# house price reduction?



## marion1 (13 Oct 2008)

Hi I am just wondering can anyone help me.  Wondering can I get reduction on new build in the west dublin area.  Have managed to get 20 off but just think in this market can i get more? house on sale for 395-3 bed semi.  Dont know whether to just wait a few months or buy now??? oh its so bloody hard to decide what to do!!!!


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## television (13 Oct 2008)

Marion its really not hard to decide what to do now. In the present market to buy now would be a really really really really really bad idea.


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## Thomas22 (13 Oct 2008)

20k on a 395k reduction house sounds like an absolute tiny percentage in this market.
Most people seem to be pushing for closer to 20% or 100k in your case


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## foxylady (13 Oct 2008)

Thomas22 said:


> 20k on a 395k reduction house sounds like an absolute tiny percentage in this market.
> Most people seem to be pushing for closer to 20% or 100k in your case


 


hs anyone recently purchased where they managed to get a 100k off a house priced in this region


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## RMCF (13 Oct 2008)

I would agree that 20K off a 395K house is a pittance in this market.

Saw an advert for top quality apartments in Derry recently that were reduced from £325k to £225K - now thats more like a saving in today's climate.

Even if you were to get 50k off, I'd still say it looks like a bad time to buy. This time next year your house could have fallen another 50k below that, for all any pf us know.


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## starlite68 (14 Oct 2008)

crazy to think of buying now!


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## Cabaiste (14 Oct 2008)

I wouldn't worry too much about what % you're getting off the asking price. After all, even if you get 100k off the asking price, thats not to say that the new price is not still overinflated.

For example, in the development in which I live the asking price of a new house has dropped 98k (from 398 to 300) from about 12 months ago. However the new price still represents 33.33 times the annual rent. Property investors would tell you that anything over 15 or 16 times is symthematic of a property bubble!


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## johnnyg (14 Oct 2008)

starlite68 said:


> crazy to think of buying now!


 
aren't you not putting an offer in on another house? strange logic!!

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=94095


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## starlite68 (14 Oct 2008)

thats true i have..but if circumstances allowed i would prefare to bidding in about a years time.


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## marion1 (14 Oct 2008)

Thanks guys-half thinking thats I would be mad to buy but then I just really want place but ask me this time next year and il prob say thank god i didnt buy...hopefully


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## Thomas22 (16 Oct 2008)

marion1 said:


> Thanks guys-half thinking that I would be mad to buy



And you would be fully right


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## rh-keith (21 Oct 2008)

A friend last week put in a bid for 8% (35K) less than asking price for a new house in a new developemnt and got declined. What chance is there if develpers and not willing to drop that little amount now 

Im about to put in an offer near 20% less than asking price also for a new house in a new developement. More than likely will be declined but there is no harm trying!


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## MrMan (21 Oct 2008)

marion1 said:


> Thanks guys-half thinking thats I would be mad to buy but then I just really want place but ask me this time next year and il prob say thank god i didnt buy...hopefully



If you are saying I hope that I have the sense to not buy now, then why are you even looking at houses? A lot of posters here continue to post about getting huge money knocked off and that ina years time it will be even lower again (it must be only predicting rises thats banned), One poster says your mad to buy yet is trying to buy a house herself and another thinks comparing apartments in Derry with houses in Dublin makes sense. 

The best advice that I can give is to buy for the right reasons at a time that suits you. If taking a step forward in your life entails having a home to call your own and you can well afford it I don't see the madness in pursuing that goal, by all means knock as much as you can off the price but don't be swayed by those that would make you feel like a moron for making up your own mind.


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## MrMan (21 Oct 2008)

rh-keith said:


> A friend last week put in a bid for 8% (35K) less than asking price for a new house in a new developemnt and got declined. What chance is there if develpers and not willing to drop that little amount now




An argument that is often used is put the shoe on the other foot, would you see it as a little amount if the developer were to add €35k to the asking price?


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## DerKaiser (21 Oct 2008)

Thomas22 said:


> And you would be fully right


Herd Instinct, you can tell 100,000 buyers to hold off.  Prices will naturally drop as demand falls, when they do eventually decide to buy prices will rise again as demand rises.  There are plenty of overpriced places out there but there are also bargains, 

maybe Thomas you're snapping up all the forced sales as there's no other bidders and you'd like to keep it that way.


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## Costigan (21 Oct 2008)

DerKaiser said:


> Herd Instinct, you can tell 100,000 buyers to hold off. Prices will naturally drop as demand falls, when they do eventually decide to buy prices will rise again as demand rises. There are plenty of overpriced places out there but there are also bargains,
> 
> maybe Thomas you're snapping up all the forced sales as there's no other bidders and you'd like to keep it that way.


 
Thomas 22 is on dozens of other threads encouraging everyone who'll listen not to bid within 100k of an asking price. On many of those he admits he's buying himself. 

Here's an example from last April. Nobody should take his views seriously

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=79889


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## LennyBriscoe (21 Oct 2008)

Costigan said:


> *Nobody should take his views seriously*
> 
> http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=79889


 
So what you are advising? Should people forget the haggling and offer the full price asked?


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## Costigan (21 Oct 2008)

LennyBriscoe said:


> So what you are advising? Should people forget the haggling and offer the full price asked?


 
Of course not. But following the advice of someone who says on the other thread "if they aren't laughing at your offer you haven't bid low enough" while the same person may be bidding for the property himself makes no sense.

Take a line somewhere between the two extremes (the two being an EA and Thomas 22)


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## boe (21 Oct 2008)

MrMan said:


> If you are saying I hope that I have the sense to not buy now, then why are you even looking at houses? A lot of posters here continue to post about getting huge money knocked off and that ina years time it will be even lower again (it must be only predicting rises thats banned), One poster says your mad to buy yet is trying to buy a house herself and another thinks comparing apartments in Derry with houses in Dublin makes sense.
> 
> The best advice that I can give is to buy for the right reasons at a time that suits you. If taking a step forward in your life entails having a home to call your own and you can well afford it I don't see the madness in pursuing that goal, by all means knock as much as you can off the price but don't be swayed by those that would make you feel like a moron for making up your own mind.


 
Well said.


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## ubiquitous (21 Oct 2008)

Costigan said:


> Thomas 22 is on dozens of other threads encouraging everyone who'll listen not to bid within 100k of an asking price. On many of those he admits he's buying himself.
> 
> Here's an example from last April. Nobody should take his views seriously
> 
> http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=79889



Please refrain from personally attacking other posters as per the Posting Guidelines.

Fwiw, I think its pretty daft to expect that people's views of deals and of the market in general will not evolve over a period of 6+ months.


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## Costigan (21 Oct 2008)

ubiquitous said:


> Please refrain from personally attacking other posters as per the Posting Guidelines.
> 
> Fwiw, I think its pretty daft to expect that people's views of deals and of the market in general will not evolve over a period of 6+ months.


 
It's not an attack to point out a conflict of interest.


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## television (21 Oct 2008)

ubiquitous said:


> Please refrain from personally attacking other posters as per the Posting Guidelines.
> 
> Fwiw, I think its pretty daft to expect that people's views of deals and of the market in general will not evolve over a period of 6+ months.


 

If you actually read that thread you will see that someone is bidding 250000 for a house in navan valued at 275000, what chance they would get anything near 250000 fir than house today? Zero chance.


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## Tezz (23 Oct 2008)

I don't agree 100% that now is the wrong time to buy. They say the best time to buy is when no-one else is and the best time to sell is when everyone is buying! We just bought a house for 40% below the original asking price (€1.2m down to €720k) and as it will be a family home for the next 15-20+ years it made sense in my mind. Sure, it may go down over the next 12mths but over a 20yr period it will prove a good buy. The definition of a good deal is a happy seller and a happy buyer, so if your happy, perhaps go for it?


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## David_Dublin (23 Oct 2008)

Unless you have really good reasons to buy now, e.g. you have sold your own house, dont want to rent and have a great deal on a new house, then I would not buy now. I cannot see any scenario ocurring where the market is more favourable now than it will be in 12 months for the buyer, so hanging on for another year is definitely the right way to go.


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## Senna (24 Oct 2008)

People really need to look at what a reduction in price actually means in real terms, something alot of people forget about, figures like 300k, 500k, 800k means nothing until you work out what it costs each and every month.

Take an example of a €350k house, the repayments on that would be €2098 per month (35yr 6%) now say that house drops price by 20% to €280k, so your repayments will go down to €1678.  Thats €420 every month saved for 35 years.  

Ok, your buying in a falling market and plenty of buyers are saying sure prices will increase in a few years, but thats €420 more your paying every month and the future value of your house is irrelavent unless you going to sell.  And i'd hope anyone buying now is buying a home of life and not just something there going to look to sell in 5-10 years.

The market will continue to drop for atleast another year, but my own believe is for the next 2-3 years, with another couple of years before we see even a price increase in line with inflation.  We are only in the early days of this bubble brust.  The question is, are you happy to pay that extra €200, €400, €600 every month by buying now and not waiting awhile?
If you are then the best of luck to you, a home for your loved ones might just be worth that extra and so by all means find that home now.


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## television (24 Oct 2008)

Senna said:


> People really need to look at what a reduction in price actually means in real terms, something alot of people forget about, figures like 300k, 500k, 800k means nothing until you work out what it costs each and every month.
> 
> Take an example of a €350k house, the repayments on that would be €2098 per month (35yr 6%) now say that house drops price by 20% to €280k, so your repayments will go down to €1678. Thats €420 every month saved for 35 years.
> 
> ...


 
Can some one tell me, reading the above very sensible comment, how in their right mind they would advice someone to buy now??


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## TheBlock (24 Oct 2008)

television said:


> Can some one tell me, reading the above very sensible comment, how in their right mind they would advice someone to buy now??


 

I will try. 

Similar advice "You must be mad to buy" was given to me in 1997 when I bought my first house. The advice was given by some well meaning relatives and friends who had there own property and thought the price I was paying was ludicrous. Had I waited for another two years or so the property I purchased would have almost doubled yes doubled (Neighbour sold after 2 years).

Knobody predicted the property bubble or if they did I'm sure there not posting on here but are off playing golf in Barbados similarly anyone here that can predict when we will see the bottom of the market is giving advice worth millions absolutley free. 

The only really good advice is are you/will you be comfortable making the payments on the mortgage for the lifetime of it. Could you see yourself staying in this house for the lenght of the mortgage (if the property did indeed devalue). If the answer to both of these questions is yes then by al means buy the property. There is no harm in trying to get as much of a reduction as possible but the amount of posters who seem to think that they can predict where the market will be in even 12 months never mind the three years some are suggecting are really kidding themselves and others.  By the way I am not in the property game not a developer or EA.


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## DubGus (24 Oct 2008)

Senna said:


> People really need to look at what a reduction in price actually means in real terms, something alot of people forget about, figures like 300k, 500k, 800k means nothing until you work out what it costs each and every month.
> 
> Take an example of a €350k house, the repayments on that would be €2098 per month (35yr 6%) now say that house drops price by 20% to €280k, so your repayments will go down to €1678. Thats €420 every month saved for 35 years.
> 
> ...


 

As a matter of interest, has the ban on speculating on house prices been lifted? Have you ever wondered why it was/is in place?

Thanks,

DubGus


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## Senna (24 Oct 2008)

television said:


> Can some one tell me, reading the above very sensible comment, how in their right mind they would advice someone to buy now??


 
The problem is the Irish mentality regarding property.  You must own it and own it now.  We wouldn't have had this bubble if people bought when the time was right for them to buy, instead of getting their foot on the ladder asap.  24yr olds and younger buying 1 bed flats for €450k was crazy.  
If people accept that rent is NOT dead money and then buy when it suits, then the market will find its feet again.  So if now is the right time for you, then by all means buy now. 
Finally on predicting the market, i can see no conceivable way the market will reach the bottom in 2009, and most agree, 80k more unemployed next year and this is only an estimate.  Maybe in 2010 prices will stabilize, but just my own opinion is it will take longer


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## television (24 Oct 2008)

TheBlock said:


> I will try.
> 
> Similar advice "You must be mad to buy" was given to me in 1997 when I bought my first house. The advice was given by some well meaning relatives and friends who had there own property and thought the price I was paying was ludicrous. Had I waited for another two years or so the property I purchased would have almost doubled yes doubled (Neighbour sold after 2 years).
> 
> ...


 
You tried but actually argued your self into my point.  These are different times.  You do not need to be a financial whiz to understand the house prices are going down and will continue that way for god knows how long. So buy now and it costs you 50 to 100 grand more than next year. its a no brainer. And it has absolutly nothing to do with your personal anacedote


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## Trustmeh (24 Oct 2008)

Have to agree with TheBlock.

Predict the market is going down down down gets you complete immunity on this website. Predict the market is going to do anything else gets you a ban/slap/thread lock.


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## Senna (24 Oct 2008)

yankinlk said:


> Have to agree with TheBlock.
> 
> Predict the market is going down down down gets you complete immunity on this website. Predict the market is going to do anything else gets you a ban/slap/thread lock.


 
We must be reading different websites, up-until a few weeks ago if you said the market was going down you would get a ban or your thread would be removed, one of mine posts was deleated only 2 weeks ago.  But i suppose things are that bad that now that the mods can no longer ban negivitive house price speculation, also predicting prices would rise was allowed.  (stange logic)


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## TheBlock (24 Oct 2008)

television said:


> You tried but actually argued your self into my point. These are different times. You do not need to be a financial whiz to understand the house prices are going down and will continue that way for god knows how long. So buy now and it costs you 50 to 100 grand more than next year. its a no brainer. And it has absolutly nothing to do with your personal anacedote


 
I've no idea where i argued myself into your point I thought I said anyone trying to predict where the market would be in12 months was kidding themselves but hey ho you know best.

OP If your content with price and can afford the repayments I'd go for it. The market may continue to fall (seems to be the consensus) but if it does no doubt there will be people telling you to hold out longer...then again it may rise sharply or you may lose this property to another bidder. At the end of the day it's your decision. best of luck with it.


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## television (25 Oct 2008)

TheBlock said:


> I've no idea where i argued myself into your point I thought I said anyone trying to predict where the market would be in12 months was kidding themselves but hey ho you know best.
> 
> OP If your content with price and can afford the repayments I'd go for it. The market may continue to fall (seems to be the consensus) but if it does no doubt there will be people telling you to hold out longer...then again it may rise sharply or you may lose this property to another bidder. At the end of the day it's your decision. best of luck with it.


 

All objective evidence tells us that house prices will fall over the next year to two. OP ignore that evidence pay 50-100 grand more. Saddle your self with twice that amount over the life time of a thirty year morgage.


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## television (25 Oct 2008)

> The only really good advice is are you/will you be comfortable making the payments on the mortgage for the lifetime of it.


 
If I am able and comfortable in spending 100 grand for a mars bar, does that make it worth 100 grand? why is it different for houses? Pay what the house is worth not what you can afford!


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## markowitzman (25 Oct 2008)

always buy the house you cannot afford..........leverage increases wealth in long term.


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## David_Dublin (25 Oct 2008)

television said:


> If I am able and comfortable in spending 100 grand for a mars bar, does that make it worth 100 grand? why is it different for houses? Pay what the house is worth not what you can afford!



That's a pretty lame analogy. Aren't all Mars bars the same, and dont they become valueless after a few months? Is one not able to buy an identical Mars bar elsewhere should the consumer find one overpriced. Does the Mars bar price change constantly up and down due to market forces.

Nobody is saying becuase one is will to spend an amount that it makes it worth that. You're in no position to know what the place is worth anyhow as you have not seen it. For all you know it could already be 100K better value than other similar properties and so even should the market continue to go down it will still be good value in a years time. Whatever about worth, if that is the price the seller has put on it, then that is what it costs. Worth is a completely subjective term, it has no empirical meaning in this context, particularly when one cannot be 100% sure of where things are going, how long for, not to mention no knowledge of the particular abode.


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## television (25 Oct 2008)

David_Dublin said:


> . Worth is a completely subjective term, it has no empirical meaning in this context, particularly when one cannot be 100% sure of where things are going, how long for, not to mention no knowledge of the particular abode.


 
Not so, in some cases yes worth is a subjective term but in other cases it is objective,  take a mars  bar for example its priced at seventy five sence not because of a subjective reason but because of production costs and profit margin etc. Anyway this is not really a philisophical discussion about the nature of worth. It is about the fact hat house prices are falling and are going to fall more (all objecctive evidence points this way) The question is do you think it is prudent to buy now given those circumstances. The objective answer is no.


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## David_Dublin (25 Oct 2008)

television said:


> Not so, in some cases yes worth is a subjective term but in other cases it is objective,  take a mars  bar for example its priced at seventy five sence not because of a subjective reason but because of production costs and profit margin etc. Anyway this is not really a philisophical discussion about the nature of worth. It is about the fact hat house prices are falling and are going to fall more (all objecctive evidence points this way) The question is do you think it is prudent to buy now given those circumstances. The objective answer is no.



I think you have missed my point, I was trying to show exactly what you say - that Mars bars worth is far more obvious and stable and predictable and therefore objective than that of a house, where so many other things come into play that worth becomes very subjective, and those things are in many cases person specific, therefore subjective.

If you get a great deal on a house in an area you want to live in for the rest of your life and where your family is attending school and near your work and with good transpart etc etc etc then it would be prudent to buy. In my humble opinion. There are some great deals being done at the moment, not all people who are buying at the moment are muppets, some are making good personal and financial decisions. 

If we follow your prudent advice then the only time to buy is when we have reached the bottom and prices are rising, right? Oh yeah, and we should probably all sell when prices are at their peak, just before they start to fall. That'll work. Will you please post when this happens. Of course, then it will be the right time for everyone to buy so maybe there might be more competition on each sale. See the point?


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## television (25 Oct 2008)

David_Dublin said:


> I think you have missed my point, I was trying to show exactly what you say - that Mars bars worth is far more obvious and stable and predictable and therefore objective than that of a house, where so many other things come into play that worth becomes very subjective, and those things are in many cases person specific, therefore subjective.
> 
> If you get a great deal on a house in an area you want to live in for the rest of your life and where your family is attending school and near your work and with good transpart etc etc etc then it would be prudent to buy. In my humble opinion. There are some great deals being done at the moment, not all people who are buying at the moment are muppets, some are making good personal and financial decisions.
> 
> If we follow your prudent advice then the only time to buy is when we have reached the bottom and prices are rising, right? Oh yeah, and we should probably all sell when prices are at their peak, just before they start to fall. That'll work. Will you please post when this happens. Of course, then it will be the right time for everyone to buy so maybe there might be more competition on each sale. See the point?


 
Fair points well made.  My prudent advice is to wait another 18 months to two years,  based on the objective evidence. then assess the suituation then based on the evidence avalible then. Remember the criteria you suggest for buyign now, great location etc, will be avalible at that time.


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## webtax (29 Oct 2008)

The point that many posters are making is that it is wise to be cautious before buying. The latest predictions are for the credit crisis to last 3 years internationally, and Ireland would already have the effects of its own housing bubble busting regardless of what is happening internationally. And prices will be a long time recovering, so there's no need for fear about missing the boat..
Quote from 
"But the prevailing wisdom remains that if you hold on to your house for a long time, eventually you'll do fine. Don't count on that. Yes, markets come back, but a bubble is an irrational rise in prices, and once the balloon is pricked, it doesn't magically inflate again. For a cautionary lesson, look to Nasdaq, the stock market on which most technology companies were listed at the height of the Internet and tech boom. Even before the market crash of the last weeks, Nasdaq hadn't come anywhere close to getting back to its March 2000 top."

By all means go ahead if it is your dream home and are getting a bargain, are in secure employment and can live with a period of negative equity.


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## eireabu (29 Oct 2008)

I'm not sure I agree with the general consensus that seems to be "don't buy now". I agree that house prices are falling all the time but if a seller agrees to sell a house now at a greatly reduced price then I don't see why someone shouldn't buy now.
I personally have been looking into building/buying a house for the last 2 years. I have seen a house that I like (5-bed detached circa 2500 square feet) whose asking price was €370k 6 months ago and has just this past week been reduced to €295k.
Now, if I was able to secure this house for say €240k then I would probably buy it. I don't see any reason not to in a scenario like this.


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## David_Dublin (29 Oct 2008)

eireabu said:


> I'm not sure I agree with the general consensus that seems to be "don't buy now". I agree that house prices are falling all the time but if a seller agrees to sell a house now at a greatly reduced price then I don't see why someone shouldn't buy now.
> I personally have been looking into building/buying a house for the last 2 years. I have seen a house that I like (5-bed detached circa 2500 square feet) whose asking price was €370k 6 months ago and has just this past week been reduced to €295k.
> Now, if I was able to secure this house for say €240k then I would probably buy it. I don't see any reason not to in a scenario like this.



I reckon you're right. Nobody can predict the bottom of the market. When it is obvious we have hit the bottom the number of transactions is going to increase substantially, and so will the competition for the better priced houses. 

If you can comfortably afford to pay it and it is the house for you give it serious consideration.


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## David_Dublin (29 Oct 2008)

webtax said:


> The point that many posters are making is that it is wise to be cautious before buying. The latest predictions are for the credit crisis to last 3 years internationally, and Ireland would already have the effects of its own housing bubble busting regardless of what is happening internationally. And prices will be a long time recovering, so there's no need for fear about missing the boat..
> Quote from
> "But the prevailing wisdom remains that if you hold on to your house for a long time, eventually you'll do fine. Don't count on that. Yes, markets come back, but a bubble is an irrational rise in prices, and once the balloon is pricked, it doesn't magically inflate again. For a cautionary lesson, look to Nasdaq, the stock market on which most technology companies were listed at the height of the Internet and tech boom. Even before the market crash of the last weeks, Nasdaq hadn't come anywhere close to getting back to its March 2000 top."
> 
> By all means go ahead if it is your dream home and are getting a bargain, are in secure employment and can live with a period of negative equity.


Nasdaq cannot be compared to property market, ludicrous analogy. The only thing they have in common is that they are both markets. Nothing else is relevant for a comparison.


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## webtax (29 Oct 2008)

David_Dublin said:


> Nasdaq cannot be compared to property market, ludicrous analogy. The only thing they have in common is that they are both markets. Nothing else is relevant for a comparison.



???? They were both inflationary asset bubbles driven by irrational exhuberance and freely available credit and therefore relevant for comparison


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## Senna (29 Oct 2008)

eireabu said:


> I'm not sure I agree with the general consensus that seems to be "don't buy now". I agree that house prices are falling all the time but if a seller agrees to sell a house now at a greatly reduced price then I don't see why someone shouldn't buy now.
> I personally have been looking into building/buying a house for the last 2 years. I have seen a house that I like (5-bed detached circa 2500 square feet) whose asking price was €370k 6 months ago and has just this past week been reduced to €295k.
> Now, if I was able to secure this house for say €240k then I would probably buy it. I don't see any reason not to in a scenario like this.



OK, say you do buy it now for €240k, what could you buy it for in 6/12/24 months time? If your happy to pay a bigger mortgage for its lifetime, then best of luck to you.
There are too many outside influences effecting the property market, when the market reaches the bottom, its going to stay there for a few years.  The economy is going down the toilet, unemployment is at record highs and will continue throughout next year and the investors have disappeared from the market (they purchased over 40% of property in 2006)


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