# "No one wants an election!"



## Dan Murray (24 Nov 2017)

I had resigned myself to losing my bet on a 2017 election - but with the hardy annuals of the gardaí, the Department of Justice and politicians being politicians, it seems that there may be a final twist in the road.

General serious question: what qualities does one need to be a successful senior politician in Ireland? I've my own views but would be interested in hearing those of others!!


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## dub_nerd (24 Nov 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> what qualities does one need to be a successful senior politician in Ireland?




1) A desperate desire to be liked.

2) The ability to claim responsibility for anything good that happened with a straight face, even though you had nothing to do with it.

3) A fondness for turning up at funerals where nobody knows you.

4) The brass neck to resist calls to resign in the face of overwhelming evidence of incompetence.


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## Duke of Marmalade (24 Nov 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> I had resigned myself to losing my bet on a 2017 election - but with the gardaí, the Department of Justice and politicians being politicians, it seems that there may be a final twist in the road.


2017 GE down to 5/4 with PP but still 2018 is favourite.  All the same such an inspired run from way behind should be brought to the attention of the stewards - look for strange betting trends etc.

The really fascinating contest is what will be the next government.  Selected PP odds:

FG Minority  4/1 favourite
FG Independents 5/1
FG/FF 6/1
FF Minority 7/1
FF Independents 7/1
FF/SF 7/1
FG/Labour 14/1
FF/Labour  18/1

It is hard to see SF or Labour being in the picture so rule them out.
My feeling is that FG will improve their position.  The forthcoming Brexit showdown will play into Leo's hands - no way he can back down now.  Presumably with a breakdown in confidence it is hardly credible FF would renew a confidence and supply situation.  A FF/FG coalition seems further away than after the last GE.  

All the possibilities start to rule themselves out.  All the same there is money to be made here by the shrewd political punter.  Any clues folks?

Everybody is running around saying they don't want a GE, the people don't want a GE.  Jayz, I love GEs;  I suppose it is the appeal of blood sports


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## Ceist Beag (24 Nov 2017)

dub_nerd said:


> 1) A desperate desire to be liked.
> 
> 2) The ability to claim responsibility for anything good that happened with a straight face, even though you had nothing to do with it.
> 
> ...



5) The ability to jump on a high horse at every opportunity if it is at the expense of a political opponent.

6) The ability to avoid the facts and throw in strawman arguments when trying to advance your opinion.

FF have a lot to answer for if they really believe this is a reason worth bringing the government down over and I for one, while I would rather there not be a general election, will make sure my opinion of their behaviour is registered in my vote.


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## Dan Murray (24 Nov 2017)

Great start to the list Dub Nerd agus Ceist Beag!!


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## cremeegg (24 Nov 2017)

Two anecdotes on these.



dub_nerd said:


> 2) The ability to claim responsibility for anything good that happened with a straight face, even though you had nothing to do with it.



I was in hotel lobby once with a couple who had been involved in a successful grant application for a local Drama group. In walks a local politician. "oh isn't it wonderful we got the grant, I worked so hard on it, its great to see all my efforts pay off". The wife (chairperson of the Drama group and chief organised of the grant application) turns to the husband and says, quite sincerely, "who was that?".



dub_nerd said:


> 3) A fondness for turning up at funerals where nobody knows you.



A friend's grandfather died. He had lived in the area all his life and had been principal of the national school for many years. Huge funeral. Local TD arrives, meets and greets all and sundry. After a while he sees my friend, they had been in school together. "oh how are you, its great to see someone I actually know at one of these bloody funerals, this is the third one I have been at today." Grieving grandchild is dumbstruck.


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## odyssey06 (24 Nov 2017)

I can't understand why FF are forcing this rather than just abstaining... I think Fitzgerald should go, cos she's a useless waste of space, a merely placewoman who cares about position rather than her responsibilities. 
But I would have thought FF would wait for a bigger FG own goal before pulling the plug.


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## Duke of Marmalade (24 Nov 2017)

Just saw Leo being interviewed on RTE news.  He stated so many times that he didn't want an election that he left me in no doubt that he most certainly does want an election.  Where I did believe him was when he said that if there must be an election it must be before Xmas, so that 5/4 a 2017 GE looks a very good bet.


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## Delboy (24 Nov 2017)

Putting up posters in the rain, canvassing in the cold dark evenings, having to put in a hard slog on the campaign trail so close to xmas, annoyed voters who believe there was no need for an election over an issue like this leading to small turnout thereby favouring protest parties...FF/FG will be mad to call an election this side of April


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## Dan Murray (25 Nov 2017)

There can be little doubt that the problem here is with FF!

If we take it that the majority of voters would prefer not to have an election, what do they want?
- FF* to continue the confidence and supply arrangement when they say that they do not have confidence in the Tánaiste, or
- FF** to resign

*   Fianna Fáil
** Frances Fitzgerald

I would suggest that this would be a smarter question to ask in vox pops rather than "should there be an election"?


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## Duke of Marmalade (25 Nov 2017)

FFS

FF/SF now favourite to form next Government.  It is really scary to think that the IRA Army council are on the verge of power down here.


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## elacsaplau (25 Nov 2017)

Dan,

My preference is for Fitzie to go - based on her original gross incompetence (at best) and her pathetic attempts to cover up. My guess, however, is that neither "party" will back down and that we are headed for a bloody election. 

In my opinion, what we are witnessing is the product of decades of political and public service dysfunction.


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## Delboy (25 Nov 2017)

She should go on her watered down Legal reform Bill of last year alone. An absolute debacle with the Law Library/Kings Inns getting to amend the proposed legislation before it went to cabinet.
The Govt are only playthings for the Legal profession who are the real rulers of this country


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## Dan Murray (26 Nov 2017)

With reference to my original post, there has been a worrying easing in the odds of an election in 2017 (now 13/8). [I am assured that PPOW will accept up to €20 per customer at those odds?!] What can be the reason for such market movements?

Is MeHall going to march the troops back down DeHill again, proclaiming "once more not unto the breach, dear friends, once more", or
is Francie going to make an "I've done nothing wrong - however, I have always put the country first, etc." speech?

Personally, I hope it's the latter but I'm almost beyond caring - it's all getting too "four legs good, two legs bad" for me!!


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## Betsy Og (26 Nov 2017)

At the risk of being lynched here, I'm not entirely clear what all the fuss is about - peak work season- haven't been consuming news in any great depth.

I've seen on Twitter what appears to be the email in question - legal team for the guards to ask whether the allegations had something to do with Maurice McCabe's motivation. So was it fully known at that stage that the allegations were entirely spurious? (it does acknowledge the DPP had decided not to take it on). Even if it was known, could it still have been relevant to MM's motivation - i.e. they tried to set me up so now I will blacken them.

I don't doubt MM's bona fides at all, and the whole Tusla thing is the most outrageous GUBU I can ever remember, but I dont immediately see how Francie should have reacted (she wasnt asked to). In legal environments it seems to me that legal teams will often 'try it on' to get a reaction, or rattle the witness etc. It's not pleasant but then the whole thing is not pleasant. The jist I was picking up from the hysteria was that she signed off on a smear campaign, now it seems the 'already done its work' smear campaign was being raised as possible motivation for MM (since I gather he had become aware of it of some time back - and that his whistleblowing had been over a number of years so it was a plausible line of attack that his continued whistleblowing was motivated by revenge). In general I'm not sure you peer over the surgeons shoulder and tell her which tendon to sever..... 

So is it a resigning issue??, I don't think so, I think FG are right to call the bluff. Charleton will be going through all this shortly, if he is damning then that should be that for her. FF have gotten themselves on a bit of a hook here, I will certainly be giving them both barrels if they appear on my doorstep before Christmas, I doubt SF will call, I've no old washing machine abandoned out the front .....


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## Leper (27 Nov 2017)

Ask the homeless. Ask the people trying to get on the first rung of the property ladder. Ask the unemployed. Ask those on hospital waiting lists. Ask the elderly. Ask those paying huge rents. Ask those who can't afford private medical insurance.

Yes! We want an Election and the sooner the better.


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## Duke of Marmalade (27 Nov 2017)

_Betsy_ I couldn’t agree more.  I even believe Francie had forgotten that email.  It is preposterous to think of her as part of a conspiracy to smear MM.  Our adversarial system is based on lawyers trying every trick in the book.  I hope MM was getting good legal support provided for him.

As for the other MM what a blunder he has made.  He is clearly trying to wriggle off the hook but neither  SF nor Leo will let him.  I see PP no longer taking bets.


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## Dan Murray (27 Nov 2017)

Hi Betsy,

I would take a different view.

I think Katie Hannon's blog is a reasonable summary - I find her commentary generally to be measured and factual.
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1126/922943-email-tanaiste/

I agree with Katie's concluding assertion that "there is no doubt that this was a cock-up of catastrophic proportions."

We may not get high standards in high places but at least we should seek reasonable standards. Accordingly, Francie should resign. There are also very serious questions about many senior officials in the Department of Justice. Will there be any meaningful sanction imposed on these people?

In my opinion, asserting that the behaviour of the minister (and her senior officials) as being within the grounds of reasonableness only serves to perpetuate what elacsaplau rightly described as "decades of political and public service dysfunction." In the immortal words of de Maistre.....t_oute nation a le gouvernement qu'elle mérite.
_
All that said, the latest vibes seem to be that MeHall is going to march his men back down DeHill......
And when they were up, they were up
And when they were down, they were down
And when they were only half way up....

Once more not unto the breach, dear friends, once more!


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## Purple (27 Nov 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> I think Katie Hannon's blog is a reasonable summary - I find her commentary generally to be measured and factual.
> https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1126/922943-email-tanaiste/


It's an excellent summary of the whole issue.


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## odyssey06 (27 Nov 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I even believe Francie had forgotten that email.  It is preposterous to think of her as part of a conspiracy to smear MM.



I don't think she was an active part of a conspiracy to smear MM. I believe there was a campaign to smear MM by senior members of AGS, and as Minister for Justice she should have been an active protector of MM against that evil campaign. Maybe she shouldn't have received that email, but once she was aware of it, she had to act, legal advice be damned.
It's not an email a Minister for Justice should forget.

At least half a dozen senior people in the Department of Justice knew that An Taoiseach was imparting incorrect information to the Dail. They should no longer be senior members of any Department, let alone justice.


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## Dan Murray (27 Nov 2017)

Hear, hear Odyssey06..........................or should that be read, read?!


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## Duke of Marmalade (27 Nov 2017)

Lawyers fight dirty, that’s the way our system works.  At the Bloody Sunday Tribunal lawyers for the BA tried to portray the victims as IRA men.  Should the British Government have intervened to stop that line of legal argument? Nobody argued that they should and if they had the Tribunal would have been tainted as having been under political influence.

As it happened the lawyers in the MM case didn’t bother going through with that legal strategy.  This was not a jury trial, FF was correct in assuming that the learned judge would see through any ruse and truth would out.  Interfering politically could have tainted the whole process.

She dun nuffin’ wrong.  The jury is out on NOS.  Was she part of a smear conspiracy against MM or was she duped by said conspiracy?  I think the latter.


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## odyssey06 (27 Nov 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Lawyers fight dirty, that’s the way our system works.  At the Bloody Sunday Tribunal lawyers for the BA tried to portray the victims as IRA men.  Should the British Government have intervened to stop that line of legal argument? Nobody argued that they should and if they had the Tribunal would have been tainted as having been under political influence.



Why was the Minister even alerted then???
These were the most senior civil servants in the Attorney General's office, and the Department of Justice, alerting their ministers that something major was going on.

Either the ministers should have immediately reprimanded the civil servants for divulging privileged information to them; or they should have acted on that information to prevent the perpetuation of a smear campaign by members of a body to which she is ultimately responsible for, given that the commission itself was set up to investigate the smear campaign!!!

From the RTE article summarising this:

No further legal opinion was sought.
No other options of actions open to the minister were explored.
The minister met then commissioner Noirín O’Sullivan the day after she received it and did not mention it to her.
Instead the email was simply filed away and forgotten about while the garda commissioner was allowed a free hand in a legal attack on Sgt McCabe that almost destroyed him.
This is not the actions of any individual I want to see hold cabinet office.


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## odyssey06 (27 Nov 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> She dun nuffin’ wrong.



The reason why she has to go is that "*She dun nuffin*". And she seems to think this is an accurate job description of the Minister for Justice. The vast majority of her time in office you could have replaced her with a signature signing robot and nobody would notice the difference.


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## Purple (27 Nov 2017)

odyssey06 said:


> At least half a dozen senior people in the Department of Justice knew that An Taoiseach was imparting incorrect information to the Dail. They should no longer be senior members of any Department, let alone justice.


I think that's a crucial point here as well but Civil Servants cannot be sanctioned and never resign.


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## Ceist Beag (27 Nov 2017)

I think it's fair to say at this stage that it is not about "the email" any more. The RTE article certainly puts forward quite a damning view of the Dept of Justice and the minister and it's hard to argue with the points made by odyssey above. It's looking like Leo and Micheal will come to some compromise to allow both to move on from the standoff but really, election or no election, as Purple said, the people really responsible for this mess will avoid any sanctions here.


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## Dan Murray (27 Nov 2017)

I disagree with the habitual refrain coming from the FG echelons that the Tánaiste has done NOTHING WRONG. However, I can kinda understand why they are saying this - the political die had been cast....._iacta alea est_......so it was time to batten down the hatches, to circle the wagons or (as I prefer to put it) to proclaim as loudly as is necessary "FOUR LEGS GOOD". In simple terms, my expectation of both "the four legs good" and "the two legs bad" brigades is......."well they would say that, wouldn't they"

Where I genuinely struggle is understanding how someone outside the political fold can believe that Francie did NOTHING WRONG and is also prepared to cry "FOUR LEGS GOOD". Remember "nothing wrong" differs significantly from a "resigning matter" (which in Ireland means a hell of a lot wrong and you've been caught). Anyway, the mind-set of the FOUR LEGS GOODers amongst us really is a complete riddle to me.

I do agree with all those who have rightly pointed out the outrageous behaviour of the departmental officials - their actions and inactions are also completely unacceptable. We need at least some level of accountability from our politicians and public servants.


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## Purple (28 Nov 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> We need at least some level of accountability from our politicians and public servants.


Our politicians are accountable to the people at every election. Our Public Servants, well...


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## Delboy (28 Nov 2017)

Rumours breaking that Frances has gone. Leo has blinked


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## Dan Murray (28 Nov 2017)

Purple said:


> Our politicians are accountable to the people at every election. Our Public Servants, well...



Of course, political accountability can rightly arrive between elections as Francie has been finding out!



Delboy said:


> Rumours breaking that Frances has gone. Leo has blinked



Good to see her do the right thing - not, of course, the honourable thing - she was dragged kicking and screaming until eventually the story couldn't be changed any more - you can fool all of the people some of the time....TWO LEGS BAD, TWO LEGS BAD

Bad week for Leo the straight-talking Lion and Charlie M(in)ister Indignant² Flanagan....

Overall, good that there is no election - I don't think anyone in his right mind wanted that.


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## Purple (28 Nov 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> Good to see her do the right thing - not, of course, the honourable thing


She did the honourable thing long after it was the honourable thing to do.


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Nov 2017)

This leaves Leo as extremely weak facing the Brexit showdown.  He has stood back from the MM brink but if he stands back from the Brexit brink, which he has helped create, he will surely be toast with the Irish electorate who to a man and a woman seem to be up for giving Albion a right bloody nose.  Not sure Ireland's best interests are being served here.  Animal Farm how are you


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## Dan Murray (28 Nov 2017)

Are you still sticking to your line that Francie done nothing wrong??


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## Delboy (28 Nov 2017)

We'll have an election in April anyways, this Govt is on its last legs.Lord Ross better push through Stepaside Garda station asap


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## Dan Murray (28 Nov 2017)

Hey Delboy,

Is that its last four legs or just the two?!


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## Betsy Og (28 Nov 2017)

As ever its not the crime its the cover up. The "crime" I still think was not a crime. Some people seem to think the enquiry was a sort of a beatification process for MM - there was always going to be a few 'hard hits' - it does not amount to a smear campaign.

All the botched memory/briefing/correcting record etc does look bad. So I'm not really sorry she's gone, but it was all a bit needless. 

I don't see any Brexit related fallout, that would have been the issue if into a GE and limbo-land with no government. Our Brexit stance is on a much more solid footing, and I can't see any rationale in Ireland funking it. Veto all the way until we get our guarantees. DUP wants to exit on the same terms as Britain (though NI voted to stay in) - leave it out....


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## odyssey06 (28 Nov 2017)

Betsy Og said:


> Some people seem to think the enquiry was a sort of a beatification process for MM



Why on earth were AGS, through their Commissioner, taking an adversarial position against MM?
The enquiry was not a tribunal of guilt v innocence, it was to establish what occurred.
They placed the protection of the reputation of AGS above the process to establish the truth. This is not some random private company engaged in the pursuit of profit, this is an organisation whose job should be to establish the truth in the pursuit of justice.

By taking an adversarial position against MM, to me, the Commissioner chose sides in the enquiry and joined the ranks engaged in smearing MM. They manifested again all the same behaviour that had led to the enquiry being set up.

A cover-up is not conclusive evidence of a crime, but it's a yellow alert that something not above board is going on.


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## Dan Murray (28 Nov 2017)

odyssey06,

I'm not sure if there is any point in debating this further - whatever doubts Betsy Og may have had yesterday - it's very, very, very hard to see how any doubts can remain after last night's revelations. My zealous Fine Girl pal even concedes this now (and he is LIVID with The Lion King.) This is getting old.

For the avoidance of doubt, it was the crime and the cover up of the crime - indeed, the cover-up was necessitated by the crime!

Mick Wallace's made a speech during the Taoiseach's question time today. I empathised fully with his sense of desperation with the Irish political system _en masse. _


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Nov 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> Mick Wallace's made a speech during the Taoiseach's question time today. I empathised fully with his sense of desperation with the Irish political system _en masse. _



I am not going to fall for that gambit, pitching Mick Wallace as a paragon


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## Dan Murray (28 Nov 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I am not going to fall for that gambit, pitching Mick Wallace as a paragon



And rightly so!

You should focus your attention on explaining how you got this one so badly wrong!

When the next election does come around, would you think of running? I think you could be very successful!!!!


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## Betsy Og (28 Nov 2017)

The adversarial position is how the whole system works. It's like asking a dog not to bark. I don't suppose they thought they were retained to tickle MM. The presiding judge, or whoever was adjudicating, could always say that wasn't cricket. IMO it's a legitimate question - its about his motivation in the wake of the smear campaign - it's not inferring he was a kiddie fiddler. It's like asking Gerry Conlon (before his death..) if being wrongly imprisoned for 15 years turned him against the British state - you're not inferring he planted a bomb in a pub in Guildford...

Why Francie couldn't come out with a version of that I dont know - due to the beatification process I guess. I've no time for incompetence, misleading or what not thereafter, so there's the crime in my view.

Mick Wallace is just you're average pub stool cynic, the vox pop "they're all a shower, never done nuttin for me" type. I'm all for calling out incompetence, but this country just loves hurling from the ditch, I wouldn't fancy doing the job so I don't presume its easy.


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## Dan Murray (28 Nov 2017)

Ah, Betsy Og,

You've got me shouting TWO LEGS BAD again.

Let's just say, I think your analysis is deeply flawed.


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Nov 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> Are you still sticking to your line that Francie done nothing wrong??


Regrettably I am no longer in a position to make that statement.  She has gone and dun sumfin' wrong.  She resigned


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Nov 2017)

Betsy Og said:


> I don't see any Brexit related fallout, that would have been the issue if into a GE and limbo-land with no government. Our Brexit stance is on a much more solid footing, and I can't see any rationale in Ireland funking it. Veto all the way until we get our guarantees. DUP wants to exit on the same terms as Britain (though NI voted to stay in) - leave it out....


As you have undoubtedly noted I am with you on your MM analysis.  

Brexit I am not so sure (possibly I should be making this point in another thread.)  The whole country is now up to high doh that now at last we can get our revenge for those 800 years.  (Sean O'Rourke mentioned that even the German papers are running with this line.)  Leo's macho stance initially scratched by rebel surface and I was all for it.  But upon mature refection the UK are not going to give us what the country is baying for.  In that circumstance Ireland is going to need really strong leadership, someone who can compromise, a Michael Collins.  Alas, Leo has become a lame duck.  If he comes back with less than a total humiliation of the Brits his political future will be even more bleak than it was for the ill fated MC.


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## Dan Murray (28 Nov 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Regrettably I am no longer in a position to make that statement.  She has gone and dun sumfin' wrong.  She resigned



Well it takes all sorts or as they say there's nowt so strange as folk....

You seem to wish to continue the farce (....now there's a big surprise) that she did nothing wrong when pretty much everyone knows the level of wrong-doing needed to resign in Irish politics is a high, high hurdle. Ultimately, it boils down to each individual's view of acceptable standards - it seems ours are unaligned.

I do know that you will not admit you called this one wrong - but it would remiss of me not to remind you of this, yet again. By nature, I'm an optimist and live in hope. God is good. Allah too. Remember TWO LEGS BAD, TWO LEGS MAXIMA BAD....


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Nov 2017)

Betsy Og said:


> As ever its not the crime its the cover up. The "crime" I still think was not a crime.


Agree with you there.  Compared to Enda Kenny's verbatim record of a meeting he never had, the memory slip and the follow up cover up are small beer.


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## Dan Murray (28 Nov 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Agree with you there.  Compared to Enda Kenny's verbatim record of a meeting he never had, the memory slip and the follow up cover up are small beer.



I think our standards in relation to what constitutes acceptable behaviour differ. There's nowt so strange as folk.... 

However, whilst I disapprove of your standards (or sub-standards if it be your will), I would defend your right to express them by writing a strongly worded e-mail.

DM


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Nov 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> I think our standards in relation to what constitutes acceptable behaviour differ. There's nowt so strange as folk....
> 
> However, whilst I disapprove of your standards (or sub-standards if it be your will), I would defend your right to express them by writing a strongly worded e-mail.
> 
> ...


DM there is a current push against the (ab)use of emotis


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## Betsy Og (29 Nov 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> The whole country is now up to high doh that now at last we can get our revenge for those 800 years.  (Sean O'Rourke mentioned that even the German papers are running with this line.)  Leo's macho stance initially scratched by rebel surface and I was all for it.  But upon mature refection the UK are not going to give us what the country is baying for.  In that circumstance Ireland is going to need really strong leadership, someone who can compromise, a Michael Collins.  Alas, Leo has become a lame duck.  If he comes back with less than a total humiliation of the Brits his political future will be even more bleak than it was for the ill fated MC.



I've no interest in revenge for 800 years, I don't even want to give Britain a bloody nose, I just don't want them to mess up this island any further because they are uninterested and unmotivated to take the issue seriously. Leo, I think, has gotten their attention,and the EU's attention - initial result. We still need to wield the veto, I don't know why people are squeamish about that - I'd consider it pretty much treasonous if he did not fight tooth and nail for the best interests of this country.

I don't buy (literally or otherwise) the Sun's analysis that Ireland is being mischievous - I feel sorry for the British people, sold an absolute pup on Brexit, outvoted by those largely unaffected (the wrinklies), abandoned to the vagaries of the hardliners of the Tory party who want hard brexit - for largely jingoistic reasons it seems. I think the final deal has to go a vote in the Commons/Lords, that will be interesting. I'd put the house on it that the referendum result would be reversed if the deal were to go to a public vote -  given the shambles that it has been shown to be. I despair at the DUP stance. If I was Theresa May I would leave it to the Breixteers, why she is agreeing to take all the blame while they sharpen their knives for her is beyond me - it's gotten so bad I'm feeling sympathy for her (not my default position I can assure you...).

I think if Leo does ok on the Brexit stuff then the Francie stuff will be forgotten, ok it hasn't been his best week and he has lost a bit of face but I'm sure he can get over that, he is a politician after all, thin skins should not apply.


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## Dan Murray (29 Nov 2017)

With respect Young Betsy, you seem to be unfamiliar with Murray's law which provides that the longer the Duke is involved in any thread (i.e. irrespective of its theme), the probability of his mentioning at least one of the following (the IRA, Sinners, UK or Britain) approaches 1.


DM


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## Betsy Og (29 Nov 2017)

I've told him before that I consider him the Oracle (the Matrix) on such matters, so no complaints here.


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## odyssey06 (29 Nov 2017)

Betsy Og said:


> I don't buy (literally or otherwise) the Sun's analysis that Ireland is being mischievous - I feel sorry for the British people, sold an absolute pup on Brexit, outvoted by those largely unaffected (the wrinklies), abandoned to the vagaries of the hardliners of the Tory party who want hard brexit - for largely jingoistic reasons it seems.



I think the Brits will be fine. I think Irish farmers, French winemakers and Spanish vegetable growers should be more worried.

And I have to take issue with this objection to the votes of older people. These were the people who voted in 1975 to take Britian into the EEC. Do they not have the right now to change their minds?  
It seems a bizarre and dangerous argument to make. By that logic, Ireland should ban the votes of over 65s in constitutional referenda.


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## Purple (29 Nov 2017)

odyssey06 said:


> And I have to take issue with this objection to the votes of older people. These were the people who voted in 1975  By that logic, Ireland should ban the votes of over 65s in constitutional referenda.


Well they are the generation who was in charge of the country during the boom and bust. They are the generation who have sold their children and grandchildren into penury in order to maintain pensions which they haven't earned. They are the generation who were the beneficiaries of the greatest wealth transfer in the history of the State from young to old in the form of the housing bubble. They are, by far, the worst generation this country has ever produced; the most selfish, the most incompetent and the most destructive. The only thing they excel in is self-aggrandising delusion. Why on earth should they get to screw things up again?


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## odyssey06 (29 Nov 2017)

Purple said:


> Well they are the generation who was in charge of the country during the boom and bust. They are the generation who have sold their children and grandchildren into penury in order to maintain pensions which they haven't earned. They are the generation who were the beneficiaries of the greatest wealth transfer in the history of the State from young to old in the form of the housing bubble. They are, by far, the worst generation this country has ever produced; the most selfish, the most incompetent and the most destructive. The only thing they excel in is self-aggrandising delusion. Why on earth should they get to screw things up again?



Why should anyone? I didn't realise that democracy necessitated disenfranchising entire generations...


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## Dan Murray (29 Nov 2017)

Crikey Purple,

Do I need to get working on Murray's second law?


DM


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## Betsy Og (29 Nov 2017)

The elders didn't have any 'skin in the game', so it was unfortunate that they made a decision that will negatively impact those that do have skin in the game. Thats all.


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## Duke of Marmalade (29 Nov 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> With respect Young Betsy, you seem to be unfamiliar with Murray's law which provides that the longer the Duke is involved in any thread (i.e. irrespective of its theme), the probability of his mentioning at least one of the following (the IRA, *Sinners*, UK or Britain) approaches 1.


Dan  I am never one to moralise to our fallen brethren or was that a gambit?
On Brexit the mood music is changing in a direction that I hadn't expected.  Theresa has significantly upped the offer on the divorce bill and there are positive vibes from Brussels and Nigel has gone ballistic. Seems like Theresa has bigger cojones that some were giving her credit for.

According to the IT Irish/British/EU officials are working feverishly on a form of wording that will let Leo off the hook.  I can't see now how he could feasibly play the veto card.  There is a growing Brexiteer backlash against Ireland's position.  We have to be very careful here.  Like  it or not the Brexiteers are in the UK ascendancy; having Alistair Campbell as our friend is not going to do us much good.


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## Seagull (29 Nov 2017)

Betsy Og said:


> The elders didn't have any 'skin in the game', so it was unfortunate that they made a decision that will negatively impact those that do have skin in the game. Thats all.


If you want to blame anyone in this situation, blame the young people who couldn't be bothered to go out and vote in the referendum. The majority of under 30 said they were opposed to leaving, but they didn't bother registering. If you look at a graph by age of those in favour of leaving, and the percentage that bothered to vote, it's an almost exact match.


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## Dan Murray (29 Nov 2017)

Penultimate post



Duke of Marmalade said:


> DM there is a current push against the (ab)use of emotis



Ultimate post



Duke of Marmalade said:


> Dan  I am never one to moralise to our fallen brethren or was that a gambit?



Consistent as ever....


DM


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## Purple (29 Nov 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> Crikey Purple,
> 
> Do I need to get working on Murray's second law?
> 
> ...


I feel better now...


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## Dan Murray (29 Nov 2017)

Well fair's fair.

That said, I would need more than 4 words - my sense is that you have quite a few marshmallows going on!!


DM


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## cremeegg (29 Nov 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> On Brexit the mood music is changing in a direction that I hadn't expected.  Theresa has significantly upped the offer on the divorce bill and there are positive vibes from Brussels and Nigel has gone ballistic. Seems like Theresa has bigger cojones that some were giving her credit for.



This change has barely begun, much too soon to say that it has established a new direction. Wishful thinking on your part perhaps.



Duke of Marmalade said:


> According to the IT Irish/British/EU officials are working feverishly on a form of wording that will let Leo off the hook.  I can't see now how he could feasibly play the veto card.  There is a growing Brexiteer backlash against Ireland's position.  We have to be very careful here.  Like  it or not the Brexiteers are in the UK ascendancy; having Alistair Campbell as our friend is not going to do us much good.



Of course he could play the veto card. Although of course the threat is always better than the actuality.

While having trade between Europe and the UK as free as possible is of vital interest to us, the trade talks have not even begun yet.

The Brexiteers ascendancy will not last very long.


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## Duke of Marmalade (29 Nov 2017)

Well _cremeegg _I am not going to try and match you in the political forecasting department - still smarting from The Donald and I didn't call this latest spat (subject of the OP) either.  All the same I think we will finish up with something much less than public expectation though it will be dressed up to suit all sides.  There is no way we will get away with crashing the car even if we have a hand on the steering wheel.


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## Purple (29 Nov 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> There is no way we will get away with crashing the car even if we have a hand on the steering wheel.


We are trying to stop the nutter little englanders crashing the car. We have a hand on the key, not the steering wheel.


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## cremeegg (30 Nov 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> There is no way we will get away with crashing the car even if we have a hand on the steering wheel.



Well put. 

We don't even want to crash the car. A no-deal hard Brexit would affect Ireland very badly, worse even that the Brits themselves probably. But that will be decided in the next phase. Now is our time of maximum leverage, when the next phase comes all the rest of the EU 27 will have their vital interests at stake as well.


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