# "Ireland has passed its peak"



## Brendan Burgess (7 Apr 2020)

Coronavirus: Minister signs regulations giving gardaí powers to enforce lockdown
					

Republic sees record highest daily figure for new deaths at 36 bringing total to 210




					www.irishtimes.com
				




_Ireland__ has passed its peak of Covid-19 infections but can expect more than 400 deaths by August, according to new international modelling data published on Tuesday.

Peak resource use of hospital and ICU beds passed on April 4th, while peak deaths passed on April 6th, according to the data published by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US.

...

It says the peak of the pandemic has passed in many European countries, including Spain, Italy and France, where 19,209, 20,300 and 15,058 deaths are predicted, respectively._

Edit: The Irish Times has updated its online report

*National Publc Health Emergency Team in Ireland criticises US research as unreliable*

_However, NPHET officials in Ireland criticised the US research as unreliable.

“It’s not really a model. It just took existing case data and suggested that because things seem to have stabilised over a short number of days that perhaps we’ve reached a peak,” said assistant chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn.

“It doesn’t take into account any changes over the coming days or the highest number of deaths reported this evening.”


Dr Glynn said Irish modelling being led by NUI Maynooth president Prof Philip Nolan was using a more extensive range of paramenters and people should wait to see what comes out of this work.

Placing “undue store” in the US research could lead to complacency, he warned._


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## Eireog007 (7 Apr 2020)

That seems very premature to state that given pretty much every expert has refused to state when the peak will be. If it’s true that’s great news but I would take that with a large handful of salt for the moment.


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## joer (7 Apr 2020)

Although it seems that Spain,Italy, UK and France etc are having less deaths but still a lot of numbers Belgium ,Holland are having increased amount of deaths as in USA. I think it is a bit soon to say that the peak has passed. Ireland are hoping to have 4,500 people tested every day so we will have to wait and see what this brings about.


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## Drakon (7 Apr 2020)

I hope these experts are more accurate than election pollsters.


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## seamus m (7 Apr 2020)

459 cases from first 6000 tests sent to Germany to be factored in with rest to follow results up to 2 weeks and over  behind not possible to know yet


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## Brendan Burgess (7 Apr 2020)

seamus m said:


> 459 cases from first 6000 tests sent to Germany



Hi Séamus

Have you a link for this? 

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (7 Apr 2020)

I would imagine that we are past the peak of new infections.    Although the stats. are patchy, the physical distancing and isolation must be reducing the number. 

Though having said that, I am surprised that they put the peak for new infections as late as 4th April. I would have thought it was much earlier. 

I am referring to the true underlying infections, and not the reports of confirmed cases which lag behind the underlying infections. 

The hospitalisations and deaths would lag behind the infections.


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## TarfHead (7 Apr 2020)

The same report suggests 66K deaths in the UK.  Let's hope the actual figure is a small proportion of that.

"_The study predicts 66,300 deaths in the UK, the highest in Europe. The UK’s use of bed resources is predicted to peak on April 17th and its deaths on April 20th._"


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## seamus m (7 Apr 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi Séamus
> 
> Have you a link for this?
> 
> Brendan


Dr holohan said it in yesterday's HSE meeting he said it will be discussed more at today's briefing with more information on the numbers and how they are to factor them in .I was surprised the journalists didn't pick up more on it


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## Purple (7 Apr 2020)

joer said:


> Ireland are hoping to have 4,500 people tested every day so we will have to wait and see what this brings about.


That's great; we'll all be tested in about 3 years.


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## seamus m (7 Apr 2020)

Dr Holohan has just said that report is just not true and I think 36 people dying today underlines it


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## seamus m (7 Apr 2020)

Also 17 cases from 179 German samples mentioned today not sure if counted in, again not picked up by journalists who seem to be asking similar questions although putting doctor  spot regarding being in top tier for testing which at average of 1700 per day for past week I wouldn't think is.


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## mathepac (7 Apr 2020)

The FG PR consultants working for Independent News & Media and RTE are unlikely to question anything coming from Il Duce or his glove-puppets


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## Ravima (7 Apr 2020)

one should never make predictions, especially with regard to the future!


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## Brendan Burgess (7 Apr 2020)

The Irish Times has updated its report 

*National Publc Health Emergency Team in Ireland criticises US research as unreliable*

_However, NPHET officials in Ireland criticised the US research as unreliable.

“It’s not really a model. It just took existing case data and suggested that because things seem to have stabilised over a short number of days that perhaps we’ve reached a peak,” said assistant chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn.

“It doesn’t take into account any changes over the coming days or the highest number of deaths reported this evening.”


Dr Glynn said Irish modelling being led by NUI Maynooth president Prof Philip Nolan was using a more extensive range of paramenters and people should wait to see what comes out of this work.

Placing “undue store” in the US research could lead to complacency, he warned._


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## Megafan (7 Apr 2020)

I wonder if the maths of this virus are consistent in Ireland with widely noted percentages, that is 80% mild to moderate illness, 14% serious and 6% very serious.

If we look at current data, 210 people have died and 194 are in ICU, of which I think 14 died, so possibly these numbers combined  total the 6%, so possibly 1% equals 65 or so people and total infections equal 6,500 presently? My simpleton maths doesn't tie into current hospitalisions, actual numbers are a couple of hundred people higher.

The clusters in nursing homes are the big concerns and will determine everything at the end. Just looking at the people I know or work with, mostly everyone is complying, the few people that I do know that have the virus are on the right side of it so in my circle thankfully so far the measures have worked. Parents are cocooned etc

Ultimately the number of people that die may be the 6% which might be why outlets today are noting deaths circa 400 by August, which seems very optimistic.

All that said, in spite of what we might see on social media, everyone has pulled together on this and it hasn't to date taken the hold it could have if Government hadn't put all those measures in place.

No place for complacency, a second wave is completely plausible, and the country is changed utterly. The tourism industry may as well write off 9/12ths of 2020, we could easily end up back in lockdown later this year until we get to the point of mass vaccination.


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## Drakon (7 Apr 2020)

A “cluster” is three or more people testing positive.  That’s a very low bar.
E.G.
There are four people in my house and three of us had symptoms. Only one tested, with a positive result.
If my home was a nursing home, it would effectively be a cluster.


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## Brendan Burgess (7 Apr 2020)

Hi Drakon

But in your home, the maximum exposure is 4.

In a nursing home, a cluster of 3 could quickly infect a lot more residents and staff.

Brendan


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## odyssey06 (9 Apr 2020)

Number of people infected by confirmed case down from 4 to 1.









						Number of people infected by confirmed case of Covid-19 in Ireland down from four to around one
					

Professor Philip Nolan said the modelling advisory group can see the “profound effect” the measures are having on transmission.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## odyssey06 (10 Apr 2020)

Detailed figures here on RTE on current hospitalised cases and capacity.

858 patients in hospitals with Covid-19, plus 476 patients regarded as suspected cases, who are waiting for test results.
There  are 2,254 general beds vacant in public hospitals.
There are 133 vacant critical care beds in public hospitals and in some private hospitals listed.
Up to Wednesday, there were 146 confirmed Covid-19 patients in critical care units, plus 21 suspected cases in these units.
Most of the confirmed Covid-19 patients in critical care units, are in St James’s (19), Beaumont (16) and the Mater (15). 









						Largest number of Covid-19 cases in Dublin hospitals
					

Three Dublin hospitals have the largest number of confirmed Covid-19 cases - Beaumont Hospital with 132 patients, St James's with 95 and the Mater with 84 cases, according to new HSE figures.




					www.rte.ie


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## Brendan Burgess (10 Apr 2020)

Hi Odyssey
That is great. But what, if anything,  does that tell us about the peak? 

Brendan


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## odyssey06 (10 Apr 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi Odyssey
> That is great. But what, if anything,  does that tell us about the peak?
> Brendan



I was more putting in a benchmark of where we at.
If we see those figures going up \ down from that benchmark we will know where we are in relation to the peak of the crisis.

_(please move to new thread if it's too indirect)_


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## llgon (10 Apr 2020)

HSE planning for peak Covid-19 outbreak to happen in two weeks time based on current modelling
					

The chief operations officer said they are making preparations for the peak to arrive between the 10 and 14 April.




					www.thejournal.ie
				




So we have reached the 10th April, the start of the peak that the HSE were planning for, as revealed by Anne O'Connor on 29th March.  I think this was the only time a HSE or government official revealed dates when they were expecting a peak.  

These dates may have changed by now but I don't think any update has been given?


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## Brendan Burgess (10 Apr 2020)

But it's never clear which peak they are referring to. 

Peak infections? 
Peak hospital admissions? 
Peak ICU? 

Brendan


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## llgon (10 Apr 2020)

In this case it is the Chief Operating Officer of the HSE, she says:

“We do have to work on some basis when it comes to planning and we are planning for a peak between the 10 and 14 April, around that time.”

I would expect that she was referring to peak activity in the hospitals.


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## odyssey06 (10 Apr 2020)

'peak' should mean peak of infections - as there is always a lag between infections to hospitalisations and then a lag to ICU admittance and fatalities.
But our testing regime isn't extensive enough to catch peak infections, so I would interpret it to mean peak hospitalisations.


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## Leo (10 Apr 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> 'peak' should mean peak of infections - as there is always a lag between infections to hospitalisations and then a lag to ICU admittance and fatalities.
> But our testing regime isn't extensive enough to catch peak infections, so I would interpret it to mean peak hospitalisations.



I think we need to consider there may well be multiple peaks to this. Three more weeks of the current restrictions might well see hospital numbers drop, perhaps to the point where they declare we are passed the peak and restrictions are eased somewhat. But at that point the vast majority of the population will still be susceptible to infection, and an easing of restrictions will see the infection rate rise.


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## odyssey06 (10 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> I think we need to consider there may well be multiple peaks to this. Three more weeks of the current restrictions might well see hospital numbers drop, perhaps to the point where they declare we are passed the peak and restrictions are eased somewhat. But at that point the vast majority of the population will still be susceptible to infection, and an easing of restrictions will see the infection rate rise.



There could be and yes the majority of the population will still be susceptible.
But, if we eased the restrictions back on domestic levels while keeping flight restrictions - say to the previous phase (social distancing, no pubs or large gatherings), I'm not sure where the pool of new contagious people are coming from?
As a precaution we should retain the restrictions on visitors eg to nursing homes. and the most vulnerable should still coccon but for the working population would keeping hardware stores etc closed really make a difference. I'm not sure.


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## Leo (10 Apr 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> There could be and yes the majority of the population will still be susceptible.
> But, if we eased the restrictions back on domestic levels while keeping flight restrictions - say to the previous level, I'm not sure where the pool of new contagious people are coming from?



With an estimated 50% of carriers asymptomatic, they're already among us.


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## odyssey06 (10 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> With an estimated 50% of carriers asymptomatic, they're already among us.



Right now yes but after May 5th? Would there be a domestic reservoir of contagious people out there sufficient to restart the cycle?*
_* this is a question, not a rhetorical point_


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## joer (10 Apr 2020)

Right now we have 480 new cases and 194 in a serious or critical condition. And there are still a lot of test results not available yet. So its is hard to say when there will be a peak.


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## Leo (14 Apr 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> Right now yes but after May 5th? Would there be a domestic reservoir of contagious people out there sufficient to restart the cycle?*
> _* this is a question, not a rhetorical point_



The current restrictions aren't sufficient to eliminate it completely, they'll hopefully just bring the rate of new cases down to a level that won't overwhelm the health service. 

I think the authorities are managing the message, issuing a 3 week extension on Friday that was really 3.5 weeks, then drip feeding suggestions since that May 5th will be far from the end of them.


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## odyssey06 (17 Apr 2020)

*"Now in Plateau Position"*
THE CHAIR OF the modelling group advising on the country’s response to Covid-19 has said we are at a “plateau” in terms of the level infections but there is a “delicate balance” to be maintained... 
_In the early stages of this epidemic, the reproduction number was somewhere between 2 and 4. Immediately after the early interventions it looks like the reproduction number was somewhere between 1.5 and 3. And then the last panel shows the pretty high level of confidence in this model that the reproduction number is now below one. _









						'It's in a plateau position': People with Covid-19 now infecting less than one person
					

Professor Philip Nolan has said that any loosening of restrictions must be approached “exceptionally carefully”.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## Leo (17 Apr 2020)

Any guesses on what the R0 value would need to be before they make any significant changes to the current restrictions?


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## odyssey06 (17 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> Any guesses on what the R0 value would need to be before they make any significant changes to the current restrictions?



Based on below quote from above article, they are not aiming for 0...
_"it doesn’t seem to me to be a viable strategy to maintain this level of restriction forever with the hope of eliminating the disease. Because then as soon as you do anything, the disease reappears, it just takes two or three people entering the country with the disease to restart it.” _


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## Eireog007 (17 Apr 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> Based on below quote from above article, they are not aiming for 0...
> _"it doesn’t seem to me to be a viable strategy to maintain this level of restriction forever with the hope of eliminating the disease. Because then as soon as you do anything, the disease reappears, it just takes two or three people entering the country with the disease to restart it.” _



It’s hard to gauge exactly where the best time to start releasing the lockdown would be but in my own head somewhere around 0.5 would make sense and then with bumped up testing monitor the infection rate and when it comes back above 1.0 you tighten restrictions again for a week or two and the rinse and repeat until a vaccine arrives.


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## Sunny (17 Apr 2020)

There is a very good interview with Angela Merkel doing the rounds where she is talking about the reinfection rate. The margins are tiny. Some restrictions can be eased but it is going to be very slow. Germany currently has a rate of 1 and easing some restrictions. As she said, if that goes to 1.1, they will reach hospital capacity in October. If it goes to 1.3, they will reach capacity in June. It's extremely delicate position. Or you could do a Trump on it I suppose.....


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## Leo (17 Apr 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> Based on below quote from above article, they are not aiming for 0...



0 is an impossible target even in the medium to long term, that would require the entire population to have full and effective immunity. I'm not sure that will ever be possible. 

Keeping it below 1 is the focus I believe, so that we don't overwhelm critical care facilities. We started implemented restrictions on March 12th, and went into lockdown on March 27th, and it has taken this long to bring the rate below 1. Reports put the current number between 0.7 and 1 depending on which method they use, unless this drops significantly between now and May 5th, any significant changes to the restrictions will push the rate above 1 again.


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