# Property market overvalued



## HB1 (14 Apr 2005)

[broken link removed] 
Now it is official.


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## eamonn66 (15 Apr 2005)

what do the imf know about ireland. id also say that unless we see major climate changes in spain ie no more sunshine , the prices there wont crash either.


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## Unregistered (15 Apr 2005)

Yeah what do the IMF know. Have they been to Ireland, I dont think so.  With the continued sunshine and all that sure it will be grand so it will to be sure, etc.


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## Cleudo (15 Apr 2005)

*The sky's falling down*

These external bodies have been predicting a price crash for donkey's years. Its a mugs game.

I often refer those trying to predict a crash to Mattew 24, verses 36 - 44.


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## Conan (15 Apr 2005)

The Economist, IMF etc have predicted 7 out of the last 2 property crashes. How about that for a success rate?

Conan


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## extopia (15 Apr 2005)

Sounds like 350% to me!


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## Cleudo (15 Apr 2005)

The Central Bank also predicted a price crash in 1998. Well spotted lads!!

Timing the market is a mugs game


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## Unregistered (15 Apr 2005)

If i gave bad advice like that at work i'd be fired. 
How do these guys keep their jobs if they are so bad at it.


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## Unregistered (15 Apr 2005)

Yeah sure they are all doom merchants who know nothing about Ireland.  The laws of supply and demand having been repealed in Ireland, we are immune to a change in the state of the global economy so we are, because of the Tiger economy and such like bedad.


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## Unregistered (15 Apr 2005)

*Re: Property market overvalued - Going up forever and beyond!*

Yes it is good to know that when you set foot on the shores of the emerald isle that the laws of supply and demand have been repealed. It is also great that falling rents have nothing to do with the price of property as well.


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## weedy (15 Apr 2005)

" It is also great that falling rents have nothing to do with the price of property as well."

Not at all and why would they sure. Yields and inveshtmints have been totally decoupled or did ye not hear


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## Unregistered (16 Apr 2005)

Up, Up, Up how dare they say that property will come down whatever next???   Do they not know that prperty will never, never, never and fall  in Ireland???


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## Unregistered (19 Apr 2005)

*Re: Property market overvalued?*

Food for thought....

http://www.rte.ie/business/2005/0419/houses.html


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## Unregistered (19 Apr 2005)

Looks like the soft landing we were all praying for


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## DaveF (19 Apr 2005)

Does anyone remember back to 2001 when house prices started to stagnate?. There was a major statement issued from the Building association of Ireland stating that house prices were going to rocket due to the fact that builders were not going to produce as many houses as the current year. As expected house prices rapidly started to rise again!. Funny how it worked out that there were a record number of houses produced for that year. 

No one other that the IMF is going to say the house prices are overvalued as the government,banks, estate agents etc all have their hand in the pot!. 

This market is fuelled but both fear and greed, fear that we may never get on the property ladder and we will pay almost anything we can to get on it and the greed of wanting to get rich quickly!...

As they say easy come easy go!


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## Summer (19 Apr 2005)

There seems to be a slight chill in the property market. Has anyone else noticed the new build adverts on the TV? Flynn Auctioneers in Castleknock were doing a leaflet drop at the Auburn Ave roundabout last week for new apartments in Castleknock. The days of people buying off the plans seem to be gone. Is supply exceeding demand at last?


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## techman1 (19 Apr 2005)

Well hopefully it might protect our remaining countryside from being blighted by one off houses. Nothing focusses the mind like money and if house prices start to fall the "farmer's sons and daughter's" won't be interested in building in the "far paddock".


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## Unregistered (19 Apr 2005)

Avoid the Burn in Real Estate  http://biz.yahoo.com/special/realest05_article1.html


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## Unregistered (19 Apr 2005)

If prices level off will investors still take a punt in the market, if rents won't match mortage costs (and it doesn't look likely that they will appreciate for a few years as all these 'units' come on stream over the next 12-18 months)
would it be advisable to still get involved?


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## HB1 (19 Apr 2005)

It could be still a wise decision to invest in houses/appartments provided these real estates are of low maintenance/cost to those who are renting/buying them.

The target is the Zero energy/A-rated house.Paying for energy and maintenance could be soon unaffordable for most  whilst they paying for the rent or mortgage as well.So taking one (un-! )predictable costfactor out of the mind of the potential occupier will certainly make a property most attractive.Pay the rent and nothing else.Minister Noel Dempsey has-as far as I understood foreign press releases of last week-something like that in mind.Small scale producers of alternative energy will get a fixed amount for each kilowatt of solar energy.So instead of wasting money on pebble dash and paint to cover the facade every couple of years one can generate an income on it.What of course will lower the maintenance cost and make the building atractive...About a dozen nations are going this way already.With the result that buildings equipped with solar technology are fetching the highest prices on a free market.I don't know of any zero energy building in the modern world that is standing empty.
heinbloed


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## Unregistered (20 Apr 2005)

The South African market has peaked.

[broken link removed]


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## Fly (20 Apr 2005)

The Irish Times reports that the rise in house prices was 1% for the first quarter.  I think investors will definitely have to think twice from now on.


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## Unregistered (20 Apr 2005)

Boston market starts to slide;


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## CCOVICH (20 Apr 2005)

Fly said:
			
		

> The Irish Times reports that the rise in house prices was 1% for the first quarter. I think investors will definitely have to think twice from now on.


 
That would really depend on whether they are buying for capital appreciation (really speculation I suppose) or for rental income.

The gist of the survey referred to (ptsb/ESRI) was that the rate of growth is slowing, not that the market has peaked.  

A few articles I have seen read recently where fund managers have been interviewed suggest that they see little value to be had in the Irish property market at the moment (whatever about residential property....)


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## Unregistered (21 Apr 2005)

American foreclosures are up 50% in one month, 1 million mortgage holders are late on payments last month, half went into foreclosure.

[broken link removed]


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## Unregistered (25 Apr 2005)

Professor of Economics at Yale,

[broken link removed]


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## Unregistered (27 Apr 2005)

HB1 said:
			
		

> It could be still a wise decision to invest in houses/appartments provided these real estates are of low maintenance/cost to those who are renting/buying them.
> 
> The target is the Zero energy/A-rated house.Paying for energy and maintenance could be soon unaffordable for most  whilst they paying for the rent or mortgage as well.So taking one (un-! )predictable costfactor out of the mind of the potential occupier will certainly make a property most attractive.Pay the rent and nothing else.Minister Noel Dempsey has-as far as I understood foreign press releases of last week-something like that in mind.Small scale producers of alternative energy will get a fixed amount for each kilowatt of solar energy.So instead of wasting money on pebble dash and paint to cover the facade every couple of years one can generate an income on it.What of course will lower the maintenance cost and make the building atractive...About a dozen nations are going this way already.With the result that buildings equipped with solar technology are fetching the highest prices on a free market.I don't know of any zero energy building in the modern world that is standing empty.
> heinbloed




I'm sorry, perhaps it's just me,  but all this talk of it being a good time to invest in property and stuff about solar energy and no zero energy building in the modern world etc. has just reinforced my belief that you have to be <enter_appropriate_word> to invest in Irish property today.


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## Unregistered (27 Apr 2005)

Totally agree with previous post, the yield is going to further decrease in my opinion as rents are still dropping on the whole. With a rise in interest rates coming late this year or early next year this will only add further pressure. There doesn't seem to be any let up in the amount of new units coming on stream especially in very rentable areas such as the city centre


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## z102 (27 Apr 2005)

A new draft has been published today . Due to new legislation an energy pass is required for all transactions on buildings from the first of January onwards. That will  take  many of them out of the market if they are not changed to be more competitive.And,as it is says in the draft paper,Ireland has a serious shortage of competent persons who can  issue such an energy pass.If home owners wait untill January to sell their property than there could be a waiting list of years.Together with falling prices in the home market this combination would mean more loss than there would have been .  See
[broken link removed]


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## Unregistered (28 Apr 2005)

UK prices seem to be rising slightly again:

[broken link removed]


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## Unregistered (28 Apr 2005)

[broken link removed]

Douglas Newman Good's calculation of 5% doesn't reflect Permanent TSB's 1% growth in house prices over the first quarter of 2005.  I guess when you take the huge market as a whole, you're always going to have variations but this a 500% difference in the end figure is bizarre!


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## Unregistered (28 Apr 2005)

I think the difference is that the DNG report refers to 5% growth in Q1 in Dublin, but the other report related to the whole country - read the reports first paragraph

However, I find it hard to believe that the Dublin market gre 5% in the quarter


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## Unregistered (28 Apr 2005)

Sorry, I was referring to the Dublin market.  Permanent TSB say that the dublin market rose by 1.5%, where as DNG say it rose by 5% for the first quarter.  It's still a huge difference.


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## Unregistered (29 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> I think the difference is that the DNG report refers to 5% growth in Q1 in Dublin, but the other report related to the whole country - read the reports first paragraph
> 
> However, I find it hard to believe that the Dublin market gre 5% in the quarter



I've been looking at buying since Christmas and prices have made a serious jump up in Dublin.


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## Poker Novice (29 Apr 2005)

Don't we also need to factor in to this discussion that since November last year 50,000 people from the new accession countries to the EU have come to Ireland ... they all need somewhere to sleep.


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## Unregistered (29 Apr 2005)

Property and its relative value to people's need to house themselves.

1 luxury houses on ailesbury - most margin for drops - what five or six million?

2 remote second holiday homes - cliff drops if first home mortgage in danger

3 shoebox high density in middle of no where - large drops

4 two bed apartments for more than a semi in same area - large drop potential

5 family homes (three / four bed, parking and gardens) WITHIN M50 in south dublin - get real , the jobs / income is in dublin - these are the stable ones

eg my humble estate in rathfarnham d16, three bed semi 250 spring 2002, 425 plus now 30-40 of that in 2005 alone - glad I own several of them.

It is time people stopped scare mongering, kopped on to some of the garbage property out there and concentrated on what is important - location and home quality.  In a downturn, people will sacrifice to hold on a decent home.


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## Unregistered (29 Apr 2005)

Sherry Fitzgerald agree with Douglas Newman Good's figures of around 5% for the first quarter in Dublin.  I'd say this is a more accurate figure than PTSB's 1.5% based on how I've being continually outbid for the last four months:

[broken link removed]


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## tonka (29 Apr 2005)

*some of Property market overvalued*



			
				Unregistered said:
			
		

> Property and its relative value to people's need to house themselves.
> 
> It is time people stopped scare mongering, kopped on to some of the garbage property out there and concentrated on what is important - location and home quality.  In a downturn, people will sacrifice to hold on a decent home.



Well observed. 

If there is a downturn it will of course be relative . Some sectors could tank badly while the quality trader upper property such as the 3 bed in Rathfarnam with funny oul things like schools nearby, inside the M50. will remain in short supply relative to overall demand .  

I would say from observation and anecdotal evidence  that most people I know with kids in Galway are moving out of town. The Irish 30-40 somethings who bought their PPR semi in town are heading to the countryside where the schools are not maxed out like they are in the city. 

The city is being left with students and singles and migrant labour ...from wherever that may come, Cavan even  .  Thats because the mature Rathfarnam - ish  areas in Galway are small....given how small Galway was 25 years ago compared to now .

Most of these mover outers are changing PPR not investing though .


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## Unregistered (29 Apr 2005)

Unregistered said:
			
		

> eg my humble estate in rathfarnham d16, three bed semi 250 spring 2002, 425 plus now 30-40 of that in 2005 alone - glad I own several of them.
> QUOTE]
> 
> I really like Rathfarnham. Close to the mountains and close to the city. However, I still think that prices there - like everywhere else - have risen to match historical low interest rates - i.e cheap money.
> ...


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## Unregistered (29 Apr 2005)

To see the impact that interest rates can have, consider an area like St.Albans outside London.

Just over a year ago every type of property was being "snapped up" as the estate agents like to say. This is a desirable residential area - lovely homes and a nice environment.

Interest rates rise to just a mere 4.75% and then reality arrives.

Prices fell by over 9% on average in the last 3 months alone of 2004 !!

We are enjoying the 2% interest rates at the moment but as someone said we've had the carrot now all that's left is the stick !


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## Unregistered (29 Apr 2005)

As somebody stated earlier though, the UK market is back on a small upward slope though, so maybe the increase in rates just caused a temporary adjustment to be made rather than a prolonged collapse in the market.


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