# should i buy now



## stolen (27 Mar 2009)

Hello,

I am a single person earning 45k a year . I am in the process of getting a mortgage from boi at the moment. If the approval is successful, is now a good time to but for a first time buyer like myself as I am thirty six and not getting any younger ) The house is a new build, was valued at about 260 and am getting if for 190,000 builders finish. This will be my home for as far into the future as I can see, ie. i will not be selling. So, do I keep renting or make the move? I know that there is no definate answer to this, I am just looking for advice? Any help appreciated.

Thanks, David


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## spursfan1234 (27 Mar 2009)

i would think thats a good deal. the price is down 70k. if your looking for a home where you will stay then make the move and go for it. thats my opinion anyway


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## mf1 (27 Mar 2009)

There comes a time in everybodys life............

At a certain stage, most people want to stop renting ( a very Irish thing as most continentals are happy to rent but then there is a longer tradition of it), get their own place, do it up the way they want it and be able to come home, close the door behind them and know that they are at home. 

I think you have to see it that way rather than see it in terms of making money or losing money. If you can afford it, if you feel secure in your job, if its what you like, and if you do not want to continue to rent, then do it. 

mf


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## Teknon (27 Mar 2009)

I am in a similar position albeit a bit younger, I have my 8% deposit and have been approved in principal for a mortgage of EUR300K.  I don't think you will have a problem getting a mortgage for EUR190K but make sure you have at least an 8% deposit.  Personally I am going to wait until the end of the year as I am in no rush to see it there is any more shift in prices. At the end of the day it is up to you, but you might save yourself a bit of cash by holding out a few more months !


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## callybags (27 Mar 2009)

I would go for it.

hen I bought my house in 2000 I thought it was at the top of the market and I was mad. However, my father, who has been around the block a few times in relation to property said to me more or less what you are thinking.

If you can afford it ( allowing for increases in interest rates) nad are happy with location etc. then the value is less important.


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## stolen (27 Mar 2009)

thanks to everyone for that, that's what I was thinking myself, it's going to be my home and I'm tired of waisting money on rent every month, even if the price drops more, it will bounce eventually )


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## Brendan Burgess (27 Mar 2009)

Being tired of paying rent is not a reason for buying now. 

You are currently renting a property. After buying a house, you will be renting money to buy that house. 

If you think that property prices will continue to fall, then, financially, you should wait. The fact that they will probably recover at some stage in the future is not relevant. 

If you are spending €190k now, maybe in 6 months' time, you will be able to buy a bigger house in a better location for the same €190k. Or you might be able to buy the same house for less money. 

I cannot predict house prices, so they could rise over the next 6 months as well. 

It's your decision but you should make that decision having given due regard to all the factors. Don't make the decision based on popular myths such as "rent is dead money" or false logic such as "it doesn't matter as house prices will eventually rise again".


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## stolen (27 Mar 2009)

Hi Brendan, that makes sense, can I ask you a question, what would you do?


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## z103 (27 Mar 2009)

Has the ban on house price discussion now being lifted?
(I suppose since there must at last now be consensus on the issue)


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## JoeB (27 Mar 2009)

I wouldn't pay full price... however if the price has dropped from 260 to 190 that seems quite good if not very good. At least you'd be far better off than the people who spent 260. 

If you also have savings of 40K say then you'd owe even less, and so if the price dropped to 150 in the future you might not mind.. a bit of a gamble but one worth taking I'd have thought.. as you say you intend to live in it, not make massive profits off it.

Maybe try to get some added value, like a fitted kitchen or wardrobes for the bedroom, or landscaping etc. Or maybe offer 175 and see what happens?


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## Timbo (27 Mar 2009)

Brendan said:


> Being tired of paying rent is not a reason for buying now.
> 
> You are currently renting a property. After buying a house, you will be renting money to buy that house.
> 
> ...


 
Add some more myths: 

"if you can afford it the value/price doesn't matter/matter so much".

How many people here could afford €10 for a loaf of bread?
How many people here would think it doesn't matter if you pay €10 for a loaf of bread?


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## David_Dublin (27 Mar 2009)

I would not buy now if I was you. You are in the driving seat. Prices are VERY VERY unlikely to go up any time soon - falling wages, increasing taxes, reduced immigration, increased emmigration, increasing unemployment etc, it's hard not to see them go down quite a bit further.

I understand that you dont want to rent forever, and that (as one stockbroker said) "all you get trying to pick the bottom is a smelly finger" but why not sit it out a little longer and at the very least you will have the same options open to you with less competition.

Good luck!


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## george.shaw (27 Mar 2009)

Never catch a falling knife !

Unless you have a wife and kids I would hold off and wait until at least a quarter or an annual rise in house prices.


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## stolen (27 Mar 2009)

thanks again for all the replies, great forum and very helpful information, david


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## jonq74 (31 Mar 2009)

I am one of those who have just taken the risk like you are considering and purchased a 4bed terraced. last year it was 275k with nothing provided. this year i got it for 200k with free legal fees all appliances fitted kitchen, carpets, wooden floors, wardrobes all in all over 10k's worth of extras. so it depends really. the builder was trying to sell his last few houses so for me I cant see the price dropping any further. i would say its near or at the bottom of the market for first time buyers anyways. but thats just my experience.


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## NorthDrum (31 Mar 2009)

jonq74 said:


> I am one of those who have just taken the risk like you are considering and purchased a 4bed terraced. last year it was 275k with nothing provided. this year i got it for 200k with free legal fees all appliances fitted kitchen, carpets, wooden floors, wardrobes all in all over 10k's worth of extras. so it depends really. the builder was trying to sell his last few houses so for me I cant see the price dropping any further. i would say its near or at the bottom of the market for first time buyers anyways. but thats just my experience.


 
Really and truely its very difficult to work out whether or not it is near the bottom of the decline in prices. Most of us would like to think it is to be honest.

If you are considering taking out a mortgage right now, you should factor in:


The cost and affordability factor of interest rate increases
Your job stability
How much it will benefit you or how much you really want it
People should make up their own minds based on their own circumstances. We could be speculating for months or years whether or not the value of property will increase or decrease. At the end of the day you are buying a house cheaper then last year and you are getting a good deal today. People buy houses to live in, not necessarily to be making money. If you are comfortable with the idea of living in the property for 10 years + you should not be concerning yourself with "timing the markets" as much as you should be concerned with your ability to finance this venture long term.

People renting are in an enviable position in that they can either wait or buy. There is nothing to SUGGEST that house prices will increase in the next 3-5 years or so, but theres nothing to SUGGEST that they will decrease dramatically either.

Comparing rent as dead money is basically a perception that some make and it depends on your circumstances and what happens longterm in the markets with house values and Interest rates. I dont particularly class it as a myth as it is relevant when interest rates are low (cheaper mortgage) and house prices are increasing (cost more to get a mortgage) and its certainly not money you will ever see bear any return.

Irish People generally prefer to own their own houses , where'as on the continent they are just as comfortable renting all their lives. Me personally, I see rent as dead money in that I will never own anything by paying rent. Even if you are only paying small sums of money off your mortgage initially you are still the owner of that property unless you are unable to pay the money back. In most cases the banks would do everything they can to prevent them from having to repossess your house (and they will generally give you time to get back on your feet). A landlord can simply throw you out. 

Again, THIS IS SIMPLY MY PERSONAL OPINION, NOT BASING THIS ON PROFESSIONAL ADVICE, I think an arguement can be made either way for renting or buying in the current climate, but once a person weighs up the pro's and con's of both rationally and prudently, then they will make the correct decision for themselves.


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## Maximus152 (2 Apr 2009)

I would buy now, I bought back in 90's and ppl would tell you (openly laugh) your mad paying that. Alas I never subscribed to peer group pressure made my own calculated decision, was it good value, was it in a reasonable location, and was I able to afford the payments if the rate went up a few notches and if so that was fine because if the price did fall (which would not have been much as the overall purchasing price was low) I would really care as I would hold on to it for at least 5 years. What I am saying is, strike the Iron when hot, i f you listen to ppl you will get a bum steer, look at it rationally, just my humble 2 pence worth but hey what do I know.


Maximus 152
Because Im worth it.


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## Bronte (2 Apr 2009)

I agree with Northdrum's advice to you.  Very good post.


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## Ciaraella (2 Apr 2009)

I think you have to decide whether you want to go by your heart or your head. If you love the house, if it's in an area you want to live in for the next twenty years and you can afford it then i'd say go for it. If you are compromising location etc for the sake of buying then hold off. Myself and my fiance bought a house that we are planning on raising a family in so the rise and fall of prices was never an issue for us.


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## Maximus152 (2 Apr 2009)

Bronte,
Glad to hear that, and I might add I agree with Maximus152 post, very good post (and in no way saying North's post was inadequate). LMAO I love this website, makes me smile sometimes.

Maximus152
100,000 lemmings can not be wrong.


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## Maximus152 (2 Apr 2009)

Ciaraella, excellent reason and one which is a fine example of smart buying, you will not be influenced by short term dips  as your in it for long term and added bonus of course that the whole thing will become a positive equity with handsome rewards, has happened before  and will happen again, its simple economics!

Maximus152


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## curiously (3 Apr 2009)

NorthDrum said:


> but theres nothing to SUGGEST that they will decrease dramatically either.



While your post in the main was good I'm sorry but this bit is rubbish. There is a lot to suggest that prices will decrease and dramatcially at that. A 3.7bn deficit in march which includes 38% decrease in excise and a 22% decrease in tax (largely capital gains from no house sales!). The two main industries (cars and houses) fuelled by Irish peoples greed and crusade for status over the past 10 years.

Our economic wealth was built on a property bubble created by Irish people selling each other houses with money that was borrowed from someone else. Now the free money is gone what else can happen other than house prices collapsing.

"Catching a falling knife" is a really good analogy!


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## David_Dublin (3 Apr 2009)

I agree with Curiously. Push the boat out & treat yourself, rent a great house/apartment in a place u couldn't afford to buy, enjoy life and dont burden yourself with a new house purchase that you'll lose ur shirt on.


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## Maximus152 (3 Apr 2009)

Fair points, but prices can only drop so much relative to the actual purchasing price in a certain climate, for example if your buying a house for 180,000 (there are 3 & 4 bed semi at this price, see daft) and you know its good value and it may fall +/- 10,000 if even, well thats quiet a good buy in any book, reason being when things do stablise which they will as night becomes day you will have a healthy and bountyful crop in a few years. Well thats my way of thinking, obviously waithing and renting is another way to do this, but I was always one to believe get your foot in early at a point where you do not feel dizzy or liable to injury from a fall. We are not going back to the stoneage here, ppl need to calm down.


Maximus152


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## David_Dublin (3 Apr 2009)

Maximus - that's all well and good, and logical. If ur talking about a +/- 10,000. What if we're talking about -80,000 and prices not recovering for 10 years? Add to that, a slow recovery during which u will still be able to pick up bargains as everyone recovers from the carnage that has gone before. It's not necessarily going to happen, but it's not inconceivable.

I had to laugh at the lazy journalism last week when that house on Eglinton Road sold for 1.6M at auction, with everyone herlading it as a signal as being at or close to the bottom - just because something sold in auction, and for dramatically less than it would have before, the property editors assume we're nearing the bottom. You could equally use the data to justify we're nowhere near the bottom - things are going to get far worse in the economy and prices are already down to this...


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## Maximus152 (3 Apr 2009)

David, no thats not what I mean, and I agree with your point, properties at the higher end will and can still fall thats a given, this is because there is still so much over value and volitility surrounding them. For example if I was bestowed 1 million euro from a rich old Aunt (fat chance) I would not even look at anything approaching the 400 Euro mark,  but in the 120,000 to 200,000 I would have a nice time cutting a deal with builder or whom ever. Look thats just me, I do my own thing anyways always have at the end of the day life is short so be happy and responsible for your choice and do not blame ppl who did not tell you or who did lol.... I have heard a few of them.

Maximus152


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## David_Dublin (3 Apr 2009)

Yes?


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## Maximus152 (3 Apr 2009)

YES ??  yes to what David...?


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## David_Dublin (3 Apr 2009)

U had a post there for a while: "David,"


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## David_Dublin (3 Apr 2009)

Maximus - sound principles for making decisions. Caveat emptor and all that, own ur own decisions and not blaming others is always a good starting point.

I think ur prob right re there being greater scope for bigger falls in higher end stuff, but I wonder if there is still not 20-30% left to fall off the 200k bracket. Who knows? One thing that bemuses me is the economists getting it wrong all the time, their economic models only serving to explain what has gone before. Economic models only work like any equation, your inputs create a result. Nobody knows what the inputs are going to be in the future, so trying to predict the output is nonsense.


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## Maximus152 (3 Apr 2009)

David, totally agree on what you say about Economist's. There are two types of Economist's in this world one's that think they know it all and one's who know nothing,  Really though economics can be useful depending on what you are looking at. If you are forecasting into the future of the housing market its basically out the window, anything can happen, this is why your a better judge if you have any savy you can read it on the ground and equate some rational/street wise savy into your choices, there is no point in some guy straight out of Uni dressed in a Dark blue pin striped suit (power glasses included) telling you what he thinks and what all of us should do, that's just not reality and never ever was. In fact you can see this even in the world of stock, if you look at daily trends the follow a pattern, but the pattern is supposed to be reality, when in fact its the people looking at what's just happened are creating it lol (may explained it wrong but you will see if you look at it, its bizarre).20-30% fall of yes can happen, but I would wager it will not go that low and if I bought at that I would be more than willing to accommodate 20-30% of 200k as opposed to 20-30% of 400k and safe in the knowledge that it will recover, and that is the REALITY!

Maximus152


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## Howitzer (3 Apr 2009)

Easy on the Nescafe there Maximus152.


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## Firefly (3 Apr 2009)

Ciaraella said:


> If you love the house, if it's in an area you want to live in for the next twenty years and you can afford it then i'd say go for it..


 
Exactly the situation we are in now - we've found THE house in a location where houses never come up for a price that we can afford and we are going for it. If we were considering something like a 3bed semi in an out-of-town estate, we'd hold off - they may bottom out but they'll hardly start jumping up quickly as there is huge supply. Just my 2pc.

Best of luck anyway, and as my mammy says, "If it's for ya, it won't go by ya"!


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## NorthDrum (3 Apr 2009)

curiously said:


> While your post in the main was good I'm sorry but this bit is rubbish. There is a lot to suggest that prices will decrease and dramatcially at that. A 3.7bn deficit in march which includes 38% decrease in excise and a 22% decrease in tax (largely capital gains from no house sales!). The two main industries (cars and houses) fuelled by Irish peoples greed and crusade for status over the past 10 years.
> 
> Our economic wealth was built on a property bubble created by Irish people selling each other houses with money that was borrowed from someone else. Now the free money is gone what else can happen other than house prices collapsing.
> 
> "Catching a falling knife" is a really good analogy!


 
The markets, including house prices have already reajusted hugely to the economic woes of our country. The figures we read today were factored in (to a large degree) already in the decreasing values of houses.

I dont necessarily think that the expected decreases in government income to be a good indicator that the property market will continue to fall rapidly.

Personally, I sort of chuckle when people talk of economys or house price collapses. Im not saying it isnt possible, but they base this on information that suggests tough times, but doesnt necessarily equate to the "end of the world" assumptions many people love to champion.

As a member of the EU we are in a much better position to protect ourselves from such disasters. Doesnt mean it cant happen, but it helps, particularly being part of a stronger currency.

Anybody, whether they be doom and gloom merchants or not, should NEVER EVER EVER, rely on the Irish Media or RTE to base their opinions on how this country is going to fair long term. They sell stories, not truths . . If you get your information from external sources you get a greater understanding of the state of the nation. Right now people are scared and panicked, any little piece of bad news in the press is being reported 10 fold over any good news. Its true that there are more awful things happening, but thats no reason for people to simply jump off the scale of reasonable expectations.

Regarding House prices , there is a supply and demand issue (physically and monetary wise). Builders are not building many anymore, in 2 or 3 years times there should be a much higher demand for houses. This should have an impact on your house price or at the very least reduce the impact of other factors pushing the reduction of house prices.

Also, banks werent lending for the guts of a year (and still dont to a degree) which impacts on the value of houses. If people cant get funds to buy, supply increases and demand decreases.

Houses around Dublin city should maintain , longterm, their value as their is only so much space in Dublin.

So-


banks are slowly beginning to release capital for purchases
New Properties being built have pretty much stopped from a peak of 90k or so
People are availing of possibly up to 60% decreses in certain areas
Lender criteria is being tightened
Will they continue to go down rapidly? I dont personally think so, they may still godown 5% - 10% in the next couple of years, but I think there is more suggesting that they will level off sooner rather then later. This may not be the case and everything could go to hell but given the information available right now I think this is a reasonable assumption.


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## Maximus152 (3 Apr 2009)

Howitzer, I'll drink what I like when I like, why don't you knit something


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## Maximus152 (3 Apr 2009)

lol FireFly well said! 
Best of luck anyway, and as my mammy says, "If it's for ya, it won't go by ya"!

Good post!

Maximus


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## Kine (3 Apr 2009)

Good Post NorthDrum


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## Howitzer (3 Apr 2009)

And unemployment, that'll have no effect?


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## NorthDrum (3 Apr 2009)

Howitzer said:


> And unemployment, that'll have no effect?


 
Im not saying that, I am saying that the figures we have available dont necessarily point to a housing collapse.

There are predictions of up to 15% unemployment by the end of next year. Everybody is trying to overshoot on the negative side so we can get a softer landing (as soft as possible) or at least prepare for tough times. I still see 15% unemployment as 85% employment, but thats just me. I try to err on the positive side (without being naieve).



I dont think theres anything wrong with trying to take positives from our current situation.

People are being forced to learn how to budget
Banks are being forced into bringing in more prudent lending practises
This country is being forced into being more competitive
Some of the cosier cartels and fatcat agreements are being investigated and attacked
Im not saying that a housing collapse is impossible, just improbable. I would of said the slump in Bank shares was highly unlikely 2 years ago, but at that time there was very little to suggest this disaster would take hold.

In a recession people get depressed and struggle to see any positives or any end to the troubles. Funnily enough its when most investors make most of their money (if we are talking about a house on an investment scale). Im not for one minute suggesting people buy houses as investments now , but nobody will ring a bell when the worst troubles are over and when housing prices will stabalise.

If they dont go up or down much in the next five years and salaries dont go up or down much, then you havent really gained anything by continuing to rent (when renting specifically waiting for house prices to hit bottom!)

All I am saying is that if you do your homework and factor in ups and downs (within reason) on purchasing a house, there is no need for you to be scared of making the jump. There will NEVER be a time when buying a house will be risk free.


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## Thomas22 (4 Apr 2009)

NorthDrum said:


> There are predictions of up to 15% unemployment by the end of next year. Everybody is trying to overshoot on the negative side so we can get a softer landing (as soft as possible) or at least prepare for tough times. I still see 15% unemployment as 85% employment, but thats just me. I try to err on the positive side (without being naieve).


That is the most ridiculous statement I have ever heard. The highest unemplyment in the history of the state was about 17% but you think that is OK because 83% are employed


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## charliemacck (4 Apr 2009)

leghorn said:


> Has the ban on house price discussion now being lifted?
> (I suppose since there must at last now be consensus on the issue)


 
I would be great to get an answer to this - yes or no? People have been recently for making responses far more innocuous in response to someone asking about whether or not it's a good time to buy. To be honest, if's people cannot speculate about house prices drops, then questions on the line of "is it a good time to buy" should be banned too, as anyone answering "no" is liable to be banned.


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## charliemacck (4 Apr 2009)

NorthDrum said:


> People are being forced to learn how to budget


What's positive about this? People have less to spend - therefore, they will purchase less goods, which will have a knock-on effect on retail, which in turn puts people out of work, who will then have less to spend... Being positive about this is a bit like thinking "I've had my legs cut off - never mind, I'll spend less on trousers".





> Banks are being forced into bringing in more prudent lending practises


"Prudent" = "terrified to lend money to even reputable and worthwhile businesses, because, oops, we gave it all to developers while not encouraging people to save in deposits because, ooops, they were spending all their money on mortgages/rent".


> This country is being forced into being more competitive


We haven't a hope of this happening unless rents and mortgages come down even more. Do you know how far salaries and mortages/rent will have to come down before we can compete with, say, Eastern Europe?


> Some of the cosier cartels and fatcat agreements are being investigated and attacked


 
Pull the other one. Name _one_ person who so far has been punished for taking part in the bubble debacle.



> Im not saying that a housing collapse is impossible, just improbable. I would of said the slump in Bank shares was highly unlikely 2 years ago, but at that time there was very little to suggest this disaster would take hold.


 
Was the slump in bank shares "improbable"? If so, then why do you think two inprobably events in a row will not happen?

Also, house prices in Dublin have dropped 40% already, with no levelling off in sight. Is this not a "collapse"? If not, then what percentage drop will you admit is a collapse?

It amazing how people even now, with 30,000 on the dole every month, are still drinking the kool aid.


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## Complainer (4 Apr 2009)

Any kind of risk analysis would look at two angles - the likelihood of the risk occurring, and the impact of the risk if it does happen. A simple but effective approach is to rank each of impact and likelihood on a 1-10 scale and multiply them out. Much of the discussion here has focussed on the likelihood of markets going up/down, but has not looked at the impacts of these risks.

The OP might want to fill in a 4-square matrix for liklihood and impact of prices going up or down by say €30k, and see how it works out.


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## callaghanj (4 Apr 2009)

I've gone ahead and bought....I got a good deal...the house was not in a development and a real gem. Saw no reason to wait!!


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## NorthDrum (4 Apr 2009)

charliemacck said:


> What's positive about this? People have less to spend - therefore, they will purchase less goods, which will have a knock-on effect on retail, which in turn puts people out of work, who will then have less to spend... Being positive about this is a bit like thinking "I've had my legs cut off - never mind, I'll spend less on trousers".
> "Prudent" = "terrified to lend money to even reputable and worthwhile businesses, because, oops, we gave it all to developers while not encouraging people to save in deposits because, ooops, they were spending all their money on mortgages/rent".
> 
> We haven't a hope of this happening unless rents and mortgages come down even more. Do you know how far salaries and mortages/rent will have to come down before we can compete with, say, Eastern Europe?
> ...


 
Try understanding my point before ranting off . .

I love this whole "you think this is ok" waffle. Ah, the glass is half empty. Another one of those . . . All the signals points to armageddon. Really, there is no point in discussing anything rationally with your kind.

Im not saying things are great and everything is going to be fine. Im saying the markets have factored in some of the bad news and some of the things to come down the road. The very fact that we have high figures of unemployment predicted has given some level of reality to markets and prices alike. 


And Charlie, dont annoy me with the "whats positive about" . . . . Its just the usual "lets take the bad out of everything" negative Joe view, where you just DONT WANT TO VIEW ANYTHING POSITIVELY. Its the reason why RTE and the media in this country find it so easily to depress the hell out of so many. Its also the reason why they get so many viewers, so many people in this country want to read about all the bad things happening to our economy (but pretend that its simply to keep themselves informed!). As I said, anybody using Irish Mediums to "keep themselves Informed" on the state of our economy, is only getting half the picture (if that). Im not naieve, Im a realist, but trying to find the good out of the bad is far more productive then trying to find more bad out of the bad.

So you think that people having to learn to save and be prudent with their money is bad long term . . . This seems to suggest you think there is some quick fix solution to all our woes, please do tell . . Oh we should go down the Obama route, yes, of course, shame we dont have access to the same levels (even in Irish Terms) of funds to bring out such a package.


Banks had to readjust their lending criteria, last year has been a knightmare but we are hopefully coming out of that moment. Like I said, its easy to look at the last year, look at Expected unemployment increase and forget that these things have already contributed significantly to decreases in house prices.

We dont have to necessarily be as competitive as Eastern European countries, if it was that simple we wouldnt have any foreign investment in this country (and wouldnt of been able to get it when our wages and salaries were spiralling out of control during boom).

Nobody has been held accountable yet, but at the moment they are very uncomfortable. I have to believe that something will be done and they are being investigated, they are certainly not as comfortable as they were same time last year. Your not suggesting that the most important thing right now is to hang these guys by the football, do you think that will solve our economic woes, or perhaps just make you feel a little bit better. Here is a suggestion, when this thing eventually levels off, then protest on the streets about all these fatcats who have gotten away with x , y , z. That is when you will get things done, after the most important factors of economies in a recession are taken care of. Im not saying they shouldnt be arrested right now but its not the most important thing that needs to be done right now.

Im not talking about what will happen, I am talking about what is probobley likely given the figures we have at hand. Much of this has been expected (much of it not) and I believe the markets have factored in alot of what we will see in the next year (if there are no more surprises). There is as much a likelyhood of things declining at this stage as there is of things levelling off. The blind panic so many people are showing is simply because nobody really knows whats going to happen. Everything is speculation based on the rapidly ever changing environment.

You can continue to assume the worst and see everything pointing towards the four horses, or you can accept that people are still buying houses, people still need houses, demand will increase over the next couple of years and we will eventually get over this crisis.


The gospel according to the Armageddon Brigade.


hang the bankers, this is the main way of solving our countries problems, at the very least it will get us back on track
if this doesnt solve the problems revert to Panic, throw out every negative stat you can get your hands on. Positive thoughts of any kind are unacceptable and should make you ashamed of yourself.
then accept that we are all screwed and lets just talk about the impending disaster (dismissing any positive talk as crazy!).
Since its going to happen, we might aswell embrace the IMF (Who will of course run out of money), then embrace farming in our back gardens (as we will have no money for anything) and then it will be down to raping and pillaging . . .
A new Ireland will be born, everybody will follow the same code of negativity and depression, anybody who speaks positively gets burned at the stake . . . .


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## NorthDrum (4 Apr 2009)

callaghanj said:


> I've gone ahead and bought....I got a good deal...the house was not in a development and a real gem. Saw no reason to wait!!


 
Congradulations on your new home. If its right for you, its right for you . . .


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## Maximus152 (4 Apr 2009)

NorthDrum well said, CallaghanJ well done now try and enjoy your home! Some of the post in here speak volumes, I would hate to see some of you trying to do some grocery shopping, heaven for bid there was a sale! lol talk about indecisive... I mean I will, but sure I wont will I? Ah Yes! I will definetly...but what about Mars and ists solar eclipse...

Maximus152


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## MrMan (4 Apr 2009)

charliemacck said:


> I would be great to get an answer to this - yes or no? People have been recently for making responses far more innocuous in response to someone asking about whether or not it's a good time to buy. To be honest, if's people cannot speculate about house prices drops, then questions on the line of "is it a good time to buy" should be banned too, as anyone answering "no" is liable to be banned.


 

Having followed this ban for a long time as i'm sure you have I'm constantly surprised at the amount of posts that constantly try to batter any positive sentiment towards the property market yet are allowed on this site. If someone asks is there a rise in sales or prices they will be shut down but if someone asks is it a good time to buy the inevitable 'no way are you mad' are allowed to smother any reasoned argument.

If there is a ban there is a ban but it should be absolute or lifted. We are now at a place where there is a real possibility of things having levelled off so it is important for people to be able to share their knowledge especially when some are thinking of taking the plunge into buying again or for the first time.


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## MrMan (4 Apr 2009)

NorthDrum said:


> Congradulations on your new home. If its right for you, its right for you . . .


 
Well done, there is so may more factors to buying a house than simple economics and I hope it works out well for you.


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## NorthDrum (4 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> Having followed this ban for a long time as i'm sure you have I'm constantly surprised at the amount of posts that constantly try to batter any positive sentiment towards the property market yet are allowed on this site. If someone asks is there a rise in sales or prices they will be shut down but if someone asks is it a good time to buy the inevitable 'no way are you mad' are allowed to smother any reasoned argument.
> 
> If there is a ban there is a ban but it should be absolute or lifted. We are now at a place where there is a real possibility of things having levelled off so it is important for people to be able to share their knowledge especially when some are thinking of taking the plunge into buying again or for the first time.


 
Agreed.


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## charliemacck (4 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> Having followed this ban for a long time as i'm sure you have I'm constantly surprised at the amount of posts that constantly try to batter any positive sentiment towards the property market yet are allowed on this site. If someone asks is there a rise in sales or prices they will be shut down but if someone asks is it a good time to buy the inevitable 'no way are you mad' are allowed to smother any reasoned argument.


 
Are you honestly trying to tell people outside the AAM moderator bubble that people have been banned for talking up the property market, but not vice versa?


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## Howitzer (4 Apr 2009)

NorthDrum said:


> Agreed.


I find it hard to reconcile the positivity you've displayed on this topic with your thoughts elsewhere.





NorthDrum said:


> Whatever happens, whether they tax the feck out of the rich or not, we are all going to have to chip in. The very fact that theres been people attacking a tax on texts, once again, highlights the bubble that some people are living in. They just dont understand the gravity of the situation, nor do they understand how bad things could conceivably get. I have said it before, a tax on texts will be the last thing that will bother anybody this time next year.


 
Other than the fact that you're a Mortgage Broker and that MrMan is an Estate Agent I can't see any other reason for your blind optimism - on this subject. How can you make that statement and still come out with the advice you'rve given the original poster on this thread?



NorthDrum said:


> There are predictions of up to 15% unemployment by the end of next year. Everybody is trying to overshoot on the negative side so we can get a softer landing (as soft as possible) or at least prepare for tough times. I still see 15% unemployment as 85% employment, but thats just me. I try to err on the positive side (without being naieve).


Crazy talk.


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## Thomas22 (4 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> If there is a ban there is a ban but it should be absolute or lifted. We are now at a place where there is a real possibility of things having levelled off so it is important for people to be able to share their knowledge especially when some are thinking of taking the plunge into buying again or for the first time.



That is strange logic. The site should reconsider the ban because you think things have levelled off and now it is important to share that knowledge.


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## NorthDrum (4 Apr 2009)

Howitzer said:


> I find it hard to reconcile the positivity you've displayed on this topic with your thoughts elsewhere.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 
Like I said time and time again, the markets have factored much of these hard times in already. What you cant understand is that there is a balance between people who cannot grasp whats going on in the country and think sure everything will be ok, with people who only see doom and gloom with no constructive comments to add to debates. You, my friend simply see the doom and gloom, I can accept that, but dont for a minute think that it has to be either one way or the other, some people are able to balance their feelings and understand and factor in both sides of the debate (because everything we are talking about is opinions, nothing is absolute . . ).

Dont know why I repeat myself, but I am somewhere in between (WHHHAAAT, Is this possible for people to recognise the gravity of the situation but be positive on the countries long term outlook . . somebody get a priest, this guys possessed!) . To people like yourself that think any negative news is going to lead us towards a housing collapse, I will err on the more subtle side of predictions (predicting a house crash is sensationalist and based mainly on fear). To people who storm the streets demanding that they not be taxed, I say they do not understand the gravity of the situation. Cant be much clearer then that.

Your comments on me being a mortgage advisor are not really surprising to be honest. Whenever anybody trys to shed some sort of positives on the economy they get the same drivel. Either they are fatcats looking to promote their own interets, have a vested interest in making a debate go a certain way, or they are just "drinking too much caffeine". Its your stereotypical USA republican answer to most discussions that they cant intellectually win. If you cant proove them wrong in debate, just slag them off or shout the loudest or throw some mud that hopefully takes the focus off your unbalanced opinions . .

My motives are soley to give my opinions on this board and give people advice on areas I feel I can help them with. Look through my posts and tell me that I canvass for businees to all the members. If I was simply looking for business here you wouldnt see me in ANY arguements. It doesnt make sense for somebody trying to promote their business by arguing with half the clientell. If people agree with me great, if they dont, fine. I find this website great to bounce off my opinions and gauge peoples opinions on topics, because seldom are things in life "black or white". In my profession you dont get many chances to debate your industry or debate peoples feelings on certain aspects of it.

Now you dont have the "vested interest" card, what other mud can you throw my way to proove you are completely right . . . And just to make a point, even if I was pushing my agenda, while it may take some credibility away from my points, it doesnt make them invalid. House prices have gone down anywhere up to 60% in the last 2 years, yet salaries have gone down perhaps 5%-10%. So my €100 to buy a house two years ago is worth roughly €150 (in terms of buying power of similar houses). . . House building has declined 85% since the peak of the boom. Demand for houses mainly dropped because money wasnt available, but should be easier to get as banks begin to give mortgages again. Are these reasons why the property market will recover? well they help but ultimately they will not neccasarily help a complete recovery of the property market , because there are other factors affecting the prices of houses (unemployment . . ) . There you go, a nice balanced take on some figures. 

Jees . . . Whats with all the cynics on AAM, I reckon there is a strong arguement for a conspiracy theory Section. Just let these guys go there and rant off about the end of the world and everybody trying to dupe them . . .


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## charliemacck (5 Apr 2009)

Thomas22 said:


> That is strange logic. The site should reconsider the ban because you think things have levelled off and now it is important to share that knowledge.


 
Yeah, very strange - it was OK to keep the ban in place during a property bubble when warning people might have helped.

MrMan, are you an estate agent?


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## Senna (5 Apr 2009)

I always found the ban very suspicious, this is a financial website offering advice on all financial matters, but you could not get honest opinions on the largest purchase you're every likely to make.  The excuse of everything being said and too much heated conversations is a joke, and a costly one at that.
I dare say a good few people in 2006/7/8 lost thousands by not getting accurate advice on here.  





I await this post being deleted.


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## Askar (5 Apr 2009)

I don't find it at all strange that estate agents and mortgage brokers are posting 'buy' recommendations on the basis of 'if it feels right' then its right for you. Nor, indeed, do I find it strange that they can post long indignant rants if you raise any question marks over the objectivity of their advice or just take an opposite view. 

I am also not surprised if they particularly hate any suggestion that they are completely disqualified from commenting on a question like the one posted by the OP by virtue of the fact that their livelihoods depend on people deciding to buy houses, and will use all and any argument to promote buyers in the market.

I recall another thread on overseas property where a disaffected employee of an estate agent alleged that these type of fora were used by his former employer to start threads as a marketing tool. 

Assuming that this is a genuine OP, I would make the point that there are plenty of websites now tracking asking prices and movement of house prices in most areas where a person would want to buy. These websites still show a downward trend and based on the current state of the economy there is nothing to suggest that more distressed sellers will not be coming onto the market in the near term. There is still an overhang of supply for residential and rental property (per my last look at daft figures) and current potential rental yields on property are still below long run yields on property. General economic principles would suggest that continued oversupply and weak demand will lead to continued reduction in the near term i.e. next 12 months.  

Btw, it would be helpful if posters indicated if they were estate agents or mortgage brokers. 

Senna, I am sympathetic to your (soon to be deleted?) post. TMF did not suffer by having open, heated bull v. bear views on UK property market.


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## charliemacck (5 Apr 2009)

NorthDrum said:


> hang the bankers, this is the main way of solving our countries problems


 
I'm not going to respond in detail to this self-pitying rubbish, I have better things to do on a Sunday afternoon . Suffice to say, you originally said that the "fat cats" and "cosy cartels" were being attacked, I pointed out that *not one* person responsible has been punished, and you completely mispresent my opinion and create an entire strawman argument that I want to "hang the bankers". I'm sure people in this forum can see through a typical tactic from a VI.

Personally, I feel that, for transparency, all moderators of this forum should have their job title in their .signature.


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## NorthDrum (5 Apr 2009)

Charlie and askar. 

I can be just as ignorant to your posts and not respond to points you make, sort of makes it easier for you to continue on your "motive" theory without having to properly respond.

You presume I am promoting people to buy houses on a whim, but fail to even awknowledge the very fair, relevant points I make. You have taken what you wanted out of my posts. Anybody with the remotest intelligence will be able to ascertain that even as a financial advisor, I have a far more balanced view of the countries woes then your own very Ill educated, poorly qualified opinions.

Im not really sure where you get the idea that I am writing "self pity" rubbish, particularly as you dont even qualify what exactly I have written to suggest I am championing support for a cause with a hidden movtive(thats all in your heads).

I dont hide my profession (my website link is below), I explain the reasons why I feel a certain way (not based soley on my cynical presumptions) and I awknowledge that things could very well get worse (as opposed to assuming everything points one way or the other).

How about we leave things be. I think you guys are one of the many Armageddon delusional ill informed of this nation and you think Im an advisor with a vested interest to screw as many people as possible.


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## callaghanj (5 Apr 2009)

I think people are now just full of doom and gloom about the property market and are mad at themselves for not seeing it coming!!! We all have a part to play in getting out of this mess and the best way is to remain positve and continue spending the pennies or cents!! House prices will stop dropping once the banks start lending and that will come around quicker than you think.


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## NorthDrum (5 Apr 2009)

callaghanj said:


> I think people are now just full of doom and gloom about the property market and are mad at themselves for not seeing it coming!!! We all have a part to play in getting out of this mess and the best way is to remain positve and continue spending the pennies or cents!! House prices will stop dropping once the banks start lending and that will come around quicker than you think.


 
Are you an estate agent or a mortgage broker . . .


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## charliemacck (5 Apr 2009)

callaghanj said:


> I think people are now just full of doom and gloom about the property market and are mad at themselves for not seeing it coming!!! We all have a part to play in getting out of this mess and the best way is to remain positve and continue spending the pennies or cents!! House prices will stop dropping once the banks start lending and that will come around quicker than you think.


 
If you're going to troll, you really have to do better than that.


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## callaghanj (5 Apr 2009)

Neither an estate or broker I'm afraid !! I meant it as a light hearted comment.....was thinking more of friends of mine who went on and on about house prices rising and often laughed at me when_ I mentioned there could be a crash._ I was training as an insolvency practioner in London during the recesion of the early 90's and saw first hand what happened when the bubble burst. It was clear that Ireland was heading that way for a quite a few years but people choose to ignore it. I now see 
clients often under the age of 30 with up to 10 homes with negative equity and having to advise them to file for bankruptcy. At least they can start again afer 12 months in NI....ROI 12 years. Properties often bought with 100% mortgages egged on by local bank managers keen to meet their ever rising targets. Things will get better but we all have a part to play in it.....that's my pennies worth anyway.


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## NorthDrum (5 Apr 2009)

callaghanj said:


> Neither an estate or broker I'm afraid !! I meant it as a light hearted comment.....was thinking more of friends of mine who went on and on about house prices rising and often laughed at me when_ I mentioned there could be a crash._ I was training as an insolvency practioner in London during the recesion of the early 90's and saw first hand what happened when the bubble burst. It was clear that Ireland was heading that way for a quite a few years but people choose to ignore it. I now see
> clients often under the age of 30 with up to 10 homes with negative equity and having to advise them to file for bankruptcy. At least they can start again afer 12 months in NI....ROI 12 years. Properties often bought with 100% mortgages egged on by local bank managers keen to meet their ever rising targets. Things will get better but we all have a part to play in it.....that's my pennies worth anyway.


 
Agreed, I was being sarcastic when asking your profession to be honest. 

Anybody trying to be positive on this website generally gets accused of having an agenda (by people who are allergic to positive talk). . . . 

People under 30 with 10 homes . . . Seriously !!! , thats mad . . .


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## callaghanj (5 Apr 2009)

Low interst rates will help too ...when i bought my first home in England in 87 interest rates were considered low but by the early 90's they had risen to 15%....at least we dont have to contend with that this time around though in the longer term we may see a sharp rise in interest rates....if the printing of money or QA takes effect....you have been warned....this could cause another set back for the housing market....a bit of gloom to take the shine of the earlier optimism!!


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

Howitzer said:


> I find it hard to reconcile the positivity you've displayed on this topic with your thoughts elsewhere.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 
Hi Howitzer,

Could you point out my 'blind optimism'. I have merely asked that if the ban is in place it should be in place for both sides of the argument so as not to show any bias from AAM. 

As far as i know you are around here a while and I would presume that you cannot lump me into a positive at all costs category because I do live in the real world and believe there is plenty of room for reasoned debate.


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

charliemacck said:


> Are you honestly trying to tell people outside the AAM moderator bubble that people have been banned for talking up the property market, but not vice versa?


 
I have already been cautioned for speaking about mods decisions so can't comment.


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

Thomas22 said:


> That is strange logic. The site should reconsider the ban because you think things have levelled off and now it is important to share that knowledge.


 
The key word in my word was 'possibily' meaning that if such a thing were to happen wouldn't it be good to acknowledge it or even to counter the suggestion. If some people think that it nhas levelled off and want to buy now because of this then it allows those who have proof of otherwise to come forward and vice versa. 
My logic stems from the fact that I don't have all of the facts and neither do you, but two heads are better than one and all that. 
We cant close the door on possibilities.


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

Askar said:


> I don't find it at all strange that estate agents and mortgage brokers are posting 'buy' recommendations on the basis of 'if it feels right' then its right for you. Nor, indeed, do I find it strange that they can post long indignant rants if you raise any question marks over the objectivity of their advice or just take an opposite view.
> 
> I am also not surprised if they particularly hate any suggestion that they are completely disqualified from commenting on a question like the one posted by the OP by virtue of the fact that their livelihoods depend on people deciding to buy houses, and will use all and any argument to promote buyers in the market.
> 
> ...


 

EA's and brokers are VI's thas a well used argument that at times is warranted especially when they blatantly talk things up, but have we not gone past that stage. Are there VI's of a different nature here that are not as easily identified? People who will delight at the drop in prices and need it to drop more and more (possibly so they can make a killing themselves). Do some talk things down without fail and refuse to accept that there could be any hope of a levelling of prices let alone a recovery of any type. I personally think there are some like this and their arguments bring nothing to the debate as they are unwilling to listen.


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## Howitzer (6 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> Hi Howitzer,
> 
> Could you point out my 'blind optimism'. I have merely asked that if the ban is in place it should be in place for both sides of the argument so as not to show any bias from AAM.
> 
> As far as i know you are around here a while and I would presume that you cannot lump me into a positive at all costs category because I do live in the real world and believe there is plenty of room for reasoned debate.


I was replying to NorthDrum. Sorry for any confusion or the insinuation that your views aren't rational or balanced as it was not my intention.


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

Howitzer said:


> I was replying to NorthDrum. Sorry for any confusion or the insinuation that your views aren't rational or balanced as it was not my intention.


 

Fair enough


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## Askar (6 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> EA's and brokers are VI's thas a well used argument that at times is warranted especially when they blatantly talk things up, but have we not gone past that stage. Are there VI's of a different nature here that are not as easily identified? People who will delight at the drop in prices and need it to drop more and more (possibly so they can make a killing themselves). Do some talk things down without fail and refuse to accept that there could be any hope of a levelling of prices let alone a recovery of any type. I personally think there are some like this and their arguments bring nothing to the debate as they are unwilling to listen.


 
Possibly. However, for most people this will be their biggest investment and suggesting that such a decision be based on a 'feeling' and attacking contrary views as unpatriotic and labelling them as the 'armageddon brigade' is hardly representing a balanced perspective; especially where these views are being expressed by VIs who have a financial imperative to ensure that people do not defer their decision to buy. 

I see that those mad people in daft are reporting further declines in asking prices in the last quarter. They must have signed up to the armageddon brigade  Oh, and I noticed some pretty upbeat talk in yesterday's papers from an Estate Agent selling apartments at 'knock down' prices close to Finglas. Plus ca change.......


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## charliemacck (6 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> Are there VI's of a different nature here that are not as easily identified? People who will delight at the drop in prices and need it to drop more and more (possibly so they can make a killing themselves).


 
A complete distortion of the term "vested interest". 60% of the Irish Times' *total revenue* comes from estate agents; do you think that a few isolated people who'd like prices to drop come anywhere near that kind of power? That's what "vested interest" means.


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

charliemacck said:


> A complete distortion of the term "vested interest". 60% of the Irish Times' *total revenue* comes from estate agents; do you think that a few isolated people who'd like prices to drop come anywhere near that kind of power? That's what "vested interest" means.


 
Is that still the case and does the times cover the whole country or primarily Dublin? People are more likely to read posts than full property supplements, the times have changed as has the attitude. Its unusual to keep referring to the past when the landscape has changed so dramatically.


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## NorthDrum (6 Apr 2009)

Askar said:


> Possibly. However, for most people this will be their biggest investment and suggesting that such a decision be based on a 'feeling' and attacking contrary views as unpatriotic and labelling them as the 'armageddon brigade' is hardly representing a balanced perspective; especially where these views are being expressed by VIs who have a financial imperative to ensure that people do not defer their decision to buy.
> 
> I see that those mad people in daft are reporting further declines in asking prices in the last quarter. They must have signed up to the armageddon brigade  Oh, and I noticed some pretty upbeat talk in yesterday's papers from an Estate Agent selling apartments at 'knock down' prices close to Finglas. Plus ca change.......


 
Seriously, your completely ignorant and unwilling to actually understand (or just unable) posts posts that try and give balanced opinions on this topic.

Never said buy a house simply because it feels good or that if you think theres bad news out there you are an Armageddon fan. Once again, your incapable of actually understanding balanced views. The George W Bush school of thinking "your either with us or against us" . . 



Im not going into it anymore then that because anybody reading this thread will see way you have simply picked out a few words in each post and skewered them . . .


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

Askar said:


> Possibly. However, for most people this will be their biggest investment and suggesting that such a decision be based on a 'feeling' and attacking contrary views as unpatriotic and labelling them as the 'armageddon brigade' is hardly representing a balanced perspective; especially where these views are being expressed by VIs who have a financial imperative to ensure that people do not defer their decision to buy.
> 
> I see that those mad people in daft are reporting further declines in asking prices in the last quarter. They must have signed up to the armageddon brigade  Oh, and I noticed some pretty upbeat talk in yesterday's papers from an Estate Agent selling apartments at 'knock down' prices close to Finglas. Plus ca change.......


I presume your armageddon quotes are aimed at someone else, they are misleading when addressing me as I haven't used them. As regards a 'feeling' that is often the case with for instance a couple who want to take the next step forward, we don't always base our decisions on cold hard cash. Sometimes people want a sense of ownership, of taking control of their own surroundings so a house makes perfect sense to them. I balance my view by saying 'some times' and 'some people' because believe it or not we are not all wired the same.


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## Askar (6 Apr 2009)

NorthDrum said:


> Seriously, your completely ignorant and unwilling to actually understand (or just unable) posts posts that try and give balanced opinions on this topic.
> 
> Never said buy a house simply because it feels good or that if you think theres bad news out there you are an Armageddon fan. Once again, your incapable of actually understanding balanced views. The George W Bush school of thinking "your either with us or against us" . .
> 
> ...


 
This response is completely true to form. You vindicate everything I originally said. Your only recourse is to personal attack.

Perhaps you should extend your perjorative ranting to calling me a fanatical jihadist or some other rubbish. You have not produced one iota of balanced view, nor addressed the fact of oversupply, falling demand and continued falling prices. 

You make money from people buying houses and to consider that your view is in anyway balanced and not vested is completely disingenuous. It is akin to having Seany Fitz suggesting that there is no conflict with him running the Regulators office.  

At this point, I am going to bow out of the 'discussion'.


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## charliemacck (6 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> Is that still the case


 
You tell me.



> does the times cover the whole country or primarily Dublin?


 
The Irish Times is a national newspaper.

Do you think that, for example, the Irish Independent or Sunday Tribune follow completely different financial models to the Irish Times, and don't rely on property advertising for a substantial portion of their revenue? 

Certainly, the Tribune takes it property advertising seriously enough to sack its Business Editor. Richard Delevan, when he remarked negatively on the housing market, linking it to the fact that Ken MacDonald couldn't sell his house:

[broken link removed]



> People are more likely to read posts than full property supplements


 
Are you suggesting that postings to internet forums are more widely read than the property supplements of national newspapers?



> the times have changed as has the attitude.


 
Are you suggesting that VIs such as estate agents no longer have influence with the media, and that's we're some kind of whole new socialist paradigm where advertising has no influence on editorial?


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## NorthDrum (6 Apr 2009)

Askar said:


> This response is completely true to form. You vindicate everything I originally said. Your only recourse is to personal attack.
> 
> Perhaps you should extend your perjorative ranting to calling me a fanatical jihadist or some other rubbish. You have not produced one iota of balanced view, nor addressed the fact of oversupply, falling demand and continued falling prices.
> 
> ...


 
Bow out after offering nothing in the way of a balanced discussion . . .

I simply tried out lowering my level to yours by ignoring any valid points you made, while fun, its less satisfying then accepting other points and discussing them further. 

You dont actually reply to any of my points, you simply just call them bias and just throw out other disjointed facts or points that you couldnt even properly discuss. (kinda like Mary Coughlin, shes great at reading off a pre made statement but ask her to delve deeper on her views and she hasnt a clue).

And by the way those Daft figures are based on the national average house price falling from €344,000 to €281,000 since the peak in 2007. This is only a 19% drop in value. I have been talking about factoring in between 40% - 60% decrease in house values. Some of the statistics available havent even fully factored in my "positive try to get everybody to splash out on property" predictions. What people ask for and what they should realistically expect are two totally differant things . . . 

If you actually understood my posts you would see that I wasnt simply saying "alls well, buy buy buy". But then again Im not saying, put your money under your mattress, close all the doors, trust nobody and pray for the love of god that this recession doesnt kill you . . . 

The very fact that some people have replied here, who arent EA's or MB's, looking positively at the housing sector, (which you dont even awknowledge) only further debunks your delusional V.I theory that other doom and gloom merchants prescribe to.

The truth is , Things are bad right now. Things could be bad for the next couple of years. House prices, realistically have gone down more then even todays statistics have shown. There are very very good deals out in the marketplace right now. Predicting a House price collapse (if you accept that 40% value decrease is not the tip of the iceberg) is simply scaremongering. It is always a possibility but is DEFINANTLY not a probobility.

There is a huge demand for houses, but not enough money in the banks to meet this demand. There are a huge amount of houses for sale because people cant get money. People are also afraid to buy because of what their neighbours are saying about the end of the world "economics" style. They forget that markets and economies have gone through recessions and crashes before, and have eventually recovered.

Builders have cut down dramitically the new houses they are building. People have cut down on expenses they dont need. People will , in this country, sooner save for a deposit on a family house, then save for a car. 

Unemployment is going up hugely, as companies are preparing themselves for tough times ahead. This is actually a good thing long term because these companies are factoring in the bad times now and our economy can bring out measures sooner to try to get other jobs into the country. (note for simpletons - No Im not saying unemployment is good) . These negative things need to happen before markets can recover.

But notice that everything points to companies, governments and property markets factoring in all the bad things (in fact over factoring them in) to try to help us get over this crisis quicker. 

Times are tough and could get tougher. How we recover will depend an awful lot on how the U.S. and E.U recover as a country. 

By all means, continue to save if you are worried about the state of the country and dont want to take the plunge or risk that house prices could continue to drastically drop. Buying a house at anytime is stressful. My house has lost alot of its value (at least a third) and is in negative equity. In hindsight of course I wouldnt of bought it had I known this would happen, but I have a job and can afford the repayments and wasnt planning on moving for many years. 

Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen, one economist will say we are near the worst of the property crash, another might say this is just the beginning.

Am I upset . . Of Course . . . 

Do I lose sleep over it . . Honestly no because its more important for me to keep my job so I can afford it and anyways, its only worth something when I am looking to sell it.

If I was buying today I would consider it a tough one to call. Should I view todays prices as a bargain in comparison to what people paid at the top of the bubble . . Or . . . do I say I am "catching a falling Knife" and that prices will PLUMMIT further. Thats a personal decision that only individuals can make after weighing up their personal desires with the information that they have and how they interpret it, regarding the current economic troubles.


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## Wiggles (6 Apr 2009)

I have to admit I can now see the reasons why the mod's closed this sort of thread in the first place. It has already started to descend into personal attacks.

The real shame here is that when places like AAM can't discuss the matter in a balanced light people head to forums like the propertypin and only get their very one sided view on the market.


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

Wiggles said:


> I have to admit I can now see the reasons why the mod's closed this sort of thread in the first place. It has already started to descend into personal attacks.
> 
> The real shame here is that when places like AAM can't discuss the matter in a balanced light people head to forums like the propertypin and only get their very one sided view on the market.


 
Why would a ban be needed and not individual bans or slaps on the wrist? Isn't that what all the other threads have happen? It will only benefit people when we start making reasoned arguments based on fact or calculated estimates rather than simply indulging in smearing the reputation of those you disagree with.


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

charliemacck said:


> You tell me.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 
The times is a national paper but most counties outside of dublin will go with local papers because they are cheaper and target their specific audience.
I would never have wasted my clients money on using the times so I have no experience in dealing with them.
In Limerick it is the Limerick leader and they run a property supplement that is financed seperately from the paper and having read the editorials for the last 12 months they haven't papered over the cracks. To be honest most EA's that I know believe its better to be open and honest about the state of things otherwise you lose credibility and you won't sell anything just by saying alls well in the world.

I would read internet forums before I would go through a supplement. 

Regarding your assertion that EA's influence the media, i would say that there is very little influence if any. Most EA firms are either on their knees or are operating at very low levels and advertising is one of those things that has to be scrutinised to see its benefit. Alot of EA's carry huge ad bills and when vendors don't pay up it really does add up. EA's cant simply do blanket coverage week on week anymore.


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## Wiggles (6 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> Why would a ban be needed and not individual bans or slaps on the wrist? Isn't that what all the other threads have happen? It will only benefit people when we start making reasoned arguments based on fact or calculated estimates rather than simply indulging in smearing the reputation of those you disagree with.



To be honest I was playing devil's advocate. I would love to see the ban lifted and a section like the one created for the April fools gag. My point was it is clear how the ban was justified in the first place from seeing how quickly this thread descended.

As more and more people look to forums like this I think AAM would be a great place for balanced discussions as opposed to other websites out there.


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## Firefly (6 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> To be honest most EA's that I know believe its better to be open and honest about the state of things otherwise you lose credibility and you won't sell anything just by saying alls well in the world.


 
You're having a laugh surely? Gangsters the lot of them!


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## NorthDrum (6 Apr 2009)

Its very like the Public v private sector debates really.

There are many people that believe you have to think one way or the other and take it very personally when you disagree with their opinions.

I thought this would be a great debate to have at the moment. It started out as a discussion and then turned into an attack on estate agents and mortgage advisors. 

I regret responding like with like, to the verbal insults questioning my motives for posting positive opinions on the industry, but its difficult when you have people who wont actually properly discuss or expand on their views, instead they prefer to simply throw mud at your suggestions . . .


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

Firefly said:


> You're having a laugh surely? Gangsters the lot of them!


 
every last one.


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## charliemacck (6 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> The times is a national paper but most counties outside of dublin will go with local papers because they are cheaper and target their specific audience.
> In Limerick it is the Limerick leader and they run a property supplement that is financed seperately from the paper and having read the editorials for the last 12 months they haven't papered over the cracks.


 
Good on the Leader, if so, but with a circulation of 23,000, it's a blip taken in the context of the failure of Irish newspapers on behalf of the consumer.



> I would read internet forums before I would go through a supplement.


 
Presumably most estate agents don't see it that way. Otherise, they would not be handing over millions of euro to newspapers in order to print nice fluffy property supplement in which hard-bitten hacks such as, er, Isabel Morton, complain about first-time buyers having the audacity to ask tough questions to estate agents. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2009/0402/1224243846428.html) Instead, they would be giving those millions of euro to anonymous posters on internet forums.



> Regarding your assertion that EA's influence the media, i would say that there is very little influence if any.


 
Do you really believe that the single industry responsible for funding a huge proportion of newspaper revenue has no influence on them? That property supplements - which are not marked as funded or commerical or advertorials, but actual news - just happen to be completely positive about property by sheer coincidence?  That a newspaper would sack a senior editor for a wisecrack at any Joe Blogg?

You are delightfully innocent.

You say:

"most EA's that I know believe its better to be open and honest about the state of things otherwise you lose credibility and you won't sell anything just by saying alls well in the world."

I'm willing to offer €50 to the charity of your choice if you can show me either a press release or a newspaper article by any of the major estate agents that said, at any point, "now" is not a good time to buy.


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## MrMan (6 Apr 2009)

> Good on the Leader, if so, but with a circulation of 23,000, it's a blip taken in the context of the failure of Irish newspapers on behalf of the consumer.


I think it is closer to 55,000 but thats not the point, the point is that there are so many sub sections outside of Dublin to also consider when making statements about the 'market'.



> Presumably most estate agents don't see it that way. Otherise, they would not be handing over millions of euro to newspapers in order to print nice fluffy property supplement in which hard-bitten hacks such as, er, Isabel Morton, complain about first-time buyers having the audacity to ask tough questions to estate agents. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/....html) Instead, they would be giving those millions of euro to anonymous posters on internet forums.


 
the link is broken but I'm not doubting the story. My point regarding supplements is that every week you will see property and every week you will find it difficult to see real drops because vendors dont want that and they ultimately pay for advertising, so people lose interest because everyone else is telling them that prices have dropped by x%. When property was the in thing in this country the supplements were extremely popular, but do you think people are scouring over them or are they more likely to be checking out the junk mail sent by aldi and lidl? Like i said the landscape has changed so the attitude towards sales has to change too. 





> > Do you really believe that the single industry responsible for funding a huge proportion of newspaper revenue has no influence on them? That property supplements - which are not marked as funded or commerical or advertorials, but actual news - just happen to be completely positive about property by sheer coincidence? That a newspaper would sack a senior editor for a wisecrack at any Joe Blogg?
> >
> > You are delightfully innocent.
> 
> ...


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## charliemacck (6 Apr 2009)

> Surely you can see that the mood has changed and the level of gloom being printed can mean only that there is no current influence there from EA's.



Ah, the "level of gloom" as indicated by what appear to be weekly urgings by the newspapers to tell us that we've hit the bottom of the market - all together now, children, NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!

The only thing this indicates is that newspapers, while happy enough to hype up the market for their financiers during the bubble, are not about to make themselves appear completely ludicrous by doing a Chemical Ali (Property Tom?) and tell people that prices are still going up while they're actually going down. But you seem to think that this indicates not merely a new reality on their part, but active pessismism, working away at the nation's vital bodily fluids...



MrMan said:


> When did i say anything about no not being a good time to buy. Now is a time when buyers hold the cards, they can try for a bargain or walk away and wait for another one. Your mixing up being open and honest with telling things exactly as you see them.


 
Ah, right - it's always a good time to buy, it's never a bad time to buy, there's no such thing as objective reality, and matter is simply energy condensed to a slow vibration.


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## Askar (6 Apr 2009)

NorthDrum said:


> Its very like the Public v private sector debates really.
> 
> There are many people that believe you have to think one way or the other and take it very personally when you disagree with their opinions.
> 
> ...


 
Your posts are hilarious on so many levels.


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## mf1 (6 Apr 2009)

Well talk about spitting out the dummy!!!!

Do you all think you could take it down a tone and try and play nice? Please, gentlemen. 

The nasty personal comments are really more a reflection of the posters making them than the people they are directed at.  And the word trolling adequately describes a lot of the posts in recent times. 

In the end of the day, it is for responsible adults to make their own responsible decisions as to whether or not they buy now. This country has such a well developed sense of victimhood and blame gaming that that very simple concept seems to have been lost.  

Vested interests or no vested interests, it does boil down to personal responsibility. 

mf


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## MrMan (7 Apr 2009)

> Ah, the "level of gloom" as indicated by what appear to be weekly urgings by the newspapers to tell us that we've hit the bottom of the market - all together now, children, NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!
> 
> The only thing this indicates is that newspapers, while happy enough to hype up the market for their financiers during the bubble, are not about to make themselves appear completely ludicrous by doing a Chemical Ali (Property Tom?) and tell people that prices are still going up while they're actually going down. But you seem to think that this indicates not merely a new reality on their part, but active pessismism, working away at the nation's vital bodily fluids...


 
The gloom is a reality that is why it is being printed. The boom was also a reality, should papers not have printed that people queued overnight to buy houses or that developments were sold out in hours? You can pick out instances where editors lost their sense of balance but was it possible to ignore the property boom, do you think it was the newspapers job to talk down the boom or to report what was actually going on i.e sales continued to rise.

As regard the weekly urgings to tell us we have reached rock bottom, we must be reading different papers and certainly not watching the news.




> Ah, right - it's always a good time to buy, it's never a bad time to buy, there's no such thing as objective reality, and matter is simply energy condensed to a slow vibration.


 
I understand that you may hold my views in contempt but if you stand back and re-read my comments you will clearly see that I said now the buyers hold the cards they can try for a* 'bargain'* or *'hold off'. *If you think there is another 20% drop on the cards then build that into your offer, if you think houses will be going for little or nothing then sit back and take that risk. Its a risk no matter what trying to time a market, but some people will be willing to try now because they *want their own home.*

I don't mind defending my position on the matter as I feel that I am being open to argument, but I would prefer if we could have a clear debate where we do not twist each others word in a political style mud sling. It offers nothing to anyone and is a bit tiresome.


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## Bronte (7 Apr 2009)

Mrman has there ever been a time not to buy?


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## NorthDrum (7 Apr 2009)

mf1 said:


> Well talk about spitting out the dummy!!!!
> 
> Do you all think you could take it down a tone and try and play nice? Please, gentlemen.
> 
> ...


 
Great post . .

Just learned what a Trolling is, feel a bit silly now for replying to some of them . . .


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## MrMan (7 Apr 2009)

Bronte said:


> Mrman has there ever been a time not to buy?


 
There can't be a general answer to this because nobody is the same. Right now if you have little or no savings and your job isn't ultra secure then no matter what the deal is you are not in a good position to take that step, but while this is the case for many people there are others who can take advantage of the current market and try to get themselves a good deal providing they want a home. 

It is not possible to take a general view because not everyone has the same persepective when it comes to home ownership. For some they will take great pleasure in knowing their neighbour paid more for their home and for others they will want a particular area to raise a family and that time is now, so with all of the variables to consider there will always be people looking to buy although it wont be the right time for all of them.


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## Kemo_Sabe (7 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> To be honest most EA's that I know believe its better to be open and honest about the state of things otherwise you lose credibility and you won't sell anything just by saying alls well in the world.


 
pure comedy gold MrMan

[broken link removed]


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## Bronte (7 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> There can't be a general answer to this because nobody is the same.


 Do you think that in a property market with rapidly dropping values one should wait?


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## mf1 (7 Apr 2009)

Bronte said:


> Do you think that in a property market with rapidly dropping values one should wait?



No. I think MrMans post was very articulate on this. 

I have clients who are very specific about where they want to live. If they see the property that they particularly want, at a price they are willing to pay, they should and will buy it. 

If it was me, (middle aged, debt free) and I had money, I would buy my dream house now. I would not care about prices ( be they declining or increasing) because I would have no intention of ever moving ever again. As it happens, I don't want to move, ( I can't afford to anyway) my house is not the dream house BUT its very good. In a few years time, someone my age/in my position would simply be unable to borrow because of their age.

Someone younger has a great deal more flexibility. 

So, no to your question.  
mf


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## Bronte (7 Apr 2009)

mf1 said:


> I have clients who are very specific about where they want to live. If they see the property that they particularly want, at a price they are willing to pay, they should and will buy it.


  That neatly sums up property buying.  Which going back to the OP's question is the perfect answer.


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## Kine (7 Apr 2009)

Bronte said:


> That neatly sums up property buying. Which going back to the OP's question is the perfect answer.


 
Apart from some trolling, is that not what the general consensus was on the thread anyway? 

How much is the house you want worth? As much as you're willing to pay!


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## charliemacck (7 Apr 2009)

It amazes me that the estate agents in the thread seem to think that those who say they are not completely objective about the property market are whackos or conspiracy theorists or just bad people. I'm sorry, but it's just pointing out human nature, not implying they are evil(tm). 

An estate agent can be no more objective about selling property than a butcher can be about selling meat. Noone expects to go into a butchers to get honest objective advice about the health implications of eating meat, or to be told "well, I probably shouldn't sell you this, I notice you've been eating beef more than three times a week". For a butcher, It's Always The Right time To Buy Meat.


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## NorthDrum (7 Apr 2009)

Kine said:


> Apart from some trolling, is that not what the general consensus was on the thread anyway?
> 
> How much is the house you want worth? As much as you're willing to pay!


 
It is pretty much what most people believe. Difficult to really know what way the markets will go, but at the end of the day any financial decision made is based on personal and financial criteria for each individual.


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## MrMan (7 Apr 2009)

Kemo_Sabe said:


> pure comedy gold MrMan
> 
> [broken link removed]


 

Yourself and Charlie are too generous with your remarks they really do make for informed adult debate.

As for the Sherry's poll, it is what it is, a poll generated by a property firm, I can't say if the findings are correct or not as I don't know the sample size or demographic used, do you? When I say that agents that I know believe its best to be open about the state of things I stand by that. There is no hiding place and if anyone wants to come out the other side of this recession with a reputation in tact then they need to react to the change in the market. 
If you go to a car dealer they will tell you that the market is dead so you will get the car at a good price. They wont say that the market is picking up etc cause you could open up any daily paper and say 'wrong'.

EA's are in the business of sales but to make sales you have to realise where the power is and its with the buyer.


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## MrMan (7 Apr 2009)

charliemacck said:


> It amazes me that the estate agents in the thread seem to think that those who say they are not completely objective about the property market are whackos or conspiracy theorists or just bad people. I'm sorry, but it's just pointing out human nature, not implying they are evil(tm).
> 
> An estate agent can be no more objective about selling property than a butcher can be about selling meat. Noone expects to go into a butchers to get honest objective advice about the health implications of eating meat, or to be told "well, I probably shouldn't sell you this, I notice you've been eating beef more than three times a week". For a butcher, It's Always The Right time To Buy Meat.


 
I would feel as a home owner and someone who has dealt in the business that I can see both sides of the story. I feel also that questioning someones credibility purely on grounds of employment makes no sense. If I displayed blind optimism and did not leave myself open to the notion that things could be very bad for a long time then you could say I wasn't being objective. I am more than willing to listen to reasoned responses because I believe you learn more from being wrong then right. 
I also don't believe that all of those that post about the continued drops they predict are open to the possibility that they are wrong, not wackos simply tunnel visioned.


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## charliemacck (7 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> I feel also that questioning someones credibility purely on grounds of employment makes no sense.


 
So, in a discussion on the health implications of eating meat, the fact that someone is a butcher has no bearing?


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## Askar (7 Apr 2009)

charliemacck said:


> So, in a discussion on the health implications of eating meat, the fact that someone is a butcher has no bearing?


 
No. The estate agent, conveyancing lawyer and mortgage brokers consider such accusations of conflict of interest as trolling. 

I think one can only answer the OP by considering the following:
1. Most people move within 7 years of first purchase;
2. Few if anyone buys their 'dream' home;
3. The current economic climate and its impact on the property market; and
4. significant risk of negative equity.

As a hypothetical buyer in the market you will likely want to move again at some stage. You do not want to be in negative equity as this will be a noose around your neck in the current uncertain economic times we live in. It would also reduce you mobility if their is a pick up in another country and you wish to emigrate (or even relocate within the jurisdiction). There was a figure of 160,000 negative equity mortgage holders mentioned in the papers some time ago. This may well have increased. 

If you find your 'dream' home you need to ask yourself what is the likelihood that its value will decrease in the next 12 months. Daft report illustrates extent of massive oversupply (there was a 5% reduction in oversupply but this could be explained as people simply giving up on trying to sell their property, which many have) and continuing reduction in asking prices. With mortgages getting scarcer and unemployment continuing to increase at unprecedented levels demand in the next 12 months is also likely to get weaker. Economist such as Ahearne point out that property markets (like most markets) are manic in nature so downturns can be exacerbated beyond sustainable prices. He also points to 40%/60% declines from peak to trough. Asking prices have not yet reached this point afaik. Actual selling prices are likely to also decline where asking prices are declining.

If, like me, you would conclude from the foregoing that price levels likely to decline in next 12 months then it would make more sense not to buy and continue to save (and perhaps try and benefit from softening rental market). This would mean that you would have a lower mortgage and more savings when you eventually decided to buy your 'dream' house, or indeed, you might be able to buy a dreamier house for the same money in a better location in a years time.

For such a large investment decision, the OP should avoid advices such as 'if its right for you' and estate agents et al have been saying since 2007 that there was 'value' to be had in the market.


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## MrMan (7 Apr 2009)

charliemacck said:


> So, in a discussion on the health implications of eating meat, the fact that someone is a butcher has no bearing?


 
I would probably listen to a nutritionist, doctor and then hear what the butcher has to say. The fact that you know they are a butcher allows you to enter a caveat when listening to their advice but it would be churlish to completely disregard their comments on the grounds that you believe that you can only have integrity if you are not associated financially with the topic.


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## MrMan (7 Apr 2009)

> No. The estate agent, conveyancing lawyer and mortgage brokers consider such accusations of conflict of interest as trolling.


 
Well i have asked for reasoned debate and have offered to listen with an open mind yet you continue to return to this nonsense.



> If, like me, you would conclude from the foregoing that price levels likely to decline in next 12 months then it would make more sense not to buy and continue to save (and perhaps try and benefit from softening rental market). This would mean that you would have a lower mortgage and more savings when you eventually decided to buy your 'dream' house, or indeed, you might be able to buy a dreamier house for the same money in a better location in a years time.


 
The key in all of this is the words *if and might. *I'm not saying you are wrong but the very fact that you use these words means that on some level you must be aware that these levels of drops may not happen. it is important to look at all sides. A buyer could also try to factor in any perceived drops in their asking price.

As regards the daft reports, there are many house duplicated on daft with different agents some can be on 5 or 6 times while there is indeed an over supply it is important to note that these figures are inflated.


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## NorthDrum (7 Apr 2009)

Are people saying here that Estate Agents and Mortgage advisors are the last people to ask in relation to property prices? 

Fair enough . . Thats YOUR *opinion *. . 

We cant trust statistics that are in mediums that may have their own agenda's.? Ok, thats fine - For our own records, which medium doesnt have an agenda?

Thats YOUR *opinion*.

And can somebody comment on the daft figures that suggest house prices have gone down 19% since the peak at 2007 . . This doesnt really sound right in comparison to the great decline in prices that we are all aware of. Or is it just only certain figures daft post are relevant?

I suppose its a choice on what a person chooses to take out of the figures really . . 

Ok, so the advice here is . . .

Dont trust statistics in the media or by any V.I groups, unless they are telling you information opposite to what they actually stand to benefit by, automatically assume they are there to dupe you into buying something you shouldnt. Of course, if the statistics back up your opinion, they are relevant and can be used to silence doubters . . .

If a butcher says, "that meats come from the cleanest farm" he obviously bought it from the dirtiest farm in Ireland and isnt concerned of losing his health and safety licence (afterall, every professional is out to get you and there are no repurcussions for their actions) . . 

If a broker can sell you any product, they will, theres no way they are concerned with the fact that the Financial Ombudsman sides in favour of clients in a majority of cases. And anyways, they dont care about getting refferals from clients for the service they offer (a bit silly on their part considering its the best and cheapest source of long term marketing they can do, those crazy dogs) . . . . . .

Oh and buying a house is about timing the market. Dont buy it when price is going down, wait till its rising. Dont worry about renting, its prudent to wait until everybody else is doing it, dont go with your instinct or if you find the house of your dreams, everybody, absoultely everybody should hold off buying . . Simple as . . .




For those of you logging in . . .My post above is my attempt to understand the "open minded" *opinions* of some of the posters here who are "passionate" protesters that their *opinions* should mean more then others . . .


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## Senna (7 Apr 2009)

mf1 said:


> I would not care about prices ( be they declining or increasing) because I would have no intention of ever moving ever again.



Thats fine if your paying cash and not taking out a mortgage that you could be paying for the next 40 years.
The majority of people asking for advice on here will be buying a mortgage.  If that person buys now with no intension to move, they are still paying the mortgage on the purchase amount, future price is irrelevant.  But what is very relevant is the cost of the mortgage every month.  A 20% drop in prices on a 300k house can equate to 300e less every month for the next 30 years.  



MrMan said:


> As regards the daft reports, there are many house duplicated on daft with different agents some can be on 5 or 6 times while there is indeed an over supply it is important to note that these figures are inflated.



How many estates are listed on daft that have 20/30/100 houses for sale but only one advert?  There is no way that daft figures are inflated, how many estate agents dont even use daft? the biggest one in the NW dont.

The 2006 census showed 300k (350k some reports) house unoccupied, of course not all are for sale, but many will be forced onto the market the longer the recession lasts.
The current supply of houses could easily satisfy market needs for the next 5 years (not current market, but a functioning one).


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## MrMan (8 Apr 2009)

Senna said:


> How many estates are listed on daft that have 20/30/100 houses for sale but only one advert? There is no way that daft figures are inflated, how many estate agents dont even use daft? the biggest one in the NW dont.
> 
> The 2006 census showed 300k (350k some reports) house unoccupied, of course not all are for sale, but many will be forced onto the market the longer the recession lasts.
> The current supply of houses could easily satisfy market needs for the next 5 years (not current market, but a functioning one).


 
That is also true, but IPAV members for example only had to pay €500 for the year last year to advertise all of their property on daft. That meant that all of those agents could advertise property for little or no cost on the website. It is a popular website and even those estates that you mention will be advertised by 4/5 different agents, I don't see how you can categorically state that there is no way that the figures are inflated.


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## corkgal (8 Apr 2009)

I'd look for a good rental property with a landlord you find easy to deal with. rents are down too. You can probably afford a nicer place renting and save until you are sure the market is on the way up again.

If you do buy, be aware of all the other costs too, fitting floors, furniture, it all really adds up. There is very little return on it. If you buy new build and spend 40k fitting it out, I doubt you will see the 40k again.

In my opinion the best value in the future will be in older houses in nice areas. These tend to need work and banks will probably not lend to do them up. Often they are estate sales and people need to sell them fast. If you have some cash saved you could end up living in a very nice neighborhood in a few years.


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## Firefly (8 Apr 2009)

corkgal said:


> in my opinion the best value in the future will be in older houses in nice areas. These tend to need work and banks will probably not lend to do them up. Often they are estate sales and people need to sell them fast. If you have some cash saved you could end up living in a very nice neighborhood in a few years.


 
+1


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## MrMan (8 Apr 2009)

corkgal said:


> If you do buy, be aware of all the other costs too, fitting floors, furniture, it all really adds up. There is very little return on it. If you buy new build and spend 40k fitting it out, I doubt you will see the 40k again.


 
That would be some fit out 40k!. If you fit the floors they will remain, when you buy the furniture its yours to bring with you if you move. If you are looking at new builds most of them are including flooring now aswell. 

Renting suits some people and doesn't sit well with others. When viewing a property people often ask are the neighbours owner occupiers or renters meaning renters are less desirable, it doesn't make much sense but it is an ingrained attitude.

There are other factors such as security of tenure and being your own boss in that if you want to change colours or hang pictures, knock a wall, build a garage, install an alarm, etc you don't need permission and your not paying for someone elses benefit if you are an owner.


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## Askar (8 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> The key in all of this is the words *if and might. *I'm not saying you are wrong but the very fact that you use these words means that on some level you must be aware that these levels of drops may not happen. it is important to look at all sides. A buyer could also try to factor in any perceived drops in their asking price.
> 
> 
> As regards the daft reports, there are many house duplicated on daft with different agents some can be on 5 or 6 times while there is indeed an over supply it is important to note that these figures are inflated.


 
Where did I use the word might? I concluded based on my analysis that prices (both asking and selling) will continue to decline. I am not equivocating. What exactly are you saying? Do you take issue with any of the issues I have raised? Can you present any argument as to why someone (who will more than likely want to move within the next 7 years and will be affected by current economic recession) should buy? Is possibility of negative equity not a serious issue? Are my facts wrong? You say it is imprtant to look at all sides. Well you are free to present the argument as to why and in what circumstances it is a good idea to buy.

So what is your point in relation to daft figures? You accept there is oversupply. What are you saying is the trend? Is oversupply going to continue? Is demand going to pick up? Are banks not going to make lending more scarce? Why should these factors not be considered in a persons decision to buy?


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## mf1 (8 Apr 2009)

"Well you are free to present the argument as to why and in what circumstances it is a good idea to buy."

Not everyone is a first time buyer. I have older clients who would love to trade down to more manageable properties, divorced people who want to sell the family home and each buy their own place, divorced people where one is raising a mortgage and buying the other out, middle aged people who, because of their age, have only a year or so to go before they  will be unable to raise a mortgage................

mf


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## Askar (8 Apr 2009)

mf1 said:


> "Well you are free to present the argument as to why and in what circumstances it is a good idea to buy."
> 
> Not everyone is a first time buyer. I have older clients who would love to trade down to more manageable properties, divorced people who want to sell the family home and each buy their own place, divorced people where one is raising a mortgage and buying the other out, middle aged people who, because of their age, have only a year or so to go before they will be unable to raise a mortgage................
> 
> mf


 
Good examples. I am aware of people in two of those categories. However, as the OP has not indicated any imperative requiring him/her to sell and buy, my analysis did not factor that in. So assuming no imperatives should the OP not have regard to the current market and economic conditions?


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## MrMan (8 Apr 2009)

Askar said:


> Where did I use the word might? I concluded based on my analysis that prices (both asking and selling) will continue to decline. I am not equivocating. What exactly are you saying? Do you take issue with any of the issues I have raised? Can you present any argument as to why someone (who will more than likely want to move within the next 7 years and will be affected by current economic recession) should buy? Is possibility of negative equity not a serious issue? Are my facts wrong? You say it is imprtant to look at all sides. Well you are free to present the argument as to why and in what circumstances it is a good idea to buy.
> 
> So what is your point in relation to daft figures? You accept there is oversupply. What are you saying is the trend? Is oversupply going to continue? Is demand going to pick up? Are banks not going to make lending more scarce? Why should these factors not be considered in a persons decision to buy?


 
My mistake you referred only to ifs although some could consider 'if' to be as conclusive as 'might', either way you are right not to use definitive terms because they cannot be used in terms of what the future holds.

Your argument about someone buying and wanting to sell in years is as you say yourself hypothetical so again arguments on this basis can go either way, the economy could be further in the mire or it could be sorted, 7 years is a long way away.

Negative equity is a serious problem for those who are already in it if they absoluely require the need to move on. I say why not factor in any perceived drops to your offer, does this not seem reasonable. You don't seriously think that each scenario regarding the needs of the purchaser and the type of property/location are always the same. A blanket approach to house buying doesn't make sense to me.

In relation to daft figures I have already agreed that there is oversupply just not in the region being hyped. many people 'test' the market on the cheap and won't sell their homes and agents rarely have sole selling rights so there is duplication everywhere. I think there will continue to be over supply but it will lower as some will now decide that they can't afford to move on and will just start removing property from the market. 
There is a stand off between buyers and sellers and sellers cant afford to drop so it wont simply be a free for all in a years time.

Your 'facts' I'm not sure off in that you state what is likely to happen in your opinion and i respect that they are just that, your opinion.

A person should consider all factors before they buy that is the sensible thing to do, I don't recall saying that this isn't the case.


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## DerKaiser (8 Apr 2009)

stolen said:


> Hello,
> 
> I am a single person earning 45k a year . I am in the process of getting a mortgage from boi at the moment. If the approval is successful, is now a good time to but for a first time buyer like myself as I am thirty six and not getting any younger ) The house is a new build, was valued at about 260 and am getting if for 190,000 builders finish. This will be my home for as far into the future as I can see, ie. i will not be selling. So, do I keep renting or make the move? I know that there is no definate answer to this, I am just looking for advice? Any help appreciated.
> 
> Thanks, David


 
Keep renting.  If the government fully removes the offset of interest against rent in calculating taxable income (it's already gone 25% of the way as of yesterday), then there will be a rush of investors getting out of property over the next couple of years further driving down prices.

We are fast approaching a situation where pre tax rental yields will need to rise to 10%, meaning house prices should fall to 10 times their annual rent


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## corkgal (8 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> That would be some fit out 40k!.



I could spend 40k on my house in the morning to have it more like what I would like. new kitchen and ensuite, update the flooring etc. 
Fit out can cost what you want. Typical budget for a showhouse is well over 40k.


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## Wiggles (8 Apr 2009)

Arkle said:


> RE: "I think people are now just full of doom and gloom about the property market and are mad at themselves for not seeing it coming!!! We all have a part to play in getting out of this mess and the best way is to remain positve and continue spending the pennies or cents!! House prices will stop dropping once the banks start lending and that will come around quicker than you think. "
> 
> 
> Having seen the graph on this page I would beg to disagree. I think prices still have a long way to go before they reach their natural equilibrium.
> http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=18457&start=120



Could you explain that graph? It makes no sense to me. It shows the average price of a house in 1980 was £125k.

I understand that people see house prices falling, but the idea that sellers have to drop their prices doesn't really make sense. I'd imagine most will just take their house off the market. You have to live somewhere!

In the past someone would buy a property to get on the ladder. After a few years most people's job position would improve and they have some equity for a deposit to trade up. Now those people are in negative equity and can't trade up so those house's further up the ladder are now not selling.

So is the market not in a complete jam? People don't want apartments because they can't sell them on to trade up and people selling houses that families would trade up to just take their house off the market because the prices has plummted and they reckon that sooner or later it will pick up again.


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## charliemacck (8 Apr 2009)

Wiggles said:


> Could you explain that graph? It makes no sense to me. It shows the average price of a house in 1980 was £125k.


 
The prices are adjusted for inflation - hence the title. 



> I understand that people see house prices falling, but the idea that sellers have to drop their prices doesn't really make sense. I'd imagine most will just take their house off the market. You have to live somewhere!


 
Unless the seller is forced to sell as their mortgage is too high. Or unless it's a property investment they're selling, as the rent doesn't cover the mortgage and the price isn't appreciating. In that case, if they can't sell, they're putting it on the rental market, which inflates _that_ market and drops rent even more.


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## MrMan (8 Apr 2009)

corkgal said:


> I could spend 40k on my house in the morning to have it more like what I would like. new kitchen and ensuite, update the flooring etc.
> Fit out can cost what you want. Typical budget for a showhouse is well over 40k.


 
I promise you that the typical budget for a showhouse is under 40k. You were talking about a new house, so why would you rip out the kitchen and ensuite? Of course you can make the figures stack up by adding jobs but that wasn't what you originally spoke about.


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## MrMan (8 Apr 2009)

DerKaiser said:


> Keep renting. If the government fully removes the offset of interest against rent in calculating taxable income (it's already gone 25% of the way as of yesterday), then there will be a rush of investors getting out of property over the next couple of years further driving down prices.
> 
> We are fast approaching a situation where pre tax rental yields will need to rise to 10%, meaning house prices should fall to 10 times their annual rent


 
There may not be quite the rush you expect if the properties are in negative equity. It is too simplistic to suggest that one event will result in house prices collapsing to 10 times their annual rent.


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## Wiggles (8 Apr 2009)

charliemacck said:


> The prices are adjusted for inflation - hence the title.



Great explanation!

Any chance that you could let me know how the graph was generated? Who created it and maybe a link to the original report from a website other than an internet forum?


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## DerKaiser (8 Apr 2009)

MrMan said:


> There may not be quite the rush you expect if the properties are in negative equity. It is too simplistic to suggest that one event will result in house prices collapsing to 10 times their annual rent.


 
After expenses you could expect maybe €12k rent per annum on a typical dublin apartment, this could justify a €250k valuation if none of it was taxable.  If it's all taxable at a marginal rate of 50% (as will be the case if the interest offset is removed) then €125k would be the appropriate valuation for an investor.

If the government continue down this path they will ultimately remove investors from the market further reducing demand and hence prices.


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## Brendan Burgess (8 Apr 2009)

Folks

This thread fully justifies the ban on house price discussion.

All heat, no light.

The offer still stands, if someone wants to do a balanced view of the direction of property prices, send it to me and if it's balanced we will put it up on Askaboutmoney.

Other than that, the ban still stands. Continue your discussion on the Property Pin.

Brendan


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