# Formation of new government



## Dan Murray (28 Feb 2016)

Just trying to get my head around the emerging results and need some help please! Whilst the numbers suggest that the most plausible coalition is for FF & FG to hop into bed together, both parties have said that they would not so do during the campaign.

So a few questions....
- Should they break their campaign promises?
- If they do break their promises, why did they make them in the first place, given the figures now emerging (in terms of combined seats) were broadly predictable?
- And if they don't coalesce, do we have another election?


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## PaddyBloggit (28 Feb 2016)

No
Because they lied ... they'll say anything to get elected
Possibly


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## llgon (28 Feb 2016)

If Enda and Micheal stepped down as party leaders prior to its formation I think a FF/FG coalition would have credibility.  It is what the country has voted for and the leaders would have to be held accountable for promises made in the election campaign.  However that's not the culture here.


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## Dermot (28 Feb 2016)

The consensus amongst a lot of politicians and media is that the people have voted for change.  The people have voted to oust the present Government.  Give the people what they voted for and let them see the reality of what they voted for. It might work. It is now up to all to all the politicians who are neither in FG or Labour to form a Government and deliver on their promises (and not break any of them).  The larger opposition parties cannot sit on their hands (protesting) for the next so many years waiting until they become the largest party before they will go into Government.  It is time to stop the tactical excuses and get into Government and test your policies and see how the work under scrutiny etc.
The country is in a better place overall than it was 5 years ago (not dispersed very well regionally) so there is a good opportunity to grow the country at a faster rate than in the last 5 years (albeit from a bad place) and hopefully a better life across the board.
Alas I am worried that this may not happen.


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## Purple (28 Feb 2016)

If the Shinners are the largest party in some sort of loony left bag of crazy all sorts I can't see the company I work in surviving as we are export focused and our key people are high skilled highly paid. They will leave if an extra 19% of their marginal income is taken in income tax. 
An increase of 7% on income tax is equal to 19% of what's left when the marginal rate is already 53%.


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## Dermot (28 Feb 2016)

Purple said:


> If the Shinners are the largest party in some sort of loony left bag of crazy all sorts I can't see the company I work in surviving as we are export focused and our key people are high skilled highly paid. They will leave if an extra 19% of their marginal income is taken in income tax.
> An increase of 7% on income tax is equal to 19% of what's left when the marginal rate is already 53%.



I am really agreeing with you.  I am really worried where we are going.  We cannot afford to get into another mess again. There is no Utopia no matter what politicians think.  

A poster stated on another thread that he got €450000 for a 3 bed from cluid as did 2 others in his estate.  This type of solution is madness.


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## Joe_90 (28 Feb 2016)

Not really a party political person but always vote.

Despite what FG and FF have said I think they will form some kind of "arrangement".  Not sure Enda will survive but a deal where FF insist on abolition of Irish Water would present FG with a get out of jail free card. 

FG could present the abolition of Irish water as a sacrifice that they would make for the sake of the country.  At the end of the day what is the real difference between FF and FG in 2016.


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## Cervelo (28 Feb 2016)

Joe_90 said:


> Not really a party political person but always vote.
> 
> Despite what FG and FF have said I think they will form some kind of "arrangement".  Not sure Enda will survive but a deal where FF insist on abolition of Irish Water would present FG with a get out of jail free card.
> 
> FG could present the abolition of Irish water as a sacrifice that they would make for the sake of the country.  At the end of the day what is the real difference between FF and FG in 2016.



Except for the fact that Willie O'Dea has said that FF are not getting rid of the water charges only suspending them for 5 years.
An election promise broken before they have even formed a government.


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## Leper (28 Feb 2016)

Willie O'Dea is one of those whose one-liners always keep the people entertained.  Now he is at it again.  I suppose it is never the wrong time to do the right thing.


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## Purple (28 Feb 2016)

I hope water charges are kept, not just because everyone should have to pay for water beyond a certain allowance but because of the rag bag bunch of opportunists and idiots who opposed them.


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## so-crates (29 Feb 2016)

Getting rid of water charges is a daft non-starter. We signed up to the EU directive on the matter in 2000, we were supposed to have implemented a system by 2010, we finally got around to kicking it all off in 2015. If we go back on that now, we will be in breach of the directive. The drivel spouted by FF/SF/AAA-PBP and all the other assorted populists is just that. They'll have to eat their words. No doubt the FF plan is to set up a "new" company - let's call it Uisce Fáil - TUPE the whole shebang over to that, pay an exhorbitant and completely pointless amount of money to rebrand and then give a 5 year moratorium on water charges to the domestic user while Uisce Fáil fixes the pipes (which  clearly is THE biggest problem ). SF will do pretty well the exact same thing - only it will cost more and be called Uisce Féin (which will be Gerry's idea).


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## Leo (29 Feb 2016)

so-crates said:


> Getting rid of water charges is a daft non-starter. We signed up to the EU directive on the matter in 2000, we were supposed to have implemented a system by 2010, we finally got around to kicking it all off in 2015.



I'm amazed none of the parties of the 31st Dail made more of that directive. I'm not sure what the penalties of non-compliance are, but no one has come up with so much as an idea how we might comply while abolishing charges.


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## Ceist Beag (29 Feb 2016)

Cervelo said:


> Except for the fact that Willie O'Dea has said that FF are not getting rid of the water charges only suspending them for 5 years.
> An election promise broken before they have even formed a government.


Not true. This was their position as per their manifesto so there is no broken promise here.


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## cork (29 Feb 2016)

FF made a promise not to enter a coalition with FG. They made this clear to the electorate.

Likewise FG also ruled this out.

Should they back - track?

Absolutely not.


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## Ceist Beag (29 Feb 2016)

so who should govern in your opinion cork?


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## Gerry Canning (29 Feb 2016)

1. FG will concede somewhat on USC.
2. FF will concede on Irish Water , ie retain it in some fashion as a national water board.(I sensed that Irish Water per se, was not the main issue ,just the mishandling of it made it very voter toxic)
3. Both will agree to a fast track social/house building.
4. Both will set a Dail Panel to sort Health.I think all people accept that health needs more than one term and should be de-politicised were possible.



In so doing , most deputies, not just FG/FF  have got a mechanism to sort the big issues. 



It will then be up to FF to (support) on a case by case basis FG in Government.
The rest surely can,t overly argue , can they?



Might even work for us all.


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## Cervelo (29 Feb 2016)

I don't know about the manifesto but MM clearly said to Brian Dobson on 6:1 news that Irish water would be dissolved and that the water charges would also be scrapped and funding found from other areas, now he did say he can only speak for the life time of his government and not for future governments.
He clearly said that the people of Ireland have enough to pay for and water charges will be gone not suspended.
Why politicians have to consistently give misleading answers is something that discombobulates me.


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## thedaddyman (29 Feb 2016)

Can't see FF jumping into bed with FG. Clear risk of a split in FF as a result with the likes of O'Cuiv very anti anything to do with FG. I don't think Martin will run the risk of them setting up a "real" FF or something similar


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## Kimmagegirl (29 Feb 2016)

Watching one TV interview over the past few days a FF spokesperson snapped at another panelist. The first thing that hit me was Oh! This is the old FF arrogance showing itself again. This was when the outcome of the election was good for FF. If another election is called sooner rather than later I would suggest to FF that they watch their big mouths otherwise their recent election wins will all be reversed if there is another election.


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## Betsy Og (29 Feb 2016)

I think a smart thing for FG to do would be to say they will work with FF. Either FF will agree or if they dont then FG gets to blame the sorry mess on FF.

My views are:

1. FG voters voted for stable government, not that many would be appalled by a FF coalition
2. The flight of the left from any notion of being is power is hilarious to watch, they know the fairytales end the moment they are in power and electoral wipeout swiftly follows - SF might as well be abstentionist for all they are going to do. They just want to keep building the party....once its big enough then personal property will be abolised and we'll invade the North.....
3. If FG outwardly (at least) look for the FF coalition & it doesnt happen then I think they shouldnt fear another election. There was always going to be a swing back for FF who were artificially low, FG still have had their 2nd best result ever - ok its down a lot on last time but was always going to be. Maybe next time the voters will see there's no point voting for the fantasists of the left.
4. FG should put Inda out to pasture.
5. Having SF as leaders of the opposition could be dangerous but their "free sweets" act can only go on so long.


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## cork (29 Feb 2016)

Ceist Beag said:


> so who should govern in your opinion cork?



I think that we need a government.  Not alone that - government needs to last a term.

I don't think FG/FF are compatible. I think all the TDs need to talk and tease this out.

Hard to know - what structures would be needed in a multi person agreement.


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## Purple (29 Feb 2016)

If FF went in with the FG then the Republican wing of FF would defect to the Shinners. That's if Gerry resigned and Many Lou, former FF herself, was in charge. That would cost FF 6-8 seats.


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## Dr.Debt (29 Feb 2016)

I think Micheal Martin has his own master plan and he certainly has his eye on the prize.

During this current election campaign MM consistently said that he would not enter government with FG or SF yet his lust for power  is unquestionable. He also talks incessantly about the need for reform in Irish politics and the need to do things differently.

I think what we will see in the coming days is the Micheal Martin PR machine springing into action once again. He is going to ask
every newly elected TD in the dail (with possible exceptions for Kenny / Adams) to support him in his bid to become taoiseach.
I think he will be asking individual TDs within FG and SF to support him also. His timing is good as nobody really wants Kenny back
I also think that his plan will be fully executed before Kenny even starts to understand what he is about. If he succeeds with this, he will be elected as Taoiseach in the next dail. If he fails we will be back to a second election but I think Martin is hoping that when the 2nd election comes around that the majority of people will accept by then that Martin is the only realistic choice as leader and vote accordingly.In short MM is already canvassing and posturing for the 2nd election although this might not be so apparent to some. In fact its possible that he was always plotting for a 2nd election.

Disclaimer : I have nothing at all to do with Fianna Fail. Just my own observation and prediction of what is about to unfold.


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## Purple (29 Feb 2016)

Dr.Debt said:


> During this current election campaign MM consistently said that he would not enter government with FG or SF yet *his lust for power is unquestionable*.





Dr.Debt said:


> Disclaimer : I have nothing at all to do with Fianna Fail. Just my own observation and prediction of what is about to unfold.


 Given the first line above I didn't think you did have a connection with FF.


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## thedaddyman (29 Feb 2016)

I presume the first thing that needs to happen is the election of the Ceann Comhraile. On the basis that CC is expected to go with the Govt in a tied vote, I wonder if history will be made and an "opposition" CC elected.?

If FG + Lab have 58 votes they need to find another 21 votes. the Healy Raes and Lowry can be sorted, as can potentially the Independent alliance. That leaves them needing 14. they'll make a big play for the Greens and the SD's (although personally I think both would be daft to enter into any formal arrangement), that leaves them needing 8 and I'd say they could make a good play for some of the other independents

Hence FG have a reasonable change of forming a minority govt. If FF adopt a Tallaght strategy then then could survive for a number of months. FF would only bring them down for the "right" reason, which is likely to be the budget or a failure to do something radical around Irish Water or Health.

I'd say an autumn or early winter election is on the cards.


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## Duke of Marmalade (29 Feb 2016)

It's either the Grand Alliance or another GE.  FF are totally in the driving seat.  They will be making a strategic call on the best option for them and that is not accusing them of being cynical, every party believes that theirs and the country's interest are identical.

IMHO it is unquestionably in FF's interest to have another GE and quick.  Reasons:

1) FG punched above their weight in this election.  Some brilliant vote management, the Labour transfer pact and a Ceann Comhairle thrown in for free.  At almost the same % vote as FF they have a bloated seat bonus. These are unlikely to play out in a re-run.

2)  SF had a relatively poor result and FF were the main beneficiaries.  If FF wait too long SF might fix their biggest handicap - their leader.

3)  The alternative of keeping FG in power for a while either formally or informally  can hardly be enhancing to FF's future election outcomes.

So if I were a FF strategist I would be plotting for a re-run as quick as possible but trying to be seen as not to blame for it.


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## Ceist Beag (29 Feb 2016)

That won't wash with the public Duke. If another election is called quickly there is no way the public will accept this happily and all parties will get some blame but I think FF and FG risk the biggest portion of the blame. Even if this does happen I don't think even the most optimistic FF supporter would seriously expect much change other than a swap in the numbers between themselves and FG which would leave us in pretty much the same position again. I hope and think that the parties will take a long hard considered look at the results in this election before even starting to think about what can be done to form a government. Any talk of a quick return to the electorate is highly risky and I can't see any party with the appetite for that.


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## thedaddyman (29 Feb 2016)

Can't see SF fixing the issue over the leader in the short term. Think they will be keeping him in until the next presidential election. I also can't help wondering if the Northies decided to send him down south out of their way. They also have an issue that whilst everyone down south assumes Mary Lou will be the new leader, not sure the Northies would see it that way, especially given her lack of involvement in "the struggle"


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## Duke of Marmalade (29 Feb 2016)

Ceist Beag said:


> That won't wash with the public Duke. If another election is called quickly there is no way the public will accept this happily and all parties will get some blame but I think FF and FG risk the biggest portion of the blame. Even if this does happen I don't think even the most optimistic FF supporter would seriously expect much change other than a swap in the numbers between themselves and FG which would leave us in pretty much the same position again. I hope and think that the parties will take a long hard considered look at the results in this election before even starting to think about what can be done to form a government. Any talk of a quick return to the electorate is highly risky and I can't see any party with the appetite for that.


I agree that is about all they could hope for.  No one is going to sweep into a commanding position any time soon, so the next Government will be a FF/FG arrangement either formal or informal.  But the psychological pieces are not yet in play for that.  The current numbers say Michael Martin and FF would have to be the junior partner.  If I were FF I would never accept that (purely at the narrow strategic level of self interest) and indeed the FF grass roots resistance as personified by Dillie O'Wee seems very strong.  Now a situation with MM and FF in the driving seat and FG with a new leader might just see FG accept the junior role. 





thedaddyman said:


> Can't see SF fixing the issue over the leader in the short term. Think they will be keeping him in until the next presidential election. I also can't help wondering if the Northies decided to send him down south out of their way. They also have an issue that whilst everyone down south assumes Mary Lou will be the new leader, not sure the Northies would see it that way, especially given her lack of involvement in "the struggle"


Not any time soon but maybe within two years, certainly a disincentive to FF limping along in a Tallaght  (2) strategy for that sort of time frame.


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## Ceist Beag (29 Feb 2016)

Another bizarre quote from SF


> Outgoing Donegal North East TD *Pádraig MacLochlainn* of Sinn Féin has said that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael should form a government because it would mean *a right wing government facing a left wing opposition.*
> 
> He said that this would be healthy and *in the best interests *of all Irish people.


So to summarise, left wing party member says right wing government is in the best interests of all Irish people!


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## Purple (29 Feb 2016)

Ceist Beag said:


> Another bizarre quote from SF
> 
> So to summarise, left wing party member says right wing government is in the best interests of all Irish people!


By the standards of developed countries around the world it's a major stretch to describe either FF or FG as right wing.
We have a choice of left wing or very left wing.


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## jim (29 Feb 2016)

Ceist Beag, I think his point was that a right wing gove versus a left wing opposition was in the interest of the people - not that a right wing gove by itself was in the interest of the people - probably still a bizarre quote though!


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## Ceist Beag (29 Feb 2016)

Purple said:


> By the standards of developed countries around the world it's a major stretch to describe either FF or FG as right wing.
> We have a choice of left wing or very left wing.


Point taken Purple but it just highlights the strange logic of SF that they are coming out claiming that a FF/FG coalition government would be in the best interests of the Irish people when SF object to almost every proposal in the FG and FF manifestos! SF are already in canvas mode for the next election it seems...


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## odyssey06 (29 Feb 2016)

If FF go into coalition with FG, it will last for the 5 years... If FF stand back and allow a FG minority government to form, it will be with the intention of bringing them down in 6 - 12 months when it suits FF and they think they have a chance of a clear run at power e.g. 60 seats or so.


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## Purple (29 Feb 2016)

odyssey06 said:


> If FF go into coalition with FG, it will last for the 5 years... If FF stand back and allow a FG minority government to form, it will be with the intention of bringing them down in 6 - 12 months when it suits FF and they think they have a chance of a clear run at power e.g. 60 seats or so.


Yep.
The Shinners want an FF/FG government. The last thing they want is to be in power.


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## Gerry Canning (29 Feb 2016)

Not sure if option is left or more left.
Not sure what (left or more left,) really mean any more, they seem to have become with (right or more right) lazy last century handles to try to differentiate parties..
I would have thought all the developed Nordic and European countries would fall into (left) ?

Maybe
left = people ,  
Right = business,
Most parties are trying to keep business and people in sync , and that is healthy..


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## 44brendan (29 Feb 2016)

For an impartial observer this is an extremely interesting political scenario. Unfortunately most of us don't have the luxury of being impartial.
It was probably only a matter of time before the lack of differential between FF & FG created this scenario. The votes borrowed by FG at the last election (remember that plea?) have now been taken back. Should be no real surprise to FG. I think other than the hardened party faithful most of us would have no problem with a FF/FG coalition (temporary or permanent).
To be somewhat fair to SF they have some good TD's who are shackled at the moment by the singularity of the leadership. IF GA was taken out of the equation they would likely revert to a middle left party which could easily take over the mantle from Labour. Given the significant turn to the left by Labour UK I think SF Nua would be slightly more centralist if/when Gerry moves on. This would likely involve a separation of North/South leaders as I can't see any alternative leader being acceptable to both sides of SF.
An early new election is going to be a high risk strategy for both FF/FG. Many of those marginal seats could head off in any direction. Have we ever seen as many seats divided by such small voting numbers?
Fergie would definitely view this as being squeaky bum time for us all!!


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## Duke of Marmalade (29 Feb 2016)

Purple said:


> By the standards of developed countries around the world it's a major stretch to describe either FF or FG as right wing.
> We have a choice of left wing or very left wing.


Up to a point _Purple_.  Our tax rates are progressive for sure and our social protection rates compare well.  But we definitely have an unfair two tier health system compared to peers.  Similarly for education, albeit to a lesser degree.  Our legal system seems greatly tilted towards the elite classes - witness no convictions yet for the €65bn heist.


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## Dermot (29 Feb 2016)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> But we definitely have an unfair two tier health system compared to peers.



I do not disagree with you on that.  T

The problem with it is not about the amount of money that is spent on it, it is the way that it is spent or administered.  Political answers of throwing more money at it will not sort it out.  The whole culture in the health service needs to change.  To many layers of administrative bureaucracy in it. More front line staff less back office for a start.  
It is not going to be sorted out by politicians so it probably never will.  It would take a least 10 years to stream line it and no Government would survive with what might have to be done in the first 5 years.
Throw a few €billion more into it any there would be very little improvement
I do not have the links but I have seen figures showing that we have one of the highest spends on health per head of population when account is taken of age profile/number of private paying patients.


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## Purple (1 Mar 2016)

I am increasingly of the opinion that the state's incompetence in delivering public services is undermining democracy in this country. The people who depend on services use their local TD to maneuver through the system in order to get what they should get as a matter of course. The people who pay for it all see their hard earned money being wasted by un-sanctionable and largely unaccountable state bodies due to incompetence and inefficient processes. This undermines the legitimacy of the state in the same way corruption does in developing countries. It fosters resentment and division between working people and those who depend on welfare and between those who work outside the state sector and those who work within it. 
These insidious issues are slowly fracturing the cohesiveness of our country.


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## Dr.Debt (1 Mar 2016)

@Purple In relation to state services, you are right about inefficient and ineffective processes but the main problem is not the processes but rather the large numbers of staff (not all) who contribute almost nothing to these processes  and are still un touchable in their employment.

I think it was James Reilly who made this point quite well when asked why he wasnt reforming the health service as promised. His respomse was that 80% of the budget related to the cost of staff and in terms of the staff in place, they were untouchable regardless of their performance. So even though the service needs lots more front line staff, there is no budget to hire them as the payroll is already being spent on swathes of unsuitable employees who contribute very little.

The solution is not to spend more on the health service but to weed out the rot and replace it with people who possess the skills needed.
Main problem is political will, employment law and unions. Same problem throughout the public service too.


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## Purple (1 Mar 2016)

I don't think the problem is necessarily over-staffing but rather inefficient systems and processes as well as labour inflexibility. Both Unions and senior management have a responsibility for that.


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## Leper (1 Mar 2016)

Back to Forming a New Government . . . the dust is settling on the General Election.  From forecasts three weeks ago in the Irish Times, RTE, Independent etc they all got it wrong.  Let's hope Micheal Martin, Enda Kenny, Gerry Adams don't get it wrong now. What I have been reading in the newspapers and listening on the radio the Big 3 are putting party before the country. Ultimately, this will cost them.

The Irish people have spoken and if they are ignored be it at your own cost Micheal, Enda and Gerry. We want a stable government and not something that will last only eighteen months. The people are fed up with jargon, austerity, crooked politicians, crooked bankers etc.  Bring on an early general election and you will pay the price.  

If Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael cannot come to some kind of long-term working agreement both looking over their shoulders at Sinn Féin the people will find a long term solution.  I have no problems with Sinn Féin leading the opposition or Sinn Féin sharing power with FF or FG. FF and FG don't see it like that, but this is what we have, get over it. 

Bertie Ahern should keep his mouth shut with his predictions.  He is past tense. He was one of the guys who got us into dreadful debt in the first place. On last evening's RTE news we learned that due to the inability to form a government in Spain and Portugal they are suffering increase in interest rates for a start.  I don't think the Big 3 could put up with the public's wrath should this happen here.

We now have an intelligent electorate.  Have a look at the first preference votes for Independents, Green Party, (leave out Labour, FF, FG, SF, Renua).  Even ignore the spoiled votes and the one in three people who did not vote.You will find that all these protest voters contribute to a near quota in any election first count.  Big 3, ignore at your peril.

I hope a new government can be formed quickly.  Forget about the 100th anniversary of the Easter Rising; that's past, so be patriotic and look to the future.  If you don't the people will.


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## Ceist Beag (2 Mar 2016)

Absolutely agree Leper. Now that the shock of the election result is abating somewhat I think the people will start demanding that the politicians grow up, act maturely and get on with the job of forming a government. The cards have been dealt and the result to a certain extent frees up the parties (especially FG and FF) to move away from their manifestos somewhat to reach a compromise in order to form a government that can last the full term. They just need to get on with it now.


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## so-crates (2 Mar 2016)

The ones with the most to gain from an early election are Gerry "I wouldn't join any club that would have me as a member" Adams and Mícheál "I'm the saviour come again" Martin. It is their behaviour that should bear the most intense scrutiny. They need to start stepping up to the plate with constuctive ideas - haven't seen a whole lot from either of them yet. MM's little tactical delay ploy might prove a boon but otherwise he is still in election mode, populism rules.


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## Leo (2 Mar 2016)

Leper said:


> The people are fed up with jargon, austerity, crooked politicians, crooked bankers etc.



They're clearly not, look at the numbers the likes of Lowrey, Adams, etc. are getting.


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## Cervelo (2 Mar 2016)

Leo said:


> They're clearly not, look at the numbers the likes of Lowrey, Adams, etc. are getting.



Don't forget Mick Wallace!!


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## thedaddyman (2 Mar 2016)

so-crates said:


> The ones with the most to gain from an early election are Gerry "I wouldn't join any club that would have me as a member" Adams and Mícheál "I'm the saviour come again" Martin. It is their behaviour that should bear the most intense scrutiny. They need to start stepping up to the plate with constuctive ideas - haven't seen a whole lot from either of them yet. MM's little tactical delay ploy might prove a boon but otherwise he is still in election mode, populism rules.



Not sure I agree with Micheal and FF having a lot to gain by a quick election. A new FG leader could give them FG a bounce, especially if they spin the story that the only reason there is a 2nd election was because FF wouldn't be flexible. Couple of FFer's I know are concerned that they overachieved this time around

As for SF, they have been leaking support at a massive rate over the last 18 months. Remember not that long ago they were at around 28% in the polls and their actual vote last weel was around half of that. SF support has only gone in one direction over the last year and a half

Also, money is an issue here, how many of the parties actually have the funds for another election?


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## blueband (2 Mar 2016)

Cervelo said:


> Don't forget Mick Wallace!!


While I wouldn't vote for him he has been excellent at shining a light on wrong doing and corruption! we need whistle blowers....


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## Gerry Canning (2 Mar 2016)

Where did any Voter say they wanted Stable Government ?

Voters I think only said {a plague on all your houses} ......
I agree with Leo , we are clearly fond of thieves, chancers and liars.

I now hear the platitudes on the (good) TD,s that lost their seats.
As Willie Shakespeare said { the good is oft interred with the bones}.

One thing I am fairly sure of is this , the now Big Beasts , FF, FG and Sinn Fein will NOT be thanked if they start posturizing .
Maybe the best outcome is instability and let us have another election to decide which one of these boyos we will properly decide hasn,t or can,t grow up.


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## Sophrosyne (2 Mar 2016)

A FG/FF collaboration might work if both could set aside party politics and come up with a workable program for government.

But this would require enormous discipline and single-mindedness to avoid every little issue breaking down on party lines.

Although I have not forgiven FF, I think Michael McGrath would be the kind of person to pull this off. He is very measured and I think would be respected by both parties.


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## Cervelo (2 Mar 2016)

blueband said:


> While I wouldn't vote for him he has been excellent at shining a light on wrong doing and corruption! we need whistle blowers....



He may have shone a light on others wrong doing but when it comes to himself he shows no remorse or atonement for his wrong doing, yeah we need more of these people running our country


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## Gerry Canning (2 Mar 2016)

Cervelo ,

As an ex Taioseach said he {did the state some service}
......................... 
Sophrosyne.
There is a cartoon , with 2 Goldfish looking at a (Fianna Fail did wellin election headline) , one says to the other {and they think we have short memories}


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## odyssey06 (2 Mar 2016)

Cervelo said:


> He may have shone a light on others wrong doing but when it comes to himself he shows no remorse or atonement for his wrong doing, yeah we need more of these people running our country



Mick Wallace ... not a man to run a country, or even a business. But certainly a man for knocking over ant hills, and upsetting a few apple carts that needed upsetting, and for airing dirty laundry in public (both his own and the state's).  He's the kindaguy to say that the emperor has no clothes when everyone else is keeping their head down. He's certainly done the state some service with his barrelling in where angels fear to tread.

We need a few more cranks in the Dail asking awkward questions and not more yes-sir no-sir groupthink-beholden anonymous backbenchers, or people whose only ambition is to serve in cabinet (and bank the ministerial pension) without any notion of what they do when they get there.


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## Sophrosyne (2 Mar 2016)

Gerry Canning said:


> Sophrosyne.
> There is a cartoon , with 2 Goldfish looking at a (Fianna Fail did wellin election headline) , one says to the other {and they think we have short memories}



Well of course Gerry, if collaboration were to work it would require the laying aside of party politics by FG and FF, but also by the electorate.

Though the electorate may not have voted for stability, it needs it.


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## Duke of Marmalade (2 Mar 2016)

What about this for a model for power sharing.  Every TD has a single transferrable vote.  Every TD must be available for every cabinet post.  The quota for Teashop is, say, 10 votes, MOF 7 votes, other major ministries 5 votes and the other minor ministries 3 votes.  Then hold an open ballot. (I could even write a simple program for it so we avoid recounts)  Senior ministers then appoint their own junior ministers.


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## so-crates (2 Mar 2016)

Mícheál Martin needs to cop on to himself. Prioritising Irish Water and making that a deal breaker? I mean, of all the problems you could pick - he picks the stupidest one. Redline issues should be important. Spending even more money on re-imagining Irish Water into some palatable alternative he can fob off the masses with is not one of them. Let's face it. He hasn't proposed anything constructive. Nor have any of them. None of them actually have a bean about what they want to do. They all spout "abolish" but not a single one of them actually has come out with a workable solution. Probably they plan on making a worse hash of it by "nationalising" something we already own 100%  Going back to a fragmented, council-ridden service of variable quality is not exactly a wonderful idea.

Technically the flight from the left has already begun. "Left" representation (including the pseudo-left Sinners) is lower in the current Dáil than in the last. Why? Because they targeted Labour for crucifixion. Count the seats. Excluding independents for the moment, we have (currently) 49 FG + 44 FF = 93 centre-right TDs. On the other side we have 6 (currently) Labour, 23 (currently and probably) SF, 6 AAA-PBP, 3 SD = Grand total of 38 deputies. Nothing like hacking your nose off to spite your face, no siree. (In the last Dáil, we had 33 Labour alone).


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## so-crates (2 Mar 2016)

thedaddyman said:


> Not sure I agree with Micheal and FF having a lot to gain by a quick election. A new FG leader could give them FG a bounce, especially if they spin the story that the only reason there is a 2nd election was because FF wouldn't be flexible. Couple of FFer's I know are concerned that they overachieved this time around
> 
> As for SF, they have been leaking support at a massive rate over the last 18 months. Remember not that long ago they were at around 28% in the polls and their actual vote last weel was around half of that. SF support has only gone in one direction over the last year and a half
> 
> Also, money is an issue here, how many of the parties actually have the funds for another election?



 Fair points, but if there is an early election there will be an unholy scramble to blame each other. I still think that MM would like a second stab at the electorate within 18 months. Too much longer and a bedded in recovery will make it a harder row to hoe unless he has been very visibly part of the government that "made" it so (something he has stated he doesn't want).

FF has over achieved a bit. They have a bonus of 6 seats over their 1st Prefs. FG has over achieved more, they currently have a bonus of 9 seats over their 1st prefs (and very likely a bonus of 10). 

SF support has consolidated though. They have increased their seats and they have secured a good percentage of the vote, despite the high-profile Slab Murphy trial, the Gerry the Gaffer factor, etc. One thing I found interesting was they are a good deal less transfer-toxic this time around. 

Gerry told them to save the posters, their's weren't the only ones down quick as a flash, probably doesn't want to go knocking some cash out of people too soon but it is more likely that the smaller parties and independents would suffer worst of all if a fresh election is called.


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## Duke of Marmalade (2 Mar 2016)

FF are making a complete fool of themselves on this water thing, and so too is Simon Coveney.  Henda is absolutely right that scrapping IW is not only costly, the decentralisation of water supply is just a nonsense.  FF adopted the abolish IW mantra as a purely populist tactic. Possibly it got them votes but it is now a millstone round their neck.  It is hard to see how FF can back down from "abolish IW".  It is a bit easier for FG to give in as Simon Coveney hinted but that will go down like a lead balloon with FG voters.  It would also hand a great win to FF, this won't happen.  It is amazing that the abolition or otherwise of IW has become a red line issue between FF and FG.  IMHO FG are entirely on the right side of this red line issue.


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## Leper (2 Mar 2016)

I was glued to the television last weekend and flicked around from station to station when there was dual coverage.  At long last there is a huge protest vote in Ireland. Just look at the first preference votes for the weak "Also Rans" where in many instances accumulated to near quota figures even before you counted the spoiled votes.  Also, remember one in three people did not vote.

The one sure thing that most of the politicians were saying in the aftermath of the bloodbath was that they did not want another election.  If there is another election the Protest Voters will protest even more now that they have got a feel for what they can achieve.


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## Sophrosyne (2 Mar 2016)

so-crates said:


> Mícheál Martin needs to cop on to himself. Prioritising Irish Water and making that a deal breaker? I mean, of all the problems you could pick - he picks the stupidest one. Redline issues should be important. Spending even more money on re-imagining Irish Water into some palatable alternative he can fob off the masses with is not one of them. Let's face it. He hasn't proposed anything constructive.



Completely agree. Now is a time for statesmen/women and not political party hacks.

As for the elected "protesters", they have had their protest, now let us hear their governmental program proposals and see whether they stack up.


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## Betsy Og (3 Mar 2016)

Hugely depressing week. What was Coveney thinking...... if IW had to come into negotiations with FF it should have been in a smoky room with a well thought out press release to follow. Instead we got chaos.

As for the left, that great expression "You dont know you're born" comes to mind. How far do they think they can push the squeezed middle?? We have a welfare state that lashes out free cash for nothing to those who cant think of enough other ways to bleed us (health, crime being the first two I can think of). Now they want us to pay for their water as well - "general taxation" is just a way of saying "that crowd over there can pay for me" - so spare us the social solidarity ruse (we have generous free allowances), they couldnt care less about the rights and wrongs of funding a decent water service.

Its got to the stage where I now want to lunatics to take over the asylum, its nearly preferable to them eating away like a cancer. Give them their 6 months, pray the damage isnt too bad, then decimate them at the polls and get politicians away from empty populism.

FF - I'm not sure why but I thought you were above this IW populism - makes no sense at any level. Ye introduced it, the EU requires it, it makes sense to pay by use (I know FG ballsed up the metering issue), there are billions of investment required, will we thrown granny off the trolley so??, money doesn't grow on trees but it seems away into the ground.

FG - let's be perfectly clear about this (as they used to say in the Norn Iron narrative), it seems you are the only force sparing this nation from the anarchy so dearly sought by AAA and the other loopers, while you are increasingly showing yourself incapable, be strong and hold the line, your voters will thank you (newsflash, trying to please everyone doesn't work anymore, battlelines are drawn), and BE VERY CLEAR if you punish those who have paid I, and many others, will scribble out the face of every FG candidate on the ballot paper next time and vote for the lunatics to hasten the apocolypse and see is there any politician with steel and substance that emerges to bring back reality. 

Now where's that visa application.........


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## Duke of Marmalade (3 Mar 2016)

I'm with you Betsy but those would be spoiled votes


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## Ceist Beag (3 Mar 2016)

+1 Betsy but just one thing I would point out - and I may be wrong in this, but my reading of the FF position is that they do still agree with the idea of IW but simply want to appear to be with the crowd shouting down with water charges. So I suspect that what will happen here is that FF and FG will agree to keep IW but reduce the payment even further (maybe even reduce it down to match the conservation grant for a couple of years) and that will be that. Over time I fully expect rates will go up again and eventually metering will come in. I'm not saying I agree with this and like you I would like FG to take a strong line on this but I think this will be the agreement reached in order to move on to the more important issues.


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## Delboy (3 Mar 2016)

Why anyone here expected more of FF than what we've heard in the past few days is beyond me. Fool me once, shame on you- fool me over and over again....

There will be no Middle if PBP/AAA/SF/Nutters Utd get their way or if they can influence FF in that direction.
I heard Vardakar just before the election saying that 40% of the population have Medical Cards and he was saying that in a proud manner! As if thats a sign of a great country.
McWilliams had an article a few years back saying the number of people on Disability benefits had gone through the roof since the crash. More sweeties being handed out.

And the Middle are expected to keep paying for this lunacy while paying inflated mortgages for inflated house prices, trying to educate their kids with the the threat of Uni fees on the way, car insurance going through the roof thanks in no small part to legal fees from the untouchables in the Law Library/Bar Council, health insurance going up in double digit %'s every year and no politician willing to take on the vested interests in Health.
And they tell us inflation is close to zero %

Arrrghhh....I'm angry now for the rest of the day


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## Leo (3 Mar 2016)

Leper said:


> I was glued to the television last weekend and flicked around from station to station when there was dual coverage.  At long last there is a huge protest vote in Ireland. Just look at the first preference votes for the weak "Also Rans" where in many instances accumulated to near quota figures even before you counted the spoiled votes.  Also, remember one in three people did not vote.
> 
> The one sure thing that most of the politicians were saying in the aftermath of the bloodbath was that they did not want another election.  If there is another election the Protest Voters will protest even more now that they have got a feel for what they can achieve.



The second lowest turn out ever (since 1948 anyway), and significant drop from 2011 suggests the anger and protest vote is subsiding. Confusion and lack of substantive choice is on the increase. Protest voters may start to realise many of the protest candidates would much rather sit in opposition than try to affect real change.


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## so-crates (3 Mar 2016)

Sophrosyne said:


> As for the elected "protesters", they have had their protest, now let us hear their governmental program proposals and see whether they stack up.





Rather like a teetering poorly constructed Jenga tower would be my guess. One that has an incredibly narrow base supporting an ever expanding weight above it. A base that they will likely attack frequently because why change the habits of a century.


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## Delboy (3 Mar 2016)

Royston Brady on Sean O'Rourke Show now talking about Irish Water
"In Ireland 3/4's of people work and 1/4 do nothing. They go around in pyjamas all day, from families with inter-generational unemployment and they have never paid for anything in their lives and don't want to start doing so now either. I remember them from my time in Dublin Central and I used to talk to Bertie about this, about the Poverty Industry. And this is what the Shinners tap into."
He actually sounds surprised that FF got such a big vote so soon after the crash and that Martin is even close to becoming Taoiseach

Royston....Real FF or Provisional FF


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## 44brendan (3 Mar 2016)

Leo said:


> The second lowest turn out ever (since 1948 anyway), and significant drop from 2011


Yes a 5% drop from 2011 means that 175,000 of those who voted in 2011 didn't turn out for this election. Perhaps these figures are somewhat misleading as the size of the electorate in 2011 was 3.2m as opposed to 3.5mln in 2016.
My uninformed theory on the stats is that the significant increase in electorate size was predominately due to a surge in registration in the 18-25 bracket for the marriage equality vote. This vote caught the interest of the predominately younger people of voting age who had no real interest in the current election.
From personal experience I had 2 offspring in that bracket who were fully committed to marriage equality but totally lethargic about the current election. To them politics is boring and they had no interest in the squabbling and rhetoric of the main parties. We need some leadership that can attract and interest younger voters. Micheal martin at 55 is a "young" leader and to be honest I can't blame our younger population for feeling totally remote from politics which is broadly aimed at middle aged/older elements of the electorate. Where are our younger politicians and what do they have to offer???


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## Firefly (3 Mar 2016)

Michael O'Leary on the election / new government:

_Logically, whether it’s in one or two more elections, you’re going to see Sinn Fein and the left get stronger and stronger, which ultimately means Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will in some way get together or coalesce and move to the centre-right; at the moment they hover in the centre-left.”

He said: “You have the radical left, the Shinners, and some of the other lunatics out there, and actually Ireland might be better served by having a right-left debate, so that instead of the left sitting there in opposition but being against everything , they’d have to come up with some credible economic  policies, of which they have none at the moment.”_




Here here!


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## Dermot (3 Mar 2016)

It is time for one of the bigger parties to step up to the plate and design policies that represent the views of the middle and lower middle classes.
Equally it is time for the same middle and lower classes to support policies that would continue to make employment attractive and encourage more people into work.
The smoked salmon socialists might try and engage their brain as well.

As I see politics in this country is a populist race to the bottom and the almost 50 shades of leftie thinking is continuing to prosper and that will eventually bring us back into a bad place.

The setting up of Irish Water was a costly shambles but it will cost more to shut it down whether it is for 5 years or forever.   FF are all over the shop as are the Trade unions on this.  Something of a compromise on this might be a 10 year freeze on the charge at say a nett €150 per year.

Currently I cannot see what will be seen as a stable Government being formed.  This will effect decisions by multinationals investing here and the financial markets views of the country. 

Cannot see a FG led Government supported  by FF lasting too long as there are always tough and unpopular decisions to be made by Governments and cannot see FF standing around for that.  In a scenario of FF supporting FG they would be constantly looking at how their "shadow" SF was doing in the polls in comparison to themselves and they might very nervous and create an opportunist situation and head for the country.

Currently we have a lot of "unknown knowns and known unknowns" facing us politically and financially at home and abroad.

Time for everyone to look at the bigger picture.


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## Duke of Marmalade (8 Mar 2016)

I'm looking forward to Thursday's vote for Grizzly for Teashop.  Outside the SF Politburo will anybody else support him?  Just how toxic is he?  We will find out.


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## Gerry Canning (8 Mar 2016)

Dermot.
Don,t largely disagree with your post.
Only big -issue I have is this.

We have been (led) by non lefties for years and I do not think they have done us proud !, maybe we just got used to them being around and are fearful of these (lefties) bogeymen.
Nothing like a bit of (rightwingish) fear of (leftie loonies) to ensure things largely stay as is ?

Irish Water ,I agree will sort along your thoughts.
Do we need stable or do we need  good government , its up to the TD,s.
Stable government  strikes as more of the same wafflers.. 
Don,t worry about SF , I havn,t seen many companies leave N Ire. The cynic in me says (Mercs are lovely). They will go with the flow.


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## Dermot (8 Mar 2016)

Gerry Canning said:


> Don,t worry about SF , I havn,t seen many companies leave N Ire. The cynic in me says (Mercs are lovely). They will go with the flow.



I do not have very many problems with your post either Gerry other than the Shinners and the Unionists are in real terms only implementing/administrating Westminster policies.  You could make an argument that a Government here is implementing Troika/EU policy.  The Government here has a bit more flexibility down here in what they do than in the north.
Strangely SF do not have much authority on Fiscal portfolios in the north.


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## Duke of Marmalade (8 Mar 2016)

The SF experience in NI is dangerously irrelevant when contemplating them having any share of power down here.  As Dermot says, NI really has very little autonomy, for example tax rates are set by Westminster and judging by our own GE tax rates seem to amount to about 90% of what voters are interested in.

SF would have been just as bad as Syriza if they had been faced with handling our crisis, a responsibility which their NI role will never entail.


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## Gerry Canning (9 Mar 2016)

The point is that, for all the posturing on the purity of {never never never}Sf,s stances   ,  SF have accepted the status quo in N ire , and come Merc time here in ROI will roll over (in the national interest) etc,

Sorry if I sound a tad cynical!


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## Gerry Canning (9 Mar 2016)

Gerry Canning said:


> The point is that, for all the posturing on the purity of {never never never}Sf,s stances   ,  SF have accepted the status quo in N ire , and come Merc time here in ROI will roll over (in the national interest) etc,
> 
> Sorry if I sound a tad cynical!


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## cork (9 Mar 2016)

Odd think about SF is the lack of courage by them to speak out against the child abuse by the Provos or the slab murphy case.


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## Leo (9 Mar 2016)

cork said:


> Odd think about SF is the lack of courage by them to speak out against the child abuse by the Provos or the slab murphy case.



They're not exactly famous for speaking out against criminality of any shade. Despite some early signs Mary Lou might change thing with her initial reaction to the slab case, she was quickly put in her place.


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## Firefly (9 Mar 2016)

Ceist Beag said:


> So I suspect that what will happen here is that FF and FG will agree to keep IW



Agreed - the last thing they are going to do is shut it down and accept the sunk costs. Furthermore they are not exactly going to make semi-state employees redundant. The effect of this could very well moving from a position where Ervia pays an annual dividend to the taxpayer each year via profits from Bord Gais to one where the taxpayer may instead be funding IW and therefore negating this dividend. You couldn't make it up.


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## Delboy (10 Mar 2016)

One way of making an entrance: Healy-Rae brothers host mini-session on top of a car outside the Dáil
http://www.independent.ie/irish-new...on-top-of-a-car-outside-the-dil-34528417.html


> The two brothers arrived outside Leinster House, for the first day of the 32nd Dail, on top of a jeep with some of their entourage.
> A whopping 100 supporters travelled with the brothers from Kerry this morning for the big occasion.
> Accordian in hand, Danny treated onlookers to a few tunes, and a piper also played to welcome them.
> Traffic on Kildare street ground to a standstill  as the pair took to the roof of Danny's jeep with his children.


[broken link removed]

Érin go bragh


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## 44brendan (10 Mar 2016)

Dear God!!!! Have we moved on at all from the 50's? Why would any of these people attempt to change a political system that perpetuates this level of nepotism.
"Sure aren't they great men for the Kingdom and will show that shower in Dublin that we still live in the dark ages!!!"


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## Leper (11 Mar 2016)

Delboy said:


> One way of making an entrance: Healy-Rae brothers host mini-session on top of a car outside the Dáil
> http://www.independent.ie/irish-new...on-top-of-a-car-outside-the-dil-34528417.html
> 
> [broken link removed]
> ...




. . . and worse again, Michael Healy-Rae in his appearance on Prime Time last night looked the soundest of the political people taking part . . . God Help Us All !!!


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## thedaddyman (11 Mar 2016)

Leper said:


> . . . and worse again, Michael Healy-Rae in his appearance on Prime Time last night looked the soundest of the political people taking part . . . God Help Us All !!!



Michael Healy Rae has been probably the most sensible politician I've heard over the last few weeks. In a cess pool of idiocy, soundbites and hypocrisy, he has been a sane and rational voice. I can't believe as a Cork native I am saying that about a Kerry man, these are indeed strange times we live in .

I also don't have a problem about him campaigning for local issues, I remember him saying before the election when he was asked why he did that, his answer was simple, why are the rest of the politicians not doing it?. If they had, maybe some of the idiotic choices FG/Lab made in recent years would not have happened. People in the Pale should remember that the further you go from Dublin, the more and more you need someone to shout loud for you

He may not be the most polished individual and personally the cap makes him look like a bit of an eejit(maybe that is deliberate on his part), but don't be fooled, he is an intelligent and tough man.  I've had enough of sleeveens from, Dublin like Charlie and Bertie, enough of bumbling intellectuals lie Gareth F, enough of politics by pollsters like Enda, enough of chancers like Lowry and Wallace, enough of the hard left with their "down with that sort of thing" attitude to anything that is even vaguely rational.   Michael Healy Rae for Taoiseach !!


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## gianni (11 Mar 2016)

^^^^^
Can we get a dislike button for AAM ?


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## Firefly (11 Mar 2016)

Do we know will Henda go back teaching?


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