# to sell our rent property



## Deleted 15555 (4 Jul 2007)

We are buying a new house (up-grading) and we can afford (as in the bank will let us) keep our existing house, We have already released alot of equity on it as we had a bit of bumping start originally settling back in Ireland but now we have two steady jobs and good salaries (myself and husband) plus my husband does alot of his own work and this is going well too. 

If we sell by the time we pay extra in estate agents and solicitors I budget that we will only have approx 10k more than if we keep the property take 90% investment and rent it. 

The rent will practically cover the mortgage shortfall of EUR 90 at present. We do however have three small children.

I am suggesting we put 3 x months rent in a deposit account in case we have bad tennants... but heard today there is a UCD prof suggesting the housing market is going to crash over 10 years with as much as 60% fall in prices.


Can anyone give me advice??

Thanks


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## ClubMan (4 Jul 2007)

This is essentially a _Property Investment_ query so has been moved from Mortgages and Buying and Selling Homes.

Have you read this thread:

Sell home or keep as an investment?


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## Purple (4 Jul 2007)

ClubMan said:


> Have you read this thread:
> 
> Sell home or keep as an investment?


Good advice on that thread. 
Sell the house.


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## Deleted 15555 (4 Jul 2007)

Thank you - this post has lots of conflicting information in and some of it dates back to 2005 - 2004 things have changed considerably now - If we keep the property it would be a ten year thing??


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## derryman (4 Jul 2007)

sell the first house - bad enough the probability of your own home reducing in value -  but at least you have the utility value of living there

something about no domestic control of interest rates, 350k empty properties in Ireland, reducing affordability and a global credit crunch


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## ClubMan (4 Jul 2007)

SBW said:


> this post has lots of conflicting information in and some of it dates back to 2005 - 2004 things have changed considerably now


Like what exactly?

Remember that there is no simple catch all answer to questions such as this so it's hardly surprising if there are divergent opinions on such matters.


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## z106 (4 Jul 2007)

Basically the question in a nutshell seems to be will property prices fall?
If they will,you will sell -0 and if they won't, then you won't sell.

You've really gott amake your mind up yourself on that one.

If you want my opinion I'd say rent.
In thw long term the value will go up - just depends how long that term will be though.

The ESRI reckon a 3% drop this year - stabilising next year - and who knows after that !!


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## Trustmeh (4 Jul 2007)

i agree to keep it and rent on one condition. WHat is the location of the house? Do you believe the price of your house is worth it or is it over valued?

Prices may fall in parts of ireland in the next few years, in others it may actually go up.


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## jpd (5 Jul 2007)

The UCD prof was basing his analysis on data from a series of 40 house price boom and bust cycles in the OECD countries from 1970. 

We all know that the economic situation in Celtic tiger Ireland is completely different from anything seen before, so his analysis doesn't apply here.


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## z106 (5 Jul 2007)

WHat's so different about celtic tiger ireland to the other 40 crashes he studied ?


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## ClubMan (5 Jul 2007)

I presume _jpd _is being facetious?


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## Purple (5 Jul 2007)

ClubMan said:


> I presume _jpd _is being facetious?



Yes, that's the way I took it anyway


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## jpd (5 Jul 2007)

The estimates in the report are extrapolated from the data from previous boom/bust cycles none of which experienced a boom quite as large as Ireland's. So that's one caveat at least - we really are in uncharted waters. 

Also, we do have a growing population or, more pertinently, a growing number of household units which is also different from most of the situation analysed in the report. However the report does give a different slant on the market from the consensus view. It is available here [broken link removed] so that everyone can make up their own mind.

IMHO the findings are exagerated but are certainly as realistic, if not more so,  than the situation proposed by the "Everything will be fine next autumn/year" brigade.


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## ClubMan (5 Jul 2007)

Begob! He wasn't being facetious!


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## kkelliher (6 Jul 2007)

Its been about 10 years now since they first started saying the property market will colapse. IT HASNT. even to this day it hasnt. Its simply correcting itself which is no major problem. Some places are still increasing in value outside dublin ie parts of munster. 

If you can afford to keep it then keep it. If your idea is to hold on for ten years and rent it out then this takes away the whole idea of property value as over a ten year period it will be subject to increase and decrease. After ten years you will have a fair chunk gone out of the mortgage and still have the assit.

If the property market does colapse the rental market will be even more secured as the supply to the market will dry up.


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## Purple (6 Jul 2007)

kkelliher said:


> If the property market does colapse the rental market will be even more secured as the supply to the market will dry up.


 But houses will be cheaper, economic activity will be lower and renting migrant workers who are currently here to build houses will be gone, so why will the rental market be even more secure? It may hold up as supply decreases but I don't see it improving.


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## kkelliher (6 Jul 2007)

If the market was ever to collapse, the majority of people would not be selling because they would not be moving on to buy somewhere else. The only houses that would be on the market would be those who defaulted or investers selling out. Investors are less likely to sell at a loss. Lets not make it sound as if we are going to end up on the floor. We have one of the strongest economys in Europe and our migrant workers dont have alot of options when it comes to better locations as the UK have barred most of them. Its peoples negativity that we are all talking about not the reality of whats happening on the ground.

All of the present reports are based on historical data of times gone by. Ireland has never been in the position it has been for the last five years so how can anyone use historical data for explaining whats going to happen in the future? It seems its ok for new futures to happen but history tells us its all going to fall on its face...... somehow i dont think so.


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## beattie (6 Jul 2007)

kkelliher said:


> Lets not make it sound as if we are going to end up on the floor. We have one of the strongest economys in Europe and our migrant workers dont have alot of options when it comes to better locations as the UK have barred most of them.


 
Don't you mean apart from the UK?

Do you think they will stick around here if they lose their jobs?


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## kkelliher (6 Jul 2007)

I dont believe its the foreign workers whose jobs are at risk here. Do you?


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## Purple (6 Jul 2007)

kkelliher said:


> I dont believe its the foreign workers whose jobs are at risk here. Do you?


Considering how many work in construction yes, I do.
Remember that prices are set on marginal demand.


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## kkelliher (6 Jul 2007)

considering what irish workers are paid in construction level headed think would suggest there may be more irish than foreign workers that end up loosing jobs


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## jd28 (6 Jul 2007)

In my opinion the biggest threat at present is the far east which has the capacity to take away the big companies who have based here and the immigrant workers.


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## joe sod (11 Jul 2007)

what will be will be, it is correct that the property doomsayers have been wrong for the last ten years, they largely based their data on historical irish house prices when we still had our own currency. However it is the euro the huge boost it gave the irish economy with low interest rates that propelled the property market to such heights. Also the huge levels of immigration into the country were largely unforeseen. However gravity is finally re-asserting itself. The hiccup in prices in 2001/2002 was probably the end of the first 5 year boom largely irish economy derived, the second 5 year boom was euro and


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## Purple (12 Jul 2007)

and what?


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## ClubMan (12 Jul 2007)

... they all lived happily ever after?


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## ice (12 Jul 2007)

ClubMan said:


> ... they all lived happily ever after?


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