# Bought apartment 12 months ago - value is still the same



## Unregistered (21 Apr 2005)

I bought an apartment 12 months ago from the plans. They still haven't been completed (but they should have some show apartments ready in the next month or two) and some are still available for sale but they are still selling for the same amount as they were 12 months ago.

Is that a sign of a "bad investment" or would the value of a property normally only increase when it physically exists?


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## Unregistered (26 Apr 2005)

If you have not improved , remodeled or redecorated the place in any way, why would you expect someone to pay more for it than you did?

I'm afraid it might be a taste of the new global property market as it begins its inevitable journey back to normality...


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## Unregistered (26 Apr 2005)

> would the value of a property normally only increase when it physically exists?



Is this one of those Zen things? Like 'what is the sound of one hand clapping'?


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## Unregistered (26 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> I bought an apartment 12 months ago from the plans. They still haven't been completed (but they should have some show apartments ready in the next month or two) and some are still available for sale but they are still selling for the same amount as they were 12 months ago.
> 
> Is that a sign of a "bad investment" or would the value of a property normally only increase when it physically exists?



i'd be supprised if they are actually still the same, they have probably fallen but builder won;t admit.

A poorly timed investment, I'd have looked into the market at the market in more detail before buying off plan! If you can hold on to it for 12 years + you way make some money on it (wish I was kidding). If not, either cut your losses/try to negotiate a new purchase price.


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## Unregistered (26 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> Why would you expect someone to pay more for it than you did?
> 
> 
> 
> > ah but sure isnt that why people are buying these days?  dont be paddy last on the great irish property pyramid..


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## ClubMan (26 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> Is that a sign of a "bad investment" or would the value of a property normally only increase when it physically exists?



If this was primarily as your principal private residence rather than a pure investment then does it really matter?


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## Unregistered (26 Apr 2005)

I'm afraid that smell you are catching in the wind is freshley brewed coffee my old son and if you prick up your ears you might just may be able to make out a fat bird clearing her throat.


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## extopia (26 Apr 2005)

I was starting to like you until the fat bird bit.


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## Unregistered (26 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> I bought an apartment 12 months ago from the plans. They still haven't been completed (but they should have some show apartments ready in the next month or two) and some are still available for sale but they are still selling for the same amount as they were 12 months ago.
> 
> Is that a sign of a "bad investment" or would the value of a property normally only increase when it physically exists?


U can only be sure if they sell (at all) for that price. As I can see house prices are coming down specially these off plans, u should b careful.


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## Gabriel (27 Apr 2005)

To the original poster...first of all, ignore the troll.

I wouldn't be overly concerned that prices haven't risen off plans like this. If the house/apartment is in a nice or developing area and it's appealing then the price should rise eventually. There is definitely evidence that price rises are slowing...the % points are getting smaller.

As Clubman pointed out if this is your primary residence then you shouldn't be overly worried. I own one property (my ppr) which I also bought off plans and between the time I bought and the time it was completed the price did not change...and it is in a fairly desirable area where houses are usually snapped up.

Look at the bigger picture and don't expect huge rises from the outset.


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## casiopea (27 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> I'm afraid that smell you are catching in the wind is freshley brewed coffee my old son and if you prick up your ears you might just may be able to make out a fat bird clearing her throat.




She is not fat. She is curvy or overweight...


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## Unregistered (27 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> i'd be supprised if they are actually still the same, they have probably fallen but builder won;t admit.
> 
> A poorly timed investment, I'd have looked into the market at the market in more detail before buying off plan! If you can hold on to it for 12 years + you way make some money on it (wish I was kidding). If not, either cut your losses/try to negotiate a new purchase price.



Yeah, it was very poorly timed. We'd have held off and bought a house if we'd known that the stamp duty for 1st time buyers was to be abolished 6 months down the line! Apart from that, we seem to have bought just as prices seemed to start levelling off.

When you say "looked into/at the market in more detail", what exactly do you mean? We did think about if it'd be a nice place to live, and according to most people, yes, it would be: nice area, very close to the train station, the beach, few pubs, restaurants... we also thought it would be fairly easy to rent because it's so close to the train station. So we could do that in a few years "if we end up needing more space" (as she puts it). So, even as an investment in that case, it'd be grand.

Anyway, as ClubMan rightly said, we did buy it to live there so it doesn't REALLY matter. We were just wondering if it was a bad sign or normal or what.


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## Unregistered (27 Apr 2005)

Gabriel said:
			
		

> To the original poster...first of all, ignore the troll.
> 
> I wouldn't be overly concerned that prices haven't risen off plans like this. If the house/apartment is in a nice or developing area and it's appealing then the price should rise eventually. There is definitely evidence that price rises are slowing...the % points are getting smaller.


Cheers Gabriel. Good to hear that. It's probably a good thing the profits are going down too: maybe now people will be able to move out of their ma's gaf at a half decent age (probably about 22, 23 I'd say?).

It's not right sleeping in the sitting room floor on a blow up mattress on a Saturday night.


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## Unregistered (27 Apr 2005)

People in this country will have to get used to the fact that property prices can go down as well as up.  Yes property does go down occasionally, and yes they have gone down in Ireland in the past (most of the 80s).  I'd be happy to supply the facts to anyone interested.

Whether prices will fall is another issue.  But to the original poster- make sure you can and that you will psychologically WANT to pay for something that may fall in value over the next few years.


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## Gabriel (27 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> People in this country will have to get used to the fact that property prices can go down as well as up.  Yes property does go down occasionally, and yes they have gone down in Ireland in the past (most of the 80s).  I'd be happy to supply the facts to anyone interested.



Hi,

I'd be interested in seeing that evidence please. Genuinely. Not necessarily doubting you, I just wasn't aware that prices fell (to any great extent) in Ireland during the 80's. I am aware of what interest rates did.


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## Van der Hoop (27 Apr 2005)

Don't worry, when all the SSIA's are cashed in as deposits house prices shall rise agian..if only for a couple of years....


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## Unregistered (27 Apr 2005)

Van der Hoop said:
			
		

> Don't worry, when all the SSIA's are cashed in as deposits house prices shall rise agian..if only for a couple of years....




I fear that SSIA's coming to the rescue of the Irish property market may be wishful thinking on behalf of the vested interests.

Only a minority have stated that they actually plan to spend the money and then of that group there's the spending on cars/holidays etc. rather than on property.

Besides, the bulk of the money comes in early 2007 and I suspect by that time the property market will have lost its shine and nobody will want to throw away their nesteggs on it.


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## Unregistered (27 Apr 2005)

people in this country have a genetic need to own their own home. for that reason, as long as we dont suffer a major population decline, the property market wont collapse. the worst that can happen is that prices stagnate and dont keep pace with inflation which although technically the same as a price drop is pyschologically different. 

people talk about vested interests and pyramid schemes. the thing here is that practically every irish citizen apart from some living in LA housing for the long haul,  either has a vested interest in this particular pyramid scheme, wants to be involved, has family involved or is being groomed by their parents from birth towards involvement.
pyramid schemes collapse when people start to cash in or new bottom rung members stop joining. 
i see neither happening in the short term in relation to our house market so dont think the prices will go into decline. what does seem to be happening is that apartments, a fairly new thing here are being increasingly seen as a less atttractive option - similarly priced as houses yet terrible lack of space and high maintenance charges etc. high density apartments in city centres are ok and justified and will always be saleable but developers here are throwing them up anywhere there is a spare sq.metre of land, even in little country towns where land is cheap. as people cop on to this it will make them ever more difficult to sell.


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## Unregistered (27 Apr 2005)

jaypers you just know we're heading for trouble when the vested interests who have hyped and pumped the property bubble are now trying to hide behind the ordinary citizens of Ireland. 

I can see it now...Pop goes the bubble and then  " er it wasn't our fault .. everyone was doing it !!"


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## Gabriel (28 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> people in this country have a genetic need to own their own home. for that reason, as long as we dont suffer a major population decline, the property market wont collapse. the worst that can happen is that prices stagnate and dont keep pace with inflation which although technically the same as a price drop is pyschologically different



You are of course 100% correct. But there will still be people harping on about "the bubble" in 2007. They'll point out that the great price raise is over and that price increases have been declining slightly over the past couple of years - which inevitably means the bubble is about to burst, of course. They'll be saying it in 10 years time too no doubt.
The trouble is they miss this very obvious fact.

As an investment you can make your mind up as to how the market will perform. But as your home/ppr, don't go telling me it's a mistake to buy. That stinks of the 'I can't afford to buy one so I'm going to rubbish the whole thing' mentality. Very poor.


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## Unregistered (28 Apr 2005)

It's blatantly obvious that property is no longer a good speculative investment and prices, as a result, will stagnate initially (look like a soft landing) and then very likely fall. 

The fear of being left behind on the property pyramid gets replaced by the fear of being the last sucker in.

The time is at last arriving for the property owning classes to re-evaluate their perceived wealth position and rejoin the real world from the current debt-fueled fantasy.

There'll be a big welcome back from many of us waiting patiently for you and house prices to return to fairer values.  ;-)


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## Gabriel (28 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> It's blatantly obvious that property is no longer a good speculative investment and prices, as a result, will stagnate initially (look like a soft landing) and then very likely fall.
> 
> The fear of being left behind on the property pyramid gets replaced by the fear of being the last sucker in.
> 
> ...




Well...you've won me over with your wealth of knowledge/rhetoric on the subject.


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## Unregistered (28 Apr 2005)

Gabriel said:
			
		

> Well...you've won me over with your wealth of knowledge/rhetoric on the subject.



sarcasm from a defender of the bubble - no surprise there !

You're probably beyond rescue but sure if we can prevent at least a few youngsters avoid the biggest mistake of their life by buying at the top of the market then I'll settle for that !


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## oysterman (28 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> maybe now people will be able to move out of their ma's gaf at a half decent age (probably about 22, 23 I'd say?).
> 
> It's not right sleeping in the sitting room floor on a blow up mattress on a Saturday night.


 
Missed this post yesterday.

What on earth is going on here? 

Do you get the impression that this is the voice of bitter (albeit bizarre) experience?


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## Gabriel (28 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> sarcasm from a defender of the bubble - no surprise there !
> 
> You're probably beyond rescue but sure if we can prevent at least a few youngsters avoid the biggest mistake of their life by buying at the top of the market then I'll settle for that !



Why not register yourself unregistered...so that we can discuss this at length in a years time...two years time...five years time etc.

I defend no bubbles. I don't believe there is one, or that it's going to burst. Bar your rhetoric on the subject I see no compelling evidence on your part that prices are about to plummet.
Present the evidence in a clear unambiguous form. Links to articles are not evidence.


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## Unregistered (28 Apr 2005)

My evidence that a Bubble exists:

http://bubbles.org/


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## Unregistered (28 Apr 2005)

For all those of you out there waiting for the "bubble to burst" why not try this fun game in the meantime ...

http://bubbles.org/html/games/bubblechase.htm


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## Unregistered (28 Apr 2005)

Gabriel said:
			
		

> Present the evidence in a clear unambiguous form. Links to articles are not evidence.



I'm am the Archangel of the Bubble and I shall define what evidence is - just in case !


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## TommyJ (29 Apr 2005)

I got 4 on the bubble game. It's harder than it looks. Anyone else done better?


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## Unregistered (29 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> The time is at last arriving for the property owning classes to re-evaluate their perceived wealth position and rejoin the real world from the current debt-fueled fantasy.
> 
> There'll be a big welcome back from many of us waiting patiently for you and house prices to return to fairer values.  ;-)


Since I put the deposit down on a house I have heard loads of stories from my parents, older neighbours, aunties, uncles etc, all telling me about when they bought their houses, which would mainly have been the early seventies, all of them with tales of woe along the lines of:

"things where tight then... there'd be no one moving into a fully furnished house. aw no, it took years and years to get all your bits and pieces"

"we were lucky to get a mortgage and when we got it it took more than half of your fathers wages, and me trying to rear two childen"

etc, etc.

I am certain that a lot of things have defintely changed for the worse in this country but I got to thinking that maybe the bottom line for 1st time buyers hasn't: if you want your own place then you'll have to pay THE PRICE, which is unfair and'll stretch you to the bloody limit.

Anyway, I hope you're comfortable there in the real world, because you could end up 





			
				Unregistered said:
			
		

> waiting patiently ...  ;-)


 for a long time.


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## Gabriel (29 Apr 2005)

Re the post just before me...

My father struggled hard to buy his first house. He had to work three jobs for it. I heard the same tales of woe from him. When I was buying my place he said exactly the same thing. Nothing has changed since the 60's and now. It was tough then and it's tough now. That's not magically going to change I don't think, despite what the 'bubble' crowd might want to believe.


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## Unregistered (29 Apr 2005)

I got 5 bubbles in the time !

Yippee !!!


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## Fintan (3 May 2005)

To the orginal poster, as long as you like the apartment & the area it is in and can afford to pay your mortgage when interest rates go up, then you should be able to ride out any price moves. 

Personally I think Irish property prices are over valued, especially compared to what you can get in the UK and Australia for the same price.


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## Unregistered (4 May 2005)

I also got 5 bubbles. It's very addictive altogether...


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## extopia (4 May 2005)

12 bubbles


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## Unregistered (5 May 2005)

To Gabriel who enquired about price declines in Ireland, the reference is:

Goldman Sachs, Global Economics Weekly, APril 30th, 2003, pg7
(sorry dont have web link)
The report claims 1979-86 real house prices in Ireland fell 26.2%.  Report outlines all the major property 'busts' in major OECD countries.


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## Unregistered (5 May 2005)

*Just one point to make...*

sentiment is changing...


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## Unregistered (5 May 2005)

Just speculating here (nothing wrong with speculation, right?) but with all the big money sloshing around in the property business it must be hard being a low-paid (or otherwise) academic and not be influenced in one way or another by this.

Wasn't there a time when "big tobacco" had research papers published to show the benefits of smoking ? They were really impressive too with statistics, equations and conclusions and what not.


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## Unregistered (5 May 2005)

10 bubbles


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## Gabriel (5 May 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> To Gabriel who enquired about price declines in Ireland, the reference is:
> 
> Goldman Sachs, Global Economics Weekly, APril 30th, 2003, pg7
> (sorry dont have web link)
> The report claims 1979-86 real house prices in Ireland fell 26.2%.  Report outlines all the major property 'busts' in major OECD countries.





I'm aware of the new guideline regarding just putting links in as replies but I hope that this link will be viewed in the light that it's intended. I came across this by chance and haven't even read all of it...but it represents a much rounder and fairer assessment of the present housing situation than I've heard here so far.

One of the points it makes in relation to house prices in the '90's is that they were extremely undervalued. It also talks about bubbles but doesn't seem biased about it so makes for interesting reading.

The article is entitled..."Are House Prices determind by Fundamentals".

Read on...
[broken link removed]


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## Unregistered (6 May 2005)

Gabriel, in January of 2000 you could have piled up all the analysis of why Nortel was $145/share (Can $) and why Cisco, Yahoo, etc, etc were trading at such prices.  A lot were charlatans, but a lot was also honest, convincing, plausible, sound arguments, based on facts;  in short the prices made 'sense'.  Trouble is, as I found out starting around March 2000, markets are more influenced by sentiment than by anything else.  Especially markets built on the premise of selling on to the next player.  Fewer and fewer people decided that they didnt want Nortel at $145, or at $120, or at $99, or indeed at $50... didnt make sense, doesnt make sense, but dems the facts.  Last time I checked you can buy Nortel today for < $3.00.  (BTW in case you're not familiar Nortel aint no .com pipsqueak- they're still around making things and employ >50,000 people).

ANyway, my point is not about shares vs. property vs. US$ vs. bonds vs. bananas.  My point is, and was raised above on this thread, SENTIMENT is shifting... you can feel in the air... the UK is looking down the barrel of a massive switch in market sentiment.... markets are markets are markets, and people are people with the same fear/greed conflict.... 

At the end of the day, make sure your exposure to the housing market here is limited to having an affordable roof over your head and zero speculative interest.  cos I reckon 'investors' in this market, like everyone last into any pyramind scheme, are going to have their heads handed to them... €250,000 for a 500stft apartment in D1 is gonna look like a sad joke when the panic subsides in a few years...


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## Unregistered (6 May 2005)

The last comment is very true. The sentiment on investing in houses is changing all over the world, just look at the amount of postings on the issue on this site. A year ago there were very few people making such postings. Of course houses are not as speculative as shares such as nortel. The only reason people bought shares in nortel was to make money so the speculative element in it was very high. Of course most people buy houses just to live in, but there has been an increasing speculative nature in the market over the last 5 years. This means that as the investment sentiment in housing turns the speculative element will be shaken out. This will result in a significant drop in prices but not a collapse like that of nortel shares because people still need to live in houses. My biggest worry is not what happens to house prices but what happens the irish economy, construction and building account for a disproportionate size of it. Also the amount of irish services such as solicitors and accountants dependant on a strong housing market is cosiderable. So in general if you bought your house just to live in and if your job has no dependance on a stong housing market I would not be too worried.


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## Unregistered (6 May 2005)

The above posts #41 and #42 are excellent.  I often hear the argument that people need houses to live in and this somehow provides a protection to house prices. But it's the activity at the margins that impacts price.

As MA Nystrom writes on bullnobull.com :
"In economics, as in life, all the interesting activity takes place at the margins.....Just think of them (speculators) as the day traders of yore, adding no value but simply pushing up prices, crowding out legitimate buyers and artificially inflating values, squeezing out money from pure emotions. But these investors aren't in the game for fun - their investments have to make profits. This can happen only one of two ways, either through rents or capital appreciation. There is evidence that rents are no longer doing the trick ....so in order for the speculators to make profits, more speculators - or legitimate buyers -- must enter the market. The greater fool theory lives on. "

It ends 
"If you are looking to invest, just realize that you're playing a game of chicken. You may come out ahead, or you may not. Beware that the signs of a top are present"


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## Unregistered (9 May 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> My point is, and was raised above on this thread, SENTIMENT is shifting...



Confirmed..

http://www.rte.ie/business/2005/0509/consumer.html

I just loved the phrase 

"Mr Hughes says that households may be signalling an increasingly marked disconnect between very buoyant economic commentaries and restrained perceptions of their own spending power"

I think you can translate "signalling an increasingly marked disconnect" to "not swallowing the hype"   ;-)


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## Unregistered (9 May 2005)

I own 2 houses (1 ppr and 1 investment) so I do have a vested interest in the property market. I would tend to agree that the market is slowling down, although I'm not too sure that the "bubble" is about to burst.
The way I see it is that there is an over supply of apartments and 2 bed town houses. They are eveywhere!
The town where I live has seen planning granted in the last year for several new developments (over 1200 new homes) the majority of which will be apartments and 2 bed townhouses. Only 1 of these developments appears to have a good mix of 3/4/5 bed houses and these sold out in an afternoon (top price was well over 500k). Another estate with about the same number of houses but all 2/3 beds (about 12 4 beds) has been onsale for the last 6-7 months and still hasn't sold out (even after dropping the prices 10k-20k).

If I was starting out now I would avoid buying any apartment or small 2/3 bed townhouse unless they are part of development with a similar number of larger semi-detached and detached houses. If I had the money I'd go for the 3/4 bed semi or larger. A sense of community in an estate/area makes it more desirable thus adding value, but if all the homes are just rental and/or starter homes then the population is going to be (to quote a Co. Co.) "transient with little sense of community". To add to that... less desirable and poor investment.

Even though the the market does appear to be slowing, if you remember the golden rule of property "location, location, location", I don't think you can go wrong.


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## Unregistered (9 May 2005)

Fintan said:
			
		

> To the orginal poster, as long as you like the apartment & the area it is in and can afford to pay your mortgage when interest rates go up, then you should be able to ride out any price moves.
> 
> Personally I think Irish property prices are over valued, especially compared to what you can get in the UK and Australia for the same price.



I wouldn't take the UK as a good example now, the prices went crazy again there and are now in decline in many places.  To be honest I'd say many areas of Ireland compare favourably to the UK now, even taking the whole Euro/Sterling argument into account.


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## Unregistered (9 May 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> Even though the the market does appear to be slowing, if you remember the golden rule of property "location, location, location", I don't think you can go wrong.



I'd like to add another "location" rule that's getting easier to apply these days. "Locate" your position on the house price inflation graph.

Look at the graph that opens on this webpage and the arrow that locates you on the graph. ("You are here")

[broken link removed]

Now this graph is for the UK (anyone have a link to the Irish one?) but the Irish graph is even more severe.

I think the new golden rule should be: Buy in a good location AT A TIME when house prices have not gone "exponential". Then you can't go wrong !

Best of Luck!


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## Unregistered (10 May 2005)

Here’s what I think is the sequence of events about to unfold here.

What’s currently happening:
Cash among FTBs dried up long ago.  But cash was gradually replaced by family support, untraceable secondary loans and loose lending.  Now this is drying up.  Serious FTBs, that is ones who can actually fork out the readies will be, if they are not already, more or less extinct.  What we’ll be left with is high end residential trades- I’ll swap my €750 house in Stillorgan for your €500k high spec apartment in Dun Laoghire.  This will be the norm for a while yet.  What’s also currently happening is rent, especially for apartments, is coming down.  It will stay this way until supply falls to meet demand.

Then:
When liquidity dries up several things happen.  First, trade volume gets thin.  Estate agents/auctioneers need volume to make a crust and it will be in their interests to lower valuations to get the volume back into the market again.  Vendors of course will resist lowering prices tooth and nail, so inevitably many estate agents/auctioneers will go bust.  Many would-be vendors will see the signs and will withdraw from the market and/or focus paying down the mortgage.  There will be a long period of a very, very stagnant market, a ‘stand-off’ if you like, with very low turnover.  It could stay like this for a while.  The second thing that happens is sentiment firmly goes the other way;  “I have to get on the ladder at any cost today” is replaced by “Sure prices are stagnant, I’ll wait and see what happens and save more deposit”.  People will come around to thinking as follows:  “My rent is less than the interest on a mortgage for the same place, pricing are falling/stagnant and I’m able to save for a bigger deposit as every month goes by”.

The end game:
The stalemate will be resolved in favour of buyers.  Why?  Because in a stagnant market with cautious buyers there’s always more distressed sellers on the margin than distressed buyers.  Prices in free markets are set on the margin, ask any 1st year student of economics.  In any case, the marginal distressed seller- divorce, kids, job loss, higher interest rates- will have to accept whatever price they can get.  They’ll have no choice because cash will be king and serious buyers will have tremendous leverage to ratchet trade prices down and down.  As one distressed seller after another accepts a lower price the falls gain moment, more people go into neg equity, and sentiment goes well and truly ugly.  This part of the sequence is swift and brutal.  (Aside, my guess is because the economy here is so tied to property there’ll be a recession brought on by the collapse of prices and this will make things even uglier).  

Soon after this people lose interest in property.  Property shows will cease to be aired on TV.  Prices will flatten out.  Then it becomes economic to purchase property again- because after all it’s good to own property long-term when bought at a good price.


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## tonka (10 May 2005)

A Great Deflation 101 lesson there for y'all. 

I'd say the deflationary cycle will run from 2005 to 2010 with a big effort by Dan McGuffinagain to talk us all out of it in 2007 when the SSIA's come in big time. Thats unless prices fall a lot (20-25%)  between now and 2007 when the SSIAs will be used to kickstart the market again no doubt .   I would personally rather get it all over with in 2 years than be faced with a Japanese type scenario where the bubble burst in 1990 with property still going down it seems. 

The last UK slump lasted from 1990 to 1996 if one recalls .


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## Unregistered (10 May 2005)

The UK slump has started again according to the BBC news


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## Unregistered (11 May 2005)

Surely the market isn't one mass entity capable of being defined singularly? Will the red brick period within a mile of Dublin city suffer the same fate as a white box in the commuter belt suburban maze?


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## tonka (11 May 2005)

No, the old _Location Location Location_ maxim applies as always . If the market tanks badly then the D6 redbrick will suffer less of a fall than the suburban boxeen .


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## Unregistered (11 May 2005)

Obviously period houses in D4 are not in the same league as boxes in blanchardstown.

The going market price of a property is determined by the last transaction(s) of a comparable property.  This principle is true for anything traded in a free market.  You'll get few takers for your house at €250k if a more or less identical one across the street sold for €235k last week.


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