# Adults who should know better socializing in parks



## michaelg (25 Oct 2020)

Lots of socializing going on between middle age people and families today in the park with not much indication of distancing etc.

Easy to give out about teenagers but their parents are every bit as bad outdoors.

Spotted one group of seven middle age women bunched tightly together walking and nattering like kids.

Am I allowed to bring a megaphone and shout "SUPERSPREADERS" at them tomorrow ?


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## Leper (25 Oct 2020)

Don't waste your time Michaelg. Just keep wearing your mask and keep washing your hands and look after yourself first and the "superspreaders" later.


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## michaelg (26 Oct 2020)

The point of my original post was to highlight that's its not just young people who are spreaders and that many adults are guilty of breaching the guidelines.


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## michaelg (26 Oct 2020)

It is proving to be a super deadly virus in some countries and certainly has the potential to become one in this country if it were let run riot.


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## Thirsty (26 Oct 2020)

> the overall death count is still under 2000 in this country


Which is due to the extraordinary steps that have been taken to date in the name of public health.  I could ask that more be done, but that's for another thread.

The truth is, the virus has such a wide range of human responses that it's very hard to know how you might be affected.  I've had friends die from this; I've seen others recover with little impact.

Consider that, unlike 100 years ago, we have an expectation that our healthcare systems will provide treatment when we need them; that all available measures can be taken to assist us if we fall seriously ill from COVID-19.

Now assume that is not the case; assume that hospitals will not admit anyone with COVID-19.  You stay at home; you might get better, you might die, but you will do it without any medical intervention. Death by slow suffocation is a painful way to die.

Sounds unlikely?  In Italy, back in April/ May hospitals had to introduce a protocol not to intubate anyone over the age of 70.  Had the situation worsened, or failed to be brought under control, they would have had to bring other measures into play.  Don't imagine that couldn't happen here.


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## bradyassoc (27 Oct 2020)

michaelg said:


> It is proving to be a super deadly virus in some countries and certainly has the potential to become one in this country if it were let run riot.



I’m sorry but that’s just not the case. Bear in mind that during the summer the entire country was packed all summer with people circulation around the country on staycation. Pubs, restaurants, B&B, were fully bookes, beaches were packed. Schools were closed for six months with kids having unfettered access to streets, parks, fields in packs - wrestling, rolling, fighting, playing etc.

The elephant in the room is - where is the effect of all that transmission? If this virus is so transmisible and we know that the virus hasn’t gone away surely we would have seen the impact of that transmission with a large portion of the population being exposed.

What we are seeing now is  see a rise in cases when we hit September, that's the nature of seasonal illnesses. We have the 15 year Glasgow study that shows us without exception that when we come into Autumn/Winter you will see a rise in corona viruses.


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## michaelg (27 Oct 2020)

Bradyassoc, what's your thoughts on the currently over 230,000 covid deaths in the US ?


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## almostthere (27 Oct 2020)

michaelg said:


> Lots of socializing going on between middle age people and families today in the park with not much indication of distancing etc.


The same people are still walking along the middle of the footpath while others politely step to one side to make space, oblivious.
The same people are still walking past the hand sanitiser being provided by the supermarkets for their customers, oblivious.
The same people are still mauling and squeezing, fruits, vegetables, breads etc, in supermarkets, oblivious.

I still see people waiting to put on their Facemask just as they enter one of my local supermarkets despite the fact that it is located in the middle of an enclosed shopping centre.

These people are never going to change. As Leper says above, just look after yourself, despite the urge of wanting to kick these people in the ****.


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## Sophrosyne (27 Oct 2020)

bradyassoc said:


> The infection fatality rate of this virus is similar to season flu. I know that bothers a lot of people but again, that’s just a fact.



There you go again with the misinformation, which appears to be the sole purpose of your posts on multiple threads.


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## bradyassoc (27 Oct 2020)

michaelg said:


> Bradyassoc, what's your thoughts on the currently over 230,000 covid deaths in the US ?


I think that with any number you need to understand what that number means irrespective of people’s feelings for Donald Trump which appears to be part of the issue in Ireland in that they people associate their advocacy for lockdown and restrictions as signalling their disapproval for Trump.

I could also ask what do you think of Sweden that had a very soft lockdown but their death rate is only slightly higher than Ireland. Before people jump in and compare Sweden with their neighbours, there are numerous reasons and answers for that also.


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## EmmDee (27 Oct 2020)

bradyassoc said:


> I think that with any number you need to understand what that number means irrespective of people’s feelings for Donald Trump which appears to be part of the issue in Ireland in that they people associate their advocacy for lockdown and restrictions as signalling their disapproval for Trump.
> 
> I could also ask what do you think of Sweden that had a very soft lockdown but their death rate is only slightly higher than Ireland. Before people jump in and compare Sweden with their neighbours, there are numerous reasons and answers for that also.



Great answer


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## bradyassoc (27 Oct 2020)

I’m sorry but the data is in.



			https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1320051055904907266?s=20


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## Leper (27 Oct 2020)

I want to re-iterate:- Look after yourselves first. Continue to observe the restrictions. Your household is important so start at home. Lead by example.

If others refuse to observe the restrictions let it be on their head. If you can't wash your hands or keep social distancing, refuse to wear a face mask in shops etc, if you travel abroad, refuse to use hand sanitisers etc and you become infected by Covid, read my lips:- Don't come crying to my door. It's you who are treating our hospital staff and the general public with contempt and could be eventually leading to the breakdown of our hospital services.


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## Purple (27 Oct 2020)

bradyassoc,  can you quote something other than Twitter as a source please?


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## Purple (27 Oct 2020)

I'm not a fan of the lockdown as I thing businesses and jobs are being sacrificed because people aren't sticking to the rules on social contacts, lockdowns don't really work and our lockdowns in the rich world massive impact on the poorest people in the world.  That said this virus is worse than the seasonal flu. It is far more infectious and quite a bit more deadly. It is far less deadly than was first thought but it's still worse than the seasonal flu.

The 2017-2018 flu was bad in the USA, with 45 million cases, 21 million doctors visits, 810,000 hospitalisations and 61,000 deaths. That's a bad seasonal flu season and Covid19 is about 4 times worse. 

Is is fair to say that it's like a very bad flu? Probably.


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## Thirsty (27 Oct 2020)

source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Sweden - per capita death rate - 586
Ireland - per capita death rate - 380
UK- 662

If the Swedish per capita rate was reached in Ireland, as of today (population 4.9m) we would have 2,871 deaths; if you apply the Uk death rate it would be 3,243 deaths.

We won't know the true rate of death from COVID for another year when the global excess deaths figures are calculated.

I regret to see misinformation on this topic.  I gather the moderators don't want it to be reported.


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## bradyassoc (27 Oct 2020)

Purple said:


> bradyassoc,  can you quote something other than Twitter as a source please?



here is the original source https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html


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## bradyassoc (27 Oct 2020)

Thirsty said:


> source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
> 
> Sweden - per capita death rate - 586
> Ireland - per capita death rate - 380
> ...



That’s still very low in the context of a global pandemic and bearing in mind that a large portion of their deaths in Sweden occurred in care homes (similar to Ireland).


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## Thirsty (27 Oct 2020)

Clearly none of them are your friends or family.


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## Purple (27 Oct 2020)

bradyassoc said:


> here is the original sourcehttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html


Very interesting.
Scenario 5, the one based on current information, shows a case fatality rate  of 30 per 100,000 infections for those under 19, 200 per 100,000 for 20-49 year olds and 500 per 100,000 for 50-69 year olds. It is reasonable to assume that those figures are far lower for those without underlying conditions. 
The case fatality rate for those over 70 is 5,400 per 100,000. The same caveat applied there. 

It's still a much higher case fatality and infection rate than flu but it's not the Black Death.


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## Sophrosyne (27 Oct 2020)

But comparisons are being made with Covid-19 figures where restrictions and lockdowns have been in place.

How would they compare were there no restrictions?


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## Purple (27 Oct 2020)

Thirsty said:


> Clearly none of them are your friends or family.


Most of the deaths in care homes were due to inappropriate treatments which increased the spread of the virus. That had been rectified now. In April those over 70 made up 20% of infections. That figure is now under 2%. We must base our actions on facts and hard data.


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## michaelg (27 Oct 2020)

bradyassoc said:


> I think that with any number you need to understand what that number means irrespective of people’s feelings for Donald Trump which appears to be part of the issue in Ireland in that they people associate their advocacy for lockdown and restrictions as signalling their disapproval for Trump.
> 
> I could also ask what do you think of Sweden that had a very soft lockdown but their death rate is only slightly higher than Ireland. Before people jump in and compare Sweden with their neighbours, there are numerous reasons and answers for that also.



Sweden had a very high compliance with social distancing etc. Different culture. 

With the greatest respect I think your crazy.


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## Sophrosyne (27 Oct 2020)

Below are the figures for seasonal influenza for the past 5 years and for the 2019/2020 season to date.

All figures are taken from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre.

*Note:* the Covid figures are from the date of the first confirmed case in Ireland in Feb 2020. The flu statistics span two years, e.g., the 2019/2020 flu statistics are from 30 Sep 2019.


*Flu**Covid**Flu**Covid**Flu**Covid*HospitalHospitalICUICUDeathsDeaths2014/20151009​69​66​2015/20161856​161​85​2016/20171425​51​95​2017/20184713​191​255​2018/20193244​159​97​2019/20204332​4210​154​529​110​1885​


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## Leo (27 Oct 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> Below are the figures for seasonal influenza for the past 5 years and for the 2019/2020 season to date.



Great post, imagine what the COVID figures might have been if we had treated it like your average flu and not imposed so many restrictions. Many seeking to compare it to a typical flu seem to overlook that completely.


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## EmmDee (27 Oct 2020)

Leo said:


> Many seeking to compare it to a typical flu seem to overlook that completely.



Some of those comparing Covid to flu started off arguing that masks were not useful and then moved on to the "Barrington proposal" of herd immunity - based on questionable sources


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## Thirsty (27 Oct 2020)

Purple said:


> Most of the deaths in care homes were due to inappropriate treatments which increased  spread of the virus. That had been rectified now. In April those over 70 made up 20% of infections. That figure is now under 2%. We must base our actions on facts and hard data.


My comment was a response to the apparent callous disregard for the deaths of c.1,800 people.  I think we should base our response on protecting lives, but clearly we differ.


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## Purple (27 Oct 2020)

Thirsty said:


> My comment was a response to the apparent callous disregard for the deaths of c.1,800 people.  I think we should base our response on protecting lives, but clearly we differ.


I also think our response should be based on protecting lives. In that we are as one. I consider  all lives to be of equal value so my concern extends beyond the lives of my family and those in this country. In that we seem to differ. My views on lockdowns are in line with those of the World Health Organisation.


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## Leo (27 Oct 2020)

EmmDee said:


> Some of those comparing Covid to flu started off arguing that masks were not useful and then moved on to the "Barrington proposal" of herd immunity - based on questionable sources



Hey, they sold a good message and sounded kind of sciency without getting bogged down in detail, what's not to love


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