# equities stink



## pessimist (20 Sep 2002)

[broken link removed]

Comments?


----------



## Sea Pigeon (20 Sep 2002)

*I told you so*

Excellent piece!  All been said before on AAM.  The stockmarket is a second hand market.  Growth depends totally on price.  If the starting price is too high, no growth.  Forget economic arguments about GNP etc. etc.

Also, brilliant demolition of the <!--EZCODE ITALIC START-->_ Boss'_<!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> huge reliance on the experience of the last 100 years.


----------



## Brendan Burgess (26 Sep 2002)

I wonder what the conclusion would be if you did the same analysis of investing in property??


----------



## tyoung (28 Sep 2002)

*property valuations*

I think the property market is very expensive but there's no sign of it ending yet. People don't like stocks, bonds don't make sense and cash hardly yields anything.  That leaves only property.
  Interest rates are the key. Anybody predicting the collapse of the Irish property market must see interest rates rising.  I think the ECB cuts rates by 1/2% by the end of the year to prevent deflation in Germany with maybe more next year. This should more than offset any fall in demand caused by the slowing economy.
 Longterm I would be cautious particularly on the rental apartment market.
  To use an imperfect analogy, it's about 1998 in stock market terms.
  Party on dudes!


----------



## tyoung (5 Dec 2002)

*Ecb cuts*

1/2 point cut as predicted. More to follow next year. This should continue to support the housing market into 03.


----------

