# London House Sales Slump



## Duplex (12 May 2005)

The number of home sales in London have fallen by 40% yoy.  What would happen in Ireland if sales in Dubin fell by a similar figure?



http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/money/articles/18573863?source=Evening Standard#


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## Gabriel (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

In fairness...could you not have just added this comment to an existing thread???? 

Aren't the same replies going to be posted in this thread as in all the other threads?

A hyperlink does not make a new topic!!


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## Steo (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

In my humble opinion, news of this magnitude is not really out of place as a new topic

"House sales in London have collapsed to their lowest levels since records began 10 years ago"

And Duplex is one of the most respected posters in this forum - again IMHO.


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## ClubMan (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Steo said:
			
		

> And Duplex is one of the most respected posters in this forum - again IMHO.



S/he may well be but since the original poster is unregistered we have absolutely no idea/guarantee who s/he is.


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## Unregistered (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				ClubMan said:
			
		

> S/he may well be but since the original poster is unregistered we have absolutely no idea/guarantee who s/he is.



Me - I tend to go by what a poster is saying rather than what name (usually phoney) they choose to register under


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## Unregistered (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Duplex said:
			
		

> What [would] happen in Ireland [if] sales in Dubin fell by a similar figure?



Replace "would" with "will", "if" with "when" and "fell" by "fall" and this question becomes even more worrying.....


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## Duplex (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

but IIIIII am Duplex and I say London sales have increased and that the market is bouyant, shame on the nay sayers who rain on the property parade !!!!!


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## tonka (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Duplex said:
			
		

> What would happen in Ireland if sales in Dubin fell by a similar figure?



Dublin is not Ireland so the answer is nothing much really . 

I would worry about PRICES IN IRELAND dropping by 40%


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## Gabriel (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

Surely a london/Irish property thread would fall under this () category and therefore should be amalgamated into it?


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## Unregistered (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

I think the message was referring to SALES dropping.

The best answer to Duplex's question I came across was from an unregistered user on this website. (Why are all the best posts from unregistered users? - sorry I digress)



> The end game:
> The stalemate will be resolved in favour of buyers. Why? Because in a stagnant market with cautious buyers there’s always more distressed sellers on the margin than distressed buyers. Prices in free markets are set on the margin, ask any 1st year student of economics. In any case, the marginal distressed seller- divorce, kids, job loss, higher interest rates- will have to accept whatever price they can get. They’ll have no choice because cash will be king and serious buyers will have tremendous leverage to ratchet trade prices down and down. As one distressed seller after another accepts a lower price the falls gain moment, more people go into neg equity, and sentiment goes well and truly ugly. This part of the sequence is swift and brutal. (Aside, my guess is because the economy here is so tied to property there’ll be a recession brought on by the collapse of prices and this will make things even uglier).


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## ClubMan (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Unregistered said:
			
		

> Me - I tend to go by what a poster is saying rather than what name (usually phoney) they choose to register under



Unregistered names are even more phony than registered pseydonyms. Unlike the former, the latter provide some level of guarantee that the same person is posting each time.


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## Unregistered (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

This registeredusers versus unregistered has cropped up before. Is there anyway the merits of each can be merged and discussed in a single topic. 

It really has nothing to do with the subject of this thread:

"House sales in London have collapsed to their lowest levels since records began 10 years ago"  

..and the question following this very important fact.


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## MonsieurBond (12 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Gabriel said:
			
		

> Surely a london/Irish property thread would fall under this () category and therefore should be amalgamated into it?



Well I for one found that the shock title of the thread caught my attention!!

(Mind you "Property Sales Slump by 40%" on its own without the London bit would have been even more eye-grabbing!)

A lot of people look to the UK and London markets for clues as to what may happen with the Irish market.

I would be worried if this trend remains for any period of time.


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## Unregistered (13 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				MonsieurBond said:
			
		

> A lot of people look to the UK and London markets for clues as to what may happen with the Irish market.




That's a very good point. We are lucky here in Ireland in the sense that we have the UK and several other countries that are like "canaries in the coalmine" for us. They are giving advance warning on how robust the global housing boom (or bubble) is to interest rate rises. The message is not very encouraging: Things are turning ugly


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## Gabriel (13 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Unregistered said:
			
		

> That's a very good point. We are lucky here in Ireland in the sense that we have the UK and several other countries that are like "canaries in the coalmine" for us. They are giving advance warning on how robust the global housing boom (or bubble) is to interest rate rises. The message is not very encouraging: Things are turning ugly



My main problem with these types of posts I think is illustrated above. Instead of looking at the FACTS of the Irish market [be they good *or* bad] certain people just want to talk the market down. 
Just as they accuse everyone with a differing opinion of having "vested interests" they quite obviously have vested interests themselves and are only interested in continuously forecasting our doomed fate in sometimes hilarious scenarios that are far removed from reality.


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## Unregistered (13 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

If you really - hand on the heart - believe that house prices in Ireland will only go up and never go down then you shouldn't find it upsetting that someone else should think otherwise.

And whether or not a house price correction signals "doom" really depends on your point of view.  There are many who believe that house prices returning to more normal levels would actually be good for the country long term.

If you want to buy property in Ireland today then by all means go ahead - it's your money/debts - but make sure you take emotion out of it and have some contingency plans as sentiment appears to be shifting.


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## Gabriel (13 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Unregistered said:
			
		

> If you really - hand on the heart - believe that house prices in Ireland will only go up and never go down then you shouldn't find it upsetting that someone else should think otherwise.



I've already posted a link to a sensible debate on this topic which looks at the bubble theory in a factual manner.

I already have property...my ppr. No intention of buying anything else right now. No vested interest.



> ...sentiment appears to be shifting.



Why...because you say it is or because you can provide facts?


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## Unregistered (13 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

Your idea of a sensible factual posting is a posting that agrees with your viewpoint. Anything else gets the usual ranting. Quite funny actually!

There are plenty of postings dealing with facts and sentiments but it's the old saying "there are none so blind as those who refuse to see"


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## Gabriel (13 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



> Your idea of a sensible factual posting is a posting that agrees with your viewpoint



No...it is not. A sensible posting is one that backs up theories with facts and sensible scenarios.

This is the link I provided which few, obviously, bothered to read....

[broken link removed]

It deals with the bubble theory in a factual manner, as opposed to an alarmist one.

You'll excuse me if I take my rational debating style somewhere with more rational debaters.


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## Unregistered (13 May 2005)

*lower property prices are a GOOD thing*

Duplex they removed your Fallujah Investment parody to 'the craic'.  it was hilarious, keep it up.  But it does go to show you the ethos of this site.  I.e. property bullish views prefered... the bears around here should take solace that events will unfold in our favour...


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## ClubMan (13 May 2005)

*Re: lower property prices are a GOOD thing*



			
				Unregistered said:
			
		

> Duplex they removed your Fallujah Investment parody to 'the craic'. it was hilarious, keep it up. But it does go to show you the ethos of this site. I.e. property bullish views prefered... the bears around here should take solace that events will unfold in our favour...



Not at all. Once again there is no conspiracy theory behind all of this. I simply moved it to _The Craic_ because, as you yourself admit, it was a parody/joke and hence belonged in _The Craic _rather than one of the more serious forums. No other reason. And the redirect link is still here for the moment. Some people have little to be complaining about...


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## Unregistered (14 May 2005)

*Housing Market Collapse Draws Nearer*

According to the financial times:

[broken link removed]


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## z107 (15 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

At this stage I almost wish it would just collapse. Put us all out of our misery.


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## walk2dewater (15 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

We've just barely entered the stagnation stage IMHO.  There's a way to go just yet in the cycle.  There are enough supports to maintain this phase for a while.  Nevertheless, the cheques is in the mail for the Great Irish Property Pyramid Scheme 2000-2005...  if you need solace pay close attention to the UK which is about a year ahead of us in the cycle..

For now I say:  Enjoy the cheap rent and flexibility of living where you want to, wait and save up a larger deposit, tune out the noise of the property hypsters their time in coming to a close, and most of all enjoy life....  

Then:  Get ready with a fat deposit to pick up the deals when the over-extended start rushing to the exits in earnest...


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## tonka (15 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

Galway City has entered the stagnation stage but a cartel of Estate Agents keep the asking prices on the even keel it has been on since about q3 2003 .  Sooner or later the asking prices will drop because of oversupply and then the fun starts .

The creepiest thing I saw all year was the Doughiska house with the White goods still in their packaging in the kitchen, the house was never rented out and never will be  and will be dumped on the market when the appreciation stops AND everyone knows it .   There are others out there of course ,  .

House building in Galway peaked in 2003/early 2004 and has scaled back quite a lot owing to lack of demand.

Many new entries to the labour market in Galway nowadays are Poles living 10 to a rented house to save money so pop increases are no indicator of housing demand any more, sorry about that .

Watch Galway, it will fall first.


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## Gabriel (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				walk2dewater said:
			
		

> Then: Get ready with a fat deposit to pick up the deals when the over-extended start rushing to the exits in earnest...




Virtually identical prophecies were made here over two years ago. And I've been hearing similar doomsday scenarios for well over 7 years on and off.

I always wondered where all the doomsayers go afterwards...?


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## walk2dewater (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

Gabriel, I refer you to the current situation in UK.  Over 1/2 million properties stagnating on the market and all the housing indices are falling month after month, going into -ve year-on-year by as early as June... I wont post links, a cursory search of the web will uncover the facts.... Although, perhaps you're onto something Gabriel, Ireland may well stubbornly defy the fate of all bubbles, we may indeed end up with the highest land/property prices the world has ever seen... God save us then...


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## Gabriel (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				walk2dewater said:
			
		

> Gabriel, I refer you to the current situation in UK.  Over 1/2 million properties stagnating on the market and all the housing indices are falling month after month, going into -ve year-on-year by as early as June... I wont post links, a cursory search of the web will uncover the facts.... Although, perhaps you're onto something Gabriel, Ireland may well stubbornly defy the fate of all bubbles, we may indeed end up with the highest land/property prices the world has ever seen... God save us then...




The UK housing market is very different to the Irish one...just as the Australian one is...


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## walk2dewater (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

if it walks like a duck...

no matter, 'the cheque is in the mail' and my advice remains the same;  maintain zero speculative exposure to the irish market.


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## Gabriel (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				walk2dewater said:
			
		

> if it walks like a duck...





			
				walk2dewater said:
			
		

> the cheque is in the mail'



Cliches aside, using other countries as blotting paper for the Irish market is disingenuous.



			
				walk2dewater said:
			
		

> maintain zero speculative exposure to the irish market.



Again, I heard this up to 7 years ago, from various family members and friends of friends.

According to some we've been at the 'top end' of the market for about 5 years now.


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## CoffeeBrew (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Gabriel said:
			
		

> The UK housing market is very different to the Irish one...just as the Australian one is...


 
Ireland has been ranked as having the most global economy in the world and yet you appear to be saying we have nothing to learn from the unfolding property crisis in the UK and Australia (and others!). Is that your stance ?


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## joe sod (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

"According to some we've been at the 'top end' of the market for about 5 years now."

So that simply means that there will need to be 5 years of reversing back to 2000 levels. So if your thinking about property hold on for at least 5 years


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## walk2dewater (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

The irish market is different Gabriel because?  remind me.  There's a miraculous floor under which irish prices cannot ever move..  Why's that?  The govt is going to set up a Department of Irish Property Price Floors and compel buyers to accept any price the vendors deem is the 'right' price , is that it?  You are niave about how markets work son.

markets have a funny way of making mickies out of us all...
this is the real world..

[broken link removed]

Gabriel, you've being hearing its a bubble for 7 years, so therefore with even higher prices it's not a bubble now?  Faulty logic there.  oh and while I'm at it, another point I'd like to raise is that, lower housing prices benefits everyone who wants to be housed.  It benefits FTBs and it benefits trader-ups.  If you're a FTB or someone with a growing family who needs to trade up you should welcome the cheaper prices coming your way.  Who wants high housing costs anyway?


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## ClubMan (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				joe sod said:
			
		

> "According to some we've been at the 'top end' of the market for about 5 years now."
> 
> So that simply means that there will need to be 5 years of reversing back to 2000 levels. So if your thinking about property hold on for at least 5 years



This makes no sense at all. Why would 2000 levels of house prices be somehow special? Why not some other arbitrary year? What does "top end of the market" mean anyway?


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## Gabriel (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				CoffeeBrew said:
			
		

> Ireland has been ranked as having the most global economy in the world and yet you appear to be saying we have nothing to learn from the unfolding property crisis in the UK and Australia (and others!). Is that your stance ?



My own views are not so black and white as those presented by many here. 

The boom is undoubtedly slowing down. However, the jumps that many here appear to be taking from this point are rather outlandish to say the least.

There are plenty of subtle and important differences between our market and the British one. 




			
				walk2dewater said:
			
		

> There's a miraculous floor under which irish prices cannot ever move.. Why's that?



I never said there was! I said there were differences. The argument you and many here present is oh look...the whole global housing market is about to come crashing to its knees. Why? Because it's happening in Australia, because it's happening in the UK. The giant leaps made from country to country is farcical.




			
				walk2dewater said:
			
		

> Gabriel, you've being hearing its a bubble for 7 years, so therefore with even higher prices it's not a bubble now? Faulty logic there.



No...far from it. I've been hearing this from _some_ people. However, just because some people believe this "bubble" is just about to burst doesn't mean it's necessarily so.



			
				walk2dewater said:
			
		

> lower housing prices benefits everyone who wants to be housed. It benefits FTBs and it benefits trader-ups. If you're a FTB or someone with a growing family who needs to trade up you should welcome the cheaper prices coming your way. Who wants high housing costs anyway?



But then I don't base my assumptions on what I *hope* will happen.


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## walk2dewater (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

The beauty of this debate is that events will unfold in favour of those in the bear camp.  The bulls continue to have the upper hand as year-on-year price changes remain positive.  I believe the TSB permanent HPI comes out this week.  Any bets the index will be positive but down?  The spin will be, "the market continues to slow, allowing the pent up masses of eager buyers a once-only chance to get their first step on the property ladder before the prices accelerate once again..." etc.


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## Gabriel (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				walk2dewater said:
			
		

> The beauty of this debate is that events will unfold in favour of those in the bear camp.  The bulls continue to have the upper hand as year-on-year price changes remain positive.  I believe the TSB permanent HPI comes out this week.  Any bets the index will be positive but down?  The spin will be, "the market continues to slow, allowing the pent up masses of eager buyers a once-only chance to get their first step on the property ladder before the prices accelerate once again..." etc.



Why is it that the tone of these posts always seems to be..."We'll win in the end" as opposed to just dealing with facts?

Most sensible theory (I stress that word) I've listened to on this topic assumes or even takes for granted that the burst or surge we've seen in recent years is all but over. 
If I were a betting man I would assume that _price rises_ would continue to drop until they reach 1/2% per year and then steady off. 

But I'll openly acknowledge that that's a guess on my part. However, it seems markedly more plausible than some of the ideas here and on other similar threads.


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## CoffeeBrew (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



> My own views are not so black and white as those presented by many here.
> 
> The boom is undoubtedly slowing down. However, the jumps that many here appear to be taking from this point are rather outlandish to say the least.
> 
> There are plenty of subtle and important differences between our market and the British one.


 
Gabriel 

Do you believe that house prices could fall here ? 
Also, what do you think we can learn here in Ireland from the property crises emerging in the UK ?.


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## Gabriel (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				CoffeeBrew said:
			
		

> Do you believe that house prices could fall here ?



Yes...of course I believe they _could_ fall in the future, given the right circumstances.

However, I personally don't think it's very likely, in any near future, and there's no data to suggest this is about to happen here.

An interest rate hike will/should slow the market a little further. If it happens, all current thought is that it will be a small increase [within the next 6-8 months].

My problem is with some of the completely outlandish ideas being posted here.


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## tonka (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Gabriel said:
			
		

> and there's no data to suggest this is about to happen here.



Having house prices at an ALL  time high:

Relative to gross incomes
Relative to take home pay
Relative to Rents ...ie the YIELD 

And all of this being commented yer OECDs and ESRIs and even by the Economist  about 5 years ago  )  .  None of this _Data_ would be in the least compelling would it Gabriel. ??


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## Gabriel (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				tonka said:
			
		

> Having house prices at an ALL  time high:
> 
> Relative to gross incomes
> Relative to take home pay
> ...



In 2000, house prices were at an all time high in relation to all historical data, weren't they?

The same rule applies to every year thereafter.
So then there's nothing that unusual about prices being at an "all time high" is there?


What about the affordability of mortgages...as a percentage of net disposable income?


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## Gabriel (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

The conclusion of the article I posted earlier is as follows. If you read the whole article then the current situation becomes clearer.

[broken link removed]



> *Conclusion*
> There has been much speculation in recent times concerning the rapid rise in Irish
> house prices. Many commentators have suggested that current house prices are not
> sustainable and that the recent rise in house prices reflect the presence of a
> ...



So, in essence, it becomes possible for real house prices to fall...but other things need to happen or not happen before this will take place.


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## tonka (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

Net disposable has income hardly changed since 2000 Gabriel, most of the long series of 1990s tax cuts and interest rate cuts had been passed on to us by 2000. 
`
While house prices were soggy after Bacon , in 2000 and 2001, the post 9/11 interest rate cuts together with removal of Bacon in early 2002 and lax practises in Banks have caused a serious bubble in the period 2002-2004 inclusive . I would have been content had prices plateaud around 2000 or so as it would have been sustainable. 

As it was possible to buy a given semi in Galway back in 2001 for £135k (€172k) where they are about €240 now I would see prices falling by as much as a third to get back to those 2001 levels. 

The lifting of the Bacon restrictions charging investors 9% stamp duty caused a massive speculative froth based on cheap money and easy credit post 911. This dragged in a lot of first time speculators from what I see. 

My own sister in law (mid to upper scale civil servant with slow earning growth potential ) was offered over 5 times her salary to get a mortgage recently , on her own and over 30 years . She is 38 , frankly I cannot see her working at 68 .


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## CoffeeBrew (16 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Gabriel said:
			
		

> The conclusion of the article I posted earlier is as follows. If you read the whole article then the current situation becomes clearer.
> 
> [broken link removed]
> 
> ...


 
Gabriel

What do you know about the author of this academic paper - Patrick Foley ?
Most of the UCC academic staff have a career outline on the website but he doesn't.
The reason I ask, is there is (or was!) an economist for TSB (as in permanent-tsb) called Patrick Foley. Obviously this company has a huge vested interest in the Irish property market.

But even if it's not the same guy you should know that academics often disagree amongst themselves so choosing one to quote from that aligns with your own hopes/beliefs may add to the debate but certainly doesn't settle it !


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## Gabriel (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				CoffeeBrew said:
			
		

> What do you know about the author of this academic paper - Patrick Foley ?



I know nothing of the author.



			
				CoffeeBrew said:
			
		

> Obviously this company has a huge vested interest in the Irish property market.



I would have thought that given his conclusion included...

_"However there is a
danger that real house prices may fall considerably if government policy and/or
economic consideration force investors out of the housing market. Also real house
prices may fall if banks impose a credit squeeze with regard to mortgage lending.
Under such circumstances Irish house prices may experience the boom-bust scenario
so typical of many housing markets internationally."_

that the piece was fairly *unbiased and balanced*!!!


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## CoffeeBrew (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Gabriel said:
			
		

> I know nothing of the author.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 
Actually Gabriel I must say that that paragraph looks very similiar to the standard threat that big financial institutions are using to intimidate the government to inaction.

As recent as a few weeks ago AIB said a remarkably similiar thing. (I'll see if I can find the link on RTE.ie).

They were basically saying to the Government: Don't do anything to interfere with our profits or else !!


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## tonka (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

Arguably the credit squeeze mechanism is nowt to do with Government and a lot more to do with what the Central Bank, acting independently , considers to be prudent Banking .

The Central Bank can suck liquidity out of the Retail Banks by increasing reserve ratios , this forces the banks to pull out of certain lending books as they no longer have spare cash to throw at them .

I woulda thought that 95% Interest Only Investors , banking on Capital appreciation seeing as they cannot find tenants , are higher risk / lower margin than most CC customers and will get the chop quite early on in  a sqeeze .


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## Gabriel (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

If you actually read the entire article I don't think it comes across as a financial instituation threatening the government...but you can ring Patrick Foley if you like and find out exactly who he is.


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## CoffeeBrew (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Gabriel said:
			
		

> If you actually read the entire article I don't think it comes across as a financial instituation threatening the government


 
As you know I was referring to the paragraph you quoted. I didn't say the entire document had that tone.



> ...but you can ring Patrick Foley if you like and find out exactly who he is.


 
To be honest I don't really care. I was just curious if you knew something of this author because you have posted this same link so many times now.


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## Gabriel (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				CoffeeBrew said:
			
		

> ...because you have posted this same link so many times now.



Probably because no one's bothered to read it or at least deal with the jist of it. It's a very well written and well argumented piece, even if you find holes in its main points.


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## tonka (17 May 2005)

*Bubbles et al*

I read this book (linked below) some 20 years ago when it came out, it has been recently reprinted . It is an absolute howl and simply proves that a bubble is a bubble is a bubble no matter who believes the hype. 

In this case the bubble in question was fed on oil and gas prices  which kept going up and up in the 1970s . Nobody believed they would start coming down.....and then they did.  There was also a theory that if you drilled very far dow there was a huge amount of high pressure gas down there . 

http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/061...384-4880824?_encoding=UTF8&p=S001#reader-page

When the prime suspect bank eventually crashed it brought down the 13th largest bank in the US , the 9th largest was taken over by the Fed in effect,  and severely damaged some of the rest of the top 10 .

It also shows clearly what a bunch of headless chickens (nay lemmings)  our bankers really are . 10 years after reading it along came the New Economy (.coms ) and I thought to myself  here we go again   . I was right about that too . 

In essence , once the 'man on the street' believes he cannot lose money in XXX then it is by definition a bubble . 

Thats the Tonks definition for yiz .


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## CoffeeBrew (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Gabriel said:
			
		

> Probably because no one's bothered to read it or at least deal with the jist of it. It's a very well written and well argumented piece, even if you find holes in its main points.


 
You have to remember that economists differ in their opinions too so if you find an economist at UCC that agrees with you and says we don't have a bubble then chances are there will be another economist at TCD saying that we do have a bubble and house prices have lost touch with fundamentals. 

Finding a link that agrees with your viewpoint is not an excuse for repeatedly posting the same link. I can't help feeling that if someone with a more "bearish" point of view repeatedly posted the same link on this forum that there would be a bit of scolding going on and perhaps even a new posting guideline published


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## Gabriel (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				CoffeeBrew said:
			
		

> You have to remember that economists differ in their opinions too so if you find an economist at UCC that agrees with you and says we don't have a bubble then chances are there will be another economist at TCD saying that we do have a bubble and house prices have lost touch with fundamentals.
> 
> Finding a link that agrees with your viewpoint is not an excuse for repeatedly posting the same link. I can't help feeling that if someone with a more "bearish" point of view repeatedly posted the same link on this forum that there would be a bit of scolding going on and perhaps even a new posting guideline published



Patrick Foley presents a _balanced_ point of view on the subject of a bubble. It is *not* a one sided argument. If you READ the article you'll see that!
I'm only interested in facts or balanced opinions...not in backing up my own assertions. 

To reitterate what I've already said, I do not personally believe that we are on the cusp of a price slide, but I acknowledge that given the right circumstances it could well happen.

If you want a debate on this subject then you should relish the chance to deal with the points he raises in his report. 
If all you're interested in is patting each other on the back every time someone posts an artcicle about oil price bubbles or house prices in Australia then so be it.


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## tonka (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

No Gabriel. Its just that I have been around long enough to recognise a bubble when I see one and thats all there is to it. 

One Cork economist and Dan McLoughlin will not budge de Tonk unless they feed him an awful schkelp of drink first , at their expense naturally  . I am always amenable to bribery !!!!


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## CoffeeBrew (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*



			
				Gabriel said:
			
		

> Patrick Foley presents a _balanced_ point of view on the subject of a bubble. It is *not* a one sided argument. If you READ the article you'll see that!
> I'm only interested in facts or balanced opinions...not in backing up my own assertions.


 
Gabriel, his conclusion is there is no property bubble in Ireland and house prices are based on fundementals. This is a controversial stance - not balanced. This stance coincides with your viewpoint. You may agree with this conclusion but others don't.


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## Gabriel (17 May 2005)

*Re: London Sales Slump*

There's an interesting debate on the subject on politics.ie here...

[broken link removed]


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## walk2dewater (18 May 2005)

Right now we are just at the beginning of the stagnation period in the boom/bust cycle in Ireland.  Things might change quickly though... the world economy is looking shakier by the day... and HSBC, the worlds second largest bank, is not afraid to call it as it sees it. See link...

http://www.sbe.co.uk/events/meetings/30_Nov_2004_John_Butler.pdf


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"my advice remains maintain zero speculative exposure to Irish property market (commercial or residential)" WTTW May '05


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