# Level 5 Countrywide from Thursday 22 October



## odyssey06

With effect from midnight on Wednesday night.

Only essential workers to attend offices.

A 5km travel limit for exercise will be in place under Level 5.

‘Support bubbles’ between two households will also be implemented for lone parents and vulnerable people; this guidance has been in the works since the last set of restrictions were announced last week (which advised against visitors to people’s homes or gardens).

Only essential retailers will be allowed to stay open: the Government is to “improve” the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme, the Taoiseach said.

Bars, restaurants and cafés will no longer be allowed to seat people outdoors for meals, and instead will only offer takeaway and delivery services.

Schools, creches and other childcare services will also remain open.

The number of guests allowed at weddings will stay at 25, in a divergence from the Level 5 restrictions in the Living with Covid roadmap, which allowed for six attendees. The 25 includes the couple getting married and celebrant.


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## odyssey06

Construction will remain open under the plan.

People will be able to meet up outdoors with one other household away from their home for situations such as exercise, within a 5km limit.


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## odyssey06

*Public transport will operate at 25% capacity* to allow those providing essential services to get to work.

Hotels, guesthouses and bed & breakfasts may remain open, but only to provide essential services.

In recognition of the impact on children and young people of restrictions, *non-contact training can continue for school-aged children, outdoors, in pods of 15*. All other training activities should be individual only.


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## odyssey06

The Government has confirmed there will be a penalty for movement outside 5km of home, with exemptions to this for essential work and essential purposes.


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## joe sod

Complete and utter madness and high risk, what if it doesn't work this time. The first lockdown had the public buy in but ultimately failed because they could not control the spread of corona when they opened up again even though they were the slowest country in Europe to open fully, with all the bars only opening for 2 weeks. Will they ultimately need to put the army on the streets to enforce this one. What happens then in 6 weeks ?


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## odyssey06

List of essential retail and services for Level 5 now updated on Gov.ie






						Ireland placed on Level 5 of the Plan for Living with COVID-19
					

Level 5 restrictions will remain in place for a period of 6 weeks.




					www.gov.ie


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## odyssey06

Elite sports only to continue...

"no training or matches should take place, with the exception of professional, elite sports and inter-county Gaelic games, horse-racing and greyhound racing, which are being permitted to continue behind closed doors".


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## EmmDee

joe sod said:


> Complete and utter madness and high risk, what if it doesn't work this time. The first lockdown had the public buy in but ultimately failed because they could not control the spread of corona when they opened up again even though they were the slowest country in Europe to open fully, with all the bars only opening for 2 weeks. Will they ultimately need to put the army on the streets to enforce this one. What happens then in 6 weeks ?



They aren't claiming this will get rid of it. The aim is to open for December knowing that it will be 6 weeks before new cases increase to 300+ per day.

Consider it wave 2 of lockdowns. Doesn't exclude possibility of further tightening in new year.


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## gianni

odyssey06 said:


> Elite sports only to continue...
> 
> "no training or matches should take place, with the exception of professional, elite sports and inter-county Gaelic games, horse-racing and greyhound racing, which are being permitted to continue behind closed doors".



I like the way they don't classify Gaelic games as elite sports. I've been saying that for years!


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## Leper

I remember when the pandemic started in Ireland. Leo Varadkar was at pains to suggest that he was not imposing a lockdown as the word meant different restrictions in other countries. We never had a lockdown. My translation of the word lockdown is being confined to home with no leeway for travel except for essential items. 

We're hearing that we are facing the 2nd "lockdown." We can travel within 5Kms of home, consequently no "lockdown." I wish our politicians and people would come to terms that we haven't seen a lockdown yet, at least. 

But, perhaps if a "real" lockdown should occur it might be better for all of us.


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## Leper

The government owes a huge apology to NPHET for the way it was berated by certain politicians following the suggestion that two weeks ago we should have Level 5 restrictions. Tony Holohan, especially has been vindicated. I don't know how our government took their eye off the ball and had us inflicted with at least two more weeks where the virus profited. 

But, the health minister Mr Donnelly  (at ) says we were not ready for Level 5. Big mistake minister! The Irish people (unlike you) were ready for some real leadership which was not provided.


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## joer

I agree. The restrictions should have happened two weeks ago. Why do they have restrictions if they are not enforced.( Michael Martin might as well have not made the announcement last night as all the news throughout the day were telling us what was going to happen anyway). 
Bring in a curfew like is France and Spain for a few weeks but enforce it. Wearing masks should be enforced. Garda checkpoints should be enforced . 
Travel restrictions should be enforced.  Nothing is enforced in Ireland it seems. Now we all have to suffer.


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## odyssey06

gianni said:


> I like the way they don't classify Gaelic games as elite sports. I've been saying that for years!



Well it's questionable whether inter county Gaelic should be classed as an elite sport, given they have day jobs where they are mingling.
It's a bit different to professional rugby or soccer players who can effectively self isolate when not playing.


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## Leper

odyssey06 said:


> Well it's questionable whether inter county Gaelic should be classed as an elite sport, given they have day jobs where they are mingling.
> It's a bit different to professional rugby or soccer players who can effectively self isolate when not playing.


 If you can't consider hurling and Gaelic Football at inter county level to be an elite sport. Then how can you call our rowers, swimmers, athletes, soccer players, hockey players, gymnasts elite? 

By the way under age training in all sports can continue within certain conditions.


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## odyssey06

Leper said:


> If you can't consider hurling and Gaelic Football at inter county level to be an elite sport. Then how can you call our rowers, swimmers, athletes, soccer players, hockey players, gymnasts elite?
> By the way under age training in all sports can continue within certain conditions.



They might the elite of their sports here, but if they have day jobs I wouldn't call them elite in the current context.
They shouldn't be travelling around the country, playing in events and then turning up for work the next day as teachers, nurses, shop assistants etc
The restriction shouldn't have used the term elite but professional really.


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## odyssey06

Worth pointing out the cost in PUP for this Level for 6 weeks is estimated at 1.2 billion.
I don't think that takes into account lost sales in VAT etc or commercial rates but am open to correction on that.


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## odyssey06

NCT testing to continue, confirmed on NCT site as a valid exemption to 5km limit.
Garages etc will also remain open in level 5 for car maintenance work.


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## WolfeTone

odyssey06 said:


> In recognition of the impact on children and young people of restrictions, *non-contact training can continue for school-aged children, outdoors, in pods of 15*.



Aka 'teams' of 15.


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## Leper

odyssey06 said:


> They might the elite of their sports here, but if they have day jobs I wouldn't call them elite in the current context.
> They shouldn't be travelling around the country, playing in events and then turning up for work the next day as teachers, nurses, shop assistants etc
> The restriction shouldn't have used the term elite but professional really.


I'd love to be telling members of the Leinster pack (rugby) that you shouldn't be collecting your kids from school,  or speaking to teachers or other parents, or going into shops having travelled around the country representing Leinster. However, my resulting two black eyes might hide my leprosy.


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## Steiny

Must say - the stay and spend scheme was a genius idea. No need to give us back a thing - takeaway is not included.... we'll just happy to be able to get a snackbox and a bottle from the offie on the way home without seeing a garda checkpoint


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## joer

Garda checkpoint near me is a joke . I have yet to see anyone stopped and I pass by at least twice a day.


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## odyssey06

Perhaps we could have tried this at Level 2?

_Gardaí are to be given new powers which will allow them call to homes and order that house parties are broken up. They will also be given the power to stop people from entering house parties or indoor gatherings which are banned under the Government’s Covid-19 restrictions. *Gardaí will not be legally permitted to enter a home but they will be able to issue fines to the occupier of a house where an illegal party is taking place*...
Once enacted, gardaí will have the legal authority to call to a home or other indoor venue and ask those present to disperse.
If those present refuse to comply with a garda request to leave the gathering, those living in the house will automatically be given a fine.
Under the new law, it will be presumed the occupier is the organiser, unless proved otherwise, and they will be issued with a fixed charge notice._


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## WolfeTone

Essential Retail Outlets

Essential Services 

I think it would have been easier to list the 'non-essential' outlets and services. 
Why do I think that _Level 5_ is actually _Level 3 Pro!_


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## Leo

odyssey06 said:


> Perhaps we could have tried this at Level 2?
> 
> _Gardaí are to be given new powers which will allow them call to homes and order that house parties are broken up. _



Do we expect the local garda who told wet pubs in Cavan there'd be no checks carried out on the day of the county final to start enforcing these restrictions?


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## odyssey06

Leo said:


> Do we expect the local garda who told wet pubs in Cavan there'd be no checks carried out on the day of the county final to start enforcing these restrictions?



Only if they don't like the person having the party, perhaps, or how well they know the person complaining, is the cynical reply for too many members of AGS.


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## Steiny

Isn't a lot of the talk and the problem here that we simply aren't being told what the sources of the clusters are and where exactly they're happening? I think the drip drip of information and anecdotes from NPHET is an insult. They should publish detailed data on where cases are happening and no, there's been no _real _enforcement apart from telling otherwise law-abiding people to turn around to shop in a supermarket nearer where they live in April.  Are house parties a real source of infection? Why isn't there a fine for not self-isolating while waiting for the result of a test? A member of the guards didn't do this in last few days! A person in the train of infection in the story of the holiday going super-spreader infected people while she was waiting for a test result.... fines for these people?


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## bradyassoc

As of today there are 315 Covid patients in hospital. In the first week of January 2018 alone, 535 patients were admitted with flu. Worth keeping in mind to put a bit of perspective on things.


			https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/previousinfluenzaseasonssurveillancereports/20172018season/Influenza%202017-2018%20Annual%20Summary_Final.pdf


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## EmmDee

bradyassoc said:


> As of today there are 315 Covid patients in hospital. In the first week of January 2018 alone, 535 patients were admitted with flu. Worth keeping in mind to put a bit of perspective on things.
> 
> 
> https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/previousinfluenzaseasonssurveillancereports/20172018season/Influenza%202017-2018%20Annual%20Summary_Final.pdf



You're so fond of this that you're posting on multiple threads. This is the "no worse than the flu" nonsense. 

From that report - total number of cases = 11,889 of which 4,713 were hospitalised. Current tracker for Covid here is over 50k cases (don't have the cummaltive total of hospitalisations). You pick one week which was worse and compare with current number as opposed to picking the high point of hospitalisations here.

What's next - that it's all a conspiracy to get us to wear masks and be implanted with chips


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## odyssey06

Steiny said:


> Isn't a lot of the talk and the problem here that we simply aren't being told what the sources of the clusters are and where exactly they're happening? I think the drip drip of information and anecdotes from NPHET is an insult. They should publish detailed data on where cases are happening and no, there's been no _real _enforcement apart from telling otherwise law-abiding people to turn around to shop in a supermarket nearer where they live in April.  Are house parties a real source of infection? Why isn't there a fine for not self-isolating while waiting for the result of a test? A member of the guards didn't do this in last few days! A person in the train of infection in the story of the holiday going super-spreader infected people while she was waiting for a test result.... fines for these people?



I've had similar thoughts myself, but then, if you picked it up at a house party \ not isolating after hols, would you disclose this in your close contact interview?
So I think any data they have on clusters is likely to be incomplete. 
This lockdown seems to be a blanket approach of reducing people's list of close contacts, the R number in a general sense rather than in any specific way targeted at sources of clusters.

And then, would fines for not isolating after a test be a deterrent to people coming forward \ getting tested?
What if Paddy says that Jimmy (a neighbour he doesn't like) was a close contact, but was nowhere near him?
He then has to go for a test and isolate until clear...

As noted earlier in thread, we have serious issue with enforcement in this country, not just of covid but in general.


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## Steiny

odyssey06 said:


> I've had similar thoughts myself, but then, if you picked it up at a house party \ not isolating after hols, would you disclose this in your close contact interview?
> So I think any data they have on clusters is likely to be incomplete.
> This lockdown seems to be a blanket approach of reducing people's list of close contacts, the R number in a general sense rather than in any specific way targeted at sources of clusters.
> 
> And then, would fines for not isolating after a test be a deterrent to people coming forward \ getting tested?
> What if Paddy says that Jimmy (a neighbour he doesn't like) was a close contact, but was nowhere near him?
> He then has to go for a test and isolate until clear...
> 
> As noted earlier in thread, we have serious issue with enforcement in this country, not just of covid but in general.


Yes, that’s a good point re stigmatisation of people going for tests. At the end of the day it’s all pretty hopeless in terms of trying to control the everyday behaviour of people. My issue is with lack of in depth data about numbers in certain areas. The cso website has more insight than the Hse one. I think we should be privy to all the data because our lives have been so profoundly disrupted by this. This lockdown is so that we can have an Xmas.... there is no plan for enhanced test and trace after this that I know of. The numbers will come down to semi manageable levels in terms of test and trace and then what? 

In this country, with our useless health bureaucracy (which nphet essentially draws from), we cant seem to move and achieve anything to help mitigate the spread. Meanwhile nphet  are lauded for ”keeping us safe”. I for one welcome enforcement, but only to a point. We are now saying that we can be fined for just physically being somewhere that is outside this magic 5k radius though not be engaged in any behaviour that is risky with regard to COVID. We ceded our rights like this once already. I suspended my doubts once in a situation that was utterly unprecedented. This time is different.


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## gianni

Leper said:


> If you can't consider hurling and Gaelic Football at inter county level to be an elite sport. Then how can you call our rowers, swimmers, athletes, soccer players, hockey players, gymnasts elite?
> 
> By the way under age training in all sports can continue within certain conditions.



I don't consider inter county anything as elite sport. Irish counties are tiny. I consider competing at an international level as being elite.


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## bradyassoc

EmmDee said:


> You're so fond of this that you're posting on multiple threads. This is the "no worse than the flu" nonsense.
> 
> From that report - total number of cases = 11,889 of which 4,713 were hospitalised. Current tracker for Covid here is over 50k cases (don't have the cummaltive total of hospitalisations). You pick one week which was worse and compare with current number as opposed to picking the high point of hospitalisations here.
> 
> What's next - that it's all a conspiracy to get us to wear masks and be implanted with chips



We also weren't testing 100k people per week for the flu in Jan 2018, if we were I expect the number of "cases" of the flu would have been significantly higher. Why can't people make the simple deduction that the more tests you have the more positive tests you will have - tests which are being taken due to an increased effort to make people to take a test.


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## odyssey06

bradyassoc said:


> We also weren't testing 100k people per week for the flu in Jan 2018, if we were I expect the number of "cases" of the flu would have been significantly higher. Why can't people make the simple deduction that the more tests you have the more positive tests you will have - tests which are being taken due to an increased effort to make people to take a test.



We don't make that deduction because our positivity rate is changing also.
In July we had days with positivity rate of 0.3%.
Our positivity rate of late has been above 5%.


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## bradyassoc

odyssey06 said:


> We don't make that deduction because our positivity rate is changing also.
> In July we had days with positivity rate of 0.3%.
> Our positivity rate of late has been above 5%.



Positivity rate, IFR, R rate, Cases, flatten the curve, don't overwhelm the hospitals - the narrative around the metrics of Covid are constantly changing.

The real metric is the death rate. The simple reality is that very few people are dying as a result of this virus.


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## EmmDee

bradyassoc said:


> The real metric is the death rate. The simple reality is that very few people are dying as a result of this virus.



You initially quoted a piece about hospitalisations.

As soon as that is blown out of the water you do the Gish dance and change the "real metric"

It's not the same as a flu... If that's your stance you need to have a word with yourself. And stop reading Facebook groups with Irish Flags which refer to "Plandemics"


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## odyssey06

bradyassoc said:


> Positivity rate, IFR, R rate, Cases, flatten the curve, don't overwhelm the hospitals - the narrative around the metrics of Covid are constantly changing.
> The real metric is the death rate. The simple reality is that very few people are dying as a result of this virus.



Simple realiity = misunderstanding or misrepresentation of what is a complex and changing situation.

So the death rate isn't the only real metric. It is one metric among others which are all connected.
The death rate isn't static because it is influenced by all the other metrics you have listed, including what restrictions are in play.
If ICU capacity is exceeded it will change.
If the age profile of the cases infected changes, it will change.
If better treatments become available, it will change.


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## Leper

gianni said:


> I don't consider inter county anything as elite sport. Irish counties are tiny. I consider competing at an international level as being elite.


I note there is some confusion regarding what is/isn't an elite sport where even we on the forum can't agree. Therefore, is it time to stop all sporting activities for at least 6 weeks?


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## odyssey06

Some sources are suggesting this breakdown\backlog is contract tracing was one of the reasons Government moved to Level 5.

_THE HSE IS to ask more than 2,000 people who received a positive Covid-19 test result last week to alert their own close contacts due to “unprecedented pressure” on Ireland’s contact tracing system... Vulnerable people over 70 and schoolchildren among the confirmed Covid-19 cases over the three days, 
however, are being called and their close contacts traced, the HSE said._









						HSE forced to ask people to alert their own close contacts due to 'unprecedented pressure'
					

The HSE decided not to contact infected people from Friday, Saturday and Sunday over fears it would lead to significant delays in contact tracing.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## joer

I don’t think that any sport is necessary , for six weeks at least . I don’t mind missing golf but only for six weeks though. I am playing my last game today 
No sport is elite in my opinion.


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## bradyassoc

Based on NPHET's calculations, for every 1,000 cases, 30-40 people will end up in hospital. But since this time last month we have had 18k cases and about 420 hospitalisations. 








						Nphet letter predicts 50 daily cases by Christmas after six-week lockdown
					

Government warned failure to impose lockdown would see around 1,000 cases a day




					www.irishtimes.com


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## Purple

joer said:


> I don’t think that any sport is necessary , for six weeks at least . I don’t mind missing golf but only for six weeks though. I am playing my last game today
> No sport is elite in my opinion.


Well there's a strong argument that Golf isn't a sport at all so


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## Purple

bradyassoc said:


> We also weren't testing 100k people per week for the flu in Jan 2018, if we were I expect the number of "cases" of the flu would have been significantly higher. Why can't people make the simple deduction that the more tests you have the more positive tests you will have - tests which are being taken due to an increased effort to make people to take a test.


The problem with saying that this is like the Flu is that from season to season "the Flu" can be relatively mild or quite severe. Yes, it's a respiratory illness and yes there is some considerable degree is fear and over reaction and yes, the gross incompetence of so many (well meaning) people in both administrative and patient contact roles in the HSE is a big part of the problem but having said all that this is not like a normal seasonal flu. 
To me the main difference is not that it is more deadly but that is it more infectious.


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## joer

It certainly is an elite sure I am playing.   Look at all the people who are going to be laid off when I stop for 6 weeks.


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## Purple

joer said:


> It certainly is an elite sure I am playing.   Look at all the people who are going to be laid off when I stop for 6 weeks.


It reminds me of the Darts commentary in the 80's when some big fat bloke swilling a pint took  his go and the commentator said "And the athlete steps up to the line..."


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## joer

What is it about big fat blokes that you seem to have a fixation with. Although the darts must have been good all the same or you would not have heard that commentary .
 There is No comparison between darts and golf no matter what way that YOU look at it. I have no interest in darts by the way. 
Golf is enjoyable whether playing on your own or with company , I think so anyway. I love playing the game. You should try it sometime....


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## Leo

bradyassoc said:


> Based on NPHET's calculations, for every 1,000 cases, 30-40 people will end up in hospital. But since this time last month we have had 18k cases and about 420 hospitalisations.



Are you confusing the total number of cases confirmed over an entire month with a daily figure for the number in hospital at that point in time?


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## Purple

joer said:


> What is it about big fat blokes that you seem to have a fixation with. Although the darts must have been good all the same or you would not have heard that commentary .
> There is No comparison between darts and golf no matter what way that YOU look at it. I have no interest in darts by the way.
> Golf is enjoyable whether playing on your own or with company , I think so anyway. I love playing the game. You should try it sometime....


I do play it the very odd time. It's hard to describe how bad I am at it but I enjoy it anyway.


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## odyssey06

There seemed to be some confusion yesterday but a spokeswoman for the department of Sports & Tourism has stated:
“We can confirm that golf courses must close under Level 5 restrictions.”


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## Purple

odyssey06 said:


> There seemed to be some confusion yesterday but a spokeswoman for the department of Sports & Tourism has stated:
> “We can confirm that golf courses must close under Level 5 restrictions.”


They aren't playing games, are they?


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## odyssey06

Purple said:


> They aren't playing games, are they?



No, they can't afford to lose another minister for agriculture \ judge \ commissioner at this critical juncture.


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## odyssey06

The government have published legislation providing for penalties for breach of restrictions on house parties, masks and 5km distance.

In the case of a first offence re: holding a house party, somebody found guilty would be subject to a fine not exceeding €1,000 or imprisonment for a term not exceeding three months or both.
In the case of a second offence somebody found guilty could be subject to a fine of €1,500 or imprisonment of up to three months.
For a third or subsequent offence there would be a fine of up to €2,500 or imprisonment of up to six months.
The legislation also states that the occupier of a home where an alleged offence occurred will be presumed to be the "event organiser".
People on their way to a house party or gathering and who refuse to leave the area in a peaceful manner when requested to do so by gardaí could face a fine of up to €1,000 or a one month prison term.

The legislation also makes a provision for a fixed penalty of up to €500 for certain offences.  These are understood to include failure to wear a mask on public transport or in a shop or exceeding the 5km limit during Level 5 without justification. 









						Legislation over parties 'could cause difficulties'
					

The Government has published legislation detailing fines for people who hold house parties during the pandemic.




					www.rte.ie


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## odyssey06

More coverage on proposed Garda powers, including provision that large protests must wear masks or can be dispersed.









						Explainer: What are the new Garda powers and what fines can be given?
					

The fines will not come into effect for another week or two.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## joer

There is no reason whatsoever to close golf courses. I will not be able to play because of the 5 km rule and that is fine. Golf is not a contact sport in any way . It is exercise and is outdoors . There is no comparison with GAA, Rugby , Hockey etc.


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## Purple

joer said:


> There is no reason whatsoever to close golf courses. I will not be able to play because of the 5 km rule and that is fine. Golf is not a contact sport in any way . It is exercise and is outdoors . There is no comparison with GAA, Rugby , Hockey etc.


I think the issue is people congregating at the entrance/shop/clubhouse/car park etc.


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## joer

But the thing is people don!t. , especially when there is no competition.  Everyone finishes at separate times , its only if there is a society that people congregate because they would be going food when everyone is finished.
For members when the game is over, unless you go for coffee etc  which will not happen now ,you pack up and go home. 
There was no mention at Golfgate about the game of golf it was all to do with the dinner afterwards.


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## bradyassoc

EmmDee said:


> You initially quoted a piece about hospitalisations.
> 
> As soon as that is blown out of the water you do the Gish dance and change the "real metric"
> 
> It's not the same as a flu... If that's your stance you need to have a word with yourself. And stop reading Facebook groups with Irish Flags which refer to "Plandemics"



It was a statement of fact, not sure how that could be "blown out of the water"


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## bradyassoc

odyssey06 said:


> Simple realiity = misunderstanding or misrepresentation of what is a complex and changing situation.
> 
> So the death rate isn't the only real metric. It is one metric among others which are all connected.
> The death rate isn't static because it is influenced by all the other metrics you have listed, including what restrictions are in play.
> If ICU capacity is exceeded it will change.
> If the age profile of the cases infected changes, it will change.
> If better treatments become available, it will change.



Deaths are not sensitive to testing, deaths are an absolute value.


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## EmmDee

bradyassoc said:


> It was a statement of fact, not sure how that could be "blown out of the water"



The "fact" you quoted about hospitalisations were out of context and incorrectly compared to current numbers (comparing total versus a point in time). That was pointed out to you and you then changed to "deaths are the real metric".

Your thesis is that this is no worse than the flu of 2017 / 2018. Leaving aside the medical differences, that is incorrect no matter what measure you pick. To pick the "real metric" - total deaths during that flu season was 255 according to the link you provided. Up to yesterday, the number for Covid was 1,868. Total ICU cases during that flu season was 191 - far less than with Covid. Total notified cases was 11,889 versus >53k (though more testing will lead to more know cases).

So why not go find a fact that proves your thesis


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## Purple

With reference to death rates this is of interest;
_The overall mortality rate is 41 per 1,000 confirmed cases, this was highest in April at 74 per 1,000 confirmed cases but has been less than five in August and September. 
The overall hospitalisation rate is 120 people per 1,000 confirmed cases, this was highest in March at 192 per 1,000 confirmed cases and is 40 in September. 
The overall ICU admission rate is 13 per 1,000 confirmed cases, this was also highest in March at 28 per 1,000 confirmed case and is four people per 1,000 cases in August and three per 1,000 in September. 
(Note: It is important to note that there is time lag between onset of symptoms and hospital admission or death. Also note that September rates are provisional). _ Source

It is fair to say that with a more than  90% drop in mortality rates in confirmed cases since the peak we should recalibrate the discussion about the disease. From the same source;
_By analysing the six months of summaries of COVID-19 confirmed cases since March in Table A, we can see the difference in the profile of people infected over this time. Women still make up the majority of confirmed cases, but in recent months this difference has lessened with men accounting for 52% of cases in August and 49% of all cases in September.

The percentage of cases amongst younger age groups has also increased in more recent months with confirmed case rates in people aged under 24 at 34% in September compared with less than 10% in March and April. *A different trend can be seen in the over 80s age group, which have accounted for 2% of cases since July compared with 20% in April.*_


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## Leo

bradyassoc said:


> It was a statement of fact, not sure how that could be "blown out of the water"



It was a statement that suggested you didn't understand the facts. You quoted a total number of confirmed cases for a month, can you point to the total number of hospitalisations over a month, or did you deliberately point to a daily figure in a deliberate attempt to misrepresent the situation?


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## bradyassoc

EmmDee said:


> The "fact" you quoted about hospitalisations were out of context and incorrectly compared to current numbers (comparing total versus a point in time). That was pointed out to you and you then changed to "deaths are the real metric".
> 
> Your thesis is that this is no worse than the flu of 2017 / 2018. Leaving aside the medical differences, that is incorrect no matter what measure you pick. To pick the "real metric" - total deaths during that flu season was 255 according to the link you provided. Up to yesterday, the number for Covid was 1,868. Total ICU cases during that flu season was 191 - far less than with Covid. Total notified cases was 11,889 versus >53k (though more testing will lead to more know cases).
> 
> So why not go find a fact that proves your thesis



I'm sorry but that's just not true, the data is widely available on this. I'm not getting into the trenches on this as I don't have the time, energy or interest in fighting anonymous people in trenches but suffice to say that we weren't actively looking for people with flu virus in 2018 by conducting 100,000 tests per week nor were distinguishing between "with" or "of" flu or documenting the positivity rate, IFR, R rate, cases, nor did we redefine what an ICU case was or what a Flu case was.

Leaving all that aside as I doubt that any facts or data I present will convince you otherwise. The most basic fact of all is that very few people are dying from COVID, this is not the killer virus we led to believe and we now know that lockdown and restrictions have little to no impact on this virus. Trying to control the virus is like trying to control or legislate which way the wind blows. You cannot find any correlation between the severity of a lockdown and the following result, it doesn't exist. Yes some people will and have died (unfortunate but not unexpected), but the vast majority will not - which is a good thing because it seems that posters like yourself genuinely can't see the situation with a larger sense of perspective anymore.

Maybe it's because you're (all) so invested in your online position, maybe it's because you've been overwhelmed with so much information and negativity on this topic in the media that it's understandably hard to see anything else. The hyper-focus on the increasing "cases" count is a perfect example. Yes cases are going up, because we are testing more thoroughly on mostly healthy people, but that tells us nothing of the outcomes or recovery in the majority of those cases. A more realistic message would be that there is a virus in the wild that may have serious - or fatal - consequences to a very small percentage of the population. However, overall most people will not contract it, or if they do the effects will be temporary and not severe. Again, people ARE going to die from this. It's unavoidable but it's also not realistic or practical to impose blanket disproportionate restrictions on the whole population to try to protect a small percentage of the most vulnerable by bulldozing legislation through the Oireachtas without reflection, scrutiny or debate which is an affront to our basic democratic procedures and to the duty of our elected representatives. These restrictions give wide ranging powers to the Minister for Health to make regulations restricting our rights including our rights to move freely, our rights to meet with others, and to enjoy a private and family life, to organise events, and to earn a living.

But on our tombstone it will say “We followed the science.”


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## Ceist Beag

One stat that I don't see published and that I feel would be useful is the daily average number of close contacts for confirmed cases. Given that we all are the answer as the ad says, it would be good to publish how we all are behaving. Only if the number of close contacts drops do we have a chance of getting control of this virus. They could even start by just using the figures from their app.


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## Purple

The number of people being tested has increased 2 fold since mid April when we reached our previous peek. The number of confirmed cases is slightly higher. The number of people dying per 1000 diagnosed has fallen by more than 90%. The statistics linked in my previous post explain this. It is without question that this disease is far less deadly that was first feared. 

The most concerning thing for me is the inability of our highly funded healthcare system to react to this issue in a suitable way. That structural incompetence is probably going to cause the most deaths as a result of the pandemic, both from Covid and non-Covid issues.


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## Sophrosyne

bradyassoc said:


> A more realistic message would be that there is a virus in the wild that may have serious - or fatal - consequences to a very small percentage of the population



But do you know what percentage of the population are at risk?


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## odyssey06

Purple said:


> The number of people being tested has increased 2 fold since mid April when we reached our previous peek. The number of confirmed cases is slightly higher. The number of people dying per 1000 diagnosed has fallen by more than 90%. The statistics linked in my previous post explain this. It is without question that this disease is far less deadly that was first feared.
> The most concerning thing for me is the inability of our highly funded healthcare system to react to this issue in a suitable way. That structural incompetence is probably going to cause the most deaths as a result of the pandemic, both from Covid and non-Covid issues.



My personal opinion is that this current lockdown phase is mis-judged.
This seems to be the lockdown phase with the capacity to be most damaging to the economy for least reduction in cases. It's not sustainable.
A shorter real lockdown or a proper run of Level 3 with actual enforcement this time would seem to be more tolerable \ sustainable to me.

When considering deaths, the virus has though, to some extent been "kept in its box" with the restrictions, and with the extra precautions we imagine vulnerable people have taken voluntarily over and above this.
How much of the reduction in number of people dying per 1000 is down to the demographic shift in the cases, versus better treatments \ hospital infection control.
From a healthcare perspective, it is not just the number of people dying, it is the  number of people this can potentially put into ICU.
Our health service has done its job in terms of saving those who could be saved - that does not seem to the case for the US where 40% of deaths were under 75.
It did not do its job in terms of protecting those most at risk in nursing homes.

There is also the hypothesis that restrictions such as masks and distancing means that the exposure of viral load is less, meaning more milder \\ asymptomatic cases than in Spring.
There is alternative hypothesis that virus has mutated to a more infectious but less severe form.
Or that there is a seasonality to this virus to do with cold \ vitamin D and it will hit hard again in winter.


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## Purple

odyssey06 said:


> From a healthcare perspective, it is not just the number of people dying, it is the number of people this can potentially put into ICU.


 Yes, and in that the HSE ,which is everyone who works for it including all the doctors, nurses, administrators and managers within the healthcare system rather than some abstract concept, has failed utterly. Despite the vast funding they receive they still can't add a meaningful amount of ICU beds and so we go into a level 5 lockdown.


odyssey06 said:


> Our health service has done its job in terms of saving those who could be saved - that does not seem to the case for the US where 40% of deaths were under 75.


 There are lots of reasons, from access to insurance and ethnicity and, most of all, obesity, which impacts on the figures in the USA.


odyssey06 said:


> It did not do its job in terms of protecting those most at risk in nursing homes.


 I think the real failure has been their inability to respond when outbreaks happen. Their lack of agility is staggering but not surprising. You can't spend a career avoiding making decisions or taking responsibility and then suddenly be great at crisis management.


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## odyssey06

Purple said:


> Yes, and in that the HSE ,which is everyone who works for it including all the doctors, nurses, administrators and managers within the healthcare system rather than some abstract concept, has failed utterly. Despite the vast funding they receive they still can't add a meaningful amount of ICU beds and so we go into a level 5 lockdown.
> There are lots of reasons, from access to insurance and ethnicity and, most of all, obesity, which impacts on the figures in the USA.
> I think the real failure has been their inability to respond when outbreaks happen. Their lack of agility is staggering but not surprising. You can't spend a career avoiding making decisions or taking responsibility and then suddenly be great at crisis management.



In terms of agility, not just the HSE... why is new legislation only coming in L5 which should have been in place for L3.
As noted by others, where was the enforcement of the existing legislation in Cavan on county final sundays... the wrong kind of agility there


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## bradyassoc

EmmDee said:


> The "fact" you quoted about hospitalisations were out of context and incorrectly compared to current numbers (comparing total versus a point in time). That was pointed out to you and you then changed to "deaths are the real metric".
> 
> Your thesis is that this is no worse than the flu of 2017 / 2018. Leaving aside the medical differences, that is incorrect no matter what measure you pick. To pick the "real metric" - total deaths during that flu season was 255 according to the link you provided. Up to yesterday, the number for Covid was 1,868. Total ICU cases during that flu season was 191 - far less than with Covid. Total notified cases was 11,889 versus >53k (though more testing will lead to more know cases).
> 
> So why not go find a fact that proves your thesis



As for the flu comparison, it is now evident that this virus is manifestly on the level of a bad flu. At the beginning people were worried that this is a very dangerous and new virus, it isn't. It is now quite clear that the infection fatality rate is comparable with the flu. We could argue that it's a bit more or bit less but basically it's a bit more and in many groups especially for younger people it is significantly lower. This is not a new plague, this virus is within the scope of winter deaths that we have dealt with for the last 100 years.


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## Leo

bradyassoc said:


> As for the flu comparison, it is now evident that this virus is manifestly on the level of a bad flu.
> ...
> This is not a new plague, this virus is within the scope of winter deaths that we have dealt with for the last 100 years.



A bad flu year in Ireland is considered one where around ~500 people die from direct and indirect causes. It's more often closer to the lower end of the scale around 200.

With COVID-19 we have shut down large sections of our society, restricted our movement, massively cut back on social interactions and still we are now approaching 1,700 deaths with two months yet to go.

We absolutely need to adjust to enable society to live alongside this, but to pretend this is no worse than a bad flu is quite frankly nonsense.


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## odyssey06

Good explainer article from The Journal on non-essential retailers during L5, that they offer click and collect within 5kms.








						Explainer: Why are some non-essential retailers continuing to operate in Level 5?
					

What exactly do the government guidelines say about retailers?




					www.thejournal.ie


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## odyssey06

According to the Independent:
_Covid restrictions on travel between counties and household visits will only be eased just before Christmas under plans being discussed by Government. When the lockdown comes to an end on December 1 the Government is believed to be planning to move into Level 3 restrictions for at least two weeks before easing coronavirus regulations further. Under Level 3 rules people can only travel within their own county and no more than two households can meet indoors in a family home._









						Travel and house visit curbs to remain until just before Christmas to reduce Covid
					

Covid restrictions on travel between counties and household visits will only be eased just before Christmas under plans being discussed by Government.




					www.independent.ie


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## joer

Hopefully golf will be back in full swing  fore .


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## odyssey06

joer said:


> Hopefully golf will be back in full swing  fore .



It appears to be a high-risk endeavour, for your career if not your health.
After a game of golf, should be like returning from a red list country, mandatory self isolation for x days...


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## joer

Absolutely no risk whatsoever. Don"t mind Golfgate.......


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## Purple

joer said:


> Absolutely no risk whatsoever. Don"t mind Golfgate.......


Who'll be the Judge of that?


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## joer

I will for the right price


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## joe sod

I think the aim to try and get the corona numbers down to 100 cases per day or lower by December 1 is unachievable, also prolonging the lockdown later than december 1 will also not work. They are just going to have to accept the numbers of probably 150 to 300 cases per day as the best they can get. People are tired of the lockdowns at this stage and are simply not abiding by them, the fear factor is gone. The very high numbers throughout Europe now with the whole continent as a red zone means that stabilization until the vaccine arrives is the only option. Therefore they need to licence the vaccine as quickly as possible.


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## Grizzly

joe sod said:


> People are tired of the lockdowns at this stage and are simply not abiding by them, the fear factor is gone.


Not everyone had the fear. Take one example. Look at the staff working on the checkouts in the larger supermarkets. They don't have to wear masks because they are behind perspex screens. (Very flimsy and doubtful as to their safety, I have to add).  Most staff don't wear masks only because they don't have to.  I know wearing a mask all day would be uncomfortable but I think that I would be putting safety before comfort if it were me working there.


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## Leo

joe sod said:


> They are just going to have to accept the numbers of probably 150 to 300 cases per day as the best they can get. People are tired of the lockdowns at this stage and are simply not abiding by them, the fear factor is gone.



Numbers were >1,200 in the days before we entered level 5. How would numbers be held at 150-300 if current measures were eased?


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## joe sod

A lot of the reduction happened under level 3, the biggest reductions happened in the first weeks of level 5. I just think nphet need to be realistic about what is achievable given what's happening in Europe and that many people will travel home  on holidays over Christmas anyways. We have an open border with the north, if they maintain restrictions beyond December 1, people will go north to get their hair cut or go to a bar especially as its Christmas time.


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## Leo

joe sod said:


> A lot of the reduction happened under level 3,



What reduction? The whole country moved to level 3 on October 6th with numbers on the rise. On the 6th we reported 424 new cases, there was no day during the level 3 restrictions that posted lower numbers. Over the next three weeks of level 3, daily numbers trebled. 



joe sod said:


> I just think nphet need to be realistic about what is achievable given what's happening in Europe and that many people will travel home on holidays over Christmas anyways.



You haven't said how it would be possible to achieve 150-300 cases per day with reduced restrictions.


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## joe sod

Leo said:


> You haven't said how it would be possible to achieve 150-300 cases per day with reduced restrictions.



What I was saying is the best that can be achieved is 150-300 cases per day with the current restrictions by December 1 but even that is now looking ambitious, the Nphet target of below 100 cases per day is unattainable. I did not agree with going to level 5 but staying at level 3 and yes we would have a higher daily rate of maybe 500 cases per day. I do not think the enormous cost of going to level 5 with 150.000 extra unemployed and a cost of 1.5 billion euro extra on top of what we were already paying is justified. Very little attention is being payed to the cost of all this.


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## Leo

joe sod said:


> I did not agree with going to level 5 but staying at level 3 and yes we would have a higher daily rate of maybe 500 cases per day. I do not think the enormous cost of going to level 5 with 150.000 extra unemployed and a cost of 1.5 billion euro extra on top of what we were already paying is justified. Very little attention is being payed to the cost of all this.



Fait enough, I haven't seen any detail on what the cost implications would be for 500 cases a day to compare though.


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