# Newspaper Advice! – Don’t take any notice!



## Steve D (17 Feb 2008)

According to this article in July last year the “smart ballsy guys” are buying up property

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/the-smart-ballsy-guys-are-buying-up-property-right-now-1047118.html


With hindsight, they don’t seem to be very "smart" now because property prices have reduced by about 15 to 20% since then.


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## ubiquitous (17 Feb 2008)

Is there anyone who is daft enough to class that sort of sweeping rant as "advice" ?


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## jhegarty (17 Feb 2008)

Where in the article is he talking about short term investment.... come back after 5 years and say something way way off , not 8 months...


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## amgd28 (17 Feb 2008)

I often have to laugh at the frequent use of "canny investors" investing in far-flung regions.
It typically goes like "the canny investors are already snapping up aailable property in Ulan Bator", as the Mongoloian economy gets set to explode"
..........yet they rarely feature any "canny investor" that has actually realised a gain through their transactions. Put simply,  the inference must be as the property sections are a conduit for significant advetising revenue for a given paper, a certain editorial bias tends to creep in......with no thought for the gullible chumps out there that believe the guff


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## mercman (18 Feb 2008)

Listen -- do you all believe everything you read in the papers ? It is in the best interests of newspapers to talk up the property market. Take a look at the papers - who is paying for the advertisements - and who is benefiting - the newspapers. Since 2005, we have all seen residential property explode in price so much so that the consequences are now happening. The figures are there (the papers print them in small slots). A complete oversupply, but EAs would allow sellers advertise lower prices. So for the single biggest investment a house buyer is ever going to make, they must enter into a horse trading arena. Newspaper advice on property - FORGET IT. Better of going to the Zoo  and asking the monkeys. At least you will have a laugh.


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## MrMan (18 Feb 2008)

> The figures are there (the papers print them in small slots).


Have you not been reading the headlines?



> With hindsight, they don’t seem to be very "smart" now because property prices have reduced by about 15 to 20% since then.



Not that you are not smart or anything, but I'd be wary of asserting that property prices have dropped 15-20% when its not the case.


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## xman (18 Feb 2008)

Yeah, that was one of the worst and most embarrassing pieces of guff I came across in the Irish meeja last year.

I wonder if Brendan bought a fairly expensive house and was worrying about contracting teh negative equity?


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## xman (18 Feb 2008)

MrMan said:


> I'd be wary of asserting that property prices have dropped 15-20% when its not the case.


 
So you think they've dropped by even more that that do you? You're a negative nelly aren't you


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## MrMan (18 Feb 2008)

no problem I'm surprised more people don't realise that most new developments are now doing buy one get one free now as an incentive, it really is a buyers market.


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## Thomas22 (18 Feb 2008)

MrMan said:


> Have you not been reading the headlines?
> 
> 
> 
> Not that you are not smart or anything, but I'd be wary of asserting that property prices have dropped 15-20% when its not the case.



The market as a whole has dropped by more than 15% IMO. Just ask anyone who is trying to sell


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## MrMan (19 Feb 2008)

> The market as a whole has dropped by more than 15% IMO. Just ask anyone who is trying to sell



I take it your living in Dublin, the 'market as a whole' is much further reaching than the outskirts of the capital. Limerick for example is on average around a 5/6% drop.


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## TTV (19 Feb 2008)

Has the ban on discussing the (downward) trend of property prices finally been lifted from this site? Never thought that would happen, suppose the truth had to be acknowledged finally


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## Thomas22 (19 Feb 2008)

TTV said:


> Has the ban on discussing the (downward) trend of property prices finally been lifted from this site? Never thought that would happen, suppose the truth had to be acknowledged finally



I think but am not sure that we can talk about past house prices just not on future house prices.

Maybe a mod can confirm this? Is it just the future that is off limits or are the past and future off limits?


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## ClubMan (20 Feb 2008)

As far as I know discussion of historical property prices is OK.


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## xman (20 Feb 2008)

MrMan said:


> I'd be wary of asserting that property prices have dropped 15-20% when its not the case.


 
You better ring Eugene Sheehy (Chief Executive of AIB) and tell him your insight MrMan.

Because he just made an awful eejit out of himself in AIB's annual results presentation when he said that house prices have dropped by 15%.

He also said that the correction has been going on for 6 quarters, has further to go and he sees no recovery until at least 2009.

But what would he know, eh?


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## MrMan (20 Feb 2008)

> You better ring Eugene Sheehy (Chief Executive of AIB) and tell him your insight MrMan.
> 
> Because he just made an awful eejit out of himself in AIB's annual results presentation when he said that house prices have dropped by 15%.
> 
> ...



I don't suppose there are other 'experts' out there that can be rolled out to support differing arguments. Lets just say that I'm confident in my ability on how to use a calculator and I have actually been dealing with real life issues, I have dropped prices on some and not all houses, things that have been selling have not been in double percentage figures below asking (in most cases). But what would I know, eh?


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## xman (20 Feb 2008)

MrMan said:


> I don't suppose there are other 'experts' out there that can be rolled out to support differing arguments.


 
Are you comparing your own 'expertise' favourably to that of the Chief Executive of AIB there MrMan?? Maybe you should send them your CV..



MrMan said:


> Lets just say that I'm confident in my ability on how to use a calculator and I have actually been dealing with real life issues


 
So you're still denying that house prices have dropped by 15% in Ireland MrMan?

Not in Limerick, Ireland. You're the one who brought Limerick into this thread. House prices did not appreciate as much in Limerick, so they will probably not fall as far. Unless Dell goes, in which case all bets are off.

Anyway, I'll take Eugene Sheehy's word over yours, if you don't mind.


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## xman (20 Feb 2008)

double post


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## MrMan (20 Feb 2008)

> Are you comparing your own 'expertise' favourably to that of the Chief Executive of AIB there MrMan?? Maybe you should send them your CV..



I would suggest that you reread that line: 'I don't suppose there are other 'experts' out there that can be rolled out to support differing arguments' which contends that rather than me wanting Eugenes job, I was merely pointing out that experts have differing opinions on the matter.



> So you're still denying that house prices have dropped by 15% in Ireland MrMan?



Where did I say that? Did I not say that is was misleading to suggest that house prices in Ireland have dropped 15-20% and further commented that the Irish market is not exclusive to Dublin therefore to get accurate readings one might have to broaden their horizons.




> Not in Limerick, Ireland. You're the one who brought Limerick into this thread. House prices did not appreciate as much in Limerick, so they will probably not fall as far. Unless Dell goes, in which case all bets are off.


Limerick was brought in to highlight how such information that is openly portrayed as the Irish market is misleading, there are other areas that are similiar to Limerick I'm sure, but I can only reasonably comment on the market that I am involved with on a professional basis. 



> Anyway, I'll take Eugene Sheehy's word over yours, if you don't mind



Each to their own.


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## xman (20 Feb 2008)

MrMan said:


> Where did I say that? Did I not say that is was misleading to suggest that house prices in Ireland have dropped 15-20%


 
I'll remind you of what you said (in a very snide and high handed manner I might add)

"I'd be wary of asserting that property prices have dropped 15-20% when its not the case."

So what did you actually mean by this MrMan? Please do tell.



MrMan said:


> Limerick was brought in to highlight how such information that is openly portrayed as the Irish market is misleading,


 
Referencing Limerick is totally misleading. It is miles cheaper than all the other main cities. Of course prices there have fallen by less. They never rose by as much either.


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## MrMan (20 Feb 2008)

> So what did you actually mean by this MrMan? Please do tell.



A statement was made by the OP as follows 





> With hindsight, they don’t seem to be very "smart" now because property prices have reduced by about 15 to 20% since then.



I followed this with 





> I'd be wary of asserting that property prices have dropped 15-20% when its not the case.


The assertion in my view was that the OP was making a statement that property prices (in general) were down 15/20%. I don't believe this to be so. I believe that is has happened in some areas such as the recent case in Dublin but that hardly represents the market.

Your comment  





> So you're still denying that house prices have dropped by 15% in Ireland MrMan?


 was an obvious twist on words. I was making my observations based on the fact that house prices across the board have not come down to this level, I didn't mean that no properties have dropped and I thought that was obvious.



> Referencing Limerick is totally misleading. It is miles cheaper than all the other main cities. Of course prices there have fallen by less. They never rose by as much either.


How is referncing Limerick misleading? It was to point out that the constant references to the property market seem to gloss over the fact that there are areas not in the same boat. It makes no sense to say that becaue prices are cheaper than the other main cities  then the fall in price wouldn't be as bad. We are talking percentages here so the actual difference in value between cities shouldn't come into it.


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## ntab2 (21 Feb 2008)

MrMan said:


> I don't suppose there are other 'experts' out there that can be rolled out to support differing arguments. Lets just say that I'm confident in my ability on how to use a calculator and I have actually been dealing with real life issues, I have dropped prices on some and not all houses, things that have been selling have not been in double percentage figures below asking (in most cases). But what would I know, eh?



But here you're confusing the drop in selling prices with notion of selling below asking prices. You don't need to sell 20% below asking prices to have a 20% drop in value from the peak. Asking prices have also come down.


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## xman (21 Feb 2008)

MrMan said:


> How is referencing Limerick misleading?


 
There are different measures of pricing. The nominal price is one, affordability is another. For example there would be nothing unsustainable about average house prices of €3 million euro, if average wages were €1 million euro.

Limerick is misleading because it is the most affordable housing market, as well the cheapest in nominal terms. Using the data from page 36 of this recent house price affordability survey http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf Dublin house prices would have to fall by 35% just to become as affordable as Limerick (3.5 times household income).

That is why Limerick prices have declined by less than the other cities.



> We are talking percentages here so the actual difference in value between cities shouldn't come into it.


 
True, if affordability was the same in all the cities. But it's not. The cities with the higher (un)affordability have seen larger price declines. They also represent a much bigger proportion of the market and hence contribute more heavily to the overall picture.


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## Bronte (21 Feb 2008)

As we're allowed to discuss past & current prices here's my twopence worth in relation to another city.  I don't know how far Dublin prices have dropped, Limerick has always been fairly steady, as they never hit the heady highs of other cities but I do know that Galway has dropped close to 20% in the last 12 months.


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## MrMan (21 Feb 2008)

> But here you're confusing the drop in selling prices with notion of selling below asking prices. You don't need to sell 20% below asking prices to have a 20% drop in value from the peak. Asking prices have also come down.



It might sound that way but I assure you I am not confusing the issue here. We dealing with house prices on a daily basis, we monitor values in different areas and also evaluate which areas are selling best. I am aware of what the prices are and what areas have dropped and therefore their %drop. I also am aware of what the selling price translates to against the original asking price and I stand by my comments.



> Limerick is misleading because it is the most affordable housing market, as well the cheapest in nominal terms. Using the data from page 36 of this recent house price affordability survey http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf Dublin house prices would have to fall by 35% just to become as affordable as Limerick (3.5 times household income).



I realise the affordability factor and also factor in the higher wages that can be obtained through working in the capital versus Limerick (on many cases). The reason I am saying referencing Limerick is not misleading is that the market is constantly refered to in general terms, for instance people in Limerick listen to the radio and hear market prices drop 15% and wonder why they can't get a cheaper house. I do believe that the generalisations aren't helpful.


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## ubiquitous (21 Feb 2008)

MrMan said:


> for instance people in Limerick listen to the radio and hear market prices drop 15% and wonder why they can't get a cheaper house. I do believe that the generalisations aren't helpful.



Surely it is a good thing if consumers are motivated to seek lower prices for their purchases? There would be very little sympathy for bakers if they moaned that consumers expect to be able to buy a loaf for 50 cent.


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## MrMan (21 Feb 2008)

> Surely it is a good thing if consumers are motivated to seek lower prices for their purchases? There would be very little sympathy for bakers if they moaned that consumers expect to be able to buy a loaf for 50 cent.



Are consumers not always motivated to seek lower prices? The issue is that they inevitably expect that they can get a much cheaper price and are then left wondering 'how did that happen' when the vendor rejects their offer and another buyer comes in €10k over their heads. My point is that the misconception on price changes only slows down the process it doesn't alter it.


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## ubiquitous (21 Feb 2008)

If the net effect is to deter bidders from over-extending themselves by bidding the price of a property to an unsustainable level, then I would welcome it.


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## MrMan (21 Feb 2008)

So you feel that if people are being mislead its ok because it's for their own good?


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## ubiquitous (21 Feb 2008)

If they end up getting a lower price for the property (or avoid overpaying on the property by having the confidence to walk away and say "its too expensive"), yes.


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## MrMan (21 Feb 2008)

Fair enough, but if I was to say its ok to mislead people in order to get a higher price I take it you would disagree. Its generally better for all parties to be aware of the facts when entering negotiations.


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## ubiquitous (21 Feb 2008)

MrMan said:


> Fair enough, but if I was to say its ok to mislead people in order to get a higher price I take it you would disagree. Its generally better for all parties to be aware of the facts when entering negotiations.



But if people are led to expect to achieve a lower price, and they achieve this price, then by definition they are not being misled. If they don't achieve this price and they walk away and get that price on a similar property elsewhere, all the better for them.


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## MrMan (21 Feb 2008)

No they are being led to believe that the prices are dropping by x% when in fact the reality is probably half that. I have dealt with people who have been quite angry when I've told them that their offer is way off the mark and would not be realistic for the property. They tell me that they have 'other houses that we are looking at for that price' and inevitably within a few weeks they either up thier offer or somebody else surpasses them. What I have noticed since we were back in January is that less people are talking about 'the falling market' when they are viewing property so things are stabilising a bit. It would be great for buyers if prices plummeted, but when its not the case its not healthy to sit there and wait for it.


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## xman (21 Feb 2008)

MrMan said:


> for instance people in Limerick listen to the radio and hear market prices drop 15% and wonder why they can't get a cheaper house. I do believe that the generalisations aren't helpful.


 
Deary me. You just explain to them that because they were way cheaper to begin with, so they haven't come down by as much.

It ain't hard.

So back on topic. Property prices _in Ireland_ are down 15-20% since Brendan O'Connor wrote his incredibly insightful smart ballsy article. Discuss.


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## MrMan (21 Feb 2008)

> Deary me. You just explain to them that because they were way cheaper to begin with, so they haven't come down by as much.



Well if the explanation is as hard to get across as it is to you then I don't fancy the hardship.



> So back on topic. Property prices in Ireland are down 15-20% since Brendan O'Connor wrote his incredibly insightful smart ballsy article. Discuss.



I admire your commitment


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## Brendan Burgess (21 Feb 2008)

This is just more of the nonsense which forced us to ban speculation about house prices. 

All heat and no light. And abuse of other posters whose opinions you don't agree with. 

Brendan


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