# Discussion of Roadmap for reopening Irish society and business



## odyssey06 (1 May 2020)

Opening a thread for discussion of the the Roadmap for reopening Irish society and business.

I found this significant from Phase 3, due to start 29th June:
* open non-essential retail outlets with *street level entrance and exit *

This suggests to me a concern about stairwells and lifts.





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						Roadmap for reopening society and business
					

Roadmap for reopening society and business and updates to public health guidelines.




					www.gov.ie


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## llgon (1 May 2020)

It looks like 20th July is the target date to start a short holiday season. If all goes according to plan travel restrictions within the country would be lifted and tourist accommodation would start to open. It's also the target date for reopening of hairdressers, there'll be great demand for their services when they re-open.

It's clear that if there's any concerns about an increase in infection the plan will be paused or stepped back to earlier phases.  I wonder if there is potential for accelerating it if infection levels are low or if other countries are successful in implementing more radical plans.


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## Baby boomer (1 May 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> I found this significant from Phase 3, due to start 29th June:
> * open non-essential retail outlets with *street level entrance and exit *
> 
> This suggests to me a concern about stairwells and lifts.



According to the full roadmap document, that means outlets not in an enclosed shopping centre.


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## mathepac (2 May 2020)

I don't see any specific mention of Government Services - PassPort Offices, NDLS / NCTS Centres, LA Offices, etc. Is Leo intending to leave them closed?


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## Wahaay (2 May 2020)

A tiny chunk of light at the end of a very long tunnel.
Pubs to re-open on August 10th provided there is no second wave ...


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## Duke of Marmalade (2 May 2020)

I think the international situation will be relevant.  If mainland Europe opens up far sooner we will be under huge pressure to follow suite and vice versa if they are much slower. 
I read somewhere that in some phase the travel limit would be 200km.  Now that would be really silly.  You can go to Limerick (from Dublin) but not Tralee.
Seems no chance of getting a holiday abroad this year.  I suppose in terms of Balance of Payments tourism cuts both ways for Ireland.


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## Marion (2 May 2020)

llgon said:


> It looks like 20th July ... the target date for reopening of hairdressers, there'll be great demand for their services when they re-open.



I booked my appointment this morning at 9:30! Salon phone not working, but I happened to have the stylists private phone number. I booked in for the works! Can’t wait! 

It doesn’t mention nail bars here, unless I’ve missed it. 

Marion


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## odyssey06 (2 May 2020)

Note that health minister Simon Harris has said foreign travel for the Irish public is looking “highly unlikely this year”... 
Even if the travel advice did change and people could book holidays abroad, they would still have to self isolate for two weeks upon their return, he said.  








						'It's not looking good': Foreign travel looking 'highly unlikely' this year, says Harris
					

Government is to consider making it mandatory to self-isolate if you arrive in Ireland from abroad.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## Merowig (2 May 2020)

I still plan for holidays abroad and I do not mind self isolation afterwards.


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## mathepac (2 May 2020)

Marion said:


> I booked my appointment this morning at 9:30! Salon phone not working, but I happened to have the stylists private phone number. I booked in for the works! Can’t wait!


Photos or it didn't happen!!


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## joe sod (2 May 2020)

I see Portugal is in more or less the same situation as Ireland similar number of deaths ,confirmed casse and population, it is also like us beside a highly populous and affected country like Spain. Yet it is opening everything up much faster than Ireland, hairdresses, bars and restaurants are starting to open in may. Are we being too conservative surely we need to speed everything up a bit.









						Portugal announces gradual lockdown exit plan
					

Portugal's government has announced a plan for a gradual exit from coronavirus lockdown, starting on Monday with the opening of some shops and businesses.




					www.rte.ie


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## pjq (3 May 2020)

IMO  Roadmap won't be implemented as is because;
1. the EU countries opening up faster will succeed, and we will follow their example faster and faster, or
2. The others will get themselves into Covid trouble and we'll have to postpone and postpone .....
It's good that we are not 1st to open as we have one of the worst Health Set-ups in EU, that the OECD says only Luxembourg spends more per head.
PS , they could have done more for over 70s, ie. drive to Golf even if 5km+ , and open hairdressers a week or two early for 70+ ( I'm not a grey-golfer)


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## michaelm (3 May 2020)

pjq said:


> It's good that we are not 1st to open as we have one of the worst Health Set-ups in EU,


Perhaps the silver lining in our ICU capacity and testing shortcomings necessitating a lockdown extension is that there is at least the possibility that we will observe and learn what works for other countries.


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## Duke of Marmalade (3 May 2020)

Article in today's _Sindo _which quotes a Prof Moynihan as pointing out that social distancing is by far the most effective measure in containing this virus.  And that kinda makes sense to me though I have this amateur hunch that face masks reinforce the effectiveness of social distancing.

In an extensive survey of many different countries' approach it is shown that they all are achieving more or less the same level of success.  They all require social distancing but the methods range widely from Sweden's voluntary approach to various forms of lockdown.  We are in the lockdown category.  But lockdown is only the means to an end - the end is social distancing.

In that respect the roadmap doesn't make much sense to me.  The most unconvincing requirement is the restriction on travel.  Travelling in a car for 200km poses no risk whatsoever _per se_.  But it seems Nphet believes that restricting travel will contribute to reducing social distancing i.e. put manners on us.

In a few weeks time construction sites, DIY stores and repair shops will be allowed to open provided they have social distancing.  Why do we have to wait?  And so on. By the end of the road map many activities will be nominally open but social distancing is here to stay.

Sweden have it right - social distancing possibly with mask should be the only imposition from central government.  All other restrictions are in place towards that end because Nphet do not trust the populace to apply social distancing without these measures.


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## joe sod (3 May 2020)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> In a few weeks time construction sites, DIY stores and repair shops will be allowed to open provided they have social distancing. Why do we have to wait?



yes exactly, I think the costs and benefits of every extra week of this, with zero revenue and central government paying Covid payments etc has to be much higher up the priority list. For now they are able to easily borrow the money from the bond markets, but what about next year ??, surely we need to keep alot of powder dry to get the economy back on its feet rather than spending it all now on things that probably have very little benefit in stopping the infection.


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## michaelm (3 May 2020)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Why do we have to wait?


The R nought is below 1 and ICU occupancy is falling so it seems the likely reason we have to wait is that the testing regime isn't yet in place, for the early detection of flareups . . to prevent a leap in cases which would result in the paltry number of available ICU beds filling up in a heartbeat.


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## Duke of Marmalade (4 May 2020)

If NPHET were the permanent government we would;
have a ban on alcohol sales
a ban on cigarettes
a ban on sugary drinks and sweets
rationing of our daily intake of carbohydrates, proteins etc.
etc. etc.
This is not a criticism of NPHET, it is precisely what we would expect if we put a group of medical experts in charge.
But Gocernment needs to take a much broader and proportionate perspective.


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## Monbretia (4 May 2020)

There will be some traffic on the roads on 21st July, they'd nearly want to stagger that in some way.  Think I'll leave at 2 in the morning for my trip


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## Leper (5 May 2020)

The Re-Opening has already begun. Two days ago (Sunday of Bank Holiday) I had my usual walk, but at 3.00pm (not my usual 10.00am). I can safely say I saw more cars flying past than even on a normal Sunday this time last year. Certainly, there were people visiting houses, converging on beauty spots in numbers etc. I even came on a back-up of traffic on a roundabout with a turn off for public walks/beaches. Not only were these places not within 2kms but not even within 5kms. We've been so conscious of the emergency up to then and showed the rest of europe how people should behave in such a pandemic. Suddenly, that's all stopping now. 

Covid-19 Cuid-a-Dó is about to start - no doubt about it, if we continue the way we are now.


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## odyssey06 (5 May 2020)

Leper said:


> The Re-Opening has already begun. Two days ago (Sunday of Bank Holiday) I had my usual walk, but at 3.00pm (not my usual 10.00am). I can safely say I saw more cars flying past than even on a normal Sunday this time last year. Certainly, there were people visiting houses, converging on beauty spots in numbers etc. I even came on a back-up of traffic on a roundabout with a turn off for public walks/beaches. Not only were these places not within 2kms but not even within 5kms. We've been so conscious of the emergency up to then and showed the rest of europe how people should behave in such a pandemic. Suddenly, that's all stopping now.



Many people seem to have already jumped to Phase 2.


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## Eureka101 (5 May 2020)

Is it to be expected with the disconnect between our senior politicians and the public?I've been very disappointed with Leo's leadership and visibility since the lockdown started. Leo decided to quote Winston Churchill in his initial tv address yet he has failed to appear on tv regularly to lead, encourage and bring the nation with him throughout this 7 week period. 
The UK senior politicians and health ministers are on the BBC daily and even Boris Johnson was back straight away after being in intensive care.! Disingenuous to quote Churchill and then fail to lead and galvanise the nation, instead allowing hearsay and social media to speculate allowing some of the population to decide on their own interpretations of the lockdown stipulations.


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## Purple (5 May 2020)

Simon Harris is constantly communicating with the public. He's the Minister for Health and this is a health issue. 
So far, in my opinion, he's been excellent.


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## Rosjohn (5 May 2020)

I'd prefer to have Leo, Harris etc in charge than the Johnsons of this world.
Actions more important than used car salesman waffle.


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## Purple (5 May 2020)

Rosjohn said:


> I'd prefer to have Leo, Harris etc in charge than the Johnsons of this world.
> Actions more important than used car salesman waffle.


Yep, plus the UK Government has been telling lies about their death rates from the start. 
Our government has, for the most part, done an excellent job.


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## Wahaay (5 May 2020)

Rosjohn said:


> I'd prefer to have Leo, Harris etc in charge than the Johnsons of this world.
> Actions more important than used car salesman waffle.



Not a view shared by the electorates in the recent UK and Irish general elections ...


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## Purple (5 May 2020)

Wahaay said:


> Not a view shared by the electorates in the recent UK and Irish general elections ...


I don't remember Covid19 being an issue in the recent election here. 
I do remember the Child Killers getting 24% of the vote but the two main centre-left parties, FF & FG,  getting nearly twice that. 
Was there a more recent election that I missed?


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## Wahaay (5 May 2020)

Purple said:


> I don't remember Covid19 being an issue in the recent election here.
> I do remember the Child Killers getting 24% of the vote but the two main centre-left parties, FF & FG,  getting nearly twice that.
> Was there a more recent election that I missed?



This is probably not the thread to indulge in this as Brendan will no doubt say when he deletes these posts but Varadkar and Johnson are both enoying good approval ratings over their handling of Covid-19.
It's a familiar phenomenon in times of national crisis.
Varadkar's is from a  much lower base than that of Johnson whose popularity appears undimmed from the December election. All pollsters report that the Conservative Party enjoys historic – even record-breaking – levels of support.
I always think it wise to remember that social media is rarely a true reflection of the mood of a nation.
But bringing this thread back to the roadmap I get the impresssion - and it is no more than that - that both Ireland and the UK broadly support it.Boris has yet to unveil the UK's but I expect it to be similar to Ireland's with scientific and medical experts' advice outweighing that of the economists concerned about the effects of a prolonged lockdown.I'm not sure there is quite the urgent clamour to get back to normal life that is sometimes portrayed in the media.
Without a vaccine there is still a great deal of fear and apprehension.


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## Purple (5 May 2020)

Wahaay said:


> This is probably not the thread to indulge in this as Brendan will no doubt say when he deletes these posts but Varadkar and Johnson are both enoying good approval ratings over their handling of Covid-19.
> It's a familiar phenomenon in times of national crisis.
> Varadkar's is from a  much lower base than that of Johnson whose popularity appears undimmed from the December election. All pollsters report that the Conservative Party enjoys historic – even record-breaking – levels of support.
> I always think it wise to remember that social media is rarely a true reflection of the mood of a nation.
> ...


Without a vaccine, without 5 or 6 billion vaccines and the ability to administer them, then Covid19 is, and will remain, part of our lives for the foreseeable future. 
Given all that we have to find a way to live with it while engaging in normal human activity. The lockdown should be treated as a temporary measure which gives us space and time to create medical and laboratory capacity to treat and test for the virus Once that capacity is there then restrictions should be unwound at a rate which keeps the symptomatic infection rate at or below the capacity of the health service to treat it. 

The economy is made up of people. Financial security, personal dignity and mental health are all intertwined in what it is to work for a living. It is also the source of funding for the health service and so while your health is your wealth is it also very much the case that as a societal level your wealth is your health.

This is the new norm, our new reality. Solid data on who is actually dying from the disease would help. Given that most people who have it are not tested as they are asymptomatic and of the 20% who are symptomatic many are still not tested it is reasonable to say that the real mortality rate is probably well below 1%. Figures from Germany suggest it's below 0.4%. Let's say it is 0.5%. Of that 0.5% the vast majority are elderly and have underlying conditions. Therefore the mortality rate for someone in good health who is under 70 must be significantly lower than one in two thousand. 

So, continue to cocoon high risk groups and let the rest of the world get back to normal in a controlled way.
From what I can see that seems to be the plan. We probably need to do it a bit faster but the heros in the HSE can't get their act together so we have to slow things down.


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## odyssey06 (5 May 2020)

Not quite sure on the mechanics of this, but the 4 Dublin councils have earmarked 1.30pm-3.30pm as 'cocooner only' times for parks:








						Dublin councils earmark 1.30pm-3.30pm as 'cocooner only' times for parks
					

The designated time kicks in tomorrow.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## Wahaay (5 May 2020)

Purple said:


> Without a vaccine, without 5 or 6 billion vaccines and the ability to administer them, then Covid19 is, and will remain, part of our lives for the foreseeable future.
> Given all that we have to find a way to live with it while engaging in normal human activity. The lockdown should be treated as a temporary measure which gives us space and time to create medical and laboratory capacity to treat and test for the virus Once that capacity is there then restrictions should be unwound at a rate which keeps the symptomatic infection rate at or below the capacity of the health service to treat it.
> 
> The economy is made up of people. Financial security, personal dignity and mental health are all intertwined in what it is to work for a living. It is also the source of funding for the health service and so while your health is your wealth is it also very much the case that as a societal level your wealth is your health.
> ...



Indeed.
The trouble is governments are only learning about the true nature of Covid-19 at the same time as the rest of us so some mistakes will be made along the way.
It's amazing how many new internet epidemiologists and statisicians have all recently graduated from the University of Hindsight ...


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## Rosjohn (5 May 2020)

Ahhhh....if only those Scientists and Governments would listen to Karen from facebook.....


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## Purple (5 May 2020)

Wahaay said:


> The trouble is governments are only learning about the true nature of Covid-19 at the same time as the rest of us so some mistakes will be made along the way.


Yep, which is one of the reasons I think they are doing a good job.


Wahaay said:


> It's amazing how many new internet epidemiologists and statisicians have all recently graduated from the University of Hindsight ...


Indeed.


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## Purple (5 May 2020)

Rosjohn said:


> Ahhhh....if only those Scientists and Governments would listen to Karen from facebook.....


The really scary bit is Karen from Facebook is probably a better bet than the President of the United States of America.


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## Duke of Marmalade (5 May 2020)

Not really about the Roadmap but no other suitable heading.
The putative program for government is ruling out increases in income tax and USC.  I trust this is just name calling.

There is a very good case for a Covid tax not just because of unprecedented collateral public expenditure but because those that have escaped the economic fall out will have had enforced windfall increases in their savings rate.

Not going to pubs. Not going to restaurants.  Paying much less on fuel and motor repairs.  Not buying new clothes.  Not going to shows.  Not going to sporting events.  Not getting our hair cut.  Not going on foreign holidays, indeed not going on domestic holidays, rebates of private health insurance, rebates of motor insurance and I am sure there are many other savings.

The government should flag that there will be a Covid tax along these lines as part of the Roadmap to prevent people blowing these enforced savings as soon as they get the chance.

There's much talk of solidarity.  Wouldn't it be a wonderful world if the Covid tax could be self assessed?


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## Wahaay (5 May 2020)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Not really about the Roadmap but no other suitable heading.
> The putative program for government is ruling out increases in income tax and USC.  I trust this is just name calling.
> 
> There is a very good case for a Covid tax not just because of unprecedented collateral public expenditure but because those that have escaped the economic fall out will have had enforced windfall increases in their savings rate.
> ...




Of course they have already paid tax on the money they have been able to save.
But additional taxes there will be as well as cuts to services.There is no other way of paying for the enormous amount of money being borrowed to pay for half of the workforce being on benefits.
It will be across the board too and not just on those who have savings.


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## joe sod (5 May 2020)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> There is a very good case for a Covid tax not just because of unprecedented collateral public expenditure but because those that have escaped the economic fall out will have had enforced windfall increases in their savings rate.



what will be the long term consequences ? the fact that we are borrowing so much money now means we wont be able to do it in the future to fund the pension deficits coming down the line. If they increase taxes to pay for Covid, will it not just make the welfare system even more attractive especially as many more people have now got a taste for it.


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## Purple (6 May 2020)

We need to encurage spending after the restrictions are lifted. Increasing taxes is not the way to do that.


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## Leper (6 May 2020)

Purple said:


> We need to encurage spending after the restrictions are lifted. Increasing taxes is not the way to do that.


Lovely sentiment and I agree entirely. But, if Paddy can get a pair of trainers €5.00 cheaper online than in Douglas  Shopping Centre he'll opt to save his fiver. I'm remembering the days of Jetmagic (an excellent low fare airline) competing with Ryanair at Cork Airport on the London and Alicante routes. If Ryanair were a fiver cheaper the public opted for it instead of Jetmagic which had an outstanding customer service and far better comfort. Alas! Jetmagic has folded and Ryanair can now charge what they like.

I'm sorry to say that Irish Nationalism will only continue with the Celtic jersey occupants of the bar stool screaming insults at a television screen against Rangers after Covid-19.


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## Purple (6 May 2020)

Money costs governments less than nothing to borrow. We need to borrow to restart the private sector small business economy. It employs the most people and is a critical part of the economy. Tax increases just go to pay rises for State employees and while many of them do very important jobs none of them directly create wealth.
If there was a tax on State employees who have retained their full wage and pensioners with a pension above a certain value which was used to subsidise reductions in rates and other forms of tax on small businesses then I'd be all for it but the people who really run the country always feather their own nest first.


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## Leper (6 May 2020)

Purple said:


> Money costs governments less than nothing to borrow. We need to borrow to restart the private sector small business economy. It employs the most people and is a critical part of the economy. Tax increases just go to pay rises for State employees and while many of them do very important jobs none of them directly create wealth.
> If there was a tax on State employees who have retained their full wage and pensioners with a pension above a certain value which was used to subsidise reductions in rates and other forms of tax on small businesses then I'd be all for it but the people who really run the country always feather their own nest first.


Good Man Purple! You started well and then descended into your usual Public/Civil Service bashing. These are times when we all need to pull together. Remember unlike you,  Covid-19 doesn't differentiate whether you are private or public sector. And a loaf of bread costs the same for everybody too.


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## Purple (6 May 2020)

Leper said:


> Good Man Purple! You started well and then descended into your usual Public/Civil Service bashing. These are times when we all need to pull together. Remember unlike you,  Covid-19 doesn't differentiate whether you are private or public sector. And a loaf of bread costs the same for everybody too.


You need to stop looking at this from an ideologically defensive perspective. If we are talking about restarting the economy them this is about economics. This is about the people who create wealth. Primarily that's the internationally traded goods and services sector. After that it's the domestic SME sector. The State and State employees don't create any wealth. Much of their activity is critical to the creation of wealth but they don't directly create it. Therefore taking money from the wealth creating sectors and giving it to the non wealth creating sectors is a bad idea if the objective is to restart the domestic economy.


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## Sunny (6 May 2020)

We won't be able to tax or borrow ourselves out of this without huge medium/long term consequences. Not in the normal manner anyway. Borrowing 10-15 year money even if yields are less than 0 is just burdening the country and future population with even higher debt. And it will mean that the next crisis could be much room with zero fiscal or borrowing capacity. The good news is that we are not alone on this. This will end up being a test for the whole of the EU. Let's see how they respond and how much of the 'we are all in this together' mantra is actually right. They will need to develop a mechanism for Corona bonds/Euro bonds that can be issued for extremely long maturities at extremely low yields. Countries like Netherlands and Germany will need to get off their high horse and Countries like Italy, Spain and even Ireland will have to make moves towards even greater budget scrutiny and restriction. 

Otherwise countries in the Eurozone are going to have debt profiles that will make it impossible for the ECB to stop bond purchases.


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## Wahaay (6 May 2020)

Purple said:


> You need to stop looking at this from an ideologically defensive perspective. If we are talking about restarting the economy them this is about economics. This is about the people who create wealth. Primarily that's the internationally traded goods and services sector. After that it's the domestic SME sector. The State and State employees don't create any wealth. Much of their activity is critical to the creation of wealth but they don't directly create it. Therefore taking money from the wealth creating sectors and giving it to the non wealth creating sectors is a bad idea if the objective is to restart the domestic economy.



Occasionally this poster does talk some sense ...
My SME was closed down without warning, all my staff have been laid off and I haven't earned a cent in seven weeks despite normal monthly outgoings and only this morning I received more uncessary bureaucratic nonsense from a state employee working from home on full salary that is going to cost me more money to comply with in order to re-open my business at some unspecified date in the future.


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## Sophrosyne (6 May 2020)

Wahaay said:


> My SME was closed down without warning, all my staff have been laid off



Just as a matter of interest Wahaay, what would it take to reopen your business and would how you operate have to be modified?


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## Wahaay (6 May 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> Just as a matter of interest Wahaay, what would it take to reopen your business and would how you operate have to be modified?


I'll be able to tell you that in August.
Hopefully.


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## joe sod (9 May 2020)

just wondering why we are so late in opening hair dressers and barbers, every country realises that this is an important service especially for women and therefore have opened these up at the start rather than the end of the process. Surely a huge black economy hair dressing service is now on the cards


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## Eureka101 (12 May 2020)

The idea of ‘social bubbles’ is a very good one. Accept it can’t be policed but as we’re seeing with this crisis there are no certainties and a lot will come down to trust and social responsibility.
If this could be introduced from 18th May ( without distance restrictions ) or soon after it could go a long way to lifting the spirits of the nation as we work through the currently proposed roadmap.


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## What the (15 May 2020)

I think its better to stay shut too long than it is to take a chance opening up early. We can watch other countries succeed or fail and make judgements using their results to help us make  decisions. Its ok to be worse off for now as you might get over that but dead is permanent and that leaves scars for those left behind. My company office will remain closed until its free movement once more so I am lucky in that regard but I do think everyone who can work from home should do so until this is permanently controlled. Hotels pubs resturaunts etc.. obviously have another legitimate view but as I said dead is permanent.


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## odyssey06 (15 May 2020)

Cabinet set to approve easing of restrictions, but *homeware stores not permitted to open*:
_Phase One permits the reopening of hardware stores, garden centres, farmers’ markets, bicycle shops and motor garages, electrical and IT stores, as well as opticians. While homeware stores was on the list of shops that could reopen, it is understood that they will not be able resume business on Monday._









						Cabinet set to approve easing of restrictions, but homeware stores not permitted to open
					

Hardware stores, garden centres, farmers’ markets, bicycle shops and garages are due to open Monday.




					www.thejournal.ie


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