# Schools, what level of risk do they pose?



## Clamball (3 Jan 2021)

I am wondering what everyone else thinks.

With 5K cases a day and out of control spread of the virus, are schools a safe area where the virus won’t spread or is it a high risk activity.

I personally think that public health always closed schools before because it was a place where people congregated and keeping people home stopped disease spread.  But suddenly in 2020 they realised this created other issues because parents can’t work if the kids are not in school.  Obviously in other centuries mothers were always home.   And with Covid the risk of serious illness and death increases with age, so if kids get sick there is less risk of serious illness and if the grandparents are not called in for childcare there is less chance of them catching Covid.


But as far as I understand the kids still catch Covid at the same rate as other age groups so the risk of spread is identical?   So 30 kids in a classroom with an SNA and a teacher, compared to 30 over 80’s in a carehome with 2 care assistants.  If one is Covid + is there less risk of spread in the classroom compared to the care home?  My view is the risk of spread is higher in the classroom because small kids are poorer at following rules and they are together, closer, for 6 hours, whereas in the care home they can move from their bedrooms to living areas to dining areas but are together 24 hr a day.   

The outcomes are more serious for the care home with risk of death being significantly higher, but is the risk of catching Covid the same as the classroom.

And the other thing that worries me is that the 30 kids and teacher and SNA go home and spread the virus to 32 more families.

If I was the decision maker I would ask most kids learn remotely, but allow kids of frontline workers or deprived kids still come to school.

I realise none of us are public health experts but what do people think?


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## PaddyBloggit (3 Jan 2021)

Clamball said:


> because small kids are poorer at following rules



Social distancing within classrooms hasn't really worked because they play in the yard together. What has worked is keeping classes away from eachother.



Clamball said:


> If I was the decision maker I would ask most kids learn remotely, but allow kids of frontline workers or deprived kids still come to school.



I can't see how that would work..... teacher in the classroom teaching can't do remote teaching at the same time. To me, it's all in school or all stay at home.


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## odyssey06 (3 Jan 2021)

Kids immune systems are so aggressive they fight off covid very quickly. Chances are by the time you test them they have already expelled the virus from their system and will fail a PCR test (source Professor Luke O'Neill). The problem is that there may still be a narrow window of time in which they can infect parents... who can then infect grandparents... So I don't think our contact tracing is really picking up the impact of schools being open.
With schools open can you really have a proper 'lockdown' in terms of restricting movements with so many people getting to and from school on a daily basis... Nope.

Against this, I remember when the schools were closed in Spring secondary school kids were just out and about in shopping centers, congregating in parks etc And then as OP notes younger kids might be left with older relatives while parents work.

So I can see why some countries have closed schools and some have kept them open.

I think right now as we have had a natural break from Christmas and cases are on the increase, schools should be kept closed for a longer period until the Level 5 restrictions start to kick in. Sending kids back to schools will mean huge increase in contacts. Keeping the schools closed and in theory the kids should only be seeing the same people they saw over the last 2 weeks.


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## Brendan Burgess (4 Jan 2021)

Why not simply close the schools for January and open them for a month longer during the summer? 

We are going to have a terrible January, but after that, things are going to get better  month by month with the roll out of the vaccine. 

There is a much better chance that we can have a proper Leaving Cert in  July than in June.  

Brendan


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## Purple (4 Jan 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Why not simply close the schools for January and open them for a month longer during the summer?
> 
> We are going to have a terrible January, but after that, things are going to get better  month by month with the roll out of the vaccine.
> 
> ...


That sounds reasonable and logical. It won't happen.


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## Ceist Beag (4 Jan 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Why not simply close the schools for January and open them for a month longer during the summer?
> 
> We are going to have a terrible January, but after that, things are going to get better  month by month with the roll out of the vaccine.
> 
> ...


I think some form of this is likely. They can cancel the two mid term breaks and reduce the Easter break to gain back some time as well.


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## Cricketer (4 Jan 2021)

PaddyBloggit said:


> Social distancing within classrooms hasn't really worked because they play in the yard together.


I don't know how you can be so sure about that Paddy. They are in the classroom for 5 hours a day but play for 40 minutes. One is indoors and one outdoors; possibly a big difference.


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## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2021)

Schools closing in England and Scotland...
To paraphrase Boris they are not high risk but can be vectors when there is high community transmission.


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## PaddyBloggit (4 Jan 2021)

Cricketer said:


> I don't know how you can be so sure about that Paddy. They are in the classroom for 5 hours a day but play for 40 minutes. One is indoors and one outdoors; possibly a big difference.



I am sure based on my experience since September. It's impossible to keep the children away from each other. They forget, both inside and outside of the classroom.

Even some of the children pretended to sanitise their hands if they could get away with it.

Though my class were in pods of 2, in reality they all got mixed up. Going out to the yard, coming in, they forgot to social distance.

I have windows open but even with distancing of tables from each other, they are not 2m or even 1m apart if they turn around to each other, which is what they did.

Our lunch breaks were split so that there were less pupils in the yard, so the classes were inside for half of the big break.... policing distancing where they turned to face each other was almost impossible.

In the yard, balls and other equipment were banned so they started playing running/chasing games. This generated heat, sweat, fast breath etc. and these games all seemed to end with them all congregating together.

Keeping children apart in a school setting is only in name. Practically it's very hard to enforce.

Bottom line is children forget, both inside and outside the classroom.

What I was trying to say in my last post (albeit badly) is that social distancing within specific classes didn't work but did between different classes.


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## Purple (5 Jan 2021)

PaddyBloggit said:


> I am sure based on my experience since September. It's impossible to keep the children away from each other. They forget, both inside and outside of the classroom.
> 
> Even some of the children pretended to sanitise their hands if they could get away with it.
> 
> ...


How many cases of Covid19 were there among the children in you class/school?


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## PaddyBloggit (5 Jan 2021)

Within my class, two that I know of (informed by parents).

I was never contacted by the HSE but I was a close contact according to my doctor.

I had to sort my own covid test. Came back negative. (I wear both a mask and a visor)

Within the school, don't know. We aren't told.

GDPR etc. makes it all hush hush.


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## Purple (5 Jan 2021)

PaddyBloggit said:


> Within my class, two that I know of (informed by parents).


Did they infect anyone else or did they get it at home?



PaddyBloggit said:


> I was never contacted by the HSE but I was a close contact according to my doctor.
> 
> I had to sort my own covid test. Came back negative. (I wear both a mask and a visor)


Children are far less likely than adults to infect others.



PaddyBloggit said:


> Within the school, don't know. We aren't told.
> 
> GDPR etc. makes it all hush hush.


No it doesn't. GDPR is about personal data. Stating total numbers of cases doesn't breach it.


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## Leper (5 Jan 2021)

I have no hard figures available, but from listening to radio reports and newspaper articles and a few contributions from trade union spokespeople our schools have the potential to be hotbeds of infection. Please convince me otherwise.

1. I hear of children being sent to school while sporting the symptoms of Covid. [Get them out of the house; damn the consequences]
2. Some months ago school principals couldn't get a contactable telephone number of some responsible person in the HSE. [Since rectified]
3. Students are being sent to school while their parents are awaiting the result of Covid tests. [Don't tell anybody syndrome]
4. Children have failed to keep safe distances in playgrounds. They meet after school too and often congregate in groups. [Children have a better immune system than adults but they can infect adults pretty fast]
5. Everybody working within the school systems at a higher risk than most others without. [My opinion]
6. The Track and Trace capability has all but died miserably. [Not a moral boost for school workers]
7. The initial supplies of hand sanitisers supplied to schools were found to have some adverse effect on users. [Wait for the litigation procedures to kick in later]
8. I understand school principals are governed by GDPR. [Does this mean they cannot identify those infected with Covid?]

. . . . . . . on the other hand . . . . . . . . 
I see school going kids sanitising their hands properly entering shopping centres (rubbing the sanitiser liquid over all fingers above and below and even into the fingernails plus their wrists. Most of us adults who walk past the sanitisers could learn from the kids. Keeping schools open before February is irresponsible.


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## PaddyBloggit (5 Jan 2021)

Purple said:


> Did they infect anyone else or did they get it at home?



I don't know. Teachers are kept out of the loop.



Purple said:


> Children are far less likely than adults to infect others.



To be fair, I kept my distance the best way I could. I washed hands often.

I wore a mask and visor but got lackadaisical after awhile and only used the mask.

We, initially, collected books, let lie for 2 days, before we touched them. That wasn't overly practical from my side so I collected, corrected and washed hands.



Purple said:


> No it doesn't. GDPR is about personal data. Stating total numbers of cases doesn't breach it.



Oh I know that but when gdpr is thrown at you as a reason to shut down an enquiry... it's a handy thing to fall back on.

"No we can't... gdpr and all that."

The one thing I have noticed since the children started washing their hands and sanitising more frequently is that absences are down and the sniffles have gone silent.


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## Purple (5 Jan 2021)

Leper said:


> [Children have a better immune system than adults but they can infect adults pretty fast]


No they can't.


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## PaddyBloggit (5 Jan 2021)

Leper said:


> 1. I hear of children being sent to school while sporting the symptoms of Covid. [Get them out of the house; damn the consequences]
> 2. Some months ago school principals couldn't get a contactable telephone number of some responsible person in the HSE. [Since rectified]
> 3. Students are being sent to school while their parents are awaiting the result of Covid tests. [Don't tell anybody syndrome]
> 4. Children have failed to keep safe distances in playgrounds. They meet after school too and often congregate in groups. [Children have a better immune system than adults but they can infect adults pretty fast]
> ...



1. Hard to tell
2. Correct
3. We've had a few kept at home while adults waited for test results.
4. Some of ours attended training where social distancing wasn't observed.
5. TBH, even with the cases in my classroom, I felt as safe as I ever was and I'd much prefer to be in the classroom teaching than at home online.
6. It didn't seem to work too well from the start.
7. I reckon those who were affected will get over it. Although saying that, I always go to wash my hands over sanitising. Who knows what the long term effects are from continual sanitisation.
8. Individuals with the virus cannot be indentified in any shape or form.

Re, keeping schools open. I think we should stay closed until February 1st. A full three weeks. That means I can also plan properly for online tuition.


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## odyssey06 (5 Jan 2021)

Purple said:


> No they can't.



Am going to add that Icelandic study to one of the sticky threads


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## Cricketer (5 Jan 2021)

What class were you teaching Paddy? Obviously distancing doesn't work too well up to the end of 2nd or so. Pods of 2? How many were in your class? You've either a small number or a very big classroom; wouldn't four pods of 6 or six pods of 4 be more manageable than twelve pods of 2 etc? Children mixing coming in and out of the building would be casual contacts and supervising them should mitigate that. I realise it depends on your clientele. There's a lot of certainty here from both yourself and Purple. I think we could all dial down the certainty a little, it's still a new virus after all.

Re. closing for January - I agree. Though it's hard to imagine it's going to be an easy decision to reopen towards the end of the month when dozens of deaths may be being recorded each day.


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## Purple (5 Jan 2021)

Cricketer said:


> I think we could all dial down the certainty a little, it's still a new virus after all.


I think facts and detail is what we need now. There's more than enough fear going around. 

The median age of those who are dying from this is well into the 80's and most of them have serious preexisting conditions. We need to look at hospitalisation and ICU figures and the age breakdown of those who are getting infected. The graph of those in at-risk groups is more important that the total case numbers, although I fully understand that the two are linked, as the issue is whether or not our hospital system will become overloaded. 

If we are talking about opening or closing schools what we really need is the R Number for Primary School children and the R Number for Secondary School children. There is a much stronger case for keeping secondary schools closed than primary schools; secondary school students are much better able to work from home and are also more likely to catch Covid, spread Covid and suffer stronger symptoms of Covid than primary school kids. 
When this started we had no choice to use blunt instruments. In the past 9 months we've had more than enough time to sharpen them up.


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## odyssey06 (5 Jan 2021)

No official announcement yet but RTE are reporting that Taoiseach Micheál Martin has confirmed the Government is "looking at school closures being extended to the end of the month"


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## Clamball (6 Jan 2021)

Yes, I heard the radio 1 interview yesterday at lunch.  He was saying that he and NPHET are in agreement that it is the 1 million people movements every day going to school that they want to stop which is why they are going to close the schools.  

Looking out my front window today, where I am working, there are much less people around.  I live between 2 primary schools so the impact is very high on traffic.  All I see are family groups walking to the park at the moment.


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## imalwayshappy (11 Jan 2021)

I wonder how long will it take for the schools to reopen? I am thinking the start of Feb. Although the case numbers are high now, I can see the numbers starting to come down after next week substantially.


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## Leper (11 Jan 2021)

imalwayshappy said:


> I wonder how long will it take for the schools to reopen? I am thinking the start of Feb. Although the case numbers are high now, I can see the numbers starting to come down after next week substantially.


Towards the end of November 2020 the daily infection rate was 200+ and we moved from Level 5 to Level 3 on 2nd December (against the advice of Tony Holohan and NPHET). This was a recipe for the disaster that inevitably came. Yesterday the infection rate was 6000+ and a couple of days ago it was 8000+. The Personal Responsibility against Covid that was conferred on the people of Ireland was dreadfully abused. Our hospitals are under severe pressure, businesses will remain closed longer and the reopening date for all schools is anybody's guess.

Mrs Lep and I self isolated for weeks and we don't venture out unless for essential reasons. But, all around me there are cars pulling up outside most houses and the occupants spend the day on their visits. Several people have run unofficial parties over the Christmas/New Year period. Even on New Years Eve there was a relatively large fancy dress party nearby which went on until the next day. A gathering of over 100 people in a shed was broken up by Gardaí just before Christmas. The hairdressing salon in an extension to a house nearby is thriving also. I reckon the hairdresser within is on her way to her first million since Covid restrictions kicked in.

Personal Responsibility, my hat! We'll be lucky if the schools are reopened by 1st April, I regret to say.


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## imalwayshappy (11 Jan 2021)

Leper said:


> Towards the end of November 2020 the daily infection rate was 200+ and we moved from Level 5 to Level 3 on 2nd December (against the advice of Tony Holohan and NPHET). This was a recipe for the disaster that inevitably came. Yesterday the infection rate was 6000+ and a couple of days ago it was 8000+. The Personal Responsibility against Covid that was conferred on the people of Ireland was dreadfully abused. Our hospitals are under severe pressure, businesses will remain closed longer and the reopening date for all schools is anybody's guess.
> 
> Mrs Lep and I self isolated for weeks and we don't venture out unless for essential reasons. But, all around me there are cars pulling up outside most houses and the occupants spend the day on their visits. Several people have run unofficial parties over the Christmas/New Year period. Even on New Years Eve there was a relatively large fancy dress party nearby which went on until the next day. A gathering of over 100 people in a shed was broken up by Gardaí just before Christmas. The hairdressing salon in an extension to a house nearby is thriving also. I reckon the hairdresser within is on her way to her first million since Covid restrictions kicked in.
> 
> Personal Responsibility, my hat! We'll be lucky if the schools are reopened by 1st April, I regret to say.



All fair points. I was actually surprised that they didn't invoke the 2km restriction. I know its hard on people to restrict movements to that level but it's a bitter pill that must be taken as demonstrated by the numbers.... I am still hopeful of 1st Feb schools reopening, granted, this might well be wishful thinking...


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## Purple (11 Jan 2021)

Ed "Pints" Ryan said:


> Your suggestion hasn't been thought out very well, IMHO.
> 
> Do you honestly think that the schools will reopen on 1st February?
> 
> Members of ISAG have calculated that if the current lockdown is as "successful" as the autumn lockdown, it will be May before the daily reported case numbers drop below 100.


The ISAG are a Zero Covid advocacy group. I'll take my data from the HSE and the Government agencies. 
100 cases a day is well below the level at which schools could reopen.



Ed "Pints" Ryan said:


> I'd be surprised if the schools reopen before Easter. What happens in such a scenario?  No summer holidays whatsoever, LC exams in September and overlapping school years?


 Just work through until the job is done. If that means no holidays then there'll be no holidays. So what?



Ed "Pints" Ryan said:


> Plus, there is no guarantee that things will be better.  The case numbers are worse now that ever.


 That's due t the infections which took place over Christmas, which I'm sure you know. This lockdown will reduce those numbers significantly, which I'm sure you know.



Ed "Pints" Ryan said:


> Current understanding of the Pfizer and Moderna mRMA vaccines suggest that those vaccinated may still transmit the virus.


 Oh for gods sake. There is a CHANCE that people who are vaccinated can get and transmit the virus. That chance is very low. 



Ed "Pints" Ryan said:


> UVDL has said that after doubling the purchase of Pfizer vaccines we should all be vaccinated by Q4.


 We don't all have to be vaccinated to reach mass immunity levels.


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## Purple (11 Jan 2021)

Ed "Pints" Ryan said:


> If they miss three months (JFM) and these are to be replaced by the summer holiday months (JA).... three into two does not go. So there!


And Mid Terms and Easter and all the other holidays. Lots of time.


Ed "Pints" Ryan said:


> Ireland has recorded the highest Covid-19 infection rate in the world over the past seven days.


I know we've the highest rates in Europe or the USA but I didn't know it was the highest in the world. We've the lockdown now so that figure will drop quite quickly. Relax. 


Ed "Pints" Ryan said:


> We need as few transmitters as possible.


Yes, but to get the R number well below 1 we need 50% of the adult population vaccinated. That's what this is about, not some vague "as few as possible" as that's not a defined figure and so is totally subjective.


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## Clamball (11 Jan 2021)

I think we are in uncharted territory as to when schools will re-open.  I think everyone is concentrating on keepings levels as low as they can currently.  But stopping people interacting is an uphill battle.

My company has us working from home unless absolutely essential to be there in person. I have a team working for me and I am arranging very closely that 1 person per day in the office to do the essential tasks. And this morning I hear from those who send their kids to the crèche that they all did so this am because they consider themselves essential. While our industry sector is essential we are not and our company would live without our services for a few months, albeit delaying stuff. We have made loads of profit in 2020 so we will be paid if we sit at home unable to work, but still my precious staff want to pop their kids in the crèche putting others at needless risk. We are neither front line or essential. It puts childcare workers and other parents at risk.

So with behaviour like that what chance do we have of getting the numbers down fast.  I am sick of being home, not visiting family and friends.  I even miss going to work.  But until I get the vaccine I have to remain cautious, I don’t want to catch the virus and die.

if I was the government I would call off the leaving cert on Feb 1st unless there is an almighty improvement.


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## Cricketer (11 Jan 2021)

Purple said:


> And Mid Terms and Easter and all the other holidays. Lots of time.


The teachers I know are all on duty today, interacting and working with their pupils (many of them with their partner at work too and children to mind). Do you want them to continue to do this until next Halloween or Christmas without a break or do you want schools to close fully, then reopen and pupils and teachers to work from then on?


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## Purple (11 Jan 2021)

Cricketer said:


> The teachers I know are all on duty today, interacting and working with their pupils (many of them with their partner at work too and children to mind). Do you want them to continue to do this until next Halloween or Christmas without a break or do you want schools to close fully, then reopen and pupils and teachers to work from then on?


Given how hard it is for both teachers and students to work online I'd like to see primary schools closed fully but reopened ASAP as small children are very low risk of either catching or spreading the virus.
Secondary schools should continue to work online but they should also stay open longer during the summer to make up for the shortcomings of working online. Considering the billions we are spending it shouldn't be a big deal finding a few million extra to make sure every student has access to a laptop.


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## Clamball (12 Jan 2021)

While it seems to be the case that primary school children are at low risk of dying from the virus if they catch it the evidence is a lot less clear, currently, if they catch it less than other age groups.  They seem to be a lot more asymptotic but they may catch it and pass it on without ever showing symptoms or testing positive.  

But one thing they do have is contact with adults, parents, older siblings, wider family, teachers, SNA’s, other parents. And when school is in session there are an awful lot of child adult interactions.

So, in an enclosed space, with close contact with 30 other kids, teachers and SNA. Aerosol droplets will spread throughout the room over 6 hours. Even if adults wear masks, stay 2 M distance, open windows, perfectly the risk increases as the day progresses.

It is also fair to say that there is a risk of child to child transmission which increases as the hours pass.

So if a kid in that classroom is Covid positive the risk keeps multiplying up and up as the day progresses and as the days go on.

The risk is not 0.  And we have heard from teachers and SNA how impossible it is to maintain the current systems, how kids do not stay in pods, do not stay 2M away.  Aerosol transmission will happen and this makes the staff feel unsafe.


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