# Variant of Concern/ Variant of Interest



## Purple (26 Nov 2021)

The new variant of Covid19 which has been detected in South Africa and Botswana is currently classified as a 'Varian of Interest'. The Delta Variant was classified as a 'Variant of Concern'. This link gives more details. It might turn out to be worse than Delta or it might not but we should try to minimise the hyperbole and drama before the facts are known.
It's also another vindication of the WHO's stance that we should have vaccinated the vulnerable in the rich world and then stopped until the vulnerable were vaccinated in the rest of the world in order to protect life, reduce the risk of variants and, well, because it was the right thing to do at the most basic human level. We chose to ignore them because getting back to the pub was more important than hundreds of thousands of lives. Our morally reprehensible selfishness has bitten us in the posterior. It would nearly make me believe in karma. The WHO are now entitled to a huge big "I told you so".


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## Protocol (26 Nov 2021)

Here is some more information:









						Nu, a variant of real concern - Marginal REVOLUTION
					

Here is the Eric Topol thread.  Do read it.  Here is the scary graph, based on preliminary data.  Here is Bloom Lab.  Here is a layperson’s take from the Times of London: When was the variant first discovered? South African authorities raised the alarm at 2pm on Tuesday of this week, when they...




					marginalrevolution.com


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## Laramie (26 Nov 2021)

....but surely we can do both?  Vaccinate the vulnerable in the 3rd world and also give boosters to others.......at the same time.


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## Protocol (26 Nov 2021)

More info on Nu:



			https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1463975943257481216
		




			https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421
		




			https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005676842184705


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## Purple (26 Nov 2021)

Laramie said:


> ....but surely we can do both?  Vaccinate the vulnerable in the 3rd world and also give boosters to others.......at the same time.


Well we haven't for the last year so the evidence suggests otherwise.
Given that there is a finite amount of vaccines we are choosing to let the vulnerable in poor countries die in order to reduce the chances of the young and low risk getting a bit unwell in the rich world.

Edit: more information here. From the link "_Rich countries have about twice the population of low-income countries, yet they have received about 50 times as many Covid-19 vaccine doses, according to an October report from the People’s Vaccine Alliance. The countries with the lowest incomes generally have the lowest Covid-19 vaccination rates.

This vaccination gap is one of the key reasons the disease is still killing more than 6,000 people per day. It’s putting a strain on health systems in countries with already limited resources, fueling hospitalizations, deaths, and economic harm."_

What we are doing is appalling. 'Morally reprehensible' doesn't even begin to describe it.


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## odyssey06 (26 Nov 2021)

It is not clear if the problem in South Africa is lack of vaccines... or lack of uptake.
South Africa has 40% of the population vaccinated, enough coverage so far for any HCWs and the most vulnerable who want the vaccine.

_South Africa asked Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer Inc. to suspend delivery of Covid-19 vaccines as it now has enough stock, an illustration of how plunging demand is undermining the country’s rollout ahead of a potential fourth wave of infections.
“We have over 16 million doses in country, or more than 150 days at present consumption,” Nicholas Crisp, deputy director-general of the Department of Health, said by text message Wednesday. “*It makes no sense to stockpile and risk expiry when others are desperate for supplies.”*_



			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


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## Purple (26 Nov 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> It is not clear if the problem in South Africa is lack of vaccines... or lack of uptake.
> South Africa has 40% of the population vaccinated, enough coverage so far for any HCWs and the most vulnerable who want the vaccine.
> 
> _South Africa asked Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer Inc. to suspend delivery of Covid-19 vaccines as it now has enough stock, an illustration of how plunging demand is undermining the country’s rollout ahead of a potential fourth wave of infections.
> ...


That doesn't change the fact that poor countries haven't had access to vaccines. The data is in the link I posted.


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## Paul O Mahoney (26 Nov 2021)

Well this was story number 2 earlier this morning on BBC  now 15 minutes with expert after expert .

The WHO are meeting today,  Germany, France,  and others have already cancelled flights with immediate effect. 

WHO quy now asking that people get back to mask wearing etc, but also said we have to wait for further analysis which might take a few days to a week. 

He's very animated about the individual country strategy and wants countries to start coordinating as soon as possible on getting poorer countries vaccinated. 

He said something like " unfortunately if we keep following the present strategy,  expect more variants will emerge ".


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## odyssey06 (26 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> That doesn't change the fact that poor countries haven't had access to vaccines. The data is in the link I posted.


It does mean that variants of concern can emerge from sources other than those particular countries.
So I don't know how it is a vindication of the WHO stance given that the variant emerged in a country with enough vaccines to cover its priority citizens?

What access would poor countries have if wealthier nations hadn't developed them?

COVAX has sent 550 million vaccine doses free to poorer countries, with multiples of that number to be delivered.

The vaccines were paid for and developed by richer countries.

Countries have a primary duty to their own citizens. What wealthy country is going to risk lockdowns and restrictions and severe economic consequences by stopping to vaccinate its own citizens, to let poorer countries catch up?

If wealthy \ powerful countries were hoarding vaccines, not using them, and sitting back letting this rip through countries and using the vaccines as a power play, that would be a different situation. But they are using the vaccines on their own citizens while assisting poorer countries to vaccinate their priority citizens via COVAX.


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## Purple (26 Nov 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> It does mean that variants of concern can emerge from sources other than those particular countries.
> So I don't know how it is a vindication of the WHO stance given that the variant emerged in a country with enough vaccines to cover its priority citizens?


We are vaccinating people who have almost no risk of serious illness or death while there are hundreds of millions of people who are highly vulnerable who have had no access to vaccines. The top tow thirds of countries have consumed 50 times more vaccines than the bottom one third. It's like giving life jackets to people who can swim and are still on the boat rather than people who can't swim are in the water. 



odyssey06 said:


> What access would poor countries have if wealthier nations hadn't developed them?


Where would working people be if employers didn't give them jobs. Where would the poor be if the rich didn't pay taxes? Where would the old be if the young didn't pay their pensions and fund their healthcare? 
Would the rich countries be as rich if they were exploiting the resources of poor countries quite as much?



odyssey06 said:


> COVAX has sent 550 million vaccine doses free to poorer countries, with multiples of that number to be delivered.


We've consumed billions of vaccines and COVAX has given out 550 million, a pittance. COVAX also relies on charitable donations to fund much of their work.


odyssey06 said:


> The vaccines were paid for and developed by richer countries.


So what?


odyssey06 said:


> Countries have a primary duty to their own citizens.


I think every life is of equal value. 


odyssey06 said:


> What wealthy country is going to risk lockdowns and restrictions and severe economic consequences by stopping to vaccinate its own citizens, to let poorer countries catch up?


Not to let them catch up, just to vaccinate their over 65's and vulnerable. It's in our interest unless we want constant waves of variants. 
This is as basic as abolishing slavery even though it had economic consequences for rich countries. I'm sure the same arguments were made then.



odyssey06 said:


> If wealthy \ powerful countries were hoarding vaccines, not using them, and sitting back letting this rip through countries and using the vaccines
> as a power play, that would be a different situation.


Why? The outcome is the same. 


odyssey06 said:


> But they are using the vaccines on their own citizens while assisting poorer countries to vaccinate their priority citizens via COVAX.


They are using them on citizens who are at almost zero risk of serious illness or death while healthcare systems in under developed countries are being overwhelmed. There is no moral justification for it. None. It is shameful and despicable and I'm surprised and disappointed that you're defending it.


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## michaelm (26 Nov 2021)

I seem to have liked both Purple's opening post and odyssey's #9 reply.  While they are opposing views I think they are both right to a large degree, depending on what lens you use.  Still, I don't think we should be offering vaccines to under 12's (18's even) and am torn re boosters for the less vulnerable, until at least poorer countries are offered enough vaccines and logistical help to get off their knees.


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## odyssey06 (26 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> We are vaccinating people who have almost no risk of serious illness or death while there are hundreds of millions of people who are highly vulnerable who have had no access to vaccines. The top tow thirds of countries have consumed 50 times more vaccines than the bottom one third. It's like giving life jackets to people who can swim and are still on the boat rather than people who can't swim are in the water.
> 
> 
> Where would working people be if employers didn't give them jobs. Where would the poor be if the rich didn't pay taxes? Where would the old be if the young didn't pay their pensions and fund their healthcare?
> ...


The EU has 800 million doses delivered, the US 550 million doses delivered. Who is this 'we' exactly?
550 million COVAX doses does not seem like a pittance to me.

If every life is of equal value, on what moral grounds do you justify that the EU \ US should have vaccinated any of their citizens first ahead of someone elsewhere in a worse clinical condition? Should there have been a WHO master list of cohorts globally?

Every life is of equal value, right, but what does that mean exactly?
If every life is of equal value, on what moral grounds can Ireland justify spending X on an expensive cancer treatment for 1 person when the same money in the Third World could save 10 (younger) lives?
Or spending money on flood defence to protect properties and businesses, while other countries face floods that kill thousands?
How can we spend money on sending more Irish kids to college, when some kids somewhere in the world don't even get to secondary school?
Countries have duties and responsibilities to their own citizens.

To compare this with slavery, where countries deliberately went to less developed countries and took away people TO not giving out vaccines in a  pandemic not of our making ... is intellectually and morally without foundation. It's so far from reality it actually diminishes and underplays what slavery was.

Given that some European countries are going into lockdown, curfew etc to protect their healthcare systems from being overwhelmed, and here in Ireland we are on the edge ... this is not a cost free decision.

Also, the argument that if we boost in the EU \ US there won't be enough vaccines elsewhere in the next months for the vulnerable - considering the upscale in vaccine capacity - isn't a slam dunk either.
It's not just about the vaccines, it is also about the delivery capacity and uptake in those countries.

So I reject the argument on moral grounds, and as can be seen with reference to South Africa, on practical grounds it is not as persuasive as it appears. It's not the case that if we give the booster vaccines to COVAX, there won't be VOCs. There may be less VOCs but our population will be less protected to those that do emerge.


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## Sunny (26 Nov 2021)

South Africa have done brilliant work with Genomic Surveillance during this pandemic. I doubt Countries will be rushing forward to share findings on new mutations going forward...


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## Paul O Mahoney (26 Nov 2021)

I can't link for some reason .

But Belgium has recorded its first case of the new variant.


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## Purple (26 Nov 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> The EU has 800 million doses delivered, the US 550 million doses delivered. Who is this 'we' exactly?
> 550 million COVAX doses does not seem like a pittance to me.


'We', the richest 2/3 of the world, have consumed 50 times more vaccine than the poorest 1/3. If you think that's right then we'll have to agree to differ.


odyssey06 said:


> If every life is of equal value, on what moral grounds do you justify that the EU \ US should have vaccinated any of their citizens first ahead of someone elsewhere in a worse clinical condition? Should there have been a WHO master list of cohorts globally?


There is no moral ground to do so but given that we'll look after ourselves first it's inevitable that we'd vaccinate our vulnerable cohorts first. The problem is that we then vaccinated those who were at almost no statistical risk of serious illness or death while those in other countries who were at a very high risk remained unvaccinated. 
This isn't just by view, it's the view of the World Health Organisation. 


odyssey06 said:


> Every life is of equal value, right, but what does that mean exactly?
> If every life is of equal value, on what moral grounds can Ireland justify spending X on an expensive cancer treatment for 1 person when the same money in the Third World could save 10 (younger) lives?
> Or spending money on flood defence to protect properties and businesses, while other countries face floods that kill thousands?
> How can we spend money on sending more Irish kids to college, when some kids somewhere in the world don't even get to secondary school?
> Countries have duties and responsibilities to their own citizens.


Yes, countries have duties to their own citizens but we weren't protecting our younger citizens from the same risk as those in poor countries were exposed to. We'd already protected our vulnerable. That was a done deal. 


odyssey06 said:


> To compare this with slavery, where countries deliberately went to less developed countries and took away people TO not giving out vaccines in a  pandemic not of our making ... is intellectually and morally without foundation. It's so far from reality it actually diminishes and underplays what slavery was.


The argument against the abolition of slavery was an economic one. The argument against sharing our vaccines in an equitable way is also an economic one as there is no medical argument for what we have done. And the 'not of our making' thing is questionable. We in the rich world are the ones consuming the resources and producing the pollution that is driving the climate destruction that caused zoonotic transmission of diseases. 


odyssey06 said:


> Given that some European countries are going into lockdown, curfew etc to protect their healthcare systems from being overwhelmed, and here in Ireland we are on the edge ... this is not a cost free decision.


Exactly; it's all about cost. 


odyssey06 said:


> Also, the argument that if we boost in the EU \ US there won't be enough vaccines elsewhere in the next months for the vulnerable - considering the upscale in vaccine capacity - isn't a slam dunk either.


Sure, it's not a slam dunk, just because that's exactly what's happened so far it doesn't mean it will definitely happen again. It's just really really likely that it will happen again.


odyssey06 said:


> It's not just about the vaccines, it is also about the delivery capacity and uptake in those countries.


Yes, we should be helping with that too. 


odyssey06 said:


> So I reject the argument on moral grounds,


Okay, but your morally is based on looking after number one. I find that a strange moral construct. 


odyssey06 said:


> and as can be seen with reference to South Africa, on practical grounds it is not as persuasive as it appears.


South Africa is not part of the bottom third. 


odyssey06 said:


> It's not the case that if we give the booster vaccines to COVAX, there won't be VOCs. There may be less VOCs but our population will be less protected to those that do emerge.


So your argument is that we shouldn't do it because it might not be in our interest. Again, I find that to be a strange moral construct.


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## time to plan (26 Nov 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> I can't link for some reason .


That IS weird.


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## odyssey06 (26 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> 'We', the richest 2/3 of the world, have consumed 50 times more vaccine than the poorest 1/3. If you think that's right then we'll have to agree to differ.
> 
> There is no moral ground to do so but given that we'll look after ourselves first it's inevitable that we'd vaccinate our vulnerable cohorts first. The problem is that we then vaccinated those who were at almost no statistical risk of serious illness or death while those in other countries who were at a very high risk remained unvaccinated.
> This isn't just by view, it's the view of the World Health Organisation.
> ...


The usage\distribution of the vaccine that we produced is not a right\wrong thing.
It's a matter for those countries to decide the allocation of their own production considering the benefit to their own citizens, the risk of VOCs, and their sense of fraternity with other countries. That sense of fraternal assistance is not a moral obligation of the same order as that to one's own citizens.

I don't know what moral construct demands self sacrifice of us or creates a positive over-arching responsibility to aid citizens anywhere in the world to the same extent as we look after our own - and at the expense of our own. Anymore than there is such a moral obligation on us as individuals and in families. 
To equate this with slavery, where acts of commission were carried out to deprive someone of their freedom is wrong on multiple levels. There was a positive duty there to stop actions which were making their lives worse. We're looking after number one in the distribution of the vaccines we produced, but we're not abducting people in Rwanda and stealing their organs or kidnapping them to work in factories to produce the vaccine.

No country is going to stop its vaccination rollout and say no, another country needs it more than us. That's an inevitability.
There is no over-arching moral obligation or duty that compels such action to the detriment of one's own society.
Countries and people may choose to allocate \ donate vaccines, either out of altruistic concern, fraternity, of concern about variants.
They may slow down their rollout, bump up allocation to Covax, and maybe they should be doing so but 50-50 is simply not politically feasible or morally obliged.

We'll have to agree to differ on this at an ideological level, I think we've both made our positions clear.


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## Paul O Mahoney (26 Nov 2021)

_The joint makers of the widely used Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine are assessing how effective their jab is against the new Covid-19 variant recently discovered in South Africa, according to the Reuters news agency.
"We understand the concern of experts and have immediately initiated investigations on variant B.1.1.529," Reuters quotes BioNTech as saying.
The German company will have more insight in two weeks time at the latest, when it receives further data from laboratory tests, according to Reuters.
The firm said the variant "may require an adjustment of our vaccine" if it spreads globally and is found to be capable of escaping immunity."_

I  would imagine a lot of labs are going to be very busy over the next few weeks.


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## odyssey06 (26 Nov 2021)

The new variant has been named as 'Omicron'.

_The health body said that evidence suggests *an increased risk of reinfection with this variant*, as compared to other variants of concern.









						WHO officially designates new Covid strain as variant of concern and names it Omicron
					

The WHO said that there is evidence to suggest an increased risk of reinfection.




					www.thejournal.ie
				



_


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## Sunny (26 Nov 2021)

And no evidence of increased risk of severe illness. 

I wonder if the variant had been found in Germany, what our reaction would have been. Can't see the rest of Europe rushing to impose travel bans before scientists had the chance to do their job.


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## odyssey06 (26 Nov 2021)

Sunny said:


> And no evidence of increased risk of severe illness.
> 
> I wonder if the variant had been found in Germany, what our reaction would have been. Can't see the rest of Europe rushing to impose travel bans before scientists had the chance to do their job.


If you wait for the evidence it's closing the stable door after the horse has bolted... this is a time when the precautionary principle can be justified.

We have treaty obligations with Germany in terms of free movement ... plus official channels where we and other European governments could press Germany to take action itself. We have neither with South Africa. And realistically given the extent of movement between Germany and other European countries, it's a different situation entirely... It likely would be too late by the time it was detected. South Africa vis a vis Botswana or Japan would be a reverse situation.


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## Sunny (26 Nov 2021)

Its already in Belgium and probably by local transmission. Have we banned travel with Belgium? Thousands of people have travelled from South Africa to the UK in the past two weeks. Glad to know treaties are more important than stopping the spread of covid. 

I have no issue with travel restrictions but they won't work. The variant has already left Africa. South Africa did a brilliant job identifying and reporting the variant and they have been completely ostracised. Good luck getting the next country to be transparent. 

Even the WHO have said we need to calm down. There is no evidence to suggest that this variant is any more deadly or the vaccines are any less effective against serious illness. And yet, reading reports today, we might as well all just run for nearest dark cave. 

On the one hard, you have Governments trying to convince people to get vaccinated and take boosters and then you have complete scaremongering that this new variant means that it is all pointless. Let them look at the variant and the vaccines and see what is happening. Some of the reporting today is just ridiculous.


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## Paul O Mahoney (27 Nov 2021)

Sunny said:


> And no evidence of increased risk of severe illness.
> 
> I wonder if the variant had been found in Germany, what our reaction would have been. Can't see the rest of Europe rushing to impose travel bans before scientists had the chance to do their job.


But the whole of the EU has imposed travel bans, I think now there is enough evidence to at least get ready, hopefully it's not as dangerous as feared but labs will busy trying to ascertain that.


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## Paul O Mahoney (27 Nov 2021)

Sunny said:


> Its already in Belgium and probably by local transmission. Have we banned travel with Belgium? Thousands of people have travelled from South Africa to the UK in the past two weeks. Glad to know treaties are more important than stopping the spread of covid.
> 
> I have no issue with travel restrictions but they won't work. The variant has already left Africa. South Africa did a brilliant job identifying and reporting the variant and they have been completely ostracised. Good luck getting the next country to be transparent.
> 
> ...


The Belgium case has been traced to a person flying in from Egypt.

Last year Europe was very slow in preventing the original variant from getting into Italy and we all know what happened.
Travel bans are a blunt instrument but no government is going to sit idly by and do nothing.

Biontech and Pfizer and the other vaccine manufacturers are already studying the new variant and we should have some indication of how transmisable it is and how it affects the vaccines in 2 weeks 

If anything the rollout of boosters will increase but we need to wait for the data, the main concern apparently is the mutations on the spike protein of the virus have increased and it's not known what the effects are.
It might be nothing but early evidence is suggesting higher transmission.


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## joe sod (27 Nov 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> But the whole of the EU has imposed travel bans, I think now there is enough evidence to at least get ready, hopefully it's not as dangerous as feared but labs will busy trying to ascertain that.


Chris Whitty the UK cmo is of the opinion that this is actually less dangerous than the delta variant and widespread scepticism that it can jump the vaccine anyway, hopefully this is looking like a damp squib.
I have no problem with them imposing precautionary travel bans on the affected african countries once they dont start jumping to reimpose general travel bans in Europe.
Also a concern that the government or nphet will use this as an excuse to impose more restrictions generally or to close down hospitality again. However I think the money issue is becoming much more important now, the government know they cannot afford to restrict the economy anymore after spending 40billion euros already on Covid


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## Paul O Mahoney (27 Nov 2021)

joe sod said:


> Chris Whitty the UK cmo is of the opinion that this is actually less dangerous than the delta variant and widespread scepticism that it can jump the vaccine anyway, hopefully this is looking like a damp squib.
> I have no problem with them imposing precautionary travel bans on the affected african countries once they dont start jumping to reimpose general travel bans in Europe.
> Also a concern that the government or nphet will use this as an excuse to impose more restrictions generally or to close down hospitality again. However I think the money issue is becoming much more important now, the government know they cannot afford to restrict the economy anymore after spending 40billion euros already on Covid


There was a Prof on BBC earlier saying that the hysteria needs calming,  he did however agree with travel bans now as a defence until the details of the variant are known.
He also is of the view that the vaccines will still provide protection and the booster even more protection.

I think everyone needs to wait and see what the scientists find out over the coming weeks.
Obviously that's not going to stop certain quarters spreading unsubstantiated analysis.

Europe in general needs to concentrate on the situation it finds itself in now, as it appears to be out of control.


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## Sunny (27 Nov 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> But the whole of the EU has imposed travel bans, I think now there is enough evidence to at least get ready, hopefully it's not as dangerous as feared but labs will busy trying to ascertain that.



The whole world has imposed travel bans even though the WHO advise against them.  South Africa have done the world a favour with the work they did identifying and reporting the variant. The world responded by cutting off a number of African Countries. It is an emotive response that is not backed by science.

South Africa has 3,500 cases of covid with a population of 59m people. There has been a large increase in the past 7 days which could be due to the variant but they don't know. South Africa also only has 40% of their population vaccinated so we have no idea how effective the vaccines are against this variant.

Thousands of people have arrived in Europe in the past week alone. This variant did not appear yesterday. Travel bans just delude people that we can stop this from spreading. We can't. All the travel ban will do is make the next country who identifies a variant of concern very reluctant to report it.


Paul O Mahoney said:


> The Belgium case has been traced to a person flying in from Egypt.
> 
> Last year Europe was very slow in preventing the original variant from getting into Italy and we all know what happened.
> Travel bans are a blunt instrument but no government is going to sit idly by and do nothing.
> ...



The case in Belgium was detected in a woman who traveled from Egypt through Turkey. So how is the ban on African Countries effective in that case? She was  also unvaccinated, presented with symptoms and tested positive 11 days after she arrived back. So she could easily have caught it locally and they admit that. They don't know. Also none of her household have so far tested positive. 

Of course we should be concerned. Of course we should introduce restrictions and increased surveillance but blanket travel bans don't work. And we need to give them time to figure out what is happening.


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## Sunny (27 Nov 2021)

Here is a question that I can't find the answer to. Pfizer have said they will have a new version of the vaccine within 100 days if needed. Why didn't they create a new version for Delta variant? As fas as I know we are still using the vaccine created for Alpha variant. 

Not making accusations or starting conspiracies. Just occurred to me.


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## Paul O Mahoney (27 Nov 2021)

Sunny said:


> Here is a question that I can't find the answer to. Pfizer have said they will have a new version of the vaccine within 100 days if needed. Why didn't they create a new version for Delta variant? As fas as I know we are still using the vaccine created for Alpha variant.
> 
> Not making accusations or starting conspiracies. Just occurred to me.


I believe they said the efficacy was the same but they recognized that it wanes over time thus the booster.

Apparently the virus DNA isn't that complex but the spike protein that is uses to infect us,can and does mutate, but some of those mutations do not harm us and the piece of the spike that r infects us was the same in both Alpha and Delta and that's the piece the vaccines nullify.

This is from memory so don't take it as fact.


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## Sunny (27 Nov 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> I believe they said the efficacy was the same but they recognized that it wanes over time thus the booster.
> 
> Apparently the virus DNA isn't that complex but the spike protein that is uses to infect us,can and does mutate, but some of those mutations do not harm us and the piece of the spike that r infects us was the same in both Alpha and Delta and that's the piece the vaccines nullify.
> 
> This is from memory so don't take it as fact.



Makes sense. Thanks. Just one of those random questions that popped into head in the middle of the night!


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## odyssey06 (27 Nov 2021)

Sunny said:


> The whole world has imposed travel bans even though the WHO advise against them.  South Africa have done the world a favour with the work they did identifying and reporting the variant. The world responded by cutting off a number of African Countries. It is an emotive response that is not backed by science.
> 
> South Africa has 3,500 cases of covid with a population of 59m people. There has been a large increase in the past 7 days which could be due to the variant but they don't know. South Africa also only has 40% of their population vaccinated so we have no idea how effective the vaccines are against this variant.
> 
> ...


Fair points but by limiting numbers maybe it will give contact tracing more chance with the cases identified so far.


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## Paul O Mahoney (27 Nov 2021)

The BBC are now showing Boris, Whitty and Valance giving a briefing on the new variant as 2 cases have been identified. 

It's a long time since one of these were held. Message essentially the same wait until scientists have a look, but it does look like the spike protein has changed significantly, but they don't know what effects on the vaccine will be.

Face masks are back on the agenda


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## Paul O Mahoney (28 Nov 2021)

I'll attempt to pass on what a doctor from SA just said on BBC breakfast.

Firstly she noticed young men presenting (Nov 11 to 18) with extreme fatigue, and a sore throat, and the other normal symptoms, but overall " very mild" symptoms.
After testing and speaking to other doctors they agreed that this was something different and sent samples for further testing. This variant seems to have very similar properties as the Beta Variant from last year, which was replaced quickly by Delta.

No Doctor had referred any case to hospital for further treatment and most people recovered after 3/4 days.

It was recognised that the new variant is highly transmisable and this became the first concern.

She went on to say that those vaccinated seemed to suffer the same symptoms but even milder than those unvaccinated and she had about 50/50 in her practice, making her to say that vaccines still offered some protection. She didn't elaborate on that.

Then her caveat, she said the scientists will need more time to fully evaluate and she said while her experience so far showed mild symptoms that may not be the same as the variant transmits through  the population of SA.

I suppose this is only one Doctors view but it's from the front line. She didn't seem overly concerned but the "wait and see" again seems to be the message.

That Doctor is actually the Chair of the South African Medical Board,  she was just on Andrew Marr show saying the same thing.


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## Paul O Mahoney (28 Nov 2021)

The UK Health Secretary,  Javid, can't answer a question on this issue without the jingoism, he said the UK were first to recognise the new variant, first to restrict travel.........and on and on.


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## Purple (29 Nov 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Apparently the virus DNA isn't that complex but the spike protein that is uses to infect us,can and does mutate,


Small point, but the virus doesn't have DNA. It has RNA. The mRNA vaccine specifically targets the Protein spike that allows the virus to break the hosts cell membrane so mutations to that are, I would think, worrying.


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## Paul O Mahoney (29 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> Small point, but the virus doesn't have DNA. It has RNA. The mRNA vaccine specifically targets the Protein spike that allows the virus to break the hosts cell membrane so mutations to that are, I would think, worrying.


My bad RNA ,should have proof read. Delta's spike had 10 mutations from Alpha but the vaccines still had relatively good results especially on deaths, This variant has 30 mutations and the question of whether it can " vaccine escape " is still unknown. 

Its known that it's highly transmisable and as SAs population is young the effects on older people and those with underlying disease isn't known yet either. 

It's a waiting game now, if this does have the ability to " vaccine escape " we know both Moderna and Pfizer/Biontech can get new vaccines in 100days .

It's all up in the air now and both of those producers are already evaluating.


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## Purple (29 Nov 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> My bad RNA ,should have proof read. Delta's spike had 10 mutations from Alpha but the vaccines still had relatively good results especially on deaths, This variant has 30 mutations and the question of whether it can " vaccine escape " is still unknown.


I sound really picky now but there have been over 12,000 identified mutations of Covid19. Mutations that have a material impact on behaviour are called Variants. There are over 4000 of those. The major Variants are called Strains. there's been 5 of them.


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## Paul O Mahoney (29 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> I sound really picky now but there have been over 12,000 identified mutations of Covid19. Mutations that have a material impact on behaviour are called Variants. There are over 4000 of those. The major Variants are called Strains. there's been 5 of them.


I thought it was more but yeah mutations will continue to happen, but it's the mutations that can affect us are the ones that we need to understand and try and control. In this situation the spike all other mutations appear harmless.... for now.

Its highly probable that one day a virus will develop and we will be defenseless, as I said elsewhere humanity is living a charmed existence , and stop encroaching on parts of the natural world we shouldn't be in.


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## Purple (29 Nov 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> stop encroaching on parts of the natural world we shouldn't be in.


It must be kind of hard to listen to though, for those people in the Amazon and elsewhere, when we start telling them not to cut down their forests. The obvious retort is "where the hell are your forests?" 
It's a bit rich for is to tell poor people that they can't have what we have because it's damaging the environment and causing diseases to spread to humans. I don't see us volunteering to have far less, or even making a material change in our behaviour, in order to facilitate those changes we are insisting they make.


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## Paul O Mahoney (29 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> It must be kind of hard to listen to though, for those people in the Amazon and elsewhere, when we start telling them not to cut down their forests. The obvious retort is "where the hell are your forests?"
> It's a bit rich for is to tell poor people that they can't have what we have because it's damaging the environment and causing diseases to spread to humans. I don't see us volunteering to have far less, or even making a material change in our behaviour, in order to facilitate those changes we are insisting they make.


But the so called "poorer " countries have all the resources that the western world needs and until some kind of equity is found the exploitation will continue. 

I'm still hopeful, naive perhaps, that out this a better way will be found. 

Vaccine ingredients will be lyopholised soon according to some sources and this would enable it to be stored for future use. But the pandemic is only one piece of the jigsaw,  food, shelter and education for poorer countries is the long term solution. 

Off topic a bit, The nuns of the good shepherd are stock holders in Tesla, and are trying to get Musk to pay royalties for the billions of dollars in cobalt and lithium extracted from DRC (Congo) , it failed to be accepted by the Board at last AGM but they aren't stopping in their quest.


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## Paul O Mahoney (8 Dec 2021)

It's being reported that Omicron isn't as dangerous to life as Delta which if true will be a relief to many countries. 

However, there now seems to be another narrative that is circulating that if Omicron becomes dominant, as the data is pointing to that, it will increase the viral load and spawn more variants.


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## Purple (8 Dec 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> It's being reported that Omicron isn't as dangerous to life as Delta which if true will be a relief to many countries.
> 
> However, there now seems to be another narrative that is circulating that if Omicron becomes dominant, as the data is pointing to that, it will increase the viral load and spawn more variants.


Back to my point that our selfishness was not only morally repugnant but self destructive in the medium to longer term.


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## Purple (8 Dec 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> But the so called "poorer " countries have all the resources that the western world needs and until some kind of equity is found the exploitation will continue.
> 
> I'm still hopeful, naive perhaps, that out this a better way will be found.


Be hopeful. We’ve only been aware of how much we are screwing up the world since the 60’s and we’ve fundamentally changed so much of what we do as a result. 
We’ve also reduced world poverty by more than two thirds in the last 30 years (due almost entirely to capitalism). There has never been less poverty. We are doing a great job, but we’ve a ways to go yet. This is the best time in history to be alive and that holds true for most of the world. 
So no doom and gloom. 
We are capable of fixing everything that needs to be fixed and we’ve never been closer to that. Hope is empowering, resignation in the face of a challenge is destructive and weak and very unappealing.


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## Paul O Mahoney (8 Dec 2021)

Purple said:


> Be hopeful. We’ve only been aware of how much we are screwing up the world since the 60’s and we’ve fundamentally changed so much of what we do as a result.
> We’ve also reduced world poverty by more than two thirds in the last 30 years (due almost entirely to capitalism). There has never been less poverty. We are doing a great job, but we’ve a ways to go yet. This is the best time in history to be alive and that holds true for most of the world.
> So no doom and gloom.
> We are capable of fixing everything that needs to be fixed and we’ve never been closer to that. Hope is empowering, resignation in the face of a challenge is destructive and weak and very unappealing.


I'm a glass 3/4 full type of person and I know we can solve the issues but its going to take a paradigm shift in thinking if we are to achieve what needs doing.


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## Purple (8 Dec 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> I'm a glass 3/4 full type of person and I know we can solve the issues but its going to take a paradigm shift in thinking if we are to achieve what needs doing.


In the context of human history the last 30 years have been a blip. We’ve probably got a good bit wrong, such as not targeting childhood poverty and education amongst the bottom billion and not developing safe modern nuclear power as it’s the only alternative to hydrocarbons, but we’ve got a lot right.


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## odyssey06 (17 Dec 2021)

Imperial College London study.... not promising but data is limited.

_The [broken link removed] from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team estimates that the risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the Delta variant. This implies that the protection against reinfection by Omicron afforded by past infection may be as low as 19%.

The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time._









						Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses | Imperial News | Imperial College London
					

The Omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses according to the latest Imperial modelling.




					www.imperial.ac.uk


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## odyssey06 (17 Dec 2021)

Interesting point in New Scientist about variants emerging:
Some virologists think there is a risk with antiviral medication molnupiravir – which is meant to work by inducing so many viral mutations it kills
the virus – and that it should be withdrawn.


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## Paul O Mahoney (17 Dec 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> Imperial College London study.... not promising but data is limited.
> 
> _The [broken link removed] from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team estimates that the risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the Delta variant. This implies that the protection against reinfection by Omicron afforded by past infection may be as low as 19%.
> 
> ...


There are so many conflicting assessments its difficult to understand exactly what is the situation. 

We know that its highly transmisable, we know that a few deaths have occurred because of it, but we really need more data, otherwise we'll be chasing shadows.


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## Paul O Mahoney (17 Dec 2021)

Booster at least 80% effective against severe Omicron
					

Preliminary estimates by researchers suggest the top-up shot should help keep many people out of hospital.



					www.bbc.com
				




Another study/ view that seems to muddle the view even more.


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## Protocol (17 Dec 2021)

__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




"Only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference."


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## Paul O Mahoney (21 Dec 2021)

Interesting story on BBC this morning from SA where scientists are trying to understand where variants are coming from.
While I stress this is a hypothesis and it will take time for anything concrete to come from the work, the scientists seem to believe that people with suppressed immune systems might harbour the virus for months until it breaks free from the host.

It went on to say that as HIV is still part of life in Africa, albeit treated effectively, they believe that the suppressed immune systems of these people might be one of many reasons why variants occur.

Of course other illnesses like Cancer, diabetes etc will cause suppressed immune systems and the people in the report were at pains to say that it's very much a theory and is based on the idea that a healthy immune system would be able to expel any virus like covid in a matter of days/weeks.


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