# Coronavirus



## Firefly

HSE are obviously prepared for this.....









						COVID-19 (coronavirus)
					

Get advice about COVID-19, including symptoms, testing, vaccination and self-isolation.




					www2.hse.ie
				




Last updated: 07 February 2020

_You do not need to follow any specific advice in relation to coronavirus if you have:_

_not been to mainland China_

meanwhile....

*Irish staff at Indeed told to work from home over coronavirus concerns
Indeed employs over 1,000 people in Ireland and says employee may have been exposed*









						Irish staff at Indeed told to work from home amid coronavirus concerns
					

Indeed employs over 1,000 people locally and says staff member may have been exposed




					www.irishtimes.com


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## Leo

What do you propose would be an appropriate national level response to a few people maybe being exposed to a single person who had previously been in Singapore and may have been exposed to the virus?


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## Purple

Leo said:


> What do you propose would be an appropriate national level response to a few people maybe being exposed to a single person who had previously been in Singapore and may have been exposed to the virus?


Shoot them, shoot them all.


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## odyssey06

I hope the HSE are stocking up on as much oxygen, personal protective equipment, alcohol handgels, antibacterial soap as they can...


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## Sunny

Move them up North while we still have free movement.... And then sit back and read the daily mail.


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## Leo

Sunny said:


> And then sit back and read the daily mail.



I knew that killed brain cells, I didn't realise it was also effective against viral infections!


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## Thirsty

And in the meantime consider the fact that in 2018 measles killed 140,000 people world wide (source: WHO) and a cheap vaccine is available.


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## Firefly

Leo said:


> What do you propose would be an appropriate national level response to a few people maybe being exposed to a single person who had previously been in Singapore and may have been exposed to the virus?


I think the risk is still quite low, but the advising people not to follow any specific advice in relation to coronavirus if they have not been to mainland China surely can't be good advise?


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## Purple

Thirsty said:


> And in the meantime consider the fact that in 2018 measles killed 140,000 people world wide (source: WHO) and a cheap vaccine is available.


They were mainly black and poor though, right? It's okay for poor black people to die of measles. 
And don't forget diarrhea which kills 2,195 children every day, more than AIDS, malaria, and measles combined.  But it's okay, they are black and brown and most importantly they are poor (really poor, not Irish poor) and diarrhea won't kill white kids since the cure is clean water and some food. 

In the meantime let's keep panicking about a disease which might kill some rich people. Let's talk about the vaccines that will be developed. Let's not talk about the cure for diarrhea since that one is so complicated; toilets and sanitation.


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## Leo

Firefly said:


> I think the risk is still quite low, but the advising people not to follow any specific advice in relation to coronavirus if they have not been to mainland China surely can't be good advise?



The risk level here is currently so low, doing any more would be an over reaction. The regular flu kills 2-500 people here every year, there is nothing yet to justify advice other than the general advice in place for that for people who have not traveled to China or who have been in direct contact with someone confirmed to have coronavirus.


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## Firefly

Leo said:


> The risk level here is currently so low, doing any more would be an over reaction. The regular flu kills 2-500 people here every year, there is nothing yet to justify advice other than the general advice in place for that for people who have not traveled to China or who have been in direct contact with someone confirmed to have coronavirus.


Yeah, you're right actually and I'm probably overly overreacting. But I can't say I'm not a little worried.


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## odyssey06

I don't believe for one second China cordoned off provinces because of the number of deaths that has been reported. The real figures are much worse than anything published as they weren't classifying people who died from secondary conditions such as pneumonia as victims of coronavirus unless they had been tested. And they can only test so many people. The real death toll is at least 10 times higher and could be much worse.

It is causing so many secondary complications that the medical facilities in parts of China are overwhelmed. 

That's what got other countries spooked in a way that flu and measles does not. 
And especially bad would be if coronavirus hit while flu season was still ongoing.


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## Firefly

odyssey06 said:


> I don't believe for one second China cordoned off provinces because of the number of deaths that has been reported. The real figures are much worse than anything published as they weren't classifying people who died from secondary conditions such as pneumonia as victims of coronavirus unless they had been tested. And they can only test so many people. The real death toll is at least 10 times higher and could be much worse.
> 
> It is causing so many secondary complications that the medical facilities in parts of China are overwhelmed.
> 
> _That's what got other countries spooked in a way that flu and measles does not._
> And especially bad would be if coronavirus hit while flu season was still ongoing.



That and the small complication of not having a cure yet....


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## Leo

Firefly said:


> Yeah, you're right actually and I'm probably overly overreacting. But I can't say I'm not a little worried.



It certainly has the capacity to become a huge issue, but at this point, telling people to do more might cost more lives with panic buying putting a strain on medical supply chains.


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## michaelm

odyssey06 said:


> The real death toll is at least 10 times higher and could be much worse.


Indeed, it's hard not to think that the official figures are just the tip of the iceberg.


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## odyssey06

This is a worrying development...
_Twelve patients treated by two British GPs who have been diagnosed with coronavirus are being traced by health officials, the BBC understands.
Between them, the two doctors worked in four different places in East and West Sussex - a nursing home, an A&E department and two GP practices._









						More coronavirus cases 'highly likely' in UK - health officials
					

New cases will probably be brought in by people travelling from overseas, Public Health England says.



					www.bbc.com


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## mathepac

Did you know that coronavirus is simply an anagram of  "carnivorous" and the world-wide epidemic is life imitating art with flesh-eating monsters now loose amongst us and not just on the telly?  Can WHO fix this or is the real question *who* can fix this?


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## odyssey06

mathepac said:


> Did you know that coronavirus is simply an anagram of  "carnivorous" and the world-wide epidemic is life imitating art with flesh-eating monsters now loose amongst us and not just on the telly?  Can WHO fix this or is the real question *who* can fix this?



Does that mean vegans are safe?


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## mathepac

I don't think so. Although some vegans might qualify as vegetables, there are still largely composed of flesh and blood meaning they could be attractive as starters or side dishes; WHO knows? I've used a query to end that sentence as a question  but is it really and does WHO actually know?

Worrying developments tonight as there are outbreaks of the virus now reported in the Middle East with no apparent links back to China.


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## Leo

mathepac said:


> Can WHO fix this or is the real question *who* can fix this?



Is it the A-Team????


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## Purple

With the impending spread of the disease to these shores will the Shinners have to cancel their rallies (Their very own Reichsparteitag)?


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## odyssey06

The WHO can't declare a pandemic because they no longer have an agreed process for calling a pandemic... this is like something from Monty Python.

Back in the real world, major stock markets down 3-5%...


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## michaelm

The first half of this Coronavirus comparison video is interesting, if busy, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU

I hadn't remembered that Swine Flu had affected so many.


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## Purple

michaelm said:


> The first half of this Coronavirus comparison video is interesting, if busy, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU
> 
> I hadn't remembered that Swine Flu had affected so many.


Now that white people are dying from it the world will have to take notice. When the first few Americans die from it they will have to really take it seriously.


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## DirectDevil

As far as the Corona Virus goes as at now it is Rumsfeld type thinking time again ;

1. Known knowns,
2. Known unknowns,
3. Unknowns unknowns &
4. Unknown knowns.

It will take it's natural course no matter what.


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## odyssey06

DirectDevil said:


> As far as the Corona Virus goes as at now it is Rumsfeld type thinking time again ;
> 1. Known knowns, 2. Known unknowns, 3. Unknowns unknowns & 4. Unknown knowns.
> It will take it's natural course no matter what.



That is a good way of thinking about it.

But in terms of natural course, I think a lot of the current measures are about slowing down the spread so that all the cases don't hit at the same time.
There's a major risk that the number of cases with complications will exceed the available medical capacity to treat with ventilators\ICU etc.
IF we get the same number of cases but over months rather than weeks, it could spread the load on the health services.
And buy time for learning how best to treat it \ figure out what anti-virals work best \ produce more anti-virals.
We won't have time for a properly tested vaccine though.


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## Purple

In the meantime stock up on canned goods and ammunition.


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## Sophrosyne

The main containment problem with the Coronavirus is that symptoms are not immediately evident.

The incubation period varies greatly - 2-14 days, with outliers of 27 days.

A person who self-isolates or contacts their GP might have already and unknowingly spread the infection.


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## odyssey06

Sophrosyne said:


> The main containment problem with the Coronavirus is that symptoms are not immediately evident.
> A person who self-isolates or contacts their GP might have already and unknowingly spread the infection.



Yes, that's why it's going global in a way SARs did not.

The further problem with 'self isolation' is how can you really self-isolate if you live with anyone else, especially if there's only a single bathroom...


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## Purple

My understanding is that SARS was far more contagious but just not a robust virus so just died off after a while.
No deaths have  been reported in China for those under 9 years of age but the mortality rate for those from 70 to 79 years old is 8% and for those 80 years and older the death rate is 14.8%. Most of those under 70 who have died have had pre-existing severe illnesses such as heart disease and cancer. 
No deaths were reported among mild and severe cases. The fatality rate was 49% among critical cases, and elevated among those with preexisting conditions: 10.5% for people with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer. 
Source


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## michaelm

Still 'self isolation', to whatever degree a possibly infected person can, should be better than 'freely mingling'.  Most, or many, who cohabit will have a bedroom with an en suite.  Reasonable steps to slow the spread of this virus, and give the health system a chance, is perhaps the best we can do.


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## michaelm

While the bare stats don't look too scary for those under 60 this may just be the first wave of the virus.  The first wave of the Spanish Flu was mild compared to the second wave.


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## cremeegg

michaelm said:


> While the bare stats don't look too scary for those under 60 this may just be the first wave of the virus.  The first wave of the Spanish Flu was mild compared to the second wave.



Thanks for that.


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## The_Banker

michaelm said:


> While the bare stats don't look too scary for those under 60 this may just be the first wave of the virus.  The first wave of the Spanish Flu was mild compared to the second wave.


Despite its name the ‘Spanish’ flu also started in China.


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## Purple

The_Banker said:


> Despite its name the ‘Spanish’ flu also started in China.


Apparently it started in a farm in Kansas where a chicken with avian flu gave the virus to a pig with swine flu and then passed it on to a farmer. The first recorded cases were in Haskell County with up to 500 soldiers in Fort Riley later coming down with it in 1918. Within a few months they had recovered and were sent to Europe. It was there that it mutated and became deadly. In that context we shouldn't be too worried about outbreaks in Italy but rather outbreaks in places like refugee camps and war zones where there is a concentration of sick and generally immunocompromised people for it to jump between quickly and mutate.


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## Purple

School in Glasnevin closed. All bridges across the Liffey closed. Southsiders will have to clean their own houses until further notice. It is hoped that the crisis will be over before the end of the month or we run the risk of having to cut our own grass. This is getting serious!


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## odyssey06

They caught it on a skiing trip... this is what happens when D4 notions spread unchecked.


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## josh8267

odyssey06 said:


> They caught it on a skiing trip... this is what happens when D4 notions spread unchecked.


Well the good point is the will not notice the drop in wages on a serious note it a worry seeing it is in a built up area with lots of people on the move lets hope it can be contained ,seeing it was a young person they have a better chance of an early recovery,


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## Purple

It looks like public servants will be paid while off work with Covid19 related issues. Good to see the important things being dealt with first...


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## josh8267

Better still they got is sorted years ago unlike the private sector workers ,I wonder will it help open the eyes in the private sector on how the social security system is letting down the private sector workers and employers when something goes wrong affecting employment outside there control,I suspect not,


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## Duke of Marmalade

IT editorial today observes that the worst case scenario is that 80% of the population will contract the disease.  So what's the big fuss about?


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## Purple

Worst case scenario we get hit by a meteor and we all die


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## Duke of Marmalade

Reports that John Travolta has been admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19.


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## odyssey06

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Reports that John Travolta has been admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19.



You forgot the punchline...
Doctors now confirm that it was only Saturday Night Fever, and they assure everyone that he is Staying Alive.


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## Duke of Marmalade

Projections of 1.9m infected.  This is either the greatest hoax since Y2K or we are in serious doodah.
I understood the Y2K premise and saw it always as a hoax.  I am not a medical man so I can make no call at all on this COVID thing.  My instinct though is that it is in the Y2K, Climate Change space of the human instinct to have a death wish.


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## TarfHead

There was a young lad sitting opposite me on the DART this morning covering the odd sneeze and cough with his hand.  Then wiping same hand on his trousers.


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## EmmDee

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Projections of 1.9m infected.  This is either the greatest hoax since Y2K or we are in serious doodah.
> I understood the Y2K premise and saw it always as a hoax.  I am not a medical man so I can make no call at all on this COVID thing.  My instinct though is that it is in the Y2K, Climate Change space of the human instinct to have a death wish.



Y2K wasn't a hoax. It didn't turn into a problem becausee there were significant changes made in advance. But the core issue was valid.

The 1.9mm isn't, as far as I know, a "projection" in the sense of predicting the outcome. It is the upper end of what the models state. So it is a possibile outcome. If it doesn't happen it doesn't make it a hoax. These things will always have bands - nobody can accurately "project" what will happen.

The Spanish Flu was estimated to have hit 25% of the world's population at the time. It is still used as part of modelling what could happen - though not exclusively.

I think we sometimes read scientific or technical statements incorrectly which leads people to assume it was all a "hoax" when the outcome is different to some headline number


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## michaelm

EmmDee said:


> Y2K wasn't a hoax. It didn't turn into a problem becausee there were significant changes made in advance.


Some countries, like the UK, spent silly money on Y2K prep.  Many others, notably China and Italy, spent very little.  Outcomes were the same despite the differing spend.


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## odyssey06

michaelm said:


> Some countries, like the UK, spent silly money on Y2K prep.  Many others, notably China and Italy, spent very little.  Outcomes were the same despite the differing spend.



A lot of the money spent wasn't just Y2K though... many organisations used it as a rationale for upgrading their IT systems. 
They money wasn't just spent on Y2K and was far and above what would have been needed just to resolve Y2K.


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## Purple

EmmDee said:


> The Spanish Flu was estimated to have hit 25% of the world's population at the time. It is still used as part of modelling what could happen - though not exclusively.


What made the 1918 flu so dangerous was the fast rate at which it mutated. That also made it short lived. This virus doesn't seem to be mutating, yet anyway. That will make it easier to treat.


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## Peanuts20

Duke of Marmalade said:


> IT editorial today observes that the worst case scenario is that 80% of the population will contract the disease.  So what's the big fuss about?



Simple, if only 1% of them require hospitalisation then its 40k + people needing a hospital bed


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## Purple

Peanuts20 said:


> Simple, if only 1% of them require hospitalisation then its 40k + people needing a hospital bed


The function of self isolation, quarantine etc is to spread out the infection rate and so the hospitalisation rate.
In a normal flu season in Ireland between 3000 and 10000 people are hospitalised and 200-500 die.

It is also important to distinguish between those who die who have flu and those who die of flu.
The same is true of Covid19. 

This is bad but it's not the start of the collapse of civilisation.


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## Duke of Marmalade

EmmDee said:


> Y2K wasn't a hoax. It didn't turn into a problem because there were significant changes made in advance. But the core issue was valid.


I am of course speaking somewhat rhetorically.  Ironically, China and Italy decided to ignore Y2K while the rest of us obsessed with simulated war rooms etc.  China and Italy survived along with the rest of us.  It was a "hoax" not so much as a deliberate attempt to scam people (though some do subscribe to that conspiracy theory). It was a group self hoax - we hoaxed ourselves.

_michaelm I see you have already made similar points, though I have now added China to my post.  Maybe all those Y2K preparations inadvertently protected against COVID-19_


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## Peanuts20

Purple said:


> The function of self isolation, quarantine etc is to spread out the infection rate and so the hospitalisation rate.
> In a normal flu season in Ireland between 3000 and 10000 people are hospitalised and 200-500 die.
> 
> It is also important to distinguish between those who die who have flu and those who die of flu.
> The same is true of Covid19.
> 
> This is bad but it's not the start of the collapse of civilisation.



Completely agree, it's not ebola or the plague


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## Purple

Peanuts20 said:


> Completely agree, it's not ebola or the plague


Even the 1918 flu became much less deadly as doctors got better at treating it. 
A serious flu in a war zone with no medication, a shortage of food and a proliferation of other diseases would have a much higher mortality rate than it has here now. 

We should also remember that we have a housing crisis and a looming pension crisis... every cloud and all that


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## john luc

The Spainish flu killed more soldiers then guns did


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## Purple

john luc said:


> The Spainish flu killed more soldiers then guns did


About a quarter of the deaths during the First World War were due to disease, excluding Flu. It was the first major conflict in 100 years where the majority of deaths were not due to disease. In Crimea twice as many died from disease than were killed in action or died from wounds (wounds included infections from cuts etc).
The great statistician and key figure in the invention of epidemiology and modern nursing Florence Nightingale can be credited with much of that reduction. The fact that she is commonly (and totally incorrectly) remembered as a soft-hearted nurse and not a scientist and statistician is one of the greatest examples of sexism you will ever find.


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## cremeegg

Purple said:


> The great statistician and key figure in the invention of epidemiology and modern nursing Florence Nightingale can be credited with much of that reduction. The fact that she is commonly (and totally incorrectly) remembered as a soft-hearted nurse and not a scientist and statistician is one of the greatest examples of sexism you will ever find.



I tell groups of young people that Florence Nightingale was a mathematician, expecting to get a "well I didn't know that" or a "that's interesting" reaction.

Recently I find that the most common reaction is "who was Florence Nightingale".


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## odyssey06

cremeegg said:


> I tell groups of young people that Florence Nightingale was a mathematician, expecting to get a "well I didn't know that" or a "that's interesting" reaction. Recently I find that the most common reaction is "who was Florence Nightingale".



The feminists don't like her anymore, so she's not even lauded as an early woman pioneer in medicine...


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## WolfeTone

3 more cases this evening, West, South and East. 
Arrivals in Dublin airport from Milan have been occurring all day with only one Aer Lingus flight cancelled this evening.


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## WolfeTone

Apparently, the last time Saudi Arabia cut the price of oil so drastically, back in 1985, the Soviet Union began to collapse four years later. 
If this price cut is sustained we are heading for some turbulent times. 
I have no idea how this Coronavirus issue will pan out, but my gut feeling is that it is something that is going to be with us for a long time and our way of living is going to go under some fundamental changes.


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## Duke of Marmalade

I see the doomsayers are covering their tracks.  Apparently many folk will get it but won't know they have got it.  That's one sure way to say your predictions were right.


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