# Stockbrokers reduce earnings forecasts for Irish banks



## camlin90 (28 Jan 2008)

This story makes me worry a little about having cash on deposit at various banks... Any thoughts?

http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/0128/banks.html


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## gallogly (28 Jan 2008)

*Re: 3 Irish banks downgraded*

these are broker recommendations on whether you should be buying, selling or holding the stock. Not to be confused with credit rating.


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## ClubMan (28 Jan 2008)

*Re: 3 Irish banks downgraded*

Buy/sell/hold recommendations from brokers are meaningless in most or all cases. Brokers issue a lot of these just to stimulate activity and to make it look to punters like they can somehow magically second guess and time the market. If the security of a bank is of interest to you then you might be better off looking at their credit ratings from various independent agencies.

_Post crossed with gallogly's._


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## vipera1 (28 Jan 2008)

*Re: 3 Irish banks downgraded*

Deposits are as secure as the banks are. I've more worries with shares in all three banks.


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## z106 (28 Jan 2008)

*USB advises clients to sell irish banks*

USB have just come out and said that people should sell irish banks as they are overexposed to commercial property.

Like - far be it for me to criticise USB as an advisor - but,given that some Irish banks have dropped nearly 50% in the last 12 months and they're only coming out *now* to advise customers to sell their shares...well...surely any good advisor worth his salt would have given out this advice long before now. 

Is this not a huge case of shutting the door after the horse has bolted (or whatever that phrase is)?

My point is - can we really trust USBs judgement given their lack of credibility so far in relation to irish banks.


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## ontour (28 Jan 2008)

*Re: USB advises clients to sell irish banks*

me thinks that you are mean UBS rather than a rogue USB device targeting the Irish banks.

Buy / Sell / Hold recommendations vary between financial advisors - this is not a shocking piece of news. I don't think that UBS are particulairly a unique source of proven wisdom !


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## Brendan Burgess (28 Jan 2008)

*Re: USB advises clients to sell irish banks*

keyboard and others

Please be very careful that your responses stay withing the Posting Guidelines. We don't discuss the prices of individual shares. 

Brendan


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## z106 (28 Jan 2008)

*Re: USB advises clients to sell irish banks*



Brendan said:


> keyboard and others
> 
> Please be very careful that your responses stay withing the Posting Guidelines. We don't discuss the prices of individual shares.
> 
> Brendan


 
Ok - fair enough.

I wasn't rying to make the point about any specific bank.My underlying point was more of a general one.

In that - any advice given way too late by anyone about anything should surely be taken with a pinch of salt. Credibility would surely have to be called into question.
Yet it affected the iseq today apparently.


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## ClubMan (28 Jan 2008)

*Re: 3 Irish banks downgraded*

Duplicate threads merged.


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## Amru (28 Jan 2008)

Generally i think you have to be cynical about stockbroker buy/sell recommendations and target prices etc. 


And talking of over-exposure to property:

"UBS has written off about $14bn (£7.1bn) in debts linked to sub-prime loans and has warned of further losses. " - BBC Website


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## Tadhgin (30 Jan 2008)

John J - are you aware of the deposit guarantee scheme that operates in relation to Irish Bank Deposits :- the lesser of €20,000 or 90% of deposits held is guaranteed.


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## Duke of Marmalade (31 Jan 2008)

The shares in one of our biggest retail banks (within guidelines Boss?) are currently valued at 10Bn. I believe UBS are predicing a 20% fall - that's down to 8Bn. Before the Celtic Tiger took off they were worth about 1Bn - were we worried about our deposits then?

If the deposits were in danger the shares would be nigh worthless.



> John J - are you aware of the deposit guarantee scheme that operates in relation to Irish Bank Deposits :- the lesser of €20,000 or 90% of deposits held is guaranteed.


 
Let's suppose that JJ is approaching retirement at 60, he has been prudent and has saved enough in his self employed pension to support a pension going forward equal to the average industrial wage. That requires a sum of in excess of 500K. JJ is very conservative and keeps it all on deposit.

Can he sleep nights knowing the government has guaranteed that he will enjoy his pension for at least 6 months?

The point I am making is that whilst 20K may sound a lot, with the burgeoning of DC pensions there are going to be an awful lot of people of quite modest incomes who will be sitting on many multiples of the current guarantee.


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