# Will Allied Irish Bank survive in the long term



## pinkyBear (5 Aug 2010)

Hi Guys,

With the massive losses posted by AIB, and given that even the UK banks are showing signs of recovery. Does AIB have a future?????

P..


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## MrEBear (5 Aug 2010)

Really the question should be, will the Irish Government spend more of our hard earned money to save another dying bank? I mean they aren't exactly known for learning from their mistakes.


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## pinkyBear (5 Aug 2010)

MrEBear said:


> Really the question should be, will the Irish Government spend more of our hard earned money to save another dying bank? I mean they aren't exactly known for learning from their mistakes.


 
Its certainly looking as though they will, but can they? I mean it's not as though we have the money..


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## MrEBear (5 Aug 2010)

We may not have the money but I'm sure Brian will come up with another "brilliant" idea to worm it out of our pokets.


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## senni (6 Aug 2010)

AIB is a better bank that may require saving than Anglo that has been saved !!! Which one is of systemic importance !!!

Maybe if we hadnt saved Anglo we would be in a better position to come in now and take a share in AIB


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## Duke of Marmalade (6 Aug 2010)

More bears in these parts than in Yellowstone Park 

Got to be careful not to discuss individual shares, but taking a chance anyway. Very roughly it looks like when all the toxics have been transferred to NAMA and when the family jewels have been sold off, AIB will have core equity of about 1-2 bn. First thing to note is that this means it is solvent so taxpayers have not been burnt (in contrast to their roasting at the other AIB). 

The Regulator is looking for 7.4bn core equity.  The current market cap of AIB is about 1bn so it is a big ask to look for say 6bn equity raising. It really does seem to be a matter of how big a majority shareholder the State is going to be.


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## Towger (6 Aug 2010)

Does that translate as:
When everything has settled back down, AIB will be a left as small bank waiting to be easily gobbled up by a big international bank. Leaving us in the situation the government did not want to find us (the country) in pre recession, ie with little or no Irish Banks with an 'Irish Interest at Hart'.


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## steviel (7 Aug 2010)

I never understood that argument.  Why do we need our banks to be domestically owned?  We should be using our money on better things like hospitals and eduction.  Let a foreign firm buy the banks.  New Zealand has no major doemstically owned private banks and they seem to be doing OK.  And international banks get cheaper funding than ours.  Surely we just need one state owned institution to carry out policy.


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## shnaek (10 Aug 2010)

Towger said:


> ie with little or no Irish Banks with an 'Irish Interest at Hart'.[/FONT][/COLOR]



Because that's what the Irish banks always did - look after the Irish people.


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