# Good article: "Ireland is on the cusp of yet another Covid-related disaster"



## Brendan Burgess (28 Oct 2021)

Ireland is on the cusp of yet another Covid-related disaster
					

Health services and schools will bear the brunt as we fail to take action on latest wave




					www.irishtimes.com
				




_One feels like shouting out: surely, this time, we know what is likely to happen when alcohol-fuelled socialising is encouraged, without having agreed and put in place adequate measures to minimise the risks?

This shout-out is directed in particular at the parents of school-going children, and is an appeal on behalf of Ireland’s health workers. Because those who work in our health services and schools, and those who most need these to function through to next spring, will bear most of the brunt of Ireland’s swelling Covid wave._


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## Grizzly (28 Oct 2021)

_"So if we know that full vaccination, masks and social distancing – taken as a package – reduce the risk, what can we do to ensure everyone in high-risk settings complies? We must legislate for these measures to be mandatory. We must enable staff and other customers to put pressure on customers who do not comply"_

I was in SuperValu Blackrock this morning. Two staff walking about with their masks under their nose.......and not a word said to them by their manager.  If they don't insist on staff wearing their masks properly then  what hope is there that they will ask their customers to comply.


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## Ceist Beag (28 Oct 2021)

1 year ago, when we were all unvaccinated and before the Delta variant, there were approximately 30 in ICU. We were in lockdown for November and things still went pear shaped later in the Winter.
Today we have over 100 in ICU (worryingly approximately 40% of these are fully vaccinated) and yet we have a much more relaxed environment this year compared to last. Public transport is at full capacity, lots of people are back working in their workplace, schools no longer need to inform close contacts, nightclubs are open with full capacity and pubs are operating close to normal service. On top of that an awful lot of people appear to be acting as if Covid is no longer around. I'm really concerned that the start of 2022 will be as bad, if not worse, than the start of 2021 and we will start to question how we are ever going to move forward. I hope I am wrong, but the signs are very worrying.


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## Purple (28 Oct 2021)

@Ceist Beag , at some stage life has to go on. We can't remain locked down forever.


The simple answer is to ensure everyone is vaccinated. Good stat's [broken link removed]. Our rolling average is reasonably stable. 
Nightclubs opening and indoor concert evens where people are pressed against each other seem like an unnecessary risk but other than that society has to function. If the figures jump up then we should close them again and see what happens. 

A little over a quarter of cases are in the over 55's but they account for almost 2/3 of hospitalisations. People need to be aware of what the younger people in their households are up to. If they are going out partying then the vulnerable members of that household should wear a mask around them. That, to me, is a more balanced and reasonable solution than closing down their lives again.


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## demoivre (28 Oct 2021)

.._.such as rapid antigen testing, which has been recommended as a screening tool before engaging in high-risk indoor events.

Such tests are only good at detecting cases in those with symptoms, and those with Covid symptoms should get a PCR test. In those without symptoms, rapid antigen tests fail to detect half the cases detected by PCR._

Beggars belief that this guy , like so many others, is comparing apples to oranges and doesn't know that  PCR tests and Antigen tests do different things.

Antigen tests detect *infectious people* by detecting material from the surface proteins of the virus and are very accurate when a person is infectious.

A PCR test detects genetic material of the virus, including very small amounts, so a person can be PCR positive but non infectious .

_We must enforce sanctions on venues that do not demand to see a Covid certificate and do not enforce compliance with preventive measures, enforcement that if necessary could involve ejecting customers_

Covid certs aren't worth the paper they're written on.

_








						Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States - European Journal of Epidemiology
					






					link.springer.com
				



_
Cillian de Gascun in a lengthy Twitter thread, stated recently, that fully vaccinated individuals have viral loads similar to unvaccinated and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings including to fully vaccinated contacts. ( Cant recall the research he quoted from )


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## demoivre (28 Oct 2021)

Purple said:


> at some stage life has to go on. We can't remain locked down forever.



I don't believe for one second that *overall public health *would be in a worse position now if sick people ( symptomatic) had stayed at home until they were well, the vulnerable had been protected and the rest of us had gotten on with it.

We also need to have an adult conversation with the 60% + of the population who can't ditch the couch, the remote , the Pringles and the Cadburys.

If we spent a fraction of the €35bn, borrowed to deal with a virus that is harmless to most, successfully getting them to do just that the outcomes from Covid, long Covid and a host of other illnesses would be drastically improved.


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## Purple (28 Oct 2021)

demoivre said:


> I don't believe for one second that *overall public health *would be in a worse position now if sick people ( symptomatic) had stayed at home until they were well, the vulnerable had been protected and the rest of us had gotten on with it.


Possibly, as long as the sick knew they were sick and behaved as they should have behaved.


demoivre said:


> We also need to have an adult conversation with the 60% + of the population who can't ditch the couch, the remote , the Pringles and the Cadburys.


I agree 100%.  In the majority of cases 'Underlying Condition' means fat. This, for the most part, is a disease of the fat. I'd love to see the stat's on obesity and mortality here as they relate to Covid.


demoivre said:


> If we spent a fraction of the €35bn, borrowed to deal with a virus that is harmless to most, successfully getting them to do just that the outcomes from Covid, long Covid and a host of other illnesses would be drastically improved.


I agree.


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## seamus m (31 Oct 2021)

A blind man would see that the vaccination is only partly working and not testing or treating vaccinated as close contacts is helping fuel increases ..


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## Paul O Mahoney (31 Oct 2021)

seamus m said:


> A blind man would see that the vaccination is only partly working and not testing or treating vaccinated as close contacts is helping fuel increases ..


Or people are just a bit dense, and despite  all the advice cannot follow simple guidelines on how to prevent the spread of the virus. 

When this vaccine(s) were released it was abundantly clear to anyone that isn't a turnip that mask wearing, keeping your distance and sanitation of hands was also required.


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## odyssey06 (31 Oct 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Or people are just a bit dense, and despite  all the advice cannot follow simple guidelines on how to prevent the spread of the virus.
> 
> When this vaccine(s) were released it was abundantly clear to anyone that isn't a turnip that mask wearing, keeping your distance and sanitation of hands was also required.



There's certain cohorts here - those who have fallen for antivax propaganda, the anti-everything brigade and the same groups which ignore every other law they can and are let away with it ... who are deliberately 'dense'.
At some point, herd immunity will be reached in these groups, with needless deaths & hospitalisations racked up along the way which could have easily been prevented with vaccines and following basic public health advice.


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## seamus m (31 Oct 2021)

The vaccine doesn't come without risk  and is obviously only so effective so it's not hard to see why some people are sceptical .It's not just the unvaccinated passing it around


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## odyssey06 (31 Oct 2021)

seamus m said:


> The vaccine doesn't come without risk  and is obviously only so effective so it's not hard to see why some people are sceptical .It's not just the unvaccinated passing it around


It's not just the unvaccinated passing it around, but given that the vaccine is 95% effective at preventing severe cases involving ICU \ hospitalisation, and reduces your chances of being infected and transmitting it by something like 50%... we have a much better chance of coping with the breakthrough infections \ leaky transmissions from the vaccinated v the unprotected unvaccinated. Given that the vast majority of the adult population is vaccinated and especially in vulnerable older cohorts, but the majoirty of ICU patients are unvaccinated... that's testament to the power of the "Only so effective" vaccines.

The vaccine doesn't come without risk but it's less risky than catching covid, given how many restrictions have been lifted and the transmissibility of the delta variant, you can't rely on avoiding exposure to it.


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## Paul O Mahoney (31 Oct 2021)

seamus m said:


> The vaccine doesn't come without risk  and is obviously only so effective so it's not hard to see why some people are sceptical .It's not just the unvaccinated passing it around


You are simply reinforcing the advice given by the manufacturers for almost 10 months.  
People can be sceptical all they want once they wear a mask,  socially distance,  and have a bit of respect for their fellow citizens we would not have 3000 cases a day. 

Contemplate that,  if you're able


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## seamus m (1 Nov 2021)

2 neighbours in my little estate ended up in bed after vaccine for one 3 weeks the other 6 weeks and another lost her hair and I suppose you want pictutes


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## odyssey06 (2 Nov 2021)

demoivre said:


> It's the anti vaxxers are scaremongering right ? How common is this instance?
> 
> I'm expecting to die in my eighties. With or without a vaccine will me developing COVID 19 in the interim change that expectation?



One third of all covid deaths here were in under 80.

If you are over 41, you are at higher risk of mortality if you have a condition such a diabetes, COPD, hypertension, heart disease.
The risk increases again if you are over 70, with or without such conditions.
And many Irish people develop such conditions as they get older.

Vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death by 95%.

_COVID-19 patients with underlying diseases, male patients, and those above 41y have an increased risk of death. Particularly, age was confirmed as the most important factor positively correlated with mortality rather than the presence or absence of underlying diseases in those aged above 71y._









						Mortality Rate of Patients With COVID-19 Based on Underlying Health Conditions
					

The aim of this study was to evaluate the mortality rates of 566,602 patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on sex, age, and the presence or absence of underlying diseases and determine whether the underlying disease provides prognostic information ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


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## Paul O Mahoney (2 Nov 2021)

When all this started we hadn't a clue,  in fact the sense of community and altruism  sprouted every where.  
Its not as if solutions were going to fall from the sky  in fact it took science,  it took sacrifice,  it took so much good of the human psyche that was re-awakened and the world worked in unison to find a solution. 

Solutions are hard to find,  and if they were easy to find the ills of our planet would not be present,  but they are.

But solutions were found for Covid 19 indeed they were solutions that would have never found if the laws of commerce or greed were left to find a solution. 

Humanity is imperfect,  the French even has that in their language,  but when a solution is found and that solution out weights the alternative,  it's a good thing. 

When Madam Curie discovered radiation and saw the application to health most decried it , she died and had 2 Nobles,  her daughter also got one, btw.

These vaccines aren't perfect they hold risks but they also hold hope,  and hope isn't licked off the floor,  it needs work,  it needs planting, nurturing and sharing. 

Those who will always be begrudgingly in the "high grass" ye matter little as we as the rest of us are better and we know what's needed by our fellow citizens. 

So, get up the yard those who want to find fault.


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## Purple (3 Nov 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> When all this started we hadn't a clue,  in fact the sense of community and altruism  sprouted every where.
> Its not as if solutions were going to fall from the sky  in fact it took science,  it took sacrifice,  it took so much good of the human psyche that was re-awakened and the world worked in unison to find a solution.
> 
> Solutions are hard to find,  and if they were easy to find the ills of our planet would not be present,  but they are.
> ...


When it started we were treated to video clips from China telling us that this was like the Black Death. Ironically the same people who spread that misinformation not seem to make up a large part of the anti-vaxer/conspiracy theory cohort.  
There's still a great deal of scaremongering around Covid. If you get it you have a less than 1:100 chance of ending up in hospital and a tiny chance of dying from it. 

Over 80% of the 'underlying conditions' is just obesity. 
If you're not fat and you don't already have a serious immunocompromising condition or serious respiratory illness then you'll almost certainly be fine. 
It isn't the Zombie Apocalypse and it isn't the Black Death (Pneumonic Plague). It's a relatively serious respiratory illness but if you've managed to get some exercise and control your weight and been lucky enough not to got some other serious illness you really have almost nothing to worry about.



Paul O Mahoney said:


> When Madam Curie discovered radiation and saw the application to health most decried it , she died and had 2 Nobles,  her daughter also got one, btw.


Well she didn't discover radiation, but she was a great scientist, and her poor husband has been ignored by history and yes, it almost always happens the other way around (look up Rosalind Franklin).



Paul O Mahoney said:


> These vaccines aren't perfect they hold risks but they also hold hope,  and hope isn't licked off the floor,  it needs work,  it needs planting, nurturing and sharing.


It's a great victory for the hope science can bring. 


Paul O Mahoney said:


> Those who will always be begrudgingly in the "high grass" ye matter little as we as the rest of us are better and we know what's needed by our fellow citizens.
> 
> So, get up the yard those who want to find fault.


Well said.


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## demoivre (4 Nov 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> One third of all covid deaths here were in under 80.
> 
> If you are over 41, you are at higher risk of mortality if you have a condition such a diabetes, COPD, hypertension, heart disease.
> The risk increases again if you are over 70, with or without such conditions.
> ...



And all those risks would be reflected in the most up to date data from the HPSC which shows :

Median age of Covid deaths 82

470 of the confirmed 5,160 Covid related deaths didn't have underlying conditions.

76% of the deaths were in >75s

92% of the deaths were in >65s

1% of the deaths were in <45s

So to answer my own question if I develop Covid 19 I can still expect to live to my eighties when I';m expecting to die anyway , as can the overwhelming majority of the population who develop Covid 19.


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## Purple (4 Nov 2021)

I think we have really screwed up by not introducing widespread antigen testing. 
You should have to show a negative result which is less than 24 hours old to go to a nightclub or indoor gig. 
The Vaccine Cert is pointless in the context of reducing infection, though vaccination is still by far the best way of reducing serious illness, hospitalisation and death.

The HSE should be releasing two sets of figures, one for vaccinated people and the other for unvaccinated people. If you're not vaccinated by choice and you get Covid and die then tough luck, it's your own fault. Those deaths should be met with a societal shrug of the shoulders. They don't matter.


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## Sophrosyne (4 Nov 2021)

Though COVID-19 seems to be here since forever, in virus terms it is new and not _fully_ understood by _anyone. _There is ongoing global research into its short- and long-term effects, which will last many years.

What we do know is that it is highly transmissible and dangerous to the vulnerable as defined by the HSE.

We also know that it is capable of several mutations. Thankfully, it hasn’t yet morphed into something that is dangerous to everyone. However, typical of all viruses, it will enter the host of least resistance.

That we have vaccines at all is a minor miracle, but as yet, they only prevent serious illness in most cases rather than transmission.

The vulnerable do not live in a vacuum. They form part of an interaction chain and can be infected by anyone in that chain – we’ve all seen the graphs and infographics.

COVID cases have a lengthy hospital stay and so COVID-19 should not be viewed solely in terms of fatalities but also about hospital & ICU bed usage and necessary clinicians & ancillary staff.

The main objective of health measures was _and still is_ to prevent hospitals and ICUs becoming overwhelmed by COVID-19.

The secondary goal is to limit as far as possible COVID sickness in trades and professions that are essential for the economy to function.

You have to hope that the majority understand the importance of limiting transmission. There will always be the “I don’t see why I should have to” unfortunates and the conspiracy theory suckers.

That aside, you debate coulda, shoulda, woulda. On the one hand, things might have been done better – everyone has an opinion. On the other hand, it could have been a whole lot worse – everyone has an opinion.

However, I don’t believe we are over this pandemic and our best hope is for a vaccine that prevents transmission.


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## Brendan Burgess (4 Nov 2021)

Folks

The Posting Guidelines apply to this forum just like any others. 

I appreciate the frustration, but do not call other posters by offensive names. 

If people post offensive posts or rubbish, then report them. Do not reply.

I have deleted a lot of offensive posts and other posts quoting them.

Brendan


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