# Planning ahead of next Government (what if Socialist in power)



## Codogly (29 Jul 2015)

Hi All,

I thought it might be interesting to consider what the implications for the middle income section of Irish Society might be in the event that our next government is more socialist than capitalist.
What if any tax planning can be done ... pre-emptive measures etc.

Any thoughts...

Codogly


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## Jon Snow (29 Jul 2015)

Codogly said:


> Hi All,
> 
> I thought it might be interesting to consider what the implications for the middle income section of Irish Society might be in the event that our next government is more socialist than capitalist.
> What if any tax planning can be done ... pre-emptive measures etc.
> ...



That's very much an academic exercise at this point, as there's very little likelihood of a predominantly socialist Govt.


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## Codogly (29 Jul 2015)

Well i hope your right ...however given the fiasco with Irish Water we cant be sure what the impact on the voter will be.

What if Sein Fein are sharing power ... what will that mean for income tax , property tax ...etc


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## elcato (29 Jul 2015)

Codogly said:


> What if Sein Fein are sharing power ... what will that mean for income tax , property tax ...etc


Ask any Labour TD in the present government.


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## Codogly (29 Jul 2015)

Hi elcato ... do you mean that Sein Fein would be the same in government as Labour are in the current administration...?


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## Deiseblue (29 Jul 2015)

I would have thought recent Governments were more socialist than capitalist !


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## Codogly (29 Jul 2015)

Hi Deiseblue ... the might claim to be socialist in this current austerity environment but FG / FF are capitalist in their core beliefs IMO.
Personally i would be very concerned if Sein Fein were in Government in any shape whatsoever.
FG / FF might well be clicky and an old boys club but they would be stable... not perfect by anymeans but they wont rock the boat on these high risk seas we are on at present.


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## elcato (29 Jul 2015)

I doubt Sinn Fein will go into power as a coalition as they have seen what happens to junior partners. However if they did (get greedy) then they would suffer the same fate imo.


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## Codogly (29 Jul 2015)

Is it just me or is it hard to imagine Sein Fein being able to work with anybody in governemnt ... i mean when you look at some of their "stable" TD's would they be able to agree with anybody ? on anything ?


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## Guns N Roses (29 Jul 2015)

Even in the very unlikely event that the next Government is a socialist one, they will be required to uphold the agreements that have already been put into place by the previous FG/Labour and FF/PD/Greens governments. Our bailout program was agreed on the basis that we bring in property taxes and water charges. Greece is a good example. Socialist party elected to renegotiate the bailout program agreed by the previous capitalist government. After lots of huffing and puffing, they end up agreeing to continue with basically the same deal because they had no choice.

Don't worry. There will be no major policy shifts with the next Government regardless who they may be. Water charges and property taxes are here to stay and rightly so.


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## Codogly (29 Jul 2015)

Hope your right GNR ...what we need now is a governemnt that is smart enought to allow our economy slowly and steadly recover as it has already started to ... no perfect but ok ish.


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## 44brendan (29 Jul 2015)

All current indications are the Sinn Fein have no intention of being a Junior partner in Government for obvious reasons. Our main difficulties next term will most likely be a result of a FG/FF main party being propped up by a mix of say Labour and independents. I heard Shane Ross on radio this week stating that he would be interested in involving his group of independents in supporting a "like minded" government. The benefit being that absence of a whip system would allow some level of autonomy to the independents.
Given that there will be many hard decisions still to be made by the next administration I cannot see independents voting for something that is likely to mean a loss of seat without a whip system.
In my opinion you are right to be nervous as a weak Government could undermine many of the benefits we have seen in the Economy over the past 4 years. Sinn Fein are more centre left than extreme left and are by no means the worst option as a junior partner!


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## Gerry Canning (29 Jul 2015)

Socialist Sinn Fein ?.
Nominally they are , but a simple perusal of their antics in N Ire assembly would strongly indicate they are Socialists with a small (s).They will soon morph into a leftish ,but capitalistic friendly type of socialist. 

Present government {more socialist than capitalist} I can,t see that, unless all commentators are wrong when they state its the poorer who have been hit hardest.

{water taxes are here to stay and rightly so}, that is  fair enough but to start with meters and when you see storm clouds gathering you panic ,then you  pull out a conservation e100 rabbit, ! that is a gross insult to anyones intelligence. 

People seem to be a bit phobic on the word Socialist , I don,t think it was Socialism that got us into this mess but what did was a poor type of Capitalism.
It would take some Socialist to do that much harm !


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## so-crates (29 Jul 2015)

If we elect a Dáil of those opposed to the current measures, we could well see (as occurred in Greece) a temporary cessation of some or all of the sensible measures now in place. Again, like Greece, there may need to be a reversion of any policy shifts once realism hits home. Unfortunately, blue sky thinking when the dark clouds are gathering will find you out in the rain. You eventually either give in and take shelter or put on the sensible but unfashionable raincoat you had foisted on you. However you will have already got wet. Greece may not have been in the most wonderful of positions last November but they have definitely not found themselves in a better position for their flight of fancy ... short, medium or long-term, individual or national. 

I am rather cynical about any of the self-styled anti-austerity crowd. Some are no more than band-wagon jumpers looking to get votes, some seem to genuinely believe their own position has validity. The first deserve contempt for their craven behaviour, the latter for their foolishness. Unfortunately not everyone sees it this way so I am resigned to the probability that they have gained the confidence of some people and will manage to leverage a greater share of the vote as a result. One thing I would love to see from that motley crew is what their suggestion re replacing Irish Water is. One annoying thing about the anti-water charges protesters is that there hasn't been a single sensible alternative proposal. It has just been a collection of postures and rabble-rousing statements designed more to rile up the converted than to actually address the issues. But there are no easy votes in being sensible.


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## 44brendan (29 Jul 2015)

As I'm drawing nearer to pension age my Socialist tendencies are getting stronger. We would all tend to vote "Me Fein" should some bright spark set up that party! The main danger for the next election is the vast number of people who will vote to punish existing parties rather than for the Government system they want and need. That's the difficulty of a democratic system. You don't necessarily get the Government that you need. You support the party that will promise to give you what you want! I.e. the extreme Socialist parties all have policies that involve vast amounts of increased social spending. This will be financed by taxing big corporations and the "rich". They have no position on the unintended consequences of such action and genuinely believe that these people will cough up all their mullah when asked to do so Wouldn't we all vote for them if this was the case (provided that we didn't fit into the "Rich" category)??


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## so-crates (29 Jul 2015)

SF are fundamentally schizophrenic at their core. You cannot be socialist and nationalist. Nationalism is antipathetic to socialism and any true socialist should break out in a rash at the thought of engaging in nationalism. Looking at their actual history (instead of their own mythical folklore) the party as it stands today is a remnant of a remnant of a right-leaning nationalist party, abandoned by their majority when FF decided to cut away from the SF historic baggage. Their lifeline over the last century has been Northern Ireland and the continuation of conflict there over many years. Without that, they would have had little or no platform. When FF was formed and they found themselves a rag-tag of unelectables in danger of extinction they decided to adopt "socialist" positions since they saw little future in continuing down their previous path. Anyone that chooses to vote for them will soon find out that their promises hold no water and their "policies" have about as much functional content as a chocolate fire-guard. I'd much rather not see them in the Dáil or in government at all, their association with violence, intimidation and criminality are enough to disgust me but their lies to their loyal followers are equally revolting.


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## so-crates (29 Jul 2015)

Unfortunately it doesn't take much to find yourself in the "rich" category. A lot less than some of those voting to punish sensible but unpalatable policy think. [broken link removed]


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## Andy836 (29 Jul 2015)

so-crates said:


> Unfortunately it doesn't take much to find yourself in the "rich" category. A lot less than some of those voting to punish sensible but unpalatable policy think. [broken link removed]



Good god that's depressing. Top 2% here


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## Andy836 (29 Jul 2015)

44brendan said:


> *As I'm drawing nearer to pension age my Socialist tendencies are getting stronger*. We would all tend to vote "Me Fein" should some bright spark set up that party! The main danger for the next election is the vast number of people who will vote to punish existing parties rather than for the Government system they want and need. That's the difficulty of a democratic system. You don't necessarily get the Government that you need. You support the party that will promise to give you what you want! I.e. the extreme Socialist parties all have policies that involve vast amounts of increased social spending. This will be financed by taxing big corporations and the "rich". They have no position on the unintended consequences of such action and genuinely believe that these people will cough up all their mullah when asked to do so Wouldn't we all vote for them if this was the case (provided that we didn't fit into the "Rich" category)??



That's a fairly common trait.

Often you'll hear senior media commentators (in age terms now not in quality) talking about means testing 3rd level fees & children's allowance and commenting on mortgage & property rates & pay rates, or lambasting politicians for the poor state of the health system. 
That is all effectively "Me Fein" politics, as (i) their kids are grown up (not eligible for child allowance nor liable for 3rd level fees) (ii) they have their mortgages paid off so house prices don't affect them (other than increase their unearned wealth), (iii) their state pensions are being funded by the youth of today, and (iv) they're more likely to need to avail of medical services because of their age than those who actually pay for them (those younger earners in society).


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## thedaddyman (30 Jul 2015)

I do wonder if we have a hung Dail and some sort of Coalition (socialist or otherwise) cobbled together, how long will it last for? I would not be surprised to see another election 12 months after the next one


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## T McGibney (30 Jul 2015)

Gerry Canning said:


> Socialist Sinn Fein ?.
> People seem to be a bit phobic on the word Socialist , I don,t think it was Socialism that got us into this mess but what did was a poor type of Capitalism.



Our 2008/9 collapse is directly traceable to Bertie Ahern's espousal of socialism (meaning high public spending) in 2004. 

After 7 years of pain, our current budget deficit is still €6bn p.a.


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## Firefly (30 Jul 2015)

Deiseblue said:


> I would have thought recent Governments were more socialist than capitalist !



Hi Deise, I admire your honesty and I agree!!

To the OP - I'm actually, secretly hoping for a _dramatic _swing to the Left.  You see I feel like it's time to hang up my boots. Even though I'm self-employed I think I'll go with that earlier retirement lark and settle for half my final salary too while I'm at it. Sure, the free health care will be great too like and sure won't they get rid of water charges and property taxes too? As I'll be a pensioner they won't come after me, but instead tax the rich, so we all win! We might have a new, ahem, "army" but sure how bad, like, cheap smokes for all and sure green diesel too, like! Sure, what's not to like, like?


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## Conan (30 Jul 2015)

The problem is that parties "campaign in poetry" but "govern in prose".
So as Mr Tprisas found out, you can promise anything in opposition but when you expect someone else to pay for it, that's when reality bites.
Listening to the odds and sods of the looney left, all our financial problems would be solved by taxing the "rich". In their case, the "rich" is anyone earning (and I stress earning) more than they are. Whilst I might have some sympathy for taxing the so called tax exiles (Denis O'Brien etc), even that is a bit clichéd , since in many cases their assets (and incomes) are located overseas (so easy to say but very hard to do).
There is a political risk that the next Govt may have to rely on a "collective" of independents (most of whom seemingly cannot agree what day of the week it is).


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## Firefly (30 Jul 2015)

Conan said:


> So as Mr Tprisas found out, you can promise anything in opposition but when you expect someone else to pay for it, that's when reality bites.



You know, I think the absolute _shambles _that is Syriza, is possibly the best thing that could have happened to us in safe-guarding us from SF and the loonies.


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## sunnydonkey (30 Jul 2015)

Guns N Roses said:


> Greece is a good example. Socialist party elected to renegotiate the bailout program agreed by the previous capitalist government. After lots of huffing and puffing, they end up agreeing to continue with basically the same deal because they had no choice.



Yes, but country destroyed in the process.....


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## 44brendan (30 Jul 2015)

Despite the complete and utter mess caused by Syrzia in Greece you will find not 1 Socialist in Ireland is prepared to admit that these type of policies are at best theoretical fantasies. the concept of true socialism is not achievable without a despotic Government such as North Korea who will enforce their policies on the populace. Even in "Socialist" countries like Russia/China they have moved significantly towards capitalism in order to achieve economic growth.
The vast majority of us are sympathetic towards those who are unable to earn a sustainable level of income. However, we need to have an incentive to work hard and to improve ourselves. Penal levels of taxation kicking in at a certain level are a disincentive to all and promote either tax evasion or exit from the State. The Democratic system is by no means perfect, but generally speaking it is both open and fair to all. I would welcome any debate from a Socialist who could point to a successful Socialist Economist System currently operating and point out how that system could operate in this country.


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## Gerry Canning (31 Jul 2015)

Re T Mc Gibneys comment.

Your comment socialism (meaning high public spending) ,is a bit glib , though I do have sympathy and somewhat agree with it.
On the other foot
 Capitalism surely should have followed through when things blew up and hammered the Banks/bond-holders etc.
Instead did we not Socialize the debt?
So did Socialism save the day ?

Long live the brothers!  Hmn !


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