# COVID 19 : the fallout



## fistophobia (28 Mar 2020)

What do people think will be the fallout from all this?
How ill it be financed?
I can see some kind of solidarity tax, and the next budget will be painful.
We are all socialists now.


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## Oisin19 (28 Mar 2020)

Wealth taxes and corporations paying their fair share I’d imagine.


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## noproblem (28 Mar 2020)

If it starts to soften before June the fallout won't be anything like if it continues on from that. After June, the longer it continues the financial fallout may be catastrophic but in poker terms, we're all in at that stage.


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## PencilPlate (6 Apr 2020)

Could the tax rates change, perhaps before a normal budget in October for the next year?


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## Purple (6 Apr 2020)

Fergal19 said:


> Wealth taxes and corporations paying their fair share I’d imagine.


Wealthy people paying their fair share? Are you proposing reductions in taxes on them?
I suspect that given the need the State has for money the rich will have to continue to shoulder an unfairly large proportion of taxation but I do admire your spirit of fairness.


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## allaround (6 Apr 2020)

I would imagine a fair and honest discussion on the shape of our health services?


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## Laughahalla (6 Apr 2020)

allaround said:


> I would imagine a fair and honest discussion on the shape of our health services?


Will be interesting to see when CV is gone if GP's will continue with not sending people to accident and emergency for non accidents and non emergencies or will they go back to sending people to accident and emergency for non accident and non emergency conditions.


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## Drakon (6 Apr 2020)

Within a month of government formation there will be an emergency budget. Fortunately the economy had been flying so we’ll be in a good position to borrow.


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## Purple (6 Apr 2020)

Laughahalla said:


> Will be interesting to see when CV is gone if GP's will continue with not sending people to accident and emergency for non accidents and non emergencies or will they go back to sending people to accident and emergency for non accident and non emergency conditions.


It will also be interesting to see if doctors in A&E departments start actually doing their jobs properly and treat people and send them home rather than admitting them to hospital so that they can be discharged by someone else the following day.


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## Purple (6 Apr 2020)

Drakon said:


> Within a month of government formation there will be an emergency budget. Fortunately the economy had been flying so we’ll be in a good position to borrow.


You're joking, right?


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## Leo (6 Apr 2020)

allaround said:


> I would imagine a fair and honest discussion on the shape of our health services?



Unfortunately I just can't see that happening. Too many parties involved who will still prioritise looking after their own interests and I see no prospect of a complete overhaul with a focus on better outcomes for patients and value for money.


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## allaround (6 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> Unfortunately I just can't see that happening. Too many parties involved who will still prioritise looking after their own interests and I see no prospect of a complete overhaul with a focus on better outcomes for patients and value for money.



It has to happen, ICU beds being just on strand of a crippled service....


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## Leo (6 Apr 2020)

allaround said:


> It has to happen, ICU beds being just on strand of a crippled service....



It had to happen years ago, it didn't....and every time any change was attempted, the same old parties all just put their hands out for more money or better terms. I haven't seen or heard anything lately that suggests it will be any different this time. 

What information do you have to suggest we had insufficient ICU beds to meet demand before COVID-19 arrived? If pre-COVID-19 we had sufficient ICU beds to cope with the potential COVID-19 peak, that would have been a massive waste of money.


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## allaround (6 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> It had to happen years ago, it didn't....and every time any change was attempted, the same old parties all just put their hands out for more money or better terms. I haven't seen or heard anything lately that suggests it will be any different this time.
> 
> What information do you have to suggest we had insufficient ICU beds to meet demand before COVID-19 arrived? If pre-COVID-19 we had sufficient ICU beds to cope with the potential COVID-19 peak, that would have been a massive waste of money.



It's well reported that we have insufficient icu beds, DOH 2018 service capacity review recommended 430 beds (based on pre covid19), thus we've only about 50% of ICU consultants we require coupled with dated bed stock and isolation facilities usually occupied by patients with anti biotic resistant infections, increasing ICU beds to 450 is not COVID linked but HSE capacity reviews and other reports/medical experts have concurred with this view


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## Drakon (6 Apr 2020)

Purple said:


> You're joking, right?


Ahhh no, not at all. It’s been well reported in the media. 
The current Budget 2020 from October 2020 is now complete rubbish. That was based on surpluses every year for the next few years. 
instead we’re facing a contraction of 8% this year alone.


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## Purple (6 Apr 2020)

allaround said:


> It's well reported that we have insufficient icu beds, DOH 2018 service capacity review recommended 430 beds (based on pre covid19), thus we've only about 50% of ICU consultants we require coupled with dated bed stock and isolation facilities usually occupied by patients with anti biotic resistant infections, increasing ICU beds to 450 is not COVID linked but HSE capacity reviews and other reports/medical experts have concurred with this view


Yes, because of the issues Loe highlighted. We spend more than enough on our Public Healthcare system but the people who work in it, through their resistance to change, cause a large proportion of it to be wasted. They are the reason for the lack of beds, the people on trolleys and premature deaths.
Every health Minister and government for the last 30 years can't have been incompetent, corrupt and/or ideologically bankrupt.


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## Purple (6 Apr 2020)

Drakon said:


> Ahhh no, not at all. It’s been well reported in the media.
> The current Budget 2020 from October 2020 is now complete rubbish. That was based on surpluses every year for the next few years.
> instead we’re facing a contraction of 8% this year alone.


Yes, but the national debt is massive and still increasing. Just how much more should we sell out our children and grandchildren in order to avoid facing the consequences of our own greed and stupidity? 
We need to do the things we needed to do 10 years ago; broaden the tax base and proportionally reduce the taxes on wealth creation (work) by having things like water charges and property tax but I refer you to my previous comment about stupidity and greed and add selfishness.


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## Leo (6 Apr 2020)

allaround said:


> DOH 2018 service capacity review recommended 430 beds



Early in the year it was reported we had a total of 255 ICU beds, on March 22nd it was reported that 173 of those were unoccupied.


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## Drakon (6 Apr 2020)

Purple said:


> Yes, but the national debt is massive and still increasing. Just how much more should we sell out our children and grandchildren in order to avoid facing the consequences of our own greed and stupidity?


The COVID-19 crisis is not of our making.


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## Leo (6 Apr 2020)

Drakon said:


> The COVID-19 crisis is not of our making.



The mess our finances were in before it were though.


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## Drakon (6 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> The mess our finances were in before it were though.


That was a decade ago, move on. 
There’s a new crisis. Unemployment is at 17%, even higher than the last mess. 
It’s gotta be fixed or we’re goosed.


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## Leo (6 Apr 2020)

Drakon said:


> That was a decade ago, move on.



What? You mean we had our national debt under control before COVID-19 kicked in?

Had we taken tough decisions to address issues like national debt while the economy was purring along, we'd be in a position to recover much more quickly from the current crisis.


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## Drakon (6 Apr 2020)

No, I mean the economy was healthy up to a month ago and we’re better placed to survive this crisis then we were the last.


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## allaround (6 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> Early in the year it was reported we had a total of 255 ICU beds, on March 22nd it was reported that 173 of those were unoccupied.



Fair point though a snapshot in time figures are unhelpful at times given they do not take into account those who could benefit from ICU through cancellations (surgery waiting lists) and/or lack of key staff to run these units and other factors. If a report and clinical experts recommend increasing icu beds with evidenced based reports I'll side with them.


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## Purple (7 Apr 2020)

Drakon said:


> The COVID-19 crisis is not of our making.


What he said;


Leo said:


> The mess our finances were in before it were though.


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## Purple (7 Apr 2020)

Drakon said:


> No, I mean the economy was healthy up to a month ago and we’re better placed to survive this crisis then we were the last.


No it wasn't. We were riding a wave of Corporation Tax receipts which is as unsustainable as the wave of taxes we got from the property bubble. Our national debt was increasing, our tax base was far to narrow and despite those tax receipts and the massive amounts of money we spend on it our healthcare system was rubbish. Basically we were continuing to mortgage our children's future to live beyond our means today. That means that there was no spare capacity to deal with this crisis.


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## Drakon (7 Apr 2020)

Never a borrower or a lender be?


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## Drakon (7 Apr 2020)

Reports that unemployment has hit 25% already.


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## Purple (7 Apr 2020)

Drakon said:


> Never a borrower or a lender be?


I can think of a few more apt Shakespearean quotes for our current situation, even another one from Hamlet; Foul deeds will rise, Though all the earth overwhelm them, to men's eyes. (not sure if that's quite correct).


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## Leo (7 Apr 2020)

allaround said:


> Fair point though a snapshot in time figures are unhelpful at times given they do not take into account those who could benefit from ICU through cancellations (surgery waiting lists) and/or lack of key staff to run these units and other factors. If a report and clinical experts recommend increasing icu beds with evidenced based reports I'll side with them.



I got lucky with the reports and that week better supporting my argument, I know the situation is a lot different the vast majority of the time. I guess my point is we've known for years that we spend way more on health than many other countries, yet the system is still creaking and outcomes for the patients doesn't reflect that spend. 

Despite multiple attempts to improve, we just seem to spend more and more, and end up getting less. Until the focus switches from 'we need X more of Y resource', to 'we need to get better value for money', the easy political fix will continue to be throwing more money at the problem, and that never fixes it.


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## blueband (7 Apr 2020)

I would imagine when we get through this there will be a massive financial stimulus package worth trillions put in place by the eu and divided out to each member country. the usa will be doing likewise id say.


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## Purple (7 Apr 2020)

blueband said:


> I would imagine when we get through this there will be a massive financial stimulus package worth trillions put in place by the eu and divided out to each member country. the usa will be doing likewise id say.


Yep, same old same old; spending wealth which hasn't been created yet.


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## blueband (7 Apr 2020)

no choice really..they have to kick start the economy.


Purple said:


> Yep, same old same old; spending wealth which hasn't been created yet.


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## pablo123 (9 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> I got lucky with the reports and that week better supporting my argument, I know the situation is a lot different the vast majority of the time. I guess my point is we've known for years that we spend way more on health than many other countries, yet the system is still creaking and outcomes for the patients doesn't reflect that spend.
> 
> Despite multiple attempts to improve, we just seem to spend more and more, and end up getting less. Until the focus switches from 'we need X more of Y resource', to 'we need to get better value for money', the easy political fix will continue to be throwing more money at the problem, and that never fixes it.
> [/QU


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## pablo123 (9 Apr 2020)

The HSE is top heavy, Too many people in office wear trying to pass the day while the front line staff are drained , That was before this crisis , If any government had the courage to admit that the health service is over staffed regarding all day e- mailers and short staffed on the front line or as it is now considered the last line of defense now is the time to do it and act on it , I speak from personal experience , Stay home , Stay safe .


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## Purple (9 Apr 2020)

pablo123 said:


> The HSE is top heavy, Too many people in office wear trying to pass the day while the front line staff are drained , That was before this crisis , If any government had the courage to admit that the health service is over staffed regarding all day e- mailers and short staffed on the front line or as it is now considered the last line of defense now is the time to do it and act on it , I speak from personal experience , Stay home , Stay safe .


That's the usual narrative but 35% of the people who work for the HSE are nurses and a good percentage of the decision makers are doctors. More importantly many of these people are decision blockers.
Nurses and doctors who resist standardisation of contracts, payroll and work practices can't them moan about the number of managers and clerical staff required to administer the inefficient and bloated system they insist isn't reformed.
The HSE is everyone who works in it. That includes the so called front line staff. If they are not proactively working to be part of the solution (without looking for a pay rise for every little change) then they are part of the problem and, collectively, they have blood on their hands. 
There's another thread in Letting off Steam about the moral difference between killing someone and letting someone die. That applies here to everyone in the HSE who resists reform and so is part of the waste which causes people to die.


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## pablo123 (16 Apr 2020)

The point is the HSE is overstaffed at an admin /office level, This is a fact, Two people told me just this week they were struggling to find something to do , Both on approx 30,000 euro per annum, That is just two people that I know of in one hospital The waste is rampant, If you work in the system and you can not see it thats fine but if the nurses can see it and by that I mean the people that would dealing with you and me if god forbid we were to get sick thats speaks volumes . Are you still comfortable with your statement regarding a pay rise for for every little change , The changes are beyond anything ever expected and everyone still turns up for work , My wife can not get the ppe required but will still get up at the dawn and go back in to face it day in day out , I hope you are staying safe and well .


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## Purple (16 Apr 2020)

pablo123 said:


> The point is the HSE is overstaffed at an admin /office level, This is a fact, Two people told me just this week they were struggling to find something to do , Both on approx 30,000 euro per annum, That is just two people that I know of in one hospital The waste is rampant, If you work in the system and you can not see it thats fine but if the nurses can see it and by that I mean the people that would dealing with you and me if god forbid we were to get sick thats speaks volumes . Are you still comfortable with your statement regarding a pay rise for for every little change , The changes are beyond anything ever expected and everyone still turns up for work , My wife can not get the ppe required but will still get up at the dawn and go back in to face it day in day out , I hope you are staying safe and well .


The reason that the HSE is overstaffed at an admin/office level is because reforms which would streamline clerical functions, reduce admin and reduce headcount are resisted by the "front line" people who are complaining about overstaffing.  
What is happening now is welcome but the whole HSE is creaking because of the gross structural inefficiencies within it. That is making everyone's job harder. This is like someone who sat on their ass for 20 years eating crisps and fried chicken and watching daytime TV suddenly having to run a marathon; the mind is now willing but 20 years of doing anything they can to avoid doing things properly means they have to drag their fat ass around behind them.


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## Baby boomer (16 Apr 2020)

Purple said:


> The reason that the HSE is overstaffed at an admin/office level is because reforms which would streamline clerical functions, reduce admin and reduce headcount are resisted by the "front line" people who are complaining about overstaffing.


I wonder?  Undoubtedly, the lack of reform at front line level does contribute somewhat.    But I would suggest the vast bulk of overstaffing at admin level is not directly related to the frontline stuff.  Look at it this way: if the frontline workers agreed immediately to every reform ever suggested, do you seriously think the back office admin would just melt away?   No chance!  They would just find another source of "makework" to pretend to fill the time.


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## Purple (17 Apr 2020)

Baby boomer said:


> I wonder?  Undoubtedly, the lack of reform at front line level does contribute somewhat.    But I would suggest the vast bulk of overstaffing at admin level is not directly related to the frontline stuff.  Look at it this way: if the frontline workers agreed immediately to every reform ever suggested, do you seriously think the back office admin would just melt away?   No chance!  They would just find another source of "makework" to pretend to fill the time.


Natural wastage over a 5 year period or so would account for most of the excess staff if functions were streamlined. Of course inefficient work practices at medical and nursing levels also contribute to gross waste.  The reason US Multinationals in the IT, medical and electronics sectors are as successful as they are is because they constantly seek to reduce waste and improve processes. If you walk around any such plant in Ireland and do it again 5 years later you'll see changes to production and technology in their manufacturing process but also big changed to their engineering, administration and management processes. Business model excellence is what makes businesses great. McDonalds are as successful as they are not because they sell the best burgers (they certainly don't)  but because they have the best business processes.


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## Wahaay (17 Apr 2020)

On a financial matter, I have spent this week trying to spread the risk of my company's cash reserves getting caught up in a banking collapse.
You have no idea how difficult it is to persuade fiancial institutions to accept hundreds of thousands of euros on deposit.
" Sorry, you're in the wrong sector " " We can't open an account because we can't risk our staff checking your AML documentation in person - we'll see you after the crisis  " " Your local branch is closed and you can't come into the city to open one at the main branch. "
It almost like the internet never existed.


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## odyssey06 (17 Apr 2020)

Examiner appointed to Cityjet airline.








						Interim examiner appointed to Dublin-based airline CityJet
					

The company has debts of €500 million.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## joe sod (2 May 2020)

Dan O Brien was on Brendan O Connor show this morning on radio talking about the very deep economic recession coming and wanting business people involved in the decision making process with regard to opening up the economy rather than just medics.

He made a very interesting point that nobody has made before, there was very little information on the 1918 spanish flu in the history books it was a mere footnote in the total 20th century events. Although there has been alot of retrospective importance put on it in the light of todays events. However the effects of the stock market crash of 1929 and the resulting economic depression were long lasting resulting in the ascent of Hitler and Stalin and the second world war which framed the rest of the 20th century.


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