# Economy facing biggest recession in our history



## Purple (28 May 2020)

According to the ESRI we are looking at a likely decline in GDP this year of 12.4% with a best case scenario decline of 8.6% and a worst case decline of 17.1%.
The human impact of this will be staggering. I hope our leaders are listening to the ESRI and not just to medics who have a very narrow focus. 

None of the people on NPHET have ever had to worry about earning a living with most of them being paid by the State. They are insulated from the economic realities of their advice and will never have to worry about being paid. It is not their job to worry about such things but it is the job of our politicians.


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## Sunny (28 May 2020)

I still dont think this is getting proper attention because there are people out there thinking you want to murder people if you want to lift restrictions. 

It is now the end of May. As far as I know, we were only ever two weeks behind Italy when this virus hit or at least that is what we were told. Now we are going to be nearly three months behind them and other countries on lifting restrictions. I dont know of any country that has lifted restrictions that has had a second wave that swamped their health service. And now they are talking about easing visiting restrictions at nursing homes. Like if they can to do with the most vulnerable section in society, what is the point of the rest of us being restricted and watching the economy collapse....


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## faketales (1 Jun 2020)

Purple said:


> According to the ESRI we are looking at a likely decline in GDP this year of 12.4% with a best case scenario decline of 8.6% and a worst case decline of 17.1%.
> The human impact of this will be staggering. I hope our leaders are listening to the ESRI and not just to medics who have a very narrow focus.
> 
> None of the people on NPHET have ever had to worry about earning a living with most of them being paid by the State. They are insulated from the economic realities of their advice and will never have to worry about being paid. It is not their job to worry about such things but it is the job of our politicians.



The people on NPHET weren't given the job at birth. You have no idea what their background is. I'd imagine they have family and friends in all sorts of lines of work. 

But your right it's not their job it's the politians and as difficult as it may be it may soon be time for politians to make difficult decisions balancing health and the economy.


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## Purple (3 Jun 2020)

faketales said:


> The people on NPHET weren't given the job at birth. You have no idea what their background is.


They are;

Dr Tony Holohan (Chair) Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health (DOH
Prof Colm Bergin – Consultant Infectious Diseases, St. James’s Hospital and Professor of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin
Mr Paul Bolger – Director, Resources Division, DOH
Dr Eibhlin Connolly – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Ms Tracey Conroy  – A/Sec, Acute Hospitals Division, DOH
Dr John Cuddihy  – Interim Director, Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC)
Dr Cillian de Gascun -  Director, National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL), UCD, Consultant Virologist
Mr Colm Desmond – A/Sec, Corporate Legislation, Mental Health, Drugs Policy and Food Safety Division, DOH
Dr Lorraine Doherty – National Clinical Director for Health Protection, HPSC, HSE
Dr Mary Favier – President Irish College of General Practitioners (ICGP)
Dr Ronan Glynn  – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Mr Fergal Goodman – A/Sec, Primary Care Division, DOH
Dr Colm Henry – Chief Clinical Officer, HSE
Dr Kevin Kelleher – Asst. National Director, Public Health, HSE
Ms Marita Kinsella – Director, National Patient Safety Office, DOH
Mr David Leach – Deputy National Director of Communications, HSE
Dr Kathleen Mac Lellan – A/Sec, Social Care Division, DOH
Dr Jeanette Mc Callion – Medical Assessor, Health Products Regulatory Authority (HPRA)
Mr Tom McGuinness – Asst. National Director, Office of Emergency Planning, HSE
Dr Siobhán Ní Bhrian – Lead for Integrated Care, HSE Prof Philip Nolan President, National University of Ireland, Maynooth
Ms Kate O’Flaherty  – Head of Health and Wellbeing, DOH
Dr Darina O’Flanagan – Special Advisor to the NPHET, DOH
Dr Siobhan O’Sullivan – Chief Bioethics Officer, DOH
Dr Michael Power – National Clinical Lead, Critical Care Programme, HSE Consultant in Anaesthetics / Intensive Care Medicine, Beaumont Hospital
Mr Phelim Quinn – Chief Executive Officer, HIQA
Dr Máirín Ryan – Deputy Chief Executive and Director of Health Technology Assessment, HIQA
Dr Alan Smith – Deputy Chief Medical Officer, DOH
Dr Breda Smyth  – Director of Public Health Medicine, HSE
Mr David Walsh – National Director, Community Operations, HSE
Ms Deirdre Watters – Head of Communications, DOH
Mr Liam Woods – National Director, Acute Operations, HSE 
They are mostly Civil/Public Servants who cannot lose their job. Then there'a a few Trinity and UCD medical school graduates who will never be out of work. I'm not saying their aren't competent people or good people but, given their backgrounds and wealth, it would be very hard for them to empathise with a cleaner or waiter or unskilled person who struggles to stay in employment and housing at the best of times. It would be hard for them to empathise with an average income family with a big mortgage that they struggle to pay at the best of times. 

I completely agree that it's not their job to worry about these things; they are there with a very narrow brief. It is the job of our elected leaders to take their advise and make decisions having put that advice into the context of the broader national picture.


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## RichInSpirit (5 Jun 2020)

This 30 billion deficit that is mentioned is a bit scary all right. I'm not sure if borrowing it is as simple as the Government of the moment seems to think.


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## Robert Moore (5 Jun 2020)

RichInSpirit said:


> This 30 billion deficit that is mentioned is a bit scary all right. I'm not sure if borrowing it is as simple as the Government of the moment seems to think.



Agree. Whenever I hear this referred to, something of the nature of "Oh the conditions are right for our borrowing money from the markets" I think of another glib comment from some years ago - SOFT LANDING


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## odyssey06 (5 Jun 2020)

Purple said:


> According to the ESRI we are looking at a likely decline in GDP this year of 12.4% with a best case scenario decline of 8.6% and a worst case decline of 17.1%. The human impact of this will be staggering. I hope our leaders are listening to the ESRI and not just to medics who have a very narrow focus.



I think it's hard for people to visualise what that means... the numbers look scary but if you want to grab headlines it needs to be linked to unemployment, pay cuts, halting of infrastructure projects, car sales, house price drops, cancellation of operations etc. 
Basically spell out the potential human impact.
Otherwise (being tabloid about it) it will be trumped by a picture of a sick granny in a hospital bed.


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## Drakon (5 Jun 2020)

Hitting the reset button rather than trying to go back to the old normal makes more sense to me and it would cost less. 
Paying a fortune for a house in, say, Rathoath, driving into Dublin 2 hours return, working in an office 8 hours, yadda yadda yadda.

Instead, buy a house you can easily afford anywhere you want, buy a cheaper car or none at all, telecommute/WFH, etc etc. 
Saves a lot of money. 
Employer has offices just a fraction of the size. One small conference room and some hot desks, etc.
Borrowing to return to the old normal instead of embracing the possibilities of the new normal at a lesser cost would be madness.


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## Purple (5 Jun 2020)

Drakon said:


> Hitting the reset button rather than trying to go back to the old normal makes more sense to me and it would cost less.
> Paying a fortune for a house in, say, Rathoath, driving into Dublin 2 hours return, working in an office 8 hours, yadda yadda yadda.
> 
> Instead, buy a house you can easily afford anywhere you want, buy a cheaper car or none at all, telecommute/WFH, etc etc.
> ...


That's fine if your are in FinTech, IT, finance etc but most people aren't. They work in shops and restaurants and warehouses and factories and places that they have to be to do their job. The assumption that everyone goes to "the office" to work is wrong.


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## Drakon (5 Jun 2020)

Yeah, I was going to clarify that. But yeah, it does apply to those in offices. 
However, it’ll affect cafes, bars and restaurants indirectly. 
With fewer and smaller offices, there will be fewer cafes, bars and restaurants in business parks, IFSC, Bangor St, etc. 
There will be more of these where people live instead, because that’s where the people are working. Staff could have shorter commutes, as they’ll wait tables and serve bars close to where they live, because there are cafes, etc, there. 
A lot of the non-office employment in Ireland follows and supports the office employment.


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