# Very low percentage of tests result in positives



## Brendan Burgess (5 Apr 2020)

From another thread about the UK

The Department of Health in Britain also said that, as of 9am today, a total of 195,524 people have been tested of which 47,806 tested positive. 

So it's 25% in the UK.  In Ireland up until recently it was 6% and now it's up to about 15% because of improved targeting. 

Seems like a very big difference. 

Do we have up to date figures for the Republic?

Brendan


----------



## Brendan Burgess (5 Apr 2020)

from last Thursday









						Q&A Covid-19 testing: How many tests have we done?
					

What happened to the goal of 15,000 tests a day and other testing questions




					www.irishtimes.com
				




Tests done: 15,000 


Last Thursday we had 3,500 positives so that would be 23% - the same as the UK. 

Where are they getting the 6% and the 15% figures from?


----------



## llgon (5 Apr 2020)

Does that article not say that there had been 30,000 tests done?


----------



## Sophrosyne (5 Apr 2020)

At the time of posting:

Total tested 30,213

Total cases 4,604

Therefore, percentage positive = 15%

Prior to the change in testing criteria, 6% of those tested were positive.


----------



## llgon (5 Apr 2020)

From the NPHET statement of Wed 25th March, at that stage there were 1,564 confirmed cases:

"Dr. Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said:

"Our data showed yesterday that only 6% of our tests so far returned positive; so for every 100 people we test we are only finding 6 people with COVID-19. In light of this, our case definition changed."





__





						Statement from the National Public Health Emergency Team - Wednesday 25 March
					

2 deaths and 235 new cases of COVID-19 confirmed.




					www.gov.ie


----------



## llgon (5 Apr 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> At the time of posting:
> 
> Total tested 30,213



That was the figure on Monday 30th

'To date, 30,213 tests have been carried out in laboratories across the country, as of midnight, Monday 30 March.'





__





						Statement from the National Public Health Emergency Team - Tuesday 31 March
					

17 deaths and 325 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland.




					www.gov.ie
				




Edited to add: the figure of 30,123 tests carried out was published in the press release above on Tues 31st


----------



## Sophrosyne (5 Apr 2020)

llgon said:


> That was the figure on Monday 30th



That's correct. There is a time lag in publishing testing and _confirmed_ cases.

Fatalities are in real time and as far as I know so are hospital and ICU admissions.


----------



## Sophrosyne (5 Apr 2020)

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre has been informed of 331 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland, *as of 1pm, Saturday 4 April*. There are now 4,604 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland.


----------



## Brendan Burgess (5 Apr 2020)

Guys - there is no need to make it personal.  

We are trying to get at the answer and not win an argument. 

Brendan


----------



## Brendan Burgess (5 Apr 2020)

FRom today

Some 37,000 tests for Covid-19 have been completed and their results returned, according to Ms O’Connor. 

Total confirmed cases 4,994

So 14%


----------



## llgon (5 Apr 2020)

Based on 1564 positives at 6% there were 26,000 tests completed and reported on 25th March.

There are 3,430 new cases since then. Going by the current figure above of 37,000 tests in total, the new cases have arisen in 11,000 tests. So 31% positive since the criteria for testing was changed.


----------



## Brendan Burgess (5 Apr 2020)

Thanks Ligon

Is this the calculation you are doing?   





It's astonishing that it has gone from 6% to 31%. 

Have they mentioned this figure officially?   I had heard a 15% figure. 

Brendan


----------



## llgon (5 Apr 2020)

Yes, that's correct Brendan. 

The figures for 25th March come from the government press release referred to earlier in the thread, I probably wasn't clear about that:





__





						Statement from the National Public Health Emergency Team - Wednesday 25 March
					

2 deaths and 235 new cases of COVID-19 confirmed.




					www.gov.ie
				




1564 cases at that stage with 6% of tests positive.

I haven't heard the figure of 31% referred to anywhere, 15% is the highest I heard before now. 

There has been a lot of talk about tests this week, but very little information about the specific number of tests being carried out and reported on.


----------



## HollowKnight (5 Apr 2020)

It's not uncommon in medicine to have false positives. 
Eg I work as optometrist. I refer about 6 out of every 100 patients for suspect glaucoma. 
Of those 6, only 1-2 people would generally be diagnosed. 

This is similar. Patients meet certain criteria for referral but do not end up being diagnosed.


----------



## seamus m (5 Apr 2020)

llgon said:


> Based on 1564 positives at 6% there were 26,000 tests completed and reported on 25th March.
> 
> There are 3,430 new cases since then. Going by the current figure above of 37,000 tests in total, the new cases have arisen in 11,000 tests. So 31% positive since the criteria for testing was changed.


You couldn't go by figures they are giving.you have only 11000 since march 25 when they said that were doing up to 4500 a day at start of week just gone down to 1500 by end .They also said first German test results were back Saturday around 2000 but for some reason didn't count them yesterday.When asked how many passed away in nursing homes they also had no idea as if


----------



## llgon (6 Apr 2020)

Dr Holohan, at the press briefing this evening, said that a precise figure for testing will be given tomorrow evening but it will be a lot bigger than 35,000.  It will be the number of tests completed as at midnight tonight.


----------

