# Life expectancy. Predictions for when I will die



## SPC100 (16 Jul 2021)

Hi,

Are there any good Irish data sources I can use to predict a range for my life expectancy? Ideally as personalised as possible, i.e. based on my age, smoking, drinking, exercising etc.

Maybe the CSO or some life assurance company or Irish actuary or statistics group?

There are a few threads on how to spend your retirement. How long will my retirement be is my question.

Thanks


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## SPC100 (16 Jul 2021)

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/mdi/mortalitydifferentialsinireland2016-2017/ has some interesting info.

I think it implies for a long life you want to be female, married, 3rd level educated, doing skilled work, living in an owner occupied home in an affluent area, without disabilities and protestant. Although it didn't say how good it gets if you are all of these things.


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## Sarenco (16 Jul 2021)

Aviva UK has a fairly basic life expectancy calculator -





						Life Expectancy Calculator - Aviva
					

Aviva




					www.direct.aviva.co.uk


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## Marc (16 Jul 2021)

SPC100 said:


> https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/mdi/mortalitydifferentialsinireland2016-2017/ has some interesting info.
> 
> I think it implies for a long life you want to be female, married, 3rd level educated, doing skilled work, living in an owner occupied home in an affluent area, without disabilities and protestant. Although it didn't say how good it gets if you are all of these things.


one of my favourite stats on this

if you get on the Tube at Westminster in London and head east your life expectancy declines by a year every tube stop.

these things really do have an impact on life expectancy or at least reflect something of how one’s lifestyle impacts life expectancy


Our calculator uses ONS data from the U.K. but it’s good enough for assumptions purposes


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## Brendan Burgess (16 Jul 2021)

Marc said:


> if you get on the Tube at Westminster in London and head east your life expectancy declines by a year every tube stop.



What happens if you go to work every day in that direction?  You will live only a couple of weeks.


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## Marc (16 Jul 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> What happens if you go to work every day in that direction?  You will live only a couple of weeks.


Lol


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## jpd (16 Jul 2021)

Your best guide to how long you will live is how long did your parent, uncles and aunts and grand-parents live?


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## odyssey06 (16 Jul 2021)

Just remember you need to distinguish between life expectancy at *birth*, and life expectancy at *age attained*, if you are looking at any life expectancy predictors.


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## SPC100 (16 Jul 2021)

Yes, I want to know given my current age.

Good point about my measuring my own genetic pool


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## noproblem (16 Jul 2021)

There's only one man who can answer your question. You do not want to meet him.


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## mtk (17 Jul 2021)

marry an accountant and you will feel like you have lived a very long life!


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## SPC100 (3 Aug 2021)

Just adding a few replies in another thread with interesting info



NoRegretsCoyote said:


> What no one on this thread has talked about is that life expectancy itself is highly variable.
> 
> Take a 65-year old Irish male. The median life expectancy is 18, so living to 83. But there is a 10% chance he will die before he is 71, but a 10% chance he will live beyond 93.
> 
> ...





Marc said:


> We use this one
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## Colm Fagan (4 Aug 2021)

How about a gypsy fortune-teller?
For what it's worth, even though my family health history isn't great, I reckon that I must plan outgoings and investment strategy for my ARF on the assumption that I could live for more than another couple of decades.


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## ClubMan (8 Aug 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> What happens if you go to work every day in that direction?  You will live only a couple of weeks.


Don't you recoup the years on the way home?


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## DARKMATTERS (8 Aug 2021)

What is certain is that we all die. What really matters is how you have lived not how long have you lived.


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## noproblem (8 Aug 2021)

DARKMATTERS said:


> What is certain is that we all die. What really matters is how you have lived not how long have you lived.


Speak for yourself


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## Brendan Burgess (8 Aug 2021)

ClubMan said:


> Don't you recoup the years on the way home?


Only if you face the same direction going home that you did on the way out.


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## SPC100 (10 Sep 2021)

@Dave Vanian posted this nice data source in another thread showing historic and predicted life expectancy changes





__





						Ireland Life Expectancy 1950-2022
					

Chart and table of Ireland life expectancy from 1950 to 2022.  United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.




					www.macrotrends.net


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## Cervelo (10 Sep 2021)

jpd said:


> Your best guide to how long you will live is how long did your parent, uncles and aunts and grand-parents live?


This is what I've done and have come up with a semi rough guess of mid seventies

I first of all looked at my own medical history, nothing major there except that I am suffering from high blood pressure, I've always had elevated blood pressure but in the last couple of years it's been creeping higher and higher to the point where last year I've started on medication 
I then looked at my personal life choices and the very hedonistic life that I had chosen to live and for the most part still do
But it was when I looked into my parents background and the issues they had or their siblings had is where the real shocker was
Heart disease and cancer are rampant to the tune of out of ten brothers and sisters only two have made it past seventy five 
and since the early noughties it has started in my generation of cousins

And that ladies and gentlemen is the main reason why I retired at the tender age of forty four!!


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## NoRegretsCoyote (10 Sep 2021)

I looked at probability of dying in and by a certain age in this post, with a chart.



> Take a 65-year old Irish male. The median life expectancy is 18, so living to 83. But there is a 10% chance he will die before he is 71, but a 10% chance he will live beyond 93.


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## noproblem (10 Sep 2021)

On Saturday evening and if Mayo haven't won the All Ireland, I think it might be time for the good Lord to do the needful on Moi. I'm saying no more, as I know full well some of you would be delighted if it doesn't happen.


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## Baby boomer (11 Sep 2021)

noproblem said:


> On Saturday evening and if Mayo haven't won the All Ireland, I think it might be time for the good Lord to do the needful on Moi. I'm saying no more, as I know full well some of you would be delighted if it doesn't happen.


Wonder what's the life expectancy of that one fellow remaining from the 1951 Mayo team?


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## noproblem (12 Sep 2021)

Baby boomer said:


> Wonder what's the life expectancy of that one fellow remaining from the 1951 Mayo team?


I have no idea, but that's not a very nice comment.


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## Baby boomer (12 Sep 2021)

My apologies.  No offence intended.  Sometimes, the thumbs outpace the brain.


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