# Move savings out of AIB



## Scouser (29 Sep 2010)

Hi there,

I have savings in AIB and want to move them out, I also have savings with Rabo - can someone recommend a bank? Maybe Investec or Nationwide UK, any thought on these? My main concerns are the safety of my deposits if Ireland defaulted.

Thanks,

X.


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## venice (29 Sep 2010)

I would look an An Post, great interest rate..

http://www.anpost.ie/AnPost/MainContent/Personal+Customers/Money+Matters/Savings+and+Investments/


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## Towger (29 Sep 2010)

If AIB goes, so will savings in An Post. Spread your money around the non Irish banks.


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## Lightning (29 Sep 2010)

Towger - Agreed, if you are concerned about an irish default, do not put your money in the NTMA/An Post product. 

xabi - Good move to get your money out of AIB. AIB do not offer customers a good return for their money. Do you want instant access or a term deposit? If you want instant access, go with Nationwide UK who will pay you 3.15%.


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## penguin (29 Sep 2010)

Towger said:


> If AIB goes, so will savings in An Post. Spread your money around the non Irish banks.


 
i read a post here a few days ago that said there was a 32% chance of the Gov defaulting on the loans (cant find the thread now) , would this be correct?
If it is right then there is a 68% of your Irish Bank being ok in the long run ?

How do you fancy them odds ?


"If you want instant access, go with Nationwide UK who will pay you 3.15%."

As a bank working in Ireland would they NOT have their funds used ala the Irish banks should we default and is this a case of there is a better chance of getting your money back from the UK Gov than ours?
Or am I getting it wrong ?


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## Lightning (29 Sep 2010)

penguin said:


> "If you want instant access, go with Nationwide UK who will pay you 3.15%."
> 
> As a bank working in Ireland would they NOT have their funds used ala the Irish banks should we default and is this a case of there is a better chance of getting your money back from the UK Gov than ours?
> Or am I getting it wrong ?



Exactly, Nationwide UK savings are guaranteed up to 50,000 GBP by the UK government.


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## Lightning (29 Sep 2010)

penguin said:


> i read a post here a few days ago that said there was a 32% chance of the Gov defaulting on the loans (cant find the thread now) , would this be correct?
> If it is right then there is a 68% of your Irish Bank being ok in the long run ?
> 
> How do you fancy them odds ?



Odds of a default are now higher now. 

CDS imply a 37% chance of default inside 5 years, worth considering when you are thinking about your choice of bank to keep your savings in.


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## Godfather (29 Sep 2010)

CiaranT said:


> Odds of a default are now higher now.
> 
> CDS imply a 37% chance of default inside 5 years, worth considering when you are thinking about your choice of bank to keep your savings in.



Do they say anything about a chance of default inside 1 or 2 years???  5 years is a long timeframe...


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## Lightning (29 Sep 2010)

I can't find the implied default credit default swap rates for 1 year and 2 year NTMA Irish government bonds online. 

Suffice the say the risk inside 1-2 years is much lower. A lot of people expect the IMF/EC bail out fund to be enacted as a first step. The market CDS rates now imply a higher but not certain expectation of a default in the medium to long term. The short term default risk is on a much lower CDS probability expectation thanks to the bail out fund.  

If I had to guess, I would say an Irish default will happen but not for at least 3 years, after the expiration of the ECB/IMF bail out.  

Most fund managers, according to a recent Bloomberg survey, expect a Greek default by 2014. Perhaps a regional debt re-structuring will take place then. 

All pure speculation. It could happen sooner. It may never happen.


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## Godfather (29 Sep 2010)

Thank you CiaranT, what a very strange situation...


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## Scouser (30 Sep 2010)

If Ireland had to pull out of the Euro, would cash in Rabo, Natiowide UK, Investec, etc be safe?


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## penguin (30 Sep 2010)

xabi said:


> If Ireland had to pull out of the Euro, would cash in Rabo, Natiowide UK, Investec, etc be safe?


 
As far As I can tell ,NO.

Look at post #6 in this thread , the question and answer .

Its just a matter of WHO you think you have a better chance of getting your money BACK from SHOULD  a default happen.


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