the final state holding will be in the bank. AIB is only been kept alive by huge ECB 1% repo's. Without ECB support, AIB would collapse. This is not a future for any bank. The EC decision on the future of AIB will be interesting to say the least. 

For Anglo, I will only believe the 'final cost' when this basket case bank closes for good. From looking at their balance sheet, in a lot of detail, I believe they are still not been truthful about their non NAMA loan losses. 80% of value is fancifulness. 

For BOI, we will see if their 2011 "funding cliff" does to it what the 2010 "funding cliff" did to AIB. If credit/debt markets do not improve, the Irish government could be forced to increase their stake in BOI in late 2011.


----------

