# 32 year old, hopes to semi retire by 40



## peterpanics

Age: 32
   Spouse’s/Partner's age: 34

   Annual gross income from employment or profession: *75000 *
Type of employment: *Private sector, IT *

   Annual gross income of spouse: *35000*
Type of employment: *Self-employed  *(mostly flexible hours)

In general are you:
(a) spending more than you earn, *No*
or
(b) saving? *Yes

*Rough estimate of value of home: *None (Renting €1300 a month between us)*
Amount outstanding on your mortgage: *N/A

*Other borrowings – car loans/personal loans etc *None* (Mostly use public transport and will keep current car for as long as possible)

Do you pay off your full credit card balance each month: *Yes*

Savings and investments: 

*€95,000 in savings accounts
**€65,000 in unit funds
€8,000 in company shares*
Plan to start buying shares (mostly ETFs) from now on through broker rather than increasing unit funds. All of above in just over 6 years of saving, before that was paying off college loans.

Do you have a pension scheme: *Yes (**€45,000 total, maxing out with 20% of income AVC in DC pension this year, plan same for next years depending on tax changes upcoming)*

Ages of children: *None* (planning for 2)

   Life insurance: *None*

_What specific question do you have or what issues are of concern to you? _

We work and rent in Dublin currently with jobs secure hopefully for next couple of years and beyond. My own expenses are currently below €25,000 per year and my spouse about the same. I am saving, investing and adding to my pension with the rest each month. 

My dream is we buy somewhere in the countryside with a few acres about 2 or 3 years from now (nothing too fancy) and I try to become more and more self sufficient in our spare time. For as long as needed I would continue to work and save hard, increasing investments and paying down the hopefully small mortage with big deposit ready between us.

If I continued to save and invest around €35,000 per year, do you think it is realistic that I could be semi-retired by 40? My spouse would continue to work because she loves it whereas I would hope to become a hobby farmer/gardener/child-minder and also do some part-time work to bring in a small income. I don't share the details of how much I save each year with my friends but they generally laugh when I say I plan to semi-retire at 40, talking about expenses such as children ahead of me that will make it impossible. I am pretty frugal and very happy with the standard of living my current spendings allows me.

I plan to see an independent financial advisor in New Year, waiting until then to see what changes in tax and pensions are there after budget. Do anyone see a big flaw in this plan? It is the pension contribution gap in between 40 and 60 that I think might be the weak point. I started working when I was 15 and paid my own way through college with work and loans. Things have changed in the meantime so maybe I am underestimating the costs of bringing up 2 children being compatible.

Thanks in advance for any feedback.


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## Purple

It really depends on the standard of living you wish to have for you and your children over the next 20 years. You are spending €50k a year and saving €60k. That is impressive but children are expensive and if you want them to have nice holidays etc then you will find it hard to keep your costs down. 
I do think your timing is great; property should start to hit the bottom of the curve over the next 3-5 years and international markets should start to bottom out… soon(?)... so your investments should show good returns over the next 10 years (your home should not be counted as one of them). 
If I was you I would be looking for a situation where I was living off income from investments rather than eating the core amount but the whole thing is really down to your own expectations for the future.


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## Gervan

Don't be deterred. Costs of children can be anything, but if you are self-sufficient in veg, chickens etc, and they have entertainment / occupation on the smallholding and don't demand overseas holidays, you can do it. It's a much better life than 9 to 5.
I expect state pension to fall, and don't think private pensions will give big returns for some time to come, so wouldn't worry about that side of things.


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## peterpanics

Thanks for the responses.

My guess about expected standard of living is equivalent of €60k in today's money for family spendings each year. This would take into account additional expenses of 2 children and also being nearly self-sufficient (nothing too extreme) and paying less in remaining mortage at that stage plus property taxes than rent currently. We now have 2+ foreign holidays per year and in future would plan maybe 1 family holiday plus there would be some school trips.

I would hope to earn about €20k working part-time doing something I enjoy without as much stresss and for my wife to continue making around €35k. The rest of life's one-off costs and shortfall in expenses versus income, I would hope to take gradually from investment returns without depleting the pot too much before full retirement (still would plan to work on smallholding after 60+).

By 40 we would hope for the following (had to edit downwards as my first attempt too optimistic!)

€160,000 in private pensions (hope financial advisor will tell me if this makes sense or not)
€200,000+ in investments
€50,000 emergency cash fund
€150,000 paid into house (that is still the big unknown, what you will have to pay in 2 or 3 years for a modest 3 bedroom house with ~3 acres from which you can drive to Dublin in less than an hour)


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## Complainer

I'd have to say that it doesn't seem like a realistic objective to me, unless you are going to be effectively dropping out of society all together. Think about kids education costs, college costs, clothes costs, entertainment costs. If you are living in the sticks, you'll certainly need a car.


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## cancan

Hmm - a next egg of 410,000 at 40. (will leave out money in house as it technically is not useable and ignore tax for simplicity)
Lets say you live till 80 - ignoring further gains, you are looking at being able withdraw an average of 10K per year if you live until 80, while depleting the principal which would probably erode possible gains.

It's very dependent on your lifestyle, but I am not sure if an amount of that size would be very useful in the long run.

While it could be done, you'd have to realise that it would mean a very frugal lifestyle for you and yours.

Personally, I would think it would be tough.

For comparison, a garda pension would be worth and eyewatering 1 million euro on the open market - at the earliest a guard can retire is 50. Know any retired guards and their lifestyles for comparison sake?

You are hoping to do that 10 years earlier with half the amount of money.

I really do think that retirement costs are much underestimated by many, but admire what you have done to date.


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## peterpanics

Thanks Complainer, I do welcome you adding doubts as I have a few myself. It is the cost of kids that I am most unsure about. 

I come from a small family and there didn't seem to be very big expenses when we grew up (I am sure my parents felt differently at times that I cannot remember). As mentioned earlier, I started working when I young (weekends and summers) and from then on helped cover myself while still at home, paying 1/4 of wages to parents for my upkeep. At 18, I left home and paid for myself through college and everything else. I don't plan to be as strict with my own children but I think I learned some good lessons for later in life and I was happy.

We don't plan to drop out of society, in a way I plan to join it a bit more when I don't have to work so hard. We have pretty good standard of living with current spendings of just under €50k a year. Current car was paid for with cash and would plan same in future. We would still plan to cover most of the expenses in wages each year. My wife especially would continue on as she has been with just a different commute than now for the days she had to work outside of home.


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## peterpanics

Thanks cancan. I guess the answer is that it is possible to do this but tough and would of course not suit everybody. Maybe I will play around with the numbers and see how working for a few more years as now past 40 looks. I know I would be happy with the lifestyle but wouldn't want rest of family to be cursing the starting of my experiment too early later on. Plenty of time in between for pulse checks with hopeful assumption there is job security that far into future. I don't know any retired guards myself.


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## Yaffle

I have 2 young kids, a third on the way and we live on a farm. So far they are very cheap, I have no childcare costs, they wear second hand clothes (new shoes is the only extravagence), they are/were breastfed, we use washable nappies, no tv and on a farm there is no need for other entertainment costs (even when I plan to go places they want to stay and help on the farm instead). I am saving for education,  college expenses and any medical treatment any of us might need as I have heard that children get a lot more expensive as they get older (I do expect them to eat a lot due to all the fresh air and work). 

But if your wife can still earn E35k and you E20k part time that's a lot more than some people will ever earn and you'll still be able to save into a pension.

Aim for it and if you don't get there or decide it's not for you, you won't have lost anything but at least you'll have the choice. I think the quality of life is priceless (most of the time).


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## peterpanics

Thanks Yaffle, I used to spend parts of summer on a farm when I was young and very good memories.

I will continue to aim for next stage anyway and buy somewhere with a bit of land in a few years and gradually explore what is possible with the growing nest egg as back-up.


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## deadlyduck

I am having some difficulty reconciling your figures but may be misunderstanding something:

Your combined gross income 110000
*Less:*
Pension [net cost]              (  8000)
Tax                                  (27000) [Note 1]
Net post tax income             75000
*Less:*
Annual expenses 2 @ €25K    (50000) [Note 2]
Net disposable income           25000


*Note 1:* 


I have deducted a pension of €15000 off your gross and calculated PAYE etc on the net combined income of €95000.
I assumed €72800 SRCOP and approx €6000 in combined tax credits.
If you were both Class A for PRSI (which you're not as your wife is self employed) you'd be paying PAYE/PRSI/Health contribution/Income levy of c. €27000
*Note 2: *

It wasn't clear if the annual expenses include/ exclude the mortgage. I'm assuming that they do in fact include the mortgage. I'm also assuming that they include the cost of holidays, food, clothes, car running costs/ public transport, any health/income protection insurance premia, entertainment, utilities etc that you could reasonbably expect to incur in a year.


The upshot of all this is that it 'only' leaves you scope for saving €25000 per annum so I am unclear as to whether you can realistically anticipate saving €35000 pa unless the income values are scheduled to rise or expenses drop.


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## peterpanics

deadlyduck: I will try and give a simple overview later in week about current savings over a year. There are some other factors that boost things further for me:

- I can add around 10% of pay to pension plus 20% AVC each year, maxing this out for 2008 and 2009.
- Certain percentage of pay can be used to buy company shares in tax efficient way as long as I don't sell for 3 years, I have been doing this for long time now and selling when time is up.
- Certain percentage of gross pay can be used to buy company shares each month with a 15% top-up on that, I sell these off usually at regular intervals.
- Some other perks to job

We use 'Separate Assessment' option.

The current annual expenses of <€50000 I mention includes the €1300 per month rent and everything else. Our projected future expenses would include a hopefully small mortgage. I think scope for some reductions on current spending if needed.

Thanks


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## lmipwis

Hi,

A good book to read on this is 'Trading Paces' by Michael Kelly. He and his wife swapped to the same sort of lifestyle you are considering.

Re. finding a property / land in your price bracket, I think you will find what you are looking for, without a mortgage. As an example, here's a decent house on 17 acres of land, with an asking price of €200k. It went for auction in N. Ireland about 2 weeks ago for GBP140k (approx Euro164k) and failed to sell. www.daft.ie/1398995 Its probably too far from Dublin for commuting, but just as an example of what you can get now for that kind of money....

I think there are 3 key issues for you:
1. Generating enough income from investments you make with your savings - strong financial advice needed.
2. You are planning a family. Will your wife be happy to go back to work, with potentially 2 hours commute, leaving small children at home? This is not an easy thing to do when you're in the situation - hormones and the mothering instinct kick in! Could you manage without her income for a few years, for example?
3. Banks don't generally lend mortgages for less than €150k; i.e. you can't get a €50k mortgage. So you are either going to have to buy outright with cash, get a personal loan over a shorter timeframe, go for a more expensive property, keep your savings and take out mortgage for higher amount (using savings to pay it each month) etc 

I wish you both all the best of luck!


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## Steve D

You have done well to save so much in such a short time.

You need to take proper advice because there are so many variables in this that will affect the outcome, such as mix of assets, investment returns will vary from asset to asset, inflation, income tax, capital gains tax, and how much risk you are willing to take. You will not be able to draw your pension until you reach retirement age.

To give you a rough idea of how much you need, as a general rule of thumb, I would expect to make a gross real return of approx 4.5% as an average in the long term so, for example, in order to have a gross income from investments of €45,000 you would need to have capital of €1m, excluding your home.


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## peterpanics

Thanks Imipwis for the tip about 'Trading Places', got it from the library now and enjoying so far. Also interesting daft.ie link and details about the auction. My wife insists she would want to keep working and has some flexabilty about times and tele-working options for parts of week, I agree though she could change her mind later and want to take a few years out when we see the reality of being parents. The option of buying with no mortgage is an interesting one, I had avoided saving just into cash and pension and I've increased my euro cost averaging into unit funds since last late Autumn and plan to buy ETFs mainly from now on through broker. I have done some reading about asset allocation but my multi-stage plan makes it more complicated.

I agree Steve D I do need proper professional advice, was going to go late this year or early next but maybe should go sooner. I have this imaginary finishing line of 40 but by that time I probably won't have enough invested to cover the shortfall in my guess of expenses versus income. I will take it one year at a time anyway saving towards part 1 in next 3 years of a house in the countryside. I do hope we can still save into private pensions at slower rate during the semi-retirement stage but maybe for that I need to push out the plan to 45 and increase the pot.


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## mtk

firstly well done on saving so well
just some food for thought 
1) re downshifting wil it be that easy to downshift- some employers at senior level only want full time employees etc. you may have this all thought out but just asking!
2)woud your wife be happy to keep wokring as normal if you downshift
3) I think 410k by 40 is realistic ( dont count the house as some one else said). I did it myself. 
4) Not sure i would touch ETF unless you have great confidence which after the last year.....well obviously up to you 
5) To me the key is whether you can obtain post down size income . if you can happy days with the 400k buffer


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## lmipwis

Just an idea - if you found a place with more than 2 acres, say go for circa 15 acres, you could set up allotments and rent them to people. It would also be very sociable and could give an 'audience' to sell any excess eggs, produce, fruit, jams etc that you have. More info at http://www.allotments.ie/ I guess location would be key and you'd also need to crunch some numbers to see if this is viable!!


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## Firehead

Peter, I know where you're coming from, we're thinking along the same lines as yourself, we're already living in the ideal place with enough space to go the whole self-sufficient route, we've actually started already on the veg growing, living quite frugely etc.

We're both working full-time at the moment but hope to start a family within the next year to two years, we're at the stage in life now to know our priorites and we are in the position of having a relatively small mortage on a large house in a beautiful rural location.  The decreases in both our salaries in recent months have really spurned us on in our ambitions to opt out of the rat race.  Best of luck, you go for it.


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## peterpanics

mtk, I have a plan after downshift for ~€20k income with part-time work but all could change in the next 8 years. My wife would like to continue working as now if possible, about two days a week in the office and rest at home, she enjoys it a lot. 

 Imipwis, the idea of allotments is a nice one.

 Firehead, good to hear your story about being closer to the finish line than us.

 Thanks for all the replies, I might update about the numbers and progress in 2010. Always possible that one or both of us could be out of work in next years or other events conspire to delay the plan.


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## bananas

Just a comment on the previous posts, I think you've done marvellous work to be so financially secure so far, I admire your ability to plan for the future.  
I think what I want to say is to not be too rigid, don't want to be pessimistic either, but build a bit of flexibility in because it can be a difficult fall if something goes wrong in your plan.
Best wishes


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## z107

This is pretty much what I have done. Here are some observations you might be interested in:

1. Why wait until you're 40? - if you can't (or won't) do it now, you probably will never do it. It really is a state of mind whether you can do it or not. You need a healthy regard for money, but it isn't, surprisingly the controlling factor. You may be over concentrating on the finance aspect.

2. The lifestyle change is huge. Don't expect that you'll suddenly have a carefree life, it doesn't work that way. Your commute/city stresses will be replaced by country ones. (All my friends are in Dublin, no one ever visits us etc, etc...)

3. Being self sufficient is expensive  and a lot of work.

Best laid plans of mice and men...


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## minion

I think you are dreaming if you are thinking of retiring at 40 on those figures.

Speak to a financial adviser.  You'll find that you need a hell of a lot more if you want to live on that.  Perhaps it might be just doable if you continue as you are until you are 50.


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## Gorbashow

It really depends on your life style. 

Here is something from me:

1. Dunno what company you work for, but you might consider not to sell shares atm. Recession is not something that will stay forever. Economy goes along sinusoid. My opinion is within 8years global economy will enter upper part of this sinusoid. Might be better to sell them in that time.

2. You might also consider investing some part of this free 35k a year (10-20%) into more risky assets: shares are still cheap atm and 8 years is just enough time to get some real value on them (but i would advise maybe some growing markets funds (china market seems really strong and full of potential)).

3. Definitely talk to some good, experienced financial advisor about how  to invest the money.

Just to roughly estimate:

You have:

*€95,000 in savings accounts
**€65,000 in unit funds
€8,000 in company shares*
-------------------------------
*168k *

You can save additional:

*8 x 35k = 280k*

That would give you around *450k* when you are 40 (with assumption intrest on the savings will be equal to inflation).
Not counting pension in.

I'd say it is not hard to get 5% after tax from your savings(mixing different types of assets) which will be roughly about *20k* E a year.
Adding to that your wife's job - *35k* E will end up in around *50k* a year after tax.
Adding your let's say *10k* after tax a year from your part-time job will move you to roughly *60k* a year after tax.

Mortgage on house will be probably around the same what you are paying renting.

In my opinion, it is possible for you to retire at 40. It will be harder probably when kids get older, but it is very possible.

/sorry for any grammar/spelling mistakes in advance. I'm not native.


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## peterpanics

Hello SPC100,

I have calmed down a bit since but still have the same plan for now.  Adding gradually to our investments and pension, keeping an eye on land  prices and getting some experience when we can with that lifestyle via  relations. Some of our expenses have dropped like rent since the  original posts and some small increases in income to just about cancel  out the tax changes.

We now have the following:

€85,000 in cash savings (Rabo and Northern Rock mainly)
€84,000 in unit funds (Rabo and Quinn Life)
€26,000 in shares (nominee account)
€95,000 in Defined Contribution pension (maxing out AVC options for now  and waiting for updates about tax changes from 2012 onwards)

I am thinking of opening a foreign bank account soon for at least part  of our savings, just in case something big happens. Also I am looking  towards share certs or Crest/Euroclear instead of having shares in a  nominee account, especially if I sell off the Quinn Life funds and move  more towards shares instead. I do worry about the unknowns such as an  Irish default or us leaving the eurozone and how it might impact us  personally.

Why the wait longer before taking the leap? I think it would be better  to keep our current saving rates and gradually move towards the planned  lifestyle, scaling down slowly with my current employers if possible.  The next big step will be buying land to start working with part-time, I  am very interested in Permaculture.


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## jpd

Gorbashow said:


> I'd say it is not hard to get 5% after tax from your savings(mixing different types of assets) which will be roughly about *20k* E a year.



This isn't as easy as it sounds - safe(?) investments such as 10 year government bonds (French/German) yield around 3.3% gross whilst blue chip companies dividend yields are around 3-4%. These are gross and you have to take into account inflation.

Of course, there are riskier investments ie Irish Gov't bonds pay 8% currently.


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## Lamorna

Hi Peterpanics,

Well done for saving so much!

I think your plan is do-able. If you can earn 20KE working p/t you'll still be earning more than many people who work f/t!

On a farm, you will regularly face big expenses such as mending the fences; pruning the trees (if you have any trees); maintaining any buildings (barns, sheds for equipment, garage for tractors etc.) in good condition. It can add up, and it's hard work: my granfather fell off a tree while pruning it when he was 73 years old and he dislocated his shoulder! 1 stay in hospital to do an IRM and check that he didn't have concussion or anything else...

Although you called this thread 'retire at 40', you might end up working longer than office workers: my grandfather only retired as a farmer when he was 76. He couldn't afford to do it before, and he had to make do with a very small pension. 

My big worry would be medical bills, first with children, and then for the two of you as you get older. Cancer treatment, for example, is very expensive. 

Another worry would be paying for your kids' education. You managed to work through uni but you were lucky. I tried to do the same in Paris when I was young and I ended up dropping out: one month I just had not earned enough to pay the rent and that was the end of my studies. I resumed studying in the UK but had to give up because I was working very long hours (+ I had 7 housemoves in 2 years). I don't think I'll be able to start again, because of the £9K fees.

It sounds like a good plan otherwise. Congratulations again for saving so much. So many people seem to be 'born to shop'. It's a shame there aren't more people like you!


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## Guns N Roses

Check out the following link for costs of raising a child.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/feb/23/cost-raising-child


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## Nige

Guns N Roses said:


> Check out the following link for costs of raising a child.
> 
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/feb/23/cost-raising-child


 

I'd take that "report" with a pinch of salt.

It includes £54k for childcare, which the OP won't have. It has another £11k for babysitting, which seems high to me. It also includes the cost of buying junior their first car!

Children are expensive, but not necessarily as expensive as many vested interests would have you believe.


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## peterpanics

Hi Lamorna,

Thanks for the comments. Working through college was tough at times alright. It is true that medical costs could be much higher in the future than I expect now while in good health. I like the idea of physical work currently but it could be very different in 20 years time for sure, maybe I would miss the office even later on. Lots of small steps to come over the next years hopefully to figure it all out.

I checked out the Guardian link, categories are interesting but I agree with Nige.


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## mammyof2

Hi Peterpanics

I've been following this thread with interest and commend you on your planning and for thinking through so thoroughly how you want to live your life and working to achieve it!

A couple of things that strike me

- I am amazed how at negative many of the posts are towards your suggestion. If your estimate that you and your wife can earn approx 55k per annum after you have downsized and 'retired' is correct, with low or no childcare expenses, low or no mortgage and a good pot of savings, that puts you in an extremely fortunate position. We are a family of two adults and two kids with a very high mortgage, very high childcare costs and lots of the costs associated with both working full time outside the home (travel, work clothes, etc etc) and manage very well on a net income of 65k. Without a mortgage or childcare costs, I reckon we would be comfortable on 25k net. Your 55k gross (probably about 35 - 40k net?) would therefore be an annual fortune!

- You are basing your planning on the assuption that your wife will want to work more or less full time and you will want to spend a significant proportion of your time caring for your children. That's fine, but I would not make a final assessment of whether this lifestyle will work for you both in the medium to long term until you actually have your first child. Childrearing, particularly if you are relatively isolated geographically, can be an exhausting and thankless task and it takes a particular type of person to find personal fulfillment in making this their main life project. I don't mean this as negatively as it sounds - having children is also incredibly joyful and life affirming - but I think you need to establish for yourself personally that being more or less a full-time parent is genuinely what you want to do and I think its hard to establish that without actually living the reality of it!

- In terms of long term planning for your children, its very important that you choose to downsize to a location where there are free national and secondary schools that you are happy with and are in the catchment area for. If you can be fairly sure that the first 18 years of your children's education will be largely cost free (you will inevitably end up paying for extra-curricular stuff and school associated stuff at some stage), that gives you substantial room for maneovre in terms of planning for potential third level costs. 

- Health: make sure that your planning includes a good chunk of money annually which is set aside for private health insurance. An unfortunate necessity in my opinion. However, if you shop around and reaslistically assess what you really need, you can keep costs down. We are constrained to one particular insurer because I have a pre-existing condition, but we still managed to half our bills this year by changing our policy to one which includes a very similar level of cover, but does away with some of the fluff that we never use or claim for anyway.

Keep us updated on your progress, sounds like you have your priorities very clear!


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## peterpanics

Hi mammyof2,

Thanks for the reply.

Some negativity was fine with me as I was always a bit unsure of the plan, I am 35 now with one child and 40 years old seems close. The assumption was that my wife will work 2 or 3 days a week as she does currently, she still likes that idea until later in life but who knows what might change.

"In terms of long term planning for your children, its very important  that you choose to downsize to a location where there are free national  and secondary schools that you are happy with and are in the catchment  area for. If you can be fairly sure that the first 18 years of your  children's education will be largely cost free (you will inevitably end  up paying for extra-curricular stuff and school associated stuff at some  stage), that gives you substantial room for manoeuvre in terms of  planning for potential third level costs." -> Definitely good advice. 

"Health: make sure that your planning includes a good chunk of money  annually which is set aside for private health insurance." -> Private health insurance part of the spending breakdown for the family for sure. I have seen how important it can be. 

I will give a short update about my progress.....


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## peterpanics

Short update:

One child now which has been truly great but also a learning experience. Not really any closer to getting serious about finding a location in the countryside, time passes so quickly. Still renting in the city for €1100 a month jointly. My wages have gone up in the last 2 years but are likely levelling off now at my level. Costs are about €25000 now for me alone per year with everything included (about the same for my wife annually).

Savings now:
==========
€150,000 in cash accounts
€98,000 in unit funds 
€38,000 in shares 
€105,000 in Defined Contribution pension (slowed down AVC contributions for now)
==========

I think I will need a 'pot' of something like 25 to 30 times my annual spending minus what I make from part-time work if I was to semi-retire at 40ish. Keeping my costs low I guess is the main part of the equation, reading sites about financial independence.

One day it will be nice to convert the 10 years of hard saving into something 'real' instead of just some virtual numbers on screens and on pieces of paper, especially with all the turbulence globally and in Ireland financially recently. 5 more years until I am 40!

Thanks to those who replied since I last did.


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## panindub

Hi peterpanics,

Just came across this post today, and I'm really hope this works out for you!
I'd also like to retire early, but have bought in Dublin an expensive house and mortgage along with that, so hoping to retire maybe a few year early...maybe 60yr old if possible..fingers crossed. 

I also work in IT and don't expect employers we be too interest in IT staff in their 60s...keeping up with technology and all that(even though it possible). I feel agism will be a factor in any interviews.

You seem to be on the right path; plan as must as possible and assess the risks and when your ready make the jump  Remember for big dicission like this, their is never a right time in life.

There are lots of early retirement blogs in the Internet, one of my faviourite at the moment is this one(US based, but still worth a read);
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/


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## peterpanics

Hi cashier,

"It is a good time to make a start in looking for your dream home now  that you have started a family" -> Yes, that is a sentence I have heard recently close to home 
"hope the  little one is thriving!" -> So far, long may that continue.


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## peterpanics

Hi panindub,

"plan as must as possible and assess the risks and when your ready make the jump" -> I think my jump will be very gradual, definitely will not drop the current job if thinks are looking risky. Will be small steps all the way if possible.

Thanks for the 'mrmoneymustache' link, I never saw that before.


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## Brendan Burgess

> One day it will be nice to convert the 10 years of hard saving into something 'real'



I hadn't seen this very interesting thread before. 

It seems to me that you are both doing jobs you like, that you are being well paid for them, and that you enjoy your frugal lifestyle. 

That is different from someone whose only target is to save as much as possible, by making such sacrifices that they don't enjoy life. 

If you are in the first category, then you probably don't need to do much in the way of planning. 

If you are in the second category, I think you should have second thoughts. Don't make huge sacrifices for a false god of "being able to semi-retire at 40". 

Being cash rich probably means you could buy a house on a few acres within comfortable commuting distance of Dublin.  You may well have to take out a mortgage. If this gives you the place you want to live long-term, go for it, even if it means working a lot longer than 40.


----------



## peterpanics

Hi Brendan, 

Thanks for your comments. I think we both have  realised (especially me) that we are in jobs we like, the "frugal  lifestyle" does not feel so frugal to us (even though I said "hard  saving") with our combined spending at ~€50000 a year (I guess it will creep upwards) allowing  us to go on a few holidays a year and enjoy life. We will likely find  that house on a few acres (modest mortgage still likely) but no big rush  currently as things are fine renting for a little bit longer while we  decide where (biggest blockage for us but first step is to seriously  look out there). The financial independence goal will still remain but  the urgency seems to have disappeared since I started this thread in  2009, I guess the aim of "being able to semi-retire at 40" was a bit  naive when I was not really sure what I wanted 3 years ago.


----------



## Gorbashow

Hi peterpanics

Good to see you are doing well and seems like it will eventually go as you planned.

Just one thing you might consider is to allocate some savings into the commodities.
Some  silver and gold (but physical coins, bars - so you have it in your  hands when something bad happen), might not be a bad idea considering  what is going on in EU with the EUR and in US vs CHINA currency war.
Sure  everything can happen but as long as they are printing "phoney" money  everywhere you should be pretty safe with gold and silver and in case  everything goes bad, this might be a last resort. 

Just something to consider. Obviously best to explore the subject yourself before you make any decisions.  
Food for thought: 
youtube(dot)com/watch?v=bXIHvvZe_mU&feature=related
youtube(dot)com/watch?v=LpeFv8eNLIE&feature=related
youtube(dot)com/watch?v=AZrQilGtzP0&feature=relmfu


----------



## mtk

I have thought about retiring mid 40s to but have decided to keep going until the magic 50 when ( 2 years) you can access your Dc scheme fund and avcs ( about 500k by then)to put money in arf and draw it down.
I do not enjoy my work mainly due to the new boss ( of 11 months) but i guess i dont want him to "win" by quitting without a job to go to. Another job is proving hard to find ( have been trying). All a little depressing .


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## DerKaiser

My understanding is as follows:
€300k in accessible savings
€100k in pension
Hope to semi retire on a joint household income of €55k gross
Currently spend €50k per annum

A few observations:
Spending €50k per annum is far from frugal.
You'd be able to knock at least €6k off that on the difference between dublin and country rents.
A gross income of €55k is about €41k after tax, anyone without massive debts should be able to live on that.

Why not just do it whilst you're still young and have the energy? 
Otherwise you'll keep pushing it out and waste most of your life dreaming about it.


----------



## Raskolnikov

panindub said:


> There are lots of early retirement blogs in the Internet, one of my faviourite at the moment is this one(US based, but still worth a read);
> http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/


That link is a little fluffy.

This one is a little more extreme, but very interesting - *www.earlyretirementextreme.com*


----------



## peterpanics

Hi DerKaiser,

"Spending €50k per annum is far from frugal.
You'd be able to knock at least €6k off that on the difference between dublin and country rents." -> I agree far from frugal, I assume €50k per annum in the long term with spending creeping upwards with children balanced out by lower expenses outside of Dublin. Saving still but slowing down faster than I expected recently!
"A gross income of €55k is about €41k after tax, anyone without massive debts should be able to live on that." -> Agree if it works out.
"Why not just do it whilst you're still young and have the energy? 
Otherwise you'll keep pushing it out and waste most of your life dreaming about it." -> I plan to transition from current living situation to ideal slowly by using the extra 'youthful' energy to prepare for our future and invest while still working. I reckon another 5 years of full time work in IT if I can while working towards my other goals part-time will be the right balance.


----------



## Fella

Very interesting read in 32 myself and looking to retire/semi retire by 40 myself it's really hard to think of how much money you will need from like 40 onwards.

I've saved just over 250k I've a wife and 2 kids I've spent 80k doing the house up last 2 years but back saving about 60-100k a year now.

Are you on course for hitting your target of retirement at 40? For me it's more about not having to work than retiring. I don't like the idea of doing nothing would probably go to college or find some hobbies to keep me occupied.

Congrats on your savings so far really impressive stuff .


----------



## Protocol

You are 32, married, with 2 children, saving 60k-100k per year.

Unreal.

Assuming this is savings after debt repayment?

You must have a huge gross income, at least 200k pa.

To earn 200k at 32 is unreal.

I am guessing two doctors married to each other.


----------



## Fella

Protocol said:


> You are 32, married, with 2 children, saving 60k-100k per year.
> 
> Unreal.
> 
> Assuming this is savings after debt repayment?
> 
> You must have a huge gross income, at least 200k pa.
> 
> To earn 200k at 32 is unreal.
> 
> I am guessing two doctors married to each other.



I don't include my wife in that she does her own thing with her cash spends on clothes and whatever else. She just pays half the mortgage every month and I pay for bills shopping and eating out and entertainment.
All the money is in my accounts don't have joint accounts thank God!

I've a tracker mortgage that is cheap 700 ish a month I owe about 200k but I put 100k into house in the form of extension and totally refurbished inside.

I'm not that lucky to be a doctor   I work part time in civil service 2 days a week and trade sports and other gambling edges in my spare time - want to leave work but haven't the gonads!!  I average about 12k tax free a month but I spend a lot eat out and generally just impulse buy . my job pays me 1400 a month take home so that covers mortgage , told wife I wanna leave work and trade sports full time she says no your not solid civil service job you d be mad etc etc and everyone says same. So I said I'll save a million by 40 then I'm leaving and she agreed so that's my plan. I know I can do it my target will be 150k saved in 2014 . I don't see the point in paying off mortgage costs me like 360 a month wife paying half and about 15 years left of that.

This young man in this thread is doing well hopefully 1 million by 40 and I'll have loads to retire on or just leave work and do what I want go to college is my ambition now but that might change.


----------



## dub_nerd

Fella said:


> Very interesting read in 32 myself and looking to retire/semi retire by 40 myself it's really hard to think of how much money you will need from like 40 onwards.
> 
> I've saved just over 250k I've a wife and 2 kids I've spent 80k doing the house up last 2 years but back saving about 60-100k a year now.
> 
> Are you on course for hitting your target of retirement at 40? For me it's more about not having to work than retiring. I don't like the idea of doing nothing would probably go to college or find some hobbies to keep me occupied.
> 
> Congrats on your savings so far really impressive stuff .


 
Similar to what I did. "Retired" last year, mid forties, with savings. I'm studying a life long interest and hope to have a degree and start postgraduate studies next year. After that? ... might do some work, might not. Preferably something charitable. There no shortage of things to do.


----------



## mandelbrot

Fella said:


> I work part time in civil service 2 days a week and trade sports and other gambling edges in my spare time - want to leave work but haven't the gonads!!  I average about 12k tax free a month but I spend a lot eat out and generally just impulse buy . my job pays me 1400 a month take home so that covers mortgage , told wife I wanna leave work and trade sports full time she says no your not solid civil service job you d be mad etc etc and everyone says same.



Not to rain on your parade, but are you sure this income from sports trading is tax free? Have you taken professional advice or sought a ruling from Revenue that you're not carrying on a trade that's liable to tax. Definitely something you need to consider, or you risk finding yourself in a very messy situation at some point down the line... (www.taxandlegal.ie/ITRJune2010.pdf)


----------



## Fella

It's just gambling ,betting at bookies and Betfair there's no tax on that otherwise everyone in the country who ever won would have to declare it and pay tax.


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## mandelbrot

Fella said:


> It's just gambling ,betting at bookies and Betfair there's no tax on that otherwise everyone in the country who ever won would have to declare it and pay tax.


 
If you're clearing 12k a month at it consistently it doesn't sound very much like gambling - you must have difficulty getting a bet on in a bookies - did you read the article in the link I provided? 

Anyway, I didn't express an opinion other than to warn you that at some point the mismatch between your visible income and your actual means / wealth is going to pop on someone's radar somewhere, and you'd be better off (figuratively and literally) to be absolutely clear on what your position is, well in advance of a letter landing in your door.


----------



## Fella

Yeah I read the article it said those that engage in spread betting should be aware that what they do might be considered a trade, I don't do spread betting.

Theres no tax on gambling winnings didn't Bertie say he won money gambling to avoid tax lol

Can't post a link but from Irish statute book 613 article
(2) Winnings from betting (including pool betting), lotteries, sweepstakes or games with prizes shall not be chargeable gains, and rights to winnings obtained by participating in any pool betting, lottery, sweepstake or game with prizes shall not be chargeable assets.

If revenue wanna send me a letter I'll refer them to that.

Thanks for tip off though actually reminds me I had this chat with someone few years back and looked up this info before.


----------



## mandelbrot

Fella said:


> Yeah I read the article it said those that engage in spread betting should be aware that what they do might be considered a trade, I don't do spread betting.
> 
> Theres no tax on gambling winnings didn't Bertie say he won money gambling to avoid tax lol
> 
> Can't post a link but from Irish statute book 613 article
> (2) Winnings from betting (including pool betting), lotteries, sweepstakes or games with prizes shall not be chargeable gains, and rights to winnings obtained by participating in any pool betting, lottery, sweepstake or game with prizes shall not be chargeable assets.
> 
> If revenue wanna send me a letter I'll refer them to that.
> 
> Thanks for tip off though actually reminds me I had this chat with someone few years back and looked up this info before.



Well if you're genuinely gambling then the likelihood is you'll end up losing it all back in the long run. 

From what you'd said (that you trade sports and other gambling "edges"), I assumed you were finding arbitrage opportunities or advantage gambling - a key characteristic of gambling is the inherent uncertainty, but I was assuming (rightly or wrongly) that you are placing your bets in a systematic way such that you can't lose; what you do would appear much closer to trading in financial derivatives than actual gambling for pleasure.

Just to be clear, the legislation you quoted above simply confirms that betting winnings are not chargeable gains liable to CGT; there is no specific provision in relation to income tax - it very much depends on the facts of the individual case. Look at the 6 questions the Australian court considered in the Brajkovich case (page 3 of the article I linked):
"1. whether the betting is conducted in a systematic, organised and ‘businesslike’ way;
2. its scale: i.e. the size of the wins and losses;
3. whether the betting is related to, or part of, other activities of a businesslike character, e.g. breeding horses;
4. whether the bettor appears to engage in his activity principally for profit or principally for pleasure;
5. whether the form of betting chosen is likely to reward skill and judgment or depends purely on chance;
6. whether the gambling activity in question is of a kind which is ordinarily thought of as a hobby or pastime.”

In your case it is possible (based on the very limited info you've posted) that the answer to all except question 3 would be the one that indicates a person effecting a taxable trade rather than an actual gambler. But that's based on very scant info - hence I suggested you take the precaution of paying a fraction of a month's winnings to get a proper expert opinion and have some assurance.


----------



## Fella

There is no income tax on gambling in Ireland it doesn't say it anywhere on revenue. All it mentions is that there is no chargeable tax on gambling. Why should I waste my time paying someone to find out what I already know based on a might be tax in Australia?? Like really?? Should everyone look at other countries laws to decide if they have to pay tax? There is no tax on gambling if there was the 90+ % of people who gamble and lose could leave revenue on a spot of bother.

Your comment about losing it all eventually made me laugh its a comment I hear often. Every time I hear the bookie never losses I smile .


----------



## TommyB

Fella said:


> There is no income tax on gambling in Ireland it doesn't say it anywhere on revenue. All it mentions is that there is no chargeable tax on gambling. Why should I waste my time paying someone to find out what I already know based on a might be tax in Australia?? Like really?? Should everyone look at other countries laws to decide if they have to pay tax? There is no tax on gambling if there was the 90+ % of people who gamble and lose could leave revenue on a spot of bother.
> 
> Your comment about losing it all eventually made me laugh its a comment I hear often. Every time I hear the bookie never losses I smile .



I'd agree. I thought about doing it pro for a while but it seemed a bit too much work and I had other things going on. It gambling money was income then all persons who have ever won a bet would have to declare it as income. It can't only be considered income if you win too much. 

I'd keep at it if you have your edge. My only fear is the future might see those edges disappear as the market change. I'd never rule out a tax change on winnings either. A part time civil service job is nice but it's not exactly irreplaceable.


----------



## mandelbrot

Fella said:


> There is no income tax on gambling in Ireland it doesn't say it anywhere on revenue. All it mentions is that there is no chargeable tax on gambling. Why should I waste my time paying someone to find out what I already know based on a might be tax in Australia?? Like really?? Should everyone look at other countries laws to decide if they have to pay tax? There is no tax on gambling if there was the 90+ % of people who gamble and lose could leave revenue on a spot of bother.
> 
> Your comment about losing it all eventually made me laugh its a comment I hear often. Every time I hear the bookie never losses I smile .


 


TommyB said:


> I'd agree. I thought about doing it pro for a while but it seemed a bit too much work and I had other things going on. It gambling money was income then all persons who have ever won a bet would have to declare it as income. It can't only be considered income if you win too much.
> 
> I'd keep at it if you have your edge. My only fear is the future might see those edges disappear as the market change. I'd never rule out a tax change on winnings either. A part time civil service job is nice but it's not exactly irreplaceable.


 
Lads.... I'm gonna try this one last time!

I never said there's income tax on gambling winnings, regardless of how much one wins.

There *IS* income tax on the profits from carrying on a trade - whether or not a person is engaged in a trading activity is a question of the facts of the individual's case. Hence the 6 questions I referred to above.

The Australian case law is not binding as precedent in Ireland, but if and when a similar issue comes before the courts here the Irish judges would be likely to give consideration to it - look at any High Court ruling and you'll see case law from other jurisdictions quoted.

The question that you need to be *VERY* sure about, is quite simple - does the nature of your activities in betting markets constitute simple gambling, or does it possess the characteristics of a trade. The question is simple, but the answer may not be (as I said, and as the article indicates from relevant case law, it depends on the facts of the individual case).

If you're happy that your money is at risk and what you're doing is actually gambling then that's fine, but if you're mainly making money from arbitrage, this is by definition not gambling, and you should have a careful think about what I'm saying, because you could be simply storing up trouble.


----------



## Fella

I think your confusing youself now lol! 

There is no tax on gambling profits in Ireland , we can't talk about Australia because it has nothing to do with Ireland , why not refer to America where they pay tax on winnings if you want to refer to other countries. There is no law to say you have to pay income tax on gambling winnings , Bertie and Gilligan both said in courts there money came from gambling , I didn't see the tax man taking it off them. 

You are looking for something thats not there , i'm not sure why. 

Arbitrage betting is not gambling is another joke thing to say , there is load of risks with arbitrage betting , bookies palping your bets price changes between backing and laying.

I don't think you have the slightest inclination as to what its like been a professional gambler its not just Paddypower or Boylesports , I bet with over 700 individual bookmakers worldwide and and place tens of thousands of bets a month , how on earth would the revenue even start to look through all these books its totally impossible they would never even know them they are as far away as australia , I use e-wallets to get the money in and out , how could they look through 10k bets a month and find out if they were an Arb at the time of placing the bet? 

For some reason you are trying to convince yourself based on a case in Australia thats not even concrete that there is a gambling income tax in Ireland which there simply isint. 

If the revenue want to bring in a gambling income tax then fair enough I can decide what to do then , but they would have to give notice of it , you realistically think there is a gambling tax present at the moment that no one knows anything about ?? what about everyone daily that wins a bet or goes to horse racing or dog tracks and backs and follows horses should they all declare that ? 

Maybe your problem is jealousy im not sure , your comment you will lose it all eventually kinda suggested that was the reason.

Im finished chatting about this now , not going to hijack this young mans thread and its not a gambling forum I don't want to get into the chat of gambling because i could go on forever , ive studied every aspect of it for years


----------



## Jim2007

Fella said:


> There is no tax on gambling profits in Ireland , we can't talk about Australia because it has nothing to do with Ireland , why not refer to America where they pay tax on winnings if you want to refer to other countries. There is no law to say you have to pay income tax on gambling winnings , Bertie and Gilligan both said in courts there money came from gambling , I didn't see the tax man taking it off them.



I just saw this.....

I don't know where you are getting your advice, but unless they changed the law since I left, professional gambling is a trade/profession and is subject to income tax.  A colleague and I represented a client before the Appeals Commissioners on this very point and lost! The client decided to settle rather than take it to the next level.



Fella said:


> how on earth would the revenue even start to look through all these books its totally impossible they would never even know them they are as far away as australia , I use e-wallets to get the money in and out , how could they look through 10k bets a month and find out if they were an Arb at the time of placing the bet?



All the Revenue need to show is that your material wealth can not be accounted for on the basis of your tax returns, it then becomes your problem to prove that it is legitimate and has been properly accounted for.  There is no need for the Revenue to go through all the bets that were made as you seem to think.


----------



## mandelbrot

Fella said:


> I think your confusing youself now lol!


I'm not confused at all



Fella said:


> You are looking for something thats not there , i'm not sure why.


The reason why, as I made very clear from the outset, was to alert you to the possibility that your This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language is hanging out, and to urge you to make sure of your exposure. 



Fella said:


> Arbitrage betting is not gambling is another joke thing to say , there is load of risks with arbitrage betting , bookies palping your bets price changes between backing and laying.
> 
> I don't think you have the slightest inclination as to what its like been a professional gambler its not just Paddypower or Boylesports , I bet with over 700 individual bookmakers worldwide and and place tens of thousands of bets a month , how on earth would the revenue even start to look through all these books its totally impossible they would never even know them they are as far away as australia , I use e-wallets to get the money in and out , how could they look through 10k bets a month and find out if they were an Arb at the time of placing the bet?


Again what you've just described doesn't sound like what most normal people would understand as gambling - it's systematic, volume based, and uses the identification of opportunities identified using skill and judgement rather than chance or luck, which is the essence of actual gambling. In reality, you're not gambling any more than a trader in any commodity who buys a product that they know the market price of, and risks the movement in this market price in the time it takes for them to get it to the point of sale.



Fella said:


> For some reason you are trying to convince yourself based on a case in Australia thats not even concrete that there is a gambling income tax in Ireland which there simply isint.


I'm not trying to convince myself of anything; I'm quite happy with my understanding of things - and I specifically said in my last post that there is no income tax on winnings from actual gambling, but that depending on the circumstances it is entirely possible that a person trading in betting markets, could be liable to income tax. I see Jim has confirmed that this is the case, but if you like you can dismiss his contribution too...



Fella said:


> If the revenue want to bring in a gambling income tax then fair enough I can decide what to do then , but they would have to give notice of it , you realistically think there is a gambling tax present at the moment that no one knows anything about ?? what about everyone daily that wins a bet or goes to horse racing or dog tracks and backs and follows horses should they all declare that ?


Again, no, because there's an enormous difference between feeling lucky and putting on an impulse bet (or getting a tip and lumping on, or even sitting in your house all morning studying the form before hitting the bookies) and systematically scouring hundreds of markets globally for an edge in a market, and placing hundreds of bets a day



Fella said:


> Maybe your problem is jealousy im not sure , your comment you will lose it all eventually kinda suggested that was the reason.


My comment about losing it all was based on the general observation that gambling, actual bona fide gambling, as you well know involves requiring luck to overcome the bookie's edge, since the market is priced to include his profit - therefore since you can't be "lucky" in the long run, if you are genuinely gambling the expected return has to be negative. But you understand all that already, that's why you do what you do! And no, I'm not jealous - you're almost like my hero if I'm honest, as I would love to do what you do, but know I'd lack the discipline.
My problem was, and remains, that you might be exposed and you don't know it - and I'd be genuinely concerned that if you made a million through your sports trading over 7 or 8 years, you could have most of it taken away if it was subsequently found to be taxable income - 50% of it being the tax, and the remainder being the accumulated interest and penalty.



Fella said:


> Im finished chatting about this now , not going to hijack this young mans thread and its not a gambling forum I don't want to get into the chat of gambling because i could go on forever , ive studied every aspect of it for years


I'm finished chatting about it too - you can heed my advice or not - I've tried being helpful to you as you'll see I generally am in my posting on here - if you're going to stick your head in the sand it's your funeral. I'd wish you good luck, but you don't need it...


----------



## Bronte

Fella said:


> . Every time I hear the bookie never loses I smile .


 
Speaking of which, you're probably having an exceptional year as it seems there were too many favourites winning, and this has had a direct hit on the value of Paddy Power. My OH says he's enough money in the PP account to last until the Gold cup at least. Ultimately though, as I've been wont to inform him, the money always only seems to go one way, from our bank account to PP's bank account.

The most famous professional gambler I've heard of is one JP McManus.  So based on two posters here, his gambling is presumably trading, and therefore liable to income tax on profits of that trade.  And his loses are also therefor presumably allowed to be brought against any other trading/business income he has.


----------



## Fella

Bronte said:


> Speaking of which, you're probably having an exceptional year as it seems there were too many favourites winning, and this has had a direct hit on the value of Paddy Power. My OH says he's enough money in the PP account to last until the Gold cup at least. Ultimately though, as I've been wont to inform him, the money always only seems to go one way, from our bank account to PP's bank account.
> 
> The most famous professional gambler I've heard of is one JP McManus.  So based on two posters here, his gambling is presumably trading, and therefore liable to income tax on profits of that trade.  And his loses are also therefor presumably allowed to be brought against any other trading/business income he has.



I don't believe JP pays tax on his winnings.

I was digging a bit deeper the closest I could find was uk where tax laws are similar to here and they say no tax which would be similar to here.

http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/bimmanual/bim22017.htm

So I rang revenue this morning and they told me there is no tax on gambling winnings , I said people are telling me if its my trade and my income and im making alot from it i am then operating a trade and have to pay tax , after been transferred around for half an hour finally spoke to someone who seemed to know alot about tax. 

The definitive answer was after speaking to managers and senior people in Revenue "there is no tax on gambling winnings in Ireland weather you make 10euro or 100000 euro a year you are not liable to pay tax on your winnings " there is nothing on there system for tax from gambling winnings"

So I am doing nothing wrong , anyone can ring themselves and find that answer out.


----------



## Bronte

Fella said:


> So I am doing nothing wrong , anyone can ring themselves and find that answer out.


 
You can get people in revenue to say lots of things. But you most certainly will not be able to rely on anything in a phone conversation. Send them an email or a letter. It will take them about a month or two to get back to you, that will clear this matter up.

What evidence do you have to back up your 'belief' that JP doesn't pay tax on his bets? Do you think that Jim2007 is making up his story about the revenue appeals commissioners?


----------



## ronaldo

Bronte said:


> You can get people in revenue to say lots of things. But you most certainly will not be able to rely on anything in a phone conversation. Send them an email or a letter. It will take them about a month or two to get back to you, that will clear this matter up.
> 
> What evidence do you have to back up your 'belief' that JP doesn't pay tax on his bets? Do you think that Jim2007 is making up his story about the revenue appeals commissioners?



I agree with this. I've read quite a few posts where inaccurate advice was given by Revenue on the phone - this is the first in relation to gambling tax but that's because it's an uncommon query on the forums.

I don't see why someone earning a consistent €12,000 per month is so unwilling to pay for advice and is resorting to unproveable phone calls instead. If I were on that boat, I'd be looking for the Revenue to give written confirmation and would also get one of the big accountancy firms to give the advice on letter-headed paper as well. The cost of the advice will be a drop in the ocean compare to the winnings. 

The argument from Fella seems to be "gambling winnings aren't taxable in Ireland" which is true. The question is, would the revenue consider what you are doing to be gambling? That's a lot tougher to answer.

Comparing your arbitrage to JP McManus gambling winnings is a waste of time. McManus is a multi-billionaire and what he does is actual gambling. In a lot of cases, he bets large sums on his own horses to win. He doesn't tend to lay the horses he bets with other bookmakers or do anything else to remove the risk of the bet. 

A lot of his bets are for sums in the region of £100,000 and, like most gamblers I know, you only tend to hear about the winners.


----------



## Fella

Who said I use arbitrage?  And I never compared myself to jp someone else mentioned me I regularly bet 10k on matches I don't lay bets off , why should I push it with revenue I've asked them is there tax on gambling they said no I've askeda friend that's a senior partner in PWC he said no, I've looked on revenue site there s no mention of it. I take risk everyday gambling I lose 10k some days are revenue going to let me right that off as a tax expense I think not. 

I'm not going to go to revenue and have them scrutinising my finances and looking to take 60k a year of me for nothing. I'll take my chances I've made over 400k and they've not been near me.


----------



## RainyDay

From [broken link removed]



> Generally, the proceeds of gambling are not subject to income tax. However, there are instances where the activities of the gambler may constitute a taxable trade.


----------



## mandelbrot

Fella said:


> Who said I use arbitrage?



You're contradicting yourself now...



Fella said:


> I work part time in civil service 2 days a week and trade sports and other gambling edges in my spare time



Trading sports implies backing & laying off, and what is a gambling edge, if not an arbitrage opportunity? (genuine question)

And how do you put on tens of thousands of bets a month if you're not trading - You hardly bet on that many different discrete events?


----------



## Fella

Trading example 

Last night washington redskins laid 10k at 1.26 (1/4) rebacked them at 2 (evens)
If they didn't trade to 2 I lost 2500 that was my get out, thats not risk free its not an arbitrage. I just rebacked skins for 2500 meaning 7500 or 0 was result neglecting commission. I call that trading I hedge big bets like that because its cheap.

Over the years I have picked up many edges obviously no gambler is going to tell you where he makes his money , I specialise in inplay betting I can price an event quickly and accurately imo, I bet alot on NFL Tennis and Cricket . I have built up alot of contacts over the years with other gamblers , we keep in contact and discuss alot of things , factors affecting games and player injuries and weather. For example a Rugby match might be scheduled for Saturday and we look on Monday  and see that its likely to be raining that day , we might oppose the overs in the game and back the underdog to defy the cap , there is no chance of arbitrage here at this early stage I have taken the opinon either on my own or after speaking with people i respect that its worth hammering the unders line for this game. I might have 5k on unders and 5k on the dog to beat the handicap if it rains and is low scoring at half time I might get out depending on odds as its a cheap get out normally , if the match starts high scoring good chance i am down 10 k. Its about getting more of these right than wrong which I do. 

I go against public sentiment alot also, this can happen when a team player boxer anyone has been over hyped in the media. I think as a serious gambler you have to be always thinking and watching whats going on in the world of sport, alot of people don't see the importance of individual players and don't know how to price games up , when Countinho was injured for liverpool that was a major factor , I had the stats on countinho so opposed liverpool without him , similary carrick for united more recently. Murray winning wimbledon , opposed him for months after that to make a killing his head was never going to be right for a while after that according to people i spoke with and i agreed went against Murray. 

I suppose my edge is my knowledge and sporting opinion as well as contacts I have built up , I can see how games are unfolding and make split second decisions , Sweden v Portugal when Ronaldo scored his third goal i got 5k on him to win the balloon d'or while the game was still on , he is 1.38 to win it now , its cheap for me to trade out now for 1k and no loss if he doesn't win.

Of course not every bet wins , layed Froch for 10k liability against Groves inplay because the fight was only going one way imo (feel cheated about that one) I was bout to trade out for a very handsome profit but ref stopped it and i was down 10k.

There are lots of other edges , markets tend to overreact to wickets in cricket when they are actually insignificant compared to overs left I instantly price these and decide if the wicket was important alot of Betfair and other books inplay odds are controlled by bots and you can use your own ability to outwit these bots.


----------



## mandelbrot

Fella said:


> Trading example
> 
> Last night washington redskins laid 10k at 1.26 (1/4) rebacked them at 2 (evens)
> If they didn't trade to 2 I lost 2500 that was my get out, thats not risk free its not an arbitrage. I just rebacked skins for 2500 meaning 7500 or 0 was result neglecting commission. I call that trading I hedge big bets like that because its cheap.
> 
> Over the years I have picked up many edges obviously no gambler is going to tell you where he makes his money , I specialise in inplay betting I can price an event quickly and accurately imo, I bet alot on NFL Tennis and Cricket . I have built up alot of contacts over the years with other gamblers , we keep in contact and discuss alot of things , factors affecting games and player injuries and weather. For example a Rugby match might be scheduled for Saturday and we look on Monday  and see that its likely to be raining that day , we might oppose the overs in the game and back the underdog to defy the cap , there is no chance of arbitrage here at this early stage I have taken the opinon either on my own or after speaking with people i respect that its worth hammering the unders line for this game. I might have 5k on unders and 5k on the dog to beat the handicap if it rains and is low scoring at half time I might get out depending on odds as its a cheap get out normally , if the match starts high scoring good chance i am down 10 k. Its about getting more of these right than wrong which I do.
> 
> I go against public sentiment alot also, this can happen when a team player boxer anyone has been over hyped in the media. I think as a serious gambler you have to be always thinking and watching whats going on in the world of sport, alot of people don't see the importance of individual players and don't know how to price games up , when Countinho was injured for liverpool that was a major factor , I had the stats on countinho so opposed liverpool without him , similary carrick for united more recently. Murray winning wimbledon , opposed him for months after that to make a killing his head was never going to be right for a while after that according to people i spoke with and i agreed went against Murray.
> 
> I suppose my edge is my knowledge and sporting opinion as well as contacts I have built up , I can see how games are unfolding and make split second decisions , Sweden v Portugal when Ronaldo scored his third goal i got 5k on him to win the balloon d'or while the game was still on , he is 1.38 to win it now , its cheap for me to trade out now for 1k and no loss if he doesn't win.
> 
> Of course not every bet wins , layed Froch for 10k liability against Groves inplay because the fight was only going one way imo (feel cheated about that one) I was bout to trade out for a very handsome profit but ref stopped it and i was down 10k.
> 
> There are lots of other edges , markets tend to overreact to wickets in cricket when they are actually insignificant compared to overs left I instantly price these and decide if the wicket was important alot of Betfair and other books inplay odds are controlled by bots and you can use your own ability to outwit these bots.



Yeah that all sounds like gambling (still can't figure out how you end up with >10k bets per month!) - good luck with it


----------



## DB74

TBH it's not gambling, it's trading. No different to buying a share and getting out with a profit or having to take a loss. Undoubtedly you have a method for trading which will involve getting out for a loss at a certain price etc, likewise with a profit. It's not gambling. I appreciate that a game or match or whatever can go against you but if that happens then you will take a loss at some point. It's unlikely that you will lose your entire stake except in exceptional circumstances. Likewise you will rarely see a profitable bet through to its conclusion. It's methodical and involves multiple small profits and losses, even in a single game.

Good luck with it, it's hard work and lonely at times so fair play to you for making it pay. Just don't believe the mantra that "gambling isn't taxable" because IMO you could successfully argue that what you do isn't actually gambling but a sports equivalent to trading shares and could easily be determined as taxable by either a Revenue official who understands what you do or a judge.


----------



## Bronte

Fella said:


> I hedge big bets like that because its cheap.
> 
> at half time I might get out depending on odds as its a cheap get out normally , if the match starts high scoring good chance i am down 10 k. Its about getting more of these right than wrong which I do.
> 
> , I can see how games are unfolding and make split second decisions ,
> 
> , its cheap for me to trade out now for 1k and no loss if he doesn't win.
> 
> Of course not every bet wins ,
> 
> There are lots of other edges , markets tend to overreact to wickets in cricket when they are actually insignificant compared to overs left I instantly price these and decide if the wicket was important alot of Betfair and other books inplay odds are controlled by bots and you can use your own ability to outwit these bots.


 
So you're laying off your bets where necessary. You are mathematical and methodical, very very focused. It must take an extraodinary amount of concentration. But if you're only working 2 days you certainly have the time for it. But it does beg the question, how come the likes of the bots in Betfair cannot beat you. While I'm at it, what is a 'bot'? Doesn't Betfair have powerful computers to run the numbers, yet you can beat that?

I wonder is it possible to sustain your level of intensity all of your life, of only when you are relatively young. 

You mention a profit of 12K a month, but I assume some months you're losing 60K and others winning 90K etc. How do you keep the control not to chase your losses, and to not touch the money you have made. Of course having that control means you're not what is called a compulsive gambler.

Must say, it's an interesting insight into a different world.

I don't think one million Euro is enough to retire on at 40?  And I don't think it's wise to give up your permanent pensionable employment. One day, you might be very glad of it.


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## Gerry Canning

Keep up the (careful)gambling as 1 million ain,t near enough to retire @ 40 on. 
Eg if you live to 85 that s  paltry 22, 000 per annum+a bit of interest .And the 22,000 will be hit by inflation.
ps; keep the day job for now.


----------



## ronaldo

Gerry Canning said:


> Keep up the (careful)gambling as 1 million ain,t near enough to retire @ 40 on.
> Eg if you live to 85 that s paltry 22, 000 per annum+a bit of interest .And the 22,000 will be hit by inflation.
> ps; keep the day job for now.


 
I think this post vastly underestimates the power of compound interest and investing. That "a bit of interest" amounts to quite a lot over 45 years on an initial €1,000,000.

It'd be relatively easy to retire indefinately on €1,000,000. For example, the dividend yield on the Eurostoxx 50 is about 2.5%. The yield on the iShares EURO Dividend UCITS ETF is about 4.25%. 

It'd be relatively easy to pick a well diversified portfolio of shares, both in Europe and beyond, aiming for a yield of 3% with good opportunity for growth. There are many companies with records spanning decades for increasing dividends beyond the rate of inflation.

I'm not trying to justify retiring at 40 with €1,000,000. I'm just saying that it's a lot more doable than you would suggest - but why someone who was able to amass €1,000,000 by 40 would want to retire on €30,000 or so per year is beyond me.


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## Marion

@Gerry Canning

€22,000 per annum - paltry!


That's what teachers at the max net per annum after 40 years hard slog would aspire to. 


You are completely right. it 's paltry.


Good luck to Fella  in amassing wealth. Wish I were as brave and as competent.

Marion


----------



## mtk

Fella said:


> Trading example
> 
> Last night washington redskins laid 10k at 1.26 (1/4) rebacked them at 2 (evens)
> If they didn't trade to 2 I lost 2500 that was my get out, thats not risk free its not an arbitrage. I just rebacked skins for 2500 meaning 7500 or 0 was result neglecting commission. I call that trading I hedge big bets like that because its cheap.
> 
> Over the years I have picked up many edges obviously no gambler is going to tell you where he makes his money , I specialise in inplay betting I can price an event quickly and accurately imo, I bet alot on NFL Tennis and Cricket . I have built up alot of contacts over the years with other gamblers , we keep in contact and discuss alot of things , factors affecting games and player injuries and weather. For example a Rugby match might be scheduled for Saturday and we look on Monday and see that its likely to be raining that day , we might oppose the overs in the game and back the underdog to defy the cap , there is no chance of arbitrage here at this early stage I have taken the opinon either on my own or after speaking with people i respect that its worth hammering the unders line for this game. I might have 5k on unders and 5k on the dog to beat the handicap if it rains and is low scoring at half time I might get out depending on odds as its a cheap get out normally , if the match starts high scoring good chance i am down 10 k. Its about getting more of these right than wrong which I do.
> 
> I go against public sentiment alot also, this can happen when a team player boxer anyone has been over hyped in the media. I think as a serious gambler you have to be always thinking and watching whats going on in the world of sport, alot of people don't see the importance of individual players and don't know how to price games up , when Countinho was injured for liverpool that was a major factor , I had the stats on countinho so opposed liverpool without him , similary carrick for united more recently. Murray winning wimbledon , opposed him for months after that to make a killing his head was never going to be right for a while after that according to people i spoke with and i agreed went against Murray.
> 
> I suppose my edge is my knowledge and sporting opinion as well as contacts I have built up , I can see how games are unfolding and make split second decisions , Sweden v Portugal when Ronaldo scored his third goal i got 5k on him to win the balloon d'or while the game was still on , he is 1.38 to win it now , its cheap for me to trade out now for 1k and no loss if he doesn't win.
> 
> Of course not every bet wins , layed Froch for 10k liability against Groves inplay because the fight was only going one way imo (feel cheated about that one) I was bout to trade out for a very handsome profit but ref stopped it and i was down 10k.
> 
> There are lots of other edges , markets tend to overreact to wickets in cricket when they are actually insignificant compared to overs left I instantly price these and decide if the wicket was important alot of Betfair and other books inplay odds are controlled by bots and you can use your own ability to outwit these bots.


 
As someone who contributed to this thread before it went into a gambling aside all i can say is "fair play" and you have certanily made the thread even more interesting.

Also as someone who has accumulatey over a million through saving mainly and inheritance (30%) I would agree it may not enough to retire "securely ". I guess its also about confidence and you certainly have that!


----------



## Fella

Sorry if I came across a bit confrontational earlier in thread , you guys here actually seem alright  

I find it annoying when people say you are not risking anything and your chances of loss are slim and its all mathematical, the mathematical part is true but the chance of loss is very realistic. You cannot make 12k a month average from arbitrage imho, I may have caused confusion at the start by saying i'm a sports trader and have other edges but I hate and have never said "i'm a professional gambler" i think it sounds like a d*ckhead thing to say so I just don't say infact I rarely even speak to others about other than my wife and contacts I have made online. How can you chat with mates properly when most give out about been broke and you are making or losing more in a day than they earn in a month.

My months aren't as extreme as -60k +90k , looking back at last 4 years the biggest losing month is -22k , my months this year jan 11k february 9k march 16k april 8k may 19k june 8k july 10k , august 10k , so as you see its fairly solid , there are so many things i could explain about gambling because im studying it for 6 years at least , I didn't set out to become a gambler full time but I came across it by accident I wondered how the bookmakers were winning and average punters were losing so worked backwards from there, i lost a few thousand as a mug punter then started studying gambling and have never made a bad bet again since then , many losing bets but no bad bets , even good bets lose. An example of a good bet that loses is one I have just placed now that cost me nearly 3k euro. 

This is not risk free but its a good bet , its a good bet because the expected value of the bet long term is + and not - 

The offer was a casino offer 20% of your losses back to 600. Some people may not see the appeal in this but i look at it as 

lets stick 3000 on red on roulette table , if it wins i win 3000 if it loses i lose 2400 (this is not what i did optimum strategy is slightly more complicated, I actually stuck 600 on 5 numbers) but however working on the first example 
If you look at roulette the casino house edge is the zero they out at 35/1 but there is 37 numbers. 

So if i back red i have 18/37 chance of winning (18 reds out of 37 numbers) 
So ~48% of the time I win 3000
and ~52% of the time I lose 3000 but get 600 back so i lose 2400

fag packet maths .48*3000 - .52*2400
1440-1248= so the value of the offer is + to the tune of 192 euro 
If I do this offer enough times in my life I should be up 192 euro on average , so its a value bet even though it lost it was the right play. 

Every time I place a bet the odds are in my favour (as much as I can judge) thats why when people say bookies will always win and you will lose it all eventually I don't really see myself losing it all , Its almost impossible that I could lose everything I never risk more than half of 1% on any bet.

The reason I don't chase losses is because I hate gambling its a lonely life and I work long days and I work every saturday and Sunday when most sport is on. I don't like bookmakers they raise your limits if your a loser and let you lose more and more and if you are a winner they close you down and try there best to steal your money. I have had over 50k stolen off me in 5 years , bookmakers close down and you don't get your money back , they palp your bets and casinos they are a law onto themselves wil try anything not to pay you out. 

As someone mentioned reason I have picked 40 to stop is I need an end game it is mentally exhausting you try looking at 6 laptops at one time chatting on skype with other gamblers and having every sporting event thats on refreshing on a betfair screen in real time , while logging into a few hundred accounts , its tough , its not at all glamorous and the administration work alone is a full time job , moving money about to 700+ different bookmakers , jumping through hoops to get your money back its not a life I want to do forever. Already im mentally exhausted if i make it to 40 and have a good few quid behind me id love to close the laptops and be able to sit and relax and a watch sport without having to bet on it . having too much money disconnects you with others and life aswell , I can lose more than i make in a month and then have to get up for work the next day its a head f*ck.

To answer a question re Betfair bots, people buy or make software and program it to place bets for them at Betfair , they program in what odds should be at certain times in games and certain scores , the bot places the bet for them if the odds match there criteria , these are not always 100% accurate , it really is an essay in itself to explain why this is the case and i am a terrible explainer (not sure thats a word!) but my grammer and writing is also terrible so apologies anyone reading this.

Ok I am well over my word quota and don't want to get banned , but why retire at 40? I would like to not have to work , I would like to go to college I have never been I have an interest in maths and economics that I would like to explore , I would like to do some charity work and help others , I could live quite frugally if needs be, I think 22k sounds like a decent income I am not sure if there was sarcasm in saying it was paltry or not. Interesting to hear different opinions on weather 1million at 40 would suffice or not thats the kind of stuff I originally wanted to read in the thread when i contributed but somehow it got side tracked into weather or not gambling was taxable income , i never even believed this to be an issue as I always was fairly sure it was non taxable income , I don't want to get back into that debate i think its agree to disagree on that one kinda thing. 

MTk congrats on saying 700k thats an incredible achievement ill have to read through your posts and try get an insight as to how you done that.


----------



## DerKaiser

Fascinating stuff Fella. You were always going to get some grief early in the thread with a declaration of your typical monthly winnings, 9/10 guys who claim that kind of return are usually deluding themselves. I can see you have a very well thought through disciplined approach though.

Your example of the 20% of losses back is an outrageously generous offer from the casino but it highlights the key reason why the bookies always win. The average person might recognise the value of that bet and make it. If they lose they might walk away. If they win, chances are they will be psychologically drawn to betting again. Finding an edge is hard work, so they will probably end up making bets where the bookie has a 10% edge and are pretty much on a hiding to nothing from there on.

I think you'd have no trouble getting a degree in economics or statistics if you could tolerate they less interesting parts of the course. Hopefully though you'll keep the winning un going for another few years and most importantly not be too proud to quit when the edges you have currently developed are eventually eroded.


----------



## Gerry Canning

Marion said:


> @Gerry Canning
> 
> €22,000 per annum - paltry!
> 
> 
> That's what teachers at the max net per annum after 40 years hard slog would aspire to.
> 
> 
> You are completely right. it 's paltry.
> 
> 
> Good luck to Fella in amassing wealth. Wish I were as brave and as competent.
> ........................
> on


 
Marion, I also completely agree with you . I am not a State Employee but the harping on I hear about teachers is simply UNFAIR.
Have a good Christmas and to hell with begrudgers!


----------



## Marion

@Gerry Canning: 

Thank you. Have a great Christmas also.

Marion


----------



## goingforgold

Marion said:


> @Gerry Canning
> 
> €22,000 per annum - paltry!
> 
> 
> That's what teachers at the max net per annum after 40 years hard slog would aspire to.
> 
> 
> You are completely right. it 's paltry.
> 
> 
> Good luck to Fella in amassing wealth. Wish I were as brave and as competent.
> 
> Marion


 
To be fair, sometimes teachers are their own worst enemy 
Above statement is ridiculous and untrue. A teacher on top of their salary scale earns in excess of 65K gross inc. allowances (slightly less for new teachers), so to state that's only 22K net is misleading (if I'm being nice). They then get a pension of c.100K tax free and half their salary for the rest of their lives. This would cost a fortune to fund in a private pension scheme!

[broken link removed]

Fair play to you fella and your method for earning so much cash...think you need to be cut out for it though! Best of luck in future.


----------



## Bronte

Fella said:


> , you guys here actually seem alright
> 
> the chance of loss is very realistic.
> 
> , Its *almost *impossible that I could lose everything I never risk more than half of 1% on any bet.


 

You're a bit of alright yourself Fella,  fascinating insight into your world. Thanks for so much detail. Where to begin. 

Your biggest loss is 22 K in a month, did that not make you sweat? Do you set yourself a limit?

You've stated that now you don't make bad bets, and you've defined that even losing bets are not bad bets, at least I think that's what you did, but I'm unsure, any chance of a similar definition of a bad bet?

Above, from your post, I've highlighted the word 'almost'. Are you not conceding there that ultimately you can lose everything. How are you going to bank your gains and not touch them, I think that would be important?

Your life does seem a bit lonely, I did have the image of you in a dark room full of computers and odds and sports newspapers, to me a bit like the young men on the trading floors of the big investment firms. Personally I see no difference between what you do and what they do. But it seems to me it's a very young man's game, a lot get burnt out very early, and it seems to be an almost exclusively male world. No idea how you can manage so many accounts and bets, as you said it's exhausting and ultimately unsustainable. So you're get out strategy is good, but it might have to be before 40. 

How on earth does your wife put up with your lifestyle.  (No need to answer that or any other questions !)

Agree that bookmakers raise the limits if you lose, and ditch you if you win. What do you mean by losing 50K. What does 'palping' a bet mean.  I am aware that one has to be very wary of the terms and conditions in bookies offices, and of course their ultimate limits.  Only find out about that when a person hits the it big time.  

Do I understand you correctly, a 'bot' is a computer programe to place bets? Where does the name come from. How can they beat the computers of Betfair?

I reiterate that 1 million at 40 is not enough to live on, it might be for some people, but nothing beats a steady income. You think 22K is enough to sustain you. Is that for you, your wife, and kids if you have them, you did mention also that you play hard, as in restaurant spending etc.


----------



## Fella

Bronte said:


> Your biggest loss is 22 K in a month, did that not make you sweat? Do you set yourself a limit?


 
Yes losing that much is not nice but it happens, when it happens I try look at what I have made so far and think to myself well what are you going to do ?  Mope about thinking about it , stop betting altogether or just soak it up. Nobody makes me place these bets it was a personal choice. If they lose they lose



Bronte said:


> You've stated that now you don't make bad bets, and you've defined that even losing bets are not bad bets, at least I think that's what you did, but I'm unsure, any chance of a similar definition of a bad bet?



Gambling is 100% about maths you simply cannot win long term unless the odds you are getting on the event happening are greater than the probability of the event happening.  

If we imagine a fair coin toss , heads and harps a bookie pays you out at less than evens on a coin toss , if a bookie was pricing a coin toss he would price it as 10/11 heads 10/11 harps. It should be even/even but the bookie takes his edge.  

A bad bet is when you bet in the bookie on either heads or harps , it doesn't matter if it wins or loses it was still a bad bet , long term you will lose money taking these bets. 

So everything is price dependent, the reason why most people lose betting is that they ignore the price , they go to the bookies or log in online and back luiz suarez to score first and then celebrate when they win , i'd rather lose money on a good bet than win money on a bad bet. I spoke to someone this morning that told me they had luiz suarez to score first at 9/4 they had 100 quid on , they were proud of this. 


Pre match Betfair odds are fairly accurate they give a very good indication of the true probability of an event happening , its like a currency or a stock its there allday and if the price is too high it will be backed and if its too low it will be layed , so it will move about until the odds settle on the agreed price , I take it as a general guide that this pre match odds is as close to the true odds as possible. 

So last night suarez was 3.65 near kick off to back at betfair to get the first goal. My man backed him at 3.25 (apologies for using decimal odds its easier and I never work in fractions 3.25 is 9/4 divide 9 by 4 and add 1  ,its your return for 100 stake simplified 100 at 3.25 returns 225 +100 stake so 325) 

so the true probability of suarez scoring first was 
100/3.65 = 27.39%
my man was only getting paid out 3.25 though not 3.65

So 27.39% of time he wins 225   
and 72.31% he loses 100          

So if he does that bet 100 times 27.39 wins of 225 - 72.31 losses of 100 = 6162-7231=-1069 so he will lose 1069 or his expected loss per bet is -10.69 . 
This is a bad bet and a bet many people make everyday. 

I had money on Bendtner to score first because I got news during the day he would be playing , I got him at 8/1 and after team news came out he was alot lower than that say about 7.4 

So my bet on Bendtner
100/7.4  13.51 true % of him scoring first 
13.51% of time I win 800  10808
86.4% of time i lose 100    -8640 
expected value of bet long term 21.68 per 100 invested . 

I would rather be on Bendtner first goal scored at a +EV (expected value) than Suarez at a -EV even if it meant that my bet was a loser because long term if you are backing what is more likely to happen than the true probability of event happening you will be up .

So my bet on Bendtner was a good bet I had as much as I could on it and took it in doubles also , first legs of my doubles I would just take any par value match that goes onto my Bendtner bet , so i find bets that are roughly par value and back them , i picked a couple of tennis matches that were on early and had a few hundred doubled with Bentdner in total i had just shy of 1k going onto Bentdner , bookies are more keen to take bets on doubles because they are often a mug bet but they can be used wisely to leverage your stake on the value side.




Bronte said:


> Above, from your post, I've highlighted the word 'almost'. Are you not conceding there that ultimately you can lose everything. How are you going to bank yoru gains and not touch them, I think that would be important?



 The return on investment is high in gambling , you can reuse your money quickly as soon as an event is over you can resuse this same cash and make more out of it , so even a 5% edge repeated over and over again can't bring in great ROI , I don't actually need that much money online , at the moment I have about 100k in bookmakers and ewallets and 200k in bank , I just cream off the top of that 100k online and stick it in the bank. If I lost the 100k I have online now it would be a total black swan event , the chances are very small , some bigger bets I have I will hedge with other gamblers and sometimes we come together to lower the variance. 

If you look at optimal strategy on a 20% losses on roulette i mentioned earlier the best way to do this is 3000 on one number 

1/37 * win 3000*35   2837
36/37 * lose 2400       -2335
expected value is 502 against 192 doing it on a 50/50 shot but im only going to win that 0.02% so 98% bust rate , splitting this with another gambler or 2 helps extract more profits long terms and lower the variance. So alot of times my liability could be 10k on an event but I have offset some of this to other and they do similar in return ( its very complicated to explain all this sorry, but there is a reason that my returns are solid and not so erractic as you might expect)




Bronte said:


> Your life does seem a bit lonely, I did have the image of you in a dark room full of computers and odds and sports newspapers, to me a bit like the young men on the trading floors of the big investment firms. Personally I see no difference between what you do and what they do. But it seems to me it's a very young man's game, a lot get burnt out very early, and it seems to be an almost exclusively male world.  No idea how you can manage so many accounts and bets, as you said it's exhausting and ultimately unsustainable.  So you're get out strategy is good, but it might have to be before 40.
> 
> Agree that bookmakers raise the limits if you lose, and ditch you if you win. What do you mean by losing 50K. What does 'palping' a bet mean.



It's not as bad as that ! but can be a bit grim at times , some days are great you work an hour and make 4 figures and life is brilliant others you can't put a foot right and lose alot and have to do lots of admin and you wonder why you are doing this.
I might be burnt out before 40 I don't know to be honest its hard work , i try get out and exercise a few times a week and get a break. The money is there to be made id like to make myself comfortable financially before I stop , ive spent alot of cash before I decided to start saving a bit , 100k a year savings is very realistic so I want to do the best i can with it , hence looking and reading on this site.

Losing 50k , bookmakers go bust all the time , mostly you lose the money you had there , bookmakers palp bets , in the terms and conditions they say they can correct palpable errors a palpable error is a mispriced event , it should really be for stuff like a 10/1 bet priced up at 100/1 accidently you bet on it and it wins and your bet will be void and "palped" they refer to the terms relating to this. But you get bookmakers making questionable decisions sometimes you bet on something at 12/1 and they say it should be 9/1 thats not really palpable but its hard to argue these cases.

Over the years ive lost 50k+ , the casinos can use irregular play clauses and any excuse possible to not pay , winning the money is only half the battle.


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## DB74

Deleted


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## Marion

@goingforgold

I am not aware of any staff in my college who have retired at 40 years. All have taken early retirement and the reduced earnings/pension that it brings. Most of my younger colleagues will never reach A pension based on your figure of €65,000. A number of them currently have a medical card. 

Personally, I cannot afford to retire early. I have a mortgage that extends beyond my retirement years  a mortgage that had been expected to be repaid earlier but unanticipated cuts in public sector pay and unforeseen enforced austerity measures put a stop to this . 

Apologies for taking this thread off topic temporarily. I have nothing further to say on this issue.

Marion


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## drhum

The retirement fund should never be used in betting. That's just from my own perspective.


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## Setanta12

To thread over old ground - I am totally with Mandelbrot on what he says and can add to it.

I used to prepare the tax returns of a gambler - it was his trade.


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## Butter

This was a fascinating read this morning. Not just for the OP's outline of what he wanted to do & how he has planned for it. Also because of fella's insight into his world. 
I used to think when I started working I'd want to be retired by 40. I couldn't imagine working beyond forty as it seemed ancient. Now at 41 I can't imagine being retired - I actually quite enjoy my job & have a decent work/family balance. Two kids & aspirations to move house probably put paid to the notion of retiring early as well. 
That said I have seen someone in work retire recently in mid-late 40s. Obviously further up the totem pole than I am and a wiser saver & investor. 

Best of luck with the plans to both PP & Fella. Having a plan & the will to carry it through seem to be key.


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## RainyDay

Butter said:


> That said I have seen someone in work retire recently in mid-late 40s. Obviously further up the totem pole than I am and a wiser saver & investor.


Or a luckier saver and investor, maybe?


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## Butter

RainyDay said:


> Or a luckier saver and investor, maybe?



Actually he is both wiser & luckier! Wiser because he held on to company shares over the years, I sold a lot of mine at various stages. Luckier because when he did sell the share price was at an all-time high. And being higher up the pecking order the share rewards were greater - so yeah, wiser & luckier!!!


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## RichInSpirit

40 was my target too at one stage. 50 now ,please God!


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## PaddyBloggit

_*peterpanics*_ ~ you're 2 years away from that magic retirement age of 40.

Any update on how you're doing?


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## Fella

Be interested to know how Peter got on , just reading this thread again
November 13 had 250k saved 
May 15 I have 290k saved and 186k in investments 
34 now and feel like I would have to work really hard to retire at 40 , early retirement is more challenging than I first suspected , better start doing the lotto


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## moneybox

Fella said:


> November 13 had 250k saved
> May 15 I have 290k saved and 186k in investments
> 34 now and feel like I would have to work really hard to retire at 40 , early retirement is more challenging than I first suspected , better start doing the lotto



There very few 34 year olds that have close to half a million in savings, you have to be congratulated. Well done!


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## Purple

Fella said:


> Be interested to know how Peter got on , just reading this thread again
> November 13 had 250k saved
> May 15 I have 290k saved and 186k in investments
> 34 now and feel like I would have to work really hard to retire at 40 , early retirement is more challenging than I first suspected , better start doing the lotto


Can I be your friend?


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## The Ghoul

I am 37 and my annual expenditure is about 1.3% of the value of my investable assets. I think in theory it is possible for me to retire - ref: the "4% rule". However a change in circumstances would throw my calculations off. For example, I may wish to fund nursing home costs for my mother in the next few years and I would want to be working if I did that. Also, I am a conservative investor and think that a "1% rule" is more appropriate for me than 4%.

I am in the good financial position that I am in due to several factors:
Steady job in the public sector
Minimalism
Consistent high savings rate (usually save around 75% of net income, saving seems to come naturally to me)
Inheritance
Good luck
Being single with no children
Not smoking

Were I to retire now I think I would receive a small public service pension as a preserved benefit at age 60. With minimalism, a little money goes a long way. I generally don't count that pension in my calculations.


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## Purple

The Ghoul said:


> I am 37 and my annual expenditure is about 1.3% of the value of my investable assets. I think in theory it is possible for me to retire - ref: the "4% rule". However a change in circumstances would throw my calculations off. For example, I may wish to fund nursing home costs for my mother in the next few years and I would want to be working if I did that. Also, I am a conservative investor and think that a "1% rule" is more appropriate for me than 4%.
> 
> I am in the good financial position that I am in due to several factors:
> Steady job in the public sector
> Minimalism
> Consistent high savings rate (usually save around 75% of net income, saving seems to come naturally to me)
> Inheritance
> Good luck
> Being single with no children
> Not smoking
> 
> Were I to retire now I think I would receive a small public service pension as a preserved benefit at age 60. With minimalism, a little money goes a long way. I generally don't count that pension in my calculations.


Make sure you enjoy yourself and live your life. Money is just a tool, it can't bring happiness.


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## hikicker

37, single, no kids, public sector job, saving 75% of your income. Go out and get your hole, you'll be a long time dead...........


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## Purple

hikicker said:


> 37, single, no kids, public sector job, saving 75% of your income. Go out and get your hole, you'll be a long time dead...........


That's kind of what I was saying but you put it better


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## demoivre

The Ghoul said:


> For example, I may wish to fund nursing home costs for my mother in the next few years and I would want to be working if I did that



Why would you want to do that with the Fair Deal scheme in operation?


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## Bronte

There's a lot to be said for working.  What happens to people who retire very early, do they have motivation and fullfilment.


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## peterpanics

PaddyBloggit said:


> _*peterpanics*_ ~ you're 2 years away from that magic retirement age of 40.
> 
> Any update on how you're doing?



My salary increased a good bit since my last update early in 2013, enjoying my job a lot more these days on top of being a father. It is much easier now to see myself working in current role well beyond age of 40. I spend a lot more money on myself while having a good time with family, my Savings Rate has dropped but still overall good financial habits.

Renting as before but not given up the plan to have a small hobby farm as part of a later than originally intended semi-retirement. Some part-time experience and education in this direction over the last years. 

No big regrets, I think it was good for me to save hard for a decade as it gives me more options now. Maybe my earlier dream for 40 when that was years away helped me to get through the hardest years of my career.

Financial summary:
-----------------------------
Cash: 171k
Shares & Funds: 166k
Pension: 188k

Partner has about 70k seperately saved and invested.
-----------------------------

Thanks for the inputs and interest.


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## mtk

Fair play Peter


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## mtk

Any update on the progress peter?


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## SPC100

6 years later; Any updates or advice from  peterpanicks, mtk, dub nerd, fella or others ? On progress or life experience after (semi) early retiring?


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