# The Global Property Market



## Unregistered (1 May 2005)

A new discussion forum, with a section dealing with the Irish market

[broken link removed]


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## ClubMan (1 May 2005)

From the name of the site it sounds like it may be biased towards "discussion" of only a particular opinion. On the other hand if it diverts some of the useless property price  (crash) speculation topics from this site it could be a blessing in disguise.


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## tonka (1 May 2005)

Run by someone in Bognor Regis I see . 

Whois info for, GLOBALHOUSEPRICECRASH.COM:


Registrant:
 Bognor PC Doctor Ltd
 15 Haywards Close
 Felpham
 Bognor Regis, West Sussex PO22 8HF
 UK

 Domain name: GLOBALHOUSEPRICECRASH.COM

 Administrative Contact:
    Towers, Pierre  help@bpcd.co.uk
    15 Haywards Close
    Felpham
    Bognor Regis, West Sussex PO22 8HF
    UK


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## ClubMan (1 May 2005)

tonka said:
			
		

> Run by someone in Bognor Regis I see .



Is this significant or something?


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## tonka (1 May 2005)

'Bugger Bognor" 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bognor_Regis


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## Unregistered (3 May 2005)

What is the house price to income ratio in Ireland anyone?

http://www.demographia.com/dhi-data200502.htm


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## Unregistered (3 May 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> What is the house price to income ratio in Ireland anyone?
> 
> http://www.demographia.com/dhi-data200502.htm



Brace yourself: it is in the dizzy region of 11 to 12.

In the UK, the Bank of England got jittery when this ratio reached 7.5 as this was the unaffordability trigger that was present before the last UK house price crash.  

The Government here seems paralyzed from acting in any way as the whole house of cards is getting very vulnerable.

Forget property bubble, the phrase "mega-bubble" springs to mind ;-)


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## Purple (3 May 2005)

And here we go again; another thread on how property is overvalued and is going to crash. Can the administrators put an auto answer of "no one knows" in place for all these threads?


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## ClubMan (3 May 2005)

I have raised the issue of the recent spate of property market/crash speculation threads in the _Moderators' Forum _to see if we want to do something to address them.


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## Tennant (3 May 2005)

Why ? Are the Mods scared that we might be right ? Do they have a vested interest in propping up house prices ?


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## Gabriel (3 May 2005)

The responses in here seem to be getting more and more alarmist in nature. I especially love the "you're trying to silence me/ you're all out to get me" type posts of late.

Especially this last one..."Why ? Are the Mods scared that we might be right ? Do they have a vested interest in propping up house prices ?".
Priceless 

The simple solution to this problem (although I wouldn't view it as a problem necessarily) is to amalgamate all prior posts into one and shift all new posts on this topic into that one post.


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## ClubMan (3 May 2005)

Tennant said:
			
		

> Why ? Are the Mods scared that we might be right ? Do they have a vested interest in propping up house prices ?



I have no idea what opinions the other moderators have on this topic as I have only posted it. Personally I have no vested interest other than my _PPR _and don't really worry about its day to day value since I have no plans to move for the forseeable future. I don't know most of the other moderators personally or well enough to know their business but I'm pretty sure that none of them use _AAM _as a means to prop up the Irish property market with a view to making a killing. Proud and all as we are of the site I doubt we're not yet naive or deluded enough to think that we could legitimately be credited with this much influence on the markets! However I am of the opinion that these (many!) speculative threads don't really add much to the site since answers to the questions posed are predicated on the ability to predict the future. And nobody can do that so the discussions ultimately go nowhere. In addition some of them are not even discussions but rather tit for tat posting of links to articles about property markets (often not even Ireland) without any associated commentary or expressions of an opinion. However these are simply my personal views and obviously don't necessarily represent those of the other moderators or the _AAM _community as a whole.

By the way if there was any conspiracy involved in this do you think that I have bothered to publicly mention the fact that I had referred this issue to the_ Moderators' Forum_? 



			
				Gabriel said:
			
		

> The simple solution to this problem (although I wouldn't view it as a problem necessarily) is to alamgamate all prior posts into one and shift all new posts on this topic into that one post.



Good point - hadn't considered that.


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## Unregistered (3 May 2005)

Here are some quotes from the moderator's FAQ

"it is an open forum"

"There is no restriction on who may post or who may reply to a post"

"We prefer to allow all opinions to be expressed"

"Controversy and argument are welcome."

I think we should respect these statements and continue to allow people to express their opinions openly and freely even if those opinions can sometimes make us feel insecure or uncomfortable.

Virtually all financial discussions in Ireland have a way of linking back to the Property Market. That is the reality of the situation Ireland today.
Just my 2C


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## Unregistered (3 May 2005)

Fine ! So confine it to one thread, rather than having the board cluttered with all this alarmist This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language...


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## Gabriel (3 May 2005)

I fail to see what any of the below comments have to do with this particular issue myself...

_"it is an open forum"

"There is no restriction on who may post or who may reply to a post"

"We prefer to allow all opinions to be expressed"

"Controversy and argument are welcome."_

Continuous posts on the same topic, which go around and around with inane replies about 'making people feel insecure', or 'what if we're right' or 'you're trying to censor me' adds nothing to *'The Great Financial Debates'*. If a topic is going to be discussed, it should be conducted from within one thread...as opposed to multiple ones.



> Virtually all financial discussions in Ireland have a way of linking back to the Property Market


Virtually all discussions can come back to ANY topic if you steer the conversation that way.


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## Unregistered (3 May 2005)

Reading the emotional tone of the above posts it obvious there is more to this than simply looking to neatly organize some threads. 

When a poster adds their opinion and it's referred to as "This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language" or "inane" you just know someone's getting hot under the collar.

In my opinion, these responses are a more serious misuse of AAM then a few interrelated threads.


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## Gabriel (3 May 2005)

> In my opinion, these responses are a more serious misuse of AAM then a few interrelated threads.



Reading that, in my opinion, one could easily come to the conclusion that you're merely trying to stir things up.

Many of the contributors here, myself included, do not have any great vested interest in the property market. I own my own ppr, but, much like Clubman, I have no intentions of moving. Neither do I have any intention of investing in property.
However, the quality of debate has been awful on this topic. I've seen some decent postings from people like Oysterman and pure nonsense from most of the unregistered contributors.

The emotional responses (that you refer to) are presumably as a direct result of the same point being made (rather badly), time after time after time, in multiple posts and in a manner that does not lend itself well to constructive debate.


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## tonka (3 May 2005)

Gabriel said:
			
		

> Continuous posts on the same topic, which go around and around with inane replies about 'making people feel insecure', or 'what if we're right' or 'you're trying to censor me' adds nothing to *'The Great Financial Debates'*. If a topic is going to be discussed, it should be conducted from within one thread...as opposed to multiple ones.



By the same logic it seems that there are some unregistered users around who try to kill all debate on 'whether' house prices have peaked and may go into reverse and the consequences thereof. They are probably property 'journalists' who belive that they do it in plastic bags  

It would be best IMHO if it were structured thus.  

1. A thread were started on the prospects for high ongoing price appreciation with no naysayers allowed in there at all .

2. A thread were started on the prospects for modest ongoing price appreciation with no naysayers allowed in there really .

3. A thread were started on stagnancy in absolute terms and implications thereof ...meaning depreciation in real terms and possible better deployment of capital . 

4. A thread were started on slightly falling prices and the implications for property and building only , not the wider economy. 

5. A thread were started on the wider macroeconomic implications beyond building  and property were there a large fall in property prices , not least being the effective evaporation of Billions of €s of equity from under the readers noses .    

That should keep the 'protagonists' well apart and each on its own is a great financial debate in its own right . Everything else can be deleted or merged into if a worthy thought or opinion  .

Howzat !


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## CCOVICH (3 May 2005)

Another problem is that we don't know which 'unregistered' is which, i.e. is the same person stirring things in different threads?


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## Purple (3 May 2005)

AFAIK the mods can find out if posts are all coming from the same source ccovich but since they do the moderating for free and (I assume) they all have day jobs, I would think they have better things to be doing. AAM can only really function if people behave in an adult and constructive way (myself excluded ).


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## Unregistered (3 May 2005)

I'd have to add that 

1. The really bad one-liner posts (e.g the "alarmist This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language" post above) are coming from both sides of the argument. By and large they are easily dismissed and ignored

2. A faulty premise building here is that only unregistered posters are making the "bad" posts.  By Bad here I mean working against the principles outlined in the forum FAQ. I've seen some real beauties from registered users.


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## ClubMan (3 May 2005)

Purple said:
			
		

> AFAIK the mods can find out if posts are all coming from the same source ccovich but since they do the moderating for free and (I assume) they all have day jobs, I would think they have better things to be doing.



Actually the _IP _tracking features on _vBulletin _are different to those on _ezBoard_. On _ezBoard _the administrators (myself, _Brendan _and _Zag _only) could selectively switch on _IP _addresses viewing in order to occasionally (in the case of suspected spam/nuisance posting) check what _IP _address a registered or unregistered user was posting from. With _vBulletin _there is, as far as I can see, no easy way to check the _IP _address of unregistered posters. Obviously these will be received and perhaps logged by the web server but _vBulletin _doesn't seem to expose these. And, yes, we have better things to be doing than browsing through server logs etc.

Update: my mistake - it is possible to check the _IP _addresses of unregistered users but I just didn't know where to look...


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## Unregistered (3 May 2005)

I think that if you hold the opinion that house prices in Ireland are unlikely to succumb to a substantial correction, that you will not be swayed by messages on an internet forum.  I fully appreciate that some people require more substantive evidence, absolute certainty of course could only be gained after the event.  However I feel that a little predictive reasoning is fairly harmless on the part of those of a more sceptical bent.  After all only time will tell.


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## ClubMan (3 May 2005)

Following on from my earlier contribution it has been decided to institute a .


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## CoffeeBrew (17 Jun 2005)

Hot off the press: a global update from the Economist.



> a drop in nominal prices is today more likely than after previous booms for three reasons: homes are more overvalued; inflation is much lower; and many more people have been buying houses as an investment. If house prices stop rising or start to fall, owner-occupiers will largely stay put, but over-exposed investors are more likely to sell, especially if rents do not cover their interest payments. House prices will not collapse overnight like stockmarkets—a slow puncture is more likely. But over the next five years, several countries are likely to experience price falls of 20% or more.
> 
> [\QUOTE]
> 
> ...


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## Gabriel (17 Jun 2005)

Yes...but for how many years has the Economist been making these same claims?


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## CoffeeBrew (17 Jun 2005)

Gabriel said:
			
		

> Yes...but for how many years has the Economist been making these same claims?


 
Mar 28th 2002 is when they introduced the Global Housing Index. It has now expanded to 20 countries and will track facts and metrics on these markets out until 2010 (and beyond I would expect)



> House prices will not collapse overnight like stockmarkets—a slow puncture is more likely. But over the next five years, several countries are likely to experience price falls of 20% or more.


 
I like the slow puncture analogy this appears to what's happening in the UK (so far) and it gives adaptable people room to adapt and change circumtances.


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## joe sod (17 Jun 2005)

I have just read the economist article and it has even frightened me even though I never believed in the housing bubble. Yes the economist has been warning since 2002 about rising property values worldwide. However it is the frankness of the article and the fact that it is the leading article on the front cover that is different this time. They must be convinced that the bubble is about to burst. They are even using the language of the more heretic publications like the "housing ATM" etc. When this bubble bursts it will affect alot more than "property investors". The dot com bubble was relatively limited in who was affected and it was great for the "housing investors" to have a good laugh at the foolishness of the "dot comers".


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## tonka (17 Jun 2005)

The Ecomomist had predicted about 20 of the last 7 house prices crashes in Ireland but I am firmly of the belief that they are right . Its just that this monster bubble has lasted a long time. 

Of course they have picked up on the Tonka principle which is that the slump will be caused by Muppet Investors bailing out . I'll bill ye for that lads.

They are also looking at Tonkas big rule of thumb, the YIELD

" The most compelling evidence that home prices are over-valued in many countries is the diverging relationship between house prices and rents. *The ratio of prices to rents is a sort of price/earnings ratio for the housing market.* Just as the price of a share should equal the discounted present value of future dividends, so the price of a house should reflect the future benefits of ownership, either as rental income for an investor or the rent saved by an owner-occupier."

Quite Quite . I hate being right all the time !


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## Gabriel (17 Jun 2005)

joe sod said:
			
		

> However it is the frankness of the article and the fact that it is the leading article on the front cover that is different this time. They must be convinced that the bubble is about to burst.



It's called trying to sell magazines.


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## CoffeeBrew (17 Jun 2005)

I'd like to see a front cover showing an Ostrich with its head buried in the sand. The caption could be "It'll Never Happen".

Be especially appropriate if they had an Irish edition


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## tonka (17 Jun 2005)

Gabriel. If you are going to be the token optimist around here can you please do it with good cheer and general uppititudityness. 

I find glum bulls most disconcerting !


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## Gabriel (17 Jun 2005)

I'll do my best Tonka but it's friday and I'm all hungover...


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## tonka (17 Jun 2005)

Righty Ho! . Stick to the pithy one liners and then press full engage on Monday ! 

We need a happy bull in here in the interests of balance .


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## joe sod (20 Jun 2005)

I notice the Irish media have ignored the Economist article. The independet in todays business section referred to the fact that Irish people are some of the biggest international property investors which the Economist reported on. However it failed to comment on the leading article. Is it afraid of frightening its readership with such uncompromising and frank language.


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## CoffeeBrew (20 Jun 2005)

Irish newspapers earn a huge chunk of advertising money derived from the property market. Think of the number of property supplements - domestic and foreign - plus ads for mortgages, jobs in related financials, construction etc. 

I'd imagine there is a strong motive to publish in a way that supports the whole thing. There are some exceptions of course but a lot of the time the articles read like they were written by EAs.

I suspect you will see lots of positive spin even as the market falls. 
e.g. House prices fell by 8% last year so now is a great time to buy before they start rising again .. and so on.


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## tonka (20 Jun 2005)

You may have noticed that the sky is blue over each and every picture of a house sold by SherryFitz . The sun always shines in Galway when Sherryfitz (Kavanagh)  go out and about with their digital cameras. Never a grey or dull day , no rain and no puddles anywhere.  The fella in Tuam is not so lucky i see .   

[broken link removed]

for the thumbnails . You may notice peculiar white skies in Galway , i assure you they are real. 

pages 90 91 92 and 93 in that issue but heck .........even in January ! 

Photoshop is what will keep those prices high youse lot can mark my words. Never mind them Black n Tans and their prognosticamations  .


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## CoffeeBrew (21 Jun 2005)

In the dock of Tiger Bay
On the road to Mandalay
From Bombay to Santa Fe
Over hills and far away
- Ian Dury and *The* *Blockheads*


"The worldwide appetite for buying property, whether in Paris, Los Angeles, or Bangkok, is feeding a price bubble that could burst.."

[broken link removed]


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## daltonr (4 Jul 2005)

I don't see any reason why this or any topic should be singled out for banning or tackling. Lots of topics recur over and over on AAM. How many times have you seen "I have 10K to invest" threads.

Contrary to what people seem to think the different threads often throw up some different angle on the discussion e.g. "What is the house price to income ratio in Ireland anyone?" 

This particular thread is very interesting (to me anyway).

It's pretty god damned obvious what a thread like "The Global Property Market" is goind to be about. If such threads annoy you, just ignore them.

One reason why new threads keep getting started is because Time Moves On, house prices reach new peaks, house prices rises slow, Factories close, budget's happen, comments are made about tax breaks, economists make predictions. All of these things will give rise to new opinions, new fears, new hopes and new Threads.

Just because we can't know the future doesn't stop us commentating on it. I don't hear people complaining about Sports Pundits or other journalists whose job consists of making predictions that are often completely wrong.

The whole world of investing is based in one way or another about making predictions. If speculation about property prices doesn't interest you, don't read the threads.

The most interesting predictions are actually just a case of pointing out paralells with history. Long before the Tech Bubble burst there were some excellent web sites pointing out parallels with previous bubbles. It's interesting and fun to read and discuss. If it's not your cup of tea, stop drinking it.

-Rd


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