# Where will we be?



## elefantfresh (19 Jul 2011)

I've been thinking about all this financial crisis, the Chruch, the general state and health of this country. On other forums, you'd think the sky is about to fall on our heads. Without going into absolute specifics, where do you think we'll be in say, ten years time. 

Will there still be a Euro and will we be in it? 
Will the Church have taken a considerable back seat in the day to day of the country? 
Will the price of living be back to "normal"? I won't mention house prices!!
Will the Global Economy be back to "normal"?

I'm not an economist (I truly don't understand all this finance talk thats being beaten into us daily) but will we look back in ten years or so and wonder why there was so much hullabaloo or are we really, genuinely in the mess that some people would have us believe?

Is it possible that things really are not as bad as they seem or are we rightly in the do do?

Is it possible that, fingers crossed in ten years time we'll be ok again? Or is this really the demise of our country?
Talk of major financial crisis in the US, the UK, the Euro - we can't ALL be in trouble can we?


----------



## Betsy Og (19 Jul 2011)

Hard to answer specifically but I'm optimistic. A few random points in support of this view:


Stats can be misleading, our debt to GDP is a gazillion %, a significant point is that GDP is probably "artificially" low, so when that gets back on track the stats will correct themselves.
Once employment grows again you get tax revenue and less social welfare - its the win win flipside of the lose lose we've had of late.
Hype sells papers and makes people feel important, the probable reality is unsexy (IMHO the probable reality is we'll crawl out of the hole over the next 5 years and be the better for the chastening experience). So I'm very reluctant to buy into the apocolypse now theory (just like I was when we were all going to the millionaires and too good for everything).
There's an awful lot of whingers out there, owed a living it seems. They'll do nothing but gripe about things - dont let 'em drag you down.
Every year passing by is a year closer to recovery, we're a few years into this recession, the light will come and we're getting closer to it. Perhaps even, eventually, the banks and NAMA will slowly grind in the right direction - surely another 5 years will have the losses recognised, rationlised and recapitalised.


----------



## Purple (19 Jul 2011)

Agree broadly with Betsy Og


----------



## DB74 (19 Jul 2011)

I would hazard a guess that in 10 years time, the country will be back on its feet and running on a fairly even keel.

Property prices and wages will find their correct levels etc etc

However, anyone who bought when prices were high will have to continue to pay their huge mortgage and will find things tougher than people who will just be starting out buying a home.


----------



## Shawady (19 Jul 2011)

elefantfresh said:


> Will the Church have taken a considerable back seat in the day to day of the country?


 
I think future generations will look back in astonishment at how an organisation like the church had such a grip on the country. I don't know about 10 years, but maybe in time people will ridicule the teachings and beliefs of the church the same way we do at people that thought the earth was flat centuries ago.


----------



## Mrs. Doyle (19 Jul 2011)

I'm not being smart when I say this but as long as I'm 'not six feet  under' I don't care where we will be.  Because of the way things have  gone over the last few years I just take things a day at a time and hope  for the best.  Because I'm stupid I have spent most of my life worrying  about little things and now realise that its a waste of time and  energy.

Obviously one has to be financially cautious but I just find it too  depressing listening to all the doom and gloom and it may sound selfish  but its my survival method.

One relative told me recently that they don't watch much telly or read many newspapers because they can't take much more of it either.  Would have to wonder if they're right.


----------



## elefantfresh (19 Jul 2011)

Theres a lot of positivity in the replies here - it makes a great change from all the doom and gloom normally available. Thanks all for your comments. Lets hope this optimism spreads to the right people and we're all up and running again sometime soon.


----------



## horusd (19 Jul 2011)

Great posts. It got me thinking that maybe if we learned something from all the doom & gloom, it would be that realising we're so much more than an economy. The things that really give me a good feel about Ireland are the likes of the great GAA, the endless natterin we do, the special olympics, etc. And more and more I'm proud of how we have welcomed so many foreigners here, and blended them into our country, and in most cases, made them feel at home. I hope these things will continue, and I'm fairly optimistic. Even the fact we moan so much about what's wrong shows how much we all want to change it. That can only be a good thing.


----------



## Mpsox (19 Jul 2011)

hopefully, still alive and posting on here, with 10 years less left on my mortgage. I don't care about house prices and never really did, I have to live somewhere after all. 

Given that in 10 years time there will have been another 1560 Lotto/Euromillions draws, I'd like to think I'd have won a bit more then the €20 I won last week. although if the Euro is gone, not sure what it'll be called. (have a punt on the Puntmillions maybe).

Hopefully Cork GAA will not be on strike and we'll have won a few more All Irelands, and Munster will have regained their rightful place as kings of Europe (as opposed to kings of the Magners league)


----------



## Birroc (19 Jul 2011)

I have a friend stockpiling food and survival gear so in 10 years I will be either living in his commune or I will be slagging him for being such a loon!


----------



## micmclo (19 Jul 2011)

elefantfresh said:


> Theres a lot of positivity in the replies here - it makes a great change from all the doom and gloom normally available.



I was listening to the Joe Duffy show about cuts on allowances to pensioners and you'd be depressed after listening to it. Not over the cuts but the attitudes and crying and wailing of the callers. Misery porn.
Same with yesterdays Daily Mail about families under pressure. Big bold headline on Page 1, we're doomed!

We were never the second richest country in the world but equally things are not as bad as they seem

Giving up Joe Duffy and the Daily Mail can do a lot to help a persons mood. 
Both are natural homes for the hysterical



horusd said:


> It got me thinking that maybe if we learned something from all the doom & gloom, it would be that realising we're so much more than an economy.



In 2031 after Brendan is a billionaire for selling AAM in the great dot com boom starting in 2025, we'll be back here again, boom and bust and Ireland will be broke
We never learn. 



Birroc said:


> I have a friend stockpiling food and survival gear so in 10 years I will be either living in his commune or I will be slagging him for being such a loon!



Your friend is the wise one, zombie apocalyse is on the way

He will be laughing, you will be food


----------



## ringledman (20 Jul 2011)

Betsy Og said:


> Every year passing by is a year closer to recovery,


 
Every year the West is running a budget deficit. These deficits are much larger than the growth rate in GDP. 

Therefore every year our debt as a total of GDP is rising. 

Therefore our fiscal positions are getting worse each year.

The question is whether the political leaders can grasp this problem quickly enough in order to prevent a much larger problem presenting itself, 5-10 years down the line when debt levels become unsustainably large are spending 20-40% or so of income funding our debt.

Time will tell. I am more optimistic over the short to medium term than the press but longer term we have major issues which need to be faced now.

There is no future, only futures. The tough decisions made now will determine the future outcome. 

So far I don't have much hope for the current set of global leaders to tackle these global imbalances.


----------



## RMCF (21 Jul 2011)

In 10 yrs time I would love to see the Church on its knees, a ruined institution, complete with thousands of priests behind bars, irrespective of their age. Hunted and put away like the evil scum they were.


----------



## Purple (22 Jul 2011)

RMCF said:


> In 10 yrs time I would love to see the Church on its knees, a ruined institution, complete with thousands of priests behind bars, irrespective of their age. Hunted and put away like the evil scum they were.



Wow... what can I say to that?


----------



## Godfather (22 Jul 2011)

elefantfresh said:


> Will there still be a Euro and will we be in it?



No the Euro will die. People hate it more and more and we will all kill it



elefantfresh said:


> Will the Church have taken a considerable back seat in the day to day of the country?



The Church will humbly restart preaching and some priests will keep surviving because they are good people even if their institution is sick



elefantfresh said:


> Will the price of living be back to "normal"? I won't mention house prices!!



Yes, but let's get rid of any debts before buying something that mightn't be necessary. In other words, let's stop consumerism please just because of the stupid slogan of "helping the economy" because the same economy wants us to fully pay our debts



elefantfresh said:


> Will the Global Economy be back to "normal"?



Good question, it's like asking the Dalai Lama are people good or bad? In my opinion we're bad so don't worry too much if there might be a new World WaR because human beings at the core are rotten.

And don't tell me I'm a positive thinker please! 



elefantfresh said:


> I'm not an economist (I truly don't understand all this finance talk thats being beaten into us daily) but will we look back in ten years or so and wonder why there was so much hullabaloo or are we really, genuinely in the mess that some people would have us believe?



Yes, sorry I need to admit that. And people like Warren Buffett are ruling



elefantfresh said:


> Is it possible that things really are not as bad as they seem or are we rightly in the do do?



See above



elefantfresh said:


> Is it possible that, fingers crossed in ten years time we'll be ok again?



Yes if we look more into spirituality rather than pure materialism



elefantfresh said:


> Or is this really the demise of our country?



Ours, Italy, Greece, etc



elefantfresh said:


> Talk of major financial crisis in the US, the UK, the Euro - we can't ALL be in trouble can we?



No, buddhist people will keep surviving with a lovely smile on their face


----------



## RMCF (22 Jul 2011)

Purple said:


> Wow... what can I say to that?



Hear hear?


----------



## Purple (22 Jul 2011)

RMCF said:


> Hear hear?



Np, that's not it.


----------



## Thirsty (27 Jul 2011)

> ...complete with thousands of priests behind bars, irrespective of their age. Hunted and put away like the evil scum they were.


I'm an atheist and I have a problem with that statement.

Substitute Polish, Chinese, Asian, gays or whatever you fancy for 'priests' in that sentence and see if you're still prepared to clap like a seal.


----------



## Godfather (27 Jul 2011)

thirsty said:


> i'm an atheist and i have a problem with that statement.
> 
> Substitute polish, chinese, asian, gays or whatever you fancy for 'priests' in that sentence and see if you're still prepared to clap like a seal.



+1


----------



## SoylentGreen (27 Jul 2011)

Thirsty said:


> I'm an atheist and I have a problem with that statement.
> 
> Substitute Polish, Chinese, Asian, gays or whatever you fancy for 'priests' in that sentence and see if you're still prepared to clap like a seal.


 
If my Auntie were a man......


----------



## horusd (27 Jul 2011)

SoylentGreen said:


> If my Auntie were a man......


 

...and is your Auntie a man? I mean nowadays it's not exactly impossible is it ?


----------



## Purple (27 Jul 2011)

thirsty said:


> i'm an atheist and i have a problem with that statement.
> 
> Substitute polish, chinese, asian, gays or whatever you fancy for 'priests' in that sentence and see if you're still prepared to clap like a seal.



+1


----------



## PaddyW (27 Jul 2011)

RMCF said:


> In 10 yrs time I would love to see the Church on its knees, a ruined institution, complete with thousands of priests behind bars, irrespective of their age. Hunted and put away like the evil scum they were.


 
There are still good people in the church. What needs to be done is to weed out the evil that is within it and make sure these people are banished for good. If they are going to preach against evil, then they must look at their own ranks first.


----------



## Firefly (27 Jul 2011)

PaddyW said:


> *There are still good people in the church*. What needs to be done is to weed out the evil that is within it and make sure these people are banished for good. If they are going to preach against evil, then they must look at their own ranks first.



Given the abuse carried on by "bad" priests and the subsequent cover-up by bishops and higher, what, if anything, did the "good" priests do when all this was going on / came to light? To me it looks like they did nothing. Given what they are happy to preach about, I would have expected at least a march to Rome. By the way, I'm not agreeing with RMCF - that's crazy, but I think my question is valid and it's the primary reason we're not going to church.


----------



## Teatime (27 Jul 2011)

PaddyW said:


> *There are still good people in the church*. What needs to be done is to weed out the evil that is within it and make sure these people are banished for good. If they are going to preach against evil, then they must look at their own ranks first.



I don't buy that. All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing. And a lot of so called good men and women did absolutely nothing and continue to do so.


----------



## elefantfresh (4 Aug 2011)

Just reading there about the end of the Euro and that things are STILL getting worse - heres a question, what would happen a tracker mortgage if the whole pack of cards comes tumbling down?


----------



## Leper (5 Aug 2011)

Elephantfresh started a great thread as in Where will we be . . .? I am probably one of the oldest posters here and though cynical occasionally I can (at least) give some of my life experiences as a guide having worked in the public service, later working in private industry and subsequently as a self employed small-time operator with a small staff of apprenctice cynics.

The decade starting 1950 was dreadful with mass unemployment in a fledgling state and almostvnowhere to go but to the UK or USA seeking any kind of work usually labouring. Mr Lemass promised the rising tide would lift all ships - great catch phrase.

The 1960s were somewhat of an improvement, but still with great unemployment and also mass emigration. As a teenager I met my first non-white person. Wednesday was the official half-day and if you could afford to rent a television (yes rent) you were better off than most. "Free Education" was introduced and suddenly we had an educated unemployed. Our roads were fairly empty as very few could afford a car.

On came the 1970s, still unemployment persisted for many, but the Social Welfare payouts improved. We went into the EEC (now EU) and were promised the sun, moon and stars by our politicians. However, most people improved their lot and there was a kind of camaderie by buying Irish to support Irish industry. There was a great improvement in peoples' living and there was a housing boom and you bought a 3 bedroom house for £7000.00 (Púnts).

Then we went into the 80s, roads improved, housing boom continued and if you worked for any bank you were the envy of all. The interest rate went through the roof (19.5%), the banks just thought up reasons (any reason) to hike the interest rate. Unemployment was still a thorn in our side.

Into the 90s . . . things improved again and for once unemployment appeared to be an unfond memory. Work for nearly everybody and suddenly families had two cars, credit cards, holidays abroad and along came huge immigration.

The 2000s (Noughties) demanded that nearly every school leaver would go to university. The banks went mad. Our Taoiseach said the famous phrase "The Boom has got Boomier . . ." and suddenly the bubble bust and we are now back to a situation resembling the 1950s again.

In a sentence were were always in recession with a glitch along the way which we enjoyed too much (the Boom) and we will continue in recession for many years to come. And many of us were not used to much else.

And will we see the people who caused the recession imprisoned ? Well, I hope to be around then.


----------

