# Inda sacking Richard Bruton



## csirl (15 Jun 2010)

Any views on this? Is Inda a gonner?

I got the sense that he is trying too hard to prove that he is a strong leader - thinks that sacking someone before they get an opportunity to oppose him makes him look strong. Personally I think he's misread the situation and it's backfired on him. If Inda remains, FG will lose the next election & Gilmore will be Taoiseach. Though, very bad news for FF if FG get their act together and replace him.


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## Purple (15 Jun 2010)

Inda is a nice man but he is useless on economic matters and for the next few years all that will matter are economic matters.


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## DB74 (15 Jun 2010)

Very Stalinist (or is it Stalinesque) of Enda!

Pathetic stuff really

Brian Cowen should call a snap election while Fine Gael are in such disarray.


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## z107 (15 Jun 2010)

Today we are being treated to a no-confidence vote for brian cowen. This should be headline news. Instead, FG/enda kenny have taken the limelight.

Clearly neither side should be in power.

FF/FG = Laurel & Hardy.


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## Sunny (15 Jun 2010)

Kenny didn't have a choice. The problem for FG is that both men have strong support and therefore whatever the result, the will end up with a deeply divided party. The ironic thing is that I don't think Richard Bruton would be a better leader than Enda Kenny. 

Real winner is Labour who must be laughing. They say nothing and still become the most popular party in the Country. Irish voters are mugs.


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## Purple (15 Jun 2010)

Yes but the alternative is Happy Gilmore and Moan Burton. Sound bites and populist economic drivel. It would be like Bertie’s Fianna Fail with the Unions pulling the strings instead of the developers (and unions).  They are anti-business and innovation and think that they can tax their way out of recession.


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## shnaek (15 Jun 2010)

Sunny said:


> Real winner is Labour who must be laughing. They say nothing and still become the most popular party in the Country. Irish voters are mugs.


Hear hear. It'd be funny if I didn't live here.


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## csirl (15 Jun 2010)

I think the George Lee episode was the beginning of the end for the working relationship between Enda and Bruton.

Bruton has a masters in economics from Oxford and did his thesis on Irish public debt. Bringing in populist TV pundit George Lee into the party as their economic expert when they already had a more qualified expert on staff was a big mistake and a big insult to Bruton.


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## TarfHead (15 Jun 2010)

Sunny said:


> Kenny didn't have a choice. The problem for FG is that both men have strong support and therefore whatever the result, the will end up with a deeply divided party.


 
+1

Kenny only had the leadership with Bruton's consent. Now that Bruton is getting anxious, following last week's opinion poll, he's withdrawing support. However, what he may have overlooked is that Kenny has built up his own power base in the PP since 2002 and while Bruton may garner enough PP votes to win a leadership election, there will be a significant rump plotting their revenge, rather than putting their efforts into offering a viable alternative for Government.

Then again, as some tweeted earlier today "._. backing Varadkar to tear all their guts out and stand beating his chest atop the bone heap_"  "


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## Firefly (15 Jun 2010)

Purple said:


> Yes but the alternative is Happy Gilmore and Moan Burton. Sound bites and populist economic drivel. It would be like Bertie’s Fianna Fail with the Unions pulling the strings instead of the developers (and unions). They are anti-business and innovation and think that they can tax their way out of recession.


 
If Labour are the largest party in the next government, would the last person to leave the country please turn out the lights?


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## TarfHead (15 Jun 2010)

Firefly said:


> If Labour are the largest party in the next government, would the last person to leave the country please turn out the lights?


 
They won't be.

They can't be - they haven't the consitiuency organisations to gain that number of seats.

Where can they win more than one seat in a constituency ? If you can name one, can you name twenty, cos that's the scale of gain they have to achieve.


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## Purple (15 Jun 2010)

Good point TarfHead.


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## csirl (15 Jun 2010)

At a time when this country needs leadership, none of the 3 biggest parties seem to be able to step up to the plate.

FF - Cowen, enough said.
FG - Kenny - its looking like he'll survive and lead FG into oblivion. 
Lab - dont run enough candidates to win an election.

So who's left? Is there anyone who wants to win the next election?


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## DerKaiser (15 Jun 2010)

TarfHead said:


> They won't be.
> 
> They can't be - they haven't the consitiuency organisations to gain that number of seats.
> 
> Where can they win more than one seat in a constituency ? If you can name one, can you name twenty, cos that's the scale of gain they have to achieve.


 
Good common sense there.  I'm not disappointed Bruton is making his heave, but it annoys me that it's off the back of an opinion poll.

It's pure laziness to translate opinion poll %'s into seats.  Look at the lib dems!

The best you can hope for is to guage some kind of swing since the last election and then you need to go through constituency by constituency to figure what it all means in terms of seats.

There's probably an absolute upper bound of 40 labour seats no matter how well they're polling.

I'm glad Tarfhead has pointed out some common sense


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## Mpsox (15 Jun 2010)

Kenny is a dead-man walking even if he survives today

Labour and FF won't want to see him gone, after all, if the polls are to be believed, a lot of people out there won't vote FG because they can't see EK as Taoiseach. If anything, he's one of FF biggest vote getters.  FG would probably get an immediate bounce with Bruton in charge. 

Whether or not Bruton is up to it, time will tell.


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## The_Banker (15 Jun 2010)

Enda put it up to the Front Bench this morning. Speaking and then telling them that there will be a reshuffle next week.
Bruton definately has the majority of the front bench support but Enda seems to have a lot of the parlimentary party support.
Either way, FG looks evenly divided and the country screwed.

I cant see FF being wiped out in the next general election the way all the commentators are saying. They will be hurt badly in all the urban areas yes, but Irish people still vote using the cult of personality and there would be a lot of strong personalities in FF. Can anyone see O'Dea being ousted in Limerick, Martin in Cork or Blaney in Donegal?
Likewase (as Tarfhead alluded to) can you see Michael O'Dea taking on a running mate in Galway or Labour running two candidates in Kerry North?

The next election will certainly be interesting but it won't be the wipeout most are expecting.


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## The_Banker (15 Jun 2010)

DerKaiser said:


> Good common sense there. I'm not disappointed Bruton is making his heave, but it annoys me that it's off the back of an opinion poll.
> 
> It's pure laziness to translate opinion poll %'s into seats. *Look at the lib dems!*
> 
> ...


 
I dont think you are comparing like for like here.. In the UK its first past the post but Proportional Representation in Ireland. 
With PR (as a rule of thumb) the percentage normally does reflect the amount of seats won.


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## The_Banker (15 Jun 2010)

Nine frontbenchers have now come out and said they do not support Enda. The are... Simon Coveney, Denis Naughten, Olwyn Enright, Olivia Mitchell, Fergus O'Dowd, Michael Creed, Billy Timmins, Leo Varadkar and Brian Hayes.

The game is up.


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## Purple (15 Jun 2010)

the_banker said:


> the game is up.



+1


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## dockingtrade (15 Jun 2010)

theres alot of "floating voters" out there who are looking for an alternative to FF and just will not vote for Enda and now especially not for Enda. The least popular govt in history and Enda's just not taking avantage . Its a no brainer for FG, Bruton as leader their popularity will surge. Whatever about what the grass root FGers think and whatever about the hard work Enda had done in the last 8 years and how he's a good manager, FG members arent going to win the next election its the ordinary Joe on the street who need to be convinced.
FG are not in dissary because of this, Bruton will win and FG will shoot up.


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## TarfHead (15 Jun 2010)

The_Banker said:


> I dont think you are comparing like for like here.. In the UK its first past the post but Proportional Representation in Ireland.
> With PR (as a rule of thumb) the percentage normally does reflect the amount of seats won.


 
Yeah, but .. many Labour TDs rely on transfers to get the 2nd last or last seat in a constituency. FF have it in their DNA to manage transfers to get in running mates on the coat tails of poll toppers, e.g. Cyprian Brady.

Labour don't have this level of cunning in each and every constituency. Also, because of where they have come from, many constituency organisations are based around one person, the TD. Now they have to mobilise to get canvassers out to knock on doors and give up their time for some councillor who may not be ready to run.

I'm not saying it's impossible, just that it's highly unlikely.


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## Firefly (15 Jun 2010)

TarfHead said:


> They won't be.
> 
> They can't be - they haven't the consitiuency organisations to gain that number of seats.
> 
> Where can they win more than one seat in a constituency ? If you can name one, can you name twenty, cos that's the scale of gain they have to achieve.


 
Didn't realise that. However, if they get similiarly positive poll results in the coming months perhaps more people will run / divert to Labour?


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## Latrade (15 Jun 2010)

As tarf says, it's impossible as it is for Labour to win. They'd have to run multiple candidates in all areas (even though they really only have support in Dublin). Then you're talking about upsetting the existing TDs by them having to run a couple of candidates along with them. 

I'd agree to some extent Enda had little choice, but he never entertained any other possibility. RB did it right, his supporters remained quiet and it would be discussed at the executive meeting. All behind closed doors. EK could have waited until then to see what the support was or wasn't and then looked at a deal with RB. He's probably ended up making it worse by upsetting some who would have been neutral in this debate. In effect, he's just signed his own resignation as there is no way back from this.

As to FF, if Lenihan wasn't ill (and unfortunately is unlikely to be a long term possibility) he'd be in by now or at least FF would be going through similar moves. FF's cronyism has come back to bite them as the cabinet of pals and friends of Cowen and Berite means there is no star in the making ready to step up. 

Yes Labour are probably laughing, but hopefully not too hard. One Poll based on phoning up a few people in Dublin shouldn't mean they get too comfortable (or for that matter that FG start self destructing). And we shouldn't be too harsh on the electorate just yet, saying yes to Gilmore to a pollster is different to voting yes.


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## Firefly (15 Jun 2010)

latrade said:


> and we shouldn't be too harsh on the electorate just yet, saying yes to gilmore to a pollster is different to voting yes.


 
+1


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## Calico (15 Jun 2010)

While I'm not sure about RB's tilt for the leadership, I would like to see either Fine Gael either rebranded or split into two. A bit like the good bank/bad bank idea, there are some good people in Fine Gael but there are an awful lot of muppets as well who'd be just as at home in Fianna Fail. There is no political party I could vote for as they currently are.


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## TarfHead (15 Jun 2010)

Latrade said:


> As to FF, if Lenihan wasn't ill (and unfortunately is unlikely to be a long term possibility) he'd be in by now or at least FF would be going through similar moves. FF's cronyism has come back to bite them as the cabinet of pals and friends of Cowen and Berite means there is no star in the making ready to step up.


 
No-one in FF will make a move against Cowen before the next election. Whose ambition is it to be Leader of the Opposition, especially after 12/15 years in charge ?
The next election has, for FF, to be written off (and letting Cowen take the bullet for it) so it's a matter of positioning yourself for the one after that



Latrade said:


> Yes Labour are probably laughing, but hopefully not too hard. One Poll based on phoning up a few people in Dublin shouldn't mean they get too comfortable (or for that matter that FG start self destructing). And we shouldn't be too harsh on the electorate just yet, saying yes to Gilmore to a pollster is different to voting yes.


 
Expect to see Gilmore's political journey to be raised in the next campaign - from Sinn Fein Workers Party to potential Taoiseach ?


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## csirl (15 Jun 2010)

+1 Latrade

Enda should have said nothing and waited for the executive meeting behind closed doors. After debating the issue with his colleagues at the executive, if it is clear that he doesnt have their support, he could have cut a deal with them to remain as part of the front bench, and ultimately get an important cabinet position, in exchange for supporting a new leader.

If Enda had called a press conference for this afternoon and announced that he's enjoyed his x years in charge, but its time for someone else to take on the leadership workload as he's had it for several years......and he'd be very happy to assist the new leader including taking a front bench position etc. etc............then FG could have turned this into a huge positive rather than a negative. 

Agree with comments over Lenihan. His illness rules him out for the forseeable future. 

While Labour may have good support in the polls, it doesnt always translate into seats. Local issues can dominate. There is one constituency in Dublin where Labour are in danger of losing their seat due to a local issue and one or two more where their local candidates just havent connected with the electorate and so are unlikely to be elected - if Labour cant get seats in every Dublin constituency, its going to be a dissappointing election for them.


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## The_Banker (15 Jun 2010)

csirl said:


> +1 Latrade
> 
> Enda should have said nothing and waited for the executive meeting behind closed doors. After debating the issue with his colleagues at the executive, if it is clear that he doesnt have their support, he could have cut a deal with them to remain as part of the front bench, and ultimately get an important cabinet position, in exchange for supporting a new leader.
> 
> ...


 
Similar situation in Cork where Kathleen Lynch (sitting Labour TD) seriously hacked off a large majority of her constituants by writing a letter of support for a convicted rapist. Lots of Labour voters vowed never to voted for her again.
So again, polls may not translate in votes.


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## Sunny (15 Jun 2010)

Enda Kenny didn't have the luxuary of doing things behind closed doors. Once Richard Bruton did not give him his support on Prime Time last Thursday, it was open season. This was never going to be bloodless leadership change. Enda Kenny may not have been popular with the electorate but he has a very powerful base within the FG party. Even now, it is by no means certain that he will lose a vote from the Parlimentary party. 

Even looking at the members of the front bench that have opposed him, they are the weaker ones in it. If Kenny can keep the likes O'Reilly, Deenihan, Flanagan, Hogan, Shatter and Ring on his side, his position is still pretty strong. 

The whole thing is political suicide. The timing of it makes no sense.


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## Latrade (15 Jun 2010)

TarfHead said:


> No-one in FF will make a move against Cowen before the next election. Whose ambition is it to be Leader of the Opposition, especially after 12/15 years in charge ?
> The next election has, for FF, to be written off (and letting Cowen take the bullet for it) so it's a matter of positioning yourself for the one after that.


 
That's part of what makes it so interesting and to some extent annoying. There isn't a replacement that I know of, or at least not one getting attention. Without using too many UK comparissons, but there's no Milliband (either of them).

But to that extent, I think like Labour in the UK, they expect to lose, whereas they've actually got 2 years to turn it around if they tried. Looking at the mess over at FG, now is actually a perfect time for FF to change leadership and capitalise. However, I think with the current state, it's less about letting Cowen take a hit and more that if they do change leadership or try to, they'd have little choice but to call an election, or the pressure would be extreme.

I don't personally by that argument of a new leader having no mandate. We have a presidential elections, general elections are not presidential elections. We've voted for TDs, the party with the largest number (or with a coalition) makes up the government. We don't vote for a leader, the party does.

So I don't actually get where FF is coming from. There are enough reports and evidence highlighting Cowen's and Bertie's roles, you don't have to wait for an election to let him take the hit, you can do that right now. New leader, new cabinet and who knows. I think the main problem is that with Lenihan eliminated and all other senior members being part of the old regime, there just isn't anyone who can take over.

As to FG, Enda's won this one, but as the cliche goes: it's a Pyrrhic victory. To trot out another UK comparisson, this may be like when Heseltine took on Thatcher (not comparing EK to Thatcher!). She won that one, largely because while a lot didn't support her, many of that faction didn't support Heseltine. But it was the begining of the end.


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## Latrade (15 Jun 2010)

Sunny said:


> Enda Kenny didn't have the luxuary of doing things behind closed doors. Once Richard Bruton did not give him his support on Prime Time last Thursday, it was open season. This was never going to be bloodless leadership change.


 
I'm not so sure, I don't think Bruton's stance carried that much media attention. And in fairness his answer wasn't slightly taken out of context. To my recollection he said he did support the leader, then when asked if he would consider leadership he was honest and said who wouldn't consider the leadership if it became available. Of course, the latter "I'd love to be leader" is what the media went with.

Once it got out that Bruton had spent the weekend on the phone (look out for the phone bill in his expenses claims), I think you're right, there would always be some blood. However, I still think Kenny could have handled it as stated and waited until the meeting to make any sudden move.


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## TarfHead (15 Jun 2010)

csirl said:


> There is one constituency in Dublin where Labour are in danger of losing their seat due to a local issue and one or two more where their local candidates just havent connected with the electorate and so are unlikely to be elected - if Labour cant get seats in every Dublin constituency, its going to be a dissappointing election for them.


 
My Labour TD, Tommy Broughan, was promising, in 2007, to bring the LUAS and a 3rd level institution to the constituency.

Wonder what he'll be promising next time  ?


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## Caveat (15 Jun 2010)

TarfHead said:


> My Labour TD, Tommy Broughan, was promising, in 2007, to bring the LUAS and a 3rd level institution to the constituency.
> 
> Wonder what he'll be promising next time  ?


 
No, you probably misheard him with his mad accent.

He probably said labour would "luas" seats in constitituencies and that the local institutions were at "turd" level.

(Sorry, had to be done )


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## DrMoriarty (15 Jun 2010)

Here come the [broken link removed]. 

The journos must be high-fiving each other all the way to the editors' desks.


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## cork (15 Jun 2010)

TarfHead said:


> My Labour TD, Tommy Broughan, was promising, in 2007, to bring the LUAS and a 3rd level institution to the constituency.
> 
> Wonder what he'll be promising next time  ?



Has gilmore even made up his mind yet on the Croke Park deal?

What a leader.

FG should stick with Kenny IMO.


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## Firefly (15 Jun 2010)

Caveat said:


> He probably said labour would "luas" seats in constitituencies and that the local institutions were at "turd" level.
> 
> (Sorry, had to be done )


 
That's pretty good actually


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## csirl (15 Jun 2010)

TarfHead said:


> My Labour TD, Tommy Broughan, was promising, in 2007, to bring the LUAS and a 3rd level institution to the constituency.
> 
> Wonder what he'll be promising next time  ?


 
Good guess on who I was thinking is in danger of losing his seat. But for a different reason. He objected to the Northside redevelopment PPP project - got it appealed to An Bord Pleanala. This was terminal for the project, costing his constituency €1bn in investment. With PPP projects, the full capital costs are committed to the project on day 1, so if the objections hadnt been made, the project would have proceeded. Unfortunately for Broughan, the delay of 1yr plus meant that by the time planning was given, the economic crash had started. Real bad timing. Will cost Broughan his seat in Dublin North East and cost any chance of Labour picking up a seat in Dublin North Central. Broughan really mis read his constituents views on this matter. The vast majority of people were in favour of the project. Many of those living in disadvantaged areas of Coolock, Darndale etc. would have got employment out of this - lost loads of votes among core Labour supporters.


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## dereko1969 (15 Jun 2010)

I'd be surprised if Broughan doesn't get back in even with all that.

The reason Labour won't break 40 seats (I'd be surprised if they break 30) is as Tarfhead mentioned above, lack of organisation and experience in sharing the vote. There was a definite Labour seat in Dublin South at the last election but by adding Alex White to the ticket the vote was split and didn't transfer fully. If they couldn't get 1 seat last time I can't see them getting 2 there next time.

There are a few constituencies where their current TDs top the poll (or come very close) but a lot of that is personal votes not party, I'm thinking particularly of Willie Penrose, I just don't see the required organisation. There's no way that they'll be able to do a Cyprian Brady for example who got elected with only 500 odd first preferences.


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## DerKaiser (15 Jun 2010)

The_Banker said:


> With PR (as a rule of thumb) the percentage normally does reflect the amount of seats won.


 
The UK is more all or nothing but there are huge variances here between the % and the number of seats.

Sinn fein would win 20 seats if there was a good correlation, but they won't get half that.

FF have won 80 seats with 37% of the vote but labour might only get 40 seats with 32% of the vote.

You really need a detailed analysis of the constituencies.


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## Ceist Beag (16 Jun 2010)

It looks like Bruton has called this one correctly as the way things are going Kenny will step down before any vote tomorrow. I think this could turn out to be a very good move for FG come the next general election.


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## Latrade (17 Jun 2010)

Oh dear:



> Kenny-supporting MEP Jim Higgins raised the temperature with an astonishing attack on rival Richard Bruton’s camp – accusing them of almost acting like fascists.
> 
> “They are simply, if you like, being anti-democratic, it’s almost fascist, if you like, to say I will not serve under Enda Kenny, I will not accept the democratic choice,” he said at the front gate of Leinster House.
> 
> ...


 
I thought democracy also allowed you to move for no confidence in the leader, but it looks like Mr Higgins says if you think that, you're fascist. No true democracy is you get elected and can then never be removed under any circumstances. 


Which sounds the most like fascism?


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## TreeTiger (17 Jun 2010)

Higgins' stance is ridiculous.  Kenny fired Bruton because he said he couldn't have someone on his front bench who had publicly declared that they didn't support him.  So surely it has to follow through that it is impossible for those who have declared their support for Bruton to be on Kenny's front bench (if he survives the vote)?

I also think Bruton has been getting flack unfairly over "causing" this situation.  As I understand it, during a phone call over the weekend, Kenny asked Bruton to publicly declare his support for him (Kenny).  Why did he ask the question if he was not sure what the answer was?


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## Latrade (17 Jun 2010)

TreeTiger said:


> So surely it has to follow through that it is impossible for those who have declared their support for Bruton to be on Kenny's front bench (if he survives the vote)?


 
They won't be, or at least that's Kenny's next move. Unfortunately, if you were to draw up a list of the brightest and the best of FG, most of them have sided with Bruton. Kenny's going to have very slim pickings for his bench.


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## Sunny (17 Jun 2010)

Latrade said:


> They won't be, or at least that's Kenny's next move. Unfortunately, if you were to draw up a list of the brightest and the best of FG, most of them have sided with Bruton. Kenny's going to have very slim pickings for his bench.


 
Unless of course there is a u-turn by many of them! The party is ruining itself. Even if Bruton wins, the strongest members of the front bench apart from Flanagan all supported Kenny. Whoever wins is going to have to do some serious mending of fences.


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## csirl (17 Jun 2010)

> Even if Bruton wins, the strongest members of the front bench apart from Flanagan all supported Kenny


 
This is a matter of opinion. There are some who think that the more progressive members of the front bench - those most likely to attract new voters - supported Bruton. Whereas your traditional Killnascully types supported Kenny.


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## Ceist Beag (17 Jun 2010)

Sunny said:


> Unless of course there is a u-turn by many of them! The party is ruining itself. Even if Bruton wins, the strongest members of the front bench apart from Flanagan all supported Kenny. Whoever wins is going to have to do some serious mending of fences.



Wouldn't agree with your point about the strongest members sticking with Kenny Sunny. I think if Kenny wins it will be hard to recover alright though. It really depends how this vote goes but there is a chance they could become stronger from this if they all rally behind the new leader (should Kenny lose). It's a shame it's come to this tho as personally I liked Kenny as he comes across as a politician with real integrity and values - but these days it seems to be more about personality!


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## Sunny (17 Jun 2010)

csirl said:


> This is a matter of opinion. There are some who think that the more progressive members of the front bench - those most likely to attract new voters - supported Bruton. Whereas your traditional Killnascully types supported Kenny.


 
I agree it's all opinon but Leo Varadkar, Olwyn Enright, Michael Creed, Olivia Mitchell and Billy Timmins are not exactly shining stars of Irish political life. Neither are many who are supporting Enda Kenny so that's why the two camps will have to find someway to work together whoever wins. Flanagan was a huge loss to Kenny.


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## starlite68 (17 Jun 2010)

kenny wins it....happy days.


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## Purple (17 Jun 2010)

Now they are screwed.


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## Staples (17 Jun 2010)

csirl said:


> This is a matter of opinion. There are some who think that the more progressive members of the front bench - those most likely to attract new voters - supported Bruton. Whereas your traditional Killnascully types supported Kenny.


 
You would discount the Killanascully element at your peril.  While it might be convenient to assume that the core talent resides with the Green Isle Nine and their accomplices, they seem like an unreasonably smug group.  

Whoever wins needs to acknowledge and embrace the core traditional group that got FG where they are now.


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## Ceist Beag (17 Jun 2010)

going to be hard for FG to unite again after this - could be a shambles. Be interesting to see what Bruton and his team do now.


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## Staples (17 Jun 2010)

Purple said:


> Now they are screwed.


 
Not necessarily. The outgoing memebers of the front bench aren't necessarily any better than some FG bankbenchers. They were just more prominent. There are potentially two years before the next election within which there would be time for the new front bench to raise their profile.

It seems now that Bruton's strategy was based on a misguided belief that Kenny would fall on his sword with the right encouragement.  Perhaps there's more to the man than we've seen to date.  The experience might even strenghten him.


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## callybags (17 Jun 2010)

Could be an ideal time for Fianna Fail to call a snap election.


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## Purple (17 Jun 2010)

callybags said:


> Could be an ideal time for Fianna Fail to call a snap election.



The ideal time for Happy Gilmore maybe.


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## VOR (17 Jun 2010)

Staples said:


> Perhaps there's more to the man than we've seen to date.



FG are screwed now. The more progressive element of the party have lost. 

Kenny let this happen in a week when FF should have been crucified. The man just has a neck and nothing more than that.

Time for a new party. Time for the next Des O'Malley.


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## Ceist Beag (17 Jun 2010)

Staples said:


> Perhaps there's more to the man than we've seen to date.  The experience might even strenghten him.



I can only hope you're right Staples - right now this country needs a viable alternative government and I'd fear that this week might have seriously damaged that.


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## csirl (17 Jun 2010)

VOR said:


> FG are screwed now. The more progressive element of the party have lost.
> 
> Kenny let this happen in a week when FF should have been crucified. The man just has a neck and nothing more than that.
> 
> Time for a new party. Time for the next Des O'Malley.


 
Agree, Kenny surviving has cost FG the next election. Talk about snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. 

I'm guessing that the vote was very close as they wont reveal the count.


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## starlite68 (17 Jun 2010)

i think kenny has shown what a strong leader he really is! right up until last night everone in the media had him"written off"....but he faced down the 'plotters' and won the day! that takes real courage.


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## MrMan (17 Jun 2010)

I wonder what the spoils of victory will be?


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## mathepac (17 Jun 2010)

Fair play to Inda, the question now is Kinny weld the bits of FG together into a coherent and cohesive whole?


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## Sherman (17 Jun 2010)

vor said:


> time for a new party. Time for the next des o'malley.



+1.


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## Complainer (17 Jun 2010)

starlite68 said:


> kenny wins it....happy days.


Happy Days indeed - For Labour and FF


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## starlite68 (17 Jun 2010)

whatever about labour......FF are finished come election time!


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## Complainer (17 Jun 2010)

cork said:


> Has gilmore even made up his mind yet on the Croke Park deal?


He made up his mind about it a long time ago, and came out with a clear public position that it was a matter for union members to decide. No mystery there. It's really funny to see FF-ers repeatedly dragging up this chestnut - is that really their worst criticism of Gilmore? 



TarfHead said:


> My Labour TD, Tommy Broughan, was promising, in 2007, to bring the LUAS and a 3rd level institution to the constituency.
> 
> Wonder what he'll be promising next time  ?



Strange - no mention of either of those promises on his 2007 leaflet.



csirl said:


> Good guess on who I was thinking is in danger of losing his seat. But for a different reason. He objected to the Northside redevelopment PPP project - got it appealed to An Bord Pleanala. This was terminal for the project, costing his constituency €1bn in investment. With PPP projects, the full capital costs are committed to the project on day 1, so if the objections hadnt been made, the project would have proceeded. Unfortunately for Broughan, the delay of 1yr plus meant that by the time planning was given, the economic crash had started. Real bad timing.


Strange how the 'full capital costs committed on Day 1' didn't work for the residents of St Michael's estate, where McNamara pulled out of the PPP as soon as he realised he'd never be able to sell the apartments. I don't know anything about the Northside project in question, but did we really need yet another set of empty apartments/offices/shops?



Sunny said:


> Real winner is Labour who must be laughing. They say nothing and still become the most popular party in the Country.


No idea where you got the 'say nothing' from. Labour have been far from quiet, and have been releasing major policy initiatives on a pretty regular basis. But if you don't want to listen....


TarfHead said:


> They can't be - they haven't the consitiuency organisations to gain that number of seats.


Would that be the same Labour that leads Dublin City Council? One might wonder how the same constituency organisations got out behind all those councillors (many of whom are chomping at the bit for the chance to run for the big job).


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## Sunny (18 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> No idea where you got the 'say nothing' from. Labour have been far from quiet, and have been releasing major policy initiatives on a pretty regular basis. But if you don't want to listen....


 
You are right. Sign me up. 

[broken link removed]

A two page document on a 5 year education policy. WOW!

And this is just so detailed, I can't get my head around the sophisticated analysis 

[broken link removed]


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## Deiseblue (18 Jun 2010)

They had me at page 1


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## Betsy Og (18 Jun 2010)

I'm delighted for Inda, everyone whinges about politicians with no integrity or honesty, then they get one and he's not showbiz enough.

I've always thought of Kenny as a straight shooter type, a chairman, a leader in the sense of leading a party or a force as opposed to some sort of messianic figure that the media appear to want (Obama, the latest holy grail, hasnt stunned the world yet, though I like his intelligence & liberalism). Its ego that got Ireland into much of the trouble we're in, bankers who could walk on water, Bertie (self-congratulator supreme) and Cowen spending like there'd never be a poor day. 

Inda is more pragmatic, his opponents have come across as jibbers who lost their nerve based on one opinion poll, and while I didnt necessarily agree with him sacking Bruton I think he could yet be the bigger man and offer Bruton his old job back - since its the best offering to the electorate. Kenny to bind and guide the party/government & let the "experts" get on with their expertise.

All this bs about "oh, he didnt perform well in an interview", "he doesnt connect with the people" - I for one am sick of people/the media/the FG jibber element going on like its a Eurostar competition, if I wanted a media man I'd bleedin make Marty Whelan Taoiseach, but since that not the essential role of the Taoiseach then why keep propogating "definitive" statements about aspects of Kenny's performance while are not crucial. 

All these PR types have blown up their own importance, Kenny has delievered at the polling booth, where it really matters. I really believe that we're moving into a post-spin era, where people can spot spoofing from a mile off, and policy and integrity will win votes and seats.

Strange as it seems, if Inda takes back Bruton as Finance, and otherwise picks his best front bench team (be they pro or anti) I think FG may emerge stronger. Lets face it, the way FF are going it almost inconceivable that the next government can be anything other than FG & Labour with FG probably the larger party.

p.s. I'm not in any official Inda fanclub, or a FG member, voted FG last time and FF the time before that (different constituency, all politics local etc).    .. rant over


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## Ceist Beag (18 Jun 2010)

Betsy Og said:


> I'm delighted for Inda, everyone whinges about politicians with no integrity or honesty, then they get one and he's not showbiz enough.
> 
> I've always thought of Kenny as a straight shooter type, a chairman, a leader in the sense of leading a party or a force as opposed to some sort of messianic figure that the media appear to want (Obama, the latest holy grail, hasnt stunned the world yet, though I like his intelligence & liberalism). Its ego that got Ireland into much of the trouble we're in, bankers who could walk on water, Bertie (self-congratulator supreme) and Cowen spending like there'd never be a poor day.
> 
> ...



+1 Betsy. Agree with pretty much all of that (aside maybe from Marty Whelan! ). As I said I also think Kenny is a man of integrity and is to me what you want in a politician, and he is completely different from what you get as leaders on the FF side.


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## sunrock (18 Jun 2010)

No doubt Bruton is a better speaker than Enda Kenny, but his naked grab for to be leader of FG and then almost certainly the next taoiseach,was a bit nauseating.
And it was done on the flimsiest of reasons. He was trying to replace the man who had rebuilt the party and increased their TDs by 20 and is set to be the next taoiseach. Apparently their is no economic policy difference between Bruton and Kenny.Its just that Bruton would prefer to give the FG view as leader than as the economic spokesman.
Given the new situation, I am sure that Bruton and co will take advantage of Kennys offer to be in the shadow front bench again.They will do this without one iota of shame or embarrasment such is the fickleness of politics.
The simple truth is that Enda Kenny will get as many if not more seats for FG as Richard Bruton would in the next election. Apart from the media ,I think the public now realise that a media friendly figure like Bertie Ahearne or a know all like Cowen is not necessary any better for them than a less articulate but more genuine figure like Kenny.


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## csirl (18 Jun 2010)

> Strange how the 'full capital costs committed on Day 1' didn't work for the residents of St Michael's estate, where McNamara pulled out of the PPP as soon as he realised he'd never be able to sell the apartments. I don't know anything about the Northside project in question, but did we really need yet another set of empty apartments/offices/shops?


 
My understanding is that McNamara was still only a preferred bidder - the process had not been completed, so the money was not in the project. Elsewhere, we've seen these projects being delivered with spectacular success e.g. schools bundles, Cork School of Music, National Maritime College, Criminal Courts of Justice and the soon to be opened National Convention Centre.


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## Latrade (18 Jun 2010)

There are two very valid reasons why "popular" doesn't mean great: Haughey and Bertie. Officially the two most popular leaders of all time according to polling. 

There is no denying Enda has taken FG from the pits left by Noonan, united them, built them up and made them more credible. There's no denying he has avoided the traps of popularism (to some extent), that he has integrity and has shown leadership this last week.

However, it isn't just this latest poll, in fact it looks like the movements against Kenny have been brewing for a while now, but there is a large public opinion that they just don't buy Enda as Taoiseach. For whatever reason, at a time when FF have left an open goal practically every month, Enda has failed to score. 

He may have done well up to this point, but to mix sporting metaphors, is he the man to take them over the finish line? Given how low he is in the public polls, maybe not. I don't think Bruton is either, not anymore, maybe 12 months ago he was. But then he went very quiet, when he did speak, you could tell he didn't agree with "the party line", he wasn't convincing. I've seen that in others too. 

Ivan Yates mentioned this morning that from what he'd heard (can't confirm) the final vote was very close, Enda won by 6. The split seems to be very definitely down the old lines it always was, East Vs West more or less. I just don't see this as a long term victory for Kenny. 

FG should be way ahead out there at this time. They aren't and it's under his leadership they haven't capitalised on FF's slump.


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## cork (18 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> He made up his mind about it a long time ago, and came out with a clear public position that it was a matter for union members to decide. No mystery there.



He consistantly refused to express an openion.

Sean Sherlock is the only one in that party with a sense of reality.

All Irish political partys should come up with plans to cut the deficit.


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## csirl (18 Jun 2010)

> However, it isn't just this latest poll, in fact it looks like the movements against Kenny have been brewing for a while now, but there is a large public opinion that they just don't buy Enda as Taoiseach. For whatever reason, at a time when FF have left an open goal practically every month, Enda has failed to score.


 
+1 

The result of the vote suggests that a large proportion of FG politicians dont grasp this point. Their personal opinions of Enda are very different to those of the general public. If the public dont want Enda as Taoiseach, they will not win the next election full stop. Like it or not, public perception is everything in politics.

At this stage, the most likely outcome of an election will be FF, FG & Lab all returning similar numbers of TDs. But with a much higher number of Independents and smaller parties (except Greens) thus meaning that any combination of 2 of the big parties will not be a comfortable majority. I think a lot of floating voters, who without Enda would have voted FG, are now going to use their protest vote differently.


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## Latrade (18 Jun 2010)

csirl said:


> The result of the vote suggests that a large proportion of FG politicians dont grasp this point. Their personal opinions of Enda are very different to those of the general public. If the public dont want Enda as Taoiseach, they will not win the next election full stop. Like it or not, public perception is everything in politics.


 
Maybe Enda is the Rafa Benitez of politics. Nice guy and all that and of some genuine ability, just lacking that je ne sais quoi of winners. 

But then remember those who supported Enda (apart from O'Reilly) are largely from the West and rural areas, maybe they do hear different things to those who are worried about their support and seats in the Dublin area. It still points to a party not listening. The hardcore FG in the west will vote FG even if Bertie switches to FG and becomes leader...maybe not...but they will support whoever the leader is. They aren't the people to be listening to when things are this close, it's those who genuinely haven't made their minds up and aren't convinced Kenny is the man. 

They're the people the "rebels" were encountering on a daily basis in their areas, the "I would vote FG, but I'm not sure about Enda". Nobody want's to hear they've possibly taken things as far as they can, but he's going to have to do something pretty special in the short term to turn this around.


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## Complainer (18 Jun 2010)

cork said:


> He consistantly refused to express an openion.


That is factually untrue.



Sunny said:


> You are right. Sign me up.
> 
> [broken link removed]
> 
> A two page document on a 5 year education policy. WOW!


Yeah, that Google search facility is just sooo tricky, isn't it. Strange how the poster that moans about a 2-page document then doesn't look beyond the first page, to see
[broken link removed]
[broken link removed]
[broken link removed]

But I'm sure you'll continue to nitpick, rather than actually engaging on the content. You indicated that Labour had no policies. The policies are all there, and continue to evolve.



Sunny said:


> And this is just so detailed, I can't get my head around the sophisticated analysis
> 
> [broken link removed]


Damned if you do, and damned if you don't. If they publish the detailed analysis, you'll complain about it being impenetrable and unreadable. If they publish the highlights, you complain about the lack of sophistication.

Let's stop pretending - you just don't like Labour policies and values. But please stop the erroneous nitpicking - it doesn't really add anything to the debate.


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## VOR (18 Jun 2010)

Latrade said:


> But then remember those who supported Enda (apart from O'Reilly) are largely from the West and rural areas, maybe they do hear different things to those who are worried about their support and seats in the Dublin area. It still points to a party not listening.



+1 Latrade.


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## Vanilla (18 Jun 2010)

Enda needs to either have an affair. Maybe with Carla Bruni or Angelina Jolie ( or both?), then repent, be seen dishevelled with some stubble for a bit, beg forgiveness of Mrs.K and tell us all how sorry he is.

Or have a very ill child ( yes, I know this is in poor taste, but this is the reality of public perception), cancer or some other devastating illness. Then appear teary eyed in several interviews.

Or appear to be a bit of a rogue in a harmless, but potentially illegal ( in the grey area as the irish percieve things- which would be black for our english neighbours) way.

Or have a gay affair- no scratch that one, don't think we're ready for that yet.

Or something, anything except his bland general goody two shoes sort of way.


Where the hell are the pr people?


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## Latrade (18 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> You indicated that Labour had no policies. The policies are all there, and continue to evolve.


 
Think about it from the "average voter" view. Aside from a relatively small minority of interested/committed supporters, how many actively go onto the various party websites and read all the policies? It's a sad fact that most voters will get their information from the media and soundbites. 

And so outside of the website, how much specific content have we seen from Gilmore? Well purely from my own view, not much. I've actually heard more specific information given by Rabbitte, and being honest some of it isn't bad (there's a caveat to that). The point is take the clips of Gilmore and what do we actually have in terms of content? We have stabs at the government, well they deserve it, we have a statement saying he'll let the unions decide on Croke Park (yes but Eamon, what do you think of the content, not the process?) and we know what he doesn't like about the government policies.

But without seeking out the information from the website, you wouldn't know half the policies or specifics. The Labour party has them, but Gilmore isn't exactly drawing attention to them when he's in public (I'll concede others in the party are to some extent).

So it is valid to say he's style over substance. And it is an issue given that the majority of voters won't be downloading policy documents off a party's website. That's not Gilmore's problem I'd accept.

The caveat to the Labour policies is that when you do strip them down, yes they are valid and yes they have a point, but that point seems to be accepting many of the cuts highlighted in McCarthy and others. They seem to actually agree with the government on many things, but not on social welfare and a few others. And so that's where I can't support them just yet, we have to consider all expenditure in my opinion. 

But for all the sniping, by and large they're still going to follow the programme of cuts and savings, including the pay for the PS/CS.


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## TarfHead (18 Jun 2010)

Latrade said:


> But then remember those who supported Enda (apart from O'Reilly) are largely from the West and rural areas, maybe they do hear different things to those who are worried about their support and seats in the Dublin area. It still points to a party not listening.


 
Elaine Byrne (TCD Politics lecturer, Irish Times columnist) was tweeting links to pieces this week about the FG urban/rural divide. When the Green Isle 9 appeared on the plinth on Monday, Brian Hayes and Leo Varadkar were kept to the back and Denis Naughten was pushed up front, aside Olwyn Enright. And Olivia Mitchell (Dublin South) but since she was the only other woman in the group, it was more opportunistic to position her at the front.

If only they had put similar thought into rallying the rest of the parliamentary party.

I likes Miriam Lord's tagline this morning "_Cappuccino generation falls to those who eat dinner at midday_"


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## Sunny (18 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> No idea where you got the 'say nothing' from. Labour have been far from quiet, *and have been releasing major policy initiatives on a pretty regular basis.* But if you don't want to listen....


 


Complainer said:


> Yeah, that Google search facility is just sooo tricky, isn't it. Strange how the poster that moans about a 2-page document then doesn't look beyond the first page, to see
> [broken link removed]
> [broken link removed]
> [broken link removed]
> ...


 
Why should I have to use Google instead of the the Labour website to see what their ideas are?

And you can stop using policy documents from 2004 and 2005 to defend your assertion that Labour have been releasing major policy initiatives on a pretty regular basis. So again, what are their policies considering the new economic climate we live in?

You have no idea what my political views are. I have criticised every political party over various issues on this forum.


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## Staples (18 Jun 2010)

Vanilla said:


> Enda needs to either have an affair. Maybe with Carla Bruni or Angelina Jolie ( or both?), then repent, be seen dishevelled with some stubble for a bit, beg forgiveness of Mrs.K and tell us all how sorry he is.
> 
> Or have a very ill child ( yes, I know this is in poor taste, but this is the reality of public perception), cancer or some other devastating illness. Then appear teary eyed in several interviews.
> 
> ...


 
The irony is that he has a great personality. Much more personable when you meet him than say Bertie - the so-called man of the people. 

I was seated next to him (EK) on a flight from Brussels some months ago. He was exceptionally good company and good fun, having the craic with the air hostesses - not a bit like the stiff shirt he comes across as being when he turns up in the Dail. He was comfortably talking to anyone he came into contact with. 

I think his image may be a confidence thing - he's not sure enough about the subjects he's required to get stirred about.  Not sure what he can about except get a bit more stuck into the subject matter and spend a bit less time shaking hands from one end of the country to the other.


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## Bill Struth (18 Jun 2010)

Anyone see the bumpkin on six one last night bouncing out of Dail Eireann shouting "Up Mayo!" "Mayo won it!"

Em, what?


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## TarfHead (18 Jun 2010)

Bill Struth said:


> Anyone see the bumpkin on six one last night bouncing out of Dail Eireann shouting "Up Mayo!" "Mayo won it!"


 
Again, from Miriam Lord's colour piece in the Irish Times



> "Enda’s jubilant supporters, up for the day from Castlebar, wanted to carry their man shoulder-high down the Leinster House plinth. They were gently dissuaded from this course of action by party handlers anxious not to further spook the Dublin vote.
> 
> As it was, they prayed the leader’s live television interview wouldn’t be punctuated by the same visceral roars of “Up Mayo!” that greeted the news of “Inda’s” stunning victory in yesterday’s leadership contest."


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## cork (18 Jun 2010)

A report on RTE news last night said that celerrations were not triumphilant.

It showed people drinking champagne/sparkling wine.


There was even a guy mentioning bonfires.


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## Bill Struth (18 Jun 2010)

Mayo won it??? Won what? I was embarrassed watching the oaf. The parochialism in this country is bloody pathetic.


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## Caveat (18 Jun 2010)

Staples said:


> The irony is that he has a great personality. Much more personable when you meet him than say Bertie - the so-called man of the people.
> 
> I was seated next to him (EK) on a flight from Brussels some months ago. He was exceptionally good company and good fun, having the craic with the air hostesses - not a bit like the stiff shirt he comes across as being when he turns up in the Dail. He was comfortably talking to anyone he came into contact with.
> 
> I think his image may be a confidence thing - he's not sure enough about the subjects he's required to get stirred about. Not sure what he can about except get a bit more stuck into the subject matter and spend a bit less time shaking hands from one end of the country to the other.


 
+1  I have heard of similar experiences.



Bill Struth said:


> Mayo won it??? Won what? I was embarrassed watching the oaf. The parochialism in this country is bloody pathetic.


 
But +1 to this too.


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## Betsy Og (18 Jun 2010)

Has no-one told the bog savages they have no right to a voice?


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## Betsy Og (18 Jun 2010)

Bill Struth said:


> The parochialism in this country is bloody pathetic.


 
True, but it also comes in D4 flavours too. Just because Lucinda doesnt hear them praising Inda in the Merrion Centre, or the papers (dem Dublin meeeejah!!) keep insisting he doesnt connect with the people, she assumes all is lost.......


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## mathepac (18 Jun 2010)

Vanilla said:


> ... Where the hell are the pr people?


Isn't Mrs. Inda a PR type?. She's ex-RTE and an ex-FF press-officer; fairly heavy-duty by all accounts, but I wouldn't know one from a retired Swiss Admiral.


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## Caveat (18 Jun 2010)

mathepac said:


> ...but I wouldn't know one from a retired Swiss Admiral.



You're grand. They're kinda the same thing.


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## Complainer (18 Jun 2010)

Sunny said:


> Why should I have to use Google instead of the the Labour website to see what their ideas are?


Is this for real? You claim that Labour have no policies, because the particular policy that you want isn't on the main policy page? The fact that there is a link on the right side of that page to 'Full Policy Listing' and 'Policy Centre Search' is some sort of criticism on Labour? Will ya get off the stage! The policies are there. If you want to read them, read them. If you don't want to read them, don't. But don't lie about there being no policies just because two or three clicks is too much effort for you.



Sunny said:


> And you can stop using policy documents from 2004 and 2005 to defend  your assertion that Labour have been releasing major policy initiatives  on a pretty regular basis. So again, what are their policies considering  the new economic climate we live in?


There are 9 policy documents from the six months to date of 2010, 30 from 2009, 12 from 2008 and the full General Election policy amongst others from 2007. The policies are there. If you want to read them, read them. If you  don't want to read them, don't. But don't lie about there being no  policies just because two or three clicks is too much effort for you.



Sunny said:


> You have no idea what my political views are. I have criticised every  political party over various issues on this forum.


Did you criticise the others over their real failings, or just stuff that you made up?



Latrade said:


> Think about it from the "average voter" view.  Aside from a relatively small minority of interested/committed  supporters, how many actively go onto the various party websites and  read all the policies? It's a sad fact that most voters will get their  information from the media and soundbites.


 That's true - but I wasn't making this point to get kudos for Labour. I just wanted to point out the factual error in Sunny's claim.



Latrade said:


> And so outside of the website, how much specific content have we seen  from Gilmore? Well purely from my own view, not much. I've actually  heard more specific information given by Rabbitte, and being honest some  of it isn't bad (there's a caveat to that). The point is take the clips  of Gilmore and what do we actually have in terms of content? We have  stabs at the government, well they deserve it, we have a statement  saying he'll let the unions decide on Croke Park (yes but Eamon, what do  you think of the content, not the process?) and we know what he doesn't  like about the government policies.
> 
> But without seeking out the information from the website, you wouldn't  know half the policies or specifics. The Labour party has them, but  Gilmore isn't exactly drawing attention to them when he's in public  (I'll concede others in the party are to some extent).
> 
> So it is valid to say he's style over substance. And it is an issue  given that the majority of voters won't be downloading policy documents  off a party's website. That's not Gilmore's problem I'd accept.


 I hadn't thought too much about this, but you could be onto something. Maybe the media is more interested in showing Gilmore on attack rather than Gilmore on policy? Maybe Gilmore has made a conscious decision to leave the policy issues in the capable hands of Joan and others, and focus on exposing the Govt's track record. 



Latrade said:


> The caveat to the Labour policies is that when you do strip them down,  yes they are valid and yes they have a point, but that point seems to be  accepting many of the cuts highlighted in McCarthy and others. They  seem to actually agree with the government on many things, but not on  social welfare and a few others. And so that's where I can't support  them just yet, we have to consider all expenditure in my opinion.
> 
> But for all the sniping, by and large they're still going to follow the  programme of cuts and savings, including the pay for the PS/CS.


 Labour are very clear about the mess that our current Govt have created, and know that there are no easy solutions. However, you can be absolutely certain that the solutions implemented by Labour in Govt will be based on fundamental principles of fairness, unlike the steps taking by FF and Greena Fail.


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## Sunny (18 Jun 2010)

We get it. You are a labour supporter. I did look at their policy listing. Maybe I am stupid as you imply so maybe you can give me a link to a major policy document on health, justice or education published in the past three years.


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## Complainer (18 Jun 2010)

Sunny said:


> maybe you can give me a link to a major policy document on health, justice or education published in the past three years.


Wow, those goalposts are moving so fast, it is all just a blur to me. First it was 'They say nothing', then it was complaining that the new stuff is too short and the older stuff is too old, now it is picking out the three specific areas/dates where you know the answer is 'No', and setting this up as just a typical question.

It's all a bit spinny. It's OK for you to just say that you don't like Labour. It's OK for you to pick out some of the many policy points that you disagree with. You don't have to keep making up odd criteria that they will fail to meet.

Let's keep it simple, eh? We're off down a bit of a rat-hole, so I'm not going to continue to tease out with you why 50 policy documents in three years does not = 'They say nothing'. If you want to actually talk about policy, let's go for it.


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## Purple (19 Jun 2010)

Sunny said:


> maybe you can give me a link to a major policy document on health, justice or education published in the past three years.


 That's not fair, it's not as if Health, Justice and Education are major areas of spending or important to the countries future.

I read Joan Burtons economic policies before and it is like reading a paper on evolution published by the Catholic Church; their starting point is based on a dogma that colours all that follows.


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## sunrock (20 Jun 2010)

Posters on here are saying that the public wouldn`t like Enda as taoiseach. Presumably they want a slick, polished articulate operator as taoiseach. A few foreign languages would be a bonus.
Does this mean that when people who go into the ballot box in the next general election will say to themselves that ....well I was going to vote for the FG candidate or an anti government or labour candidate,buy hey that might mean Enda could be taoiseach...O.K. I`ll vote back the FF candidate despite all the corruption and my own desperate job/income situation.
The taoiseach selection only comes into play when the numbers are added up after the general election.


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## Latrade (21 Jun 2010)

sunrock said:


> Does this mean that when people who go into the ballot box in the next general election will say to themselves that ....well I was going to vote for the FG candidate or an anti government or labour candidate,buy hey that might mean Enda could be taoiseach...O.K. I`ll vote back the FF candidate despite all the corruption and my own desperate job/income situation.
> The taoiseach selection only comes into play when the numbers are added up after the general election.


 
Whether you say it in jest or as an matter of disbelief, it could well happen.

I'm not privy to the minds of the nation, just people I know at home and work and all say a similar thing that FF are there for the taking, but they just don't "get" Enda. He hasn't sold FG when it should be as easy as selling water in a drought. 

One thing that did strike me is how much of the Labour swing is accounted for by the PS votes moving from FF?


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## sunrock (21 Jun 2010)

Well if FG get an extra 10 seats ,which should be possible no matter who their leader is.And labour get an extra 10 which is likely or even 15 extra TDs between them,then they have the numbers and FG as the largest party will nominate Enda as taoiseach.
That is not even taking into account smaller parties and independants who might vote for a FG/labour coalition or even abstain.
The good thing about Enda is that he delegates  power to his ministers. He is not a control freak like Haughey, so if his front bench are good , the public can look at the ministers ability.
Given how successful he was in bringing out the FG vote I suspect that Enda will get  a much increased vote this time.People want integrity, and remember Enda was going for taoiseach at the last election also. And at election time people will be hurting like never before. The ever increasing unemployed have nowhere to emigrate to.
To be honest ,if as I suspect we get a FG/lab coalition there won`t be any real policy change, just the same FF medicine of austerity.


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## Complainer (21 Jun 2010)

I really don't think Enda will ever be Taoiseach. If he is still in charge of FG when the election comes round, he will be their limiting factor again. I did hear some speculation over the weekend that Bruton's coup was engineered by some of the young FG turks (the Hayes/Verodokar axis) who are very happy to see Bruton off the agenda for the next round of leadership battles.


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## csirl (21 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> I really don't think Enda will ever be Taoiseach. If he is still in charge of FG when the election comes round, he will be their limiting factor again. I did hear some speculation over the weekend that Bruton's coup was engineered by some of the young FG turks (the Hayes/Verodokar axis) who are very happy to see Bruton off the agenda for the next round of leadership battles.


 
Agree.

I think that Labour will nominate Gilmore and Labour combined with SF and left wing leaning independents will have similar numbers to FG. Labour has always had an mercenary streak and will use the threat of going into Government with FF to ensure that Gilmore is Taoiseach. They may even go into Government with FF if FF let Gilmore be Taoiseach.


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## Ceist Beag (21 Jun 2010)

csirl said:


> Agree.
> 
> I think that Labour will nominate Gilmore and Labour combined with SF and left wing leaning independents will have similar numbers to FG. Labour has always had an mercenary streak and will use the threat of going into Government with FF to ensure that Gilmore is Taoiseach. They may even go into Government with FF if FF let Gilmore be Taoiseach.



csirl I'm surprised you think this. Do you honestly think FF would go into government with Gilmore as Taoiseach? That would be political suicide! And there is no chance that Labour plus others would have as many seats as FG. Kenny will be the next Taoiseach, make no mistake about it, it's only a matter of whether it will be in 2 years time or sooner.


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## Complainer (21 Jun 2010)

Ceist Beag said:


> csirl I'm surprised you think this. Do you honestly think FF would go into government with Gilmore as Taoiseach? That would be political suicide!


So you reckon they would be better off staying in opposition (from their POV I mean)?


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## Ceist Beag (21 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> So you reckon they would be better off staying in opposition (from their POV I mean)?



They being Labour or FF?


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## Complainer (21 Jun 2010)

ceist beag said:


> they being labour or ff?


ff


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## Ceist Beag (22 Jun 2010)

Obviously they would be Complainer. Why on earth would they want to go into government with the Taoiseach coming from the smaller party in the coalition? That would be madness. And if Labour honestly think that Gilmore has any chance of being Taoiseach after the next general election then they must be getting too much sun!


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## Firefly (22 Jun 2010)

Sunny said:


> We get it. You are a labour supporter. I did look at their policy listing. Maybe I am stupid as you imply so maybe you can give me a link to a major policy document on health, justice or education published in the past three years.


 
Still no link received on this...


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## Complainer (22 Jun 2010)

Ceist Beag said:


> Obviously they would be Complainer. Why on earth would they want to go into government with the Taoiseach coming from the smaller party in the coalition? That would be madness.


Because being in Government means being in power. Being out of Government means having no power. FF have no value system - the only think they can offer their followers is the fruits of being in power. If they are out of power, that is political suicide for them.



Firefly said:


> Still no link received on this...


The point was answered. There are 50 substantial policy documents produced over the last three years, covering a broad range of areas. Some of the policies do cover the areas requested, i.e.

Guardianship of children - Health & Justice
Labour's priorities in Education - Education
Broad consensus now gathering behind health insurance - Health
Institutional child abuse bill - Health, Justice and education
Youth attitude - education
Safer towns and cities - Justice
Never again - Justice
Commuter belt living - Justice, Education
Cherishing Children - Justice, health, education

But hey, let's not let little facts around policy get in the way of a good slanging match.


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## Liamos (22 Jun 2010)

FF would never in a million years go into a coalition where the smaller party's leader became Taoiseach. The most Gilmore could expect would be to be made Tanaiste.


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## Complainer (22 Jun 2010)

Liamos said:


> FF would never in a million years go into a coalition where the smaller party's leader became Taoiseach. The most Gilmore could expect would be to be made Tanaiste.


You're right there - if the outcome is indeed that FF is the larger party. That is by no means certain or even likely at the moment.


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## Liamos (22 Jun 2010)

You're not suggesting Labour are going to have more seats than FF? Even if FF lost 25 seats and Labour gained all 25, FF would still have more seats.


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## Ceist Beag (22 Jun 2010)

Complainer I think you're getting caught up in all these daft polls going on these days. Lets just put some facts on the board. The most Labour have ever won at a general election in the last 40 odd years is 33 seats. In the last election FF won 78 seats. Even the most diehard Labour fans would know they would be laughed out of the house if they suggested they would win more seats than FF in the next general election. Labour are on an upward trend, no doubt about that but I think you need to step back from the hype to see that they have a heck of a long way to go to challenge FF and FG in terms of numbers.


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## Sunny (22 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> Because being in Government means being in power. Being out of Government means having no power. FF have no value system - the only think they can offer their followers is the fruits of being in power. If they are out of power, that is political suicide for them.
> 
> 
> The point was answered. There are 50 substantial policy documents produced over the last three years, covering a broad range of areas. Some of the policies do cover the areas requested, i.e.
> ...


 
Don't really want to get into this but...

_Labour's priorities in Education_ is a 2 page glossy document that says nothing.
_Broad consensus now gathering behind helath insurance_ is a speach by Eamonn Gilmore 
_Youth Attitude_ is not a policy document. It's a survey of young people. Labour don't even specify how they are going to deal with the findings of the survey
_Safer towns and cities_ is laudable but where do they stand on sentencing, prison spaces, bail laws, anti social behaviour etc.
_Never Again_ is not a justice policy. There are some decent ideas in there about whistleblowing and FOI but any document that mentions 'Galway Tent' Economics is a political statement rather than a policy document.
_Cherishing Children_ is not an education, health of justice policy document. It's a light and fluffy piece. They criticise rising class sizes but don't make a committment to reduce them. Where do they stand on that? Where do they stand on third level funding?

FG and FF are just as bad in many ways but in my opinion are more likely to make tough policy announcements rather than take the populist view (in this current climate). They were just as woeful in previous years. 

For example, where does Labour stand on water charges? Enda Kenny tried to avoid the issue and got hammered for it. Eamonn Gilmore has done exactly the same thing.

_“Well that is something that we’re actually looking at, at the moment.” He added: “We have to look at what the European rules are on it; we have to look at the cost of metering._” (The Irish Times, 19th May 2010).


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## Complainer (22 Jun 2010)

Sunny said:


> Don't really want to get into this but...
> 
> _Labour's priorities in Education_ is a 2 page glossy document that says nothing.
> _Broad consensus now gathering behind helath insurance_ is a speach by Eamonn Gilmore
> ...



Like most parties, there is good and bad in all these publications. I don't make claims of infallibility for Labour.  Great to see that we've moved on from your earlier post of 'They say nothing' to 'I don't like what Labour says'.


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## DerKaiser (22 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> Like most parties, there is good and bad in all these publications. I don't make claims of infallibility for Labour. Great to see that we've moved on from your earlier post of 'They say nothing' to 'I don't like what Labour says'.


 
For me Sunny's post appeared to be an expansion of the many ways in which labour has sat on the fence and said nothing rather than any criticism of their (non-existant) policies which you seem to have inexplicably taken from the post.


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## Sunny (22 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> Like most parties, there is good and bad in all these publications. I don't make claims of infallibility for Labour. Great to see that we've moved on from your earlier post of 'They say nothing' to 'I don't like what Labour says'.


 
I didn't say I didn't like what Labour say. How could I not like making public places safer for women and cherishing children. I just don't know where they stand on the issues that matter to me. 
I stand my assertion that Eamonn Gilmore and Labour are playing populist politics and taking the easy road by criticising Government policies but being vague on their own ideas. I admired him for handling John O' Donaghue the way he did but that was an easy vote getter. His reluctance to committ on items like water charges is more telling in my opinion.


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## csirl (22 Jun 2010)

> Because being in Government means being in power. Being out of Government means having no power. FF have no value system - the only think they can offer their followers is the fruits of being in power. If they are out of power, that is political suicide for them.


 
I agree with this. If FF can stay in Government they will. They'd go into coalition with anyone.

I also agree with those posters who say FF will have more seats than Labour - maybe only by 10 seats or so, but still more. I think FG will be slightly dissappointed - will gain some seats, but Kenny's presence will ensure that a lot of the floating/protest vote will go to independents and others rather than FG. Next election will be a good time to be an independent candidate. 

The result is going to be Labour auctioning their support to the highest bidder (FF or FG).

Looking further into the future, as I've said before, elections will be between FG & Labour, with FF as the third party. I can see a situation whereby FF promises the earth to Labour, goes into coalition with them. Coalition doesnt go full term, FF remain unpopular - Labour forces another election (probably due to disagreement on some social or union issue) and FF lose further seats.


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## Liamos (22 Jun 2010)

FF may promise the earth to Labour in order to stay in power but that would not include offering a smaller party the Taoiseach's job as you stated might happen earlier.


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## VOR (22 Jun 2010)

I have to admit I admired Kenny yesterday when he ruled out going in to government with SF. And to do it while in the North was a nice touch. For that I give him credit.

I wonder will FF and Labour show the same resolve? I doubt FF will get the opportunity to make up a government but I wonder about Labour. Afterall, Labour and Sinn Fein come from the same stock.


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## Complainer (22 Jun 2010)

Liamos said:


> FF may promise the earth to Labour in order to stay in power but that would not include offering a smaller party the Taoiseach's job as you stated might happen earlier.



I never said that this might happen, that Gilmore would be Taoiseach as leader of the smaller party. As I pointed out to you earlier, Gilmore will be Taoiseach if Labour are the largest party, i.e. if the results of the Irish Times poll hold good until the election.



VOR said:


> I wonder will FF and Labour show the same resolve? I doubt FF will get the opportunity to make up a government but I wonder about Labour. Afterall, Labour and Sinn Fein come from the same stock.


Seems unlikely that Labour and SF would have the numbers, even with a few stray independents thrown into the mix. Certainly there is nothing in it for Labour now to create a 'left alliance' with SF/SP/SWP. This would just lose votes for Labour on the left.



csirl said:


> The result is going to be Labour auctioning their support to the highest bidder (FF or FG).



Not true. The Irish Times poll blows away the idea that Labour will be the 3rd party, who's best hope is to be a junior coalition partner. This could go any direction, including the direction of a Labour-led coalition.

If Labour does end up as a junior partner, Gilmore has already ruled out him going into Government with FF. In my opinion, it is a mistake to rule this out, purely from a negotiations point of view. It puts him in a weak position to negotiate with FG.




DerKaiser said:


> For me Sunny's post appeared to be an expansion of the many ways in which labour has sat on the fence and said nothing rather than any criticism of their (non-existant) policies which you seem to have inexplicably taken from the post.





Sunny said:


> I didn't say I didn't like what Labour say. How could I not like making public places safer for women and cherishing children. I just don't know where they stand on the issues that matter to me.
> I stand my assertion that Eamonn Gilmore and Labour are playing populist politics and taking the easy road by criticising Government policies but being vague on their own ideas. I admired him for handling John O' Donaghue the way he did but that was an easy vote getter. His reluctance to committ on items like water charges is more telling in my opinion.


I really don't think that is a fair assessment. Labour have a solid track record of giving clear and alternative options. They were the only party to oppose and question the bank guarantee, and the Honahan report backs up the Labour concerns in this area in relation to guaranteeing the bond holders. They have put alternative policies out in Health - Universal Health Insurance has been Labour policy since 2002, and FG jumped on that bandwagon recently. They have clear alternative policies in Education, to keep universal access to all levels of education. The policies are all there.

To highlight 'water charges' as a substantive issue is just nitpicking. Given the current mess that we are in, really, who cares about water charges.


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## Ceist Beag (22 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> I never said that this might happen, that Gilmore would be Taoiseach as leader of the smaller party. As I pointed out to you earlier, Gilmore will be Taoiseach if Labour are the largest party, i.e. if the results of the Irish Times poll hold good until the election.


Dream on Complainer, that poll was flawed and surely you know it is nothing but a pipe dream that Labour could even come close to being the largest party!



Complainer said:


> Not true. The Irish Times poll blows away the idea that Labour will be the 3rd party, who's best hope is to be a junior coalition partner. This could go any direction, including the direction of a Labour-led coalition.


Nonsense, Labour are still and will remain the 3rd party for the foreseeable future. You don't go from 21 seats to 60+ seats just because you have a popular leader! You're completely blinkered by meaningless polls Complainer.


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## Sunny (22 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> I really don't think that is a fair assessment. Labour have a solid track record of giving clear and alternative options. They were the only party to oppose and question the bank guarantee, and the Honahan report backs up the Labour concerns in this area in relation to guaranteeing the bond holders. They have put alternative policies out in Health - Universal Health Insurance has been Labour policy since 2002, and FG jumped on that bandwagon recently. They have clear alternative policies in Education, to keep universal access to all levels of education. The policies are all there.
> 
> To highlight 'water charges' as a substantive issue is just nitpicking. Given the current mess that we are in, really, who cares about water charges.


 
But items like water charges, property taxes etc are substantive issues in the area of taxation policy.
I enjoy all the fire and brimstonen that comes out of Labour everytime a difficult decision is made but I expect more substantive policy from the the most popular party in the Country.
I can't agree with your analysis of Honahan's report. Labour was against ANY Guarantee. Honahan said an extensive guarantee was necessary but there were flaws. What was Labour's alternative suggestion? 
I am all for free third level education but how do Labour intend to pay for it. I don't see how any party can rule out any sort of money saving idea in the current climate. Trying to pretend that tough decisions can be avoided is populist politics. I can't remember any policy that Labour announced that ran the chance of alienating any section of the voting public. At least FG came out with pay freeze for public sector workers whether they were right or wrong.   
I will give you the Universal Health Insurance Idea! Interesting idea but I haven't heard too much detail from either FG or Labour.


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## csirl (22 Jun 2010)

A lot can change over the next couple of years. Anyone know anything about this new proposed party that the Sindo mentioned last Sunday?

A new party consisting of the FG members who opposed Kenny, the reminants of the PDs and a few extras incl a couple of ex-FF TDs would attract a lot of support.


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## Complainer (22 Jun 2010)

Ceist Beag said:


> Dream on Complainer, that poll was flawed and surely you know it is nothing but a pipe dream that Labour could even come close to being the largest party!
> 
> 
> Nonsense, Labour are still and will remain the 3rd party for the foreseeable future. You don't go from 21 seats to 60+ seats just because you have a popular leader! You're completely blinkered by meaningless polls Complainer.



I wouldn't advise anyone to be giving up the day job on the results of one poll, but this is a lot more than one poll. Labour have been ahead of FF (i.e. 2nd party) on every poll for the last 12 months. Labour have been the top rating party in Dublin on almost every poll for the past 18 months. Not party leader ratings - but top party - party that will get your no.1 vote. 

Both of the main polls MRBI and Red C showed +8% rise in support for Labour in their most recent outings. These are serious findings. Ignore them at your peril.



Sunny said:


> But items like water charges, property taxes etc are substantive issues in the area of taxation policy.
> I enjoy all the fire and brimstonen that comes out of Labour everytime a difficult decision is made but I expect more substantive policy from the the most popular party in the Country.
> I can't agree with your analysis of Honahan's report. Labour was against ANY Guarantee. Honahan said an extensive guarantee was necessary but there were flaws. What was Labour's alternative suggestion?
> I am all for free third level education but how do Labour intend to pay for it. I don't see how any party can rule out any sort of money saving idea in the current climate. Trying to pretend that tough decisions can be avoided is populist politics. I can't remember any policy that Labour announced that ran the chance of alienating any section of the voting public. At least FG came out with pay freeze for public sector workers whether they were right or wrong.
> I will give you the Universal Health Insurance Idea! Interesting idea but I haven't heard too much detail from either FG or Labour.



Labour was not against ANY guarantee, and clearly distinguished between the need to protect depositors and the need to protect borrowers at the time. See [broken link removed]. Please stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

Labour hasn't shyed away from tough decision, and has a detailed alternative budget for 2010 with a "full year adjustment of €5.8bn". 

It's all there.


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## Ceist Beag (22 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> Both of the main polls MRBI and Red C showed +8% rise in support for Labour in their most recent outings. These are serious findings. Ignore them at your peril.


Complainer either you are being mischievous with your argument or you simply don't do maths very well! +8% on 21 seats would return you 22, possibly 23 seats at the next general election - in order for Labour to be contenders for largest party as you seem to suggest they are capable of doing I think you would need in the order of 200% rise in support! Would you care to outline exactly how you think Labour would achieve 40 extra seats at the next general election?


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## Shawady (22 Jun 2010)

Labour got 33 seats in 1992 with 19% of the vote. I don't see them become the biggest party next time out but if they polled in the mid 20's they might get around 40 seats.
What might happen in next election is 3 mid-size parties of 40-50 seats.
I think the past week will come back to haunt FG.


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## Firefly (22 Jun 2010)

Ceist Beag said:


> Would you care to outline exactly how you think Labour would achieve 40 extra seats at the next general election?


 
Restoring the PS pay cuts


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## Liamos (22 Jun 2010)

Complainer, I wasn't referring to you. I was referring to csirl who said earlier that FF might offer Gilmore the Taoiseach's job. 

By the way, all this talk of Labour becoming the largest or even the second largest party in the country based on opinion poll results is just plain silly. Labour do not have the party structure particularly outside of Dublin to win enough seats to challenge FF or FG.


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## Ceist Beag (22 Jun 2010)

Firefly said:


> Restoring the PS pay cuts



 Maybe Labour have secretly recruited the FG rebel group to boost their numbers!


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## Complainer (22 Jun 2010)

Ceist Beag said:


> Complainer either you are being mischievous with your argument or you simply don't do maths very well! +8% on 21 seats would return you 22, possibly 23 seats at the next general election - in order for Labour to be contenders for largest party as you seem to suggest they are capable of doing I think you would need in the order of 200% rise in support! Would you care to outline exactly how you think Labour would achieve 40 extra seats at the next general election?



I think it is you that needs the maths lesson. Firstly, Labour is up way more than 8% in the polls since the last general election - more like 20% I'd guess. Regardless, +8% in first preference votes does not = +8% in number of seats. Have a look at this interesting analysis, applying the MRBI poll results to every constituency in the country, coming out with Labour and FG neck and neck.

http://politicalreform.ie/2010/06/11/the-irish-timesispos-mrbi-poll-a-geographical-dissection/



Shawady said:


> Labour got 33 seats in 1992 with 19% of the vote. I don't see them become the biggest party next time out but if they polled in the mid 20's they might get around 40 seats.
> What might happen in next election is 3 mid-size parties of 40-50 seats.
> I think the past week will come back to haunt FG.


That is indeed a possible scenario, similar to the result that I linked above. That will lead to some interesting horse trading in the short-term, and to the extinction of FF in the long term.



Liamos said:


> Complainer, I wasn't referring to you. I was referring to csirl who said earlier that FF might offer Gilmore the Taoiseach's job.
> 
> By the way, all this talk of Labour becoming the largest or even the second largest party in the country based on opinion poll results is just plain silly. Labour do not have the party structure particularly outside of Dublin to win enough seats to challenge FF or FG.


Thanks for the clarification. Again, don't make simple assumptions about Labour's strength. Labour has very solid councillors in place around much of the country, Galway, Limerick, Tipp, etc and has also been successfully at pulling in independents like Jerry Crowley and Kelly in Roscommon. They will all add up.


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## csirl (22 Jun 2010)

Liamos said:


> Complainer, I wasn't referring to you. I was referring to csirl who said earlier that FF might offer Gilmore the Taoiseach's job.
> 
> .


 
​I think Labour will offer to go into coalition with FF if Gilmore is offered the Taoiseachs job.


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## Liamos (22 Jun 2010)

Now I know you're not being serious. The extinction of FF????


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## Complainer (22 Jun 2010)

Liamos said:


> Now I know you're not being serious. The extinction of FF????


Once Ireland moves on from Civil War politics to a traditional right-left divide (or centre-right to centre-left) divide like the rest of Europe, FF are history. They have nothing to offer their followers once they lose power.


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## Caveat (22 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> Once Ireland moves on from Civil War politics to a traditional right-left divide (or centre-right to centre-left) divide like the rest of Europe, FF are history. They have nothing to offer their followers once they lose power.


 
I kind of agree but I think it's highly unlikely in the short term anyway that Ireland will move away from civil war politics.


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## Latrade (23 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> Once Ireland moves on from Civil War politics to a traditional right-left divide (or centre-right to centre-left) divide like the rest of Europe, FF are history. They have nothing to offer their followers once they lose power.


 
Couldn't agree more, but it won't be FF who are the only casualties and at the same time we also need to move on from Cloth Cap Socialism. There's just too much of a "team sport" behind political parties, party lines drawn that will never be crossed. 

FF will survive until there's a viable alternative. Labour's lesson is across the water with the Lib Dems, strong polls, not a great election result (based on expectation).


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## Complainer (23 Jun 2010)

Latrade said:


> Labour's lesson is across the water with the Lib Dems, strong polls, not a great election result (based on expectation).


Yes and no, there is a lesson there, but the first-past-the-post system will always give dramatically different outcomes than our singlej-transferable-vote system. If the UK had an STV system, the LibDems would be in a very different situation now.


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## csirl (24 Jun 2010)

Complainer said:


> Once Ireland moves on from Civil War politics to a traditional right-left divide (or centre-right to centre-left) divide like the rest of Europe, FF are history. They have nothing to offer their followers once they lose power.


 
I agree. FF wont cease to exist, they'll probably become the 'third' party in the system with c.15-20% of vote. In 10+ years time it will be FG v Labour in most elections.


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## Purple (24 Jun 2010)

I don't know about that. The three major parties overlap considerable on policy and position on the Right-Left scale. It's really about personality at leadership and front bench level. Who knows what the future holds.


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