# Calling all Lotto fans!



## DrMoriarty (15 Mar 2007)

If you're one of those people who always enter the same numbers, try [broken link removed] and see how 'lucky' they really are...! 

Before anyone asks — if I'd played 'my' numbers in one panel every lottery draw since 2003, I'd have spent €1,348 and won €73.

What a rip-off!


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## fobs (15 Mar 2007)

If I had played mine would have spent 1,348 and won just 38!


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## pinkyBear (15 Mar 2007)

What ever about making a loss, how would you feel if you had numbers that you do very often and missed a few weeks (holidays etc) and found that you could have won a few million


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## Gordanus (15 Mar 2007)

If I had played my numbers in one panel every lottery draw since 2003, I would have spent €1,348 and won at least €5

I think that makes me the winner here!


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## DrMoriarty (15 Mar 2007)

_Whatever _your numbers, your chances of winning the Lotto are zero (correct to six decimal places).


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## dodo (15 Mar 2007)

I know a lady from Limerick who played 4 euro on euro millions and won over 115 million, the key to the lotto is to pick the winning numbers not that easy I know but someone has to win,


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## ajapale (15 Mar 2007)

If you had played these numbers in one panel every lottery draw since 2003, you would have spent *€1,348* and won at least *€4*.

Is this the worst return?

45	37	36	10	6    39


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## jhegarty (16 Mar 2007)

ajapale said:


> If you had played these numbers in one panel every lottery draw since 2003, you would have spent *€1,348* and won at least *€4*.
> 
> Is this the worst return?
> 
> 45    37    36    10    6    39




the lotto is a tax on people who are bad at math....


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## shootingstar (22 Mar 2007)

have the lotto guru`s released any stats that show more "quick picks" have won or "set no`s" every week or just people who randomly select "different numbers" every week win??? 

I played the lotto maybe 3-4 times ever and won 48 yoyo`s


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## Guest127 (22 Mar 2007)

I would have won exactly €100. how odd is that? or more correctly lost over €1200.


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## mell61 (22 Mar 2007)

after depressing myself with my abysmal luck I ran teh 2 x lotto predictor number on the right of the screen.... If I though my luck was abysmal (Eu127 won, tooo much lost) on my personal number, their prediction would have won me exactly Eu8!


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## SOM42 (23 Mar 2007)

jhegarty said:


> the lotto is a tax on people who are bad at math....


 
On a similar vein I heard it was a tax on idiosy!  Ross O'Carroll Kelly contends that it is a tax on the dole!


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## Brianp (27 Mar 2007)

If you had played these numbers, 3, 44, 23,11, 31, 43  in one panel every lottery draw since 2003, you would have spent *€1,360* and won at least *€0*.

A potential loss of 
€1,360

i think that takes the cake!!


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## gipimann (27 Mar 2007)

Brianp, would your winnings of at least €0 be partially due to the fact that you couldn't have played 43 or 44 until October 2006 (when 43, 44 and 45 were added to the list)?!


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## Brianp (27 Mar 2007)

gipimann said:


> Brianp, would your winnings of at least €0 be partially due to the fact that you couldn't have played 43 or 44 until October 2006 (when 43, 44 and 45 were added to the list)?!


 
cheers thanks, back into lotto mode again


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## Ravima (27 Mar 2007)

Be positive!!!!!!!!

Has anyone the time to work out the most commonly picked numbers?


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## Gordanus (27 Mar 2007)

Ravima said:


> Has anyone the time to work out the most commonly picked numbers?



just because they were picked most often in the past doesn't mean that they'll ever come up again......each number has a one in 45 (? haven't done it for ages) chance of coming up;   so multiply 45 X 45 X 45 etc six times and your chance of winning in one in ...well I don't know, my calculator ran out of space!


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## gipimann (27 Mar 2007)

Ravima said:


> Has anyone the time to work out the most commonly picked numbers?


 
Ravima, the lotto have done it for us!  Check out their website www.lotto.ie and on the lotto draw statistics page you'll find all the statistics you'll ever need.....except what numbers will be drawn tomorrow....


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## car (28 Mar 2007)

if you have a few quid and a bit of bottle, find out what number has taken the most amount of time to come out, put 1e on it coming out in the next draw, (does the lotto still let you do that?) If it doesnt come out, next draw, put 2e on etc.    I think we did this in work one day a few years ago and we found the longest was something like 17 draws before a number came out (might be longer now with extra numbers).  Now thats a lot of doubling up but say you only started on draw 10, 7 draws later youre quids in.  Now go on to the next number which again isnt starting on week 1, anyway, work it out, I would, but I have to go and make my billyroll sandwiches for tomorrow, its so easy to get rich quick in this country..


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## ClubMan (28 Mar 2007)

car said:


> if you have a few quid and a bit of bottle, find out what number has taken the most amount of time to come out, put 1e on it coming out in the next draw


Pointless. The occurrence or not of a particular number or set of numbers in past draws has absolutely no bearing on its occurrence or not in subsequent draws. _Markov _or something like that...


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## car (28 Mar 2007)

> Pointless. The occurrence or not of a particular number or set of numbers in past draws has absolutely no bearing on its occurrence or not in subsequent draws. _Markov _or something like that...



Fully aware of  the doctrine of "Past performance is not an indicator..."  but you then have to apply the same rule to any investment.  So would that mean all investments are ultimately pointless?   
There has never been a number that has not come out after x amount of draws, yes, x is unknown, but historically x does exist.   
I dont have the bottle or cash to go through with it but I dont see how it wouldnt work if you had a large enough bankroll and a bookie willing to take the bet if the wager got large enough (at odds of 6/1).


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## ClubMan (28 Mar 2007)

car said:


> Fully aware of  the doctrine of "Past performance is not an indicator..."  but you then have to apply the same rule to any investment.  So would that mean all investments are ultimately pointless?


Two points (a) a Lotto ticket is not an "investment" and (b) real asset investments are not subject to the same statistical behaviour as lotteries.


> There has never been a number that has not come out after x amount of draws, yes, x is unknown, but historically x does exist.
> I dont have the bottle or cash to go through with it but I dont see how it wouldnt work if you had a large enough bankroll and a bookie willing to take the bet if the wager got large enough (at odds of 6/1).


 It's pointless gambling on the basis that certain numbers have or have not come out at some point in the past. Each draw is totally independent of all others so the occurrence or not of specific numbers in past draws has *absolutely no bearing *on their occurrence or not in future draws.


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## Gordanus (28 Mar 2007)

car said:


> if you have a few quid and a bit of bottle, find out what number has taken the most amount of time to come out, put 1e on it coming out in the next draw, (does the lotto still let you do that?) If it doesnt come out, next draw, put 2e on etc.



A more fruitful way of getting rich, would be:
Week 1:  save E 1
Week 2:  save E2
Week 3:  save E4
Week 5:  save E8
Week 6:  save E16

just keep doubling the amount you put into your piggy bank.  You'll be amazed at how your wealth will grow.


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## car (28 Mar 2007)

> Two points (a) a Lotto ticket is not an "investment"



But youre not buying a lottery ticket, youre putting money on the fact a certain number will come out eventually, which its statistically proven, will.   When it does, you get a return on your money, is this not an investment?


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## june (1 Apr 2007)

I remember hearing a lotto official on radio a few years back ( john creedon show)on set numbers vs quick pick. Same chance of winning. Also don't think that certain numbers may not have come up for a while and should come up soon. As they test the lotto machines , those numbers are not recorded in the statistics.....


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## ClubMan (2 Apr 2007)

car said:


> youre putting money on the fact a certain number will come out eventually, which its statistically proven, will.


This is incorrect. There is nothing to prove that any number will ever come out.


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## Purple (2 Apr 2007)

ClubMan said:


> This is incorrect. There is nothing to prove that any number will ever come out.



Prove it


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## ClubMan (2 Apr 2007)

Obviously impossible to prove a negative...


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## car (2 Apr 2007)

> This is incorrect. There is nothing to prove that any number will ever come out.


Probability and variance.

Toss a coin. You have an evens (1/1) chance it will be heads or tails, but yet theres nothing to prove it will ever be heads _or_ tails.  Im not saying one side will come out in a given toss, but I am saying it will come out at some stage. Probability. 

Toss a coin 1000 times you wont get an exact 500:500 split heads:tails but both sides do come out.   Variance.

 Keep betting on one side, stick to it, double your stake each time it doesnt come out.

If you go back over the lotto [broken link removed] on the lotto home page you can see the percentages any ball has come out in the draws, the average is about 15-16%.  So every 10 draws each ball should come out 1.5 times or roughly  7.5/1.     And as theres 6 balls from 45 in each draw 45/6 = 7.5/1,  the balls do come out on average probably about as much as they should give or take a little variance (max is 20% min is 11%).   

 Keep betting on one number, stick to it, double your stake each time it doesnt come out.


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## diarmuidc (2 Apr 2007)

car said:


> Keep betting on one number, stick to it, double your stake each time it doesnt come out.


The problem is that eventually you will get a losing streak long enough to bankrupt yourself before the streak ends.

Got involved in an argument with a friend who believed in the double up (or triple or whatever) method, to win at roulette. I even wrote a perl script to try and prove that you will always lose (unless you have infinite money) but I think in his heart he never believed me  That's when I realised that owning a casino/bookmakers/lotto system is the one way to guaranteed money. Pity the govn't doesn't let me.


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## car (2 Apr 2007)

> The problem is that eventually you will get a losing streak long enough to bankrupt yourself before the streak ends.


You can test this. With a bit of work, you can copy and paste all previous numbers from lotto site into an excel spreadsheet.  some filters and functions, then pick any date over the last 10 years.  go to that date in the spreadsheet, work back from that date and work out which number has taken the longest to come out, start with that number.  Lets say the number 23 hasnt come out in 10 weeks.   If you found the longest any number ever took to come out was 20 weeks, if it went the longest ever, you got another 10 weeks to go.
would you go 10 weeks?  your stake would be up to 512e at that stage.  any longer and youd have to rethink strategy whereby youre not prepared to keep going at doubling the stake but you could stay at 512 for all draws until it did come out.   but even at that youve got another 4 draws to go before you'd start to lose money, and even then thats only if it went the longest ever.  Soon as it does come out, on to the next longest number.  As above, balls and bankroll.
House cant be beaten at roulette.  AFAIR, odds of winning are 36/1, house offers 35/1.  You might beat the table, but you cant beat the house.  Same with the lotto, bookie offers 6/1 for a single number where odds are 7.5/1, they give you money back so bookie taking .5 as his cut.  Over time he knows it'll pay him.


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## DrMoriarty (3 Apr 2007)

Check out Paddy Powers' share price movement since the start of this year, for a better 'punt'.

Disclaimer: I'm not 'tipping' this (or any other) stock, just trying to make a point. Perhaps it's better made by the old Andy Capp cartoon where, when he begs Florrie for a loan of 'ten bob for a sure thing in the three o'clock', she asks him where they went on holiday this year (answer: 'Yer mother's'), and where the bookie went (Bermuda), and tells him to 'think about it'...

Andy's odds were still miles better than any lotto-player's.


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