# Is it right time to invest?



## Gary017 (4 Feb 2021)

I want to invest $10000. Please recommend where should I invest this amount according to today's market status.


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## Marc (4 Feb 2021)

For the avoidance of doubt I’m not recommending an investment in the S&P 500
The data is simply to illustrate the point that trying to time the market is a Loser’s game over time you are always better off in the market (however you decide to define it)
A good starting definition of the “market” would be a broad global index like ftse all world or MSCI All world 

This puts the relative size of different markets into perspective, so for example the U.K. is now only about 5% of global equities and not nearly as important or significant as it once was.
Certain indexes are now virtually ignored by serious commentators including the Dow Jones, FTSE 100 or the ISEQ here in Ireland. They are simply too concentrated and a much more globally diversified portfolio can be achieved at very low cost.


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## Ravima (4 Feb 2021)

over time, equities tend to outperform.


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## Younginvestor93 (4 Feb 2021)

Marc said:


> View attachment 5314


A lot of people invest in the sp500 bit many say that is not diversified enough and that you should invest in global equities instead like a vanguard all world fund. What is your opinion on placing all your eggs in the US basket?


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## Sarenco (4 Feb 2021)

The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago.  The second best time is now.


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## galway_blow_in (4 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> A lot of people invest in the sp500 bit many say that is not diversified enough and that you should invest in global equities instead like a vanguard all world fund. What is your opinion on placing all your eggs in the US basket?



a world fund will have at least 50% exposure to the U.S market


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## Younginvestor93 (4 Feb 2021)

galway_blow_in said:


> a world fund will have at least 50% exposure to the U.S market


Yes amongst the rest of the world. Is it safe to bet solely on the US considering there is no real diversification in that sort of portfolio?


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## cremeegg (4 Feb 2021)

FTSE 100

Jan 2000  6,800
Jan 2005  4,800
Jan 2010  5,400
Jan 2015  6,500
Jan 2020  7,600
Today       6,500


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## Sarenco (4 Feb 2021)

You are ignoring dividends @cremeegg.

Do you ignore rental income on your rental properties?


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## PGF2016 (4 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> Yes amongst the rest of the world. Is it safe to bet solely on the US considering there is no real diversification in that sort of portfolio?


The companies in the S&P 500 are global brands and sell their wares all over the world.


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## galway_blow_in (4 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> Yes amongst the rest of the world. Is it safe to bet solely on the US considering there is no real diversification in that sort of portfolio?



The U.S market is far and away the most diverse

europe ( especially the FTSE ) is laden down with banks and energy , two zombie sectors


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## cremeegg (4 Feb 2021)

Sarenco said:


> You are ignoring dividends @cremeegg.
> 
> Do you ignore rental income on your rental properties?



No I use them to cover my forex losses. 

FTSE 100

Jan 2000  6,800 = €10,812
Jan 2005  4,800
Jan 2010  5,400
Jan 2015  6,500
Jan 2020  7,600
Today       6,500 = €7,345


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## Sarenco (4 Feb 2021)

From the start of 2000, the FTSE100 produced a total return over the next 20 years, with all dovidends reinvested, of around 4%pa Measured in Sterling, obviously.

Mind you, why anybody would restrict themselves to investing in the FTSE100 is beyond me.


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## tom_tom (4 Feb 2021)

I'm hoping the OP's next Question is how?  so what's the best (security, tax, access, best value fees) to way to invest in say the MSCI All world (outside of a pension wrapper) ?



Gary017 said:


> I want to invest $10000. Please recommend where should I invest this amount according to today's market status.


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## Younginvestor93 (5 Feb 2021)

galway_blow_in said:


> The U.S market is far and away the most diverse
> 
> europe ( especially the FTSE ) is laden down with banks and energy , two zombie sectors


How is the US market, investing in a S&P 500 diverse? It's not, you are betting on US as the dominant force.

An all world equities ETF for example is diverse. Vanguard have their VWCE which covers this for example.


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## Younginvestor93 (5 Feb 2021)

PGF2016 said:


> The companies in the S&P 500 are global brands and sell their wares all over the world.


There is some diversification because of what you said but its still a bet on the US. US may be the big player for the next 30 years or it may not.


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## PGF2016 (5 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> There is some diversification because of what you said but its still a bet on the US. US may be the big player for the next 30 years or it may not.


Alphabet / Google generates more revenue outside the US than inside. That's one cherry picked example but if the rest of the world grows Google will grow and the S&P500 will grow. I'm sure it's similar to Apple, Tesla et al. I consider that a decent level of diversification. Up to you if you think otherwise.


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## galway_blow_in (5 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> How is the US market, investing in a S&P 500 diverse? It's not, you are betting on US as the dominant force.
> 
> An all world equities ETF for example is diverse. Vanguard have their VWCE which covers this for example.




"betting on the U.S as the dominant force " has been an ultra safe bet for as long as people have been buying equities

dont fight it


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## 50andOut (5 Feb 2021)

Sarenco said:


> The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago.  The second best time is now.



Surely the second best time was 19 years 364 days ago?


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## Younginvestor93 (5 Feb 2021)

galway_blow_in said:


> "betting on the U.S as the dominant force " has been an ultra safe bet for as long as people have been buying equities
> 
> dont fight it


I am aware of that but every article from investment websites on the subject suggest, it is not diversified enough. If the dollar were to tank in value for example, or the face that the US market is grossly overvalued currently. If you type in S&P 500 and diversified into Google you will see all the arguments against only betting on the S&P500.

Curious, I presume you invest in the S&P 500, do you invest in the dollar or the euro hedged index fund?


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## Younginvestor93 (5 Feb 2021)

PGF2016 said:


> Alphabet / Google generates more revenue outside the US than inside. That's one cherry picked example but if the rest of the world grows Google will grow and the S&P500 will grow. I'm sure it's similar to Apple, Tesla et al. I consider that a decent level of diversification. Up to you if you think otherwise.





galway_blow_in said:


> "betting on the U.S as the dominant force " has been an ultra safe bet for as long as people have been buying equities
> 
> dont fight it


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RR7e1Y-HJxQ&ab_channel=BenFelix

This video might prove educational for you guys!


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## NiallSparky (5 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> I am aware of that but every article from investment websites on the subject suggest,* it is not diversified enough. If the dollar were to tank in value for example*, or the face that the US market is grossly overvalued currently. If you type in S&P 500 and diversified into Google you will see all the arguments against only betting on the S&P500.



When the Pound tanked in value after Brexit vote, the FTSE100 went up. Because it's full of international companies that do much of their business outside the market that the stock exchange is based in.

It's not reasonable to suggest that a fall in the value of would necessarily cause a significant issue in an investment matching S&P500.


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## tom_tom (5 Feb 2021)

Part question part statement actually its just a Friday muse ....an uptick in interest rates will be negative for S&P  (data suggesting inflation will be the forerunner) ....in normal  conditions Markets move in investment themes ..some sectors and individual stocks do better than other hence index investing and but ..as a hypothesis ...do markets become highly correlated during sell offs (all sectors and all indexes sell off) ? and therefore true diversification is hard to achieve  ....if higher rates as a trigger will become a head wind for property too



Younginvestor93 said:


> I am aware of that but every article from investment websites on the subject suggest, it is not diversified enough. If the dollar were to tank in value for example, or the face that the US market is grossly overvalued currently. If you type in S&P 500 and diversified into Google you will see all the arguments against only betting on the S&P500.
> 
> Curious, I presume you invest in the S&P 500, do you invest in the dollar or the euro hedged index fund?
> [/QUOTE


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## PGF2016 (5 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RR7e1Y-HJxQ&ab_channel=BenFelix
> 
> This video might prove educational for you guys!



You originally said...


Younginvestor93 said:


> Is it safe to bet solely on the US considering there is no real diversification in that sort of portfolio?


While I'm not advocating solely investing in the S&P500 I still stand by my opinion that there is diversification in the S&P500.


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## galway_blow_in (5 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> I am aware of that but every article from investment websites on the subject suggest, it is not diversified enough. If the dollar were to tank in value for example, or the face that the US market is grossly overvalued currently. If you type in S&P 500 and diversified into Google you will see all the arguments against only betting on the S&P500.
> 
> Curious, I presume you invest in the S&P 500, do you invest in the dollar or the euro hedged index fund?



No , i never see the need to hedge , a weak dollar is good for american multinationals and they operate globally so if collecting in other currencies much of the time , thats a hedge itself 

the american market is far more diversified than europe , never mind the fact that it almost always outperforms europe


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## Younginvestor93 (5 Feb 2021)

galway_blow_in said:


> No , i never see the need to hedge , a weak dollar is good for american multinationals and they operate globally so if collecting in other currencies much of the time , thats a hedge itself
> 
> the american market is far more diversified than europe , never mind the fact that it almost always outperforms europe


Nobody is talking about Europe.
We are basically talking about S & P 500 Index Fund (Stocks of USA) VS VWCE or Vanguard All World Index Fund. (Stocks of The World)


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## joe sod (5 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RR7e1Y-HJxQ&ab_channel=BenFelix
> 
> This video might prove educational for you guys!


great video he said that the performance of the S&P 500 was exceptional from 2009 to 2019 and unrepeatable, just because the S&P500 is so dominant today does not mean that it can continue to hold that position, every dog has its day even the unpopular european and UK markets of today. One startling statistic from the video that is now largely forgotten, in 1989 the japanese market was 45% of global stock market capitalisation and the S&P only 28%. now the japanese market is only 8% of global stock market capitalisation. Remember in 1989 the Japanese were world beaters and possessed the best technology companies anywhere. Today the Japanese are dominant in robotics and associated technologies , what if the US again loses its edge in technology to Japan or pan Asia.


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## galway_blow_in (5 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> Nobody is talking about Europe.
> We are basically talking about S & P 500 Index Fund (Stocks of USA) VS VWCE or Vanguard All World Index Fund. (Stocks of The World)



which is about 85% the U.S and Europe


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## LoveTrees (17 Feb 2021)

Gary017 said:


> I want to invest $10000. Please recommend where should I invest this amount according to today's market status.


Pay approx 170 eur per year and subscribe to motley fool US site. Then buy 2 of their top 10 shares they suggest and hold for many years (the more you save the more you have to diversify). I have to admit those 2 brothers are geniuses to my experience so far and their advice clearly helped beat s and p 500 a lot in time (as proven by numbers in fool.com website). Will these sentences from me become infamous in time? Maybe but so far they helped a lazy investor like me a lot... And noone is paying me for advertising them I promise... And it's true imo that SMB companies' shares are more volatile nevertheless better than blue chips in the long run as valuation...

Last but not least their twitter account is a source of wisdom to my view for generations to come!

PS: Sorry I forgot to add: I disagree with their advice to buy bitcoins though. To me bitcoins will become the 21st century tulips-crash... We will see...


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## bish123 (18 Feb 2021)

Every investor has to devise a strategy. If a subscription of €170 helps then it's well spend. But it's not simple, otherwise every investor will be millionaire. Some of the growth comes from the companies that generate wealth, while most is zero sum game- one wins at the cost of someone taking loses. The trick is not to loose any amount, even if you don't make money.


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## LoveTrees (19 Feb 2021)

bish123 said:


> Every investor has to devise a strategy. If a subscription of €170 helps then it's well spend. But it's not simple, otherwise every investor will be millionaire. Some of the growth comes from the companies that generate wealth, while most is zero sum game- one wins at the cost of someone taking loses. The trick is not to loose any amount, even if you don't make money.


I agree. For me so far so good with fool.com but only time will tell if the 2 brothers will be able to 'keep' so good in spotting where many big investors go


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