# Why are our new case numbers of Covid so high....every day.



## Kimmagegirl

Why are our case numbers so high?  We have been in level 5 lockdown for months. Most people I know are observing all the rules and staying at home. Yet the new cases are over 500 every day. Where are they coming from? How are they spreading?

I saw a doctor say that when they go to input the reason for new cases they are being forced to write "community transmission" because the recording system does not have enough choices or selection of reasons for them to input the reason.

I mean if the cases are a result of inward travel but passed on to third parties, then it should be recorded as travel and not as community transmission.

I am beginning to think that we are not being told the real reason for these high cases.


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## odyssey06

Or maybe the people themselves aren't telling the docs the real reason they were exposed, if it was because they were breaking restrictions?

What reason did the doctor want to record?


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## Ceist Beag

Kimmagegirl said:


> Most people I know are observing all the rules and staying at home. Yet the new cases are over 500 every day. Where are they coming from? How are they spreading?


Agreed it is frustrating but the latest from NPHET suggests that people are not observing all the rules and staying at home. Mobility is increasing, as are the number of contacts. That suggests that the real reason is simply peoples behaviour.


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## joe sod

Ceist Beag said:


> Agreed it is frustrating but the latest from NPHET suggests that people are not observing all the rules and staying at home. Mobility is increasing, as are the number of contacts. That suggests that the real reason is simply peoples behaviour.


Which proves that lockdowns one year later are no longer effective. 

When the only tool you have in your toolbox is a hammer 
everything looks like a nail.

They need to get that new tool, more vaccines


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## Firefly

Kimmagegirl said:


> Why are our case numbers so high?  We have been in level 5 lockdown for months. Most people I know are observing all the rules and staying at home. Yet the new cases are over 500 every day. Where are they coming from? How are they spreading?


Well this certainly doesn't help 














						Pavee Point says it is not acceptable for hundreds to attend funeral
					

Nearly 300 mourners gather in Co Leitrim for burial of man (22) who died in Britain




					www.irishtimes.com


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## Purple

Kimmagegirl said:


> Where are they coming from? How are they spreading?


The B117 (UK) strain is more contagious. That's why.


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## EasilyAmused

All the new strains are more transmissible. . 
The strain doing the rounds during Lockdown 1 had a lower Rnumber than the current strains. 
Lockdown 1 was far more restrictive than Lockdowns 2 and 3.
During Lockdown 1 75% of commuters were WFH. Now that figure is 50%. 

To name but a few...


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## joe sod

With Ireland being so exposed to the UK and UK strain for the recent upsurge,  how forcefully did Michael martin make this point if at all with boris Johnson. He said boris told him that he could not spare any extra vaccines until UK was vaccinated,  haven't heard anything about this conversation from boris Johnson though. Methinks Michael was happy with this reply as it gave him a good excuse and prevented him having to embarrass the Eu. I think the UK are more willing to give than the irish government to receive.. I think Michael did not labour the point too much and the brits knew they were giving him the answer he really wanted anyway.


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## time to plan

joe sod said:


> Which proves that lockdowns one year later are no longer effective.
> 
> When the only tool you have in your toolbox is a hammer
> everything looks like a nail.
> 
> They need to get that new tool, more vaccines


It proves nothing until you can prove the counterfactual of what would happen without a lockdown. Which is of course impossible. Unfortunately, proof is hard to come by in these unusual circumstances.


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## EasilyAmused

joe sod said:


> Which proves that lockdowns one year later are no longer effective.



When following a “living with the virus” approach, lockdowns work when they are in place and stop working soon after they’re lifted.

They’re exceptionally effective with following a “Zero Covid” strategy.


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## EasilyAmused

One thing that is very concerning is that we entered Lockdown 2 when the daily cases rose to about 500 per day. 

Now we’re in Lockdown 3 and the daily cases have plateaued at about 500.


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## joe sod

EasilyAmused said:


> When following a “living with the virus” approach, lockdowns work when they are in place and stop working soon after they’re lifted.
> They’re exceptionally effective with following a “Zero Covid” strategy.


Zero covid is last year's news, and we did not achieve it, it requires a totality of response down to minutae which our state has no history of, sure quarantine even with the meagre number of travellers entering is still not in place now and that's after months of talking about it. The only realistic target is to keep new cases under a thousand a day, speed up vaccinations as much as possible and open.up what we can under those limits. The problem with nphet is that they were always trying to get to unrealistic targets and then blaming people in general when they were not achieved. A climate of extreme negativity built up which meant that people lost hope and the good intentions on.the first lockdown were impossible to replicate again


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## Wahaay

joe sod said:


> With Ireland being so exposed to the UK and UK strain for the recent upsurge,  how forcefully did Michael martin make this point if at all with boris Johnson.


Virus reparations.Haven't heard that one before ...


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## odyssey06

And then we have... Gardaí shut down shebeen operating in Cavan









						Gardaí shut down shebeen operating in Cavan
					

It was raided last Friday.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## EasilyAmused

Case numbers have increased here for three days on the trot. 

My neighbour is running a mini-marathon on St Patrick's Day with a number of other people. There are probably other “non-public” St Patrick’s Day events nationwide. 

I have two house extradition sites within a five minute walk of my house. 

Gerry Killeen has predicted a fourth wave by the end of the month.


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## john luc

One more thing that has bother me is the lazy way RTE interview the politicians. Last January a nice asking of Leo about the issue of travel as a source was put down with a tut tut and a don't be blaming those that travel as its really US that are just not behaving. December there was no UK Variant but by end of February 90% of all cases are now reported as UK Variant. So Leo, how about some math, 1+1 is 2, 2+2 is 4, and so on so the 91 year old who gets it and transfers it is number 10,000. But serious travel control means 0+0 is 0, and 0+0 is 0. 3 people travelled all the way from Brazil through some other countries to get here and low and behold they are carrying the Brazilian strain. do the math Leo


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## Ceist Beag

I really hope people listen to the advice for tomorrow and that we don't end up setting our progress back again. If my experience in town this evening is anything to go by I'm not optimistic. The first bit of good weather and people are out in large groups again. If the numbers jump again in two weeks we'll only have ourselves to blame.


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## Merowig

Numbers are rising on the Continent already again - likely they will do here as well - regardless of St Patrick’s Day.


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## deanpark

john luc said:


> One more thing that has bother me is the lazy way RTE interview the politicians. Last January a nice asking of Leo about the issue of travel as a source was put down with a tut tut and a don't be blaming those that travel as its really US that are just not behaving. December there was no UK Variant but by end of February 90% of all cases are now reported as UK Variant. So Leo, how about some math, 1+1 is 2, 2+2 is 4, and so on so the 91 year old who gets it and transfers it is number 10,000. But serious travel control means 0+0 is 0, and 0+0 is 0. 3 people travelled all the way from Brazil through some other countries to get here and low and behold they are carrying the Brazilian strain. do the math Leo


Do the math? I didn't do honours maths and can't fathom the above.


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## joe sod

The lockdown is effectively over now, the young have basically reverted back to socialising again,  I saw them wandering back from parties early this morning in a student town, the guards know this too because they are ignoring it once nobody makes a complaint. The over 80s are well advanced in vaccination,  once the over 70s are done the lockdowns must end. The north and UK will be open anyway,  nphet will lose authority if they persist in trying to maintain meaningless restrictions. 
Last night on late late show,  Mario rosenstock made fun of nphet and the health experts. It was brave of him but it shows that even RTE has picked up on the changing mood in the country.


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## odyssey06

Some info on outbreaks at todays briefing


Examples: Student outbreak in Limerick, childcare outbreak in Offaly, outbreaks in the Travelling community, as well as schools and meat factories.


			https://mobile.twitter.com/newschambers/status/1374067503186460672


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## TrundleAlong

One day our cases are high (hopes dashed) then the next day our cases are lower (hopes high) and then the next day they are high again (hopes dashed again).......Is it the HSE not recording the daily cases properly.

It's almost cruelty at this stage.


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## EasilyAmused

Keep an eye on the 14-day incidence rate and the 7-day rate.  These are more revealing.


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## Purple

TrundleAlong said:


> One day our cases are high (hopes dashed) then the next day our cases are lower (hopes high) and then the next day they are high again (hopes dashed again).......Is it the HSE not recording the daily cases properly.
> 
> It's almost cruelty at this stage.


Case numbers are a terrible metric to use. They depend on live reporting and the amount of testing being done.
We were told a short while ago that our case numbers were as high as the worst rates last year but we are testing vastly more people so in reality the infection rate was much lower.

I think it's more to do with frightening people into complying with the restrictions than giving accurate data.


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## joe sod

Well then stop giving the daily case numbers suche attention and reverence,  they are clearly a flawed statistic now anyway. In fact stop the daily nphet press conferences,  2 a week is enough. Put them to work getting the vaccine rollout in order so that we are ready when supplies really increase. In fact get nphet off the stage completely or just as an adjoint to Michael martin. In UK boris Johnson is the face of the pandemic not backroom technocrats.


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## TrundleAlong

Did someone really say that our cases were increasing because people were having cups of coffee together?  Is this factual or another way to frighten us?


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## Sunny

I don't mind them reporting daily numbers but the media should start using some cop on when it comes to reporting them. They announce the headline number without any mention of the 7 day and 14 day incidence rate which is much more important. So is the positivity rate. I saw reporting that referrals for swab testing went up over 40% in a week last week and yet the reported testing numbers and positivity doesn't support that. 

Yesterday the journal reported a 'slight' drop in hospital numbers. There was almost a 10% drop in people in hospital which is not slight. RTE reported it as a significant drop. Despite 500-700 cases a day, we are not seeing increased numbers on people going to hospital with daily admissions/healthcare obtained cases standing at around 20-30 a day. And most days we see more people leaving hospital than being admitted. Most days we will see none or at most 1-2 admissions to ICU. Despite thousands of cases over the past four weeks, hospital numbers and ICU numbers have decreased. 

This pandemic is still dangerous. We can't lose control of it again but from talking to people, there is noting but despair at hearing 500-700 cases a day like we are heading for another Christmas. We are not. 

The reporting narrative needs to change. Having up to date and detailed information around the vaccines would help but it is still a black hole to a large extent.


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## EmmDee

Purple said:


> Case numbers are a terrible metric to use. They depend on live reporting and the amount of testing being done.
> We were told a short while ago that our case numbers were as high as the same the worst rates last year but we are testing vastly more people so in reality the infection rate was much lower.



I think this is a good point. The infection rate has been decreasing steadily over the last month (currently 3.9%). I also noted the 7 day average "tests completed" is at 105k which is up about 7-10k from a week or two ago. That would imply that just the increased testing would reflect about 400 more positives.


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## Leo

joe sod said:


> Well then stop giving the daily case numbers suche attention and reverence, they are clearly a flawed statistic now anyway. In fact stop the daily nphet press conferences, 2 a week is enough.



How about avoiding the start of the news most days? They'll keep reporting as long as there is sufficient demand for daily updates.


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## DublinHead54

Sunny said:


> I don't mind them reporting daily numbers but the media should start using some cop on when it comes to reporting them. They announce the headline number without any mention of the 7 day and 14 day incidence rate which is much more important. So is the positivity rate.



RTE used to go the effort of scaling NI cases up to the irish equivalent based on population to show that the north was doing much worse. They conveniently stopped doing that when it swung the other way. 

I would agree that point in time daily cases numbers are not a good metric at this point.


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## Leper

While walking in a leafy suburb of Cork yesterday I came across a group of teenagers playing football in a locked outdoor football 5-a-side area. To their credit they appeared to be enjoying themselves. I stopped counting them when I reached 150. None was social distancing and none wore a face mask. A co-walker suggested they were "Leaving Certs" enjoying a break from their studies towards Easter. To be fair to the fairer sex there wasn't a female amongst them. 

Then watching the Six O'Clock News last evening and while Mr McGrath was being interviewed (just before attending a government restrictions raising meeting) in the background a group of young ladies were walking together unmasked and not socially distancing. I bet they were "Leaving Certs" too. 

The Bottom Line here is that the Covid Death Rate in Ireland is higher in the first twelve weeks of 2021 than it was in all of 2020. I hope the government knows what it is doing. We will find out later today.


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## Purple

Leper said:


> While walking in a leafy suburb of Cork yesterday I came across a group of teenagers playing football in a locked outdoor football 5-a-side area. To their credit they appeared to be enjoying themselves. I stopped counting them when I reached 150. None was social distancing and none wore a face mask. A co-walker suggested they were "Leaving Certs" enjoying a break from their studies towards Easter. To be fair to the fairer sex there wasn't a female amongst them.
> 
> Then watching the Six O'Clock News last evening and while Mr McGrath was being interviewed (just before attending a government restrictions raising meeting) in the background a group of young ladies were walking together unmasked and not socially distancing. I bet they were "Leaving Certs" too.
> 
> The Bottom Line here is that the Covid Death Rate in Ireland is higher in the first twelve weeks of 2021 than it was in all of 2020. I hope the government knows what it is doing. We will find out later today.


The death rate was higher because of the UK variant and household visits over Christmas.

Teenagers playing football outside present a much lower risk of infection than someone just "popping in" to a friend or neighbour for a coffee. 
The needs of those teenagers as a cohort should also be taken into account. They are at virtually no risk from the disease and yet the restrictions have had the greatest short and long term impact on them. I have a great deal of sympathy for them.


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## Leper

Purple said:


> The death rate was higher because of the UK variant and household visits over Christmas.
> 
> Teenagers playing football outside present a much lower risk of infection than someone just "popping in" to a friend or neighbour for a coffee.
> The needs of those teenagers as a cohort should also be taken into account. They are at virtually no risk from the disease and yet the restrictions have had the greatest short and long term impact on them. I have a great deal of sympathy for them.


I don't have sympathy for anybody in the situation. I'm obeying all the restrictions, so should they.


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## Ceist Beag

I have a lot of sympathy for teenagers and young adults. These are years where social interaction is a crucial part of their lives. I am all in favour of teenagers meeting a few friends outdoors for a walk, I think they need that. The risk outdoors is very low and as long as they can meet in sensible numbers and adhere to the guidelines I wouldn't have an issue with it. In fact I'm pretty sure this is already happening all around the country as the people have moved ahead of the guidelines and the Government need to recognise this in todays announcement or risk losing the people.
I wouldn't agree though with large groups playing football together. 150 sounds like a crazy number, I wouldn't even try to defend that!


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## michaelm

Ceist Beag said:


> In fact I'm pretty sure this is already happening all around the country as the people have moved ahead of the guidelines and the Government need to recognise this in todays announcement or risk losing the people.


For sure people, majority maybe, have moved ahead.  The Government may shorten the gap today but won't bridge it.


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## Purple

Leper said:


> I don't have sympathy for anybody in the situation. I'm obeying all the restrictions, so should they.


You are at risk from the disease. They are not. The restrictions have a far greater impact on them than they do on you.


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## EasilyAmused

Leper said:


> ....none wore a face mask.



Wearing a mask during physical activity is ridiculous.


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## Purple

EasilyAmused said:


> Wearing a mask during physical activity is ridiculous.


Unless you're robbing a post office or such like.


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## odyssey06

EasilyAmused said:


> Wearing a mask during physical activity is ridiculous.


There were cases and spread at outdoor yoga sessions. 
Being outdoors isn't 100% safe, sustained close contact \ extra droplets dispersed in heavy breathing is still a risk. 
To be safe, you need to mitigate the risk either with distancing or masks etc


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## Purple

odyssey06 said:


> There were cases and spread at outdoor yoga sessions.
> Being outdoors isn't 100% safe, sustained close contact \ extra droplets dispersed in heavy breathing is still a risk.
> To be safe, you need to mitigate the risk either with distancing or masks etc


Being anywhere isn't 100% safe. Being outdoors is, in itself, a very strong mitigating factor.
Being outdoors playing football with no mask is lower risk than being indoors in a standard kitchen or living room while wearing a mask.


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## odyssey06

Purple said:


> Being anywhere isn't 100% safe. Being outdoors is, in itself, a very strong mitigating factor.
> Being outdoors playing football with no mask is lower risk than being indoors in a standard kitchen or living room while wearing a mask.


Probably have to ban man to man marking though. Only zonal defence allowed.


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## EasilyAmused

odyssey06 said:


> There were cases and spread at outdoor yoga sessions.
> Being outdoors isn't 100% safe, sustained close contact \ extra droplets dispersed in heavy breathing is still a risk.
> To be safe, you need to mitigate the risk either with distancing or masks etc



I’d prefer to follow the WHO advice on this. Do not wear a mask during physical activity.


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## odyssey06

EasilyAmused said:


> I’d prefer to follow the WHO advice on this. Do not wear a mask during physical activity.


That's not quite the WHO advice though is it. It mentions "vigorous intensity physical activity" and would also advise you don't do this activity in the immediate vicinity of others.


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## Merowig

Leper said:


> I don't have sympathy for anybody in the situation. I'm obeying all the restrictions, so should they.


Some of the rules imposed are quite arbitrary and some were even laughable. Just recalling for example the substantial meal rule of 9,50 Euro - as if the Virus would distinguish here between people having a meal and not having that meal.
Or the rule which limited the time you could have spent in a restaurant / pub - which encouraged pub crawling...
The parks here where I live are full all the time with people of all ages congregating, drinking together, etc.
The Garda only made once an effort in spring last year get that dissolved - never ever.

Several neighbours here are doing renovations - exchange of windows and doors, others do new gutters, new walls, etc.
I assume Garda is looking the other way as along as no neighbour is complaining.


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## odyssey06

Merowig said:


> Some of the rules imposed are quite arbitrary and some were even laughable. Just recalling for example the substantial meal rule of 9,50 Euro - as if the Virus would distinguish here between people having a meal and not having that meal.


People behave differently when they are just out for drinking than out for a sit down meal.
More mingling, more loud talking etc
That's what the virus 'distinguishes' between.

That was the intention behind the substantial meal angle.
Other jurisdictions made distinctions on which premises could open with the intention of keeping booze only establishments shut.
All of them in a sense arbitrary, but with the same underlying rationale.
Probably they should have just gone with the original plan of restaurants only open and all pubs shut but gastropubs objected.

Similarly the time limited option was because the more time you spend in a place, the more exposed you are.
The more drinks you have, the less aware you are of need for distancing etc
You might go on a pub crawl but not an eating crawl.

People took the proverbial but what alternative measures would have been better?
If you have a better suggestion on how the establishments could have opened with safety restrictions that were enforceable and would be effective fire ahead.

As for outdoors, probably turning a blind eye as outdoors is less risk and if the stuff is going to happen, and powers v house parties are so limited, better it happens outdoor.


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## EasilyAmused

odyssey06 said:


> IIt mentions "vigorous intensity physical activity"


You haven’t seen 150 Cork lads play soccer then.


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## EasilyAmused

odyssey06 said:


> People behave differently when they are just out for drinking than out for a sit down meal.
> More mingling, more loud talking etc
> That's what the virus 'distinguishes' between.


Thank you @odyssey66.
I can’t believe some people don’t understand the €9.50 meal advisory, nine months later!


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## Leo

EasilyAmused said:


> Thank you @odyssey66.
> I can’t believe some people don’t understand the €9.50 meal advisory, nine months later!



I suspect many don't want to understand it because they just want to go back to the boozer regardless of the consequences!


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## odyssey06

There's a recent BBC article outlining outdoor v indoor








						Covid: Can you catch the virus outside?
					

The risks of catching Covid indoors are well-known, but what are the chances of being infected outdoors?



					www.bbc.com
				




I would be curious as well re: climate and wind as a factor... we rarely get 'dead calm' weather here but in a hot and humid climate there may be less wind and so less dispersal of droplets.


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## EasilyAmused

Brownian Motion, anyone?


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## Purple

EasilyAmused said:


> Brownian Motion, anyone?


The wind, any wind, will have a greater influence on particle movement. If it's sunny then the sun will have a greater effect. Anyway, it's more about the random movement of atoms than water particles, which are bigger and heavier and therefore more influenced by gravity.


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## SlugBreath

The COVIDIOTS thread seems to have disappeared.  I knew that I should not have gone to Lidl on a Thursday and especially a Thursday when they got their gardening items in for the first time.  Today in Lidl Stillorgan it was like a scrum. Aisles packed with people jostling to get their hands on all sorts of gardening items. Planter boxes being set up in the aisles, trolleys piled high.....not one person was social distancing. This was at 8 a.m.

Lots of people walking around with with a glazed/ panic FOMO look in their eyes. It was an unsettling experience.

I was probably the bigger covidiot having gone there in the first place, especially seeing as I was not there for gardening items.


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## Ceist Beag

I made the mistake of going to Lidl a few weeks back. The difference between it and my usual visits to Dunnes was night and day. People squeezing past each other, brushing against you to reach in for something, I respect personal space and expect others to do the same so it really wound me up. I did notice an increase in numbers in Dunnes this week but in fairness the tannoy was quick to remind people to keep social distance (it was not a pre-recorded message either so people were aware they were being monitored).


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## Purple

I love Dunnes but I spend twice as much as I do in Lidl. That's mainly due to my general love of cooking and eating food and drinking and so forth. 
I'd say the social distancing in the food hall in M&S is superb since only pensioners have enough money to shop there.


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## EasilyAmused

The shelves of M&S are usually empty due to supply issues.


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## Purple

EasilyAmused said:


> The shelves of M&S are usually empty due to supply issues.


Jasus, the pensioners must be struggling, what with all the restaurants closed as well.


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## SlugBreath

My local M & S in Blackrock is always pretty busy. The problem with the store is that they have hot air shooting down on top of your head from these cannon type things. They would put a parting in your hair.   It is terribly uncomfortable.  As a result I just cannot shop there in the winter time.


Purple said:


> I'd say the social distancing in the food hall in M&S is superb since only pensioners have enough money to shop there.


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## Leper

Purple said:


> Jasus, the pensioners must be struggling, what with all the restaurants closed as well.


That is a dreadful insult. Where would all the grandchildren be if there were no grandparents around to buy the bigger expensive Easter Eggs that parents who won't buy or are unable to afford? Next you'll be expecting us to shop in Lidl! Now, where's my bus pass as I heard there are loads of Easter Eggs in M&S? That bottle of wine in their excellent take-away-meal section is attractive too. (Oh God! Just remembered this is Good Friday).

I'll let you back to discussing the ins+outs of Senior Loans, re-mortgaging, the honesty of some in Davey and the friendliness of the banks, Eircom's customer service and if a manhole is improperly named etc. No horse racing today either. Things can only get better . . .


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## odyssey06

I guess this is the French version of a shebeen \ golf gate 

_Police in Paris fined over 100 diners late Friday at an underground restaurant flouting coronavirus restrictions and arrested its organiser, after a week of allegations that ministers attended similar rule-breaking events.
_








						French police bust 100 people breaking Covid restrictions in underground restaurant
					

Participants were shown enjoying caviar and champagne at the event costing €220 per person.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## odyssey06

Spike in Covid-19 cases linked to school and workplace outbreaks
					

Further 10 deaths due to Covid-19 and 617 new cases reported




					www.irishtimes.com


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## Purple

odyssey06 said:


> Spike in Covid-19 cases linked to school and workplace outbreaks
> 
> 
> Further 10 deaths due to Covid-19 and 617 new cases reported
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.irishtimes.com


The ECDC has said that school cases are driven by community outbreaks, not the other way around.
The phrase Property Porn is used to describe all the TV programs about doing up, building and generally looking at houses. I'm starting to thing that the media is engaging in a sort of Covid porn.


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## odyssey06

Purple said:


> The ECDC has said that school cases are driven by community outbreaks, not the other way around.


Yes but when it makes its way into the schools its acceleration triggers some more cases, which feed back into the community.
I'm not saying schools are unsafe or we should shut them, but people should be aware that some of the cases are because of schools but keeping schools open is a priority.

As for the media, it's nothing particular to covid. Big stories get overkill. There's 24/7 news channels, websites want new articles every hour.


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## Purple

odyssey06 said:


> Yes but when it makes its way into the schools its acceleration triggers some more cases, which feed back into the community.
> I'm not saying schools are unsafe or we should shut them, but people should be aware that some of the cases are because of schools but keeping schools open is a priority.


The point is that 8 cases in a school are less likely to cause further infections than 8 cases in the community generally.


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## Sunny

odyssey06 said:


> Yes but when it makes its way into the schools its acceleration triggers some more cases, which feed back into the community.
> I'm not saying schools are unsafe or we should shut them, but people should be aware that some of the cases are because of schools but keeping schools open is a priority.
> 
> As for the media, it's nothing particular to covid. Big stories get overkill. There's 24/7 news channels, websites want new articles every hour.



All you have to do is walk down any street in Ireland and see the amount of teenagers that are on top of each other every evening for the last couple of months. A lot of these would be school friends so if one gets it, a few get it and then say school is the common denominator while ignoring their actions outside the controlled environment of schools. 

Primary schools are different because it is much harder for younger kids to social distance and you will see higher positivity rate in these settings (albeit still low) but I would be very sceptical about how much of the positivity rate in secondary schools is down to transmission within schools.


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## Purple

Sunny said:


> All you have to do is walk down any street in Ireland and see the amount of teenagers that are on top of each other every evening for the last couple of months.


And that's still low risk since they are outside.


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## EasilyAmused

70 cases detected at Intel’s building site!
How can that be?


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## Clamball

I think we should start focusing on the median age each day and the % below 45.  Yesterday it was 78% under 45 and median age of 29.  So driving the cases into younger ages with the vaccination of the other groups means there is a much lesser chance of serious illness and death (not a zero chance).  So this allows optimism even at 400 cases a day as the majority will not die.  Before the vaccine they were able to say that for every 1000 cases so many would be hospitalised and so many would end up in ICU and 5-7 would die.  I assume they are running the numbers now every week, and these are reducing exponentially.  So a country can live with a certain level of illness if a significant majority recover well from a short illness.  Then preventing new strains getting in and gradually opening up along with the continuation of the vaccines will make it all work.


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## Purple

EasilyAmused said:


> 70 cases detected at Intel’s building site!
> How can that be?


It's one of the biggest construction sites in the country.


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## odyssey06

Clamball said:


> I think we should start focusing on the median age each day and the % below 45.  Yesterday it was 78% under 45 and median age of 29.  So driving the cases into younger ages with the vaccination of the other groups means there is a much lesser chance of serious illness and death (not a zero chance).  So this allows optimism even at 400 cases a day as the majority will not die.  Before the vaccine they were able to say that for every 1000 cases so many would be hospitalised and so many would end up in ICU and 5-7 would die.  I assume they are running the numbers now every week, and these are reducing exponentially.  So a country can live with a certain level of illness if a significant majority recover well from a short illness.  Then preventing new strains getting in and gradually opening up along with the continuation of the vaccines will make it all work.


The number I heard for under 60s was 35 out of 1000 would need hospitalisation but unclear if that was for under 60s without vulnerable conditions.


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## Leo

Purple said:


> It's one of the biggest construction sites in the country.


Exactly, it's a small town in itself with ~5,000 people working there.


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## EasilyAmused

That’s a disgrace. 
70 cases from 5,000 builders is 1,400 cases per 100,000. Is there no social distancing? Is there no hand washing? Do they not wear masks? There’s definitely no cop on! That’s worse than a meat factory?

I assume the construction work is at an advanced stage and it’s the indoor facilities, fabs, etc. Surely 1,400 per 100,000 would be impossible if it was an outdoor site.


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## odyssey06

EasilyAmused said:


> That’s a disgrace.
> 70 cases from 5,000 builders is 1,400 cases per 100,000. Is there no social distancing? Is there no hand washing? Do they not wear masks? There’s definitely no cop on! That’s worse than a meat factory?
> 
> I assume the construction work is at an advanced stage and it’s the indoor facilities, fabs, etc. Surely 1,400 per 100,000 would be impossible if it was an outdoor site.


it's to know is it what's happening on site or not.
What they are doing on their lunch breaks, weekends might be a factor also. Are they sharing cars to work, dropping all precautions when off the clock.


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## Leo

odyssey06 said:


> What they are doing on their lunch breaks, weekends might be a factor also. Are they sharing cars to work, dropping all precautions when off the clock.



The outbreaks attributed to the meat factories last year told a similar story, the people mixing off-site and in transport was a major factor.


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## Paul O Mahoney

odyssey06 said:


> it's to know is it what's happening on site or not.
> What they are doing on their lunch breaks, weekends might be a factor also. Are they sharing cars to work, dropping all precautions when off the clock.


Intel has a fleet of private buses picking up construction workers from railway stations all around the area.

The site is over a mile ( told this) from front to back, with employees and contractors its a town essentially.

Apparently Intel also bought a large number of apartments in Maynooth last year to house people during construction as many have come from around the globe.


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## Leo

EasilyAmused said:


> That’s worse than a meat factory?



Really?  For context, there are ~15,000 working across more than 50 processing plants across the country.


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## EasilyAmused

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Intel has a fleet of private buses picking up construction workers from railway stations all around the area.


That’s terrible. 
A meat plant close to where a friend lives that had an outbreak during the second wave had also been using a bus to carry workers to the plant. Even during the pandemic.

The authorities should stamp this out immediately. Even public transport is running at only 25% capacity.


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## SiobhanK

I heard that they have introduced some form of daily testing (antigen perhaps) for workers to get on site now


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## Paul O Mahoney

Sk1982 said:


> I heard that they have introduced some form of daily testing (antigen perhaps) for workers to get on site now


Not surprised Intel take Health and Safety to a level that sometimes seems extreme.


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## Paul O Mahoney

EasilyAmused said:


> That’s terrible.
> A meat plant close to where a friend lives that had an outbreak during the second wave had also been using a bus to carry workers to the plant. Even during the pandemic.
> 
> The authorities should stamp this out immediately. Even public transport is running at only 25% capacity.


I think they are complying with that 25% as one passed me a few weeks ago and it had notices on seats. 

If they didn't do this where would thousands of cars go traffic is bad enough around this area.


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## Leo

EasilyAmused said:


> That’s a disgrace.
> 70 cases from 5,000 builders is 1,400 cases per 100,000. Is there no social distancing? Is there no hand washing? Do they not wear masks? There’s definitely no cop on! That’s worse than a meat factory?





EasilyAmused said:


> That’s terrible.
> A meat plant close to where a friend lives that had an outbreak during the second wave had also been using a bus to carry workers to the plant.


Very quick to jump in and call this a disgrace or terrible with little or no knowledge or understanding of the situation there!


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## EasilyAmused

Leo said:


> Very quick to jump in and call this a disgrace or terrible with little or no knowledge or understanding of the situation there!


70 cases that have been identified and notified. It just seems a lot to me in one site (even if there are 5,000 builders there).
Construction only reopened in the last week or two or three?

But, maybe they’ve legitimate reasons for the outbreak.


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## Paul O Mahoney

EasilyAmused said:


> 70 cases that have been identified and notified. It just seems a lot to me in one site (even if there are 5,000 builders there).
> Construction only reopened in the last week or two or three?
> 
> But, maybe they’ve legitimate reasons for the outbreak.


That site hasn't closed its deemed essential.


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## EasilyAmused

Paul O Mahoney said:


> That site hasn't closed its deemed essential.


Just like my neighbours extension


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## Purple

EasilyAmused said:


> Just like my neighbours extension


Eh no, not like your neighbours extension. Your neighbours extension isn't going to create hundreds of jobs and generate millions in tax revenue for the people of Ireland... or do you live beside a big factory in Leixlip?


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## EasilyAmused

The figure has been revised upwards to 85 and Intel will not be updating the figure any further.









						Intel Covid-19 outbreak: says it is ‘not providing an update’ on number of Covid-19 infections after outbreak
					

Intel says it will not be providing an update on how many workers on its construction site in Co Kildare have now tested positive for Covid-19 “at this time”.




					www.independent.ie


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## Leo

EasilyAmused said:


> The figure has been revised upwards to 85 and Intel will not be updating the figure any further.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Intel Covid-19 outbreak: says it is ‘not providing an update’ on number of Covid-19 infections after outbreak
> 
> 
> Intel says it will not be providing an update on how many workers on its construction site in Co Kildare have now tested positive for Covid-19 “at this time”.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.independent.ie



So they're now up to the level previously seen in a single meat factory with a few hundred workers...on a site with 5,000 and hundreds more delivering supplies on a daily basis.


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## EasilyAmused

All meat factories all indoor though. Transmission rates are *considerably* lower outdoors.


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## Leo

EasilyAmused said:


> All meat factories all indoor though. Transmission rates are *considerably* lower outdoors.



You haven't seen that site have you?


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## Paul O Mahoney

EasilyAmused said:


> All meat factories all indoor though. Transmission rates are *considerably* lower outdoors.


Leo got there first


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## EasilyAmused

Leo said:


> You haven't seen that site have you?



No, not the one in County Kildare. I’ve been to the one in Santa Clara (California) though. 
Alas, I left my microelectronics career in the last century in favour of software engineering.


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## EasilyAmused

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Leo got there first


?


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## EasilyAmused

EasilyAmused said:


> How can that be?



To go back to my original question, how can the infection rate on an outdoor site be so high?
85 cases reported out of 5,000 builders. 
@Leo has pointed out that this rate is equivalent to outbreaks in meat factories.  However, the latter are indoor.

Is Intel applying a Moore’s Law to Covid transmission?


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## Leo

EasilyAmused said:


> No, not the one in County Kildare. I’ve been to the one in Santa Clara (California) though.
> Alas, I left my microelectronics career in the last century in favour of software engineering.


So you have just continued to make incorrect assumption after incorrect assumption on this story.


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## EasilyAmused

Leo said:


> So you have just continued to make incorrect assumption after incorrect assumption on this story.



What assumptions have I made? I’m just wondering how the cases numbers are so high (1,700 per 100,000) in this construction site.  

Very relevant and accurate to the thread title: “
Why are our new case numbers of Covid so high....every day.”​


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## Leo

EasilyAmused said:


> To go back to my original question, how can the infection rate on an outdoor site be so high?
> 85 cases reported out of 5,000 builders.
> @Leo has pointed out that this rate is equivalent to outbreaks in meat factories.  However, the latter are indoor.
> 
> Is Intel applying a Moore’s Law to Covid transmission?



Perhaps because the vast majority of work at the moment is indoors?

Note, I absolutely did not say the *RATE *is equivalent. I said the 85 number (again, not a rate) on a site with 5,000+ is the same as one of the worst meat factory outbreaks that had 85 cases among a few hundred workers.


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## EasilyAmused

Leo said:


> So you have just continued to make incorrect assumption after incorrect assumption on this story.



Of course, as I previously asked and suggested, it may be an indoor site. 
But nobody knows. 
Maybe someone can swing by when inter-county travel is permitted.


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## EasilyAmused

Leo said:


> Perhaps because the vast majority of work at the moment is indoors?



Ahhhh, finally someone confirms that it’s indoors.


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## Leo

EasilyAmused said:


> What assumptions have I made?



You're assuming outdoor transmission, you assumed the rate here are worse that the meat factories, you assumed the transport wasn't following the same measures as public transport. Even the Daily Mail doesn't try so hard to make up a story with no attempt to ascertain the facts.


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