# Brexit talks at the final but most important hurdle



## joe sod (6 Dec 2020)

It seems that this is the real thing now with regard to the Brexit talks, suddenly fisheries largely dismissed as not that economically important is now on course to derail the whole thing, France wants more access to UK waters and has threatened to veto any deal if it does not get its way. Even Ireland is now criticising the French for potentially jeapordising the deal.
As for environmentalim and Paris agreements the French throw all that out the window when it comes to carving up resources, they want to keep fishing as much as before and if they cant do it in Uk waters they will do it in Irish waters and there is nothing we can do about it. Alot of environmentalism is really just window dressing as is now being proven. The same thing is happening in Africa in the scramble for rare earth metals that are vital in the manufacture of electric cars.


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## odyssey06 (6 Dec 2020)

France are a law unto themselves when it comes to the EU.


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## WolfeTone (6 Dec 2020)

I was listening to George Eustice, British minister for fish on Sophy Ridge. 
The issue seems to be a British insistence on having full sovereignty over its territorial waters and that signing a treaty that permits EU vessels then sovereignty is ceded. Which from a Brexit perspective would be a capitulation of the British government. 
It was mentioned, but not confirmed, that Britain was offering a 3yr status quo on fisheries. That access to British waters would be reviewed every 3yrs but that ultimately sovereignty must reside with the British and that they cannot possibly cede fishing rights in perpetuity in treaty form. 

On the face of it doesn't seem unreasonable until it is factored that UK is apparently ceding authority on everything else by agreeing to 'a level playing' concept with EU standards and regulations in order to have access in perpetuity to the SM. 

It looks more like the fishing issue and access to waters has become a symbol of sovereignty 'Britannia rules the waves' if you will. If Johnson cedes sovereignty here he will not have delivered a true Brexit. 

What a bunch of idiots.


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## horusd (7 Dec 2020)

I read somewhere yesterday that fishing represents 0.04 % (not even 0.1%) of the UK economy. Brexit was never about economics - if it was it wouldn't have happened. It strikes me as the  inevitable outcome of 45 years of anti-EU ranting from the British right-wing press, and it is needs to be worked out of the UK political and social system before anything changes.

In a sense the UK needs to settle in its new place somewhere down  from it's former place in the world, and it needs to deal with that as an actual reality. The chickens of Brexit need to come home to roost, the lessons of the folly of Brexit be absorbed (assuming that can happen, rather than a blame game with IRL firmly in the sights) before anything changes. When you're fed lie after lie  about Europe (bendy banana's anyone?) and you are fed a lie about the importance of your country on the world stage which you might dearly love to believe - it will take some time for a few reality pennies to drop, for you to really wake up and smell the coffee, to mix a few metaphors.  The trouble is, there will be real blood on the floor, but it won't be Farage's or Tory toffs like Rees-Mogg, it'll be in bleak places like Scunthorpe  or Grimsby, and formerly wealthy places like the City that take the hit. There seems an inevitability to this painful process. Up to now, the effects of Brexit have been fairly under the radar, but that will change  very quickly after the transition period, and the least of those worries will be longer queues at airports whenever COVID goes away.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (7 Dec 2020)

This is all just bluster on the British side. For domestic consumption they need to make it look like they've pulled off a last-minute victory.

The EU don't care all that much about the UK anymore. They hold all the cards.

Amazed at how many fall for this.


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## joe sod (7 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> read somewhere yesterday that fishing represents 0.04 % (not even 0.1%) of the UK economy. Brexit was never about economics - if it was it wouldn't have happened.



That statistic has to be wrong, that the whole UK fishing industry is only .04% of the economy !!!, I don't know where you read that but it couldn't be correct. I know that fishing is still small in the overall scheme of things especially compared to the city of London financial markets. Fishing is still very important because it is a natural resource, it is food and it is an indigenous industry, it has strategic importance. If it was the case that fishing was so negligible in monetary terms why are the French threatening to veto any agreement if they don't maintain access to UK waters. It's also the case that the UK fishing industry is a lot smaller than its potential (ala Ireland s) because of the common fisheries policy.


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## Zebedee (7 Dec 2020)

For me the movement of Sterling is a good measure of likelihood of a deal. Down 0.5 pc this morning.


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## EmmDee (7 Dec 2020)

joe sod said:


> That statistic has to be wrong, that the whole UK fishing industry is only .04% of the economy !!!, I don't know where you read that but it couldn't be correct. I know that fishing is still small in the overall scheme of things especially compared to the city of London financial markets. Fishing is still very important because it is a natural resource, it is food and it is an indigenous industry, it has strategic importance. If it was the case that fishing was so negligible in monetary terms why are the French threatening to veto any agreement if they don't maintain access to UK waters. It's also the case that the UK fishing industry is a lot smaller than its potential (ala Ireland s) because of the common fisheries policy.



The statistic is correct. Two retaillers announced closures in the last week (Debanhams & Top Shop I think). There are more people employed by those two than the entire fishing industry in the UK

The problem with the food / natural resource argument is that most of the UK catch is exported to Europe. There is very little demand in the UK for the natural catch in UK waters. Most of it goes to France (which is why France is interested) and Spain. Most of the consumption in the UK is imported.

Also - a lot of the UK quota was sold by UK fishermen to Europeans - which is why they are so restricted in quotas. They sold them


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## Leo (7 Dec 2020)

EmmDee said:


> The statistic is correct. Two retaillers announced closures in the last week (Debanhams & Top Shop I think). There are more people employed by those two than the entire fishing industry in the UK



Yep, it's up to 0.5% at best, and apparently dipped to 0.12% last year. This is just another example of an area that is simple for people to understand, and so it is exploited in the mass media.


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## Steven Barrett (7 Dec 2020)

EmmDee said:


> The statistic is correct. Two retaillers announced closures in the last week (Debanhams & Top Shop I think). There are more people employed by those two than the entire fishing industry in the UK
> 
> The problem with the food / natural resource argument is that most of the UK catch is exported to Europe. There is very little demand in the UK for the natural catch in UK waters. Most of it goes to France (which is why France is interested) and Spain. Most of the consumption in the UK is imported.
> 
> Also - a lot of the UK quota was sold by UK fishermen to Europeans - which is why they are so restricted in quotas. They sold them



That's what makes the whole thing so crazy. They want complete control over their fishing waters but if they do and there's a no deal, they won't be able to sell their fish to the European market as it will be too expensive with tariffs, so the catch will rot. 

They've had 4.5 years to work on an agreement but instead of getting to work, the UK government has flaffed about and made bold gestures that would never be workable or accepted by the other side. Even from a logistical point of view, they are completely unprepared which is unbelievable for an island nation that ships everything by lorry and ferry. The customs app is being launched in Christmas week in English only when most of the lorry drivers aren't English and won't understand it. 

They seem to think that the EU needs them more than they need us. I will be looking on with interest to see how this unfolds.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (7 Dec 2020)

joe sod said:


> That statistic has to be wrong, that the whole UK fishing industry is only .04% of the economy !!!,



It is actually about 0.1%, I checked it again recently.

It is an industry that is very easy to _understand_, however, which is why it tends to get oversized attention.


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## horusd (7 Dec 2020)

The article quoting the 0.04% was in the Irish Times at the weekend, I'll see if I can locate it.  I think the mistake in looking at this issue is to view it thru a logical lens.  This, it seems to me, is a gut level, emotional and reactionary event fueled by years of right-wing  Tory -press yabbering. It is not a little ironic that the Tories who championed the Single Market under Thatcher seem so eager to take their ball and walk off the pitch crying about the dead-hand of the EU keeping them from the sunlit uplands where destiny awaits. I really don't wish it on the British, but as the old lad in the Simpsons is fond of sayin "... storm's acoming."


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## Leo (7 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> This, it seems to me, is a gut level, emotional and reactionary event fueled by years of right-wing Tory -press yabbering.



It's just like all the hype about the EU banning bendy bananas! The truth is secondary.


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## horusd (8 Dec 2020)

Leo said:


> It's just like all the hype about the EU banning bendy bananas! The truth is secondary.


This from Fintan O'Toole in the Irish Times "...And the hard reality is that it is the EU that owns the pitch (the single market) and sets the rules. Britain ultimately has to decide whether it wants to play there or carry on with its own eccentric, inward and terminally inconclusive game. "


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## Steven Barrett (8 Dec 2020)

And while they fight over fisheries, there's no mention of financial services which represents 6.9% of UK GDP. This is an industry that has already seen lots of business move to other EU countries as the businesses simply couldn't wait for the incompetent UK government to get a deal in place. Imagine running a multi billion dollar financial company and having to wait on Johnson to figure something out, with just over 3 weeks to go? Hearing him say "I would just say to everybody – be in good cheer, there are great options ahead for our country on any view. " wouldn't fill me with confidence, it's just bluster.


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## joe sod (8 Dec 2020)

I see Boris Johnson travelling to Brussels tomorrow to meet Ursula Von der lyon for dinner, I think this is a very good thing hopefully this can break the impasse. Im sure the new spitting image will have a good skit for this dinner, one thing for sure they will not be having for dinner and that is fish


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## horusd (8 Dec 2020)

It will be interesting to see the reaction of the more extreme  Tory press, and of course, Farage, who is the tail now wagging the Tory dog. I can;t imagine they'll be particularly happy.


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## joe sod (10 Dec 2020)

Nothing much came of that meeting so maybe a deal is not to be done afterall. If a no deal turns out to be the case and if EU fishing is barred from UK waters well then all those quotas will be concentrated in irish waters, if that turns out to be the case then the total EU fishing quotas need to be cut in accordance with the fish that are not being taken out of the UK waters. If the EU does not do something like this well then it makes a mockery of all of the environmental directives that they have introduced in the last decade.


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## Steven Barrett (10 Dec 2020)

The Brits are playing a very weak game. It stuck me when Johnson was complaining about the EU wanting an evolution clause that they are acting that it is only a one way provision. If the UK change standards or conditions, they will want the imported goods and services to meet their standards too. Or do they only think about goods they are exporting? Or they haven't thought that far ahead to think that future conditions would change? Having a prime minister who is untrustworthy and "is not a details guy" is a big problem for the UK when trying to negotiate a hugely detailed deal. The EU will want everything confirmed in writing as Johnson is so untrustworthy, if it's not signed, sealed and delivered, he'll just go back on it.


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## joe sod (10 Dec 2020)

SBarrett said:


> The Brits are playing a very weak game.


I noticed that alright, Boris had the hang dog look about him last night when standing beside Ursula, the suit was a bit frumpy. Its like he did that on purpose , its like he wanted to come across as humble and amenable last night because he was the one travelling to meet her in Brussels. However I think it is a mistake not to give him something because everyone needs a deal especially Ireland. If the UK crashes out it will be damaging for the EU aswell the dissenting voices of Poland and Hungary will become stronger and will just fuel the narrative there that the EU is another over bearing unyielding Soviet Union (albeit without an army but thats what Macron wants).


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## Steven Barrett (10 Dec 2020)

Johnson is a fool. I was embarrassed for him standing there for the photos. There is a man who was in intensive care due to Covid being treated like a school kid on how to be socially distant and when to wear a mask. 

I agree, a no deal is bad to the EU and especially Ireland but the UK have been unrealistic in what they are looking for. Other countries have to meet standardards to trade with the EU and the UK shouldn't be any different. I'd say it is very difficult to even try to give them something when they insist on having a free trade agreement with no obligations on them. You can see with how unprepared they are, that they are being led by an entire cabinet of incompetents. I'd say it'll like trying to negotiate with a child.


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## EmmDee (10 Dec 2020)

Saw a rumour that topic of extending another year has been raised at civil service level with the EU. If true it really is amateur hour - they had that option earlier this year and it was obvious they needed to extend. Now it looks desperate and just putting off the tough domestic decisions they will eventually have to address


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## joe sod (10 Dec 2020)

Maybe that could happen, but Johnson would be toast then, the brexiteers would descend on him like pirahna fish. Johnson yesterday was a very diminished figure though, I think the corona has really taken it out of him, the bumbling enthusiasm is gone. The UK stock market is unaffected and is up today so obviously they think some sort of fudge will be cobbled together. The corona virus had a much bigger effect than brexit, the vaccine is still more important than brexit


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## horusd (10 Dec 2020)

I heard an interesting perspective yesterday (can't remember where) saying that the  Brexiteer's obsession with the UK's sovereignty would make ANY trade deal impossible. All trade deals involve surrendering some sovereignty.

In  fairness tho, I do think there's room to maneuver on fish quota's  in the UK's favour to allow the it to have a fig-leaf over the level paying field, which they absolutely will need to give way on.

I genuinely wonder if the UK perhaps  *needs *to crash out, if there needs to be chaos in order for that infamous and elusive British 'pragmatism' to steal back the debate from the loony right-wing of Tories and Ukipers . This will hurt us but maybe it is a price worth paying to get the adults back into the room of UK governance.


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## odyssey06 (10 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> I heard an interesting perspective yesterday (can't remember where) saying that the  Brexiteer's obsession with the UK's sovereignty would make ANY trade deal impossible. All trade deals involve surrendering some sovereignty.



They have signed post EU trade deals with Japan, Canada, Singapore, Israel, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and blocs of South American, Central American and Caribbean countries.


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## horusd (10 Dec 2020)

odyssey06 said:


> They have signed post EU trade deals with Japan, Canada, Singapore, Israel, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and blocs of South American, Central American and Caribbean countries.


So, they only have a problem pooling sovereignty with it's largest neighbour...


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## Leo (10 Dec 2020)

Most of those deals just replicate all the existing parameters of the equivalent EU deals. Aren't some placeholders to keep the status quo while they negotiate new deals. They did a lot of shouting about the predicted boost to the UK economy coming from the deal with Japan, but deliberately chose 2018 as the baseline, before the EU-Japan deal took effect.


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## EmmDee (10 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> So, they only have a problem pooling sovereignty with it's largest neighbour...



Yup - they have this hang up with independence vs the EU yet will concede "sovereignty" in a flash if offered a US trade deal


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## Leo (10 Dec 2020)

EmmDee said:


> Yup - they have this hang up with independence vs the EU yet will concede "sovereignty" in a flash if offered a US trade deal



They just won't call it sovereignty, they'll come up with some other term more appealing to the masses.


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## john luc (10 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> I heard an interesting perspective yesterday (can't remember where) saying that the  Brexiteer's obsession with the UK's sovereignty would make ANY trade deal impossible. All trade deals involve surrendering some sovereignty.
> 
> In  fairness tho, I do think there's room to maneuver on fish quota's  in the UK's favour to allow the it to have a fig-leaf over the level paying field, which they absolutely will need to give way on.
> 
> I genuinely wonder if the UK perhaps  *needs *to crash out, if there needs to be chaos in order for that infamous and elusive British 'pragmatism' to steal back the debate from the loony right-wing of Tories and Ukipers . This will hurt us but maybe it is a price worth paying to get the adults back into the room of UK governance.


This wont work unless a trustworthy leader comes forward to lead the people back. I think acrimony will follow and blame trowing will be the order of the day.


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## joe sod (11 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> This will hurt us but maybe it is a price worth paying to get the adults back into the room of UK governance.


But there is also intransigence and bloody mindedness on the EU side, The EU position is really what Paris and Berlin decides what is and they are dictating what the EU script is which everyone else is just following verbatim. The talks were going  well enough until Paris took a hard line and threatened to veto the then potential agreement.


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## Paul O Mahoney (11 Dec 2020)

At this stage I'd let them off, and see how they cope its nonsensical and I know we will suffer from an economic perspective. 

They really are so stuck in the past its laughable and I simply cannot see them having the same influence on any global issue if they leave without a deal.

The UK doesn't and never has in the last 100 years produced enough food to feed its own population. Thats not going to change either so what are they going to do, buy sprouts from the Jamaicans?


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## Leo (11 Dec 2020)

joe sod said:


> The EU position is really what Paris and Berlin decides what is and they are dictating what the EU script is which everyone else is just following verbatim.



Isn't that really just another fallacy along the lines of the banning of bendy bananas? If Paris and Berlin dictate direction, how did Poland and Hungary achieve compromises on the recovery fund deal?


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## joe sod (11 Dec 2020)

@Leo yes fair points. With regard to Poland and Hungary yes the EU conceded some things because they needed to get the big budget and spending package through which they were threatening to vote against because the EU wanted to punish them for decisions they were making within their own countries. But that also goes to the heart of the Brexit arguments , should the EU have the power to sanction countries ( however distasteful in the eyes of the EU) that are outside the remit of the EU but are domestic political issues. In my opinion that is over reach and is actually damaging to the image of the EU and its long term future, it needs to keep the eastern european countries within the club and big bazukas of euros will no longer work as they get wealthier.
But hopefully that will also be the outcome of the withdrawal talks, that the EU has to concede some of the level playing stuff to the UK in exchange for access to the fishing grounds.


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## Leo (11 Dec 2020)

joe sod said:


> @Leo yes fair points. With regard to Poland and Hungary yes the EU conceded some things because they needed to get the big budget and spending package through which they were threatening to vote against because the EU wanted to punish them for decisions they were making within their own countries.



The point was really that from that public spat, it's quite clear that Paris and Berlin do not dictate and don't always get their way. The merits or otherwise of that deal are probably for another thread. 

The narrative that the UK are sick of being dictated to by Europe isn't backed up by the facts. They voted against only 2% of the >2,500 laws passed over the last 20 years, with a reputation for successfully blocking or altering many more proposals they did not approve of before they ever got to the voting stage.


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## EmmDee (11 Dec 2020)

The fact that the EU agreed to put the Irish border question in their primary tranche of issues would point to the fact that Paris / Berlin don't dictate everything. Or at least they put greater importance on protecting interests of smaller member states over larger 3rd country interests. 

Compare that to the UK Parliament and Govt treatment of it's smaller regions


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## horusd (11 Dec 2020)

The EU is generally beneficial for smaller countries. It's one of its selling points, Smaller countries can club together to resist domination by the bigger lads. As for Poland and Hungary, these countries are borderline autocracies where the rule of law is being undermined. The EU is a rules-based, liberal club. It should enforce minimum legal standards, and these should have been put in place years ago, just no one really thought that the EU could end up nurturing the likes of Urban in its mix. A bit like the EU's lack of preparation for the Euro.  I think IRL or other western EU stats rightly baulk at funding right-wing reactionary autocrats as they undermine the legal systems and the free-press  in their countries, that want EU cash but not EU burden sharing, as in the asylum issue.   As an aside, the EU's law-based approach will also protect minorities, women, gay people, in places like Poland and Hungary.


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## joe sod (11 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> just no one really thought that the EU could end up nurturing the likes of Urban in its mix.



_"Orbán became a nationally known politician after giving an address at the 1989 reburial of Imre Nagy and other martyrs of the 1956 revolution, in which he openly demanded that Soviet troops withdraw from the country. "_


just for some backround on Urban he was a key figure in the fall of the soviet union in Hungary and showed some personal bravery in speaking out against it, thats the backround of the eastern european countries that we don't fully get in Western Europe. Its 80 years since western europe experienced totalitarianism  but its only 30 years since they did in Poland and Hungary and it lasted over 40 years aswell. While it is an exagerration to equivocate between the EU and the Soviet Union it is also a gross exagerration to equivocate between Orban today and Nazism which some people try to do.


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## nest egg (11 Dec 2020)

Did anyone see Question Time last night? They had a former Australian PM on who told a few home truths, spelling out exactly what an "Australian style" agreement really means. Given he's neutral in the EU/UK negotiations, it was hard for the politicians to argue against his points. He also called a spade a spade, stating the obvious that the EU is simply looking after its own rational self interests, just like the UK is trying to do. Refreshing.

He speaks at 5mins, 13mins & 22mins if you don't have the time to watch the whole piece (LINK).


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## WolfeTone (12 Dec 2020)

Bertie, renowned in his time for his negotiation skills, has thrown his tuppence worth in. He reckons the decision that the trade negotiations must finish on the 31st Dec was a mistake. He reckons that it can still be extended. 
That is where my money will be, a postponement of talks to facilitate a push-back of the deadline. 
If, after all, a 'no-deal' emerges is it won't be long before a new round of talks will be required to resolve the pronlems emerging from no-deal.


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## horusd (12 Dec 2020)

That'll be Bertie' I didn't have de dinner'  Personally, I think de Brits, and by that I mean de English Nationalists, need to sit on the naughty step and reflect on what they've done for a while.  Brexit is still theoretical. When the queues build up in Kent, when jobs losses in auto factories and the City start making an appearance on the news, when feta  cheese goes up a whopping 55% as forecasted, then things might change.

Sadly, and I do think it is sad, its only Brits who can convince themselves that Brexit was a mistake, that no deal is a mistake, that the multi-millionaire toffs like Rees-Mogg, MP for thr 17th century  and his ilk like Dyson and the bloke who owns Land Rover  now racing for the exit, having sung Rule Britannia like they were at the last day of the Proms. The rolling out of the Royal Navy to defend British waters is a last roll of the dice. It would be hugely amusing of so much wasn't riding on it.

From an Irish perspective, it may be the  painful but shock that redirects our trade to farther shores and maybe even hasten reunification, which  will give poor Sammy Wilson apoplexy. It's an ill wind that blows no good.


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## Protocol (12 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> Brexit is still theoretical.



It happened on 31-Jan 2020.


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## horusd (12 Dec 2020)

Protocol said:


> It happened on 31-Jan 2020.


 Eh, 'Transition period.' Chickens haven't come home to roost.


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## Paul O Mahoney (12 Dec 2020)

Let them off the .... "gun boats" in the channel but no food on the table.


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## Gordon Gekko (13 Dec 2020)

I read that there are only 12,000 people employed in the UK fishing industry and that lots of those are part-time, so you’re talking about less than 10,000 full-time roles.

Versus financial services which employs 1.2 million people.

The UK government are a shambles.


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## theo67 (13 Dec 2020)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I read that there are only 12,000 people employed in the UK fishing industry and that lots of those are part-time, so you’re talking about less than 10,000 full-time roles.
> 
> Versus financial services which employs 1.2 million people.
> 
> The UK government are a shambles.



Probably quite a number of that 12k are pesky foreigners from EU given that it is tough,low paid work.


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## RedOnion (13 Dec 2020)

There was an excellent series on BBC earlier this year that got behind the scenes of the UK fishing industry, and brought out some of the contradictions about the feelings towards the EU. 'Cornwall: this fishing life'.

As mentioned above, the industry is completely reliant on cheap EU labour, both working on trawlers and in processing plants. There's an excellent scene during the series where the fishermen, who are almost universally pro-Brexit, realise that their harbour redevelopment can't go ahead as it was going to be funded by the EU.

The whole focus on fishing has nothing to do with money or economics, but everything to do with hanging on to any remains of control possible for 'The Empire'.


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## Saavy99 (13 Dec 2020)

Looks like there will be another extension, the uncertainty continues.


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## Zebedee (13 Dec 2020)

There’ll be extensions right up to the end of the year!

I can see the french fisherman blockading Calais if they don’t get their share of the fish. I suspect French govt may not be too bothered about it.


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## joe sod (13 Dec 2020)

Saavy99 said:


> Looks like there will be another extension, the uncertainty continues.


Hopefully you are right, but Dan O Brien was very pessimistic on radio this morning saying he expects a no deal now because of the politics on both sides. I think there will have to be movement on both sides though , suddenly the reality of brexit is starting to hit home especially here in Ireland, Michael martin was texting Johnson about trying to get a deal presumably he is also onto Macron and Merkel or else he is wasting his time because we are the meat in this sandwich.


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## Hooverfish (14 Dec 2020)

I think Denis Staunton https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/...-his-course-for-a-brexit-trade-deal-1.4435704 and Tony Connelly (https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1212/1183991-tony-connelly-brexit/ and https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1214/1184260-brexit-talks-eu-uk/ ) have it nailed - a figleaf deal it is then... but possibly not until January.


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## horusd (15 Dec 2020)

Polly Toynbee also has a great article on the Great Waffler Boris. https://www.theguardian.com/comment...nson-brexit-deal-prime-minister-polls-no-deal 

There will be skin and hair flying in the Jingoistic  rags if and when the deal goes through. Personally, I think we need to move on from the Brits. De Gaulle was right in the '60's.  The Brits are hostile to the idea of the EU.


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## john luc (15 Dec 2020)

When all is said and done truth will be the victim here and like the old communist governments usual declaration that their 5 year economic plans are a success when they were in truth failures, the UK governments will do the same and after 5 years declare it a success.


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## nest egg (15 Dec 2020)

joe sod said:


> ...Dan O Brien was very pessimistic on radio this morning...



That's nearly understating it, he was apocalyptic... I like Dan but I think he's called it wrong on this occasion. The British & European economies have nearly 50 years of integration, there simply is no way they will walk away without a deal, especially the British, as, parking the economic damage, the Tories would face political damage from the electorate, who they've told, Brexit will have no real consequences.

I think the fish topic is a red herring, pardon the pun, a straw man they know they can get a victory from, albeit a pyrrhic one, as they quietly accept the on-going level playing field.


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## letitroll (15 Dec 2020)

Cant rule out an accident with time pressures and other member states with the power to say NO once presented the deal however what I'm hearing on key components seems like a way for both to get what they want & fudge the rest. Health warning - This is as of the evening of Dec 15th.

(1) Principle of non-regression seems established and accepted by both sides - Singapore-On-Thames fear is removed..........EU can relax and allow quota free and full access for goods.

(2) Dynamic alignment demand has been removed by the EU.......the UK can be happy, its sovereignty is respected. They set their own rules no matter what moving forward and can choose their own destiny ( but just inherit and leave untouched the EU derived standards built up over 40 years) see no.1

(3) Divergence in standards in the future will have some competitive arbitration mechanism (NOT ECJ!!!) that will asses harm/benefit conferred by such divergence and allow for levies to be added in such instances to restore 'the level playing field' for European companies. BOTH Sovereignty & the Single Market is protected under this mechanism.

The above provides all a landing zone and a story for their political audiences.................future iterations of the UK government and EU will have to deal with questions of divergence.........in practice like so many other countries (with much smaller proportions of their trade exported to the EU than the UK) the Brits will effectively shadow EU standards with linguistic flourishes so they appear different, appear independently derived and give the appearance sovereignty.


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## nest egg (15 Dec 2020)

letitroll said:


> Cant rule out an accident with time pressures and other member states with the power to say NO once presented the deal however what I'm hearing on key components seems like a way for both to get what they want & fudge the rest. Health warning - This is as of the evening of Dec 15th.
> 
> (1) Principle of non-regression seems established and accepted by both sides - Singapore-On-Thames fear is removed..........EU can relax and allow quota free and full access for goods.
> 
> ...



Fully agree with your sentiments on the "window dressing" going on, as by having (3), (2) is academic. Round and round we go, but it always boils down to the same basic issue, if the UK wants access to the EU market, tariff-free, they have to abide by the rules. This inevitably begs the question, if they have to abide by the rules (& worse, are no longer involved in deciding what they are), what was the point in leaving in the first place? That's too bitter a pill for the Tories to swallow at this stage, so we're down to how they put lipstick on a pig.


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## letitroll (16 Dec 2020)

mojoask said:


> Fully agree with your sentiments on the "window dressing" going on, as by having (3), (2) is academic. Round and round we go, but it always boils down to the same basic issue, if the UK wants access to the EU market, tariff-free, they have to abide by the rules. This inevitably begs the question, if they have to abide by the rules (& worse, are no longer involved in deciding what they are), what was the point in leaving in the first place? That's too bitter a pill for the Tories to swallow at this stage, so we're down to how they put lipstick on a pig.


Agreed

Likewise if you read the history of the UK in Europe Boris’s much smarter political forefathers figured this out back in the 1970’s......they were always Euroskeptics.......but realized that it was better to be at the table shaping the conversation than outside dealing with the consequences of the decisions your largest trading partners and security ally’s are making.

UK had in IMO the best of all worlds- they had retained their monetary independence, had access to the world’s largest single market and were the deciding vote in the three way German-UK-French European axis . Their strategic importance globally was enhanced by being the key interface by which the United States interacted/influenced European economic policy and by extension a linch pin of the NATO alliance.

All of the above is greatly diminished - the UK through EU membership was a nation punching above its weight...... now they’ll be punching exactly at their weight.


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## Sadim (16 Dec 2020)

WolfeTone said:


> Bertie, renowned in his time for his negotiation skills, has thrown his tuppence worth in. He reckons the decision that the trade negotiations must finish on the 31st Dec was a mistake. He reckons that it can still be extended.
> That is where my money will be, a postponement of talks to facilitate a push-back of the deadline.
> If, after all, a 'no-deal' emerges is it won't be long before a new round of talks will be required to resolve the pronlems emerging from no-deal.



The Brexiteers will go nuts if they announce another extension notwithstanding that is exactly what is required. I heard from a person in teh know that their GVMS system isn't even ready yet, it hasn't even been fully built never mind tested. The GVMS system issues the critical GMR (Goods Moverment Reference) to truck drivers without which they cannot board the ferry!!!

That suggests to me they need time and maybe there will be a stand-still or implementation period or something like that, anything but call it an extension


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## Sadim (16 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> That'll be Bertie' I didn't have de dinner'  Personally, I think de Brits, and by that I mean de English Nationalists, need to sit on the naughty step and reflect on what they've done for a while.  Brexit is still theoretical. When the queues build up in Kent, when jobs losses in auto factories and the City start making an appearance on the news, when feta  cheese goes up a whopping 55% as forecasted, then things might change.
> 
> Sadly, and I do think it is sad, its only Brits who can convince themselves that Brexit was a mistake, that no deal is a mistake, that the multi-millionaire toffs like Rees-Mogg, MP for thr 17th century  and his ilk like Dyson and the bloke who owns Land Rover  now racing for the exit, having sung Rule Britannia like they were at the last day of the Proms. The rolling out of the Royal Navy to defend British waters is a last roll of the dice. It would be hugely amusing of so much wasn't riding on it.
> 
> From an Irish perspective, it may be the  painful but shock that redirects our trade to farther shores and maybe even hasten reunification, which  will give poor Sammy Wilson apoplexy. It's an ill wind that blows no good.



Cracking observations and I couldn't agree more. The bit I am surprised at though is the silence from influential business groups like the CBI or The City (13% of UK GDP!)


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## Allpartied (16 Dec 2020)

Sadim said:


> The Brexiteers will go nuts if they announce another extension notwithstanding that is exactly what is required. I heard from a person in teh know that their GVMS system isn't even ready yet, it hasn't even been fully built never mind tested. The GVMS system issues the critical GMR (Goods Moverment Reference) to truck drivers without which they cannot board the ferry!!!
> 
> That suggests to me they need time and maybe there will be a stand-still or implementation period or something like that, anything but call it an extension



Brexit is really a political issue.  There is no logical reason for it, from an economic or  business or commercial point of view.  So for that reason the negotiators ( particularly the British negotiators)  will have to judge the political impact of another delay.  Like a plane lumbering down the runway, with a broken engine, there is a point of no return. You have to take off and deal with the problems in the air.  I get the feeling that Brexit is too far down the political runway and they will have to go for it this time.  The calculation might be that they have to get on with it, and then deal with the consequences as they occur.


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## Sadim (16 Dec 2020)

Allpartied said:


> Brexit is really a political issue.  There is no logical reason for it, from an economic or  business or commercial point of view.  So for that reason the negotiators ( particularly the British negotiators)  will have to judge the political impact of another delay.  Like a plane lumbering down the runway, with a broken engine, there is a point of no return. You have to take off and deal with the problems in the air.  I get the feeling that Brexit is too far down the political runway and they will have to go for it this time.  The calculation might be that they have to get on with it, and then deal with the consequences as they occur.



That is an exceptionally high risk strategy and would cause a lot of collateral damage! If you cannot feed or cloth your people in January there will be hell to pay and fine, you can blame it on the EU, the French fishermen, the Irish the lot but it still doesn't sort your problems. What are your options the... go to war!


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## Sadim (16 Dec 2020)

Allpartied said:


> Brexit is really a political issue.  There is no logical reason for it, from an economic or  business or commercial point of view.  So for that reason the negotiators ( particularly the British negotiators)  will have to judge the political impact of another delay.  Like a plane lumbering down the runway, with a broken engine, there is a point of no return. You have to take off and deal with the problems in the air.  I get the feeling that Brexit is too far down the political runway and they will have to go for it this time.  The calculation might be that they have to get on with it, and then deal with the consequences as they occur.



I also happen to think that yes, it is a political project but I believe very wealthy backers have supported Brexit with the idea of cashing in with their shorts on Sterling (I saw articles about huge short positions published over the summer) and they are using the political class as useful idiots. Decent politicians of substance like Clarke, Grieve, Gauke etc have all been purged.


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## WolfeTone (21 Dec 2020)

So it was France then. 
After 4yrs of the Brexit quagmire, of soft-Brexit, hard-Brexit, Canadain, Australian style deal, of no-deal, of international law-breaking, of no-backstop, yes-backstop. 
It was the French who took control of their own borders. 
How the Brexiteers can turn up for any more negotiation without egg all over their face I do not know.


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## odyssey06 (24 Dec 2020)

Some sort of brexit deal has been agreed... details still being digested.
No tariffs or quotas but will be more checks on goods between UK and EU.
Seems like EU will get more access to UK fishing grounds than initially offered.
Subject to 4 year review to ensure level playing field respected - if not then tariffs or quotas could be levied.









						Brexit relief but not celebrations for Irish business
					

The sound of rustling is emanating from businesses all over the country this evening, as they unwrap an early Christmas present.




					www.rte.ie


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## joe sod (24 Dec 2020)

its a deal nonetheless and a relief for our indigenous industries already hammered by covid and lockdowns. If there was no brexit deal the consequences would have been severe for all of us, shortages in supermarkets here aswell as UK as so much of our processed and fresh food comes from the UK. A victory for common sense and pragmatism at the end of it all


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## odyssey06 (24 Dec 2020)

More details here. While no tariffs or quotas as UK is leaving single market there will no longer be free movement of people, goods, services or students.








						A look at the detail: What is in the Brexit trade deal?
					

From what has been published so far, the UK conceded on both fisheries and the level playing field, while the EU conceded on governance.




					www.thejournal.ie
				




On fisheries Irish fishermen are unhappy:
Under the deal announced today, the EU will hand back to the UK 25% of the value of fish stocks caught by European boats in British waters, having originally proposed to hand back between just 15% and 18%.
Earlier this week, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier rejected a push by UK diplomats to reduce EU access to British fish stocks by as much as 35%.








						'We won't accept this': Post-Brexit trade agreement disappoints Irish fishing industry
					

Meanwhile, business groups are cautiously optimistic about the deal




					www.thejournal.ie


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## horusd (25 Dec 2020)

Guy Verhofstadt  (MEP) posted this on Twitter about the chaos at Dover."_We forgot what borders look like. Some thought they would remain open with or without the EU. They will now start to understand what leaving the EU really means..._ ".  He was roundly roasted by many Twitterati some more Twit that Twitter to be fair.  Here's one keyboard warrior's comment:" _Some forgot what Nazis look like but just one look at you will remind them what the Third Reich was and what it's aims for Europe were. You didn't win in 1945, you will not win now._" 

I don't see a future for the UK in the EU for at least a generation, if not more.  Reading some of the comments, (and I accept it draws a certain type of commentator), I think the concept of the EU is toxic.  We in the EU don't need the grief, and IRL can begin forging new links with the Continent.   We have already started with extra shipping lanes.   Now, with the EU out of the immediate framework as the go to 'baddie and kicking boy,'  there will be less opportunity for nefarious politicians in Westminster and Belfast to avoid responsibility. I also think Scotland is in play to leave the UK, and Northern Ireland may well get a taste for being inside the EU with the border down the Irish sea, and discover they rather like it. So, the Brexiter's and their cheerleaders in the Mail, Express and Telegraph may have started the ball rolling on the disintegration of the UK and not the EU.   Now that might be a turn for the books.


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## Opus2018 (25 Dec 2020)

Hi horusd,

I agree with your posting. Still I’m sure the ruling class of the UK will still use the bogeyman of the EU to explain away their problems even though they’re not part of it anymore. I think you made a small typo saying the concept of the EU is toxic whereas I think you meant UK?

I fully agree with you that we need to push on with forging new links with the rest of Europe. As you say it’s already happening with new port routes but also in terms of electricity supply via France etc.

As for the UK, well they can enjoy their slide into further mediocrity with the added bonus of a break up of the Union as a possibility as you said. I actually don’t care anymore as to what they do, to be perfectly honest with you.

Best,

Opus.


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## rob oyle (25 Dec 2020)

Brexit and the fragility of the Brexiteers have strangulated any real development at EU level for four years... even after the British left the EU earlier in the year, the diplomatic/administrative resources of the union were so heavily drained by the trading agreement with our neighbours that I am sure the EU civil service (and each country's own input) are more than relieved that a deal has been done. There are practicalities that will play out affecting almost everyone on this island at some point in the future (reintroduction of roaming rates for UK visits, no more Erasmus) but they'll be experienced and dealt with as things normalise. In the meantime, Ireland will get back to batting away ideas of tax code harmonisation and ambition on climate action at EU level!


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## horusd (25 Dec 2020)

Hi Opus, I did mean the idea of the EU (in parts  the UK social and political fields) is toxic, not the idea and growing reality of the EU - which at its heart is a  reimagined notion of identity countering the myriad of small 'nationalisms' the Continent is home to, and a ground source of conflict in the past. 

 I imagine the UK's relationship with its imagined past and its current status  will take time to work itself out. In a sense, the UK (meaning primarily England) needs to find peace with a role as a medium-sized European power and not some fantastical Shakespearean notion of a 'sceptered isle' different and exceptional in some kind of unknowable sense.  We saw this in the raw with the incredibly nationalistic pronouncements of Gavin Williamson on the COVID19 vaccine - the potential for self-delusion is great not so much because the lie is credible, rather it is because it appeals  to something deeply desired. We want to believe we are an exceptional person/country/race because it feeds our egos and calms our fears.


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## joe sod (25 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> Hi Opus, I did mean the idea of the EU (in parts the UK social and political fields) is toxic, not the idea and growing reality of the EU - which at its heart is a reimagined notion of identity countering the myriad of small 'nationalisms' the Continent is home to, and a ground source of conflict in the past.


But you could say that about any continent, what about the middle east or south east Asia, or Latin america, are they also not a "myriad of small 'nationalisms'", are they also not a bit backward for wanting their own small nationalism above for example an "Arab Union" in the middle east or a "Latin union" in South America etc. THe EU is the exception in the political world it is actually not the norm.
For example why is it essential for european countries to be contained in a Union but not for anybody else?


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## horusd (26 Dec 2020)

...*THe EU is the exception in the political world it is actually not the norm.*

This is  precisely what I am saying. The EU is a child of two catastrophic wars.   The essential idea initially was to make war impossible - hence the focus on the coal and steel industries.  The greater, evolving idea in the Treaty of Rome is ' ever closer union.'   This is arguably and logically  the USA in baby steps and agreement, except  it is focused much wider than a particular cultural, regional or ethnic set, it is broader than that and less defined.  I think the idea (and I think  all these concepts start with an idea) of the EU was born out of a speech  by Churchill  (of all people) in Zurich in1946: " We must build a kind of *United States of Europe*.. The structure of the United States of Europe, if well and truly built, will be such as to make the material strength of a single state less important.. If at first all the States of Europe are not willing or able to join the Union, we must nevertheless proceed to assemble and combine those who will and those who can.’   

*During this momentous speech, Churchill proclaimed:*


> *‘We cannot aim at anything less than the Union of Europe as a whole, and we look forward with confidence to the day when that Union will be achieved."*



More on this Churchillian notion here:

It is an irony of history that one of the founding father's of the EU was a Conservative Brit, and another (Thatcher) a founder of the Single Market.[/Q


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## joe sod (26 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> This is precisely what I am saying. The EU is a child of two catastrophic wars. The essential idea initially was to make war impossible


but history has moved on Europe no longer contains the big military powers it once did, in fact it depends on the US for its protection now. There are other far more dangerous and volatile countries in Asia that are nuclear armed. For example in terms of global peace a union between Pakistan and India would be far more beneficial in 2020 than a European one.


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## horusd (26 Dec 2020)

@joe sod. France and the UK are nuclear powers. Gun boats in the Channel ready to protect British waters recently demonstrate that war or conflict in Europe is not impossible.  The conceptual importance of the EU is a bit like the idea of democracy. You need to demonstrate how it works and that it works and this becomes the idea that changes the world. Hence, it is always an idea that is  both the most dangerous and liberating thing. The very idea and later the fact of European unity  on foot of two terrible wars  fueled by nationalisms demonstrates  a counter-narrative  to the likes of Trump, Putin and the wider world.


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## joe sod (26 Dec 2020)

horusd said:


> The very idea and later the fact of European unity on foot of two terrible wars fueled by nationalisms demonstrates a counter-narrative to the likes of Trump, Putin and the wider world.


But thats the past, not the future. Its 1950s thinking and euro centric in that Europe is still the centre and that future cataclysmic conflicts will come from Europe and that the EU is the protection against that. That narrative is now 70 years out of date because the most likely cataclysmic conflict will come from Asia and only last year Pakistan and India almost went to war again. Britain and France are the least likely of all nations to ever go to war sure they were allies in the last 2 world wars, you would have to go back to Napoleon to find them on opposite sides.


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## Brendan Burgess (26 Dec 2020)

This thread must now be complete as a deal has been done. 

Brendan


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