# Irish Property Prices based on Historical Inflation



## webtax (8 Nov 2008)

This table shows Irish house prices would have risen if they had kept to their historical growth rates of inflation plus .04% (per Robert J. Shiller's research on U.S. house prices going back to 1890). While it is based on the US market, it is relevant for Irish prices and gives some interesting results. Although picking a starting point is subjective, 1996 is roughly when house prices went out of synch with inflation (see graph***) so it does put into perspective house price rises here in recent years.

(Year, House Price EUR, CPI Inflation*, CPI Adjusted Price,   Additional House Price Inflation**,   Total Adjusted Price) 
1996       75,000.00  1.60%          76,200.00  0.04%    76,230.48 
 1997       76,230.48  1.50%          77,373.94  0.04%    77,404.89 
 1998       77,404.89  2.40%          79,262.60  0.04%    79,294.31  
1999       79,294.31  1.60%          80,563.02  0.04%    80,595.24 
 2000       80,595.24  5.60%          85,108.58  0.04%    85,142.62  
2001       85,142.62  4.90%          89,314.61  0.04%    89,350.33  
2002       89,350.33  4.60%          93,460.45  0.04%    93,497.83 
 2003       93,497.83  3.50%          96,770.26  0.04%    96,808.97  
2004       96,808.97  2.20%          98,938.76  0.04%    98,978.34  
2005       98,978.34  2.50%        101,452.80  0.04%  101,493.38  
2006     101,493.38  4.00%        105,553.11  0.04%  105,595.34 
 2007     105,595.34  4.90%        110,769.51  0.04%  110,813.81  
2008     110,813.81  
 
 *  [broken link removed]  **  http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_06/b4070044774504.htm  
*** house prices/general inflation graph 
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





 (copied from a posting by thomas22)

The Celtic Tiger was just starting to have an effect on incomes around 1996, so if a very generous assumption is made that house prices were 50% undervalued and additional house price inflation should be 1% in Ireland the end result is a 2008 house price of €186,000, still substantially below current prices.


----------



## ajapale (8 Nov 2008)

Hi Webtax,

Thanks but you need to fix your image links.

aj


----------



## webtax (8 Nov 2008)

I have taken the image links out, hopefully it is clearer now. This thread is not intended to kick off another debate on the housing market, I just thought some historical facts would be useful for anyone considering when house prices will have fallen enough to make property investment worthwhile again.


----------

