# Excess deaths less then COVID-19 figures.



## Drakon (3 Jul 2020)

C19 deaths ~1,700 versus excess deaths ~1,200.





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						COVID-19 causes 13% increase in deaths in Ireland between March and June 2020 - HIQA | HIQA
					






					www.hiqa.ie


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## Drakon (3 Jul 2020)

Sad, yes, but from these figures you can infer that approximately 500 fewer died from C19 itself, or they would have died during this period anyway. 
I know, it’s not a numbers game, don’t want to go down the Bob McNamara Vietnam casualties route, but it’s reassuring that our authorities are doing better then we originally thought. In the first surge anyway.


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## odyssey06 (3 Jul 2020)

There are also two other confounding factors:
* Touched upon in the article... _the suspension of elective activity in public acute hospitals, “may have a lasting impact on health outcomes, the effect of which may take years to be seen”. _
* It is possible that there was a small reduction in accident etc related deaths during the peak of the restrictions with less car travel and socialising


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## Seagull (3 Jul 2020)

Another potential factor is that covid has the highest mortality rate amongst the elderly and immunocompomised. How many of those who died from covid would have been likely to die in the same period from something else?


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## odyssey06 (3 Jul 2020)

Seagull said:


> Another potential factor is that covid has the highest mortality rate amongst the elderly and immunocompomised. How many of those who died from covid would have been likely to die in the same period from something else?



I think the implication of the article is that they make up most of the 500 discrepancy.


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## Conan (3 Jul 2020)

So if our excess mortality deaths are c1,100 and the number in the UK is estimated at 60,000 (since their official numbers only take into account confirmed COVID cases) , that represents a death rate of 4 times higher in the UK. And Boris (just like Trump) is still full of bluster claiming they have done a good job.


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## odyssey06 (3 Jul 2020)

Conan said:


> So if our excess mortality deaths are c1,100 and the number in the UK is estimated at 60,000 (since their official numbers only take into account confirmed COVID cases) , that represents a death rate of 4 times higher in the UK. And Boris (just like Trump) is still full of bluster claiming they have done a good job.



Not sure you can really compare Ireland with either country - we have a relatively young age profile for a western country, possibly we have less people in nursing home settings which is where the fatalities seemed to be concentrated. 
Also, we have less high density cities and large apartment blocks, both are major cluster points.

That doesn't necessarily mean either US or UK did a good job, just there's a lot of complicating factors.


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## mathepac (5 Jul 2020)

Drakon said:


> I know, it’s not a numbers game, don’t want to go down the Bob McNamara Vietnam casualties route, but it’s reassuring that our authorities are doing better then we originally thought.


But sure let's join in the numbers games anyway, meaningless and all as they are. Within countries, let alone across countries, our Dept of Health acknowledged that comparisons yield no meaningful insight or extra information. But they and Holohan continue to do it to make us in "the top 7 or 8" or "the top 10 or 14". See the Dept of Health response to a recent Sunday Times enquiry. For once I agree with the Dept of Health that this comparison game is pointless nonsense, as I've said consistently since the pandemic was identified as such.


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## mathepac (5 Jul 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> That doesn't necessarily mean either US or UK did a good job, just there's a lot of complicating factors.


South Korea did a great job, because they had a plan and executed that plan very well. According to their own (no doubt massaged and PR'd to within an inch of their lives) numbers they did appallingly badly. The US & UK that is, for clarity.


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## Drakon (6 Jul 2020)

mathepac said:


> But sure let's join in the numbers games anyway, meaningless and all as they are.



Do you think the excess death rate is meaningless?


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## Purple (6 Jul 2020)

The Pubs were closed, building sites were closed and there was far less road travel. Those alone will account for a large part of the drop in deaths which would otherwise have happened.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of deaths by age. It may well be that fewer younger people are dying and far more older people are dying.


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## Allpartied (6 Jul 2020)

Purple said:


> The Pubs were closed, building sites were closed and there was far less road travel. Those alone will account for a large part of the drop in deaths which would otherwise have happened.
> It would be interesting to see the breakdown of deaths by age. It may well be that fewer younger people are dying and far more older people are dying.



I think the number of deaths on the roads is higher this year than last.  Not quite sure why, but might be that the emptier roads have tempted people to drive faster and more recklessly. 
Building site fatalities are impressively low in Ireland, only in single figures. 
The pubs being closed may have reduced the number of Saturday night punch-ups, but again the fatality rate for those type of incidents is very small. 

What would be more interesting would be to see how fatalities in the general population pan out over the rest of the year. 
It might be that the death rate will fall, as the people who would have died from age related diseases, were killed by the Coronavirus a few months earlier than they otherwise would have died. 

Ultimately, the management of this pandemic is very difficult and the best method may not be known until a year or two has passed.


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## mathepac (6 Jul 2020)

Drakon said:


> Do you think the excess death rate is meaningless?


All deaths are tragedies. Labelling them as "excess" or another designation dehumanises the tragedy for the friends and families of the deceased, all the more so as the numbers people are touting have no basis in fact.


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## Purple (7 Jul 2020)

mathepac said:


> All deaths are tragedies. Labelling them as "excess" or another designation dehumanises the tragedy for the friends and families of the deceased, all the more so as the numbers people are touting have no basis in fact.


The term "Excess deaths" is used to describe those above the annual average.
If we have had 1700 deaths due to Covid19 but only 1300 more deaths than we would normally have had then either 400 people who would have died anyway died of Covid or 400 fewer people died due to changes in behaviour or a combination of both.


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## odyssey06 (28 Aug 2020)

Update on this: 
Excess mortality fell in July - unclear if this was due to the earlier spike or if distancing \ hygiene measures means there are less other viruses etc in circulation:

_Less people died from all causes during July than would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic...
This may suggest that up to half of those whose deaths were either "confirmed, probably or possibly" caused by Covid-19 during the first five months of the pandemic could have been likely to pass away from other causes during that period but that Covid-19 hastened their passing.  _









						Level of excess mortality fell last month - CSO figures
					

The level of excess mortality in Ireland caused by the coronavirus pandemic fell last month, according to updated analysis of death notices published by the Central Statistics Office.




					www.rte.ie


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## Purple (2 Sep 2020)

Now that Hospital staff are actually following hand hygiene guidelines we may see lower levels of MRSA as well.


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## Purple (7 Sep 2020)

Since mid June our 7 day moving average death rate had been between 1 and zero. 
Given that we have seen a big increase in cases what is the reduced death rate down to?
Is it the demographic or have treatments improved or are we just seeing more cases because we are doing more testing and diagnosing people who are less sick?


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## odyssey06 (7 Sep 2020)

Purple said:


> Since mid June our 7 day moving average death rate had been between 1 and zero.
> Given that we have seen a big increase in cases what is the reduced death rate down to?
> Is it the demographic or have treatments improved or are we just seeing more cases because we are doing more testing and diagnosing people who are less sick?



It is a bit of all of the above.
The demographics of those catching it aren't in at-risk groups.
Treatments have improved.
More testing is picking up asymptomatic cases.
Our official case count from the peak was an undercount, not everyone was being tested e.g. many with symptoms were not tested unless had returned from abroad, healthcare staff, or in vulnerable group.


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