# Opinions on Budget 2022



## Firefly (13 Oct 2021)

I'm calling this budget reckless.  

The economy is expected to rebound strongly - in such times governments should adopt a countercyclical policy and reduce spending, not increase it.

The national debt is 240bn. As we all know by now, governments never repay debt, they merely roll it over. Interest rates are currently very low so borrowing can seem attractive...all fine & well until interest rates rise and we need to refinance this debt.


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## noproblem (13 Oct 2021)

Firefly said:


> As we all know by now, governments never repay debt, they merely roll it over


Well, if you use the same logic with higher interest rates, it shouldn't matter.


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## jpd (13 Oct 2021)

When you roll the debt over, your interest costs will soar leaving two options, neither very attractive,

1. reduce spending
2. increase taxation


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## Deiseblue (13 Oct 2021)

A budget that reflects Sinn Fein’s popularity writ large


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## Purple (14 Oct 2021)

Firefly said:


> The economy is expected to rebound strongly - in such times governments should adopt a countercyclical policy and reduce spending, not increase it.


The "When I have it I'll spend it" doctrine has always served us well in the past. Sure what could go wrong?


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## Purple (14 Oct 2021)

Deiseblue said:


> A budget that reflects Sinn Fein’s popularity writ large



I think that should be "A budget that reflects Sinn Fein’s *populism *writ large".
If so I agree. I vote on the basis of selecting the prospective government that will do least harm. For the last good while that's been the Blue Shirts. Social issues are decided by the Courts, derived from EU laws and treaties, so there's no point in voting on that basis. The liberal agenda won that battle, which is a good thing in my mind. 
So, it's all about economics and where and how the Government chooses to waste our money.


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## 24601 (14 Oct 2021)

Purple said:


> I think that should be "A budget that reflects Sinn Fein’s *populism *writ large".
> If so I agree. I vote on the basis of selecting the prospective government that will do least harm. For the last good while that's been the Blue Shirts. Social issues are decided by the Courts, derived from EU laws and treaties, so there's no point in voting on that basis. The liberal agenda won that battle, which is a good thing in my mind.
> So, it's all about economics and where and how the Government chooses to waste our money.



We could really do with a reincarnation of the PDs before they sold their soul to Bertie. Fine Gael, even as the party furthest to the right, are left wing economically. There's no political home for fiscal conservatives in Ireland any more.


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## Paul O Mahoney (14 Oct 2021)

jpd said:


> When you roll the debt over, your interest costs will soar leaving two options, neither very attractive,
> 
> 1. reduce spending
> 2. increase taxation


However the NTMA only last week said our interest on all debt has decreased by €2bn to €4.5bn and from memory we don't have and repayments until later in the decade. 

I'll try and find the story and link it


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## Paul O Mahoney (14 Oct 2021)

Purple said:


> The "When I have it I'll spend it" doctrine has always served us well in the past. Sure what could go wrong?


That's almost 20 years ago,  we had 4bn surpluses inflation ran up happily and the SSIA was introduced. 
Charlie gets shafted and sent to Europe but it was too late by 2006 the whole house of cards was falling,  we moved back from Galway in early 2007 and many were saying a 10% correction was likely,  turned out to be 55% and utter devastation of the economy. 

Tuesday's budget has certain similarities but unlike the early noughties we have the EU looking over our shoulders.


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## jpd (14 Oct 2021)

We have bonds maturing every year for the next 10 years and then every two years up to 2041 and then 2045 and 2050 so rising interest rates will impact interest costs pretty quickly
See here https://www.ntma.ie/government_bonds/Outstanding-Bonds-Report-2021-10-13.pdf


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## Purple (14 Oct 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Tuesday's budget has certain similarities but unlike the early noughties we have the EU looking over our shoulders.


Yea, and they are out Charlieing Charlie.


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## Paul O Mahoney (14 Oct 2021)

24601 said:


> We could really do with a reincarnation of the PDs before they sold their soul to Bertie. Fine Gael, even as the party furthest to the right, are left wing economically. There's no political home for fiscal conservatives in Ireland any more.


I actually had a conversation with Dessie O Malley in Fota about 10 years ago and I asked him if Ireland would have or accept a party like the PDs again,  he simply said "No, as society didn't want the black and white policies" and he was right we seem to give "everyone in the audience a fiver " when the budget is put together. 

It achieves nothing this policy, there is so much wastage of money and brain power in this country and it has been like that for ever, we'll never change now. I'm 54 and if I get to 74 I'll guarantee that our debt will be 100% of National Income and I'll get €5 a week extra in my pension. 

Our kids will be in their early 40s and living abroad,  one has already started that journey, the other biting at the bit.

As a country we treat citizens disgracefully and have done forever and more so since 1921.

We have great minds but trying to start a company here is easy but the Government and its tentacles await to strangle anything that might be of use, I have so many examples of this that I helped to start, but only one really made it and that was funding from the UK.

Nothing will change


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## Paul O Mahoney (14 Oct 2021)

jpd said:


> We have bonds maturing every year for the next 10 years and then every two years up to 2041 and then 2045 and 2050 so rising interest rates will impact interest costs pretty quickly
> See here https://www.ntma.ie/government_bonds/Outstanding-Bonds-Report-2021-10-13.pdf


Ok I'll dig out what was said I probably misunderstood it.


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## Purple (14 Oct 2021)

jpd said:


> We have bonds maturing every year for the next 10 years and then every two years up to 2041 and then 2045 and 2050 so rising interest rates will impact interest costs pretty quickly
> See here https://www.ntma.ie/government_bonds/Outstanding-Bonds-Report-2021-10-13.pdf


€93,064,780,000 before the end of 2030. If interest rates go up to 3% or more we're screwed.


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## Paul O Mahoney (14 Oct 2021)

NTMA sees State’s interest rate falling to 1.5%
					

ECB buying up most debt issued to deal with Covid fallout




					www.irishtimes.com
				




Here's one story but it's not the one I read.


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## Paul O Mahoney (14 Oct 2021)

NTMA chief says Rainy Day Fund is empty
					

The country's Rainy Day Fund is empty, the Public Accounts Committee has heard today.




					www.rte.ie
				




Sorry I assumed , reading this it says there are no "funding cliffs" and our maturities at 11 years were the longest. 

I added 1+1 and got 4


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## time to plan (14 Oct 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> I actually had a conversation with Dessie O Malley in Fota about 10 years ago and I asked him if Ireland would have or accept a party like the PDs again,  he simply said "No, as society didn't want the black and white policies" and he was right we seem to give "everyone in the audience a fiver " when the budget is put together.
> 
> It achieves nothing this policy, there is so much wastage of money and brain power in this country and it has been like that for ever, we'll never change now. I'm 54 and if I get to 74 I'll guarantee that our debt will be 100% of National Income and I'll get €5 a week extra in my pension.
> 
> ...


My observations as an immigrant to this country is that is a highly successful and prosperous country (overall), but really badly run.

In terms of the Budget, there was nothing in there that will properly address the housing crisis.


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## galway_blow_in (14 Oct 2021)

time to plan said:


> My observations as an immigrant to this country is that is a highly successful and prosperous country (overall), but really badly run.
> 
> In terms of the Budget, there was nothing in there that will properly address the housing crisis.


Our electoral system ( PR ) is one of the root causes of our inability to best manage. 

Every TD must look over their shoulder constantly less they see a rival get ahead of them on populist policies


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## Purple (14 Oct 2021)

time to plan said:


> My observations as an immigrant to this country is that is a highly successful and prosperous country (overall), but really badly run.


I think that's an excellent summary of this country.


time to plan said:


> In terms of the Budget, there was nothing in there that will properly address the housing crisis.


The housing crisis is an international phenomenon. We are feeling it more than most because we are a more open economy than most. I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of the issue in that the narrative is that it has been caused by a failure of Irish Government policy. Government policy has probably exacerbated the problem but it hasn't caused it. We are a tiny boat floating on the vast river of international capital flows, all we can do is tack our sails but we can't direct the river.


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## Purple (14 Oct 2021)

galway_blow_in said:


> Our electoral system ( PR ) is one of the root causes of our inability to best manage.
> 
> Every TD must look over their shoulder constantly less they see a rival get ahead of them on populist policies


Yep, we've an excellent system for electing County Councillors but unfortunately we use it to elect them to our Parliament.


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## Paul O Mahoney (14 Oct 2021)

Purple said:


> Yep, we've an excellent system for electing County Councillors but unfortunately we use it to elect them to our Parliament.


It was designed to give smaller parties a better chance of getting representation,  while fine for that , but we have elected an awful lot of donkeys, some 3 legged.


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## Purple (14 Oct 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> It was designed to give smaller parties a better chance of getting representation,  while fine for that , but we have elected an awful lot of donkeys, some 3 legged.


We end up with a strong Parliament and a weak Government, too weak to make real changes.


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## gianni (14 Oct 2021)

I think PR is the least worst system of electing TDs. The obvious downside is the clientelism that infects part of it. 

David McSavage has a good sketch about it..the jist of it is that a son is told by the father to vote for someone because "he fihxed de road"...

I cringe when I hear ppl suggest contacting your TD if your passport is delayed, etc...


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## Purple (14 Oct 2021)

The Irish Times is at it again with their leftie bias.
They have a headline "Budget 2022 will increase poverty and leave vulnerable behind" but fail to note that it's actually an opinion piece from _Social Justice Ireland,_ a far left advocacy group.


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## odyssey06 (14 Oct 2021)

gianni said:


> I think PR is the least worst system of electing TDs. The obvious downside is the clientelism that infects part of it.
> 
> David McSavage has a good sketch about it..the jist of it is that a son is told by the father to vote for someone because "he fihxed de road"...
> 
> I cringe when I hear ppl suggest contacting your TD if your passport is delayed, etc...


It's not PR as such that's a problem. It's multi-seat constituencies, it encourages 'clientism' because you have multiple people from the same party chasing the same seats, it's not just about policies.

Edit - it's also a reflection of our poor public service where the public are seen as a hindrance and had no other escalation mechanism, and calling the TD \ councillor was the only way to cut the bureaucratic limbo you were stuck in


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## Baby boomer (14 Oct 2021)

Purple said:


> We end up with a strong Parliament and a weak Government, too weak to make real changes.


Actually, it's the other way around.  We have a very centralised Executive Government with the Oireachtas acting as a rubber stamp for whatever the Cabinet decides.


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## Baby boomer (14 Oct 2021)

Purple said:


> The Irish Times is at it again with their leftie bias.
> They have a headline "Budget 2022 will increase poverty and leave vulnerable behind" but fail to note that it's actually an opinion piece from _Social Justice Ireland,_ a far left advocacy group.


The really shocking thing about that piece is the in-built assumption that the only, or principle, "solution" to poverty is more social welfare.  It's like it doesn't even occur to them that there's a more obvious solution - get people off welfare and into jobs.  The impression SJI give is that their ideal vision of society is one where social welfare is freely available to all, at a level high enough to afford a comfortable standard of living.  

Now, which political party does that remind me of......?


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## Purple (14 Oct 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> Actually, it's the other way around.  We have a very centralised Executive Government with the Oireachtas acting as a rubber stamp for whatever the Cabinet decides.


No, it's very hard for any government to have a clear majority so every decision is a fudge. In reality, for better or worse, there very little policy difference between any government as they have to pander to vested interests, Unions, the Civil Service and whatever flotsam and jetsam they needed to make up their Parliamentary majority.


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## Purple (14 Oct 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> The really shocking thing about that piece is the in-built assumption that the only, or principle, "solution" to poverty is more social welfare.  It's like it doesn't even occur to them that there's a more obvious solution - get people off welfare and into jobs.  The impression SJI give is that their ideal vision of society is one where social welfare is freely available to all, at a level high enough to afford a comfortable standard of living.
> 
> Now, which political party does that remind me of......?


Yes, the populist left, the poverty industry and the far left all treat poverty as if it's the root cause of the problem rather than the biggest symptom of the problem.


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## Firefly (14 Oct 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> It's like it doesn't even occur to them that there's a more obvious solution - get people off welfare and into jobs.


"_I believe the best social program is a job_" Ronald Regan


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## odyssey06 (14 Oct 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> The really shocking thing about that piece is the in-built assumption that the only, or principle, "solution" to poverty is more social welfare.  It's like it doesn't even occur to them that there's a more obvious solution - get people off welfare and into jobs.  The impression SJI give is that their ideal vision of society is one where social welfare is freely available to all, at a level high enough to afford a comfortable standard of living.
> 
> Now, which political party does that remind me of......?


But if the people have jobs, they won't be dependent on SJI, and SJI will have no power / audience.


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## Sophrosyne (14 Oct 2021)

I think one of the most significant aspect of the budget is the increase in carbon tax and the VAT thereon.

This will push up prices everywhere.


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## Purple (15 Oct 2021)

Firefly said:


> "_I believe the best social program is a job_" Ronald Regan


As long as it pays enough to cover basic living costs. there's no point in forcing a single parent of a young child into a low paid job and leaving the child to effectively fend for themselves.


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