# NAMA, Predicting the Crash and Conventional Wisdom



## canicemcavoy (14 Oct 2009)

There seems to be a large overlap between those who never foresaw the property bubble crash and indeed denied there ever was such a bubble, and those who are now clamouring for NAMA as the "only" solution. Apart from Brian Lucey, are there any exceptions?


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## z109 (14 Oct 2009)

There also seems to be a large overlap between "nobody saw it coming" and "we all knew it was unsustainable"...

I can tell you who didn't see it coming and who said it was sustainable:
- anyone in the Dail
- most academic economists (including Mr. Lucey)
- all bank economists

Some change their tunes quicker than others, that's fine, when the facts change and all that. 

Some revise their history, that's not fine, either it was lies then or it is lies now.

The exceptions: 
Morgan Kelly
David McWilliams
erm...
thepropertypin? (mostly)
probably some of the rank and file in the Green Party? (But that would more be in terms of a millenial view of capitalism)
Perhaps Dermot Desmond?

It's a depressingly short list. Mostly because there isn't enough ideological 'width' on it to credibly hammer out a new model. Of course, some of it is survivors bias, so if you're looking for credibility now, those who changed their tunes early (like before the financial crisis in Ireland - anyone before the middle of last year?) have more than most. They at least have shown some ability to cope with other than an ever-continuing trend...


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## tiger (14 Oct 2009)

Guys, get with the program, we are where we are, let's move forward.
Don't you know NAMA is the only show in town?


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