# TICN (The Investment Club Network)



## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

I've noticed that whenever somebody asks about investment clubs or TICN they are directed to the search function to look for older threads on the topic. The problem with this is that there is a lot of misinformation in those threads.

I'm going to go through the threads in  search and pick out anything I feel needs to be commented on. I will link each thread before I start so you can read the posts in context. If anybody has any other questions about TICN or about my experiences, etc. feel free to ask. If you want to link a thread or post for me to comment on you can do that as well. If you want to disagree with anything I say that's fine also.

First a quick note about myself. I took the MMCP seminar 3 years ago and have been part of a club in the Munster area since then. I'm a 2nd year college student and I'm studying Financial Mathematics in UCC.

I have no interest in nor am I affiliated with TICN in any way. I neither gain nor lose anything from TICN's success or failure.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*

I’ll start with *TICN(The Investment Club Network)- an uneasy feeling*



> While any education on company balance sheets and proper estimation of share values has to be good


 
The MMCP gives no information on reading/understanding company balance sheets. All information about a company’s financials are taken from Valuelines.com. Basically, analysts at Valueline look at the company and write a one page pdf about them. The MMCP teaches you how to dissect these reports and decide if a company is a good investment.

I don’t know if it’s a ‘proper’ estimation of share value but it’s an estimation. The system uses 5 year highs, lows and EPS, then uses a projected EPS (from Valueline) to determine buy, hold and sell ranges.




> One of them was told that TICN were using the "same system that the very successful Warren Buffet" of Berkshire Hathaway uses - I don't think so - Buffet is very conservative, invests for the very longterm, and only invests in businesses he understands - he does NOT mess about with covered calls, put options, short term trading and other whizzy stuff.



You are right, it is not the same system as Warren Buffet uses, although some of his methods are used (i.e. invest in shares you understand). Warren Buffet does however ‘mess about’ with options and sometimes invests in ‘other whizzy stuff’, an example would be junk bonds which he invested in circa 02-03.

In fact I would argue that TICN’s methods are almost too conservative, some of the screens used, such as Beta and debt, may prevent you from investing in an attractive company.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*




> TICN seems to view covered calls as a really easy way of making money with virtually no risk. I formed the opinion that they really don't understand the full implications of what they are doing.


 
The MMCP course only gives a very basic education on covered calls, there is a separate seminar dedicated solely to covered calls available, the latest price is E260. 

I will mention that the explanation I got there was better than the one I got in UCC about options, in fact some of my class (480+ LC points who are strong at math) don’t understand anything about them.

I will probably post more specifics about their covered calls system later.




> I think that they are just misinformed and are spreading this misinformation. I checked out the discussion forums on their website and it was pretty dangerous stuff. I appreciate that the nature of a discussion forum is that anyone can post anything. But there was some guy posting what I considered to be rubbish in a very authoritative manner and no one was challenging or correcting him. Others seemed to regard him as inspired. At least on Askaboutmoney, if I post rubbish in an authorative manner, it will be challenged very very quickly.


 
That forum has been removed from the website, probably due to lack of use. I don’t remember anything that was posted there so I can’t comment. You may very well be right though.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> Just have this feeling that while many in it may be well-intentioned enthusiastic amateurs, there are some "inspirational" speakers from UK or US, and it smacks a bit of AmWay + HerbalLife with a bit of old time religion...
> Some of their strategies seem to work - as long as the underlying shares keep rising - I don't really think those involved have had the chastising and educating experience I've had of seeing my shares fall every damm day for a year.


 
These courses are aimed at well-intentioned, enthusiastic amateurs. I don’t get the AmWay + HerbalLife reference, it was probably before my time. Perhaps somebody could clarify for me.

The underlying shares don’t need to rise for some of the strategies. For example, rolling stocks and covered call strategies can be used when a stock is trading sideways. 

I’m sure some will have the same experience eventually. 




> I am certainly uneasy, TICN take a shareholding in every club (and don't contribute) which is against stock exchange share club guidelines. I attended a hard sell information evening where they couldn't even tell people what the tax implications are for losses/gains, even though there is a publication from the Irish Stock Exchange!





> The supposed expert hadn't a clue and the founder has no background in investments. I strongly advised my wife and her friend to steer well clear.



I haven’t read the stock exchange share club guidelines so I don’t know if TICN is violating any laws there. TICN takes a 5% share of the profits when the club breaks up.

The tax implications where briefly explained at the MMCP I attended when somebody asked, this was not covered very well though.

If by founder you are referring to Owen O’ Malley, who is the CEO of TICN, then he does have a background in investments. He was interviewed on Information TV, BSkyB channel 181, on a show called ‘Experts on TV’. Having met Owen I can tell you that he is a very nice guy and he knows what he’s talking about.




> I thought the idea of taking a 5% equity stake in a club was interesting. There's probably some signaling going on there. I wondered why not just charge an annual membership fee.


 
They take a 5% share of profits to pay the club co-ordinator, it also means that they have an interest in helping the club to succeed.

I don’t get the signaling reference.

They charge a monthly registration to use their website, it’s E150 per club. I’m not sure how much an individual subscription is.




> The approach does seem to have a flavor of value investing, but that's about it


 



> I too get nervous when I hear of novice investors learning about options. Covered calls aren't a bad way to get income. I just think personally it's best to learn about stocks before learning about derivatives.


 
I agree with those comments.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> The idea of a covered call is strange - why would you see a call option if you know that the stock is going to decrease in value? Market sentiment may well send the stock going south well over the expiration date !( 3 weeks).


 
You sell the covered call to trade the fluctuations in price without getting in and out of the shares. 

Here’s an example, I’ve edited out the name just in case it’s against AAM policy, perhaps a moderator could clarify?

The red arrows indicate where you would sell, the blue where you would buy it back. 

[broken link removed][broken link removed]

All well and good you say but how do you know when to do this? 

You use the Bollinger bands (white), moving averages (red and yellow) and trendlines (white).

Watch the price as it moves off the moving averages and outside the Bollinger bands. If it is close to the resistance of the channel this is even better. When it gets outside the Bollinger band it is usually on a high volatility day, this means you will get more for the call premium. Here is where you sell the call.

Next you wait for it to pull back to the moving averages or the bottom of the channel, these often act as support, when it does find this support (i.e. the price stops falling and moves sideways or upwards) it is time to buy back the call. Again if it is a sideways day, volatility will be low and the premium you must pay back is deflated.

So looking at where it is now, we see a large gap up from the support of the channel, any sort of follow through in the next couple of days will push the price outside the Bollinger band, this is when we would sell the call. Unfortunately we are fairly far from the next out of the money strike price ($22.50) so the premium may not be large enough to trade this profitably.

Most of this is not covered in the MMCP but will be built up as you go along and get more experience.

One month covered calls are used because the time value of the calls decreases exponentially when you get within two months of the expiration date. A one year call on the other hand would have a very slow decrease in time value.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> In my experience buy and sell the stock , use the Stochastic indicators as well as Bollinger bands,


 
The MMCP will teach you how to use Money Stream, Balance of Power and Moving Averages.

The TICN website will teach you how to use stochastics, MACD, Wilder’s RSI, Bollinger Bands, ADX, OBV and Volume.

The Telechart software and website will teach you how to use Time Segmented Volume and linear regression channels.

Of course, a lot of that information is also available on investopedia.com.




> Stock Market is very based on market sentiment - if a company is posting great profits and has great management may not mean that the stock is worth a buy due to negative market sentiment


 
From a value investing point of view this is wrong. Read chapter 8 of the Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham, the parable of Mr. Market is fantastic. If there is a negative market sentiment about a strong company, making the price very undervalued, then that would be the ideal time to buy. Eventually, provided the company has continued success, the market will correct to a fair value. At least that’s the theory anyway.


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## darag (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> You use the Bollinger bands (white), moving averages (red and yellow) and trendlines (white).
> 
> Watch the price as it moves off the moving averages and outside the Bollinger bands. If it is close to the resistance of the channel this is even better. When it gets outside the Bollinger band it is usually on a high volatility day, this means you will get more for the call premium. Here is where you sell the call.
> 
> ...


You're studying quantitative finance and yet it seems you're a believer in technical analysis?  Do TICN encourage the use of charting?  Of all the approaches to investing, most forms of technical analysis have been well and truely debunked.  Not only in academic studies but the likes of Buffet, for example, claims he realized technical analysis doesn't work when he turned the charts upside down and got the same answer.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> > _ What does the club coordinator do? I thought that the idea of such a club was that decisions were made collectively - ideally unanimously but I guess that's not always possible once there is more than a single person invoved..._
> 
> 
> The club co-ordinator is like a TICN representative as such - attends your club mtgs & gives guidance - answers questions on diff trading strategies etc. A god club co-ordinator is invaluable to any club. He takes a cut of the profits at the end of the 5 yrs (or sooner if the club ceases)


 
This is all true, he also helps the club set up the paperwork and get an online account started. He helps get people set up with roles in the club; chairman, secretary, trader, treasurer, etc.

A good club co-ordinator is definitely invaluable to any club, in fact they may be the difference between a club failing or succeeding. 

Yes; decisions are taken collectively. Usually there is a fairly unanimous decision but sometimes not. For example, in the chart I linked earlier my club decided to sell around the middle of December. I was against selling as it was still in a very healthy uptrend but there was a large profit (15-20%) and the rest of the club decided to sell. 

Yesterday it went up 6%, luckily I own a LEAP in this company in my personal portfolio.

Also the clubs designated traders may be given permission to make trades between meetings if a suitable trade comes up.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> You're studying quantitative finance and yet it seems you're a believer in technical analysis? Do TICN encourage the use of charting? Of all the approaches to investing, most forms of technical analysis have been well and truely debunked. Not only in academic studies but the likes of Buffet, for example, claims he realized technical analysis doesn't work when he turned the charts upside down and got the same answer.


 
Yes; I am a believer in technical analysis. However, I also use fundamental research to find undervalued shares and technical analysis for entry/exit and covered calls. Please link to those studies as I would really like to read them. If you are refering to CAPM and EMH, then that has been well and truly debunked also. In fact, Warren Buffet describes CAPM as 'twaddle'. 

There are some hedge funds which use purely technical analysis, such as James Simons' Medallion Fund. Net 35% annual returns since 1989, for a $5 billion dollar long-short fund. 

'Renaissance uses computer-based models to predict price changes ...These models are based on analyzing as much data as can be gathered, then looking for non-random movements to make predictions...Renaissance represents a validation of the quantitative trading model and trades with such high-frequency that it (the Nova fund, specifically) accounts for over 10% of all the trades occurring on NASDAQ some days. It is worth noting that the Nova trades execute purely electronically on direction from a computer model.'

Due to his success, Simons is now one of the 75 richest people in the USA. 

There have also been some papers on technical analysis, an example would be 'The profitabililty of momentum strategies,' by Jegadeesh and Titman, 1999, and 1993.

"This paper evaluates various explanations for the profitability of momentum strategies documented in Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). *The evidence indicates that momentum profits have continued in the 1990's *suggesting that the original results were not a product of data snooping bias. 

The paper also examines the predictions of recent behavioral models that propose that *momentum profits are due to delayed overreactions which are eventually reversed.* ... Our analysis of post-hiding period returns sharply rejects a claim in the literature that the observed momentum profits can be explained completely by the cross-sectional dispersion in expected returns." 

TICN do teach charting and encourage it if you are using strategies such as rolling, momentum or covered calls, etc.

However, the very first strategy they teach is Buy and Hold which they recommend the most.


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## ClubMan (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



RedJoker said:


> If anybody has any other questions about TICN or about my experiences, etc. feel free to ask.
> 
> ...
> 
> I have no interest in nor am I affiliated with TICN in any way. I neither gain nor lose anything from TICN's success or failure.


You invite _"questions about TICN or about my experiences" _but say that you have no involvement with _TICN_. Can you clarify what you mean please because this sounds a bit contradictory to me.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



ClubMan said:


> You invite _"questions about TICN or about my experiences" _but say that you have no involvement with _TICN_. Can you clarify what you mean please because this sounds a bit contradictory to me.


 
Certainly, I probably stated this poorly. By involvement I mean that I do not benefit from TICN's success, etc. If people decide to attend the MMCP or not based on my posts it will make no difference to me. I just wanted to post my experiences for members here.

By _"questions about TICN or about my experiences" _I mean I will answer questions about the MMCP, the website, fees or anything else I know. By experiences I mean taking the MMCP and being in an active club.

I thought I should mention that I have no financial involvement with TICN because I knew it would be asked and it is an important point.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*

I’m going to go onto *TICN get a very easy ride on RTÉ's "The Business"*



> I attended an introductory talk by *TICN*, and I can’t see how you can make money out of it. The idea is that you sjoin an investment club; all club members attend a training course (cost about 1000 euro) and then subscribe 100 euro per month to the club to buy shares. The club exists for 5 years and then winds up, distributing its assets to the members. There is a standing charge of 150 euro per month to the club for the analysis sheets and services from Valueline, the trader software, newsletter, etc. *TICN* also takes 5% of the shareholding in the club financed by the other club members, i.e. in effect a charge of 5% on your monthly subscription. So how can you make money? If *TICN* takes 5% of the subs and there is also a standing charge a club of 10 people would need its shares to grow at about 7% p.a. just to break even on the subscriptions / standing charge. To cover the cost of the training course you would need to gain even more. Increasing the number of club members will not offset the subscription / standing charge if your gains on the investments are low. A club with the max of 20 members would still need their shares to gain at least 5% p.a. to break even on subscriptions / standing charge. The *TICN* strategy includes the selling of options (i.e. covered calls) on the shares to gain a ‘rent’. So, you need both relatively high gains on the stocks and profitable option selling to make a profit. To be fair to *TICN* they did not hide these charges at the presentation I attended, but only one member of the audience picked up on this point, which would make me question the financial sophistication on the other potential club members. If people are not aware of the impact of costs on investment returns could you really trust them to select profitable shares? Anyone have any other experience / observations?


 
The fee for the course is now E1295. There is also a money back guarantee on this if you decide you do not want to finish the course before lunch time on the Saturday.

Access to the website is still E150, or E7.50 per member. For this you get analysis sheets and services from Valueline, newsletters, loads of educational pieces and free webshops with Owen O’ Malley. Charts are not included, they must be bought separately. The online brokerage is free anyway.

The webshops are brilliant and are a great help when learning, they are interactive so you can ask Owen to look at stocks you are interested in and he will give his opinion on the charts. 

Your mathematics is wrong here. A club would have to make 9% per annum for 5 years to break even. 

The fees for an individual are 1295 for the MMCP and 7.50 a month.

1295 + (7.50 * 60) = 1745

5% of the profits go to TICN.

1745 / (0.95) = 1836.84

Therefore an individual will have costs of 1836.84 over 5 years.

The total amount invested comes to (100 * 60) = 6000

So an individual needs a share of 6000 + 1836.84 = 7836.84 to break even.

In the first year 1200 is invested, at a 9% return this comes to 1308.
In the second year 1308 + 1200 = 2508, at a 9% return = 2733.72
In the third year 2733.72 + 1200 = 3933.73, at a 9% return = 4297.75
In the fourth year 4287.75 + 1200 = 5487.75, at a 9% return = 5981.65
In the final year 5981.65 + 1200 = 7181.65, at a 9% return = 7828.

This is close to the 7836.84 figure need. 

Obviously a 9% return is a huge percentage in fees to be paying.  This does not include the cost of Telecharts or the meeting rooms.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> Why pay *anybody *(other than a stockbroker and the taxman) when you can manage your own investment club and access all of the relevant resources for free? Neither _TICN _nor any other individual/organisation has exclusive access to information on stock market investing no matter what might be claimed or implied.


 
TICN do have exclusive access to their system, to the webshops, to the 4x4 companies that they post on their website, to TICN clubs and to the options trade finders.

They also pay for access to Valueline.

The educational articles are available on the net for free however.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> Why not just buy the ISEQ ETF - simple, effective, with stock specific risks nullified?


 
An excellent idea. Warren Buffet once said that for 99% of investors index funds are the best option.

I would also diversify those funds across different markets, currencies, capitalizations and sectors.

ETFs, as you mentioned, are also a viable option but remember that both index funds and ETFs have their pros and cons.


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## ClubMan (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



RedJoker said:


> TICN do have exclusive access to their system, to the webshops, to the 4x4 companies that they post on their website, to TICN clubs and to the options trade finders.
> 
> They also pay for access to Valueline.


Be that as it may the _Efficient Market Hypothesis _would suggest that this in no way ensures that they are better able to decide when to buy low and sell high that anybody else.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



ClubMan said:


> Be that as it may the _Efficient Market Hypothesis _would suggest that this in no way ensures that they are better able to decide when to buy low and sell high that anybody else.


 
This is very true and on this occasion I agree with the EMH. I mentioned earlier in the thread that the EMH isn’t necessarily true and there has been a lot written about this topic. [broken link removed] would be one example.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*




> I did the TICN investment course last year - great course but I was not too enthused about joining a club and I am glad that I did not. There are a lot of stocks that TICN do not cover because theey are not "4X4" stocks!!! which to me is quite conservative. Another point being missed here is no matter what stock anyone has picked recently, would have suffered due to Bernake's (Federal Reserve) chairman reports about inflation rates hence since about May the Market has been extremely Bearish - okay so you can buy Put Options or sell short (which TICN do not favour yet are less expensive brokerage fees - but really was based on market sentiment and I believe not everybody could have guessed that that would happen. Last October to May I found Bullish , market since May is bearish, due to interest rate increases seem to be levelling off for now(CPI data seems to show this too) might start a Bullish run again.


 
Personally I think that if you take the MMCP then you should definitely join a club. You will learn a lot more being a part of a club and having a good club co-ordinator then you will get from the MMCP.

Yes; you are right, it is very conservative.

TICN do not favour selling short because it is riskier, unlimited downside risk, etc. Also you need a portfolio of $25,000 and a margin account. There is a puts course available.



> TICN data about clubs is very suspect .... Great course - but steer clear of clubs - the blind leading the blind - in my opinion . Of course Im no expert but when it comes to your hard earned money - do your own research, know the market sentiment, when to buy and when to sell ( online) and take you profits periodically ... that has been my experience....




Initially everyone will be blind but hopefully some members will take the lead and bring the rest of the club up to speed.


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## ClubMan (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



RedJoker said:


> By experiences I mean taking the MMCP and being in an active club.


Are you saying that you are a member of an investment club that was set up under the auspices or guidance of _TICN_? If this is the case then surely you *do *have some vested interest since the performace of your investments presumably depends to some extent on _TICN_?


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*

I'll move onto *Investment Clubs* now. If I've missed anything you think is important just point it out.



> TICN run an MMCP Seminar (Making Money is Childs Play).


 
It's 'Making Money with Careful Planning'.



> This is intense & runs on a Fri eve, all day Saturday & all day Sunday.


 
There is also the option to do it over 4 thursday nights.



> Is there anyone who has done the course can give a verdict on the MMCP course in terms of...
> 
> - Worthwhile
> - Very beneficial
> ...


 
I found it very worthwhile and since I was a student it was free for me to attend. Also spouses can attend at half price. If you have a few teenagers it can definitely be worth the money.

None of it went over my head but some people did struggle with the covered calls part of the course.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



ClubMan said:


> Are you saying that you are a member of an investment club that was set up under the auspices or guidance of _TICN_? If this is the case then surely you *do *have some vested interest since the performace of your investments presumably depends to some extent on _TICN_?


 
Okay, I think you're just nitpicking here but I suppose if they went bankrupt I wouldn't have access to their website, although to be honest I don't use it that much anymore.  

However I doubt that will happen, particularly considering their fees, wouldn't you agree?


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*




> The sytem is based on stock tips from a company in the states-arrives by CD Rom each month.


 
No; it’s not.




> The system is based on a stock market guru by the name of Babu Shah, a genius by all accounts.


 
Never heard about this but I could be wrong.




> Hi N3000 - You raise an interesting point. Let's put ourselves in the shoes of the TICN mentor/trainer. They get out of bed on a Saturday morning and say to themselves "Should I spend the next two days actively trading my portfolio & my put/call options using all my expertise or should I take €900 per head for a pile of suckers/punters listening to me". One would think that if it's so easy to make real money in the markets, they might choose the former. Funny how they choose the latter!



The market is closed on Saturday and Sunday. Also all the trainers manage their own portfolios and learned the TICN system. Some have even been able to quit their day jobs because of it, although they were probably very dedicated and lucky as well.



> It seems odd to me that anybody would recommend arguably advanced trading instruments such as puts and calls, rather than simple acquisitions and disposals, to novice investors!


 
True; but they have to get something for their money I suppose.




> When the club members feel that enough knowledge has been gathered through training, another acc is opened to conduct options trading.


 
It’s the same account.


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> At least read something like A Random Walk Down
> Wall Street by Burton Malkiel before proceeding.


 
Completely agree, the more you can read before taking the course, be it investment books or online sites, the more you will get out of the course. You will also be more informed about whether the course is right for you, worth your time/money, etc. Check out the recommended reading thread in the key posts for some ideas.



> show them how to gamble,


 
To be fair, TICN's system is probably less of a gamble than what a lot of people do (i.e. taking tips off relatives or neighbours, etc.)


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## ClubMan (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



RedJoker said:


> The market is closed on Saturday and Sunday.


It is still possible to trade on certain markets (e.g. _NASDAQ_, _NYSE_) out of hours by way of market makers and electronic trading platforms accessible to the general punter. See this SEC article for example.


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## Brendan Burgess (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> Buffet, for example, claims he realized technical analysis doesn't work when he turned the charts upside down and got the same answer.


 
That's brilliant. I hadn't heard it before and it sums up Technical Analysis.

Brendan


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> Quote:
> Originally Posted by *RedJoker* http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=341103#post341103
> _The market is closed on Saturday and Sunday._
> 
> It is still possible to trade on certain markets (e.g. _NASDAQ_, _NYSE_) out of hours by way of market makers and electronic trading platforms accessible to the general punter. See this SEC article for example.


 
Okay, I stand corrected. TICN doesn't recommend this so they might not do it though  .


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## RedJoker (4 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



Brendan said:


> That's brilliant. I hadn't heard it before and it sums up Technical Analysis.
> 
> Brendan


 
Yes; sometimes charts can be ambiguous and people might disagree about which direction the price is likely to move in.

Having said that, people will often disagree about the fundamentals of a company as well and in particular it's intrinsic value. This is often due to different methods or different discount or growth figures.


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## dunkamania (5 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*

Is there performance related information available other than showing the top 50 performers,I would like to see the bottom 50 clubs in comparison as well as knowing how the group as a whole compared to the major Indices,gross and net of TICN's fees and share


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## darag (5 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> Is there performance related information available other than showing the top 50 performers,I would like to see the bottom 50 clubs in comparison as well as knowing how the group as a whole compared to the major Indices,gross and net of TICN's fees and share


Great question.  This is the real meat of the matter isn't it?

I know "past performance is no predictor", but even if TICN clubs in general have historically outperformed the major indexes then I would be impressed to a degree.

I suspect they underperform - possibly by a big margin.  Otherwise, they'd be shouting about the returns clubs make.


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## charttrader (5 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*

Not a member of TICN; do know a bit about them.

Personal objections include; 

From what I see, a lack of empasis on money management/bet size.  Probably most crucial area of trading. 

There seems to be an emphasis on not taking a loss.  Read an interview with TICN promoter recently who said she had never taken a loss on a trade (income from covered calls included,etc). I think that is ridiculous and unsustainable.  We all get things wrong. When we do, take the loss quickly. Redjoker says that TICN does not recommend short selling because of the risk of unlimited losses. Using a stop loss order prevents that.

Charges are steep, particularly the charge for the course on candle charting (395 euro).  There's masses of free info all over the web on candle charting. I love candle charts for their clarity, but a few pages of info is all you really need to know anyway,IMHO.

Remember reading saying that they aim for 2% a week.  Even the top clubs have come nowhere near returns like that. 

In their defence - it's a much better package than that offered by other investment clubs (thinking of ILTB's paltry offering). Also, it's good that some effort is made to teach people nuts and bolts of technical analysis.  The ignorance in Ireland on this subject is breathtaking.  Quoting a witticism from Buffett is not proof that it doesn't work.  Some of the most successful traders rely almost solely on TA.  I notice that none of the sceptics on this board answered RedJoker's point regarding the phenomenonally successful James Simons, for example. Ditto with Ed Seykota, Bruce Kovner and a host of others.  TA is not some voodoo astrology - you will come across very few professionals who do not use it in some form.  If you are a short-term trader, in particular, it's indispensible. 

(On a separate point, the markets *are *closed on Saturday and Sunday.  After-hours trading amounts to a few hours before and after the offical opening hours. Liquidity tends to be awful during these times and very few traders even bother attempting to trade these times).


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## RedJoker (6 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> > Is there performance related information available other than showing the top 50 performers,I would like to see the bottom 50 clubs in comparison as well as knowing how the group as a whole compared to the major Indices,gross and net of TICN's fees and share
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 
No; they don't show how the other clubs do. Your suspicions are probably correct. A lot of clubs do go bust or break up. TICN might argue that this could be due to the individuals not putting in the time or effort, etc. or that those clubs didn't follow the TICN system and invest in 4x4 companies.

However, the clubs probably do better than people who follow 'Uncle Jim's or Auntie Mary's' advice but worse than those who dollar cost average into index funds.

Of course a seminar saying just put money into index funds probably wouldn't last very long.


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## RedJoker (6 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*




> From what I see, a lack of empasis on money management/bet size. Probably most crucial area of trading.


 
TICN recommend buying at least 300 shares of a company, otherwise commissions on covered calls become insurmountable. 

For a full club with 19 members, after one year they will have invested E22,800. To buy 300 shares of optionable companies a club stands absolutely no chance of being adequately diversified (as defined by portfolio theory). 




> There seems to be an emphasis on not taking a loss. Read an interview with TICN promoter recently who said she had never taken a loss on a trade (income from covered calls included,etc). I think that is ridiculous and unsustainable. We all get things wrong. When we do, take the loss quickly.


 
I definitely agree with this, there's the sense that if one of your strategies go wrong (rolling, momentum, etc.), it's okay because you're in it for the long run and you're using buy and hold strategies. That's just the feeling I got anyway.

Come to think of it, they did say that you should be comfortable holding onto the shares for the next 5 years if you want to roll, etc. The problem is that you tie up large amounts of capital by doing this instead of just taking the loss.




> Redjoker says that TICN does not recommend short selling because of the risk of unlimited losses. Using a stop loss order prevents that.


 
TICN do recommend stop-losses. However, stop-losses do not always get you out, stocks will sometimes gap, particularly foreign stocks. There are a lot of cons involved with short-selling; uptick rules, the risk of short squeezes, having to use margin (TICN recommend not using this), etc.

Also their argument is that the companies are of good quality and are expected to go up over time, therefore you are betting against the direction of the long-term market.

Another point would be that amateur investors probably shouldn't be short-selling anyway.




> Charges are steep, particularly the charge for the course on candle charting (395 euro). There's masses of free info all over the web on candle charting. I love candle charts for their clarity, but a few pages of info is all you really need to know anyway,IMHO.


 
TICN also have a long piece about Candlesticks in their education centre on their website.

I've never taken that course, I watched a Ryan Lytchfield DVD which gave me the basics. One argument I would have against all the free info on the web is that it's often hard to pick out important points, particularly for beginners. Having a teacher point out relevant parts is very useful.




> Remember reading saying that they aim for 2% a week. Even the top clubs have come nowhere near returns like that.


 
I think they say 5% a month, still an unsustainable goal, especially for novices.



> In their defence - it's a much better package than that offered by other investment clubs (thinking of ILTB's paltry offering). Also, it's good that some effort is made to teach people nuts and bolts of technical analysis. The ignorance in Ireland on this subject is breathtaking. Quoting a witticism from Buffett is not proof that it doesn't work. Some of the most successful traders rely almost solely on TA. I notice that none of the sceptics on this board answered RedJoker's point regarding the phenomenonally successful James Simons, for example. Ditto with Ed Seykota, Bruce Kovner and a host of others. TA is not some voodoo astrology - you will come across very few professionals who do not use it in some form. If you are a short-term trader, in particular, it's indispensible.


 
Just a quick note on TA. The charting package TICN recommend, Telecharts, is fantastic. There is a wealth of educational information all over the place; there is an online forum, online videos a couple times a month, notes on charts from the owners, etc. I can’t recommend it highly enough.

TICN do not recommend using TA solely. They use fundamental analysis to find good quality, undervalued companies and technical analysis to time entry and exit points.

I spoke to a retired hedge fund manager who didn't use TA. He conceded that price patterns could often be interesting when viewed in light of what was going on at the company.


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## RedJoker (6 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



dunkamania said:


> Is there performance related information available other than showing the top 50 performers,I would like to see the bottom 50 clubs in comparison as well as knowing how the group as a whole compared to the major Indices,gross and net of TICN's fees and share


 
I noticed this was brought up in another thread I went through. I refrained from commenting at the time because I wanted to see if it was possible to estimate the other returns, or a mean value, using a normal distribution. 

Given that we have the returns for the top 50 clubs out of however many there are we might be able to get confidence intervals or important statistics from the data.

However, there would be problems with this and assumptions would have to be made. Also I'm not sure if it's possible but I will have a go anyway.


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## RedJoker (6 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*

This is taken from *Views on Investment Clubs*




> Having seen the methods and "skills" taught by one investment club, TICN, timing of the market is specifically one of the things that they do encourage their members to pursue.





> They don't even give you free reign on what stocks to analyse and buy buy. You get a listing of "vetted" stocks from head office each month to analyse and then make your buy decisions based on that.


 
They first teach the buy and hold methods. Then they add in other strategies which do contain elements of market timing. But IMHO nearly all forms of stock selection boil down to some form of ‘market timing’.

You’re right; they don’t give you free reign over stock selection. They post a list of stocks which meet their requirements for quality and price, then you are expected to evaluate these companies yourself (using TICN’s methods) and base your investment decisions on that.



> > _You get a listing of "vetted" stocks from head office each month to analyse and then make your buy decisions based on that._
> 
> 
> 
> _Hmmm ... some scope there for head office bigwigs to engage in a bit of pump and dump? Not that I'm saying that they would of course. Just like all those people with access to insider info who don't use it when trading because it's illegal._


 
The list of stocks also shows the scores for price and quality, it is then expected that you do your own research on the company as well. Therefore even if they did recommend a weak stock, individuals should recognize this and not buy it.

Also since the amount of money traded by TICN is miniscule when compared with the ‘big picture’ and the stocks covered by Valueline usually have large daily volume, it would be a fairly ineffective method for a pump and dump scam.


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## RedJoker (6 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*

*Investment clubs - or alternatives?*



> I live in Cork too and I checked out *TICN* last year. I got them to put me in touch with a local club that was forming and I went along to a couple of meetings before I forked out any cash. I decided against it in the end. As an education it might have been interesting but there is no way the club would make money. The only one making money would be *TICN* imho. I worked out the costs involved at the time and for the club (a bunch of people starting with no real investment experience) to break even we would need gains of about 10% not including the price of the trainig course. I got the impression that the club members seemed to think making money was going to be easy and that put me off also.


 
I think it may be worth while for people thinking of taking the MMCP to attend a meeting of a club that is already formed in your area. Tell them you are thinking of signing up. It would give you the chance to see how the club operates and form your own opinion before making a financial commitment. 

Notice how many of the members attend, how many contribute to the discussions, what they focus on, etc. It’s surely worth an hour or two of your time and afterwards you could post your experience in this thread for other members.

A couple of months ago two people decided to come along to one of my club’s meetings, one had been in another club which had broken up and one was thinking of taking the MMCP. The first has joined our club and I haven’t heard from the second since.

Yes it could be close to 10% when all costs are included. Realize that the E7.50 you pay for the website means you have to make 7.5% on the E100 invested to break even. A fairly sobering thought.




> in reply to "anyone have any dealing with TICN" i was a member of a club for over a year and we made some good losses!!!! the club "co-ordinator" had no idea about running a club i did find the whole experience an "EyeOpener". and as with any "Club" it depends on what all the members put into it and with people not turning up, not putting money in every month its becomes a drag. We broke up the club wiith some loss. that all said I really do think it is a great idea but badly run, but it seems that they are really only interested in getting ur money for the "Lame" education they give for €900.


 
You must have gotten a bad club co-ordinator. As I mentioned before, they are an extremely important component in any club.

Most people have good intentions when starting off, a lot soon realize they no longer have the time or inclination to turn up or participate. There are a few members of my club that don’t have the time to attend meetings; it’s fairly frustrating when meetings are only half full. 

I do spend a good deal of time and effort trying to educate the other members, e-mailing educational pieces and links to various sites, etc. At some meetings I have gone through indicators and trades. I also e-mail a report of our current position and explain my views on our investments and potential trades each month. 

It is in my best interest to see the other people in my club learning as the club's results might suffer otherwise.


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## PMU (6 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



RedJoker said:


> *Investment clubs - or alternatives?*
> 
> There are a few members of my club that don’t have the time to attend meetings; it’s fairly frustrating when meetings are only half full.
> 
> ...



You seem to be the victim of the ‘free rider problem’.  You are more into the club than the others but you spend your time doing educational work and hoping to build up enthusiasm, while the ‘free riders’ will benefit from your activities.  Why waste your time on them?  Even if some members do know a bit about trading it is in their interest to get ideas from you and keep their own knowledge private.   Concentrate on your time and effort on trades that benefit you personally.  You can always use a spread betting a low cost way of testing trading strategies.


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## RedJoker (7 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> You seem to be the victim of the ‘free rider problem’. You are more into the club than the others but you spend your time doing educational work and hoping to build up enthusiasm, while the ‘free riders’ will benefit from your activities. Why waste your time on them?


 
For the same reason people post on this message board I suppose. 



> Even if some members do know a bit about trading it is in their interest to get ideas from you and keep their own knowledge private.


 
I understand why it is in their interest to get ideas from me but could you elaborate on why it's in their best interest to keep their own knowledge private?



> Concentrate on your time and effort on trades that benefit you personally. You can always use a spread betting a low cost way of testing trading strategies.


 
I suppose practicing trades benefits me personally, I gain experience and feel the emotions that are inherent in trading (which play money trading can't replicate).

The ability to test new strategies and bounce ideas off people is also very useful.


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## RedJoker (7 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*

I just went onto the performance of the top 50 clubs page on the TICN website, updated as of 21st of December 2006.

They name Blackwater Traders Investment Club as the top club, having achieved a 134% return.

I can gaurantee this is false, since I'm a member of that club and our returns are nowhere near that.  In fact, most of the data on our club is inaccurate.

Either they have our club mixed up with another one, they were misinformed about our results or they're just plain lying.  In any case I feel it's worth mentioning.

I've e-mailed their support and I will post their response when I get it.


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## PMU (8 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



RedJoker said:


> For the same reason people post on this message board I suppose.


 Posting on a bulletin board can be a non-zero sum game, e.g.  if I like a good or a service it’s in my interest to alert others to its existence so the manufacturer or service provider will continue to produce it or produce better goods or services. 
  But trading is a (at best) a zero-sum game. You’ve loads of posts on, e.g. funds, asset allocation etc.  but nobody posts their trading strategy.




RedJoker said:


> I understand why it is in their interest to get ideas from me but could you elaborate on why it's in their best interest to keep their own knowledge private?


 
  Because trading is a zero-sum game (it’s actually a negative sum game as brokers slice off their fees from each trade).  If someone can learn from you and improve his/her trading strategy (while yours remains constant) it is in his/her interest to do so, in the long run they will gain.  They also save on the intellectual work of research, fact finding etc. as you are doing it for them – for free.  That’s why I’ve never seen the benefit of investment clubs – apart from their social dimension. Unless everybody pull their weight  you must have a free-rider problem.


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## dunkamania (8 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



PMU said:


> Because trading is a zero-sum game (it’s actually a negative sum game as brokers slice off their fees from each trade). If someone can learn from you and improve his/her trading strategy (while yours remains constant) it is in his/her interest to do so, in the long run they will gain. They also save on the intellectual work of research, fact finding etc. as you are doing it for them – for free. That’s why I’ve never seen the benefit of investment clubs – apart from their social dimension. Unless everybody pull their weight you must have a free-rider problem.


 
For some people it could be a motivational issue,many people would never attempt it on their own.

Also given the amounts involved bulking together 19 peoples money for these trades cuts down significantly on commission costs per person


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## RedJoker (8 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> Quote:
> Originally Posted by *RedJoker* http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=342443#post342443
> _For the same reason people post on this message board I suppose. _
> 
> ...


 
By alerting others to the existence of a good or service you may increase the demand for it, which in turn may raise it's price.

Trading is a positive sum game, the market rises in the long run. Options are an example of a zero sum game.

My point about message boards is that you personally gain nothing from posting advice. You could selfishly only read the posts and ask questions, this would increase your own knowledge whereas posting advice would benefit others. 




> Quote:
> Originally Posted by *RedJoker* http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=342443#post342443
> _I understand why it is in their interest to get ideas from me but could you elaborate on why it's in their best interest to keep their own knowledge private?_
> 
> ...


 
Again, trading is a positive sum game. If someone learns from me, they will gain, but it won't be at my expense. My knowledge and returns from any trading strategies will still be the same.

If both of us share our knowledge we will both gain.

You're right there may be a free-rider problem, somebody may gain knowledge from my efforts while giving me nothing in return. However if, for example, 5 people all share their knowledge and advice, then the group, collectively, will gain.


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## RedJoker (18 Jan 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



RedJoker said:


> I just went onto the performance of the top 50 clubs page on the TICN website, updated as of 21st of December 2006.
> 
> They name Blackwater Traders Investment Club as the top club, having achieved a 134% return.
> 
> ...


 
I just got a reply to my e-mail.

This is the message I sent:

"I was looking at the performance of the top 50 clubs.  I noticed that Blackwater traders was listed top with a 134% return.  Being a member of Blackwater traders, I found it unusual since our returns are nowhere near the figures quoted and the majority of your data is inaccurate. 

Could you please let me know how you get your information and why there is such a large difference between our true results and the ones quoted? "

Their reply was:

"The data was coming from Trackdata but was not allowing for the bulk dollar system.
You may have noticed we have taken the figures off the website until we can get more reliable data."


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## RedJoker (4 Feb 2007)

*Re: Ticn*



> > Stock Market is very based on market sentiment - if a company is posting great profits and has great management may not mean that the stock is worth a buy due to negative market sentiment
> 
> 
> From a value investing point of view this is wrong. Read chapter 8 of the Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham, the parable of Mr. Market is fantastic. If there is a negative market sentiment about a strong company, making the price very undervalued, then that would be the ideal time to buy. Eventually, provided the company has continued success, the market will correct to a fair value. At least that’s the theory anyway.


I just found an online article written by Buffet that went through Ben's Mr Market parable. I hope a few people will get something out of it.
​


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## triple_x (25 Mar 2007)

*Re: Ticn*

I thought I would add some input here...

I have done the TICN course about 1.5 years ago now and I firmly believe and still do that any education in this area is a good thing!

So how did I get on after the course - well for the 1st 6 months I did very well - made about 25% ROI.

The next 6 months (from July '06 to the end of the year) no so well. Now I seem to be making back my initial 25% again.

The important thing I learned were the following...

After all the investment courses, reading books you have to dive in and learn as the market devlops...One thing for sure what the market has done in the past 2 years does not mean that the market(or any one stock) is going to do that again. This is what technical charting on its own tries to do....You have to do your homework - fundamental analysis (risk to reward, future projections...)

You only make money when you sell. Dont fool yourself into thinking that you are up 25% but have not sold your positions. The market can change on a dime....

If you do your fundamental analysis then the rewards can be quite good. For example at the start of this year a lot of analysts were predicting that OIL was going to below $50 a barrel yet if you did your homework the fundamentals have not changed and it is why OIL is now at $62 and I believe will at least go to $70 by the summer....OIL stocks and alternative energy look good right now but it is important to understand why. Similarly for other industries...

One needs to understand what the FED is doing and how it affects the markets also things like CPI(Consumer Price Index), housing data(if people are having difficulty holding onto there houses they are not going to have money for buying consumer items!) as well as other indices etc . etc... 

Using the Stochastic signals and bolinger bands is a good technical tool to use after doing your fundamental analysis to know when to buy then to sell and then to buy again (i.e the magic of compound interest).

Dont underestimate the power of compound interest. Alot of people who look at the stock market look for a single stock that they want to go from 0-1000% in one year! The odds of this happening are quite remote. Better method I believe is to move your money around (buy and sell stock) using compound interest.

One other thing is that TICN frowns on buying on margin but if you do your fundamental analysis and understand what you are doing then it can make sense to buy on margin to make good money- I have done this many times and it can be very rewarding. 

TICN purport to sell covered calls - I got burnt on this many times. If the stock is going to go negative better to sell the stock than playing with covered calls.....I would not advise to the novice to market OPTIONs wether Calls or puts!

Hopefully this advice might be useful to someone!


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## miller (26 Mar 2007)

hay i want to thank every one who posted there is a fantastic amount of information here.


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## triple_x (26 May 2007)

Just an update since my post since March. Based on my advice given since March I have been able to DOUBLE my money since then!!!

Im not bragging here but I think the advice above although may seem elementary seems to work for me and may work for others

To summarise - compound interest is very powerful and understanding the market and realising it is bullish one can make the decision to buy on Margin!

I invested in theS&P500, Dow, Tech, Big Oil, and alternative energy stocks!

Looks like Tech and Big Oil might be good for another month or too.

Looks like Fed will not cut interest Rate but I think that is a good thing since I believe there needs to be a cooling off period....


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