# IT article: How to make housing more affordable, from VAT cuts to planning reform



## Brendan Burgess (2 Dec 2022)

How to make housing more affordable, from VAT cuts to planning reform
					

Rising interest rates, construction-cost inflation and an increase in the cost of living threaten to make the affordability crisis far worse




					www.irishtimes.com
				




A long article. I will read it and summarise it later.


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## Purple (2 Dec 2022)

Nothing there to address the actual cost of construction but the points on planning reform are important.


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## CorkHome2022 (21 Dec 2022)

Purple said:


> Nothing there to address the actual cost of construction but the points on planning reform are important.


The big push for A rated homes has made them very expesnive when compared to exisiting stock that would be a C rating or maybe even a low B , I know a few people that find the A rating house very uncomfortable as it just gets too warm where as while they had to heat the lower rated house they had a more comfortable living environment , we dont really get extreme cold here so do we actually need to spec our new builds so high ??? And please will the Green Taliban see this in its proper perspective .


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## Jazz01 (21 Dec 2022)

@CorkHome2022 - I'm in an A rated home for the last number of years, and don't find it uncomfortable, opposite in fact. Moving from a B3 to my current home was a huge jump in comfort levels.

Also in the area I'm in here, with lower rated homes are selling for more money (equal size homes, but larger plots) than the current build of A rated homes, so supply / demand is still dictating the prices.

The whole construction side of houses is still too labour intensive. I do wonder why we haven't embraced the modular homes more in this country.


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## Leo (21 Dec 2022)

CorkHome2022 said:


> I know a few people that find the A rating house very uncomfortable as it just gets too warm


A building over-heating is a sign of inadequate ventilation, not how well insulated or energy efficient it is. 



CorkHome2022 said:


> we dont really get extreme cold here so do we actually need to spec our new builds so high ??? And please will the Green Taliban see this in its proper perspective .


The Green Taliban I love it, they're fighting the good fight against ignorance and misinformation.


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## CorkHome2022 (21 Dec 2022)

Jazz01 said:


> @CorkHome2022 - I'm in an A rated home for the last number of years, and don't find it uncomfortable, opposite in fact. Moving from a B3 to my current home was a huge jump in comfort levels.
> 
> Also in the area I'm in here, with lower rated homes are selling for more money (equal size homes, but larger plots) than the current build of A rated homes, so supply / demand is still dictating the prices.
> 
> The whole construction side of houses is still too labour intensive. I do wonder why we haven't embraced the modular homes more in this country.


During the Celtic Tiger years a few companies had started the modular process , the big problem with Labour costs is quite simple , the workforce that was building over 50000 houses a year immigrated to greener pastures and have not returned and will not now as they discovered much better lifestyles abroad , just look at how we are struggling to build 20000 homes a year now .
Would you return from abroad with the costs of living here ???


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## DannyBoyD (21 Dec 2022)

Leo said:


> Green Taliban


I wonder if referencing the Taliban in order to express ones disapproval will soon become subject to Godwins Law?


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## Leo (21 Dec 2022)

CorkHome2022 said:


> the workforce that was building over 50000 houses a year immigrated to greener pastures


Not so much emmigration as reverse migration. For the most part, they went home. 

Poland and Lithuania accounted for more than 320,000 workers who arrived in Ireland between 2004 and 2007. The bust here combined with shrinking unemployment at home and a doubling of construction pay meant they could settle and find employment at home.


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## T McGibney (21 Dec 2022)

Leo said:


> Poland and Lithuania accounted for more than 320,000 workers who arrived in Ireland between 2004 and 2007. The bust here combined with shrinking unemployment at home and a doubling of construction pay meant they could settle and find employment at home.


We were never really dependent on Eastern European construction workers though. Our construction boom was almost a decade old when post-2004 accession state immigration became a significant phenomenon. From what I recall, the bulk of the new immigrants worked in the service sector and small manufacturing.


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## CorkHome2022 (21 Dec 2022)

DannyBoyD said:


> I wonder if referencing the Taliban in order to express ones disapproval will soon become subject to Godwins Law?


My problem with the Green Taliban is that they have no pragmatism and cannot/ will not look at reality. 
Wind and Solar wont solve our energy needs but they will not consider nuclear but have no issue with an inter connector to France .
They want rid of petrol/diesel cars yet will not consider the work being done re carbon neutral fuels which means nobody needs to rush out and spend 40k on a car ( alot of people cant afford this ) , plus the Electricity Grid simply does not have the physical capacity for such a switch to EV .
The grid cannot supply our needs as it would melt the same way you cannot plug in 20 electrical devices to 1 socket using extension leads etc .
When the only way to get people to switch is to penalise by way of carbon taxes is proof that the Green Alternative is not the cheaper option , the vast majority of people know this which is why the Greens only got 7% of the vote last time out . 
I am all in favour of ending our dependence on Russian and OPEC energy but this has to be practical and good for peoples pockets , that offends the Green Taliban . 
When it comes to misinformation the new Green Industry will lie and cheat their way to profit in the very same way the oil industry has , be under no illusion about that .


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## T McGibney (21 Dec 2022)

DannyBoyD said:


> I wonder if referencing the Taliban in order to express ones disapproval will soon become subject to Godwins Law?


You don't seem to properly understand Godwin's Law.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (21 Dec 2022)

Leo said:


> Not so much emmigration as reverse migration. For the most part, they went home.
> 
> Poland and Lithuania accounted for more than 320,000 workers who arrived in Ireland between 2004 and 2007. The bust here combined with shrinking unemployment at home and a doubling of construction pay meant they could settle and find employment at home.


Census 2006 showed 63k people with birthplace "Poland" although there was no breakdown by Polish nationality.

By Census 2011 there were 123k people who described themselves as having Polish nationality and this was stable at 123k in 2016.

There were gross flows of course but in net terms there is no evidence that the Polish population shrank.


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## T McGibney (21 Dec 2022)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> There were gross flows of course but in net terms there is no evidence that the Polish population shrank.


Of course it didn't.


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## CorkHome2022 (21 Dec 2022)

T McGibney said:


> You don't seem to properly understand Godwin's Law.


The Hitler analogy not quite applicable here  , Taliban better one , the preach a code of ethics/values from the 6th Century while driving around in a SUV armed with AK47s almost like drive the EV its CO2 free driving , its is if you subtact all the CO2 and energy that went into making it and keeping the Lithium Battery charged , fossil fuels refined for the tyres  . The lack of pragmatism and acceptance of the real world is the problem .


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## Leo (21 Dec 2022)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> By Census 2011 there were 123k people who described themselves as having Polish nationality and this was stable at 123k in 2016.


PPS numbers were issued to more than 260k Poles from May '04 to December '07.  It was reported in 2008 that they were leaving at a rate of up to 1,300 per week.


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## T McGibney (21 Dec 2022)

Leo said:


> It was reported in 2008


dead link


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## Leo (21 Dec 2022)

T McGibney said:


> dead link


Similar here, the 'exodus was widely reported at the time, more here, here, etc..


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## NoRegretsCoyote (21 Dec 2022)

Leo said:


> PPS numbers were issued to more than 260k Poles from May '04 to December '07.



See my point above:



NoRegretsCoyote said:


> *There were gross flows of course* but in net terms there is no evidence that the Polish population shrank.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (21 Dec 2022)

It's also a myth that non-Irish workers are disproportionately found in construction.

See Figure 5 here.


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## Leo (21 Dec 2022)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> See my point above:


But did all the Poles who were working construction just sign-on for the duration of the crash or did they leave?


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## T McGibney (21 Dec 2022)

Deleted


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## T McGibney (21 Dec 2022)

Deleted


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## T McGibney (21 Dec 2022)

Leo said:


> Similar here, the 'exodus was widely reported at the time, more here, here, etc..


The first of those links is contemporary speculation: _"The number of people leaving Ireland next year will outstrip those moving to the country for the first time in 14 years, according to Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin."_
The second is a paywalled US source.
The third is refers to 2015 study that correctly asserts that "the number of people leaving Ireland more than tripled between 2008 and 2012" but makes reference in that context to neither Eastern Europeans nor construction workers.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (21 Dec 2022)

Leo said:


> But did all the Poles who were working construction just sign-on for the duration of the crash or did they leave?


There is employment/seeking employment/inactivity in home/host country. That's a matrix of six cells and possible movement between any one to any other. 

It's impossible to generalise but the stereotype of Jarek the Polish plumber who arrived on 1 May 2004 and left in October 2009 when he lost his job does not have much basis in reality.


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## DannyBoyD (22 Dec 2022)

T McGibney said:


> You don't seem to properly understand Godwin's Law.


You don't appear to understand my post.


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## T McGibney (22 Dec 2022)

DannyBoyD said:


> You don't appear to understand my post.


How? It's not exactly cryptic.


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## Leo (22 Dec 2022)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> It's impossible to generalise but the stereotype of Jarek the Polish plumber who arrived on 1 May 2004 and left in October 2009 when he lost his job does not have much basis in reality.


The 2011 census showed 123k people of Polish descent living here. Less than half the number who were issued PPS numbers from 2004 to 2007. 

Even if there were zero Poles living here before May 2004 which we know is not the case, how do you account for 140k+ Poles failing to identify as such in the census? 

Anyway, my post here was really pointing out the fallacy that all those who were building houses in the boom were Irish and subsequently emigrated and never returned.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (22 Dec 2022)

Leo said:


> The 2011 census showed 123k people of Polish descent living here. Less than half the number who were issued PPS numbers from 2004 to 2007.
> 
> Even if there were zero Poles living here before May 2004 which we know is not the case, how do you account for 140k+ Poles failing to identify as such in the census?


Because it's not 1851 when people got the boat to American and were never seen again! Lots of Polish people came for short periods of time and were replaced by other Polish people.  You can get a job offer in Katowice and leave Dublin in the morning on a €50 Ryanair flight (or vice versa). Gross flows do not equal net flows. PPSNs are also issued to lots of people who have never and will never live in Ireland, for example for inheritance purposes.



T McGibney said:


> Our construction boom was almost a decade old when post-2004 accession state immigration became a significant phenomenon. From what I recall, the bulk of the new immigrants worked in the service sector and small manufacturing.


I talked to someone who looked very closely at this issue at the time and said exactly this. I'm not sure if it was every published but basically he found that immigrants went to fill low-paid jobs in sectors being vacated by the natives who were leaving to work in construction which was much better paid. The 2004-2007 immigration spurt certainly fuelled the contruction boom which as you point out was well under way. On the supply side immigration freed up more native employment for construction, and on the demand side of course all these immigrants needed a roof.


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## Leo (22 Dec 2022)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> PPSNs are also issued to lots of people who have never and will never live in Ireland, for example for inheritance purposes.


Ah, I get it. there was a massive increase in the number of Irish people leaving inheritance to Poles.

Put it a different way, where's the evidence saying that recently arrived foreign builders did not leave the country during the bust?


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## NoRegretsCoyote (22 Dec 2022)

Leo said:


> Ah, I get it. there was a massive increase in the number of Irish people leaving inheritance to Poles.


My point is that PPSNs are an imperfect measure of inward migration as there are other reasons to receive one other than employment. There can also be different patterns of employment for example EU nationals are more likely to come and go for seasonal employment than people from countries where you need a solid job offer in advance. So more PPSNs issued (flow) for the same population (stock) at the Census. For these reasons I tell people that drawing firm inferences based on PPSN data is hazardous. 



Leo said:


> Put it a different way, where's the evidence saying that recently arrived foreign builders did not leave the country during the bust?


People come and go all the time. My point is that Polish people in Ireland (as a class, not specific individuals) did not display a visible decline after the housing bust.


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## CorkHome2022 (22 Dec 2022)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> My point is that PPSNs are an imperfect measure of inward migration as there are other reasons to receive one other than employment. There can also be different patterns of employment for example EU nationals are more likely to come and go for seasonal employment than people from countries where you need a solid job offer in advance. So more PPSNs issued (flow) for the same population (stock) at the Census. For these reasons I tell people that drawing firm inferences based on PPSN data is hazardous.
> 
> 
> People come and go all the time. My point is that Polish people in Ireland (as a class, not specific individuals) did not display a visible decline after the housing bust.


After the Crash in 09/10 the Irish that were coining it in the building game ie Trades etc have gone to Canada , Australia and found a much better lifestyle and will not return when income over the very modest lower tax bands is effectively 60% Tax , PRSI and USC . The country is also now loosing graduate nurses and teachers to foreign lands also as the public sector is not as appealing as it once was .


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## DannyBoyD (25 Dec 2022)

T McGibney said:


> How? It's not exactly cryptic.


Indeed.


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## Leo (28 Dec 2022)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> My point is that PPSNs are an imperfect measure of inward migration as there are other reasons to receive one other than employment.


I don't believe it's perfect either, but I think you know that the vast majority of numbers issues go to people residing in the country seeking employment or benefits of some nature. Inheritance is very much an edge case. 



NoRegretsCoyote said:


> My point is that Polish people in Ireland (as a class, not specific individuals) did not display a visible decline after the housing bust.


The original point was specifically around construction workers, most of whom had arrived after May 2004. How many of them remained in 2008?


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## Leo (28 Dec 2022)

CorkHome2022 said:


> The country is also now loosing graduate nurses and teachers to foreign lands also as the public sector is not as appealing as it once was .


There's nothing new in that, the majority return. In 2020 alone some 29k Irish nationals who had previously emigrated returned home. We've been running a net inward migration since 2015, so some graduates choosing to leave for a while or even permanently shouldn't be a significant problem, especially with the numbers leaving significantly down in the last 10 years.


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## Purple (3 Jan 2023)

Leo said:


> There's nothing new in that, the majority return. In 2020 alone some 29k Irish nationals who had previously emigrated returned home. We've been running a net inward migration since 2015, so some graduates choosing to leave for a while or even permanently shouldn't be a significant problem, especially with the numbers leaving significantly down in the last 10 years.


Going to work in countries in the Middle East which have close to slave labour and are extremely oppressive is akin to going to work in Apartheid era South Africa. It is a morally reprehensible thing to do.


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