# Fine Gael Leader change



## dockingtrade (23 Sep 2010)

FF 22% FG 30%. FG the "2nd largest" party in the state are 8 points ahead of the least popular govt in history, is it not obvious that theres something wrong with FG. I know its only a poll but i believe its failry accurate. I couldnt believe they didnt change the last time.


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## bren1916 (23 Sep 2010)

Perhaps it's because people have long memories and FG have no real policies/leaders (aka they're all the same)?
Other alternative....Joan Burton as Minister for Finance?? sweet This post will be deleted if not edited immediately!


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## dockingtrade (23 Sep 2010)

bren1916 said:


> Perhaps it's because people have long memories and FG have no real policies/leaders (aka they're all the same)?
> Other alternative....Joan Burton as Minister for Finance?? sweet This post will be deleted if not edited immediately!


 

true but if the govt is so unpopular you'd imagine that the main opposition should be surging


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## ninsaga (24 Sep 2010)

bren1916 said:


> Perhaps it's because people have long memories and FG have no real policies/leaders (aka they're all the same)?
> Other alternative....Joan Burton as Minister for Finance?? sweet This post will be deleted if not edited immediately!



...and there you have it.....despite the fact that FF are so unpopular, what is still giving them the edge is that there is no one else in any opposition who is better - except Eamon Gilmore it appears. But he is just one person.... flanked by Joan Burton (putting on my Jedward tone... 'OMG')

FG are just a sad effort.... the most unpopular government running the country in decades and FG cannot inspire any confidence in the electorate. Really is Enda Kenny the best that be produced.

If Eamonn Gilmore was running FG this circus would have changed a long time ago.

Enda is calling for an election on every given opportunity - but the fact is he is not strong enough to run the country.

FF could still pull off the next election - not because they are doing a great job of course - merely by the fact that the opposition is so bad.


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## TarfHead (24 Sep 2010)

ninsaga said:


> If Eamonn Gilmore was running FG this circus would have changed a long time ago.


 
While not a natural Labour supporter, I can make the same claim for myself about FF & FG, and the rest.

That said, I just can't see what others see in Eamon Gilmore. To me, his whole strategy is a repeat of the Father Ted '_Down with that sort of thing_' approach.

So, in the Labour Party, there's him and Joan Burton and Ruari Quinn and Pat Rabbitte. Whoever else is there hasn't made much of an impact on me.

To get a '_Spring Tide_' surge in popularity, Gilmore would have to bring in a second Labour Party seat in Dun Laoghaire; ditto Ruari Quinn in Dublin SE. I can't see either of those events occurring.

Back on topic, the divisions in FG and the personality of Enda Kenny are the reason that they haven't carved out a clear lead. If FF can hang on 'til 2012, they could yet confound the pundits and not get annihilated at the next General Election, principally cos the Opposition failed to present a credible alternative (and with a different leader).


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## Shawady (24 Sep 2010)

bren1916 said:


> Other alternative....Joan Burton as Minister for Finance?? sweet This post will be deleted if not edited immediately!


 
If Labour are biggest party after next election, I assume the minister for finance would be from FG as Labour would bag the top job.


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## TarfHead (24 Sep 2010)

Shawady said:


> If Labour are biggest party after next election ..


 
They won't be. They're not capable of translating an opinion poll result into gaining seats in constituencies where they either have no presence, or where the entire constituency organisation is loyal to the sitting TD.


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## Shawady (24 Sep 2010)

I would not expect Labour to translate their % share to seats as easy as the big 2 parties but they could still possibly be biggest party.
I would not be surprised if after next election the 3 parties had 40-50 seats each. There may not be much in it but Labour could finish ahead of FG.


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## bren1916 (24 Sep 2010)

Shawady said:


> If Labour are biggest party after next election, I assume the minister for finance would be from FG as Labour would bag the top job.


 
Doesn't alter the fact that they see fit to have JB as their spokesperson on Finance. The fact that they consider her to be their top party member for the job really makes me nervous!


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## censuspro (24 Sep 2010)

bren1916 said:


> Doesn't alter the fact that they see fit to have JB as their spokesperson on Finance. The fact that they consider her to be their top party member for the job really makes me nervous!



I'm not throwing my support behind JB when I say this but at least she is a qualified accountant and has some experience in finance.

I know this term gets thrown around a lot but it all comes back to local politics. In FG there was a motion of no confidence in Enda Kenny. IMO Richard Bruton appears to a much smarter more capable politician than Enda Kenny and yet the old crew of country politicians and the yahoo brigade backed him up and turned it into "Dublin v The Country" contest, even though the electorate clearly does not want him as the next Taoiseach!


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## TarfHead (24 Sep 2010)

censuspro said:


> I'm not throwing my support behind JB when I say this but at least she is a qualified accountant and has some experience in finance.


 
But accountancy and economics and treasury are all different professions, with a small degree of overlap. And should a teacher be the best candidte for the Department of Education, a soldier for the Department of Defence, etc. ?

Ruari Quinn was an effective Minister for Finance before Bertie and Charlie took over. Yet, does not have the Labour portfolio.

Is Joan Burton from the Labour wing of the party, or from the Democratic Left/Workers Party wing ?


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## dockingtrade (24 Sep 2010)

ninsaga said:


> ...
> 
> FF could still pull off the next election - not because they are doing a great job of course - merely by the fact that the opposition is so bad.


 
I think if Lenihan was leader, FF would get a huge bounce. 
Think about it of you go by the polls currently:
FF22 FG30. 
If Lenihan is FF leader and Enda stays FG leader.
FF have to bounce taking a big chunk from FG and maybe a small amount from Labor. People vote for parties based on their leaders.

FF might have to make up part of the next govt.

Its a poor indicament of FG.


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## NOAH (25 Sep 2010)

why concenentrate on individuals??  the government is run by the civil service and TD's are just water carrriers.  Its the ability to interpret and present what the people want to hear is important.  Why is Enda Kenny regarded as weak, he is not taosigh yet so cant be judged.  Remember BC was lauded as this that and the other and look what we got. Vote for a party/policy.... and not for individuals.

As for polls just ignore them, just watch as the election draws closer the gap wil narrow and narrow and FF will be showing as gaining ground. The press want FF in power end of

noah


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## Yorrick (25 Sep 2010)

If Joan Burton is the answer maybe the questions is 
"Are you out of your cotton picking mind ? "


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## dockingtrade (25 Sep 2010)

NOAH said:


> why concenentrate on individuals??
> noah


 
because the voters consider the leader of a party before they vote for teh candidate in that party


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## galleyslave (25 Sep 2010)

I think I'd have to emigrate if I was forced to listen to Joan Burtons soporific whiney voice were she in govt. *shudder* And thats even before we begin to discuss her leftie views...


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## Complainer (25 Sep 2010)

dockingtrade said:


> true but if the govt is so unpopular you'd imagine that the main opposition should be surging



The main opposition is surging.



Yorrick said:


> If Joan Burton is the answer maybe the questions is
> "Are you out of your cotton picking mind ? "



Or maybe the question is "Which is the only party Finance spokesperson that saw the dangers off the blanket bank guarantee two years ago, BEFORE the guarantee was put in place?


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## dockingtrade (25 Sep 2010)

Complainer said:


> The main opposition is surging.


just pointing out the traditional main opposition party is not taking advantage.


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## Complainer (25 Sep 2010)

dockingtrade said:


> just pointing out the traditional main opposition party is not taking advantage



Indeed, I was just pointing out that the traditional main opposition party is not the main opposition party any more. We may at last be maturing as a country away from decades of civil war politics to a traditional left/right alignment. Though one poll does not make a summer - we'll see tonight what tomorrow's SBP poll says.


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## Shawady (27 Sep 2010)

Most likely outcome in next election is FG biggest party, Labour next and FF third.
It would be interesting if Labour had enough seats to form coalition with FF with Labour as main party i.e they have a choice to go in with FG as smaller party or go in with FF and have a Labour Taoiseach for first time ever.

It might sound like political suicide but if Enda Kenny is that unpopular and a Lab/ FF could still leave Brian Lenihan as MOF it might be a runner.


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## Sunny (27 Sep 2010)

Shawady said:


> Most likely outcome in next election is FG biggest party, Labour next and FF third.
> It would be interesting if Labour had enough seats to form coalition with FF with Labour as main party i.e they have a choice to go in with FG as smaller party or go in with FF and have a Labour Taoiseach for first time ever.
> 
> It might sound like political suicide but if Enda Kenny is that unpopular and a Lab/ FF could still leave Brian Lenihan as MOF it might be a runner.


 
Labour won't get the votes to be the biggest second party. Very easy to vote for labour in a poll. Different story when it comes to putting that vote into a ballot box.


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## Shawady (27 Sep 2010)

People keep saying this Sunny, but it is obvious there are a large number of voters that do not want to vote for FF or FG. They have to vote for someone.
Their % of the vote may not directly translate into seats but they should easily do better than the 33 seats they got in 1992 in the Spring Tide.


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## Sunny (27 Sep 2010)

Shawady said:


> People keep saying this Sunny, but it is obvious there are a large number of voters that do not want to vote for FF or FG. They have to vote for someone.
> Their % of the vote may not directly translate into seats but they should easily do better than the 33 seats they got in 1992 in the Spring Tide.


 
You could be right but I am sceptical. I am not sure how strong Labour will be once the FF and FG election machines start picking apart their policies which are weak in a number of areas (some good ones though). Even today listening to Joan Burton, she is heavy on soundbites, low on detail.


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## Complainer (27 Sep 2010)

Sunny said:


> Labour won't get the votes to be the biggest second party. Very easy to vote for labour in a poll. Different story when it comes to putting that vote into a ballot box.


They said the same thing in the UK before Blair came to power.


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## Sunny (27 Sep 2010)

Complainer said:


> They said the same thing in the UK before Blair came to power.


 
True but Labour in Britain always had a very strong traditional base. Labour here doesn't have that. We are possibly seeing a shift in party politics here but I am sceptical that poll results will transfer into actual votes. FF will do better than the polls suggest despite what people think. 

To be honest, personally I have no idea who I would vote for if an election was called tomorrow.


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## Caveat (27 Sep 2010)

Complainer said:


> They said the same thing in the UK before Blair came to power.


 
...but it took Blair and co to become "New Labour" (i.e. Tory Lite) to get elected.


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## Mpsox (27 Sep 2010)

Shawady said:


> it is obvious there are a large number of voters that do not want to vote for FF or FG. They have to vote for someone.


 
Actually they don't. If people are disillusioned with the main parties and cannot find an alternative to vote for, they may stay at home, hence the party that has the infrastructure to get their vote out, may do better then the polls currently indicate


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## Sunny (27 Sep 2010)

Mpsox said:


> Actually they don't. If people are disillusioned with the main parties and cannot find an alternative to vote for, they may stay at home, hence the party that has the infrastructure to get their vote out, may do better then the polls currently indicate


 
Or vote for independents which is a real worry.


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## MeathCommute (27 Sep 2010)

Eamonn Gilmore is a lunatic Marxist who will drive all of the money out of Ireland. His policies are not that much different from Sinn Fein. The public sector will dance for joy when he gets in. He won't cross any unions. He'll want to tax the rich to punish them. However, he'll only be taxing entrepreneurs and people who create employment in this country. He'll create a run on the banks. I can't see the bondholders being too happy with him either. Hope and pray that FG get a majority....


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## DerKaiser (27 Sep 2010)

MeathCommute said:


> Eamonn Gilmore is a lunatic Marxist who will drive all of the money out of Ireland. His policies are not that much different from Sinn Fein. The public sector will dance for joy when he gets in. He won't cross any unions. He'll want to tax the rich to punish them. However, he'll only be taxing entrepreneurs and people who create employment in this country. He'll create a run on the banks. I can't see the bondholders being too happy with him either. Hope and pray that FG get a majority....


 
I wouldn't worry, you'll find that Gilmore or Kenny won't really have options.  When they get in the first thing you'll hear is that there is no pot of gold and they'll make the same cuts as FF would have


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## oldtimer (27 Sep 2010)

DerKaiser said:


> I wouldn't worry, you'll find that Gilmore or Kenny won't really have options. When they get in the first thing you'll hear is that there is no pot of gold and they'll make the same cuts as FF would have


Totally agree.


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## Duke of Marmalade (27 Sep 2010)

Scary thing is that adding up the various combinations Paddy thinks there is a 15% chance of the IRA being in power.  Maybe that goes some way to explaining bond yields.


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## Sunny (28 Sep 2010)

Not labours biggest fan but brilliant move by Gilmore over the pairings. Made kenny look like a twat! Afraid that could be the end of enda!


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Sep 2010)

Sunny said:


> Not labours biggest fan but brilliant move by Gilmore over the pairings. Made kenny look like a twat! Afraid that could be the end of enda!


Maybe a bit too clever. Clearly Gilmore does not want a GE just now - that would leave FG in pole position. He hopes that by waiting FF will make a small recovery at FG's expense and that his rise will continue. That would put him as firm king maker and almost certainly king.

He is making one huge assumption though. If I was Enda I would start making noises that a coalition between the two business friendly parties (FG/FF) should not be ruled out in this our hour of emergency. After all FF as third party is unprecedented.  The peculiar FG/Lab coalition was a marriage of convenience to give some possibility of ousting the dominant party.  The paradigm has changed, changed utterly.  

That would sure take the wind out of the commies' sails.


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## csirl (28 Sep 2010)

The upcoming 3 by-elections will have a huge impact. Government has zero chance of winning the court challenge due within the next few days, so unless there is a deal done involving cross party consensus on a date, these by-elections will take place within the next month or so. With jittery back benchers and independents looking at the door, a general election could be closer than we all think.

If FG want to be the commanding party in government, then they need to dump Enda now. They also need to run as a party seeking to rule alone - they need to ditch this coalition with Labour stuff. May need to go into coalition, but if I were them, I wouldnt be saying it outright as Labour are not necessarily attractive to all floating voters. 

Without Enda, FG could conceivably come close to putting together a Government with the support of independents and Greens and at the very least they would be the dominant partners in a coalition with Labour.

With Enda, the best they can hope for is being roughly equal partners with Labour and there is the realistic possibility that they will be back in opposition to a Labour/FF coalition.


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## Shawady (28 Sep 2010)

Sunny said:


> Not labours biggest fan but brilliant move by Gilmore over the pairings. Made kenny look like a twat! Afraid that could be the end of enda!


 
I aggree. Whatever people think of Labour they have been much more credible and smarter than FG. Even in the Garglegate episode, Simon Coveny was forced to back down and just looked silly. Labour meanwhile lashed the government for their record over the last 10 years and didn't look petty like FG.


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## Shawady (28 Sep 2010)

csirl said:


> With Enda, the best they can hope for is being roughly equal partners with Labour and there is the realistic possibility that they will be back in opposition to a Labour/FF coalition.


 
This is a long shot but still probable. If Labour had more seats than FF it would be tempting to be the senior party in government. They could justify it on the basis that Enda Kenny is not seen as a credible leader by the majority of people. Brian Lenihan could be kept on as MOF, which again might go down well as a lot of people think he is one of our more credible politicians.

I agree with previous posters that the cuts in fortcoming budgets will happen regardless of who is in government as that is what the EU expect of us.


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## dockingtrade (29 Sep 2010)

taking into account tomorrows poll ... with Enda as leader theres a chance FG will not form part of the next govt. Why not remove that chance and change the leader​


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## Shawady (30 Sep 2010)

Amazing to think that FG are at the same level as FF in the most recent poll.


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## z107 (30 Sep 2010)

> Amazing to think that FG are at the same level as FF in the most recent poll.


Well they are practically both the same. (Dire)


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## Complainer (30 Sep 2010)

Shawady said:


> Amazing to think that FG are at the same level as FF in the most recent poll.


Indeed - Kenny is definitely holding them back. Though I'm not sure that any of the prospective alternatives would be a whole lot better. Watch them implode over the coming months in a series of heaves and recriminations. 

It really is starting to look like a Labour-led Government next time round, either with FG as the junior partner, or possibly with the few Greens/Independents/Joe Higgins on side. It would be very difficult for many in FG to get the heads round being the junior partner. Shatter was almost apoplectic on the radio over the weekend.


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## Shawady (30 Sep 2010)

Complainer said:


> It really is starting to look like a Labour-led Government next time round, either with FG as the junior partner, or possibly with the few Greens/Independents/Joe Higgins on side.


 
What about a Labour-led government with FF as junior partner?


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## sunrock (30 Sep 2010)

The lib dems in the U.K. were polled to get a huge vote. but on the big day they only got their normal no of MPs.
I suspect the same here with labour.Labour will do as well as their best showing in the last 30 years plus maybe 4 or 5 extra.
The arithmetic will dictate the future makeup of the coalition....as our politicians love the perks,ministries of being in power.
I would agree that labour are the kingmakers, no matter what vote they get. If they have more seats than their coalition partners the Gilmore is taoiseach...if not then its not Gilmore.


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## Sunny (30 Sep 2010)

sunrock said:


> The lib dems in the U.K. were polled to get a huge vote. but on the big day they only got their normal no of MPs.
> I suspect the same here with labour.Labour will do as well as their best showing in the last 30 years plus maybe 4 or 5 extra.
> The arithmetic will dictate the future makeup of the coalition....as our politicians love the perks,ministries of being in power.
> I would agree that labour are the kingmakers, no matter what vote they get. If they have more seats than their coalition partners the Gilmore is taoiseach...if not then its not Gilmore.


 
Hard to compare because of the different systems. If the UK had proportional representation instead of first past the post, the Lib Dems would have done a lot better in terms of seats. The system over there protects the two party system. I agree that transferring poll votes into actual votes will be a challenge for Labour. Speaking personally, Labour is very weak in my area.


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## shnaek (30 Sep 2010)

Fine Gael would be better off staying out of the next government. They are going to be as unpopular as the current government, as our economic difficulties are far from over. If FG stayed out they could win big next time around.


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## dereko1969 (30 Sep 2010)

I would be a Labour supporter but I just can't see them getting 50 seats. In the last election they had enough first round votes in Dublin South to get a seat but because they ran 2 candidates the vote split and didn't come back sufficiently to win the seat. 
I fear their new candidates (many of whom would never have expected to be in with a chance of a seat) will lack the discipline to share constituencies with party colleagues. They'll also be hit by the retirement of Liz McManus and Mary Upton both of whom would have been guaranteed seats.


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## csirl (30 Sep 2010)

dereko1969 said:


> I would be a Labour supporter but I just can't see them getting 50 seats. In the last election they had enough first round votes in Dublin South to get a seat but because they ran 2 candidates the vote split and didn't come back sufficiently to win the seat.
> I fear their new candidates (many of whom would never have expected to be in with a chance of a seat) will lack the discipline to share constituencies with party colleagues. They'll also be hit by the retirement of Liz McManus and Mary Upton both of whom would have been guaranteed seats.


 
Agree. 

The media consistantly says that, based on poll figures, Labour will win at least 1 seat in each Dublin constituency. However, due to a combination of factors including profile of labour candidate(s), other parties candidates, local organisation, local issues etc., I can safely say that Labour will not win any seats in my constituency. The type of overall support polls that newspapers conduct do not take into account the particular circumstances in each constituency. I would love to see a poll done on a constituency by constituency basis based on who will vote for the probable candidates.


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## Complainer (30 Sep 2010)

Shawady said:


> What about a Labour-led government with FF as junior partner?


How many times does Gilmore have to unequivocally rule this out before people will listen?


csirl said:


> The media consistantly says that, based on poll figures, Labour will win at least 1 seat in each Dublin constituency. However, due to a combination of factors including profile of labour candidate(s), other parties candidates, local organisation, local issues etc., I can safely say that Labour will not win any seats in my constituency.


Which constituency?


csirl said:


> The type of overall support polls that newspapers conduct do not take into account the particular circumstances in each constituency. I would love to see a poll done on a constituency by constituency basis based on who will vote for the probable candidates.


The costs of local polling is generally prohibitive. You'd have to go to at least 400 people per constituency, and the national polls are generally based on 1000 people.


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## shnaek (30 Sep 2010)

Complainer said:


> How many times does Gilmore have to unequivocally rule this out before people will listen?


I guess they are just going on past experience. Unfair to Gilmore - but people don't tend to believe politicians these days, and will look at the past for guidance.


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## DerKaiser (30 Sep 2010)

csirl said:


> I would love to see a poll done on a constituency by constituency basis based on who will vote for the probable candidates.


Definitely would be of a lot more use.

I think the following was used very accurately in UK exit polls:

Take the national swings in support since the last election and see how it would have changed the results if applied to individual constituencies in the last election.

Obviously it works better in the UK's first past the post, but it's infintely better than trying to apply a national percentage to 166 seats.


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## Complainer (30 Sep 2010)

shnaek said:


> I guess they are just going on past experience. Unfair to Gilmore - but people don't tend to believe politicians these days, and will look at the past for guidance.


I'm guessing that you're referring to 1992 here. To the best of my knowledge, Spring never ruled out coalition with FF before the election (but I'm open to correction here from anyone with better (bitter?) memories).


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## csirl (30 Sep 2010)

> Which constituency?


 
Dublin North Central. 

Labour are starting from a very low base - 7% in last election. They need to more than double their vote to have any chance. As its a 3 seater, the quota is 25%+1. Traditionally the local party mechanism has been weak and there is no sign of any change. The candidate chosen is running in his first ever general election and is not a local - parachuted in from Dublin Central. Some more local candidates effectively ruled themselves out by mis-reading the electorate and getting on the wrong side of an important local issue in recent years causing some turmoil in the local party - so its not surprising they've brought in an outsider. 

I expect the 3 incumbant TDs to be returned, but with FF being in 3rd place rather than 2nd.


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## Purple (30 Sep 2010)

The Labour Party under Dick Spring was a different animal to what it is today. Remember that after Spring left there was a reverse take-over by the Workers Party and they hate Fianna Fail going right back to the time when they called themselves “the republican party” and The Workers Party were Sinn Fein. Gilmore et al have come a long way since politically but I’m sure the old grudges are still there somewhere.


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## csirl (30 Sep 2010)

P.S. maybe if someone set up an election predictions thread and AAM posters in each constituency, who'd be best able to read the situation locally, could post their predictions for the next GE. Add up all the prediction results and it may give us quite an accurate preview of the next Dail.


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## TarfHead (30 Sep 2010)

csirl said:


> The candidate chosen is running in his first ever general election and is not a local


 
I assume you're not talking about Derek McDowell ? Who then ? Cllr. Aodhan O'Riordan (sp?) ?

I agree with your analysis. Finian McGrath will draw votes from the left of the political divide, as well as transfers from all other candidates. LAB's chance of getting a seat in DubNC are slim.

I'm in DubNE and can see little prospect of Tommy Broughan bringing in a second candidate (in a 3-seater). Killian Forde could do well, but the SF history can be used against him. Also, his power base is Donaghmede, which overlaps with Broughan.

So that's 2 Dublin constituencies, 6 seats and LAB should get one, which means that they'll need to over-achieve in other constituencies.

Take the 2 Donegal constituencies, NE & SW. LAB, traditionally, have no presence in the county and would be doing very well to get one seat, out of the 6 available.

So, 4 constituencies, 12 seats, 2 TDs. This is why I cannot see LAB translating a poll result into an electoral surge.


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## Sunny (30 Sep 2010)

I am in Dublin North and they may get one through Brendan Ryan but even then I would actually back Clare Daly of the Socialist Party to take some of the vote away from him. No chance of a second seat.


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## dereko1969 (30 Sep 2010)

Well in Dublin South Central there are 2 Labour seats potentially, same in Dun Laoghaire, also a possibility in Dublin South West.

This site is really useful for all the details including the all-important transfers from the last election

http://electionsireland.org/results/general/30dail.cfm


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## TarfHead (30 Sep 2010)

dereko1969 said:


> Well in Dublin South Central there are 2 Labour seats potentially, same in Dun Laoghaire ..


 
In DL you have Gilmore (LAB), Hanafin (FF), Andrews (FF), Cuffe (GP) & Barrett (FG). Richard Boyd Barrett went close the last time and Eugene Regan has kept his profile high from the Senate.

Has this now gone to 4 seats ? I assume Gilmore and Hanafin will be OK, with FG picking up the third seat, leaving the transfers deciding the 4th seat. If Gilmore can't deliver a second seat in his own constituency, it's a bad reflection on him and his constituency organisation. Sure Bertie managed to get even Cyprian Brady into the Dail on his coat tails  !


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## csirl (30 Sep 2010)

TarfHead said:


> I assume you're not talking about Derek McDowell ? Who then ? Cllr. Aodhan O'Riordan (sp?) ?
> 
> .


 
Yes - its O'Riordan.


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## TarfHead (30 Sep 2010)

He may be trailing a parachute behind him, but he could be a strong candidate. He talks a good game. And, if there's going to be a FG/LAB landslide, independents will have no leverage in the next Dail, thus Finian McGrath's ability to deliver is diminished.


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## csirl (30 Sep 2010)

TarfHead said:


> I'm in DubNE and can see little prospect of Tommy Broughan bringing in a second candidate (in a 3-seater). Killian Forde could do well, but the SF history can be used against him. Also, his power base is Donaghmede, which overlaps with Broughan.


 
Will Broughan even get elected? DNE was a very close race last time with 5 candidates with similar 1st preferences seeking only 3 seats. 

Broughan has lost the bulk of his support in the Coolock area due to his opposition to the Northside redevelopment project. Labour objections delayed this project and because of the collapse in the economy it wont be done now. Cost the area loads of jobs as well as the benefits of redevelopment. While this project is in the DNE area, it would also have served a lot of the DNC area. The Labour opposition to the plan is the significant local issue I referred to in my earlier post and has effectively made some of their potential candidates in DNC unelectable. I would have thought that this issue would have an even more serious effect on DNE candidates, especially Broughan, given that the project was in their constituency.


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## TarfHead (30 Sep 2010)

csirl said:


> Will Broughan even get elected? DNE was a very close race last time with 5 candidates with similar 1st preferences seeking only 3 seats.


 
True. Maybe he only made it last time based on his promise to, if in Government, deliver the LUAS and a third-level institution to the constituency . I kid you not  !

FF had enough votes last time for 2 seats, yet Brady fell just short with Flanagan getting in on Sweeny's transfers. Flanagan ran a very energetic campaign in 2007, hard to know if he can repeat the trick this time. I remember seeing him, on the morning of the election, on the causeway road to the Bull Island, waving at the City bound traffic. Before that I wouldn't have rated his chances; after that, it wasn't a surprise that he made it.

FF could hold their seat. Brady is in the Senate, so he's still keen. Woods is a pensioner, several times over , so is unlikely to go again.

No PD in the field, Healy (GP) was wiped out at the local elections, so there's space there for a non-FF candidate who runs a clever campaign. Not SF though, can't see Larry O'Toole drawing much support in the leafier parts of Sutton and Howth.


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## dereko1969 (30 Sep 2010)

There's a likely Labour seat in Carlow-Kilkenny I would have thought.

It will be interesting if they do put up a second candidate in Waterford, Limerick East, Wexford as difficult to see a second winning candidate in those constituencies. Willie Penrose should be able to bring a second candidate home.

Kerry North and South there's a chance but not much of a one.


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## Complainer (30 Sep 2010)

TarfHead said:


> True. Maybe he only made it last time based on his promise to, if in Government, deliver the LUAS and a third-level institution to the constituency . I kid you not  !


You might like to revisit my query on this claim again - see http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=1051941&postcount=64

Is this one of those things that if you repeat it often enough, people will believe it?


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## TarfHead (30 Sep 2010)

Complainer said:


> You might like to revisit my query on this claim again - see http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=1051941&postcount=64
> 
> Is this one of those things that if you repeat it often enough, people will believe it?



I repeat it because I believe it to be true based on my own recollection of a piece of campaign material that lingered in my hand for a short time in between it's journey from my letter box to the green bin.

If obtaining a scanned image of same document is the provenance you require to back up this recollection, and I am unable to produce same, then I must have made it up to throw mud at Deputy Broughan, as part of some nefarious FF/FG/SF/MRLP campaign ? Yeah ? That makes sense  ? Cos in the Come On Down Super Giveaway Campaign of 2007, it is implausible that the Labour Party would have made such extravagant campaign promises ?

That site you linked to contains one piece of campaign documentation from 2007. So, that means he only ever printed one item ?

Any way, [/rant] . Back on message. LAB unlikely to gain a seat in DubNE at the next election and, based on what csirl posted, maybe at risk of not even holding on to what they have ?


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## dockingtrade (30 Sep 2010)

Listening to James Reilly over the last few days, he comes across as another liabililty to FG


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## Complainer (30 Sep 2010)

TarfHead said:


> I repeat it because I believe it to be true based on my own recollection of a piece of campaign material that lingered in my hand for a short time in between it's journey from my letter box to the green bin.
> 
> If obtaining a scanned image of same document is the provenance you require to back up this recollection, and I am unable to produce same, then I must have made it up to throw mud at Deputy Broughan, as part of some nefarious FF/FG/SF/MRLP campaign ? Yeah ? That makes sense  ? Cos in the Come On Down Super Giveaway Campaign of 2007, it is implausible that the Labour Party would have made such extravagant campaign promises ?
> 
> That site you linked to contains one piece of campaign documentation from 2007. So, that means he only ever printed one item ?


The reason why I suspect this is untrue is because;

a) it is completely implausable
b) I can't find any sign or record of this claim in the press, or from the avid political followers on politics.ie (who generally open a thread every time a TD breaks wind.

Perhaps it didn't linger long enough in your hand.


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## Shawady (1 Oct 2010)

Complainer said:


> How many times does Gilmore have to unequivocally rule this out before people will listen?


 
I have heard him rule it out but I have not heard if he specifically said he would rule it out even if Labour were the senior party. Maybe it would make no difference but I imagine there would be some temptation to be the senior partner in governement for the first time.


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## Complainer (1 Oct 2010)

Shawady said:


> I have heard him rule it out but I have not heard if he specifically said he would rule it out even if Labour were the senior party. Maybe it would make no difference but I imagine there would be some temptation to be the senior partner in governement for the first time.


Listen to his interview from Weds this week, about 7:40 into the interview;

[broken link removed]

"[Deep sigh] The Labour Party position is crystal clear. We are not going into Govt with Fianna Fail after the next general election. We're not going to put Fianna Fail back into Govt in any shape or form after the next general election. And incidentally, the Labour Party is the only party that has categorically ruled out going into Govt with Fianna Fail after the next election".

Is there any ambiguity there? Why don't you ask FG about whether THEY will go into coalition with FF when Labour comes out as the largest party?


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## TarfHead (1 Oct 2010)

Complainer said:


> ..when Labour comes out as the largest party?


 
Would you care to identify the constituencies you believe where LAB will gain seats ? And, at whose expense ?


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## Complainer (1 Oct 2010)

TarfHead said:


> Would you care to identify the constituencies you believe where LAB will gain seats ? And, at whose expense ?


I wouldn't claim to have a national view, but they will certainly gain one, possibly two, and if the wind is behind them, maybe three in Dublin South. Eamonn Ryan is a gonner, the Seamus Brennan/George Lee seat is a gonner, and Kitt is at risk.


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## TarfHead (1 Oct 2010)

Complainer said:


> I wouldn't claim to have a national view, but they will certainly gain one, possibly two, and if the wind is behind them, maybe three in Dublin South. Eamonn Ryan is a gonner, the Seamus Brennan/George Lee seat is a gonner, and Kitt is at risk.


 
That's the piece I need explained to me - how can they gain sufficient seats to be the largest party in the next Dail  ? And where will those seats be gained ?

The most obvious way is by gaining the seats lost by FF, but FG will be targetting those seats too and may have more established constituency organisations to support a second candidate.

And if Gilmore can't make that breakthrough, his position as party leader must be called into question.


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## Complainer (1 Oct 2010)

TarfHead said:


> That's the piece I need explained to me - how can they gain sufficient seats to be the largest party in the next Dail  ? And where will those seats be gained ?


See http://politicalreform.ie/2010/09/2...it-might-mean-in-constituency-terms/#more-997 for one analysis, based on the TV3 poll. 



TarfHead said:


> And if Gilmore can't make that breakthrough, his position as party leader must be called into question.


Right so, he's led the party from 12% to 45%, so we should DEFINITELY start questioning his leadership ?????


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## TarfHead (1 Oct 2010)

I can't access that link from work.

And, yes, if he, or anyone, can't transform a poll rating of 35% into an electoral breakthrough, '_don't let the door hit you on the backside on your way out_'.


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## DerKaiser (1 Oct 2010)

Complainer said:


> See http://politicalreform.ie/2010/09/2...it-might-mean-in-constituency-terms/#more-997 for one analysis, based on the TV3 poll.


 
It's a good starting point for an analysis, but seeing labour on 57 seats (and I'll hold my hand up if proven wrong) indicates that we need a deeper analysis.

For me the starting point would be to go through the first preferences of each party in each constutuency from the last election. 

You'd then need to apply a likely constituency specific swing.

You then need a rule of thumb on transfers.

I've done a detailed analysis (out of statistical interest) on Carlow/Kilkenny before.

In 2007 labour and FG won almost 40% of the vote and won one seat. FF and the greens won 55% and that gained them 4 seats!

If that's not crazy enough, in 2002 the constituency had only 4 seats on offer (due to having the sitting Ceann Comhairle) and FF took 3 of those 4 seats with 50% of the vote. 





This is an extreme situation, but it does highlight a few things:

The parochial nature of politics (the FF canndidates were spread perfectly geographically whilst transfers not alone did not occur between FG and Labour, they didn't transfer very well internally between FG or Labour candidates in different parts of the constituency)
The profile of the candidates (maybe 35% of people want to vote for labour but 50% of these have never voted labour before, when they are presented with an unknown candidate they are less likely to vote for them)
Vote management (In a 4 seater the maximum vote that will be counted is 80%, but could be as low as 70% due to lost transfers. FF know they will get their own vote and nothing else. If they have two equally matched candidates, they only need 30% of the vote to get two seats. They have form at getting this right. Labour do not have that kind of vote management experience).
So looking at that Millward-Browne analysis in respect of Carlow-KK,
1) I find it dubious that FF % falls from 45 to 26 whilst labout goes from 13% to 35% even based on the swing since last election
2) Even if FF were to fall to 26% they'd probably pick up 2 seats due to vote management and candidate profile

My overall prediction for what it's worth is:

FG: 60
FF: 50
Lab: 40


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## dereko1969 (1 Oct 2010)

well that link shows questionable analysis as it shows a virtual elimination of "others" whereas in fact I think the next election will see a load of hospital type TDs.

It also shows 3 Labour TDs in Dublin South which is highly unlikely. Also as I've stated before vote management is not ingrained in Labour whereas FF and FG have years of experience of the black arts.

Labour would be better off running a maximum of 2 candidates unless there are specific geographical reasons for running a third. Labours maximum vote transfer is about 60% from party colleagues from recent local elections and that was in very rare cases, I would think from a quick look at the site i referred to above that the average would be about 40% which is nowhere near enough to 50 seats.


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## dereko1969 (1 Oct 2010)

DerKaiser said:


> It's a good starting point for an analysis, but seeing labour on 57 seats (and I'll hold my hand up if proven wrong) indicates that we need a deeper analysis.
> 
> For me the starting point would be to go through the first preferences of each party in each constutuency from the last election.
> 
> ...


 
In the last local elections from 2009 FF had indeed fallen to 26% (ish) in both constituencies, Labour had 18% given the surge in Labour votes since then, whilst 35% is not going to happen they could overtake FF. Obviously vote management becomes key but you would presume that it would end up 2FG/2FF/1Lab but it wouldn't be unbelievable that the second FF would be under pressure from Labour.


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