# Despite good news are people still wary?



## DerKaiser (4 Dec 2013)

I was just thinking through all the progress we've made of late that has been reported. Positive stories include:
1) We've got our money back on BOI and Irish Life (€5bn+)
2) unemployment rate is down to 12.5%, driven by an actual increase in jobs rather than emigration (it has steadily improved for 17 months)
3) 10 year govt bond yields are around 3.5% and we have been able to exit the bailout
4) We look like we might actually achieve our budget deficit targets by 2015
5) Our competitiveness has gradually been restored, particularly compared to the UK

This is nothing short of miraculous given where we were a few years ago, yet this forum is eerily quiet. Are people still wary?


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## Bronte (5 Dec 2013)

I think people are jaded DerKaiser, and beaten down. 

On point 2, in the last week I've heard of at least 3 good companies either closing down or making a lot of people redundant. I'm convinced the figures are good because young people are emigrating in droves. 

As I visit regularly, have you not seen the town centres, the empty shops with hoardings, I've seen Waterford and Cork in particular, Limerick never seemed to be a factor in the boom, and was always gloomy to me, so I don't see a massive change there, Sligo is bad, Galway seems to be ok, Dublin also ok. 

Also seen a big change in the types of shop, a lot of charity shops, and recently I saw something new, shops buying clothing (I think that was what it was).

On a positive note, I have noticed in my own family that they are more in employment than they previously were, couldn't get parking in a Superquinn supermaket in Dublin recently, so that's good maybe. But I've always thought it hard to park in Irish supermarkets. And I wonder do the out of town places take business from town centres.

Another positive, I went to see a housing development, 100K for new 3 bed semi d's.  Was told most were sold out of the 20, and indeed they were sold, that's way below cost.  Another positive is that people don't want 3 bed semi d's, they want 4 bed semi's or a detached.  A negative on what I went to see, still bad layouts, atrocious in fact.


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## Sunny (5 Dec 2013)

DerKaiser said:


> I was just thinking through all the progress we've made of late that has been reported. Positive stories include:
> 1) We've got our money back on BOI and Irish Life (€5bn+)
> 2) unemployment rate is down to 12.5%, driven by an actual increase in jobs rather than emigration (it has steadily improved for 17 months)
> 3) 10 year govt bond yields are around 3.5% and we have been able to exit the bailout
> ...


 
I was thinking about this the other day. I think people are still wary and rightly so. If you look at all the good news, you can see it still hanging by a thread.

1. BOI might need more capital and there is no guarantee private investors will cough up (Unlikely I admit)
2. Unemployment is still 12.5%. I know it has improved but it is still extremely high. And there is a lingering problem with youth and long term unemployment. 
3. Bond yields are low but you have to wonder if they are artificially low or at least questionable from a fundamentals point of view. There is huge liquidity across the globe now and people have been chasing yield. What happens when the US and the UK stop printing? What happens if Portugal or Spain deteriorates once again. Irish yields are at the whim of the market. 
4. I think the targets will be met but I still have serious concerns about growth. I also think we are fast approaching the limit for cuts. People have had five years of it and a lot of people have suffered. 
5. I can't argue against that. The only areas we haven't made progress is in areas like energy costs, high rents, cost of legal and other professional services. 

Still, it is Christmas so I prefer your version of events!


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## PadKiss (5 Dec 2013)

Hi all
I agree to some degree with the positives, but like most commentary there is also the negative side but rather than focus on these let me sound some words of caution on our progress to date from what i meet on a daily basis.
Gov spending is still way too high compared to what we bring in (Health and welfare especially)
There was an opportunity missed in the Troika phase of the correction
The economy is showing signs of shoots of a recovery but this is in a period of historical low interest rates, what happens when the turn on rates happens.
A mention tothe sector of our society who lost everything in the share price collaspe of our banks and have never been heard from (they would have been viewed as the better off, alot of them elderly), this sector are really struggling at present but you will not hear from them. I find it a real irriatation to hear BOI and their announcements recently knowing all these people are out there and have lost everything (dividend and share value). 
Shoots of recovery yes but alot of it is down to the people of Ireland and their response either by surviving, leaving, or just hard work. Just my thoughts and happy Christmas to all, Padraic


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## DerKaiser (5 Dec 2013)

PadKiss said:


> Shoots of recovery yes but alot of it is down to the people of Ireland and their response either by surviving, leaving, or just hard work. Just my thoughts and happy Christmas to all, Padraic


Captured it perfectly - I think we have put our heads down and responded in a very positive way to drive these shoots of recovery.

Happy Christmas to you to Padraic.


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## Firefly (5 Dec 2013)

The current wave of news is good, but I think we are heading (along with a lot of the western world, it has to be said) for a full/partial bond default. Can you imagine the strain on the taxpayer if/when interest rates rise on this:
http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php


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