# Why are posters so disinterested in the Great Financial Debates



## Panzraam (5 Mar 2007)

Since the closing of the "Current public sentiment towards the housing market?" thread three months ago the "The Great Financial Debates" forum has been pretty low on Great Debates. The "Current public sentiment" thread had +8,000 posts and +500,000 views. At a quick glance it is easy to see that in the last three months all of the other threads combined come nowhere close to the interest in the "Current public sentiment" thread. Nothing since seems to have caught the interest of AAMs readers/posters. Why do you think this is?​


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## rob30 (5 Mar 2007)

the are all on the property pin website. Most pessemistic bunch of people I have ever come across. there was some counter argument on the AAM site, but the bears are talking to themselves only on the property pin. Still an interesting read though.


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## paddyd (5 Mar 2007)

rob30 said:


> the are all on the property pin website. Most pessemistic bunch of people I have ever come across. there was some counter argument on the AAM site, but the bears are talking to themselves only on the property pin. Still an interesting read though.


 
ditto. Although I think most of the bears still post on both sites;  I mentioned that very point in a post here recently when the subject of Property Pin was brought up, (that I would find more balanced debate at a KuKuxKlan meeting), and was nearly eaten alive!
As you say, its an interesting read, and to be honest, I agree with a lot of what they say, except for the fasination with listing the houses that have dropped in price. 

I'm still amazed at the newspapers reluctance to give balanced reporting on the evidence (or not) of price drops in the housing market. I guess they are protecting the advertising revenue.
Even this weekend, that papers suggested that house prices actually rose by €500 or 0.1% !! hardly worth reporting! The interesting undercurrent of course, is that they cannot go any lower than 0.1%, i.e. next month they will be reporting that prices are increasing again; or that they are finally dropping.


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## room305 (5 Mar 2007)

rob30 said:


> the are all on the property pin website. Most pessemistic bunch of people I have ever come across. there was some counter argument on the AAM site, but the bears are talking to themselves only on the property pin. Still an interesting read though.



I had a look at the site but declined to get involved for precisely that reason. If everybody is in agreement where does the debate come from?

I am surprised that global economic issues don't attract more attention. The meltdown in subprime mortgage lending (and associated 'blame game') in the US is fascinating. At least 27 major lenders have imploded and almost all are in severe financial difficulty. Some are attached to very well known names (even GMAC is rumoured to be in trouble). The new Enron/Worldcom-type financial accounting scandals are already emerging and some incredibly predatory lending practices are being highlighted.

As a result of this mess the Federal Reserve is caught in a trap - lower rates to try and stall the slide in housing and further weaken the dollar or do nothing and watch the mess crumble. My guess is that is already too late but that won't stop them from acting.

Sorry, way off topic. I guess my point is that while the will it/won't it debate in relation to the Irish housing market is interesting, everything that needs to be said on the issue has already been said on this site. Only time will tell who was right.


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## plaudit (5 Mar 2007)

The closing of the property thread denyed me free speech, men have died to give us that right and it should be respected.


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## MugsGame (5 Mar 2007)

How does it deny you freedom of speech? There are plenty of sites where you can discuss such things. You can even setup your own site!


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## demoivre (5 Mar 2007)

plaudit said:


> The closing of the property thread denyed me free speech, men have died to give us that right and it should be respected.



That kind of drivel should qualify you for membership of The Property Pin forum. Why don't you take up Brendan's offer or do you just want to keep reading the same " price of XYZ reduced by 20 grand " type post for another 400 pages?


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## clon (5 Mar 2007)

the trouble with discussing something like the housing market is that almost everyone has a vested interest, and not just an economist that works for a bank, or even the media trying to protect ad revenue, but also those that say the market will crash.

One of the main arguments made by those saying the market will crash and burn is that if you defend part of the housing market then you must be linked to construction or the banks, but the same people normally have a vested interest because they haven't bought yet and think they will have to pay too much, so they often will actively want the market to fall, and they will go sniifing for reasons to back this up

Their is also an almost religious zeal about some of those that say the market will crash, as though they would like to see those that have done well over the last few years put back in there place.

I actually  think that  if the housing market stagnates for a few years, and if units of housing output contracted over the next few years it would be good news for the economy, and help wean the economy off construction.

 But it seems you must be a bear or a bull on the issue, and as with most messageboards the more extreme your views, the harsher your language the more likely you are to win the argument on the messageboard, that's why I like AAM's fairly  tight mod policy of keeping threads on topic, or civil at least.


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## ClubMan (5 Mar 2007)

plaudit said:


> The closing of the property thread denyed me free speech, men have died to give us that right and it should be respected.


I don't think that anybody actually died in creating _AAM_. A bit of me does every time I read stuff like this though.


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## conor_mc (5 Mar 2007)

demoivre said:


> That kind of drivel should qualify you for membership of The Property Pin forum. Why don't you take up Brendan's offer or do you just want to keep reading the same " price of XYZ reduced by 20 grand " type post for another 400 pages?


 
If you saw another 400 pages of price drops, would you believe that a crash was occurring?

To my mind, in the old sentiment thread, any debate was welcome. The problem was that the bears were able to produce statistics/reports which underlined the fragility of the property boom, along with comparisons with other boom/bust cycles in history. The bulls (and the majority of spin in the media) were very wishy-washy in their arguments. Broad stroke arguments like "the economy is still very strong" and "the growing population" were used without much thought as to the underlying reasons as to why the economy was strong (over-reliance on contruction) and why the population was growing (jobs in construction and/or service sector).

Anyway, to return to the original posters point - in my humble opinion, what is happening in the property market at present *is* currently the greatest financial debate in the country. It's probably the greatest financial issue that the country has ever faced. Stifling debate on an open forum does the issue, and AAM, a dis-service. I read the opinions of frequent posters like room305, demoivre and plaudit on many an issue and I find them to be educated and informed and so whether I agree or disagree with them, I'd have more time for their opinions than I do for Austin Hughes or Dan McLoughlin, that's for sure.


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## Duplex (5 Mar 2007)

I would love to debate the topic 'which dare not speak its name' and the broader economic issues surrounding it, on this board but I am unable to presently. On The Propertypin the discussion is open to all points of view. I would hope that people would have the good grace to acknowledge this; prior to dismissing the site out of hand.


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## plaudit (5 Mar 2007)

demoivre said:


> That kind of drivel should qualify you for membership of The Property Pin forum. Why don't you take up Brendan's offer or *do you just want to keep reading the same " price of XYZ reduced by 20 grand " type post for another 400 pages*?


 
Everybody knew what was in the thread, if  you didn't like it you didn't have to read it, obviously you did like it because you seem to be able to recall the content of the whole 400 pages.

People should have taken it with a grain of salt, ok a lot of it was a bit extreme, but some of the content was quite accurate.


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## sunrock (5 Mar 2007)

Its clear that  most peoples main financial concern is the price of property...not surprising since it is such a huge financial asset/s and most of peoples wealth is invested in or borrowed off housing.The fascinating thing is that it is delicately balanced...so much depends on housing prices ,not least employment.
Remove the property sentiment thread and people don`t bother to check the website,nevermind looking at other threads.
The problem is that people have been so indoctrinated with spin/lies from the banks/media/gov about the price of houses...basically that they only increase in value....that they are confused.They ,especially sellers want to believe the hype even if their heads tell them differently and who wants to hear bad news.Bears only want to hear that house prices are falling...presumably they are would be buyers.
Anyway posts in the great financial debates throw a lot of light on the working of the world economy.
Now with the correction in the stock market where is this excess liquidity that is sloshing around going to find a new home?


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## TTV (5 Mar 2007)

Good post , i agree and think people are dis-interested in posting in the GFD because the number one topic of debate is banned. Plain and simply, the topic is banned and alot of good posters were banned, all the banning doesnt promote good debate now does it?


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## beattie (5 Mar 2007)

It is a pity that AAM did ban it, I believe the biggest losers are AAM itself which is an excellent site which I have used for reading up on potential holiday destinations etc... The bulls give out about the Pin site but maybe they could setup their own site where everyone could have a look at and contribute to. Is there any out there at the moment?


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## conor_mc (5 Mar 2007)

Duplex said:


> I would love to debate the topic 'which dare not speak its name' and the broader economic issues surrounding it, on this board but I am unable to presently. On The Propertypin the discussion is open to all points of view. I would hope that people would have the good grace to acknowledge this; prior to dismissing the site out of hand.


 
To be fair, the Property Pin's stated aim is to "make a point at the top of the bubble" - in other words, it is bearish in outlook. That's well and good, but it isn't really very welcoming for bulls from the outset, and that's before you face the wrath of the community if you hold bullish views.

The good thing about the sentiment thread here on AAM was that it was a neutral venue - this website in itself does not overtly support one view or the other and was merely facilitating the debate. That the debate was one-sided is not the bear's fault - the lack of supporting evidence for the bullish view was telling imo.

Still, there is some good info published on the Property Pin which makes it worth a read, but some of the views of posters can be a little OTT for even my bearish outlook.


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## KalEl (5 Mar 2007)

It is a shame that debate/discussion on the housing market is banned. It's like an elephant in the corner of the room...the single biggest financial issue for most people and nobody is discussing it.
It did become farcical at times with bulls being verbally abused and the citing of individual property prices was pathetic and maybe even sinister. To my mind mentioning individual properties is a little too close to tipping individual shares in that it could manipulate the market.
But something has to be done to allow calm, rational and healthy debate about the housing market overall. I don't know how this can be done...limit it to frequent posters? Mentioning an individual property means a one day ban? Personal abuse means a one week ban? Maybe place a limit of one or two posts per day for all members?
It's a tricky one but the issue is just too big to ignore.


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## beattie (5 Mar 2007)

If there wasn't any publication of price drops the bulls would say (and probably justifiably so) that the bears were just naysayers etc. The publication of these drops was the first sign that things had changed as the problem with the PTSB/ESRI report is that the data they publish is out of date by the time they publish.


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## KalEl (5 Mar 2007)

beattie said:


> If there wasn't any publication of price drops the bulls would say (and probably justifiably so) that the bears were just naysayers etc. The publication of these drops was the first sign that things had changed as the problem with the PTSB/ESRI report is that the data they publish is out of date by the time they publish.


 
Without reigniting the debate here...and having this thread closed!

a) A specific does not prove a generality.

b) The owners of a property which has been essentially "slagged off" on AAM could take the matter further.

Discussion about individual properties was dangerous ground.


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## conor_mc (5 Mar 2007)

beattie said:


> If there wasn't any publication of price drops the bulls would say (and probably justifiably so) that the bears were just naysayers etc. The publication of these drops was the first sign that things had changed as the problem with the PTSB/ESRI report is that the data they publish is out of date by the time they publish.


 
In terms of a debate though, they are a little tedious. There are blogs out there which track the individual price changes so while I agree that asking-price drops qualify as a leading indicator of a turning market, I'd say that linking or referencing an appropriate blog would have been sufficient if you really needed to do so in order to support an argument.

It was the posts which only contained price drops and no debate/argument/opinion which brought things to a head.


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## Sunny (5 Mar 2007)

Why don't we debate the US housing market as a compromise instead. As mentioned above, it is pretty fascinating at the moment. And it has the potential to cause worldwide problems.


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## beattie (5 Mar 2007)

conor_mc said:


> In terms of a debate though, they are a little tedious. There are blogs out there which track the individual price changes so while I agree that asking-price drops qualify as a leading indicator of a turning market, I'd say that linking or referencing an appropriate blog would have been sufficient if you really needed to do so in order to support an argument.
> 
> It was the posts which only contained price drops and no debate/argument/opinion which brought things to a head.


 
I don't think that those blogs were there when they (the asking price drops) were first being published (I could be wrong about that but I was only using AAM for a complete HP debate so was not looking elsewhere at the time). 

Still if I had been a buyer I would have wanted to see them which would have given a more up to date feeling as to what was going on in the market instead of relying on out of date PTSB/ESRI reports


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## conor_mc (5 Mar 2007)

beattie said:


> I don't think that those blogs were there when they (the asking price drops) were first being published (I could be wrong about that but I was only using AAM for a complete HP debate so was not looking elsewhere at the time).
> 
> Still if I had been a buyer I would have wanted to see them which would have given a more up to date feeling as to what was going on in the market instead of relying on out of date PTSB/ESRI reports


 
Can't remember which one it was, but there was definitely at least one blog which sprung up out of the sentiment thread in order to keep the price drops in one place.

There is most definitely a place in the overall view of the market for this info - absolutely no argument from me on that one. However in the interests of making a thread interesting and readable, I personally found them to be more of a statto-attack than a debate.


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## Brendan Burgess (5 Mar 2007)

We have stated and discussed our policy on numerous occasions. 

We have asked on many occasions for someone to compile a balanced summary of the argments/evidence in favour of price rises and falls. No one has done that. 

This debate is closed. If someone provides the balanced summary, we will consider reopening the debate. 

Brendan
Administrator


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