# McWilliams wrong on French Election



## Duke of Marmalade (8 May 2017)

Read this piece

Written only 70 days ago this typical piece by McWilliams has been exposed for the hubris it was.

Ok He was careful not actually to predict a Le Pen victory but we can be quite sure that if such had happened He would be very quick to tell us that He warned us.  See how in the piece He has twisted what was merely a similar rant about a potential Trump win into how prescient He was to predict that outcome. Similarly on Brexit.  In fact one is left with the impression, which I am sure He actually harbours, that He foresaw all of recent political developments just as He foresaw the housing bust 6 years ahead of everyone else. I do hope that no one followed His advice and printed those punts.

Anyway, good to see the good guys winning for a change and it is even sweeter that the Duke had a little punt at 10/1 against Macron exceeding 65% of the vote


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## Delboy (8 May 2017)

Who are the good guys?


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## Purple (8 May 2017)

Delboy said:


> Who are the good guys?


The ones who aren't racist xenophobes.


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## Duke of Marmalade (8 May 2017)

Delboy said:


> Who are the good guys?


I'm not sure what you are getting at here, _Delboy_.  I accept that the term "good guy" is entirely subjective, jayz millions thought Adolf was a good guy!  I thought from the context you would have spotted that the Duke counts Macron as a good guy.  Possibly you are interested in a more complete list of the Duke's good guys.  I am flattered.  _Purple's _suggestion certainly fits but if you want me to be more specific, whilst sticking to the political arena here is just a sample:

World:  O'Bama (now Macron)
Europe:  Angela (now Macron)
England:  Tony
Historic NI:  John Hume
Current NI:  Alas no one springs to mind
Historic RoI:  Garret the Good
Current RoI:  Michael McGrath of FF

On a separate note did you read how Angela tweeted her congrats and , God help us, Henda also tweeted congrats.  Are we heading towards World summits being hosted on Twitter?


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## Delboy (8 May 2017)

Well it good to see that the Great Crash of 2008 has been consigned to history and that international bankers are no longer considered bogeymen. And that being rabidly pro-European is now also back in fashion.
You are all very christian in your attitudes


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## Duke of Marmalade (8 May 2017)

Delboy said:


> Well it is good to see that the Great Crash of 2008 has been consigned to history


It certainly is and even I could not have predicted such a turn around.  I guess those "anti austerity burn the bondholders" brigade are really smarting that the end of the World has been averted.


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## Leo (8 May 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I guess those "anti austerity burn the bondholders" brigade are really smarting that the end of the World has been averted.



Unfortunately many of them continue in their delusion that we'd all be much better off if we had taken a different course.


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## Purple (8 May 2017)

Leo said:


> Unfortunately many of them continue in their delusion that we'd all be much better off if we had taken a different course.


It's very hard to change the opinions of those whose views are formed by ideology rather than actuality.


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## Dan Murray (8 May 2017)

Delboy said:


> Who are the good guys?





Purple said:


> The ones who aren't racist xenophobes.



Hey Purple,

Does it thus follow that non-racist xenophobes are the good guys??!!

On a serious note, what a great result in France. _Allez les Bleus!!_


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## Delboy (8 May 2017)

Yes indeed 'Allez les Bleus'!
Macron's Presidential policy document explicitly referenced Ireland and Apple and how he wants to tackle that issue. He also wants to reduce France's corporation tax rate.

Be careful what you cheer for!


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## Ceist Beag (8 May 2017)

I'm with Delboy on this. It is indeed a worrying sign of the times when the two biggest recent national elections were between two pairs of candidates, not one of which is easy to warm to. Absolutely I'm happy that LePen did not get in but I'm not cheering from the rooftops that there is a former investment banker in charge of France now. I'll reserve judgement on him for now but I wouldn't call it a great result!


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## Duke of Marmalade (8 May 2017)

Delboy said:


> Yes indeed 'Allez les Bleus'!
> Macron's Presidential policy document explicitly referenced Ireland and Apple and how he wants to tackle that issue.


And by one of those weird paradoxes he is absolutely at one with our own looney left on that.


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## cremeegg (8 May 2017)

At the risk of being told that as I am not an expert I have no right to comment I would like to dip my toe into the Apple Irish tax rates matter.

Anyone with better information please feel free to correct me, (I know you will anyway)

Fact (as I understand it): The EU court has issued a preliminary ruling that Irelands tax deal with Apple was a company specific deal for Apple and not available to other taxpayers, and as such breached EU law, not tax law but laws prohibiting public subsidies.

Opinion (my own): Its absolutely right that company specific tax deals are prohibited. The Apple letter of comfort looks like a company specific deal.

Many other EU states think that Ireland attracts foreign investment with sweetheart tax deals and they are unhappy about this. We are perfectly entitled under EU law to charge whatever tax rates we like, we are not entitled to then cooperate with foreign investors to help them pay less that the applicable tax rate.

Its not just the looney left that think we should enforce our own laws.


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## Duke of Marmalade (8 May 2017)

_cremeegg _you are not an expert on this and so have no right to comment.  Same goes for me but like you before me I am not going to let that stop me.

The Revenue issues lots of individual rulings to their customers (yes that's what they are called these days) setting out their interpretation of the tax regime in the specific circumstances.  One could argue that these are all special deals, but I am sure the Irish defence will be that the same interpretations would have been given to any one in the same situation.  In other words if Pear had asked for the same interpretation as Apple in identical circumstances they would have got it.

The fact is that the economic value on which the Commission wishes Ireland to extract €13bn tax was not earned in Ireland.  As has been pointed out before the gaps are with US tax legislation.


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## Purple (8 May 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> And by one of those weird paradoxes he is absolutely at one with our own looney left on that.


He doesn't care about the Irish economy. The looney left don't know anything about economics.


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## Purple (8 May 2017)

Tax harmonisation is an existential threat to the Irish economy and the Irish State in its present form.
There is no circumstance in which we should agree ti it.


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## Leo (8 May 2017)

Purple said:


> Tax harmonisation is an existential threat to the Irish economy and the Irish State in its present form.
> There is no circumstance in which we should agree ti it.



Exactly, there are very good reasons the US doesn't have tax harmonisation across all states.


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## Delboy (8 May 2017)

Purple said:


> Tax harmonisation is an existential threat to the Irish economy and the Irish State in its present form.
> There is no circumstance in which we should agree ti it.


Better tell that to the 'good guys' so....or is it ok as long as he's not a 'racist xenohobe'!
http://www.newstalk.com/Macron-to-push-for-tax-harmonisation-among-eurozone-states


> A senior policy adviser for French presidential candidate, Emmanuel Macron has told _Newstalk_ that if elected, Macron will push for a harmonised tax base for all eurozone member states.
> “If we share a currency and economic integration then we have to share rules ... Including harmonisation” Clement Beaune, Macron’s economic policy advisor told _Newstalk._


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## Dan Murray (8 May 2017)

Delboy said:


> Better tell that to the 'good guys' so....or is it ok as long as he's not a 'racist xenophobe'!



That's exactly it, Delboy - regular xenophobes are completely grand!


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## Purple (8 May 2017)

Delboy said:


> Better tell that to the 'good guys' so....or is it ok as long as he's not a 'racist xenohobe'!
> http://www.newstalk.com/Macron-to-push-for-tax-harmonisation-among-eurozone-states


He's acting in his countries national interest. We must do the same. The rules say that taxation is a matter for each country and that this can only change with unanimous agreement. In other words it can't change unless we change it. There is no circumstance in which we should agree to that. We have all the control in this matter. We need to remember that.


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## Duke of Marmalade (8 May 2017)

My main purpose in opening this thread was to have a good McWilliams bashing, instead it is a good guy like Macron who is getting the bashing.  Ah well, I suppose McW is one of our own, xenophobia is alive and well in AAM


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## Purple (8 May 2017)

McWilliams is a national institution. He is to now what U2 was to the mid 1980's. God bless him (unless such sentiment breaches the Blasphemy law).


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## Delboy (8 May 2017)

It's xenophobic to question Macron 

Purple, 
I'm afraid that without the UK to hold our hand and with a re-energised French leader who seems determined to go after corporation tax as part of his overall strongly pro-european agenda, we could be in big bother here. A re-elected Merkel and a nasty scrap over Brexit will see an emboldened EU push harder for much stronger integration, some of which could be very hard to swallow. But Paddy always takes his EU medicine, sometimes he just has to be told twice!

I do not expect the Irish govt to stand strong on tax for too long. They'll claim some sort of a pyrrhic victory from a debt write-down/renegotiation etc. But they will give in.

Thats my pessimistic take on the whole thing


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## Purple (8 May 2017)

Delboy said:


> Purple,
> I'm afraid that without the UK to hold our hand and with a re-energised French leader who seems determined to go after corporation tax as part of his overall strongly pro-european agenda, we could be in big bother here. A re-elected Merkel and a nasty scrap over Brexit will see an emboldened EU push harder for much stronger integration, some of which could be very hard to swallow. But Paddy always takes his EU medicine, sometimes he just has to be told twice!
> 
> I do not expect the Irish govt to stand strong on tax for too long. They'll claim some sort of a pyrrhic victory from a debt write-down/renegotiation etc. But they will give in.
> ...


Delboy, the Duke has hijacked your profile!
Either way, you both could be right


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## Purple (8 May 2017)

Delboy said:


> It's xenophobic to question Macron


No, but the lady who he ran against is a xenophobe and, in my opinion, a racist.


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## Dan Murray (8 May 2017)

I welcome Macron's victory - but it's far too soon to canonise him.

The truth is that it was a pretty motley crew that presented itself to the French electorate. Four main candidates - a nutter from the far left, a nutter from the far right, a Haughey-esque centre-right boyo and Macron. The most common sentiment that has been expressed to me by _mes amis francais_ is that Mr. Macron was the least objectionable of the four. As one pal put it - _nous avons évité le pire, le désastre certain mais avec quoi? _The frog-eaters (term of endearment) that I've been chatting to tell me that they are getting _bien fatigués_ of having to constantly vote against someone rather than for someone!!


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## Duke of Marmalade (8 May 2017)

Isn't this French system for electing a Presie somewhat flawed? Ok, De G recognised that first past the post would be Russian roulette but where did he get the idea of first two past the post into a second round?  The French nearly had a run off between a Mad Marxist and a Rabid Racist and however that worked out it certainly would not have been a democratic representation of France as a whole.

De G should simply have copied Paddy and had a process of elimination by STV in one round.  The extremes are very non transfer friendly.  This system would without any risk have delivered either Macron or Fillon depending, ironically, on whether it was the MM that was eliminated first or the RR.

But what about this for a supreme irony?  The French with their flawed system have put a very sane good guy in the Elysee.  We with our clever STV system have put a right looney tune in the Aras

The US system of second past the post wins is not the answer.


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## Firefly (9 May 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Read this piece
> 
> Written only 70 days ago this typical piece by McWilliams has been exposed for the hubris it was.
> 
> ...



LOL'd with all the Capital H's


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## Seagull (9 May 2017)

There were a fair number of French voters who said they were not voting for Macron, they were voting against Le Pen. He has nowhere near the level of support the results indicate. It's a repeat of the US elections, with a choice between Nope and Noper.


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## Duke of Marmalade (9 May 2017)

Seagull said:


> There were a fair number of French voters who said they were not voting for Macron, they were voting against Le Pen. He has nowhere near the level of support the results indicate. It's a repeat of the US elections, with a choice between Nope and Noper.


Yes that is in a sense true.  I suppose the "true" level of support is given by his first round score of 23% and even that can be seen as a rejection of RR, MM and Fillon the Fiddler.

But isn't there always some aspect of "keep the others out" in any vote.  Take the Duke.  I tend to vote FG (sorry fans) but most deffo not coz I hugely support them but coz they are the best of a bad lot.

Incidentally I am working on a thesis entitled "The Political Leanings of AAM Contributors", aka PLAAM.  I will start with the contributors to this thread and study some of their recent efforts.  The scale will be calibrated to the Duke having a perfect 0.  Pinko points will be positive and vice versa.  It will be mainly calibrated to economic rather than social views.  For example:  "Burn the Bondholders" would be good for 8 Pinko points whilst letting women murder their 39 week offspring would only rate 1.

Some examples who have already been subject to the Pinkometer are as follows:

Your average FF politician: +4
Your average FGer +2
Average shinner:  +8
Fintan O'Toole: +10
Kevin Myers: -6
Donald Trump: -8
Macron: 0


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## Firefly (9 May 2017)

That's great Duke. Busy at work today I see


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## Duke of Marmalade (9 May 2017)

Firefly said:


> That's great Duke. Busy at work today I see


Well I ain't like that other Duke who thinks retirement age should be 96, just think if that guy has been paying into his pension plan for 70 years, say, he will have a fairly comfortable retirement 

Results so far (in order of appearance)
Delboy  +6
Purple -4
Leo -2
Dan Murray *
Ceist Beag +3
cremeegg 0
Firefly 0

*  Pinkometer malfunctioned - detecting gambits and other malware designed to hide true rating

Appeals process:  If you wish to appeal your rating just make a post and indicate evidence of earlier post that the Pinkometer might have missed


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## Firefly (9 May 2017)

Too many people are getting too many things for nothing. Grants should be cut. Buses should be privatised and public sector workers should pay more for their pensions. How's my rating now? 

PS: only kidding about the grants


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## Duke of Marmalade (9 May 2017)

Firefly said:


> Too many people are getting too many things for nothing. Grants should be cut. Buses should be privatised and public sector workers should pay more for their pensions. How's my rating now?
> 
> PS: only kidding about the grants


_Firefly_,  that would have been a minimum -10 except the PS earned you one pinko point.  However, you have been reported to the stewards for such in and out running.


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## Purple (9 May 2017)

Thanks Duke, I'll discuss this with my therapist.
I presume my socially liberal views and general godlessness brought me back toward the center. 

One thing; As we write from left to right (1,2,3, etc) the minus numbers usually go on the left. Therefore I question your ranking system... other than that well done.

Have you thought about ranking our Fearless Leader or is that heresy?


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## Duke of Marmalade (9 May 2017)

Purple said:


> Thanks Duke, I'll discuss this with my therapist.
> I presume my socially liberal views and general godlessness brought me back toward the center.
> 
> One thing; As we write from left to right (1,2,3, etc) the minus numbers usually go on the left. Therefore I question your ranking system... other than that well done.
> ...


_Purple _I believe the ranking originated with the Chinese so your point on the order may be moot.  Yes I have recognised your pinko tendencies on the social front but as explained I do not give social views a very heavy weighting.

The _Boss _is out and out minimum -10, an example for everyone who wants to cut down on pinko points.  His view that PRSI should be financed at the individual level is good enuff for -5 points in its own right.


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## Purple (9 May 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> _Purple _I believe the ranking originated with the Chinese so your point on the order may be moot.


Yes, I suspected that may be the case.


Duke of Marmalade said:


> Yes I have recognised your pinko tendencies on the social front but as explained I do not give social views a very heavy weighting.


 Quite right too.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> The _Boss _is out and out minimum -10, an example for everyone who wants to cut down on pinko points.  His view that PRSI should be financed at the individual level is good enuff for -5 points in its own right.


 Yes, anyone who thinks we shouldn't get things we can't afford and that we shouldn't mortgage our children's future is obviously a rabid rightwing lunatic.


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## Delboy (9 May 2017)

I'm a positive 6 
Your machine is broken....up their with PPARS


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## Purple (10 May 2017)

Delboy said:


> I'm a positive 6
> Your machine is broken....up their with PPARS


Yep... pinko.


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## Ceist Beag (10 May 2017)

You obviously have me pretty well categorised Duke if you have me pretty much equal distance apart from Myers and O'Toole!


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## Purple (10 May 2017)

Ceist Beag said:


> You obviously have me pretty well categorised Duke if you have me pretty much equal distance apart from Myers and O'Toole!


Smug git...


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## Leper (11 May 2017)

McWilliams got it right those years ago.  He continues to make a few bob out of it. Good Luck to him.  I wonder is he predicting the same now?


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## Seagull (11 May 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> But isn't there always some aspect of "keep the others out" in any vote.  Take the Duke.  I tend to vote FG (sorry fans) but most deffo not coz I hugely support them but coz they are the best of a bad lot.



I suppose I'm similar in that my view on Irish political parties vary from "Bleh" to "Hell, No!". There is no party in this country that I actually want to vote for. When it comes to election time, I'm a negative voter. Start with the ones I dislike least, and work my way down the card selecting the ones I can tolerate in the hopes that transfers will keep out the "Hell, No!" grouping.

I suppose I tend not to post sufficiently in political threads to have registered on the pinkometer


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## Duke of Marmalade (11 May 2017)

Seagull said:


> I suppose I tend not to post sufficiently in political threads to have registered on the pinkometer


Apologies _Seagull_, you should of course have been measured.  But you are right the Pinkometer barely twitched as your recent posts were fed into it.  Looks like a perfect 0 but there was a warning message that due to paucity of data the rating may be unreliable.


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## Betsy Og (12 May 2017)

While Ml McGrath is a nice fella, I'm totally dis-illusioned with FF (as a former voter - a good few elections back) - the reason being is they appeared to have learned nothing and are willing to push the populism button if they can score points on FG. This water thing sickens my stomach. The hard left have nowhere to lead us - remember when they couldnt get enough of yer man in Greece, hows that working out I wonder......

I think Ireland will hold the line on tax harmonization, it needs unanimity, we've long warned we're using the veto and while UK was a supporter its by no means the only one. The Baltics for instance are low tax. Politicians making election promises arent much to be worried about tbh.

I'm a -7 btw


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## Duke of Marmalade (12 May 2017)

_Betsy the young one_ I couldn't agree more.  I put you through the pinkometer and got a -3 which starts to make me doubt whether the Duke merits a perfect 0.


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## Purple (18 May 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> _Betsy the young one_ I couldn't agree more.  I put you through the pinkometer and got a -3 which starts to make me doubt whether the Duke merits a perfect 0.


Do you gather breathalyser data for a living?


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