# Will the Dublin property market crash ??



## holly23 (1 Dec 2004)

A new poster here so apologies if this is in the wrong section.

I was interested to get your opinions on what you think will happen to the property market over the next 5 years(esp in Dublin)
Do you see prices continue to rise, a levelling off or is there any possibility of a crash ?


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## piggy (1 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

If anyone can answer you that question with any certainty they have god-like powers.


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## Jazz (1 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

Out of curiosity, does anyone know if property markets ever do "level off".  Anyone here have experience of the UK market or any other property market.

Maybe I'm wrong; I was always under the impression that property markets are always moving - either up or down...


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## ajapale (1 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

I lived in Dublin in the late 1980's and early 1990s and my impression was that it was fairly flat at that time. I figure you would have to factor in inflation when you are looking at the figures.
ajapale


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## WizardDr (3 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

There are a number of major issues:

1. If interest rates turn upwards ..they are like the 46A bus ..they come in groups. When interest rates turn, that on its own will put the brakes on the show;
2. Ireland has according to the EU Housing statistics an incredible 337 dwellings per 1000 of population and is the lowest by a wide margin. (This keeps prices up ..as there is simply not enough ..and has not been enough ..and wont be enough..) and buyers will exceed sellers as they have done every year since 1991 ..and will continue to do so until 2008.

The first issue is negative;
the second issue explains why Tom & Mick Bailey made €50m in the 'riskiest' business on the planet.. building houses in Ireland. 

When house prices turn - and if the price stays flat ,,inflation means a real price drop - some asset bubble types are convinced that the turn would be for a considerable period. 

As an  investor, i would take the advice of a millionaire who told me that he always sold at the wrong time! Booking profits on investment properties is what I would do, and invest in other jurisdictions where the return is normal and price inflation is also normal.


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## Dublin Taxpayer (6 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

I lived in Dublin the 1980s, one of my colleagues made a 'loss' on her house in Meath as the builders were still building  the same ones further along in the estate.  With stamp duty & first time buyers grant she couldn't give her place away!!  That was 1985 or 86.  I moved to London..... bought a place there in 1989 and in 1996 tried desperately to sell it.  Couldnt' have given it away.  We had massive (it seemed to us) negative equity.  ANyway we held on and sold at a decent profit earlier this year, I bumped into her last week.  She had had to hold on to her place and rent in Dublin for a few years.  Needless to day she made a decent profit in the long run.  We both had anxious and lean month where we had no tenants.  Not sure I'd be happy to invest in an appartment in Dublin these days as they seem very expensive.


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## joe sod (7 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

It is very hard to tell when a market will crash but I think it will crash but then Ive thought that since 2002. The market is clearly becoming unstable simply because they are moving out of most peoples reach. The average house price in Dublin is around 330000 euros whereas the average industrial wage is around 29000 euros per year which means that the average house price is over 10 times the average industrial wage. In a way Ireland isn't in control of house prices anymore it is the euro that is dictating house prices. The fate of what happens house prices is tied to the fate of the euro. When the euro was initially falling in value it added fuel to the celtic tiger making our exports more competitive resulting in more jobs and demand for houses. Now that the euro is rising in value it means that interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future sustaining the housing boom. So in a way the housing boom is like a sail boat without a rudder being blown by a powerful wind which it has no control over and no way of steering its own course. Where the boat ends up is dictated by the wind and not by the sailor.It is interesting to note that Bank of England is steering its housing boom to calmer waters because it still has control of the rudder.


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## JohnnieKipper (7 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

I don't think there will be a crash. There may be a slowdown in the rate of price rise. The current property boom is an effect of the celtic tiger. We all seem to have loads of money these days. There are a lot of new properties being built this year but a lot of these are being bought as second homes/holiday homes. As long as the celtic tiger continues the house market will stay healthy. Yes, the celtic tiger had a little snooze for the last few years but didn't go away.

So I think investing in property is the way to go.

Just my 2 cents.


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## daltonr (9 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

The market will crash, one week after I sign the dotted line.
I'll give you all plenty of notice of when that's happening, so you can all get on with life between now and then.

-Rd


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## Marie (10 Dec 2004)

*Will the market crash ??*

There is a noticeable slowdown of sales of houses here in the UK in the past year (and it isn't just local......I live 70 miles north-east, in Essex).  Neighbours who have sold after 6 - 8 months tell me they had to reduce by 10%.

One thing that seems to me to be different between the UK and the Irish situation is that every other person you speak with in Dublin had a second property which they were renting out.  This amateur landlord/lady sector is not a feature of the UK situation and might mean a difference in how the property market in the republic pans out.

The other difference is - of course - the very low interest rates in the eurozone which should mean (shouldn't it?) that if/when prices drop by about 10% in the republic over the next year prospective purchasers won't have too much difficulty getting into the market.

Another thought I entertain about the so-called "property boom" in the Western world is how illusory the gains from property ownership *actually are!*.  If I factor-in the interest on my mortgage, the investment in refurbishing and replacing crappy lean-to bathroom etc., the profit is nothing like it looks in the newspaper columns or t.v. makeover programmes.  "Paid £200,000, did it up, sold for £300,000" doesn't factor-in research, planning or labour time.


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## sherman (10 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

Rates won't go up significantly until Germany, France and Italy wake up to the reality of their dreadfully overcosseted workforces and pension/social welfare systems. Which won't happen anytime soon!!

In the meantime dynamic growth economies like Ireland get a 'free ride' in terms of interest rates, which of course manifests itself in asset-price bubbles, particularly for assets for which it is easy to borrow money, esp. housing and commercial property.


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## Marie (11 Dec 2004)

*Will the market crash ??*

Well Sherman -  "Cossetted" isn't the term that comes to my mind in connection with stability of work, reasonable safety-nets for the adversities of life such as illness or redundancy, and a pension of a level to enable reasonable comfort.  This quality of life is (surely?) what folks are aspiring to when they invest energy, time in their education, then their training, then their working lives, no?  It's all intended to achieve "quality of life" of which the size and location of the box one lives in is but a small part.  I don't know anything about economics and I'm sure you're informed and correct.  However that means that shortly Ireland will be full of well-educated, highly-motivated people with years of skills tranings and work experience who live in big houses and all have cars but who can't afford to live or buy petrol as the economy is based on (a) property (b) transient multinationals.  Not a "crash" but quiet destitution?


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## Lemurz (19 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

There were some interesting articles in Business Plus recently, comparing investemtns in housing to the stock market.  The bottom line was that the stock market was far better value for money based on fundamentals.


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## daltonr (20 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

With Seamus Brennan mentioning in the Dail that the State takes up 40% of the space in private rented accomodation, is it any wonder housing prices continue to rise.

The demands on the government to provide accomodation are not going to suddenly dry up.   If anything we're in a vicious circle, of the state renting a huge amount of the accomodation available, and it would seem, not driving a particularly hard bargain given their buying power

This pushes up the stability and returns of renting, which in turns makes rents higher, which in turn pushes up the number of people needing help from the state.

40%.   I can't believe that figure.   We don't have a property rental industry in this country,  we have state sponsored property bonds.

-Rd


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## onekeano (20 Dec 2004)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

40%.... hmmmmm doubt that too. That means that the state are adding 32,000 people to the private rented sector this year (80*.4) - same last year and the year before and going forward - doubt that.


Roy


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## Protocol (20 Dec 2004)

*State pays your rent*

I think what that means is that the State, via the Health Boards, are paying for a lot of people's rent.

i.e. the Rent Allowance scheme, which costs 200-300 million per year


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## daltonr (21 Dec 2004)

*Re: State pays your rent*

Yes.   They're not adding 40% to the rental market.
They take up 40% of the available rental accomodatation.

It's shocking if true.  But it explains a lot.

-Rd


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## Marie (13 Jan 2005)

*State pays your rent*

It sounds as if the State - rather than the housing sector - is about to go bust?


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## Duplex (14 Jan 2005)

2005 will be an interesting year for the Irish property market.  Estate agents and lenders seem to have reached a consensus, that prices will increase by 10% this year.  This forecast is in the context of unprecedented housing output expected again this year.
By the end of the year therefore someone buying an average priced home now, can expect (according to these forecasts),  a paper profit of €25,000 by year’s end.

These projections are surprising however given the following facts;

1. House prices fell outside Dublin in the last quarter of 2004.

2. Rental values continue to fall and void periods increase in the investment market, this situation is unlikely to improve, the government has announced funding for 30,000 affordable housing units to be built over the next five years.

3. Wage growth is nowhere near the actual or projected growth in house prices.

4. Property markets in countries with similar economies to our own have seen poorly performing markets since the summer of last year.

UK
Mortgage approvals have fallen by 40% to their lowest level in a decade, house price falls which were first reported in the summer of 2004 are continuing.  The vast majority of independent commentators have stated that we are seeing the bursting of a speculative bubble in the UK market.


US
Housing markets which saw the greatest escalation in prices over the last few years in California, Nevada and the north east are showing signs of a sharp slowdown.  With falls of up to 20% recorded in San Diego and Orange County.  Mortgage lending has fallen by the highest rate since the early 90’s in December.


Australia 
Prices in the major cities have seen falls for over a year.  Brisbane for instance has seen a fall of 15% in the last quarter.  Again commentators are stating that a speculative real estate bubble has burst.


5. Levels of personal debt continue to grow at record levels.

6.  Ireland’s competitive position is being eroded with business and employers organisations repeatedly warning of the economic consequences.

7. Serious issues with the role out of vital infrastructural projects have again been identified as posing a risk to Ireland’s competitiveness.  After twenty years the M50 for instance is yet to be completed, broadband coverage is the worst in Europe save for Greece.   Time and cost overruns, nimbyism and parish pump politicking have conspired to narrow the vital arteries of development in an infrastructuraly challenged nation, which cannot afford the extravagance of long winded development lead times.


8. Average property prices relative to average incomes are now the highest in the world, compared to other markets not driven in part by non domestic demand.

9. The above may not be an issue as Irish lending institutions seem to be able to find applicants who are able to afford these high P/E ratios.    However if we consider the well documented disaster myopia which gripped banks in Japan etc before previous real estate busts and the weak hand that  passes for  Irish regulation of lending, this extraordinary munificence by our banks is understandable.

10. Yesterday the ECB issued a warning on house price bubbles in Ireland and Spain.


The global economy is entering a time of uncertainty.  The debt driven consumer has forestalled, (to date) the economic day of reckoning which should have followed the dotcom bust, the last speculative mania.   Emergency base rates in Europe and the US and hyper low cost production costs in China have staved off a recession or worse. 
However there is a finite amount of debt that can be carried by society.  Early signs of retrenchment by consumers are now evident in the UK and US and Ireland is almost uniquely exposed to the vagaries of any change in the fickle economic wind. 


You will of course not read anything as bearish as the above in any Irish newspaper, I fully understand that whoever pays the piper names the tune.   The censorship mentality that blighted Ireland for much of the last centaury is alive and well if you dare to blaspheme the new religion.   

10%?, whoever said “don’t believe everything you read in the papers” was right.


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## Marie (15 Jan 2005)

Beautifully expressed!


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## Gabriel (17 Jan 2005)

Just on some of Duplex's points:

2) There is a huge difference between the rental market and the homeowners market. 

3) Wage growth has been nowhere near house price growth in Ireland for a long time now. It hasn't stopped the prices from rising though. 

4) Other countries are other countries. Not Ireland. Apples and bananas.

If house prices do increase by 10% this year will you post here next year and admit you might have been wrong? Or just issue the same warning year after year until some day you're right?


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## Jose (18 Jan 2005)

Gabriel, beautifully expressed!


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## Duplex (18 Jan 2005)

Gabriel

1. There is a difference between ownership and renting.  The cost of renting in Ireland is falling while the cost of ownership is rising.  This fact casts some light on the relative financial value/worth of shelter in Ireland and reflects the physic value of ownership at present.


2. The gap between wage growth and house price growth has existed for some time, again a fact.  Momentum investing and asset bubbles tend to display this type of divergence from fundamentals.


3. You suggest that the UK, US and Australian markets are apples, while our markets is bananas, I would tend to agree with this statement.


Will I agree to come back to this board in a years time if house prices do rise by 10% and state that I was wrong?, yes, but only if the banks, auctioneers and editors of all the property supplements agree to post on here if they are proved wrong.

Btw thank you Marie


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## Gabriel (21 Jan 2005)

Duplex, you pre-suppose that bankers, auctioneers and editors of all the property supplements actually read AAM!

I'll look forward to your post on the 1st of Jan 2006


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## Devilsadvocate (22 Jan 2005)

I have little doubt, sadly, that there will be a property crash in Ireland. While trying to 'predict the market' is indeed generally a mugs game I'm prepared to put a time-frame of 18-24 months on it.

Theres a large variety of reason for this but amongst them are:

I've seen the figure of Ireland having one of the lowest 'dwellings per 1000' in Europe of 337 being bandied about. Being a cynical one I checked on the website of the UN Economic Commission for Europe and the last year they had figures for was 2002 at 384 per 1000. Add on 03/04 and 05s predicted 80000 new houses and you're suddenly at 440 odd, a massive increase in a few years.

ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet has stated that although they have held the ecb rate at 2% again recently they would prefer to move it slowly over the next two years to a more 'normal' rate for Europe of 3-4%. A 250k mortgage today at 3.3% is roughly costing you 1094 a month, at 5.3% that will go up to 1388 a month almost 300 euro a month extra, this is by no means an unreasonable expectation.

'Affordability' is again often throw about as being much the same as it was 20 years ago while interest rates were at an all time high. What you don't read is that 'affordability' is often based on some very unstable factors. I find it astonishing how easy it is to get mortgages for higher and higher amounts these days. Don't make enough? No prob can Daddy go guarantor? Hey don't forget the 'magic' extra 7k a year you earn from rent-a-room tax free, a little poke here a little pull there and all is well. No deposit? Not a prob either the wonderfull Credit Union is there to help. It goes on and on, I know of no-one in recent years that has managed to buy without some questionable 'help' in some way or other (and I include in that gifts from parents etc.)

As stated before the average wage to house price ratio in Ireland is at ridiculous levels and is imho unsustainable in the long run. Are we condeming these youngsters to NEEDING two full time incomes to raise a family and afford the mortgage repayments? Have any of these more recent buyers stopped to consider the sheer expense of having a family in the future.

Of course not since never in the history of the State has credit been easier to come buy. Unfortunately most of the young people buying their own homes have never known the 'bad times' and assume it can never happen, try paying that 'affordable' mortgage on 1 income instead of 2.

It's been predicted to happen many times in the past but the vested interest circle of builders,banks,estate agents and newspapers have ensured that no-one is really prepared to cry wolf until it is too late.

Forget the figures though, most recent home buyers I know don't ask questions like; location, proximity to services or schools, living space, gardens, lifestyle etc.. etc.. the only question is 'Can i afford it?' if not then keep going further out until you can, after all you better do it now while you still can afford it and sure you'll have made 25k on it by next year.

The day ftbs started to confuse the word 'home' with the word 'investment' was a bad day for Ireland. And thats before I even get started on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th house buyers instead of pensions!


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## michaelm (26 Jan 2005)

What Devilsadvocate says sounds like sense to me.  A house near me was recently sale agreed(stolen) for 4% less than similar houses were sold a year ago despite this house being in a better location in the estate, having a bigger garden, being detached and the buyer was a FTB looking at 0% stamp duty as it was post budget.


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## Devilsadvocate (27 Jan 2005)

I'm seeing evidence of 'jitters' already. A friend has had his Donabate property on the market at 285k for the last 9 months while 3 other houses on his street (almost identical bar some minor details) sold for 275, 270 and 266 respectively.

He is unfortunately in the position of having put a deposit on a new-build that will be ready shortly and is having major difficulty funding the shortfall if he doesn't get the full 285k. He nearly jumped for joy at the new stamp-duty for ftbs of second hand houses as it may bail him out just in time.


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## Duplex (4 Feb 2005)

I'm also seeing dropping asking prices in Meath, I would guess about 5% of peak prices in the summer of last year.  The ECB has issued another warning, today regarding unsustainable property bubbles in Ireland and Spain. Second warning in the last week.


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## johnfitz (1 Mar 2005)

I know this point is made over and over again but I still think that a good property in a central location will do well in the medium to long term, if not in the short term.  I've also noticed some falls in prices but have seen extremely high increases recently in some predominately FTB central areas around me such as parts of Whitehall, Cabra and Stoneybatter.  Meanwhile, I've noticed stagnation where my parents live in Blanchardstown.


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## ClubMan (1 Mar 2005)

*I still think that a good property in a central location will do well in the medium to long term, if not in the short term.*

I'm curious to know what objective data do you base this opinion on?


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## owenmorie (2 Mar 2005)

Go to the department of the Environments web site, it's linked off of the www.irlgov.ie. Under housing stastics their is a downloadable spreadsheet that details house price movements based on loan approvals. The third quarter of last year makes _interesting_ reading. The full years figures should be out in a couple of weeks.


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## johnfitz (2 Mar 2005)

what a terrible website! finally found this. it seems to say that prices in dublin have fallen in a general sense for the third quarter of 2004 but such general statistics often conceal the reality that prices have most definitely risen for the vast majority of areas in Dublin for this period. I don't know anyone who would disagree that prices have not risen in Dublin 3,7 or 9 for the large part over this time.  I mention these areas because they are the ones that I've been watching specifically.

In relation to Clubman's point, it's merely an opinion and not based on any objective data. However, anyone I know who has bought a FTB property recently doesn't really have a huge problem paying their mortgage.  Raising the deposit was the big obstacle to overcome.  I can't see this changing unless the ECB rises by over 2% which I believe is unlikely.  Unemployment continues to be low and prospects for the city are still extremely good.


DEH&LG Housing Statistics Website Link inserted by ajapale


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## onekeano (7 Mar 2005)

"I don't know anyone who would disagree that prices have not risen in Dublin 3,7 or 9 for the large part over this time."

Here's one that would disagree and I know of lots of other people living in the general area.

Roy


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## johnfitz (8 Mar 2005)

Would you say that this is true across the board or just for houses, which are not usually bought by FTBs.  Anything currently for sale around 300,000 in these areas seems to have had very strong capital appreciation over the last few years and appears to continue to do so.

John


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## Gabriel (8 Mar 2005)

*> Would you say that this is true across the board or just for houses, which are not usually bought by FTBs*

That's a rather strange assertion. Any evidence to back this up?


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## johnfitz (8 Mar 2005)

Hi Gabriel,

Just from personal experience of being a FTB and buying my own place in Dublin 7, and from friends of mine (also FTBs) who have bought in East Wall and in Whitehall, I've noticed over the past two years how prices at the lower end of the market have risen substantially in these areas.  For example in East Cabra, a two bedroom ex corporation house in good condition will now sell for around 330,000.  (One recently sale agreed on Annaly Drive for around this)  When I was looking just over two years ago, it would have cost around 230,000.  Similarly, an ex corp house in e.g. the Larkhill area of Whitehall in poor condition cost around 210,000 about two years ago and is now selling for around 290,000 and currently, there is one in good condition for sale on Larkhill road for 350,000.  These increases have been continuous as I have been keeping an eye on both areas over the past while.  

John


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## rose (8 Mar 2005)

*Crash*

www.tcd.ie/Economics/staf...4_B&F_.pdf


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## onekeano (9 Mar 2005)

*Re: Crash*

Hi Rose, the URL doesn't work - could you post a link please?

Thanks
Roy


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## Gabriel (9 Mar 2005)

Hi JohnFitz,

I wasn't questioning your assertion that prices have risen steadily in certain areas. I was wondering how you came to the conclusion that first time buyers don't buy houses?

*"...just for houses, which are not usually bought by FTBs"*

Or have I mistaken what you were saying?


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## johnfitz (9 Mar 2005)

Hi Gabriel,

Sorry, I think you misunderstood. I was referring to the type of houses that FTBs typically don't buy; i.e those well over 300,000.

John


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## Gabriel (9 Mar 2005)

Ahh...I see. Fair enough so.

For what it's worth I was a ftb last year and my house cost €325k. I was willing to go the extra mile because I thought the property was worth it...but perhaps I'm the exception and not the rule.


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## rose (9 Mar 2005)

*Dublin Property crash*

onekeano - Roy the link is on Property Investment under the heading of The Great House Price Crash 2005? (TV Programme)


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## Tonka (18 Mar 2005)

*Yes*

Every bubble bursts , even in Dublin  !


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## redline (23 Mar 2005)

*Re: Yes*

The irish property market is most definitely in bubble territory and will burst. actually,  there is a global bubble in property prices and a sharp correction will take place in the next 1 - 3 years.
I lived thru and witnessed first hand the UK property crash. It was also a bubble and it was amazing how fast prices turned south once the bubble was burst.
Fundamentally you have the supply/demand balance being corrected over time with the massive building of houses and apartments over the last number of years. all you have to do is drive around dublin and look at the apartments being constructed. they are popping up everywhere. who is going to buy them all ?? interest rates are rising and will rise further. there are a notable increase in the for sale signs showing up all over the city. in my own estate there 6 houses have been put on the market in the last 4 weeks. rents are falling. as a multiple of average earnings houses are now at there most expensive ever in ireland and are also  the most expensive in the world using this metric. the banks, solicitors and estate agents are all biased. be a skeptic and form your own opinion. caveat emptor....


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## joe sod (23 Mar 2005)

*Re: Yes*

I heard Dan McLoughlin on the radio saying that price rises will now only be about 6% a year. When pressed about the possibility of a crash he said that house prices would only fall if unemployment were to rise significantly, in this I think he is correct. However I also think a rise in unemployment is very likely now due to rising oil prices. The more oil prices rise the more companies will be forced to cut costs in other areas. The fate of the housing market will be determined by what happens oil.


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## Gabriel (23 Mar 2005)

*re*

From reading all the bible bursting posts on AAM over time there always appears to be one particular facet that people believe will cause the bubble to burst. Oh it'll be because of this...oh it'll be oil etc...etc...

And then there's the infamous it'll happen in the next year, two years, three years predictions! It's a wonder these predictors don't look back over the last ten or so years at all the people who said exactly the same thing!!

If I'm still floating around here in ten years I wonder will there be new people saying the same thing?


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## redline (23 Mar 2005)

*dan 'rose tinted glasses/perma bull' mc laughlin*

d mc g has to be the most bank biased economist i have ever come accross. i have NEVER EVER read a negative article by him. A negative economic report comes out from another source, d mc g slates the report and takes the opposite opinion (always bullish). it is very obvious he is a bank employee/economist and I would not pay too much attention to his bull waffle. be a sceptic and form your own opinions !


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## joe sod (23 Mar 2005)

*Re: Will the market crash ??*

I don't wish to sound patronising and I feel sorry for first time buyers who only wish to buy a house to live in. The problem with the housing market for the last while is that so many people have got into it ,not for a house to live in, but as a sure fire way of making money. I think this is the first time this has happened property on this scale. Traditionally property was regarded as a slow stable investment but not one that you were going to double your investment in a couple of years. So the property market is now acting like the stock market but people are not put out because of its traditional reputation as being a slow steady investment. The real culprits in this sorry saga are the banks, in the past they would never have allowed this to occur. Their greed has blinded them to the consequences not just for their customers but also for themselves. I believe if this bubble bursts some banks will go under.


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## heinbloed1 (23 Mar 2005)

*..banks will go under.*

Sure about that.Especially when the home buying mass finds out that their homes are NOT build according to the building regulations,therefore they have no retail/mortgage value!
Read the  "Construct Ireland" magazine .The latest issue no.8 page 40-60.It details that the houses build in the last couple of years do not comply with building regulations part L and are therefore-that is my opinion-erected illegally.
Is any  informed person from the legal profession  out here who could give us a hint:Is a house that had been build as a "home" erected illegally when it is obvious that the builder did not fulfill the planning permission ? Explicit to comply with the building regulations?


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## Gabriel (23 Mar 2005)

*Re: dan 'rose tinted glasses/perma bull' mc laughlin*

*>be a sceptic and form your own opinions*

This sounds an awful lot like, believe what I believe or you're not thinking for yourself, to be honest.


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## rose (23 Mar 2005)

*banks*

On the BBC news it said that BoI will be letting go 2,000 jobs.


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## Tonka (23 Mar 2005)

*BoI see the light !*

Employment growth may be on the up, according to BoI chief economist Dan Mc Guffingagin 

Why Dan Mc Guffingagin  cannot see a shrinkage of 20% in his own enterprise , or explain the reason why, is beyond me  

Would it be because the pipeline for high spread mortgages has  tightened and narrowed dramatically in past months  and with it turnover growth prospects  Dan ?


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## Unregistered (5 Apr 2005)

Yes, it has to fall, look at the crash in the UK now

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4314073.stm


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## Fly (6 Apr 2005)

Just heard an AIB economist on RTE radio talking about housing market having a "slow landing" with price increases going down to 5% this year and 3% per annum over the next 18 months.


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## CCOVICH (6 Apr 2005)

David Smith has said pretty much the same thing (in the Sunday Times and in the BBC article above) about the UK property market.  Saying that the Irish property market will 'definitely' crash is IMHO an unfounded opinion, it would be better to talk in terms of likely outcomes instead of definite outcomes.


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