# The USA Market is seriously overvalued - Global Impact?



## ringledman (31 May 2010)

From what I can see and read, the S&P and Dow indexes are seriously overvalued on a long term technical and fundamental viewpoint.

Some commentators say 30% overvalued v the rest of the major markets.

Will a downturn in the S&P drag down the rest of the major indexes???

This bear market is only 10 years old. I worry that we will face another 5-7 years before the bear is shaken out and a new major bull market can start again (historically bears last 15-20 years or so).

On this basis I have very little exposure to the US. What are people's thoughts on the relationship between the US and the rest of the world markets? Will they all move in tandem down?

I see much more value in the UK and Europe on a P/E basis. Likewise Japan on a price to book basis (although Japanese P/E ratio still a bit high).

Can the devloping BRICs move up when the USA moves down?

Does anyone have current price to book ratios for the major markets?

Thoughts? Cheers.


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## ringledman (31 May 2010)

Is the S&P making a repeat of the NIKKEI of the 90s???

[broken link removed]

And well above its long term trend lines-

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I really can help but feel this 'secular' bear market will continue to run.


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## ALBERT* (4 Jun 2010)

The markets as a whole are overvalued using CAPE/Q ect but isn't American Blue Chips where the value is at? When Jeremy Grantham is bullish how can you go wrong? Bruce Greenwald likewise 
http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=339578


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## ringledman (13 Jun 2010)

ALBERT* said:


> The markets as a whole are overvalued using CAPE/Q ect but isn't American Blue Chips where the value is at? When Jeremy Grantham is bullish how can you go wrong? Bruce Greenwald likewise
> http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=339578


 
Totally agree with you Albert. 

Grantham is a a legend. I like his protege James Montier too. 

Value investing is the way. 

Huge value in global mega cap, high yielding, cash rich defensives. As well as the US firms mentioned I like Nestle, Vodafone, Astrazenecca, etc. Firms that won't go bust whatever the economy!

Grantham produced his 'trades for the decade' in January and mega cap defensives were top of the pile with a return of 6-7% or so. Decent return in a low return future environment. The place to be invested the next decade I feel.


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## mainasia (13 Jun 2010)

Invest in tracking funds for India and Vietnam.


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## ringledman (13 Jun 2010)

mainasia said:


> Invest in tracking funds for India and Vietnam.


 
I'm in the Vietnam ETF. Who does an Indian one?


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## Thinfield (19 Sep 2010)

Can you provide details of the Vietnam ETF please?


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