# Why has the Lotto jackpot not been won ?



## twofor1 (18 Nov 2021)

The Lotto jackpot has been capped at €19 million since October and has not been won since June.

In the past 8 draws alone, 390 people have matched 5 numbers out of the first 6 balls, so since June probably around 780 would have matched 5 numbers out of the first 6 balls.

Given that there are only 47 numbers in the draw, statistically (I think) 16 people out of that 780 should have picked the 6th number, but no one has.

Just curious and trying to get my head around it, is this a remarkable coincidence or am I missing something ?


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## NoRegretsCoyote (18 Nov 2021)

I don't follow this but one explanation is that the patterns of lotto picks are not at all random. People tend to space them out across the distribution even though 1,2,3,4,5,6 is as likely as any other. People have their "own" numbers as well.

The National Lottery has excellent data on this which of course they don't make public.

So it could have been that the "winning" combinations have been falling on patterns that aren't commonly picked.

Most people are not very numerate. In the 90s I saw a newspaper article showing how many times each number had come out. The implication was that you were better off picking numbers that had come out less frequently in the past as they were more likely to come out in future, which is of course nonsense.


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## Leper (18 Nov 2021)

It's all permutations and combinations and of course some luck and St-Patrick's chances if he lived to this day and if he did two lines in the lotto daily most likely he still would not have wont the Lotto jackpot. Most of us do the Lotto, but only the braindead will form an opinion that it is not some additional form of tax.


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## MrEarl (18 Nov 2021)

The odds are really bad, it's that simple!

I think they've been allowed much too free a hand, with regards to what the odds are of the big prize being won,  at what point its capped, when it isn't won after a certain point, then split into multiple prize draws with the same tickets given two chances to win etc.

I also don't recall seeing any coverage on the "good causes" that have benefited from Lotto funds, in recent years - do they still have to do that?


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## PGF2016 (18 Nov 2021)

MrEarl said:


> I also don't recall seeing any coverage on the "good causes" that have benefited from Lotto funds, in recent years - do they still have to do that?


I've recently seen online ads showing the good causes they support.


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## michaelm (18 Nov 2021)

twofor1 said:


> Given that there are only 47 numbers in the draw, statistically (I think) 16 people out of that 780 should have picked the 6th number, but no one has.
> 
> Just curious and trying to get my head around it, is this a remarkable coincidence or am I missing something ?


Your back-of -the-envelope calculation could only work if the 780 people had the same 5 numbers.  But they will have different sets of 5 numbers.  They didn't match 5 out of the first 6 like you suggest just 5 out of all 6.

There are 6 combinations of 5 numbers (in a set of 6).  My very rough calculation (open to correction) would be 780/6/42 = 3.  So you might have expected 3 of those 780 to win, but not be surprised that they didn't.  Chances of getting 5 numbers is about 1 in 1.5m, chances of all 6 is closer to 1 in 11m.


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## twofor1 (18 Nov 2021)

michaelm said:


> Your back-of -the-envelope calculation could only work if the 780 people had the same 5 numbers.  But they will have different sets of 5 numbers.


Yes, I see that now thanks.


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## RetirementPlan (18 Nov 2021)

MrEarl said:


> I also don't recall seeing any coverage on the "good causes" that have benefited from Lotto funds, in recent years - do they still have to do that?


This story has gotten fairly heavy coverage on TV in recent weeks;


			https://twitter.com/NationalLottery/status/1412111367268704259


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## Purple (18 Nov 2021)

The Lottery is a tax on the innumerate. 
There is one chance is approximately 10,700,000 of winning.


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## gianni (18 Nov 2021)

I like to think I'm superior as I rarely do it and, when I do, I play the Daily Million game. It has better odds and it costs €1.

But the joke is on me...the odds are still ridiculously high. Yet I still throw my money away, go figure.


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## odyssey06 (18 Nov 2021)

SO what I'm hearing is now is a good time to play with some random numbers?
Just as unlikely to win but if you do win you win bigly...


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## time to plan (18 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> The Lottery is a tax on the innumerate.
> There is one chance is approximately 10,700,000 of winning.


It's approximately the same odds as guessing someone's phone number. But your comment reminds me of a good friend grumbling about people lining up to hand over their Stupid Tax as he queued behind them to buy 20 cigarettes.


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## ashambles (18 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> The Lottery is a tax on the innumerate.
> There is one chance is approximately 10,700,000 of winning.


Innumerate but better off people won't touch the lotto.  Plenty of phenomenally stupid golf club members have benefited from lotto funds but don't buy into it. 

Also  90%+ of the population couldn't calculate the odds even if handed a scientific calculator - which generally come with a handy button for the calculation.

It's a tax on hope, for the less well off and older people on limited fixed incomes.


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## Purple (18 Nov 2021)

ashambles said:


> Innumerate but better off people won't touch the lotto. Plenty of phenomenally stupid golf club members have benefited from lotto funds but don't buy into it.


Yes, those poor and needy Golf Club members...
Great to see us getting our priorities right.


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## twofor1 (18 Nov 2021)

Very long odds alright with the National Lottery even on the smaller prizes. I used to do 2 lines with the plus so €6 for each draw, maybe a few times a year I would win a tenner or less and win the occasional scratch card.

I now do a few numbers on the National Lottery in the bookies instead and regularly get a reasonable return, admittedly I give the bookie more than he gives me but my return is far higher than I was getting from the National Lottery.

I could of course break even every week by not placing any bet, but where's the fun in that.


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## skrooge (18 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> The Lottery is a tax on the innumerate.
> There is one chance is approximately 10,700,000 of winning.



Purple you machine! With your heart of stone... I'm fractionally numerate and on occasion do the lotto. 

While I agree with your appreciation of the odds you can't put a value on the that feeling of hope that a BIG payout brings to some. 

I was going to say it's not all about the numbers but we all know it is.....


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## Purple (18 Nov 2021)

skrooge said:


> Purple you machine! With your heart of stone... I'm fractionally numerate and on occasion do the lotto.
> 
> While I agree with your appreciation of the odds you can't put a value on the that feeling of hope that a BIG payout brings to some.
> 
> I was going to say it's not all about the numbers but we all know it is.....


I do the Lotto the odd time as well but I'm dyslexic and not that bright so I have an excuse.


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## Monbretia (18 Nov 2021)

I do it a few times a year, maybe more if it's big, but only when I'm travelling somewhere around the country so basically never do it in my home town just in case!  Keep it quiet and all that


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## Purple (18 Nov 2021)

Monbretia said:


> I do it a few times a year, maybe more if it's big, but only when I'm travelling somewhere around the country so basically never do it in my home town just in case!  Keep it quiet and all that


There's no point in doing it in Dublin. Either the culchies are very lucky or inveterate gamblers.


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## twofor1 (18 Nov 2021)

Monbretia said:


> I do it a few times a year, maybe more if it's big, but only when I'm travelling somewhere around the country so basically never do it in my home town just in case!  Keep it quiet and all that


Yeah, a €19 million win would attract a bit of publicity alright.

I asked a friend what he would do about the begging letters if he was to win the jackpot, he said he would keep sending them.


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## Monbretia (18 Nov 2021)

twofor1 said:


> Yeah, a €19 million win would attract a bit of publicity alright.
> 
> I asked a friend what he would do about the begging letters if he was to win the jackpot, he said he would keep sending them.



My mother won the Spot the Ball thingy in Sunday Independent many many years ago, think it was about 1k, good money at the time, anyway she got loads of begging letters!


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## Sunny (18 Nov 2021)

To think I used to keep telling myself 'someone has to win it' to justify to the wife throwing my hard earned money away.......Turns out that hasn't be true for a long time now.....


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## RetirementPlan (18 Nov 2021)

ashambles said:


> Innumerate but better off people won't touch the lotto.  Plenty of phenomenally stupid golf club members have benefited from lotto funds but don't buy into it.
> 
> Also  90%+ of the population couldn't calculate the odds even if handed a scientific calculator - which generally come with a handy button for the calculation.
> 
> It's a tax on hope, for the less well off and older people on limited fixed incomes.


Maybe we should just bite the bullet and have golf redesignated as not being a sport?


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## keving1989 (18 Nov 2021)

Here is your answer: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Teachers%27_Pension_Plan


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## odyssey06 (18 Nov 2021)

Surely it is time for the AAM syndicate to swoop in...


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## twofor1 (19 Nov 2021)

Urgent probe into 'unwinnable lotto' needed, says Fine Gael TD​Fine Gael TD Bernard Durkan has called for an urgent probe into the “unwinnable” National Lottery jackpot.
Mr Durkans comments come after the biweekly national lotto was rolled over again this week.
The record €19 million jackpot has rolled over 46 times since it was last won on the 6th of June, which has prompted the Fine Gael TD to raise questions.
“It’s been almost six months since it was won. This didn’t happen in Ronan Collins’ day,” Mr Durkan said.
“The jackpot has been stuck on €19m since September. What’s going on?
“We need a full investigation and audit into the draw,” Mr Durkan added.


https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland...e-lotto-needed-says-fine-gael-td-1216012.html


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## Leo (19 Nov 2021)

twofor1 said:


> Fine Gael TD Bernard Durkan has called for an urgent probe into the “unwinnable” National Lottery jackpot.


More like urgent lessons in probability required for attention seeking TD who wants to detract from multiple real issues affecting the electorate!


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## joer (19 Nov 2021)

Leo said:


> More like urgent lessons in probability required for attention seeking TD who wants to detract from multiple real issues affecting the electorate!


Or perhaps he is upset that he hasn't won it


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## Purple (19 Nov 2021)

The Lotto has added more and more numbers over the years. It started with 36 numbers and now it's 47. 
That means the odds have changed from just under one in two million to one in eleven million.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (19 Nov 2021)

Leo said:


> More like urgent lessons in probability required for attention seeking TD


I think he understands what makes it more probable he'll be elected. He's managed it 11 out of 12 times!


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## RetirementPlan (19 Nov 2021)

Leo said:


> More like urgent lessons in probability required for attention seeking TD who wants to detract from multiple real issues affecting the electorate!


Definitely need to get Ronan Collins back, and good oul Alex from Stokes Kennedy Crowley - now they were real Lotto men.


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## joer (19 Nov 2021)

Now that there is an 'investigation' into the fact that the Lotto hasn't been won , what are the odds of it been won tomorrow night ..


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## gianni (19 Nov 2021)

joer said:


> Now that there is an 'investigation' into the fact that the Lotto hasn't been won , what are the odds of it been won tomorrow night ..


The same as it being won any other night?


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## cremeegg (19 Nov 2021)

twofor1 said:


> The Lotto jackpot has been capped at €19 million since October





Purple said:


> There is one chance is approximately 10,700,000 of winning.





gianni said:


> and it costs €1.



So the fair value of a ticket is positive.

= Lots of bankrupt statisticians.


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## joer (19 Nov 2021)

If the jackpot is won tomorrow night will it be seen as a good thing or suspicious ......I wonder.


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## odyssey06 (19 Nov 2021)

These Canadians are walking all over us... they come across all nice polite dull and boring but they are really robbing us. We know all these so-called 'Good Causes' are just fronts for Canadian companies.

_FINE GAEL TD Bernard Durkan has called on the National Lottery to remove two balls from the Lotto draw drum to increase the likelihood of someone winning the jackpot, declaring: “This never happened in Ronan Collins’ day”_









						TD namechecks Ronan Collins, Shergar and Squid Game in plea to drop two balls from Lotto draw
					

Bernard Durkan wants punters to have a better chance of winning after months without a jackpot victory.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## ATC110 (19 Nov 2021)

A tribunal of enquiry might tell us in the future


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## odyssey06 (19 Nov 2021)

ATC110 said:


> A tribunal of enquiry might tell us in the future


We can have a lottery to pay for it...


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## ATC110 (19 Nov 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> We can have a lottery to pay for it...


Or ask a certain ex-taoiseach for a digout


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## RetirementPlan (19 Nov 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> These Canadians are walking all over us... they come across all nice polite dull and boring but they are really robbing us. We know all these so-called 'Good Causes' are just fronts for Canadian companies.


Honestly not sure if this is a serious allegation or not. If it is intended to be serious, then you might want to come up with some evidence to support it.

The Canadians don't decide what causes to support afaik. Monies go to various Government departments, who have various distribution schemes, like the Sports Capital grant scheme.


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## odyssey06 (19 Nov 2021)

RetirementPlan said:


> Honestly not sure if this is a serious allegation or not. If it is intended to be serious, then you might want to come up with some evidence to support it.
> 
> The Canadians don't decide what causes to support afaik. Monies go to various Government departments, who have various distribution schemes, like the Sports Capital grant scheme.


It's only in the depths here we can speak the truth of these matters ... so obviously you are in on this scam... what was your price?
A Canada Goose jacket? A year's supply of Molson beer? Due South on DVD?

The truth about Canada's hidden agenda will emerge...








						Robin Williams - Blame Canada (Live at Oscar 1999)
					

Instagram: @la_lio_tv




					www.youtube.com


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## MrEarl (19 Nov 2021)

joer said:


> If the jackpot is won tomorrow night will it be seen as a good thing or suspicious ......I wonder.


Well, if a certain FG TD (or one of his faculty).wins it,  I think its gonna be a tad suspicious, don't you?


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## Leper (20 Nov 2021)

Bottom Line:- The Lotto is an easy and relatively cheap gamble in chasing a dream. Most of us want to win the jackpot and most of us will fail, but the dream is inbuilt in us. And nobody gets hurt in the process. 

Cheap form of publicity:- Some of our politicians fire cheap shots at the Lottery and know it's and easy form of publicity for them. 

Lotto is here to stay and the odds are never going to get better. I have done two lines of the same numbers in Lotto for each draw since its launch and todate I've lost nearly all of what I spent, but on two occasions I had only one number short of winning the jackpot, so I live in hope. But, then again what good is a Lotto jackpot win to me at my age? Furthermore, it's only money. And haven't we qualified professional accountants looking after the fairness of Lotto, although on one occasion they had difficulty differentiating between the numbers of 6 and 9.


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## Duke of Marmalade (20 Nov 2021)

twofor1 said:


> The Lotto jackpot has been capped at €19 million since October and has not been won since June.
> 
> In the past 8 draws alone, 390 people have matched 5 numbers out of the first 6 balls, so since June probably around 780 would have matched 5 numbers out of the first 6 balls.
> 
> ...


There are 246 ways a match 5 can miss the jackpot.  6 choices for the missing winning number and 41 choices to replace it with a losing number.  6 * 41 = 246.
The chances of 780 match 5s missing the jackpot is about 4% (Poisson distribution for the nerds who are watching) as we would expect about 3 to hit. Note this is not far off 1/6th of your guesstimate which echoes with other explanations.
This is a low probability and the sequence is unusual but not beyond the realms of possibility - slightly higher than the odds of a single number coming up on a roulette wheel.
If your guesstimate had been correct the chances of that outcome would be about 1 in a billion and that would certainly justify an investigation.


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## Duke of Marmalade (20 Nov 2021)

Leper said:


> Bottom Line:- The Lotto is an easy and relatively cheap gamble in chasing a dream. Most of us want to win the jackpot and most of us will fail, but the dream is inbuilt in us. And nobody gets hurt in the process.
> 
> Cheap form of publicity:- Some of our politicians fire cheap shots at the Lottery and know it's and easy form of publicity for them.
> 
> Lotto is here to stay and the odds are never going to get better. I have done two lines of the same numbers in Lotto for each draw since its launch and todate I've lost nearly all of what I spent, but on two occasions I had only one number short of winning the jackpot, so I live in hope. But, then again what good is a Lotto jackpot win to me at my age? Furthermore, it's only money. And haven't we qualified professional accountants looking after the fairness of Lotto, although on one occasion they had difficulty differentiating between the numbers of 6 and 9.


Keep dreaming of that million euro coffee machine


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## Baby boomer (20 Nov 2021)

Just for comparison.

Play Lotto and you get back, on average, about 50c in the Euro. 

Put on a bet with Paddy Power and it's about 80c in the Euro.

Hit the slots in Vegas and your expected return will be about 90%. Try roulette and that goes up to about 97c in the Euro.  Baccarat and Craps, if you choose the right bet, return about 99c in the Euro.  Play disciplined blackjack and you can get about 99.5c in the Euro.

Lotto is really, really bad value.  But you're paying for the dream and the mental fun of planning how you'd divvy up (or spend!) the winnings you almost certainly won't get. 

While it might well be a tax on stupidity, or innumeracy, I just wish all taxes were equally voluntary.


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## Leper (20 Nov 2021)

Of course, the Lotto is bad value for money. But, people tend not to look back on previous numbers or study what numbers come out best or numbers that come out worst. It take only seconds to fill in a Lotto form and there's no great effort or science picking your numbers unless you want to make it so. It's around 11M to 1 that your first line will win or 11M to 1 that your second line will win the jackpot. But, so what you could spend your money worse. It was always meant to be fun and with some exceptions has been fun. 

If you want to see where gambling is not fun, just visit one of the many casinos around Ireland or even people watch the braindead in bookies offices and the way they chase lost money. Personally, I visit the bookies most days but I know my weekly amount for betting on the gee-gees and never do I exceed the amount. If I win, I collect and go. Normally, I lose, but not so much money and I enjoy putting my racing knowledge against the expert punters. I haven't mentioned online gambling and there's where the big money is generally lost.


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## Duke of Marmalade (20 Nov 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> Just for comparison.
> 
> Play Lotto and you get back, on average, about 50c in the Euro.


Yes, but this figure is hugely distorted by the carry forward jackpot of €19m.
To know the expected percentage pay-out ratio on tonight's draw one needs to know how many lines  will be bought.  (You actually also need to know the more tricky figure for the level of duplication in lines bought.)
Last Saturday €96k was paid in Match 4 prizes.  The National Lottery rules state this to be of the order of 5.46% of the Prize Fund which in turn is 52% of the total amounts spent on lines.  So that suggests to me about €4m worth of lines bought or 2m lines.
Now because the jackpot is capped and carried over, all of the 46% of the Prize Fund which is normally allocated to the jackpot is paid in Match 5 prizes.   In this way the €19m carried forward jackpot is a "bonus" *in addition to* the normal 52% pay-out.
2 million tickets have a 17% chance of scooping the jackpot, allowing for an average rate of duplication.  That translates as an expected pay-out ratio of 17% x 19m/4m which equals 80.7% so for €4m purchases of lotto tickets the overall expected pay-out ratio is 52% + 80.7% equals *132.7%*.

This pay-out ratio reduces if there are more tickets purchased and with 15m tickets purchased for €30m the pay-out ratio becomes 100%.

But at even current heightened rates of participation the Lotto is the best bet in town by far.

_* Updated for precise figures_


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## Duke of Marmalade (20 Nov 2021)

Jackpot again not won, which is of course no big surprise as I estimate the chances of it being won at any drawing is about 17%.
Lotto remains the best value bet in town with a pay-out ratio of c. 133%, though no better than before this draw as the jackpot share of the pool (c. 24%) is not rolling up but is being distributed to the Match 5 plus Bonus ball.

The corollary is that when the jackpot is won and we start all over again the Lotto is very bad value indeed.  For whilst the pay-out ratio reverts to 52% about 20%* of this will go to future tickets as the likelihood is that the jackpot will not be won.  That is a pay-out ratio of about 32%

* _The jackpot share when the cap is not applicable is 46% of the Prize Fund which is itself 52% of total ticket money and at more normal levels of participation the failure rate is about 85%.  46% x 52% x 85% = 20.3%_


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## joer (21 Nov 2021)

Oh my god....the Lotto hasn't been won. Surely the TDs will go on strike


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## Duke of Marmalade (22 Nov 2021)

Doing a bit more analysis on this.  Lots of data on the National Lottery website, though I cannot find the actual amount invested.  But this can be estimated very accurately from the number of Match 3 winners.  This was 32,999 on Saturday.  The odds are almost exactly 50/1 against a Match 3 so that gives an accurate estimate of the number of lines as 1.65m for a gross purchase of €3.3M.  (my earlier estimate was 2m lines for the previous Saturday using a different estimator).
Back when there was no carry forward jackpot on Saturday July 10th the equivalent figure was 865k lines.
So assuming a linear relationship between jackpot carry forward and number of lines purchased I get the following ready reckoner for the *expected *(i.e. average) pay-out ratio on lotto.  (Of course, the *actual *pay-out ratio will depend on whether the jackpot is won.)

No carry forward jackpot: 37%
€10m carry forward : 72%
€17m carry forward:  100%
€19m carry forward but capping not kicking in yet:  110%
€19m carry forward and capping applicable:  134%

For jackpot carry forward in excess of €17m it is "rational" to play Lotto and vice versa.  It is particularly rational when, as now, the cap has kicked in.

The stated pay-out ratio is 52% and that is what it will be overall but this varies from 37% when there is no carry forward jackpot to 134% when the cap has kicked in.  Basically, when there is no carry forward jackpot you expect that 15% of your "investment" is in fact going to future generations who will enjoy these past carry forwards.  This is the opposite of a Ponzi scheme.


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## Purple (22 Nov 2021)

I knew it wouldn't be won. That's why I didn't play it... keeping my powder dry...


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## odyssey06 (22 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> I knew it wouldn't be won. That's why I didn't play it... keeping my powder dry...


Make sure to keep us in the loop on when you reckon it will be won... and any hints to the numbers aswell, eh?


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## Purple (22 Nov 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> Make sure to keep us in the loop on when you reckon it will be won... and any hints to the numbers aswell, eh?


No way, I'm not sharing it!
If, I mean when, when I win I'll be employing someone to post here on my behalf so you'll probably notice an improvement in that area. Other than that there'll ne no changes.


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## joer (22 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> No way, I'm not sharing it!
> If, I mean when, when I win I'll be employing someone to post here on my behalf so you'll probably notice an improvement in that area. Other than that there'll ne no changes.


I think that you should share it as you wouldn't have the nerves to handle that much money .....but forget the others .,.you can share it with me and I won't tell anyone ..,.


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## Purple (22 Nov 2021)

joer said:


> I think that you should share it as you wouldn't have the nerves to handle that much money .....but forget the others .,.you can share it with me and I won't tell anyone ..,.


It'll be grand, I'll just put it with all the rest.


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## Horatio (22 Nov 2021)

twofor1 said:


> Yeah, a €19 million win would attract a bit of publicity alright.
> 
> I asked a friend what he would do about the begging letters if he was to win the jackpot, he said he would keep sending them.


 Brilliant!


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## odyssey06 (22 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> No way, I'm not sharing it!
> If, I mean when, when I win I'll be employing someone to post here on my behalf so you'll probably notice an improvement in that area. Other than that there'll ne no changes.


I think we'll have to get the mods to set a post count limit in that case!


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## joer (22 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> It'll be grand, I'll just put it with all the rest.


Make sure and stack them on their edges so that they will all fit ......I'll even help .,...And I'll call you if I need a hand to do the same


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## Purple (22 Nov 2021)

joer said:


> Make sure and stack them on their edges so that they will all fit ......I'll even help .,...And I'll call you if I need a hand to do the same


Good advice, thanks and I'll certainly take you up on your offer...


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## Duke of Marmalade (23 Nov 2021)

Further observation:
On Saturday 20th Nov there were 40 winners of Match 5, each receiving just over €1,500.  The numbers drawn were 9,14,22,32,38,42
On Saturday 6th Nov there were 120  winners of Match 5, each receiving just over €500. The numbers drawn were 5,6,9,15,19,25
And the pattern is repeated for the lower prizes.

We see here the "birthday" effect.  The earlier draw could have come from all birthdays, not so the later draw.  There is also the factor that original Lotto fans will have stuck to a selection of numbers which in those days had to come from 1 to 36.
The message is that you greatly reduce your expected individual* pay-out ratio by sticking to numbers 36 and under and vice versa.  But the ploy  of sticking to numbers in excess of 36 would also probably backfire as there only need to be about 1% smart asses doing that to counter the birthday syndrome.  In a similar way the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 have every bit as much chance as any other selection but there only needs to be 1 in a 1,000 too smart for themselves asses to negate any advantage.

Probably best to pick 3 numbers in excess of 36.  Off the top of my head I would say that this would push your expected pay-out ratio up to over 150% in current circumstances.

_* the aggregate pay-out ratio is unaffected but because of sharing the individual pay-out is diluted_


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## Sunny (23 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Further observation:
> On Saturday 20th Nov there were 40 winners of Match 5, each receiving just over €1,500.  The numbers drawn were 9,14,22,32,38,42
> On Saturday 6th Nov there were 120  winners of Match 5, each receiving just over €500. The numbers drawn were 5,6,9,15,19,25
> And the pattern is repeated for the lower prizes.
> ...



Thanks for this Duke. It's a good read. Just to summarise, you are suggesting cashing in all my investments, play the lotto while making sure that I pick 3 numbers over 36 and I am guaranteed to win €19m. That's my understanding anyway.....


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## Duke of Marmalade (23 Nov 2021)

Sunny said:


> Thanks for this Duke. It's a good read. Just to summarise, you are suggesting cashing in all my investments, play the lotto while making sure that I pick 3 numbers over 36 and I am guaranteed to win €19m. That's my understanding anyway.....


Not quite.  Say you now enter Wednesday's draw.  Your expected return is +50%  per 2 days or something astronomical p.a.  That surely beats what you expect on your investments.
BUT you run an enormous risk.  For say even  €100,000 worth of tickets my guess is that you are well odds on to lose over €30k  (that's finger in the air, I haven't run the numbers), but a slight chance of winning €19m.  Would you be happy with that risk/reward trade off?
Of course you could try covering the lot.  Four problems with that.  Firstly you will now have to cover the birthday numbers as well so your expected returns are down to +30% over 2 days.  Secondly, there is a chance that you might have to share the €19m jackpot.  Thirdly, do you have €21.5m to invest?  Finally, try buying 10.7 million tickets between now and tomorrow's draw.  And there is no point in starting now for Saturday as tomorrow could see the party over.


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## Sunny (23 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Not quite.  Say you now enter Wednesday's draw.  Your expected return is +50%  per 2 days or something astronomical p.a.  That surely beats what you expect on your investments.
> BUT you run an enormous risk.  For say even  €100,000 worth of tickets my guess is that you are well odds on to lose over €30k  (that's finger in the air, I haven't run the numbers), but a slight chance of winning €19m.  Would you be happy with that risk/reward trade off?
> Of course you could try covering the lot.  Four problems with that.  Firstly you will now have to cover the birthday numbers as well so your expected returns are down to +30% over 2 days.  Secondly, there is a chance that you might have to share the €19m jackpot.  Thirdly, do you have €21.5m to invest?  Finally, try buying 10.7 million tickets between now and tomorrow's draw.  And there is no point in starting now for Saturday as tomorrow could see the party over.



Well that puts a different slant on it. I will go back to my original plan and put everything on Bitcoin and Tesla!

I might just buy one ticket because it is nice going to bed thinking I could be back on AAM tomorrow asking for investment advice for my €19m......


----------



## Peanuts20 (23 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Not quite.  Say you now enter Wednesday's draw.  Your expected return is +50%  per 2 days or something astronomical p.a.  That surely beats what you expect on your investments.
> BUT you run an enormous risk.  For say even  €100,000 worth of tickets my guess is that you are well odds on to lose over €30k  (that's finger in the air, I haven't run the numbers), but a slight chance of winning €19m.  Would you be happy with that risk/reward trade off?
> Of course you could try covering the lot.  Four problems with that.  Firstly you will now have to cover the birthday numbers as well so your expected returns are down to +30% over 2 days.  Secondly, there is a chance that you might have to share the €19m jackpot.  Thirdly, do you have €21.5m to invest?  Finally, try buying 10.7 million tickets between now and tomorrow's draw.  And there is no point in starting now for Saturday as tomorrow could see the party over.



it has been tried before








						How a secret syndicate managed to 'buy' the Lotto
					

It was a Whit bank holiday weekend - and while most ordinary folk were heading off to enjoy the holiday, a small but dedicated band of gamblers spent the days leading up to that Saturday night in smoke-filled backrooms, plotting a coup that would make headlines around the world.




					www.independent.ie


----------



## RedOnion (23 Nov 2021)

@Duke of Marmalade 
You'll enjoy this. Back in 2014, the jackpot was shared by 6 winners. Image shows what their selection docket would have looked like.









						Six Lotto jackpot winners means getting ‘just’ €588,000 each
					

Winners all choose bizarrely similar pattern on playslip to split more than €3.5m




					www.irishtimes.com


----------



## cremeegg (23 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Not quite.  Say you now enter Wednesday's draw.  Your expected return is +50%  per 2 days or something astronomical p.a.  That surely beats what you expect on your investments.
> BUT you run an enormous risk.


While the discussion on the expected return is amusing I think there is a potentially very useful point on the relationship between risk and return.

The expected return on a lotto ticket for the current draw is €2 on a €1 investment. That is you have a 1 in 10 million chance of winning €20 million for a cost of €1, between now and draw time a €1 line is worth €2

There is a very large risk that the return will be zero with a small chance the return will be enormous. This is risk as understood by the average person. How does this relate to investment risk?


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (23 Nov 2021)

RedOnion said:


> @Duke of Marmalade
> You'll enjoy this. Back in 2014, the jackpot was shared by 6 winners. Image shows what their selection docket would have looked like.
> 
> 
> ...


Incredibly 531 chose 1,2,3,4,5,6 .  I guessed that there would be people who realising that this combination had the same chance as any other but would be the unlikely choice of a typical player and would therefore think they were unlikely to be duplicated.  What they didn't realise is that there were 531 duplicates of similar thinking people


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (23 Nov 2021)

cremeegg said:


> The expected return on a lotto ticket for the current draw is €2 on a €1 investment. That is you have a 1 in 10 million chance of winning €20 million for a cost of €1, between now and draw time a €1 line is worth €2


A line cost €2.  But you can expect a €1 payout in non jackpot prizes.  So the overall worth of a line is €1 in non jackpot prizes + €2 in jackpot prizes equals €3 in total, a mark up of 50%.  (This ignores a reduction for leakage due to sharing of the jackpot).

On your point abut the price of investment risk. This is called the equity risk premium and is estimated to be in a range of 3% p.a. to 8% p.a., say.  But Lotto risk is a completely different animal and if one imagined a free market with the risk profile of the Lotto one might expect very high risk premiums indeed.

Of course the paradox is that in the constrained market of the Lotto the normal situation is that the risk premium is negative.  In fact it is well known that the average "value" of a lotto ticket is 52% of its cost but people are prepared to give up the 48% for the risk profile.


----------



## Baby boomer (23 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Incredibly 531 chose 1,2,3,4,5,6 .  I guessed that there would be people who realising that this combination had the same chance as any other but would be the unlikely choice of a typical player and would therefore think they were unlikely to be duplicated.  What they didn't realise is that there were 531 duplicates of similar thinking people


I don't think that was what they were thinking.  More likely they just didn't understand what they were doing at all.  

On a related note, it's a well know feature of our PR voting system that a good chunk of people vote 1, 2, 3, 4, etc, in alphabetical order, right down the ballot paper.  Approximately 1% of the electorate does this.  One of the reasons candidates tend to "manipulate" their surnames to get higher up the ballot paper.  (Eg, dropping an O' so that O'Carroll becomes Carroll, inventing a creative new surname as Gaeilge, adding a suitable double-barrel etc etc.)


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (24 Nov 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> I don't think that was what they were thinking.  More likely they just didn't understand what they were doing at all.


Yes, that must be the main reason, but I guess there would be a minor element of smart-ass-ery at play.


----------



## RetirementPlan (24 Nov 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> I don't think that was what they were thinking.  More likely they just didn't understand what they were doing at all.
> 
> On a related note, it's a well know feature of our PR voting system that a good chunk of people vote 1, 2, 3, 4, etc, in alphabetical order, right down the ballot paper.  Approximately 1% of the electorate does this.  One of the reasons candidates tend to "manipulate" their surnames to get higher up the ballot paper.  (Eg, dropping an O' so that O'Carroll becomes Carroll, inventing a creative new surname as Gaeilge, adding a suitable double-barrel etc etc.)


I don't think many people fill in the boxes in sequence, but it is true that being higher up on the ballot does make it easier to get higher vote preferences. If I recall, Beverly Cooper Flynn kept the double-barrel name after separating from Mr Cooper!


----------



## NoRegretsCoyote (24 Nov 2021)

RetirementPlan said:


> it is true that being higher up on the ballot does make it easier to get higher vote preferences


The effect is small but material. 

Order of candidates should be randomised. Either identically for each ballot paper, or something like ten types of ballot paper with different randomisations. The former just introduces non-alphabetical bias though but the latter would nearly eliminate it entirely.

This slows down the counting process a lot though.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (24 Nov 2021)

I have done 5 Quick Picks for tonight's draw.
One of the QPs was 3,7,11,13,16,31 which breaks my rule!
Nonetheless my €10 investment is worth about €14 at this moment. (very likely to be worth zero at 8.10 tonight)
I am accepting bids over €13.

_*Warning for novice investors: * If you ask in a shop for a lotto ticket they will ask you if you want Lotto Plus.  You don't.  Lotto Plus involves an additional €1 investment which buys you into 2 supplementary draws but these do not benefit from the €19m carried forward jackpot.

Further trivia.  Listening to Joe Duffy on Tuesday (my excuse, I was in the roller and the Duchess never misses him).  He is going on about the Lotto these days.  Some really ill informed commentary including from Joe himself.  One in particular had me screaming at the radio.  Some guy who works for Google claimed to have won €100,000 this year on the Lotto.  I do not doubt him, in fact I think he showed evidence to Joe. 
His formula?  He backs the various spin offs that are offered by Paddy Power which he claims are far better value (on average that is correct), but here's the killer, he follows the "form" of the numbers coming up and can predict the higher likelihood numbers in a future draw.  Joe seemed to believe him, after all the guy worked for Google.  I kid you not._


----------



## Purple (24 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Further trivia. Listening to Joe Duffy on Tuesday (my excuse, I was in the car and the Duchess never misses him). He is going on about the Lotto these days. Some really ill informed commentary including from Joe himself. One in particular had me screaming at the radio. Some guy who works for Google claimed to have won €100,000 this year on the Lotto. I do not doubt him, in fact I think he showed evidence to Joe.
> His formula? He backs the various spin offs that are offered by Paddy Power which he claims are far better value (on balance that is correct), but here's the killer, he follows the "form" of the numbers coming up and can predict the higher likelihood numbers in a future draw. Joe seemed to believe him. I kid you not


He probably doesn't understand probability.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (24 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> He probably doesn't understand probability.


Too much Carlsberg, probably.


----------



## Sunny (24 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I have done 5 Quick Picks for tonight's draw.
> One of the QPs was 3,7,11,13,16,31 which breaks my rule!
> Nonetheless my €10 investment is worth about €14 at this moment.
> I am accepting bids over €13.
> ...




I think we can safely assume the €100,000 didn't last long......


----------



## odyssey06 (24 Nov 2021)

An Taoiseach drops hint a winner is needed in the Lotto...

THE NATIONAL LOTTERY regulator could be asked to appear before the Dail’s Finance Committee, the Taoiseach has suggested, after concerns were raised that the jackpot has not been won for months.









						National Lottery regulator could be asked to appear before Oireachtas Committee
					

The lengthy wait for a winner has led to some calls for greater scrutiny of the lotto system.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Sunny (24 Nov 2021)

If they could drag my local bookie in over the coals as well, that would be great.......


----------



## Baby boomer (24 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> He probably doesn't understand probability.


As amply demonstrated in other threads, Joe doesn't do any kind of mathematical rigour.  On the other hand, if you feel like some uninformed, vapid, mindless and prejudiced emoting, Joe's yer man.
He won't disappoint.


----------



## Baby boomer (24 Nov 2021)

RetirementPlan said:


> I don't think many people fill in the boxes in sequence, but it is true that being higher up on the ballot does make it easier to get higher vote preferences. If I recall, Beverly Cooper Flynn kept the double-barrel name after separating from Mr Cooper!


As her Daddy said, she's a class act


----------



## Purple (24 Nov 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> As amply demonstrated in other threads, Joe doesn't do any kind of mathematical rigour.  On the other hand, if you feel like some uninformed, vapid, mindless and prejudiced emoting, Joe's yer man.
> He won't disappoint.


He's not on his own though. There's no shortage of ill informed journalism or worse, as in the case of Fintan O'Toole, journalists who choose to ignore some of the facts in order to further aa political or ideological agenda.
RTE frame their current affairs and news coverage in an emotional or 'human interest' context all the time. They pluck the emotional strings before presenting the story. That means the wrong questions get asked and things don't improve.
In the context of the Lotto all the extra numbers were added and hardly a word was said until some idiot politician called for an enquiry. The utterly moronic idea that there should be a Bank Holiday the day of the Late Late Toy Show is a new low though. I'm not sure what TD proposed it but she should lose her seat for suggesting something so stupid. 

Rant over, back to the Lottery...


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (24 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> I'm not sure what TD proposed it but she should lose her seat for suggesting something so stupid.


Boris Johnson's da got hauled over the coals for such a double entendre.


----------



## Purple (24 Nov 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> As her Daddy said, she's a class act


Here, you try running three households. That man had a lot on his plate.


----------



## odyssey06 (24 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> He's not on his own though. There's no shortage of ill informed journalism or worse, as in the case of Fintan O'Toole, journalists who choose to ignore some of the facts in order to further aa political or ideological agenda.
> RTE frame their current affairs and news coverage in an emotional or 'human interest' context all the time. They pluck the emotional strings before presenting the story. That means the wrong questions get asked and things don't improve.
> In the context of the Lotto all the extra numbers were added and hardly a word was said until some idiot politician called for an enquiry. The utterly moronic idea that there should be a Bank Holiday the day of the Late Late Toy Show is a new low though. I'm not sure what TD proposed it but she should lose her seat for suggesting something so stupid.
> 
> Rant over, back to the Lottery...


It's not just RTE. It seems to be part of media and political training these days, clickbait basically. There is no such thing as an individual person anymore, everything has to be 'framed', or presented from an emotional angle.
The headline will mention families or mothers or children or fathers even if it's something affecting more than just them.

Plus I think you do a disservice to that TD, a Friday bank holiday would be nice. Why do they have to be on Mondays?
I label you a Toy Show skeptic.
We should have gone with Thanksgiving, and then if you take the Friday off, you get a four day weekend...


----------



## joer (24 Nov 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> An Taoiseach drops hint a winner is needed in the Lotto...
> 
> THE NATIONAL LOTTERY regulator could be asked to appear before the Dail’s Finance Committee, the Taoiseach has suggested, after concerns were raised that the jackpot has not been won for months.
> 
> ...


If its not won  after An Taoiseach has called for a winner this weekend what is the betting that Sinn Fein will tell him that he got it wrong again and call for a General Election


----------



## odyssey06 (24 Nov 2021)

joer said:


> If its not won  after An Taoiseach has called for a winner this weekend what is the betting that Sinn Fein will tell him that he got it wrong again and call for a General Election


Yes, who governs Ireland, MM or somebody in Ot-ah-wah? It's our lottery and we can win it if we want to. We want our balls back.


----------



## Baby boomer (24 Nov 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> It's not just RTE.


No, but they're prime offenders.  Another thing RTE News does that I don't get the need for, is the totally useless voxpop where some randomer gives a reaction to some local tragedy/crime/whatever. Basically it amounts to a random talking head saying how awful it is, or unexpected (hint: that's why it's news) or how everyone is shocked or some other such banality.   It's pointless, adds zero information whatsoever, and just gets in the way of the story.




odyssey06 said:


> It seems to be part of media and political training these days, clickbait basically. There is no such thing as an individual person anymore, everything has to be 'framed', or presented from an emotional angle.


And the more emotion that can be wrung out of the story, the better.  Of course, it dovetails neatly with the classic leftist view that "it's awful" and "it's all society's fault" therefore "something must be done" and it's government's job to do it, and the taxpayer's role is simply to pay up meekly. 




odyssey06 said:


> The headline will mention families or mothers or children or fathers even if it's something affecting more than just them.


See above.  Will nobody think of the childer?



odyssey06 said:


> Plus I think you do a disservice to that TD, a Friday bank holiday would be nice. Why do they have to be on Mondays?
> I label you a Toy Show skeptic.
> We should have gone with Thanksgiving, and then if you take the Friday off, you get a four day weekend...


Or draw the dole and get a seven day weekend.  Every week.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (24 Nov 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> Another thing RTE News does that I don't get the need for, is the totally useless voxpop where some randomer gives a reaction to some local tragedy/crime/whatever. Basically it amounts to a random talking head saying how awful it is, or unexpected (hint: that's why it's news) or how everyone is shocked or some other such banality.   It's pointless, adds zero information whatsoever, and just gets in the way of the story.


That one really gets me.  Also when they highlight some fairly trivial revelation from their latest FOI or Prime Time investigation.


----------



## Conan (24 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> That one really gets me.  Also when they highlight some fairly trivial revelation from their latest FOI or Prime Time investigation.


And this week’s Prime Time Investigates was basically a call-out to anybody who had an operation in Naas General to make a claim for assault. The “claims culture” is being broadcast live.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (24 Nov 2021)

No winner again.  This is fun.  Imagine if a minister won.  That would be such a conspiracy theory scandal it would bury the NL.  It would even damage Ireland’s reputation.


----------



## RetirementPlan (25 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Boris Johnson's da got hauled over the coals for such a double entendre.


I thought he got hauled over the coals for feeling up women?


----------



## RetirementPlan (25 Nov 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> No, but they're prime offenders.  Another thing RTE News does that I don't get the need for, is the totally useless voxpop where some randomer gives a reaction to some local tragedy/crime/whatever. Basically it amounts to a random talking head saying how awful it is, or unexpected (hint: that's why it's news) or how everyone is shocked or some other such banality.   It's pointless, adds zero information whatsoever, and just gets in the way of the story.


I yearn for the day, where the interviewee in the voxpop after a murder, says something like "He was awful cranky and contrary, I never liked him, no-one liked him round here" instead of the usual stories.

It's not those voxpops that bother me. It is the voxpops on policy decisions that are based on expert medical advice. Asking Johnny and Mary if they think nightclubs should be open or buses should be running at half capacity is fairly meaningless. You might as well ask Johnny and Mary for their views on cardiac surgery techniques or timing chain change intervals.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (25 Nov 2021)

RetirementPlan said:


> I thought he got hauled over the coals for feeling up women?


He smacked the winning Tory candidate hard, joking that the Tories had a "safe seat" here.  I don't think he was doing any g******.  But let's not go down that rabbit hole.


----------



## Purple (25 Nov 2021)

RetirementPlan said:


> I yearn for the day, where the interviewee in the voxpop after a murder, says something like "He was awful cranky and contrary, I never liked him, no-one liked him round here" instead of the usual stories.


Or someone says, "She/he has always at him/her, I'm only surprised they didn't snap sooner".


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (28 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> He smacked the winning Tory candidate hard, joking that the Tories had a "safe seat" here.  I don't think he was doing any g******.  But let's not go down that rabbit hole.


What he actually said was "oh Romsey, you have a lovely seat here".  A conservative female minister has come out in support of Bojo's da.


----------



## RetirementPlan (29 Nov 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> What he actually said was "oh Romsey, you have a lovely seat here".  A conservative female minister has come out in support of Bojo's da.


It wasn't just one incident. He had a go at a young Irish lady too.


----------



## Purple (29 Nov 2021)

I forgot to do the Lotto again so it wasn't won.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (29 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> I forgot to do the Lotto again so it wasn't won.


I did have another go.  That is why it wasn't won.


----------



## joer (29 Nov 2021)

And I am going to do it for the first time for this draw of 19 million , so everyone else may hold off .


----------



## Purple (29 Nov 2021)

joer said:


> And I am going to do it for the first time for this draw of 19 million , so everyone else may hold off .


I was going to do it but since you asked I'll hold off. Best of luck.


----------



## joer (29 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> I was going to do it but since you asked I'll hold off. Best of luck.


Thanks for that ....I have a feeling that I will need it . Good luck to you also , you might need it too.


----------



## Purple (29 Nov 2021)

joer said:


> Thanks for that ....I have a feeling that I will need it . Good luck to you also , you might need it too.


If you don't win this week I'm bound to win next week.


----------



## joer (29 Nov 2021)

joer said:


> And I am going to do it for the first time for this draw of 19 million , so everyone else may hold off .


If, sorry, when I win the jackpot this week the drinks, sorry laughs will be on me ...


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (2 Dec 2021)

Not won again.  I reckon there were c.13m tickets bought last night.  That would mean an 11% chance of winning the jackpot.  This could go on for a while yet.
I think this is not good news for the National Lottery.  No question of conspiracy, though some will buy into that. 
When it gets won there will be a bit of a media boost with the high jackpot but it will dawn on people how difficult it now is to win the jackpot, and back to €2m there should be a big drop in participation.  On the other hand do people really distinguish between €2m and €19m? There will always be the birthday brigade who because of FOMO will have to keep playing just in case.


----------



## Purple (2 Dec 2021)

There should be a clamour to reduce the number of numbers.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (2 Dec 2021)

Purple said:


> There should be a clamour to reduce the number of numbers.


I think so.  Though they are worried about being ganged up upon by syndicates when there is value because of carry forward jackpots.


----------



## Leper (2 Dec 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Not won again.  I reckon there were c.13m tickets bought last night.  That would mean an 11% chance of winning the jackpot.  This could go on for a while yet.
> I think this is not good news for the National Lottery.  No question of conspiracy, though some will buy into that.
> When it gets won there will be a bit of a media boost with the high jackpot but it will dawn on people how difficult it now is to win the jackpot, and back to €2m there should be a big drop in participation.  On the other hand do people really distinguish between €2m and €19m.  There will always be the birthday brigade who because of FOMO will have to keep playing just in case.


The Duke is correct. The last thing most bookmakers want is to be winning everything. They know the percentages and likliehood of wins and they are prime people who know when their clients will cop on bigtime and consequently lose business as a result. I bet the Lottery people are copping onto this too and shortly there will be an array of prizes when jackpots keep rolling over. 

Purples idea is good i.e. reduce the numbers, but the Scruffy Murphy gang  sorry I mean syndicate put paid to that a few years ago.


----------



## odyssey06 (2 Dec 2021)

Purple said:


> There should be a clamour to reduce the number of numbers.


They should get rid of number 13 for starters. And 33 and avoid the dreaded thurtee-tree.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (2 Dec 2021)

Another wrinkle is that Match 5 + Bonus did not win last night (unusual) and that part of the prize fund is carried forward to Saturday so Saturday's draw will be even "better value".


----------



## joer (2 Dec 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> They should get rid of number 13 for starters. And 33 and avoid the dreaded thurtee-tree.


And perhaps 3 and 23 and 43. 
Better still I will try and remember to play on Saturday


----------



## Purple (3 Dec 2021)

joer said:


> And perhaps 3 and 23 and 43.
> Better still I will try and remember to play on Saturday


Tree, tur-tee-tree and four-tee-tree?


----------



## joer (3 Dec 2021)

Purple said:


> Tree, tur-tee-tree and four-tee-tree?


It must have slipped your mind to play on Wednesday too .


----------



## Purple (3 Dec 2021)

joer said:


> It must have slipped your mind to play on Wednesday too .


Yes, sorry about that. I hope to put an end to this whole sorry jamboree this Saturday. I had to look up which night the draw took place which shows how often I play (or that I'm thick, it could just be that).


----------



## RetirementPlan (7 Dec 2021)

Given that it is definitely my turn to win this week, is there an AAM guide for the new lottery winner who has coming into millions? I'm guessing the investment advice side is well covered elsewhere, but in the plan  I regularly work out, there is a lot more to it, including;

- Legal / tax advice
- Money management / treasury service 
- personal security 
- tax efficient sharing of money with family and others (I know which family mortgages I'd like to clear with my €19m)
- confidentiality


----------



## joer (7 Dec 2021)

RetirementPlan said:


> Given that it is definitely my turn to win this week, is there an AAM guide for the new lottery winner who has coming into millions? I'm guessing the investment advice side is well covered elsewhere, but in the plan  I regularly work out, there is a lot more to it, including;
> 
> - Legal / tax advice
> - Money management / treasury service
> ...


Don't worry about all of that because I'm going to win this week .....if I do it ...


----------



## Firefly (7 Dec 2021)

RetirementPlan said:


> Given that it is definitely my turn to win this week, is there an AAM guide for the new lottery winner who has coming into millions? I'm guessing the investment advice side is well covered elsewhere, but in the plan  I regularly work out, there is a lot more to it, including;
> 
> - Legal / tax advice
> - Money management / treasury service
> ...


Surprised you don't have "buying Bitcoin" on the list


----------



## Purple (8 Dec 2021)

I was sick over the weekend and didn’t get to the shop to do it so…


----------



## odyssey06 (9 Dec 2021)

TD links Lotto funds with wider global conspiracy.

_Last night’s Lotto was the 53rd consecutive draw where no one claimed the jackpot.. .Fine Gael TD Bernard Durkan, who is on the finance committee, said he has a series of questions to ask those who will appear at Leinster House next week.
“The time has come for some pertinent questions. *A lot can happen in six months. *Dublin footballers’ unbeaten run came to an end, a summer heatwave came and went, Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, Omicron replaced Delta, Barbados became a Republic and Wally the Walrus visited our shores and left – without winning the Lotto jackpot like the rest of us,” the Kildare North TD said._









						Lotto reps to appear before Oireachtas committee as jackpot goes unclaimed again
					

There have been 53 Lotto draws since the jackpot prize was last won.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Baby boomer (12 Dec 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> TD links Lotto funds with wider global conspiracy.
> 
> _Last night’s Lotto was the 53rd consecutive draw where no one claimed the jackpot.. .Fine Gael TD Bernard Durkan, who is on the finance committee, said he has a series of questions to ask those who will appear at Leinster House next week.
> “The time has come for some pertinent questions. *A lot can happen in six months. *Dublin footballers’ unbeaten run came to an end, a summer heatwave came and went, Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, Omicron replaced Delta, Barbados became a Republic and Wally the Walrus visited our shores and left – without winning the Lotto jackpot like the rest of us,” the Kildare North TD said._
> ...


Did Wally the Walrus buy a ticket?


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (12 Dec 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> Did Wally the Walrus buy a ticket?


Is WtW over 18?


----------



## Baby boomer (12 Dec 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Is WtW over 18?


In walrus years or human years?


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (15 Dec 2021)

“RTÉ” said:
			
		

> Given that tickets have been bought since early June, this highly unusual situation is akin to chances of rolling a die 37 times with the number six arising, TDs and Senators will hear.


I think they mean *without*  a six arising.

_Update:  this is a misquote by RTÉ.  The Irish Times report the lottery people as saying it is like *not* throwing a six 37 times._


----------



## odyssey06 (15 Dec 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I think they mean *without*  a six arising.


The Canadians stole our number 6 and won't give it back, without that we can't win?


----------



## Purple (15 Dec 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I think they mean *without*  a six arising.


Is that correct though? 
Are the odds the same?


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (15 Dec 2021)

Purple said:


> Is that correct though?
> Are the odds the same?


The chances of a 6 on one throw is 1 in 6 or say c.17%;  the chances of not a 6 are then 83%. 
Chances of two 6's on 2 throws of dice 17% x 17% = 3%;  Chances of no 6 on 2 throws = 83% x 83% = 70%, still quite high
The chances of a 6 every time for 37 throws is like odds of number of atoms in the universe but chances of no 6 37 times is about 1 per 1,000; very low but not outlandishly so.


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Dec 2021)

I see National Lottery will propose to Finance Committee that they are looking for permission for a "must win" draw.  That would be interesting.  By my reckoning that would make a €2 entry worth more than €10.


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## Purple (15 Dec 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> The chances of a 6 on one throw is 1 in 6 or say c.17%;  the chances of not a 6 are then 83%.
> Chances of two 6's on 2 throws of dice 17% x 17% = 3%;  Chances of no 6 on 2 throws = 83% x 83% = 70%, still quite high
> The chances of a 6 every time for 37 throws is like odds of number of atoms in the universe but chances of no 6 37 times is about 1 per 1,000; very low but not outlandishly so.


What's the chance of the Lottery not being won over this period?


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Dec 2021)

Purple said:


> What's the chance of the Lottery not being won over this period?


About 1 in a 1,000 which is the chances of no 6 in 37 throws of the die or indeed throwing a 6 in 4 throws at once, which doesn't sound quite so impossible.  Have you ever thrown a double 6 twice in a row in Monopoly?  It happens.


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## RetirementPlan (15 Dec 2021)

Reporter on Claire Byrne noted that Premier Lotteries are currently still in considerable debt from their original purchase (€400m in 2014).


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## Purple (15 Dec 2021)

It would be nice to know how their ticket sales have been going. A 'must win' draw would get a massive interest.


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Dec 2021)

Watched the whole Finance Committee session.  Durkan is such an idiot.  He asked how was it possible to make sure of a win, were they going to fiddle the game (more or less).  He didn't understand the explanation i.e. that the prize would be pushed down to Match 5 + Bonus and if that didn't have any winners to Match 5 etc. etc.
There was one TD who really knew her onions.  Questioned the 37 throws of the dice and that her calculations based on 1.4m sales per draw were 1 in 2,000 chance which differed somewhat from that.  It was explained that the 1.4m sales included duplicates and that the lottery calculation was based on the number of *different *entries, which of course only they are privy to.    She admitted that that explained it and meant there were on average only 850k different entries - I kid you not, she knew her stuff!
Later she queried why the Lottery company was paying 9% p.a. on a €200M loan from its Canadian parent and strongly suggested that this was a tax avoidance arrangement.

Such talent is wasted in Dail Eireann - I mean that.
Her name?  Mairead Farrell, SF TD for Galway West, with a degree from my alma mater Queens University Belfast.  Be Afraid


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Dec 2021)

A really weird revelation was that c.€20m p.a. of unclaimed prizes is ploughed back into promoting the NL unlike in the UK where it goes to good causes.


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## odyssey06 (15 Dec 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> A really weird revelation was that c.€20m p.a. of unclaimed prizes is ploughed back into promoting the NL unlike in the UK where it goes to good causes.


That seems an astonishing marketing budget / slush fund.


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Dec 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> That seems an astonishing marketing budget / slush fund.


Certainly does.  The  chairman really queried it and didn't really get a very satisfactory answer from the NL guy as to under what heads this promotion came.  In fact the NL guy was his own worst enemy; kept ducking questions citing confidentiality.  You would swear he had something to hide which I am sure he has not.
Toibin was good as well.  When the NL guy yet again cited commercial sensitivity not allowing him to answer a question,  Toibin asked him who his competitors were.  He said they are in general competition for discretionary spend.  Toibin rightly dismissed that kop out.


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## Purple (15 Dec 2021)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Such talent is wasted in Dail Eireann - I mean that.
> Her name?  Mairead Farrell, SF TD for Galway West, with a degree from my alma mater Queens University Belfast.  Be Afraid


I'd say she was great at those maths problems from school that started with "If Gerry has a 1.5 ton van and has to blow up a 6 story building, how much fertiliser will he need to pack into the back of it..."


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## Baby boomer (15 Dec 2021)

Purple said:


> I'd say she was great at those maths problems from school that started with "If Gerry has a 1.5 ton van and has to blow up a 6 story building, how much fertiliser will he need to pack into the back of it..."


If two volunteers can dig a grave for one informer in two days, how long will it take three volunteers to dig graves for six informers? 

Answers on the back of a Northern Bank £50 note to the SF Christmas Carol-singing fund.  

Winner gets a CD of duets by Gerry Adams and David Cullinane.  They haven't gone away you know.


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## Peanuts20 (16 Dec 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> That seems an astonishing marketing budget / slush fund.


look at the amount of ads on the telly that they have, RTE must be making a fortune from it


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## joer (16 Dec 2021)

Peanuts20 said:


> look at the amount of ads on the telly that they have, RTE must be making a fortune from it


And not one decent one ...


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## Duke of Marmalade (16 Dec 2021)

It could be you.  Tell that to Wally the Walrus.


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## Duke of Marmalade (17 Dec 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> That seems an astonishing marketing budget / slush fund.





			
				letter in Irish Times said:
			
		

> Sir, – I served as chairman of An Post National Lottery Company for 13 years. The current odds for winning the jackpot are wrong in principle and in practice. The appropriation of unclaimed prizes into marketing expenses is a raid on the prize fund which would not have happened in An Post’s time. Unclaimed prizes belong to lottery players not the executive. It is time to turn back the clock. – Yours, etc,
> 
> JOHN HYNES


He has a point.  I think we are on our own in allowing the executives to use the unclaimed prizes to promote their business.


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## odyssey06 (12 Jan 2022)

The winner will probably turn out to be Canadian...








						National Lottery clears way for must win €19m draw this Saturday to end seven month run
					

The Irish National lottery draw has rolled over since 9 June, 2021.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## Cervelo (23 Jan 2022)

skrooge said:


> Purple you machine! With your heart of stone... I'm fractionally numerate and on occasion do the lotto.
> 
> While I agree with your appreciation of the odds you can't put a value on the that feeling of hope that a BIG payout brings to some.
> 
> I was going to say it's not all about the numbers but we all know it is.....


Back in October 2018 we were on a road trip in the USA and there were bill board signs everywhere for the Mega Millions Draw
So naturally we both bought a few tickets and started to talk and imagine about what we'd do if we won
We actually made the conscious decision to stop talking about what we'd do because it was becoming unfathomable to think straight

The 1.5 Billion dollar jackpot was won a few days later by one ticket!!


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