# Amazing differences in mortality rates in Europe



## Brendan Burgess (18 Mar 2020)

There is an amazing difference between Germany and France






These figures are extraordinary 

Mortality rates for those with CV 

Italy: 8%
Spain: 4.5% 
France: 2.2% 
Germany: 0.2%



Brendan


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## noproblem (18 Mar 2020)

No real logic to it, but will it change when numbers rise and are the people being tested in the same age groups with similar ailments, etc?


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## odyssey06 (18 Mar 2020)

The German figures are strange, while they do have more ICU per capita than other countries, people are also questioning if they are correctly recording cause of death e.g. if someone with a serious underlying condition dies and had the virus, are they recording it as coronavirus or due to the condition:








						Why does Germany have so few coronavirus deaths?
					

Germany has more than 3,000 COVID-19 cases and six deaths so far. Much fewer in comparison to other affected countries.




					www.euronews.com
				




Also, the number of deaths depends on how long the country has had cases as it may take weeks for a surge in cases to show up in mortality rates.


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## Eireog007 (18 Mar 2020)

Well one thing which isn’t covered in the numbers is the percentage of those infected who are in the at risk categories. It could be that in Germany the initial infections are heavily weighted towards those who can more easily shake it off.


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## XMarks (18 Mar 2020)

10% of patients with CV require ventilators for at least 2 weeks.

Germany has one of the highest level of ICU beds/ventilators in Europe at 29.2 per 100,000. They have also been adding to this number greatly since the crisis.

Italy have 12.5 per 100,000. They are now overwhelmed. Doctors say they don’t have enough ventilators so more people are dying. 

Ireland has 6 per 100,000. We are in BIG trouble here when the numbers jump.


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## seamus m (18 Mar 2020)

XMarks said:


> 10% of patients with CV require ventilators for at least 2 weeks.
> 
> Germany has one of the highest level of ICU beds/ventilators in Europe at 29.2 per 100,000. They have also been adding to this number greatly since the crisis.
> 
> ...


Leo said we have hundreds and hundreds on the way .


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## XMarks (18 Mar 2020)

I heard that we are getting 100 extra per week.  We need about 2500 immediately and 100 extra per week from then on.


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## mathepac (18 Mar 2020)

seamus m said:


> Leo said we have hundreds and hundreds on the way .


We manufacture 20-30% of the world demand for ventilators in Galway.


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## Sophrosyne (18 Mar 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> Also, the number of deaths depends on how long the country has had cases as it may take weeks for a surge in cases to show up in mortality rates



Not necessarily.

Finland was the 3rd country in the EU, after France & Germany, to report a confirmed case on 28 January. 

Up to 17th March it had a comparatively small 322 cases - 13th in the EU -  & no reported deaths.

By contrast, The Netherlands, which reported its first case on 27 Feb, had 1705 cases - 5th in the EU - and 43 deaths up to 17th March.

I think it might have something to do with population size and the numbers located in large cities.

Proximity to and travel between larger neighbours might also affect numbers.


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## Leo (18 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> These figures are extraordinary



The numbers do seem extraordinary high when compared to other ailments. This is clearly a dangerous virus, but another factor is a diagnosis for COVID-19 requires confirmation via laboratory testing (blood or swab analysis), whereas flu numbers for example will include clinical diagnosis numbers. There is also a variance in the criteria being applied before a test will be ordered from country to country, and even within the same country as the situation evolves, much of that driven by a prioritisation of limited resources to the most serious cases. Most children getting this show little in the way of symptoms, so won't meet the criteria for testing and subsequent inclusion in the stats. 

A number of labs across the country are being reassigned to assessing samples, and other HSE staff are being trained in sample taking to staff the drive-through centres being set up. I hear there are shortages of PPE, and I suspect there is a limited supply of test kits, so it's unlikely in the short term that we, or any other country will get to a point where there is enough capacity to confirm every suspected case.


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## michaelm (18 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> There is an amazing difference between Germany and France


Differences suggested by odyssey06 and others probably explain it.  Also I think Germany has plenty ECOM machines. Once a given health system falls over the figures just run away.


XMarks said:


> Ireland has 6 per 100,000. We are in BIG trouble here when the numbers jump.


They may have to try using single ventilators for multiple patients.


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## Sophrosyne (18 Mar 2020)

The Italian figures today are frightening.

4,207 new cases - total 35,713
475 new deaths - total 2,978

That's only 299 deaths less than China with 80,894 cases.


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## Fidgety (18 Mar 2020)

XMarks said:


> 10% of patients with CV require ventilators for at least 2 weeks.
> 
> Germany has one of the highest level of ICU beds/ventilators in Europe at 29.2 per 100,000. They have also been adding to this number greatly since the crisis.
> 
> ...



And after much digging by CNN, it appears that the US have 19.75 ventilators per 100,000. Trouble is the they’re all in use.


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## XMarks (18 Mar 2020)

A HSE doctor said that every ventilator, assuming two weeks use per patient this year,  has the potential to save 26 lives. Each ventilator costs €30,000.

On another note, there is a GoFundMe doing the rounds called Feed the Heroes raising money to deliver food from 
takeaways/restaurants to nurses and doctors. At the time of writing it has raised in excess of €200,000. It is going viral on social media and in the  papers.

I am sure the HSE have ample food to feed their staff. Encouraging the likes of deliveroo staff into hospitals seems crazy to me.


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## seamus m (21 Mar 2020)

Any new  reasons for  Italian rate  which keeps goin through the roof and any thoughts on a peak there .


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## odyssey06 (21 Mar 2020)

seamus m said:


> Any new  reasons for  Italian rate  which keeps goin through the roof and any thoughts on a peak there .



Combination of the age profile of the Italian population, that the outbreak is concentrated in one region - not equally distributed over the entire country and their ventilator\ICU capacity is overwhelemed. They are conducting triage and people who might otherwise potentially be saved are dying.


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## nest egg (21 Mar 2020)

Thought this was a plausible explanation from the FT as to why the West will be hit harder...
https://www.ft.com/video/857d019f-58b5-4e69-830e-9100fd557213


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## odyssey06 (22 Mar 2020)

Guardian article on Germany's low mortality rate:








						Germany's low coronavirus mortality rate intrigues experts
					

Some query data methodology while others say high testing rates are giving more accurate picture




					www.theguardian.com


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