# The Boris deal



## cremeegg (17 Oct 2019)

So the backstop is gone. In its place alternative arrangements involving  NI being _de facto_ in the Customs Union but _de jure_ not in the Customs Union. Stormont to have a veto after 4 years.

What happens if Stormont votes against in 2026. Have we a hard border then.

I think Boris bluffed Leo off the pitch.

I hope I have misunderstood.


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## noproblem (17 Oct 2019)

If Boris gets this voted for on Saturday, or whenever in the House Of Commons he will reap some benefit. On the other hand, if this fails our own Leo will certainly be left looking awfully silly indeed. His smugness after his so called triumphant meeting will come back to haunt him and his nearest and dearest.


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## odyssey06 (17 Oct 2019)

The backstop is now the cornerstone.

Saturday in the House of Commons will be epic.

At this stage without DUP I dont know how it gets enough votes but I dunno where we go next if it fails...


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## WolfeTone (17 Oct 2019)

I can empathise with the DUP on matters of identity through flag-waving, loyalty to the Crown, GSTQ etc...but this VAT thing, are they really trying to say that UK VAT rates are fundamental to their identity? 
Are they really saying that, an abstract border in the Irish sea, where nobody lives, and where nobody's working lives or businesses will face any potential disruption, is fundamentally a threat to their identity??

How insecure and inward looking do you need to be to be that fragile?


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## Sarenco (17 Oct 2019)

cremeegg said:


> What happens if Stormont votes against in 2026.


Won't happen.

Pretty much can't happen, politically.

Leo/our senior civil servants have played a blinder.

it really doesn't matter whether Borris gets this through parliament on Saturday - he'll win the inevitable GE anyway.

It's all over folks.  Our boys done good.


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## cremeegg (17 Oct 2019)

Sarenco said:


> Won't happen.
> 
> Pretty much can't happen, politically.
> 
> ...



I hope you are right, but explain it for the slow learners anyway, what happens if Stormont votes against in 2026. And really *anything* can happen in NI politics


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## noproblem (17 Oct 2019)

Sarenco said:


> Won't happen.
> 
> Pretty much can't happen, politically.
> 
> ...



Good luck with that logic Leo


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## Sarenco (17 Oct 2019)

cremeegg said:


> I hope you are right, but explain it for the slow learners anyway, what happens if Stormont votes against in 2026. And really *anything* can happen in NI politics


Ultimately, it's a political judgement about a part of the world that I happen to know pretty well.

Of course you're right - Stormont "_could_" legally agree to exit the arrangement.  But the numbers will never be there.  The hard DUP position will never win majority support in NI.  

The funny thing about NI politics is that it is unusually predictable - the vast, vast majority vote along straight tribal lines (green/orange).  And that breaks roughly 50/50.

The (at the very most) 10% in the middle will never, ever vote to exit this deal.  Won't happen.


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## WolfeTone (18 Oct 2019)

I agree with Sacrenco. 
If this deal is passed, in six, twelve, eighteen months, nobody will be talking about different VAT, customs rates in NI. Certainly not the Remain parties. Certainly not the business and farming communities. 
The only way it becomes a political issue once again is if DUP or Orange Order make it an issue. Considering the predicament the DUP finds itself in today this would be political suicide. 
The 'cant be a border in the Irish sea' stance is the greatest hoax perpetuated on the people of Ireland and Britain for over a century or more. Nobody lives in the Irish sea, no communities potentially antagonised with border infrastructure, no businesses disrupted, no working people impeded at check points going about their daily lives. 
The DUP already agreed that checks could occur away from the land border between north and south. Those checks would occur at air and sea ports, the very same place where Irish sea border checks will take place.
The difference? The GFA is honoured, the integrity of the SM preserved, and NI status within the UK maintained. 

If this deal doesn't go through, Boris will sign the letter for an extension. He can spin it that his 'dead in a ditch' line was in the context of the backstop remaining as a condition of that extension. 
He has got rid of the backstop for Britain, so if MPs dont seal the deal, an extension is asked for, but the EU can refuse, meaning 31st Oct remains the deadline. 
An election is called, another request for an extension, an extension agreed to facilitate the election. The election will be about crashing out without a deal or accepting the deal , backstop removed. 
If Labour say they can get a better deal they will be trounced. If Lib Dems say they will revoke Art 50, they will make some headway but not enough. The brexit vote will split between Tories and Brexit party, and I think, with the backstop for Britain gone, the DUP will see how precious the British people think their union with NI really is (ie not overly precious). 

Boris will win, Britain out of EU, SM, CU. 
DUP under a bus.

Then the fun can really begin.


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## Early Riser (18 Oct 2019)

Sarenco said:


> Of course you're right - Stormont "_could_" legally agree to exit the arrangement. But the numbers will never be there.



The reason the DUP are so annoyed at this deal is that they know that the numbers will not be there. 

They wanted to keep their Stormont veto - not necessarily because they intended to use it (which would be highly unpopular among their own farmer/business supporters) but because they wanted the power that the threat of it would bring. That threat would keep them at the fulcrum of everything for the future.


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## Early Riser (18 Oct 2019)

WolfeTone said:


> DUP under a bus.



I'd say they are really regretting now not backing May's deal.


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## elacsaplau (18 Oct 2019)

Interesting commentary, WolfeTone

Part of me thinks the nice people in the DUP just needed to say NO one more time! Early Riser's points are probably much more on point.

If we take Betfair as an indicator of where things are now at, two points of note:

1. In relation to tomorrow's vote, in Betfair's notation, last night a No Vote was 1.6...……….right now, it's 1.15 (i.e. the _market _now ascribes a probability of 87% against a No vote tomorrow).

2. In relation to the next GE, whilst the Eton boys are 1.32 to get the most seats, it's 1.83 that there will be no overall majority.

I'm not sure where the money is to be made here? [Should I just take the not so patriotic 1.7 on offer for England/All Black double in the rugby instead?!…………..Read: I wouldn't be very comfortable laying that sporting outcome at those odds for any sort of serious money!]


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## noproblem (18 Oct 2019)

What odds on England losing, All Blacks losing and Boris's deal to get through the Commons vote? You'll get a run for your money and maybe, just maybe????????????


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## Drakon (18 Oct 2019)

Interestingly, in his Podcast on released Tuesday David McWilliams predicted more-or-less everything that occurred on Wednesday night:
Boris shafting the DUP
The Backstop being ditched
A border down the Irish Sea
NI kinda in and kinda out of the Customs Union
The EU ruling out a further extension (his opinions on this quite interesting)
Et cetera.


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## Drakon (18 Oct 2019)

As for BerFair, on the night of 23/06/2016 between the poles closing and midnight, Leave was bouncing between 8.0 and 10.0. 
That’s 7/1 to 9/1 in old money, or 12.5% to 10%. 
The reality was 52%.


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## elcato (18 Oct 2019)

Drakon said:


> nterestingly, in his Podcast on released Tuesday David McWilliams predicted more-or-less everything that occurred on Wednesday night:
> Boris shafting the DUP
> The Backstop being ditched
> A border down the Irish Sea
> ...


Wow, and he'll predict now that Christmas will fall on the 25th of December this year ...... you heard it first here folks


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## Early Riser (18 Oct 2019)

Drakon said:


> Interestingly, in his Podcast on released Tuesday David McWilliams predicted more-or-less everything that occurred on Wednesday night:
> Boris shafting the DUP
> The Backstop being ditched
> A border down the Irish Sea
> ...



Tony Connelly was reporting this outline from Brussels last Friday - except the bit about the extension, which the EU have rowed back on now anyway.


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## Drakon (18 Oct 2019)

Early Riser said:


> Tony Connelly was reporting this outline from Brussels last Friday - except the bit about the extension, which the EU have rowed back on now anyway.


Really?
I was at a wedding over the weekend and hadn’t been watching RTÉ.


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## Alkers86 (18 Oct 2019)

What was the possibility of there being another referendum in the UK, had the deal not been agreed? I think that would have been the most-favourable from an Irish / EU perspective?


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## cremeegg (18 Oct 2019)

Sarenco said:


> Of course you're right - Stormont "_could_" legally agree to exit the arrangement.



And what happens then. Does the UK have to rejoin the EU


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## PGF2016 (18 Oct 2019)

Sarenco said:


> Won't happen.
> 
> Pretty much can't happen, politically.
> 
> ...


Well not quite.  It's not all over yet. There is still the possibility of no deal if no free trade agreement is agread upon and if no extension is sought by the UK by June 2020. At the end of the transition period (Dec 2020) a no deal scenario would occur. Some of the hard Brexiters will support Boris tomorrow based on that possibility.


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## Purple (18 Oct 2019)

I hate to say it but the DUP have a point when they say that this deal breaches the spirit of the GFA.
The whole idea of power sharing was that both sides have to agree to stuff. Now it's just an overall majority.


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## Early Riser (18 Oct 2019)

Purple said:


> The whole idea of power sharing was that both sides have to agree to stuff



Like Brexit?


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## Purple (18 Oct 2019)

Early Riser said:


> Like Brexit?


No, this bit specifically relates to a vote by the assembly. That's the issue. You don't have to like them to see that they have a point.


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## Early Riser (18 Oct 2019)

Purple said:


> No, *this bit specifically relates to a vote by the assembly*. That's the issue. You don't have to like them to see that they have a point.



So take it out of the Assembly and put it  to popular vote - like Brexit. 

Brexit rode roughshod over the Good Friday/Belfast agreement, which was built on the basis of the greater membership of both communities in the EU - beyond the Irish/British dichotomy.

Not feeling a bit sorry for the DUP. They pushed for a hard Brexit - one that would do most damage to the northern settlement and would impose a border of some sort in Ireland. They never showed any concern about the Good Friday agreement or cross community buy-in.


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## Drakon (18 Oct 2019)

Early Riser said:


> Not feeling a bit sorry for the DUP. ... They never showed any concern about the Good Friday agreement or cross community buy-in.



Duh!
The DUP never signed up for the GFA/BA.


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## Early Riser (18 Oct 2019)

Drakon said:


> The DUP never signed up for the GFA/BA.



They signed up for it as modified in the St Andrews Agreement. Same principles apply.


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## Drakon (18 Oct 2019)

Early Riser said:


> They signed up for it as modified in the St Andrews Agreement.


Thank you.


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## elacsaplau (18 Oct 2019)

Sarenco said:


> Leo/our senior civil servants have played a blinder.



Fully agree. I think Simon Coveney deserves honourable mention also.


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## WolfeTone (18 Oct 2019)

Drakon said:


> Duh!
> The DUP never signed up for the GFA/BA.



True, so if they are serious about both sides having to agree, I dont think there is anything stopping them signing up to it today? They certainly seem to be signing its praises all of a sudden.


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## Drakon (18 Oct 2019)

WolfeTone said:


> True, so if they are serious about both sides having to agree, I dont think there is anything stopping them signing up to it today? They certainly seem to be signing its praises all of a sudden.



Probably because this talk of “a border on the Irish Sea” is essentially what the republicans and nationalists have essentially always wanted. 
Will this soon lead to a border poll?
If NI voted for a United Ireland in a border poll, I assume there would have to be a “Unity Poll” in the ROI?


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## Early Riser (18 Oct 2019)

Drakon said:


> Probably because this talk of “a border on the Irish Sea” is essentially what the republicans and nationalists have essentially always wanted.



They would certainly want this in preference to a land border in Ireland. But what they always essentially wanted was no Brexit.

Theresa May's deal with a UK backstop would have had no border in the Irish Sea and no land border in Ireland. But the DUP rejected this also, even though it too was acceptable to nationalists. 

So what is that they the DUP did want? To the best if my knowledge they have never said - beyond a "sensible Brexit". As they have rejected everything else is hard not to believe that what they really wanted was a land border in Ireland - and to hell with the consequences, whether economically or politically.

Both sides in NI are capable of intransigence. But on the Brexit issue it has been all one-sided.


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## Duke of Marmalade (18 Oct 2019)

Leo has played a blinder.  He has made a big concession in allowing the North alone decide whether there is a hard border on the island but he has got away with it!
My guess is the DUP secretly want Boris to win.  Gets Brexit out of the way for a while and yet they can claim they did their best.  The Unionist press in the North are really playing up that the Unionist community have been shafted - the DUP could not have supported this electorally.  I see David Trimble is giving the deal a glowing endorsement - trying to wrongfoot the DUP maybe, won't work.  The DUP have achieved their main aim, they have cemented themselves as the rock solid choice of Unionists in the North.
_Wolfie _it is not about having the same VAT rates. Countries in the EU are free to chose their VAT rates.  It is about the process of claiming rebates.  Claiming rebates of VAT takes place seemlessly  within the same VAT system - between systems it's a pain in the butt.  NI folk will be in the EU VAT system not the UK one - a further splash of green paint on their bright orange clothes.


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## Early Riser (18 Oct 2019)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> My guess is the DUP secretly want Boris to win



I see the logic in that - it would certainly get them out of a mess. But Sky were reporting earlier today about some members of the Tory "spartans" complaining about the agressiveness of the canvassing that was coming from some in the DUP (esp. Sammy Wilson) - to get them to vote against the deal tomorrow.


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## Duke of Marmalade (18 Oct 2019)

Early Riser said:


> I see the logic in that - it would certainly get them out of a mess. But Sky were reporting earlier today about some members of the Tory "spartans" complaining about the agressiveness of the canvassing that was coming from some in the DUP (esp. Sammy Wilson) - to get them to vote against the deal tomorrow.


That certainly would go against my contrarian narrative.  Can't see how the DUP can now think they will ever get what they say they want, they should want off the hook.


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## RichInSpirit (18 Oct 2019)

Sinn Féin could provide the necessary votes to get this over the line. Just a once off in the national interest.


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## Early Riser (18 Oct 2019)

RichInSpirit said:


> Sinn Féin could provide the necessary votes to get this over the line. Just a once off in the national interest.



True that - but it is not going to happen.

On the other hand, if Sinn Fein MPs turned up in the Commons to vote tomorrow it would probably be enough to push several of the Tory spartans back into the "No" lobby with the DUP!


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## WolfeTone (18 Oct 2019)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> My guess is the DUP secretly want Boris to win.



I agree. Its GFA all over again, kind of. Staunch hardened opposition against it, but fast forward in time and Dodds and Foster cant help remind us of the damage we are doing to it. 



Duke of Marmalade said:


> It is about the process of claiming rebates. Claiming rebates of VAT takes place seemlessly within the same VAT system - between systems it's a pain in the butt.



Granted, and it remains to be seen how in practical terms this will work. But my point is that if frictionless trade can be maintained, in 12 months time nobody will bat an eyelid about this stuff. 
The heart and soul of identity politics it is not.



RichInSpirit said:


> Sinn Féin could provide the necessary votes to get this over the line. Just a once off in the national interest.



Same could be said of DUP. 
The general political census is that Brexit, in any form, is not good for Ireland, so useless hoping SF would vote for this deal. 
The DUP believe Brexit is good for UK. Ok, they haven't got the terms they wanted, but for the good of their country, shouldn't they take one for the team?


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## Early Riser (18 Oct 2019)

It looks like Boris's deal may not even get to a vote tomorrow and instead he will be forced to ask for an extension.

Commentators are now saying that the Letwin amendment is likely to pass.









						Rebel's move seeks to block no-deal Brexit as PM faces knife-edge vote
					

Boris Johnson is returning from Brussels with a deal - but he has a fight on his hands to get it passed by MPs.




					news.sky.com


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## elacsaplau (19 Oct 2019)

elacsaplau said:


> ….Should I just take the not so patriotic 1.7 on offer for England/All Black double in the rugby instead?!…………..Read: I wouldn't be very comfortable laying that sporting outcome at those odds for any sort of serious money!



Disappointing performance today...…...but not surprising...…..I thought that England and NZ would simply outclass their opponents and so it transpired.


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## joe sod (19 Oct 2019)

Its hard to know what to make of it, but I still think it will pass on monday, i dont understand the logic in voting for another delay. I still think it was a massive mistake by johnson to prorogue the parliament, and it ultimately may still sabotage his deal. I think it is end game now for the house of commons they need to get on with it now


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