# AIB and its chances of survival?



## Sarah (23 Nov 2010)

Hi All,

Just wanted to get the general concensus on those of you who are more in the know than myself (which i probally everybody given that my knowledge on political issues is scarce) What are your opnions on AIB bank? My husband works for this company (not a head honcho - just a paper pusher like most of us) and according to him his section is extremly busy - non stop every day and has been for the past year or so (he dosent work for the branches) His company are telling their employees that they are going to roll out voluntary  redundancies and there will be some restructering through the company but mainly selling off branches and any buildings they have abroad and that their jobs are as secure as anyone elses these days, however with the bailout and the banking crisis and the inevitable reorginisation that will happen i was just wondering what people think will happen to AIB? My reasons for asking, i must admit, are personal, not just because its my husbands job but also because my own job in the coming year may offer me a 3 day week and due to childcare arrangements this would be good to take but only if my husband was working full time.
Any advice or opnions are appriciated!
Thanks


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## Sunny (23 Nov 2010)

All the banks will be a lot smaller with a lot less employees by the time this is finished. Personally I don't think AIB will survive in its current form. Doesn't automatically mean your husband will lose his job though. There isn't much you can do about it I am afraid. No job is secure anymore. Try not to stress about it.


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## terrontress (23 Nov 2010)

I think that AIB has to exist in one form or another. Bank of Ireland seems better placed to weather the storm but in order for there to be a Bank of Ireland there has to be an AIB otherwise Bank of Ireland would be deemed to have an illegal monopoly.


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## Shawady (23 Nov 2010)

AIB will be returned to it's "former glory".


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## Mpsox (23 Nov 2010)

There is always the possibilty that AIB may decide to outsource certain of it's functions, for example, BOI are outsourcing their IT support to IBM,  Ulster and NIB have outsourced their cheque processing to HP in recent years. It's also possible that if AIB are forced to sell off part of their loan book, then fewer resources would be required by AIB and that may lead to either a redundancy situation or staff affected transfering over to whoever buys the asset.


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## TarfHead (23 Nov 2010)

Mpsox said:


> ..for example, BOI are outsourcing their IT support to IBM..


 
The BOI / IBM deal is not a new event. BOI outsourced their IT support to HP about 5 years ago. When the contract was up for renewal, IBM were awarded it.

For AIB, this remains an option, though the cost savings to be realised are questionable.


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## terrontress (23 Nov 2010)

The big problem with AIB Group is that they have been forced to sell of the two jewels in their crown - the Polish operation and the GB Business Bank. They've also got to get rid of the share of the US bank they own, which is performing, and First Trust Bank in NI, which is probably in a similar shape to AIB ROI.

So you are going to be left with a bank whose sole area of operation is personal, commercial and corporate banking in the 26 counties.

Is that a viable business model, given the hardship to come?


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## The_Banker (23 Nov 2010)

terrontress said:


> I think that AIB has to exist in one form or another. Bank of Ireland seems better placed to weather the storm but in order for there to be a Bank of Ireland there has to be an AIB otherwise Bank of Ireland would be deemed to have an illegal monopoly.


 
Two weeks ago the perception was that BOI was much better placed than AIB. However, I think that sentiment has been turned on its head with the arrival of the IMF and the talk turned from "recapitalising" to "downsizing". 

Plus the revelation that there have been money leaving deposits at a very fast rate (€13 Billion AIB, €10 Billion BOI, €600 million ptsb) isnt helping the situation.

I think no one knows what kind of a banking system we will end up with at the end of the process but it will differ vastly from what is there now. 
I work for a financial organisation myself (low level - I swear!) and the fear around the place is there for all to see. We know job cuts are coming but where or how they will manifest themselves is not known. But at the same time I accept they have to happen.

The most telling point I think is the share price. BOI is down today from 39 cent to 26 cent which is a 33% drop. That is huge.

I would like to see any restructuring done quickly and properly so that when we come out the other end, at least we will know where we stand.


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## thedaras (23 Nov 2010)

I know someone who works in AIB, he told me last year they were asking staff to take as much unpaid leave as they wanted.
They are apparently very busy,but he also thinks there will be many jobs lost as per the thread above..


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## terrontress (23 Nov 2010)

The_Banker said:


> Two weeks ago the perception was that BOI was much better placed than AIB. However, I think that sentiment has been turned on its head with the arrival of the IMF and the talk turned from "recapitalising" to "downsizing".
> 
> Plus the revelation that there have been money leaving deposits at a very fast rate (€13 Billion AIB, €10 Billion BOI, €600 million ptsb) isnt helping the situation.
> 
> ...


 
We need something secure and solvent that people can get their pay in to and can go to the shops, secure in the knowledge that their pay will be there to get groceries.

I reckon they should have nationalised the personal arms of the Irish banks and let the rest go to seed.


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## ontour (23 Nov 2010)

24,000 staff now, by the time this is over, I reckon that they will have less than 10,000.  All the foreign arms will be for the chop and certain business units in Ireland will be closed or sold off.
Some units may be very busy now but this may be in preparation for the chop because they are linked to foreign arms or because they will be wound down or because they will be sold.
If you are in banking now and want to stay there, invest in becoming an area in risk and compliance as this will be one of the only growth areas.


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## terrontress (23 Nov 2010)

ontour said:


> 24,000 staff now, by the time this is over, I reckon that they will have less than 10,000. All the foreign arms will be for the chop and certain business units in Ireland will be closed or sold off.
> Some units may be very busy now but this may be in preparation for the chop because they are linked to foreign arms or because they will be wound down or because they will be sold.
> If you are in banking now and want to stay there, invest in becoming an area in risk and compliance as this will be one of the only growth areas.


 
That and debt collection!


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## Mpsox (23 Nov 2010)

terrontress said:


> That and debt collection!


 
Correct, the bulk of staff in most banks who used to work in mortgage and loan admin have been moved into debt collection activities


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## Deiseblue (23 Nov 2010)

AIB are a dead duck , their best bet is a forced merger with BOI , if your husband was offered a redundancy package he should bite their hand off !


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## RMCF (24 Nov 2010)

I wonder how this will affect anyone with AIB mortgages in the future? Are we likely to get hit with higher rates?


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## thedaras (24 Nov 2010)

Im not with AIB, but I have just fixed my mortgage, as I feel in a time of uncertainty its probably better to be certain.(somewhat!! )


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## Shawady (24 Nov 2010)

It was mentioned on the news last night that the government will own 99.9% of AIB.
Any explain why it does not want to take full control of 100%?


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## thedaras (24 Nov 2010)

Does that mean the staff will become Public servants?


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## zxcvbnm (24 Nov 2010)

thedaras said:


> Does that mean the staff will become Public servants?


 
No.

It will be a privately owned company where the owner in this instance is the state.


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## Shawady (24 Nov 2010)

But why own 99.9% and not 100%?


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## TarfHead (24 Nov 2010)

I don't know (always a useful opening disclaimer on AAM )

Could it be to do with AIB keeping it's listing, being technically still a public company ?

[broken link removed]



> The third bailout under the EU-IMF rescue will push the State ownership of the bank to 99.9 per cent where AIB will be left with a small listing on the stock market.


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## Maximus152 (26 Nov 2010)

Re: AIB will be returned to it's "former glory"..... 
Tell me that was a Joke!


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## Shawady (26 Nov 2010)

Maximus152 said:


> Re: AIB will be returned to it's "former glory".....


 
Thats what the Minister for Finance said so it must be true........


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## Time (31 Dec 2010)

AIB can close down in the morning. I would be delighted.


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## Deiseblue (31 Dec 2010)

Time said:


> AIB can close down in the morning. I would be delighted.



Your wish is granted.

AIB is closed tomorrow


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## Purple (31 Dec 2010)

terrontress said:


> in order for there to be a Bank of Ireland there has to be an AIB otherwise Bank of Ireland would be deemed to have an illegal monopoly.





Deiseblue said:


> AIB are a dead duck , their best bet is a forced merger with BOI



So who's right?


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## Leper (1 Jan 2011)

We are supposed to need AIB and BOI, a mantra of all those who believe the banks should be bailed out. 

Look hard and heavy and you can see that neither bank is needed.  The two banks should have been allowed to go under forever.

During the real recessions (or normal times to those who lived through them) of the 60s and 70s the banks were on total strike for months on end (one total strike lasted 6 months).  The country survived then and it can survive now.

Some of the foreign banks are hovering and can do the job here.  Our banks should have been let drown.


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## Time (1 Jan 2011)

Agreed.


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## oldtimer (1 Jan 2011)

Yes I remember those long bank strikes in the 60's and 70's. The country managed just fine - the post-ofices made a damn good job in their absence. When the strikes were settled there was a mention of the post-office becoming another bank but political pressure put an end to that idea.


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## Time (2 Jan 2011)

The government should have let the banks fail. They didn't and hence we are now in the mess now. You can't be upsetting your friends in high places can you now Zanu FF.


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