# Paddy Power giving 5/6 on Bitcoin being below $15,000 on Jan 1 2019



## Brendan Burgess

I backed it yesterday when the odds were 7/5



Unfortunately, the maximum bet was only €145. Still it's like free money, although you have to wait a year for it. 

Brendan


----------



## Fella

How can you say it’s like “Free money” I think you have a valid case on a lot of things but even if we know Bitcoin will crash you can’t predict when , this is nothing like Free money and it’s highly likely you just lost 145€ I think you should be more mindful of your postings and stop encouraging others to gamble. 

I don’t understand how you can stop people speculating on share prices but this is ok ?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Hi Fella 

The maximum bet is €145 so even if I am wrong, the most anyone will lose is €145. 

I would not encourage gambling, but this is a once in a lifetime event. People are paying $14,000 for something which is of no value whatsoever. 

But you are right. The lunacy might last more than another year and people would lose their €145. 

But this is as close to free money as you are ever likely to get. 

Brendan


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

I got on the max at 7/5, tried for much more, first time I’ve been refused a bet by PP


----------



## Boyd

Fella said:


> I don’t understand how you can stop people speculating on share prices but this is ok ?


I agree - seems AAM is gone Bitcoin-crazy in the last few weeks.


----------



## Fella

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi Fella
> 
> The maximum bet is €145 so even if I am wrong, the most anyone will lose is €145.
> 
> I would not encourage gambling, but this is a once in a lifetime event. People are paying $14,000 for something which is of no value whatsoever.
> 
> But you are right. The lunacy might last more than another year and people would lose their €145.
> 
> But this is as close to free money as you are ever likely to get.
> 
> Brendan



I’ve introduced a lot of people to gambling , I had a very good accountant friend who wanted to copy some bets , he started only copying my bets but I found out years later he had lost in excess of 100k and his marriage broke down , I felt partially responsible as I showed him how to lay bets on Betfair .

Gambling is a serious addiction a certain
percentage of people don’t know when to stop and can’t stop I don’t think your acting responsibly with your posts on Bitcoin , you have absolutely no advantage , you wrongly think you have an edge here and want to profit from it even though there is no way to profit even if you turn out to be correct eventually. You are placing bad Bet after bad Bet in what seems like a stubborn way.

Do you really think there are people in IG markets who don’t have the same opinion as you , Bitcoin is worthless, of course there are bit they are making money off you not off Bitcoin , you are the mug here placing that bet at IG markets with a 120 point spread and other costs that is a mug bet , it has no advantage and a negative expected return , stop the nonsense there is no way to profit from this if there was others would be doing it that have much bigger bank rolls.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Hi Fella 

I have to disagree with you on this one. 

You and I might disagree over the right odds for a horse race tomorrow or the correct value of Ryanair shares. 

But Bitcoin is worth nothing but there are people prepared to buy it from me for $14,000 

This is a really rare, once in a lifetime opportunity.  I can get $14,000 for something which is worth nothing. 

Of course there is a risk.  The risk is that the madness continues for longer than I expect and the price rises beyond my threshold which is $34,000. 

But it's not like introducing your friend to Betfair. 

Brendan


----------



## Fella

Brendan Burgess said:


> But Bitcoin is worth nothing



This is where you are wrong and you can’t seem to get your head around it , everything is worth what the market is prepared to pay for it , you can’t change that , Bitcoin is worth what the market says it’s worth. If people are willing to pay 14000 for it then that’s what it’s value will be , there is nothing you can do to devalue trying to convince others it’s worth nothing doesn’t help. If people accept it as been worth something it will continue to be worth something . 

Why can’t you get your head around that ?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Hi Fella

Discussed at length here: 

* Why Bitcoin has value*

*Brendan *


----------



## Fella

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi Fella
> 
> Discussed at length here:
> 
> * Why Bitcoin has value*
> 
> *Brendan *




There are too many threads and posts on Bitcoin to read them all , I don’t believe in Bitcoin but one thing I can say categorically is YOU ARE WRONG , you continue to say Bitcoin is worthless it’s not it’s worth 14,000 , if it was worthless it would cost 0 it doesn’t you might be right some day but today if you want to buy one Bitcoin it doesn’t cost 0 so your wrong. That is a fact we can’t get away from we can argue about Blockchain nodes Gold and whatever else we want till we are all blue in the face , you can post fancy tulip graphs and quote Warren Buffet nothing changes the fact that you are wrong , if you want to buy 1 Bitcoin it costs 14,000 if you want to sell one you can get 14,000 for it , if someone offered me 1 Bitcoin now for 1,000 with the condition I’d have to hang onto it for x months I’d likely get involved , a market has formed and people are accepting it as a value at this moment it has a value , you can come on every thread and say it’s worthless but it’s one of the only things that is fact in all the postings that it’s actually not .


----------



## elacsaplau

Brendan Burgess said:


> Still it's like free money



Whatever the appropriate term for the strongest possible disagreement, I would like to employ it here!

I mentioned previously, Brendan, how your comments lack sufficient "measure" - this is another prime example.

At the outset of this debate, you said that you were an investor and not a gambler and also that you were not used to assessing such gambles. It seems strange to me that you now feel you are in a position to give gambling advice to Fella (of all people).


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Hi Fella

This is why people exchanged tulips for houses.  Some saner people said that the tulips were worthless, but Dhr Fella said no that a single tulip bulb was worth the house because the guy with house was prepared to give away his house for a tulip. 

Some tulip. 

I want to help people to avoid paying $14,000 for a bag of air.  If people like Shortie and fp own a few bags of worthless air, I would like to encourage them to realise their profits. 

If others who can afford the potential losses want to avail of this once in a lifetime opportunity of doing the equivalent of paying a tulip and gaining a house, I would like to help them to discover how. And if they can help me, as Duke has, to understand the spread betting better, then I really appreciate it. 

Brendan


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Fella said:


> There are too many threads and posts on Bitcoin to read them all , I don’t believe in Bitcoin but one thing I can say categorically is YOU ARE WRONG , you continue to say Bitcoin is worthless it’s not it’s worth 14,000 , if it was worthless it would cost 0 it doesn’t you might be right some day but today if you want to buy one Bitcoin it doesn’t cost 0 so your wrong.


Just because you shout does not mean YOU ARE RIGHT.  No one is denying that people are paying the amounts which we see on the trading screens.  If you want to define value as what people are paying right now well then by definition you have made yourself right.

The thread *Why Bitcoin has Value* wouldn't have been opened if the definition was as you state.  One line would have provided the answer.  Instead _fpalb _helpfully gave a very comprehensive reply to the topic's question.

_Fella _I know you are red hot on the football bets but WADR _fpalb _leaves you (and the rest of us for that matter) for dead when it comes to bitcoin.  You think the answer to the question is a one liner, I'll go along with _fpalb's _much more comprehensive answer, if that is okay with you.


----------



## Fella

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Just because you shout does not mean YOU ARE RIGHT.  No one is denying that people are paying the amounts which we see on the trading screens.  If you want to define value as what people are paying right now well then by definition you have made yourself right.
> 
> The thread *Why Bitcoin has Value* wouldn't have been opened if the definition was as you state.  One line would have provided the answer.  Instead _fpalb _helpfully gave a very comprehensive and very long reply to the topic's question.
> 
> _Fella _I know you are red hot on the football bets but WADR _fpalb _leaves you (and the rest of us for that matter) for dead when it comes to bitcoin.  You think the answer to the question is a one liner, I'll go along with _fpalb's _much more comprehensive answer.



But Duke I am 100% right , if you gave me 1 Bitcoin now I could sell it for 14,000 and lodge 14,000 into my bank account , so was the Bitcoin worthless or was it worth something? 

I never claimed to be an expert on Bitcoin or red hot at gambling , I shout out of frustration that Brendan constantly says Bitcoin is worthless. 
If he said Bitcoin will be worthless that is different but no matter what anyone on askaboutmoney says it doesn't change the fact that as of now as I type this Bitcoin is not worthless if I have Bitcoin in my possession I can exchange it for actually currency and then use that currency to buy something , so as I type this nothing else matters , thats my frustration we can argue about the future value all day long but Brendan's comments are made in the present tense and are factually incorrect .

I don't have to know every micro detail of Bitcoin or read up on nodes or _fpalb's _excellent comprehensive answer to tell you the market values Bitcoin at 14,000. That is its value now. 

I bought 5k worth of Foreign and Colonial shares the other day , I once looked the amount of companies they have invested in its thousands , I don't care what they are invested in really , I believe in letting the markets value themselves , someone could write a big long post on why I shouldn't invest or why I should invest in F&C I don't really care there will be counter arguments on each side but eventually the market will put a value on it. I am sure there are 1000's of experts like _ fpalb _on each side of Bitcoin but it means nothing , the market has agreed on its value and debates are pointless.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Fella said:


> If he said Bitcoin will be worthless that is different but no matter what anyone on askaboutmoney says it doesn't change the fact that as of now as I type this Bitcoin is not worthless if I have Bitcoin in my possession I can exchange it for actually currency and then use that currency to buy something , so as I type this nothing else matters , thats my frustration we can argue about the future value all day long but Brendan's comments are made in the present tense and are factually incorrect .


That really is semantic.  There is no debate at all that bitcoin is currently trading at the levels it is.  Everybody knows what Brendan means when he says it is worthless.  If you offered him a bitcoin he would bite your hand off

This site does not as a rule discuss share prices.  But many sites do have such discussion.  If we all took the stance that you take, namely that the share is worth exactly what the market says it is worth, all those sites would shut down.


----------



## Fella

Duke of Marmalade said:


> That really is semantic.  There is no debate at all that bitcoin is currently trading at the levels it is.  Everybody knows what Brendan means when he says it is worthless.  If you offered him a bitcoin he would bite your hand off
> 
> This site does not as a rule discuss share prices.  But many sites do have such discussion.  If we all took the stance that you take, namely that the share is worth exactly what the market says it is worth, all those sites would shut down.



They should be shut down you don’t beat the market well there are a tiny % that do but do you really read posts from people on boards or motley fool etc and take them opinions? 

I’m happy to believe in market efficiencies I don’t care what anyone on a forum think a share is worth it’s there for the masses to value , saves me time and it’s going to be correct far more often.


----------



## Fella

If you can get better odds than Betfair lay odds you will finish up , it’s one of the fundamentals I learned early on in gambling. We actually had a post on an old gamblingtimes forum ill try find it think it was called “should I lay arbs for profit “ or mug all value bets , over thousands of bets nobody was down and most where up the average price advantage over Betfair Lay odds , market efficiency works very very well , there are thousands of forums discussing gambling no need , Bet above Betfair lay odds and you’ll finish up , discussion over I tell people it’s true it’s simple and it works .


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Fella said:


> If you can get better odds than Betfair lay odds you will finish up , it’s one of the fundamentals I learned early on in gambling. We actually had a post on an old gamblingtimes forum ill try find it think it was called “should I lay arbs for profit “ or mug all value bets , over thousands of bets nobody was down and most where up the average price advantage over Betfair Lay odds , market efficiency works very very well , there are thousands of forums discussing gambling no need , Bet above Betfair lay odds and you’ll finish up , discussion over I tell people it’s true it’s simple and it works .


Very rare these days.  Maybe round Cheltenham time bookies are giving sweeteners which really are value bets but for very limited stakes.  Anyway better avoid a topic fork.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Fella

Can I ask you what you think the price of Bitcoin will be in one year? 

And fair enough if you have no opinion on it. 

Brendan


----------



## Fella

Brendan Burgess said:


> Fella
> 
> Can I ask you what you think the price of Bitcoin will be in one year?
> 
> And fair enough if you have no opinion on it.
> 
> Brendan



I have no idea what price it will be. 

We are largely singing from the same hymn sheet , this could be a block of lego selling for 14,000 I'm with you its ridiculous but neither myself or yourself can predict how high this block of lego will rise to , all the chat about it in the world won't effect the lunacy of the price of this lego and ultimately if people want to start paying 50k for a piece of lego and everyone excepts thats the price then there is very little we can do about it. 

My point is largely that it has gone to market now the option is there to short sell it or buy it on large exchanges  I would have expected the price to collapse after the option was there to short it on large exchanges but it hasn't really, it has a value like anything else on an exchange , we may not agree with that value but thats the current accepted price for this lego block. We can't profit from it even if we know ultimately the world will come to its senses and see it for what it is.

Would I pay 1,000 for a piece of lego now with the condition I had to hold it for a year , yes probably so I'm part of the madness , there are going to be enough believers now that if Bitcoin falls they will buy it back and hold the price up , it seems like normal market forces at work here. 

I have nothing against you or your site but Bitcoin is worthless comment gets to me , we don't know when this lunacy will end or if it will even ever end , I won't ever be getting involved in it .


----------



## MrEarl

Brendan Burgess said:


> ....But this is as close to free money as you are ever likely to get.
> 
> Brendan



Happy New Year Mr. Burgess,

Never in my entire life, did I think the day would come when you would describe placing a bet as being "as close to free money as you are ever likely to get" 

Between mention of Paddy Power and spread betting only a week or two earlier, I fear for what this alternative investment forum may be turning you into  



*Getting back to the actual bet*

It will be interesting to see if anyone else is interested in taking the bet, even with slightly revised odds, given some of the predictions on the future price of Bitcoin that we've seen in the other discussion thread.

Those who believe in their predictions may well fancy a small flutter.



.


----------



## TheBigShort

Brendan Burgess said:


> I backed it yesterday when the odds were 7/5
> 
> 
> 
> Unfortunately, the maximum bet was only €145. Still it's like free money, although you have to wait a year for it.
> 
> Brendan



I just copped that 5/6 bet below $15,000. That means its 5/6 bet to be above $15,000?

Free money either way, until you do the maths!


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Fella said:


> all the chat about it in the world won't effect the lunacy of the price of this lego and ultimately if people want to start paying 50k for a piece of lego and everyone excepts thats the price then there is very little we can do about it.



Agree that is the price but it's not the value. They are different things. 

And I agree that there is a risk that the lunacy could get worse and I could lose my spread bet. 

But I think where we differ is that at some stage the lunacy has to end. Bitcoin has to drop to zero.  I would love to know the path and the timing. But I am very happy with a €135 bet that it will end up at zero this time next year.  Even if the lunacy continues, it will be below $15,000. 

Brendan


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

_Fella _it occurs to me that you are actually in the "bitcoin is lunacy" school along with the _Boss _and me.   I hope you would agree that if bitcoin is lunacy that will eventually dawn on the market.  Of course even those who are convinced that this is the case cannot call the timing of the bubble bursting.  The _Boss _is not asserting that he will assuredly win his bet or that his short is a certainty, after all he has placed a stop loss.  It's a judgment call.  I would have thought  the "bitcoin is lunacy" school would agree that the balance of probability is very much in his favour.  (oops my post crossed with the _Boss_')


----------



## Dan Murray

Brendan Burgess said:


> Even if the lunacy continues, it will be below $15,000.



Brendan,

You are making a very basic mistake here - confusing what you believe as highly probable with certain. In gambling, that can be fatal.

You cannot be certain that it will be less than €15k next year - that's just wrong.

As others have said, it's also wrong to describe your PPOW bet as "free money".


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Dan Murray said:


> You cannot be certain that it will be less than €15k next year



Correct. 

I can be only about 99% sure. 

But the odds I got were 7/5 for a bet with a close to zero chance of losing.  

As I said, like free money, but not quite free money.

Brendan


----------



## BreadKettle

I'll take the BTC to zero bet anytime you like Brendan, you name the date. 

If it's zero on that date I'll send you a grand, if it's not you post a photo of you wearing


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Hi BK

Let's just clarify this.  If it reaches zero, you will send me €1,000. 

If it's above that, I have to post a picture of myself wearing the I love Bitcoin T shirt? 

I'm on.

I will post it now, if you send the €1,000 now to a charity of my choice. 

Brendan


----------



## Dan Murray

Brendan Burgess said:


> I can be only about 99% sure.



Again, this is simply not possible.


----------



## TheBigShort

Brendan Burgess said:


> I can be only about 99% sure.



No disrespect Brendan but what gives you the greater insight to the price being below $15,000 as opposed to being above $15,000?
Its fair to that PP is offering the same odds 5/6 on the price being above $15,000, is it?


----------



## BreadKettle

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi BK
> 
> Let's just clarify this.  If it reaches zero, you will send me €1,000.
> 
> If it's above that, I have to post a picture of myself wearing the I love Bitcoin T shirt?
> 
> I'm on.
> 
> I will post it now, if you send the €1,000 now to a charity of my choice.
> 
> Brendan



100% - once Bitcoin reaches a price of zero. By any date, you name it.


----------



## Fella

Brendan Burgess said:


> Correct.
> 
> I can be only about 99% sure.
> 
> But the odds I got were 7/5 for a bet with a close to zero chance of losing.
> 
> As I said, like free money, but not quite free money.
> 
> Brendan




These are the posts I really struggle with but if your 99% sure i'll offer you odds that be hard to turn down.

I'll lay you up to 100k euro at 1/10 on Bitcoin price above/below $15,000 on 31 December 2018

So to be clear you can win a max of 10,000


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Fella said:


> These are the posts I really struggle with but if your 99% sure i'll offer you odds that be hard to turn down.
> 
> I'll lay you up to 100k euro at 1/10 on Bitcoin price above/below $15,000 on 31 December 2018
> 
> So to be clear you can win a max of 10,000


 Why should he take those odds when he can get far better value by shorting in IG?


Fella said:


> They should be shut down you don’t beat the market well there are a tiny % that do but do you really read posts from people on boards or motley fool etc and take them opinions?
> 
> I’m happy to believe in market efficiencies I don’t care what anyone on a forum think a share is worth it’s there for the masses to value , saves me time and it’s going to be correct far more often.


Actually I'm with you there, I would never try to beat the market.  But all the learned ones are saying this is a bubble, that is they are saying that this time the market is irrational.  As a great believer in the market I don't think it will stay irrational for long, this is a very rare opportunity to exploit.


----------



## Fella

Well Duke it’s Free money for him , he’s 99% sure I’m not asking him to put the cash up front , I’ll show a screenshot of 10k I’ll transfer to a separate account , I’ll take Brendan’s word as he’s well known if he’s wrong he can sell shares or something to pay me I don’t mind. In his mind 99% of the time he will never have to pay me , I think I’m been fair 1/10 on a dead cert and he can have it on Credit .


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

TheBigShort said:


> Im more intrigued with the call for the date. Anyone following bitcoin will be aware of its volatility. Also aware of its 9yr bull run.
> Im guessing anyone can guess its price will fall, but its the timing of the call im intrigued with.
> Afterall PP is effectively calling it 50:50 (excluding their cut), what insight do you have to call it 99% certain?


I think you misunderstand the role of a bookie.  It is not to stake his judgement against the populace, is to try and strike the balance in the populace so as to make his cut.  Brendan and I bet €145 each at 7/5, maybe others were in as well, all the same it was pretty easy to get PP to make a fairly dramatic change from 7/5 to 5/6.


----------



## landlord

BreadKettle said:


> I'll take the BTC to zero bet anytime you like Brendan, you name the date.
> 
> If it's zero on that date I'll send you a grand, if it's not you post a photo of you wearing



I want a peice of that action too !!!


----------



## elacsaplau

Fella said:


> Well Duke it’s Free money for him , he’s 99% sure I’m not asking him to put the cash up front , I’ll show a screenshot of 10k I’ll transfer to a separate account , I’ll take Brendan’s word as he’s well known if he’s wrong he can sell shares or something to pay me I don’t mind. In his mind 99% of the time he will never have to pay me , I think I’m been fair 1/10 on a dead cert and he can have it on Credit .



Fella,

This is a wonderful offer for Brendan given his 99% certainty and that he can't get enough action with Paddy Power.

You have first mover advantage but I'll be happy to replicate your odds if Brendan wants to put any amount of additional money where his mouth has been.

I will not replicate your terms, however. Anyone who misunderstands betting and probability as much as Brendan could get themselves into a lot of trouble and may, very well, not have the readies this time next year. Add in a complete inability to acknowledge alternate views and you arrive at a dangerous place indeed.

On multiple occasions, Brendan has said he doesn't know when the BTC bubble will burst (only that it will, for sure, burst at some stage) - we are now to believe that "no idea when it will burst" magically translates to a 99% probability of it being less than €15k by the end of 2018.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Fella said:


> I'll lay you up to 100k euro at 1/10 on Bitcoin price above/below $15,000 on 31 December 2018



Hi Fella

I don't think you should be placing €10k at 10/1 on.  You could win €100k, but you are much more likely to lose your €10k. 

But it's a mad market and there are much better odds available for the seller. 

If I want to risk €100k , I would sell 5 Bitcoin for $90k and close out the position if Bitcoin rises by $20k. 

If Bitcoin crashes to zero, I collect $90k - but I will probably close the position earlier to collect my winnings. 

Brendan


----------



## Firefly

Brendan Burgess said:


> I backed it yesterday when the odds were 7/5
> 
> 
> 
> Unfortunately, the maximum bet was only €145. Still it's like free money, although you have to wait a year for it.
> 
> Brendan


Thanks Brendan,
I may just open an account for this myself.
The odds seem extremely generous. The odds are close to even. I would bet  that if you offered 100 people the option to bet whether Bitcoin would be worth more or less that 15k at the end of 2018 the majority would say less.


----------



## Bronte

Brendan Burgess said:


> I backed it yesterday when the odds were 7/5
> 
> 
> 
> Unfortunately, the maximum bet was only €145. Still it's like free money, although you have to wait a year for it.
> 
> Brendan



Surely you can avoid the max bet by going around to a load of bookie offices and placing the same bet many times.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Bronte said:


> Surely you can avoid the max bet by going around to a load of bookie offices and placing the same bet many times.


Good point but I think it is only available online


----------



## ant dee

Bronte said:


> Surely you can avoid the max bet by going around to a load of bookie offices and placing the same bet many times.


If only it were that easy, I would be rich!
In reality, even small bets on small markets need approval from the HQ. HQ also looks at the logs from online bets but you might be able to place it once more at the shop.
Second shop will kick you out though, even if you send a different friend to try to bet for you.

Anyway, all that would happen if the bets had any advantage. If they accept multiple bets on one's bitcoin price predictions, it really means he is a mug


----------



## ant dee

Brendan Burgess said:


> I have yet to see any of the believers showing a calculation to justify any value on Bitcoin. Any value at all. Just vague ideas about limited supply and great technology and *the collapse of capitalism*.


Hi Brendan,
Where did you source this idea from?
One would think Bitcoin and free-market capitalism would go hand by hand.


----------



## Fella

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Very rare these days.  Maybe round Cheltenham time bookies are giving sweeteners which really are value bets but for very limited stakes.  Anyway better avoid a topic fork.



I was reading more of your posts Duke and you come across as very clever but then I remembered this post and I didn't want to derail thread but i'll be honest there are lots of people not just yourself who post things as fact and only for I know it is wholly inaccurate ( like this post above ) I would believe it. 
I'm careful in what I post and I always avoid topics that I'm clueless about or I'd post in a questionable way but lots of people seem to be experts in everything. It makes me doubt what else your posting , I think people should be more mindful in there postings , if you believe that to be true you have no clue about bookies but you still posted it anyway.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Fella said:


> I was reading more of your posts Duke and you come across as very clever but then I remembered this post and I didn't want to derail thread but i'll be honest there are lots of people not just yourself who post things as fact and only for I know it is wholly inaccurate ( like this post above ) I would believe it.
> I'm careful in what I post and I always avoid topics that I'm clueless about or I'd post in a questionable way but lots of people seem to be experts in everything. It makes me doubt what else your posting , I think people should be more mindful in there postings , if you believe that to be true you have no clue about bookies but you still posted it anyway.


_Fella _I'm taking that post in good faith.  As you can see  I have plenty of time on my hands. Are you saying that there are arb opportunities more or less daily on ATR?  If there are I am sure I will find them, but if you tell me they are as hard to find as bitcoin mining (keeping on topic) I won't bother looking.


----------



## Dan Murray

Duke of Marmalade said:


> That place was written about 400 years ago by a guy called Sir Thomas More.  He called it Utopia.



Just to be accurate, STM wrote Utopia in 1516 in Latin (that curious and beautiful language). Obviously, utopias existed, in conception if not in name, long before then. Think Plato, etc.

Interestingly, in terms of the current discussion, in More's Utopia, gold is valueless and just used to make chamber posts.


----------



## Fella

Duke of Marmalade said:


> _Fella _I'm taking that post in good faith.  As you can see  I have plenty of time on my hands. Are you saying that there are arb opportunities more or less daily on ATR?  If there are I am sure I will find them, but if you tell me they are as hard to find as bitcoin mining (keeping on topic) I won't bother looking.



Well finding arbs daily is easy , keeping your accounts is the hard part. There are arb finding sites that scan all the odds against Betfair and list them and the percentage value of each arb. Nowadays I'd never dream of taking a standard single arb like this its too easy to lose accounts , I was taking advanced arbs for years that are harder to spot for bookies.

Theres just so much to learn about the topic , its all about staying under the radar and advancing but I can find an arb any minute of any day , theres also live betting which is limitless , going on ATR and having an oddshcecker is pointless its going to get you closed fairly quickly, an example of an advanced arb I foudn using asian bookies for part of the bet (the don't limit you ) and a mainstream bookie for the -1 handicap part is below , your not going to understand it but your 10 years behind where I am now so I don't expect you too , its a skill learned over years and if you invest in the educating yourself you will make endless money on it.









There are simpler things like Betfair acca's that I mentioned before available about twice a week also but theres nothing there at the moment to give you an example of but there was a 14% value bet there the other day with 50,000 available to back so the opportunities are there for the willing and able


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

_Fella _fascinating as some of your earlier posts (in other threads) were.  I think I have worked out what the example is saying.  Key is the Asian Handicap on the Away side.  It must take a lot of looking to find these.  Is it mostly the footie that it works on or are there arbs in horse racing?  Actually I would like to be banned by a bookie, something to boast about

I stand ejected  My mother told me that you never see a poor bookie.  I took that to mean don't try to beat them but I see you have genuinely found a way to do so.  It is not without effort, do you think a decent living can be made at it?


----------



## Dan Murray

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Actually I would like to be banned by a bookie, something to boast about



I don't know a serious (non-mug) gambler who has not been banned many times from bookies (hence: my bolding in post 68)!


----------



## Brendan Burgess

I have not followed the Duke's views on Global Warning, but the Duke is not an expert in that area. 

The Duke clearly has expertise in finance and investment and economics.  He would know the experts. 

Brendan


----------



## Fella

Duke of Marmalade said:


> That's a fair point.  But as I have stated on many occasions it is not just my naive common sense that informs me but some considerable research into the views of those who are expert in the field of economics and monetary phenomena.
> 
> This all suggests to me that there is a high probability (is that okay _Dan_?) that the economists are right and that a hundredfold increase in price in two years without any significant shift in fundamentals looks, waddles and quacks like a bubble.
> 
> But there is no arb available here, no certain way to make money but surely a way to get the odds very heavily on your side, once in a lifetime I think the _Boss _calls it.




I agree with you and Brendan in nearly everything but I don't agree with the last statement that the odds are heavily on your side , I think its as likely to rise as it is to fall over the short term.

I agree with this guy - Japan Post Bank Chief Investment Officer Katsunori Sago 

The futures contract is expected to make it possible for institutional investors to short the digital currency.

But Sago said it is hard to predict when and where a bubble will burst, and therefore, the bank is not interested in shorting bitcoin.

Sago noted that blockchain is a great technology and one day bitcoin could become a major means of settlement.

“But that will be years away, possibly more than a decade -- so there’s no need to buy bitcoin now. Since no one knows when the bubble will burst, the best thing to do here is to stay away from it,” he said.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

No way would I take a short term punt, but I am interested in this Betfair end 2018 bet, wouldn't touch their End January.  So Sago describes it as a bubble. Bubble's do burst but yes very difficult to time.


----------



## Fella

Duke of Marmalade said:


> No way would I take a short term punt, but I am interested in this Betfair end 2018 bet, wouldn't touch their End January.  So Sago describes it as a bubble. Bubble's do burst but yes very difficult to time.



Your trying to guess when people's belief will end , people are mad - irrational behaviour is just that , I'd rather put my money into something that has an actual outcome , this could go on forever but I wish you all luck. I'm coming at this as an advantage player and try as I am I can't see the advantage you and Brendan feel you's have. I would trust a computer over a human in predicting market crashes , humans absolutely suck at predicting boom and bust.


----------



## Gordon Gekko

Its value is derived from a few attributes:

- It is a handy way for criminals and terrorists to invest

- Blockchain technology may have some merit

- Idiots are jumping on the bandwagon with a view to making a quick buck (classic end of bubble euphoria)

Regulation will deal with the first point, Bitcoin and Blockchain are different things, and idiots always get burned towards the end of a bubble.

We are now dealing in semantics; Brendan says it is worth nothing; it is nit-picking to disagree. Yes, it is clearly worth something because its market value today is significant. However, there is more than a reasonable degree of certainty that it will be worth little or nothing within a reasonable timeframe. Bitcoin is a four bedroom house in Leitrim for €800,000...it is a tulip bulb for €10,000...it is a share in Anglo Irish Bank for €18...it represents a rare investment opportunity in that its market value today is high whereas its market value in the short to medium term will be nil or negligible.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Fella said:


> Your trying to guess when people's belief will end , people are mad - irrational behaviour is just that , I'd rather put my money into something that has an actual outcome , this could go on forever but I wish you all luck. I'm coming at this as an advantage player and try as I am I can't see the advantage you and Brendan feel you's have. I would trust a computer over a human in predicting market crashes , humans absolutely suck at predicting boom and bust.


_Fella _I am hugely impressed at your success against the enemy and the fact that you don't see a bitcoin short punt as a good thing genuinely gives me pause, enough to limit my exposure, but I have gone short, if for no other reason so as to avoid kicking myself when the bubble bursts.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Gordon Gekko said:


> Bitcoin is a four bedroom house in Leitrim for €800,000...it is a tulip bulb for €10,000...it is a share in Anglo Irish Bank for €18...it represents a rare investment opportunity in that its market value today is high whereas its market value in the short to medium term will be nil or negligible.



Hi Gordon

Very well put. Were 4 beds in Leitrim really going for €800k?  

Brendan


----------



## Fella

Duke of Marmalade said:


> _Fella _I am hugely impressed at your success against the enemy and the fact that you don't see a bitcoin short punt as a good thing genuinely gives me pause, enough to limit my exposure, but I have gone short, if for no other reason so as to avoid kicking myself when the bubble bursts.



Don't limit your exposure on my behalf , I just don't want to see people lose money. The lunacy could go on for another few years if you keep placing say 5% of your bankroll on it falling and it doesn't after year 1 its hard not to risk more in year 2 and then more in year 3 etc , I'm not a gambler , I am an advantage player and there is not enough of an advantage for me to get involved , I think the whole thing is lunacy but we live in a crazy world . But just because I don't see it as been a great bet doesn't mean it's not I'm just not that knowledgeable on the subject so it really helps that I believe in market forces and efficiency it saves me guessing.


----------



## Gordon Gekko

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi Gordon
> 
> Very well put. Were 4 beds in Leitrim really going for €800k?
> 
> Brendan



I can tell you that property prices in Leitrim rose by 29% in 2006...the highest growth rate in the country.

Had you been saying at the time that “these are worth nothing”, you’d have been correct, notwithstanding any pedant who might have contended that “they were clearly worth something”.

This is mad stuff...it’s magic beans meets the fella with the $25m in the Bank of Lagos that needs our help to access it.


----------



## fpalb

I really like the posts Fella has made on this thread. I've a few random thoughts that are perhaps relevant to this thread.

I think people often divide things into risky and non-risky. Bitcoin is risky, prize bonds are non-risky - therefore prize bonds are better. This might surprise some but I used to be hugely risk averse, to the extent that I never wanted to take on any debt, even a mortgage if I could avoid it, and I hesitated to invest in anything other than saving fiat and term deposits. Part of this was avoiding things I didn't fully understand and part of it was not wanting to risk my hard earned money.

I eventually realised there is nothing that is non-risky, it's a scale not an absolute, there is just varying degrees of risk. I apply this to a wide range of things in life not just investing, and I consider investing as just a low risk type of gambling. Is it better to sit down at the poker table with 1000 or invest it in a stock? It depends on your risk tolerance, whether you can afford to lose it or not, what percentage of your worth 1000 represents, how good you are at poker compared to the people you'll play against, how much you know about the stock etc... Every case has to be evaluated.

On the boards.ie investing forum a single Bitcoin related thread sat side by side with a prize bond related one on the investment forum for years. People with up to tens of thousands in prize bonds each week posting the odd 50 quid win, many of whom seemed to have no other investments. They see it as no risk I guess, but they risk their euros devaluing in real terms, they have a negligible counter-party risk of the state failing and not paying them back (but why not mention it anyway), and they have the risk of opportunity-cost due to not having exposure to higher risk investments that offer higher returns.

Now, you can say that last one isn't a risk at all, it's just opportunity cost, but personally these days I consider both in equal measure. A guy with 50 in prizebonds in 2013 could have taken 200 of that and put it in bitcoin. As it has turned out his worst case was having 49800 + pb winnings if bitcoin went to zero, or 78k+ as it has turned out. This is just an example, I'm not saying it was obvious or knowable that bitcoin would increase, that's not my point here at all, more-so that not taking risks IS the risk that you miss out on potential gains.

Following on from that thought, people today are being forced into more risk than ever, and not just in terms of investments. There is much less job stability (less jobs for life), there is more risk with taking on a mortgage as you may be unemployed or have to move for another job. Before you even get to that, Americans now are facing the risk of even going to university, they may leave with huge debt and no guarantee of a job afterwards that will have made it worth it. Due to the computer revolution society is changing faster than ever in human history.

I see a bit of a change in attitude among the millennials, they know they can try to do everything in the old fashioned non-risk way, get a high level of education, save for a deposit, buy a house, invest in standard mutual funds for a pension etc, but it can go wrong at every turn. A crazy rental market can prevent them ever getting that deposit, the mortgage may in reality be an anchor more than a home, the pension may be raided by the government if there's a large scale economic crash again. More of them are going their own way, the internet is letting people take other paths which don't seem as risky as before. Drive an uber, do air b&b, day trade bitcoin, play video games for a living on twitch,  be a content creator on youtube. You can try things, start small see what works and find your own way, find where you have an edge.

When there is no real safe option, people will be more inclined to take risks, and it's not necessarily a bad thing in moderation.

EDIT: I think you can even see this with Brendan - he does not want to risk missing out on bitcoin falling to zero.


----------



## Dan Murray

fpalb said:


> I really like the posts Fella has made on this thread. I've a few random thoughts that are perhaps relevant to this thread...........



This is truly a superb post. Bravo squared....

Frankly, I am amazed that it hasn't received more traction. It is written in such accessible terms that belie the depth of wisdom it contains.

I really don't say this often but _magnum opus, magnum opus_ indeed.


----------



## fpalb

Thanks for the kind words Dan. I actually went off on such a tangent that I forgot two things I had originally meant to include 

Firstly, I think if you want to profit from the possibility of bitcoin falling the spread betting option is probably much better than betting on the price on a specific date such as this PP bet. For example I think there's a higher chance bitcoin dips to 8k *sometime* in the next year than that it will be below 15k on a specific date at the end of the year.

Secondly, is anyone reading this aware of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and if I'm curious about your opinions? I read his book _The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable _and found it very interesting both in general and in terms of the bitcoin phenomenon. It's a bit long winded but If you enjoy my posts and considering outside-the-box thoughts about risk, probability and human behaviour it's worth a read, or maybe start with the wikipedia page about Black Swan Theory


----------



## Fella

Fpalb excellents posts you write really well, I have that book myself it’s a great read.

I did consider Brendan’s bets today and the problem I see with the spread Bet is there is often a rally just before the bubble bursts which might take out his spread bet on the way to it collapsing. 
( this is not an opinion on it been a bubble that will collapse , but a scenario in which Brendan’s correct prediction yields a loss ).


----------



## fpalb

Thanks Fella, you're right, it's a trade off of whether you think you can better predict the upper limit this year, versus predict the timing of the drop. I'd still be more comfortable with the former, especially since you could bail out of the spread bet for a partial loss if there was legitimate news that was likely to result in a sustained rally.


----------



## ant dee

Taleb's books are great reads indeed.
He also mentioned that there is no way to properly short bitcoin. Any strategy that doesn't entail options is nonergodotic.
Is there still no put option to short bitcoin?


----------



## 24601

fpalb said:


> I think people often divide things into risky and non-risky. Bitcoin is risky, prize bonds are non-risky - therefore prize bonds are better. This might surprise some but I used to be hugely risk averse, to the extent that I never wanted to take on any debt, even a mortgage if I could avoid it, and I hesitated to invest in anything other than saving fiat and term deposits. Part of this was avoiding things I didn't fully understand and part of it was not wanting to risk my hard earned money.
> 
> I eventually realised there is nothing that is non-risky, it's a scale not an absolute, there is just varying degrees of risk. I apply this to a wide range of things in life not just investing, and I consider investing as just a low risk type of gambling. Is it better to sit down at the poker table with 1000 or invest it in a stock? It depends on your risk tolerance, whether you can afford to lose it or not, what percentage of your worth 1000 represents, how good you are at poker compared to the people you'll play against, how much you know about the stock etc... Every case has to be evaluated.



I remember being in a Risk Management lecture a couple of years back with the lecturer stressing that risk is a line, not a point, which is obvious but not necessarily how most people perceive risk. Like you say even capital-guaranteed, low return options can cause losses. There's obviously a huge difference in the total loss of capital versus capital erosion through inflation but it is an interesting point. I think the vast majority of people don't have the financial freedom (or risk appetite) to take punts on risks where the risk-return equation gives you a probable loss of your entire investment 90%+ of the time and Bitcoin now has that feel of Joe Bloggs trying to get in on the action, which is generally a good indication that it's heading toward the cliff edge. 

As Benjamin Graham once said, price is what you pay, value is what you get. I can't see any value in Bitcoin once the bottom falls out of it. It's obviously very "valuable" for those that have already cashed, out but the near-religious fervour around it from some quarters would suggest that it's going to sting some of the early purchasers pretty badly when the price plummets towards zero, whenever that may be. Whether or not it'll be above or below €15k on 01.01.19 is anyone's guess but with a max bet of €145 it's probably with risk tolerance! 

As far a millennials are concerned, have you worked with or managed any? I think their approach to risk probably says more about their attitudes than anything else.


----------



## fpalb

24601 said:


> I think the vast majority of people don't have the financial freedom (or risk appetite) to take punts on risks where the risk-return equation gives you a probable loss of your entire investment 90%+ of the time


Pretty much everyone can afford to take punts, it's just a matter of how little they can afford to stake. The risk doesn't even have to be directly monetary anyway, it can be the risk of attempting to start your own business instead of going to university for example.

But anyway my point was don't be surprised if increasing numbers do have the risk appetite, because they may feel that if they don't take risks they will never have financial freedom.


24601 said:


> As far a millennials are concerned, have you worked with or managed any? I think their approach to risk probably says more about their attitudes than anything else.


My comments were about their attitudes.


----------



## Inigo

I need to chime in. The biggest bubble I see here is in posts by Brendan about Bitcoin. I think we got it Brendan, you are a sceptic. How about you leave it at that? It's fair enough to be a Bitcoin bear, that's a valid position. What's not valid is the idea that it will soon collapse to zero. It might fall to 10K or 5K or even 2K but zero??? Please. It's not possible to take you seriously when you post such nonsense.

Brendan, you post relentlessly with your anti-shilling, it's frankly quite tiresome. But I would actually respect your tirades if you really put your money where your mouth is. Risking only 145 euro is just childish. Where's your conviction? I mean you're 99% certain, aren't you?

I politely propose that you either put up or shut up. Your opinion is always valid but your relentless posting is getting boring now and is bringing down the quality of this forum overall IMO. I don;t think this forum should be dominated by your personal agendas. And I think your post about the end-of-the-world doomsayer is highly ironic.


Edit: even if Bitcoin is priced at 14,999 in 1 year and you win your bet, it means very little. Bitcoin is very volatile and the price could be almost anything on any given future date, that doesn't mean it's going to zero or to a million. In fact, given your statements, if Bitcoin is 14,999 in a year you would have been grossly in error overall even if you technically win that specific bet.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Hi Inigo 

Thanks for your measured comments. 

It's important to point out that Bitcoin is worth nothing. It has no value. 

It will reach zero at some stage. I suspect that this will happen during 2018, but the timing of bubbles is very hard to predict. 

The Paddy Power bet was that it will be below $15,000 in a year's time. I would have bet a lot more had the limit been higher. 



> It might fall to 10K or 5K or even 2K but zero???



The issues are discussed at greater length here: 

*If Bitcoin was worth $1 each in 2011, why are they worth $12,000 each now?*



Inigo said:


> Brendan, you post relentlessly with your anti-shilling, it's frankly quite tiresome.



When the suggestion of a Bitcoin forum was first made, I was strongly opposed to it as I thought it would give it a credibility which it does not deserve.  But as there are many people looking for informed commentary on it, I dropped my opposition. It appears that some of the contributors here have substantial holdings of Bitcoin. It may annoy them to have their faith questioned, but if they listen to the comments, they may may well preserve their wealth. Otherwise, they will lose it all.

Brendan


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Inigo said:


> I politely propose that you either put up or shut up. Your opinion is always valid but your relentless posting is getting boring now and is bringing down the quality of this forum overall IMO. I don;t think this forum should be dominated by your personal agendas. And I think your post about the end-of-the-world doomsayer is highly ironic.
> 
> 
> Edit: even if Bitcoin is priced at 14,999 in 1 year and you win your bet, it means very little. Bitcoin is very volatile and the price could be almost anything on any given future date, that doesn't mean it's going to zero or to a million. In fact, given your statements, if Bitcoin is 14,999 in a year you would have been grossly in error overall even if you technically win that specific bet.


_Inigo _it was fairly clear that Brendan would have bet as much as PaddyPower would take.  He has also suggested shorting on IG.  I wouldn't be surprised if he had a very substantial short position on IG, but I wouldn't expect him to make that position public.

If bitcoin is priced at 14,999 in 1 year and Brendan wins his bet I am sure he will not be braggadocious about it.


----------



## Gordon Gekko

Inigo,

“I don’t believe that it’ll go to zero in 2018” is hardly grounds for optimism.

Bitcoin is a one way bet and will end up having negligible value; the only question is when.

Its limited supply is spurious and it’s attracting the ire of regulators. 

Relentlessness of posting is worthwhile because it is likely to stop fools from investing money that they do not have in this nonsense.

Gordon


----------



## Gordon Gekko

Inigo said:


> You are the one making definitive statements about it, not me. By all means put your money where your mouth is also.



Your post illustrates how little you understand the mechanics of investing. I believe that Bitcoin has negligible real value and that the price will ultimately reflect this. However, the timing of the chickens coming home to roost is uncertain. There may still be money to be made or there may not. Like Buffett, I’d probably buy 5 year put options if they existed, but as things stand I’m putting my money where my mouth is by avoiding cryptocurrencies completely and investing my spare cash in global equities.

As an aside, your post is also representative of the attitude of cryptocurrency zealots. 

“This time it’s different”; except it’s not.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

fauxblade said:


> It is strange for someone that is usually quite reserved and open to debate, having such a blindspot on this topic, especially when fpalb has been so patient and accurate with all of his responses to questions. There is not one question that has been thrown at him that hasn't had a reasonable response, especially the bit about what gives BTC its value.


I think _fpalb _will admit that there is a non-trivial chance that bitcoin will go as close to zero as makes no difference to anybody who is buying at these levels.
As for blindspots it is a syndrome displayed by almost every informed commentator on the subject including any Nobel prize winners who have chosen to make a comment.


----------



## fpalb

fauxblade said:


> It is strange for someone that is usually quite reserved and open to debate, having such a blindspot on this topic, especially when fpalb has been so patient and accurate with all of his responses to questions.



I'm patient because I understand the other side of it. I can speak factually about how bitcoin works, it's easy because it's open and therefore there is proof for that, but I can't prove that people will continue to find bitcoin valuable, I can't convince other people to find the value in decentralised money that I do, and I can't prove how much of the current market value is due to short term speculation that will disappear in a bear market. I can only try to explain why people are finding it valuable right now, and the rationale behind my own assumptions and actions.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> I agree that too much is made of this aspect.  Bitcoin is wasteful of electricity, it also seems to appeal to the criminal classes but to use either fact to demonise the hapless "currency" is a side show.  What I do think is worth repeating from the Guardian article is the following:
> This highlight the nonsense at the core of bitcoin.  Why the need for these quintillions of pointless arithmetic?  Not to ensure the integrity of the blockchain, that was achieved with a mere fraction of today's effort before.  No the reason for this immense artificial effort is because the protocol has built into it that only so many bitcoins can be created every 10 minutes.  That is so the target of 99% of the 21M max supply is reached by 2032.  If Satoshi knew what was happening today would happen she would have built in a failsafe which simply accelerated the timescale.



I've been thinking that maybe I didn't clearly explain a very important implication of the mining, It's not just to regulate the coin rewards and the transaction blocks, it's to ensure the immutability. This is really important. The blockchain history is for all intents and purposes absolute truth.

For example we can look at block 100: https://blockchain.info/block/000000007bc154e0fa7ea32218a72fe2c1bb9f86cf8c9ebf9a715ed27fdb229a

This was mined back in 2009 and only contains one transaction, the 50BTC block reward to address 13A1W4jLPP75pzvn2qJ5KyyqG3qPSpb9jM

We *know* beyond all reasonable doubt that this transaction happened as it says there at that time 9 years ago, we know that exact amount went to that exact address. We know this information has not been changed since. We know this because there have been over half million blocks solved since most of which have very high difficulty, and changing anything in block 100 would require re-mining those half a million blocks from scratch - basically re-doing all of the bitcoin mining effort that has been done since 2009 at a pace that catches up and overtakes the current blockchain growth.

This is a digital historic record which can be verified to be true by anyone who chooses to, no trust in anyone required. There is nothing that achieves this apart from blockchains.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> I think _fpalb _will admit that there is a non-trivial chance that bitcoin will go as close to zero as makes no difference to anybody who is buying at these levels.


I would like to further the discussion on the recent key post when I get time (hopefully at the weekend), and I'd be happy to add more about my thoughts on the threats and risks to bitcoin.


----------



## Firefly

fauxblade said:


> There is not one question that has been thrown at him that hasn't had a reasonable response, especially the bit about what gives BTC its value.



I don't recall any arguments put forward which can explain why Bitcoin should trade at circa $10,000 now when it traded at only $1,000 this time last year...


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

fpalb said:


> I've been thinking that maybe I didn't clearly explain a very important implication of the mining, It's not just to regulate the coin rewards and the transaction blocks, it's to ensure the immutability. This is really important. The blockchain history is for all intents and purposes absolute truth.


You explained it very clearly.  The point I was making was that requiring quintillions of pointless hash puzzles is way over the requirement to ensure immutability as is evidenced by the difficulty level of the earlier blocks.  It is not the need to ensure immutability that is driving the mining effort to these absurd levels but the 10 minute requirement built into the protocol.  Unless we have a blind faith that Satoshi has got everything right my guess is that if she had the benefit of hindsight she would have done some things differently, wouldn't we all,  and one of the things she would have done differently is to let the time line be more flexible.  Does it really matter if we achieve 99% supply by 2020 instead of 2032?


----------



## fpalb

Duke of Marmalade said:


> You explained it very clearly.  The point I was making was that requiring quintillions of pointless hash puzzles is way over the requirement to ensure immutability as is evidenced by the difficulty level of the earlier blocks.  It is not the need to ensure immutability that is driving the mining effort to these absurd levels but the 10 minute requirement built into the protocol.  Unless we have a blind faith that Satoshi has got everything right my guess is that if she had the benefit of hindsight she would have done some things differently, wouldn't we all,  and one of the things she would have done differently is to let the time line be more flexible.  Does it really matter if we achieve 99% supply by 2020 instead of 2032?


It's a good point that in hindsight some of the parameters may have been different, it's certainly interesting to consider, but observations of how bitcoin has worked in practice and experiments with alt-coins using different mining specifications showed that bitcoin's algorithm is actually pretty damn good in general. If you change the parameters you risk messing up the game theory or security. For example if the coin release schedule had not been regulated to be as slow as it has been, and for example 99% of coins had been mined within say the first 3 years, there's a good chance bitcoin mining would have collapsed completely as the reward for miners to continue would have dropped to too small an amount of bitcoin too quickly. 

In reality, this week we've just reached the point where 80% of all bitcoins are now mined, this is where you would start worrying that the reward will in the coming years become too small for mining to continue BUT we also this year reached a transaction level where the fees from transactions for the first time became a significant reward to replace the mining rewards. By smarts or luck Satoshi made a pretty good estimate of a schedule that had a chance to work.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> My understanding (and I may understand nothing) is that at these price levels mining becomes very lucrative and so the competition amongst miners increases dramatically.  To make sure only 12.5 BTC are created every 10 minutes the code adjusts the difficulty level based on how quickly the puzzles have recently been solved.  The level of difficulty these days is then driven by competition to be the winner in each 10 minute lottery and is far in excess of the level of difficulty adequate to secure integrity/immutability.



Your explanation is correct, but I'll add that the amount of security 'required' is always a bit fuzzy BUT it's important to consider that it increases as the value of bitcoin increases. When block 100 was mined in 2009, the mining difficulty was low, only a few people were mining with their home PCs if all of us AAMers on this thread got together we could have perhaps re-mined every block at that point but bitcoin had no market value then and nobody cared about it, so the little security it had was sufficient for the little value it had. It makes sense that as bitcoin increases in value, and the incentive for mining increases that the security needs of the system also increase.



fauxblade said:


> fpalb can correct me if wrong, but the two points (immutability & difficulty level) are different.
> It's more accurate to say, that the quicker it is taking to mine a bitcoin, which is driven by the number of machines mining, the more complex the calculation becomes in order to try to keep it as close to a block validated every ten minutes.
> 
> His point on the immutability was that in order to change a block written back years ago, you'd have to change that block, mine that block, and re-mine every single block to date to overwrite an old transaction. It is virtually impossible.


Your explanation is also correct.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Firefly said:


> I don't recall any arguments put forward which can explain why Bitcoin should trade at circa $10,000 now when it traded at only $1,000 this time last year...


_Firefly_, _fpalb _has put forward the arguments to explain the price change, and they seem perfectly reasonable to me, being based on an analysis of supply and demand which is the arbiter of price.  Everything that happens in this world has an explanation.  However, I think you really meant to ask how can you *justify *the increase in price from $1,000 to $10,000.  In pondering this I keep coming up against a basic problem of mine, the relevance of the unit.  So I prefer to put the question as follows:  how can it be justified that the total value (price) of bitcoin in the world increased from $16bn to $160bn?   Of course since I cannot see any justification for the opening value, _a fortiori _(that's for Dan) I can see none for the 1,000% increase.


----------



## cremeegg

Fella said:


> even if we know Bitcoin will crash you can’t predict when



Of course you can.

Bubbles go through stages.

See diagram, click on title, and decide which stage Bitcoin is in now.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

fpalb said:


> I completely agree with considering the 'market cap' value instead of the arbitrary unit price. I don't know how to differentiate between an explanation and a justification, how do you define it? is it in terms of whether the explanation is sustainable and likely to continue?


I suppose so.  BTW I am not having a go at you.  I suppose the point is best illustrated by example.  The price of tulips went stratospheric due to a speculative frenzy, but it was not justified on any fundamental basis.  The price of Apple shares has also had a spectacular trajectory.  The earning prospects for the Apple company possibly justify that price performance.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Inigo said:


> And how would they do that?


_TheBigShort _has posed a similar question.  I am talking about a situation were bitcoin is  actually growing up as a currency.  A typical indicator might be Dunnes Stores pricing in both euro and bitcoin and genuinley accepting bitcoin and not merely facilitating intermediaries who convert from bitcoin to euro.  An even bigger indicator would be a major retailer pricing in bitcoin only.  Now people would actually need bitcoin to satisfy a want for a good or service  as with any other currency.

Central banks would step in long before that, simply by banning retailers accepting bitcoin.  That would absolutely kill it as a viable currency.

But possibly you are pursuing your favourite "zero non tolerance" policy.  So before you do let me assure you that I accept that the authorities will never be able to banish bitcoin completely.  It will always be possible for diehards to trade bitcoins through exchanges in the Cayman Islands etc.  But presuming current speculation is based on the prospects of bitcoin becoming a genuine currency that speculation would also be killed off.


----------



## fpalb

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I suppose so.  BTW I am not having a go at you.  I suppose the point is best illustrated by example.  The price of tulips went stratospheric due to a speculative frenzy, but it was not justified on any fundamental basis.


I understand your question. regarding tulips there were perhaps some more concrete reasons why it would end, not least of all that tulips can be grown in basically endless supply to meet demand and flood the market over a long enough time frame.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> The price of Apple shares has also had a spectacular trajectory.  The earning prospects for the Apple company possibly justify that price performance.


Funny you mentioned Apple, as I also considered mentioning it in my original reply. I've never owned an iphone, in my opinion you have been able to get an Android phone that is both better and significantly cheaper for years now. To me personally the price of iphones is not justified, but I do not necessarily think that is unsustainable as other people value them more than I do , even if that is for what I consider to be illogical reasons. Apple is very profitable, and may continue to be, and I do own Apple shares.


----------



## jman0war

Bitcoin is like a victim of it's own success.
People in the space have long known it's not ready for 'prime time' due to scaling challenges.
The community has been talking, planning and coding scaling solutions since 2013.

The people driving bitcoin into the mainstream are aware of this, or should be aware of this; nevertheless keep pushing for things like bitcoin ETFs and push adoption.
Nobody is at truly the helm of Bitcoin, it's not like Ethereum or LiteCoin where there is a "benevolent dictator" that drive the direction, push marketing or can put the brakes on this or that.

Market forces should spur development in areas that value it.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Betfair has released a raft of new crytobets 






These are odds on it falling below these prices at any stage. 

"Will Bitcoin drop below $1,000 in 2018? This will be settled using coinmarketcap.com based on the USD"

So if it drops below $1,000 and rises again above that level by the end of the year, the backer still wins. I presume that they will win and be paid the day it falls below $1,000. 

Brendan


----------



## MrEarl

Hello Mr. Burgess,

While I came in here wondering if Paddy Power might pay out early on your original bet, you've now caught my attention with these offerings from Betfair.

Personally, I don't see Bitcoin falling below €1,000 at any stage this year.  While I don't dispute the very high volatility, or the risk of panic setting in some day and Bitcoin's price dropping a few thousand euro in value (even more than we've seen in recent times), I have a feeling that it would be supported if it went anywhere near €1k in 2018 (if we were talking 2-3 years time, that may well be a different story though, as I believe that Bitcoin is going to get left behind by other cryptos over the next couple of years).  

The €5k bet is an entirely different matter however and perhaps worth consideration (I know this comment illustrates that I've lost some confidence in Bitcoin, since I posted in the prediction thread a while back btw)

Will you be putting money with Betfair and if so, on one or both of the above bets?


----------



## Negotiator

This is gonna be a very interesting thread to pop back to at the end of the year!


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Brendan Burgess said:


> I backed it yesterday when the odds were 7/5
> 
> 
> 
> Unfortunately, the maximum bet was only €145. Still it's like free money, although you have to wait a year for it.



I haven't looked at my Paddy Power account since this bet. 

I am astonished that the account shows only the last 90 days.  To go back longer I have to specially request it.

The bet is not settled yet. I had assumed it would have been done automatically at midnight, but apparently I have to wait until the traders approve it. 

Brendan


----------



## Brendan Burgess

I got my statement, and had completely forgotten that I had got odds of 7/1 on Bitcoin being lower than $5,000 today. It's like finding a tenner on the foot path or in the pocket of an old suit. 

I do remember now seeing those odds and lodging €1,000 urgently only to find the maximum bet was €30.  I was disgusted and took out the balance shortly afterwards when I realised that they were not going to give those odds again.

Brendan


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

Brendan Burgess said:


> It's like finding a tenner on the foot path...


Not quite the same _Boss_.  I presume you would hand the tenner into your local Garda station
Thanks for the PaddyPower tip off.  I also availed of the max available on your advice just as I also shorted BTC on IG to make £1,500 which is life changing for  humble duke.  PP closed the offer down so fast that I think they lost track of the bets - I had to phone them to secure my £300 winnings


----------



## domainer222

Is there any other bookies offering this sport of market I wonder?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

No, but if you find one, let me know as soon as possible. 

You can bet on betfair, but the odds are not attractive 




Disclosure:  I placed a small bet on the 2019 year end price a few days ago when the odds were a bit better. 

Brendan


----------

