# Irish Times data dashboard is interesting



## Brendan Burgess (31 Mar 2020)

Coronavirus - The Irish Times
					






					www.irishtimes.com
				




I was wondering where they got the figure of it being down from 30% to 15%.


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## DeeKie (1 Apr 2020)

Yes. But our preparation was / is pretty grim.


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## seamus m (2 Apr 2020)

If they have decided from just yesterday to only now start contact tracing without having tested  it would also imply of worsening conditions that they are not saying


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## Eireog007 (2 Apr 2020)

seamus m said:


> If they have decided from just yesterday to only now start contact tracing without having tested  it would also imply of worsening conditions that they are not saying



Or it could just as easily imply that the number of infections/average number of contacts per case is dropping which is allowing the staff to expand their criteria. Really just depends on your outlook on the situation I guess.


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## EmmDee (2 Apr 2020)

elacsaplau said:


> As said on another thread, the numbers are strange and there are many on-point comments in this thread. So just to add,
> 
> 1. It's hard to comment on the shape of the curve with incomplete data
> 
> ...



Yes - but the concern (and what is being seen in US and UK) is an exponential growth - so if (to use your sample numbers), new cases remained static at 250 absolute, it would be seen as a success. The danger is that it doubles every 2 or 3 days (which is what happened in Italy and now happening in US). That doubling effect is what overwhelms A&E - steady numbers can at least be predicted and managed


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## elacsaplau (2 Apr 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> They are arguing, with huge caveats, that the rate of growth is down from 30% a few weeks ago to 15% today.



EmmDee,

My example was simply in relation to Brendan's comment - which is a fair representation of the messaging.


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## EmmDee (2 Apr 2020)

elacsaplau said:


> EmmDee,
> 
> My example was simply in relation to Brendan's comment - which is a fair representation of the messaging.



I understand. And my comment was to highlight why a reducing percentage even with a static absolute number is seen as a positive thing in the messaging


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## Leo (2 Apr 2020)

Eireog007 said:


> Or it could just as easily imply that the number of infections/average number of contacts per case is dropping which is allowing the staff to expand their criteria. Really just depends on your outlook on the situation I guess.



Yep, mid-March they were looking at an average of 20 contacts per case, that dropped to 3 by the end of the month.


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## seamus m (2 Apr 2020)

What constitutes a contact .I presume it's someone they have spent 15 minutes with and given they were expecting to be testing up over 5000 cases per day by now and are only doing less than a third of that they are prob overstaffed at minute


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## Brendan Burgess (2 Apr 2020)

402  new cases.


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Apr 2020)

Folks

If there is a thread on stats, and someone starts talking about PPE, please do not respond. Report it as being off topic.

You are wasting your time and the moderators' time by responding. Your response is going to be deleted. 

It is very difficult to have serious discussions if people insist on taking every thread off topic. 

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (4 Apr 2020)

331 new cases today.


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## odyssey06 (5 Apr 2020)

Breakdown of Irish figures by demographic, ICU and fatalities.
Noticeable spike in admittance to ICU for over 45s, and noticeable spike in fatalities for over 55s.
I think it would be helpful if they provided a more granular breakdown for 65+ e.g. versus 80+














						Harris announces new supports for nursing homes after 40 clusters identified across the country
					

Figures correct as of midnight on Wednesday were released this morning by the Health Protection Surveillance Centre.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## Brendan Burgess (5 Apr 2020)

Hi Odyssey

That is very interesting.   

In my own age group of 55-64, there were 6 deaths out of 537 cases.  

So including underlying conditions, the death rate is about 1%. 

Presumably there is a lag between confirming a case and dying.   

So the 1% might well rise. 

We won't know the true death rate for some months until those affected have either recovered or died. 

Brendan


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