# Where to get share trading recommendations and advice?



## colly (18 Dec 2006)

I know it is fobidden to discuss individual shares on AAM, but can anyone recommend a website/serice that makes share trading recommendations? I've just sold all my shares I had in my Employee Purchase Plan in my company as they do not have a good outlook for the future, and I am looking to reinvest.

Are there any reputable analysts that make a few recommendations on short/medium term buys? I'm sure that coming into the new year they will have their 'picks' and I'd like to be able to review a few analysts opinions and see what I think my money will be best spent. It's probably wise not to put all my eggs in one basket, but I've only got about 4k so I do not want to split it up too much. 

Lots of inveting houses rate each stock on Sell, Hold, Buy & Strong Buy - is there anywhere that colates all this information centrally? I remember a few years ago there was a guy who wrote a column in the Sunday Times Magazine and his predictions were extremely good, anyone know of someone similar? Basically I don't have the time or expertise to evaluate the market myself, but I'd like a few recommendations to point me in the right direction and go from there.

All advice appreciated
Thanks
Colly


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## ClubMan (18 Dec 2006)

Have you read the posting guideline which includes two possible outlets for that sort of info?



Bear in mind that no stock tipper can predict the future.


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## colly (18 Dec 2006)

Thanks Clubman, I hadn't seen that - I'll give www.sharewatch.com and www.fool.co.uk a look. Anyone know any other reputable sites.

If I was to rephraze my question a little, I'll ask: For the people on AAM that are active stock investors - how do you make your decisions on what to buy? Do you purely make your own guesses as to what you think will bring the best returns, or is there anywhere you belive gives good advice?


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## SlurrySlump (18 Dec 2006)

Colly. To be quite honest I don't think it's a good idea choosing shares based on website/newspaper tipsters. Having said that, every morning I read a summarised version of the "newspaper roundup" mainly to hear about M & A activity or other bits and pieces of information that might add some information to what I already know. It is also useful to read the daily company news to see information on annual results, interim results, dividend information, company share buybacks, and the most important news of all the company trading statement and outlook.
There are dozens of sites out there that can give you information. As I only deal with the U.K. market I can only recommend U.K. sites. P.M. me and I will give you a couple of useful sites to get you started.


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## colly (5 Jan 2007)

It's quite daunting trying to make decisions on the future of a company by yourself and then putting your hard earned money on the line with it.

I'd much perfer to see what the pro's put their money on and then see what I agree with.

How does everyone else make decisions on what share to buy?


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## ClubMan (5 Jan 2007)

Why not consider investing via a low charges index tracker tracking an index that fits with your preferred risk/reward profile?


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## JohnBoy (5 Jan 2007)

to be honest Clubman's suggestion is probably the most prudent one to follow. 4k is not really enough money to play individual names. go for a tracker and then begin to educate yourself. search this site for a list of investment books to read. also try to keep abrest of what is happening not just in the corporate world but in the wider economy too. try to run a paper portfolio for a period of time too.


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## charttrader (5 Jan 2007)

_ For the people on AAM that are active stock investors - how do you make your decisions on what to buy? Do you purely make your own guesses as to what you think will bring the best returns, or is there anywhere you belive gives good advice?

_You mentioned you had 4000 euro - TBH, you can't be actively investing/trading with that amount - is too small.  Could get more bang for you buck with leveraged trading (spread betting/futures etc) but that's not advisable if you're starting out. 

I would not go near newspapers or the likes for tips.  Anyone who relies on the likes will lose money. Tips are a bad idea in general.  Devise your own strategy - relying on someone elses won't work. Even if you're getting good tips, they may not suit your personality, you begin second guessing and chaos reigns.

If you don't fancy the work or uncertainty involved, stick your money in an index fund/ETF and watch it compound. Nothing wrong with that.  Can always come back to the idea of active investing etc, when you have more money and experience.


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## ClubMan (5 Jan 2007)

charttrader said:


> you can't be actively investing/trading with that amount - is too small.


You should also consider if you should be "actively" trading at all in the first place and if, perhaps, a buy and hold medium/long term strategy would be more appropriate. Rememver that actively trading arguably involves more risk of buying high and selling low as well as losing money on transaction charges (and also having to deal with the hassle of _CGT _on each disposal). Basically what sort of investment strategy and asset mix is most appropriate really depends on why you are investing the money (e.g. towards what goal(s) and over what timeframe(s)).


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## baby_tooth (5 Jan 2007)

cman is right, index fund.

think about it, it's in no tipsters interest to tell you whats going up, unless they want to manipulte the market to take profit and get out and need "fools" to sell to.

spread bet if you think you know your stuf...no tax or cgt.

etf to follow an index.

and mutual funds are similar to etf except preferable tax treatment.


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## baby_tooth (5 Jan 2007)

or you could always put it into property, its worked for ppl so far.


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## noel 2006 (5 Jan 2007)

I would agree with the advise above by Clubman that an index fund is a good way of investing. However in answer to the orginal question, over the years I have found Phoenix magazine a good source of share recommendations.  Not every issue will contain recommendations of shares to buy.


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## Gautama (7 Jan 2007)

colly said:


> how do you make your decisions on what to buy? Do you purely make your own guesses as to what you think will bring the best returns, or is there anywhere you belive gives good advice?


 
I use fundamental analysis.
You know that page in the business section of the Irish Times, or the Markets section of the Sunday Business Post, the page with the statistics of Irish Shares?
Well, I did up a spreadsheet a few years ago with all that info. I update it every so often with the latest share price, company earnings, etc. That way I'll get the up-to-date eps, p/e, peg, dy, etc. From this I can get a good comparison of a sector. So if I decide to buy a financial stock, I can compare AIB, BoI, Anglo, IFG and ILP. Starting with the p/e, see what stock is the best value for money, ie the share that's cheap relative to the others. Compare the other stats, see what's seems cheapest.
Also, keep an eye on the papers or stock tips from the the various brokers (http://www.rte.ie/business/brokerreports.html) for indicators.

* Moderator note: *discussion of specific share performance removed.


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## colly (19 Jan 2007)

Thanks guys, index funds look very interesting I'm going to look into them firther. Anyone have any tips on where to start?


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## colly (22 Jan 2007)

www.cramersez.com

This looks like a very imtersting site (ignore the terrible design) - its based on the predicitons of James Cramer - the host of a CNBC show called Mad Money - this is more the sort of thing I'm talking about.


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## Murt10 (22 Jan 2007)

noel 2006 said:


> I would agree with the advise above by Clubman that an index fund is a good way of investing. However in answer to the orginal question, over the years I have found Phoenix magazine a good source of share recommendations.  Not every issue will contain recommendations of shares to buy.



I also find The Pheonix very good.

As others have stated the one worry I would have with OP investing e4,000 is that it is only enough to invest in one or two shares. There is a fair chance that the share s/he will buy will crash and burn, especially if you are looking for growth, and they will be left with nothing.

I'd consider a tracker. 

WWW.III.CO.UK is a useful site where individual UK shares are discussed. Be very careful about anything you read from an anonomous poster. Yahoo is good for discussing US stocks. Both have free registration


Murt


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## charttrader (22 Jan 2007)

colly said:


> www.cramersez.com
> 
> This looks like a very imtersting site (ignore the terrible design) - its based on the predicitons of James Cramer - the host of a CNBC show called Mad Money - this is more the sort of thing I'm talking about.



Avoid like the plague.  Have you ever seen Mad Money? Type his name into YouTube and you'll be confronted by some pathetic spectacles indeed (Cramer blowing whistles, screaming 'buy', 'sell', animations of bulls and bears etc). It's a joke. Unfotunately, it's very popular and his stock picks tend to appreciate substantially as soon as he announces them. After Joe Public has driven up the price, the short sellers get shorting and the price drops again. Academic research has been done on Cramer's show, showing the daft fluctuations and heightened level of short interest in the immediate aftermath.

Other sites exist monitoring his picks.  Last time I checked, they were losing money.

There are hundreds of stock-tipping sites out there.  They're a great way of losing money.  Someone once said that tips are for waiters - he was right.  See [broken link removed]

Those of you not bothered enough to click that link - it was the same Jim Cramer who uttered those words...


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## room305 (22 Jan 2007)

charttrader said:


> Avoid like the plague.  Have you ever seen Mad Money?



Couldn't agree more. I'd heard about "Mr. Boo-yah" but never caught his show before until I was in the US recently and had occasion to check it out. Staggering beyond belief.

Speaking as one who has done so in the past, acting on tips always leads to the worst of investment behaviour - buying at peaks, momentum chasing etc. Worse again, you won't have the discipline or long term faith in the stock to hang on during rough patches (or alternately sell when you should).

At least if you make your own decisions you will only have yourself to blame in the end, rather than a perma-bull like Jim Cramer.


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## JohnBoy (23 Jan 2007)

I had heard that Mad Money had a lower than 40% success rate with its predictions. To be honest, almost any mass medium that pushes stock/sector recommendations is best avoided - by the time RTE/CNN/CNBC etc tell you what to buy it is too late.

For me there is only one financial publication worth reading - that is the FT. You could do worse than read the weekend FT every saturday (it is a good paper in addition to the financial coverage). They occasionally tip stocks but what they do best is provide the individual investor with an ongoing education in stock market & share valuation. 

To be honest, if you only have €4k by the time you find out about anything from the traditional sources it will be too late.


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## calderg1 (23 Jan 2007)

I follow Cramer's advice.  Yes, he does have quite the antics on his tv show, however look past that and you find someone who knows what he is doing.  I have been investing following his "buy" calls for sometime.  I have had many more winners than losers.  I use the www.cramersez.com site as well.  Not sure about design or anything else, but it is  informative and am glad to see that I am not the only one who goes there.


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## room305 (23 Jan 2007)

calderg1 said:


> I follow Cramer's advice.  Yes, he does have quite the antics on his tv show, however look past that and you find someone who knows what he is doing.  I have been investing following his "buy" calls for sometime.  I have had many more winners than losers.  I use the www.cramersez.com site as well.  Not sure about design or anything else, but it is  informative and am glad to see that I am not the only one who goes there.



Do you buy all of his recommendations? That's about three or four new stocks a week!

This  tracks his performance against a random stock picking monkey and so far he is losing.


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## JohnBoy (23 Jan 2007)

back to the original post...when you rationalise things it is difficult to imagine that anyone with a potential audience of millions can add real value to your stock picking decisions.

read some investment books, read the financial press and then begin to read some of the earnings reports from quoted companies online (from their investor relations websites). 

you do not have to spend hours disecting the report and accounts, but it is always illustrative to read the opening statement and then glance through the financial statements. you are unlikely to see anything here that no one else has, but you will, over time, generate an understanding of how the market views certain quoted companies and how it reacts to their results. 

relying on second-hand tips and share recommendations is unlikely to deliver serious returns.


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## Markjbloggs (23 Jan 2007)

JohnBoy said:


> back to the original post...when you rationalise things it is difficult to imagine that anyone with a potential audience of millions can add real value to your stock picking decisions..


 

Not sure I agree with this - take Cramer as an example, the guy is a moron and has an audience of millions, many of those are morons that will follow his "advice".  Stock picks then become self-fulfilling prophecies with some potential to boost non-Cramerite portfolios.


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## JohnBoy (23 Jan 2007)

Ok this is true to an extent - following the crowd can be lucrative, but by the time an individual investor (who is probably not watching CNBC all day) finds out what the market monkey is recommending on any given day, the share price probably already reflects this new news. A trader in a hedge fund or bank can react to these recommendations in seconds so a regular retail/private investor will probably be the last to buy.

It is no accident that in the fund management community, it is rare to see a genuinely successful manager share their stock tips with the general public on a regular basis. The talking heads that populate the financial news programmes are best ignored.


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## charttrader (23 Jan 2007)

Markjbloggs said:


> Not sure I agree with this - take Cramer as an example, the guy is a moron and has an audience of millions, many of those are morons that will follow his "advice".  Stock picks then become self-fulfilling prophecies with some potential to boost non-Cramerite portfolios.



This appears not to be the case, as websites exist to show that Cramer's picks are losing money.  Studies have shown that the short interest in Cramer's picks rises dramatically, with the stock enjoying a pop on announcement before being driven back down by shorts.  Other studies have shown that stocks being featured on cnbc in general rise beforehand before giving up their gains in the following days.  

Without getting caught up with Cramer too much, it's worth emphasising that every trader (and investor) of note will tell you that stock tipping is a losing game.  The following is an excerpt from www.turtletrader.com, the author puts it well.

"We must all know by now how worthless stock tips are, but the general public still hungers for the likes of David Faber and his Faber Report delivered to millions on CNBC. *Why would anyone think, for even a millisecond, that when David shares a stock tip with his guest, only three people are now in the know*: David Faber, the guest, and the person watching. What about the millions of other people glued to their sets? Most of whom also believe David is giving them the stock tip. Ah, the intimacy of television combined with our ability to suspend our disbelief. Don't laugh. This has been going on every day since the mid-1990s equity market explosion.


         We can only assume that everyone gets this great tip, calls their broker and buys? Actually this does happen. The market moves regularly when Faber speaks. However, the movement is always short term because Faber has no long term ability to move the market. Watching CNBC news in order to get the information needed to market decisions is useless. But *since trading is a zero-sum game, we selfishly hope millions continue to watch David Faber. Their trading losses from useless tips go directly to the winners".

*Newbies should consider that last sentence.  That's the reality.


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## Playdough (28 Jan 2007)

Colly,

I think other replies are correct when they say 4k is too little to build decent portfolio. 

One strategy you might consider is to look at Merrion Stockbrokers website. They have a suggested basket of ISEQ shares which has consistently outperformed the index. You could purchase 2/3 lines of stock from different sectors of the economy. Continue saving say 200-300 euro p.m. and reinvest your dividends, purchasing new line of stock annually and you should do okay.


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## Elphaba (1 Feb 2007)

Buy Sunday Times, Business section doing article on Day Trading this coming Sunday, in response to demand. Jill Kerbys weekly analysis on various consumer issues, banks etc. cuts through all the crap


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## room305 (12 Feb 2007)

Just in case anyone follows or is tempted to follow Jim Cramer's advice. These two quotes are fairly indicative of his "buy high and sell low" philosophy.
_
Having recommended tech stocks right up to the point the bubble burst, Cramer continues to recommend to his followers they remain long tech stocks as the Nasdaq slides from 5000 to below 1500._



			
				James J. Cramer said:
			
		

> You know I have been adamant that this is a new bull market.  You know  that I went on record blasting those Nasdaq 1500 sirens. But there are  still persistent emails from people asking me if this is just one more  big bear spike. To which I say, give me a break. Tape this checklist to your  forehead  if you can't remember it and nail-gun it to the bears in your firms and  households. It might put them out of their misery for good!



_Not sure what the catalyst was but having lost some 60% of its value from peak, Cramer turns bearish on the Nasdaq. He now frequently trumps about how he had the courage to be a Nasdaq bear when everyone else was bullish._


			
				James J. Cramer said:
			
		

> And unlike you, I have been pretty negative on tech for a  long time. I have not been on television saying I  would  load the boat up with tech.  At the beginning of the year, I  frowned  on a long QQQ strategy right in the face of a  proponent  of it on CNBC. I thought it foolish. *I am not someone who has advocated  riding tech all the way down from 5000 and am now telling you to get  out.*   The opposite is true. I am a credentialed tech bear and I am not going  to have it pinned on me that I just got bearish on tech, as so many  others  around me have. I made great money last year betting against tech and  was  vocal about it. I told you as late as yesterday to take those prices we  had in the rally and reposition.  Look, often it doesn't seem  worth  it to go through the aggravation or the heat I am getting for this  negativity.  I swear, unfortunately, that it is much easier to be Joe Battipaglia or  Abby Joseph Cohen or Tom Galvin than it is to be me. They get credit  every  time it goes up and they look like white knights every time it goes  down.  They seem like the friend of capital. When I say sell I seem like the  enemy.   Objectively, in the real world of professional money, however, that is  wrong. These people are, in the real world of big-time performance  management,  regarded as glad-handers who would have annihilated you if you listened  to them. I am from the real world of big-time money management. I'd  rather  be right and make money than be wrong and make everybody feel happy.


He not only manages to lose his followers a lot of money, he frequently lies about his positions and achievements as well.


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