# Which way next for house prices ?



## CM (29 Jan 2004)

Any thoughts, anyone ?


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## Dearg Doom (29 Jan 2004)

I can say for a fact that they will either go up, down or stay the same.  

Seriously though; anyone giving a more accurate prediction than that is guessing, as no one can tell for sure. And prices within different market segments or areas can move in different directions at the same time, so unless you can be specific about segment and location, then any guesses are even more meaningless. But then if you can be specific about segment and location, then some small investigative work by watching estate agent windows and seb sites like myhome.ie will help.

Speculation on share prices and currency exchange rates is not allowed at AAM, and I believe that house price speculation should be treated the same for the same reasons.


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## N0elC (30 Jan 2004)

Hello DD,



> Speculation on share prices and currency exchange rates is not allowed at AAM



Hmmm . . . not entirely true. Discussion of individual shares isn't permitted, but a more general discussion on the state of the stock market, or a specific sector would be useful and informative. The same would go for house prices.

As you rightly point out, its hard to know what will happen next, but the big bust predicted by the Economist didn't happen, and isn't likely to do so in the future.

House prices appear to the rising steadily, at least that's my reading of things like the [broken link removed]. The economic fundamentals (low interest rates, high rates of household formation, moderate economic growth) would appear to underpin this trend.


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## Repaymentator (30 Jan 2004)

Didn't the Economist hedge their bets a little by predicting a 20% decline within 4 years? On that basis with flat growth and inflation actual prices don't have to decline by 20%. My own belief is we're at the top of the market (isn't this already being seen the 2nd hand Apartment market). If I take a risk on property again it will be on a house.


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## Tommy (30 Jan 2004)

The whole point of the Economist article was that it is impossible to specify exactly when a price collapse would occur, their opinion was that it would occur within a period of 4 or so years.


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## 10romans (31 Jan 2004)

*which way next for house prices*

the broad answer has to be up surely 

*interest rates -for the foreseeable future - economy on the up - cost as meas


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## Roise (31 Jan 2004)

*which way next for house prices*

What about inflation is that on still going up as well - remember Japan it was house prices that was responsible for its deflation 10 years and it is still there.


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