# european wide housing shortages



## joe sod (9 Mar 2019)

There has been alot of publicity in ireland about the shortage of housing and property price increases, however this is a europe wide phenomenon. There are housing shortages all over europe even in the worst hit countries of the recession like spain and greece. My question is why is this happening and why is it happening all over europe ?


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## PaddyBloggit (9 Mar 2019)

joe sod said:


> why is it happening all over europe ?



Increase in population generally?


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## Delboy (9 Mar 2019)

Population increase, plain and simple. Mass migration


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## galway_blow_in (9 Mar 2019)

Increased concentration of economic activity in cities.

Migration from rural to urban


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## joe sod (9 Mar 2019)

Delboy said:


> Population increase, plain and simple. Mass migration



obviously the european financial system is also facilitating this by providing the liquidity and quantitive easing to allow people borrow the money to buy the properties. However if the demand from increasing populations is to be satisfied will the classical nature of european cities be destroyed by mega property construction and do we really want all this?


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## moneymakeover (9 Mar 2019)

joe sod said:


> My question is why is this happening and why is it happening all over europe ?



General shortage of capital investment after the
Great Recession?


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## RETIRED2017 (9 Mar 2019)

I have A Daughter living in Vienna in Austria Over 50% of new Built Dwellings is for a  social housing ,
My understanding is all social housing is new builds, ,so taxpayers money is used to hold prices down in austria by increasing supply,

 In Ireland taxpayers money is used to buy existing dwellings for social housing pushing up Dwelling house prices in Ireland, 

Price increases run at  1 to 2 % per year since she moved there in 2003 until she bought in 2008 in fact they went up slightly around the time the fell in Ireland,

She tells me there is a shortage of of Dwellings in Vienna also ,But the building of social housing is Dampening house prices,


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## dub_nerd (10 Mar 2019)

Two things:

Lack of creditworthy developers to build new stock;
Existing stock bought up by foreign investors (many, many billions worth of block purchases on the PPR since its 2011 inception).
Investors will milk the rental market, while also benefitting from rising prices since 2012. People desperate to "get on the ladder" have pushed prices to the limit at the entry level end of the the under-supplied market. Eventually the investors will cash in their chips, take their capital gains, and leave the property in the hands of Irish buyers in time for the next crash.


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## Protocol (10 Mar 2019)

PaddyBloggit said:


> Increase in population generally?



Not really, as EU pop not rising by much.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...p/Population_and_population_change_statistics


The main issue is a lack of supply, not growth in demand.


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## AlbacoreA (10 Mar 2019)

Most of Europe stopped building social housing for a few decades. Then you had a crash that effected building industry.


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## joe sod (10 Mar 2019)

Protocol said:


> Not really, as EU pop not rising by much.
> 
> https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...p/Population_and_population_change_statistics
> 
> ...



well if the issue is lack of supply why has it suddenly happened, why did it not happen in the 2000s, 1990s or 1980s, something else is happening, in order for ireland to solve its housing it must fully understand what is really happening


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## AlbacoreA (10 Mar 2019)

The reasons for lack of supply are old news. How are you only wondering at this now?


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## Folsom (10 Mar 2019)

joe sod said:


> My question is why is this happening and why is it happening all over europe ?



Great question. 
I would suggest it is not limited to Europe, but the US and Australia also.
Japan has been experiencing the same problem for a long time. 



PaddyBloggit said:


> Increase in population generally?



That may partially explain the problem, but considering there has been an increase in population generally since the dawn of humanity, it falls short of why the issue is so pronounced in recent years.



Delboy said:


> Population increase, plain and simple. Mass migration



Population increase has been with us since the dawn of time, as has mass migration. 
The USA can record the largest migration levels ever over a fifty year period from 1860's to 1910's. Rather than causing a housing shortage, it generated so much economic activity as to found the platform for the greatest economic power in the history of humankind.




galway_blow_in said:


> Increased concentration of economic activity in cities.
> 
> Migration from rural to urban



This is a major factor. The economic crash resulted in a centralisation of financial power toward capital cities. 
This is natural. Those that _control _the wealth exercise more power over those who _create _the wealth. 
They typically congregate in centres of power, like capital cities.



joe sod said:


> obviously the european financial system is also facilitating this by providing the liquidity and quantitive easing to allow people borrow the money to buy the properties.



Absolutely, couldn't agree more. QE was a tool to restore asset prices to their pre-crash levels. After which, value would subsequently "trickle down" to the rest who re-generate economic activity. 
Unfortunately, there is simply too much personal debt 



moneymakeover said:


> General shortage of capital investment after the
> Great Recession?



True also. The lack of investment is natural when the economic doctrine has collapsed.



RETIRED2017 said:


> In Ireland taxpayers money is used to buy existing dwellings for social housing pushing up Dwelling house prices in Ireland



This is also part of the problem.



dub_nerd said:


> Investors will milk the rental market



That would imply that rents are pitched at maximum obtainable rents relative to quality of service? 



joe sod said:


> well if the issue is lack of supply why has it suddenly happened, why did it not happen in the 2000s, 1990s or 1980s, something else is happening, in order for ireland to solve its housing it must fully understand what is really happening



Great point. 

I would suggest that what is happening in Ireland is not unique. As OP stated this issue is EU wide. I would suggest that it is US wide too.

To understand what is happening , is, in my opinion, a deliberate policy to treat housing as a commodity to buy and sell for profit. 
Rather than a social provision that all people need as a necessity.


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## dub_nerd (10 Mar 2019)

Folsom said:


> To understand what is happening , is, in my opinion, a deliberate policy to treat housing as a commodity to buy and sell for profit.
> Rather than a social provision that all people need as a necessity.



But we have had that policy since long before the current shortage, so it seems unlikely to be the explanation.


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## Leper (10 Mar 2019)

In coastal Spain (holiday resorts), there is no shortage of accommodation and nearly every road has apartments/duplexes/villas/houses for sale or repossessed. It is the same in the rural areas. In fact property was not been cheaper there since the 1990's. But, the locals can't afford to buy. The holiday home owners can't afford to sell at losses (even still) of 30% (at least) on their initial outlay in 2005. With the amount of Brits there Brexit has become a leading factor suppressing prices even after the recession. The Brits are neither buying or selling, just waiting and waiting. A few Brits are speculating though and buying at the upper end of the market in the hope of a relatively quick killing.

In major cities though, there are housing shortages. Strangely, property rentals in coastal Spain have never been dearer in the high season but still depressed in the winter/spring months.


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## galway_blow_in (10 Mar 2019)

Leper said:


> In coastal Spain (holiday resorts), there is no shortage of accommodation and nearly every road has apartments/duplexes/villas/houses for sale or repossessed. It is the same in the rural areas. In fact property was not been cheaper there since the 1990's. But, the locals can't afford to buy. The holiday home owners can't afford to sell at losses (even still) of 30% (at least) on their initial outlay in 2005. With the amount of Brits there Brexit has become a leading factor suppressing prices even after the recession. The Brits are neither buying or selling, just waiting and waiting. A few Brits are speculating though and buying at the upper end of the market in the hope of a relatively quick killing.
> 
> In major cities though, there are housing shortages. Strangely, property rentals in coastal Spain have never been dearer in the high season but still depressed in the winter/spring months.



Resort locations in Spain saw big falls during the recession  this didn't happen in Madrid, Barcelona etc 

Those resort locations are more fickle due to reliance on foreign visitors


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## AlbacoreA (10 Mar 2019)

dub_nerd said:


> But we have had that policy since long before the current shortage, so it seems unlikely to be the explanation.



It has taken a long time to come to fruition. Also it's compounded by other factors. Perfect storm of policies. 

For example conflicting policies of outsourcing social  housing to private landlords while at the same time driving private landlords from the market. 

Centralising services in the capital and allowing uncontrolled immigration when the services are unable to cope with the numbers. They are creating pressure instead of relieving it.


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## AlbacoreA (10 Mar 2019)

Everyone I know who invested in property in Spain or similar or Eastern Europe has lost on it at best and many are caught in legal wrangles or scams.


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## AlbacoreA (10 Mar 2019)

While there is housing crisis in many countries it's not always for the same reason.


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## Folsom (10 Mar 2019)

dub_nerd said:


> But we have had that policy since long before the current shortage, so it seems unlikely to be the explanation.



True, but it also ran in tandem with local authority social housing provision. 
In my view, LA budgets for housing were effectively outsourced to private developers to build social housing. When the crash came, there were no developers to build and LA house building structures were depleted. 
I don't know if this is the case in other countries but I dont believe the housing crisis that is sweeping Europe and US is simply a coincidence.


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## galway_blow_in (10 Mar 2019)

AlbacoreA said:


> Everyone I know who invested in property in Spain or similar or Eastern Europe has lost on it at best and many are caught in legal wrangles or scams.



Eastern Europe is very different to Spain, corruption is rampant


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## seamless (10 Mar 2019)

AlbacoreA said:


> Everyone I know who invested in property in Spain or similar or Eastern Europe has lost on it at best and many are caught in legal wrangles or scams.



Not my experience - sold in Eastern Europe after 15 years ownership and made a small profit. The process was totally transparent and highly efficient.


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## AlbacoreA (10 Mar 2019)

Maybe that's normal I have no idea. 

Our own system in Ireland is pretty shabby.


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## AlbacoreA (10 Mar 2019)

Folsom said:


> True, but it also ran in tandem with local authority social housing provision.
> In my view, LA budgets for housing were effectively outsourced to private developers to build social housing. When the crash came, there were no developers to build and LA house building structures were depleted.
> I don't know if this is the case in other countries but I dont believe the housing crisis that is sweeping Europe and US is simply a coincidence.



There is a study from someone in UCD about the decline in govt investment in social housing stock in other countries. I think Austria is one of the exceptions.

I think you are right there was a move away from housing as basic provision in a society. In particular at the affordable end. If you are wealthy you can still buy what you want.


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## joe sod (10 Mar 2019)

Folsom said:


> True, but it also ran in tandem with local authority social housing provision.
> In my view, LA budgets for housing were effectively outsourced to private developers to build social housing. When the crash came, there were no developers to build and LA house building structures were depleted.
> I don't know if this is the case in other countries but I dont believe the housing crisis that is sweeping Europe and US is simply a coincidence.



Is there not a case for local authorities to employ builders directly, I think that is what happened before when the bulk of council housing was built. I mean employ builders as local authority staff, it would be attractive for builders and there is a huge amount of work to be done even just renovating derelict council housing.


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## AlbacoreA (10 Mar 2019)

I imagine it will be impossible to get builders and tradesmen considering they are in big demand at the moment.


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## Folsom (10 Mar 2019)

joe sod said:


> Is there not a case for local authorities to employ builders directly, I think that is what happened before when the bulk of council housing was built. I mean employ builders as local authority staff, it would be attractive for builders and there is a huge amount of work to be done even just renovating derelict council housing.



Yes, and that is what the government is having to revert to. But because the building of social housing was effectively outsourced to private sector, budgets for building were slashed. 
The government is playing catch-up now, having to give additional monies to house building budgets.


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## cremeegg (10 Mar 2019)

joe sod said:


> Is there not a case for local authorities to employ builders directly,



The public sector is struggling to employ people in many areas where it is currently active. Nurses and teachers for example, I cannot see it suddenly getting its act together to employ builders.

There are many areas of economic activity which find it difficult to employ people. Some sectors find innovative solutions, imported workers on UK farms, slaves on fishing vessels.

For capable and ambitious people there are many new economic opportunities, far more than there used to be. Capable and ambitious people don't go into building, or let us face it teaching.


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## BilliamD75 (10 Mar 2019)

That's a bit harsh, I am  a capable and ambitious builder for many years, however to to excessive regulation and taxation have decided enough is enough, anybody can become a building contractor in the morning and tender for contracts. The sector needs to be regulated.


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## RETIRED2017 (10 Mar 2019)

It is all down to planning ,I would say there are more low Income workers Employed in Ireland in 2019 than ever before,

What is your take on wages levels, The problem Ireland has We have a lot of  high earners not worth what they are getting ,If they were doing the same job overseas they would be on lower money, We have lots of UK Farm Syndrome Type operators everywhere you look in Ireland,[/QUOTE]


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## RETIRED2017 (10 Mar 2019)

BilliamD75 said:


> That's a bit harsh, I am  a capable and ambitious builder for many years, however to to excessive regulation and taxation have decided enough is enough, anybody can become a building contractor in the morning and tender for contracts. The sector needs to be regulated.


 Cottage Industries of  high earners have sprung using regulation to choked the life out of people who drove progress in the past,

In other words everywhere you look you will find we have employed every kind of over paid under worked so called expert to make sure nothing can gets done without there say so,

It is supposed to work the other way round, we employ people to put/throw a spanner in the works,


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## Delboy (10 Mar 2019)

Folsom said:


> Population increase has been with us since the dawn of time, as has mass migration.
> The USA can record the largest migration levels ever over a fifty year period from 1860's to 1910's. Rather than causing a housing shortage, it generated so much economic activity as to found the platform for the greatest economic power in the history of humankind.


It hasn't been with 'us' in Ireland before. Especially over the past 15 years.
And remember under this 2040 plan, another 1m people on the Island, most of whom will inevitably end up in the greater Dublin area.


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## RETIRED2017 (10 Mar 2019)

Delboy said:


> It hasn't been with 'us' in Ireland before. Especially over the past 15 years.
> And remember under this 2040 plan, another 1m people on the Island, most of whom will inevitably end up in the greater Dublin area.



The Country has being  operating  like a Ponzi Scheme for some time 2040 is an attempt to extend it for as long as possible,

I remember looking at the Austrian plan if I remember correctly they have around 8.5 million at present there plan is to grow a lot slower they will avoid the kind of problems we are having at present,

 we are adding lots of people on low flat lifetime wages needing lots of tax transfers,


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## Folsom (10 Mar 2019)

Delboy said:


> It hasn't been with 'us' in Ireland before. Especially over the past 15 years.
> And remember under this 2040 plan, another 1m people on the Island, most of whom will inevitably end up in the greater Dublin area.



I agree population growth is a factor, but it doesn't explain why there is a housing crisis, at the same time, across many countries.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (11 Mar 2019)

Folsom said:


> I agree population growth is a factor, but it doesn't explain why there is a housing crisis, at the same time, across many countries.



It's a fair point. House-building is sluggish everywhere except Germany, even in places where prices have returned to pre-crisis levels.

I think building codes and planning law (pretty much ratcheting up everywhere) have something to do with it. It can't all be down to bank lending.


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## odyssey06 (11 Mar 2019)

There's a few things going on at a general level...
Population profiles have changed - smaller households and less 2.4 children means requirement for more separate units. Migration patterns feed into this also creating surges in demand.
Building codes and planning laws - new builds are more expensive and more land is closed off to development.
Monetary policy - QE and focus on fight against inflation creates a distortion favouring asset holders versus wage earners. 
Government policy - stepping back from actually building housing.

Specifically in Dublin, we shoot ourselves in the foot with over zealous regulation in certain areas(such as heights and apartments, banning bedsits) while being useless at protecting buildings actually worth protecting, and making best use of state owned land:
[broken link removed]

_Almost half of all County Dublin residential development land is State-controlled and between NAMA and Local Authorities there is the capacity for 71,425 dwellings (1,212 hectares). These figures exclude holdings owned by the Housing Agency and other State and Semi-state bodies. In Dublin City three out of every four vacant residential zoned sites are either owned by Dublin City Council or NAMA debtors._


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## NoRegretsCoyote (11 Mar 2019)

odyssey06 said:


> Monetary policy - QE and focus on fight against inflation creates a distortion favouring asset holders versus wage earners.



But the whole point of QE was to make money cheap, so that people would invest more in (presumably) new housebuilding.

This has worked. Retail interest rates are - by any measure - lower than 2006 in Ireland and incomes are about the same.

Yet a dramatically lower number of dwellings are being built.


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## odyssey06 (11 Mar 2019)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> But the whole point of QE was to make money cheap, so that people would invest more in (presumably) new housebuilding. This has worked. Retail interest rates are - by any measure - lower than 2006 in Ireland and incomes are about the same.
> Yet a dramatically lower number of dwellings are being built.



Doesn't seem to have worked then? Wherever the cheap money is going, it seems to be favouring purchase of assets - then watch them rise in value due to cheap money; than to new construction.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (11 Mar 2019)

Newly-built houses are assets too


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## odyssey06 (11 Mar 2019)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> Newly-built houses are assets too



Fair point! But the money doesn't seem to be flowing there. Seems to be less risky to just buy existing asset, and watch it rise in value due to the inflationary effects on assets of QE.


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## RETIRED2017 (11 Mar 2019)

odyssey06 said:


> Fair point! But the money doesn't seem to be flowing there. Seems to be less risky to just buy existing asset, and watch it rise in value due to the inflationary effects on assets of QE.


You have hit the nail on the head ,
 Just to give you an example, Have a look at the old Allsops auctions of property sold in your area,

 I bought around 2012 lots of the property sold around that time is still idle where I live ,I travel around Ireland quite a lot same thing happening anywhere I go, a few weeks ago I was staying in a large irish town,

 I had time on my hands I just checked to see was the same thing happened there as well,
  no one living in most of the property's sold around that time ,


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## AlbacoreA (11 Mar 2019)

Folsom said:


> I agree population growth is a factor, but it doesn't explain why there is a housing crisis, at the same time, across many countries.



There isn't one cause. There's a perfect storm of causes.


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## AlbacoreA (11 Mar 2019)

odyssey06 said:


> Fair point! But the money doesn't seem to be flowing there. Seems to be less risky to just buy existing asset, and watch it rise in value due to the inflationary effects on assets of QE.



Its too expensive to build unless there is a decent return.


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## joe sod (11 Mar 2019)

I think a big issue is Labour, a lot less young guys willing to slave on building sites like in the past (in fairness working conditions and safety have improved a lot). During the boom we got a once off injection of capable willing labour from eastern Europe, that has really dried up now. The hardened wizened builder is now a thing of the past, the guys that built Britain etc are gone and not coming back.

Labour was not as heavily taxed during the boom, no usc etc,  so guys were willing to work hard and earn a good wage. Today young guys are not willing to do hard physical jobs and then see the government cream off a lot of it in high taxation. Maybe there is a case for a favourable taxation system for physically demanding jobs, other countries do this.


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## AlbacoreA (11 Mar 2019)

This suggests construction cost are around 43% of the total costs.


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## dub_nerd (11 Mar 2019)

joe sod said:


> I think a big issue is Labour, a lot less young guys willing to slave on building sites like in the past...



It's an industry crying out for modernisation. There are plenty of new materials, better insulation etc., but the actual approach to erecting a house doesn't seem to have changed much for a hundred years. Why isn't there more pre-fabrication or, better still, robotic construction. There have been numerous demos of two new construction methods: 3D-printing of houses and automated block laying. They both potentially carry benefits of reduced cost and construction time, while increasing design flexibility and moving away from the rows of identikit houses that make our urban landscapes so drab.


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## looptheloop (11 Mar 2019)

As a former construction worker , I can agree with these points.
I was 30 yrs on sites around Ireland and UK. The last real pool of construction workers left school in the eighties. During the boom the shortfall was met by Eastern Europeans. Like myself, most of these guys are in their 50's and older and the lack of Health and Safety standards in the industry has left a lot of them crippled. myself included.
Look around you at the young people and youth of today.The intelligent ones head for college.The rest just aren't up to the demands of construction work. You can't really carry 9 inch blocks up a ladder and look at your smartphone all day!!!


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## AlbacoreA (11 Mar 2019)

dub_nerd said:


> ... potentially carry benefits of reduced cost and construction time...



Potentially isn't enough.


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## joe sod (11 Mar 2019)

@dubnerd, I think construction will be the last industry to have robotics to any meaningful extent. It's simply too hard to replicate what happens on a building site to robots. Robots like clean pristine environments and thats where you generally see them, not the dirt wet and grime of a building site. No matter how good you are if you break ground in this Irish weather you are going to get muck and grime. They also need predictable work practices which you don't get in construction. 
In fairness there has been a lot of innovation in construction but you are still dealing with difficult materials , in a word construction is just difficult.


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## AlbacoreA (11 Mar 2019)

If you look at how farming has modernised, building is the exact opposite. It has resisted change from all levels. 
Its also full of chancers and there is very little regulation and enforcement. 

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...oblems-with-celtic-tiger-apartments-1.3812807


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## AlbacoreA (11 Mar 2019)

joe sod said:


> @...but you are still dealing with difficult materials , in a word construction is just difficult.



Difficult people also.


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## Leo (11 Mar 2019)

joe sod said:


> It's simply too hard to replicate what happens on a building site to robots.



I think the core issue is much of the fabrication should be carried out off-site in factories.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (11 Mar 2019)

Leo said:


> I think the core issue is much of the fabrication should be carried out off-site in factories.


Unfortunately, that's decades ahead of the typical Irish developer.


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## Folsom (11 Mar 2019)

AlbacoreA said:


> There isn't one cause. There's a perfect storm of causes.



I would agree with that. But I would also put front and central to that the economic policies adopted that effectively outsourced the provision of housing to the private sector as a commodity to buy and sell for profit, to the detriment of the provision of housing as a social need.


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## dub_nerd (11 Mar 2019)

AlbacoreA said:


> Potentially isn't enough.



Correct. The advantages need to be demonstrated in the real world or it will not fly.



joe sod said:


> @dubnerd, I think construction will be the last industry to have robotics to any meaningful extent. It's simply too hard to replicate what happens on a building site to robots. Robots like clean pristine environments and thats where you generally see them, not the dirt wet and grime of a building site. No matter how good you are if you break ground in this Irish weather you are going to get muck and grime. They also need predictable work practices which you don't get in construction.
> In fairness there has been a lot of innovation in construction but you are still dealing with difficult materials , in a word construction is just difficult.



I don't agree with that. We're not talking about the robots in the clean room of a semiconductor FAB. Robots also work in grimy industrial environments and have taken over operations in the world's biggest dockyards. They go down mines, build tunnels, operate underwater etc. etc. Building construction isn't intrinsically difficult, it's just insufficiently modularised. You could have said the same for car, aeroplane, or electronics construction back in the 1960s. Then we invented integrated circuits, modular wiring harnesses, wave soldering machines, laser spot welding etc. etc. To a certain extent, the processes are changed to fit the robots.



NoRegretsCoyote said:


> Unfortunately, that's decades ahead of the typical Irish developer.



You're right, I think it's a question of mindset. Eventually someone will come along with the new technology and eat everybody else's lunch.


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## AlbacoreA (11 Mar 2019)

I think if you look at all the economic policies there's a consistent pattern to increasing value for investors, especially external larger investors. 
Its real boom and bust tactics, always seeking short term gain at the expense of long term sustainability. Making the fast buck.


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## AlbacoreA (11 Mar 2019)

I think also the problem its an industry with a largely poorly skilled labour force. There is wide range of ability within trades. A huge resistance to change.

Automation requires a level of skillets,  standards and precision and professionalism.  that the building industry isn't able to deliver except on premium projects. 

Trying to get simple things done right by tradesmen is torture.


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## joe sod (12 Mar 2019)

AlbacoreA said:


> I think also the problem its an industry with a largely poorly skilled labour force. There is wide range of ability within trades. A huge resistance to change.
> 
> Automation requires a level of skillets,  standards and precision and professionalism.  that the building industry isn't able to deliver except on premium projects.
> 
> Trying to get simple things done right by tradesmen is torture.



Yes, but again it's not just an Irish issue it's world-wide, maybe in places like Dubai there might be better ways of building the big skyscrapers, but then they also use slave labour from poor Asian countries. 
I see construction workers doing very tricky work in old  cities in Spain and Portugal , where you can't get heavy construction equipment in, it's all Labour intensive work and probably not work that would be done in Ireland due to lack of willing labour. So "backwardness" in construction is not just an Irish issue


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## AlbacoreA (12 Mar 2019)

You've been told a few times now that the same problem shortage housing, can be caused by different reasons in different countries. 

Its the same with building. Its not done the same in every country. Not all building is low skilled even here, some of it is highly skilled. 
The fact remains that our housing is poorly build, standards and enforcement ignored. Its an issue here. Who cares about anywhere else. 

Lack of willing labour simply means no ones willing to pay enough to attract people to do. Pay enough and you'll get people. 
People will travel the world for the right money. Especially in construction. So if there's a shortage its a money issue.
Money doesn't simply mean wages. 

Saying "its not just an Irish issue" is meaningless.


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