# Mark Shipman's Investment course



## tonster01

Just wondering would this be worth it weight in gold (excuse the pun)

http://trend-follower.com/index.php...36&PHPSESSID=39746fb968978f3d08fdcaee70b79152

I have read his book but to be honest 550 pounds is quite expensive!!

Your thoughts....?


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## MichaelDes

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*

My advice is that a couple of good financial reads would give you the same level as what is being provided. Investment is like betting it is knowing when to buy and when to sell - that instinct can not be taught. Hedge fund managers of late have not being the best, if leading by example.


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## gonk

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*

£550 equates to roughly €800 at current rates. All you'd need is one good investment idea to make the cost back. Of course, the question is, could you have got the same idea elsewhere cheaper or for free?

For what it's worth, €800 would not be especially expensive for a one day training course in my field of IT - whether it's good value depends on the quality of the course. It's also worth noting that the price includes 1 year's e-mail contact with Shipman, which presumably you can use to get advice on your specific investment ideas.

I read the book too and found it refreshingly free of jargon or "get rich quick" nonsense, with a lot of useful information. I applied one of Shipman's rules of thumb on how to decide to exit an investment earlier this year and figure I saved myself about €10k in the subsequent fall in value. That's about a 50,000% return on my investment in the price of the book!

I am strongly considering attending the course myself - I guess I can consider the saving I made has already more than paid the course fee.

Usual disclaimer applies - I don't know Mark Shipman and have no connection with him.


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## tonster01

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*

Very true..re: one good idea...I am thinking strongly about it considering he is the reason I am looking more into investing in the first place....

Thats why I think it may be different than the others is the fact that he steers clear from get rich quick etc....but then again...that could just be his sales pitch...

Never know...might see you there...(if its the Dublin one!)


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## tonster01

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*

Would love if some of you more experienced in trading would cast your knoweldge onto this as I am seriously considering paying out for this...

Can it be better than the others simply due to Marks sucess as an investor or would i be as well to keep reading the books?


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## hattrick_12a

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*

I was thinking of doing *Diploma in Stockbroking Investment*
offered by *Dublin Business School at 1350euro. 

This looks like better value to me. 1 day just seems too short to me and I would also question the quality of *
*12-month unlimited private access e-mail to Mark Shipman*

as it is sometimes difficult to explain a point, I find over this medium.  Looking at  what he is going to cover  Iwould say that once you have the book read, I would be surprised if you learnt anything new. 

Having said that I am reading his book which is good. Just my thoughts. But do let us know how yous get on with it if you go with it. Best of luck.


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## dunkamania

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*

The DIT diploma is probably more suitable for most people,but I doubt if anything taught there cant be learned from a few good books, and some regular internet based research.1350 or 800 is alot of money,and I wouldnt expect most participants to earn that much extra back from what they have learned


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## tonster01

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*



hattrick_12a said:


> I was thinking of doing *Diploma in Stockbroking Investment*
> offered by *Dublin Business School at 1350euro. *



I rang up today for info on this...it starts this Thursday and is fully booked however it does have a waiting list ...


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## chicote

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*

Only attend if you are serious about investing,  I reckon shipman's would be the best seminar to attend. Read the book too, the only fault I have with his book is that he spends no time at all on Spread betting which is the medium that he uses to trade, which is why I am now reading 'The Financial Spread Betting Handbook' by Malcolm Pryor, highly recommend this book, author is from the UK and like Shipman, its all stratight forward, no get rich quick crap. I think anyone thinking of attending Shipmans course should read this book first! 

thats my 2 cents worth anyway


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## gonk

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*



chicote said:


> the only fault I have with his book is that he spends no time at all on Spread betting which is the medium that he uses to trade, which is why I am now reading 'The Financial Spread Betting Handbook' by Malcolm Pryor, highly recommend this book, author is from the UK and like Shipman, its all stratight forward, no get rich quick crap. I think anyone thinking of attending Shipmans course should read this book first!


 
This is a very valid criticism and something I would want to see addressed in the seminar if I attended. Shipman is very keen on spread betting for its tax advantages, but doesn't deal with its mechanics at all. For example, to open a spread bet position, you need to set a stop. Shipman is silent on how to decide where to set these. Also, while his methods are all about following trends, he doesn't address the possibility of using short positions to follow downward price trends, even though spread betting is one of the most accessible ways for ordinary investors to go short.


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## Nemesis

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*



gonk said:


> Also, while his methods are all about following trends, he doesn't address the possibility of using short positions to follow downward price trends, even though spread betting is one of the most accessible ways for ordinary investors to go short.



I don't think shorting is his thing at all though. He describes himself as a long-term investor and doesn't consider what he does trading (although from what I can see most of his ideas and inspiration come from that field). It looks like his focus is exclusively on exploiting bull markets. Interesting quote from Philip Richards in [broken link removed] I stumbled upon a few weeks ago.



> Years ago, somebody said to me that it is possible to make a living out of short selling, but you’ll only ever make a fortune out of being long in a bull market. That was worth remembering, and it has been true for us. In 2000 and 2001 we made a living out of being short during difficult times, but by definition you can never make a fortune out of it because you can’t get the multiplication that you get from the long side. But if you invest in the long position, you can multiply your money many times over.



Perhaps this is Shipman's thinking on it as well?


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## gonk

*Re: Mark Shipmans Investment course*



Nemesis said:


> I don't think shorting is his thing at all though. He describes himself as a long-term investor and doesn't consider what he does trading


 
Maybe so, but shorting isn't necessarily short term trading. For example there was a long term downward trend in the FTSE 100 for the four years beginning Jan 2000. It's only now back around the level it reached at its Dec 1999 peak.

Even if Shipman isn't into shorting, one might expect him to cover the topic and explain why. However, he just doesn't mention it at all.


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## Nemesis

It seems to me the book is about his particular method and not a general overview detailing many different investment strategies. Don't know if the workshops will have a similar approach though. Perhaps he does address shorting. One would really need to hear the report of someone who's attended to be sure. But if it's not something he's into then you probably wouldn't expect to see it in the list of topics covered here.


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## chicote

While we are on the subject of spread betting - does anybody think it would be a good idea to form a small group of spread betting investors to meet, say once per week? an investment club if you like? just a thought and maybe a crazy idea, but there is power and accountability in numbers which is very important for minnows such as us starting out on the road to spread betting success, reply if u may be interested.

If 4 or 5 people were to club together and we all use the same strategy, then we should be coming up with the same instruments to bet on.


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## Bassman

Hi,

I'd be on for that if you're still interested......

Julian



chicote said:


> While we are on the subject of spread betting - does anybody think it would be a good idea to form a small group of spread betting investors to meet, say once per week? an investment club if you like? just a thought and maybe a crazy idea, but there is power and accountability in numbers which is very important for minnows such as us starting out on the road to spread betting success, reply if u may be interested.
> 
> If 4 or 5 people were to club together and we all use the same strategy, then we should be coming up with the same instruments to bet on.


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## croker

I would be a bit sceptical from the point of view that what he is teaching is not how he made his money.
If you remember when he was on the late late show talking about a number of people with computers running all day in his house it doesnt match the view of a long term investor. 
I think he made his millions trading one way and is now just giving basic investment advice that you can find anywhere on the back of his reputation.(which isnt necesarily a bad thing if the advice is good)


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## tonster01

So did anyone sign up for this in the end?


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## joe sod

i saw him on late late and read his book, however his stategy of investing in commodities futures is not something i am comfortable with, he says this in the book that you must 100% follow his stategy and believe in it. Therefore if you are having doubts you should probably stay clear, if you believe in his strategy and that it will work then £500 is not that much. I was very impressed with his analysis but am more comfortable investing in the commodity producers rather than in futures, or spread betting.


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## z106

The dublin one is sold out at the moment.
I'm heading over to the london one though on march 8.

I have read his book and i'd be very surprised if he taught anything else new - but i'm gonna go anyway.(Go figure !)

He has a site www.trend-follower.com.

Up until 24th dec 07 he used post up all his weekly positions for free of charge.
However - this has since been suspended until it gets further approval from the regulatory.

FOr the last 2 months i decided to literally copy all his positions and do nothing else.

It's worked so far - made a nice few thousand.
That said - i'm fully aware that 2 months isn't nearly enough of a time span to draw any conclusions.

However - due to my profits made i'm thinking i'll give the guy back some of it !!


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## tonster01

qwertyuiop said:


> Up until 24th dec 07 he used post up all his weekly positions for free of charge.
> However - this has since been suspended until it gets further approval from the regulatory.
> 
> FOr the last 2 months i decided to literally copy all his positions and do nothing else.
> 
> It's worked so far - made a nice few thousand.
> That said - i'm fully aware that 2 months isn't nearly enough of a time span to draw any conclusions.



What medium did you use to bet/invest in his choices..I cannot find anywhere to invest in the nifty fifty index for india?

Also, all future and past attendees can still avail of his current positions by e-mailing Mark his website states.


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## z106

sorry - i only invested in ones that are available on the spreadbetting company [broken link removed].

The nifty isn't on them as you say.


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## tonster01

Ok thats great thanks...did you read the finacial spread betting handbook before hand?(unless you had previous s.b knowledge)


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## z106

No - I didn't read it before hand.

I had an idea of it anyay though from sports spreadbetting.

Also- the spreadbetting companies give plenty of info on their sites about it.

You cn also avail of  free one-to-one session if you are prepared to dop into their office.


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## daves

I have been interested in spread betting for a while but only use simulator accounts. What is the standard input that is required to get an account up and running?

Read shipmans book and its a pretty good read. Again the thought of "gambling" is putting me off slightly.


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## z106

daves said:


> I have been interested in spread betting for a while but only use simulator accounts. What is the standard input that is required to get an account up and running?
> 
> Read shipmans book and its a pretty good read. Again the thought of "gambling" is putting me off slightly.


 
WIth delta index you eed to put in a minimum of €1,000.

WIth wotrldspreads there is no minimum.
ALso with worldspreads the spreads are tighter - and also with worldspreads they will refund you losses of up to €750 after 8 weeks of trading  - something deltaindex don't do.

SO for my money worldspreads is a no-brainer in teh irish market.

Also - spreadbetting is not gambling.


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## reset5

Tonster,
The india nifty fifty is on IG index.
Ger


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## tonster01

Thanks for that Ger!


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## z106

For anyone who has read shipmas book out there.

WHat do u make of his technical trading strategy?

I like his buy signal.

Now - far be it from me to criticise anything he does but his exit strategy to me seems a little too insensitive to downward movements.

Does anyone else think this?

I've back tested it wiuth a few dozen stocks (Not exactly exhaustive i know !!) - but he seems to lose an awful lot of his gains by exiting when the price dips below the 40 week sma.
Like - a 40 week sma takes a long time to react.

Any opinions anyone?

On my brief testing i figured exiting when the price is below the 20 week sma seemed more effective.


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## bankrupt

He admits as much himself qwertyuiop, while his buy signal seems to work well, he does say that judging when to exit is far more problematic, he does list several other exit criteria too however.


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## z106

bankrupt said:


> He admits as much himself qwertyuiop, while his buy signal seems to work well, he does say that judging when to exit is far more problematic, he does list several other exit criteria too however.


 
I thought that seemed to be his main rule of thumb though no?

I do remember him mentioning that if you get ridiculous gains out of the blue then just take ytour gains and run.

I don't remember off-hand what other exit signals he had.

WHat were they again?

I managed to sneak into a cancellation place at his january 27 dublin seminar yesterday due to a cancellation.

I'll report back on my experience.


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## joe sod

You have to remember with these sort of techniques is that they only work when few people use them, therefore the few can take advantage of the quirks in the market like mark shipman himself, however when many people start using them, which will now be the case,  they will start moving the market  by the sheer  volume of trades  trading in the same direction  according to his signals.  I agree  with shipmans analysis of the overall trend in commodities  but  not  in  using his  techniques


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## ClubMan

EMH.


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## z106

joe sod said:


> You have to remember with these sort of techniques is that they only work when few people use them, therefore the few can take advantage of the quirks in the market like mark shipman himself, however when many people start using them, which will now be the case, they will start moving the market by the sheer volume of trades trading in the same direction according to his signals. I agree with shipmans analysis of the overall trend in commodities but not in using his techniques


 
I'm not sure i'd go along with that.
I think the opposite could be argued in fact.
You could call technical analysis a self fulfilling prophecy.
i.e.e if everyone all buys at the same signal it will just up the demand which will up the trend even further.

ANd even if what you are saying is correct I doubt very much that a few dozen small time investors will have much impact on the overall market.

Out of curiosity - why don't you like his techniques by the way?


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## daves

qwertyuiop said:


> I thought that seemed to be his main rule of thumb though no?
> 
> I do remember him mentioning that if you get ridiculous gains out of the blue then just take ytour gains and run.
> 
> I don't remember off-hand what other exit signals he had.
> 
> WHat were they again?
> 
> I managed to sneak into a cancellation place at his january 27 dublin seminar yesterday due to a cancellation.
> 
> I'll report back on my experience.



You'll have to share the knowledge! Let us know if he makes any interesting revelations.


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## ccraig

Could you give a quick intro into how he qualified his buy signal?


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## z106

Firstky he only he ever looks at end of  week closing prices.

He claims the only couple of hours of studying charts is done at the w/e.

If an end of weeks closing price is higher than all of the last 12 end of weeks closing prices and that closing price is higher than the 40 week moving average and the 40 week moving average is ascending then he buys.


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## ccraig

That data sounds very simple to graph to study the theory based on iseq shares for example. Is there a website that graphs this showing these trends?


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## z106

ya - go onto yahoo finance - you can put it any moving avrages you ant.

I think you can only do days on yahoo though.

So the 40 week average would correspond to the 200 day average.

According to shipman he reckons stich to teh weekly charts thouh - i reckon they're probably similar though - not identical though.


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## smiley

""So the 40 week average would correspond to the 200 day average.""

that moving average is not quite the same thing as mark does...

you dont even need to chart the closing moving averages...just enter in excel every weekend...and do an average of the previous 40 weeks friday closing price...very very simple to do.

what you refer to above , where everybody does the same thing, is known as a 'self-fulfilling prophecy'........john murphy writes about this in his famous book about technical analysis, and argues that it doesnt really happen, as people, just wont all do the same thing....human nature will cause them to change their strategies etc....


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## croker

> what you refer to above , where everybody does the same thing, is known as a 'self-fulfilling prophecy'........john murphy writes about this in his famous book about technical analysis, and argues that it doesnt really happen, as people, just wont all do the same thing....human nature will cause them to change their strategies etc....


I havent read that book but I think the point about these areas being significant is that large numbers of buy and sell order are placed there especially by institutions and when the price is triggered the move is exacerbated by the demand.


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## Zoran

Spread betting is the zero sum game as based on futures that is the derivative vehicle.

Small number of people are making huge money in derivatives meaning that a lot of people needs to loose money on the other side.
Are you better then these pros or lucky people?

The trading strategy needs to have the entry, exit and money management elements. I did not find it all in Shipman's book.

Somebody mentioned that he followed his recommendations from his trend following site.
Would you tell me did you earn money on crude oil? How?
E.g. leverage for crude oil is x36. Loss of around 3% is 100% down.
Volatility of crude oil is on many days like that.
Were you lucky to pick the good day to start with?

What with the NASDAQ (one of the last picks) till the whole link suddenly disappeared from the site? 
Why most of the picks are nothing to do with commodities if they are the next boom?

I am just not believer too much as I have never seen any numbers or statistics. Also if they are smart they will be on the richest list.

Again, zero sum game. How anybody can suggest such thing as the main investment vehicle?


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## z106

Zoran said:


> The trading strategy needs to have the entry, exit and money management elements. I did not find it all in Shipman's book.
> 
> Somebody mentioned that he followed his recommendations from his trend following site.
> Would you tell me did you earn money on crude oil? How?
> E.g. leverage for crude oil is x36. Loss of around 3% is 100% down.
> Volatility of crude oil is on many days like that.
> Were you lucky to pick the good day to start with?
> 
> What with the NASDAQ (one of the last picks) till the whole link suddenly disappeared from the site?
> Why most of the picks are nothing to do with commodities if they are the next boom?


 
It was me that mentioned i started following the picks from his web site.
FIrstly - just to clarify - i didn't enter all the positions.
I decided to spread my money over 3 positions rather than spread less of it over more positions.
Through random choice oil was not one of the ones I chose.

So - to clear up your confusion re leveraging.
Yes - with crude you can gear up 30-fold. What that means is that the max you can gear up is 30 fold - it doesn't mean you have to gear up 30 fold.
You can ecide with whatever level of leverage you are comfortable with yourself.
With spreadbetting you don't have to gear up at all in fact - it merey facilitates this option should you desire.

How it works is this - lets ay you have no positions open - you want to open up a position that allows you gear up 10 fold. 
i.e. you put in lets say €1,000 - but in effect you have the same exposure as a guy who has €10k worth. 
However - lets also say that you only want to be leveraged 2 fold.
i.e. You want the exposure of €10k but you want to use your own money for half of it.

WHat you would do is this:
1) Put in €1000 which gives you the exposure of 10k
2)Add in another €4k yourself into your account.

That way - the price could drop 50% before you would have a margin call
i.e. A margin call is when the company gets back to you and says you need to put more money in to keep the position open.
If you don't putthe moneyon they wll close your position.

Alternatively if you wanted to allow say, a 30% drop before margin call u could put in €2k instead of teh €4k.
Or alternatively if you wanted to avoid margin calls altogether you could add in €9k yoursel.

SO you control the leverage aspect - howver the company will dictate top you what the max leverage is - in oils case 30 fold.

ANd as for your first point above about shipman not having entry and exit signals and advice on money management.

he in fact goes into detail on all 3.
Take another read of the book.
I won't go into exactly what he said as it in the book and would take too many words for me to type but briefly it's along the lines of enter whne price anove the 40 week sma - exit when below the 40 week sma - and as for money management never gear up more than double.

Read the book again to find out in detail what he said.

And as for the NASDAQ - yes - he would have lost money there.
But going by his exit signal in the book he is definitely out of that position by now.
Trend following isn't about winning them all - it's more about limiting your losses and winning big on your gains in the hope that the overall gains will outweigh the losses.

And lastly - you mention how not many of his picks are anything to do with commodities.
You are right - (although i suspect that has changed in the last fortnight.)

Th ereason is as follows.
He doesn't enetr any position unless it satisfies his entry criteria as outlined in the book.
The point he is making about commodities is that he expects these to satisfy these criteria in the future - and he suspects that he will be involved in many of them over the next decade.

However - until they satisfy his technical criteria he will not enter those positions.

He doesn't trade on fundamental analysis buy soley technical analysis.

If and when they do he will then enter those positions also.

It was merely just an opinion of the future based on fundamental analysis - but as i say - it's all about technical analysis with him.


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## Zoran

>It was me that mentioned i started following the picks from his web site.
>FIrstly - just to clarify - i didn't enter all the positions.
>I decided to spread my money over 3 positions rather than spread less of >it over more positions.
>Through random choice oil was not one of the ones I chose.

I will believe you if you show me that.

What 3 positions? When did you enter and when did you exit (if at all)?
What is the profit/loss on all 3 of them?
If you exited did you continue buying new things?
How you will do that when his link on picks disappeared?

Where is his link now? Why is gone?
The picks from the link did not have in what percentages or real money they are entered and when are they exited and so on.

>WHat you would do is this:
>1) Put in €1000 which gives you the exposure of 10k
>20Add in another €4k yourself into your account.

Did you do it this way. To artificially make 2x leverage?

>ANd as for your first point above about shipman not having entry and exit >signals and advice on money management.
 >he in fact goes into detail on all 3.
>Take another read of the book.

Just tell me his exit strategy that you followed in your 3 picks from above?

>and as for money management never gear up more than double.

That is not the money management strategy at all.
What percentage of the overall money you will invest in any one position?
How much loss you will bear over time on 1 position and on all positions?

I assume you have read at least 1 book on trading and futures to understand what is that all about?

>And as for the NASDAQ - yes - he would have lost money there.
>But going by his exit signal in the book he is definitely out of that position by now.

Are you overall good from the time you started investing this way?
What is your percentage profit?


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## z106

Zoran said:


> >It was me that mentioned i started following the picks from his web site.
> >FIrstly - just to clarify - i didn't enter all the positions.
> >I decided to spread my money over 3 positions rather than spread less of >it over more positions.
> >Through random choice oil was not one of the ones I chose.
> 
> I will believe you if you show me that.
> 
> What 3 positions? When did you enter and when did you exit (if at all)?
> What is the profit/loss on all 3 of them?
> If you exited did you continue buying new things?
> How you will do that when his link on picks disappeared?
> 
> Where is his link now? Why is gone?
> The picks from the link did not have in what percentages or real money they are entered and when are they exited and so on.
> 
> >WHat you would do is this:
> >1) Put in €1000 which gives you the exposure of 10k
> >20Add in another €4k yourself into your account.
> 
> Did you do it this way. To artificially make 2x leverage?
> 
> >ANd as for your first point above about shipman not having entry and exit >signals and advice on money management.
> >he in fact goes into detail on all 3.
> >Take another read of the book.
> 
> Just tell me his exit strategy that you followed in your 3 picks from above?
> 
> >and as for money management never gear up more than double.
> 
> That is not the money management strategy at all.
> What percentage of the overall money you will invest in any one position?
> How much loss you will bear over time on 1 position and on all positions?
> 
> I assume you have read at least 1 book on trading and futures to understand what is that all about?
> 
> >And as for the NASDAQ - yes - he would have lost money there.
> >But going by his exit signal in the book he is definitely out of that position by now.
> 
> Are you overall good from the time you started investing this way?
> What is your percentage profit?


 
Ok - your first point - you say you will believe me if i show you that.
WHat's that about ? Do you think I'm lying - why would i lie about that.It's an annonymous forum.

Your second point - what position sand when did I eneter?
I entered gold end of november.
I eneterd sugar when he did - late december I think.
I entered corn the beginning of january.

I am still in all 3 positions and will exit when the sell signal as outlined in his book is triggered.

Having his new picks there is definitely convenient - but it is bot necessary. He explains his buy signal in the book - so just analyse weekly charts to see what fulfills his buy criteria.
FOr example - presumably he has entered copper wheat and soyebeans recently guven that they all reached all time highs (At least i think they all did anyway)

Your 3rd question - where is the link now? WHy is it gone ?
There was a note on his page a few days ago (which has since been taken down) saying he is unable to continue with his current open positions as he is awaiting approval to continue to do so from the regulatory. Make what you want of that. That's his line anyway.

Your 4th point - you say it doesn't say when he exited his positions on his website.
I seriously reckon you don't read at all. It's there in black and white when he leaves a position
i.e.e If it's there on eweek and gone the next then obviously he has exited that position.
As for the exit signal - read the bookj again - it's also there in black and white.It woiuld take too lon for me to type it out here.
There are a few aspects to it.

As for what % he puts in each position I'm asuming they are equal - I'm making that assumption because positions are entered due to technical reasons - nbot fundamental reasons. Although personally i wouldn't be surprised if he invests a larger % in commodities in the future given that he feels so strongly about them.

And giving advice on leverage is definitely money management in my book.
KNowing how much you can gear up is a significant part of the battle.
If ytou get that wrong you can be wiped out before you know it.

ANd yes - i have read a couple of other books - just glanced through them really.
His was the first one i really properly studied.

Basically i riskily decided to gear up 10 fold.
I accept that is too high to the point of being a big gamble.

You aske about my own success so far?
I had the exposure of €120k worth - am up a paper profit €7.5k for the last 2 months - tax free given it's spreadbeting.

I plan to not eter any more position until either i go bust or else until my position grows until i have 25% of the exposure in the account myself - whichever comes first !!

I reckon with the exit strategy used,25% is safe enough.


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## Zoran

>WHat's that about ? Do you think I'm lying - why would i lie about that.It's an annonymous forum.

I am not saying you are lying, but it is much easier to put some numbers and dates so we can see and learn.

>As for what % he puts in each position I'm asuming they are equal - I'm >making that assumption because positions are entered due to technical >reasons - nbot fundamental reasons. Although personally i wouldn't be >surprised if he invests a larger % in commodities in the future given that he >feels so strongly about them.

It looks you picked only winners in your portfolio somehow.
What happened to nifty-fifty, NASDAQ, swiss index, DAX, ...
Why you did not follow these recommendations?
I assume you considered yourself very lucky.

So, you believe in the simple trading strategy based on 3 random picks?

You entered position due to the technical reason but the whole book is about why commodities are good from the fundamental perspective.
If he is so strong about fundamentals why would you think about technicalities at all and think exiting position every week?

If I know soy bean will go up a lot I will just buy it and keep it for years, is not it?
This is especially true if you removed the leverage so who cares if it goes a bit down.

>As for the exit signal - read the bookj again - it's also there in black and white.

I did it again. It is on a couple of pages very descriptive.
So which method out of 4 you are going to use?

I assume you never exited the position so you will learn about it on fly.
While skipping through the book again it is 150 pages of which a lot of is explaining what is soy bean, coffee and so on.
He puts some basics (moving averages) of technical trading and proposes spread betting to try to beat pros in zero-sum game.
It is really very promissing.

>It woiuld take too lon for me to type it out here. There are a few aspects to it.

You should have the trading plan written down with all aspects of it.
Getting into the trading without having the trading plan can be very costly.
That means exit strategy should be very clear and concise, not descriptive as in the book.
Just for people who does not have the book I will put down Method 3:

"If a market rallies exponentially. liquidate following the first big reaction in prices"

Even reading the text with the picture after it I am not seeing this method as exact. 
Do you really know how to follow method 3 out of 4 methods?
Which method will be your method on gold, corn and sugar?

>And giving advice on leverage is definitely money management in my book.
>KNowing how much you can gear up is a significant part of the battle.
>If ytou get that wrong you can be wiped out before you know it.
>Basically i riskily decided to gear up 10 fold.
>I accept that is too high to the point of being a big gamble.

First few sentences and the last few are totally opposite.
So, your advise is that you can win in spread betting even you will take a bit of gamble and leverage it 10x.

>I had the exposure of €120k worth - am up a paper profit €7.5k for the last 2 months - tax free given it's spreadbeting.

With gearing 10x that means you have 10k in the account so you are 75% in profit?
That is a pretty good profit in 40 or so days.

I assume you are now believer as you were lucky to pick 2 winners from all his picks assuming that the last pick is purely yours.

I congratulate you on this but we just need to be honest how huge risk you have taken with 3 positions and 10x leverage.


----------



## tonster01

So did anyone attend this today?

If so, how was it?


----------



## z106

tonster01 said:


> So did anyone attend this today?
> 
> If so, how was it?


 
i'm going tomorrow


----------



## z106

I was at the course today.

Very good.

He basially just reinforced what was in the book - along with giving more exit strategies.

HE claims he averages a 15% return per annum using his system.

He compares this to buffets return of 21%.


----------



## joe sod

qwertyuiop said:


> I was at the course today.
> 
> Very good.
> 
> He basially just reinforced what was in the book - along with giving more exit strategies.
> 
> HE claims he averages a 15% return per annum using his system.
> 
> He compares this to buffets return of 21%.


 
   Would it not be better and alot safer then to focus on buffet rather than shipman, simply buy the companies that buffet buys which are in the public domain and sell the companies that buffet sells, you don't have to attend any courses or use entry and exit signals


----------



## z106

joe sod said:


> Would it not be better and alot safer then to focus on buffet rather than shipman, simply buy the companies that buffet buys which are in the public domain and sell the companies that buffet sells, you don't have to attend any courses or use entry and exit signals


 
That's a fair point i.e. literally shadow buffet.

If you're copying buffets every move then it would be reasonable to expect to win big given his past performance.

There is 1 reason why I wouldn't do it though.
I stand to be corrected on this - but firstly how easy is it to do that in a leveraged position?
Is it possible?
I'm assuming it's not.


For me - leverage is the key to making money - yes it increases risk - but personally i think it's esential.

Also - in practice - how easy is it to find out what buffet does exactly?
Like- presumably that information isn't posted anywhere on a weekly site or something?
How can you guarantee that you get in and out when he does ?

I'm guessing here - but,given his reputation, if that kind of info was in the public domain would it not have an increased effect on the stock price immediately?
By the time the lay man gets in would the price have moved up from buffets entry point?


----------



## markowitzman

> That's a fair point i.e. literally shadow buffet.


would buying the hathaway shares not be simpler?


----------



## z106

markowitzman said:


> would buying the hathaway shares not be simpler?


 
Ok - I'm not well informed about buffet other than a few basic things.

Is the hathaway his investment company?

As in n - when people say buffet averages 21% per annum - do they mean the share price of the hathaway rises 21% per annum on average?

If so - and this could be invested in througfh a leveraged position then ya - it probably would be the best option.


----------



## markowitzman

brk.a or brk.b are tickers for your research. No discussion allowed on specific shares on AAM.


----------



## joe sod

if you just buy the hathaway shares you are gaining exposure to his full portfolio which may not be as responsive because he has huge companies like coca cola which he never sells, however if you buy his most recent buys then you are gaining exposure to his current thinking and where he believes the trend is going, however he only has to reveal his big purchases and US stocks, however even from this he has been buying a big american oil stock, big US electrical and energy company, and big american bank and railways. As regards leverage he doesn't believe in it, however buffet is still very much US centred so you have to factor this in, however one advantage is that information , valuations on stocks are easy to get, an awful lot easier than trying to get full valuations on iseq stocks. Also buffet is not as fashionable as he once was therefore the market does not really respond much to his buys and sells


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## joe sod

Even if you don't want to invest in his stocks, the fact that buffet has been buying into oil, energy and railways is an important signal of where he believes the trend is going, he has never invested in oil or railways until recently


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## ClubMan

markowitzman said:


> brk.a or brk.b are tickers for your research. No discussion allowed on specific shares on AAM.


Google Finance is useful for getting stock prices and summary financials - e.g. BRK.A and BRK.B. Note  that you need a few bob to buy _BH _shares directly!


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## markowitzman

A for the big boys and b for the plebs!


----------



## Swanie

Good chat lads.

A quick question - I'm ready to open up a Goodbodys online account but I'm not 100% sure that all of the items listed in Shipman's website can be traded using that Goodbodys site.

Is there a trading site that you can recommend (not spreadbetting) that would allow me to make trades on all of the items that Shipman recommends?

Thanks.


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## joe sod

http://www.trend-follower.com/index...31&PHPSESSID=430d15e07e6f0f4982685a1b5f61a996

I see from this that mark shipman is still long on oil, but he doesn't have gold on his long list, he is also long the nasdaq, whats the reasoning here, is it just a pure technical play or does he have deeper reasons


----------



## foxyboxer

from what i remember reading the book, he will establish up to 5 positions, to spread the risk, you are therefore fully loaded, and will ignore any other buy signals. once he receives a sell signal for one of the positions he will close it and after the weekly review he will open another position. He has said in the book that he has gone months sometimes years without a position. So, he may not be invested in gold at the moment, but if he has to close a position in future and gold satisfy's entry criteria then yes, a position in gold could be opened. Seems like a common sense way to invest.


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## joe sod

I remember looking at his long list 6 months ago and he was long on gold, however he is still long on oil, usually gold and oil move in tandem, maybe he thinks the gold market will move sideways for a while, Is everything he is long on areas where he is actively buying or simply spread betting on


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## wellray

I tracked Shipmans investments for a while having read the book and he was in Gold & oil very early on. Is it true that the annual cost of spreadbetting long term, i.e.initial bet + 4 rollovers, is 8% (before you make money)? I've just finished reading Michael Covell's book Trend Following and am itching to start. Any other novice spreadbettors out there? Any tips from experienced SBs?


----------



## z106

wellray said:


> I tracked Shipmans investments for a while having read the book and he was in Gold & oil very early on. Is it true that the annual cost of spreadbetting long term, i.e.initial bet + 4 rollovers, is 8% (before you make money)? I've just finished reading Michael Covell's book Trend Following and am itching to start. Any other novice spreadbettors out there? Any tips from experienced SBs?


 
Ya - i read covells alright.
Shipman would be different to covell in that he wouldn't have a purely mechanical exit.

The most enjoyabke one i read was "How i made 2 million dollars in the stock market".

It's one of the legendary ones of all time. Originally written back in teh 50's.

Another classic is "Reminiscens of a stock operator"
I have it - haven't started it yet though.

Malcolm pryors handbook to spreadbetting is very useful too.

You could also try 'Way of the turtle' by curtis faith - one of the original turtles.

Another great one is 'Taming the lion' by richard faleigh - from the dragons den.I went to a lecture of his recently. Very good.

If you want my advice - I've learned the hard way that without question, the most important thing in trading (be it spreadbetting or otherwise) is money management.
You can be right 99% of teh time but without proper money management,that 1% when you're wrong will wipe you out.

As a result you really need a sizeable pot to begin with.
i reckon unless you have minimum 30k, then not to bother because you'll only lose.


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## jimbob1234

i wouldnt agree with the statement that you need 30k to start with at all. i started with 10k and turned it into 30k during last years bull market. (this year is a different story though :-(

www.igindex.co.uk is a the SB firm i use. lots of choices. i have read shipmans book as well as reminisces of a stock operator. the latter is a great book, so insightful when it comes to holding instead of taking profits during a bull market. im not so sure about shipman , yes its true that he was in oil very early but he was also in the nasdaq 100 until recently and thats down almost 20% from its top. why didnt he close this position when the MA turned down (as he says in his book). i have found his positions to be very flaky


----------



## z106

jimbob1234 said:


> i wouldnt agree with the statement that you need 30k to start with at all. i started with 10k and turned it into 30k during last years bull market. (this year is a different story though :-(
> 
> www.igindex.co.uk is a the SB firm i use. lots of choices. i have read shipmans book as well as reminisces of a stock operator. the latter is a great book, so insightful when it comes to holding instead of taking profits during a bull market. im not so sure about shipman , yes its true that he was in oil very early but he was also in the nasdaq 100 until recently and thats down almost 20% from its top. why didnt he close this position when the MA turned down (as he says in his book). i have found his positions to be very flaky


 
Ok - that';s very interesting.

But lets be real here.
Without question you were using very high leverage yes?

Like - that's a whopping 200% return you made there.

Buffet himself only makes around 20% a year.

Excessive leverage is basically bad money management.
If you get lucky then you get very lucky.
However - very easy to get wiped out using that strategy.
i.e. High risk - high reward.
High-risk can only last so long though.


Personally - in teh space of a few montsh I made a 1200% (yes- 1200%)return when my account was at its peak in teh space of a few months.
However - teh only reason I did that was because I was using HUGE leverage.
i.e. My money management was non-existant.

As a result- in one bad week last march I lost it all when teh commodities crumbled around paddys day.

The reality is you cannot enter many positions without taking on relatively high exposure.
Some more so than others.
E.g. If you wanna play heating oil,the minimum exposure you can have is €40k (at least it is with the spreadbetting company I use- I presume they are all fairly similar) 

So - in that instance, if you only had,say, 10k to beigin with, straight awya you would have exposure of 4*leverage.
AND - you woudl have all your eggs in one basket !!

Obviously - as any trader knows youneed to have a few positions open at anyone time give that you willl lose on some bets.

So - this is an interesting debate in fact.

*What do you think the minimum amount someone should have to play the markets ?*

As for shipmans strategy, you are right - he was in the nadsaq.

However no trading system cna be  - nor claims to be - right all teh time. 
I went to his course.
Once he selects an asset he uses a 10% stop loss and remains in it until it is hit.

For teh record he also uses a max of 2-fold leverage.
And only risks 2% of his pot on anyone bet (As most successful traders do).

So on teh nasdaq bet that time, he only lost 2% of his pot i.e. cut his losses.

Those parameters he uses for money management are quite common.

I think it is next to impossible to play the markets using those parameters with an initial pot of only 10k.

That's why I'm saying someone really need around 30k if you want to maintain those parameters.


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## jimbob1234

well the SB firm i use lets you bet .25 minimum of 1 cent on a stock, whereas most irish ones need a minimum of 1 euro. i dont bet on stocks unless the market is in an uptrend ( i have various ways of determining this). i start with .25 and add if it moves in the right direction. i dont open a lot of positions . if i get 200 profit then i raise my stop loss to always protect at least that ammount of profit. if it goes down then i make a calucated decision ( is the stock gone under 50 day MA, is volume high on the way down etc). 

to be perfectly honest im still perfecting my money mgt as i too lost it all . im back in now and a lot more careful, emotionless and shrewd. at present i just have too small positions, short 1.25 on dow jones and .6 on japan nikiii. i have also learned that the ideal way to work is to keep adding continually to your account, not to just try and get one huge winner. either shipman lost a lot or made almost nothing in his nasdaq position, it depends on when he opened it. but he held on to it for quite some time, and it was down a lot more than 8% before he closed it. also he had the hang seng last year, it went up to 32000 points and he didnt close till it came back to25000. to me thats sloppy.


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## jimbob1234

with igindex, minimum trade is .5 on heating oil , dont know how that compares to your company. i am determined to be a trader / speculator , whatever you want to call it. but im not goign to pay CGT, or commissions etc so SB is the way forward. i dont know a minimum ammount to use to play the markets but its possible with good picks to turn 2k into 4 quickly enough (if the conditions are right)


----------



## z106

jimbob1234 said:


> to be perfectly honest im still perfecting my money mgt as i too lost it all . im back in now and a lot more careful, emotionless and shrewd. at present i just have too small positions, short 1.25 on dow jones and .6 on japan nikiii. i have also learned that the ideal way to work is to keep adding continually to your account, not to just try and get one huge winner. either shipman lost a lot or made almost nothing in his nasdaq position, it depends on when he opened it. but he held on to it for quite some time, and it was down a lot more than 8% before he closed it. also he had the hang seng last year, it went up to 32000 points and he didnt close till it came back to25000. to me thats sloppy.


 
I don't understand know what the mniinmum exposure is when you say 0.6 and 1.25 as I don't know what the 'bet per' is with these bets.
Can you express it in terms of exposure instead?
When I say exposuer, what I mean is as follows:
E.g. If gold currently costs 900 and every euro i bet on is based on teh 0.1 change then I have 9000 exposure.
i.e. If gold rises 1% i will make 90. 

So - if,say, I have €10,000 and I make 10 similar bets to above,then i would have 90,000 exposure
i.e. 9-fold leverage - i.e. Money management non-existant.Destined for failure.

The reason i say a min of 30k or so is because for a lot of assets there is a minimum exposure teh SB company will allow you do.
As i said earlier - heating oils minimum exposure is 40k.
If you've only got 10k to play with day one, then, assuming you want to maintain proper money management, then you simply cannot open a position on heating oil.
In fact - there are very few positions you would be able to enter assuming you want to use proper moneymanagement.

And as for shipman, I'll tel you exactly what he lost on the nasdaq.
he lost 2% of his pot - that's how much.
There's nothing wrong with losing bets as a trader mind you.
Lossses are inevitable. Teh ain of teh game is to minimie losses and let profits run.

Which take me on neatly to my next point.
You say shipman is sloppy by letting the hang seng get to 32000 and then drop to 25000?
I'm not so sure i'd agree.

Shipman is a trend follower.
The idea is you staty invested until you thing the trend reverses.

By teh very nature of trend following you never get out at the top - nor do you attemp to.

And while you will never maximise yourprofit on anyone bet, teh idea is that over a series of bets using this startegy,you will make more money in the long run.


----------



## jimbob1234

i dont think you can trend follow using SB. by the time the upward trend is actually established you have missed a lot of the move, by the time the uptrend is confirmed over then you have lost half your profit. i just dont trade that way. 

with the dow at 11200, ever point is equal to 1.25 euro to me. so i have 14000 exposure. i never really need that 14k though as i use stop losses etc and the dow is not going to decline 100%  or else the world is over . 

i used go for the big bets, 1 GBP on oil futures, but this was way too volatile, oil literally could fall to 10 dollars a barrel (its possible!!). if your account was up 1200% how could you lose it all? did you not use stop losses. i think shipman should have closed earlier last year as it was quite obvious that a credit crunch kills world markets for a long time, he didnt seem to know this!!!

also he opened a new nasdaq 100 position in march and the trend was still down, the 50 day MA was under the 200 day MA , shipman said in his book that you never ever go long in that kind or market until the 50 day MA goes above the 200 day MA> guess he broke his own rules


----------



## z106

jimbob1234 said:


> i dont think you can trend follow using SB. by the time the upward trend is actually established you have missed a lot of the move, by the time the uptrend is confirmed over then you have lost half your profit. i just dont trade that way.
> 
> with the dow at 11200, ever point is equal to 1.25 euro to me. so i have 14000 exposure. i never really need that 14k though as i use stop losses etc and the dow is not going to decline 100% or else the world is over .
> 
> i used go for the big bets, 1 GBP on oil futures, but this was way too volatile, oil literally could fall to 10 dollars a barrel (its possible!!). if your account was up 1200% how could you lose it all? did you not use stop losses. i think shipman should have closed earlier last year as it was quite obvious that a credit crunch kills world markets for a long time, he didnt seem to know this!!!
> 
> also he opened a new nasdaq 100 position in march and the trend was still down, the 50 day MA was under the 200 day MA , shipman said in his book that you never ever go long in that kind or market until the 50 day MA goes above the 200 day MA> guess he broke his own rules


 
Firstly - you say it is not possible to trend follow using sporead betting ?
That is incorrect. It makes no sense whatsoever in fact.

You trend follow the markets.
Spread betting is just one way of playing the markets.

It doesn't matter what vehicle you use to play the markets.
Trends exist in teh markets - therefore you can trend follow.

Also - as for shipman closing earlier last year dueto teh obvious impending credit crunch.
This is an invalid point if you follow trends.

The whole point of trend following is that you *react* to teh market - not *pre-empt* teh market.
Exiting due to an impending credit crunch (It's easy to say it in hindsight) would go against all the rules of trend following.

As for the trend still being down on teh nasdaq in march, shipman does not use 50 ma / 200 ma crossovers.
You ar emixing this up with some other strategy that someone else uses.
How shipman identifies an uptrend is as follows:
1) Teh weekly closing price must be the highest for teh last 12 weeks.
2) Teh price must be above teh 40 week moving average
3) Teh 40 week moving average must be increasing.

He never mentions a 50 day moving average anywhwre.
In fact - shipman never uses daily moving averages ever.
He deals exclusively with weekly moving averages.

And as to how did i lose my 1200% profit, it was due to *terrible* moneymanagement and greed.
The more I lost the heavier i gambled to get it back.
That's why I said in my earlier post that money management is vital.

i was correct for about 4 months and made a fortune - i was then incorrect for about 2 weeks and lost it all.

Up by teh stairs down by teh elevator shaft they say !


----------



## z106

Just for teh record jombob - 200 day ma is actually not teh same as 40 week ma.
Yu should read up on _trading 101_ to give you a few tips with teh basics.

I'd also recommend re-reading the shipman books.
You seem to be getting confused with his basic principles.

On re-reading I'm sure you'll see he never mentions a moving average crossover which he uses.(At least not in his first book - he does use on ein his 2nd book - but he never uses that system. He only came up with that systenm as an excuse to write a 2nd book if you ask me)

Neither does he ever invest on stocks as you seem to think.
I'd lilke if you could dig me out that interview where he mentions that.
I've a funny feeling you'll have difficulty in doing so.


----------



## limerickboy1

oh no no no you seem to be embarrassing yourself here qwerty. here is the link

http://www.trend-follower.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=12&Itemid=27

*What markets do you participate in?
*Stock indices, individual shares, interest rate products, government bonds, rental property, commercial property, currencies and all the main commodities such as gold, silver, crude oil, coffee, wheat, soybeans, sugar, cocoa, etc, etc.


of course he trades in individual shares. he has often said this. 

and also the 40 week MA is the same as the 200 day MA. shipman does his analysis at the weeekends so he looks at the 40 week / 200 day MA as of closing price on friday. to put this issue to rest look at 

http://books.google.ie/books?id=SYW...&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=6&ct=result

which states in the middle of the page (for example using the popular 40 week(200 day) moving average, ) implying that the averages are the same thing.

its quite clear from reading the posts here that jimbob didnt think SB was ideally suited to trend following but quwety in fairness man, get your facts straight before you make posts like this one.


----------



## wellray

As I've just read Shipman & Covell, qwerty is correct, trend following never tries to predict, so yes a Credit crunch was looming but strictly speaking must be ignored until the trend changes. 
Covells graphs showed how certain formulas would have achieved 20%+ yearly over a 15 yr period across 15-20 markets - has anyone tried these? And to my original question, if you bet over a year following a trend and therefore rollover the bet 3 times, does the stock/index need to rise by 8% for you to make money, i.e. is this the cost of the SB company spread?


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## limerickboy1

ignore a credit crunch, anyone that does that is very nieve indeed.


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## maturin

Limerickboy,

I don't believe that the 40 week average closing price is necessarily the same as the 200 day average closing price.  They could be the same if the weekly closing price was always the same as the average closing price for that particular week or if the fluctuations in the weekly averages (compared to the daily) averaged themselves out over time. 

Take the DJIA as an example. 40 week MA = 12655, 200 day MA = 12778.
See http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p12018730029
I've include a 40 and 200 week MA. If you toggle to a daily period, you'll see the 40 and 200 day MA. Note the 200 day MA differs from the 40 week MA.


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## wellray

limerick boy I'm not saying ignore - if it happens you react or your stops will. But by acting on what may happen you're predicting which isn't trend following


----------



## limerickboy1

maturin - thats if you look at it today. if you do it shipmans way and just do analysis at weekend then it will be the same. wellray i accept your point but i would rather trade the markets momentum rather than follow trends


----------



## z106

limerickboy1 said:


> oh no no no you seem to be embarrassing yourself here qwerty. here is the link
> 
> http://www.trend-follower.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=12&Itemid=27
> 
> *What markets do you participate in?*
> Stock indices, individual shares, interest rate products, government bonds, rental property, commercial property, currencies and all the main commodities such as gold, silver, crude oil, coffee, wheat, soybeans, sugar, cocoa, etc, etc.
> 
> 
> of course he trades in individual shares. he has often said this.
> 
> and also the 40 week MA is the same as the 200 day MA. shipman does his analysis at the weeekends so he looks at the 40 week / 200 day MA as of closing price on friday. to put this issue to rest look at
> 
> http://books.google.ie/books?id=SYW...&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=6&ct=result
> 
> which states in the middle of the page (for example using the popular 40 week(200 day) moving average, ) implying that the averages are the same thing.
> 
> its quite clear from reading the posts here that jimbob didnt think SB was ideally suited to trend following but quwety in fairness man, get your facts straight before you make posts like this one.


 
Ok Limerickboy/jimbob. you seem to have a few iussues with me here .

Ok - lets go through these one by one.

And before I start - i don't have it in for you or anything - but wha you are saying is simply incorrect.

Point 1
-------
Below is a quote you (jimbob) made in an earlier post.
"said in his book that you never ever go long in that kind or market until the 50 day MA goes above the 200 day MA> guess he broke his own rules"

Ok - lets get this staright.
This is factually incorrect.
I have read his books many times and he never mentions a system he uses where 50 day and 200 day daily moving averages crossover.
You are quite simply wromg with that quote.

Re-read his books.
He doesn't even nearly suggest anything like this.

Point 2
---------
Does shipman trade individual stocks?
Clrearly in that text you posted in that link he says he does.

However - the reality is this.
In the last 18 months at least, he has never trraded an individual stock.
And possibly many years have pased before he has done so.

As you are aware,he posts his positions each week on his website.
If you have been following it each week you will see he has never traded an individual stock since he started posting his positions - which was about 18 months ago.

And why doesn't he trade stocks?
I went to his course. The reaosn is that individual stocks are far less susceptible to trends than indices or commodities are.

Also - as part of the course you are allowed continual email contact with him.
I have queried him on this very subject over email and that was the reason he gave to me.
Also - with individual stocks you are dealing with management issues as opposed to comodities,etc.
As a trend follower he does not advise it.

So -i hope the fact that he told me this in a personal email puts that notion to bed.

That said - to be fair to you, he did say otherwise in that text you quoted me. So it is an understandable error on your part.
Shipman did misrepresent himself there.

Or maybe contradict himself is a better way of putting it.


Point 3
-------
You say that Spreadbetting isn't suited to trend following.

This statement to me is the most ludicrous you have made.

If i was to give an anaolgy, it would equate to advising someone at the race track that their horse has a better chance of winning if they back it through the tote rather than the bookie.
Obviously the vehicle you use to bet on teh horse does not in anyway effect the horses behaviour.

Likewise - regardless of what way you play the markets, it doiens't in any way effct how the market acts.
Teh fact is the markets trend.
Why on earth would using a spreadbetting company prevent you from taking advantage of thes trends?
WIth SB companies,you can place a bet in seconds.
Can you please explain that one to me
That statement has left me most confused.

Point 4
--------
200 day MA = 40 week MA.

Again - this is factually incorrect.
This statement from you clearly demonstrates that you actually do not understand what a moving average is or how it is alculated.
YEs - a 200 day and 40 week are often quite similar.
They are however rarely,if ever, identical.

You seem to be pushing this one on us.
Another poster on this thread has also said you are wrong with this point and they even gave you an example (which you chose to ignore)

I'm telling tou for a FACT that yo are wrong.
Before insisting that you are in fact correct, I would suggest you study how a moving average is calculated.

The conclusion you are coming to on teh basis of that link you provided is an incorrect conclusion.
In fact - i think it is clear (at least to someone who knows what a moving average is) that the point that link ws trying to gice was not say that teh 40 week MA and 200 day MA are identical - it was just saying that they are quite similar - which is truie.
They probably didn't express it in the clearest way posible though.

Believe me on this one - you are wrong.

In fact - let me give you an eample.
By your logic the 2 week MA is the same as the 10 day MA.(seeing as generally you seem to think you just multiply the weekly one by 5 to get the identical thing)

So lets say the closing price for teh 2 weeks are as follows:

Mon: 10
Tue: 20
Wed: 20
Thu: 20
Fri: 10

Mon: 10
Tue: 20
Wed: 20
Thu: 20
Fri: 10

So - what is the 10 day MA at the end of this period?
The answer is 16 (i.e. 10+20+20+20+10+10+20+20+20+10)/10
(i.e.the sum of the closing price each day divided by 10)

The 2 week MA in teh above example is 10 - and not 16 as you seem to think.
(i.e. 10+10)/2 (i.e.the sum of the closing price each week divided by 2)

There is no such thing as an equivalent weekly moving average to a corresponding daily average.
Thet are 2 different things.
There is not supposed to be corresponding weekly to daily moving averages.

I feel I can't spell it out any clearer than that for you !

If you're having trouble with that then you're in big trouble indeed for a man who said he is determined to become a full time trader.


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## limerickboy1

qwerty - im not jimbob by the way. 

1 - in his second book he talks about the method of buying when one MA crosses another one - weeklyl MA to you as you dont seem to understand how many days are in a week

2- he cant put his stock positions on the web site as this would be seen as him affiliating with a particular stock, he is not allowed do this

i didnt read all your post to be honest as it is far too long. good luck to you ( and your loss is 1300%) ha ha


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## z106

limerickboy1 said:


> qwerty - im not jimbob by the way.
> 
> 1 - in his second book he talks about the method of buying when one MA crosses another one - weeklyl MA to you as you dont seem to understand how many days are in a week
> 
> 2- he cant put his stock positions on the web site as this would be seen as him affiliating with a particular stock, he is not allowed do this
> 
> i didnt read all your post to be honest as it is far too long. good luck to you ( and your loss is 1300%) ha ha


 
I refer you to my previous post.It is indeed quite evident that you did not read it.

I would strongly advise you to familiarise yourself with basic topics such as moving averages before you set on this career you desire of being a professional trader.

If you require any further tutoring feel free to PM me.

And for the record he is allowed put his positions on his web site.

Its on http://www.trend-follower.com/ right now.


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## limerickboy1

he is not allowed to put his individual stock positions on his site, he obviously is allowed to put index future positions on it. listen man, im not taking advice from someone who lost everything. bye bye


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## z106

limerickboy1 said:


> he is not allowed to put his individual stock positions on his site, he obviously is allowed to put index future positions on it. listen man, im not taking advice from someone who lost everything. bye bye


 
Limerickboy - I have regular personal email contact with mark shipman.

You are factually incorrect with this assumption you are making.

Just to clear up where your confusion lies, for a while Mark shipman was not allowed post ANY of his positions on his web page.
The reason being that the financial regulator argued that it could be misconstrued as financial advice.

It wasn't in any way related specifically to individual stocks as you seem to think.

The regulator finally came up with a compromise whereby as long as he included a disclaimer he could continue to post his positions.


I find it quite bizarre that you continue to argue this point with me even though I am passing on first hand information from mark shipman himself.
I really have no reason nor desire to make this stuff up.


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## limerickboy1

good man.


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## joe sod

I havn't looked at shipmans diary in a month now but i see he is only long gold now, what a change in a month, one of the best forecasters i have come across even though he does not tip individual stocks or commodities is 'marc faber', he has articles and interviews up and down, but he was the one that got me investing in commodities, he is a long term fan of gold, however in the short term next year he says the most undervalued asset is the US dollar, i usually put my money where his mouth is


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## limerickboy1

gold had made a double top and is on the way down


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## Spectrum48k

I am planning on reading Mark Shipmans two books in the coming weeks. Can you recommend which one to start with? Next Big Investment Boom or Big Money Little Effort? Do they live up to the hype?

PS - Iam goina git me some gold teeth


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## neiltheseal

qwertyuiop said:


> FOr the last 2 months i decided to literally copy all his positions and do nothing else.
> 
> It's worked so far - made a nice few thousand.
> That said - i'm fully aware that 2 months isn't nearly enough of a time span to draw any conclusions.
> 
> However - due to my profits made i'm thinking i'll give the guy back some of it !!




How has it worked out since January with following Mark Shipman? I read both his books and also followed his advice but it didn't work out as well for me in the last 4 months. I'm hoping things will get better for the latter half of this year.

Neil


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## limerickboy1

shipman just closed hid gold position that he opened a few weeks ago. this guy is no help when in a market like this i.e. no real trend and high volatility.


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## z106

limerickboy1 said:


> this guy is no help when in a market like this i.e. no real trend and high volatility.


 
That's correct - nor does he claim to be !

He is involved when markets are trending and he is out when they are not trending.
That is why he has no positions open at the moment.


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## limerickboy1

are u in love with him?


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## Daithi7

Hi Qwerty,

Was the Shipman course in March any good??

Did anyone else attend one of his courses and if so were they worth it??


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## z106

Daithi7 said:


> Hi Qwerty,
> 
> Was the Shipman course in March any good??
> 
> Did anyone else attend one of his courses and if so were they worth it??


 
Yes - I found his course very good.

He goes into more details of stuff that is not included in his book - the most important being his stop loss which for some mad reason was not mentioned in his book.

The thing to remember is that basically he is a trend follower.
There are many trend following systems out there.
The courses teaches just one of them that shipman uses.
He doesn't claim this is the best one. It is one that suits him though.

He has another one starting in february.

I would recommend you look into trend following as a general trading strategy too.

There is a good book by Michael covell called 'trend following'


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## Daithi7

Thanks for that Qwerty,

I have Shipmans book and am currently reading it, and have read the full discussion here which is excellent in fairness.

A few points strike me though:

1. Define your (one's) role: Are you an investor or a trader?

2. Look at other's role and pick out models in your mode i.e. investor models rather than trader models

3. Observe best practice, take a view, from this spot sectors and areas you'd like to invest in, maybe do tech analysis to pick entry (still not sure about this) and hang on until you have realised your view or otherwise (and pick exit based on tech analysis?? -maybe not sure on this either)

For instance, I am an investor not a speculator or trader. While I realise all investors are really just long speculators there are significant differences- one invests based on some fundamentals (or at least a view thereof) while the other is really just playing pure sentiment, which to be honest I don't understand, and even if I did, I would be 24hours out of date as I read newspapers that report on yesterday not today!!

So as an investor right now, say I like Eastern Europe, say I like wind energy, say I like China (but I don't understand enough about markets there) and say I'm begining to like US consumer based companies (e.g. food, etc). So I want to take long positions in some of these and hang on till I think my outlook for these areas has been someway realised.

So what does this have to do with Shipman and Buffet??

It strikes me that Shipman is a speculating trader (via spreadbetting), while Buffet is an investor. So for me, I'm gonna follow people like Buffets way (excuse the pun), and just read Shipman to get another type of animals view of the market, and to try to understand some of the other forces at play in the market I am using as my investment vehicle. Am I right or am I really right- what do you think??

And hence, my real question is, even as an investor should you use some form of technical analysis to time when exactly you get into a market and when out?? e.g. If I want to buy a US Food Company ETF this year, as I think it may be a nice 3-5 year bet, should I try to use some form of tech analysis to pick the exact month,week, day and hour(?) to enter as an investor, so that I maximise potential gains and get in on some sort of momentum push or at a theoretical value price???


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## z106

Daithi7 said:


> Thanks for that Qwerty,
> 
> I have Shipmans book and am currently reading it, and have read the full discussion here which is excellent in fairness.
> 
> A few points strike me though:
> 
> 1. Define your (one's) role: Are you an investor or a trader?
> 
> 2. Look at other's role and pick out models in your mode i.e. investor models rather than trader models
> 
> 3. Observe best practice, take a view, from this spot sectors and areas you'd like to invest in, maybe do tech analysis to pick entry (still not sure about this) and hang on until you have realised your view or otherwise (and pick exit based on tech analysis?? -maybe not sure on this either)
> 
> For instance, I am an investor not a speculator or trader. While I realise all investors are really just long speculators there are significant differences- one invests based on some fundamentals (or at least a view thereof) while the other is really just playing pure sentiment, which to be honest I don't understand, and even if I did, I would be 24hours out of date as I read newspapers that report on yesterday not today!!
> 
> So as an investor right now, say I like Eastern Europe, say I like wind energy, say I like China (but I don't understand enough about markets there) and say I'm begining to like US consumer based companies (e.g. food, etc). So I want to take long positions in some of these and hang on till I think my outlook for these areas has been someway realised.
> 
> So what does this have to do with Shipman and Buffet??
> 
> It strikes me that Shipman is a speculating trader (via spreadbetting), while Buffet is an investor. So for me, I'm gonna follow people like Buffets way (excuse the pun), and just read Shipman to get another type of animals view of the market, and to try to understand some of the other forces at play in the market I am using as my investment vehicle. Am I right or am I really right- what do you think??
> 
> And hence, my real question is, even as an investor should you use some form of technical analysis to time when exactly you get into a market and when out?? e.g. If I want to buy a US Food Company ETF this year, as I think it may be a nice 3-5 year bet, should I try to use some form of tech analysis to pick the exact month,week, day and hour(?) to enter as an investor, so that I maximise potential gains and get in on some sort of momentum push or at a theoretical value price???


 
Well ya - I suppose a certain grey area is what is the difference between a trader and an investor.
Not sure if there is an exact textbook difference.
Investors would probably be around for the longer term though whereas traders can be in and out in only hours.

For the record, shipman does consider himself an investor.

However I am not so sure i would agree with him.

Shipman is big into identifying bubbles and riding those to make the quick buck.

I am not so sure that an investor would do that as a big part of tehir investing strategy? (Maybe i am wrong)
I would have assumed that investors would be buying soley on fundamentals (albeit with a little chart analysis to time their entries/exists)

One difference between buffett and shipman is that shipman relies far more heavily on charts.
Because he uses long term charts he then defines it as investing.

What I will say is that regardless of what school of thought you come from, a lot of 'investors' do use charts to time their entry.

i.e. they trade with the trend as opposed to against it.
Personally i would not reallly call this technical analysis.

For me i think technical analysis referes to using charts to trying to predict the fuuture (fiobanacci,turning points etc.)- as opposed to using charts to trade with the trend.
(I suppose you could argue that trading with the trend is also predictive. Not to the same degree though)


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## mooney76

For those using charts, what charting sites would you use for or have you seen recommended and is there any particular reason why those charts are better than others?


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## limerickboy1

how can shipiman regard himself as an investor when he predominantly trades on stock index futures??? what does he invest in


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## z106

For the last few years he has invested exclusively in indices and commodities.

Personally I would consider him more of a longterm trader.


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## badabing

Who thinks 'the next big investment boom' about commodities presumably is still relavent?
http://www.trend-follower.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13&Itemid=28

Is this book wirth reading?


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## joe sod

I saw him on the late late 2 years ago and he was a spark of light , a very unusual guest for this show, he said house prices in britain and ireland would crash and he had cashed out of that market in 2004, this was a shock then to the late late audience, he said the next big thing was commodities and it would last many years and this was where he was putting his money, so he has identified the long term trend, in other words he is not following any trend but only the one he thinks is a really long term one


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## foxyboxer

Hello,
I have read both Mark's Books and like the idea of long term investing.
As he says, luck rewards the prepared
Therefore, I am currently conducting my own due dilligence about where I can actually invest in an ETF when (hopefully, if), the next crossover happens in the markets. 
What stockbrokers provide ETF's to track the following indices?
FTSE100, DOW, NIKKEI, S&P500, CAC 40, DAX, HANG SENG?

The


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## foxyboxer

Hello,
I have read both Mark's Books and like the idea of long term investing.
As he says, luck rewards the prepared
Therefore, I am currently conducting my own due dilligence about where I can actually invest in an ETF when (hopefully, if), the next crossover happens in the markets. 
What stockbrokers provide ETF's to track the following indices?
FTSE100, DOW, NIKKEI, S&P500, CAC 40, DAX, HANG SENG?

The indices have closed strongly this week and in the coming months a crossover in each may be possible and I'd like to be prepared to capitalise as it were.
Any suggestions or advice is appreciated.


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## rolysmithers

*Mark Shipmans strategy*

Guys, I was wondering who is following Shipmans advice at the moment and are in long term trades, or considering it.

I think his strategy is worth a go now and we can profit from rising markets now- would anybody like to club together to ensure we are in the right trades and managing risk correctly? Feel free to message me or contribute..

For anyone not Au fait, Mark Shipman advocates a long term investment stragegy using trends and spread bets as the vehicle.


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## ringledman

I like his views on the commodity boom but what he talks of is more trading than investing. 

He has some good points about technical analysis regarding trading but little on the fundamentals to support long term investing from what I can remember. 

A good technical trading analysis on commodities can be found at -http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/index.php


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## Daithi7

I've read Shipmans Book 'Big Money Little Effort' and I'm interested in how he 'proves' his long term trading system by showing the trades it would have generated on the S&P 500 index from (i think) ~1949 to 2007.

I'm just wondering
1. Has anyone noticed that this was an almighty bullish period for this index and that buy & hold would have actually performed as well if not better over the same period?

2. If you sold when he said to buy and bought when he said to sell, you'd have done quite well as well (reference his data in the appendix)

3. Has anyone come across a good on-line or software tool to carry out retrospective analysis of such investing systems? (Specifically I would like to get one that calulated real rates of return as opposed to absolutes, and that could compare a live investment's return versus the no risk returns available  from cash/treasuries over the same period?

I hope this post is of use to those who may consider trend/momentum trading as a totally proven methodology. i.e. User beware, just cos a system appears to work with really favourable data over a long period may not mean it works with data that might not be as favourable or just may not fit its algorythm for generating returns e.g. how would it do with FTSE 100, Commodities, House Prices over long period versus buy & hold and versus investing in no risk alternative e.g. cash/treasuries over the same timescales. I remain to be convinced tbh.


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## croker

> I've read Shipmans Book 'Big Money Little Effort' and I'm interested in how he 'proves' his long term trading system by showing the trades it would have generated on the S&P 500 index from (i think) ~1949 to 2007.
> 
> I'm just wondering
> 1. Has anyone noticed that this was an almighty bullish period for this index and that buy & hold would have actually performed as well if not better over the same period?
> 
> 2. If you sold when he said to buy and bought when he said to sell, you'd have done quite well as well (reference his data in the appendix)
> 
> 3. Has anyone come across a good on-line or software tool to carry out retrospective analysis of such investing systems? (Specifically I would like to get one that calulated real rates of return as opposed to absolutes, and that could compare a live investment's return versus the no risk returns available from cash/treasuries over the same period?
> 
> I hope this post is of use to those who may consider trend/momentum trading as a totally proven methodology. i.e. User beware, just cos a system appears to work with really favourable data over a long period may not mean it works with data that might not be as favourable or just may not fit its algorythm for generating returns e.g. how would it do with FTSE 100, Commodities, House Prices over long period versus buy & hold and versus investing in no risk alternative e.g. cash/treasuries over the same timescales. I remain to be convinced tbh.


Its been a long time since i've read his material but i believe he goes long over the 200-day moving average and shorts below that. 
The one real-world example that i remember was crude oil last year. Following his advice you would have shorted oil at $110 which worked out well. It's probably the same with everything, if you know what you're doing you can make it work, if you dont then just tell everyone its crap and move on.


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## reynolds

Just bought the book yesterday, leafed through his old book. Hopefully an interesting read


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## fiatmoney

Daithi7 said:


> I've read Shipmans Book 'Big Money Little Effort' and I'm interested in how he 'proves' his long term trading system by showing the trades it would have generated on the S&P 500 index from (i think) ~1949 to 2007.
> 
> I'm just wondering
> 1. Has anyone noticed that this was an almighty bullish period for this index and that buy & hold would have actually performed as well if not better over the same period?
> 
> 2. If you sold when he said to buy and bought when he said to sell, you'd have done quite well as well (reference his data in the appendix)
> 
> 3. Has anyone come across a good on-line or software tool to carry out retrospective analysis of such investing systems? (Specifically I would like to get one that calulated real rates of return as opposed to absolutes, and that could compare a live investment's return versus the no risk returns available from cash/treasuries over the same period?
> 
> I hope this post is of use to those who may consider trend/momentum trading as a totally proven methodology. i.e. User beware, just cos a system appears to work with really favourable data over a long period may not mean it works with data that might not be as favourable or just may not fit its algorythm for generating returns e.g. how would it do with FTSE 100, Commodities, House Prices over long period versus buy & hold and versus investing in no risk alternative e.g. cash/treasuries over the same timescales. I remain to be convinced tbh.


 
[broken link removed]

See if this will convince you...


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## Daithi7

Hi FiatM, Reynolds & Croker,

thanks for replies to date.

Croker: For clarity, Shipman's system is yes go long when 30 week moving average (MA) goes over 50 wk , but its just to sell when the 30 week M.A. goes below the 50 week (not to go short as you wrote).

Also he explicitly states that it is to take advantage of an upwardly trending market only (and to avoid lulls or big bear dips in these type of markets).

SO he maintains you don't (necessarily) need expertise in what you are investing, you just need to be pretty sure that it will trend upwards over the long term and also use the system to say when to get in and when to get out.

My query was and is: has anyone run this system (or algorythm) over any other market data over long term e.g. property market, ftse, gold, nasdaq, etc, etc to prove that it actually works on more than 1 set of market data????

and 2. how has its performance fared versus the no-risk investment returns available over the same period (such as cash dep rates or government bonds, etc) when applied to these markets??

As I think for anyone thinking of using such a trend following system these are 2 of the KEY KEY questions.

p.s. The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham, revised by Jason Zweig (2002/3) specifically rubbishes such systematic approaches in chapters 4 &5. (This book is the fundamental investors bible for those unfamiliar with it ,and I would seriously recommend it to those who have not read it)


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## PMU

Daithi7 said:


> My query was and is: has anyone run this system (or algorythm) over any other market data over long term e.g. property market, ftse, gold, nasdaq, etc, etc to prove that it actually works on more than 1 set of market data????


 
  I wasn’t aware of Mr Shipman’s system, but I had noticed the 30/50 crossover rule on ‘Market Buy and Sell signals’ on Rory Gillen’s new Irish *InvestR Centre* website*: *
http://www.investrcentre.com/buy_and_sell_signals/. 

[InvestrCentre is referred to in this post: http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=125526]

  I did a quick ‘1st cut’ analysis of this 30/50 moving average indicator on some of the asset classes in which I invest.  Note I didn’t do it on the index values but on the values in euro of some of the EFTs, funds etc. that I use as investment vehicles. Let’s say, based on the results, I wouldn’t be betting on this approach as the road to riches. [Note that Mr Gillen’s ‘Buy & Sell signals’ also refers to the Coppock indicator, something you might find it prudent to investigate further.]


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## Daithi7

Thanks PMU,

Very useful and pertinent info.


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## joself

Does anyone know about his new thing the Autonomous Millionaire? Is it worth getting?


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## jpd

Q. If the advice given in this book is so good, why does Marc Shipman have to offer courses/sell books ? Wouldn't he just follow the advice and make his fortune that way ?

A. Duh!


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## joself

On the Autonomous Millionaire website it says "Mark has  recently been added to Global Investors “Top 100 Investors of  All-Time”

...would they really do that if he wasn't making good money investing?


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## PW ask

As I understand it, Mark explains in one of the Autonomous Milionaire videos that he DOES make his fortune from investing and he doesn't NEED to offer books or courses at all.


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## dubrov

There are so many of these trend investing strategies going around at the moment that they probably have something to do with all the recent trending observed in the markets. Everything is rocketing up only to be slammed down later.

Fundamentals don't seem to have any influence on the short-term market value.

A lot of these trend investing strategies usually cover themselves with a lot of useful information about risk assessment and management. However, The actual entry and exit strategies are dubious to say the least.


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## Markjbloggs

dubrov said:


> However, The actual entry and exit strategies are dubious to say the least.



How can you make a blanket statement like this without having examined each strategy in detail?


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## dubrov

Well, if a strategy was that good why would you bother publishing it? The reason is probably because you'll make a lot more selling it to others than actually employing it yourself.

Even if you did it jsut for the good of humanity, if 10,000 other people were also employing the same strategy, you would really see some random returns.

Maybe there are some decent strategies out there but as the market changes so much I can't imagine any strategy based on technical analysis which will give any sort of stable returns


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## panitanfc

Qwerty,

I read your post about Marks Shipmans trend following strategy. I'm just curious about his strategy and willing to learn more about this strategy. I've read his book-(The next big Investment)

I would like to have a chat or discussion with about spread betting as well and maybe we could talk about some other strategy about investments and spread betting. 

I live in Dundrum, Dublin. 

Regor


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## Rory Gillen

Mark Shipman wrote a good book 'Big Money, Little Effort, and backed the claims he made in that book with facts. His methodology is straight forward and can be measured. As a result of his book, I now use his approach as a 'technical' timing indicator on markets, along side other indicators. I was very grateful for having read his book.

I would not agree with comments that suggest everyone can read it all in a book - to me that is the same as saying that children need not attend school but could, instead, stay at home, study hard and then sit the 'Leaving Cert' and have an equal chance. Few humans learn like that. If I were you, and his course has been recommended to you by someone you know, I would do the course. Prehaps treat it as an investment in your own stockmarket education. It is alot easier to lose the same few hundred Euros if you are unprepared.

Rory Gillen


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## ccraig

what is the cheapest way to buy into an indices like s&p500? I would like to test out some of his strategies my broker charges too much % fees either side of a trade and  using them would cut out a lot of profit if buy and sell signals were frequent. Also he warns of fake signals, does anyone know how to distinguish these!0


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## ccraig

cancelled


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## ccraig

also is leveraging a share/indices by slightly more than 1, ie 1.1, still considered a cfd and if so who does these cheaper than traditional irish brokers !


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