# ESRI says 90,000 homes needed in Greater Dublin by 2021



## Purple (6 Aug 2014)

90'000 houses required in Dublin and the commuter belt in the next few years. Will it happen?


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## Bronte (6 Aug 2014)

Purple said:


> 90'000 houses required in Dublin and the commuter belt in the next few years. Will it happen?


 
Is that a rhetorical question?  

I predict crazy rents going forward.  Expect more moan to Joe students mammies in about 3 weeks time, and a lot more sad stories on families unable to source accommodation.

I also predict that the rent allowance ceiling will be increased despite what the minister is saying.  Either that, or the Dublin authority will be allowed make 'exceptions' for families in homes where the rent is increased beyond the ceiling.


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## Brendan Burgess (6 Aug 2014)

I don't understand why they project over the next 10 years.

What is the shortage today? 

[broken link removed]

Brendan


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## Bronte (6 Aug 2014)

Brendan Burgess said:


> I don't understand why they project over the next 10 years.


 
Presumably they need to forecast so government can plan.


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## Brendan Burgess (6 Aug 2014)

Sorry,I wrote that badly.

The priority should be to quantify the shortage today. They don't seem to have done that.

Of course, they need to project as well. 

Brendan


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## Bronte (6 Aug 2014)

All of this begs the question, is the ESRI wrong, can we rely on what they write.  I mean shouldn't they have forecast 5 years ago the current situation so it could be dealt with.  Maybe they did?  If they didn't, then they are not to be relied upon, personally I don't have much time for info coming from state bodies.

How come there are not enough houses all of a sudden, where did all the people needing housing come from.


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## Brendan Burgess (6 Aug 2014)

Hi Bronte 

Quite a few people have been saying that there would be a big housing shortage in Dublin.  Not sure if the ESRI in particular forecast it. 

Brendan


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## dub_nerd (6 Aug 2014)

Bronte said:


> How come there are not enough houses all of a sudden, where did all the people needing housing come from.


It's not sudden, it's been known about for a long time. The rate of new house completions dropped off a cliff in 2008, whereas the number of new households being formed continued more or less as normal. The number of people renting in Dublin increased by a factor of several over the period since then, and the purchase price and rental increases we are seeing are the result of that.

We now have the crazy situation where we have a dire shortage of houses after the biggest property crash in history was caused by oversupply in the wrong places. The government has sat on its hands while developers claim they can't build houses at a profit and/or can't get credit from the banks. The same banks are rubbing their hands as the housing shortage lifts prices and allows them to shunt non-performing mortgages from defaulters on to new  buyers, meanwhile restricting the supply of credit to builders and repossessed houses to the market.

The government, for its part, is colluding in all this -- giving income and capital gains tax breaks to buyers, and hiking taxes on savings, in order to entice money into the market. One wonders what, if anything, they have been doing to address the real problem for the last two years. One thing they're _not_ doing is improving developers' margins by reducing the government's sizable take in taxes and levies from every housing unit built. Unbelievably, they seem to think that house price increases are a good thing, judging by explicit statements from the finance minister although he seems to have disowned his own words when pressed on it. What, also, have the planners been doing, who gave us all the bubble properties in the wrong places?

I'd say anyone who hoped to buy a reasonable living space in Dublin in the next  ten years can forget about it. When Dublin prices reached their nadir about two years ago, I reckoned prices needed to fall _another_ 50% to give reasonable comparisons to equivalent European cities. Not a snowball's chance in hell of that happening now.


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