# Time to buy in



## Vendissimo (28 Feb 2020)

With global markets suffering their biggest weekly losses since the crash is it time to consider buying in?


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## Fidgety (28 Feb 2020)

In a word, yes. If you have a long term timeline, won’t lie awake at night worrying and select a basket of strong companies, my sense is that you will do well.

I have been waiting for a pull back on some good companies that I want to add to my portfolio and will do so next week. That said, there will likely be a lot of volatility. I can’t time it but a 10 to 15% discount seems a good long term opportunity. 

Just my 2 cents.


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## Daddy Ireland (28 Feb 2020)

Nouriel Roubini on Coronavirus: "This Crisis Will Spill Over and Result in a Disaster"
					

Economist Nouriel Roubini correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis. Now, he believes that stock markets will plunge by 30 to 40 percent because of the coronavirus. And that Trump will lose his re-election bid.




					www.spiegel.de


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## Daddy Ireland (28 Feb 2020)

I am 100% cash in my pension and 90% in my wifes pension as of Feb 8th.    Going with Roubinis assessment and waiting for a re entry point to 60% to 70% equities.


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## settlement (29 Feb 2020)

100% cash here having sold out last year. Will buy in maybe next week, will dollar cost average. I usually DCA on a dip, but if the market is strong I just dump it all in


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Feb 2020)

Your brave Settlement.   Economic impact only starting.  Oil prices will fall further.


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## Vendissimo (29 Feb 2020)

Not wishing to sound like a doomsayer we could be facing unprecedented turmoil and not just in the markets


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Feb 2020)

Absolutely unfortunately agreed.


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## Brendan Burgess (29 Feb 2020)

When will you all ever learn that you cannot time the markets?

I can say with certainty that there will be big gains and big falls.


I have no idea if the market will fall further next week or if it will recover strongly.

In the future, there will be crises, political upheavals and wars.  There will be booms and busts.

That is all you know on earth and all you need to know.


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Feb 2020)

I just timed the markets Brendan.  Got into cash early Feb.  I know I wont get it quite so right going back in.


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## Brendan Burgess (29 Feb 2020)

And the people who bought your shares also timed the market. 

I could assert “the market will recover next week” and I might be right. But it would just be luck. 

Getting it right means nothing.


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Feb 2020)

'Getting it right means nothing".  Not getting into a discussion on that statement Brendan other than saying for a couple nearing retirement timing it right means peace of mind for one thing.


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## Fidgety (29 Feb 2020)

In truth, Daddy, you got lucky and it’s unlikely you timed the bottom. Getting back in will require the same luck.

On the other hand, if you sold because you believed the stocks were overvalued or you want to change your portfolio selection, that might have been good judgement.

Meanwhile, you will need similar luck to jump back in or you’ll simply buy next week because you judge stocks are cheap.


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Feb 2020)

Actually selling out in early Feb I felt strongly that the virus would have a big impact on the markets so for now I timed the top of the market.  I lnow I wont time it so well going back in.   But this is going to have a huge economic impact as per Nourini so I will watch and wait patiently.


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## Fidgety (29 Feb 2020)

I felt the same but saw no benefit in selling out other than to temporarily make me feel better. The investments are 19 plus years old for the most part with occasional top ups on major pullbacks, the last being late 2018. As I have 10 years to go before I retire, I’ll take the long view. Each to their own with the utmost respect. 

It’s my view that not looking at them too often, avoiding impulse and emotion, and getting on with my life helps me sleep better.

Leaving aside the capital appreciation, I’m hoping for a 4% yield to help finance my retirement. I might try to retire early but I worry I might rust.

Given that you’re closer to retirement, it’s understandable that you booked some gains but in the end, you will most likely jump back in.


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Feb 2020)

The Fed or powers that be were in operation on the markets between 8.15pm Irish time and closing bell yesterday.   Big swing occurred.   Next week Fed will reduce rates which will only temporarily halt the slide in my opinion.


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## Fidgety (29 Feb 2020)

Humpty Dumpty with the fake tan and camel hair cannot afford any market pull back in the year of his re election. He incorrectly judges the performance of the economy on the stock market. Add in a touch of emotional instability and we have all the ingredients for ‘interference’ in the market from Fed stimulation, to leaning on Corps for massive share buy backs, to talking it up.

I read this morning that he’s calling the virus a ‘hoax’. Now that’s scary.

Efforts were made to establish a floor on Friday. Next week and coming weeks will be volatile but the thrust for green will be immense.


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## cremeegg (29 Feb 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> When will you all ever learn that you cannot time the markets?
> 
> I can say with certainty that there will be big gains and big falls.



But usually we dont know when these big gains and big falls occur.

Now we do know that a big fall occurred last week.

While I have absolutely no idea which way the market will go next week, I do know which way it went last week.

We can definitively say that now is a better time to invest than a week ago. I have no idea if now is a better time to invest than next week, but don't underestimate the advantage of knowing that now is better than last week.


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## DK123 (29 Feb 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> When will you all ever learn that you cannot time the markets?
> 
> I can say with certainty that there will be big gains and big falls.
> 
> ...


There is a saying "if we look back at the past we can see glimmers of the future"which might sway the odds of our having a little bit of knowledge of the behaviour of future markets  i think.


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## noproblem (29 Feb 2020)

Don't worry too much about the Corona virus as its been made in China and won't last long


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Feb 2020)

Good luck everyone:









						Markets expected to fall further as coronavirus hits China's economy
					

Manufacturing production levels in world’s second largest economy dropped to record lows in February




					www.theguardian.com


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## Gordon Gekko (29 Feb 2020)

Daddy Ireland said:


> Good luck everyone:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I’ve always thought that allowing media hysteria to dictate my investment strategy would be a novel approach.

Having said that, I think I’ll stick with the current plan which is to add as much as I can to my global equity portfolio every month, aggressively pay down debt, and tune out the media noise.


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Feb 2020)

News or media noise is what drives the markets.  Chinese economy is big news and really drives the markets especially when it's contracting.   24 provinces still closed in China which drive 80% of it's GDP.   By the way, South Korea has just closed its Hyundai factory production in South Korea after worker tests positive.   Yes China will get going again and the world will get going again.  A .50% reduction on US interest rates loom on Monday to help offset this Chinese news. If US cannot contain the virus well I cannot but see Roubini's prediction coming to pass and we will see Dow at 20,000.


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## Oisin19 (29 Feb 2020)

As you said above, China and the world will get going again and things will recover. This is what always happens.

IMO the only reason that someone would go to cash with the intention of buying back in at a lower price is to make a few quick pounds on the difference. Granted maybe your financial plan requires you to take these risks for higher returns to meet your needs in the future. 

If not, your overall investment strategy needs to be reviewed as you shouldn’t have to do it this way.


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Feb 2020)

FINAL POST ON THREAD:

Fergal19.  My investment strategy was not to jump out and jump back in quickly.   I luckily saw this coming.  Yes I have saved 10k by jumping out when I did.  Near retirement and need to sleep easy at night with our retirement pots.  Glad to be out as believe Roubini's outlook will come to pass.  I'll stay in cash as long as this scary virus is about the world.  Only when I think things look brighter will I re-enter.


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## Brendan Burgess (1 Mar 2020)

Did you have to pay CGT on the gains?


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## SoylentGreen (1 Mar 2020)

As I write the Dow Futures are showing green. However as news emerges today this could easily change. Late on Friday there were some buybacks about 45 minutes before the markets closed.
I am still tracking a couple of shares and will buy when I feel my price is right. Like Daddy Ireland I won't get my timing right but I will know that I am buying at much lower prices than were available last Friday week.
I will then sit back and take the dividends. If the markets return to pre Corona levels I may take some profits and sell again or I may not.
I am of the age where I can not hold long term, so I trade differently. Short to medium.

(Incidentally, I also stocked up on some pasta and rice during the week and avoided the crowds that are queing outside the supermarkets this morning)


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## Fidgety (1 Mar 2020)

I think that’s a very sensible strategy and one that I follow for the most part with a longer time horizon. Even if you’re closer to retirement, you can still stay long for the most part and use dividends/disposals to top up your pension. It’s whatever you’re comfortable with that matters.

And so, let me get this right ..... you’ve started the panic buying this morning? I better go now and stock up


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## Fidgety (1 Mar 2020)

That should have had a smiley face


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## cremeegg (1 Mar 2020)

Daddy Ireland said:


> Only when I think things look brighter will I re-enter.



Unless you spot that point before the market does you will be too late.


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## carefree1974 (1 Mar 2020)

Daddy Ireland said:


> FINAL POST ON THREAD:
> 
> Fergal19.  My investment strategy was not to jump out and jump back in quickly.   I luckily saw this coming.  Yes I have saved 10k by jumping out when I did.  Near retirement and need to sleep easy at night with our retirement pots.  Glad to be out as believe Roubini's outlook will come to pass.  I'll stay in cash as long as this scary virus is about the world.  Only when I think things look brighter will I re-enter.



What will be your tax liability on any gains you made? Will that tax hit not negate any saving on the price drop.


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## SoylentGreen (2 Mar 2020)

Lots of green at opening of Ftse this morning.


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## Brendan Burgess (2 Mar 2020)

Guys

As far as I know most of us are long term buy and hold investors.  Some believe that they can identify tops and bottoms. 

But I don't see any point in posting about today's rise or fall.   It's just noise in the thread and distracts from the underlying discussion. 

Brendan


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## aristotle (2 Mar 2020)

I won't retire for nearly 30 years so this is all just noise, unless you are near to retirement just ignore and carry on.

I am going to do an AVC soon for the 2019 tax year and will be glad to be buying on a small downturn but in the context of 30 more years of market ups and downs it really is irrelevant.


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## Bronco Lane (2 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> As far as I know most of us are long term buy and hold investors. Some believe that they can identify tops and bottoms.
> 
> But I don't see any point in posting about today's rise or fall. It's just noise in the thread and distracts from the underlying discussion.


Did you not have a post some time back about shorting bitcoin. If I remember correctly your exit price was around $3000. How is this different from trying to identify tops and bottoms?

There was also this famous Youtube where you suggested that we all fill our shoes with bank shares. That YouTube was broadcast in 2008. That was 12 years ago. Would being a long term investor in bank shares made someone money between 2008 and today?  Would it have made someone between 2006 and today?

Was your RTE interview suggestion to "fill our shoes" also just noise at that point in time.









						Brendan Burgess, askaboutmoney.com on banks and shares, RTE News, 16 Sep 2008
					

"Irish banks are very well regulated, Irish banks are very sound..... we're going to look back in a few times at the state of Irish banks [and ask] how did w...




					www.youtube.com


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## SlugBreath (2 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> As far as I know most of us are long term buy and hold investors. Some believe that they can identify tops and bottoms.
> 
> But I don't see any point in posting about today's rise or fall. It's just noise in the thread and distracts from the underlying discussion.



The title of the post is Time to Buy In.  Why should those of us who like to trade short term be excluded from the discussion? It is your site Brendan and you can do what you like but I for one like to read and understand how other people trade.
I found it fascinating to see one particular Irish share that is quoted on the LSE dip to a price of £25.85 at one point on Friday....then on opening this morning went as high as £27.29 and is already down to £26 in the space of a few hours.  You can bet that many people are making money on the intra day ups and downs of these shares.


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## Brendan Burgess (2 Mar 2020)

Bronco Lane said:


> Did you not have a post some time back about shorting bitcoin. If I remember correctly your exit price was around $3000. How is this different from trying to identify tops and bottoms?



Hi Bronco

It's very different. 

The stock market is about shares in companies which have earnings.  It's very difficult to value them.  But they have some value.

Bitcoin is not a share. It has no earnings. It has no value.   If people are prepared to buy it from me for $14,000 , I was prepared to sell it to them. 

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (2 Mar 2020)

Bronco Lane said:


> There was also this famous Youtube where you suggested that we all fill our shoes with bank shares



Did you listen to it? I said "bank and other shares" .  The Irish stock market is up quite a bit since 2008.

But it was a mistake to answer the question.  I was asked to explain the bank guarantee and should it be increased from €20k.   That bit is always omitted by the people quoting it.  I said that Irish banks were regulated but not guaranteed and while I didn't expect them to fail, they should be allowed to fail. And the guarantee should not be increased beyond €20k.

You will see the full context of what I said about investing and property in this thread





__





						Key Post - What Brendan Burgess has actually said about property, prices and borrowing
					

Many people are claiming that I am a “Vested Interest” who cheered on the property bubble. Most of the quotes are selective and out of context.  They ignore the frequent comments I have made about house prices falling.   This very long thread is an effort to set the record straight.  In...



					www.askaboutmoney.com
				




I have learnt from that mistake. With the wisdom of hindsight,  I would now say "That is a much more complicated issue and we would need a full programme to discuss it."  I have always suggested holding a diversified portfolio  of shares for the long term and fully acknowledged that one or two of them would go to zero. 

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (2 Mar 2020)

SlugBreath said:


> Why should those of us who like to trade short term be excluded from the discussion?



Hi SlugBreath 

This thread is about "Time to Buy In" which really is about long term investing.  

Most people understand that short-term trading is almost guaranteed to be loss making.  But if you think that the current turmoil makes it worth discussing, feel free to start a separate thread on it.

Brendan


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## Fella (2 Mar 2020)

SlugBreath said:


> The title of the post is Time to Buy In.  Why should those of us who like to trade short term be excluded from the discussion? It is your site Brendan and you can do what you like but I for one like to read and understand how other people trade.
> I found it fascinating to see one particular Irish share that is quoted on the LSE dip to a price of £25.85 at one point on Friday....then on opening this morning went as high as £27.29 and is already down to £26 in the space of a few hours.  You can bet that many people are making money on the intra day ups and downs of these shares.



Whats the point in talking about whether the stock market will rise or fall when no one knows ? It would be an interesting conversation if you could learn something to help future predict stock market movements but it would just be a case of one person saying " stock markets are going to drop " versus some other people saying " lets buy the dip" , it is what it is , all the news is in the public domain . Some people are happy selling last week , some are happy buying today , both think they are getting value , its a zero sum game and there is no real right or wrong. Speculation on short term movements is pointless . 

I still think Brendan is wrong about Bitcoin but he can't see the errors in his ways  eventually he will realise he is wrong and Bitcoin or anything else is always worth whatever the market is willing to pay for it.


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## Brendan Burgess (2 Mar 2020)

Fella said:


> its a zero sum game



Hi Fella

It's only a zero sum game before costs. 

After costs, the vast majority of day traders lost money. 

In a rising market, they tend to appear profitable because they are generally in the market.  But that is not because of their trading.

Brendan


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## Fella (2 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi Fella
> 
> It's only a zero sum game before costs.
> 
> ...



Yeah why point wasn't exact , I was more referencing that for everyone buying thinking they are getting value there are others selling at the same price thinking they are getting value. The conversation on "time to buy in" is absolutely ridiculous to get the opinion of a few hundred people on a forum about the future direction of world markets that not even experts can predict what way will move. The price is the price because the weight of money on each side has agreed this is the current price with all available knowledge , buying or selling now is par value minus costs.


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## Sarenco (2 Mar 2020)

Well, the S&P500 gained 4.6% by close today.

Dead cat bounce?  We’ll see.  

But it shows how utterly futile it is to try and time the markets.

Just decide on an allocation between the major asset classes that’s appropriate to your circumstances and stick with it regardless of what’s happening.


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## Fidgety (3 Mar 2020)

We’re in for a roller coaster ride. Some enjoy such volatility and profit from trading. I have neither the time nor the smarts and wish them well. To my mind, it’s an altogether different mindset and good luck and best wishes. For others, a broad portfolio of great companies offers long term shelter, earnings and capital appreciation. There’s no wrong or right way. 

The many different views here make for great reading, reflection and occasionally unsettle a preconceived notion. Such debate is both interesting and refreshing. That many of you give of your time and thought so generously is heartwarming. I have little expertise to offer but I am now determined to give what little I have as part of a generous community who have taught me much.

So I’m hoping we can continue to share our thoughts on this investment forum and some of our experiences. And I’m grateful to all of you who express your opinions.


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## Fella (3 Mar 2020)

How much was "wiped onto the stock market " today 
Funny how the stock market just rises but when it falls it's all dramatic .


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## SlugBreath (3 Mar 2020)

But....if you had bought in last Friday....you would be doing OK.   My pharma share has already gone back up over £1. Now I can take a quick profit of a few grand or not bother.....



Fella said:


> How much was "wiped onto the stock market " today
> Funny how the stock market just rises but when it falls it's all dramatic .


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## Fella (3 Mar 2020)

SlugBreath said:


> But....if you had bought in last Friday....you would be doing OK.   My pharma share has already gone back up over £1. Now I can take a quick profit of a few grand or not bother.....



You took a gamble that paid off , but you might not be so lucky next time , short term your result is more likely down to chance .


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## SlugBreath (3 Mar 2020)

Fella said:


> You took a gamble that paid off , but you might not be so lucky next time , short term your result is more likely down to chance .



You just won't accept that people out there can trade differently and be successful, can you?


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## Sunny (3 Mar 2020)

SlugBreath said:


> You just won't accept that people out there can trade differently and be successful, can you?



You didn't trade successfully. When you placed the trade, what was the probability of the share you bought on Friday falling on Monday compared to the probability of the share you bought rising? I bet you don't know. What made you decide that the share represented value on Friday that wasn't there on Thursday? I bet you that your line of thinking was the share has fallen x% so can't fall much more. That's not trading. It was a short term bet that benefited from high volatility but that volatility could just as easily gone against you. If you think you can make money trading short term volatility on a daily basis then good luck to you....Do I think you can compete with computers and high frequency traders making money on a daily basis for a sustained period? Not a chance.


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## SlugBreath (3 Mar 2020)

Sunny said:


> You didn't trade successfully


I did actually.


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## Sunny (3 Mar 2020)

SlugBreath said:


> I did actually.



No you think you did. There is a huge difference.


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## Fella (3 Mar 2020)

SlugBreath said:


> You just won't accept that people out there can trade differently and be successful, can you?



Well certainly not on the back of one successful trade . It's very hard to beat the market , keep going for a few years and see how you get on . 
My own history is I've managed to exploit the tiniest edges and make money in various different sectors. I've been around some geniuses who could find and exploit the smallest edges , we all looked at the stock market and couldn't find any edge. I would say 99% of people who claim to make money trading are lying and the 1% that actually do probably don't talk about because they don't want to give the edge they have up.  
Unless you have information that is not in the public domain forget it .


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## elacsaplau (3 Mar 2020)

Sunny said:


> You didn't trade successfully.



Sunny,

Is your goal to have the most ironic username in internet history or something?

Recently, on another thread, I took a short-term position and I labelled it gambling. You chastised me for my use of the term!

Here, SlugBreath prefers to use the term "trading" and you tell him he's gambling.

Wouldn't something like Mr. Consistency be a better _nom du clavier_? 

Just kidding...…..well, a little - every joke is a bit of a joke, etc.


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## joe sod (3 Mar 2020)

Fella said:


> How much was "wiped onto the stock market " today
> Funny how the stock market just rises but when it falls it's all dramatic .



Markets climb the stairs but descend  the elevator, is a common financial saying, its a reflection of the fact that fear is a much more powerful emotion than greed. These emotions have speeded up with technology, so last week was the fastest sell off in financial history.


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## SlugBreath (3 Mar 2020)

Sunny said:


> If you think you can make money trading short term volatility on a daily basis then good luck to you..



I have been doing it successfully for 20 years. Unlike you I will put my cards on the table and even name the shares that I have traded if allowed.
I only trade three shares and have traded these three shares for nearly 20 years. I know these 3 companies inside out.

I have bought each of these shares and sold each of these shares dozens of times. So I am a short term trader but have held these shares on and off for 20 years so am I a long term holder? I try and buy on weakness in the price and sell when they rise. I also pay close attention to the ex dividend dates and try to hold the shares on these dates so I can collect. One of these shares pays a dividend 4 times a year so with this one it can be difficult.

Last Friday I bought one on weakness and sold on Monday and made some decent money. This evening the Dow has fallen back so I will have a look at see how the markets open tomorrow, I may even buy the same share again that I bought on Friday and sold on Monday. Then again I may not.




Fella said:


> Well certainly not on the back of one successful trade . It's very hard to beat the market , keep going for a few years and see how you get on .



It wasn't one successful trade. It was one of dozens made over the years.     I admit it has become more difficult sinceCampbell O'Connor ceased trading and my costs with my new broker have risen substantially.
I am being honest.


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Mar 2020)

SlugBreath said:


> I admit it has become more difficult sinceCampbell O'Connor ceased trading and my costs with my new broker have risen substantially.



I don't understand that at all.

Campbell O'Connor had very high costs. 

So you should be making even more money now if you switched from them to an online broker. 

Brendan


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## Sarenco (3 Mar 2020)

joe sod said:


> Markets climb the stairs but descend  the elevator, is a common financial saying


Really?  

I have never heard that phrase before.  So I googled it.  Nada.  Apparently the internet has never heard the phrase either.  


joe sod said:


> These emotions have speeded up with technology, so last week was the fastest sell off in financial history.


And yet we’re living through the longest bull market in history.  For the first time ever the S&P500 has enjoyed over 10 years without a drawdown of 20% or more to any market close.

Where is the evidence that technology is increasing market volatility?


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## joe sod (3 Mar 2020)

Sarenco said:


> I have never heard that phrase before. So I googled it. Nada. Apparently the internet has never heard the phrase either.



just google "markets climb the stairs" and there are numerous different references to it, Im sure you have heard of it yourself too but you insist on nit picking my posts, Im paraphrasing its not an exact quote but of course you knew that









						Stocks Take the Stairs Up and Elevator Down | MarketStrats Blog
					

Stocks tend to drop significantly faster than they rise. Understand why this happens and what you can do about it.




					marketstrats.com
				




just one of many different results, I dont understand what point you are trying to make


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## Sarenco (3 Mar 2020)

No, I’ve never heard that phrase before.  I googled exactly what you said was “a common financial saying” and got no results.

Regardless, can you point to anything to evidence that technology has increased market volatility?  And even if it has, what, if anything, should an individual do about it?


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## Fidgety (4 Mar 2020)

Technology has played an important role in market volatility in that automated trade executions occur more speedily hastening movements in early and after market trades. Moreover, these trades accelerate with fear to the downside more than they do to the upside. Euphoria is no match for terror.

Technology stocks tend to take the biggest and hardest wallop during volatility. That’s because most of their value is linked to what they will become in the future which none of us know yet. Similarly, the FANG stocks represent a large portion of the valuation gains and therefore, any faltering momentum or external event, hammers harder and drags other tech companies with them.

And so, on what can the individual do? In a word, sfa on the sophisticated electronic machinations driven by the professionals but we can take a view on the unregulated tech monopolies growth potential and all that comes with it. Mindful of the swings, focused on living our lives, we can’t time it but we can ride it.

Good value is a whisper away from being great. 
That is why, in answer to the original post, it may soon be time to invest at a level you believe represents good value. 
I have a number of stocks inventoried which are good value tonight. I have my price, given all of my research, and when they hit my number, I’ll fill my boots at the price I think represents great value. And then I’ll forget about them, save some more and go again at the next pullback. I will certainly not be able to time the market and I will sleep soundly and not worry if the price retreats further.


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## SlugBreath (4 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> I don't understand that at all.
> 
> Campbell O'Connor had very high costs.
> 
> ...


I negotiated a flat fee of £50 for all my sells irrespective of the amount of the trade.


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## Brendan Burgess (4 Mar 2020)

OK
That was a very good deal. 

It surprises me given that you could not do it online.

Brendan


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## SlugBreath (4 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> OK
> That was a very good deal.
> 
> It surprises me given that you could not do it online.
> ...



I'm still old school. Liked paper contract notes and share certs. Always preferred the phone. Ken in COC was great. I could do a trade in seconds with him. He had access to a range of market makers. I am now with Davy, have to log in, get text to my phone, do trade myself and charged half percent for the privilege.


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## Sarenco (4 Mar 2020)

Fidgety said:


> Technology has played an important role in market volatility in that automated trade executions occur more speedily hastening movements in early and after market trades.


Ok but can you point to any actual evidence that market volatility (as opposed to efficiency) has increased?  Obviously there are two sides to every trade.

The standard deviation of the US stock market, for example, has been lower for the last 10 years than its long-run average.


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## Fidgety (4 Mar 2020)

Sure Sarenco.

Google an article in Wired entitled ‘How technology unsettled the market’ which gives an interesting insight.

Human judgement cannot compete with computer algorithms in terms of speed of execution on both sides of the trade. It can therefore act to hasten reactionary decision making. That’s my only point, that the swings in either direction can be fast and significant. That in turn can drive irrational responses.


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## Sarenco (4 Mar 2020)

Ok, I’ve read the article -








						How Technology Unsettled the Stock Market
					

The rise of exchange-traded funds and algorithm-driven trading likely contributed to February's wild stock swings.




					www.google.ie
				




It doesn’t contain any evidence that technology has in fact increased volatility in the stock market.

Sorry but I don’t see any facts that back up this assertion.


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## Fidgety (4 Mar 2020)

Sarenco said:


> Ok, I’ve read the article -
> 
> 
> 
> ...


To your point, maybe there are no facts in the strict sense of the word.


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## joe sod (4 Mar 2020)

Sarenco said:


> Regardless, can you point to anything to evidence that technology has increased market volatility?



Nobody mentioned anything about volatility, except yourself, we simply stated that the speed of the sell offs is much faster today because of technology, that is a different thing to volatility in my mind. Volatility is the ups and downs in the market, so your point is that that has reduced in the last decade, no argument there maybe it has. What we are saying is that when those ups and downs happen (of course not every single up and down but significant ones) then the rise or fall is much bigger and faster especially the falls . To use scientific rather than financial jargon (same concept though) there may be less waves in the market but the amplitude of those waves has increased.


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## Gordon Gekko (4 Mar 2020)

Someone buys a stock on Friday, flips it on this week, makes a few bob, and he/she thinks they’re Warren Buffett. It’s gas.


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## Marantz (4 Mar 2020)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Someone buys a stock on Friday, flips it on this week, makes a few bob, and he/she thinks they’re Warren Buffett. It’s gas.


You would like to think that remarks like that, would have no place in a thread in the investments forum.


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## banchang (4 Mar 2020)

SlugBreath said:


> I'm still old school. Liked paper contract notes and share certs. Always preferred the phone. Ken in COC was great. I could do a trade in seconds with him. He had access to a range of market makers. I am now with Davy, have to log in, get text to my phone, do trade myself and charged half percent for the privilege.



If you're chasing thin gains in the same 3 stocks, and doing it frequently, why not go with a low cost online execution only broker ? Davy are one of the most expensive ?


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## Fidgety (4 Mar 2020)

Marantz said:


> You would like to think that remarks like that, would have no place in a thread in the investments forum.



To be honest, it gave me a laugh on a tough day. There’s no right and no wrong and to my mind, no offence.


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## Brendan Burgess (4 Mar 2020)

Marantz said:


> You would like to think that remarks like that, would have no place in a thread in the investments forum.



Hi Marantz

We have to be open.

When guys claim that they are making pots of money trading stocks using expensive stockbrokers, my hand hovers over the delete button.

So while I don't like posts like that, we leave them there. 


Brendan


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## SlugBreath (5 Mar 2020)

banchang said:


> If you're chasing thin gains in the same 3 stocks, and doing it frequently, why not go with a low cost online execution only broker ? Davy are one of the most expensive ?


Maybe you are right. I have circa £95k on each trade so my gains are not so thin...... to me anyhow.
It may be because Davy are local. I have toyed with doing smaller trades on Interactive Brokers, however when I first started trading I made some losses trading different shares. I find self discipline my biggest problem.  Trying to stick with my 3 shares is difficult enough.  There are a few high yielding shares in the UK housebuilding sector where I made some good money and I have often been tempted here.
I am happy with my profits and I think I have a combination of being a long term holder of three shares but still trading these on a fairly regular basis.


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## Brendan Burgess (5 Mar 2020)

SlugBreath said:


> I have a combination of being a long term holder of three shares but still trading these on a fairly regular basis.



So you are very different from the normal day trader 
You hold positions for the long term - which is what is recommended here. 
You use an expensive broker - understandable for long term positions. 
You have a complex model for separating out the profits you make from trading from the profits you make from being a long term holder of the shares. 


Brendan


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## Sarenco (5 Mar 2020)

joe sod said:


> Nobody mentioned anything about volatility, except yourself


Really?


Fidgety said:


> Technology has played an important role in market volatility


Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market.


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## jim (5 Mar 2020)

Guys,

What is the advice for someone with a modest pension pot 90% in equities that has lost 15% in the last week or so? Age 32.

Stay the course and leave it as is or reconfigure such that % in equities is greatly reduced?

My view is that the virus is going to get worse and so mkts will fall some more. Does that mean i should quickly move into cash for example?


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## Sunny (5 Mar 2020)

jim said:


> Guys,
> 
> What is the advice for someone with a modest pension pot 90% in equities that has lost 15% in the last week or so? Age 32.
> 
> ...



Absolutely not. Leave it where it is and forget about it. If your pension fund has dropped 15% this week, you risk missing the recovery when it does happen. And it will happen. The biggest risk when markets are falling is that people panic and sell. You have a investment horison or over 30 years, not weeks or months.....


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## Fidgety (5 Mar 2020)

You’re in an enviable position Jim because you have a ton of time to enjoy the benefits of long-term capital appreciation. In times of volatility, none of us can predict the wild swings and the recovery generally increases much quicker than the falls.

Volatility is with us for a while until there’s clarity on beating this virus, business returns to normal and economies resume in full.
Most of us invested in equities, through pensions or personally, have seen reductions of the manner you described. I haven’t looked and won’t. To be fair, I don’t look following new highs either.

Review what you have in equites every once in a while to determine if your okay with your original criteria for selection, change as you see fit into better opportunities, and keep on investing for the long term.
For example, the travel industry is taking a hammering right now. Worse may follow. I seriously doubt that people won’t travel or that growth will not return in the future. I can’t say when but I think it unlikely.


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## Sarenco (5 Mar 2020)

I think it's interesting that current global market levels (MSCI World), even after the recent drop, are still ~24% higher than the market close on 24 December 2018.


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## Brendan Burgess (5 Mar 2020)

Sarenco said:


> I think it's interesting that current global market levels (MSCI World), even after the recent drop, are still ~24% higher than the market close on 24 December 2018.



And I am sure that if you look back at the comments at the time, many analysts were saying that the market was overvalued. 

Brendan


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## RedOnion (5 Mar 2020)

Sarenco said:


> I think it's interesting that current global market levels (MSCI World), even after the recent drop, are still ~24% higher than the market close on 24 December 2018.


I'm tempted to report your post for taking the thread off topic. There's no place for common sense and fact based observations here. Maybe aim for a sense of urgency and panic in your posts. It'd help to mention a few gambling wins.


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## Sarenco (5 Mar 2020)

I also think it's interesting that the EMU Government Bond Index rose by 4% over the last 7 days, suggesting that it still makes sense to diversify across the two major asset classes to moderate volatility within a portfolio.


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## joe sod (5 Mar 2020)

Sarenco said:


> I think it's interesting that current global market levels (MSCI World), even after the recent drop, are still ~24% higher than the market close on 24 December 2018.



yes but talk about cherry picking data to suit an agenda, we all know that 24 December 2018 was the exact trough of the last big sell off, the worst December in financial history. Just to add context though the MSCI world index is at the same level now as it was on 26 August 2019, 1 April 2019, 1 Oct 2018, 25 Dec 2017. In other words its been oscillating around the current level for the last 2 years with a severe sell off in December 2018 followed by an equally rapid recovery.


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## Sarenco (5 Mar 2020)

@joe sod

The statistic simply shows how strongly the markets recovered after the last correction.

But you’re right - I do have an agenda.  I want to demonstrate how futile it is to try and time the market. 

The idea that returns oscillate around some specific level demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of how markets work.


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## jim (5 Mar 2020)

@Sunny just to challenge your advice and I am a bit concerned to be frank which is why I am looking for advice.

If my personal outlook is that the markets will fall further would it not be wise to act now to protect my fund and move frim equities to cash? 

Then, when my outlook becomes positive, buy back into equities. Therefore reducing the downside effect on my fund and getting back in when i believe the tide is rising.

Surely this is much better than doing nothing, as you suggest? I dont understand this advice unless I am missing something.

Of course my investment horizon is 30 odd years but that shouldnt discourage me from protecting my funds at certain times and investing in equities at other times to take a more bold approach.

Given the currebt crisis surely it makes sense to get out of equities (if my own personal outlook is such that itll get worse)?


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## Sarenco (5 Mar 2020)

jim said:


> @Sunny
> If my personal outlook is that the markets will fall further would it not be wise to act now to protect my fund and move frim equities to cash?


At any given point in time, stock prices represent the consensus view of value as determined by all market participants.

Have you any reason to believe you know something the market has yet to discover?

To put it another way, do you think you have an edge over all other market participants?

Remember: if it’s in the press, it’s in the price.

If you do go to cash, how will you know when to get back into stocks?  

My advice is not to try and time the market.  Set your allocation as between stocks and bonds according to your need, ability and willingness to take risks.

And then stay the course.


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## Fella (5 Mar 2020)

jim said:


> @Sunny just to challenge your advice and I am a bit concerned to be frank which is why I am looking for advice.
> 
> If my personal outlook is that the markets will fall further would it not be wise to act now to protect my fund and move frim equities to cash?
> 
> ...



Hmmmm it's hard to answer this , if you can't invest now because you think you know the way the market it going your quite likely IMO to try time marker again at a future date.
If your investment horizon is really 30 years then your going to have a few crashes in there , listen losing money is as much a skill as making money , not everyone can deal deal with losing money .your going to have times in the future where your going to see your shares crash , how will your react then ? 
If you want to be a trader have a go at that for a year or 2 put a % of your wealth in and start shortening if you think markets will crash further you'll quickly realize your clueless to what way markets are going to go short term, or there's a very very slim chance you have a talent and go on to be a successful trader .

As Buffet said you wouldn't buy a farm and get it valued everyday , so don't buy shares and check value of them daily cause youll go mad and make bad decisions . 

If you can't face throwing everything in now , you could try average in over next couple of years buying a set % each month , mathematically I think odds are that time in market beats timing but for a compromise it's not bad . I buy monthly myself but that's because I cream off savings but initial lump was in one go , actually initially I averaged in till someone showed me research to say you fair worse , maybe @Sarenco .


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## Ceist Beag (6 Mar 2020)

Jim if you change your thinking around a bit you will see that a dropping market for someone in your position is actually a good thing.
Let's say you are someone who has a standing order to buy a certain item each month (let's pretend it's oil and that you are an airline). If the price of oil falls, you're not going to phone your supplier and say that you want to cancel that standing order as the oil is too cheap, are you? If anything you might be encouraged to stock up now (but that would be trying to time things so let's discount that for now).
As the market continues to drop you are buying in at a better price. By selling now and moving to cash you would be crystalising the losses already incurred.
A good book to read on the subject is Millionaire Teacher but also have a read of this post.


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## joe sod (7 Mar 2020)

Ceist Beag said:


> A good book to read on the subject is Millionaire Teacher but also have a read of this post.



*Investment makeover for 35 year old living abroad*

very interesting reading this thread from 2014, alot of very good advice on it. However what stood out then was the aftermath and trauma from the financial crash only a few years beforehand. Many posters were against investing in property then, and were favourable to investing in international equities . It is obvious why this was the case now, property was still in the doldrums along with irish equities whereas international equities had staged a substantial recovery by then led by the US markets.
Now in 2020 the US markets have been on a stormer, international equities (outside of US) have gone no where and only had a good run in the last 6 months which has been again eradicated again by the corona virus panic. Irish equities have similarly gone no where ( brexit being the big overhang since 2016) The only stand out has been property, but property is no longer cheap, however it is unlikely to crash again because of the shortages. However it looks like there will be more taxes on investment properties with all the noises coming from the politicians.
If property was a stock that could be traded its value would have dropped 10% following the election of SF and another 13% now with the corona virus panic, because it takes so long to transact a property none of these fleeting worries are reflected in the price of houses until a 2008 rolls along, then all of these issues get reflected . In other words all of the factors that affect stocks immediately also affect the long term value of property, property is not independent of stock markets in the long term.


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## settlement (9 Mar 2020)

Welcome to black Monday folks. There's blood in the gutters on Wall Street...


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## galway_blow_in (9 Mar 2020)

No point in selling now, only wish I'd bought more puts last Monday


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## Gordon Gekko (9 Mar 2020)

No, it’s probably a decent time to buy, assuming that you’ve a decent time-horizon. And to put my money where my mouth is, I’ve decided to make my 2020 AVC today.


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## RedOnion (9 Mar 2020)

Gordon Gekko said:


> And to put my money where my mouth is, I’ve decided to make my 2020 AVC today.


I paid mine last week, but hoping it's dealt with at the usual inefficient pace that they deal with such an 'unusual transaction', so should be invested sometime later this week or next.


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## Fidgety (9 Mar 2020)

A delay might be a silver lining with the Oil carnage added to the mix.


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## Odea (13 Mar 2020)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I’ve always thought that allowing media hysteria to dictate my investment strategy would be a novel approach.
> 
> Having said that, I think I’ll stick with the current plan which is to add as much as I can to my global equity portfolio every month, aggressively pay down debt, and tune out the media noise


Are you still following this plan?


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## Techhead (13 Mar 2020)

Will the corona virus be still around next year.....unlikely. In that case the current market volatility could and I emphasize could be a good buying opp


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## Gordon Gekko (13 Mar 2020)

Odea said:


> Are you still following this plan?



Yep, absolutely


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## Gunnerbar (14 Mar 2020)

It looks like, I've been told, that we're heading into a recession. The markers for this have been hit. 

I'm fairly green about all this but wanted to guage what people think here.

I was very inclined to liquify my pension and come into the market again when theres an upturn using technicalities in the market. But as I said I don't have the confidence to do so yet. I contacted my pension company with someone I know but she impressed on me that I should stay the course and just wait for the market to recover. That seems quite reasonable advice but if there's chance of coming out now and avoiding more loss without penalty or much risk then I would go for it.  My question is what are my options. Ideally I  would like to step out of the market until it recovers knowing this is going to get a lot worse.

Another question is what should I do with a reasonable sized lump sum. If the recession hits and it looks like we're on the way should I wait till it hits and try and time the market to invest in funds.

I probably should speak with a Financial Advisor which I will do if anybody has any suggestions.

So in a nutshell

1) Should I pursue trying to liquify my pension with regard to going back in when recession lifts.
2) What products should I look at with regard to entering with a lump sum 
3) I probably should get professional advice: so if anyone has any suggestions and what prices I would be looking at for a consultation: maybe you could PM me. Would be much appreciated.

As I said I'm not that educated in the market hardly at all.

Thanks


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## RobFer (14 Mar 2020)

Gunnerbar said:


> It looks like, I've been told, that we're heading into a recession. The markers for this have been hit.
> 
> I'm fairly green about all this but wanted to guage what people think here.
> 
> ...



It is extremely hard to get the timing right. If you wanted to exit it should have done weeks ago. If the US can control it then I dont see this lasting months and months.


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## settlement (14 Mar 2020)

My meaningless two cents (as a doctor, FWIW):

1. The virus will have a huge impact on the United States due to the inability to sufficiently test and the late closing of their borders. The US cannot exert the autocratic measures that China instigated, such as mass quarantine. A vaccine is a year away at the very earliest.
2. Economic fallout will be longer-lasting than the period of virus rampancy itself. 
3. The virus is just taking a foothold in Africa and south and central america. This stepwise global transmission pattern spells bad news for supply chains and airlines etc. 
4. We haven't seen the bottom yet. My guess is SPY 2000. .
5. It will blow over. But we might see November or later before we see a bull market again.


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Mar 2020)

Guys it's very important to understand that complex markets are very difficult to forecast. 

I could put up a case for selling out now and an equally compelling case for buying now. 

The stock market usually picks up well in advance of the problem which caused the crash being resolved. 

So it will not go like this 
Day 1 WHO announces pandemic is over and Covid 19 under control
Day 2 Stockmarket begins a gradual recovery giving people time to buy back in at leisure 

It will be 
Day  1 - x :   Sudden big gains in stock market 
Media talk about dead cat bounce 
Day 1  WHO announces pandemic is over 

Brendan


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## settlement (14 Mar 2020)

I agree Brendan, but it's fun to speculate.


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Mar 2020)

Hi settlement

It may well be fun. But the confident way in which many posters are  setting out the future is very dangerous as it may cause people to make decisions which will cost them a lot. 

Brendan


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## WhiteCoat (14 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> The stock market usually picks up well in advance of the problem which caused the crash being resolved.



Hi Brendan,

I believe in that the markets are reasonably efficient. I also believe that it is very difficult to time the market. In the case of Covid 19, the market did not exhibit great foresight. In late January/early February, medics were talking about how this could get really nasty - there was a definite window between there being a clear appreciation of the risk and market reaction.


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Mar 2020)

WhiteCoat said:


> there was a definite window between there being a clear appreciation of the risk and market reaction.



I don't agree.

There is always uncertainty. 

Of course the markets read the medical reports.  But did they know that Trump would ban all travel to America?  Did they know that Italy would become the epicentre? 

There is a fantastic opportunity now, today. Unfortunately, I don't know whether that is an opportunity to buy or to sell.

I will know in three months' time. 

Brendan


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## Fidgety (14 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> I will know in three months' time.



I think you will know more in three months time.


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## SPC100 (14 Mar 2020)

We can't be definite on the future, but we can be on the past.

It is certainly a better time to buy now than it was last month.

For accumulators, Keep up whatever regular buying you had, and if you have some funds on the side, consider investing some of them.

I mainly auto-invest monthly via a pension contribution (set at the maximum allowable), I am considering changing my contributions to get all my annual contribution invested over the next few months, rather that evenly over the rest of the year. I am also considering moving some surplus cash in.


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## Fella (14 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Guys it's very important to understand that complex markets are very difficult to forecast.
> 
> I could put up a case for selling out now and an equally compelling case for buying now.
> 
> ...



I think there's a case for dollar cost averaging in times like this , if you have a lump sum split it up and invest it in 10 parts over the next year or so , I personally don't think selling is a great idea if your already invested . I also wouldn't invest in the hope of making a few quid waiting for a quick turnaround.
Although there's no harm doing it and I know people will be looking at who can create the next vaccine or whatever and try make a huge gain by guessing the right company , if it's fun and it's money you can afford to lose then go for it.


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## SPC100 (14 Mar 2020)

I have just tweaked my pension contribution to get more of it into the market sooner.

There are 10 monthly contributions left in the year. I have increased my monthly AVC amouny 2.5 times, to get my remaining annual AVC invested over the next 4 months. (and then in 4 months, I will set AVC at 0, to avoid breaching max annual limit). I want to keep my employer match every month, so I haven't changed that part.

I guess this is somewhat market timing, but it is also maximising time in market.

If it turns out that the market is still falling in 4 months, I will endeavour to put more in.


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## Gordon Gekko (14 Mar 2020)

For what it’s worth, my view on the most likely outcome is this...you put €25k into your pension fund in 2015 and invest it 100% in global equities. In 2035 you see what it’s worth and, surprise surprise, it’s worth around €100k. Your average annual return has been 7% which doubles your money every 10 years. Not wildly out of tune with the long-term average return from global equities. But over that period, Covid 19 has appeared, probably the odd war, a couple of recessions, and maybe another health or climate related crisis. Trying to time the markets is foolish. Just have a plan which is in line with your time-horizon and stick to it. “Time in the market, not timing the market”


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## Brendan Burgess (15 Mar 2020)

All discussion of whether to invest or sell shares now will be in the following thread





__





						"My shares have fallen 30% what should I do?" "Is this a good time to invest in the stock market?"
					

To save people reading through lots of posts in different threads, I am going to summarise my views and the contrary view in this thread.  There are two camps  Camp 1 believes that you cannot time the market.  In other words, it's not possible to identify whether the market is overvalued or...



					askaboutmoney.com


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