# Daytrading Stocks and Futures from Ireland.



## dtwomey (25 Jul 2003)

Hi All,

I am quite surprised that there is not some serious discussions on the Daytrading of Stocks and Futures from Ireland on the AAM site.As we have finally got access to ADSL Broadband at a realistic price ( not in all areas yet, but should be within a year or so ) we are now in a position to compete against others traders worldwide.Daytrading, which when referred to from now on, will mean the buying and selling of either a Stock or a Futures Contract within the same day, with no positions being held overnight.The daily trading can range from the buying / selling of 1 lot of shares ( 100 to 1000+), or 1 Futures Contract (  1 contract lot) to trading multiple lots throughout the day.It is entirely up to the Individual and the amount of Risk that one is willing to take, in relation to the amount of Profit that one considers may be attainable.

A lot of readers may find it surprising to find out that there are actually full time Daytraders operating in Ireland - myself being one of the few.After 3 years of part time trading, I decided to go fulltime and have set up for Daytrading Nasdaq Tech Stocks and the E-mini Es Futures Contract ( the E-mini Es is a small version of the full S&P500 Futures Contact, and is 1/5th the size which makes it a realistic trading instrument for the small trader, the majority of traders now fall into the small trader group and make up about 70% - 80% of the market liquidity).

Daytrading offers two main possibilities to interested individuals.The first, is that it offers one the opportunity to make additional income along with their present employment status ( that is of course providing that they are in a position to allocate some capital and time throughout the week to trading the markets ), and not to be relying on other people or Orginasitions to take control of their finances.The second, which I have decided myself to do after deciding to take the first opportunity mentioned, is to make Daytrading a full time career.This is obviously a harder decision than the first, and can not be made unless the first possibility is proven - common sense I would say.

The real problems start with the second opportunity.When one starts full time Daytrading, everything has to change in order to become successful.Without going into detail, which most will not be able to relate to unless they have experienced the first opportunity, the biggest drawback is actually yourself and your emotions.This can only be experienced by active participation.To become a successful trader involves understanding that success is 80% psychological and 20% methodological.The reason why 95% of traders do not make it a success is because they do not understand, until it is too late anyway and thier trading capital has nearly disappeared, that "EMOTION" is the enemy of successful traders.

Some will argue that trading Stocks and Futures is a zero sum game, and they are of course entitled to their opinion.In reality, when one decides to Daytrade, for extra income or as as a full time career, the desired net end result is a profit at the end of the month ( we will say month as any trading system can not base results on a daily time period ).This profit can be attained, but only if one is willing to change their whole beliefs about how much money "I" really deserve in relation to the time it took to acquire that amount.Unknown to yourself, and this has happened me on many occasions in the past, you will give the money back because your subconcious (which you have no control over )will say to you that this is not right, I do not deserve to make 1,000 dollars in 5 minutes, which normally takes me a week or two to make.This is what the Emotional side of trading is all about.Most people also feel that they have to be right, and will not accept that they are wrong, which results in them staying with a losing position and not cutting their losses.But which would you rather have happen to yourself: Be Right or make Money.Sure we will all say make money, but how many will actaully make the commitment it takes to become in the "Right" frame of mind.Very few, and these few are what I call the Professional Traders.This is the route that I have chosen to take and strive towars, and this is I must say, the most difficult job that I have ever undertaken.However, we are all aware of the potential rewards that can be achieved, and believing that you are able to achieve and deserving of these rewards, is the first step to becoming successful.The mechanics are only the tools of the trade, which of course you must have in order to do your job, but understanding and mastering the emotional side of trading is the key to whether you become a succes or not.

I will answer all questions posted in reply to this, but it may be several days before I get back to it.I would appreciate if any basic questions could first be reserched before anyone asking, as there are a lot of good search engines that will find links to good sites in relation to Daytrading.I do not mean to ignore anyone or any question posted in reply to this, but my time is limited at the moment.Also, any person is welcome to express thier own opinion in relation to Daytrading, and all that I would ask is that they are talking with some sort of experience behind them, for it is not fair to other readers expressing an opinion about something that you have not had an experience with - especially if you are going on an experience which has been the result of some other person's activity.One important note to make as well. in relation to responses, is that for the purpose of this discussion, we do not take the Irish or UK Stock Exchanges into account.This is due to several factors, namely being commissions  ,transparency and liquidity.It is ten times harder to Daytrade these markets than the US Stock and Futures Markets.

Please feel free to reply, whatever your questions may be.

DT


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## ClubMan (25 Jul 2003)

Oh dear.... :\  I don't have time/inclination to deal with all of this but...

*Some will argue that trading Stocks and Futures is a zero sum game, and they are of course entitled to their opinion.*

I would argue (from experience too) that daytrading is generally a negative sum gain due to trading costs even if these are lower in the US or with online brokers that locally (ISE/LSE etc.).

*This profit can be attained, but only if one is willing to change their whole beliefs about how much money "I" really deserve in relation to the time it took to acquire that amount.Unknown to yourself, and this has happened me on many occasions in the past, you will give the money back because your subconcious (which you have no control over )will say to you that this is not right......*

This whole paragraph is meaningless gobbledegook as far as I can see peppered with this stuff about emotion etc. and built on the premise that _"Professional Traders"_ actually know what they're doing and that they somehow have more insight into the markets than any other participant or observer - a basic contradiction of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. 

*It is ten times harder to Daytrade these markets than the US Stock and Futures Markets.*

Ten? Where does that figure come from then?

Daytrading with a small amount of money that one can afford to lose is great craic for a bit of an adrenaline rush (if you're that way inclined), as an educational exercise and for the arguably slim possibility of making some money but for serious investments one would be better advised to buy and hold long term in my view.


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## rainyday (26 Jul 2003)

> This profit can be attained, but only if one is willing to change their whole beliefs about how much money "I" really deserve in relation to the time it took to acquire that amount.Unknown to yourself, and this has happened me on many occasions in the past, you will give the money back because your subconcious (which you have no control over )will say to you that this is not right, I do not deserve to make 1,000 dollars in 5 minutes, which normally takes me a week or two to make.This is what the Emotional side of trading is all about.



I was actually taking this post seriously until I read this psycho-babble. This is no basis for a career.


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## MOB (28 Jul 2003)

*Day trading*

I have no particular views on the "psychobabble" of day trading, but I do have a retired Aunt   She says she has consistently made money on the stock market by speculative buying and selling.  She was in the UK all her working life and she maintains, with great simplicity, that most of the City are coked up to their eyeballs, hung over and overly prone to the herd mentality.  She maintains that any time she needs to make money, she can go out and make it on the stock market, because it doesn't take a lot to predict the behaviour of the galloping herd.  She is not a "day trader", nor does she spend much time at this - she has enough money and would have no interest in making money for its own sake.

Now it may well be that she has tended to overlook investment failures, and to overly dwell on successes, which is a perfectly human trait;  but I don''t think so.  We have only discussed this topic perhaps twice in three years - so she is not one to harp on.  I think that she has given me the simple truth - that she can make money on the stock market when she wants, and that she has a track record to prove it.

I don't say that just anybody can do this - I certainly wouldn't even try, and I count myself as reasonably confortable with risk.   However, from this and other anecdotal evidence, I am quite convinced that some people manage to consistently make above average returns on the stock market.   (I am not talking about day traders, but still speculative buying and selling).


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## daltonr (29 Jul 2003)

*Re: Day trading*



> I am quite convinced that some people manage to consistently make above average returns on the stock market.



This reminds me of the Joke headline.  "SHOCK half of all students below average reading ability."

Just remember that above average doesn't mean profit.  if the average is a 20% loss, you can be above average by making a 19% loss.

I'm inlcined to believe that the people providing services to the Day Traders are the ones who get rich.  Just like the people who got rich during the Gold Rush were the ones selling shovels.

-Rd


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## MOB (29 Jul 2003)

*Speculative stock buying*

Just to be clear,  I think the number of people who consistently get above average investment returns is tiny, but I don't think it is totally random - there are some people who seem to be good at this on a consistent basis.   We cannot possibly hope to emulate them on a wide scale, because it is as DaltonR points out, a statistically impossibility for these results ever to be anything other than the results of a minority.

For almost all investors, the correct advice is that you should not try to time the market or beat the market - but a small (very small) few do manage to do just that on a more-often-than-not basis.  I rather suspect that our Daytrader friend who started this discussion is not one of these, but who knows.


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## daltonr (29 Jul 2003)

*Re: Speculative stock buying*



> I rather suspect that our Daytrader friend who started this discussion is not one of these, but who knows.



Let's be fair though.  As Get Rich Quick Schemes go his is not the worst.  At least he's not selling a pyramid scheme.  

-Rd


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## Brendan Burgess (5 Aug 2003)

*Re: Speculative stock buying*

Hi MOB

There is a huge tendency among gamblers and day traders to ignore their losses. You will often hear statements:  "I am up 20% a year, every year for the past 5 years - excluding my losses on Elan, of course"

Let's assume for the moment that your aunt is correctly recording all her gains and losses. That still doesn't mean a lot.

The first measure is whether or not she is beating the buy and hold strategy. A lot of speculators get returns of 5% and consider this a profit. But if the market generates 10% over the period, it should be considered a loss. 

Let's say that she is measuring her profits correctly _and_ she is beating the buy and hold strategy. The next question is what level of risk is she taking? Is she punting very large amounts of money on one or two stocks? Maybe she is borrowing to invest? Such a strategy which will beat the market most of the time, but will blow up disastrously on the few occasions it goes wrong.

Let's now say that she is measuring her results accurately and that she is beating a buy and hold strategy and that she is not taking excessive risks. The final question is why is she beating the market? The most probably explanation is that she has just been lucky. And it might even be a very long streak of good luck. There are lots of other aunties with coke based investment strategies who have given up investing and have gone back to the knitting. We only hear the stories from the survivors.

Brendan


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## dtwomey (10 Aug 2003)

*Re: Daytrading*

Apologies for the delay in responding.

I am not going to argue for or against any statement made by any individual. Every person is entitled to their own opinion. I personally do not criticise any person for their statements, and would never copy and paste some other persons remarks -along with my own opinion. This, I believe, could have a negative effect on some individuals, who may not be as confident as others in their ability to express their opinions. This is just my personal thought on this matter, and I do not mean offence to any person.

Daytrading is nothing like Investing. When you are trading the markets on a daily basis to pay your bills and draw a monthly salary, you will soon discover what it is really all about, due to having to.

The only thing that I would like to point out is that is it like any other profession, it takes a long time to learn how to do it right. This is where a lot of traders make the big mistake, and rush in thinking it is as simple as sitting down and start buying and selling based on a 200,100,50,20 day moving average, or some other magical technical indicator like Bollinger Bands or Stochastics.I decided, after many years of hard work, and making good money for other people, that I wanted to take control of my own time and try and put my past experiences to work for myself ( which had nothing to do with daytrading, by the way).Daytrading was the only profession that I saw as a means to achieving my goals, thus my present status.

Some members mentioned such things as gobblygoo and stories of rich aunties, etc, etc.As I said, everyone is entitled to their opinion. I will only say that when one exposes oneself to other peoples interpretation of events (as these posts are) it is worthwhile noting that what are you are seeing is a description of the persons understanding based on their past experiences and beliefs. The secret, or KEY here, is to recognise this and to not let any one individuals' interpretation, including myself, impress too much on any decision that you may make. The only person that is responsible for your actions is "yourself", and no one else. Take the relevant value from the reading, and move on. If you decide to trade on a daily basis, once a week,month or year, then it is entirely up to you, the only logical thing that I will say, is that it has been proven it is more beneficial to have some type of trading plan, no matter how basic it is, and more important to have the discipline to stick to it.

For myself, daytrading stocks is a selective process that involves no need for understanding any fundamental issues related to the issue - I would even go as far as saying that some of the times I would not even know the name of the company, only it's symbol. When I do not need to know, I do not waste the time in finding out. Screening and setups takes about 2 Hrs prior to market opening. On average, about 2-3 Hrs trading opportunity per week is presented, which is normally concentrated in the 09:30  - 11:00 timeframe.This equates to about 2 active days - although this can sometimes turn out to be 3-4 days per week, depending on volatility. A lot of the time is spent doing nothing - and this is as important as active trading. Position holding is normally between 15sec and 15 minutes, depending on market movement. Futures trading is a totally different approach, with more timeframe opportunity - normally presenting tradable opportunities on a daily basis. Most traders overtrade, feeling that they have to be trading whenever the markets are open, operating with no guidelines or rules, and they then blame everything else when they loose money. To myself, and a lot of traders that I have had discussions with from around the world, the many psychological issues encountered when trading are far from gobblygoo, and the realisation of this can  have a significant bearing on whether one makes trading a successful career, or not. It took me a long time to discover this, so I am not one bit surprised by the comments, as I would have said exactly the same thing in the past myself.

Not to accept that there may be a better and easier way to fulfil our needs, is the same as cutting off one limb, and I am sure that none of us would do that. Once we start to think that there may be some better way, we start our imagination working, and this starts our in built Success Mechanism , which has been scientifically proven to be a major component of the successful individual. I can assure any reader that this is not gobblygoo, and top professionals from all walks of life, including golfers to top sports athletes, have and continue to use techniques, that are in effect psychological. Simple research will verify these points, do not take my word alone on this matter.

The answer to all our problems lies within ourselves - and the sooner we realise this and stop relying on other people to give us the "answer", the greater chance we have of attaining our realistic goals that we  set for ourselves. Through Hypnosis, some of the strongest men in the world have been unable to pick up a pencil, why ?, because the hypnotist has made the subject "believe" that they can not pick up the pencil. This belief is so strong that the subconscious overrides the conscious effort to pick up the pencil, by contracting the necessary muscles in the arm to prevent the pencil from being lifted. No matter how much the subject tries to pick up the pencil, he will not be able to do it. This is a very good description of what can be achieved by understanding the psychological issues and how our success mechanism works. Again, I must say that this is not gobblygoo, for Tiger Woods and many other top professional use psychological techniques to improve their performance ( reach their realistic goals) on a daily basis. For Daytrading, or any profession for that matter, the only difference is the set of Guidelines or Rules that is required in order that we can attain our realistic set goal.


Regards

DT


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## Gobblygoo (11 Aug 2003)

*What are you on about?*

"this starts our in built Success Mechanism , which has been scientifically proven to be a major component of the successful individual."

Mr Twomey

I don't really know what your post is all about. I have a vague idea, but it's all a bit Gree to me. 

Could you perhaps quote some of the scientific references for an in-built success mechanism? I have never heard of it apart from a mention at the "Mind Body and Spirit Festival". I think the guy was advertising" Boost your in-built Success Mechanism with gong therapy"

Gobbly


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## piggy (12 Aug 2003)

*Re: Daytrading*

I have to say I'm a bit amazed at the general backlash against dtwomey. I've read about (I stress 'read about' as opposed to actually 'done') daytrading in some detail of recent months. There are a lot of people making money (full-time) on the markets by both day trading and intermediate term trading.
I don't want to wade into this arguement with..."I know this bloke...", because I know how iffy and vague it sounds, but I do have an uncle, a well known business figure of bygone years who is now retired and makes his money doing exactly what dtwomey does. I know the man well and know he makes a lot of money doing what he does. You'll have to trust me on that. I can't provide you with his latest financial statement, but I know that he does consistently make more money than he loses. Most traders do this by watching the markets very closely all day, every day until they go cross-eyed. 
I do not think that to 'buy and hold' is the only way to invest in the markets.

Piggy.


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## dtwomey (16 Aug 2003)

*Re: Daytrading*

Hi All,

Firstly, I must say I like the username Gobblygoo, nice to see a sense of humour  

In relation to Piggy's uncle, I am quite sure that what he says can indeed be true and realistic.In relation to " buy & hold" strategies, it is entirely up to the individual how he/she performs.The famous third person " The Market " , which you hear continually mentioned on CNBC and other financial talk shows, can not do anything to any person other than what that person allows it to do.Trading the markets is not  like gambling, as most people think.It can actually be worse, if you do not fully understand what you are doing, and I don't just mean the mechanics of trading.With a lot of gambling, your participation is passive - this in effect means that to loose your bet, or win, you do not have to participate any further in the game once your bet is placed.With trading, you have to be an active participant.To loose your bet,or win, you have to (or your broker acting on your account ) participate.Unfortunately, due to our emotions ( mainly that of Greed and Fear ) most traders and investors, tend to be passive, until of course they are forced to sell at a lower price (due to greed and not getting out when they should have), or they sell too soon at a higher price (due to fear and not waiting for that high multiple win that is required in order to make money on a consistent basis).This is worst than gambling, for the person had the chance to take a small loss, even when the game had only started and had shown clearly that the the outcome was probably not going to be as first anticipated.The correct and logical approach, would be to get out right away and wait for a better chance to show until you get back in.Sounds very simple doesn't it - I wonder why so many people loose money in the markets !

Gobblygoo, I would very much like to start introducing you to the Science of Human Behaviour, but it would take pages and pages of writing, which I do not have time for, and which most I am sure would not pay any great attention to.All that I will say, is that if you do some research on famous business or sports people, you will come across a very common theme -that of self image and belief.I personally have no interest in the Academics, and I do not waste any time myself in reading or studying any material that does not help me to act in my own best interests. If you wanted to learn to become a consistent profitable futures trader - would you rather learn from a Floor Trader on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile exchange, or from some Academic that probably never even traded in his life. I know what I would do, and have done myself. Most people will never really understand this, but the key to success is right in front of you in that mirror - that is yourself. What I am saying is that I believe that any individual can change his/her current situation for the better( and this just doesn't have to be in trading, it can be for anything), but only if they are willing to put some time and effort in to doing what is required. The first major point that has to be addressed is the self image - for if a person is trying to do or achieve something(realistic of course) that is not a true reflection of how they actually see themselves, than their chance of succeeding is very slim. What most people don't realise is that you can change your self image by using visualisation techniques.

I am now going to be a little smart - not really, but it may seem that way to some people.If you think that some of my last posts were Gobblygoo, then this will attract some response.My advise for any serious individual who wants to really better themselves is to get the following videos and watch them 1) The Rugrats and 2) The Never Ending Story.
If after watching these movies you can see why I said to get them, then you will have no trouble whatsoever in changing your self image and any negative past experiences that will hinder your advancements.If not, then you have a good deal of study to do.

Funny how much of this is not what people expected to hear, that is how to buy low and sell high.There is plenty of website that cater for this type of individual, but none that I know of that explains what is really required to be successful - no matter what goals you set for yourself in life.

Regards,

DT


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## Tommy (17 Aug 2003)

*Re: Daytrading*

Psychology theory can be used to demonstrate that individuals have a chance of financial success in almost any sphere of investment of business, if they put their mind to it. It strikes me as odd that you choose to apply it to the practice of daytrading, generally recognised as one of the riskiest occupations known, and one which has caused many of its temporary practitioners to lose their shirts. No amount of theory will alter the fact that it seems to be about as risky as trying to earn a living from playing slot machines.


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## ClubMan (20 Aug 2003)

*Re: Daytrading*

Before anybody starts appealing to the scientific credentials of psychology how about a bit of devil's advocacy first...? 

In my humble (no sarcasm intended!) opinion
<!--EZCODE LIST START--><ul><li>there is absolutely no fail safe system or methodology _guaranteeing_ investment success whether it be based on day trading or long term investment</li><li>beware of anybody purporting to have such a system particularly if you are obliged to pay them to divulge the "secret"</li><li>a buy and hold long term strategy maximises the chances of earning returns and minimises the eroding effects of transaction costs</li><li>nobody should invest anything other than what they can afford to lose even if this is an absolute worst case scenario</li></ul><!--EZCODE LIST END-->


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## smurphy10 (20 Aug 2003)

*Trading systems*

I friend of mine worked as a futures trader in London for a number of years. 

He described a trading system, as trying to fill a glass of water that is constantly changing size, without spilling any of failing to fill it.

Every so often you think you get it right, but just as soon as you do, the market changes and a new factor needs to be added or taken away.

I believe in mechanical trading systems, but I am not buying what this punter is selling.


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## daltonr (25 Aug 2003)

*Re: Trading systems*

If you want a good read about Trading, try Nick Leeson's book, Rogue Trader.  Scary stuff.

I think my favourite bit was when he admitted that at one point he was eating 10 pounds (in weight) of Fruit Pastilles.
A DAY!!!!

-Rd


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## ninsaga (25 Aug 2003)

*Re: Trading systems*

..why? was he trying to increase the value in Rowntrees or something :rollin


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## Nick (26 Aug 2003)

*Daytrading on the Irish Stock Exchange*

Hi All !

    I really enjoy reading this discassions, just let me
    notice that 1 % stupid stump duty does not suit
    daytrading on the Irish Stock exchange, there is 
    suit to trade one time in a week, a mount or watever
    you like or buy and hold for long term.

    Kind regards

    Nick


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## piggy (26 Aug 2003)

*Re: Daytrading on the Irish Stock Exchange*

Unless you're trading with very large amounts of money, in which case, the stamp duty doesn't hurt you as much. Not that I'd know what that feels like!!!!


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## Nick (26 Aug 2003)

*to lose money*

Hi Piggy,

   It does not matter how much money do you trading 
   with, you have already lost 1 % of it.
   For example if you are trading with 1000 € you have
   already lost 10 €, but from 1000000 you have lost
   10000 €. It is up to you, but in the daytrading it is
   extreamly important thing .

   All the best

   Nick


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## piggy (26 Aug 2003)

*Re: to lose money*

Yes, you're right Nick. The point I was trying to make badly is that the government stamp duty and the charges that Irish Stockbrokers add on hurt you more with lower amounts of money if you are trying to day trade. On larger amounts of money it is easier to recoup this loss in a lesser amount of time.


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## Grizzly (5 Sep 2003)

*Remember you are the last to know...*

If you are making a profit you are not making a loss. The market is far to volatile to stay in for any length of time. My own view is to make a quick in and out and take your profit. Even if you only make €50 it will pay for a pint in Cafe Insane.  Most of the websites such as www.iii.co.uk  will let you view the daily trades in a particular share on a 15 minutes delayed time. They also show an intraday trading graph. If you have a look at the RNS news you can look back over the various trading statements/announcements/results you can also view the fundamentals of a company. While you can make money trading on rumour and sentiment or by trading around results or ex dividend dates you are far better trading on good fundamentals and good management. No one can predict a Sept 11th though.


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## Murt10 (11 Sep 2003)

*Re: Daytrading on the Irish Stock Exchange*

In addition to the 1% stamp duty the Irish Stock Exchange is too small to daytrade on. The size of the xompanies and the volume in most cases is too small and the spreads are too large.


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## Nick (11 Sep 2003)

*daytrading on the Irish Stock Exchange*

Of course, I am not happy with the ridiculous 1%
   stamp duty too, and that is not covinious for the   
   daytraiding,  but we have do nothing with this,
   however we can trade one time in a day or in a week.
   Irish shares are not volatile in compare to US/UK,
   but they are much predictable.

   Are there any opinions ?

   Thanks for any replies

    Nick


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## ClubMan (11 Sep 2003)

*Re: daytrading on the Irish Stock Exchange*

*but they are much predictable.*

I don't agree at all. If they were so predictable we'd all be millionaires!


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## piggy (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: daytrading on the Irish Stock Exchange*

I think Nick's point may be that Irish shares are more predicatble in comparison with say Nasdaq shares, which is quite true. Shares on the Nasdaq (& not necessarily the NYSE) fluctuate greatly.
This is the not the case with most shares on the ISEQ.

You'd only be a millionaire if you were regularly investing large amounts of money (sensibly) in Irish shares.

Piggy.


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## Nick (15 Sep 2003)

*Irish shares*

Thanks Piggy. That is what I meant. 
  Many shares on the Nasdaq Stock Market 
  are overvalue at the present and trading on it
  is dangerous without deep researches.At the same time
  Irish market is quite quiet and we can deeply find out
  any information about any companies.                        
  I have found the Ryanair's shares is 
  quite volatile for regulary trading ( not daytrading)
  and house builders' company are good potential
  for the rising until the house prices are so high.

  Thanks 

   Nick


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## ClubMan (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: Irish shares*

*I think Nick's point may be that Irish shares are more predicatble in comparison with say Nasdaq shares, which is quite true.*

No offence but can you point to some authoritative information on this so?

*I have found the Ryanair's shares is quite volatile for regulary trading*

I don't understand the significance of this particularly since _Ryanair_ trades on both the _ISE_ and _NASDAQ_.


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## piggy (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: Irish shares*

*"No offence but can you point to some authoritative information on this so?"*

I don't know about Nick. I can't provide you with hard facts on this...at least without doing some research, but the Nasdaq is a tech-heavy market and has always been the more volatile of the American markets. From reading books on the subject, listening to the guy who started the Investment Clubs in Ireland and from some relatives of mine (one in particular) who day trade and/or regularly trade, the Nasdaq is a lot more volatile than our own market. In the same vein, most traders view the NYSE as being more stable, investing generally for the longer term with these shares.

Piggy.


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## ClubMan (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: Irish shares*

OK - I accept that _NASDAQ_ for example may be more liquid than the _ISE_ but that doesn't necessarily make either more predictable than the other in my view. For example, some _ISE_ shares don't trade at all for days/weeks on end and one could argue that the lack of intermediate activity actually makes predicting the next trades of such shares more difficult than if they were more liquid. Either way, nobody can predict the future with any degree of accuracy so maybe it's all a moot point?


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## piggy (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: Irish shares*

That's a fair point Clubman. 

I don't know all that much about the _ISEQ_, bar what few shares I've invested in, but just on the point that some shares don't trade for long periods of time...that's quite true. One thing I have noticed about those shares...and I won't mention any particular companies, is that most of the Brokers, Davy's and Goodbody's in particular are pretty good at telling you that the share is going to move today/tomorrow. They usually stick some comment in their news and comment section about such and such being a good buy right before the share price goes up.
Obviously the above is anecdotal feedback at best...just something I've noticed.

Piggy.


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## ClubMan (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: Irish shares*

No matter how authoritatively they dress up their comments, brokers are no more able to predict the future than me or you or _Mystic Meg_! :\


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## piggy (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: Irish shares*

Absolutely, I totally agree. My point was, from a purely anecdotal point of view, that wherever I have seen them put in BUY advice for a certain share that has not traded in a long while, it usually moves that day or the next...generally in conjunction with some news concerning the company or the market.


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## ClubMan (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: Irish shares*

If this can be shown to be the case then the only explanations that I can come up with for this are:
<!--EZCODE LIST START--><ul><li>Illegal insider trading which obviously no reputable broker would engage in</li><li>Self fulfilling prophesies (brokers predict a fall or rise so the punters trade in such as way as to make this come true)</li><li>Pure luck/coincidence</li></ul><!--EZCODE LIST END-->


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## piggy (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: Irish shares*

Well, I think if it's any of the three it must be self-fulfilling prophecy. If a broker learns of some financial report coming out for a company which is forecast to be good...and they advise people to buy...then it would probably be classed as self-fulfilling prophecy. 
I don't think pure luck is involved, as I'm talking about shares that may not have traded for months and I doubt it's insider trading for the same reasons you've given.

I assume though that it's just as likely to be the broker providing it's customers with relevant financial information pertaining to a particular stock which they feel will prompt buyers in the market.


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## Nick (15 Sep 2003)

*Goodbody's forecasts*

Hi Piggy,

  You are right, Goodbody's suggestions to buy or sell
  have been made according to financial reports and
  that is nothing wrong. For example, if Ryanair gets
  pofit why there is not to be an advice to buy it?  
  Financial reports are the main piont to make advise
  to costemors buy, add or sell for Goodbody broker.

  With respect

  Nick


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## ClubMan (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: Goodbody's forecasts*

If such information is public then the fact that a broker makes a pronouncement one way or another on it is irrelevant since somebody will have seen the report and acted on it by the time that the broker makes such a pronouncement. This is simply the _Efficient Market Hypothesis_ at work. There is no magic here folks. Nobody can predict the future full stop.


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## piggy (15 Sep 2003)

*Re: Goodbody's forecasts*

No one is saying that brokers are predicting the future or that they're magicians Clubman...I was just passing on some _anecdotal_ points on the predictability and calmness of some shares on the ISEQ which are rarely traded.

Piggy.


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## Nick (16 Sep 2003)

*How to calculate the P/E-ratio*

Hi all,

   Could anyone explane me, please how to calculate
   the P/E-ratio and give me an example?

   Thanks for any help


   Nixk


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## piggy (16 Sep 2003)

*Re: How to calculate the P/E-ratio*

Hi Nick,

According to the 


*P/E Ratio (Price/Earnings Ratio) 
A stock analysis statistic in which the current price of a stock (today's last sale price) is divided by the reported actual (or sometimes projected, which would be forecast) earnings per share of the issuing firm; it is also called the "multiple".* 

Regards,

Piggy.


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## Nick (16 Sep 2003)

*P/E-ratio*

Thanks Piggy,

  I just wonder, for example at the end of a day
  the price is real amount, the quantity of shares is
  the real amount, but for what the period is taken 
  profit ( for the yaer, Q or month ) ?

  Nick


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## ClubMan (16 Sep 2003)

*Re: P/E-ratio*

The "profit" figure is the last published dividend or earnings per share figure. For most companies this will be a quarterly figure - i.e. it could be a maximum of three months out of date. Does this answer you question?


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## Nick (16 Sep 2003)

*P/E-ratio*

Yes, however dividends and profit are complitly
    different thigs. I have got it that P/E-ratio has beehg
    counted as price at the day divided on the ratio
    profit for Q on quantity shares.
    For example the E/P-ratio for Ryanair's shraes is
    6.42/  (247.6 mln/748.5mln)=19.45

    6.42 - current price €
    247.6 mln - profit for queter 2
    748.5 mln - quantity of sares.

    Thanks for helping

     Nick


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## evoke (15 Mar 2004)

*All the added charges*

How can you be a full time daytrader will all the extra charges that the government and stockbrokers have?Every time you trade stock you have to pay a good bit of money ?

i am in college and look at the ISE everyday.i have bought shares and made money on them but the cost of buying them was alot.

what stockbroking firm is the best to trade with??Cost wise???

if i  could find a company that was cheap enough i would trade all day.


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## <A HREF=http://pub145.ezboard.com/baskaboutmoney.s (15 Mar 2004)

*Re: P/E-ratio*

In my view daytrading is a good way to lose money - through charges as you mention as well as through market volatility. It puzzles me why a full time (?) student would want to daytrade and how they would have the necessary resources...

How and ever, these links might be of interest to you:

www.askaboutmoney.com/clu...OCKBROKING


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## EAMONN66 (17 Mar 2004)

*Re: to lose money*

i always wondered about the futures thing. if you buy a contract for a truckload of  bananas, sheeps brains or whatever and cant or dont sell them in time, does it all arrive on your doorstep one day?


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## Statler (17 Mar 2004)

*Re: to lose money*

I'm not sure about sheep brains, but to take the example of metal trading and a futures contract traded on the London Metals Exchange  most (all?) futures contracts are settled without the physical delivery of the metal that is the subject of the contract. However, the metal must be available in an LME warehouse for physical delivery should the parties agree.
It is not a question of the buyer selling the metal on, as contracts are usually settled financially and futures, and other trades on the LME, are used to hedge exposure to comodities markets rather than to buy supplies. 
To use an example of Company X, which requires aluminium to manufacture its product. Company X has suppliers of aluminium and will need 100 lots in 6 months time but wants to protect against price increases during the period. Company X enters a trade on the LME for 100 lots of aluminium at a price of £110. In 6 months time Company X buys the 100 lots required from their supplier.
If the market price has increased to £120 they pay £120, but in settlement of the futures contract they receive £10 - the cost to company X was £110 (plus the cost of the futures contract).
If the market price has fallen to £100 they pay £100, but in settlement of the futures contract they pay £10 - again the cost was £110 (plus the cost of the future).
The option of physical delivery remains, but it is rarely, if ever, exercised.


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## evoke (19 Mar 2004)

*cool*

does ireland have an metal exchange place or are we too small of country to do that


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## Statler (19 Mar 2004)

*Re: to lose money*



> does ireland have an metal exchange place


No, Ireland does not.


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