# Irish banking shares in complete meltdown (again)



## Murt10

AIB  (-41.38%)
BOI  (-28.00%)
Irlife &P (-25.77%)


I feel sick! The Country is goind down the tubes.


Murt


----------



## Brian76

And there goes Bank of Irelands chief executive now. Retiring in the Summer apparently. 

Thats has swiftly followed the resignation of the 5 remaining directors of Anglo Irish this morning.


----------



## smiley

eh hello. I think youll find that banking shares are getting hammered all over the globe today..not just irish banks.


----------



## Sunny

Good old RBS makes our banks look like well oiled machines!


----------



## Kemo_Sabe

smiley said:


> eh hello. I think youll find that banking shares are getting hammered all over the globe today..not just irish banks.


 
are you saying that all bank stocks globally are down 98% from their highs?


----------



## Towger

Almost 52% now for AIB. Is hitting 20 cent the threshold for nationalisation? Time to emigrate soon


----------



## pingpong

Can you tell me the websites you are using for tracking Irish banks shareprices and ditto for the international situation?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

The site is the best for Irish shares, but it occasionally is not updated.

Then I switch to the RTE one which is a very irritating site.

Brendan


----------



## Patrick2008

www.davy.ie has a 15 minute delay but is fairly good.


----------



## Towger

Also try Davy's


----------



## Patrick2008

I wonder if our savings are safe in any of the Irish banks at the moment? Is the Government Guarantee worth anyhting at this stage?


----------



## lemur

I doubt it.


----------



## VOR

Goodbody is good also but only updates every 20 minutes.
[broken link removed]


----------



## Raskolnikov

I remember reading that Brendan is a shareholder in AIB. I wonder how he feels about the prospect of us shareholders getting wiped out because it looks like nationalisation is on the cards.


----------



## terrontress

[broken link removed] has a 15 min delayed Reuters link if you click on the Market Tools option on the side.

A few international exhanges too.

Also, good charts, Reuters news etc.


----------



## WaterSprite

Is there a share price at which nationalisation would occur?


----------



## terrontress

Raskolnikov said:


> I remember reading that Brendan is a shareholder in AIB. I wonder how he feels about the prospect of us shareholders getting wiped out because it looks like nationalisation is on the cards.


 
I am holding 1,200 AIB Shares. I considered getting out at 20 to spend on my wedding but didn't as I thought they'd go back to 25.

I considered selling 500 at 13 to pay off my credit card bill but didn't as I thought they would go back to 20.

They have gone from a value of €30k to €600.

As far as I am concerned I am wiped out already.


----------



## NHG

Sorry to go slightly of topic, but how is the dollar doing and where can I watch it, should I be buying dollars before Obama takes over tomorrow. (did'nt know that I needed dollars until friday)


----------



## PaddyW

Wow, why the sudden meltdown today?


----------



## Pope John 11

Patrick2008 said:


> I wonder if our savings are safe in any of the Irish banks at the moment? Is the Government Guarantee worth anyhting at this stage?


 
Can we have anyones views on this one..... you have got me concerned at this stage.


----------



## Sunny

Pope John 11 said:


> Can we have anyones views on this one..... you have got me concerned at this stage.


 
The Government Guarantee is fine. Your savings are perfectly safe.


----------



## Digger

What are the chances of the government nationalising the 2 remaining banks and at what cost. do they hold enough shares to force a nationalisation in the likes of AIB and BOI. ?


----------



## Sunny

Digger said:


> What are the chances of the government nationalising the 2 remaining banks and at what cost. do they hold enough shares to force a nationalisation in the likes of AIB and BOI. ?


 
You don't have to hold any shares to nationalise a bank. You just do it. I can't see it happening but I have given up trying to predict anything! They will end up owning a bigger share of the banks as I think they will end up having to buy the shares that they agreed to underwrite. Will probably have to put inmore money in as well.


----------



## diarmuidc

terrontress said:


> I considered selling 500 at 13 to pay off my credit card bill but didn't as I thought they would go back to 20.



You were investing while still having a €6500 credit card bill? I recommend rethinking your financial planning.


----------



## lemeister

[broken link removed] streams live prices


----------



## terrontress

diarmuidc said:


> You were investing while still having a €6500 credit card bill? I recommend rethinking your financial planning.


 
100% with you there brother.

I was working for AIB at the time so, aside from a once yearly deduction from my salary I wasn't paying any money out and was getting 50% of my holding as part of my annual package.

I was stupid beyond belief to not pay it off when I could and the bill is larger now and my shares worth less than a tenth of what I owe.

I suppose the only positive is that I have learned a lesson.


----------



## VOR

I have an awful feeling worse is to come this week. Don't ask me why but looking at what is happening, I fear systemic failure of the banking system here and in Britain. 
Maybe it's just my spider senses!


----------



## lemur

I just got back from BOI VOR. Getting most of my money out.

Banks look like Enron in the final days.


----------



## mercman

NHG said:


> Sorry to go slightly of topic, but how is the dollar doing and where can I watch it, should I be buying dollars before Obama takes over tomorrow. (did'nt know that I needed dollars until friday)



Try www.xe.com


----------



## Towger

Mercman,

Have you had anymore problems getting rent from your banking tennants or is Her Majesty footing the bill now?


----------



## jimbobman

lemur

why would you take your money out. its 100% guaranteed by the banks. RBS's results were shocking today. it looks like we are on the cusp of a new leg down in the stock market starting tomorrow in the US


----------



## lemur

Guaranteed by who? Backed by what. 

The meltdown in bank shares today is a red flag systemic risk warning.


----------



## jimbobman

guaranteed by the irish govt. 

meltdown is due to investors pulling their money out of the banks as they fear they will be nationalised. if they are nationalized then shares will be wortless but deposits will be safe. no point in taking your money out


----------



## lemur

jimbobman said:


> guaranteed by the irish govt.




Given that the gubbermint is likely to be $20bln in the red this year with revenues falling, where would the funds come from to fund this guarantee?.

Hint: It would have to borrow it. Today, Ireland's credit rating was downgraded increasing the cost of borrowing. If push came to shove and the gubbermint had to bail out the banks with actual cash, I doubt they could actually raise the money.


----------



## terrontress

jimbobman said:


> guaranteed by the irish govt.
> 
> meltdown is due to investors pulling their money out of the banks as they fear they will be nationalised. if they are nationalized then shares will be wortless but deposits will be safe. no point in taking your money out


 
Does the government have access to a limitless pool of cash?


----------



## VOR

jimbobman said:


> guaranteed by the irish govt.
> 
> meltdown is due to investors pulling their money out of the banks as they fear they will be nationalised. if they are nationalized then shares will be wortless but deposits will be safe. no point in taking your money out


 
Quite right. Lemur, things are bad and sure to get worse but your money is better in a bank with a guarantee than under the matress.


----------



## lemur

Never said I put in under the matress. I moved it off-shore.


----------



## jimbobman

an over reaction lemur


----------



## z109

The government's guarantee scheme is as sound as it ever was.


----------



## Towger

terrontress said:


> Does the government have access to a limitless pool of cash?


 
I have been wondering what would happen if a government started to print their own 'euros'. I remember a thread where someone said when abroad they would only accept notes from their own country.


----------



## jimbobman

dont think they cud do that . the ECB wud not allow it. if worst came to worst and the govt cudnt fund the guarantee then the ECB and IMF wud step in


----------



## lemur

jimbobman said:


> an over reaction lemur




How do you know that? AIB & BOI down 55%+ in one day! 

If that does not tell you something...


----------



## lemur

They would have too.. but your money may not be accessible for a while or you might just be able to get a percentage of your funds out. This has been experienced in recent history by people in Iceland, Argentina, Ecuador and others. 

I am not saying this is going to happen - I dont know - but todays share price action is a serious warning signal.


----------



## jimbobman

yes it tells you that investors are selling their shares cos they think the banks will be nationalised. not that they think the banks deposits will be lost... as i have said already


----------



## Pauliwalnuts

terrontress said:


> I am holding 1,200 AIB Shares. I considered getting out at 20 to spend on my wedding but didn't as I thought they'd go back to 25.
> 
> I considered selling 500 at 13 to pay off my credit card bill but didn't as I thought they would go back to 20.
> 
> They have gone from a value of €30k to €600.
> 
> As far as I am concerned I am wiped out already.


 
Terron that right there is the human cost of this meltdown. I feel sorry for you and the many thousands like you who have lost thousands because is the mismanagement of the financial system. It's all well & good realising their is the risk that when you buy shares that they may fall as well as rise, but traditionally when buying bank shares you would not have expected them to collapse so spectacularly & in such a short space of time. So many pensioners have invested their life's worth in bank shares to have a bit of a nest egg in their latter years & now they find they have nothing. It's quite simply a disgrace.

I think it's beyond doubt now that the goverment are going to have to nationalise all Irish Banks. The markets have lost all confidence in the Irish Financial system.

Also we have a dithering goverment which nobody has any confidence in.
Time for party politics is over. We need a national goverment with all the best minds & talent we have, to get us out of this mess. It's only going to get worse as well, which is what is so disheartening.

Cowen, even though he inherited a poison chalice has got to be the worst excuse for a leader that the country has ever known. I have never seen a guy to wobble so badly & retreat into his shell as Mr. Cowen.

How in Lords name though we get them out. March on the streets ??
It's coming to that. This country is in dire straits.


----------



## VOR

Cowen has proven himself to be utterly useless as a leader.
The oppo are as bad with the exception of Bruton who I admire greatly (and I vote FF)
Labour's answer to the crises is Burton blathering on about utter rubbish. She hasn't a monkeys.

Now to get back on topic. I suspect Ulster Bank and First Active will be working for her maj by Friday at the latest. 
AIB and BOI look like they need to be nationalised also. They haven't a hope of getting the minimum of €1bn that they need. 
IMO, EBS is a basket case. Ditto the nationwide. 
IL&P just might make it but that's a slim chance and only because of the size of the commercial book.


----------



## rob30

I am watching the whole banking crisis with awe but also some puzzlement.

Surely a drop in bank share prices of 1 euro, when prices were say 15 euro a share, destroyed more wealth than a 50% drop from say 1 euro to 50 cent.

Are we now fixated on percentages, and the gorey headlines they create, as opposed to actual wealth destroyed. 

I look forward to being educated in this matter!


----------



## lemur

Just a guess - but those sort of massive price moves suggest aggressive shorting possibly by hedge funds in London who know something the rest of us don't.


----------



## Guest116

How about the other banks operating in Ireland, NIB for example? I don't hear much about them?


----------



## KFB123

With all of this talk I am wondering are deposits in AIB safe? I have a client who has close on €1m deposited in AIB. However if the Bank's are nationalised as is looking more and more likely, then the government are in charge. 
What happens if the government go bankrupt like Iceland? Are the funds on deposit lost?? Will the European central Bank let this happen??

As the joke goes, what's the difference between Iceland and Ireland??
One letter and about 3 months!!


----------



## webtax

lemur said:


> Just a guess - but those sort of massive price moves suggest aggressive shorting possibly by hedge funds in London who know something the rest of us don't.



Maybe the hedge funds just know there is a wall of fear & uncertainty out there to capitalise on.


----------



## rob30

KFB123 said:


> With all of this talk I am wondering are deposits in AIB safe? I have a client who has close on €1m deposited in AIB. However if the Bank's are nationalised as is looking more and more likely, then the government are in charge.
> What happens if the government go bankrupt like Iceland? Are the funds on deposit lost?? Will the European central Bank let this happen??
> 
> As the joke goes, what's the difference between Iceland and Ireland??
> One letter and about 3 months!!



The joke used be 1 letter and 6 months! That was 3 months ago. Interesting to see the prophesy is holding true!

Is anyone keeping an eye on the goings on in the dept of finance, central banks and BOI/ AIB tonight? 

On the propertypin website, they have a link to a traffic camera, that is trained on the central bank.

Interesting times!


----------



## george.shaw

Contagion is spreading throughout the Irish financial system and indeed the global financial system. Diversification into physical gold and government bonds (preferably AAA rated and index linked) is essential now more than ever.


----------



## terrontress

What's the capital of Iceland?

About €3.50!


----------



## lemur

Safe - we don't know. But I for one have taken measures to protect myself in a worst case scenario.


----------



## KFB123

lemur said:


> Safe - we don't know. But I for one have taken measures to protect myself in a worst case scenario.


 
How lemur?


----------



## lemur

Moved the money off shore. Cash & gold bullion. 

May even go largely into gold bullion if systemic risk spreads. The gold is a physical  asset whereas cash these days is a blip on a computer screen at the bank.


----------



## jimbobman

indeed these are interesting times. this week looks like being as bad as it can get??

by the end of the week, the govt could control all the banking system and half the country could be on strike due to PS pay cuts


----------



## george.shaw

Nature of cash of is key - with Club Med economies under serious pressure and at risk of default also - makes sense to look at Swiss francs and Swiss government bonds, possibly Singapore dollars and debt as well.

If IMF comes in - then small depositors may not be protected. They generally aren't and weren't in Argentina, Turkey, Ecuador etc. etc.

While the Argentine experience is not likely - it is important to remember that they were one of the wealthiest countries in the world and then got reduced to this:
Argentina's Economic Collapse - Part 1 of 12
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rH6_i8zuffs


----------



## lemur

The public service will fight a rearguard action to hold on to their unsustainable privileges but they will be fighting a losing battle. 

The game is up on the housing boom, American investment into Ireland and the benchmarking looting scam. Back to the 1980's now.


----------



## jimbobman

whats your opinion on PS pay cuts?  will the be enforced?


----------



## lemur

Suspect higher taxes and more borrowing will come first. But thats really a political question.


----------



## Guest124

I can see Cowen having to do a tv speech to the Nation shortly. People will be in total shock on hearing it.


----------



## PT14

Hi Lemur,

how exactly did you move money "offshore" -?

 I would have thought a bank that is a subsidiary of a foreign bank would count as "offshore" e.g. Rabo Bank or indeed NIB as backed by Danish scheme. I have been diversifying out of accounts with just the Irish Government guarantee but as soverign default is a possibility unless the international belief that all Irish banks are insolvent is rebuffed.   
As regards gold have you taken physical possession or made gold investments?  Any recommendations in this regard woudl be appreciated.

 I still think we are a while away from an argentine scenario as we are part of Euro zone so serious implications for Euro should Iirsh Gov default but it is becoming more likely by the day...

In summary Would appreciate your advice re moving cash and other assets  "offshore"


----------



## lemur

For gold - you could use Goldmoney.com or bullionvault.com. They store the bullion v cheaply for you. 

Re:cash - you can use the safewealth group in Switzerland who specialise in safe banks. 

Argentina - do'nt know if it will get that bad but we are heading in that direction. Look as it as a process that will unfold over time.


----------



## george.shaw

Don't believe it will get anywhere near as bad as Argentina. A lot depends on if the US can avoid a depression and possible hyperinflation. 

Digital gold is not a bad way of owning but one also has significant counter party risk, nationalisation risk and the not insignificant risk of their massive dependency on technology. Digital gold is entirely dependent on the interface with a website and one cannot take delivery of one's gold (important option to have in the current climate).

Best not to have your golden eggs in any one basket and to own physical gold that can take delivery of like gold bars or coins in an allocated account, safety deposit box or hidden away in your home's attic (with home insurance)! For obvious reasons would be better is more of us Paddies owned the gold in Ireland and not offshore.


----------



## marshmallow

Is the potential problem with the govt not being able to guarantee desposits restricted to Irish-owned banks only? In which case would it be advisable to move funds to non-Irish owned banks such as Rabo, Ulster and NIB etc? Even if the deposit interest rates are bad, is there a better chance that your deposits will be safer?


----------



## PaddyW

Wow, you're all making it sound like Armageddon is coming.


----------



## jimbobman

brian cowan should have done a speech already to the country. he needs to make an address like bush has being doing . the people need to know he is still alive


----------



## smiley

PaddyW said:


> Wow, you're all making it sound like Armageddon is coming.




Yes this doomsday talk is all getting quite irrational. I think people need to relax, take a few deep breaths and calm down.

The Country (like lots of others) has problems but all of them can be solved.

Calm down everybody.
Cool collective minds are needed not panic.


----------



## lemur

When the banking system blows up... its time to be concerned.


----------



## PaddyW

But until that time shouldn't we all try to keep cool and not go off on mad ones that involve financial ruin. It's this erratic, sensationalist thinking that will cause people to panic and turn this all into a self fulfilling prophecy. Calm heads are needed.


----------



## VOR

Fair point PaddyW and my post may have triggered this avalanche. 
People are fearful because they are not receiving any leadership or indeed information from the government. In fact, Cowen has stated that too many questions will just undermine the system even more. I don't like the "you can't handle the truth" attitude.
I see Bank of Ireland AM got out of Anglo in Oct 08. (They started rewinding positions in Dec 2007)
I understand that Irish Life are practically out of all their Irish bank positions, where possible. (Was told this by an employee)

One way or another I have concerns about what is going on. That does not mean I will be pulling money out of the banks. I'll rely on the bank guarantee. 

Merrill Lynch reported back to Cowen yesterday.Hopefully, it is a action based plan and not another useless visionary piece.


----------



## Nemesis

Agree with the sentiments here on remaining calm. If everyone rushes to pull their money out of Irish banks then collectively we're all going to have an even bigger mess to deal with. If I genuinely expected this Armageddon scenario to play out, I wouldn't just want my money offshore, I'd also want to get out of the country as well. If it somehow appears the rational thing to withdraw all your money from the Irish banks and to advise others to do the same in spite of government guarantees then it strikes me as not very rational to plan on living in this country in the years ahead. Just imagine if a run did take hold and no guarantees or assurances could stop it, the banking system in this country would be destroyed and chaos would ensue. We'd all have to pay in even higher taxes for years and god knows what else to try and clear up the mess. For those of us planning on living here through the already tough times we've got facing us, telling others they'd be wise to essentially participate in a run on our banks doesn't seem very sensible.


----------



## Sunny

VOR said:


> Merrill Lynch reported back to Cowen yesterday.Hopefully, it is a action based plan and not another useless visionary piece.


 
Can't believe we are getting advice from a bank that would have collpased itself if the US Government and Bank Of America hadn't saved it!!


----------



## VOR

Agreed. ML's record is terrible. I'll listen to anyone at this point as long as it points us in a direction. 

AIB at 30c from 60c.


----------



## foghorn

PaddyW said:


> But until that time shouldn't we all try to keep cool and not go off on mad ones that involve financial ruin. It's this erratic, sensationalist thinking that will cause people to panic and turn this all into a self fulfilling prophecy. Calm heads are needed.


 
Those who were predicting a property crash and banks being nationalised last year were being called sensationalist.


----------



## PaddyW

Fair enough, let's talk and panic our country into a financial blackhole.


----------



## PaddyW

And for the record, I myself knew that the financial bubble would not keep growing, it could never have kept expanding as it was. A property crash was always on the cards. The bank part, well I think few saw that coming.


----------



## Bronte

PaddyW said:


> Fair enough, let's talk and panic our country into a financial blackhole.


 I don't think anyone on here talked or panicked our country into the mess we're in. But we did elect the people who brought us to this and they in turn allowed the vested interests to do whatsoever they wished and that's why we are where we are at. What we need now is someone in charge telling us how we're going to get out of this mess, maybe we have to dig a little deeper to get to the bottom before we crawl our way out.


----------



## lemur

The Celtic tiger has been shot. Bottom - we are high on the downward slope and about to pick up speed on the downside. 

The people leading the company are a totally unsuitable bunch to lead us out of this.


----------



## Mr DT

I don't understand why people are so suprised.

What Goes Up Must Come Down. People thought Ireland was different but its not. As we went up higher than most, we will come down deeper than most.


----------



## Humdinger

There is little or no media mention of a certain Drumcondra based former Taoiseach, who led us into the present situation.
Timing is everything ... what a great move he made in getting out when he did.


----------



## PaddyW

Sinking ship comes to mind.


----------



## dazza21ie

To blame Bertie for all our woes is extremely unfair. Did he make Sean Fitzpatrick take out those dodgy loans? I think most people at this stage would admit that the burden of responsibilty lies on quite a few shoulders.


----------



## PaddyW

I don't think he's to blame for all the woes, but he knew the right time to leave the ship!


----------



## mercman

Humdinger said:


> There is little or no media mention of a certain Drumcondra based former Taoiseach, who led us into the present situation.



I really am unable to see as to how persons out there are simply blaming Bertie for this downturn. It is an international matter, caused by irresponsible lending by Banks, nothing more or nothing less. When the Central Bank issued warnings they were dismissed by Joe Public and the Banks themselves. When the Government did try and placed respectability on what was going on, they were met with severe confrontation. Now every modern Western Democracy is having it bad, a lot worse than us in Ireland and its all the blame of Bertie and FF !!! People get real and wake up and smell the coffee.


----------



## LennyBriscoe

mercman said:


> I really am unable to see as to how persons out there are simply blaming Bertie for this downturn. It is an international matter, caused by irresponsible lending by Banks, nothing more or nothing less. When the Central Bank issued warnings they were dismissed by Joe Public and the Banks themselves. When the Government did try and placed respectability on what was going on, they were met with severe confrontation. Now every modern Western Democracy is having it bad, a lot worse than us in Ireland and its all the blame of Bertie and FF !!! People get real and wake up and smell the coffee.


 
And you are a FF supporter I take it?


----------



## Sunny

mercman said:


> I really am unable to see as to how persons out there are simply blaming Bertie for this downturn. It is an international matter, caused by irresponsible lending by Banks, nothing more or nothing less. When the Central Bank issued warnings they were dismissed by Joe Public and the Banks themselves. When the Government did try and placed respectability on what was going on, they were met with severe confrontation. Now every modern Western Democracy is having it bad, a lot worse than us in Ireland and its all the blame of Bertie and FF !!! People get real and wake up and smell the coffee.


 
Flawed analysis there. Name me one country in the Industrialised world who has seen the same rapid decline of public finances as Ireland? Is this the same Government who had the height of the bubble were creating and maintaining tax breaks for developers. Holiday home in the middle of nowhere anyone? Is this the same Central Bank that wrote off any chance off a crash and continuously talked about a soft landing and sound fundamentals. This irresponsible lending that you talk about was carried out by our so called 'regulated' banks under the noses of the Financial Regulator and the Central Bank. Remember their reaction when 100% mortgages were introduced?

Of course international problems are contributing to our situation but the majority of the problems facing Ireland such as property crash, lack of competitiveness, deterioration in public finances were created in Ireland by the Irish Government and it has to be said by the Irish people.


----------



## mercman

Not active but a realist to know that if apportioning blame send it in the right direction Sure there have been some mistakes made but to blame the Government for a world wide intensive slowdown is something the iirsh Government had no control of.


----------



## Padraigb

mercman said:


> I really am unable to see as to how persons out there are simply blaming Bertie for this downturn. It is an international matter, caused by irresponsible lending by Banks, nothing more or nothing less.



That's a bit of a distortion, a distortion favoured by the government until they seemed to realise that people were not believing them. Yes, there is a huge international problem. When the impact of the US sub-prime debacle first hit the headlines our politicians and commentators assured us that Irish financial institutions were not seriously exposed, as they had not bought the dodgy securities in any great quantity. Then our own problem emerged: our banks were not exposed to the international problem because they had created a home-grown one.

Bertie is in part responsible. So is Charlie McCreevey.


----------



## Eblanoid

mercman said:


> Now every modern Western Democracy is having it bad, a lot worse than us in Ireland



Em, you are misinformed.

 Only Latvia has a worse economy than Ireland in EU

[broken link removed]

Which other worse-performing Western Democracies are you aware of?


----------



## extopia

mercman said:


> I really am unable to see as to how persons out there are simply blaming Bertie for this downturn.



How could you NOT attribute at least a little of the blame to a Taoiseach whose response to those who questioned the sustainability of the housing market was, (and I quote) "The boom times are getting even more boomer." ?


----------



## Doozie

mercman said:


> I really am unable to see as to how persons out there are simply blaming Bertie for this downturn. It is an international matter, caused by irresponsible lending by Banks, nothing more or nothing less. When the Central Bank issued warnings they were dismissed by Joe Public and the Banks themselves. When the Government did try and placed respectability on what was going on, they were met with severe confrontation. Now every modern Western Democracy is having it bad, a lot worse than us in Ireland and its all the blame of Bertie and FF !!! People get real and wake up and smell the coffee.


 
Mercman, absolutely agree that it would be ludicrous to place the blame for the current situation on one set of shoulders. Credit is certainly due to Bertie and Co. for opening the economy to international investment and creating the national pension reserve, however you must accept that the key drivers of the current situation were the FF policies of adopting a resolutely pro-cyclical spending strategy and also effectively commoditising property through CGT, IT and CT incentives and facilitating light lending regulation, to the point where completely unsustainable values were reached. 

These were conscious political decisions, which initially contributed to the defeat of the more cautious Labour/FG coalition and latterly were made despite strong warnings here from the Central Bank, ESRI, the Bacon Reports and others - a strong government is capable of leading Joe Public when necessary for the long-term good of the State, not just pandering to opinion polls and lobbies. Similarly, the Government through it's agencies is ultimately responsible for ensuring sustainable lending practices by the banks, not vice-versa. The opposition you refer to when the Government made a half-hearted attempt to implement a watered-down Bacon III came from vested construction and financial interests, not Joe Public, as I very clearly recall. At the end of the day though, the electorate made it's decision on three occasions and got the goverment it wanted, so as a democracy responsibility ultimately lies with ourselves as voters. By the time the Government and it's supporters finally realised that a frenzied trade in overvalued property funded by risky borrowing might be lucrative but does not constitute a stable economy, it was already too late. 

The property bubble was popping here before the international crunch hit, and we were heading for rough times regardless - the international situation simply compounded our own weak position and gave us all a new set of systemic problems to deal with. I think one of the most shocking aspects of the whole affair was the massive underlying fiscal weakness of the exchequer, which was revealed to all only after the construction bubble burst.


----------



## Purple

Padraigb said:


> So is Charlie McCreevey.


 Yes, but when he tried to do something about what he saw coming he was shipped off to Europe by quess who?


----------



## Mopsy

I bet emigration was the last thing on your mind when the country was on the up for the past couple of years!!

Me thinks instant gratification, instant solutions to problems and no patience is par for the course.

Having worked in the financial sector and having been there for the collapse of AIB Shares in the eighties, when shares plummeted and the talk then was nationalisation, bail out by the Government (which did happen) subsequently followed by a bank levy for millions every year for many years, and we had serious interest rates, serious high tax bands, but we stuck with it despite the slings and arrows and guess what, the bank shares came back up, as they always do. We are nowadays bombarded by so called financial experts everywhere, on the telly on the radio....I even heard a well known Dublin Comedian (no, not from Leinster house) answering questions of idiots ringing in a radio 1 show giving advice. God save us all, I say. Everybody has an opinion and we are talking about the gullible public here!!!! Loyalty and patience......look at the attitude of the Americans now that Obama is in power....listen to THEIR comments, by and large, they do the loyalty thing......good attitude works! We should ALL give it a try!












Towger said:


> Almost 52% now for AIB. Is hitting 20 cent the threshold for nationalisation? Time to emigrate soon


----------



## Purple

Excellent post Doozie.


----------



## foghorn

Mopsy said:


> Loyalty and patience......look at the attitude of the Americans now that Obama is in power....listen to THEIR comments, by and large, they do the loyalty thing......good attitude works! We should ALL give it a try!


 
I didn't even think the most delusional Zanu FFers would try to compare Barack Obama to Biffo.


----------



## z109

Mopsy said:


> Loyalty and patience......look at the attitude of the Americans now that Obama is in power....listen to THEIR comments, by and large, they do the loyalty thing......good attitude works! We should ALL give it a try!


Um, how do you know it works? It hasn't worked out too well with Dubya, now has it? Some of them even prayed for him...

Don't get me wrong, I think Mr. Obama is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but he is not a magician. There is no magic wand. He will say this and he will keep on saying it. 

So, have hope, but do not underestimate the gravity of the situation or seek to blame others for the predicament we find ourselves in. And why do we find ourselves in this predicament? Answer that and fix that problem and we are half-way to being out of it.


----------



## Mrs.B

A 2006 quote from the great B. Ahern - Friday, April 07th, 2006 

*Quote:*
"The Taoiseach has said he does not see a great problem with the levels of borrowing to buy property. 

Mr Ahern said there had been predictions of a huge downturn in 2005. 

He added the bad advice given by so many resulted in some people making mistakes when they should have bought property last year". 

http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0407/housing.html



History will not remember this p**ck kindly.


----------



## smiley

Mrs.B said:


> History will not remember this p**ck kindly.



So you dont think he will be president some day?


----------



## PaddyW

The shares now seem to be making somewhat of a recovery, touch wood!


----------



## olivia

would anyone invest now?


----------



## Mrs.B

> Originally Posted by *Mrs.B* http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=788721#post788721
> _
> History will not remember this p**ck kindly._
> 
> So you dont think he will be president some day?




Not 100% on using the quote button.

No I don't think he will be president.
IMHO he will start to attract public derision later this year. Public and political ostracism will hopefully follow.

This ar$ehole has economically butchered a generation and made us the laughing stock of the international financial world. 

After telling us the boom was to get boomier; that doomsayers should kill themselves and that bad advice given by so many resulted in some people making mistakes when they should have bought property in 2006 he turns around on November 1 last in the Irish Times with "Granted, [property] was over-priced. We all knew it was over-priced and the correction had to happen in the market". 

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/1101/1225321622165.html

WTF???

Imagine the French public response if this ar$ehole was their Premier?
I hope he rots in Hell.


----------



## dafmurray

As a civil servant myself, I am appalled at the media coverage of proposed cuts in pay/staffing in the civil service.   I am also extremely tired of civil servants and average PAYE taxpayers being left to pay for all those who profited beyond sustainable limits from the construction/housing bubble.  As it has been asked elsewhere on the general forum, just where did all the wealth created go?  It wasn't into the pockets or bank accounts of the average civil servant.  

People ranging from tradesmen to solicitors made exhorbitant amounts of money over the last 10 years and have admitted to it in some cases.  

No ordinary civil servants saw even a small fraction of that wealth at any time during the Celtic Tiger.  The most we saw was National Pay Deals that keps us behind inflation.  Now we're supposed to suffer pay/pension cuts because most other professions got greedy and reckless.  Spare me!

It's time a certain daily newspaper came clean about it's management's agenda in misrepresenting public secor pay and pensions.  This management's agenda is to cut their own staff's pensions and pay and staffing levels, once the civil service are forced to take a pay cut/freeze/pension levy or worse.

There has been a sustained campaign of misinformation and misrepresentation of working conditions and pay in the Civil Service for many years.


----------



## Doozie

This has been done to death in other threads Daf, and with respect seems a little off topic here. 

Your general point about attention being deflected - with galling hypocricy in many cases - from the layer of super-wealthy (who are facilitated by an absurdly favourable tax regime) onto ordinary PAYE-paying public servants as scapegoats during the last while is perfectly valid, as is the point that there is a ridiculous amount of misinformation about Public Service T & Cs. On the other hand you can't overlook the benefits of benchmarking (which was funded by the boom), and equally, large numbers of "tradesmen to solicitors" outside the significant urban centres did not make exhorbitant amounts in the last few years at all.

In any case, regardless of how we got here, we are where we are and need to do something. Certain malicious media and commentators are certainly focusing on pay cuts alone with absolute relish, but in reality pay cuts are just one aspect of the overall package of government spending proposals. The simple fact of the matter is that current revenue cannot meet current expenditure without exponential increases in increasingly-expensive borrowings, so you either increase revenue or reduce expenditure on all fronts or mix the two approaches - morally and logically, why should PS salaries be the only area of expenditure to be exempted? There may prove to be some legal impediments to imposing an outright cut. In the bigger picture, public sector pay cuts may stem the GGD slightly but will probably have a negative and more immediate short-term impact on spending within the economy and obviously provision of services - effectively, the savings are simply being taken out of circulation and retained by the exchequer. Greater benefits would accrue from meaningful reform and increased flexibility and efficiency measures, but this does not seem to be on the agenda at the moment on either side.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade

[broken link removed] This link shows that Southern Irish teacher salaries range from €29K to €56K.
[broken link removed] This link shows Northern Irish teacher salaries range from £20K to £33K.

I presume similar "benchmarking" applies across the public sector. I am also aware that teachers in the South have to speak Irish so it is a much more difficult profession.

Nonetheless we see what was well known even before the currency upheavals that public servants south of the border did jolly well compared to their northern counterparts. With a 40% rise in the € vs £ the comparison has become ridiculous and unsustainable.


----------



## Doozie

Bearing in mind the topic of the post, I regret posting my earlier response as we are veering off-topic into this endless and irreconcilable private v. public sector "debate" again, with the deafening sound of axes being ground in the background yet again.

Might I suggest that the thread be moderated on this basis before it's derailed?


----------



## PaddyW

AIB up to 94 cent a share now. A good sign?


----------



## Jody

please God paddyw


----------



## PaddyW

My thoughts exactly Jody.


----------



## danash

dafmurray said:


> No ordinary civil servants saw even a small fraction of that wealth at any time during the Celtic Tiger. The most we saw was National Pay Deals that keps us behind inflation. Now we're supposed to suffer pay/pension cuts because most other professions got greedy and reckless. Spare me!
> 
> quote]
> 
> 
> Dont civil servants usually live in houses - paid for by their salaries augmented by benchmarking?
> 
> Many private sector workers live in similar houses and are in danger of losing those houses as they lose their jobs. No such risk for civil servants.
> 
> So you now have a house inflated by the boom and a nice secure ( augmented, guaranteed  ) income - it all levels out in the end.
> 
> 
> I know -- off topic.


----------



## PaddyW

Ok, so from where I'm looking the banks seem to be making somewhat of a recovery. What are peoples views on this, short term recovery before a slump again, or maybe the first step on the road to an upturn in the economy?


----------



## Alex

where did you hear this? i hope it's true. it's nothing but bad news every single day. we need some good news for a change.


----------



## deargas

I heard that... no I won't.


----------

