# Will you go for a pint when restrictions are lifted?



## Bronco Lane

I like an occasional pint of Guinness. When the pubs reopen I think I would like the bar person to serve me my pint wearing some sort of surgical mask. I would be concerned that all glasses have been washed in a dishwasher rather than a quick rinse in cold water. While my pint is "resting", I think that I would like my pint to rest away from the counter.

We know that we can pick up the Covid from droplets in your eyes, nose and mouth. Is it possible to ingest it through drinking cold liquids?


----------



## odyssey06

Ingesting it via food seems low risk... probably the surface of the glass is more risky, especially as it will have condensation on it.
Be careful not to use your 'pint hand' for anything else.








						Even if a restaurant worker coughs or sneezes directly in your food, you won't catch coronavirus from eating the meal
					

"Even if a worker sneezes directly into a bowl of salad before packing it in a take-out container, as gross as it is, it's unlikely to get you sick."




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Even if the staff are wearing masks, your fellow customers won't be and you'll be sitting there for sufficient time to generate a 'close contact' unless the venue is large enough to keep 2 metres distance between all customer groups.
Important to ensure there's no gathering of people near any common area such as the bar or doorways - would probably have to be table service only because you don't want every customer to be going to that same spot.
If one of them sneezes or coughs you could breathe that in.
Then there's shared toilets, which are usually a small poorly ventilated space, would take long time for droplets to disperse there.

I thought about returning to restaurant if restrictions are eased, where I could eat outside, but usually the toilet facilities are small and buried at the back of the restaurant or down stairs etc


----------



## Brendan Burgess

It's very hard to see how bars will operate. 

It will be table service only.   No standing. 
They will have to create booths with plexiglass to keep groups apart. 

A large work group going for a session on Friday after work will not work. 

The capacity will be a lot lower.  It might be necessary to book a table for a pint.  And that would be very hard to manage. Would you book a table/booth from 6 pm to 8 pm. It would be very difficult to get the group out at 8 pm for the next booking. 

Brendan


----------



## Brendan Burgess

The Sun has a good article on it and how many people will be able to fit in the most popular pubs under the new rules.  The Dawson Lounge is too small for even one customer apparently. 









						When will pubs reopen in Ireland and how could bars look different amid Covid crisis?
					

IRISH pubs shut down on March 15 – and questions remain over when they will reopen amid Ireland’s Covid-19 lockdown. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar confirmed the roadmap for reopening Ireland b…




					www.thesun.ie
				




This is what the publicans have proposed 


Bars will become dispense bars only with no sitting, standing, ordering, payment or drinking at the bar allowed.
Table service will be a requirement with pubs only serving customers seated at tables.
The numbers on the premises would be confined to no more than four per every 10 square metres.
A maximum of six people would be permitted at any one table.
Customers will be required to use hand sanitiser upon entry.
All customers must remain seated.
Staff will be fully trained in the new procedures. They will also be asked to maintain a safe distance from customers when taking orders and to wash their hands thoroughly every 30 minutes.
The utilisation of outdoor spaces to enhance social distancing.
Procedures implemented to ensure safe use of toilet facilities, which may include limits on the numbers using toilets at any one time.
No live music or DJs.
Gardai/HSE will have the power to close any business who is flouting the public health guidelines.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

It would be very hard to enforce.

Imagine the huge queues out on the street in Temple Bar!

Will people be allowed have a smoke outside? 

Brendan


----------



## Sunny

Could we not all do a version of speed dating in pubs and keep moving seats so none of us are longer than 10 minutes beside the same people and therefore not in close contact!!

Sitting at the bar having a pint is one of life's simple pleasures. Not sure I will return if I cant to that to be honest. It just sounds stressful.


----------



## twofor1

Maintaining social distancing is one thing.

Barpersons / servers filling and handling pints, then cash, then collecting empty glasses, cleaning tables etc, can’t see how it could be done without substantial risk to both staff and customer.

I miss my pint, but I think everyone's safety has to come first. I will go back when I think it is safe to do so, which I don’t think will be soon.

Until then, 500ml cans of draught Guinness from the home fridge will have to do.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

twofor1 said:


> Maintaining social distancing is one thing.
> 
> Barpersons / servers filling and handling pints, then cash, then collecting empty glasses, cleaning tables etc, can’t see how it could be done without substantial risk to both staff and customer.
> 
> I miss my pint, but I think everyone's safety has to come first. I will go back when I think it is safe to do so, which I don’t think will be soon.
> 
> Until then, 500ml cans of draught Guinness from the home fridge will have to do.


Best way to pour your Guinness


----------



## Sour cream & oiion

Brendan Burgess said:


> No live music or DJs.


Every cloud has a silver lining


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Best way to pour your Guinness



I wonder if that is true? 

I drink Guinness in pubs but never felt it was remotely comparable from cans.

Brendan


----------



## twofor1

No need for cans in your area;
https://www.irishtimes.com/business...blicans-bringing-pints-to-your-door-1.4247757


----------



## Des Pondent

I will be back, can’t see it happening before 10th August though.
It’s almost 2 months now since I sat on my stool with a pint.
Even when they do open I won’t be allowed to sit at the bar.
Difficult times.

Des.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

I caught the end of a report on BBC Radio 4 this morning about social distancing in pubs in Sweden. 

Some people observe it but a lot of people are not. Pubs are being fined and closed down. But the publican say that they are finding it very hard to enforce the rules. 

My gut feeling is that the Swedes are more law abiding than the Irish so what chance would Irish pubs have of obeying the rules?  

Brendan


----------



## mtk

Brendan Burgess said:


> My gut feeling is that the Swedes are more law abiding than the Irish so what chance would Irish pubs have of obeying the rules?
> 
> Brendan


So true


----------



## Bronco Lane

I have observed table service where the lounge person bringing the pints to my table, hold the glass at the rim when transferring the pint to my table. On more than one occasion I could taste the perfume or hand cream that was on the person's hand from the rim of my glass. We have all had the glass with the lipstick stain on it also.
I would just be concerned that the person bringing back the empties to the bar would carry them in the same way, transferring  God knows what to their fingers.


----------



## Merowig

What's next for the Irish pub?
					

The changes caused by the coronavirus are of a different stripe to anything Ireland's publicans have seen before..




					www.rte.ie
				




I hope there will some of my favourite pubs left to reopen. The article above shows the importance of pubs for Ireland and the challenges they are facing.


----------



## tonymac

Cant wait to have a nice creamy pint of guinness, hopefully as Merowig says hopefully as many of my favourites will be open.


----------



## Marion

Having lived over a pub and worked in it for a substantial part of my life, I understand the difficulties that pub owners are facing.

I can’t wait to have an opportunity to have a drink with friends, albeit in a safe environment.

In general, I would be looking for pubs that held high standards of hygiene previously. Clean bars, clean toilets and large outdoor spaces that were well managed for smokers.

Marion


----------



## joe sod

I think late june is achievable and this proposal should be taken seriously, alot of other countries are opening earlier so we can learn from them. We have to get serious about getting the country back to normality and having some balance in the discussion. The cost of this corona virus shutdown is enormous and any effort to shorten it should be encouraged. We are going to be paying for this for many years to come and it is the 20 and 30 year olds that will ultimately pay for most of it not the 50 and 60 year olds as they will be retired on pensions when the cost of the enormous debt will really hit if interest rates go back up again.


----------



## Purple

I haven't had a pint in Kehoes for months. If the cost of me getting back on that barstool is a few thousand dead old people then so be it!


----------



## Tintagel

Purple said:


> I haven't had a pint in Kehoes for months. If the cost of me getting back on that barstool is a few thousand dead old people then so be it!


  I think as we settle down and try to get back to normal your tongue in cheek comment is probably the way lots of people are beginning to think. Older people will be seen as collateral damage.


----------



## Purple

Tintagel said:


> I think as we settle down and try to get back to normal your tongue in cheek comment is probably the way lots of people are beginning to think. Older people will be seen as collateral damage.


Many a true word spoken in jest...


----------



## odyssey06

RTE mocked up the Fair City set to show what it would look like with social distancing applied:








						RTÉ mocks up what pubs could look like under the new guidelines and Joe Duffy isn't happy
					

No more than four people would be allowed for every 10 square metres in a premises.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Brendan Burgess

twofor1 said:


> No need for cans in your area;
> https://www.irishtimes.com/business...blicans-bringing-pints-to-your-door-1.4247757



My neighbour ordered a few pints for home delivery on Friday and they were fantastic.

As a Guinness drinker, drinking Peroni from bottles is ok, but no substitute.

Brendan


----------



## Deiseblue

Brendan Burgess said:


> My neighbour ordered a few pints for home delivery on Friday and they were fantastic.
> 
> As a Guinness drinker, drinking Peroni from bottles is ok, but no substitute.
> 
> Brendan


And pints are no substitute for the large bottle - either from the shelf or the cooler !


----------



## joe sod

I see a pub in clonmel (non restaurant no food) is to open on june 29 when restaurants and cafes open despite what the stage reopening dictates. His reason is that the protest march in dublin last weekend with thousands of marchers not abiding by social distancing and no enforcement by the gardai. I think many more will follow, "Do they take us for idiots". As the end of june approaches  the pressure to open will be huge, the government will no longer be able to hold the line as a precedent was set last weekend.


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> "Do they take us for idiots". As the end of june approaches the pressure to open will be huge, the government will no longer be able to hold the line as a precedent was set last weekend.



I think they'll find it a lot easier to shut down a pub and raise objections at the next license renewal though.


----------



## Purple

This post will be deleted if not edited immediately I'd love a pint right now...


----------



## ATC110

Purple said:


> This post will be deleted if not edited immediately I'd love a pint right now...



Is that a forum prayer?


----------



## odyssey06

I was craving beer last week with the sun and heat. Not a huge pint man. Cold bottle of Peroni did the trick.
Have ordered some more of the 660ml bottles, 4 for 10 in Tesco.

Now its back to my virtual blind wine tastings.


----------



## RedOnion

odyssey06 said:


> Now its back to my virtual blind wine tastings.


I have to drink a good bit before I'm virtually blind...

That's a good price on the large bottles of Peroni. Must add to the shopping list.


----------



## jem

Cant understand the sitting at the bar bit. I would have thought that the plexi screen would work. In effect single see through cubicles with room for a pint to be slid under to the cumtomer. when all those seats gone table service.


----------



## odyssey06

jem said:


> Cant understand the sitting at the bar bit. I would have thought that the plexi screen would work. In effect single see through cubicles with room for a pint to be slid under to the cumtomer. when all those seats gone table service.



My guess would be it's not just the social distancing between the customer and barman... 
it'd also be about distancing the customers at the bar and then the people trying to walk around the pub itself, both customers and staff.
The bar tends to also be the 'corridor' in most pubs for getting in \ out \ to bathroom.


----------



## Drakon

Advance online booking of tables in pubs is a recommended. 
There’s an article about it in The Irish Times today. 
Farcical carry-on.


----------



## Sunny

Drakon said:


> Advance online booking of tables in pubs is a recommended.
> There’s an article about it in The Irish Times today.
> Farcical carry-on.



I know. We are getting into the realms of ridiculous now....


----------



## Drakon

Hopefully it’ll be like the smoking ban, it’ll come out in the wash. It’ll take a while but eventually it’ll be self policed/regulated. 

No vintner will refuse a group of customers that rock up to the door without a booking if he’s got a free table. 
The Irish Media love to write the obituary of The Irish Pub. 
Paper doesn’t refuse ink. 
It’s fake news.


----------



## Sunny

Ridiculous suggestion yet again around the opening of shopping centres...

They also suggest that special access times be allocated for those at high risk from Covid-19 or those who have been cocooning, carers, front line staff and people with disabilities.

So we should a special hour in the day when people high at risk from getting Covid 19 like frontline staff can shop with the people who are most at risk if they get Covid 19.... Unless of course they are suggesting a hour for frontline staff, a hour for carers, a hour for people cocooning etc......Sure the shops will be delighted be back paying rent, wages etc with those trading conditions.....


----------



## Odea

Sunny said:


> So we should a special hour in the day when people high at risk from getting Covid 19 like frontline staff can shop with the people who are most at risk if they get Covid 19.... Unless of course they are suggesting a hour for frontline staff, a hour for carers, a hour for people cocooning etc......Sure the shops will be delighted be back paying rent, wages etc with those trading conditions.....


I hate to admit to, and ashamed to say it, but I have stopped visiting supermarkets beside hospitals, where staff nip in for their lunch items.


----------



## odyssey06

Now quite sure how this works exactly - 57 The Headline on Clanbrassil Street Dublin have opened a walk in pub shop.
_"So we've decided to open a pub shop, what's that you say. Well it's our new look.  A one way system that allows you to shop for great beer,  wine and old fashioned chats."_


			https://twitter.com/57theheadline/status/1270791871309193222


----------



## Drakon

Have they just converted it from on-license to off-license?


----------



## Leo

odyssey06 said:


> ow quite sure how this works exactly - 57 The Headline on Clanbrassil Street Dublin have opened a walk in pub shop.



Good few pubs doing that around me. The standard 7-day license means they're free to sell for take-away so long as it's consumed more than 100m from the premises.


----------



## odyssey06

Drakon said:


> Have they just converted it from on-license to off-license?



Not 100% sure, but it's a little more than that (I think). 
Like you could go in an order a measure of a particular whiskey or request a particular cocktail and they would sell it in a mini bottle.


----------



## Drakon

A friend is organising pints for Saturday 4th July!
As with many things in the pandemic era, it’ll be interesting.


----------



## Tintagel

Purple said:


> I haven't had a pint in Kehoes for months. If the cost of me getting back on that barstool is a few thousand dead old people then so be it!


Looks like you will be getting your wish in a month or so and less that 1700 deaths, mostly older people I understand. Good news then.


----------



## Purple

Tintagel said:


> Looks like you will be getting your wish in a month or so and less that 1700 deaths, mostly older people I understand. Good news then.


Absolutely! And not even a few thousand dead. Sure the whole thing has all been a bit underwhelming. Nobody I know even died from it therefore the golden rule applies; It didn't affect me = It doesn't matter.


----------



## joe sod

When the bars open again in 2 weeks what is the closing time is it the normal 11.30 weekdays, 12.30 weekend nights ?, they havn't mentioned anything about that.


----------



## Protocol

Drakon said:


> Have they just converted it from on-license to off-license?



All pubs are off-licences, as in all pubs can sell stock to take-home.

You can walk into any pub, and order cans/bottles to take home.


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> When the bars open again in 2 weeks what is the closing time is it the normal 11.30 weekdays, 12.30 weekend nights ?, they havn't mentioned anything about that.


See now we are asking the important questions.


----------



## joe sod

Purple said:


> See now we are asking the important questions.


In any case was it actually legal to close all the pubs in the first place, I think because of the social media pressure surrounding the corona virus pandemic back in March no publican was going to challenge the decree. They were more sensitive to the social media mob then and closed even before the order due to this pressure.


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> In any case was it actually legal to close all the pubs in the first place, I think because of the social media pressure surrounding the corona virus pandemic back in March no publican was going to challenge the decree. They were more sensitive to the social media mob then and closed even before the order due to this pressure.


Yes, the power of the mob... sure what could go wrong?
To quote the great philosopher Homer (Simpson) "There's no justice like mob justice"


----------



## joe sod

Now they want 9euro minimum for a meal at a pub and a maximum stay of 1.5 hrs, this is getting ridiculous, the state needs to get out of the way, it's like the return of the parish priest enforcing morality and holy hours. "Leave room for the holy ghost".


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

90 minute limited stay in pub.  Surely the resulting pub crawls is exactly what the virus wants.


----------



## Sunny

Very interesting scientific research that shows spending 9 euro and spending 90 minutes rather than 120 minutes in a pub dramatically reduce the chances of catching the virus. Sometimes, I feel like I live in an episode of the Simpsons.


----------



## Purple

I can picture Mayor Quimby saying "Wel..ehh.. it, eh, seems that if you, eh, spend 90 minutes in a pub is is, eh, perfectly eh, safe."


----------



## odyssey06

joe sod said:


> Now they want 9euro minimum for a meal at a pub and a maximum stay of 1.5 hrs, this is getting ridiculous, the state needs to get out of the way, it's like the return of the parish priest enforcing morality and holy hours. "Leave room for the holy ghost".



Hmm. I wonder if a pub that doesn't do food could partner up with local pizza places and just have a delivery every 90 minutes.
Pizza and pint for a tenner.


----------



## Leper

We're inching our way back towards a new normality. The publicans have tried every means possible to open all their premises earlier than the restriction date. I heard a Dublin publican recently on radio who said a half sandwich is a meal and he feels entitled to sell liquor legally to the purchaser of the half sandwich. They feel they are more entitled than anybody else. The vast majority of us are biding by the restrictions and the country overall has performed well compared to some other countries. I see no reason why the publicans cannot do what we've been doing. 

If the publicans and any other group are allowed do what they want to do, there's no point in having any restrictions.


----------



## Sunny

Leper said:


> We're inching our way back towards a new normality. The publicans have tried every means possible to open all their premises earlier than the restriction date. I heard a Dublin publican recently on radio who said a half sandwich is a meal and he feels entitled to sell liquor legally to the purchaser of the half sandwich. They feel they are more entitled than anybody else. The vast majority of us are biding by the restrictions and the country overall has performed well compared to some other countries. I see no reason why the publicans cannot do what we've been doing.
> 
> If the publicans and any other group are allowed do what they want to do, there's no point in having any restrictions.



What publicans? I haven't seen one pub try and open before they were allowed to.

Nobody is denying that things can't go back to normal right away but restrictions need to be based on science. Not rules like you have to spend €9 and only spend 90 minutes in a pub. None of that makes things safer. It just creates red tape.

I went to the opticians this morning where all the restrictions were in place. Temp checks. Check in. Limited numbers in the shop. I was wearing my mask.  I was constantly touching the bloody thing which made it pointless. When getting the eye test, I had to remove the mask below my nose because the machinery would fog up. Same thing when trying on glasses. The optician told me to remove the mask if I liked and we social distanced. He was happy. I was happy. Restrictions are fine but they need to be built on science and even common sense. Otherwise we might as well just stay at home.


----------



## Leo

Sunny said:


> Not rules like you have to spend €9 and only spend 90 minutes in a pub. None of that makes things safer. It just creates red tape.



How do you suggest controls should be defined so that they are easily understood, implemented and enforceable?


----------



## Sunny

Leo said:


> How do you suggest controls should be defined so that they are easily understood, implemented and enforceable?



I don't understand your point. Are you telling me that rules like you must spend €9 on a meal of substance and you can't spend more than 90 minutes in a pub are easily understood, implemented and enforceable for the majority of businesses? Oh and if you do this, you only have to do 1m social distance. What is the connection between the money you spend on a meal, the time you spend on a premises and the social distance? Does that mean my office only has to do 1m social distance if I spend €9 on my lunch and spend no more than 90 minutes in the office? If I do 90 minutes, how long do I have to leave for before I come back in for 'another meal'? If I look at your menu and decide I actually don't like anything apart from a sandwich, are you telling me I have to leave? Does the €9 rule apply to kids, groups, individual adults? So what happens kids menus? Coming up to the 90 minute limit and I decide I want another drink. Are you going to refuse to serve me? Are you going to kick me out half way through my pint? Are you going to call last orders on me at 60 minutes?


----------



## odyssey06

The 90 minute restriction was suggested instead of the 2 metre social distancing. 








						Two-metre social distancing rule could be reduced to one metre for pubs and restaurants opening this month
					

Restaurants and pubs which serve food are due to repen at the end of June.




					www.thejournal.ie
				




The €9 is the legal definition of what constitutes a substantial meal. This was adopted to allow pubs to re-open as restaurants not as pubs.








						A 'significant meal' may be required in a pub once they reopen - but why €9?
					

Pubs that can serve food are allowed reopen from 29 June.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Leo

Sunny said:


> I don't understand your point. Are you telling me that rules like you must spend €9 on a meal of substance and you can't spend more than 90 minutes in a pub are easily understood, implemented and enforceable for the majority of businesses? Oh and if you do this, you only have to do 1m social distance.



No, I simply asked what measures you think they should introduce?

If we want to focus solely on the risk and scientific advice, then we should keep pubs closed for a lot longer.


----------



## Firefly

joe sod said:


> Now they want 9euro minimum for a meal at a pub and a maximum stay of 1.5 hrs


So you could spend an hour perusing the menu whilst having a few aperitifs


----------



## Drakon

Simon Harris has asked we keep our social circle small. So instead of meeting 4 groups of  different people in the space of a month, meet one group four times. Keep the contract tracing circle small. 

Meanwhile, we’re getting the opposite message regarding visiting pubs.
Instead of six hours in one pub, spend 90mins each in four pubs.


----------



## odyssey06

Drakon said:


> Simon Harris has asked we keep our social circle small. So instead of meeting 4 groups of  different people in the space of a month, meet one group four times. Keep the contract tracing circle small.
> Meanwhile, we’re getting the opposite message regarding visiting pubs.
> Instead of six hours in one pub, spend 90mins each in four pubs.



It's not an opposite measure.

The restrictions in the pubs are so that your contacts there don't meet the definiton of a 'close contact' .


----------



## Sunny

odyssey06 said:


> It's not an opposite measure.
> 
> The restrictions in the pubs are so that your contacts there don't meet the definiton of a 'close contact' .



How???? 

1. Buying a meal? No.
2. 1m Social distance? No.
3. Spending 90 minutes per pub. No


----------



## Drakon

What I’m getting at though, and haven’t made clear, is that if a group of people go drinking for six hours, and one of the has the virus (pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic), if he/she remained in one pub for six hours, the number of people he/she infects is limited to one venue. 
But because of the 90min time limit, that group will go to four pubs, and the occupants of four venues may get infected instead. 

At present, the relevant hashtag is #StayLocal

But when it comes to pubs, instead of #StayInYourLocal the message is #GoOnAPubCrawl. 

Look at what happened in Soeul. They opened the pubs and clubs and one guy got off with a few different fellas in a few different clubs, spreading the virus.


----------



## odyssey06

Sunny said:


> How????
> 1. Buying a meal? No.
> 2. 1m Social distance? No.
> 3. Spending 90 minutes per pub. No



The 1m social distance is 70% effective at protecting you from an infected person in the pub.
The 90 minutes I assume is so that if there is someone with the virus into the pub exhaling into the air, that your viral exposure is kept within a certain limit.
It's an equation of distance * time * level of exposure.
In the pub all night but at a 2 metres distance would also meet their criteria for safe contact.
I'm not an expert, so I'm trying to outline the rationale for the restrictions as I see it.

But I'm not sure what your alternative angle is here. 
Are you advocating it should be 2 metres social distancing but without a time limit?
Keep the pubs shut until the next phase when they can re-open more as pubs and not as a restaurant?
Not have any restrictions?


----------



## odyssey06

Drakon said:


> What I’m getting at though, and haven’t made clear, is that if a group of people go drinking for six hours, and one of the has the virus (pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic), if he/she remained in one pub for six hours, the number of people he/she infects is limited to one venue.
> But because of the 90min time limit, that group will go to four pubs, and the occupants of four venues may get infected instead.



The point of the restrictions is to discourage you from drinking for 6 hours in multiple venues by including the substantial meal angle - they are opening as restaurants not as saloons.
The 1 metre social distance is 70% effective at protecting you from an infected person, and the 90 minutes would also help reduce how much you breathe in, unless someone is sneezing and coughing.



> Look at what happened in Soeul. They opened the pubs and clubs and one guy got off with a few different fellas in a few different clubs, spreading the virus.



Not sure how relevant that is to a discussion of 90 minutes or 1 metre or 2 metres though!


----------



## Drakon

I’m due to meet friends for pints on Saturday 4th July. 
I’ll let you know how we get on.


----------



## Sunny

odyssey06 said:


> The 1m social distance is 70% effective at protecting you from an infected person in the pub.
> The 90 minutes I assume is so that if there is someone with the virus into the pub exhaling into the air, that your viral exposure is kept within a certain limit.
> It's an equation of distance * time * level of exposure.
> In the pub all night but at a 2 metres distance would also meet their criteria for safe contact.
> I'm not an expert, so I'm trying to outline the rationale for the restrictions as I see it.
> 
> But I'm not sure what your alternative angle is here.
> Are you advocating it should be 2 metres social distancing but without a time limit?
> Keep the pubs shut until the next phase when they can re-open more as pubs and not as a restaurant?
> Not have any restrictions?



But that doesn't make any sense. Restrictions are fine but they need to make sense otherwise people won't respect them. The definition of a close contact is

_Anyone who has spent more than 15 minutes, face-to-face, within two meters of a person with coronavirus in any setting, for example, anyone living in the same household, or someone who has shared a closed space with a confirmed case for more than two hours. _

So where is the 90 minutes coming from? That is just plucked out of the air.

Same with social distance. How does a 9 euro meal and 90 minutes justify reducing social distance to 1m when other places of business like shops are still expected to operate with 2m when people are inside for a lot less than 90m. 


What does having a meal over a certain amount do for that as well. Again how does the 9 euro amount fit in with kids meals? Does a pub selling cheap food like toasted sandwiches and baskets of chips carry more risk that gastro-pubs?


----------



## odyssey06

I am sure if pubs and restaurants are allowed 1m social distancing that retail outlets and transport will be asking the same as you... probably it will all be rolled out together.
The 1m distancing is a clear concept adopted in other countries for social distancing as it is 70% effective.
So I am not confused by why 1m might be ok in some settings considering the prevalence of cases.

It would be good if they provided more info on the 90 mins reasoning.
And tbh 90 mins is a bit tight for a restaurant dinner.

The reason for the 9e amount has already been explained. It is an existing legal definition in licensing laws. If you dont understand it you shouldnt have a licence.


----------



## Drakon

Maybe they’ve hired David Drumm, ex-Anglo, to pluck the numbers?


----------



## joe sod

Leper said:


> The publicans have tried every means possible to open all their premises earlier than the restriction date.


That's not true most closed before they were ordered to. The "restriction date" is arbitrary its not a religious date handed down from on high

_"thou shalt keep that day holy in praise of the most high CMO, thou shalt eat a modest meal but not toasted cheese, that is forbidden, thou shalt drink 2 cups of wine and leave the inn after 2 score and 9 have elapsed, thou shalt wash thy feet and thy hands to keep thyself pure. If thou follow my teachings I will keep thee free of the leprosy .All hail the almighty"_


----------



## Leo

Sunny said:


> 3. Spending 90 minutes per pub. No



Look at the detailed modelling they did on the clusters in restaurants and offices where a single carrier infected multiple people around them. Time spent in an enclosed space with a carrier is very much a factor. 

You still haven't suggested what you think would be reasonable, effective, and achievable measures?


----------



## Leo

Sunny said:


> How does a 9 euro meal and 90 minutes justify reducing social distance to 1m



The publicans are the ones calling for dispensation, allowing restaurant-like pubs serving meals to open early was their idea. It was all part of the VFI & LVI blueprint for reopening early that they've been pushing since late April. The alternative was to remain closed until August as per the original plan. As soon as that gained any traction, some publicans openly stated they would consider a packet of crisps a meal and they intended opening early.


----------



## Sunny

Leo said:


> Look at the detailed modelling they did on the clusters in restaurants and offices where a single carrier infected multiple people around them. Time spent in an enclosed space with a carrier is very much a factor.
> 
> You still haven't suggested what you think would be reasonable, effective, and achievable measures?



Again, where did I deny that time doesn't matter. I want to know where the 90 minutes came from. Then it was changed to 105 minutes within hours of their draft. Their own definition of a close contact is 120 minutes. And if pubs can drop social distance to 1m if people spend less than 105 minutes, then why can't shops do it on the same date considering people are in shops for a lot less than 105 minutes? Why is the guidance on companies holding face to face meetings in meeting rooms not the same? So I hold a meeting in an office and I am a close contact after 2 hours even if I maintain social distance of 2m. I spend 105 minutes in a pub eating a 9 euro meal, 1m away from the people next to me and I am not a close contact according to the guidance.


----------



## Leo

Sunny said:


> Again, where did I deny that time doesn't matter. I want to know where the 90 minutes came from.



It's a compromise from the original position of 0 minutes, while allowing reasonable time to consume a meal. But it's acknowledged that even the 90 minute limit comes with significant risk. 



Sunny said:


> Their own definition of a close contact is 120 minutes.



No, the official position on close contact is 15 minutes within 2m. 



Sunny said:


> And if pubs can drop social distance to 1m if people spend less than 105 minutes, then why can't shops do it on the same date considering people are in shops for a lot less than 105 minutes?



Shops are higher risk due to the greater throughput of people. The scientific advice is that pubs should be restricted to the 2m rule as well.


----------



## Sunny

Leo said:


> The publicans are the ones calling for dispensation, allowing restaurant-like pubs serving meals to open early was their idea. It was all part of the VFI & LVI blueprint for reopening early that they've been pushing since late April. The alternative was to remain closed until August as per the original plan. As soon as that gained any traction, some publicans openly stated they would consider a packet of crisps a meal and they intended opening early.



That's fine. No issue with the 1m social distance. But then look at the 2m distance in other sectors. We are getting to the stage where we seem to be making up the regulations on what will allow the economy to reopen while looking like we are doing something to make people feel safe and not based on science. If shops have to use 2m social distance, then why are pubs and restaurants or offices different. Reduce the distance to 1m for everyone. People are now reading all this and the more they see something that goes against what is happening in another business, the more they will just ignore the advice. You see it now with masks. Health and Government want people to wear masks in shops and public transport. Yet all people have heard is wishy washy advice for weeks. They see staff in shops and supermarkets not wearing masks. People have no problem with regulations and restrictions but they have to make sense. Otherwise it just comes across as nanny state interference.


----------



## Sunny

Leo said:


> No, the official position on close contact is 15 minutes within 2m.



Except that is not the full meaning

[broken link removed]

A close contact is: Anyone who has spent more than 15 minutes, face-to-face, within two meters of a person with coronavirus in any setting, for example, anyone living in the same household, *or someone who has shared a closed space with a confirmed case for more than two hours*


----------



## Leo

Sunny said:


> Except that is not the full meaning
> 
> [broken link removed]
> 
> A close contact is: Anyone who has spent more than 15 minutes, face-to-face, within two meters of a person with coronavirus in any setting, for example, anyone living in the same household, *or someone who has shared a closed space with a confirmed case for more than two hours*



Yeah, so a closed space, like two people in an office or house, i.e., a lot more than 2m apart. I don't think you're suggesting pubs should be limited to a single group?

It would seem from your arguments that the only logical conclusion is to keep them closed.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

90 mins increased to 105 mins as a compromise    Who is going to enforce these arbitrary regulations?  The 20km/own county travel restriction is equally unenforceable and is effectively ignored judging by the traffic on our motorways.


----------



## Sunny

Leo said:


> Yeah, so a closed space, like two people in an office or house, i.e., a lot more than 2m apart. I don't think you're suggesting pubs should be limited to a single group?
> 
> It would seem from your arguments that the only logical conclusion is to keep them closed.



A close contact is anyone in a closed space with a confirmed case for more than 2 hours. The distance doesn't matter. If your office has a confirmed case, you all become potential close contacts after 2 hours even if you have done 2m social distance and a risk assessment will need to be carried out by public health.

So that's the rule for offices. Now apparently I can go to the pub for 105 minutes, sit one metre away from a group different to my own (who I am not socially distancing from even though they might not be from my household as we are sharing a table), and eat a €9 meal.

So I can have a 2 hour meeting in a meeting room with some colleagues or outside vendors/visitors but if I go to my local restaurant, I can sit with anyone at my own table, sit 1m away from other tables for  105 minutes but that is considered the same risk only because I am buying a €9 meal and there for 15 minutes less?

Reduce social distance to 1m for all businesses. It is going to happen anyway so do it now. Let pubs and restaurants open without time limits. If you try to impose time limit on pubs when they reopen at the end of July, then you are just going to encourage pub crawls which is more dangerous. So why impose time limits now for the sake of 4 weeks? Who is even going to regulate it? Are you going to call the guards if people are there for 2 hours? Drop the ridiculous requirement to buy food. I have seen plenty of very drunk people tuck into a €50 steak in Shanahans over the years. It's just nanny state. Let licensed premises do what they are responsible for and serve responsibly. If they dont and have drunk people climbing over tables, close them down.


----------



## Leo

Sunny said:


> Reduce social distance to 1m for all businesses. It is going to happen anyway so do it now.



Sure why did we bother with restrictions at all? They were all going to be scrapped anyway....


----------



## odyssey06

Sunny said:


> So that's the rule for offices. Now apparently I can go to the pub for 105 minutes, sit one metre away from a group different to my own (who I am not socially distancing from even though they might not be from my household as we are sharing a table), and eat a €9 meal.
> So I can have a 2 hour meeting in a meeting room with some colleagues or outside vendors/visitors but if I go to my local restaurant, I can sit with anyone at my own table, sit 1m away from other tables for  105 minutes but that is considered the same risk only because I am buying a €9 meal and there for 15 minutes less?



The €9 meal has been explained to you half a dozen times on the thread already.
It's a legal definition used to allow pubs to re-open for the purposes of operating as a restaurant serving substantial meals.
You obviously don't get it but hopefully you're not running a licensed premises.
Anyone with an ounce of cop-on knows that without it that many pubs would just re-open as solely drinking establishments.

The time limit is a way of further reducing the risk of exposure in conjunction with the minimum social distancing of 1 metre.
2 metres is the recommended social distance and should be adopted wherever possible.

_Under the guidance published last night, pubs will be permitted to implement one-metre distancing in controlled environments where two-metre physical distancing is not possible.
However, they will have to ensure other risk mitigation requirements have been met and that pre-booked time slots are in place.
Customers may only be allowed to stay in a premises for 105 minutes, with an additional 15 minutes between bookings to allow for adequate cleaning and to ensure customers leave and enter without mixing._








						'There's a lack of understanding of the business': Pubs frustrated by late timing of re-opening guidelines
					

New guidance on the re-opening of pubs was published by Fáilte Ireland last night.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Sunny

Leo said:


> Sure why did we bother with restrictions at all? They were all going to be scrapped anyway....



Yeah because that is what I said.    Do you have any idea how much money is been spent by businesses in making sure they adhere to 2m social distance that the Government have stated is under constant review. How many businesses can't open because of the 2m? They have stated that different sectors might require different distances. They said schools might have no social distance. Make a decision on what they want now. There is plenty of research on social distance. There are plenty of other countries that have less than 2m that we can look at. Plenty of countries that have 2m that we can look at. If we want to have 2m, then fine. But make it consistent and make a decision. We are going end up doing what we did with masks and end up with a confused mess. 

Anyway, this is going the way of bitcoin and I am not going 23 pages.....


----------



## Sunny

odyssey06 said:


> The €9 meal has been explained to you half a dozen times on the thread already.
> It's a legal defintion used to allow pubs to re-open for the purposes of operating as a restaurant.
> You obviously don't understand it but hopefully you're not running a licensed premises.



Actually the 'legal definition' that you cling to is in shillings......Now suddenly it is a key part of licencing legislation.  The Legislation also states that it should be a main course so can a pub not sell a nice starter dish of two big prawns for €9.05 or are we going to have staff tell someone that they need to eat more as technically the meal is not substantial enough??? Or is it just the price that makes it substantial. Can I spend €9 on a crisp sandwich and eat away??


----------



## odyssey06

Sunny said:


> Actually the 'legal definition' that you cling to is in shillings......Now suddenly it is a key part of licencing legislation.  The Legislation also states that it should be a main course so can a pub not sell a nice starter dish of two big prawns for €9.05 or are we going to have staff tell someone that they need to eat more as technically the meal is not substantial enough???



Remember that quote from Shakespeare: "First thing we do, we kill all the lawyers."
You're making some fair points about the impact on businesses of 2m v 1m.
But this bar-room(!) barrister stuff isn't doing you any favours.

Sit down at a table at lunch in a busy tourist spot, e.g. a fishing village in Malta.
They don't want someone tying up a table ordering beers and a side of chips.
They had no problem telling people if they wanted drinks they needed to order a main course lunch.
So why would an irish pub have a problem doing the same unless they determine that they want to evade the rules or be difficult.

If an Irish pub wants to open but is too timid or pig ignorant to tells its customers what it needs to do, it shouldn't open and frankly if it goes bust it is its own fault.


----------



## Sunny

odyssey06 said:


> Remember that quote from Shakespeare: "First thing we do, we kill all the lawyers."
> You're making some fair points about the impact on businesses of 2m v 1m.
> But this bar-room(!) barrister stuff isn't doing you any favours.
> 
> Sit down at a table at lunch in a busy tourist spot, e.g. a fishing village in Malta.
> They don't want someone tying up a table ordering beers and a side of chips.
> They had no problem telling people if they wanted drinks they needed to order a main course lunch.
> So why would an irish pub have a problem doing the same unless they determine that they want to evade the rules or be difficult.
> 
> If an Irish pub wants to open but is too timid or pig ignorant to tells its customers what it needs to do, it shouldn't open and frankly if it goes bust it is its own fault.



You are missing the point. I couldn't care less if pubs have to serve food. But what has it got to do with reducing your chances of getting Covid? 

Also the definition of what food is? We seem to have decided on €9 is what decides. So what is to stop any pub deciding to sell €9 euro sandwiches? But it has to be substantial? Well who decides that? Staff? Are we going to have inspectors going around checking to make sure people ate a substantial mean? It's just nonsensical

Bring in restrictions and regulations by all means. But they have to make sense and they have be able to be enforced. Again, it is like the mask mess. We encourage you to wear it unless you can't. Don't stigmitise anyone who decides not to wear one. We should be wearing masks. We need to do better. It is a confusing mess.

The problem here is that pubs serving food were right to say they should be allowed to open same time as restaurants and should not have been in later phase. These restrictions just seem like they were made up to justify bringing forward the opening of these places.


----------



## odyssey06

Sunny said:


> You are missing the point. I couldn't care less if pubs have to serve food. But what has it got to do with reducing your chances of getting Covid?
> Also the definition of what food is? We seem to have decided on €9 is what decides. So what is to stop any pub deciding to sell €9 euro sandwiches? But it has to be substantial? Well who decides that? Staff? Are we going to have inspectors going around checking to make sure people ate a substantial mean? It's just nonsensical
> Bring in restrictions and regulations by all means. But they have to make sense and they have be able to be enforced. Again, it is like the mask mess. We encourage you to wear it unless you can't. Don't stigmitise anyone who decides not to wear one. We should be wearing masks. We need to do better. It is a confusing mess.
> The problem here is that pubs serving food were right to say they should be allowed to open same time as restaurants and should not have been in later phase. These restrictions just seem like they were made up to justify bringing forward the opening of these places.



That is the problem but the side effect is that if they don't have some concept of substantial meal, non food serving pubs will just re-open as drinking dens.
If you think enforcing the restrictions on a food serving establishment is difficult, how are you going to enforce any restrictions on them as drinking dens?
Is someone going to go into the pub with a 2 metre giant hurl and start swinging?
Who is going to enforce any of the restrictions in these establishments?

It's screamingly obvious that's the reason behind the substantial meal concept. 
If it's such difficult concept why has it been on the statute books for 50 years?

You offer no alternatives in terms of what these restrictions and regulations are that make sense to you and are enforceable in an establishment serving alcohol to allow partial re-opening.
In the absence of those, the logical conclusion of your argument is either don't allow anywhere to open or abolish all restrictions.

ps I agree with you they have been embarrassing on masks but that's a whole other thread


----------



## joe sod

Duke of Marmalade said:


> 90 mins increased to 105 mins as a compromise  Who is going to enforce these arbitrary regulations


The social media addicts will enforce it probably,they are the new "valley of the squinting windows". I think that's one of the unfortunate consequences of the corona virus, a bigger state that has a bigger say in the minutiae of your life and an army of social media informers to enforce it.


----------



## Leo

Sunny said:


> Yeah because that is what I said.  Do you have any idea how much money is been spent by businesses in making sure they adhere to 2m social distance that the Government have stated is under constant review. How many businesses can't open because of the 2m?



Agreed, all you have just complained about the measures that are being considered in response to pressure from the publicans' lobbies to facilitate pubs opening earlier than planned. 

Again, what measures do you think would sufficiently mitigate the risk to allow them open earlier than planned? Keep in mins they must be easily understood and easily enforced.


----------



## joe sod

I see all the Temple Bar pubs are now not opening on june 29, Ive heard alot of others are not opening either , the costs and work to comply are too onerous its just not worth it. I think when july 20 rolls along some consideration and thought will have to be given to bars like in Temple bar, that are not restaurants , that are not table service where the main offering is entertainment


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> I see all the Temple Bar pubs are now not opening on june 29, Ive heard alot of others are not opening either , the costs and work to comply are too onerous its just not worth it. I think when july 20 rolls along some consideration and thought will have to be given to bars like in Temple bar, that are not restaurants , that are not table service where the main offering is entertainment


And they cater to tourists... and there's no tourists.


----------



## Sophrosyne

The way I look at it is that it is all about personal responsibility from now on.

The virus is still here. We know how we contract it and we know how to avoid contagion.

Some will take chances, like the unfortunates displaying almost frenzied excitement at the re-opening retail businesses, queuing for hours and abandoning all distancing restraints.

However, despite anecdotal evidence to the contrary, I think the vast majority are sensible and don’t need laws to enforce what they know already. Were it not so, we could never have suppressed the virus as well as we did.

Just because a business wants to open is no guarantee of enough customers to ensure sustainability.

_Customers_ will decide and to some extent, dictate what is safe for them.


----------



## odyssey06

Sophrosyne said:


> The way I look at it is that it is all about personal responsibility from now on...
> However, despite anecdotal evidence to the contrary, I think the vast majority are sensible and don’t need laws to enforce what they know already. Were it not so, we could never have suppressed the virus as well as we did.
> Just because a business want to open is no guarantee of enough customers to ensure sustainability.
> _Customers_ will decide and to some extent, dictate what is safe for them.



In general I think you are right that the actions of individuals is key. The vast majority may be sensible but not all the time and not in all their actions.

But where the state has a key role to play in the restrictions are those situations where personal responsibility is not absolute.
An individual should not be rushed back to work by their employer unnecessarily.
And, when it comes to pubs and drinking we have laws about drink driving etc because we have seen personal responsibility is not enough.
Likewise, we have fire safety limits on venues and concerts because we know that many owners will otherwise let too many people in.


----------



## Sophrosyne

odyssey06 said:


> But where the state has a key role to play in the restrictions are those situations where personal responsibility is not absolute.



For sure we need laws, but my post was about matters over which people have discretion.


----------



## Foxy007

odyssey06 said:


> In general I think you are right that the actions of individuals is key. The vast majority may be sensible but not all the time and not in all their actions.
> 
> But where the state has a key role to play in the restrictions are those situations where personal responsibility is not absolute.
> An individual should not be rushed back to work by their employer unnecessarily.
> And, when it comes to pubs and drinking we have laws about drink driving etc because we have seen personal responsibility is not enough.
> Likewise, we have fire safety limits on venues and concerts because we know that many owners will otherwise let too many people in.



Also you get into the tricky area of health condition disclosures to Employers .....been there, done that and was burned.


----------



## joe sod

I see dublin pubs are booked out for the first days of reopening on Monday, obviously a pent up demand there after 3 months of closure. This could last a while though, restricted capacity and pent up demand, the psychology of queuing comes into play where people desire something more the harder it is to gain entry. Obviously the risks of the corona virus are still there but the young are fed up of lockdown and want to get back to some sort of social life. In London yesterday there were clashes with police and youngsters determined to party after 3 months of lockdown. I think the government has made the right call in getting everything opened up now they could not maintain this for much longer


----------



## odyssey06

This is what can happen when you open up pubs too soon and social distancing goes out the window...
_State officials have attributed much of the new outbreak to young adults flocking to bars after they reopened in most of the state three weeks ago, with many of them ignoring social distancing restrictions aimed at lowering the virus’s spread.
Bars, like restaurants, were supposed to limit patrons to 50% of their normal capacity, under the state’s emergency orders. Patrons had to sit at tables, with groups six feet apart. No congregating at the bar or on the dance floor was permitted.
The new order* prohibits any establishment that makes more than 50% of its revenue from alcohol sales from serving alcohol for consumption on site*.
Restaurants that primarily sell food can still serve alcohol to customers seated at tables.
Business and Professional Regulations Secretary Halsey Beshears said he issued the order because too many bars and patrons were breaking the rules, overwhelming his department’s inspectors._









						Florida bans alcohol consumption in bars as virus spirals
					

The move came as the state’s daily coronavirus cases record was smashed again.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## twofor1

I walked past my local this evening,  a well known suburban Dublin pub. A few of the regulars were outside smoking. They told me that you can book or just turn up. You have to sign in, you can order food but it is not necessary, if anyone comes in and asks, just say you have ordered or had food. You can also sit at the bar and drink, though there are some screens. A one way system was also in place, in one door only and out another, but this did not seem to apply to smokers.


----------



## Shelby219

Heard tonight our local pub is open, but no food being served, front door locked, just use the back entrance!!!


----------



## joe sod

having to order a 9 euro meal was ridiculous requirement anyway therefore it is understandable that some are not bothering with it. It was an arbitrary recommendation anyway which Tony Holohan had some sort of attachment to, they are not bothering with that in NI even though they followed Leo's lead to reopen the pubs now. Once the important conditions are adhered to, social distancing and not drinking to excess then everything should be ok. A sort of puritanism has taken with hold with some which has nothing to do with coronavirus


----------



## Purple

Shelby219 said:


> just use the back entrance!!!


That reminds me of a joke...


----------



## IsleOfMan

I was looking at a piece on TV yesterday where Princess Street in Cork had pedestrianised the street and filled it with outdoor tables and chairs so that the local restaurants and pubs could serve customers outdoors rather than indoors. Great idea.

However it showed a couple of restaurants where they were serving cups of coffee to tables full of people. The servers in the restaurants were not wearing masks. They were leaning across the tables when placing the cups within a foot or so of their customers. Do staff not have to wear masks in restaurants?

Another thing I saw were staff wearing face visors but no masks when serving food. I would have thought that someone sneezing when wearing a face visor would send the droplets down the visor and out the bottom..........not great if holding a plate or a tray of pints.....


----------



## joe sod

@IsleOfMan  you are never going to get 100percent compliance with every single requirement when dealing with the public. You have to remember that these businesses were closed for 3months, no revenue, therefore now that they have customers back buying they are hardly going to be didactic and overly censoring with customers not following the recommendations 100percent. The customer will just go to another business that does not censor them, it's not like accessing public services or transport where the customer has to comply there is no alternative.
As for staff members, remember they have to work, try doing physically demanding jobs with both a mask and a visor in this muggy weather, they are not health workers and probably close to the minimum wage. In any case it is either mask or visor they are not working in a hospital. Some people that are overly critical of staff have never done work like that themselves.


----------



## Deiseblue

4 of us out for a pint last night   pub looked impressive - no bar seating but stools provided in nooks with tables and shelves for placing drinks and food.
Bar itself cocooned by perspex , staff not wearing masks.
Impressive menu with goujons and chips & prawns available at €9 and more substantial meals at ,€13.
Social distancing adhered too but time limit of 105 minutes roundly ignored but not by our party.
Relaxing night out after initial nervous start .


----------



## odyssey06

You might have some company in the pub this weekend...
_AN GARDA SÍOCHANA will this evening begin conducting checks of licensed premises nationwide in relation to adherence to the public health guidelines. _








						Garda managers in all areas directed to begin checking pubs for Covid-19 compliance this evening
					

This follows concerns that some licensed premises and customers haven’t been adhering to the public health guidelines.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## joe sod

I see the garda conducted checks last week and reported that ,horror of horrors, some were not serving food. They will be recommending that these should not get their liquor licence renewed in September. Is this not completely over the top and possibly illegal anyway to refuse a liquor licence because a "guideline" was possibly not complied with. Before this a liquor licence would only not be renewed if their were gross multiple breaches of the laws such as open after hours, serving minors, facilitating drug use, or frequent fighting and violence on premises.


----------



## odyssey06

joe sod said:


> I see the garda conducted checks last week and reported that ,horror of horrors, some were not serving food. They will be recommending that these should not get their liquor licence renewed in September. Is this not completely over the top and possibly illegal anyway to refuse a liquor licence because a "guideline" was possibly not complied with. Before this a liquor licence would only not be renewed if their were gross multiple breaches of the laws such as open after hours, serving minors, facilitating drug use, or frequent fighting and violence on premises.



Maybe this will be weighed in the balance along with any other infractions clocked up ... chances are if they are ignoring this 'guideline', they may be a bit laissez faire about some other regs.


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> Is this not completely over the top and possibly illegal anyway to refuse a liquor licence because a "guideline" was possibly not complied with.



There's objecting and there's refusing. It's the courts that renew licenses, anyone who chooses can submit an objection. All renewals are notified to the local Garda Super who also gets to weigh in. The manner in which the premises is run is a consideration, the courts could decide that any pub operating in breach of official guidance during a pandemic is behaving irresponsibly, and refuse the renewal.


----------



## RichInSpirit

After not having a drink since January or February this year had a couple of glasses of red wine with food and family earlier and I'm bulling for a few pints.
All the pubs around are still dark. It's terrible.


----------



## joe sod

RichInSpirit said:


> I'm bulling for a few pints.
> All the pubs around are still dark. It's terrible.



But this is the "new normal" , a few pints sitting at the bar with nobody in particular is now forbidden. Im exaggerating of course the restrictions are primarily there to contain the virus but there seems to be a puritanism and agenda hidden behind all this to kill off some of our pub culture. For example the hardline taken by the authorities with regards to the 9euro meal even though this has nothing to do with virus spread.


----------



## odyssey06

joe sod said:


> But this is the "new normal" , a few pints sitting at the bar with nobody in particular is now forbidden. Im exaggerating of course the restrictions are primarily there to contain the virus but there seems to be a puritanism and agenda hidden behind all this to kill off some of our pub culture. For example the hardline taken by the authorities with regards to the 9euro meal even though this has nothing to do with virus spread.



I think you are reading too much into it... the political parties pushing this are also pushing for minimum unit pricing which has the clear agenda of favouring pubs over supermarkets.
The 9 euro meal has everything to do with pubs operatin as food establishments, which is what is permitted in the current phase.
Probably they should have just kept the pubs shut, but the 9 euro meal was actually a gesture to pubs so that they could operate some of their business at least. To turn it into some sort of attack on pubs when it was actually a 'victory' for them is rewriting history.


----------



## odyssey06

It is expected that the Government will defer the wider reopening of pubs until *August 10 as part of Phase 5 lockdown exit.* Pubs that did not serve food, or 'wet pubs' were marked for reopening on July 20. 
The expected decision comes against the backdrop of rising Covid-19 cases. 

[broken link removed]


----------



## odyssey06

Information from Minister for Health Simon Harris *Stephen Donnelly* on the delay in opening of pubs:
When asked why pubs that don’t serve food should stay closed because of this, Donnelly said that NPHET looked at the international evidence, which showed that when restaurants opened and public health guidelines are followed, “it hasn’t led to an increase in cases”.
But according to international evidence analysed by NPHET, *opening pubs and clubs has led to a “serious rise” in cases.*
When asked the difference between pubs who serve food, which are allowed to open now, and pubs that don’t, which won’t be allowed to open until 10 August at the earliest, Donnelly said the Acting Chief Medical Officer Ronan Glynn was asked about this issue:
_From a disease perspective, they’re not saying it’s restaurants and gastro-pubs, they’re saying it’s restaurants*.* And if the pubs can act as restaurants then they’re restaurants. _









						Health Minister: 'If the R-rate continues at 1.8 for three weeks, we could have 150 cases a day'
					

Donnelly also said that from a disease perspective, gastro pubs are seen as restaurants.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Allpartied

Is there anything to stop pubs from opening with a "food" offer.   A slice of toast, for 9 Euros, comes with two free pints. 
Does the legislation specify food type?


----------



## odyssey06

Allpartied said:


> Is there anything to stop pubs from opening with a "food" offer.   A slice of toast, for 9 Euros, comes with two free pints.
> Does the legislation specify food type?



I think it mentions something to the effect that it must be a substantial meal, such as would be eaten for lunch or dinner.
This is a carry over from earlier licensing legislation.








						A 'significant meal' may be required in a pub once they reopen - but why €9?
					

Pubs that can serve food are allowed reopen from 29 June.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## losttheplot

Can a pub just start selling food if they never have before. Would they need to be inspected first?


----------



## Leo

losttheplot said:


> Can a pub just start selling food if they never have before. Would they need to be inspected first?



They have to register with the HSE in advance and be able to satisfy their inspectors in relation to compliance with food safety regs including food prep and storage areas, staff changing and washing facilities, etc.. Not something they can do overnight or without considerable expense.


----------



## odyssey06

losttheplot said:


> Can a pub just start selling food if they never have before. Would they need to be inspected first?



I believe they would if they are preparing the food there.
However I've seen that Harry Byrnes in D3 have a mobile pizza van (it's actually an old fire brigade engine) in their carpark serving food.
Presumably the van was previously ok'd for serving food.
Possibly a pub could partner with a local pizza delivery firm.


----------



## twofor1

Hotels like pubs are not allowed to sell alcohol except with a meal, even residents cannot have a drink unless it is with a meal.

I was in a well known Nass Road hotel last Wednesday night to pick up a relation. Liverpool were playing Chelsea, the place was packed with red jerseys, all drinking, hardly a plate to be seen anywhere. Mostly non resident males in large groups, according to my relation. Clearly the hotel had no regard for either the rules around selling drink with food only or social distancing.

Currently I am away for a few nights in a hotel in Leitrim. In the restaurant last night we asked for a couple of drinks as we looked at the menu, the very polite waitress said she could not take a drinks order until we actually ordered food.

Fair play to the Leitrim hotel, I would have expected more compliance in Dublin and less in the country, clearly not the case. 

Food was promptly ordered.


----------



## joe sod

@twofor1 clearly you frequent alot of hotels and bars , if you are so worried about your health and social distancing you should stay in your own house, everyone can choose their own level of risk, pubs and hotels are something you choose yourself they are not shops where you absolutely  have no choice.


----------



## twofor1

Joe, clearly you are missing the point. It is not just about the hotel on Wednesday night, I don't have to go there, and will not go anywhere that does not comply with social distancing.

I can't choose my own level of risk when all those who were packed into the hotel bar will then be going home where others probably live, and the following days will be going to shops, work etc, maybe even using public transport.

I have to go to the same shops, work and use the same public transport as those who chose to ignore social distancing rules by being in packed bars.


----------



## odyssey06

Not looking good for pubs to re-open on 10th August when the Health minister is pitching it as schools v pubs:









						Health Minister says random testing at airports is to be introduced
					

Stephen Donnelly refused to be drawn on the impending decision on whether to allow pubs to reopen.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## odyssey06

No change to restrictions... restrictions to remain on pubs and gatherimg numbers.








						Blow to weddings and sport as government extends restrictions on public gatherings
					

Limits on 50 people indoors and 200 people outdoors are to remain.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## odyssey06

Also, for pubs and restaurants currently open and serving food, all customers must be off the premises by 11pm.


----------



## joer

The rest of the pubs should have been allowed to open with the same conditions. There will be even more house parties than before...


----------



## odyssey06

joer said:


> The rest of the pubs should have been allowed to open with the same conditions. There will be even more house parties than before...



I felt they should have allowed them to open but given Gardai the powers to immediately shut down any pub flouting the guidelines on capacity, distancing etc.


----------



## joe sod

I think this government is less decisive than the last one, there are alot of new ministers with little experience and are afraid of being blamed if it goes wrong hence the extreme caution. The last cabinet had some very experienced ministers and Leo Varadker was a doctor who wasn't overly in awe of the health experts, Also they dont want to give the teachers another excuse not to open the schools


----------



## joer

This government is very indecisive alright. But why not open the pubs and hotel bars and ,as Odyssey says, close down the ones who dont obey the rules . I would say that would only  be a very small number.  
Schools just have to be allowed open.


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> I think this government is less decisive than the last one, there are alot of new ministers with little experience and are afraid of being blamed if it goes wrong hence the extreme caution. The last cabinet had some very experienced ministers and Leo Varadker was a doctor who wasn't overly in awe of the health experts, Also they dont want to give the teachers another excuse not to open the schools


I think that's unfair. Opening up too soon would be counterproductive. The decision on this, like the previous ones, will be based on the advice of the experts.


----------



## joe sod

Purple said:


> The decision on this, like the previous ones, will be based on the advice of the experts.


But the "experts" have a very narrow focus, if there was 2 new people with Covid it would be still too risky for them. I think the caretaker government was making better decisions because they had more experience and were not so afraid of public opinion, this new cabinet seems crippled by inexperience and caution.


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> But the "experts" have a very narrow focus, if there was 2 new people with Covid it would be still too risky for them. I think the caretaker government was making better decisions because they had more experience and were not so afraid of public opinion, this new cabinet seems crippled by inexperience and caution.


I agree that the new government is not performing as well but they'll need a few months to find their feet. That can be expected with any government or anyone in a new job. We all get better with experience.


----------



## odyssey06

joe sod said:


> But the "experts" have a very narrow focus, if there was 2 new people with Covid it would be still too risky for them. I think the caretaker government was making better decisions because they had more experience and were not so afraid of public opinion, this new cabinet seems crippled by inexperience and caution.



I'm reading between the lines here but my instinct is that in a country like France they can open places up with strict guidelines and the state has the bodies and powers to enforce that.
Something seems to be lacking here and it's "all or nothing" or guidelines that can be ignored without penalty.


----------



## Leper

I am in no way pushed whether the drinking only pubs reopen in 3.5 weeks time or 52 weeks time. I acknowledge that publicans' means of making a living is more than curtailed, but we need to talk about many Irish drinking habits anyway (perhaps in a different thread). In the meantime let's use this period of near abstinence positively and most of us may be all the better for it.


----------



## joer

I hope you are right Leper that we may be better off for it but only time will tell.


----------



## Purple

Leper said:


> I am in no way pushed whether the drinking only pubs reopen in 3.5 weeks time or 52 weeks time. I acknowledge that publicans' means of making a living is more than curtailed, but we need to talk about many Irish drinking habits anyway (perhaps in a different thread). In the meantime let's use this period of near abstinence positively and most of us may be all the better for it.


I presume you are talking about the move to drinking more wine as home.
If so I can say that it is one of the few occasions that I was ahead of the curve.


----------



## joe sod

Leper said:


> I am in no way pushed whether the drinking only pubs reopen in 3.5 weeks time or 52 weeks time. I acknowledge that publicans' means of making a living is more than curtailed, but we need to talk about many Irish drinking habits anyway


That's a completely separate issue and nothing to do with covid, that would be very bad policy if authorities were shoehorning in restrictions on pub openings under the guise of covid because of their own personal biases with regard to alcohol.


----------



## Sophrosyne

joe sod said:


> But the "experts" have a very narrow focus, if there was 2 new people with Covid it would be still too risky for them.



That's an unhelpful exaggeration.

Their focus is where it always was - keeping the virus reproduction number under control.

This virus is so contagious that a reproduction number above 1 results in an exponential spread. In other words, it snowballs everywhere.

The cases figures for the past week are concerning.

As @Purple has said re-opening too soon would be a mistake and could lead to closures not only of pubs but to other businesses that have just recently re-opened.


----------



## joe sod

Sophrosyne said:


> As @Purple has said re-opening too soon would be a mistake and could lead to closures not only of pubs but to other businesses that have just recently re-opened.


But who is going to pay for all these businesses kept closed indefinitely. Currently they borrowing it from the bond markets, it would be a mistake to assume that they can continue to pay for everything indefinitely from borrowing, there is a time limit on that despite what is going on with the virus and what the doctors say. We don't have a huge sovereign wealth fund where we can afford the luxury of forced business closures going on years.


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> But who is going to pay for all these businesses kept closed indefinitely.



How does the cost of those measures compare to the additional overheads on the public health system and the costs of talking over the private hospitals and all the temp facilities like Citywest? What's the cost of stopping all the screening programs or the near halt in treating other conditions like cancer due to COVID workload?


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> But who is going to pay for all these businesses kept closed indefinitely. Currently they borrowing it from the bond markets, it would be a mistake to assume that they can continue to pay for everything indefinitely from borrowing, there is a time limit on that despite what is going on with the virus and what the doctors say. We don't have a huge sovereign wealth fund where we can afford the luxury of forced business closures going on years.


Yep, the only positive is that everyone is borrowing so all the Central banks will have to print money.


----------



## RichInSpirit

Discovered another tragic unintended consequence of the continuing pub lockdown this evening. Stopped at my local grocery shop which is also a pub. The pub is closed but I managed to procure 2 bottles of beer, one of which was a fancy Smithwicks blonde ale. I arrived home and discovered that my blonde ale is 4 months out of date.
I nearly have it consumed now but I'm worried it may be my second last beer ever.

Just a warning to everyone, check the best before dates if buying from desperate publicans.


----------



## odyssey06

RichInSpirit said:


> Discovered another tragic unintended consequence of the continuing pub lockdown this evening. Stopped at my local grocery shop which is also a pub. The pub is closed but I managed to procure 2 bottles of beer, one of which was a fancy Smithwicks blonde ale. I arrived home and discovered that my blonde ale is 4 months out of date.
> I nearly have it consumed now but I'm worried it may be my second last beer ever.
> 
> Just a warning to everyone, check the best before dates if buying from desperate publicans.



Tis a best before not a must consume by 
Smithwicks production stopped for a while cos of the virus (not sure if it was a cluster or staff were focused on more popular lines), was cleaned out of supermarkets in Dublin for a time.
They must not sell much down your neck of the woods if that's a batch from last year!
The blonde ale is very nice, Belgian style.


----------



## odyssey06

This one slipped by me at the time, Aberdeen re-imposed lockdown due to outbreak linked to pubs.
Note that in Scotland pubs were allowed to re-open without food \ time limits.









						Coronavirus: Aberdeen goes into lockdown as Covid cluster grows
					

Travel restrictions are in force, households cannot meet inside and bars and restaurants have been ordered to close.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## RichInSpirit

Consuming some more of this out of date Blonde Smithwicks. It's a newer batch though, it's only 2 months out of date. 
Didn't kill me the last time so no worries about my demise this time.


----------



## joe sod

I see Leo Varadker making noises now about opening all the pubs soon
_"OTHER countries are living with Covid-19 "better than us" and Ireland needs to rethink its strategy, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has told the Fine Gael parliamentary party. "_
now that they have the schools opened the imperative to keeping pubs closed no longer exists even if the reason was dubious and unique to Ireland. The fact that they only provided a 16million euro compensation package for the entire sector means that they are not serious about continuing the embargo and that the enormous economic costs of some of the corona virus measures must be finally hitting home for the government.
It's also the case that varadker has detected that the public mood has changed on this over the last month and that the public no longer believe the reasons for keeping them closed stack up


----------



## odyssey06

Re-opening from 21st September... except maybe in Dublin and Limerick:








						Pubs given green light to reopen from 21 September
					

Cabinet agreed that pubs which do not serve food can reopen from 21 September, subject to local restrictions.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## 24601

odyssey06 said:


> Re-opening from 21st September... except maybe in Dublin and Limerick:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pubs given green light to reopen from 21 September
> 
> 
> Cabinet agreed that pubs which do not serve food can reopen from 21 September, subject to local restrictions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thejournal.ie



This all boggles the mind. The rate of infection is increasing in the community and the pubs are going to be operating exactly as "gastropubs" have been but just without the goujons. Why couldn't they open on that basis when the others did? Why wait until the 21st? Total and utter nonsense.


----------



## Sunny

24601 said:


> This all boggles the mind. The rate of infection is increasing in the community and the pubs are going to be operating exactly as "gastropubs" have been but just without the goujons. Why couldn't they open on that basis when the others did? Why wait until the 21st? Total and utter nonsense.



Yeah really struggling to understand this on public health grounds. Obviously a political decision based on increased noise around the issue. If they can open now, they could have opened two months ago. It's a nonsense.


----------



## joer

I agree. If pubs can open safely then why not. Look how many pubs serving, food, are under investigation for non compliance . There are always going to be some that will obey and some who will not. Just punish the ones that do not, heavily. But they should have been open along with the others.


----------



## Leo

Sunny said:


> Obviously a political decision



It clearly is, this move will lead to an increase in cases. if it was just a public health decision they'd remain shut. The only way this move might help is to spread the numbers of those who want to go out from congregation in a smaller number of premises that are flouting the current guidelines.


----------



## joe sod

Leo said:


> It clearly is, this move will lead to an increase in cases. if it was just a public health decision they'd remain shut.



But they refused to open them on july 20 when the number of cases was between 10 and 20, so the refusal to open them then was also not a "public health decision", it was for optics. The number of cases then continued to rise and rise despite the closed pubs and are higher now than many countries that have had their pubs open since June. We only recently started mass testing in meat factories, there is still secrecy surrounding testing in direct provision centres, whether it is happening or not. 
The green list is now a joke as Ireland has a higher infection rate than many of the countries on it, the few countries like greece that have a higher rate than us now but are still on the green list.


----------



## odyssey06

Leo said:


> It clearly is, this move will lead to an increase in cases. if it was just a public health decision they'd remain shut. The only way this move might help is to spread the numbers of those who want to go out from congregation in a smaller number of premises that are flouting the current guidelines.



Also, there was no follow-up on the powers re: house parties.
I don't think nonfood pubs are considered any safer than they were, but they are now being judged versus the alternative outlets.


----------



## Purple

odyssey06 said:


> Also, there was no follow-up on the powers re: house parties.
> I don't think nonfood pubs are considered any safer than they were, but they are now being judged versus the alternative outlets.


Gatherings in houses seem to be the problem.


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> ...so the refusal to open them then was also not a "public health decision", it was for optics.



Let's be honest, none of these are public health decisions, they are all political decisions. Some of them just align more closely with public health *advice* than others.


----------



## Leo

Purple said:


> Gatherings in houses seem to be the problem.



I see the localised measures in areas in NI are addressing this issue.


----------



## RichInSpirit

Yeehaah! Had my first pint in my local, post Covid ( probably only mid Covid, but who cares).


----------



## Purple

RichInSpirit said:


> Yeehaah! Had my first pint in my local, post Covid ( probably only mid Covid, but who cares).


I've managed to get to a pub every week or so over the last while. Meeting a friend for a pint has turned into a kind of awkward romantic dinner setting. It does make for a great opportunity to make a slightly homophobic friend really uncomfortable!


----------



## joer

Good for you Purple........I think..


----------



## joe sod

Had my first one in a pub last night myself, pleasant experience. Everyone was just delighted to be in a normal pub again and not a phone in sight, people just wanted to talk normally. Alot of people never bothered with the 9euro meal shenanigans there was alot of resistance to that malarkey, they waited until the normal pubs were opened again.


----------



## RichInSpirit

I wonder did the wet pubs open again?


----------



## Leper

Well I'm thankful to Covid for one thing - the visiting of twelve pubs of Christmas is history. Nothing worse than listening to some apprentice drinking idiots who can't hold their drink while thinking they're upholding some stupid tradition and butting in on every decent conversation in the pub before they arrived.


----------



## joe sod

RichInSpirit said:


> I wonder did the wet pubs open again?


they are not "wet pubs" they do have roofs , maybe the "covid era prohibited saloons" would be more accurate. not to mention the "covid era speakeasys" that have been spawned.


----------



## Purple

Leper said:


> Well I'm thankful to Covid for one thing - the visiting of twelve pubs of Christmas is history. Nothing worse than listening to some apprentice drinking idiots who can't hold their drink while thinking they're upholding some stupid tradition and butting in on every decent conversation in the pub before they arrived.


I think that died out most places a long time ago.


----------



## odyssey06

Restaurants and gastropubs reopen today - here's everything you need to know...

A requirement for meals to be prepared inside the restaurant 
A maximum of six diners per table both indoors and outdoors
Multiple booking for the same party are not permitted
A substantial meal costing no less than €9 must be served in the restaurant or pub operating as a restaurant under the current guidelines from Fáilte Ireland. 
Places serving food and drinks also need to close by 11.30pm. There is no live or loud music permitted. 
A distance of at least two metres is required between tables in a controlled environment such as a restaurant. 
If tables are just one metre apart, a maximum dining time of one hour and 45 minutes should be in place for diners. This limit is only required for restaurants with less than two metres between tables. 

Restaurants and gastropubs reopen today - here's everything you need to know (thejournal.ie)


----------



## jackswift

The restrictions will never be lifted until the people wake up.


----------



## Purple

jackswift said:


> The restrictions will never be lifted until the people wake up.


What does that mean?


----------



## joe sod

looks like Helen McEntee going to reform the long outdated licensing laws and allow later pub openings, proper nightclub licences, and proper theater licenses. I think this is really coming from the Greens and Catherine Martin one of the very few Green party measures i actually agree with


----------



## EasilyAmused

This is a chink of light for the bar trade. 
Pubs have been closed for 11 months so far. 
Grub-pubs closed for half of that time. 

The latter may not reopen til mid-summer, and for outdoor and take-away service only.


----------



## joe sod

i see boris johnson introducing a vaccine passport but pubs will now be excluded from this so you can go to the pub without needing to present a vaccine passport. The UK are opening pubs for outdoor drinking on april 12 and indoor drinking may 17. There is going to be an exodus of young people going to the north and UK for holidays specifically for this reason. Also noteworthy is that you don't need a Covid test to travel from Ireland to UK just one when you are returning except if you re enter through the North.
There is no point in us being silly and trying to shame young people into not going, it simply won't work this summer when the vulnerable are already vaccinated. The government needs to give a timeline of when hospitality can reopen, eg when 60% are vaccinated or such like. It will not be acceptable to have a media circus surrounding nphet and hospitality like last summer.


----------



## noproblem

Even if the pubs were to reopen I genuinely think that people have got so used to drinking at home and in friends houses for a fraction of the price they would pay in pubs, etc, they will definitely  go to pubs far less in the future. The last 12 months has really shown the cost of drinking in pubs a few times a week. 
I'm not blaming publicans in saying this, it's just  reality.


----------



## joe sod

@noproblem yes true but half the cost of pub alcohol is tax and excises going back to the government. During the lockdowns the government was minus this revenue, the covid and lockdowns will have cost the government 30 billion euros, they are going to have to get this back some way. Pubs and indigenous businesses are already on their knees so they can't go after these like before. Where are they going to get the extra revenue? more taxes on groceries and off sales as they have prospered during the lockdowns possibly, also talk of a delivery tax when you order stuff online.


----------



## Protocol

joe sod said:


> @noproblem yes true but half the cost of pub alcohol is tax and excises going back to the government.



This is false.

Beer excise is 55c per pint approx, and has been steady for many years.

Beer excise is similar to UK rates.

The main reason beer is expensive in Irish pubs is the supplier cost is very high, due to the dominance of Diageo and Heineken.

This is well known. Recall the Aviva stadium planning to buy kegs from the UK, as the price here is so high. Recall the row between JD Wetherspoon and Heineken.

Note that Diageo will sell Guinness to Spoons in GB, as it is a more competitive market, but refuse to sell to Spoons here.


----------



## Protocol

Another reason prices are high, especially in Dublin, are rents and overheads.

A large pub in Drumcondra (Quinn's) was 30,000 per month in rent.

1,000 per day!!! That is why the drink is so dear.


----------



## Leo

Protocol said:


> The main reason beer is expensive in Irish pubs is the supplier cost is very high, due to the dominance of Diageo and Heineken.



Yeah, my brother used to run a pub and often stocked up on bottles from the supermarket as retail prices there were often cheaper than he could buy at.


----------



## joe sod

But in fairness to the brewers especially Guinness they have provided a substantial fund and a helpline to help get publicans through this period. It is unprecedented for any business to be forced to close for over a year now, most of the pubs are family run businesses after all. 
Who will pay for  the 30 billion cost of the pandemic though ? Nobody is really talking about that


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> Who will pay for  the 30 billion cost of the pandemic though ? Nobody is really talking about that


The kids and young people who will also pay off the €200 billion and our pensions. Who else?


----------



## EasilyAmused

joe sod said:


> Who will pay for  the 30 billion cost of the pandemic though ? Nobody is really talking about that



Funnily enough, the last €30,000,000,000 was paid, or set to be paid, via austerity measures. 

This €30,000,000,000 is just being put on the books, carry on as normal.


----------



## Purple

EasilyAmused said:


> Funnily enough, the last €30,000,000,000 was paid, or set to be paid, via austerity measures.
> 
> This €30,000,000,000 is just being put on the books, carry on as normal.


I suppose there's a hope that this time there will be a coordinated EU response, a kind of Eurobond.
The whole issue of fiscal union was long-fingered after the 2008 crash but it's still there. I find  the parallels between what the EU is facing and what the first 13 States of the United States faced in relation to monetary union after independence fascinating.


----------



## noproblem

EasilyAmused said:


> Funnily enough, the last €30,000,000,000 was paid, or set to be paid, via austerity measures.
> 
> This €30,000,000,000 is just being put on the books, carry on as normal.


Is it ever ever really paid?


----------



## odyssey06

It's a bit like the 'slate' in the Rovers return... on the 'never never' 

There's a question now. What fictional bar would you most like to have a pint in?
Cheers of Boston?


----------



## joe sod

Purple said:


> I suppose there's a hope that this time there will be a coordinated EU response, a kind of Eurobond.
> The whole issue of fiscal union was long-fingered after the 2008 crash but it's still there.


Its further away than ever, we in Ireland , spain and Italy  might like the Eurobonds alright where our government borrowing is backstopped by Germany and the Nordics. However can you imagine the consternation if welfare or public sector pay had to be cut to German levels and taxation increased for lower paid workers. 
The vaccine rollout shambles also shows that a "coordinated EU response" is not the best way of doing things . There is a big accountability deficit at the heart of the EU system, Ursula Von der Lyons wasn't democratically elected and there is no way of removing her now, The european parliament can't table a no confidence motion like you can in the Dail.


----------



## Sunny

joe sod said:


> Its further away than ever, we in Ireland , spain and Italy  might like the Eurobonds alright where our government borrowing is backstopped by Germany and the Nordics. However can you imagine the consternation if welfare or public sector pay had to be cut to German levels and taxation increased for lower paid workers.
> The vaccine rollout shambles also shows that a "coordinated EU response" is not the best way of doing things . There is a big accountability deficit at the heart of the EU system, Ursula Von der Lyons wasn't democratically elected and there is no way of removing her now, The european parliament can't table a no confidence motion like you can in the Dail.


The EU have issued billions of euro worth of bonds to and done back to back lending with individual countries to pay for covid job protection schemes. Ireland alone has benefited from billions of cheap EU issued debt both from the financial crisis and from covid.  Its still debt though. No matter how cheap it is.


----------



## joe sod

Sunny said:


> Its still debt though. No matter how cheap it is.


Yes thats all true but the debt is irish sovereign debt not european debt which a Eurobond would be. The ECB has stepped in to buy up all those european sovereign debt bonds, it had to step back in again recently when the italian government bonds started going back up in interest rate. How long though can the ECB continue to do this especially with the prospects of inflation on the horizon. Nobody especially the irish government is prepared for rising interest rates even a small bit


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

joe sod said:


> Yes thats all true but the debt is irish sovereign debt not european debt which a Eurobond would be. The ECB has stepped in to buy up all those european sovereign debt bonds, it had to step back in again recently when the italian government bonds started going back up in interest rate. How long though can the ECB continue to do this especially with the prospects of inflation on the horizon. Nobody especially the irish government is prepared for rising interest rates even a small bit


"Inflation on the horizon "? Being hearing this since 2008 and it has never transpired. Can't see it being an issue when the dust settles if anything deflation is more likely.


----------



## joe sod

Paul O Mahoney said:


> "Inflation on the horizon "? Being hearing this since 2008 and it has never transpired. Can't see it being an issue when the dust settles if anything deflation is more likely.


That's true but the commodities and materials are rising big time, ask anyone in the building industry. Their is a global shortage in the metals markets just as the world is about to go a spending boom and governments are ramping up their infrastructure investment. The tech and green booms are very "metals and materials" intensive. That's why the bond markets are trying to push up interest rates they no longer believe the "no inflation" narrative and the central banks have to come in to suppress them again .


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> Their is a global shortage in the metals markets


Yep, the price of aluminium has gone crazy recently.


----------



## Deiseblue

odyssey06 said:


> It's a bit like the 'slate' in the Rovers return... on the 'never never'
> 
> There's a question now. What fictional bar would you most like to have a pint in?
> Cheers of Boston?


I actually drank in what purported to be Cheers in Beacon Hill during the 1994 World Cup , basically a tourist trap.
The exterior was used in the TV show but inside was totally different.
More memorably I was in Larry Murphy’s pub in Baggot Street one quiet weekday night when Norm walked through the door , to our eternal credit the locals forsook the chance to shout “ Noooorm “
The actor had featured in the Kilkenny laughs festival, visited Dublin and had dined in L’ecrivan before visiting Larry.
Nice guy and a good laugh.


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> The vaccine rollout shambles also shows that a "coordinated EU response" is not the best way of doing things . There is a big accountability deficit at the heart of the EU system, Ursula Von der Lyons wasn't democratically elected and there is no way of removing her now,



Can you imagine what a sad state we'd be in if we had been fully reliant on the HSE instead? No accountability there either, and none of them elected....


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> Ursula Von der Lyons wasn't democratically elected


She was proposed by the European Council, which is made up of the EU's heads of State. She was then elected by the European Parliament so yes, she was democratically elected. Your statement is factually incorrect.


----------



## Purple

Paul O Mahoney said:


> "Inflation on the horizon "? Being hearing this since 2008 and it has never transpired. Can't see it being an issue when the dust settles if anything deflation is more likely.


There's been a lot more fuel thrown on the fire in the last 12 months. Increased money supply in the West after 2008 resulted in massive wage inflation in South East Asia. That sink is almost full.


----------



## RedOnion

Purple said:


> There's been a lot more fuel thrown on the fire in the last 12 months. Increased money supply in the West after 2008 resulted in massive wage inflation in South East Asia. That sink is almost full.


The bond markets are pricing in expected inflation in Eurozone of c. 0.8% per annum to end of 2028. There's a lot of money behind those projections.
There is no real prospect of inflation of CPI, although there are massive increases in specific commodities and asset values. The EU wants inflation to rise to about 2%, and they're not able to get it there.

But that's got nothing to do with going for a pint!


----------



## Purple

RedOnion said:


> But that's got nothing to do with going for a pint!


It's a great discussion to have over a pint!


----------



## Purple

RedOnion said:


> The bond markets are pricing in expected inflation in Eurozone of c. 0.8% per annum to end of 2028. There's a lot of money behind those projections.


Isn't it fair to say that the short term (2 year or so) yield curve is more a reflection of stated policy from the FED and ECB rather than economic forecasts whereas the longer term yield curve is a reflection of actual economic forecasts?


----------



## RedOnion

Purple said:


> Isn't it fair to say that the short term (2 year or so) yield curve is more a reflection of stated policy from the FED and ECB rather than economic forecasts whereas the longer term yield curve is a reflection of actual economic forecasts?


Wait til I pour a drink here!!


----------



## Purple

RedOnion said:


> Wait til I pour a drink here!!


I'm starting to well up...


----------



## RedOnion

Purple said:


> Isn't it fair to say that the short term (2 year or so) yield curve is more a reflection of stated policy from the FED and ECB rather than economic forecasts whereas the longer term yield curve is a reflection of actual economic forecasts?


Pint in hand (I wish!!)

There are 2 main types of Government bonds:  'Normal' bonds, and Inflation Linked bonds (OATis in Europe).  OATis pay a return based on the nominal interest rate + the actual CPI.  The overall yield is determined by excess liquidity now, ECB policy, etc., but the difference in the the 2 yields tells us what 'the market' expects inflation to be.

If the yield on a 'normal' bond is 0%, but the yield on an OATis (for the same country / term so there is no difference in risk) is -0.8%, then we can infer that the market expects the CPI to be 0.8% over that term (i.e. the holder will end up with the same 0% total return).  

There's a very large volume of these issued by the French, and the bonds are highly liquid & traded daily so it's a good example to look at.  The current spread is 0.8% to the end of 2028.  That's where 'real money' is betting that inflation will average over the next 7 years - if CPI is higher, they'll make money (vs holding normal bonds), if it's lower they'll lose.

As for interest rates in general, the talk in the market has in some areas moved away from 'lower for longer' to the possibility of 'lower forever'.  There is currently no prospect of inflation being 'stoked' to the level that interest rate policy will change.  The ECB have a target of 2% inflation per annum.  Official Interest rates will only rise if there's a possibility of inflation going above that level.  There are risks of short term liquidity squeezes affecting bond yields outside of that official policy.  At the moment most inflation is in specific areas (an in some cases only bringing commodity prices back to where they were previously), and price rises due to supply issues - e.g. try to buy building timber at the moment in Ireland: prices are changing weekly, but the price rises are primarily due to issues getting felling licences for forestry.


----------



## joe sod

RedOnion said:


> The bond markets are pricing in expected inflation in Eurozone of c. 0.8% per annum to end of 2028. There's a lot of money behind those projections.


Yes but what was their expected inflation target for 2028 a year ago? I bet it was a lot lower than 0.8% therefore just because they predict 0.8% now doesn't mean that they will be correct. The fact is that the bond markets in total are trying to push interest rates up now whereas they were not doing that a year ago therefore things are changing. The future projection of inflation is a moving target, I bet the projection of where the bond markets predict inflation will be in 2028, will be higher next year. 
The important thing to understand is that the narrative put out that there is all this money that the government can spend because the ecb will print it and that it will never have to be paid back is totally false


----------



## RedOnion

joe sod said:


> Yes but what was their expected inflation target for 2028 a year ago? I bet it was a lot lower than 0.8%


Why don't you look it up rather than making statements?


----------



## EasilyAmused

odyssey06 said:


> There's a question now. What fictional bar would you most like to have a pint in?



Bada Bing!


----------



## Purple

EasilyAmused said:


> Bada Bing!


The runners us are;
One Eyed Jack's (most people will have to look that up).
Bob's Country Bunker (great music and chicken wire).

The winner has to be Mos Eisley Cantina, a great place to hire a bounty hunter.
​


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Moes just to meet Barney.


----------



## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Moes just to meet Barney.


TO order a Flamin' Homer and debate the greatest english prime minister with him?
Good times


----------



## EasilyAmused

Don’t forget to play “It’s Raining Men” on the jukebox.


----------



## joe sod

I see they discussing introducing vaccine passports now on prime time. I think it is unfair and discrimatory to bring in vaccine passports when the majority of young people will not be vaccinated. Afterall  the whole hospitality industry was closed down a year ago not because of the danger to the young but to the old. The same logic could have been used then to keep the hospitality open exclusively for young people . Now that the older generation will be vaccinated this summer they want to throw the social solidarity and "we are all in this together" out the window because it suits them now.


----------



## EasilyAmused

I understand your point. I see this is more of a tool to get then anti-vaxxers onboard than reward those vaccinated. 

I’d say there will be no decision made for a while though. 
There has been massive rollout of vaccines in Israel followed by a spike in Covid cases (they have a “green pass” system there).

Same has happened in some US states, I think it’s Minnesota and Minneapolis. Huge rollout there followed by significant cases spikes.


----------



## joe sod

The Israelis only introduced vaccine passports after they had vaccinated most of their population, they had a very fast program remember. We are talking about vaccine passports when we are now only vaccinating over 80s. The anti vax narrative is a red herring as there is a shortage of vaccines and a rat race to get them. Look at the hysteria of the teachers unions, this vaccine passport stuff is fuelling this queue jumping.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

joe sod said:


> We are talking about vaccine passports when we are now only vaccinating over 80s.


But that's not true Joe.....in fact and according to the ECDC database we have given the 18-59 group 303,665 1st doses and 127,246 2nd doses.
The over 80s are 164,001 1st doses and 100,464 2nd doses.

Even the groups 60-79 have more first dose vaccines than the 80 plus group at 187,047 .

It's safe to say that we aren't only vaccinating 80plus.


----------



## Purple

Paul O Mahoney said:


> according to the ECDC database we have given the 18-59 group 303,665 1st doses and 127,246 2nd doses.


I take it a good chunk of them were in the Healthcare sector.


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> The same logic could have been used then to keep the hospitality open exclusively for young people .



Only if the young promised never to go back home to their parents or visit grandparents!


----------



## Sunny

Purple said:


> I take it a good chunk of them were in the Healthcare sector.



Or at least claimed to be!


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Purple said:


> I take it a good chunk of them were in the Healthcare sector.


I would say so it's difficult to reconcile as the original cohorts put up haven't changed. And those with illnesses , my daughter has a friend 21 who qualified and got her first dose 2 weeks ago.


----------



## Sophrosyne

joe sod said:


> I see they discussing introducing vaccine passports now on prime time.


Did they say they were being introduced immediately?


----------



## EasilyAmused

Sophrosyne said:


> Did they say they were being introduced immediately?


Nothing is happening immediately, I’d assume.

AFAIK these vaccine passports won’t be carte blanche. They’ll permit people to attend sports events, e.g. GAA matches. 
Live music is being considered but is more complicated.


----------



## Purple

EasilyAmused said:


> They’ll permit people to attend sports events, e.g. GAA matches.


Are the GAA starting an over 70's League?


----------



## joe sod

Purple said:


> Are the GAA starting an over 70's League?


Exactly they are ignoring the elephant in the room that a majority of the population will still not be vaccinated. At least if they were going to float this they should also clarify how they will allow non vaccinated people attend these things. No mention of free antigen testing for the young, highly irresponsible and stupid. In any case what about the workers at these events , most are young and will be unvaccinated? It's really stupid


----------



## Sophrosyne

@Joe, if there is a proposal to introduce vaccine passports at a future date, then it is the vaccination status of the various cohorts at that date that is relevant and not what it is right now.


----------



## Purple

Sophrosyne said:


> @Joe, if there is a proposal to introduce vaccine passports at a future date, then it is the vaccination status of the various cohorts at that date that is relevant and not what it is right now.


The same questions will apply though. The people who do the service jobs and young and low paid. If older people want their lunches and coffees and hair-do's etc then it will be younger people serving them.


----------



## Sophrosyne

Yes. But lets wait and see how far along vaccination is first.


----------



## Purple

Sophrosyne said:


> Yes. But lets wait and see how far along vaccination is first.


Or just open everything up when everyone over 50 or 40 or whatever are vaccinated.


----------



## Sophrosyne

It is not just older people.

Cohort breakdown of vaccinations up to April 6:


*Cohort**Description**1ST dose**2ND dose**Total*1LTCF residents aged 65+106,327​83,481​189,808​2Frontline HCW245,310​94,307​339,617​3Aged 70 & over276,583​104,067​380,650​4Aged 16-69 at very high risk51,338​145​51,483​


----------



## joe sod

Purple said:


> Are the GAA starting an over 70's League?


Be like the over 75s all priest challenge match from fr Ted except Ted and dougal would not be allowed in fr Jack be ok though   
Just shows how ridiculous the proposal is though . When you look at the hse website for information on when the over 50s will be vaccinated there is none everyone from 17 to 54 is lumped in as one cohort. If that's the case then open everything up when the over 54s are vaccinated


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

joe sod said:


> Be like the over 75s all priest challenge match from fr Ted except Ted and dougal would not be allowed in fr Jack be ok though
> Just shows how ridiculous the proposal is though . When you look at the hse website for information on when the over 50s will be vaccinated there is none everyone from 17 to 54 is lumped in as one cohort. If that's the case then open everything up when the over 54s are vaccinated


Well it's the HSE that provide the data to the ECDC weekly and its not the case on that data.
I'm really at a loss to what is confusing you the data is out there but rather than find it you just use words like ridiculous.

You seem content in attacking the HSE on the tiniest issue.


----------



## RedOnion

Paul O Mahoney said:


> I'm really at a loss to what is confusing you the data is out there but rather than find it you just use words like ridiculous.
> 
> You seem content in attacking the HSE on the tiniest issue.


It's not just the HSE attacks. 

It's much more fun to make claims about anything you want without any factual basis which can be easily disproven. 

"Half the price of a pint is excise and tax"
"The bond markets expect runaway inflation"

And that's just this thread in the last 2 days...


----------



## joe sod

Paul O Mahoney said:


> You seem content in attacking the HSE on the tiniest issue.


Im not attacking the HSE I was simply referring to the data on their website , I have been attacking the government and their proposal or propaganda campaign on vaccine passports and how ridiculous it is when only around 700,000 people are fully vaccinated out of a population of nearly 5 million. I am pouring ridicule and rightly so on their "vaccine passport" proposal because it deserves to be ridiculed. I have never attacked the HSE but I have attacked bodies like Nphet for the ultra caution and extreme conservatism and the government for standing behind nphet.


RedOnion said:


> It's much more fun to make claims about anything you want without any factual basis which can be easily disproven.


Or its much easier to attack the man when he disagrees with the cozy consensus, you introduced a statistic about where the bond markets expect inflation to be in 2028. I said that I bet the inflation projection by the bond markets was lower a year ago for 2028, but it was your statistic not mine , i was just giving an educated opinion based on the fact inflation is now on the horizon , Then i get a smart ass one liner reply


RedOnion said:


> Why don't you look it up rather than making statements?


I was on my lunch break, Its actually not easy to google what bond markets expected inflation to be in 2028 a year ago. Its not easily accessible information which you knew very well.  Its actually difficult in general to find out what financial commentators or organisations were predicting for the future  a number of years later. Stuff gets revised or taken down so you never get to find out whether they were correct.


----------



## Sophrosyne

joe sod said:


> Im not attacking the HSE I was simply referring to the data on their website , I have been attacking the government and their proposal or propaganda campaign on vaccine passports and how ridiculous it is when only around 700,000 people are fully vaccinated out of a population of nearly 5 million.


Where are you getting the figure of "around 700,000" "*fully" *vaccinated.

Why are you assuming vaccine passports are imminent, rather than say in 6 or even 12 months hence?


----------



## RedOnion

joe sod said:


> I was on my lunch break, Its actually not easy to google what bond markets expected inflation to be in 2028 a year ago. Its not easily accessible information which you knew very well. Its actually difficult in general to find out what financial commentators or organisations were predicting for the future a number of years later. Stuff gets revised or taken down so you never get to find out whether they were correct.


Here's the data, daily up to 28th February this year. Took me less than 2 minutes to find this publicly available information. 



			http://www.aft.gouv.fr/files/medias-aft/3_Dette/3.3_OATi/2021-03-01_rend_tit-ref-oati_exl.xls
		




joe sod said:


> i was just giving an educated opinion


Much better than just making stuff up...


----------



## joe sod

RedOnion said:


> Here's the data, daily up to 28th February this year. Took me less than 2 minutes to find this publicly available information.
> 
> http://www.aft.gouv.fr/files/medias-aft/3_Dette/3.3_OATi/2021-03-01_rend_tit-ref-oati_exl.xls


been blocked by my internet security provider as being from an unknown source so its not easily accessible information, would not be coming up on a google search.


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> When you look at the hse website for information on when the over 50s will be vaccinated there is none everyone from 17 to 54 is lumped in as one cohort. If that's the case then open everything up when the over 54s are vaccinated


What evidence are you presenting to demonstrate a significant variation in risk across the 17-54 age range?


----------



## RedOnion

joe sod said:


> its not easily accessible information, would not be coming up on a google search.


Let me help you with that Joe. It's not going to come up if you're searching for "why can't I catch my own shadow?"

Google (without quotes) 'OATi inflation breakeven'. 
I've used those words in my explanation of what inflation linked bonds are.

Possibly the very first result will be this:




__





						Key figures | Agence France Trésor
					






					www.aft.gouv.fr
				



This is the official website of the AFT - the French equivalent of out NTMA.

There's a little graph half way down the page, and a link to the Excel data if the graph isn't clear enough for you.

If you're interested in exploring further, there is also information on 30 year bonds available here (maturing 2047)




__





						Key figures | Agence France Trésor
					






					www.aft.gouv.fr


----------



## RedOnion

Leo said:


> What evidence are you presenting


Evidence??!!
Are you having a laugh Leo? Don't let facts get in the way of a rant.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

joe sod said:


> Im not attacking the HSE I was simply referring to the data on their website , I have been attacking the government and their proposal or propaganda campaign on vaccine passports and how ridiculous it is when only around 700,000 people are fully vaccinated out of a population of nearly 5 million. I am pouring ridicule and rightly so on their "vaccine passport" proposal.


Joe,I posted what was vaccinated according to ECDC and I use that as its standardised across Europe and its easier to compare country by country and its a complete dataset from January and you can easily see trends in a range of things for example vaccines arriving from each producer in each week.
The raw data is provided by the HSE and unlike some other countries have reported every week.
So, the data that's being used is fine, ok the HSE websites can appear to be difficult to read but I have reconciled back from what they are reporting and can say that they are accurate with any differences in reporting is within 1% due to timing.
Nobody is publishing any false data but you still post that 700,000 "are fully vaccinated " which is incorrect 700,000 have had their first doses and 50% of those are under 60 not over 85 as you stated.
Nphet is simply reporting cases and deaths to the public and using that data to extrapolate where we are going, where cases are occurring and what people should do to prevent further outbreaks, behind the scenes they are probably running huge amounts of data, generating a huge amount of scenarios so that they can advise the Government with facts on a path back to normality. They aren't all powerful but they are experts.

Vaccine passports are being discussed on a European and Global level as another tool in the bag to get us back to normal whether they come to be is unknown now and may not happen.


----------



## EasilyAmused

What’s all this got to do with pints?
Is there no moderator?


----------



## RedOnion

EasilyAmused said:


> Is there no moderator?


The irony of you looking for more moderators action will be lost on most people, but let's say @Leo and @Brendan Burgess are busy enough monitoring previously banned users who keep re-registering under new names... 

Do you really want more of their attention?


----------



## EasilyAmused

RedOnion said:


> The irony of you looking for more moderators action will be lost on most people, but let's say @Leo and @Brendan Burgess are busy enough monitoring previously banned users who keep re-registering under new names...
> 
> Do you really want more of their attention?



What can I say, but I’m easily amused.


----------



## RedOnion

EasilyAmused said:


> What can I say, but I’m easily amused.


Indeed. The choice of username wasn't lost on me.


----------



## joe sod

RedOnion said:


> Let me help you with that Joe. It's not going to come up if you're searching for "why can't I catch my own shadow?"
> 
> Google (without quotes) 'OATi inflation breakeven'.
> I've used those words in my explanation of what inflation linked bonds are.


Its your attitude and smart ass put downs that are the issue, it is obvious that you are well versed on bonds and are possibly working in that area so you have access to specific sites for this information.  You said it would only take 2 minutes from a simple google search, but thats not the case because you have to know the exact words to search for, then it gets blocked by my internet security as from "unknown source" . You have access to privileged information due to your profession and are using that to smack down other contributors like me. There is alot of that lately on askaboutmoney actually,


----------



## RedOnion

joe sod said:


> possibly working in that area so you have access to specific sites for this information


No I don't work in the area Joe.

You were the person who initially claimed that the bond markets are predicting inflation. I used a publicly available resource to challenge your claim with actual inflation predictions that can be inferred from live bond trades. You make a lot of statements as matter of fact when you are really just making what you described as 'educated guesses'. I'd love to discuss it further, but on a factual basis. 

If you Google 'bond inflation breakeven' or 'bond inflation indicators' you'll find lots of resources on the subject. You might need to add some other search criteria to arrive just at the Eurozone ones. "OATi" is the only term that wouldn't be guessed by someone with just a passing interest in the subject.



joe sod said:


> You have access to privileged information due to your profession and are using that to smack down other contributors like me.


I don't have access to any privileged information. It's a number of years since I even had access to a Bloomberg terminal. I apologise if you see my posts as a personal attack, or an attempt to 'smack down other contributors' like yourself. However, I don't see what is gained by completely making things up and stating them as facts.


----------



## joe sod

RedOnion said:


> You were the person who initially claimed that the bond markets are predicting inflation. I used a publicly available resource to challenge your claim with actual inflation predictions that can be inferred from live bond trades. You make a lot of statements as matter of fact when you are really just making what you described as 'educated guesses'.


You introduced that particular statistic which I made an "educated guess" on but the central thrust of my argument is that bond markets are trying to move up interest rates especially on troubled country bonds like Italy and one of the reasons is the risk of higher inflation than previously calculated. The ECB had to step back into the markets in March to buy government bonds especially in countries like Italy to prevent interest rates rising, here is an actual widely available source like bloomberg not a spurious financial sector site that was blocked by my internet security









						ECB Boosts Bond-Buying After Pledge to Fight Yield Gains
					






					www.bloomberg.com
				




In any case the bond markets don't know where inflation will be in 2028 it is an "educated guess" thats why it was interesting to find out from your statistic where they expected inflation to be last year in 2028. The bond markets didn't know the result of the financial crises in 2008 either, its just their opinion of the future  . Are you saying I am not allowed to give an opinion on whether I think they are correct. I know you hold what the bond markets might be saying with a holy reverance but they are not Gods and a lot of bond buying is driven by the central banks and financial institutions that are compelled to buy them no matter what the interest rate is.


----------



## RedOnion

joe sod said:


> You introduced that particular statistic which I made an "educated guess" on but the central thrust of my argument is that bond markets are trying to move up interest rates especially on troubled country bonds like Italy and one of the reasons is the risk of higher inflation than previously calculated.


Sorry Joe, let me step back through the sequence of events.
It was you that initially made the claim that the bond markets were pushing up interest rates because they no longer believe in the "no inflation" narrative.  Here's your exact quote: 


joe sod said:


> That's why the bond markets are trying to push up interest rates they no longer believe the "no inflation" narrative and the central banks have to come in to suppress them again .


It was after this that I said anything about bonds or inflation.



joe sod said:


> The ECB had to step back into the markets in March to buy government bonds especially in countries like Italy to prevent interest rates rising, here is an actual widely available source like bloomberg


That's absolutely fantastic Joe.  But did you realise the word 'inflation' isn't mentioned once?  When you look at the widening spread between German and Italian bonds it tells us nothing about inflation, but it more to do with a perceived credit risk (if you look, the spread was at a low point immediately after the new Italian government was formed back in February).



joe sod said:


> not a spurious financial sector site that was blocked by my internet security


Spurious???   Do you know the meaning of the word?
It's the official website of the French debt management agency.  The ".gouv.fr" extension means it's an official French Government website.

Since you seem to be having trouble accessing the site, here are the inferred inflation predictions, using French 10 year OATis with a 2028 maturity for selected dates:

15/01/2020 1.00%  (i.e. 'pre Covid')
10/4/202 0.36% (exactly 1 year ago: it's low point was actually on 23/3/2020 at 0.02% when it looks like we could be potentially entering recession territory)
26/2/2021 0.84%



joe sod said:


> In any case the bond markets don't know where inflation will be in 2028 it is an "educated guess" thats why it was interesting to find out from your statistic where they expected inflation to be last year in 2028.


Fully agreed.  It's all just predictions, and reality could turn out very different.
However, I find your line of argument interesting.  It was you who first said that the bond markets were pushing interest rates up because they expect inflation.  Yet when you're provided with evidence of what the bond markets are actually predicting, suddenly the argument changes to "the bond markets are wrong".



joe sod said:


> Are you saying I am not allowed to give an opinion on whether I think they are correct. I know you hold what the bond markets might be saying with a holy reverance but they are not Gods and a lot of bond buying is driven by the central banks and financial institutions that are compelled to buy them no matter what the interest rate is.


To be clear, I believe everyone is entitled to their opinion.  

Do I hold the bond markets opinion with a Holy Reverence?  No.  However, I do give a considerable amount of weight to a market which is backed by hundreds of billions of Euro plus additional trillions of Euro of derivatives.  There is an extensive derivatives market outside of the bond market where the bets are all going the same way.  If you wanted to you could call the derivatives trading desk in Barclays on Monday and they would take the other side of an inflation bet for you.  The inflation element has very little to do with the ECB being forced to buy bonds.  I would expect that the market is pretty efficient at making predictions, based on the information available at that point in time.

You are of course entitled to your opinion, but please forgive me if I don't give it the same weight.

What seems to be missing in the whole thought process is that the ECB actually WANTS a bit of inflation.  So when they step in to keep borrowing costs low, it's not to stop inflation but to try trigger it.  As you can see from the data above, the inflation expectation was at it's lowest point before the ECB stepped in with a bond buying programme - interest yields went down, and the inferred inflation prediction went up.



I'm happy to continue to discuss this further, but if you're going to argue with me by going down a "you said, I said" rabbit hole, please have the courtesy to be factual.  And you might make it clearer in your posts what is opinion vs what you are stating as fact then I might refrain from correcting you where what you really intended as an 'educated guess'.

If at any point you think I've overstepped a line, there's a little 'Report' option at the bottom of all my posts so that you can report them for a moderators attention.


----------



## Deiseblue

After reading much of the above I'm definitely going for a pint as soon as humanly possible and I would suggest that others are definitely in need of a bit of socialising as well .


----------



## joe sod

RedOnion said:


> Spurious??? Do you know the meaning of the word?
> It's the official website of the French debt management agency. The ".gouv.fr" extension means it's an official French Government website.
> 
> Since you seem to be having trouble accessing the site, here are the inferred inflation predictions, using French 10 year OATis with a 2028 maturity for selected dates:
> 
> 15/01/2020 1.00% (i.e. 'pre Covid')
> 10/4/202 0.36% (exactly 1 year ago: it's low point was actually on 23/3/2020 at 0.02% when it looks like we could be potentially entering recession territory)
> 26/2/2021 0.84%


Thanks very much for that RedOnion I know you are highly knowledgeable in this area  . You went to alot of trouble to post that and I acknowledge that.

The reason why I even discussed this topic of interest rates and inflation in a thread about  _when can we go for a drink again  _is that it is all dependent and actually dismissively so by people who think that this situation can continue indefinitely and that there is no great urgency in getting normal businesses back running. The government can continue to borrow the money on the bond markets and never have to think about interest rates rising again. Thats why I have been highly critical of nphet and the government for  the cavalier approach to opening dates as if the cost of an extra week of closed businesses doesn't matter it can just be added to the national debt with no consequence


----------



## EasilyAmused

odyssey06 said:


> There's a question now. What fictional bar would you most like to have a pint in?



Tigh Thaidhg.
It’s be deadly to meet Thaidhg and a Brucie Bonus if Eileen Dunne was there too.


----------



## RedOnion

joe sod said:


> Thats why I have been highly critical of nphet and the government for the cavalier approach to opening dates as if the cost of an extra week of closed businesses doesn't matter it can just be added to the national debt with no consequence


Bringing it back to the pint, and the impact on the economy.

I'm trying to be careful here, and only talking about the impact on a national economy scale. I realise there's a huge impact on individual business owners and I want to be clear I'm not being dismissive of that.

Do we know how much the pub trade adds to tax receipts? Is the economy really dependent on pubs? Specifically, have you looked at the impact on excise receipts?


----------



## noproblem

EasilyAmused said:


> Tigh Thaidhg.
> It’s be deadly to meet Thaidhg and a Brucie Bonus if Eileen Dunne was there too.


I actually went to school with him. 2 years ahead of me but remember him well.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

RedOnion said:


> Bringing it back to the pint, and the impact on the economy.
> 
> I'm trying to be careful here, and only talking about the impact on a national economy scale. I realise there's a huge impact on individual business owners and I want to be clear I'm not being dismissive of that.
> 
> Do we know how much the pub trade adds to tax receipts? Is the economy really dependent on pubs? Specifically, have you looked at the impact on excise receipts?


There's a pdf online by the drinks industry but it's from 2013 and says spending in 2012 was about €7bn including off-licence sales.
Average employees just over 6 per pub .
It's 51 pages long and goes into excise/tax etc but it's too early for that to be analysed

Of course there is a cost of drinking to health, society and so on but details of that seems to be a secret.


----------



## RedOnion

Paul O Mahoney said:


> It's 51 pages long and goes into excise/tax etc but it's too early for that to be analysed


Yes, you'd need a pint before reading that!

But we have data in the impact, to public finances, of the closures last year.
Revenue publish alcohol excise receipts quarterly. Overall for 2020 it was down 3% on prior year (roughly 1.2bn receipts in 2020). There was a huge switch between beer & wine, reflecting people's choice re drinking at home. But there is the same excise income for the state for both on and off sales.

VAT receipts are obviously impacted because prices are lower.



Paul O Mahoney said:


> Average employees just over 6 per pub .


Very few of them paying tax, as they mainly are part-time and their tax credits cover any tax due.

A lot of people are surprised when they learn that income tax receipts held up last year (only down 1% on 2019) despite the number of people who were out of work. It's a result of our progressive tax system.


People don't like hearing it, but opening pubs or shops a month earlier doesn't really change the 'income' line at a national finances level. It will reduce the expenditure on the social welfare supports. But pubs aren't the backbone of the national economy.


----------



## EasilyAmused

noproblem said:


> I actually went to school with him. 2 years ahead of me but remember him well.



He definitely comes across as unforgettable!
It’s only recent I became aware he’s married to Eileen Dunne.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

RedOnion said:


> Yes, you'd need a pint before reading that!
> 
> But we have data in the impact, to public finances, of the closures last year.
> Revenue publish alcohol excise receipts quarterly. Overall for 2020 it was down 3% on prior year (roughly 1.2bn receipts in 2020). There was a huge switch between beer & wine, reflecting people's choice re drinking at home. But there is the same excise income for the state for both on and off sales.
> 
> VAT receipts are obviously impacted because prices are lower.
> 
> 
> Very few of them paying tax, as they mainly are part-time and their tax credits cover any tax due.
> 
> A lot of people are surprised when they learn that income tax receipts held up last year (only down 1% on 2019) despite the number of people who were out of work. It's a result of our progressive tax system.
> 
> 
> People don't like hearing it, but opening pubs or shops a month earlier doesn't really change the 'income' line at a national finances level. It will reduce the expenditure on the social welfare supports. But pubs aren't the backbone of the national economy.


I know of a few " students" who were working part-time in various pubs in my locality that were getting more on PUP than they were getting from working. 

As you say most of these wouldn't have high enough taxable income to pay tax .its going to be very interesting to see what Revenue will be saying once things get back to normal as taxable income will be considerably higher. 

Yes it's not an "essential " part of our economy but without the pubs other pieces like tourism would suffer. I was in Doolin 2 years ago and there must have been 30 coaches outside O Connors and it would appear they were all in the pub despite the overflowing loos


----------



## odyssey06

You have to do more for the exchequer.

When drinking at home only top shelf whiskies and fine wines... no bargain basement buys.


----------



## RedOnion

odyssey06 said:


> You have to do more for the exchequer.
> 
> When drinking at home only top shelf whiskies and fine wines... no bargain basement buys.


It's another justification!

Joking aside, I'd love to see the impact on the craft beer industry, and if there's been an increase in employment. I'm not alone in being happy to drink whatever Diageo decide my local is allowed to sell, but when drinking at home like a much more varied selection than the generic muck that is least offensive to all tastes.


----------



## EasilyAmused

odyssey06 said:


> ... no bargain basement buys.


These have been banned (but I’ve noticed some retailers getting around it by stealth).


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

RedOnion said:


> It's another justification!
> 
> Joking aside, I'd love to see the impact on the craft beer industry, and if there's been an increase in employment. I'm not alone in being happy to drink whatever Diageo decide my local is allowed to sell, but when drinking at home like a much more varied selection than the generic muck that is least offensive to all tastes.


My closest friend who lives in the UK has decided to start collecting craft beer cans due to their unique designs. Best excuse I've heard to justify drinking beer, but some of the designs are fantastic and some beers 7/8% .


----------



## joe sod

Leo varadker started talking about "outdoor dining" again end of may or something. They better not be thinking of doing the same as last year and discriminate against different hospitality venues based on dining or 9 euro meal silliness. I think the hospitality sector will put up a big fight this year and wont accept any rubbish from government or nphet. The authority of government has been seriously diminished now over the shambles of mandatory hotel quarantine and getting wrapped over the fingers by the european commision. With the UK and the north fully open this summer summer keeping hospitality largely closed again will not be tolerated by the public.


----------



## Sophrosyne

joe sod said:


> I think the hospitality sector will put up a big fight this year and wont accept any rubbish from government or nphet.



Last May, did you not ridicule the Government and NPHET for their cautious and phased lifting of restrictions because, in your opinion, a _*second *_coronavirus wave was "highly unlikely".

You have never explained precisely how you arrived at that opinion.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

joe sod said:


> They better not be thinking of doing the same as last year and discriminate against different hospitality venues based on dining or 9 euro meal silliness.


Well many pubs worked around that requirement. Additionally the UK now have a similar rule. 
Are you advocating just open the pubs and let people mingle and have multiple contacts indoors?
If you are you really haven't understood how this virus transmits and infects people.


----------



## joe sod

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Well many pubs worked around that requirement. Additionally the UK now have a similar rule.
> Are you advocating just open the pubs and let people mingle and have multiple contacts indoors?
> If you are you really haven't understood how this virus transmits and infects people.


Yes the UK brought that in towards the end of last year but only after they had failed to curb their covid numbers, it was a means to keep hospitality open but it was never pursued with the zealousness of the irish authorities last summer.  It just put unnecessary cost and headache on hospitality who had to spend alot of money on kitchens and "chefs" and then got closed down anyway after a few weeks at Christmas.
It was pursued by the irish authorities as if it was a commandment handed down from on high to Moses (aka Tony Holohan)


----------



## Merowig

Any common bond will be specific to Covid. If at all as the common Covid Bonds are now blocked till Germany’s Supreme Court decided on it.


----------



## joe sod

Sophrosyne said:


> Last May, did you not ridicule the Government and NPHET for their cautious and phased lifting of restrictions because, in your opinion, a _*second *_coronavirus wave was "highly unlikely".


The "abundance of caution" principal  pursued by nphet focussed exclusively on coronavirus cases .It costed billions of extra euros and should have been relaxed when the case numbers dropped to the low numbers by june. It ultimately failed anyway because we still had the massive upsurge at christmas anyway. What was the point in keeping hospitality mostly closed during summer they just created a massive pent up demand for it by Christmas


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> It just put unnecessary cost and headache on hospitality who had to spend alot of money on kitchens and "chefs" and then got closed down anyway after a few weeks at Christmas.



No one forced pubs to pretend to be restaurants. The vintners lobbied hard for the pubs that served food to be treated the same as restaurants which were shown to be lower risk. The government acquiesced and some pubs of their own volition installed kitchens to they could open as a restaurant. The blame for shutting them down quickly lays squarely on the publicans who were failing to implement basic distancing or stick to the rules and their customers, remember the scenes of people dancing on bars?


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> What was the point in keeping hospitality mostly closed during summer they just created a massive pent up demand for it by Christmas



You're right, it should have remained closed all the way through.


----------



## joe sod

I see Tony holohan back just as we are on the verge of reopening the economy, Tony holohan is a big fish and a well established hawk on the  hospitality sector, however the government needs to take full control now and not defer back to nphet the whole time again. We simply can no longer afford this level of lockdown s which were after all only introduced originally to "level the curve". The hospitality sector needs to be fully reopened this summer absolutely no nonsense about dining and 9 euro meals this summer, totally unacceptable.


----------



## EmmDee

joe sod said:


> The hospitality sector needs to be fully reopened this summer absolutely no nonsense about dining and 9 euro meals this summer, totally unacceptable.



You've made this comment many times. By "hospitality sector" you must mean pubs. The "nonsense" about dining last Summer was a proxy to (a) maintain distance and size of groups and (b) limit time spent indoors. So even if there is no €9 requirement, there will still be something to address the two requirements.

If by getting rid of the "nonsense" you hope to go back to full pubs, I suspect you need to prepare yourself for disappointment.


----------



## Leo

EmmDee said:


> If by getting rid of the "nonsense" you hope to go back to full pubs, I suspect you need to prepare yourself for disappointment.



Absolutely, a full reopening of all pubs any time soon will inevitably lead to another wave and another extended stint in level 5.


----------



## joe sod

EmmDee said:


> If by getting rid of the "nonsense" you hope to go back to full pubs, I suspect you need to prepare yourself for disappointment.


No of course I didn't mean that, I meant that the ridiculous distinction between different sectors of hospitality and the 9euro meal nonsense, and it was nonsense. We should follow what they are doing in UK and Europe rather than going on a solo run again. It just ended up being a media circus along with the obligatory witch hunt and did not contribute anything to curbing the numbers
We need to get the city of Dublin functioning normally again or else we end up with a crime ridden Detroit with anti social behaviour, urination and worse on the streets and an upsurge in violence and stabbings.


----------



## EmmDee

joe sod said:


> No of course I didn't mean that, I meant that the ridiculous distinction between different sectors of hospitality and the 9euro meal nonsense, and it was nonsense. We should follow what they are doing in UK and Europe rather than going on a solo run again. It just ended up being a media circus along with the obligatory witch hunt and did not contribute anything to curbing the numbers
> We need to get the city of Dublin functioning normally again or else we end up with a crime ridden Detroit with anti social behaviour, urination and worse on the streets and an upsurge in violence and stabbings.


 Can you say what you mean then. You have a problem with "€9 Euro meal nonsense". So that implies hospitality which doesn't involve meals - so if not pubs what are you talking about.

And the fever dream about crime and urine ridden streets of Dublin - that's some leap. What will happen will be limited capacity indoor venues (maybe 25%) with time limits and outdoor activity. Not exactly a Judge Dredd dystopia.

Might want to start adjusting to that idea - save yourself the angst and anguish in the Summer


----------



## Purple

We do need to remember that if we observe social distancing the chances of becoming infected outdoor is extremely low. In our case outdoor infections account of about one in one thousand cases.

The problem from the start, the problem at Christmas and the problem now is people congregating in each other's homes, not shops or the limited opening of pubs and restaurants we saw over Christmas. That said having packed pubs now would be a really stupid idea but I see no issue with outside dining, beer gardens etc. as long as numbers are controlled and rules are followed.


----------



## EmmDee

Purple said:


> The problem from the start, the problem at Christmas and the problem now is people congregating in each other's homes, not shops or the limited opening of pubs and restaurants we saw over Christmas. That said having packed pubs now would be a really stupid idea but I see no issue with outside dining, beer gardens etc. as long as numbers are controlled and rules are followed.



Agreed - I suspect by next month they'll loosen up outdoor social activities. I'd say most towns / cities are planning a lot of outdoor tables / pedestrianised zones. Already happening a bit


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> No of course I didn't mean that, I meant that the ridiculous distinction between different sectors of hospitality and the 9euro meal nonsense, and it was nonsense.


If it was nonsense then blame the pubs that tried to pretend they were restaurants then failed to implement the measures they said they would.



joe sod said:


> We need to get the city of Dublin functioning normally again or else we end up with a crime ridden Detroit with anti social behaviour, urination and worse on the streets and an upsurge in violence and stabbings.


Are you seriously claiming that not opening the pubs just yet will turn Dublin into the next Detroit? When alcohol consumption was a significant factor in pre-covid violent public order offences? When violent crime, public order, organised crime, and property damage offence rates have all fallen with the closure of pubs? 

We need to get the economy open again, but not just for a few weeks until the next wave. Given the sharp spikes in cases in areas such as Cavan where pubs opened after major GAA games, perhaps the pubs should be the last thing to be opened.


----------



## Purple

Leo said:


> perhaps the pubs should be the last thing to be opened.


An Jasus, don't be sayin' that!


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

EmmDee said:


> Agreed - I suspect by next month they'll loosen up outdoor social activities. I'd say most towns / cities are planning a lot of outdoor tables / pedestrianised zones. Already happening a bit


Look at pubs in the UK they have invested heavily in "outdoor " areas and they paid themselves. 
I believe Princess Street in Cork was a great success last year.


----------



## joe sod

Leo said:


> Are you seriously claiming that not opening the pubs just yet will turn Dublin into the next Detroit? When alcohol consumption was a significant factor in pre-covid violent public order offences? When violent crime, public order, organised crime, and property damage offence rates have all fallen with the closure of pubs?


The fact that pubs , hospitality and other businesses are closed means that there are no places for people to go to the toilet so they are doing it on the streets, no footfall means that the city is becoming shabby , outdoor drinking, juveniles fighting in the city centre stabbings etc around Samuel beckett bridge and the docklands etc. This is happening as a result of the lockdowns .


----------



## noproblem

The dogs in the street know there's drinking "barns", "shebeens", call them what you want, all over the place. Thankfully not my hobby, but if it was i'd have to say I would be tempted. Ah, in the bloody middle of it i'd be to tell the truth  .
Why don't I report them? Nah, things are bad enough.


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> The fact that pubs , hospitality and other businesses are closed means that there are no places for people to go to the toilet so they are doing it on the streets, no footfall means that the city is becoming shabby , outdoor drinking, juveniles fighting in the city centre stabbings etc around Samuel beckett bridge and the docklands etc. This is happening as a result of the lockdowns .



OK, so you do realise that lower footfall just makes some of these acts more visible to the public, but that rates of all those crimes are down since the pubs were shut? 

It would be understandable if frustration resulting from extended lockdowns is fuelling some level of violent and public order offences, but the fact remains that there were a lot more such offences taking place when the pubs were open. When pubs were open you used to see way more public urination on weekend nights as people spilled out of bars to head home.


----------



## TinyChamp

noproblem said:


> The dogs in the street know there's drinking "barns", "shebeens", call them what you want, all over the place. Thankfully not my hobby, but if it was i'd have to say I would be tempted. Ah, in the bloody middle of it i'd be to tell the truth  .
> Why don't I report them? Nah, things are bad enough.


...because you don't like reporting on your neighbours.


----------



## noproblem

TinyChamp said:


> ...because you don't like reporting on your neighbours.


Sort of. Not neighbours but I do know them. Nice ordinary people who would do anything for you. Yeah, yeah, I know what people might say but there you go.


----------



## Purple

noproblem said:


> Nice ordinary people who would do anything for you.


...including give you Covid.


----------



## noproblem

Purple said:


> ...including give you Covid.


Goes without saying. A bit obvious I would have thought.


----------



## odyssey06

Guidelines for hospitality published...


A maximum of six people aged 13 years and over will be allowed per table when restaurants, pubs and cafés open next month. However, Covid-19 safety guidelines issued this morning by Fáilte Ireland also say that when accompanying children under the age of 12 are included, up to 15 people will be allowed at the one table.


Tables will have to be at least one metre apart both outdoors and indoors under the refreshed rules.
Inside, one-metre distancing will only be allowed if the table is pre-booked and all public health measures are adhered to, including contact tracing, ventilation and enhanced hygiene protocols.
There will be no limit on how long customers can remain eating and drinking outdoors, nor will there be a limit on duration indoors where tables are at least two metres apart.
However, if tables are only one metre away from each other visits will be limited to one hour and 45 minutes.


There will no longer be a requirement for customers to purchase a meal worth a minimum of €9.
However, only table service will be allowed both inside and outside. Premises, including outdoor areas, will have to be cleared of all customers by 11.30pm.
There are also measures to control noise levels, with no live or loud music permitted.
There is also a strong emphasis on the importance of ventilation of indoor spaces in the guidelines









						Six people aged over 13 allowed at indoor dining tables
					

A maximum of six people aged 13 years and over will be allowed per table when restaurants, pubs and cafés open next month.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> Guidelines for hospitality published...
> 
> 
> A maximum of six people aged 13 years and over will be allowed per table when restaurants, pubs and cafés open next month. However, Covid-19 safety guidelines issued this morning by Fáilte Ireland also say that when accompanying children under the age of 12 are included, up to 15 people will be allowed at the one table.
> 
> 
> Tables will have to be at least one metre apart both outdoors and indoors under the refreshed rules.
> Inside, one-metre distancing will only be allowed if the table is pre-booked and all public health measures are adhered to, including contact tracing, ventilation and enhanced hygiene protocols.
> There will be no limit on how long customers can remain eating and drinking outdoors, nor will there be a limit on duration indoors where tables are at least two metres apart.
> However, if tables are only one metre away from each other visits will be limited to one hour and 45 minutes.
> 
> 
> There will no longer be a requirement for customers to purchase a meal worth a minimum of €9.
> However, only table service will be allowed both inside and outside. Premises, including outdoor areas, will have to be cleared of all customers by 11.30pm.
> There are also measures to control noise levels, with no live or loud music permitted.
> There is also a strong emphasis on the importance of ventilation of indoor spaces in the guidelines
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Six people aged over 13 allowed at indoor dining tables
> 
> 
> A maximum of six people aged 13 years and over will be allowed per table when restaurants, pubs and cafés open next month.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rte.ie


I'm surprised that there no mention of premises that have screening in place between tables.
Where I go for a pint they invested heavily in that and it was accepted by all and it did make you feel safer, eventough there probably isn't any reason for that feeling.

It's a start I suppose many will welcome it and there will be the usual outcry from others.


----------



## Bronco Lane

I started off this thread back in May 2020....

I have only been to a pub once since then to have an outdoor pint.    I have to say I don't think I will be sampling any more in the near future.

Have you?


----------



## Ceist Beag

Same as that Bronco - one pub visit during the summer where we sat outdoors. It was lovely, but I certainly won't be going near one over the coming months.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

I'm lucky my local has a pretty good outdoor space with a few heaters and TVs .
I enjoy a few 3 on a Sunday with my journal planning the week ahead, and seeing the stuff I didn't complete the previous week. 

I need a few hours of my time and allow the brain concentrate on other stuff.


----------



## Purple

Bronco Lane said:


> I started off this thread back in May 2020....
> 
> I have only been to a pub once since then to have an outdoor pint.    I have to say I don't think I will be sampling any more in the near future.
> 
> Have you?


I'm averaging around one trip a week. Usually outdoors. 
Ye can't live like a monk!


----------



## joe sod

Yea the same I have been out most weekends, also attended pubs with music. aswell.
To paraphrase Clint Eastwood " There are two types of people in this world, those that worry about Covid and those that don't"


----------



## Purple

I was in three pubs in Dublin on Saturday last (I know).
Two were checking Covid Certs and people were wearing masks when moving around etc.
The third, with a close association with The Dubliners, made no attempt to control anything. People were standing everywhere, singing and milling around and not one person other than staff was masked. We didn't feel comfortable there and we left after one drink.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Well I'm in my local long day of dentistry for the wife,  but they got audited by the HSE yesterday and it was clean but today its operating theatre standards.  

Two lads , students I'd say, walked in no cert no entry and no masks,  they are out in the smoking area with me, giving out. 

C'EST la vie mon ami.

Was in Dublin earlier had a coffee while she was busy, I waited until someone to check my vaccine passport,  nobody came, a coffee at €4.30 and this was on Baggot Street


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

joe sod said:


> Yea the same I have been out most weekends, also attended pubs with music. aswell.
> To paraphrase Clint Eastwood " There are two types of people in this world, those that worry about Covid and those that don't"


Did Clint Eastwood ever say that,  or anything like it? either in movies or life. 

He was mayor of Carmel , CA , and was tough on chewing gum , Covid-19 wasn't on the radar.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Purple said:


> I was in three pubs in Dublin on Saturday last (I know).
> Two were checking Covid Certs and people were wearing masks when moving around etc.
> The third, with a close association with The Dubliners, made no attempt to control anything. People were standing everywhere, singing and milling around and not one person other than staff was masked. We didn't feel comfortable there and we left after one drink.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Well you did say earlier up the thread " can't be a monk" , and you certainly proved that......

Hope ye enjoyed it


----------



## joe sod

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Did Clint Eastwood ever say that,  or anything like it? either in movies or life.
> 
> He was mayor of Carmel , CA , and was tough on chewing gum , Covid-19 wasn't on the radar.


No he said
 "there are 2 kinds of people in this world, those that have loaded shotguns and those that don't"
Spoken in his quintessential soft accent in one of those spaghetti westerns


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> No he said
> "there are 2 kinds of people in this world, those that have loaded shotguns and those that don't"
> Spoken in his quintessential soft accent in one of those spaghetti westerns


Those 'two types of people' lines always reminds me of, 'There are three types of people in the world, those who can count and those that can't'.


----------



## Firefly

Purple said:


> Those 'two types of people' lines always reminds me of, 'There are three types of people in the world, those who can count and those that can't'.


Or, there are 10 types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who don't


----------



## justintime

From someone not that good at counting I wouldn't think the vaccine is very effective.It is  hard to keep blaming the unvaccinated (which I have given up doing) when figures are so high including cases ,hospitalisations and sadly deaths.


----------



## Purple

justintime said:


> From someone not that good at counting I wouldn't think the vaccine is very effective.It is  hard to keep blaming the unvaccinated (which I have given up doing) when figures are so high including cases ,hospitalisations and sadly deaths.


US CDC figures indicate that 98% of hospitalisations and 99% of deaths are amongst the unvaccinated. 
Those numbers aren't hard to understand.


----------



## justintime

From someone not that good at counting I wouldn't think the vaccine is very effective.It is  hard to keep blaming the unvaccinated (which I have given up doing) when figures are so high including cases ,hospitalisations and sadly deaths.


Purple said:


> US CDC figures indicate that 98% of hospitalisations and 99% of deaths are amongst the unvaccinated.
> Those numbers aren't hard to understand.


Them figures  are not even close to Irelands and I presume you are not implying so.I wouldn't believe award of it.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

justintime said:


> From someone not that good at counting I wouldn't think the vaccine is very effective.It is  hard to keep blaming the unvaccinated (which I have given up doing) when figures are so high including cases ,hospitalisations and sadly deaths.


Well all the data is available,  Germany has 67% vaccinated and now are fighting a massive breakout of the virus and the vast majority of these cases and subsequent hospitalizations are unvaccinated. Same in Russia, Ukraine,  US, Japan,  Brazil to name a few countries that have high hesitancy. 

As stated numerous times here and generally the vaccines can only do so much, we citizens must do our bit to , ie mask wearing, washing hands and social distancing .


----------



## odyssey06

justintime said:


> From someone not that good at counting I wouldn't think the vaccine is very effective.It is  hard to keep blaming the unvaccinated (which I have given up doing) when figures are so high including cases ,hospitalisations and sadly deaths.
> 
> Them figures  are not even close to Irelands and I presume you are not implying so.I wouldn't believe award of it.


If you aren't very good at counting, and apparently comprehension, perhaps you shouldn't be second guessing the advice of the experts from every major health authority in the world which is that the vaccines are very effective at reducing your risk of ending up in hospital or dying from covid.









						COVID-19 Vaccines Advice
					






					www.who.int
				




So the best thing you can do to avoid putting strain on the health service, which could lead to the closure of pubs and hospitality is... get vaccinated.
That and don't go to the pub if you have any covid symptoms. Have a hot whiskey at home instead *

* This may not be WHO approved


----------



## Purple

justintime said:


> Them figures  are not even close to Irelands and I presume you are not implying so.I wouldn't believe award of it.


From Stephen Donnelly in the Irish Times; "The unvaccinated make up one-third of Covid-19 cases in hospital and two-thirds in ICU, but only 7 per cent of the adult population, he pointed out."
Unvaccinated placing ‘disproportionate burden’ on health service, says Donnelly


----------



## Firefly

justintime said:


> From someone not that good at counting I wouldn't think the vaccine is very effective.It is  hard to keep blaming the unvaccinated (which I have given up doing) when figures are so high including cases ,hospitalisations and sadly deaths.


Vaccines do not prevent someone from contracting covid - we're probably all going to get it. What the vaccines do do, however, is substantially reduce someone from kicking the bucket after contracting covid. Sure, there are vaccinated people in ICU, but I think it's a safe bet to assume that they have underlying conditions or other complications.


----------



## justintime

sorry those and a


justintime said:


> From someone not that good at counting I wouldn't think the vaccine is very effective.It is  hard to keep blaming the unvaccinated (which I have given up doing) when figures are so high including cases ,hospitalisations and sadly deaths.
> 
> Them figures  are not even close to Irelands and I presume you are not implying so.I wouldn't believe award of





Paul O Mahoney said:


> Well all the data is available,  Germany has 67% vaccinated and now are fighting a massive breakout of the virus and the vast majority of these cases and subsequent hospitalizations are unvaccinated. Same in Russia, Ukraine,  US, Japan,  Brazil to name a few countries that have high hesitancy.
> 
> As stated numerous times here and generally the vaccines can only do so much, we citizens must do our bit to , ie mask wearing, washing hands and social distancing .


It's our cases which are now as high with 90 per cent vaccinated as they were with 10 per cent .


Purple said:


> From Stephen Donnelly in the Irish Times; "The unvaccinated make up one-third of Covid-19 cases in hospital and two-thirds in ICU, but only 7 per cent of the adult population, he pointed out."
> Unvaccinated placing ‘disproportionate burden’ on health service, says Donnelly


Even though high that's far  from 98 Per cent and where can we find how many of the 78 who died in the last week were unvaccinated.


----------



## Firefly

justintime said:


> It's our cases which are now as high with 90 per cent vaccinated as they were with 10 per cent .
> 
> Even though high that's far  from 98 Per cent and where can we find how many of the 78 who died in the last week were unvaccinated.



I think you are missing the point. Vaccines do not prevent the spread of covid per se. They reduce the risk of getting serious complications or dying from it. Vaccinated people with underlying conditions who contact covid may end up in ICU. However, the point is that the unvaccinated make up only 7% of the adult population yet make up 33% of those in ICU. They are clearly over represented, and unless they all too have underlying conditions, they are probably in ICU when they shouldn't be and God knows what longterm issues they will retain as a result of this disease.


----------



## Purple

justintime said:


> Even though high that's far from 98 Per cent and where can we find how many of the 78 who died in the last week were unvaccinated


Yes, there's more fat people in America (though we are catching up) and most of our fatties are vaccinated.


----------



## justintime

Firefly said:


> I think you are missing the point. Vaccines do not prevent the spread of covid per se. They reduce the risk of getting serious complications or dying from it. Vaccinated people with underlying conditions who contact covid may end up in ICU. However, the point is that the unvaccinated make up only 7% of the adult population yet make up 33% of those in ICU. They are clearly over represented, and unless they all too have underlying conditions, they are probably in ICU when they shouldn't be and God knows what longterm issues they will retain as a result of this disease.


I'm getting the point that 7 per cent are also the youngest most active  and with the most contacts so wether it be school or college there transmission rates would also be higher and I don't believe they are dying from it .God knows what we are putting into our bodies when probably it's not even working


----------



## joe sod

Firefly said:


> Or, there are 10 types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who don't


I studied at university but don't claim to be an expert or anything. Presumably in a digital system what's a 1 and what's a 0 can't be arbitrary . Everyone must have a loaded shotgun and everyone must not have a loaded shotgun to be represented in a binary system, if you never had a loaded shotgun well then the binary system doesn't work.
In the world of westerns maybe it does work because everyone has had a loaded gun at some stage so everyone could be given a binary number I think


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

justintime said:


> God knows what we are putting into our bodies when probably it's not even working


Again all the data, all the methodology especially for mRNA vaccines is available online. 
Saying "its not even working " is the typical default position who won't/don't/ want or can't understand the information. 

It's a lot easier for you to try and undermine proven scientific facts with inane statements.


----------



## Leo

Firefly said:


> Vaccines do not prevent someone from contracting covid - we're probably all going to get it. What the vaccines do do, however, is substantially reduce someone from kicking the bucket after contracting covid. Sure, there are vaccinated people in ICU, but I think it's a safe bet to assume that they have underlying conditions or other complications.


The vaccinated are far less likely to become ill, and are also less likely to spread the infection should they catch it.


----------



## joer

Leo said:


> The vaccinated are far less likely to become ill, and are also less likely to spread the infection should they catch it.


It would be great if people would get this simple message into their heads ...and try to understand it.


----------



## Purple

joe sod said:


> I studied at university but don't claim to be an expert or anything. Presumably in a digital system what's a 1 and what's a 0 can't be arbitrary . Everyone must have a loaded shotgun and everyone must not have a loaded shotgun to be represented in a binary system, if you never had a loaded shotgun well then the binary system doesn't work.
> In the world of westerns maybe it does work because everyone has had a loaded gun at some stage so everyone could be given a binary number I think


Is this what you studied?


----------



## Leo

joe sod said:


> Presumably in a digital system what's a 1 and what's a 0 can't be arbitrary . Everyone must have a loaded shotgun and everyone must not have a loaded shotgun to be represented in a binary system


At the risk of ruining this and taking it in a serious direction. binary systems have two states, 0 and 1 (base 2). So you can divide the population into 0s, those without shotguns, and 1s, those with shotguns.


----------



## demoivre

joer said:


> It would be great if people would get this simple message into their heads ...and try to understand it.



Maybe you can explain to the simpletons, who aren't gifted with your intellect , why a vaccinated person infected with SARs COV2 , can legitimately  enter a pub but a non infected unvaccinated person can't ?


----------



## Firefly

demoivre said:


> Maybe you can explain to the simpletons, who aren't gifted with your intellect , why a vaccinated person infected with SARs COV2 , can legitimately  enter a pub but a non infected unvaccinated person can't ?


We don't know upon entering a pub whether someone is infected or not. The question I would ask is why on earth would an unvaccinated person want to even go near a pub?


----------



## odyssey06

demoivre said:


> Maybe you can explain to the simpletons, who aren't gifted with your intellect , why a vaccinated person infected with SARs COV2 , can legitimately  enter a pub but a non infected unvaccinated person can't ?


Why can an 18 year old drink legally in a pub and a 16 year old cannot?

Because an unvaccinated person in a pub is more likely to get sick, pass on sickness to someone else (including staff), end up in hospital and put someone else into hospital than a vaccinated person.

Someones vaccination status is known establishing their infection status just as they enter a pub... is more challenging.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Firefly said:


> We don't know upon entering a pub whether someone is infected or not. The question I would ask is why on earth would an unvaccinated person want to even go near a pub?


There are a few unvaccinated in my local and they drink outside in the beer garden. If they need to visit the loo, they mask up and travel the 8/9 feet .
Its not impossible for them and they don't seem put out by it either.


----------



## joe sod

Leo said:


> At the risk of ruining this and taking it in a serious direction. binary systems have two states, 0 and 1 (base 2). So you can divide the population into 0s, those without shotguns, and 1s, those with shotguns.


Yes but from memory the reason why binary systems work in electronics is because every diode is capable of being a 0 or a 1 and they can change many times from 0s to 1s. It doesn't translate across to people with  shotguns or most human interactions because most people are set at 0 or 1 and never change. 
Donald trump would need to become a Greta Thornburg and vica versa many times over for binary to translate across to the  human scale.
 I know it's just fooling around but still it's food for thought


----------



## demoivre

Firefly said:


> We don't know upon entering a pub whether someone is infected or not. The question I would ask is why on earth would an unvaccinated person want to even go near a pub?


Because  sars cov 2 is harmless to most people and they don't feel in the slightest bit threatened by it ? 
Most in the pub will be vaccinated.
The ones spreading the virus in the pub could be the vaccinated !


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

demoivre said:


> Because  sars cov 2 is harmless to most people and they don't feel in the slightest bit threatened by it ?
> Most in the pub will be vaccinated.
> The ones spreading the virus in the pub could be the vaccinated !


And what scientific evidence have you got to support this?
If lockdowns and vaccines weren't both used to quell the spread of this virus,  especially the Delta variant would the figures be different?

And how do you know "most don't feel threatened " have you data to support this ,or did you get that nugget from " two lads down the pub"?

You appear to high on rhetoric but short on facts, but I doubt you'd understand the facts, let alone accept them.


----------



## demoivre

odyssey06 said:


> Why can an 18 year old drink legally in a pub and a 16 year old cannot?
> 
> Because an unvaccinated person in a pub is more likely to get sick, pass on sickness to someone else (including staff), end up in hospital and put someone else into hospital than a vaccinated person.
> 
> Someones vaccination status is known establishing their infection status just as they enter a pub... is more challenging.



I specifically referred to an *non infected* unvaccinated person. How can a non infected person infect others? 

The fact is that an infected person with a vaccine pass can legitimately go in to a pub or night club whereas  a non infected unvaccinated person cant. We are one of the most vaccinated countries in Europe and have one of the highest infection rates.

Establishing who is infectious could have been implemented months ago by embracing antigen testing, which hilariously given the snake oil reference to the Lidl antigen tests by Philip nolan, are now being mandated by government. The Ferguson report was out last March. Talk about being behind the curve again.


----------



## demoivre

Paul O Mahoney said:


> And what scientific evidence have you got to support this?
> If lockdowns and vaccines weren't both used to quell the spread of this virus,  especially the Delta variant would the figures be different?
> 
> And how do you know "most don't feel threatened " have you data to support this ,or did you get that nugget from " two lads down the pub"?
> 
> You appear to high on rhetoric but short on facts, but I doubt you'd understand the facts, let alone accept them.



You really need to stop the nonsense.


----------



## demoivre

Paul O Mahoney said:


> There are a few unvaccinated in my local and they drink outside in the beer garden. If they need to visit the loo, they mask up and travel the 8/9 feet .
> Its not impossible for them and they don't seem put out by it either.



The vaccinated person at the table beside you could be infected with sars cov2 and infectious.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

demoivre said:


> You really need to stop the nonsense.


Perhaps you should take your own advice,  you continue with drivel, and try to justify your view which we know is simply nonsense.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

demoivre said:


> The vaccinated person at the table beside you could be infected with sars cov2 and infectious.


But if they are and you are vaccinated the chances of getting infected is greatly reduced. 
Again plenty of properly conducted studies to backup this.


----------



## odyssey06

demoivre said:


> I specifically referred to an *non infected* unvaccinated person. How can a non infected person infect others?
> 
> The fact is that an infected person with a vaccine pass can legitimately go in to a pub or night club whereas  a non infected unvaccinated person cant. We are one of the most vaccinated countries in Europe and have one of the highest infection rates.
> 
> Establishing who is infectious could have been implemented months ago by embracing antigen testing, which hilariously given the snake oil reference to the Lidl antigen tests by Philip nolan, are now being mandated by government. The Ferguson report was out last March. Talk about being behind the curve again.


And lots of those cases are among the unvaccinated, far higher than their % in the population

To know they are non infected...
You'd need to establish authorised providers of antigen testing which can be available for daily testing... as self administered tests are not reliable.
Antigen tests are prone to high false positives.

So I'm not saying don't use antigen testing, but it's not a straightforward as you make it sound.

Far more important priority to get people vaccinated


----------



## Sophrosyne

demoivre said:


> We are one of the most vaccinated countries in Europe *and have one of the highest infection rates.*


???


----------



## demoivre

Paul O Mahoney said:


> But if they are and you are vaccinated the chances of getting infected is greatly reduced.
> Again plenty of properly conducted studies to backup this.



The risk is there albeit reduced. A vaccinated, infected person can spread the virus and there is increasing evidence that that's the case.

I don't have any studies to back up my  ground breaking contention that an unvaccinated person who is not infected with sars cov2 can't spread what they don't have to other people. 

Yet they're the ones who are barred from entering the pubs and clubs.


----------



## demoivre

odyssey06 said:


> And lots of those cases are among the unvaccinated, far higher than their % in the population
> 
> To know they are non infected...
> You'd need to establish authorised providers of antigen testing which can be available for daily testing... as self administered tests are not reliable.
> Antigen tests are prone to high false positives.
> 
> So I'm not saying don't use antigen testing, but it's not a straightforward as you make it sound.
> 
> Far more important priority to get people vaccinated



You are well wide of the mark on Antigen testing and we are one of the last countries , if not the last, in the EU EEA to embrace them . 
They are extremely accurate when an individual is infectious and twice weekly testing has been shown to  counter false positives. Michael Mina has written extensively on this topic.
I'm pro vaccine in general.


----------



## demoivre

Sophrosyne said:


> ???











						Maps in support of the Council Recommendation on a coordinated approach to travel measures in the EU
					

Maps showing new COVID-19 cases at subnational level, with a combined indicator based on the 14-day notification and vaccination rates.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu


----------



## odyssey06

demoivre said:


> You are well wide of the mark on Antigen testing and we are one of the last countries , if not the last, in the EU EEA to embrace them .
> They are extremely accurate when an individual is infectious and twice weekly testing has been shown to  counter false positives. Michael Mina has written extensively on this topic.
> I'm pro vaccine in general.


And how are those countries doing? They are experiencing a pandemic of the unvaccinated because they facillitated the unvaccinated, whereas we used a carrot \ stick approach of get the vaccine if you want to socialise ... given the differential hospitalisation rates for vaccinated v unvaccinated I think our strategy made more sense at the time.

Antigen tests can miss someone in early stages of infection, you can be negative on a Tuesday but positive on a Wednesday. Antigen test validity for a 'pass' is therefore 24-48 hours only.

They are prone to false positives especially when conducted by a non professional.

So are they extremely accurate when self administered by someone who wants to go the pub that night?
Who is going to conduct the test?
How many tests is that a day and who pays for it?

I'm not against antigen testing- professionally administered and paid for by the person themselves - giving a limited time 'pass' for hospitality and events for the unvaccinated.


How are any of those questions wide of the mark?


----------



## Leo

demoivre said:


> You are well wide of the mark on Antigen testing and we are one of the last countries , if not the last, in the EU EEA to embrace them .


Antigen testing will produce a false negative in a lot of cases. This review of 64 studies shows:



> In people with confirmed COVID-19, antigen tests correctly identified COVID-19 infection in an average of 72% of people with symptoms, compared to 58% of people without symptoms.



There is also a marked difference between a trained person carrying out the test and your average person. Most people don't go deep enough with the swab.

Denmark have had one of the broadest adoptions of antigen testing that I've heard of, testing about 8% of the population daily and their levels aren't that much different to ours.


----------



## Leo

demoivre said:


> The vaccinated person at the table beside you could be infected with sars cov2 and infectious.


You need to stop focusing on the impact of one unvaccinated or vaccinated person with Covid. The health measures are a means of reducing overall transmission and attempt to keep it at a level where our economy can operate as close to normal as possible without the health service being overwhelmed. 

We now have 549 cases in hospital with 97 in ICU. There is absolutely no doubt that removing the requirement for vaccination to enter a bar or restaurant will have anything other than a negative effect on those numbers.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

demoivre said:


> Yet they're the ones who are barred from entering the pubs and clubs.


And yet they don't need to be barred, but they feel so special and think they are the defenders of democracy and civil rights, but in reality they are selfish self centred nobodies who can't see beyond themselves.


----------



## demoivre

odyssey06 said:


> And how are those countries doing? They are experiencing a pandemic of the unvaccinated because they facillitated the unvaccinated, whereas we used a carrot \ stick approach of get the vaccine if you want to socialise ... given the differential hospitalisation rates for vaccinated v unvaccinated I think our strategy made more sense at the time.
> 
> Antigen tests can miss someone in early stages of infection, you can be negative on a Tuesday but positive on a Wednesday. Antigen test validity for a 'pass' is therefore 24-48 hours only.
> 
> They are prone to false positives especially when conducted by a non professional.
> 
> So are they extremely accurate when self administered by someone who wants to go the pub that night?
> Who is going to conduct the test?
> How many tests is that a day and who pays for it?
> 
> I'm not against antigen testing- professionally administered and paid for by the person themselves - giving a limited time 'pass' for hospitality and events for the unvaccinated.
> 
> 
> How are any of those questions wide of the mark?


You are well wide of the mark because you've ignored the critical point of the advantages of twice weekly testing which I already pointed out to you.

 NPHET have just recommended them to government btw 









						NPHET recommends twice weekly antigen testing
					

The National Public Health Emergency Team has recommended that people who frequently go to nightclubs, bars and restaurants should take twice weekly antigen tests.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## demoivre

Leo said:


> You need to stop focusing on the impact of one unvaccinated or vaccinated person with Covid. The health measures are a means of reducing overall transmission and attempt to keep it at a level where our economy can operate as close to normal as possible without the health service being overwhelmed.
> 
> We now have 549 cases in hospital with 97 in ICU. There is absolutely no doubt that removing the requirement for vaccination to enter a bar or restaurant will have anything other than a negative effect on those numbers.



There won't be a negative effect if you stop infectious people going to the bars and clubs.


----------



## demoivre

Paul O Mahoney said:


> And yet they don't need to be barred, but they feel so special and think they are the defenders of democracy and civil rights, but in reality they are selfish self centred nobodies who can't see beyond themselves.


So a bit like obese people and Type 2 diabetics are are unnecessarily taking up hospital beds ?


----------



## odyssey06

demoivre said:


> You are well wide of the mark because you've ignored the critical point of the advantages of twice weekly testing which I already pointed out to you.
> 
> NPHET have just recommended them to government btw
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> NPHET recommends twice weekly antigen testing
> 
> 
> The National Public Health Emergency Team has recommended that people who frequently go to nightclubs, bars and restaurants should take twice weekly antigen tests.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rte.ie



That is a recommendation from NPHET and does not mention their use as part of a covid 'pass'.

Self testing is unreliable and should not be used as the basis for a covid 'pass'.
It can be used as an indicator someone needs a PCR test, which I assume is where NPHET are coming from.

Self administered antigen tests are not going to be part of a covid pass here.

So how are these antigen tests to be conducted that frequently and by whom and the bill paid for, to be reliable enough to meet covid pass standards?

Which is the question I keep asking you and you keep ignoring?


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

demoivre said:


> So a bit like obese people and Type 2 diabetics are are unnecessarily taking up hospital beds ?


Well people with type 2 diabetes should not be clubbing or suckin pints. And I understand diabetes is an integral part of my life.
Everyone has choices to make in life and if you are saying that the pub is the best place for people with the ailments you mention....that says more about you .


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

demoivre said:


> So a bit like obese people and Type 2 diabetics are are unnecessarily taking up hospital beds .


Why are saying this?
People with those illnesses are being denied access to hospital beds by people who haven't taken up the option of getting vaccinated.

Its really difficult to understand you,  I feel there is an underlying reason why you type what you do, because its passionate.

So, let's re start the clock, why are you so, against the simple idea of vaccines and the benefits they bring?

And why do you insist on using one by one examples to try and further your point?

This is a global pandemic,  and the idea around vaccines being the "devils work " is nonsense and the pub isn't the best place to solve things either.

So, the alternatives are for you are fo explain why you take the stance you've adopted,  without proof , or simply say that my experience is xxxxx, I know the posters here will  be wanting to hear and most will give their view, to help, or .......


----------



## Leo

demoivre said:


> There won't be a negative effect if you stop infectious people going to the bars and clubs.


And that is simply impossible so we are forced to accept less effective measures that actually can be implemented.


----------



## waterman

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Why are saying this?
> People with those illnesses are being denied access to hospital beds by people who haven't taken up the option of getting vaccinated.
> 
> Its really difficult to understand you,  I feel there is an underlying reason why you type what you do, because its passionate.
> 
> So, let's re start the clock, why are you so, against the simple idea of vaccines and the benefits they bring?
> 
> And why do you insist on using one by one examples to try and further your point?
> 
> This is a global pandemic,  and the idea around vaccines being the "devils work " is nonsense and the pub isn't the best place to solve things either.
> 
> So, the alternatives are for you are fo explain why you take the stance you've adopted,  without proof , or simply say that my experience is xxxxx, I know the posters here will  be wanting to hear and most will give their view, to help, or .......



I am not vaccinated for this and every year I do not get the flu jag either. I have no issues if someone chooses to take it. I have taken my parents to get theirs and the booster, I feel it is right for them. So I am not against vaccines however it should be a persons own choice.

Why I have decided not to take this vaccine:
1) I've never taken the flu one and it has not been an issue.
2) This might be my main reason - I feel too pressurized to get it be it. Be it from the Government, press, work etc. That just does not sit well with me it's like people believe it is a magic bullet and if you get the vaccine you can neither catch the virus or pass it on, both of which are incorrect.
3) I lead a health life. I do not smoke, drink very little, ,majority of meals are all home made, exercise regularly.
4) I do not go to pubs and work from home I feel I am low risk.

The only reason why I am thinking of getting it would be to reduce the stress on the health service. Nothing more. 

I work with a people who got vaccinated early on and are now finding out their vaccine efficacy is running out and they are questioning why they bothered.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

waterman said:


> I am not vaccinated for this and every year I do not get the flu jag either. I have no issues if someone chooses to take it. I have taken my parents to get theirs and the booster, I feel it is right for them. So I am not against vaccines however it should be a persons own choice.
> 
> Why I have decided not to take this vaccine:
> 1) I've never taken the flu one and it has not been an issue.
> 2) This might be my main reason - I feel too pressurized to get it be it. Be it from the Government, press, work etc. That just does not sit well with me it's like people believe it is a magic bullet and if you get the vaccine you can neither catch the virus or pass it on, both of which are incorrect.
> 3) I lead a health life. I do not smoke, drink very little, ,majority of meals are all home made, exercise regularly.
> 4) I do not go to pubs and work from home I feel I am low risk.
> 
> The only reason why I am thinking of getting it would be to reduce the stress on the health service. Nothing more.
> 
> I work with a people who got vaccinated early on and are now finding out their vaccine efficacy is running out and they are questioning why they bothered.


And I bet you wear a mask and perform good health practices. 

People are free to make up their own minds on getting vaccinated but they also need to understand the consequences of not been vaccinated and that includes barring them from entry to pubs and restaurants.

I know quite a few unvaccinated people many like you, they accept the consequences of being unvaccinated and it doesn't seem to adversely affect their quality of life. They still have a beer but sit in a beer garden. 

The argument that vaccinated and unvaccinated people can sit feet apart in  pubs/restaurants with bad circulation and not run the risk of either causing infections is incorrect. 

The vaccines are a great asset in the fight against covid and it was all clearly explained that they would wane over a period of six months and booster jabs would be needed, maybe its 5 months .

Personally I think we will be asked to take a annual jab if one is developed that will hold its efficacy for 6/9 months but who knows what lies ahead. If we didn't have the vaccines figures would be very much worse, and that's not an attempt to sway you from your choice.


----------



## waterman

Whilst I can happily accept the consequence of not going to the pub or restaurant, I have to admit at being concerned to where this could lead. Today because I do not have X I'm not allowed to the pub but tomorrow another destination is added to the list, then another and very very soon we have a 2 tier society. And why....... people with the vaccine get sick and die too (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/revealed-...-have-died-in-the-last-4-weeks-190548036.html) surely preventing "sick" people be you vaccinated or not from mixing with other people is a better method of keeping hospital numbers down - is that such a crazy idea?


----------



## Leo

waterman said:


> I do not have X I'm not allowed to the pub but tomorrow


If you don't have a driving license, you're not allowed to drive, if you don't have a passport, you're not allowed to travel abroad, if you don't have a SafePass, you can't work on a building site, etc.. 



waterman said:


> And why....... people with the vaccine get sick and die too (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/revealed-...-have-died-in-the-last-4-weeks-190548036.html)


Did you miss the 'Death rates among the unvaccinated are significantly higher.' line?



waterman said:


> surely preventing "sick" people be you vaccinated or not from mixing with other people is a better method of keeping hospital numbers down - is that such a crazy idea?


Do you have a fool proof, practical, and affordable method of testing people to that level? Keeping in mind that Denmark's testing of 8% of the entire population on a daily basis wasn't able to achieve it.


----------



## waterman

Hello,

To get all the things you list requires a training course & fill in a form. Nothing more. But a person who is otherwise healthy & lives a law abiding life will be treated any differently than another citizen does not sit well with me.

I did not miss that un-vaccinated people get sick and die too. I've never said that was the case. What I was showing is that vaccinated people also get sick and die, by quite significant amounts to boot. I have also said I support anyone who wants to get it

I do not have a fool proof etc method of testing people. I do not believe there is a magic wand (be it vaccinations or testing etc) that can be waved to sort this out. Covid is here for life. It is going no where and is very real. What I do believe is people need to take this opportunity and make changes to their life styles - less drink, less smoking, more exercise, eat healthier food and stop relying on medicine for all aliments (but that discussion can be for another thread). And finally if a person has any symptoms they should stay at home - vaccinated or not.


----------



## Leo

waterman said:


> o get all the things you list requires a training course & fill in a form. Nothing more. But a person who is otherwise healthy & lives a law abiding life will be treated any differently than another citizen does not sit well with me.


You still need to prove you're not a danger to yourself or others to get a driving license. To get a covid cert all you need is a couple of little jab that will significantly reduce risk to yourself, and also reduce the risk you pose to others around you. 

No one is forcing anyone to get a cert, but while our health service is on the brink of collapse and we're building a massive debt of delayed treatments and diagnoses, we need to implement measures to lessen the burden for the common good. If we're not comfortable with the use of certs to allow access to indoor environments, then the alternative is those environments and businesses will be forced to shut down.

Once numbers are back under control, the cert requirements should fall away as is proposed. 



waterman said:


> I did not miss that un-vaccinated people get sick and die too. I've never said that was the case. What I was showing is that vaccinated people also get sick and die, by quite significant amounts to boot. I have also said I support anyone who wants to get it


No one ever claimed that vaccines were 100% effective, but what the data shows us is the the vast majority of those being hospitalized, requiring intensive care, or dying are unvaccinated. Speed limits do not eliminate 100% of road deaths, but that's on argument to scrap them.


----------



## odyssey06

Headline: Pubs set to close at midnight from Thursday...​Don't panic... they will reopen the next day.









						Midnight closing time for pubs from Thursday as Cabinet agrees on measures to curb Covid-19
					

The government’s previous advice for people to work from home if possible is to come into force again from Friday morning.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## waterman

I only want to highlight my concerns on the path of restricting people could lead to and that the vaccine is not enough for people to let their guard down as they can catch it and spread. Everyone needs to look longer term at how they can better their bodies to handle future outbreaks.....

Correct me if I'm wrong however if a number of vaccinated people are eating at a table and one is infected, albeit with minor symptoms as is most likely with the vaccine, they can pass it onto the other people they are with who could all potentially still end up in hospital. Yes it is less likely but can still happen.

I would honestly prefer to see a much stronger message communicated along the lines of  - If you have any symptoms stay at home and get tested. As right now people have a belief of "If I am vaccinated I can go and do anything" which unfortunately people seem to have.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

waterman said:


> I only want to highlight my concerns on the path of restricting people could lead to and that the vaccine is not enough for people to let their guard down as they can catch it and spread. Everyone needs to look longer term at how they can better their bodies to handle future outbreaks.....
> 
> Correct me if I'm wrong however if a number of vaccinated people are eating at a table and one is infected, albeit with minor symptoms as is most likely with the vaccine, they can pass it onto the other people they are with who could all potentially still end up in hospital. Yes it is less likely but can still happen.
> 
> I would honestly prefer to see a much stronger message communicated along the lines of  - If you have any symptoms stay at home and get tested. As right now people have a belief of "If I am vaccinated I can go and do anything" which unfortunately people seem to have.


People have a choice nobody is trying to take their choices away, and there are consequences for not choosing to vaccinate. 

My health has had its ups and downs,  I drive anymore because my treatments took away a few faculties, even though my license was valid upto 2 years ago and I could renew but haven't. 

People need to look beyond their own desires, and do what is necessary for your family,  communities and country. 

Vaccination were never going to be the panacea for this pandemic, keeping people from getting sick or dying was the ultimate goal, and everyone with a modicum of understanding knows that vaccinated people would died, but if the viral load was reduced in our communities by good health practices we wouldn't be where we are.

Choices have consequences


----------



## Leo

waterman said:


> I only want to highlight my concerns on the path of restricting people could lead to and that the vaccine is not enough for people to let their guard down as they can catch it and spread. Everyone needs to look longer term at how they can better their bodies to handle future outbreaks.....


What path do you think these temporary measures are going down? Beware the conspiracy theorists that will tell you this is all part of a sinister government plan to take away all our liberties. 

I see the temporary restrictions as allowing those who choose to get vaccinated (to protect themselves and those around them) to get back to a more normal life more quickly, and I see that as a much better option than the alternative of closing down more of society because of the risk posed by a small minority who choose not to be vaccinated.



waterman said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong however if a number of vaccinated people are eating at a table and one is infected, albeit with minor symptoms as is most likely with the vaccine, they can pass it onto the other people they are with who could all potentially still end up in hospital. Yes it is less likely but can still happen.


It is possible for a vaccinated person who becomes infected to pass it on to others, but an infected vaccinated person is far less likely to pass it on than an unvaccinated infected person. 



waterman said:


> I would honestly prefer to see a much stronger message communicated along the lines of - If you have any symptoms stay at home and get tested. As right now people have a belief of "If I am vaccinated I can go and do anything" which unfortunately people seem to have.


Where have you been for the last ~20 months? What more could they do to get that message out there? 

Everyone knows vaccines aren't 100% effective, after all the media coverage on the effectiveness of the various vaccines, there is zero excuse for not understanding that. The leaflet provided with the vaccine also calls that out very clearly. Media coverage for many months has spoken of how protection fades over time. I don't believe there are many people at all who think they can do anything just because they are vaccinated.

If the current problem was only one of vaccinated people engaging in risky activity, you wouldn't have all those unvaccinated people in hospital. A component of the problem is people who think the health advice doesn't apply to them, and the number of that cohort who are unvaccinated.


----------



## Bluefin

Leo said:


> What path do you think these temporary measures are going down? Beware the conspiracy theorists that will tell you this is all part of a sinister government plan to take away all our liberties.
> 
> I see the temporary restrictions as allowing those who choose to get vaccinated (to protect themselves and those around them) to get back to a more normal life more quickly, and I see that as a much better option than the alternative of closing down more of society because of the risk posed by a small minority who choose not to be vaccinated.
> 
> 
> It is possible for a vaccinated person who becomes infected to pass it on to others, but an infected vaccinated person is far less likely to pass it on than an unvaccinated infected person.
> 
> 
> Where have you been for the last ~20 months? What more could they do to get that message out there?
> 
> Everyone knows vaccines aren't 100% effective, after all the media coverage on the effectiveness of the various vaccines, there is zero excuse for not understanding that. The leaflet provided with the vaccine also calls that out very clearly. Media coverage for many months has spoken of how protection fades over time. I don't believe there are many people at all who think they can do anything just because they are vaccinated.
> 
> If the current problem was only one of vaccinated people engaging in risky activity, you wouldn't have all those unvaccinated people in hospital. A component of the problem is people who think the health advice doesn't apply to them, and the number of that cohort who are unvaccinated.


What more could they do to get that message out there?

I think a very strong message could have been sent out by tge government and the sporting bodies last weekend by insisting on Covid19 certs were required to attend the matches, masks to be worn at all times and no bar/food facilities opened in the stadium. It would have really emphasised that this virus is very much a real threat to everyone... Think about the positive message it would have sent to all the people at home watching the games...great marketing trick missed.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Bluefin said:


> What more could they do to get that message out there?
> 
> I think a very strong message could have been sent out by tge government and the sporting bodies last weekend by insisting on Covid19 certs were required to attend the matches, masks to be worn at all times and no bar/food facilities opened in the stadium. It would have really emphasised that this virus is very much a real threat to everyone... Think about the positive message it would have sent to all the people at home watching the games...great marketing trick missed.


But would we have beaten the All Blacks if the crowd was sober.........I was there and never mind the Stadium it was like any other Rugby game since I started going 30 years ago.......and afterwards let's leave it to the imagination.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> Headline: Pubs set to close at midnight from Thursday...​Don't panic... they will reopen the next day.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Midnight closing time for pubs from Thursday as Cabinet agrees on measures to curb Covid-19
> 
> 
> The government’s previous advice for people to work from home if possible is to come into force again from Friday morning.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thejournal.ie


I'm in Cork visting.....and just having a pint in an " auld haunt" in Douglas and the lads were saying that doesn't affect them as they close at midnight, weekends anyway. 

This place pre Covid would be hopping until 2am and sometimes beyond. 

It was bound to happen and personally it's a good thing


----------



## Leo

Bluefin said:


> I think a very strong message could have been sent out by tge government and the sporting bodies last weekend by insisting on Covid19 certs were required to attend the matches, masks to be worn at all times and no bar/food facilities opened in the stadium.


So they should issue advice that conflicts with current legislation?


----------



## waterman

Paul O Mahoney said:


> People have a choice nobody is trying to take their choices away, and there are consequences for not choosing to vaccinate





Paul O Mahoney said:


> Choices have consequences





Leo said:


> What path do you think these temporary measures are going down?



They have just today added cinemas to the list of places - again not a big concern for me. Tomorrow??? Other countries are much worse than here - mandate to be allowed work being the most concerning ref Italy and USA.

Do you agree with this? That in order to do their jobs healthy, fit and good citizens cannot do their work unless they have taken their medicine. To be very honest that scares me. Will it come to that in Ireland I really really hope not but it is not impossible to imagine either!

What are your thoughts there? Where for you is it acceptable to draw the line where I cannot attend?


----------



## Sophrosyne

What's the big deal about getting vaccinated?


----------



## Leo

waterman said:


> Do you agree with this? That in order to do their jobs healthy, fit and good citizens cannot do their work unless they have taken their medicine.


But they are not being good citizens if they simply refuse to be vaccinated for anything other than legitimate medical reasons. If they're among the minority choosing not to be vaccinated because they don't like being advised what's best for them and wider society, then they clearly don't care about their colleagues or anyone else unable to work or otherwise impacted by the restrictions.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

waterman said:


> They have just today added cinemas to the list of places - again not a big concern for me. Tomorrow??? Other countries are much worse than here - mandate to be allowed work being the most concerning ref Italy and USA.
> 
> Do you agree with this? That in order to do their jobs healthy, fit and good citizens cannot do their work unless they have taken their medicine. To be very honest that scares me. Will it come to that in Ireland I really really hope not but it is not impossible to imagine either!
> 
> What are your thoughts there? Where for you is it acceptable to draw the line where I cannot attend?


I personally believe that those "who don't believe that fire warms you need to be held closer to it" will never understand anything. 

"Ifs and buts and coconuts "isn't a good strategy by Governments or individuals.

Personally my view non compliance to the general health advice and scientific data , is that yes they,  who don't comply should be shunned,  or at least curtailed.

You should ask your parents if you got all the inoculations since you arrived in this world....that answer is most definitely yes.

On topic 2 pints of Moretti tonight,  the taste of " more" and phone number taken and cert scanned....no vaccine certs no entry....that's the message,  it was lovely inside , bit of a walk for a smoke though.


----------



## TrundleAlong

I would also like to see signs at the entrance to supermarkets, cinemas, hairdressers etc. telling the public that all our staff have been vaccinated.  If I knew that the person cutting my hair was not vaccinated then I would prefer to go elsewhere.


----------



## waterman

Whilst I am enjoying the discussion we are having (as I sit next to my nice stove with a Lomza Export beer) and it's great there is a facility to have these conversations I am surprised and sad (naïve too) to discover that people in Ireland feel that their otherwise good neighbor should be "shunned".


Leo said:


> ...they clearly don't care about their colleagues or anyone else unable to work or otherwise impacted by the restrictions.


I know not personally directed at me however I can't let this one go. I work in a job where on occasions 2 people are required to look out and support the other. I take my colleagues lives very seriously and ensure all best practice are followed.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

TrundleAlong said:


> I would also like to see signs at the entrance to supermarkets, cinemas, hairdressers etc. telling the public that all our staff have been vaccinated.  If I knew that the person cutting my hair was not vaccinated then I would prefer to go elsewhere.


Why? The issue isn't the staff the issue is the punters. 
There are things like sanitizer not being available or not full....but this goes back to the common sense, if the premises doesn't have the basics...walk on.

I tried to buy paint today,  oils and acrylic,  and the queue was 20ish ....I'll get back there tomorrow, but stated on a board outside, " 4 customers at a time,  and spend as long as as much as possible " .

It didn't matter if all staff were vaccinated they just did the right thing.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

waterman said:


> Whilst I am enjoying the discussion we are having (as I sit next to my nice stove with a Lomza Export beer) and it's great there is a facility to have these conversations I am surprised and sad (naïve too) to discover that people in Ireland feel that their otherwise good neighbor should be "shunned".
> 
> I know not personally directed at me however I can't let this one go. I work in a job where on occasions 2 people are required to look out and support the other. I take my colleagues lives very seriously and ensure all best practice are followed.


Such arrogance should be washed down with a 1988 Pomerol after riding with the hounds hunt down a...

 troll


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Sophrosyne said:


> What's the big deal about getting vaccinated?


Apparently it's not for those who are fit and can't remember what they post both hypocritically and lies.

The majority have shown its not a big deal


----------



## Bluefin

Leo so only if its written in law that no sporting organisation can decide that Covid19 certs are required to enter their stadiums? 

Didn't the organisers of electric state on tbe national airwaves that only fully vaccinated persons could attend there concerts if they were granted a licence... No change in law required..


----------



## Sophrosyne

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Apparently it's not for those who are fit and can't remember what they post both hypocritically and lies.
> 
> The majority have shown its not a big deal


I was really addressing my question to @waterman.

On the one hand, he doesn't appear mindless. He follows health guidelines, looks after his health and understands the pressures on the health service.

On the other hand, he doesn't appear to understand that in the midst of a global pandemic the Government acts in the _common _good. It would be impossible and impracticable to facilitate a myriad of individual contestations, ideological or otherwise .


----------



## Leo

Bluefin said:


> Leo so only if its written in law that no sporting organisation can decide that Covid19 certs are required to enter their stadiums?


You're just making stuff up now. You suggested the Government should have sent a message around last week's events be insisting on certs for entry, that would have been messaging against the legislation. 

I don't believe very many would think more confusion and mixed messaging is what we need right now,


----------



## Leo

waterman said:


> I know not personally directed at me however I can't let this one go. I work in a job where on occasions 2 people are required to look out and support the other. I take my colleagues lives very seriously and ensure all best practice are followed.


Lots of things people do on a daily basis have the potential to profoundly affect the lives of those around them. Every time you drive a car, you have the potential to kill if you don't take appropriate care and precautions. 

An otherwise good neighbour who falls asleep at the wheel, drives too fast, or momentarily looses concentration can end up injuring or even killing you or someone you care about. It's a low risk, but a risk none the less. Making a selfish choice not to get vaccinated carries a similarly low risk of an undesirable outcome. So while I don't feel those who choose not to get vaccinated should be pilloried, I don't think we can call them good neighbours either.


----------



## Purple

Leo said:


> Lots of things people do on a daily basis have the potential to profoundly affect the lives of those around them. Every time you drive a car, you have the potential to kill if you don't take appropriate care and precautions.
> 
> An otherwise good neighbour who falls asleep at the wheel, drives too fast, or momentarily looses concentration can end up injuring or even killing you or someone you care about. It's a low risk, but a risk none the less. Making a selfish choice not to get vaccinated carries a similarly low risk of an undesirable outcome. So while I don't feel those who choose not to get vaccinated should be pilloried, I don't think we can call them good neighbours either.


I can choose to remain slightly drunk all day but if I do then that means I cannot drive a car.
I can choose not to get vaccinated but if I do that SHOULD mean I cannot go to pubs and restaurants etc and I will have to keep wearing a mask etc long after those who choose to be vaccinated. 
We all have choices in a free society but our choices have consequences because, like, we live in the real world and we are adults.


----------



## michaelm

Though fully vaccinated, I'm opposed to vaccination apartheid.  It's not really a free society if the unwashed are to be effectively excluded for declining an emergency-use vaccine.  I don't like the creep of authoritarianism.  The use of statutory instruments by the relevant ministers is a tad too gung-ho.  Now that everyone has been offered a vaccine it time they ease up on the edicts lest the Government overreach.


----------



## Leo

michaelm said:


> Though fully vaccinated, I'm opposed to vaccination apartheid. It's not really a free society if the unwashed are to be effectively excluded for declining an emergency-use vaccine. I don't like the creep of authoritarianism.


Using emotive language like apartheid and authoritarianism does little to further an argument. Are you really suggesting that not allowing an unvaccinated person access to a small number of commercial operations temporarily is really the same thing as ~50 years of brutal racist oppression?

We are very far removed from authoritarianism here with significant levels of support for restrictions and very high take up of the vaccine. 



michaelm said:


> Now that everyone has been offered a vaccine it time they ease up on the edicts lest the Government overreach.


Are you suggesting that just offering vaccines is enough to counter Covid? If they're overreaching why are our case numbers so high right now?


----------



## odyssey06

michaelm said:


> Though fully vaccinated, I'm opposed to vaccination apartheid.  It's not really a free society if the unwashed are to be effectively excluded for declining an emergency-use vaccine.  I don't like the creep of authoritarianism.  The use of statutory instruments by the relevant ministers is a tad too gung-ho.  Now that everyone has been offered a vaccine it time they ease up on the edicts lest the Government overreach.


In some other EU countries the unvaccinated are locked down, or can be fired by their employers at will...

Is it still a free society if a country is under curfew or lockdown because of a pandemic?
So how is it no longer a free society if some of the measures only apply to those whose behaviour is most likely to prolong the pandemic?

I'm not sure if I agree with 'fire at will' or lockdown... but I think PUP payments should not be given to the unvaccinated.

I don't think our approach has been at all authoritarian.

And Pfizer, for example, is not an emergency use vaccine in the EU or US, it has received full approval.


----------



## michaelm

Leo said:


> Are you really suggesting that not allowing an unvaccinated person access to a small number of commercial operations temporarily is really the same thing as ~50 years of brutal racist oppression?


Hardly.  Clearly I said 'vaccine apartheid', segregation based on vaccine status.  No need to fear emotive language or worry about controlling mine.


Leo said:


> Are you suggesting that just offering vaccines is enough to counter Covid?


Nope.  Far from being a panacea, it seems that at least the vaccines have weakened the link between cases and hospitalisation & death (although their efficacy seems to fall off at an alarming rate).  Now that the hysteria around any talk of therapeutics has subsided hopefully they will ensure that hospitals don't fill up, and we can just get on with it. 

With 90% vaccinated it will make no meaningful difference to exclude others based on that metric.  If one is vaccinated the unvaccinated do not pose much of a risk.  We are all likely to catch Covid in any event.


odyssey06 said:


> I'm not sure if I agree with 'fire at will' or lockdown... but I think PUP payments should not be given to the unvaccinated.


I'm sure I don't agree with fire at will.  And to withhold welfare from the unvaccinated would be an aggressive form of vaccine (dare I say it?) apartheid.

No doubt there will be many who would agree with mandatory vaccination or internment of the unvaccinated.  The minister is exercising sweeping powers, no doubt well intentioned, but there is an authoritarian tilt.  Perhaps if there was a different crowd in power some would be less sanguine about the use of statutory instruments.

My opinion, albeit a minority one, is just subjective, like anyone else's.


----------



## Sunny

odyssey06 said:


> And Pfizer, for example, is not an emergency use vaccine in the EU or US, it has received full approval.



Not in Europe it hasn't. It is still operating under conditional marketing authorisation which has to renewed annually as far as I know. Unless I missed it.


----------



## Leo

michaelm said:


> Hardly. Clearly I said 'vaccine apartheid', segregation based on vaccine status. No need to fear emotive language or worry about controlling mine.


Why not say discrimination? The term apartheid, derived from Afrikaans, was devised to describe the system in South Africa. It's not a catch-all term to be applied to every minor case where discrimination of any nature is being discussed. You will find it is generally only used when someone is trying to blow a situation out of all proportion. 



michaelm said:


> With 90% vaccinated it will make no meaningful difference to exclude others based on that metric.


Then why is our hospital capacity in danger of being overwhelmed with the unvaccinated?


----------



## Purple

Sunny said:


> Not in Europe it hasn't. It is still operating under conditional marketing authorisation which has to renewed annually as far as I know. Unless I missed it.


Yep, they are all still under EMA 'Conditional marketing Authorisation'.


----------



## odyssey06

Sunny said:


> Not in Europe it hasn't. It is still operating under conditional marketing authorisation which has to renewed annually as far as I know. Unless I missed it.


mea cupla, got confused, yes it's only in US that it has full approval.

Even so, conditional marketing authorisation is not emergency use authorisation:

_A Conditional Marketing Authorisation (CMA) follows a controlled and robust framework providing safeguards that emergency use authorisations might not._









						Press corner
					

Highlights, press releases and speeches




					ec.europa.eu


----------



## Purple

michaelm said:


> Far from being a panacea, it seems that at least the vaccines have weakened the link between cases and hospitalisation & death. Now that the hysteria around any talk of therapeutics has subsided hopefully they will ensure that hospitals don't fill up, and we can just get on with it. With 90% vaccinated it will make no meaningful difference to exclude others based on that metric.


I didn't hear any scientist saying that they'd be a panacea. What we do know is that in this country unvaccinated people are more than 9 times more likely to end up in hospital if they get Covid. 
There are tremendous advances in therapeutics. Pfizer's new pill reduces hospitalisations by 90% and while it's not being made in this country it'll be made just over the border in Cork 

I agree that we should just get on with it but part of just getting on with it is getting vaccinated. Maybe they should start giving out lollypops and 'Mammy's little hero' stickers for those who are scared to have a tiny needle stuck in their arm. Maybe Peppa Pig or Dora or someone could do an advertisement campaign. 
I don't think the unvaccinated should be shunned but their should certainly be embarrassed. 
I'd love to see a collective Darwin Award go to all those who died after refusing the vaccine.


----------



## Purple

Leo said:


> Then why is our hospital capacity in danger of being overwhelmed with the unvaccinated?


Because stupid people deserve healthcare too.


----------



## michaelm

Leo said:


> Why not say discrimination?


I could have.  I wanted to use a word with only negative connotations.  'Discrimination' is on the fence; we discriminate all the time.



Leo said:


> You will find it is generally only used when someone is trying to blow a situation out of all proportion.


When will I find that attempts to control others language is used?



Leo said:


> Then why is our hospital capacity in danger of being overwhelmed with the unvaccinated?


Not doubt a multitude of reasons.  Capacity, starting from a low base anyway, hasn't been ramped up much over the last 20 months.   The health system has long been ailing . . bed-blockers, 100's on trolleys, interminable waiting lists, two-tier care.  The unvaccinated are just part of the mix, plenty of smokers and obese taking up beds.  The popular fixation with the unvaccinated is overzealous.


----------



## odyssey06

michaelm said:


> Not doubt a multitude of reasons.  Capacity, starting from a low base anyway, hasn't been ramped up much over the last 20 months.   The health system has long been ailing . . bed-blockers, 100's on trolleys, interminable waiting lists, two-tier care.  The unvaccinated are just part of the mix, plenty of smokers and obese taking up beds.  The popular fixation with the unvaccinated is overzealous.


The unvaccinated are the most tractable in all that mix, the ones that fixation \ peer pressure \ media pressure \ government nudges can have the most impact on.

Versus...
If someone stops smoking now, their lungs are damaged.
Dealing with obesity, diabetes requires serious commitment, effort, support etc
Hugely scaling up ICU given how tight for staff and space current hospitals already are

In contrast, nudging thousands more people to get vaccinated which is an inconvenience \ mild illness for 2 days of their lives...

As I've mentioned on other threads, other countries with more ICU capacity than us are being tougher than we are on the unvaccinated.


----------



## Sunny

I think a big issue is the reporting of data. There are some really good journalists in this Country but I do wonder sometimes about editorial standards. And the HSE and Politicians are not blameless either.

This is what the HSE reported about deaths up to 6th November and was picked up by media and reported as:

243/606 (40.1%) deaths were notified in persons who were not vaccinated or not registered as vaccinated on Ireland’s national COVID-19 immunisation system (COVAX). • 
363/606 (59.9%) deaths were notified in persons who had received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine prior to death. • 
292/606 (48.2%) of the notified deaths had an epidemiological date1 14 days or more after receiving both doses of a 2-dose regimen or 1 dose of a 1-dose regimenand are considered as vaccine breakthrough infections –

The amount of times I have seen on social media and even mentioned by family and friends that 48.2% of deaths were vaccinated people compared to only 40.1% of deaths in unvaccinated. This is a complete mis-representation of the data considering the difference in the size of the vaccinated population versus the unvaccinated population. 

I know you will never be able to defeat hysterical fake news but I think we have done an awful job with communications around the vaccines. Goes back right to the start with the constantly changing criteria about who can take what vaccine and has continued in how they report the impact of the vaccine on serious illness/hospitalisation versus infection rates. For months people were being told that vaccinations were the way out of this. That everything will be different if the vast majority of people get vaccinated and the vast majority did. Now the Government and public health can talk about the ever changing nature of Covid but everyone could see what happened in Israel and yet we still seem to have got caught with our pants down once again. 

Everyone should get vaccinated. Vaccines and therapeutics are the only way out of this but Ireland has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. We also have a health service that doctors have been saying is under resourced for years in areas like critical care. Unvaccinated people are one part of the problem but they are not the only part. Even with a 100% vaccination rate, we would still still be having extremely high case numbers and a hospital system under pressure.


----------



## michaelm

We should nudge away, but be slow to exclude.  Some of these other countries have a past history of authoritarianism.  This graph is interesting when talking about capacity (though I can't speak to its veracity).


----------



## Purple

michaelm said:


> We should nudge away, but be slow to exclude.  Some of these other countries have a history authoritarianism.  This graph is interesting when talking about capacity (though I can't speak to its veracity).


We should need far fewer beds. I had a hernia operation about 25 years ago and we in hospital for 3 days. I had it done again about 10 years ago and was in and out in 6 hours. 20 years ago heart surgery required cracking open the entire rib cage and required weeks in hospital. Now it's usually done through your groin and a few days in hospital.


----------



## Sunny

Purple said:


> We should need far fewer beds. I had a hernia operation about 25 years ago and we in hospital for 3 days. I had it done again about 10 years ago and was in and out in 6 hours. 20 years ago heart surgery required cracking open the entire rib cage and required weeks in hospital. Now it's usually done through your groin and a few days in hospital.



Yeah but we are talking intensive care and high dependency beds here. As far as I know before the pandemic, we had the lowest number of ICU beds per population in OECD. These beds require highly skilled staff and can't just be turned on at the drop of a hat. The number of beds stayed static since 2014 until 2020. Over 10 years ago, there were reports calling for a large increase in critical care beds but nothing was done. Probably because there is nothing 'sexy' about providing beds that might be lying idle for a large part of the year....... It just sums up the Health Service that has been drowning for years despite more and more billions being spent on it.


----------



## michaelm

According to this gov.ie Open Beds Report (PDF) they managed to increase overall bed capacity by only 144 in the year from March 2020 to March 2021. Gross  lack of ambition in the face of a pandemic.


----------



## Leo

michaelm said:


> I could have. I wanted to use a word with only negative connotations. 'Discrimination' is on the fence; we discriminate all the time.


So you deliberately chose emotive language, evoking a brutal regime for the purposes of exaggerating the situation. 



michaelm said:


> When will I find that attempts to control others language is used?


That actually doesn't make sense. 



michaelm said:


> Not doubt a multitude of reasons. Capacity, starting from a low base anyway, hasn't been ramped up much over the last 20 months. The health system has long been ailing . . bed-blockers, 100's on trolleys, interminable waiting lists, two-tier care. The unvaccinated are just part of the mix, plenty of smokers and obese taking up beds. The popular fixation with the unvaccinated is overzealous.


How do any of the issues you have raised apply more to the unvaccinated? Are you suggesting if we had more ICU capacity that it would mainly be occupied by the vaccinated? It seems more a list of common gripes with the health service with little relevance to vaccination status.

The unvaccinated are not simply 'just a part of the mix', they are a significantly over-represented majority.


----------



## Purple

Leo said:


> So you deliberately chose emotive language, evoking a brutal regime for the purposes of exaggerating the situation.
> 
> 
> That actually doesn't make sense.
> 
> 
> How do any of the issues you have raised apply more to the unvaccinated? Are you suggesting if we had more ICU capacity that it would mainly be occupied by the vaccinated? It seems more a list of common gripes with the health service with little relevance to vaccination status.
> 
> The unvaccinated are not simply 'just a part of the mix', they are a significantly over-represented majority.


Yea, and if there was an injection that stopped fat people from being fat (and I don't mean strychnine) then I'm sure most of them would take it. Ditto smokers. The fix for the unvaccinated is a tiny jab in the arm. People need to cop on.


----------



## michaelm

Leo said:


> So you deliberately chose emotive language, evoking a brutal regime for the purposes of exaggerating the situation.


Please.


Leo said:


> That actually doesn't make sense.


I seems clear to me.   Maybe, you're right.


Leo said:


> Are you suggesting if we had more ICU capacity that it would mainly be occupied by the vaccinated?


Nope.  Just that if we had more capacity we wouldn't be looking a lockdown/exclusion measures right now and Covid might burn itself out before such was necessitated.

Surely it must burn out soon.  Of the 5m of us we have approx. 1m under 12's, they aren't clogging hospitals with Covid.  We have 4m others, 3.5m of whom are fully vaccinated.  We have had over 0.5m confirmed cases and likely multiples of that unconfirmed.  Of the 0.5m over 12 and unvaccinated, there can't be that big a pool who haven't yet had Covid and are likely to end in an ICU bed when they do.


----------



## Leo

michaelm said:


> I seems clear to me. Maybe, you're right.


Perhaps that's part of the problem, the question as phrased does not make sense, the mixing of tenses and  singulars/plurals renders it impossible to know for sure what you were trying to ask.



michaelm said:


> Nope. Just that if we had more capacity we wouldn't be looking a lockdown/exclusion measures right now and Covid might burn itself out before such was necessitated.


But we have the capacity we have. Our restrictions shouldn't relate to some aspirational state where we have the health service of our dreams. You're clearly against the current restrictions on the unvaccinated, so we can only assess that in terms of the current state of the health service.


----------



## Purple

michaelm said:


> Nope. Just that if we had more capacity we wouldn't be looking a lockdown/exclusion measures right now and Covid might burn itself out before such was necessitated.


Or the last 8% could get vaccinated and we'd free up about half the beds taken up by Covid patients. That's a simpler option. And cheaper; we have thrown billions at the health service and it hasn't improved things much. 

Imagine how bad it would be if it wasn't staffed by highly trained exceptional dedicated selfless medical professional heroes!


----------



## odyssey06

michaelm said:


> Surely it must burn out soon.  Of the 5m of us we have approx. 1m under 12's, they aren't clogging hospitals with Covid.  We have 4m others, 3.5m of whom are fully vaccinated.  We have had over 0.5m confirmed cases and likely multiples of that unconfirmed.  Of the 0.5m over 12 and unvaccinated, there can't be that big a pool who haven't yet had Covid and are likely to end in an ICU bed when they do.


Yes I've had same thought... hard to tell, but curious to know how many of the unvaccinated have had covid already, although I'm not sure how much protection an Alpha variant infection spring 2020 would afford against Delta variant today.


----------



## Leo

michaelm said:


> We should nudge away, but be slow to exclude.  Some of these other countries have a past history of authoritarianism.  This graph is interesting when talking about capacity (though I can't speak to its veracity).


You likely didn't even read the overview!



> There were approximately 14.2 thousand hospital beds in Ireland in 2019. There may have been a change in methodology or definitions which may have led to the sharp decline in hospital beds after 2009.
> 
> Healthcare employees in Ireland
> Over the same period the number of health employees has been increasing in Ireland In 2018, there were almost 65.7 thousand individuals employed hospitals in Ireland, since the year 2000 this figure has increased by over 23 thousand. While in the period since 2000 the number of general practitioners in Ireland has more than doubled to 4.25 thousand in 2018.
> 
> Spending indicators on health
> Ireland’s expenditure on healthcare was 7.1 percent of GDP in 2017. In comparison to other European countries, Ireland ranks relatively low on health expenditure. Switzerland had the highest share of expenditure on health, spending 12.2 percent of its GDP in this year.


----------



## odyssey06

GDP is a very dubious measure for comparison of our spending. GNP comparisons would be more valid but also needs to consider population demographics and include spending on private health insurance etc.


----------



## Purple

Leo said:


> You likely didn't even read the overview!





> Spending indicators on health
> Ireland’s expenditure on healthcare was 7.1 percent of GDP in 2017. In comparison to other European countries, Ireland ranks relatively low on health expenditure. Switzerland had the highest share of expenditure on health, spending 12.2 percent of its GDP in this year.


It really annoys me when GDP is used as an indicator for health spending when everyone knows that our GDP is grossly inflated. Our spending relative to *GNI is very high. In real terms we are amongst the highest spenders on healthcare in both relative and absolute terms. When adjusted for demographics it's even higher. In reality we have one of the best funded healthcare systems in the world.

We are world class, but it's at wasting money.

Edit: post crossed with @odyssey06


----------



## michaelm

Leo said:


> Perhaps that's part of the problem, the question as phrased does not make sense, the mixing of tenses and singulars/plurals renders it impossible to know for sure what you were trying to ask.


Argo.


Leo said:


> You likely didn't even read the overview!


As stated, I was only referring to the graph, which I though was interesting.  They may or may not have changed how they count these things . . perhaps this is a better graph. In any event, not much was done to increase capacity over the past 20 months. Currently we have fewer than 1/3 of the numbers in hospital with covid than we did in January and 100 fewer in ICU . . and the curve looks much flatter.


----------



## demoivre

Imposing restrictions , such as earlier closing times in pubs  and clubs, on vaccinated people, will only drive the unvaccinated further away from getting vaccinated. Holohan wanting vaccinated people to avoid Christmas parties and stay at home over the festive season won't help either.
The unvaccinated already know vaccines are fairly useless in preventing infection and transmission so the only selling point is that vaccines reduce hospitalizations and death, which they do.
But sars cov2 is harmless to most people anyway  so the unvaccinated will know that they are unlikely to end up sick and/or in hospital if they get infected. 
Some will also have natural immunity from prior infection.


----------



## odyssey06

demoivre said:


> Imposing restrictions , such as earlier closing times in pubs  and clubs, on vaccinated people, will only drive the unvaccinated further away from getting vaccinated. Holohan wanting vaccinated people to avoid Christmas parties and stay at home over the festive season won't help either.
> The unvaccinated already know vaccines are fairly useless in preventing infection and transmission so the only selling point is that vaccines reduce hospitalizations and death, which they do.
> But sars cov2 is harmless to most people anyway  so the unvaccinated will know that they are unlikely to end up sick and/or in hospital if they get infected.
> Some will also have natural immunity from prior infection.


That is an interesting point re: earlier closing times removing an incentive to get vaccinated.

But the vaccines reduce infection and transmisison, not totally but signifcantly even against Delta. To describe them as 'fairly useless' in that regard is incorrect in light of the below... although this not seem well publicised by mainstream media here.









						How much less likely are you to spread covid-19 if you're vaccinated?
					

Vaccination still greatly reduces the risk of infecting others despite the arrival of the delta variant, recent studies show




					www.newscientist.com


----------



## Leo

demoivre said:


> The unvaccinated already know vaccines are fairly useless in preventing infection and transmission so the only selling point is that vaccines reduce hospitalizations and death, which they do.


The educated among us know the vaccines are very effective at preventing infection and transmission, not 100% but very effective. These are well proven facts.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

demoivre said:


> Some will also have natural immunity from prior infection.


Will they? We have seen numerous reports of people getting infected twice and I know of one person who has been infected 3 times. 
Don't we have a soccer player who has been infected twice. 

"Natural immunity " is an oxymoron as you can develop a resistance to a virus that resistance wanes too, look at the common cold, flu, pneumonia to name a few.

Vaccines,  anti virals , immunity by infection are not panacea in themselves .No virus has ever been eradicated they live on our medical technology has simply kept them in check. 

HIV/AIDS has killed 40m people, best estimate, probably more. There are viruses that we simply cannot fight as humans,  and Covid might be one.


----------



## Purple

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Will they? We have seen numerous reports of people getting infected twice and I know of one person who has been infected 3 times.
> Don't we have a soccer player who has been infected twice.
> 
> "Natural immunity " is an oxymoron as you can develop a resistance to a virus that resistance wanes too, look at the common cold, flu, pneumonia to name a few.
> 
> Vaccines,  anti virals , immunity by infection are not panacea in themselves .


Agreed



Paul O Mahoney said:


> No virus has ever been eradicated they live on our medical technology has simply kept them in check.


Smallpox has and we just don't know what ones have just died out the first SARS virus kind of just died out by itself. 


Paul O Mahoney said:


> HIV/AIDS has killed 40m people, best estimate, probably more. There are viruses that we simply cannot fight as humans,  and Covid might be one.


HIV/AIDS is a very different virus to COVID.


----------



## demoivre

Leo said:


> The educated among us know the vaccines are very effective at preventing infection and transmission, not 100% but very effective. These are well proven facts.


 
The well educated among us know that you don't have to look to far to hear contrary viewpoints such as those expressed recently by the "uneducated" Professor McConkey and Dr De Gascun, never mind the recent article published in the Lancet which found that:

"People who have two doses of vaccine have a lower, but still *appreciable risk*, of becoming infected within the Delta variant." and also that 

"Peak viral load is similar in the vaccinated and unvaccinated which may explain why they can readily pass on the virus in household and indoor settings.


----------



## Leo

demoivre said:


> The well educated among us know that you don't have to look to far to hear contrary viewpoints such as those expressed recently by the "uneducated" Professor McConkey and Dr De Gascun, never mind the recent article published in the Lancet which found that:
> 
> "People who have two doses of vaccine have a lower, but still *appreciable risk*, of becoming infected within the Delta variant." and also that
> 
> "Peak viral load is similar in the vaccinated and unvaccinated which may explain why they can readily pass on the virus in household and indoor settings.


Sorry, where's the contrarian view there? Vaccinated people have a lower risk of being infected....that's what we've been saying all along!

There's absolutely nothing new there, but perhaps you can now answer your earlier question:



demoivre said:


> Maybe you can explain to the simpletons, who aren't gifted with your intellect , why a vaccinated person infected with SARs COV2 , can legitimately enter a pub but a non infected unvaccinated person can't ?


----------



## odyssey06

demoivre said:


> The well educated among us know that you don't have to look to far to hear contrary viewpoints such as those expressed recently by the "uneducated" Professor McConkey and Dr De Gascun, never mind the recent article published in the Lancet which found that:
> 
> "People who have two doses of vaccine have a lower, but still *appreciable risk*, of becoming infected within the Delta variant." and also that
> 
> "Peak viral load is similar in the vaccinated and unvaccinated which may explain why they can readily pass on the virus in household and indoor settings.


Peak viral load is similar, but (a) vaccinated people are less likely to get infected and (b) less likely to have symptoms (so less coughing, sneezing etc) and (c) clear the virus from their system faster, so viral load after 7 days is far lower than unvaccinated.

Also, just because the viral load was the same, the test did not establish the infectiousness of the viral load.

In fact, the study that sparked the news reports didn’t measure the number of viruses in someone directly but relied on so-called Ct scores, a measure of viral RNA. However, this RNA can derive from viruses destroyed by the immune system. “You can measure the RNA but it’s rendered useless,” says Timothy Peto at the University of Oxford.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/articl...d-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/#ixzz7CfimtfQI


----------



## Dontthinkso

Leo said:


> Do you have a fool proof, practical, and affordable method of testing people to that .nl in mind that Denmark's testing of 8% of the entire population on a daily basis wasn't able to achieve it.


Denmark didn't test 8percent daily ,that was their capability. Their system did work they were open for 6 months longer than us that's fully open with rates much the same..you needed a negative test within days to enter a bar ,restaurant etc not a vaccination cert.Case in point they removed this need and numbers went up to where they are today around 7000 up  3000 daily in month ish. They have now gone back to their original system and I believe will knock numbers back quickly variant or not. Unlike Ireland they are not letting vaccinated or the unvaccinated pass it around .Also unlike Ireland their daily figure is truer and more real because they are testing simple as.Pushing antigen tests even aldi ones is way forward stopping it as quick as possible and not trying blame few unvaccinated for spread which is untrue


----------



## odyssey06

Will be interesting to see how the government responds to this...
_Recommendations, included in a letter from Chief Medical Officer Tony Holohan to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly, include a 5pm closing time for pubs and restaurants._









						NPHET recommends 5pm closing time for pubs and restaurants, Cabinet set to meet tomorrow
					

It comes amid warnings from the HSE that the health service is at extremely high risk levels.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> Will be interesting to see how the government responds to this...
> _Recommendations, included in a letter from Chief Medical Officer Tony Holohan to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly, include a 5pm closing time for pubs and restaurants._
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> NPHET recommends 5pm closing time for pubs and restaurants, Cabinet set to meet tomorrow
> 
> 
> It comes amid warnings from the HSE that the health service is at extremely high risk levels.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thejournal.ie


Reading some of the comments on that link made me think that  some peoples priorities are a little warped and there seems to be a total lack of understanding of what a pandemic is.

I'm not trying to mitigate the effects on businesses and employment or the economic effects, as we've seen those already,  but saying that they took the vaccines and they should be able to carry on with their lives regardless of what is going on is hard to understand/ accept. 

I love my pint and the time I spend having them, but I value the health of my fellow citizens more.

On a positive note,  a virologist from Queens in Belfast said earlier that initial evidence from South Africa is indicating they have reached a " peak " and roughly Omicron seems to cause 50% of hospitalizations of the Delta variant, but are still increasing.


----------



## Leper

I just imagining a publican in say Ballymacarberry or a publican based half way between Castlegregory and Blennerville waking up to the possibility that they can only sell alcohol before 5.00pm in any day. Likely, before this they weren't selling any alcohol before 5.00pm anyway. There is no point in them even opening their doors or turning on their electricity if the 5.00pm "curfew" is applied. But, of course there'll be lock-ins.


----------



## odyssey06

Leper said:


> I just imagining a publican in say Ballymacarberry or a publican based half way between Castlegregory and Blennerville waking up to the possibility that they can only sell alcohol before 5.00pm in any day. Likely, before this they weren't selling any alcohol before 5.00pm anyway. There is no point in them even opening their doors or turning on their electricity if the 5.00pm "curfew" is applied. But, of course there'll be lock-ins.


Yes, I can see that happening certainly on weekdays, though perhaps not on christmas eve and weekends.

I think there's an element to it which is anti "boozer" \ "wet pub" in that it seems to be intended to really just to support people having their lunchtime meals there? But then it doesn't favour those serving food at dinner \ after work time. I thought perhaps 7pm or 8pm to allow for that.

So I wonder if government will row back on it, or perhaps go with that later time.


----------



## michaelm

Omicron may prove to be the variant we need to move on from this, as it looks like it is less serious and it looks like we will all get it.  Thankfully, despite high numbers of cases, hospital numbers have continued to edge downwards.


----------



## michaelm

odyssey06 said:


> So I wonder if government will row back on it, or perhaps go with that later time.


I hope they push back against the 5pm thing and just leave it as is (11:30pm is it?).


----------



## joer

It is tough on the business sector and I do think that 5pm is very early but perhaps a 8or 9 o clock closing time now will benefit everyone after Christmas


----------



## odyssey06

michaelm said:


> Omicron may prove to be the variant we need to move on from this, as it looks like it is less serious and it looks like we will all get it.  Thankfully, despite high numbers of cases, hospital numbers have continued to edge downwards.


That's the omicron "hope" ... we might be lucky with this variant.


----------



## The_Banker

michaelm said:


> I hope they push back against the 5pm thing and just leave it as is (11:30pm is it?).


There appears to be some kick back growing among government back benchers. 

There is more affected than just pubs.. 

theatres who were reduced to 50% capacity but who had already sold tickets for a full house decided to put on two shows a day to get around it. That will be ruled out now if the present recommendations are accepted. 
Also, outdoor sporting events reduced to 5,000 spectators will impact the rugby provinces matches.. indeed even smaller events outdoors will have just 50% capacity. 

 Interesting to see how this plays out..


----------



## odyssey06

michaelm said:


> I hope they push back against the 5pm thing and just leave it as is (11:30pm is it?).


I think it would be a big mistake for the government to not push back on this, both for their political self-interest AND management of the pandemic.
I think last November as well, the government were bounced into a Level 5 when Level 3+ would have been sufficient, but wasn't given enough time to kick in.

One of the 'carrots' to getting the vaccine was access to hospitality. Ditto for boosters.

Now we have a situation where government are scrambling to restart booster in 5th gear & shutting down hospitality?

Boosters should have been where the battle was fought and it should have been #1 priority for weeks now, now days.

Michael Martin's comments about booster vaccine reluctance looks worse by the day.


----------



## michaelm

There'll just be more house parties.  This fussy restriction tinkering seems a bit like moving deckchairs re Omicron.


----------



## odyssey06

Reports that Cabinet have gone for *8pm* closing... until January 30th.
Note that it's more than hosptality... seems to apply to all indoor events, so no gigs, concerts, performances, cinema etc?
Outdoor events capacity cut to 50%.

_Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan has said the cabinet’s decision to close hospitality from 8pm was “a welcome acceptance of the intention of our advice”.  Nphet’s recommendation for a 5pm curfew was part of a “series of recommendations” aimed at reducing the incidence rate, Dr Holohan said.  “The key thing was to drive down, as much as possible, social contact. Contact is going to be a good deal greater in the evening time,” he added._


----------



## odyssey06

Quick off the mark...


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

I went for a pint and tried to leave at 8pm just to test the concept.

Can't see this idea being part of the solution


----------



## joer

Paul O Mahoney said:


> I went for a pint and tried to leave at 8pm just to test the concept.
> 
> Can't see this idea being part of the solution


It might not be the solution but it can only help . I would say that you tried hard to leave at 8pm though .....


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

joer said:


> It might not be the solution but it can only help . I would say that you tried hard to leave at 8pm though .....


Pub magnets are hard to get away from.

Left at 9 lots of people filling up


----------



## joe sod

odyssey06 said:


> I think it would be a big mistake for the government to not push back on this, both for their political self-interest AND management of the pandemic.
> I think last November as well, the government were bounced into a Level 5 when Level 3+ would have been sufficient, but wasn't given enough time to kick in.
> 
> One of the 'carrots' to getting the vaccine was access to hospitality. Ditto for boosters.
> 
> Now we have a situation where government are scrambling to restart booster in 5th gear & shutting down hospitality?
> 
> Boosters should have been where the battle was fought and it should have been #1 priority for weeks now, now days.
> 
> Michael Martin's comments about booster vaccine reluctance looks worse by the day.


Exactly, then you have the open border with northern Ireland, we have completely diverged from them now, they all must think we have gone mad here. It's stuff like this that makes talk of a United Ireland a load of rubbish. The young will be flocking to Belfast now to party and will bring in the omicron anyway. You can go into a pharmacy and get free antigen tests there if you are worried about socializing. Why was this small measure not brought in instead of closing down hospitality yet again. 
There will be big political push back as a result of this, it's a step too far. The government should have been cracking the whip with niac to get them to speed up their decision making or just ignored them completely and just went with the European guidelines


----------



## joer

Fair City is been shown earlier next week as McCoy's pub and Foley's has to close at 8 ....


----------



## joe sod

joer said:


> Fair City is been shown earlier next week as McCoy's pub and Foley's has to close at 8 ....


Fact is stranger than fiction,


----------



## joer

joe sod said:


> Fact is stranger than fiction,


And that is a fact


----------



## joe sod

joer said:


> Fair City is been shown earlier next week as McCoy's pub and Foley's has to close at 8 ....


I wonder then just to be true to life will they show , McCoy s packed to the rafters on Sunday night with everyone trying to make the most of the last normal night before Christmas


----------



## joer

joe sod said:


> I wonder then just to be true to life will they show , McCoy s packed to the rafters on Sunday night with everyone trying to make the most of the last normal night before Christmas


I have never seen a crowd in McCoy,s  yet ......but there is always a first time.


----------



## joe sod

joer said:


> I have never seen a crowd in McCoy,s  yet ......but there is always a first time.


Yea that's the thing about fair city and rte dramas in general they can never do an authentic pub scene. They never have enough extras and the extras don't act naturally, a lot of the central actors don't act naturally either for that matter


----------



## Sunny

I think this thread has officially jumped the shark at this stage!!!


----------



## michaelm

odyssey06 said:


> That's the omicron "hope" ... we might be lucky with this variant.


The hope may not be in vain as again, despite sustained high case numbers, hospital numbers are hovering in the 400s and ICU numbers are down to 100.

I wonder how many hospital cases are incidental, hospitalised for something unrelated to Covid but then testing positive.  Perhaps such cases aren't included in the reported numbers, who knows.


----------



## Leo

michaelm said:


> I wonder how many hospital cases are incidental, hospitalised for something unrelated to Covid but then testing positive. Perhaps such cases aren't included in the reported numbers, who knows.


The reporting has always simply been based on those in hospital with confirmed infection. Going on 2 years of these stats that should be well understood!


----------



## odyssey06

michaelm said:


> The hope may not be in vain as again, despite sustained high case numbers, hospital numbers are hovering in the 400s and ICU numbers are down to 100.
> 
> I wonder how many hospital cases are incidental, hospitalised for something unrelated to Covid but then testing positive.  Perhaps such cases aren't included in the reported numbers, who knows.


That can happen, but aside from outbreaks in hospital, it would seem strange to me if some significant number of the 1/3 of the people in ICU in the country were covid+ and just 'incidentally' ended up there for other reasons? 
Given the background case rate in the country. 
I know people in hospital are all tested, but the general PCR tests has a positivity of 15%.

If someone has a heart attack, and tests positive, how do you determine if the covid was a trigger of this, or incidental?
Regardless you need to treat them and isolate them as covid patient also, putting extra strain on hospital logistics and staffing.

But fingers crossed those numbers hold as they are!


----------



## michaelm

odyssey06 said:


> I know people in hospital are all tested, but the general PCR tests has a positivity of 15%.


Maybe that answers my question.  I was really wondering whether ALL hospital admissions were tested for Covid and, if so, what percentage of the total might incidental cases make up.


odyssey06 said:


> If someone has a heart attack, and tests positive, how do you determine if the covid was a trigger of this, or incidental?
> Regardless you need to treat them and isolate them as covid patient also, putting extra strain on hospital logistics and staffing.


Agreed.  I'm more thinking of those admitted with an injury (head injury, compound fracture, etc) who then test positive.  I would class those as incidental.  Of course they have to be treated as a Covid patient and all that that entails but perhaps they shouldn't feed in to the statistics on how likely a Covid infection is to lead to hospitalisation.


----------



## michaelm

"Yesterday, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said that the number of patients with Covid-19 in hospital admitted for other reasons, but who test positive, is between 25-30%." according to RTE News.

The ICU figures seem quite stable and the tsunami of Omicron infections (perhaps twice the official case numbers) doesn't seem to be putting many people in hospital either.  Finally we might be allowed to just get on with it.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

I've broken out , I'm actually having a pint inside,  while the sun was out and I've walked 8km, in glorious winter sunshine,  I tried to sit out in the beer garden but too cold.....


----------



## Bluefin

I'm sitting here in the pub as well.. Half dozen or so but I'm only enjoying a coffee as I crazily decided to do dry January.. 

Is it not time to reopen hospitality back to 11pm for all at thís stage given that the case numbers are dropping and those in hospital and icu are very stable (30/40% cases in hospital are for non Covid19 reasons)?


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Bluefin said:


> I'm sitting here in the pub as well.. Half dozen or so but I'm only enjoying a coffee as I crazily decided to do dry January..
> 
> Is it not time to reopen hospitality back to 11pm for all at thís stage given that the case numbers are dropping and those in hospital and icu are very stable (30/40% cases in hospital are for non Covid19 reasons)?


Honestly,I think its time,  no pun intended,  we are now probably in the best space we have been since this started.

In 12 months we have vaccinated so many but we haven't really allowed that to seep in......"we really done good" , now its time to see if it all the sacrificing has  actually worked.

People need to know that and perhaps be allowed to prove that doing the right thing is worth it.


----------



## Purple

I've only been in the pub at least once a week since they opened back.


----------



## Firefly

Went to the local with a good friend for an hour last weekend. It was nice & quiet as we were early. To be totally honest...it was magic!


----------



## Purple

Firefly said:


> Went to the local with a good friend for an hour last weekend. It was nice & quiet as we were early. To be totally honest...it was magic!


I'll be going to the pub with my son for the Leinster game on Saturday. I can't wait.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Purple said:


> I'll be going to the pub with my son for the Leinster game on Saturday. I can't wait.


Careful now.


----------



## Firefly

Purple said:


> I'll be going to the pub with my son for the Leinster game on Saturday. I can't wait.


Can't wait until I can do that with mine... of course they'll have to sit there with a Coke as they'll be driving me home - for years!!


----------



## Purple

Firefly said:


> Can't wait until I can do that with mine... of course they'll have to sit there with a Coke as they'll be driving me home - for years!!


We can walk to mine.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Purple said:


> We can walk to mine.


How are going to " mix" with the unvaccinated crowd,  it'll be like getting a seat next to a Munster man in  the Aviva.

Munster abú


----------



## Purple

Paul O Mahoney said:


> How are going to " mix" with the unvaccinated crowd,  it'll be like getting a seat next to a Munster man in  the Aviva.
> 
> Munster abú


It’s handy when Munster play in the Aviva; their fans don’t have to go home for the match.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Came down for a pint just to see what, anything changed,  bearing in mind its Sunday and this gaff serves food ....answer very little. 

Everyone and I mean everyone either has a mask on arriving or simply going to the loo. My negative side thought it would be much different....


----------



## Salvadore

Went to pub last weekend for 40 minutes and picked up covid despite being triple vaxed. Return to Go!


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Salvadore said:


> Went to pub last weekend for 40 minutes and picked up covid despite being triple vaxed. Return to Go!


 Sorry to hear that. 
Perhaps 40 mins just isn't enough time for your immune system to react.  I find a couple of hrs optimal. 

Just trying to be lighthearted.


----------



## Salvadore

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Sorry to hear that.
> Perhaps 40 mins just isn't enough time for your immune system to react.  I find a couple of hrs optimal.
> 
> Just trying to be lighthearted.


Try harder


----------



## joer

There is one pub where I live and the staff don't wear masks at all and the crowds are crazy, I am told by my son so I believe it. Other pubs are better it seems.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Ordered a gin and tonic,  in a slim glass, it has just arrived without a straw , I thought we were passed the pandemic and normality has returned.......wtf?


----------



## EmmDee

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Ordered a gin and tonic,  in a slim glass, it has just arrived without a straw , I thought we were passed the pandemic and normality has returned.......wtf?



If it came WITH a straw it should be sent back


----------



## Paul O Mahoney




----------



## Paul O Mahoney

EmmDee said:


> If it came WITH a straw it should be sent back


I'm not a connoisseur,  yet.


----------



## Purple

Paul O Mahoney said:


> View attachment 6115


Is that a pub or a bordello?


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Rather than write an essay,  spent today painting skirting boards,  decided to " get the dust" out my throat thinking that itll be quite and a few pints would be nice. 

The reality is different,  its like Christmas people are dressed up, meeting up , one local company appears to be having its Christmas Party tonight.....and good luck to them. 

Just a note,  I'm not dressed up.


----------

