# Why schools probably aren’t COVID hotspots



## Purple (30 Oct 2020)

Nature Magazine has published data on community infection within schools.
The news is good;
_Data gathered worldwide are increasingly suggesting that schools are not hot spots for coronavirus infections. Despite fears, COVID-19 infections did not surge when schools and day-care centres reopened after pandemic lockdowns eased. And when outbreaks do occur, they mostly result in only a small number of people becoming ill.

However, research also shows that children can catch the virus and shed viral particles, and older children are more likely than very young kids to pass it on to others. Scientists say that the reasons for these trends are unclear, but they have policy implications for older children and teachers._

Someone can tell the ASTI that they don't need to go on strike after all... what a relief... unless of course it was really about more money this time (like it is every other time). My sister is a teacher. She's appalled at the prospect of going on strike as are all the people she works with.

_edit: I said INTO but it is ASTI who are talking about striking (thanks Cormac)_


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## Prosper (30 Oct 2020)

In the attached link if you scroll down towards the bottom you'll see how the virus spreads in a classroom.








						A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air
					

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure




					english.elpais.com


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## Purple (30 Oct 2020)

Prosper said:


> In the attached link if you scroll down towards the bottom you'll see how the virus spreads in a classroom.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's an excellent link Prosper.


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## Sophrosyne (30 Oct 2020)

Is there an issue with who is considered a close contact in Irish schools?


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## odyssey06 (30 Oct 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> Is there an issue with who is considered a close contact in Irish schools?



Yes it seems the definition of close contact in schools is much stricer than other circumstances... and masks appear to be magically stronger at protection in school settings of sustained contact than they would be considered anywhere else! And I'm pro-mask but if you are in same room as an infected person for hours then your standard mask isn't going to protect against that.


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## odyssey06 (30 Oct 2020)

ps I don't think we should close schools but I think we have to realise if they are open we will have more cases and higher R number. 
Not that they are a 'hotspot' necessarily but they are definitely a current through which it flows.


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## Sophrosyne (30 Oct 2020)

Thanks for that @odyssey06.

I caught the tail end of an RTÉ interview with a HSE representative who, when asked, had no information regarding the number of cases associated with recent school clusters.

There was also a mention of a different definition of "close contact" being applied in schools, as opposed to other settings, though I didn't hear that discussion.


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## odyssey06 (30 Oct 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> I caught the tail end of an RTÉ interview with a HSE representative who, when asked, had no information regarding the number of cases associated with recent school clusters.



Yes. I've started to notice when HSE \ NPHET respond to a question in the 'passive' voice e.g. "We have no evidence that..."
That immediately makes me suspicious.
If someone uses the active voice... i.e. We conducted the following analysis and X... then I believe them.

I remember when "there was no evidence" of human to human transmission... "no evidence" of presymptomatic spread... etc


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## Purple (30 Oct 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> Yes. I've started to notice when HSE \ NPHET respond to a question in the 'passive' voice e.g. "We have no evidence that..."
> That immediately makes me suspicious.
> If someone uses the active voice... i.e. We conducted the following analysis and X... then I believe them.
> 
> I remember when "there was no evidence" of human to human transmission... "no evidence" of presymptomatic spread... etc


When were people saying that there was no evidence of human to human transmission?
I remember people saying that there was very low levels of asymptomatic transmission. I think it is still the case that rates of asymptomatic transmission are low. Have a look at Prosper’s link above.


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## odyssey06 (30 Oct 2020)

Purple said:


> When were people saying that there was no evidence of human to human transmission?
> I remember people saying that there was very low levels of asymptomatic transmission. I think it is still the case that rates of asymptomatic transmission are low. Have a look at Prosper’s link above.



This is going back to late January for human to human transmission and March for presymptomatic \ asymptomatic transmission.
Wasn't there a doctor who was cleared to work in nursing home or hospital ward after returning from Italian ski resort in March because he had no symptoms... who then triggered a cluster of infections?








						Covid-19: Health authorities 'working rapidly' to identify contacts of doctor and his family in Limerick
					

Patients who may have come into contact with one of the confirmed cases of Covid-19 are being contacted directly.




					www.thejournal.ie
				




So when I hear someone say passively "There is no evidence of X".... that has very weak standing for me.


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## Sophrosyne (30 Oct 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> This is going back to late January for human to human transmission



Yes. There was a now infamous tweet posted on 14 January 2020 on the WHO website, which stated that preliminary investigations by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus identified in Wuhan, China. On the same date a different WHO expert warned of mass human transmission.

There is not enough big data regarding asymptomatic transmission to call it either way. 

I don't know if it is still the case here in Ireland, but tracing that only goes back 48 hours is very unsatisfactory and could attribute the source of contagion incorrectly.


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## odyssey06 (31 Oct 2020)

RTE article on how school close contacts are being defined deliberately to other settings...








						Schools seen as 'safe' places in more ways than one
					

At Thursday's HSE briefing, a public health consultant acknowledged something that some school staff and parents have suspected of late: that when it comes to testing in schools, and who is or isn't regarded as a close contact, different rules apply.




					www.rte.ie


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## Sophrosyne (31 Oct 2020)

Looks like the horns of a dilemma with two equally difficult alternatives – keep schools open; contain viral spread.


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## Purple (2 Nov 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> Yes. There was a now infamous tweet posted on 14 January 2020 on the WHO website, which stated that preliminary investigations by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus identified in Wuhan, China. On the same date a different WHO expert warned of mass human transmission.
> 
> There is not enough big data regarding asymptomatic transmission to call it either way.
> 
> I don't know if it is still the case here in Ireland, but tracing that only goes back 48 hours is very unsatisfactory and could attribute the source of contagion incorrectly.


I think it's fair to say that we have considerably more data now. In late January there was no data outside China and very little from China. Therefore trends and statistics derived from much larger sample sizes over a much larger geographical area and a much longer time period are much more meaningful.

I agree on contact tracing. We have closed most of the economy and subjected hundreds of thousands of people to uncertainty and unemployment, with all the mental health and domestic abuse and other general health and wellbeing issues which go with it, because of the organisational incompetence of our health service which, despite abundant funding, can't provide sufficient ICU beds or a satisfactory testing and contract tracing infrastructure. It is a shameful failure of the managers and medical "professionals" who are will paid to do a job which seems to be beyond them. 

In the normal course of events people just die on trolleys and spend years waiting for life altering treatments but we are used to that and the false narrative that somehow it's down to funding or a particular Health Minister is mindlessly regurgitated by the media. We now see the same organisational incompetence in action reacting to this disease and it's business as usual, lionising the people who are failing to do their job.


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## Sophrosyne (2 Nov 2020)

Purple said:


> I think it's fair to say that we have considerably more data now. In late January there was no data outside China and very little from China.



My reference to the January WHO tweet was in relation to @odyssey06's  post #10, which in turn was in response to one of your questions in post #9.

Research since then, while it has provided more insight, generally stops short of firm conclusions.

The contact tracing problem is not unique to Ireland.

Lack of data on the timing of exposure and the onset of symptoms relative to the testing date is, with few exceptions, a global problem.

It necessitates assumptions of the true identification of index cases, which leads to assumptions of the infection status of contacts with positive or negative results and assumptions of incubation periods.

Global research is hampered by this and so reputable experts are reticent in drawing definitive conclusions about pre-symptomatic & asymptomatic spread and also the role of children in the spread.

Understandably, there is wishful thinking regarding viral spread by children, but at present, we just don’t know.


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## Purple (2 Nov 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> My reference to the January WHO tweet was in relation to @odyssey06's  post #10, which in turn was in response to one of your questions in post #9.
> 
> Research since then, while it has provided more insight, generally stops short of firm conclusions.
> 
> ...



It will be years before the experts draw definitive and broadly agreed conclusions. All we can do at the moment is work on the information we have, free of emotion and assumptions of some darker intent from those offering it. 
What we can't do is become paralyzed into indecision based on fear and a very narrow focus on what impacts this disease is having on our society.  

I agree that the contract tracing problem is not unique to Ireland but we are an island with a young population and one of the most highly funded healthcare systems in the world, adjusted for that demographic we are strong contenders to be well within the top 10. In that context I think we should expect better from those who provide that service. 

I am always wary of people who are prone to selfagradisment. The same applied to organisations or representative bodies which do the same thing. I like evidence and facts and I like people and organisations which concentrate on what they are bad at and acknowledge that we are all subject to the same human frailties as that's how we get better. 
When I'm told that a Bank or aa business or a health service or an education system, or the people who work within them, is/are "World Class" my first reaction is "How do you know? What are you measuring yourself against? Where's the value for money audit?". It's really important not to believe your own propaganda.


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## Sophrosyne (2 Nov 2020)

Purple said:


> What we can't do is become paralyzed into indecision based on fear and a very narrow focus on what impacts this disease is having on our society.



Who is doing that?


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## Purple (2 Nov 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> Who is doing that?


I'm seeing in some of the more opinion based media reporting. The hard cases where someone young is badly affected being reported as if it is something other than a statistically irrelevant outlier, the talk of long Covid as if there is a tsunami of further illness about to overwhelm us. The calls for further lockdowns despite the guidance from the WHO stating that they should be a short term measure to allow health services the space to get their house in order. That sort of thing.


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## Sophrosyne (2 Nov 2020)

That is just some media reports.

That doesn't equate to:



Purple said:


> become paralyzed into indecision based on fear and a very narrow focus on what impacts this disease is having on our society.


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## Purple (2 Nov 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> That is just some media reports.
> 
> That doesn't equate to:


In your opinion.


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## Sophrosyne (2 Nov 2020)

Where is your evidence of paralyses and by whom and on what scale?


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## Sophrosyne (2 Nov 2020)

Where is your evidence of paralyses and indecision based on fear and narrow focus.

Who are you talking about?


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## Purple (2 Nov 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> Where is your evidence of paralyses and indecision based on fear and narrow focus.
> 
> Who are you talking about?


Oh sweet jasus, okay; I'm not going back through the dozens of posts I've made in this section over the last few weeks so your right, I'm wrong. I'm not getting into another discussion where people throw links around to support what are opinions.


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## Sophrosyne (2 Nov 2020)

Purple said:


> I'm not getting into another discussion where people throw links around to support what are opinions.



I haven't posted any links in this thread, though some have.


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## Purple (2 Nov 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> I haven't posted any links in this thread, though some have.


I didn't say you had. I've been down the rabbit hole a few times where links to opinions were posted to support opinions etc. It's a hiding to nowhere. 
My contention is that lockdowns and a narrow focus on the direct health impacts of the virus can cause other, potentially larger, problems elsewhere. 
I find the focus on what are a small minority of hard cases bordering on the hysterical. 
I find the dismissal by some of the impact or our actions on the poorest people in the world staggeringly myopic. 
I find the lack of any serious discussion, beyond political point scoring, on why our health service is unable to react to this in an appropriate manner baffling.  
That is the narrow focus I am talking about; we have never faced a pandemic like this but we haven't even talked about a structural change in order to react to it. Instead there is an endless stream of human interest stories and hero worshiping of people just doing their job. It is utterly reductive.


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## Sophrosyne (2 Nov 2020)

I admire you idealism, but let’s get real here. This is Ireland; not the US, Russia, Germany, UK, etc. Ireland’s impact on the global economy is inconsequential.

Decisions are based on health advice and that is based on the most reliable and up-to-date knowledge possible – not media reports.

Certain aspects of the governmental response is deficient as it is in practically every country.

Your dislike of the HSE is well known but is often a distraction in discussions.


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## Purple (3 Nov 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> I admire you idealism, but let’s get real here. This is Ireland; not the US, Russia, Germany, UK, etc. Ireland’s impact on the global economy is inconsequential.


 Okay, so why bother recycling, paying your taxes, putting your litter in the bin, not drink driving etc? After all, our individual actions have no real consequences. If everyone had your attitude women wouldn't have the vote and we'd still be able to own slaves.



Sophrosyne said:


> Decisions are based on health advice and that is based on the most reliable and up-to-date knowledge possible – not media reports.


 Decisions are based on medical advice relating to the virus. There's more at play here.




Sophrosyne said:


> Certain aspects of the governmental response is deficient as it is in practically every country.
> 
> Your dislike of the HSE is well known but is often a distraction in discussions.


So let me get this straight, you think that the deficiencies of our public health service is a distraction from a discussion relating to the States response to a public health issue. Okay, got it. I think that's the nub of the problem.


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## Sophrosyne (3 Nov 2020)

Purple said:


> Okay, so why bother recycling, paying your taxes, putting your litter in the bin, not drink driving etc? After all, our individual actions have no real consequences. If everyone had your attitude women wouldn't have the vote and we'd still be able to own slaves



What an utterly baseless and speculative and duplicitous inference!


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## Purple (3 Nov 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> What an utterly baseless and speculative and duplicitous inference!


Why? The "we should do whatever suits us because we're small" argument leads to that conclusion.


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## Sophrosyne (3 Nov 2020)

My point is simply that incessant references to HSE shortcomings are a distraction from a thread’s focus.

From this you have finally concluded that this necessarily means:

"If everyone had your attitude women wouldn't have the vote and we'd still be able to own slaves.”


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## Purple (3 Nov 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> My point is simply that incessant references to HSE shortcomings are a distraction from a thread’s focus.
> 
> From this you have finally concluded that this necessarily means:
> 
> "If everyone had your attitude women wouldn't have the vote and we'd still be able to own slaves.”


I was replying to you comment;



Sophrosyne said:


> I admire you idealism, but let’s get real here. This is Ireland; not the US, Russia, Germany, UK, etc. Ireland’s impact on the global economy is inconsequential.


We cannot expect others not to be myopic and selfish if we are doing exactly that. We are part of a global community. If this pandemic doesn't show us that then nothing will. Why make decisions as consumers and as citizens on issues like climate change, conflict minerals, fast fashion etc if those individual decisions make no difference?

The HSE's shortcomings are a large part of the reason we need to have lockdowns of this type. It is, or should be, central to the whole discussion. Those shortcomings usually only hit people who can't afford private health insurance but now they are hitting everyone and yet still they are not front and centre. I find is baffling. We are the 13th highest per capita spender on healthcare in the world with a significantly younger population than anyone else in the top 20. Why can't we ask why our service is so shambolic?

We have spend more than enough for more than enough lifeboats but people are still drowning.


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