# The safety of the new vaccine



## Brendan Burgess

I raised this in another thread but I think it's worth highlighting.

My concern was that two or three months of testing might not be long enough to determine if it had any long term negative side-effects.

However, this was dealt with by one of the experts on BBC's excellent new series: 









						BBC Radio 4 - How to Vaccinate the World, The Beginning
					

Tim Harford reports on the global race to create a vaccine to end the Covid-19 pandemic.




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




In testing previous vaccines, the negative side-effects all showed up quickly, so they are not concerned about negative side-effects appearing after a  longer period of actual use. 

And while they couldn't be definitely ruled out,  the risks from Covid are known and far higher. And indeed, some of the long-term effects of Covid seem quite serious as well.

So, I am going to fight my way to the top of the queue for vaccination. 

Brendan


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## john luc

Had a listen to this, 28 minutes long and a lot to digest. @ 4.15 they talk about RNA and give an explanation and @ 6.28 they discuss they risk factor of RNA treatment effecting your DNA. This is where I think people will be a bit afraid of this new method I think. @10.50 they talk about safety. Worth a listen to more than once to get a good understanding of what's being said.


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## Paul O Mahoney

Its new technology,  old vaccines and some for covid take the virus and manipulate it either by changing its geneic make up in order for our immune system adapt and kill this virus. 

This is different,  mRna is our messenger and it lives outside the cell nucleus but is used by cells for the transmission of code.
Both vaccines manipulate mRNA to detect the Rna protein that covid uses to stick to our lung cells primarily,  and attacks that Covid protein thereby not allowing covid to attach.
I believe that this will be the first time this technology is used in this way, cancer was primarily the research area.
For 30 years now mRna ideas were laughed at by the general scientific community,  but many kept going.

Long term side effects are unknown,  the vaccines are new and developed in 8/9 months of 2020,  but as our mRna doesn't live inside the nucleus of our cells and doesn't cause us any harm now its thought that it won't cause harm in the future. 

But who knows,  we all need to ponder Schrodingers Cat experiment. 

Obviously time and tracking of clinical trail volunteers over the next 2 years will tell us more. 

My view, not a scientific person,  just my understanding of available information,  plus my attempts to understand how mRna is being used in cancer treatment.


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## Brendan Burgess

Good summary Paul.

The only addition I would make is that we must compare the risk of taking the vaccine with the risk of being infected with Covid.

It seems that the long-term risk of  illness due to taking the vaccine is very small. 

The risk of serious illness if you get Covid is fairly high - depending on your personal profile. 

Brendan


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## Paul O Mahoney

Brendan Burgess said:


> Good summary Paul.
> 
> The only addition I would make is that we must compare the risk of taking the vaccine with the risk of being infected with Covid.
> 
> It seems that the long-term risk of  illness due to taking the vaccine is very small.
> 
> The risk of serious illness if you get Covid is fairly high - depending on your personal profile.
> 
> Brendan


Agreed there has been some evidence that Covid does affect organs other than the lungs, for example the bowel and it has also been witnessed that some people seemly recover from an infection only to get a second dose even in isolation. 
The view here is that the virus resides in the body, and its thought that it the bowel. 
Apparently analysis of poo, highlighted this.

Its going to be a while before the full details of all effects of covid are known,  if thats possible.


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## PM9999

I'm certainly no anti vaxxer generally, but I do have reservations about the speed at which this has been developed/tested. Some of the peripheral govt. activities have increased my concern, not least the immunity from prosecution granted by the U.S. for any adverse effects of administering the new Covid vaccine.

There was also a very interesting tender issued last month by the U.K. for software to monitor "adverse drug reactions" arising from the new vaccine. I quote:

"_Strictly necessary — it is not possible to retrofit the MHRA’s legacy systems to handle the volume of ADRs that will be generated by a Covid-19 vaccine. Therefore, if the MHRA does not implement the AI tool, it will be unable to process these ADRs effectively. This will hinder its ability to rapidly identify any potential safety issues with the Covid-19 vaccine and represents a direct threat to patient life and public health."_

See https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:506291-2020:TEXT:EN:HTML&tabId=1

I'm in my 60s, in reasonable health, and not hugely scared about the prospect of catching Covid 19. I'm not planning to be in the first wave of vaccine take up and should compulsion/mandatory vaccination come in (mooted as a possibility in the UK), I would regard that as a very negative development.


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## joe sod

PM9999 said:


> I'm not planning to be in the first wave of vaccine take up and should compulsion/mandatory vaccination come in (mooted as a possibility in the UK), I would regard that as a very negative development.


But what happens if you need a "vaccine passport" to go on holidays or to go to a crowded concert or bar , maybe there will be bouncers not checking for age but for your Covid passport. I see RTE have suddenly switched to discussing the arrival of the vaccine, I wonder why .
Brendan O Connor actually revealed today that they were told not to discuss the vaccine for fear it would stop people obeying the lockdown.


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## Sophrosyne

@PM9999, you are probably right at present.

This article from _The Lancet_ summarizes the position. The following is an extract:

“Unfortunately, the trials' results were announced via press releases, leaving many scientific uncertainties that will dictate how the vaccines will affect the course of the pandemic. Little safety data are available. How well the vaccines work in older people or those with underlying conditions and their efficacy in preventing severe disease are still unclear. Peer-reviewed publication should resolve these issues, but other questions will not be answerable for some time. For one, the duration of protection is unknown and will have a huge bearing on the practicalities and logistics of immunisation (will boosters be needed? How often?).

Whether the vaccines prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 or mainly just protect against illness is largely unknown too. If the latter, achieving herd immunity through immunisation becomes a difficult prospect. Pfizer and Moderna together project that there will be enough vaccine for 35 million individuals in 2020, and perhaps up to 1 billion in 2021. As a result, many millions of people at high risk of disease will not be immunised any time soon, necessitating the continued use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. There is a danger that the public might become complacent following the news of promising vaccines, but how much more difficult will it be to ensure adherence to guidance and restrictions when a vaccine is available to many but others remain unprotected?”


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## joe sod

The lancet hasn't had a great reputation lately, this from the guardian only last june

_"The Lancet is one of the oldest and most respected medical journals in the world. Recently, they published an article on Covid patients receiving hydroxychloroquine with a dire conclusion: the drug increases heartbeat irregularities and decreases hospital survival rates. This result was treated as authoritative, and major drug trials were immediately halted – because why treat anyone with an unsafe drug?

Now, that Lancet study has been retracted, withdrawn from the literature entirely, at the request of three of its authors who “can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources”. Given the seriousness of the topic and the consequences of the paper, this is one of the most consequential retractions in modern history."_

I think they have also made other big mistakes from memory, maybe what they say about the vaccine is correct but they are not  beyond repute themselves. They have basically said nothing bad about the vaccine because they have no data themselves but they are still trying to spread doubt without any data.


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## Sophrosyne

joe sod said:


> They have basically said nothing bad about the vaccine because they have no data themselves but *they are still trying to spread doubt without any data.*



The key issue is that data concerned has not yet been made public. So one cannot make assumptions either way.

The article expresses the same view held by reputable scientists worldwide, including our own - cautious optimism while prudently awaiting more substantial information, which was not contained in press releases but critical to evaluation of efficacy and to ongoing pandemic management.


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## Brendan Burgess

PM9999 said:


> I do have reservations about the speed at which this has been developed/tested.



I don't think you need reservations on this aspect.

The companies halted most of the other research and threw everything at this. Which is why they have come up with some vaccines so quickly. 

Likewise the approval process won't take shortcuts.  But they have a team on standby to review this as soon as the application is submitted. It won't go to the back of a long queue of other drugs. 

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess

joe sod said:


> But what happens if you need a "vaccine passport" to go on holidays or to go to a crowded concert or bar , maybe there will be bouncers not checking for age but for your Covid passport.



I don't think that the vaccine should be compulsory. But if someone chooses not to be vaccinated then they should not be allowed to go on a plane, go to a bar or any other crowded indoor space. 

Brendan


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## Paul O Mahoney

Just read a tweet from Katlin Karakoram who has been the person behind the Moderna vaccine and is as important in the story as the people in Biontech.

In the tweet she says that RNA being kept at lower temperatures actually remains stable for a long time at lower temperatures,  and this has been known for a long time. 
She goes on to say that storing it at higher temperature, reduces its shelf life.

Interesting tweet given that Moderna have said they can store their vaccine at much lower temperatures than Pfizers. 

It's unusual for anyone who is involved in one vaccine to talk about another one, suppose it might indicate that this truly is a project that the main benefits are actually the human race. Or am I dreaming again?

Ps don't know how to link to twitter,  I'm very much low techie techie


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## Paul O Mahoney

Brendan Burgess said:


> I don't think that the vaccine should be compulsory. But if someone chooses not to be vaccinated then they should not be allowed to go on a plane, go to a bar or any other crowded indoor space.
> 
> Brendan


 Very Monty Python. In Cork RTC in the 80s we were given 3 options but couldn't take the first 2.


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## Paul O Mahoney

Brendan Burgess said:


> I don't think you need reservations on this aspect.
> 
> The companies halted most of the other research and threw everything at this. Which is why they have come up with some vaccines so quickly.
> 
> Likewise the approval process won't take shortcuts.  But they have a team on standby to review this as soon as the application is submitted. It won't go to the back of a long queue of other drugs.
> 
> Brendan


Just to add to this, the vaccines will still have to get licences from all various Regulatory agencies globally,  like all other vaccines that we now have.

The emergency usage will be only for a few months.

Not pulling anyone up but production on all other medicines has continued as have inspections by regulators, but nearly all development other medicines and vaccines were severely curtailed.


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## Paul O Mahoney

Sophrosyne said:


> The key issue is that data concerned has not yet been made public. So one cannot make assumptions either way.
> 
> The article expresses the same view held by reputable scientists worldwide, including our own - cautious optimism while prudently awaiting more substantial information, which was not contained in press releases but critical to evaluation of efficacy and to ongoing pandemic management.


The FDA and EMA , the UK regulator all have the data, and that is more important than the Lancet.
The Lancet aren't a  regulatory agency and they are still hugely important but are also stuck in the past,  this is emergency approval they'll get the data when full licencing is sought.


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## Paul O Mahoney

Sophrosyne said:


> @PM9999, you are probably right at present.
> 
> This article from _The Lancet_ summarizes the position. The following is an extract:
> 
> “Unfortunately, the trials' results were announced via press releases, leaving many scientific uncertainties that will dictate how the vaccines will affect the course of the pandemic. Little safety data are available. How well the vaccines work in older people or those with underlying conditions and their efficacy in preventing severe disease are still unclear. Peer-reviewed publication should resolve these issues, but other questions will not be answerable for some time. For one, the duration of protection is unknown and will have a huge bearing on the practicalities and logistics of immunisation (will boosters be needed? How often?).
> 
> Whether the vaccines prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 or mainly just protect against illness is largely unknown too. If the latter, achieving herd immunity through immunisation becomes a difficult prospect. Pfizer and Moderna together project that there will be enough vaccine for 35 million individuals in 2020, and perhaps up to 1 billion in 2021. As a result, many millions of people at high risk of disease will not be immunised any time soon, necessitating the continued use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. There is a danger that the public might become complacent following the news of promising vaccines, but how much more difficult will it be to ensure adherence to guidance and restrictions when a vaccine is available to many but others remain unprotected?”


All the answers are available in the public domain.
Both vaccines are two dose, boosters are a unknown now.

Also Pfizer and Moderna aren't the only cowboys at the Rodeo. 
Johnson and Johnson,  Astrazeneca, GSK the worlds biggest vaccine producer , and many others are at various stages of development. 

Qtr1 of 2021 will be exciting as more vaccines will be close to market.


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## Paul O Mahoney

PM9999 said:


> I'm certainly no anti vaxxer generally, but I do have reservations about the speed at which this has been developed/tested. Some of the peripheral govt. activities have increased my concern, not least the immunity from prosecution granted by the U.S. for any adverse effects of administering the new Covid vaccine.
> 
> There was also a very interesting tender issued last month by the U.K. for software to monitor "adverse drug reactions" arising from the new vaccine. I quote:
> 
> "_Strictly necessary — it is not possible to retrofit the MHRA’s legacy systems to handle the volume of ADRs that will be generated by a Covid-19 vaccine. Therefore, if the MHRA does not implement the AI tool, it will be unable to process these ADRs effectively. This will hinder its ability to rapidly identify any potential safety issues with the Covid-19 vaccine and represents a direct threat to patient life and public health."_
> 
> See https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:506291-2020:TEXT:EN:HTML&tabId=1
> 
> I'm in my 60s, in reasonable health, and not hugely scared about the prospect of catching Covid 19. I'm not planning to be in the first wave of vaccine take up and should compulsion/mandatory vaccination come in (mooted as a possibility in the UK), I would regard that as a very negative development.


OK I saw this too, and on further research the UK system needs to be updated as the pure volume of vaccination is going to dwarf anything that has gone before. 

Personally I think this is a good thing as data needs to be collected. This is new technology and its the first time it has been made and used in the population. It would be unthinkable that the results wouldn't be tracked. 

PS all vaccines are tracked and the WHO needs this data too, like the data on the virus itself. 

And the companies will be tracking too, they have to.


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## Paul O Mahoney

Astrazeneca/Oxford vaccine have just announced 70% efficiency with a single dose, and 90% with 2 does . BBC Morning program just said it.
Sunshine and lollipops


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## Sophrosyne

@Paul O'Mahony, are you saying that the Pfizer Phase III trials have been concluded and have been published?


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## Brendan Burgess

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Very Monty Python. In Cork RTC in the 80s we were given 3 options but couldn't take the first 2.



I don't understand your comment.

People will have a choice - get vaccinated or not.

But those who choose not to get vaccinated, will not be able to do a lot of things in public. They can make that choice. We don't have that choice now - we can't travel or go to pubs.  Those of us who are happy to be vaccinated, will be able to do so in future. Those who don't want to be vaccinated will continue under the current restrictions.

Brendan


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## Paul O Mahoney

Brendan Burgess said:


> I don't understand your comment.
> 
> People will have a choice - get vaccinated or not.
> 
> But those who choose not to get vaccinated, will not be able to do a lot of things in public. They can make that choice. We don't have that choice now - we can't travel or go to pubs.  Those of us who are happy to be vaccinated, will be able to do so in future. Those who don't want to be vaccinated will continue under the current restrictions.
> 
> Brendan


Just a tongue in cheek response ,  I agree with you but the civil liberty crowd would be up in arms, not to mention the Gemmas of this world if this was introduced. 

Months pythons comedy was generally contradictory or maybe that's just me.


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## Paul O Mahoney

Sophrosyne said:


> @Paul O'Mahony, are you saying that the Pfizer Phase III trials have been concluded and have been published?


No but the data is now with the FDA ,EMA and UK regulatory authorities for emergency use.
The trials and monitoring will continue for a while , trails may become more detailed with certain demographics and monitoring will as stated continue for 2 years of the volunteers at least.
As I said above they'll all need licences and that will require detailed analysis of everything including site visits to production facilities including 3rd parties,  vial producers for example, distribution,  storage, QC/QA,contingencies, risk and people's skills. Qps are the main ones here.

These are huge undertakings but its believed that some will start in January.


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## joe sod

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Very Monty Python. In Cork RTC in the 80s we were given 3 options but couldn't take the first 2.


Or like Helen McEntee, you have 3 choices but they are all Seamus Wolfe


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## Leo

PM9999 said:


> I'm certainly no anti vaxxer generally, but I do have reservations about the speed at which this has been developed/tested.



It should be noted that mRNA vaccines are significantly quicker to develop than traditional vaccines. The whole process of growing weakened versions of the protein is eliminated and that element can take years with normal levels of funding.


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## Paul O Mahoney

Leo said:


> It should be noted that mRNA vaccines are significantly quicker to develop than traditional vaccines. The whole process of growing weakened versions of the protein is eliminated and that element can take years with normal levels of funding.


Not really Leo, Astrazeneca/Oxford vaccine is the old way I believe but the data sharing helped.

But also mRna being used for anything to do with vaccines was laughed that for the last 20plus years by mainstream science. 

The Biontech people were researching cancer vaccines using mRna hoping to find vaccines but at an individual level,  as most cancers are individually unique. 
They ploughed on as did the girl who's behind the Moderna vaccine.


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## Sophrosyne

Brendan Burgess said:


> People will have a choice - get vaccinated or not.



Absolutely!

If and when the various vaccines receive Emergency Use Authorization, then recipients would have to be told that they are about to receive an unapproved vaccine under an EUA.

For instance, people about to receive the annual flu vaccine are given a patient information leaflet setting out the benefits and risks.
Sometimes they are advised against flu vaccination because of existing medical conditions. One of my relatives, an asthmatic, cannot get vaccinated when he is wheezing badly or has a bad cold.

People would typically be guided by their GP or consultant, who taking account of their individual health status, will weigh the benefits of available vaccines against possible risks.

Since it is expected that priority will be given to those most at risk, the benefits/risks to age and comorbidity would be of particular interest to health experts.

Time will reveal full details.

If I am vaccinated would I fly or go to a crowded bar next year.
I don’t know, because, _at present_, I don’t know exactly what safeguards the vaccines offer to me or to people with whom I have close contact. 

Of course, that does not rule out future advancements of fully approved vaccines.


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## Paul O Mahoney

Sophrosyne said:


> Absolutely!
> 
> If and when the various vaccines receive Emergency Use Authorization, then recipients would have to be told that they are about to receive an unapproved vaccine under an EUA.
> 
> For instance, people about to receive the annual flu vaccine are given a patient information leaflet setting out the benefits and risks.
> Sometimes they are advised against flu vaccination because of existing medical conditions. One of my relatives, an asthmatic, cannot get vaccinated when he is wheezing badly or has a bad cold.
> 
> People would typically be guided by their GP or consultant, who taking account of their individual health status, will weigh the benefits of available vaccines against possible risks.
> 
> Since it is expected that priority will be given to those most at risk, the benefits/risks to age and comorbidity would be of particular interest to health experts.
> 
> Time will reveal full details.
> 
> If I am vaccinated would I fly or go to a crowded bar next year.
> I don’t know, because, _at present_, I don’t know exactly what safeguards the vaccines offer to me or to people with whom I have close contact.
> 
> Of course, that does not rule out future advancements of fully approved vaccines.


I'm sure there were many worried about other vaccines but now with the Internet we thankfully can express those worries which is a good thing. 

Vaccines aren't just made for anything once they always improved on as more data is gathered.


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## Sophrosyne

Paul O Mahoney said:


> I'm sure there were many worried about other vaccines but now with the Internet we thankfully can express those worries which is a good thing.
> 
> Vaccines aren't just made for anything once they always improved on as more data is gathered.



I am aware of that Paul, but I shall still seek the advice of my consultant.


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## Purple

Sophrosyne said:


> I am aware of that Paul, but I shall still seek the advice of my consultant.


Do you have a immunology consultant?


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## Purple

Sophrosyne said:


> If and when the various vaccines receive Emergency Use Authorization, then recipients would have to be told that they are about to receive an unapproved vaccine under an EUA.
> 
> For instance, people about to receive the annual flu vaccine are given a patient information leaflet setting out the benefits and risks.
> Sometimes they are advised against flu vaccination because of existing medical conditions. One of my relatives, an asthmatic, cannot get vaccinated when he is wheezing badly or has a bad cold.


I think people will be aware of the EUA. They probably won't understand the amount of validation that a vaccine has to go through to get a EUA. 
There will be people who cannot take this vaccine due to being immunocompromised for whatever reason. That's why it is so important that those who can take it do take it.


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## rgfuller

Episode 2 of the BBC radio show is now available:-









						How to Vaccinate the World - Who gets it? - BBC Sounds
					

Tim Harford reports on the global race to create a vaccine to end the Covid-19 pandemic.




					www.bbc.co.uk


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## jackswift

Brendan Burgess said:


> I don't think you need reservations on this aspect.
> 
> The companies halted most of the other research and threw everything at this. Which is why they have come up with some vaccines so quickly.
> 
> Likewise the approval process won't take shortcuts.  But they have a team on standby to review this as soon as the application is submitted. It won't go to the back of a long queue of other drugs.
> 
> Brendan


Can you explain how they can fast track 4-7 of testing that it normally takes before approving a vaccine? No amount of money thrown at it or experts working on it can do that unlike what they want people to believe.


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## Purple

jackswift said:


> Can you explain how they can fast track 4-7 of testing that it normally takes before approving a vaccine?


What's 4-7 of testing?


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## jackswift

Purple said:


> What's 4-7 of testing?


Years


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## Purple

jackswift said:


> Years


There can't be longitudinal studies but there is a massive amount of data being generated and analysed. 
The data and the nature of mRNA vaccines suggests that they are intrinsically safer as the virus, alive of dead, is not in the vaccine and so never enters the body.


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## Paul O Mahoney

jackswift said:


> Can you explain how they can fast track 4-7 of testing that it normally takes before approving a vaccine? No amount of money thrown at it or experts working on it can do that unlike what they want people to believe.


This isn't normal vaccine development,  data was shared and the biggest clinical trails in human history preformed,  over 500,000 participants. 
Normal vaccine development does take years but its usually one company like Pfizer or GSK , additionally getting trial volunteers in normal time is a slow and laborious process. In fact there is a company in California that are trying to make a one shot vaccine for all the vaccines we take individually,  measles, rubella etc and they are struggling to get human volunteers and are testing on pigs in Honduras. 

The Ebola vaccine was pretty quick too.


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## Paul O Mahoney

Dunno if this is the right thread .......This morning I was watching BBC and it mentioned that a small study of 10 people who had Covid-19 but remained short of breath and tired, it was found that 8 of the 10 had lung damage.
Again finding this is a new approach using xenon gas to highlight the damage.
If this is replicated in larger studies the numbers of people who will continue to endure ill health could be significant.

I know people are cautious with the vaccine but surely the mounting evidence of other side effects ( including the virus residing in the bowel) of having and recovering from the virus would probably negate possible side effects of the virus if any?

I think that over the next few years the longterm effects of the virus are going to unraveled and understood and the true extent of actually getting the virus can be a lot more damaging than the symptoms we see now.


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## Paul O Mahoney

I read that according to initial analysis by the CDC and announced by Moncef Slaoui, vaccine "czar" in the US that between 10 and 15% of clinical trail volunteers did " notice significant effects" after receiving the vaccine. 
These included soreness in injection area and severe chills , but it noted that these passed in the majority after a couple of days. 
I tried linking to the story, but its on cnbcs website


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## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> I read that according to initial analysis by the CDC and announced by Moncef Slaoui, vaccine "czar" in the US that between 10 and 15% of clinical trail volunteers did " notice significant effects" after receiving the vaccine.
> These included soreness in injection area and severe chills , but it noted that these passed in the majority after a couple of days.
> I tried linking to the story, but its on cnbcs website



That seems a higher number than get similar responses to the flu vaccine... and perhaps the symptoms are more severe also.
I think it will have to be factored in, especially rollout to frontline staff, that you may have to writeoff the next 48 hours rather than just carry on as normal.


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## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> That seems a higher number than get similar responses to the flu vaccine... and perhaps the symptoms are more severe also.
> I think it will have to be factored in, especially rollout to frontline staff, that you may have to writeoff the next 48 hours rather than just carry on as normal.


Like everything thing else with this virus " who knows " Personally finding a vein to get anything takes hours, I usually break out in something after the flu vaccine.
It will interesting to see what happens but a least the UK have approved the Pfizer Biontech vaccine and data will be available.


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## Allpartied

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Like everything thing else with this virus " who knows " Personally finding a vein to get anything takes hours, I usually break out in something after the flu vaccine.
> It will interesting to see what happens but a least the UK have approved the Pfizer Biontech vaccine and data will be available.




Most vaccines are injected Intra Muscular, because an IV injection would lead to the liver and spleen swamping the vaccine before it got a chance to generate anti-bodies. 

I'm not sure how the new vaccines are being administered, but I would imagine they are IM too.


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## joe sod

I see an article in the independent that the state is to indemnify the pharmaceutical companies rolling out the vaccine in order to allow them to roll it out quickly. I bet the state will also tighten up the laws to prevent people trying to claim for spurious stuff. I think that's the real reason why vaccines normally take so long to roll out, companies have to ensure that they do not get caught with enormous litigation liabilities .


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## odyssey06

Explainer on The Journal about the emergency rollout of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

The UK has formally approved a vaccine against Covid-19 developed by Germany’s BioNTech and US giant Pfizer, becoming the first country to do so. ... The Guardian reports that the UK has bought 40 million doses of the vaccine, with a statement form the company saying that the first doses will arrive in the UK in coming days.









						Explainer: How has a Covid-19 vaccine been approved so quickly in the UK?
					

The UK has formally approved the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine against Covid-19.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## Purple

Good explainer on what this vaccine is with some general info on mRNA vaccines on RTE


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## odyssey06

Not sure if it's the right thread to mention it, but what would certainly ease rollout is ensuring staff can take paid time off to get the vaccine. At the moment, my understanding is that paid leave for a scheduled medical appointment isn't statutory - as opposed to an unexpected illness or accident or emergency type situation.
So clarity, something unequivocal from the government on that would be good across the private and public sector.


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## Purple

odyssey06 said:


> Not sure if it's the right thread to mention it, but what would certainly ease rollout is ensuring staff can take paid time off to get the vaccine. At the moment, my understanding is that paid leave for a scheduled medical appointment isn't statutory - as opposed to an unexpected illness or accident or emergency type situation.
> So clarity, something unequivocal from the government on that would be good across the private and public sector.


What system should the government use to compensate employers for having to provide that paid leave?


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## odyssey06

Purple said:


> What system should the government use to compensate employers for having to provide that paid leave?



Good question, I was thinking of employers which already cover such leave - and ensuring that is treated in same way as emergency.
But for employers who don't cover it, there is a government scheme, which only kicks in after X days, but it only covers statutory payment not full wages.
Without such compensation somewhere - either to employers or employees, I can see vaccine uptake being significantly affected.
A repeat of the scenarios we had where people weren't getting tested as they would miss out on working time.

It would be in employer's interests to have all their staff vaccinated - and hopefully that would be done free of charge.


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## Purple

odyssey06 said:


> Good question, I was thinking of employers which already cover such leave - and ensuring that is treated in same way as emergency.
> But for employers who don't cover it, there is a government scheme, which only kicks in after X days, but it only covers statutory payment not full wages.
> Without such compensation somewhere - either to employers or employees, I can see vaccine uptake being significantly affected.
> A repeat of the scenarios we had where people weren't getting tested as they would miss out on working time.
> 
> It would be in employer's interests to have all their staff vaccinated - and hopefully that would be done free of charge.


I hope that there will be private companies offering the vaccine. It would be great to get a site visit and just everyone vaccinated in one go. The cost would be far outweighed by the disruption avoided.
We've been using a private company for testing anyone who has symptoms. We pay for the test. We've also paid foreign employees who were stuck in their home countries but there are employers who can't afford to pay anything extra at the moment.


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## odyssey06

Purple said:


> I hope that there will be private companies offering the vaccine. It would be great to get a site visit and just everyone vaccinated in one go. The cost would be far outweighed by the disruption avoided.
> We've been using a private company for testing anyone who has symptoms. We pay for the test. We've also paid foreign employees who were stuck in their home countries but there are employers who can't afford to pay anything extra at the moment.



From personal experience, on site vaccinations for flu are a lot less hassle.

I think with some of the vaccines on site vaccinations might be more challenging due to super cold storage requirements?
Maybe not the Oxford one?

There would still need to be a process for people who 'miss their day' onsite - there will always be someone not in the office that day.

Edited to clarify Oxford vaccine doesnt need super cold storage - Pfizer does


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> From personal experience, on site vaccinations for flu are a lot less hassle.
> 
> I think with some of the vaccines on site vaccinations might be more challenging due to super cold storage requirements?
> Maybe not the Pfizer one?
> 
> There would still need to be a process for people who 'miss their day' onsite - there will always be someone not in the office that day.


Why is the temperature an issue? Ebola vaccine a few years ago had similar requirements and that seemed to be rolled out ok, and in Africa where normal "shelf life" is double that of other vaccines. 

Most countries would have deep cold temperature equipment,  OK getting them to maximum efficiency locations might initially difficult but once in situ thats it.
Like most vaccines they will all lyophilized in the future anyway and temperature won't be an issue. 
It's a long way off before the ordinary Joe will be offered this vaccine anyway,  Moderna doesn't have its own plant yet, and will be dependent on 3rd Party producers and all the risk involved in that.

But the most important thing is we have a vaccine and from here it gets better with all the others rolling in behind, but there will be issue's of varying degree of seriousness its part of the game.


----------



## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Why is the temperature an issue? Ebola vaccine a few years ago had similar requirements and that seemed to be rolled out ok, and in Africa where normal "shelf life" is double that of other vaccines.
> Most countries would have deep cold temperature equipment,  OK getting them to maximum efficiency locations might initially difficult but once in situ thats it.



Actually it is the Pfizer one that needs the super cold storage.

It seems to be due to concerns about mRNA degrading... It's possible that Pfizer's vaccine could eventually be shown to be stable in somewhat warmer conditions — or for longer times out of the freezer.
But when running the tests they used super cold storage so that is what it would be approved for currently.

Pfizer has created a special transport box - the same size as a regular suitcase - which has a GPS tracker and can be filled with dry ice to maintain cold temperatures. The boxes can carry up to 5,000 doses at the safe temperature for up to 10 days and can be reused hundreds of times.
Once it has arrived at the facility, the drug must be stored in a specialist freezer or fridge - similar to a domestic appliance but with precise temperature controls and locks suitable for storing medicine. Storing the vaccine at -70C presents problems for care homes, GP surgeries, pharmacists and hospitals which do not have the freezer capacity to store the drug at the scale ministers would like it to be rolled out...
Asked about how it would affect the speed of the rollout, health secretary Matt Hancock told LBC the freezer requirements "are quite significant" and that it would be a "challenge" to meet the capacity needed for a rapid rollout.

What is the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine storage temperature and how will the UK store it? - LBC


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> Actually it is the Pfizer one that needs the super cold storage.
> 
> It seems to be due to concerns about mRNA degrading... It's possible that Pfizer's vaccine could eventually be shown to be stable in somewhat warmer conditions — or for longer times out of the freezer.
> But when running the tests they used super cold storage so that is what it would be approved for currently.
> 
> Pfizer has created a special transport box - the same size as a regular suitcase - which has a GPS tracker and can be filled with dry ice to maintain cold temperatures. The boxes can carry up to 5,000 doses at the safe temperature for up to 10 days and can be reused hundreds of times.
> Once it has arrived at the facility, the drug must be stored in a specialist freezer or fridge - similar to a domestic appliance but with precise temperature controls and locks suitable for storing medicine. Storing the vaccine at -70C presents problems for care homes, GP surgeries, pharmacists and hospitals which do not have the freezer capacity to store the drug at the scale ministers would like it to be rolled out...
> Asked about how it would affect the speed of the rollout, health secretary Matt Hancock told LBC the freezer requirements "are quite significant" and that it would be a "challenge" to meet the capacity needed for a rapid rollout.
> 
> What is the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine storage temperature and how will the UK store it? - LBC


mRNA doesn't degrade, its the medium in the vile that can change when exposed to temperature increases. For example the medium will contain lipids which are normally clear even to high resolution microscope but some will change and be visible. 
These changes do not degrade anything and they aren't a health risk but they do change the appearance of the vaccines.......its an ongoing issue with all vaccines.


----------



## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> mRNA doesn't degrade, its the medium in the vile that can change when exposed to temperature increases. For example the medium will contain lipids which are normally clear even to high resolution microscope but some will change and be visible.
> These changes do not degrade anything and they aren't a health risk but they do change the appearance of the vaccines.......its an ongoing issue with all vaccines.



Ah ok, but there must be some concern about how this relates to the effectiveness of the vaccine when delivered?
I can't imagine Pfizer went with super cold storage for appearance reasons only?

Edit: According to this NPR article
But even with the stabilized building blocks and lipid coating, the mRNA could still fall apart easily, which is why the vaccine is frozen. 
"Everything happens more slowly as you lower the temperature," Liu says. "So your chemical reactions — the enzymes that break down RNA — are going to happen more slowly." It's the same idea as freezing food to keep it from spoiling.
Because the specific formulations are secret, Liu says, it's not clear exactly why these two mRNA vaccines have different temperature requirements.
"It just comes down to what their data is," she says of Moderna's vaccine. "If their data shows that it's more stable at a certain temperature, that's it."

Why Moderna And Pfizer Vaccines Have Different Cold Storage Requirements : Shots - Health News : NPR


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> Ah ok, but there must be some concern about how this relates to the effectiveness of the vaccine when delivered?
> I can't imagine Pfizer went with super cold storage for appearance reasons only?
> 
> Edit: According to this NPR article
> But even with the stabilized building blocks and lipid coating, the mRNA could still fall apart easily, which is why the vaccine is frozen.
> "Everything happens more slowly as you lower the temperature," Liu says. "So your chemical reactions — the enzymes that break down RNA — are going to happen more slowly." It's the same idea as freezing food to keep it from spoiling.
> Because the specific formulations are secret, Liu says, it's not clear exactly why these two mRNA vaccines have different temperature requirements.
> "It just comes down to what their data is," she says of Moderna's vaccine. "If their data shows that it's more stable at a certain temperature, that's it."
> 
> Why Moderna And Pfizer Vaccines Have Different Cold Storage Requirements : Shots - Health News : NPR


Modernas medium is different thus the temperature difference., its called stability and as the word means the vaccine says more stable at lower temperatures.

The word breakdown really is not the right word effectiveness of the vaccine is reduced. 

My wife is involved,  but another vaccine prenvar protects children from pneumonia,  and she was tasked with getting it into the WHO program for Africa,  its "shelf life" in the western world is 15 days......production to patient. However in Africa people walk everywhere and 15 days isn't enough time, so she got her team and another team in Lyon to try and extend it to 30days, and lipids became and issue,  so after a year and a half the WHO were happy with the fact that "effectiveness " wasn't overly reduced by the longer stability time. And the vaccines were shipped and still are...

Vaccines will be manipulated and made better as more data comes in, so while the temperature issue is causing a headaches now its a natural part of vaccine development,  Prenvar is now available for adults,  old people 70+ and teenagers,  but the initial use was for children under 5 I think.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

And also remember this is brand new biotechnology in its usage, research has been going on for 25 years.

There are going to be issues and she was explicitly told last night get your Christmas shopping done sooner rather than later.....to make 1.3bn doses next year is going be a huge ask, and thats just Pfizer, Moderna,  J&J,Astrazeneca etc will also face issues. 

This could be the way we create vaccines for HIV, Cancer and whatever else mutates and jumps species, it could be the age of new medicines as CRISPR is also showing that your DNA can be altered and people are taking about eliminating dementia,  or genetic inherited cancers like Brac2.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Well that didn't take long, looks like the US aren't going to get its 100m doses this year, according to AP.
Anyone find the schoolyard stuff amusing ,  I'm mean senior politicians getting into spats over who's the best , I was surprised at the German Ambassador weighting in, more surprised at Fauci saying what he said. 

I would say the political pressure that is going on behind the scenes must be intense.


----------



## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Well that didn't take long, looks like the US aren't going to get its 100m doses this year, according to AP.
> Anyone find the schoolyard stuff amusing ,  I'm mean senior politicians getting into spats over who's the best , I was surprised at the German Ambassador weighting in, more surprised at Fauci saying what he said.
> I would say the political pressure that is going on behind the scenes must be intense.



Disappointing there will be less doses available - supply chain quality issues?

On the political side... more of this hopefully - Obama, Clinton, Bush & Biden have volunteered to be inoculated on camera... although it still won't convince everyone (they got a placedo etc)


----------



## Sophrosyne

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Well that didn't take long, looks like the US aren't going to get its 100m doses this year, according to AP.



What's going on now?


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> Disappointing there will be less doses available - supply chain quality issues?
> 
> On the political side... more of this hopefully - Obama, Clinton, Bush & Biden have volunteered to be inoculated on camera... although it still won't convince everyone (they got a placedo etc)


Yeah Matt Hancock apparently said the same.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Sophrosyne said:


> What's going on now?


Supply issues is cited in the AP story. Pfizer hasn't commented yet, but its the US market. 
Since we are getting ours from Purrs in Belgium and they have plenty produced it might not affect us .
Of course Pfizer being Pfizer and they have already sent a batch via United Airlines last week to test how things worked out, the flight was from Brussels to Chicago as the plant is in Michigan.


----------



## Purple

The CEO of the HSE, Paul Reid, has said Ireland has capacity to acquire 16 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines. 

Why do we need 16 million doses? There's 4.9 million people in this country so we need 9.8 million doses to vaccinate everyone. What are the other 6.2 million for?


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Purple said:


> The CEO of the HSE, Paul Reid, has said Ireland has capacity to acquire 16 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines.
> 
> Why do we need 16 million doses? There's 4.9 million people in this country so we need 9.8 million doses to vaccinate everyone. What are the other 6.2 million for?


I would imagine it would be for contingency,  we know that everyone will need to get 2 doses, obviously not everyone will take it initially or never and some doses might be damaged.........I'd say the list is long....at $20 a dose a go that's $32m or  about €25m. 

Suppose the are  just being extremely conservative in the  planning.


----------



## Purple

Paul O Mahoney said:


> I would imagine it would be for contingency,  we know that everyone will need to get 2 doses, obviously not everyone will take it initially or never and some doses might be damaged.........I'd say the list is long....at $20 a dose a go that's $32m or  about €25m.
> 
> Suppose the are  just being extremely conservative in the  planning.


Better looking at it than looking for it?


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Purple said:


> Better looking at it than looking for it?


Looks like the manufacturers and health systems are factoring in a 10% min loss, due to damage, supply chain issues,  ineffective product,  this loss could be higher or lower only time will tell.


----------



## odyssey06

_UK REGULATORS HAVE issued a warning that people who have a history of “significant” allergic reactions should not currently receive the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine after two people who had the jab yesterday had allergic reactions... It is understood both have a significant history of allergic reactions – to the extent where they need to carry an adrenaline auto-injector with them. 
The MHRA advice states: “Any person with a history of a significant allergic reaction to a vaccine, medicine or food (such as previous history of anaphylactoid reaction or those who have been advised to carry an adrenaline auto-injector) should not receive the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine.
Resuscitation facilities should be available at all times for all vaccinations. Vaccination should only be carried out in facilities where resuscitation measures are available.”
The two NHS workers developed symptoms of “anaphylactoid reaction” shortly after receiving the vaccine, but both recovered after the appropriate treatment._









						UK regulators warn people with history of serious allergic reactions not to have Pfizer/BioNTech jab
					

Two people who had the jab yesterday had allergic reactions.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Theres another one reported in a UK site of a feeling of severe cold eventough the temp of the recipients was normal. 

I'd imagine there is going to be loads of this for months. 
As the name sake of the 2nd  UK recipient yesterday would muse " to be or not to be " ....
2 out of how many would provide context, if this was the only side effect we'd be laughing it most certainly won't be.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Of course Pfizer and Mylan have merged some business units and Mylan the biggest E- pen producer in the world are going to make a fortune.....


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Seriously when I was sick I had my stem cells harvested,  as I was getting " high dose chemotherapy " on the first reintroduction of my stem cells,  I had a bit of a fit, it wasn't a allergic reaction but my body had a difficulty receiving its own stem cells back......

Subsequent reintroductions passed without incident,  thankfully. 
The body and its workings can be very unpredictable but hopefully these incidents are well within the risk " bell curve " and reporting done in context.

Who hasn't had a child grumpy after the MMR?


----------



## jackswift

For anyone wishing to take this vaccine, God kiss you good luck.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

jackswift said:


> For anyone wishing to take this vaccine, God kiss you good luck.


Why? It has been declared safe. Yes the technology is new in that its been used first but people have been working on this for years, in fact one of its main proponents won the Noble Prize for Medicine in 2005 , I think.
This is probably safer than any vaccine made as your dna isn't directly involved, your Rna carries a message to your T4 and T10 cells to watch out for this , your Ts takes note , and if it finds a match produces a protein CD86? that attacks the Covid protein that allows it to "stick " onto your cells and reproduce.
The m in mRNA stands for messenger,  and now cancer, diabetes,  and multiple other chronic diseases might finally be cured using this and CRISPR.
People were afraid of penicillin too.





__





						COVID vaccines focus on the spike protein – but here's another target
					






					theconversation-com.cdn.ampproject.org


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Nobel 2006 for Medicine,  Craig Mello and Andrew Fire.....what great names " Mello and Fire" its like a band that plays jazz and Rock and Roll


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Just reading CNBC news site, apparently the US Army are in charge of distribution with UPS and FedEx, however they (the US Army) are holding back 50% of doses in case of " issues " 
The US Army has for some reason declared today  " D Day" .....Holy moly


----------



## Tintagel

I see that Spain don't expect to have their citizens fully vaccinated until July - September of 2021.  Holidays to Spain may be on hold for a little while yet.

How Will Spain And The Rest Of Europe Roll Out COVID Vaccinations? - Sanitas Health Plan Spain


----------



## Ceist Beag

Tintagel said:


> I see that Spain don't expect to have their citizens fully vaccinated until July - September of 2021.  Holidays to Spain may be on hold for a little while yet.
> 
> How Will Spain And The Rest Of Europe Roll Out COVID Vaccinations? - Sanitas Health Plan Spain


This might be worth a thread of it's own. What do people think of summer holidays abroad in 2021? Likely to happen or not, or is it a bit too early to predict until we know more about the vaccine roll out plans? I've heard some people suggest that things will be back to normal by Easter 2021 which seems a bit optmistic to me but I would love to get away again next summer, as I'm sure many others would.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Tintagel said:


> I see that Spain don't expect to have their citizens fully vaccinated until July - September of 2021.  Holidays to Spain may be on hold for a little while yet.
> 
> How Will Spain And The Rest Of Europe Roll Out COVID Vaccinations? - Sanitas Health Plan Spain


That would be expected Id say Europe as a whole would be similar.
Wonder if they are basing this on only having one vaccine?
By February 2021 there could be 5 available and this should increase the amount of people who are vaccinated. 

If this goes well I think we all will look forward to a few weeks in the Sun in 2021


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Jeremy Farrar of the Welcome Trust in the UK has said that everything going well( with no disruption to supply etc. )and 1000 doses a day over/per 500 clinics working everyday will take a year to vaccinate the UK population with 2 jabs.

No further details were added on Sky News this morning and I suspect that we might be in the same place as our infrastructure for such a roll out wouldn't be as robust as the UK, I hope dearly that I'm wrong.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

I know this thread is about the safety of the vaccines, but it might morph into the effectiveness, given that the virus appears to have mutated, and there is _*some*_ evidence that the mutation might be to do with the spike that is all important.

Not trying to scaremonger here, and there is now a rush to see what the mutation is, and how/if it affects the effectiveness of the present batch of vaccines.





__





						COVID vaccines focus on the spike protein – but here's another target
					






					theconversation-com.cdn.ampproject.org


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

New Covid strain: How worried should we be?
					

Scientists will keep a close eye on this variant to see if it is a better spreader than others.



					www.bbc.com
				




Other link posted above was incorrect, but it gives background of vaccines.  The above explains a bit about the mutation.


----------



## odyssey06

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> This is just another strain. The Italian strain was most prevalent in Ireland during the spring. The Spanish strain has been the most common in Europe during the second wave.
> Mutations are normal. In the short term there’s nothing to worry about.



Could it cause complication for the vaccines that are based on attenuated strain of virus rather than mRNA ones?
e.g. annual flu vaccine needs to include multiple strains


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> This is just another strain. The Italian strain was most prevalent in Ireland during the spring. The Spanish strain has been the most common in Europe during the second wave.
> Mutations are normal. In the short term there’s nothing to worry about.


Perhaps, but the mutation this time appears different as its being blamed either rightly or wrongly on the high levels of transmission in the greater London area and Kent. 

I agree that all viruses mutate its part of the viruses evolution and we know the flu mutates every year, and the vaccine changed accordingly and you are correct in saying the types of Covid-19 we have had are different. 

Just watching and reading the various articles there appears to be a concern that this mutation is specific to the viruses spike protein, hopefully Im wrong but when I saw that work has restarted on looking at the genetic make up of this strain my brain started rattling.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> Could it cause complication for the vaccines that are based on attenuated strain of virus rather than mRNA ones?
> e.g. annual flu vaccine needs to include multiple strains


When I told herself this morning she asked me what did they exactly say , I couldn't answer so forwarded the bbc link above.


----------



## Leo

jackswift said:


> For anyone wishing to take this vaccine, God kiss you good luck.



Appealing to God has proven to be  against COVID. I'll stick with science.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> From what I understand, yes.
> The mRNA vaccines will only be minorly (opposite of “bigly”) affected.


Thats a brave statement given that those vaccines are brand new and are only in circulation since last week..
My wife has been involved in vaccines since the early 90s and she has said it will be a long time before we know what we need to know definitively and expect issues. 
I admire your optimistic view though


----------



## odyssey06

*Moderna's* Covid-19 vaccine is 94 percent effective at preventing *illness *and appears to protect against *infection *as well, according to documents released Tuesday morning ahead of a meeting of advisors to the Food and Drug Administration, scheduled for Thursday...
There were approximately 2/3 fewer swabs that were positive in the vaccine group as compared to the placebo group at the pre-dose 2 timepoint, suggesting that some *asymptomatic infections start to be prevented* after the first dose.

This is significant as it would mean vaccinated people would not spread the disease.

Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee December 17, 2020 Meeting Briefing Document Addendum- Sponsor (fda.gov)


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> The above assumption is according to a U.K. Cabinet minister though, not to any scientist or medical expert.


No the scientific people in the UK are looking feverishly @ the new strains genetic make up at Porton Down, as they did in January.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> *Moderna's* Covid-19 vaccine is 94 percent effective at preventing *illness *and appears to protect against *infection *as well, according to documents released Tuesday morning ahead of a meeting of advisors to the Food and Drug Administration, scheduled for Thursday...
> There were approximately 2/3 fewer swabs that were positive in the vaccine group as compared to the placebo group at the pre-dose 2 timepoint, suggesting that some *asymptomatic infections start to be prevented* after the first dose.
> 
> This is significant as it would mean vaccinated people would not spread the disease.
> 
> Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee December 17, 2020 Meeting Briefing Document Addendum- Sponsor (fda.gov)


This is good news, of course again Moderna doesn't have its own manufacturing facilities so it will be manufactured by 3rd parties,  however they did start sourcing these in the summer and have signed contracts. 

Let's hope this gets approved too, add in Oxford/Astrazeneca and 2021 might be half decent.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> Not my view.  Kingsley Mills, stated it this morning.  One of the advantages of the mRNA vaccines. Even if the existing Pfizer or Moderna vaccines don’t work against the new London strain, only little modification will be required and no Stage Three testing.


I admire his optimistic view too.

Pfizer has more than one versions, and we know that just because one vaccine has been produced doesn't mean that research stops.
We now know mRna is "programmable " so if needs be I would imagine that be given a new set of instructions.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> To return to the topic of this thread...
> My concern with the safety of the new vaccine(s) would be “long-Covid equivalent” side-effects.
> 
> To elaborate...
> IIRC it wasn’t until about April this year we started hearing about long-Covid (and maybe a few months later before that became the commonly used term).
> Many people contracted Covid, were symptomatic, recovered, and a few months later had ongoing Covid-related issues.
> Covid is regarded as a respiratory infection, but long-Covid may affect any of a number of different organs.
> It took the experts by surprise.
> And long-Covid still seems to be a mystery and little is know about it.
> 
> Many vaccines give mild, short-lived, side effects. My fear is that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine may give, as I termed it earlier, “long-Covid equivalent” side effects.


Agreed there is evidence of lung scaring, chronic fatigue,  and its thought that the virus itself might and I stress might be able to reside in the bowel.

There are studies going on , very small populations of volunteers,  but I would say that we might be still be trying to understand the full effects of Covid and all its family for some time.

Ditto with the vaccine but like everything now only time and further research will tell.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

The BBC reported this morning on a report issued that now seems to indicate that as much as 1 in 10 people who were hospitalised with covid are now suffering or have suffered " Long Covid " and the effects are beyond what was thought initially. 
The TV report although brief also mentioned that long covid has affected all ages including the young. The recommendations are that people discharged from hospital should now be asked back for checkups after 6 weeks.

While the vaccine will probably help in  preventing death and assist in recovery time its reasonable to assume that Covid-19 will probably be now another "illness" that will place further issues on already stretched health care systems and of course the financial status of countries


----------



## Firefly

Regarding the roll-out of the vaccines....the Covid test centers seem to have worked well for people...could these be used? You get your appointment as per the Covid test and away you go..


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Firefly said:


> Regarding the roll-out of the vaccines....the Covid test centers seem to have worked well for people...could these be used? You get your appointment as per the Covid test and away you go..


There might be an hour or two of observation of recipient. I don't know if that happens but weren't most tests carried out outdoors and would it be possible to ensure the vaccine is kept safe.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Just reading that Pfizers distribution in the US is falling behind not because of manufacturing issues but with simple logistics. Allegedly batches aren't going/ arriving where they should thus comprising the vaccine. 
The US Army are meant to be co-ordinating but apparently its not going well with expected doses being cut for many states.
Add in the hack and things are getting complicated. 
My brother in law and sister in law in DC have tested positive , both work for the FDA and they have described things as chaos. 

We might have a long road ahead if this is repeated in Europe.


----------



## johnwilliams

also heard that there is problem getting ingredients in sufficient quantity  to manufacture vaccine


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

johnwilliams said:


> also heard that there is problem getting ingredients in sufficient quantity  to manufacture vaccine


Didn't hear that must be the States? I know a couple of Pfizers EU plants are producing a lot more "medium"  than normal and are 24hr ops now, one country loves it, other hates it used, to 35 hr weeks the latter.......

Europe might be in a better place as the  US will have a lot of competition for everything.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Paul O Mahoney said:


> The BBC reported this morning on a report issued that now seems to indicate that as much as 1 in 10 people who were hospitalised with covid are now suffering or have suffered " Long Covid " and the effects are beyond what was thought initially.
> The TV report although brief also mentioned that long covid has affected all ages including the young. The recommendations are that people discharged from hospital should now be asked back for checkups after 6 weeks.
> 
> While the vaccine will probably help in  preventing death and assist in recovery time its reasonable to assume that Covid-19 will probably be now another "illness" that will place further issues on already stretched health care systems and of course the financial status of countries


Just to add to this , its now estimated that as much as 200,000 people in the UK have long covid.
BBC this morning had a Dr on who literally unable to walk properly,  she has " had to fit her house out as if she were disabled " this is a 38 year old woman who even was in Africa to help with the Ebola. 
There were other people who had other terrible problems too and nobody seems to understand why its happening or how the virus can do this to the body.

I'm an eternal optimistic type but I'm becoming more concerned that even with vaccines this disease will have much longer repercussions than anyone could have foreseen and the knock on effects to everything that we took as being normal.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

How Will Moderna Meet The Demand For Its COVID-19 Vaccine?
					

Despite being founded a decade ago, Moderna has never had a product make it to market. And the company registered its first factory with the Food and Drug Administration just this week.




					www.npr.org
				




The above link should provide a little insight into Moderna and its now approved vaccine.

Its great news that we have 2 vaccines in play with as many as 19 possibles  in various stages of development.

The link shows "cookies " but I have used it and it does get to the report,  if not my apologies,  but a simple Google search will get it.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

This mornings FT has a few stories regarding " vaccines " already appearing on the dark web. Prices vary from $250 to $750 all payable by bitcoin.
These are emanating from both the US and China.


----------



## odyssey06

Great news re Moderna approved by FDA in US... its results in preventing infection and illness v encouraging.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

EU have authorised emergency use for Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, let the roll out begin.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> Pfizer have also bought a Novartis plant in Germany for the production of the vaccine.
> 
> I’m not sure if the production from this plant is included in their calculations, of enough vaccine for 8% of world’s population by by end of 2021.


I thought it was Biontech who bought that plant to make about 500m doses.
My wife is  quality head for all biotechnology plants in Europe and she's not involved in this plant.
Pfizer doesn't own Biontech this is only a partnership, Biontech wanted there own plant for decades now they have.


----------



## RichInSpirit

One thing to remember about the vaccine whoever the manufacturer is that there is a waiting period for it to give you protection against Covid.
You still have to mind yourself for a certain period.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

RichInSpirit said:


> One thing to remember about the vaccine whoever the manufacturer is that there is a waiting period for it to give you protection against Covid.
> You still have to mind yourself for a certain period.


Agreed, 
And I still think that the good habits of cleaning hands and mask wearing will be part of our lives for a long time. 
The vaccine(s) initially aren't the panacea we would like to have, and when international travel reopens Ill be wearing a mask .

This virus will continue to mutate and as we know vaccines do take time to change.


----------



## odyssey06

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> The more I think about the Pfizer vaccine the more sceptical I get.
> It a nutshell, if you contract Covid-19, it’ll make it asymptomatic. That’s it. Not that that in itself is a bad thing. You won’t be sick and you won’t die from Covid. However, you won’t have antibodies (AFAIK) and it won’t prevent you from passing on the virus.
> This last point is worth considering. It’ll be very difficult to achieve herd immunity with the Pfizer vaccine.



Do we know for sure that it makes you asymptomatic? Or are you raising it as a concern as we don't know for sure if it prevents infection?
If the former, it may still have role in protecting the most vulnerable, but doesn't seem suitable for potential spreaders.

I found this article which explains how the vaccines are good at protecting the lungs, but that it's an open question how quickly they repulse infection in the nose:
Here’s Why Vaccinated People Still Need to Wear a Mask - The New York Times (nytimes.com)


----------



## odyssey06

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> Sorry, I should clarify my point:
> It’s not so much that it makes you asymptomatic, but there appears to be no difference between someone that has contracted Covid and is asymptomatic and someone who has been Pfizer vaccinated and then exposed to the virus.



No difference in transmission, but difference in how severe the infection is.
That is one possibility for how the vaccine will take effect.

But do you have a study that clarifies that?
As I mentioned above, as far as i knew at the moment we don't know if it will prevent infection\transmission or not. 
The pfizer study tracked illness not infection.
If you have a more up to date study please share.


----------



## EmmDee

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> ...there appears to be no difference between someone that has contracted Covid and is asymptomatic and someone who has been Pfizer vaccinated and then exposed to the virus.



I think you might have misunderstood the reporting. There is currently no proof that the Pfizer vaccine prevents onward transmission - because they didn't specifically test for that yet. It would take a lot longer to test for that. But there is hope that it will reduce onward transmission


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

BaBa BlackSheep said:


> The more I think about the Pfizer vaccine the more sceptical I get.
> It a nutshell, if you contract Covid-19, it’ll make it asymptomatic. That’s it. Not that that in itself is a bad thing. You won’t be sick and you won’t die from Covid. However, you won’t have antibodies (AFAIK) and it won’t prevent you from passing on the virus.
> 
> This last point is worth considering. It’ll be very difficult to achieve herd immunity with the Pfizer vaccine.
> The TB vaccine (or inoculation?) prevents you (where effective) from getting TB and from passing it on. Hence TB is very rare and very difficult to contract. Herd immunity is very high.
> 
> There are many more vaccines in the pipeline. By this time next year I’d say we’ll have forgotten about the Pfizer vaccine.


You hold all the worries you want Dude because reading this you clearly have no idea what you are saying.

But carry on,  the science disagrees with you and all the data is available for both Pfizer/ BioNTech and Moderna vaccines.

Ill ask you this how can a person who is vaccinated pass on an active virus?
Ill give you hint the vaccine renders the spike protein inoperable and therefore prevents the virus from attaching to your cells and preventing it from reproducing and ?????

Now explain, exactly with the appropriate science why you think why a vaccinated person will pass on the virus.

You've been trying this on for a while now and I ignored your obvious mistakes in everything you have contributed,  but its time for you to explain why you hold your view.

And finally TB , Polio, or another vaccine is irrelevant as these vaccines are mRNa vaccines.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

EmmDee said:


> I think you might have misunderstood the reporting. There is currently no proof that the Pfizer vaccine prevents onward transmission - because they didn't specifically test for that yet. It would take a lot longer to test for that. But there is hope that it will reduce onward transmission


They are very sanguine on this given that the virus can't live without its spike protein that allows attachment to our cells.

And yes this will take time to confirm,  but both mRna vaccines operate in exactly the same way. 

Is this scenario plausible? 
Would both Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech have issued licence applications for this if it didn't do what most vaccines do?
The flu vaccine doesn't prevent  otherpeople from getting the flu but its rolled out in its billions every year.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

It should be also said that no virus has ever been eliminated but its vaccines that have suppressed them, smallpox, tb, polio, measles,   rubella, HIV, ebola etc are still around and someday they too might mutate and become an issue again. 
Vaccines aren't static things they too mutate based on what needs to be fought.


----------



## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> The flu vaccine doesn't prevent  otherpeople from getting the flu but its rolled out in its billions every year.



Can you clarify that ... Everything I have read suggests the flu vaccine does significantly reduce spread from a vaccinated person exposed to the virus (maybe because they are not hit with symptoms that trigger viral shedding)

If the vaccine protects the vaccinated person that is - not counting when the strain wasnt in the vaccine.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> Can you clarify that ... Everything I have read suggests the flu vaccine does significantly reduce spread from a vaccinated person exposed to the virus (maybe because they are not hit with symptoms that trigger viral shedding)
> 
> If the vaccine protects the vaccinated person that is - not counting when the strain wasnt in the vaccine.


I'll try, the flu like covid spreads by airborne droplets,  if a vaccinated person is amongst a group of people, or the general population they are unlikely to be the cause of passing on the flu, however they don't/can't prevent others from contracting the flu either from other sources like the general public.

The primary function of the flu vaccine is to prevent those most vulnerable from getting it and dying from it , its not designed to pass on immunity.

However if a high enough percentage of the population has the flu vaccine the virus can't spread as easily as most of the potential hosts are vaccinated.

Does that make sense  the virus is ever present any vaccine protects those vaccinated and those whos natural immune systems are strong enough to fend off the virus themselves also prevents a virus spreading.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Maybe this might be easier....
If you had 2 groups of 10 people one group had a person with covid with no symptoms the other with a vaccinated person,  which group would be more likely to become infected?
I'm not certain but I thought read they actually did this in trials.


----------



## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> I'll try, the flu like covid spreads by airborne droplets,  if a vaccinated person is amongst a group of people, or the general population they are unlikely to be the cause of passing on the flu, however they don't/can't prevent others from contracting the flu either from other sources like the general public.
> 
> The primary function of the flu vaccine is to prevent those most vulnerable from getting it and dying from it , its not designed to pass on immunity.
> 
> However if a high enough percentage of the population has the flu vaccine the virus can't spread as easily as most of the potential hosts are vaccinated.
> 
> Does that make sense  the virus is ever present any vaccine protects those vaccinated and those whos natural immune systems are strong enough to fend off the virus themselves also prevents a virus spreading.



I think there is possible scenario where a vaccine can protect against illness in those who receive it by protecting the lungs.
So illness is protected against.
But there is possibility they may still be infectious through virus shedding in the nose - for a period.
So infection is not 100% prevented but may be limited by the head start given  by the vaccine.
The head start to the lungs is bigger than the head start to nasal area.
That was outlined in the New York Times article I linked above, it explains it better.

This does not apply to nasal vaccines.


----------



## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Maybe this might be easier....
> If you had 2 groups of 10 people one group had a person with covid with no symptoms the other with a vaccinated person,  which group would be more likely to become infected?
> I'm not certain but I thought read they actually did this in trials.



I havent seen any trials that looked at that scenario. Would be great if we had data on it but it sounds like a challenge trial and I dont think they have even started yet.

I dont think any trial data released yet looks at onward transmission, main focus was on illness prevention.
Some looked at infection prevention by checking for viral load in vaccinated subjects v non vaxxed.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> I havent seen any trials that looked at that scenario. Would be great if we had data on it but it sounds like a challenge trial and I dont think they have even started yet.
> 
> I dont think any trial data released yet looks at onward transmission, main focus was on illness prevention.
> Some looked at infection prevention by checking for viral load in vaccinated subjects v non vaxxed.


I honestly read it somewhere,  it wouldn't be in brain otherwise,  I can see in my mind the rooms in cartoon type, visualisation of the data type of presentation. 
I simply cannot remember. I do recall though that these tests were carried out indoors obviously real life isn't indoors. 
It'll come to me eventually where I read that. 

On a another point,  the CEO of Biontech was just on the BBC news saying that they have tested 20 variants already and isn't concerned on vaccine effectiveness. 

However the BBC health reporter has said , again with graphs etc, that the new variant might defer the concept of "herd immunity " from July to next Autumn.....


----------



## Odea

I heard one expert on the radio during the week saying that there is no "live" Covid in the vaccine. Then yesterday on the Claire Byrne show another expert said that there *was* live Covid in the vaccine.   Which is it?


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Odea said:


> I heard one expert on the radio during the week saying that there is no "live" Covid in the vaccine. Then yesterday on the Claire Byrne show another expert said that there *was* live Covid in the vaccine.   Which is it?


The mRna vaccines only need the genetic sequence of covid to get your Rna to message your T cells, doesn't actually need any physical piece of the virus. 
Others like Astrazeneca use dead pieces of the virus to get your T cells to trigger. 
The latter is how all vaccines were made to date the former new technology.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Odea said:


> I heard one expert on the radio during the week saying that there is no "live" Covid in the vaccine. Then yesterday on the Claire Byrne show another expert said that there *was* live Covid in the vaccine.   Which is it?


Some vaccines not mRna use live attenuated virus or dead virus, the live attenuated types reduces the potency of the virus and your immune system generates an immune response. 
Some flu vaccines are live attenuated but the jury is out on effectiveness being higher than other vaccines. 
So some might have live and dead vaccines but I haven't heard of a live one yet


----------



## SoylentGreen

Does anyone know why Ireland is only getting a first delivery of 10,000 vaccines. 

Can we not store anymore?

Did we under order?

We we only allocated this amount?

If we are getting delivery on the 26th why are we waiting to the end of the month before the roll out?


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

SoylentGreen said:


> Does anyone know why Ireland is only getting a first delivery of 10,000 vaccines.
> 
> Can we not store anymore?
> 
> Did we under order?
> 
> We we only allocated this amount?
> 
> If we are getting delivery on the 26th why are we waiting to the end of the month before the roll out?


Its just the first batch from our allocation,  the EU negotiated on the members behalf .

I think the plan is to get batches of 10,000 a week.

Roll out is starting next week with healthcare workers and care homes first on the list, then over 70's with underlying conditions.


----------



## odyssey06

Our allocation is dependent on our population and specifically our population of vulnerable, so because we have a generally younger age profile than the EU we get even less per capita than say Germany.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Tony Blair with the backing of Professor Salisbury are advocating that people only get one jab initially, as its thought that the vaccinated person will be about 52% immune. Its argued that most of the immunity is gotten from the first dose, and by only giving one would increase people getting well quicker?
I'm not sure if this would be allowed,  doubt Pfizer/BioNTech would we willing to resubmit an application,  given that they are now working on the full licence application which will probably be done over the next 6 months and this licence will be huge in comparison to the emergency use .


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Tony Blair with the backing of Professor Salisbury are advocating that people only get one jab initially, as its thought that the vaccinated person will be about 52% immune. Its argued that most of the immunity is gotten from the first dose, and by only giving one would increase people getting well quicker?
> I'm not sure if this would be allowed,  doubt Pfizer/BioNTech would we willing to resubmit an application,  given that they are now working on the full licence application which will probably be done over the next 6 months and this licence will be huge in comparison to the emergency use .


Asked my wife about this and she agrees fully saying it would vaccinate a lot more more quickly and get to herd immunity quicker, and the second dose only gives another 40% immunity.
She said that most other vaccines developed would not be anywhere near 52% and they are used everyday.
She went to to say that it wouldn't be an issue for the present emergency licence and will probably be included in the main licence application anyway.
Thought she'd be against it.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> I am aware the Prof, but challenge trials haven't even started yet on any covid vaccine (see below), so I think there is some misunderstanding here.
> No vaccinated person in a trial as directly exposed to the virus.
> The vaccinated and placebo groups were selected at random, to try to match the groups in terms of their likely exposure to the virus.
> Initial focus was on how many in each group was infected.
> I think there are follow-up studies to see if there are less cases in the close contacts of vaccinated versus the placebo group, but no firm results yet, and the nature of such a study may make direct comparisons difficult - especially with the low number of infected in the vaccinated group.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> UK seeks to 'accelerate and optimize' clinical development of pandemic vaccines
> 
> 
> More than 360,000 people have signed up to the UK’s registry of people interested in participating in vaccine trials: the world’s first database of its kind. The UK is also exploring other measures – such as human challenge trials - to boost clinical development of vaccines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.biopharma-reporter.com


Some challenge trials were and are included in the clinical trials,  but under very strict rules and volunteers are normally handpicked and in sterile locations. 
I asked herself and she said as part of data collection from the vaccine roll-out these trials will be conducted extensively.
And I asked if a vaccinated person can pass on the virus she, said "if that happens the vaccine isn't working" but she did say its possible but very very rare,  but also said that not enough is known yet.


----------



## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Some challenge trials were and are included in the clinical trials,  but under very strict rules and volunteers are normally handpicked and in sterile locations.



I really need to see a source for that... have searched online several times for challenge trial data and drawn a blank.

None of the published data for Oxford, Moderna, Pfizer shows challenge trial results.

The information available online suggests what you have outlined above is planned in the new year in UK but hasnt even started yet...
Unless it has been done on the QT / internal basis.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> I really need to see a source for that... have searched online several times for challenge trial data and drawn a blank.
> 
> None of the published data for Oxford, Moderna, Pfizer shows challenge trial results.
> 
> The information available online suggests what you have outlined above is planned in the new year in UK but hasnt even started yet...
> Unless it has been done on the QT / internal basis.


It is part of the process of the clinical trails,  as for providing proof I can't,  my wife said that all vaccines she has been involved with carry out these types of trials. 
Now she said those vaccines are different for example prenvar which was initially produced for children who were dying of pneumonia due to a virus. 

Additionally it would be very rare for every detail of clinical trials and all the details of multiple processes to be published online. 
Competitive advantage is still very much part of the game here.


----------



## RedOnion

Paul O Mahoney said:


> It is part of the process of the clinical trails, as for providing proof I can't, my wife said that all vaccines she has been


If they've already done it, why the big deal about the first human challenge trial starting in January?









						Irish company to develop world’s first human challenge trial for Covid-19
					

Initial study by Open Orphan due to begin in January in London




					www.irishtimes.com


----------



## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> It is part of the process of the clinical trails,  as for providing proof I can't,  my wife said that all vaccines she has been involved with carry out these types of trials.
> Now she said those vaccines are different for example prenvar which was initially produced for children who were dying of pneumonia due to a virus.
> 
> Additionally it would be very rare for every detail of clinical trials and all the details of multiple processes to be published online.
> Competitive advantage is still very much part of the game here.



It hasnt been part of the process of any of the covid vaccines in EU / US approval process.
You would need regulatory approval to ensure such trials conducted in ethical manner.

It has happened with other respiratory viruses vaccine development.
But that doesnt mean it is a standard feature.

If the data hasnt been published and to the standard regulators would require I would not afford it any weight.









						UK push to 'give people Covid' for vaccine trial - BBC News
					

Volunteers will be deliberately exposed to the virus in trials due to start in January.




					www.google.com


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

OK maybe what has been done during the clinical trails wasn't a challenge trial like the ones linked above. 
But how do the know that the vaccine is effective . 
I notice also of these are not Pfizer run trials, and are in fact nothing to do with the clinical trails that Pfizer conducted.
I can only ask what she is capable of telling me, and since she's being doing this a long time professionally I simply passed on what she said.
I ve tried to be open and honest here.....but it appears that's not enough


----------



## odyssey06

Paul O Mahoney said:


> OK maybe what has been done during the clinical trails wasn't a challenge trial like the ones linked above.
> But how do the know that the vaccine is effective .
> I notice also of these are not Pfizer run trials, and are in fact nothing to do with the clinical trails that Pfizer conducted.
> I can only ask what she is capable of telling me, and since she's being doing this a long time professionally I simply passed on what she said.
> I ve tried to be open and honest here.....but it appears that's not enough



Appreciate the input from that angle but might be better until the info is a bit more mature if you know what I mean.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> Appreciate the input from that angle but might be better until the info is a bit more mature if you know what I mean.


I asked again they don't do human challenge trials as described they do cohort trials as part of the clinical trails as they feel they are more appropriate for other reasons.

She also said that clinical trials of larger populations have in the past rendered human challenge trials unnecessary as they added nothing to the development or betterment of a vaccine, in their experience.
And its usually academics that find these useful, for a lot of reasons.


----------



## johnwilliams

paul o mahoney "Tony Blair with the backing of Professor Salisbury are advocating that people only get one jab initially, as its thought that the vaccinated person will be about 52% immune. Its argued that most of the immunity is gotten from the first dose, and by only giving one would increase people getting well quicker? "thanks was about to ask this .
question if we go that route could the virus become immune like  some antibiotics are becoming useless (from people not taking full dose and virus adapting)?


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

johnwilliams said:


> paul o mahoney "Tony Blair with the backing of Professor Salisbury are advocating that people only get one jab initially, as its thought that the vaccinated person will be about 52% immune. Its argued that most of the immunity is gotten from the first dose, and by only giving one would increase people getting well quicker? "thanks was about to ask this .
> question if we go that route could the virus become immune like  some antibiotics are becoming useless (from people not taking full dose and virus adapting)?


I think the thinking around this is that the immunity rate would be over 50% of  a greater proportion of the population with limited resources, then double doses would be rolled out in time......but  vastly more people would be better off in fighting the virus.......and it does make sense. 

Wonder if its acceptable


----------



## johnwilliams

if someone is seriously ill with covid in icu gets vaccine this instant ,how long before we see this patient start to recover from covid?


----------



## RedOnion

johnwilliams said:


> if someone is seriously ill with covid in icu gets vaccine this instant ,how long before we see this patient start to recover from covid?


A vaccine doesn't cure someone who already has it. That's not how vaccines work.
And, you can't actually get the vaccine if you've currently got it.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

johnwilliams said:


> if someone is seriously ill with covid in icu gets vaccine this instant ,how long before we see this patient start to recover from covid?


I think Astrazeneca has developed an effective antibody drug and that is hoped to help, of course Regeneron has another but its expensive and we know it " cured " Trump in record time but seems to have fallen away from the global gaze recently.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

UK recruits first global patient to antibody treatment study to protect against COVID-19
					

The world’s first participant in a new antibody treatment study to protect against COVID-19 has been recruited at the University College London Hospitals (UCLH) NHS Foundation Trust.



					www.nihr.ac.uk


----------



## Laramie

If vaccines are 90% effective, that suggests that there is a 10% chance that a person who is vaccinated might still pick up the virus?


----------



## odyssey06

Laramie said:


> If vaccines are 90% effective, that suggests that there is a 10% chance that a person who is vaccinated might still pick up the virus?



The effectivess was measured at preventing symptoms.
Unclear how many people still picked up the virus and were potentially contagious for a period without any symptoms.


----------



## Laramie

odyssey06 said:


> The effectivess was measured at preventing symptoms.


So, if I get vaccinated and the person sitting beside me in the pub/restaurant/plane has not been vaccinated, there is a chance I could still pick it up?


----------



## odyssey06

Laramie said:


> So, if I get vaccinated and the person sitting beside me in the pub/restaurant/plane has not been vaccinated, there is a chance I could still pick it up?



Yes there is a 0-10 percent chance of still getting illness depending on the vaccine.
And probably a similar or higher chance of being infected without illness but be contagious to others.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Laramie said:


> So, if I get vaccinated and the person sitting beside me in the pub/restaurant/plane has not been vaccinated, there is a chance I could still pick it up?


No there isn't any chance


----------



## Sophrosyne

Laramie said:


> So, if I get vaccinated and the person sitting beside me in the pub/restaurant/plane has not been vaccinated, there is a chance I could still pick it up?



The HSE has published information on* COVID-19 vaccine. 

“Protection from COVID-19*

After having both doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, most people will be protected against the virus.

There is a small chance you might still get COVID-19 even if you have the vaccine. Even if you do get COVID-19, the vaccine can reduce the seriousness of your symptoms.

We do not know yet if having the vaccine stops you from spreading COVID-19 to other people.

The HSE, Department of Health and the World Health Organization recommends people get the COVID-19 vaccine when it is offered to them.

Even after you get the vaccine, continue to follow public health advice on how to stop the spread of the virus. For example, social distancing, wearing a face covering and washing your hands properly and often.”


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> Yes there is a 0-10 percent chance of still getting illness depending on the vaccine.
> And probably a similar or higher chance of being infected without illness but be contagious to others.


The vaccine doesn't kill the virus,  your immune system does that but the vaccine instructs your immune T cells what to look for, as the virus was unrecognisable by your immune system. 
Obviously there are going to be exceptional circumstances, nobody has all the information on how the virus actually behaves in every individual and only time will clear these issues up, or create new issues. 
So,if you have been properly vaccinated the virus can't make you sick.
For every 100 people vaccinated 90 min will/should develop an immune response that kills the virus.


----------



## joe sod

I see the Oxford vaccine now approved by the UK authorities. There have been indications that the european regulators have been looking for more information. That being so they should account for the new information they get very quickly and not resort to the usual bureaucratic foot dragging. Once the scientists are happy the bureaucrats need to get on with it. Even the regulation of the pFizer vaccine was unnecessarily held up by at least a week by foot dragging. The politicians knew weeks beforehand that it would be authorised


----------



## seamus m

If 4 people died in Galway nursing home yesterday I would presume they died after getting first Jab ,how many more are like this? A healthcare worker I know thinks we shouldn't be giving it to over 90 s as "a lot are not around for second one ".


----------



## Ceist Beag

seamus m said:


> A healthcare worker I know thinks we shouldn't be giving it to over 90 s as "a lot are not around for second one ".


Wow ... I mean why not just stick them in a box and be done with it!


----------



## odyssey06

seamus m said:


> If 4 people died in Galway nursing home yesterday I would presume they died after getting first Jab ,how many more are like this? A healthcare worker I know thinks we shouldn't be giving it to over 90 s as "a lot are not around for second one ".



There was an incident in norway where 20 nursing home residents died soon after receiving the vaccine.
The strain the vaccine places on the system could have been a factor.
I think guidelines have been revised to take into account how far someone is on the 'frailty' scale now.
So not just that they are over 90, but how frail they are.


----------



## seamus m

It's nothing to do with sticking them in box ,is the jab doing it ?


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> There was an incident in norway where 20 nursing home residents died soon after receiving the vaccine.
> The strain the vaccine places on the system could have been a factor.
> I think guidelines have been revised to take into account how far someone is on the 'frailty' scale now.
> So not just that they are over 90, but how frail they are.


I thought after a investigation it was found that they couldn't link the vaccine to those deaths. 
Anyway my mother in law (92) got hers last week and only complained of a bit of soreness in the arm.
As you said frailty is an issue the vaccine will "kick start" the immune system and frail people by definition will not have robust immune systems


----------



## RedOnion

seamus m said:


> If 4 people died in Galway nursing home yesterday I would presume they died after getting first Jab


To aid discussion with facts, only 3 of the 4 residents who died yesterday had received the first dose of vaccine.
The nursing home in question had a resident test positive for the virus the week before they started administering the vaccine.
50% of their staff have tested positive at this stage.


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

It looks like the Astrazeneca vaccine reduces transmission by 67% . This is a remarkable result and if the other vaccines were anywhere close we might get out of this a little bit earlier.

The study hasn't been peer reviewed yet.


----------



## odyssey06

Yes encouraging study on the Oxford \ AZ vaccine reducing transmission - note the study hasn't completed peer review yet:
_A single dose of the Astrazeneca vaccine may reduce transmission of coronavirus by two thirds, according to a new study which provides a major boost to the UK’s recommendation that the second jab should be delayed for up to 12 weeks. Researchers said that the first dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab offers protection of 76% up to three months and may reduce transmission by 67% – with efficacy rising to 82.4% after the second dose 12 weeks later._









						A single dose of Astrazeneca Covid-19 vaccine may reduce transmission by two thirds, study says
					

Ireland expects to receive its first shipment of the newly-approved vaccine next week.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Purple

odyssey06 said:


> Yes encouraging study on the Oxford \ AZ vaccine reducing transmission - note the study hasn't completed peer review yet:
> _A single dose of the Astrazeneca vaccine may reduce transmission of coronavirus by two thirds, according to a new study which provides a major boost to the UK’s recommendation that the second jab should be delayed for up to 12 weeks. Researchers said that the first dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab offers protection of 76% up to three months and may reduce transmission by 67% – with efficacy rising to 82.4% after the second dose 12 weeks later._
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A single dose of Astrazeneca Covid-19 vaccine may reduce transmission by two thirds, study says
> 
> 
> Ireland expects to receive its first shipment of the newly-approved vaccine next week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thejournal.ie


That's good news. People need to remember that the aim here is to reduce the R number so that infections don't become outbreaks and pandemics.


----------



## odyssey06

Purple said:


> That's good news. People need to remember that the aim here is to reduce the R number so that infections don't become outbreaks and pandemics.



And especially good to see those figures from the Oxford AZ vaccine which is lined up for mass rollout to the biggest group (18-55 year olds), who may be less vulnerable to the virus but are big drivers of spread.


----------



## Merowig

Very promising news from Israel 








						Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic COVID-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine
					

Israel's largest healthcare provider on Sunday reported a 94% drop in symptomatic COVID-19 infections among 600,000 people who received two doses of the Pfizer's vaccine in the country's biggest study to date.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## odyssey06

The first challenge trial to deliberately expose vaccinated volunteers to the virus will start in the coming weeks in UK









						Covid-19: UK researchers launch world-first study that will deliberately infect people with virus
					

The trial will start in the coming weeks.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

BBC are reporting that the React Study in the UK has found a 2/3rds reduction in infections. It doesn't appear to give any clear reasons for the reduction ie vaccines or lockdown

Edit : the Prof who runs this program has just said the reduction probably isn't attributable to the vaccine rollout. 








						Strong decline in coronavirus across England since January, React study shows
					

Study finds infections fell by two-thirds - and more in London - but warns virus levels remain high.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Paul O Mahoney

Coronavirus spread slowed by vaccines, study suggests
					

There was a 75% reduction in staff at Addenbrooke's Hospital testing positive after a vaccination.



					www.bbc.com
				




It now seems that the vaccines are helping in the reduction of transmission and preventing people becoming seriously ill the study as yet hasn't been reviewed but is being described as good/great news.
The data from a slew of countries seems to suggest that all the questions we had about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines are slowly being answered, and those answers are what many of us hoped-for.


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## SlurrySlump

I am beginning to wonder why we have so many Covid cases with so many people vaccinated.

How many "breakthrough infections" are being recorded daily.  Is it with people who got the AstraZeneca vaccination?

Why aren't we being told this information?


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## odyssey06

SlurrySlump said:


> I am beginning to wonder why we have so many Covid cases with so many people vaccinated.
> 
> How many "breakthrough infections" are being recorded daily.  Is it with people who got the AstraZeneca vaccination?
> 
> Why aren't we being told this information?



I'm a bit surprised about the rising cases myself given that we're coming out of summer, we still have many measures in place and we have large numbers vaccinated, and while the vaccines don't block transmission 100% the early indication were that it significantly reduced it. The delta variant has changed the rules of the game.

Why aren't we being told? Well, you are assuming we have even this information?

Information is still being collated on how the various vaccines fare versus the delta variant, but from the information in other countries there's nothing to suggest someone fully vaccinated with AZ is noticeably different than Pfizer or Moderna in protection.
In Israel, who were something of a trial country for Pfizer, there seems to be some concern that the protection given from Pfizer is dropping after 6 months and they are planning booster shots.
For all we know, AZ might afford longer term protection.

Given that the Janssen/Johnson&Johnson vaccine is single dose, that would be the one I'd be most concerned about versus delta variant.
If anyone should be targeted for booster doses, they seem to the ones who should be prioritised if over 50.

It's not authorised here, but there seems to be some indication that the Chinese vaccines are faring poorly versus the Delta variant.
The Russian Sputnik seems to hold up well, assuming you get a proper batch of it!


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## EmmDee

A few points... The vaccines significantly reduce the effect of the virus but don't fully prevent catching it or passing it on.

The delta variant is significantly more transmissible than the original... The US have estimated up to an R value or 8 or 9 which would be similar to chickenpox. Without high vaccination rates, it could be caught in seconds even outdoors. So the increase in rates need to be taken in the context of what could happen without vaccinations. 

There are still pockets of population still partially or totally unvaccinated especially under 30. They are obviously pushing it hard but will need to get to over 80% of total population (or something similar) to bring down rates to close to negligible.


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## SlurrySlump

odyssey06 said:


> Why aren't we being told? Well, you are assuming we have even this information?


I would imagine that it would be a simple question to ask the infected person who has been vaccinated, what type of vaccine they were given?  This information could then be used to target individuals who might need a booster.

It's a bit like the "community transmission".  When the track and trace investigators were phoning people, they never seemed to ask people about their movements over the previous week. They only asked people who they were in contact with.


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## SPC100

Look at the death rates in comparison to infections. There are much less deaths.

Our current daily cases are above two of our three previous peaks, but our deaths are at all time low.

Vaccine seems like a likely cause for that.


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## Paul O Mahoney

US drug regulator limits use of J&J Covid vaccine
					

The single shot vaccine is less protective than those developed by Pfizer and Moderna.




					www.thejournal.ie
				




I caught a mention of this yesterday but didn't really hear all the details, but I think it deserves to be highlighted. 

For me it does show that despite the best technology available vaccines do have side effects and these will become more known as more data is collected.

This was inevitable but no doubt the actual facts will be ignored and the conspiracy theorists will use this news to further their various views.


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## odyssey06

New study - vaccines prevented 20 million covid deaths









						Vaccines prevented nearly 20 million COVID deaths, study shows
					

Using mathematical modeling, researchers found that vaccines cut the potential worldwide death toll in half.




					www.axios.com


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## michaelm

I guess it's an interesting meta-analysis.  I note that one of the lead authors receives funding from GlaxoSmithKline, and the WHO, and is on an advisory board for Moderna.  Methinks the vaccines generally over promised and under delivered.


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## Leo

michaelm said:


> Methinks the vaccines generally over promised and under delivered.


I think that's more down to a lack of understanding among some who thought they would be a silver bullet. The medical community were always clear that wouldn't be the case, but some just didn't want to hear it. The data is out there to show how effective they were in preventing death.


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## michaelm

The vaccinations seem to have made no difference to death rate amongst children and a negligible difference to under 50's.  A more equitable global distribution targetted at over 50's and at-risk groups was perhaps the way to go.


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## odyssey06

I think there was a period where hopes rose for what the vaccines could do - for Alpha \ Delta variants there was good data showing reduction in infection \ transmission \ infectiousness of vaccinated to breakthrough infections.
Also, we didn't know what variants were around the corner.
We ended up with relatively mild Omicron, it could have gone otherwise.
So that was behind a lot of the rollout.

Then safety concerns emerged with some of the non mRNA vaccines which had been lined up for younger age groups and wider \ easier global distribution. Lots of non mRNA vaccines ended up getting destroyed I think. Had we only had the non mRNA vaccines, we would have still used them on older groups, but the risk v benefit analysis changed as you went down the age groups.


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## Leo

michaelm said:


> The vaccinations seem to have made no difference to death rate amongst children and a negligible difference to under 50's.  A more equitable global distribution targetted at over 50's and at-risk groups was perhaps the way to go.


At first reading that might seem like the best call, but you have to consider the role of children as transmitters of the disease to parents / grandparents. In my extended family, the majority of cases trace back to the kids.


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## michaelm

Yes, children were transmitters, as were we all.  But the vaccination did not prevent infection or transmission.  I don't know the numbers but I suspect that the vast majority of the population had Covid.  7 of 8 people in my house had it.  Personally, I had 3 jabs and 2 doses of Covid.


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## odyssey06

michaelm said:


> Yes, children were transmitters, as were we all.  But the vaccination did not prevent infection or transmission.  I don't know the numbers but I suspect that the vast majority of the population had Covid.  7 of 8 people in my house had it.  Personally, I had 3 jabs and 2 doses of Covid.


Vaccination did prevent (significantly reduce) infection and transmission for variants prior to Omicron, during the months after vaccination when antibodies were present (as opposed to longer lasting memory cells).


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## Leo

michaelm said:


> Yes, children were transmitters, as were we all. But the vaccination did not prevent infection or transmission.


There is no doubt that vaccination reduced transmission and therefore infection rates, but as above, the level of protection decreased over time and with the new variants.


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## Paul O Mahoney

michaelm said:


> Yes, children were transmitters, as were we all.  But the vaccination did not prevent infection or transmission.  I don't know the numbers but I suspect that the vast majority of the population had Covid.  7 of 8 people in my house had it.  Personally, I had 3 jabs and 2 doses of Covid.


Well the figures are available by a simple Google search, officially 1.6m people have had covid 19 but I suspect that its probably more but even at 25% more that 2m, I don't think it's that high but there is probably a considerable amount of people who didn't report symptoms online. Even at 2m and a population of 5.2m isn't even a majority let alone a " vast majority ". The " vast majority " would apply to the vaccine take up at over 90% 

My own family of 4 has had 3 cases but using that isolated example doesn't extrapolate to the entire population, we are all vaccinated too.

Omnicorn and all its variants is substantially more transmisable in the population,  add in that the vaccines effects do diminish over time, 6 months the agreed length of time. 

Of course the "human effect " on the increase in transmissions is often overlooked,  a vast minority are now not doing the basic good health practices that we know reduce transmission,  mask wearing anywhere is probably less than 10% , hand sanitizing lower and some premises don't have sanitiser available including Dublin Bus.

Vaccines came with warnings that they alone were not the panacea of all aspects of the virus and we had a responsibility too by following good health practices,  but its easier to blame the vaccines rather than human nature. 

Vaccines has reduced transmission and saved millions of lives , the present estimates by the WHO, are the 20m people haven't died of Covid-19 due to vaccines.


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## michaelm

Yeah, "vast majority" is likely a wild estimate.  'Majority' might have been more defensible.  Personally, a sizeable majority of people I know have had Covid, a number have had it twice. Who knows how under reported it is.  I didn't report either of my cases.


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## Tintagel

A friend had no problems with his first two vaccinations nor with his booster. He went for his second booster recently and was very unwell, with flu like symptoms for 24 hours.  Is this common?


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## odyssey06

Tintagel said:


> A friend had no problems with his first two vaccinations nor with his booster. He went for his second booster recently and was very unwell, with flu like symptoms for 24 hours.  Is this common?


That's how I felt after my first Pfizer vaccine...

By any chance was this booster Moderna and previous were Pfizer?
Anecdotally, Moderna seems to hit harder in terms of the temporary cold \ flu symptoms.


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## Ceist Beag

Yeah a lot of people I know (myself included), who initially got Pfizer for the first two and then Moderna for the booster, found the Moderna left us feeling a lot worse off for a day or two.


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## Kimmagegirl

odyssey06 said:


> By any chance was this booster Moderna and previous were Pfizer?


Is there a choice available?  I'm due for my second booster soon.


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## odyssey06

Kimmagegirl said:


> Is there a choice available?  I'm due for my second booster soon.


Seems to be pot luck... if you are making an appointment some pharmacies offer a choice. If it is say your GP or an MVC you don't seem to get a choice.


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## TinyChamp

SPC100 said:


> Look at the death rates in comparison to infections. There are much less deaths.
> 
> Our current daily cases are above two of our three previous peaks, but our deaths are at all time low.
> 
> Vaccine seems like a likely cause for that.


Yeah, the vaccines seem to reducing severity of illness if not the incidence


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## WaterWater

Tintagel said:


> A friend had no problems with his first two vaccinations nor with his booster. He went for his second booster recently and was very unwell, with flu like symptoms for 24 hours. Is this common?


I am also hearing this. Family members that had no problems with the first three jabs are getting flu like symptoms after the second booster.  Have they changed the formula I wonder?


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## odyssey06

WaterWater said:


> I am also hearing this. Family members that had no problems with the first three jabs are getting flu like symptoms after the second booster.  Have they changed the formula I wonder?


It's probably that they got one vaccine originally and are now getting Moderna which seems to trigger a stronger immune reaction - at the cost of tough immediate short term side effects. I think I read something to the effect Moderna has more mRNA bang for buck in it than Pfizer also.









						Moderna vs. Pfizer: Is There a “Best” mRNA Vaccine?
					

Both of the mRNA vaccines available in the US are highly effective against severe COVID-19, but recent studies suggest that Moderna’s elicits a stronger immune response and might be better at preventing breakthrough infections.




					www.the-scientist.com


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## WaterWater

odyssey06 said:


> It's probably that they got one vaccine originally and are now getting Moderna which seems to trigger a stronger immune reaction


I would prefer one of the original ones, like I had before. I don't want to be sick from a vaccine.


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## Bronco Lane

I am a two Astrazeneca and a Pfizer booster recipient.   I don't wish to get the Moderna as a booster. Read too many reports of people getting or having their tinnitus increasing after the Moderna.

Can I have a choice of booster?


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## michaelm

Ask your GP or Pharmacy which one they give.  I don't know whether they are still running Vaccine Centres.  You can just decline if it's not the one you want and try to make a different appointment. I've had 2 x Pfizer and a Moderna chaser . . I've had the Covid twice . . I'm done with vaccines.


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## Bronco Lane

michaelm said:


> I've had 2 x Pfizer and a Moderna chaser . . I've had the Covid twice . . I'm done with vaccines.


I was only discussing this with the other half this morning. We each have been jabbed 3 times but with still got Covid albeit a low dose.

Everyone says the same thing...."but it would have been much worse if you hadn't been vaccinated".


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## Mamamia22

Why would you boost your immunity to a strain that is no longer in circulation i.e. Wuhan ? I don’t understand how a booster can offer protection when many mutations have occurred. 

Would you take a two year old flu jab?  Personally I would not. Neither would it be offered to me as they are updated annually to match the top 3 or 4 variants in circulation. Otherwise they don’t give protection. Occasionally they don’t get the cocktail correct. A few years back I got Aussie flu as it wasn’t included in the jab.


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## odyssey06

Mamamia22 said:


> Why would you boost your immunity to a strain that is no longer in circulation i.e. Wuhan ? I don’t understand how a booster can offer protection when many mutations have occurred.
> 
> Would you take a two year old flu jab?  Personally I would not. Neither would it be offered to me as they are updated annually to match the top 3 or 4 variants in circulation. Otherwise they don’t give protection. Occasionally they don’t get the cocktail correct. A few years back I got Aussie flu as it wasn’t included in the jab.



It's not the same situation.

The covid vaccines also worked very effectively against Alpha and Delta variants in terms of protection against infection.

The booster boosts your immunity against coronavirus strains including Omicron. It triggers neutralizing antibodies against Omicron, though fewer than it triggered for other variants. Omicron has more mutations than the other strains but not so many that if vaccinated your immune system doesn't recognise it as covid.

And these antibodies wane.
Importantly against all strains it provides durable protection against severe covid - through your immune system T cells.
This protection wanes more slowly and the seems to wane faster in older people.
So that's why a booster of the same vaccine for covid can still be beneficial - more so for those who need the boost or if you are dealing with vulnerable people, then when boosted you are less likely to get infected.

A study of triple vaccinated people in Qatar versus Omicron showed a 52% reduction in cases, although this wanes after 4 months.

Whereas if you get an influenza A strain in the flu vaccine that is a mis-match to the strains, there doesn't appear to be any immune benefit.
There are some indications that influenza B protection is more widespread \ less specific - it hits children hardest. So a 2 year old flu jab with influenza B in it would still be beneficial.









						Should you wait for an Omicron vaccine—or get your next booster now?
					

With Omicron subvariant BA.5 on the rise, many Americans are debating how best to protect themselves. Here's what experts say.




					fortune.com
				




_Studies found that COVID-19 vaccines elicit T cells that recognize the Omicron variant despite the many mutations in its spike protein.

The vaccines were designed to teach the immune system to recognize a key part of the spike protein. But they were developed using the initial SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Studies have found that antibodies generated by these vaccines don’t recognize their targets as well in heavily mutated variants like Omicron.
They observed substantially fewer memory B cells and neutralizing antibodies in the blood of people 6 months after vaccination. Memory B cells help to quickly produce antibodies against previously encountered viruses or other pathogens. Having fewer neutralizing antibodies increases the risk of “breakthrough” infections—when vaccinated people are reinfected.
In contrast to antibodies, the team found that T cell responses from the vaccines recognized all variants, including Delta and Omicron. The majority of T cell responses remained effective against Omicron. Six months after vaccination, 84% of CD4+ (helper) T cell responses and 85% of CD8+ (killer) T cell responses against Omicron remained the same compared to early variants...
 Despite reduced antibody responses against the variants, T cells serve as a second line of defense. This may help to explain why Omicron infections, while easily spread, are less likely to lead to severe disease in fully vaccinated people._









						COVID-19 vaccines induce immune response to Omicron
					

Studies found that COVID-19 vaccines elicit T cells that recognize the Omicron variant despite the many mutations in its spike protein.




					www.nih.gov


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## Mamamia22

I had covid around four months ago. I had not been vaccinated at all. It was certainly an unpleasant few days but no where near as bad as Aussie flu which left me with pneumonia. I am over 50 and have an underlying condition. I recovered. I’m not convinced that a 2 year old booster has anything to add to my now measurable naturally acquired immunity to omicron. Naturally acquired immunity has not been discussed much by the media, but surely it must play an important role. I will take a flu jab though when it’s offered.


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## odyssey06

Mamamia22 said:


> I had covid around four months ago. I had not been vaccinated at all. It was certainly an unpleasant few days but no where near as bad as Aussie flu which left me with pneumonia. I am over 50 and have an underlying condition. I recovered. I’m not convinced that a 2 year old booster has anything to add to my now measurable naturally acquired immunity to omicron. Naturally acquired immunity has not been discussed much by the media, but surely it must play an important role. I will take a flu jab though when it’s offered.


If you have recently had Omicron, why would you be so concerned about an Omicron specific booster?
Rather strange questions.

Actually the booster you should want is a non-Omicron one, as effectively you have already been vaccinated v Omicron.

You were probably rather lucky you got Omicron unvaccinated rather than the earlier strains.

Natural acquired immunity wanes also, although based on this study Omicron it wanes more slowly v Omicron for naturally acquired immunity.
The headline refers to antibody immunity v protection.
Protection against severe covid is more long lasting for both types.
_
For those with no history of vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infection during a prior-variant wave appeared to provide about 50 percent protection against symptomatic infection during the omicron wave, and this “natural immunity” was associated with almost the same degree of protection even a year after infection. 
*The combination of prior, full vaccination and prior infection was maximally protective*: Individuals with prior infection and three doses of either mRNA vaccine were, overall, nearly 80 percent protected from symptomatic infection during the omicron wave._






						Qatar Omicron-Wave Study Shows Slow Decline of Natural Immunity, Rapid Decline of Vaccine Immunity
					

A recent Pfizer or Moderna mRNA-vaccine booster provided good but temporary protection against infection by the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant.




					news.weill.cornell.edu


----------



## odyssey06

This is what happened when Omicron hit Hong Kong - older demographic without immunity from either vaccines or previous infection.

Even if Omicron is less severe, it is more infectious. IN the numbers game of hospital capacity, without vaccines, it is major threat to capacity.









						Study sheds light on death spike in Hong Kong COVID-19 surge
					

An Omicron spike in Hong Kong with high mortality may be due to low vaccine uptake in older people.




					www.cidrap.umn.edu


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## johnmck

Spent a week on a ward with 4 men in 30s and 40s with heart issues. Not what I was there for. Also hearing this from somebody who works in health profession. What has caused all these heart conditions in young men ?


----------



## odyssey06

johnmck said:


> Spent a week on a ward with 4 men in 30s and 40s with heart issues. Not what I was there for. Also hearing this from somebody who works in health profession. What has caused all these heart conditions in young men ?


Vaccines can cause myocarditis. Long covid can put you at risk of developing cardiac issues. Pre covid there were heart issues emerging with athletes.


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## johnmck

odyssey06 said:


> Vaccines can cause myocarditis. Long covid can put you at risk of developing cardiac issues. Pre covid there were heart issues emerging with athletes.


None of these lads had long convid. One was blaming the booster !


----------



## odyssey06

johnmck said:


> None of these lads had long convid. One was blaming the booster !



It is possible, although such severe adverse effects are less likely with a booster dose (assuming original vaccine was mRNA):









						Do COVID boosters cause more or fewer side effects? How quickly does protection wane? Your questions answered
					

Fewer people reported needing to miss work after their booster, compared to their second dose.




					theconversation.com


----------



## Leo

johnmck said:


> Spent a week on a ward with 4 men in 30s and 40s with heart issues. ... What has caused all these heart conditions in young men ?


How many would there have been pre-covid? Is it higher or lower now? A single random experience is not indicative of anything.

The increasing prevalence of heart disease in younger adults has been a concern for some time. 

It's easy to blame a booster for early heart issues while continuing with a poor diet and little or no exercise.


----------



## Purple

Leo said:


> How many would there have been pre-covid? Is it higher or lower now? A single random experience is not indicative of anything.
> 
> The increasing prevalence of heart disease in younger adults has been a concern for some time.
> 
> It's easy to blame a booster for early heart issues while continuing with a poor diet and little or no exercise.


I've developed problems eating gluten. I blame electric cars. Before there were electric cars I'd no problem. Because I just think* correlation does actually equal causation.

*"Just Thinking" means holding a view on a topic without examining the data or reading expert opinions etc.


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## Leo

Too much amateur conclusion drawing now, closing this.


----------

