# Social/Economic Ireland in 20 yrs? Get out the crystal ball and tell me what you see?



## redkenner (22 Aug 2006)

Im interested in peoples opinion on the subject,so get out your crystal ball and tell me what you see.


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## Guest107 (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Cliftonville  4-3 Glentoran 1-2


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## room305 (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

The introduction of ultra low corporation taxes to attract Chinese and Indian investment.


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## Guest107 (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Irish Restaurants seling Chow Mein 

Kow Towing lessons in primary school (never mind secondary)


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## stargazer (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

A guerilla army being set up to stop unification of north and south Ireland, not by loyalists but by southeners sick and tired of all the northeners coming down to the republic telling everyone how expensive it is down here and how great it is back north. Three words- Connolly Station, Busarus.


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## Massey (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

lots of men and women working at age 90 - to supplement pension stocks which have gone AWOL and trying to pay back 100% mortgages they go in their 20's and 30's thinking it was a great idea - until the housing market crashed in 2008.

But some seriously cool cars!


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## whizzbang (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Ireland still recovering from the "Black Debt" of 2008 to 2012,


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## CelloPoint (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Depressing country full of miserable people living out their debt-ridden lives. "If only I could re-live those Dundrum shopping centre days..."


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## evan (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

a much wiser and mature nation, probably more inward looking again , the celtic renaissance will be over. I think we are at the peak of our influence now in the world. This was lead alot by ireland's disproportionate influence in america due to the influence of irish americans. Irish americans are probably less irish than they were due to their more distant links with the country and the fact that there is no longer a new wave of immigration to replenish it.


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## autumnleaf (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Oil will become increasingly more expensive, leaving a flight from the suburbs. Nobody will want to live in the cramped, energy-inefficient, poorly-insulated, car-dependent suburban apartments built in the early '00s. There will be massive dynamiting as seen with some of the tower-blocks of the '60s.

Improvements in wind and wave power could lead us to a less oil-dependent situation, but if these cannot cover the backlog then we will see nuclear stations in Ireland. (See other thread on this issue). 
Many of the Eastern Europeans will have gone home after their home economies improve, but others will stay and many children in the schools will have one or both parents from another country. Bilingualism will be a lot more normal and Polish will be a popular Leaving Cert subject. 

Lots of people in the late-40s/early-50s age group, plus a slight demographic bump for their teenage children. Income tax and VAT increased so that this age group can cover both pension costs plus education of these children. A surge in demand for: hair dye, HRT, Viagra. Playstation 23 also popular. 

Holiday homes in Lahinch flooded due to rising sea levels, including that 300K toilet. Holiday homes in Bulgaria repossessed by the local mafia. 

"Retro" fashion for "noughties" clothes and music, but only in an "ironic" way. Podge and Rodge seen as classic television.


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## HighFlier (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Irelands influence in America is largely gone as Americans realise that its all one way traffic, we expect their tourism and investment but feel free to portray ourselves as increasingly anti American.

The loss of our "special status" will over time pull the rug out from under the "Celtic Tiger" and by time we see it it will be too late.


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## Persius (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

<dramatic version>
Ireland hit hard by the recession in 2008 to 2012 and many of the young, able bodied foreigners leave. However the country is small and flexible. Following a realisation that we all have to work for a living, the country starts picking up. We cleverly manage to latch on the the Asian boom of 2015 to 2020 (in much the same way that we latched on to the US boom of the last 10 years). However Britian's financial state is getting worse as their population is somewhat older and less educated than ours. They eventually get sick of subsidising Northern Ireland which now has a 50:50 population split and also a public sector counting for 50% of the economy. In 2022, just as the asian boom is coming to an end, Britian hands Northern Ireland over to the Republic. By this stage the 26 counties too has an aging population and a huge pension bill. There is short term euphoria, and some EU and UN peace money sloshing around the economy. However, (re)unification ultimatly cripples the economy, in much the same way that it crippled the German one in the 90s.
</dramatic version>

<normal version>
Ireland will be a mature aging economy, like much of continental europe. There will be higher unemployment, especially amongst the young and poorly educated. But good salaries for those in high end jobs. The social divide will be wider and many of the appartments constructed from 1996 to 2006 will be viewed in much the same way as old student flats were viewed in the 80s and early 90s - awful kips.
</normal version>

<optimistic version>
The property boom is still continueing. We're all millionaires, with investment properties let out to immigrant workers who do all the work required for the economy. We need a special sign at EU meetings as the name of the state must now be stated in all 19 official languages of Ireland/Eire/Irland/Irlanda/Irlande/Irsko/Irlandia/Ирландиа//تױئؤ..
</optimistic version>


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## ninsaga (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

- Cork winning at least another 12 All Ireland Hurling Finals by then. 6 of the players will be either of African or Chinese descent.

- Roy Keane as ROI manager will have taken us to the world cup semi finals once, to the European championships twice (we made the finals but lost to Germany again!). He continues to be hailed a national hero for reviving the nation from the dark Staunton era. 

- The obesity problem really comes to the fore & FF are blamed by the SF/Green Party government for not effectively promoting healthy lifestyles in 2000-2010

- The Luas extends out to portlaois (commutor town)

- Nobody can spell anymore 

- No cure yet found for arthritis of the thumbs (from that ancient technology called texting or something - imaging that people having to type messages with their thumbs! - idiots)

- Rolling Stones head up at Slane again


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## Guest107 (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Most of Cork under seawater , the Real Capital is now Clonmel


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## joe sod (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

<normal version>
Ireland will be a mature aging economy, like much of continental europe. There will be higher unemployment, especially amongst the young and poorly educated. But good salaries for those in high end jobs. The social divide will be wider and many of the appartments constructed from 1996 to 2006 will be viewed in much the same way as old student flats were viewed in the 80s and early 90s - awful kips.
</normal version>

What basis do you have for assuming that there will be good salaries for high end jobs. Many commentators are predicting that due to the internet revolution which is only now starting to be felt those in high end jobs now are going to start really feeling the competition from globalisation. So the pool of people working in protected areas will have shrunk, well that is unless protectionism rears its head again. But even protectionism cannot prevent this economic tide.


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## stargazer (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Much of newly built docklands are under water, high ground is at a permium but is covered by windmills. Sales of boats soar as a means of commuting. The military dictatorship under El Preidento Gerry Adams turns the Curragh into a vast holding complex for "re-education" of counter revolutionaries. Michael Mc Dowell holds a startegic defensive position controlling traffic on the river Shannon. New Garda uniform consists of Celtic jersies and hurleys.
14 Big Brother contestants die of starvation because viewing figures dropped so much that everyone forget they were still in the house. Glenda Gilson captains the Irish team to 5 nations victory, proving the old saying that hell hath no fury.
The port Tunnel is officially the most expensive sewerage system ever constructed.
The remaining pubs in the country are given a cultural preservation order.
Gardai report an upsurge in arrests for tobacco use since tobacco was reclassified a class b drug in 2018.


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## ninsaga (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*



2Pack said:


> Most of Cork under seawater , the Real Capital is now Clonmel


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## Persius (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*



joe sod said:


> What basis do you have for assuming that there will be good salaries for high end jobs. Many commentators are predicting that due to the internet revolution which is only now starting to be felt those in high end jobs now are going to start really feeling the competition from globalisation. So the pool of people working in protected areas will have shrunk, well that is unless protectionism rears its head again. But even protectionism cannot prevent this economic tide.


 
In the IT world, we've already found out that there are certain high tech jobs which can't be easily out-sourced, even though the technology often already exists to outsource the job. Human nature is a very powerful factor to consider. If I'm an Irish business that needs IT services which are going to cost me a few hundred thousand euro, I will not perform the whole transaction on-line without talking to, or meeting face-to-face, a single himan being. A very simplistic example I know, but if I'm spending huge money on a service, I want the assurances that my supplier is genuine. That usually comes with local contact and local support. 

That's also why we have salesmen. High tech, high end, expensive products rarely sell themselves. Human interaction will always be required in many fields and _local_ human interaction will remain important. The high paying jobs will involve technical skills and knowledge of the local market. I know it's a pretty crap explanation. I'd need to research and write a whole essay to really justify it, but it's a gut feeling I have based on my own work, and periods looking for work, over the past few years in Ireland and abroad.


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## askalot (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Less congestion on the roads, public transport will boom and 4x4s will only be seen on 'I Love the 00s' TV shows. Peak oil will have achieved what our government never had the backbone to do!


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## joe sod (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*



Persius said:


> In the IT world, we've already found out that there are certain high tech jobs which can't be easily out-sourced, even though the technology often already exists to outsource the job. Human nature is a very powerful factor to consider. If I'm an Irish business that needs IT services which are going to cost me a few hundred thousand euro, I will not perform the whole transaction on-line without talking to, or meeting face-to-face, a single himan being. A very simplistic example I know, but if I'm spending huge money on a service, I want the assurances that my supplier is genuine. That usually comes with local contact and local support.
> 
> That's also why we have salesmen. High tech, high end, expensive products rarely sell themselves. Human interaction will always be required in many fields and _local_ human interaction will remain important. The high paying jobs will involve technical skills and knowledge of the local market. I know it's a pretty crap explanation. I'd need to research and write a whole essay to really justify it, but it's a gut feeling I have based on my own work, and periods looking for work, over the past few years in Ireland and abroad.


 
But you assume that the human interaction will only be needed in the west. Whats to stop high end products from being produced in the east along with all the associated human interaction with no interaction needed in the west. I dont believe that salaries and living standards in the east can ever equal todays in the west due to the huge supply of labour both low end and high end. Today there is still alot of activity carried out in the areas you have pointed out due to the fact that technology is still very much in the hands of western companies. However if an asian microsoft or pfiser comes into being which is only a matter of time, then there will be huge pressure on wages and jobs in the west. This is because the technology will no longer be in the control of western companies.


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## ninsaga (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

The electronic voting machines & the port tunnel will feature on RTE's 'Reeling in the Years'

The average waiting time on a hospital trolley in A&E will be 9 days (cut in half from the scandleous 18 day waiting in 2017)


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## jammacjam (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

I predict we will all be too fat to get out of our houses.


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## ninsaga (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Depends on your house of course... maybe someone is thinking


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## Michael (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

-Tomachewski's grand nephew is new Goalie for Ireland. 
-National Grid can't cope with Air Conditioning in Summer.Most Dubliners flock to Donegal Caost to escape oppressive City temperatures.
- 2 Cs and 1 D qualifies for Medicine in Trinity
- 20 Euro pints in Cafe En Seine (10 Euros for hot nuts)
- Dubs really believe this time that they can win Sam for the first time since 95 
- Integrated ticketing system almost agreed upon in the Capital
- Electronic Voting machine unveiled in National History Museum
- 5 cent coin scrapped (1  & 2 cents went ages ago)


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## dontaskme (22 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Everyone can speak French, German or Chinese but no-one can spell without predictive texting.

Social Welfare has been outsourced to the French, health care to the Dutch, tax collection to the Germans, entire public service has been retired on superannuated überbenchmarked pensions.

Phoenix park is renamed Stagland and turned into a stag party theme park for Europeans who take the tunnel from Holland.

The Burren is paved over to make massive park and ride carpark for commuters to Dublin.

Tesco opens 10,000th store in Ireland, on top of Croagh Patrick.

Roy Keane is president of NFAI, the New FAI, which was founded by him after FAI was disestablished by popular demand in 2008.

Seán Óg O´Hailpin collects 24th All-Ireland hurling medal, having captained a Cork team composed entirely of O´Hailpins whose average age is 19.


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## bearishbull (23 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Dont think you'se are taking this too serious!


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## badabing (23 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*



joe sod said:


> But you assume that the human interaction will only be needed in the west. Whats to stop high end products from being produced in the east along with all the associated human interaction with no interaction needed in the west. I dont believe that salaries and living standards in the east can ever equal todays in the west due to the huge supply of labour both low end and high end. Today there is still alot of activity carried out in the areas you have pointed out due to the fact that technology is still very much in the hands of western companies. However if an asian microsoft or pfiser comes into being which is only a matter of time, then there will be huge pressure on wages and jobs in the west. This is because the technology will no longer be in the control of western companies.



Eastern companies with high end job openings are hiring westerners en masse, so many of us will look to the east increasingly for good work (and better weather). However there will always be a local market. Many jobs that can be systemised or semi automated will reduce in value.


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## phoenix_n (23 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

I think in 20 years time Ireland (more so Dublin) will be unrecognised as it is now. With immigration levels ireland will become a western satellite of eastern europe especially as it becomes the major gateway for those wishing to learn and speak the essential language of English. 

Thats my take.


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## Persius (23 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*



joe sod said:


> But you assume that the human interaction will only be needed in the west. Whats to stop high end products from being produced in the east along with all the associated human interaction with no interaction needed in the west. I dont believe that salaries and living standards in the east can ever equal todays in the west due to the huge supply of labour both low end and high end. Today there is still alot of activity carried out in the areas you have pointed out due to the fact that technology is still very much in the hands of western companies. However if an asian microsoft or pfiser comes into being which is only a matter of time, then there will be huge pressure on wages and jobs in the west. This is because the technology will no longer be in the control of western companies.


 
As badabing stated, eastern companies will want to expand to and sell in the west. In order to do this in Ireland, they will need skilled Paddys on the ground to do the selling, maintenance, marketing etc. You need knowledge of the local culture to do this. If you've worked in any multinationals you will see that there are still huge cultural differences in the approach to business even between the various western countries. What works in Germany often won't work in France or Ireland. So Asians probably have even less chance of understanding the local market. And there _will_ still be a local market in Ireland. Do you really think 4m people will just collectivly shrug their shoulders and say "ah well, we've priced ourselves out of the market, the asians are running the show now. We may as well just go back to cave dwelling, hunting and gathering, with perhaps a bit of barter thrown in."


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## lff12 (23 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

A bit more like the US.  A very unequal society.  Immigrant communities becoming much more mobilised and starting to have a political influence.  I would guess that there will be a huge gap between rich and poor, and a lot of apartment blocks in some areas will be de-gentrified by a high proportion of welfare-dependent tenants being housed there.

I would suspect that tax exiledom will become extremely common as taxes will have to rise to support the rise in the older population and a huge generation of people with no means to house themselves - unless by then social welfare levels have been drastically cut.


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## Guest107 (23 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

our peak population bulge will not retire until 2045 or later , seeing as they were born in 1980 .


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## binman (23 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 years?*

Some very interesting ideas about where we're going expressed so far.

When I put my pessimistic hat on, the following spring to light:

- Moves towards tax harmonisation in the EU (possibly tied up into an effort to address VAT fraud) - at the considerable expense of people employed in our fleet footed multinational sector.

- At the same time tax takes will be under pressure due to continued give-away (election-purchasing) budgets - leading to continued underfunding of current and capital expenditure and the associated infrastructure deficits.

- The ever increasing 'hollowing out' of our economic profile, with manufacturing and agriculture dwindling away to almost nothing at the expense of 'services' and tourism - both very vulnerable to external shocks.

- Chronic underfunding of R&D, in the Third Level sector as well as in indigenous and foreign firms, will lead to continued slipping down the value-chain for what little manufacturing remains.

- The lack of a co-ordinated energy policy, allied to the increased demands on energy caused by climate change and simple demographics will see nuclear energy firmly in the agenda. Renewable energy will be playing a much larger role but due to it's nature it will be insufficient. Our fines under the Kyoto Protocol should be kicking in during the timeframe too.

- Central Government and Local Authorities will be unable to properly service the unsustainably developed semi-rural sludge that has surrounded our major cities. A fundamental re-think about how we fund and organise our local services will be needed. Expect major political bun-fights over resources, services and local taxation. Of course the politicians time would be better spent on pressing national matters, but all politics is local.

- I would agree with David McWilliams that there will be increasing tension between elements of our increasingly multi-ethnic society, particularly among the economically disadvantaged. Along with unemployment of 8-10%, this will see poorly developed and under-resourced parts of our cities becoming no-go zones once again.

- I think there will be a recognition that the Celtic Tiger days were the boom years, not just for the generation that are retiring in 2026, but for the following two to three generations who will have to live with (and in) their legacy. There will be no Tigers spotted again in Ireland in living memory.

I seem to have mislaid my optimistic hat...


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## ajapale (24 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 yrs? Get out the crystal ball and tell me what you*

Since this discussion is clearly not a "Great Financial Debate" Im moving it to the more appropriate "Shoot the Breeze" section.

aj


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## car (24 Aug 2006)

*Re: Social/Economic Ireland in 20 yrs? Get out the crystal ball and tell me what you*

The atlantic tunnel will have commenced, but the irish had a faulty compass   and ended up in greenland and even then didnt cater for  super duper trucks.  The M50 will have 9 lanes in both directions with the toll being 14e per car.  Still gridlocked at 5pm on sundays when any team from the south is playing in croke park, and every exit off the M50 will be a feeder for a bright new shopping experience (sorry, lifeless mall).  We'll be able to vote with texts.   But the voting machines will only be able to accept votes from the new nokia 9943iiVTI 2.2.  You can also microwave soup with the phone.  Alternative methods of voting can be accepted via emails, but only if the mails are sent via a pc connected with the Govt ISP eircom .  You can get Broadband at speeds of up to 10GB per second.    Only if you live near the IFSC though, although the IFSC recently extended to the isle of man.


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