# On Metro north line - likely increase in house value?



## rapid (23 Oct 2006)

I live along the route of the proposed Metro north line, within easy walking distance of the stop at DCU.

Any estimate as to how this would increase the value of my house? (House is currently worth around €550,000).

When would any increase be reflected in the value? (e.g. from the announcement of the route or only when the line is up and running?)


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## jprender (23 Oct 2006)

um...what way is the wind blowing ?


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## Satanta (23 Oct 2006)

rapid said:


> When would any increase be reflected in the value? (e.g. from the announcement of the route or only when the line is up and running?)


It would only be reflected in the value when possible buyers are willing to pay more for it. This may already have happened and it may never happen!


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## extopia (23 Oct 2006)

The line may never be built. Or it may be built but along a different route. It's too early to tell what the value of this may or may not be. Perhaps your house will decline in value at a lower rate than other houses not on the route, which is a good thing I suppose.


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## runner (23 Oct 2006)

Might make it easier to sell, but dont think it would add much to the price at this stage. The LUAS (sandyford) had good price increases along the line, but only after it opened. Might be had to sell though during excavation stage near your house.


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## monkeyboy (23 Oct 2006)

It will add exactly 7.3% value p/a peaking at 9.6 on the week before the line opens and levveling after that for a period of 2 years.

Either that or just wait and see, 5 odd years is still a way yet.


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## ClubMan (23 Oct 2006)

monkeyboy said:


> It will add exactly 7.3% value p/a peaking at 9.6 on the week before the line opens and levveling after that for a period of 2 years.


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## Sharky (23 Oct 2006)

I am surprised to read some of the silly and slightly sneery replys to Rapids questions, especially from the frequent posters!!
The proposed Metro will undoubtly further improve house prices in Swords, Kinsealy and Malahide.


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## ClubMan (23 Oct 2006)

_monkeyboy's_ "silly" reply illustrates that we are clearly in the realm of pure speculation in attempting to answer the original question.  There is no way to answer the question. Nobody can predict the future.


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## Satanta (23 Oct 2006)

ClubMan said:


> There is no way to answer the question.


I'd disagree and claim that I did answer the question  
Any raise or fall in market prices will be dependant on buyers, not on the metro line. How the proposed metro line will change buyers views on the property is unknown. Asking when it might change the views is going a step further and totally unrealistic to ask for an answer with any degree of confidence, hence the answers which were given!



Sharky said:


> The proposed Metro will undoubtly further improve house prices in Swords, Kinsealy and Malahide.


The proposed metro line has to fight against increasing interest rates, current sentiment to the housing market, etc. etc., how you can state that it will "undoubtly further improve house prices" is beyond me!
It has the potential to help improve prices (or some will feel help mitigate crashes), but nothing is certain and speculation on such is more or less a wasted effort.


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## ClubMan (23 Oct 2006)

There is no way to accurately answer this specific question:


> Any estimate as to how this would increase the value of my house?


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## extopia (23 Oct 2006)

You can answer the question - you just can't put a number on it.


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## zag (23 Oct 2006)

Clubman - 'no' is a perfectly accurate answer to the question

z


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## Sharky (23 Oct 2006)

I think the original poster was asking for peoples opinions on what effects this new Metro would have on house prices. Not an actual figure, obviously we cant prdict the future!


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## zag (23 Oct 2006)

To answer what the original posters overall question might have been - there is every chance that the Metro will increase demand for houses within the catchment area.  This is pretty much universal across the world - access to rapid transit (going towards somewhere usefull) tends to increase the demand for housing stock.

There is also a chance that many other factors will decrease demand.

It is not possible to accurately predict the net effect of all the factors, but it is possible to say that all other things being equal (which they invariably aren't) having a metro within walking distance will probably lead to increased house prices.

z


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## extopia (23 Oct 2006)

However it's impossible to predict if your house will be worth more in five years time (metro or no metro) than it is now, especially with the market seemingly at a peak at the moment.


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## monkeyboy (23 Oct 2006)

Sharky said:


> I am surprised to read some of the silly and slightly sneery replys to Rapids questions, especially from the frequent posters!!
> The proposed Metro will undoubtly further improve house prices in Swords, Kinsealy and Malahide.


 
I did state the only fact relevant to measuring this accurately.....wait and see!


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## whathome (23 Oct 2006)

This Sunday Business Post article from 2004 on the luas effect might help:
[broken link removed]

I would say it will add 5-10% to the value compared to areas with poor transport infrastructure. With improving infrastructure in general with expanding Luas and Dart in the past few years, the effect won't be as big as if it had been implemented a few years ago IMO. Definitely a plus though


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## monkeyboy (23 Oct 2006)

whathome said:


> With improving infrastructure in general with expanding Luas and Dart in the past few years, the effect won't be as big as if it had been implemented a few years ago IMO. Definitely a plus though


 
Just to emphasise how pointless the speculation is this early is that the Metro may have an even greater effect on prices in a positive way than the Luas due to much greater road congestion and commuter frustration in 5 years. If cars keep being put onto the roads at the rate they are this could well happen.

The Luas also popped up during the peak of the property boom and this is not likley to be the case when the Metro starts to show actual signs of arriving this may lead to increases less than the Luas.
It has got to be positive Im sure but to specualate at this stage is pointless all you can do is list reasons why it may and to put a number on it you may as well say 7.3% p/a.


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## plaudit (23 Oct 2006)

As each new rail option is developed in the Dublin area the effects on house prices becomes smaller. In theory the Metro could devalue houses along the Dart and Luas lines. People who want a direct Rail/Tram service to the city centre will have more options as time goes by.


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## bearishbull (23 Oct 2006)

I live near the proposed griffith avenue stop(approx 5 min walk). I dont think my house will be worth any more in real terms in ten years time even if the griffith avenue stop happens(which it should now the route of metro north has been confirmed ).


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## Buckshee (23 Oct 2006)

But this is a discussion forum after all  so its good to see it being discussed despite the fact that some people seem to think its a stupid question.


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## ClubMan (23 Oct 2006)

Who here said it was a stupid question?


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## whathome (23 Oct 2006)

Buckshee said:


> But this is a discussion forum after all so its good to see it being discussed despite the fact that some people seem to think its a stupid question.


 
Nobody said it was a stupid question Buckshee. I think the problem some people had was the OP gave the current price of their house (€550,000) and wanted to know how much it would increase by and when that would happen. It's impossible to give an accurate answer to a question like that. 

Here's a very exciting UK report:
"RAIL ACCESS AND HOUSE PRICES:AN EVALUATION OF THE WIDER BENEFITS OF TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENTS"

If anyone can stay awake long enough to find an answer, let us know 
[broken link removed]


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## hmmm (24 Oct 2006)

Why do we assume that having what is in effect a train clattering through an area from 5/6am is going to increase the value? For the catchment area out of earshot maybe, but I wouldn't like it.


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## Stiofan (25 Oct 2006)

Good point Hmmm. I know darts can be loud enough and that on a clear night you can here the Dublin Belfast train rambling throu Killester a mile away. I also wouldn't go banking on a windfall until you see the capacity plans. wouldn't be much use to Drumcondra if its full leaving Swords!!!!


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## whathome (25 Oct 2006)

hmmm said:


> Why do we assume that having what is in effect a train clattering through an area from 5/6am is going to increase the value? For the catchment area out of earshot maybe, but I wouldn't like it.


 
You would have to be very close to be affected by noise from a light rail system. They're not going to be using big diesel powered locomotives! Prices may be adversely affected if the property was overlooked from the tracks. For the majority of home owners in the catchment area however, the Metro will improve their quality of life and value of property relative to areas with less effective public transport infrastructure.


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## Joe Nonety (27 Oct 2006)

Maybe the OP's house will be like Brad Pitt and Gwyneth Paltrow's characters' place in Seven. So to get the best price, look up the metro timetable and only allow viewings in between trains, although there is a huge dependecy on it running on time!


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## BritLad (2 Nov 2006)

Well you will have a Unique Selling Point compared to other houses that distance from the city centre - a straightforward commute by train to the centre which is more attractive than a drive and will make the house more attractive to other similar porperties with more awkward commutes....

...but also look at how many apartments are being built in the docklands area, and people may choose to avoid the commute to the centre by living IN the centre.

In London's ubburbs being with 15-20mins walk of a Tube station is a big + and house prices reflect that.


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## KarlK (2 Nov 2006)

rapid said:


> I live along the route of the proposed Metro north line, within easy walking distance of the stop at DCU.
> 
> Any estimate as to how this would increase the value of my house? (House is currently worth around €550,000).


 
I would expect your house to gain around 10-15% _relative to a similar house in a similar suburb not on the line_. 
Factors that would help your house keep a high relative value include:

traffic congestion: the more the better
booming economy: more jobs means more demand for housing
high oil prices
carbon taxes, pay as you go car tax & insurance etc
network effect as other lines are built
The last point is that as more luas and rail is added to the city, the public transport network becomes more feasible overall. If you can reasonably complete a lot of trips (not just into town) by train, then living near the line is a real boon. In London, there is a very clear link between distance from tube station and house price.

The gains in house prices along the line will likely far exceed the project budget. 

I would pay considerably more for a house with a good rail link to the city as it might save me buying a second car, could enable me to get to work every day and would allow me to have a night on the town with my mates and get home without a taxi. I use the airport a lot and as the rail links get better in town it will make using the train for intercity journeys more feasible.



> When would any increase be reflected in the value? (e.g. from the announcement of the route or only when the line is up and running?)


Efficient market hypothesis would say that the price of your house would reflect the benefit from the train line as soon as it was announced, but would discount it somewhat as it won't be running for the next 4 years. With the Luas, I don't think prices really changed that much until the line was built as nobody expected it to work so well (the green line anyway). One girl in Dundrum told me she feels she have moved into an inner suburb from an outer suburb since it was built. So I guess the market has copped this now.


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## robd (2 Nov 2006)

KarlK said:


> I would expect your house to gain around 10-15% _relative to a similar house in a similar suburb not on the line_.
> Factors that would help your house keep a high relative value include



Given current over valuation, occupancy, new build rates and rising interest rates I would expect your house to *lose 10-15% less* _relative to a similar house in a similar suburb not on the line_.

Mind you I would also (as stated by a previous poster) question what % of houses won't be on a Luas, Dart or Metro after Transport21.


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## plaudit (2 Nov 2006)

Remember that railways only go more or less in a straight line. bus routes can get you to new places straight away while it might take 20 years to get a train in place. For example Tallaght shopping centre or Dublin airport. The day they opened a bus route could be put in place from the city centre, but it can take decades to get a train line there. Who's to say in 20 years time the places people want to go won't have a train line connected to them?

Eventually everywhere will be close to a QBC and/or train and everything will be just one QBC/Luas/Metro/Dart change from your home.


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## KarlK (3 Nov 2006)

robd said:


> Given current over valuation, occupancy, new build rates and rising interest rates I would expect your house to *lose 10-15% less* _relative to a similar house in a similar suburb not on the line_.


Same thing, we can only talk about relative prices.



robd said:


> Mind you I would also (as stated by a previous poster) question what % of houses won't be on a Luas, Dart or Metro after Transport21.


A very high % will be outside an acceptable walk, say 12 minutes or 1km radius. To find out, draw 1km radius circles around the proposed stations on a map of Dublin.



plaudit said:


> Remember that railways only go more or less in a straight line. bus routes can get you to new places straight away while it might take 20 years to get a train in place. For example Tallaght shopping centre or Dublin airport. The day they opened a bus route could be put in place from the city centre, but it can take decades to get a train line there. Who's to say in 20 years time the places people want to go won't have a train line connected to them?
> 
> Eventually everywhere will be close to a QBC and/or train and everything will be just one QBC/Luas/Metro/Dart change from your home.


Buses are far less attractive to comuters than trains. Being on a bus route adds nothing to your house price in London as far as I know. Main problems with buses: unpredictable frequency outside of peak hour. Extremely slow (less than walking speed) within the city centre. Very long dwell times due to single door operation/driver taking fares. Double the density of stops compared to light rail (slower journey). No electronic display to show time of next bus at stops despite Dublin Bus working on this for a decade. Waiting for a bus with no idea when/if it will arrive is stressful. Many of these problems could be solved by DB but will they? The city centre speed is the worst unsolvable problem. Even aircoach has to tell passengers to allow an hour and twenty minutes to get from Stillorgan to the airport (15 km/h). Meanwhile the green luas can manage 25km/h and the metro will run at 35km/h.

The Stillorgan/N11 QBC works well mostly as there are two additional lanes on each carriageway, but the other QBCs have had little success. The N11 QBC with 50 full double decker buses per hour at the morning peak is popular with commuters; what will happen when the many huge apartment complexes on either side are complete is anyone's guess. The bus lane is already full with buses, taxis, private coaches, motorcycles etc.

So being near a railway station will be a big plus. Being within 5 minutes walk (350m) is worth more than 12 minutes (see London again)


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## Arthur Daley (3 Nov 2006)

A metro/luas blows away all these QBC's/bus routes for anyone who actually uses the bus. Dublin needs about 6 more luas/metro lines to compare with any other modern European city. There will still be huge swathes of greater Dublin miles from proper public transport even by 2012 once the Metro North is built. As for prices I agree that the luas has taught us that the full benefit of the service isn't factored into property prices until the line is there for people to see and use.


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## DonKing (31 Dec 2006)

Arthur Daley said:


> A metro/luas blows away all these QBC's/bus routes for anyone who actually uses the bus. Dublin needs about 6 more luas/metro lines to compare with any other modern European city. There will still be huge swathes of greater Dublin miles from proper public transport even by 2012 once the Metro North is built. As for prices I agree that the luas has taught us that the full benefit of the service isn't factored into property prices until the line is there for people to see and use.



I second this. I don't normally use buses that often but we spent over 45 mins waiting for the 25A bus in Lucan when we and a couple of friends went out to dinner in the City centre before Christmas. The 25A runs for some parts on a QBC. 

Hopefully when the Adamstown station opens and the Kildare line is upgraded we will have a reliable frequent method of public transport to the City. I would imagine when the station opens with a decent train service then it could only have a positive effect on the demand for houses in my area (I think I'll be about 8minutes walk away).


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