# Brexit 2017



## Wahaay (12 Jan 2017)

So six months after the Brexit vote and the UK economy is confounding all expectations,including that of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney.
Indeed the governor now thinks Brexit could harm the EU more than it harms the UK.
Certainly the likes of Jean-Claude Druncker have toned down their aggressive posturing,presumably after Merkel had a quiet word in their shell-like.
It is worth pointing out that after Germany the UK's net contribution to the EU is greater than the other 26 countries combined.


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## Purple (12 Jan 2017)

Brexit hasn't happened yet though and the UK's debt levels are still very high.
I hope the current outlook remains though and the UK does remain strong as it is by far our biggest export market.


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## Duke of Marmalade (12 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> So six months after the Brexit vote and the UK economy is confounding all expectations,including that of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney.
> Indeed the governor now thinks Brexit could harm the EU more than it harms the UK.
> Certainly the likes of Jean-Claude Druncker have toned down their aggressive posturing,presumably after Merkel had a quiet word in their shell-like.
> It is worth pointing out that after Germany the UK's net contribution to the EU is greater than the other 26 countries combined.


Welcome _Nige_, bad luck not getting that vacancy of ambassador to the EU

So for a few facts;


			
				Wiki said:
			
		

> Net contribution to EU budget in 2016 Germany 9.5bn, France 5.9bn, UK 4.9bn, Italy 4.4bn


  Of course your post-truth assertion is possibly correct in the same way that I, and persumably yourself, am able to say that my net contribution to the Irish budget is greater than the rest of ye put together.

I'm no economics expert but if you told me that my currency would be devalued by 20% immediately because of long term fears for the economy but that absolutely nothing else would change in the short term (as _Purple_ says, still in the EU) I would reckon on a short term mega bounce; actually the reality is surprisingly muted.

Possibly Brexit will be worse for the EU than Britain, hardly an endorsement in itself.  But the effects on 400m people will be proportionatey much less than the effects on 50m (excluding Scotland and NI here).


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## Wahaay (12 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Welcome _Nige_, bad luck not getting that vacancy of ambassador to the EU
> 
> So for a few facts;
> Of course your post-truth assertion is possibly correct in the same way that I, and persumably yourself, am able to say that my net contribution to the Irish budget is greater than the rest of ye put together.
> ...



https://i1.wp.com/order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/eu-£250-miillion.png?w=540&ssl=1
I use the European Commission as the source for my figures.Add up the debits and credits of every member state from France to Poland bar Germany and it comes to a figure less than Britain’s EU contribution. 
As you say,you are no economics expert so I think I'll put my trust in the Governor of the Bank of England if you don't mind,even if he did allow himself to be swayed by Project Fear during the Referendum campaign.
As for Sterling it's now at levels that the IMF recommended it should be at some 18 months before the Referendum - exporters love it and so does the FTSE which is good news for millions of people whose pensions and savings are tied up in stocks and shares.
Oh,and the economy is booming and manufacturing is outstripping expectations as the UK economy becomes the fastest growing in the G7.
Should Ireland really pin its hopes on being looked after benevolently by the EU - as Phil Hogan recommends and we've seen how well that went in the past - or should the government be waking up to the fact that its fortunes are inextricably linked with its nearest neighbour and using this accordingly to get a decent re-negotiation of the bail-out terms ?


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## Duke of Marmalade (12 Jan 2017)

_Wahaay  _there are lies, damned lies, statistics and post-truths (do you like that?)

As with all post truths, the ones you cite whilst technically true are meaningless but seem to convey great meaning.  Two big deficiencies in your presentations of the figures.

Your statement that the UK made net contributions greater than all the rest combined excluding Germany but including for example Poland is true of almost every other counry barring Poland, just as my net contribution to the Irish budget is greater than the whole of the rest of Ireland combined.  My economics may not be great but I can do basic sums.

But let us consider only those countries that made positive net contributions - FR, NL, IT, SE, AT, DK and FI.  Possibly the UK paid more than all these combined.  Not by a long shot.

Now for the big post porkie.  The UK get 66% of their Net Contribution rebated under Maggie's deal. Why do you conveniently ignore that? The UK had (and have) a marvellous deal in the EU.  Practically every expert agreed that Brexit would not not be good economically for Britain.  I still belong to the old school that believes that experts generally know more about these things than me and 2% GDP growth in sterling terms for 2016 after a 20% devaluation does nothing to convince me that the experts got it wrong.  Nor do the musings of a civil servant who likes to say those things that please his current masters.


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## Leo (12 Jan 2017)

The bigger picture also needs to be factored into the overall cost/ benefit analysis. Exchequer figures look good now, boosted by a sharp rise in exports since the devaluation.

EU funding has significantly boosted economies (including our own) to the point where these economies now consume more UK goods and services, all resulting in increased revenue. Access to the market has allowed UK business to flourish, look at the big London financials for example and look at how many of them are now considering or even executing exit or reduction plans. 

What has happened to inward investment flows since the vote? After Brexit? What will happen UK businesses when they lose access to low cost staff? 

What about the secret deal with Nissan the keep production in Sunderland? What is that costing the UK government, even in advance of Brexit?

I think it's still way too early to call winners and losers before the negotiations have even begun.


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## Wahaay (12 Jan 2017)

I agree it's far too early to know the outcome which is why all those catastrophic predictions about the UK's economy,some of which are still being made,were so wide of the mark.
Interestingly opinion polls,for what they're worth,show virtually no change in public attitudes to Brexit.Buyer's remorse simply hasn't happened.
Likewise all this talk about Prime Minister May not having a clue about Brexit is laughable.Every government department has been undertaking a massive review of how Brexit is like to affect every aspect of British life.These things take a huge amount of time as does setting up the Brexit government department and the myriad of trade negotiators who will be involved in the discussions.
But a hard Brexit has always looked likely in my view.Without FOM membership of the single market is impossible.


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## Firefly (12 Jan 2017)

Leo said:


> The bigger picture also needs to be factored into the overall cost/ benefit analysis. Exchequer figures look good now, boosted by a sharp rise in exports since the devaluation.



I agree and if there are any trade tariffs imposed on UK imports into the EU post Brexit, then I would expect those rosy export figures to fall off..


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## Wahaay (12 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> I agree and if there are any trade tariffs imposed on UK imports into the EU post Brexit, then I would expect those rosy export figures to fall off..



Tariffs work both ways,of course.
An extra 3-4% is not going to make that much difference and has already been factored in by the fall in sterling.
And then there are all the trade deals with the rest of the world that the UK will then be able to negotiate.
And the money saved by not funding the rest of the EU.


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## Deiseblue (12 Jan 2017)

Given the Tory party's inbred hubris allied to their historical distrust of all things European & Johnny Foreigner then surely it's hugely previous to predict how Brexit will impact the U.K. .

Give it a couple of years Wahaay & then get back to us.


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## Wahaay (12 Jan 2017)

Deiseblue said:


> Given the Tory party's inbred hubris allied to their historical distrust of all things European & Johnny Foreigner then surely it's hugely previous to predict how Brexit will impact the U.K. .
> 
> Give it a couple of years Wahaay & then get back to us.



If there was a historical distrust of Johnny Foreigner why have so many Irish economic migrants been welcomed so warmly into the UK ?
It's a lazy trope I'm afraid.


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## Deiseblue (12 Jan 2017)

The times of No Irish ,  no Blacks , no Dogs seem a distant memory alright however the massive rise in hate related crime post Brexit does not augur well for the future .
I'm afraid the little Englander syndrome is back and flourishing.


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

You'd be amazed at how many Irish people I know in the UK who voted for Brexit as well. ....


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## Deiseblue (13 Jan 2017)

Surely overshadowed by the amount of Irish people in the UK that voted against it ?
After all the only verifiable figure for Irish votes were the 56 % of people in Northern Ireland who voted against it & of course the 44% who were for it.


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## Firefly (13 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Tariffs work both ways,of course.
> An extra 3-4% is not going to make that much difference and has already been factored in by the fall in sterling.
> And then there are all the trade deals with the rest of the world that the UK will then be able to negotiate.
> And the money saved by not funding the rest of the EU.



Given the sudden drop in sterling I would have expected exports to rise in the short term. However, for any companies considering a significant investment, I would think they would now have to seriously consider locating within the EU..


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## Purple (13 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> If there was a historical distrust of Johnny Foreigner why have so many Irish economic migrants been welcomed so warmly into the UK ?
> It's a lazy trope I'm afraid.


Many locals don't realise we are a different country


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> Given the sudden drop in sterling I would have expected exports to rise in the short term. However, for any companies considering a significant investment, I would think they would now have to seriously consider locating within the EU..



You mean like the Japanese investing £32billion in chip-maker Arm Holdings,discount firm Poundland bought for £600m by a South African retailer,an American company purchasing the Odeon/UCI cinema chain for £920m,GSK investing £250m and many others including that giant Nissan investment and Snapchat making London its global base outside the USA citing the UK's strong creative industry.

Some companies,particularly financial services,could leave but so far it has all been could-bes and planning-tos.

The Remoaners are holding out hope for a crash and the UK changing its mind by the million but it hasn't materialised yet.


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

Deiseblue said:


> Surely overshadowed by the amount of Irish people in the UK that voted against it ?
> After all the only verifiable figure for Irish votes were the 56 % of people in Northern Ireland who voted against it & of course the 44% who were for it.



That's still an awful lot of Irish Little Englanders


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## Leo (13 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Tariffs work both ways,of course.
> An extra 3-4% is not going to make that much difference and has already been factored in by the fall in sterling.



We haven't seen the longer term impact of the effective 20% rise in the cost of imports yet, these take time to filter through the system. Given the significant trade deficit with the EU, that will cause significant pain even without any tariffs.


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## Leo (13 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> You mean like the Japanese investing £32billion in chip-maker Arm Holdings



It was £24.3 billion, and more importantly, they didn't invest, they bought it out taking advantage of the currency devaluation. They made 5 year commitments in terms of workforce numbers and the company HQ remaining in the UK, but what happens after that? Even immediately SoftBank are now free to move ARM's IP & lisencing revenue where ever they like. 



Wahaay said:


> ...that giant Nissan investment



That wasn't really a giant investment though, it's the standard the re-tooling costs for the existing Sunderland plant to set them up for production of the next gen Qashqai and X-Trail models.  Staffing levels will remain unchanged, and they only agreed after the UK government agreed to absorb all levies imposed on their exports, which could be up to 10% if they fail to agree trade deals as is looking increasingly likely. Those same assurances are being given to other UK manufactures who export ~80% of total production. Could be expensive.


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

Leo said:


> It was £24.3 billion, and more importantly, they didn't invest, they bought it out taking advantage of the currency devaluation. They made 5 year commitments in terms of workforce numbers and the company HQ remaining in the UK, but what happens after that? Even immediately SoftBank are now free to move ARM's IP & lisencing revenue where ever they like.
> 
> 
> 
> That wasn't really a giant investment though, it's the standard the re-tooling costs for the existing Sunderland plant to set them up for production of the next gen Qashqai and X-Trail models.  Staffing levels will remain unchanged, and they only agreed after the UK government agreed to absorb all levies imposed on their exports, which could be up to 10% if they fail to agree trade deals as is looking increasingly likely. Those same assurances are being given to other UK manufactures who export ~80% of total production. Could be expensive.



My bad for getting the Arm takeover figure wrong but the rest of your post is hilarious.
In both those cases if the investment hadn't happened you would be declaring that as evidence the Brexit vote is harming the UK.
All the economic data so far has confounded every single warning of doom issued before the vote.

http://news.sky.com/story/business-investment-helps-uk-growth-stay-firm-after-brexit-vote-10671206


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## Leo (13 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> My bad for getting the Arm takeover figure wrong but the rest of your post is hilarious.



Classifying the ARM takeover and Nissan agreeing to continue to pay upkeep expenses on their existing plant as major investments endorsing  the UK economy is laughable. How many of ARM's shareholders were UK based? Much of that takeover money will never make its way to the UK economy. I doubt there are too many remain campaigners that are too happy about the gem of the UK technology industry falling into foreign ownership. There's a lot of unrest also about what the car maker deals will cost in the long term. 



Wahaay said:


> In both those cases if the investment hadn't happened you would be declaring that as evidence the Brexit vote is harming the UK.



I didn't say them happening was evidence of harm occurring...


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## Gerry Canning (13 Jan 2017)

The real Fallout of Brexit for all countries cannot be quantified yet.
 All This waffle that the Uk hasn,t collapsed and is still doing well means Brexit hasn,t been applied yet, nor is Brexits good/bad outcome known
.
I suggest Uk is turning inwards and that is not good. If Brexit turns sour , as it may well do , it ends up as a (protectionistic ) leaning race twix Europe and Uk.

We are still in (phoney) war phase .
I just cannot see UK having the knowledge or corporate skill to break from Eu in any way that the Exiteers seem to require.
I just cannot see EU being seen to (roll) over on Uk demands.

The talk of Quotas/Tariffs is not a simple matter .
eg . If UK ends up in hard Brexit, they end up in  WTO (world trade organisation) rules, but WTO  have exemptions etc, that are not simple.
Most products  are made up of a multiplicity of imported parts from different jurisdictions, , so the Uk has to get separate leeway /charges etc on each part , whilst ensuring each leeway/charge is not tramping on the toes of another country.
Given the World wide nature of supply chain of goods , it seems to me Brexit ain,t a smart move for any of us !.


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## Duke of Marmalade (13 Jan 2017)

Deiseblue said:


> Surely overshadowed by the amount of Irish people in the UK that voted against it ?
> After all the only verifiable figure for Irish votes were the 56 % of people in Northern Ireland who voted against it & of course the 44% who were for it.


Very true and since this is about ethnicity note that the great bulk of that 44% were Stottish planters.


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

Leo said:


> Classifying the ARM takeover and Nissan agreeing to continue to pay upkeep expenses on their existing plant as major investments endorsing  the UK economy is laughable. How many of ARM's shareholders were UK based? Much of that takeover money will never make its way to the UK economy. I doubt there are too many remain campaigners that are too happy about the gem of the UK technology industry falling into foreign ownership. There's a lot of unrest also about what the car maker deals will cost in the long term.
> 
> 
> 
> I didn't say them happening was evidence of harm occurring...




A lot of unrest from who ?
A government secures the long-term future of a major car manufacturer and thousands of jobs and you think they should be criticised ?
And if they didn't secure it they'd also be criticised ?
This encapsulates the sheer banality of UK Remoaners unwilling to accept the Referendum result.


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

Gerry Canning said:


> The real Fallout of Brexit for all countries cannot be quantified yet.
> All This waffle that the Uk hasn,t collapsed and is still doing well means Brexit hasn,t been applied yet, nor is Brexits good/bad outcome known
> .
> I suggest Uk is turning inwards and that is not good. If Brexit turns sour , as it may well do , it ends up as a (protectionistic ) leaning race twix Europe and Uk.
> ...




It's a smart move for the UK.As for Ireland this country lost any credibility and influence in Europe the day it accepted the bailout.Actually,it happened even before that with the second Lisbon Treaty vote when the country was threatened into changing its mind by a strutting martinet from France.


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## Purple (13 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> It's a smart move for the UK.As for Ireland this country lost any credibility and influence in Europe the day it accepted the bailout.Actually,it happened even before that with the second Lisbon Treaty vote when the country was threatened into changing its mind by a strutting martinet from France.


I agree that we have no credibility with the EU but that doesn't matter one way or the other when it comes to whether Brexit will turn out to be a good idea economically for the UK.
It will almost certainly be an economic disaster for Northern Ireland.


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## Gerry Canning (13 Jan 2017)

Smart move ? 

Forget about {martinets}{Lisbon} .You may well have a point in both these propositions .

The reason to forget past issues is to look @ things today, not what we maybe should have done.
UK risks having to work (negativelyish) with the rest of us.
The World has got much more interlinked this last decade , so those that wish to (protect) their own interests eg Uk and maybe in America with Mr Trump, need to be very aware of unintended consequences for them & us, and I fear Uk brexiteers may be away on a ill thought out policy..

Since 1973 , when these Islands joined the EU , living standards have improved a lot. Good strong social legislation has been negotiated through.

On leaving UK risks a lot  and I have seen little in the way of hard facts that leaving will improve matters for any of us.

I fear UK wants to trumpet (forgive the pun) to make Britain Great , without realizing what pluses being in Europe means ?


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

Gerry Canning said:


> Smart move ?
> 
> Forget about {martinets}{Lisbon} .You may well have a point in both these propositions .
> 
> ...



Let's put aside for a moment the idea that the whole European project is in crisis, from a trade point of view Europe has been the worst performing continent on the planet for some time now.
As a country with the 5 or 6th strongest GDP in the world and an economy which is currently performing better than any other in the G7 Brexit will enable the UK to strike trade deals that otherwise would never happen if it remained in the EU.
Trade aside,it would also have control of its borders.
Ireland is extremely lucky not to have communities straining under the burden of a massive influx of immigrants putting pressure on schools,housing and local services.
They are all over the UK particularly in the North which is why so many of the traditional Labour constituencies there voted Leave.
And it's not a question of being a Little Englander.These communities have welcomed immigrants since the 1960s.
And try telling them Brexit will be bad for their pocket.For many of them it can't get any worse.


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## Leo (13 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> A lot of unrest from who ?



Opposition parties and commentators on both sides of the Brexit debate. It's well covered in the UK media.



Wahaay said:


> A government secures the long-term future of a major car manufacturer and thousands of jobs and you think they should be criticised ?



Well, it's a 5-10 year term at most before re-tooling is required again. You're the one who seemed to be suggesting this was a 'giant investment' that somehow vindicated the decision and the health of the post-referendum economy. I never said they should be criticised.  



Wahaay said:


> This encapsulates the sheer banality of UK Remoaners unwilling to accept the Referendum result.



I've no interest in Brexit being a failure, I've a lot of friends and family living in the UK, travel there several times each year and have lived there for a number of years. But I do find it fascinating that a certain core of those who defend Brexit refuse to engage and examine the potential downsides instead choosing to bury their heads in the sand and assume that the UK will get all they ask for and more in complex negotiations with multiple international parties that have yet to even start officially. What's even funnier is when those who deny any potential for a downside attack those who were anti-Brexit who now refuse to accept any potential upside.


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## Duke of Marmalade (13 Jan 2017)

_Nige_ I refer to your OP.  I must admit I was initially taken aback by the claim that the "UK made net contributions *greater than all the rest put together* excluding Germany" or words to that effect.  But on second thoughts it occurred to me that this was completely vacuous (true of course, I would never accuse anyone of lying, but devoid of any meaning).  I have now checked using 2014 official figures and this assertion can be made of every single member state, including Ireland, except Poland.

I can think of a few reasons why you might have included this in your OP:

1.  You yourself are truly impressed by it, not realising its mathematical triviality.
2.  You knew how meaningless it was but thought to pull a post-truth on unwary AAM listeners.  You didnt bargain for the Duke
3.  You are a troll.

Care to enlighten which of these is closest the truth or to give any other explanation?


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> _Nige_ I refer to your OP.  I must admit I was initially taken aback by the claim that the "UK made net contributions *greater than all the rest put together* excluding Germany" or words to that effect.  But on second thoughts it occurred to me that this was completely vacuous (true of course, I would never accuse anyone of lying, but devoid of any meaning).  I have now checked using 2014 official figures and this assertion can be made of every single member state, including Ireland, except Poland.
> 
> I can think of a few reasons why you might have included this in your OP:
> 
> ...



Let me put it another way.
After Brexit the EU will lose its second biggest contributor.12 billion big ones a year out of their budget.
You can see why they're unhappy.
And AAM listeners ? I didn't realise this website was a radio station.
Pip pip !


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## Duke of Marmalade (13 Jan 2017)

_Nige_ please drop the post-truths, vulnerable folk are listening  After the rebate the UK pay net c. €4bn to the EU budget, almost a quarter of Germany's net contribution, well behind France and tying joint 3/4/5 with the Netherlands and Italy.

Yes, the rest of the EU are upset and from that upset we will see two developments.  The first good development is already visible.  Opinion polls on continental Europe suddenly reversed the trend and became more pro EU and more pro Euro as a sort of fingers to the arrogant Brits; I believe that Brexit has stopped the populist march on the continent (we will soon see).  In fact, a worst outcome would have been a Remain win for then the pressure to hold referendums in other countries would be immense and we could see much worse disasters such as Frexit or even Gexit.  The ill conceived Brexit referendum has given referendums a bad name and other than the recurring ref on abortion in these parts, we will see much less of that nonsense in future.

The second development is not so good.  The upset felt by the other members at being spurned will translate into a very acrimonious divorce.  The likes of the big girls such as Germany and France might be prepared to humour the Brits, after all they have been doing so ever since Maggie.  But the likes of Poland who take the Brexit vote as a personal insult will not be nearly so indulgent.  And remember all 27 have a veto.

The Brits better get on their bikes quick preparing to sell pre packed steak and kidney pud to Indians.


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> _Nige_ please drop the post-truths, vulnerable folk are listening  After the rebate the UK pay net c. €4bn to the EU budget, almost a quarter of Germany's net contribution, well behind France and tying joint 3/4/5 with the Netherlands and Italy.
> 
> Yes, the rest of the EU are upset and from that upset we will see two developments.  The first good development is already visible.  Opinion polls on continental Europe suddenly reversed the trend and became more pro EU and more pro Euro as a sort of fingers to the arrogant Brits; I believe that Brexit has stopped the populist march on the continent (we will soon see).  In fact, a worst outcome would have been a Remain win for then the pressure to hold referendums in other countries would be immense and we could see much worse disasters such as Frexit or even Gexit.  The ill conceived Brexit referendum has given referendums a bad name and other than the recurring ref on abortion in these parts, we will see much less of that nonsense in future.
> 
> ...




It is ironic that having celebrated 2016 as the anniversary of Ireland starting to become an independent nation free to pursue its own governance from outsiders the British who voted to do the same in a democratic mandate should be accused of being arrogant.
Don't you think ?
It's bikes by the way.


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

Leo said:


> Opposition parties and commentators on both sides of the Brexit debate. It's well covered in the UK media.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




The problem,of course,is that no-one knows what is likely to happen to either the UK,EU or world economy in five years or even two years time.
Expert predictions in the economy and political polling has proved to be woefully inadequate.
What is fairly predictable is the EU shows no signs of wishing to reform itself,freedom of movement as a concept is fatally flawed and large parts of Southern Europe show no signs of recovering from the economic distress caused by fundamental flaws in how the EU is run.
I can see why Ireland has options open.But for an economy the size of the UKs it's a different matter.


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## Duke of Marmalade (13 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> It is ironic that having celebrated 2016 as the anniversary of Ireland starting to become an independent nation free to pursue its own governance from outsiders the British who voted to do the same in a democratic mandate should be accused of being arrogant.
> Don't you think ?
> It's bikes by the way.


Spelling corrected, thanks.  But you gave me an idea, selling bikes to Indians may indeed be a viable future for the Brits

More seriously though,  the Brexit vote is seen as arrogant.  It is not the arrogance of the working class folk of Sunderland or Newcastle.  It is the stick in craw arrogance of the British print media and sections of the Tory party who have always believed that wogs begin at Calais.  They just can't accept paying third fiddle to Germany who they trounced both in 1945 and 1966 and to France whom they saved from said Germans.  I am not saying I don't sympathise with them, I too would have been wondering where it all went wrong as by the 60s these losers of WWII (throw in italy as well) were winning the peace and all because of that damn common market.


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Spelling corrected, thanks.  But you gave me an idea, selling bikes to Indians may indeed be a viable future for the Brits
> 
> More seriously though,  the Brexit vote is seen as arrogant.  It is not the arrogance of the working class folk of Sunderland or Newcastle.  It is the stick in craw arrogance of the British print media and sections of the Tory party who have always believed that wogs begin at Calais.  They just can't accept paying third fiddle to Germany who they trounced both in 1945 and 1966 and to France whom they saved from said Germans.  I am not saying I don't sympathise with them, I too would have been wondering where it all went wrong as by the 60s these losers of WWII (throw in italy as well) were winning the peace and all because of that damn common market.




Apart from recognising your extensive use of cliches I'm afraid you're wrong in almost every aspect.
The British respect the Germans for their work ethic,professionalism and penalty-taking.The Germans respect our business acumen and entrepreneurship.It's why they sell more cars to us than any other country in Europe.
We both,however, feel sympathy and a degree of pity for those countries unable to mange their own economic affairs to such an extent that others have to come in and do it for them.
If you catch my drift.


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## cremeegg (13 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> It is worth pointing out that after Germany the UK's net contribution to the EU is greater than the other 26 countries combined.



Did you realise how misleading this is when you posted it, if so you should apologise to those of us who post here to the best of our knowledge or understanding.

If you did not know how misleading is then you should thank the poster who pointed it out before apologising to the rest of us..


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## jjm (13 Jan 2017)

Brexit before it happens is costing Ireland over half a billion euro in 2016 because we were not able to pass on loss between Euro and Sterling.  Irelands wages Around 21 Euro per hr UK wages around 15 Euro, The UK have done a good Job of holding there cost base over last few years .Gap is going to increase again in 2017 .Ireland will not be able to Manage the fall out from  Brexit like the UK will,


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## Wahaay (13 Jan 2017)

cremeegg said:


> Did you realise how misleading this is when you posted it, if so you should apologise to those of us who post here to the best of our knowledge or understanding.
> 
> If you did not know how misleading is then you should thank the poster who pointed it out before apologising to the rest of us..



Apologise for what ?
It's a simple statement of fact that if you add up the debits and credits of every member state from France to Poland bar Germany it comes to a figure less than Britain’s EU contribution.
Excluding Germany, Britain’s contribution is more than the total net contribution of the 26 other EU states combined.
And that's not including the Loans to Ireland Act 2010 that allowed for a bilateral loan of £3.2 billion to this country, along with a low interest rate that was further cut in July 2011 and later in June 2012.
Arrogant Brits ? I don't recall anyone else in Europe stepping forward during Ireland's time of need.


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## Duke of Marmalade (13 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Apologise for what ?
> It's a simple statement of fact that if you add up the debits and credits of every member state from France to Poland bar Germany it comes to a figure less than Britain’s EU contribution.


That is true for every member state bar Poland. No one disputed these facts. Why can't you admit it is a post-truth and apologise?


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## cremeegg (14 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Apologise for what ?



For attempting, (deliberately or not) to mislead.

It is clear that you and the Duke have looked at the same facts. You have presented them in a highly skewed form which seeks to show the UK contribution to the EU budget as excessive by comparison with other countries.

Readers do not have time to check the context of everything written here. Usually we can rely on posters to present their knowledge in a fair and even handed manner, at least to the best of their ability.

Thanks to the Duke for correcting the misleading impression you created.


----------



## Wahaay (14 Jan 2017)

cremeegg said:


> For attempting, (deliberately or not) to mislead.
> 
> It is clear that you and the Duke have looked at the same facts. You have presented them in a highly skewed form which seeks to show the UK contribution to the EU budget as excessive by comparison with other countries.
> 
> ...




Nonsense.
The UK is the second-biggest Net contributor to the EU budget after Germany.The amount Ireland contributes hardly pays for Jean-Claude Druncker's after-dinner mints.
To suggest both are equal is spurious.
It's why the EU was so desperate for a Remain vote.Let's see how the other 27 nations make up the shortfall after Brexit.They could start with a proper audit of its accounts which haven't been signed off for over two decades.


----------



## cremeegg (14 Jan 2017)

You are in a hole. stop digging.

Duke caught you out, in an attempt to mislead.

Man up and admit it.


----------



## Wahaay (14 Jan 2017)

cremeegg said:


> You are in a hole. stop digging.
> 
> Duke caught you out, in an attempt to mislead.
> 
> Man up and admit it.



The figures speak for themselves.You're welcome to disprove this.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (14 Jan 2017)

My Mama warned me about trolls.  What makes me suspect that I am getting a right royal trolling here.  It would help assuage my fears if OP was changed to read:

_"It is worth pointing out that after Germany the UK's net contribution to the EU is greater than the other 26 countries."_

All I have done is dropped the word "combined".  Is that too much to ask?

Whilst that *is* worth pointing out, I will give OP the benefit of the doubt that she was unaware that the net contribution to the *budget* does not translate to *payment*.  Thanks to Maggie the UK get a 66% rebate which brings them way below France and, as near as makes no difference, in a tie for 3/4/5 with the Netherlands and Italy.  Hey, I'm repeating myself but some listeners appear to be a trifle deaf. The Leave campaign dismissed the rebate on the basis that it was not guaranteed, as if their recipe is laced with certainty.

_Wahaay_ I don't know who suggested to you that Ireland and the UK are equal in this respect but you should have spotted her immediately as a troll and you should not have repeated that "spurious" suggestion in this forum which attempts to address these issues seriously. BTW from your own stats you should have been assured that Ireland's net contribution paid for nobody's after dinner mints - it was negative

Why trouble yourself with how the Rest will make up that €4bn shortfall, a whopping 20c per head per week.  Think of the bright side, how the Brits will spend all that lolly.  The Leave campaign suggested that €30bn of that €4bn could be spent on the NHS (£50M per week, remember?).  So not only are Leave good at keeping the barbarians at the gate they do an impressive line in "loaves and fishes".  Not that the NHS could do with every cent (or penny) of it, given that the Red Cross have described the NHS as a humanitarian crisis and have been called in to help - the equivalent on the financial side of calling in the IMF.


----------



## Wahaay (14 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> My Mama warned me about trolls.  What makes me suspect that I am getting a right royal trolling here.  It would help assuage my fears if OP was changed to read:
> 
> _"It is worth pointing out that after Germany the UK's net contribution to the EU is greater than the other 26 countries."_
> 
> ...




Described as a " humanitarian crisis " after 485 people were recorded as waiting on hospital trolleys on one day in 2017 throughout the entire UK.

On January 3rd,Ireland with a population of around 7% of the UK,had 612 patients waiting on trolleys and on only one day since then have there been fewer than 485 people waiting on trolleys.

https://www.inmo.ie/trolley_ward_watch

Stats eh ? 
I know which country I'd rather get sick in - even one under pressure because the health service is free at the point of entry.
Perhaps Ireland could go to the Troika with a begging bowl for a reduction in the interest payments on all the money borrowed to keep the ATMs open.


----------



## cremeegg (14 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> The figures speak for themselves.You're welcome to disprove this.



Stop defending yourself against accusations that no one has made.

The simple fact is that you attempted to mislead readers about the size of the UK contribution to the EU budget relative to other countries. The Duke called you out on this and you cannot bring yourself to admit it.


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## Wahaay (14 Jan 2017)

cremeegg said:


> Stop defending yourself against accusations that no one has made.
> 
> The simple fact is that you attempted to mislead readers about the size of the UK contribution to the EU budget relative to other countries. The Duke called you out on this and you cannot bring yourself to admit it.



Admit what ?
My statement was factually correct.I even attached an official EU graph with it.
It's not my problem if you can't deal with facts.
Let's see how the other leading EU countries who actually bail out most of the rest appreciate having to find an extra £8.1billion.


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## Duke of Marmalade (14 Jan 2017)

_Wahaay_ can you answer a simple question?  I will even help with a multiple choice answer option.

*Q.  Why did you include the word "combined" in your OP?*  Without that word it is a very strong statement.  UK is uniquely ahead of 26 other countries.  With it included, it is a very weak statement.  The UK is but one of 26 countries, including Ireland, who could make the same claim.  You even included an official EU graph to demonstrate this point.  Why weaken your point so dramatically?

Multiple Choice Answers:

*A.*  I genuinely thought I was making a much stronger statement until a certain Duke pointed out my error.

*B.*  Of course I knew my point was vacuous, but it did sound so much more impressive,  I thought AAM folk would never spot it.

*C.*  I wanted to go easy in making the point.

*D.*  Other (please specify)


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## Dan Murray (14 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> The Leave campaign suggested that €30bn of that €4bn could be spent on the NHS (£50M per week, remember?).



I'm having trouble understanding these figures - can someone explain please?


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## Duke of Marmalade (14 Jan 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> I'm having trouble understanding these figures - can someone explain please?


This post has been subsequently deleted as I realised I had been caught by a particularly vicious variation of the Troll Gambit.  It's a warning to us all to be especially vigilant in these parts.


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## Dan Murray (14 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> £50M a week. (€30B p.a.)....



I'm still at a loss. You seem to be saying that £50m a week equates to £30b annually?


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## Duke of Marmalade (14 Jan 2017)

Post deleted (see above).  Drawing attention to what is little more than a typo adds zero to the discussion.  But just to clarify the situation, I should have referred to £50m *per day* or its equivalent €*20*b per annum.  It does not affect the substance of my contributions by one jot.


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## Wahaay (15 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> This post has been subsequently deleted as I realised I had been caught by a particularly vicious variation of the Troll Gambit.  It's a warning to us all to be especially vigilant in these parts.



That's two different posters in this thread you have accused of being trolls.
Bit of a pattern forming if you don't mind me saying so.
People should be entitled to their opinions.


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Jan 2017)

Lighten up _Nige_!  I'm sure even the _Duke_ makes howlers from time to time (though I don't actually recall one as big as yours).

You'll get over it in time, and maybe then you will satisfy our curiosity as to what made you make such an inane point.


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## Wahaay (15 Jan 2017)

I'll state it one more time in case you didn't understand it the first time.
If you add up the debits and credits of every member state bar Germany it comes to a figure less than Britain’s EU contribution.
Excluding Germany, Britain’s contribution is more than the total net contribution of the 26 other EU states combined.


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## Wahaay (15 Jan 2017)

The coming week will see some interesting developments on Bexit starting with Prime Minister May's much vaunted speech on Tuesday in which she's expected to make clear that Brexit means exit from the single market and customs union.As FOM was always her red line I wasn't in any doubt this was going to be the case.
But the Chancellor has also been on the offensive with an article in a German newspaper warning of the retaliatory action the UK could take if the EU decides to get tough.
All this,of course,is setting out the stall before A50 is invoked by March and signals to me that the government departments which have been involved in a huge research project since the Brexit vote to see how leaving the EU will impact on all areas of life have now come to their conclusions.
My one fear is that in Ireland we don't see to be hearing about much preparation going on behind the scenes for all possible outcomes although surely there must be some ?


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> I'll state it one more time in case you didn't understand it the first time.
> If you add up the debits and credits of every member state bar Germany it comes to a figure less than Britain’s EU contribution.
> Excluding Germany, Britain’s contribution is more than the total net contribution of the 26 other EU states combined.


I thought I made it quite clear that I understood it the first time.  I went further and pointed out that the same is true for all other member states except Poland.  AAM listeners may or may not find this an interesting trivia.  But I thought, perhaps mistakenly, that you were making the more substantive inference that Her Majesty's subjects were the victims of a particularly unique injustice.


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## Wahaay (15 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I thought I made it quite clear that I understood it the first time.  I went further and pointed out that the same is true for all other member states except Poland.  AAM listeners may or may not find this an interesting trivia.  But I thought, perhaps mistakenly, that you were making the more substantive inference that Her Majesty's subjects were the victims of a particularly unique injustice.



As Ireland was a net beneficiary in 2015 - the last recorded figures issued by the EU - I fail to see how Ireland's contributions amount to more than the other 26 states combined.It's why the EU is an abject disaster because countries are rewarded for failure,as you'll find out once Britain's contributions cease.


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Jan 2017)

Oh dear, we're having a problem with Junior Cert algebra.  Ireland were indeed a net receiver in 2015 : €40M in my figures.  But the other 26 combined were net receivers of c.€15,000M  - basically the divvie up of Germany's Net Contribution.  Actually, it is worth noting that the UK's Net Contribution was bigger than all of the other *27* countries combined *including* Germany. Same is true of any of the positive Net Contributors - basic algebra.

As to the dire consequences of Britain's exit for yours trully I have already started to put aside funds to compensate for my share of the lost lolly which I put at 20c per week.  It will mean some belt tightening but we Irish have come through worse, I think we will survive.


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## Wahaay (15 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Oh dear, we're having a problem with Junior Cert algebra.  Ireland were indeed a net receiver in 2015 : €40M in my figures.  But the other 26 combined were net receivers of c.€15,000M  - basically the divvie up of Germany's Net Contribution.  Actually, it is worth noting that the UK's Net Contribution was bigger than all of the other *27* countries combined *including* Germany. Same is true of any of the positive Net Contributors - basic algebra.
> 
> As to the dire consequences of Britain's exit for yours trully I have already started to put aside funds to compensate for my share of the lost lolly which I put at 20c per week.  It will mean some belt tightening but we Irish have come through worse, I think we will survive.



The reality is ,of course,that it doesn't cost every citizen of the EU 20c.
It costs those countries who are net contributors far more which is why Germans are beginning to tire of bailing out the Greek economy and UK citizens have come to see the unfairness of how much they contribute to a system they have little control over.
Sadly,as for most of its history,Ireland's fortunes rest in the hands of others.When Irish budgets are being discussed behind closed doors in Brussels before citizens of this country have had a chance to hear them really doesn't indicate there's much left of the independence that was earned so costly.


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## Dan Murray (15 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Lighten up _Nige_!



I find this a little ironic.


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## Wahaay (15 Jan 2017)

Careful.
You could trigger a troll alert ...


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Jan 2017)

I'd hate to spoil a beautiful friendship by asking _Dan_ to comment on your algebra, _Nige_.  But He is quite sharp on the sums, pointed out mistakes of my own; hard to believe isn't it?

_Dan_ the quality of a post is not measured by the amount of smilies, but hey, anything you can do I can do better

Stop it _Duke_ - you're trolling.


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## Dan Murray (15 Jan 2017)

My noble Lord,

How about I look at your Junior Cert English instead?



Duke of Marmalade said:


> Ireland were indeed....yours trully......



Those stones in glasshouses throw shouldn't. 

Ok - on a serious note, can someone send me a link to the official EU figures please? The link in post 4 seems to be from Bloomberg - I'm looking for a link to this data in an official EU site. In case the Duke gets an anxiety attack, I'd just like to understand the true figures in all of this.


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Jan 2017)

OMG  your pal has got me on a grammatical mistake.  I deeply apologise _Nige_ everything I said must have been in error.


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## Dan Murray (15 Jan 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> Ok - on a serious note, can someone send me a link to the official EU figures please? The link in post 4 seems to be from Bloomberg - I'm looking for a link to this data in an official EU site. In case the Duke gets an anxiety attack, I'd just like to understand the true figures in all of this.



I would appreciate it if somebody could provide this link please.


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## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> I would appreciate it if somebody could provide this link please.



Sorry Dan I don't have the time to hunt through the mountains of EU stats but I'd trust Bloomberg's graphic.
The  UK’s contribution to the EU was £2.7bn in 2008, rising to £3.8bn in 2009, £7.2bn in 2010, £7.5bn in 2011, £8.5bn in 2012 and £11.3bn in 2013.In other words it quadrupled in 5 years.The net figures take into account the UK’s rebate. 
Just one of the reasons behind the Brexit vote.


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## Duke of Marmalade (16 Jan 2017)

I am going to use these spreadsheets in the following

Select "Operating Budgetary Balance", 2013, "EUR Millions".  The situation regarding the Rebate is extremely confusing, most sites suggesting it is after the Budget calculations.  I think that these "official" figures are net of the Rebate. Nonetheless you will see a sharp difference between these  figures for 2013 showing the UK Net Contribution at €8.6B vs _Wahaay's_ figure above of £11.3B (c. €13B).  I think the Bloomberg exhibit for 2015 is after the rebate.

Now for a more interesting exhibit.  Change selection from "EUR Millions" to "% GNI".  You will notice that nobody, icluding the UK, pays more than 0.5% of their national income.  It is very hard to quantify the benefits of being in a Single Market of 500M people but most if not all economsts would put it a good bit higher than 0.5%.  The other fascintaing thing about this chart is that the "above the line" percentages are much higher i.e. the recipient countries get really meaningful injections, as we in Ireland know from past happy experience.  Of course these subsidies of the "developing" countries are not entirely altruistic.  The expectation is that as they get pulled up they will contribute to the greater benefit of all and hopefully the budgetary cross subsidies will lessen. If the UK has been paying more than its fair share of these cross subsidies it could find itself falling off the train just as it builds up cruising speed,  and that could be a hard fall indeed.

Now it does seem that Ms May will signal tomorrow exit from the Customs Union and the Single Market.  And really if control of immigration is a red line then there is no choice - Brexit means Brexit.  If control of immigration was on the table along with continued membership of the single market the UK would have bitten Brussels hand off for that, budget injustice notwithstanding.  It is really rather pathetic to hear arguments that leaving CU and SM is actually a chosen economic strategy to carve out much more lucrative markets at the other end of the globe.

The FX markets are buying none of that.  Sterling continues to suffer.  Nothing has actually changed yet regarding terms of trade, rather the depreciation is in anticipation of poor trade arrangements down the line.  One shudders to thing what sterling will be when the new trade arrangements are actually in place.

And no, none of this is good for Ireland.


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## jjm (16 Jan 2017)

WE may /Will end up buying more from the Uk after brexit. Same language.Add in lower costs/tax.British  firms provide the best services in the EU great at following up and always very helpful.They really know how to do business and look after there customers in Ireland.Always take the long term view. They will have no problem working any new trade arrangements and providing value to there Irish customers .I expect balance of trade to go the other way unless Ireland cuts it cost base I don't see this happening .Not good for Ireland our cost base will kill us once Uk leave.


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## Leo (16 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> WE may /Will end up buying more from the Uk after brexit.



What are you basing that on? Current numbers show the UK share of imports remaining steady at 26% over the past year (dropped from 30% in 2014) despite the significant price drop. If we're not spending more there when it's cheaper, how do you figure we 'may / will' end up buying more if levies are introduced? 



jjm2016 said:


> British  firms provide the best services in the EU great at following up and always very helpful. They really know how to do business and look after there customers in Ireland.Always take the long term view.



Again, what are you basing that on? In my limited experience the German's leave many UK businesses in the shade.


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## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> The British respect the Germans for their work ethic,professionalism and penalty-taking.The Germans respect our business acumen and entrepreneurship.It's why they sell more cars to us than any other country in Europe.
> _We both,however, feel sympathy and a degree of pity for those countries unable to mange their own economic affairs to such an extent that others have to come in and do it for them._


 
The 1976 IMF Crisis was a financial crisis in the United Kingdom in 1976 which forced the government to borrow $3.9 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),[1] the largest loan ever requested from the IMF.[2]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_IMF_Crisis


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## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> More seriously though,  the Brexit vote is seen as arrogant.  It is not the arrogance of the working class folk of Sunderland or Newcastle.  It is the stick in craw arrogance of the British print media and _sections of the Tory party_ who have always believed that wogs begin at Calais.


 
I was watching John Redmond last week on Newsnight (I think). Arrogance personified.


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

@Wahaay, I would be interesting in hearing why, if Brexit is a good thing, sterling has weakened so much?

An interesting definition from Investopia on weak currencies:

_A weak currency, whose value has depreciated significantly over time, is commonly found in nations with poor economic fundamentals, which may include a high rate of inflation, chronic current account and budget deficits, and sluggish economic growth. Nations with weak currencies usually have much higher levels of imports compared with their exports, resulting in more supply than demand for such currencies on international foreign exchange markets if they are freely traded currencies. While a temporary weak phase in a major currency provides a pricing advantage to its exporters, such a benefit seldom accrues to exporters in weak currency nations since other factors such as high input costs and bureaucratic red tape may offset this advantage._

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/weak-currency.asp


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## Duke of Marmalade (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> The Germans respect our business acumen and entrepreneurship.It's why they sell more cars to us than any other country in Europe.


Thanks _Firefly_ for pointing this one out to me.  For  a start it seems like a bit of a non sequitur, I doubt whether German's vet their customers for business acumen and entrepreneurship.

But let's consider the stat (presuming it is true)  to see if there are any gems of wisdom to be gleaned. The only contenders in terms of population for country of greatest German car exports are UK, France and Italy.  Maybe the UK win that dubious honour because French and Italians like their own manufactured cars.  As one who had the misfortune to once own a Rover I have great sympathy in their lack of patriotism when it comes to car purchase, buying foreign in this case certainly does display business acumen.  The Germans needn't worry, the Brits will still prefer Mercs to Rovers no matter what the tariff imposed.

_Wahaay_ folk are starting to gang up on you  Where is _Dan_ when you need him?


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## Purple (16 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Thanks _Firefly_ for pointing this one out to me.  For  a start it seems like a bit of a non sequitur, I doubt whether German's vet their customers for business acumen and entrepreneurship.
> 
> But let's consider the stat (presuming it is true)  to see if there are any gems of wisdom to be gleaned. The only contenders in terms of population for country of greatest German car exports are UK, France and Italy.  Maybe the UK win that dubious honour because French and Italians like their own manufactured cars.  As one who had the misfortune to once own a Rover I have great sympathy in their lack of patriotism when it comes to car purchase, buying foreign in this case certainly does display business acumen.  The Germans needn't worry, the Brits will still prefer Mercs to Rovers no matter what the tariff imposed.


There are no British car manufacturers.
There are lots of foreign companies making cars in the UK (Japanese, American, German and Indian etc.).


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (16 Jan 2017)

Nice one _Purple_.  However, when folk expressed worry that they might be buying a British "Monday morning car" I don't think they were expressing a fear that the Japanese owners had rather too much Sake at the week end.


----------



## Purple (16 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Nice one _Purple_.  However, when folk expressed worry that they might be buying a British "Monday morning car" I don't think they were expressing a fear that the Japanese owners had rather too much Sake at the week end.


What they need to realise is that the quality of the production line, i.e. the design, in-process quality checks, standard of the robots etc, is more important than the country the line is in or the nationality of the people running the line. To that end the German, Japanese and American designed and built lines are superior to those of the old British companies. The sector requires massive capital expenditure so it is no accident that Jaguar started producing vastly superior cars since they were bought by their current Indian owner (one of the biggest and oldest Engineering firms in the world) or that Mini has been such a success since it was bought by BMW.


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> There are no British car manufacturers.
> There are lots of foreign companies making cars in the UK (Japanese, American, German and Indian etc.).



Really ?
Ever heard of McClaren ? They win the occasional race here and there.
Globalisation means car companies all over the world are owned by foreign companies.
But in terms of what motor vehicles are actually manufactured in Britain you might be surprised.And now that sterling is back to a reasonable level it's one reason why the UK's exports are booming.
Which helps secure the jobs of some of those Irish people who have been forced to emigrate to the UK because their own government has failed them.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmcmqTAu6b8

Of course Ireland has an illustrious history of making things... perhaps someone on here could take a pen to the back of a postage stamp and furnish me with a list.
I'll start the ball rolling.
Clonakilty Pudding.


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> What they need to realise is that the quality of the production line, i.e. the design, in-process quality checks, standard of the robots etc, is more important than the country the line is in or the nationality of the people running the line.



If that's the case why are there no car production lines in Ireland ?
But you are right.
I suppose that's why Dell shipped their computer production line to Eastern Europe.


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> I was watching John Redmond last week on Newsnight (I think). Arrogance personified.



You probably mean John Redwood.
And it was on RTE's Prime Time.
Never mind.You got his first name right.
He has a very good blog.

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com


----------



## Ceist Beag (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> If that's the case why are there no car production lines in Ireland ?


Ehhh export costs might make that a hugely unattractive business to invest in! Wahaay there are none so blind as those who refuse to see but are you seriously listing McLaren as a car manufacturer? Have you popped down to your local McLaren dealer to enquire about trading in your Mini Cooper for the latest McLaren hatchback? You've made some bold statements on this thread, none of which tbh I can take credibly.
As others have already said, we here in this little island desperately want and need this exit to work well for the UK. It's in our best interest. But you need to take a step back from wainge the Union Jack here, it's way too early for either side to be claiming anything just yet.


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> You probably mean John Redwood.
> And it was on RTE's Prime Time.
> Never mind.You got his first name right.
> He has a very good blog.
> ...


 
Yip, that's the toff I was talking about.


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Ceist Beag said:


> Ehhh export costs might make that a hugely unattractive business to invest in! Wahaay there are none so blind as those who refuse to see but are you seriously listing McLaren as a car manufacturer? Have you popped down to your local McLaren dealer to enquire about trading in your Mini Cooper for the latest McLaren hatchback? You've made some bold statements on this thread, none of which tbh I can take credibly.
> As others have already said, we here in this little island desperately want and need this exit to work well for the UK. It's in our best interest. But you need to take a step back from wainge the Union Jack here, it's way too early for either side to be claiming anything just yet.



How are the export costs different from the UK ?  Both are islands off the mainland of Europe and both countries are in the single market and customs area.
If,as a previous poster maintains,it doesn't matter where you site your production line then Ireland with its much lower Corporation Tax,should be an obvious candidate.


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Of course Ireland has an illustrious history of making things... perhaps someone on here could take a pen to the back of a postage stamp and furnish me with a list.
> I'll start the ball rolling.
> Clonakilty Pudding.


 
We still don't have the moniker "_A nation of shopkeepers_" attached to us though!


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> Yip, that's the toff I was talking about.



Glad to be of help.
I do think if you're going to malign someone you should at least have the courtesy to get their name correct.


----------



## Purple (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Really ?
> Ever heard of McClaren ? They win the occasional race here and there.
> Globalisation means car companies all over the world are owned by foreign companies.
> But in terms of what motor vehicles are actually manufactured in Britain you might be surprised.And now that sterling is back to a reasonable level it's one reason why the UK's exports are booming.
> Which helps secure the jobs of some of those Irish people who have been forced to emigrate to the UK because their own government has failed them.


Per head of population there are more British people in Ireland than Irish people in Britain.



Wahaay said:


> Of course Ireland has an illustrious history of making things... perhaps someone on here could take a pen to the back of a postage stamp and furnish me with a list.
> I'll start the ball rolling.
> Clonakilty Pudding.


Pharma and Medical Devices.
Our per-capita manufacturing output is much higher than the UK's.


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> We still don't have the moniker "_A nation of shopkeepers_" attached to us though!



That's because many of your most popular shops are either British ( Debenhams,Tesco ) or German ( Aldi,Lidl ).


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> How are the export costs different from the UK ?  Both are islands off the mainland of Europe and both countries are in the single market and customs area.
> If,as a previous poster maintains,it doesn't matter where you site your production line then Ireland with its much lower Corporation Tax,should be an obvious candidate.


 
Cars are big, bulky and heavy and therefore more costly to export. Would it not therefore make sense to build them close to where most of them will be sold?


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Glad to be of help.
> I do think if you're going to malign someone you should at least have the courtesy to get their name correct.


 
Maybe if I thought of him as someone important or more importantly if I thought what he was saying was important I might have!


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## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> Per head of population there are more British people in Ireland than Irish people in Britain.



But how many British people are forced to emigrate due to economic necessity ?


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> Cars are big, bulky and heavy and therefore more costly to export. Would it not therefore make sense to build them close to where most of them will be sold?



But what about all the cars imported into Ireland ? Their manufacturers still have the same transport costs.


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> That's because many of your most popular shops are either British ( Debenhams,Tesco ) or German ( Aldi,Lidl ).


 
Interesting what the German supermarket are doing to the UK ones here (the Irish owned supermarkets are retaining market share).


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> But how many British people are forced to emigrate due to economic necessity ?


 
Maybe we'll see soon enough!


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> But what about all the cars imported into Ireland ? Their manufacturers still have the same transport costs.


 
It's a much smaller amount of cars moving across the water than would be moved if they were built here...


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> Maybe if I thought of him as someone important or more importantly if I thought what he was saying was important I might have!



Presumably the producers of Prime Time thought he was important enough to have an opinion ...


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Presumably the producers of Prime Time thought he was important enough to have an opinion ...


 
We're all about balance in this country so we are.


----------



## Purple (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> How are the export costs different from the UK ?  Both are islands off the mainland of Europe and both countries are in the single market and customs area.
> If,as a previous poster maintains,it doesn't matter where you site your production line then Ireland with its much lower Corporation Tax,should be an obvious candidate.


I agree that both are islands off the coast of the mainland but Britain is a far bigger country with a far bigger population and much shorter transport links to the mainland. It also has a great tradition of engineering and manufacturing and so the very costly infrastructure is in place to service heavier industries. I just don't think it's credible to suggest that it can get back to its 1950's place in the world. That ship has sailed and you can thank your Trade Unions for destroying your manufacturing sector. It's an utter shame that such a great heritage was squandered but to blame the EU is to look in the wrong place.


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Presumably the producers of Prime Time thought he was important enough to have an opinion ...


 

Any chance you'd reply to post #75 ?


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> Pharma and Medical Devices.
> Our per-capita manufacturing output is much higher than the UK's.



You forgot Guinness.
British owned of course.


----------



## Purple (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> But how many British people are forced to emigrate due to economic necessity ?


 Are you suggesting they come here because it's just nicer?
Lots of British people emigrated due to economic necessity. Look at the numbers who left Scotland and Northern Ireland and moved to England. It is a United Kingdom of 4 countries is it not?


----------



## Purple (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> But what about all the cars imported into Ireland ? Their manufacturers still have the same transport costs.


What's that got to do with the cost of manufacture?


----------



## Purple (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> You forgot Guinness.
> British owned of course.


Absolutely, and always has been. 
The product was developed and is manufacturer by Irish people though, unlike the cars that are made in the UK.


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> Any chance you'd reply to post #75 ?



Of course.
Shortly before the referendum the IMF said the pound was over-valued by between 5%-20%.
FX rates go up and down - I can remember when sterling was at virtual parity against the dollar and did rather well out of it.
There are pros and cons either way but as a sign of the health of an economy I'd rather look at manufacturing data than foreign exchange.


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> Absolutely, and always has been.
> The product was developed and is manufacturer by Irish people though, unlike the cars that are made in the UK.



Really ?
You don't think Rolls Royce was developed and manufactured by British people ?
You need to do a bit more Googling old sport.


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> Are you suggesting they come here because it's just nicer?
> Lots of British people emigrated due to economic necessity. Look at the numbers who left Scotland and Northern Ireland and moved to England. It is a United Kingdom of 4 countries is it not?



Who knows why British people emigrate here but I know of no British people who moved to Ireland because they couldn't find employment in the UK.


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Of course.
> Shortly before the referendum the IMF said the pound was over-valued by between 5%-20%.


 
You really think that the market put more weight on what the IMF said than the result of the referendum?


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> You really think that the market put more weight on what the IMF said than the result of the referendum?



No.
I'm merely saying that a reduction in the value of sterling is not necessarily a bad thing.
As I mentioned upthread the markets are volatile and no great indicator of an economy's strengths or weaknesses.
The economic data that has come out of the UK since Brexit has been largely positive but who can predict what will happened in
two years time.
Uncertainty over the future didn't worry those people who voted Leave sufficiently.Loss of sovereignty and high levels of immigration weighed far more heavily on their minds.


----------



## Firefly (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> No.
> I'm merely saying that a reduction in the value of sterling is not necessarily a bad thing.


 
That's not what I am asking. I am asking why you think the value of sterling has fallen by so much following the referendum? (The hint I would offer is that usually when something becomes less attractive its price falls..).


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> That's not what I am asking. I am asking why you think the value of sterling has fallen by so much following the referendum? (The hint I would offer is that usually when something becomes less attractive its price falls..).



But as you know sterling hasn't fallen _consistently _since Brexit.It has recovered some ground then fallen again.Much of this is volatility based on political events.
You don't seriously think market makers haven't already priced in a hard Brexit before a speech by May tomorrow which will indicate that is the likely outcome ? As May has repeatedly said FOM is non-negotiable that is the ONLY outcome.
Equally a string of the " wrong " election results in Europe could well see the Euro come under pressure again this summer.
Exchange rates go up and down like a whore's drawers and I really wouldn't worry too much about them.

http://news.sky.com/story/imf-upgra...xpected-growth-following-brexit-vote-10731194


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## Duke of Marmalade (16 Jan 2017)

I think _Nige_ has a point.  If it wasn't for the hard working Brits of Belfast where would the Titanic be today?The West Belfast version of this "joke" would not be suitable for AAM ears.


----------



## Deiseblue (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Who knows why British people emigrate here but I know of no British people who moved to Ireland because they couldn't find employment in the UK.



I certainly agree that the vast majority of British people who moved here are not in any sense economic immigrants.
The only conclusion that I can draw is that the approx 116,000 British people who have moved here have done so because they perceived our quality of life as being superior added to our much better social welfare provisions topped off by the notion that we are a far more chilled & friendly populace than our U.K. neighbours !
I extracted the figure of 116,000 above from a Eurostat 2015 survey which states that non nationals make up 11.8 % of our population whereas only 7.9 % of the UK 's population are non nationals  - hardly supports your conclusion that Ireland has far fewer immigrants than the U.K.


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Deiseblue said:


> I certainly agree that the vast majority of British people who moved here are not in any sense economic immigrants.
> The only conclusion that I can draw is that the approx 116,000 British people who have moved here have done so because they perceived our quality of life as being superior added to our much better social welfare provisions topped off by the notion that we are a far more chilled & friendly populace than our U.K. neighbours !
> I extracted the figure of 116,000 above from a Eurostat 2015 survey which states that non nationals make up 11.8 % of our population whereas only 7.9 % of the UK 's population are non nationals  - hardly supports your conclusion that Ireland has far fewer immigrants than the U.K.



Rather more worrying for Ireland is how many of the generation of 18-30s who have left the country will never return.
All those hundreds of thousands of Irish in recent decades who crossed the Irish Sea must find the quality of life agreeable in Blighty otherwise they would come home.
I mean,this country isn't permanently in economic crisis even though it feels like that.


----------



## Deiseblue (16 Jan 2017)

Ah but there is a difference , as you have correctly pointed out time and again the Irish who went to the UK went to seek work whereas those UK citizens who came the other way obviously came for the quality of life & better social welfare provisions - the quality of life obviously being the reason why Provence & large areas of coastal Spain have been colonised by British citizens who can no longer envisage living in the UK .
Any comment on the fact that this country has far more non nationals per capita than the U.K. Despite your claims to the contrary ?


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Deiseblue said:


> Ah but there is a difference , as you have correctly pointed out time and again the Irish who went to the UK went to seek work whereas those UK citizens who came the other way obviously came for the quality of life & better social welfare provisions - the quality of life obviously being the reason why Provence & large areas of coastal Spain have been colonised by British citizens who can no longer envisage living in the UK .
> Any comment on the fact that this country has far more non nationals per capita than the U.K. *Despite your claims to the contrary ?*




Exactly where did I claim this ?
While you're trying to find this non-existent post I would just point out that the most recent net migration figures - taking the number of people leaving the UK from the number entering - was 335,000 in the year leading up to June 2016.
Quality of life for a retired Brit or Irish person wanting some sun and cheap drink ( yup,there are plenty of those on the costas too ) is the same as quality of life for an unemployed labourer from Roscommon who heads for Irish Ferries across to the UK.


----------



## Deiseblue (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Let's put aside for a moment the idea that the whole European project is in crisis, from a trade point of view Europe has been the worst performing continent on the planet for some time now.
> As a country with the 5 or 6th strongest GDP in the world and an economy which is currently performing better than any other in the G7 Brexit will enable the UK to strike trade deals that otherwise would never happen if it remained in the EU.
> Trade aside,it would also have control of its borders.
> Ireland is extremely lucky not to have communities straining under the burden of a massive influx of immigrants putting pressure on schools,housing and local services.
> ...



Hope this answers your question .
" Ireland is extremely lucky not to have communities straining under the burden of a massive influx of immigrants "
Hardly ties in with the Eurostat figures which reflect the fact that a far greater percentage of our population is made up of non nationals compared to the UK does it ?
Non existent post - hardly , perhaps it's your short term memory that's faulty ?
In the interest of clarity I should state that I have no difficulties with such immigrants .


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (16 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> It's a simple statement of fact that if you add up the debits and credits of every member state from France to Poland bar Germany it comes to a figure less than Britain’s EU contribution.


Things have strayed a lot from OP but I am going to revert to that bone of mine as you have yet to give a satisfactory explanation. Why have you excluded Germany in this calculation?  The statement is true even if you include Germany however this exclusion suggests you had no concept of the point you were trying to make.  And as I have asserted on several occasions the statement is true of all countries except Poland. What point are you trying to make in making this trival observation?


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

Deiseblue said:


> Hope this answers your question .
> " Ireland is extremely lucky not to have communities straining under the burden of a massive influx of immigrants "
> Hardly ties in with the Eurostat figures which reflect the fact that a far greater percentage of our population is made up of non nationals compared to the UK does it ?
> Non existent post - hardly , perhaps it's your short term memory that's faulty ?
> In the interest of clarity I should state that I have no difficulties with such immigrants .



I think the expression is " Apologies for making a false claim against you. "
We agree then that I did not assert that the UK has more non-nationals per capita than Ireland.
What I did say is that certain areas of the UK - notably working class and predominantly in the North which is where the biggest Leave vote came from - have attracted most immigration and this has brought huge strain on local housing,hospitals and social services.
It has also meant that wages in these areas have been artificially depressed with immigrants willing to work for often below minimum wages.
It's not just me who is saying this but Labour MPs,many of them Remainers,who were told this on the doorstep while canvassing during the Referendum.
It's why Theresa May won't face serious opposition to her Brexit plans because Labour MPs in often marginal constituencies know they face electoral oblivion as a consequence.


----------



## Deiseblue (16 Jan 2017)

Stop digging , you stated unequivocally " Ireland is extremely lucky not to have communities straining under the burden of a massive influx of immigrants "
Our proportion of non nationals is far greater than the UK & as such there are a far greater amount of non nationals spread throughout our communities .
Your assertion above is therefore bogus.


----------



## Wahaay (16 Jan 2017)

You wrote:

" Any comment on the fact that this country has far more non nationals per capita than the U.K. *Despite your claims to the contrary ? "*

I did not claim that.

However Ireland is not immune from some of the problems immigrants face in the UK.

www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/reports-of-racist-incidents-in-ireland-are-on-the-rise-1.2750542


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## Duke of Marmalade (16 Jan 2017)

_Wahaay_ I  am still not sure that you are not a troll.  If you are you have achieved a measure of success in stretching this out to 7 pages.  Your refusal to either withdraw your OP whopper or to explain why you included it is further colloboratory evidence of trollatoriness.  As the creator of this thread you have a much higher responsibility than mere contributors like myself.  You are in honour bound to correct any gross misrepresentations in your OP and I know Brits are (wo)men of honour.


----------



## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> But as you know sterling hasn't fallen _consistently _since Brexit.It has recovered some ground then fallen again._Much of this is volatility based on political events_.



Would you care to back up this assertion please and provide examples of these political events you think were responsible for the fall in STG?



I offer the following articles on why the beloved Pound has weakened:

_Fears of the consequences of a hard Brexit have sent the pound to a fresh 31-year-low against the dollar, excluding last October’s flash crash._
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...xchange-theresa-may-hard-brexit-a7528866.html

_The expected triggering of Article 50 in the first quarter of 2017 is predicted to push down the value of sterling against a basket of major currencies, dragging it to a 32-year low against the dollar._
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...k-pound-article-50-marks-sterlings-final-dip/

_Sterling slid to a three-year low against the euro on Monday after prime minister Theresa May set a March deadline for the formal departure process from the EU to begin_
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...-to-new-three-year-low-against-euro-1.2814584

_Global bank HSBC has reiterated it expects sterling euro parity by the end of next year in a downbeat analysis, as the pound tipped above the 90 pence mark yesterday._


_British pound drops sharply after Theresa May announces UK will trigger EU exit in March, suggesting immigration not single market is the priority_
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/03/uk-stocks-rally-as-brexit-fears-fade

Edit: Just to add: of course a weaker currency has short term benefits such as helping with exports but imports become more expensive. If a weaker Pound was government policy then fair enough, but from what I see it was the market which decided the Pound was not as valuable and therefore its price dropped. Funny how cheap it is to buy Christmas decorations this time of year..

Firefly.


----------



## Purple (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Really ?
> You don't think Rolls Royce was developed and manufactured by British people ?
> You need to do a bit more Googling old sport.


The engine is designed and built in Germany. The drive train is from a 7-Series BMW and the entire engineering spec was done in Germany. The body shape and spec was done in England by a German-English design team. The production line was also designed by Germans. 
As I said the British, well English and Scottish, have a fantastic tradition and heritage in engineering and manufacturing. It is a tragedy that you have lost so much of it. You are still world class in Aerospace (the UK is the second biggest aerospace manufacturer in the world) but the Unions from the late 50's to the mid 80's destroyed most of it. Thatcher didn't help either. Even now that remains of your steel industry is being lost.


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Currencies will always fluctuate - that's what happens in a market place.
Sterling is currently at the rate the IMF suggested it should be at just before the Referendum.
It may go lower or it may go higher depending on external political factors as could any currency - another crisis in Greece,Le Pen being elected in France,the Far Right doing well in The Netherlands could all affect the euro substantially.
But fortunately brave politicians tend not to make policy based on predictions of what might happen at some stage in the future to currencies.
In the UK's case May is reacting to the democratic wish of the British people - sadly not something the Irish government is able to do,as evidenced by the second Lisbon Treaty vote.
On a purely practical point of view as Britain looks towards global trade expansion with new trade deals particularly in emerging markets a weaker pound is just what it needs.


----------



## Purple (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Who knows why British people emigrate here but I know of no British people who moved to Ireland because they couldn't find employment in the UK.


Let's not get into a discussion about why that was the case. I'm not a fan of the whole "800 years of oppression" BS or the simplistic anti-English historical narrative which such discussions inevitably descend into but there are legitimate historical reasons why Irish people (and Ireland as a whole) were so poor that they needed to immigrate and England had a large, but by no means exclusive, part to play in it.


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> The engine is designed and built in Germany. The drive train is from a 7-Series BMW and the entire engineering spec was done in Germany. The body shape and spec was done in England by a German-English design team. The production line was also designed by Germans.
> As I said the British, well English and Scottish, have a fantastic tradition and heritage in engineering and manufacturing. It is a tragedy that you have lost so much of it. You are still world class in Aerospace (the UK is the second biggest aerospace manufacturer in the world) but the Unions from the late 50's to the mid 80's destroyed most of it. Thatcher didn't help either. Even now that remains of your steel industry is being lost.



The Airbus is built at 16 sites across four countries so I don't quite see your point.
Rolls-Royce still employs British workers to assemble the vehicles and parts for it are made by a myriad of other British companies.
Guinness is British-owned but made in Ireland - so what ? Does it make it any less of an iconic Irish brand ?
You're allowing parochialism to obscure the fact that industry is global these days..


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> Let's not get into a discussion about why that was the case. I'm not a fan of the whole "800 years of oppression" BS or the simplistic anti-English historical narrative which such discussions inevitably descend into but there are legitimate historical reasons why Irish people (and Ireland as a whole) were so poor that they needed to immigrate and England had a large, but by no means exclusive, part to play in it.



Ireland became a Republic in 1949. You're not seriously telling me a single person has moved to the UK since then as a result of British policies ?
People emigrate from Ireland because of the ineptitude of the politicians elected to run this country.


----------



## Purple (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> The Airbus is built at 16 sites across four countries so I don't quite see your point.
> Rolls-Royce still employs British workers to assemble the vehicles and parts for it are made by a myriad of other British companies.
> Guinness is British-owned but made in Ireland - so what ? Does it make it any less of an iconic Irish brand ?
> You're allowing parochialism to obscure the fact that industry is global these days..


That's ironic. 
Industry is indeed global these days. That's why leaving the single market is not a good thing. Airbus is a good example; lots of high paid and highly skilled jobs, most of the manufacture done in the UK but the company is headquartered in France and final assembly also takes place there. I work in the sector (manufacturing) and the Primes (Thales, Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier) and Trier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers in the UK are fearful of what the future holds for them. Their Industry Group came out strongly in favour of remaining in the EU.


----------



## Purple (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Ireland became a Republic in 1949. You're not seriously telling me a single person has moved to the UK since then as a result of British policies ?
> People emigrate from Ireland because of the ineptitude of the politicians elected to run this country.


I don't know where to begin with that one. If your understanding of Irish history really is that limited then there's no point in discussing it. I suspect you know better but are choosing to be argumentative in which case there's also no point in discussing it.


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> That's ironic.
> Industry is indeed global these days. That's why leaving the single market is not a good thing. Airbus is a good example; lots of high paid and highly skilled jobs, most of the manufacture done in the UK but the company is headquartered in France and final assembly also takes place there. I work in the sector (manufacturing) and the Primes (Thales, Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier) and Trier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers in the UK are fearful of what the future holds for them. Their Industry Group came out strongly in favour of remaining in the EU.




Well that's what the next two years of negotiations will all be about.
But the idea that the EU holds all the aces and the UK is plunging into an abyss that will also swallow up British industry is nonsense.
It is within the interests of many European businesses with valuable UK markets that a reasonable deal which suits both sides is secured.
Fortunately people like the clown Druncker appear to have been sidelined and more sensible voices are being heard.
But who knows ? We shall see.


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> I don't know where to begin with that one. If your understanding of Irish history really is that limited then there's no point in discussing it. I suspect you know better but are choosing to be argumentative in which case there's also no point in discussing it.



There came a point when Ireland had to stop playing the victim card and that was a very long time ago.
We all partied.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (17 Jan 2017)

What do you think of this _Nige_?

Ok Ray Houghton was Scottish and Jack Charlton was undoubtedly English.

Any chance of dropping "combined" from OP?  Go on, I'll drop the bone if you do, promise


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Purple said:


> I don't know where to begin with that one. If your understanding of Irish history really is that limited then there's no point in discussing it. I suspect you know better but are choosing to be argumentative in which case there's also no point in discussing it.



What do we think of the Irish government's response to Brexit thus far ? Kenny seems strangely quiet on such a major decision that will inevitably affect Ireland unless there are some Machiavellian discussions going on behind doors that we don't know about.
I think this represents a perfect opportunity for Ireland as well - even for something like renegotiating the terms of the bailout deal in return for supporting the rest of Europe.
I know Ireland often likes to plead it's a special case but in this case,with the Northern Ireland peace process at a difficult point,I think it could very well argue that.
Is there even a special Brexit committee in the government ?


----------



## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Currencies will always fluctuate - that's what happens in a market place.
> Sterling is currently at the rate the IMF suggested it should be at just before the Referendum.



With respect that's a cop out. The value of sterling has fallen significantly as a direct result of the Brexit result and you know this. Do you really think the market hangs on every word from the IMF? Can you provide other examples of where the IMF have indicated what a currency should be and the market reacted in a similiar way?


----------



## Dan Murray (17 Jan 2017)

Morning dog, 



Duke of Marmalade said:


> Ok Ray Houghton _was_ Scottish and Jack Charlton _was_ undoubtedly English.



Some very serious questions arise - absolutely critical to the substantive debate here, our future, the future of Europe and indeed, the future of the entire planet.

Have Ray and Jack changed their nationality?
At what point would one move from being Scottish to undoubtedly Scottish?
When Jack came to work here, would he at that point have been deemed to be no longer English - i.e. elsewhere in this thread, people like Jack were described, without challenge, as non-nationals?

Paddywhack


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> With respect that's a cop out. The value of sterling has fallen significantly as a direct result of the Brexit result and you know this. Do you really think the market hangs on every word from the IMF? Can you provide other examples of where the IMF have indicated what a currency should be and the market reacted in a similiar way?



But I didn't say the market had reacted to what Christine Lagard said.Merely that sterling was now at levels the IMF said it should be at before the referendum.
Trying to predict markets is difficult - that's why if you're successful you make a lot of money.
Take this morning for example.Sterling is up one cent against the dollar largely on UK inflation figures out which show air fares and food prices have pushed up inflation to a 30-month high. And what caused that ? The fall in the value of the pound.
So a falling pound has actually seen sterling rise today. Crazy,eh ?
Now increased inflation is not necessarily a bad thing.It could mean a rise in interest rates which is good news for savers but bad news for people with a mortgage.
The lesson to learn is that markets have a life of their own and trying to formulate government policy based on what you think might happen in two year's time is an impossible task.


----------



## Purple (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Well that's what the next two years of negotiations will all be about.
> But the idea that the EU holds all the aces and the UK is plunging into an abyss that will also swallow up British industry is nonsense.


 I agree.


Wahaay said:


> It is within the interests of many European businesses with valuable UK markets that a reasonable deal which suits both sides is secured.


 I agree there as well. The jingoistic rhetoric from the Brexiteers needs to tones down though. 



Wahaay said:


> But who knows ? We shall see.


 That's the thing; nobody knows.


----------



## Purple (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> What do we think of the Irish government's response to Brexit thus far ? Kenny seems strangely quiet on such a major decision that will inevitably affect Ireland unless there are some Machiavellian discussions going on behind doors that we don't know about.
> I think this represents a perfect opportunity for Ireland as well - even for something like renegotiating the terms of the bailout deal in return for supporting the rest of Europe.
> I know Ireland often likes to plead it's a special case but in this case,with the Northern Ireland peace process at a difficult point,I think it could very well argue that.
> Is there even a special Brexit committee in the government ?


The Irish government has shown its usual ineptitude. I'm sure that will continue. They are in good company though as Ms. Maybe shows just how out of her depth she it.


----------



## Purple (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> There came a point when Ireland had to stop playing the victim card and that was a very long time ago.
> We all partied.


Yes, certainly since the early to mid 80's, maybe a decade earlier than that but most emigration took place in the 50's and 60's. Back then we were still suffering the consequences of Colonial rule and the trade war (which we lost) which was caused by our refusal to buy our own country back from our former rulers.


----------



## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> But I didn't say the market had reacted to what Christine Lagard said.Merely that sterling was now at levels the IMF said it should be at before the referendum.



My mistake, I thought you were implying that the market took on board what Christine Lagard said. Obviously that's codswallop.

However, you still have not provided any of these political events you think were responsible for the fall in STG. I have provided many links to how the fall in sterling was _directly_ as a result of the Brexit result. Found anything to back up your assertion yet?



Wahaay said:


> The lesson to learn is that markets have a life of their own and trying to formulate government policy based on what you think might happen in two year's time is an impossible task.



I agree, but the market _has _reacted to what it thinks might happen in two year's time. The result is that Sterling is now less attractive to hold.


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> My mistake, I thought you were implying that the market took on board what Christine Lagard said. Obviously that's codswallop.
> 
> However, you still have not provided any of these political events you think were responsible for the fall in STG. I have provided many links to how the fall in sterling was _directly_ as a result of the Brexit result. Found anything to back up your assertion yet?
> 
> ...



Again you have misunderstood what I was saying which was that markets react _generally_ to political events and I entirely agree that sterling's fall since Brexit was as a result of the vote,a political event.
Markets don't like uncertainty and since the vote there has been uncertainty,not least because May's government has undertaken a massive logistical exercise involving all government departments to ascertain the effects on all aspects of the country of certain policy decisions they might take.
They obviously have a plan in mind now and clearly markets have already factored in what they think that plan will be.
But should a fall in sterling be positive proof that a wrong decision has been taken ? I don't think so.Merely that in the short term markets are uncertain.
But in two years time with a favourable trade deal on the table the markets and sterling might react completely differently.
The reality is no-one knows and particularly not economists as their predictions over the last year have shown.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (17 Jan 2017)

I will repeat my earlier disclaimer that I am no economist but will nonetheless throw in my two cents worth on the performance of the UK economy since Brexit.  I understand that, contrary to predictions, the consumer has proved remarkably resilient and this is what keeps the show afloat.  Where is the surprise here?  The consumer voted for Brexit.  The consumer won.  Why shouldn't the consumer be confident?  The idea that the consumer after getting her wish in the polls would then change her mind about buying that house mystifies me. Economics was always a mystery to me.

But the consumer can only keep defying gravity for so long.  For quite some time now the UK consumer has been subidised by unsustainable Government deficits (ok Ireland not much better) and has been running horrendous trade deficits (Ireland much better).  The collapse in the exchange rate has not hit home yet but when the UK consumer finds that this year's fortnight in Shagaluf is 20% dearer than last year they will not be so happy clappy.

_Dan_ what can I say in the face of such withering wit?  On degrees of certitude regarding nationality, Ray is somewhat dubious, born in Glasgow but wearing the green jersey.  Jack on the other hand is 100% Geordie.  Were you a slow learner at school, _Dan_?


----------



## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Again you have misunderstood what I was saying which was that markets react _generally_ to political events and I entirely agree that sterling's fall since Brexit was as a result of the vote,a political event.



Thanks for clarifying that sterling's fall since Brexit was as a result of the vote not not some other makey-uppy political event or anything the IMF had said. 

Why do you think the value of sterling has fallen so much? Please, don't offer up the uncertainty card as surely the value of sterling could have strengthened in that case just as easily? Why do you think a nation's currency becomes less attractive to hold?


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> Thanks for clarifying that sterling's fall since Brexit was as a result of the vote not not some other makey-uppy political event or anything the IMF had said.
> 
> Why do you think the value of sterling has fallen so much? Please, don't offer up the uncertainty card as surely the value of sterling could have strengthened in that case just as easily? Why do you think a nation's currency becomes less attractive to hold?



Who knows ?
Why do you think the value of the Euro has fluctuated so much in recent years ?
Or the dollar ? Or yen ?
Currencies are constantly in a state of flux and always will be.
Britain remains a powerful trading nation that attracts inward investment from all over the world.


----------



## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Currencies are constantly in a state of flux and always will be.



I agree. New information, which drives sentiment, affects the price. The new information in this case was the Brexit result as we have established. Why did the Brexit result make Sterling less attractive to hold?


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> I agree. New information, which drives sentiment, affects the price. The new information in this case was the Brexit result as we have established. Why did the Brexit result make Sterling less attractive to hold?



Well as we write the pound is rising thanks to May's promise of a vote in Parliament on the final Brexit deal.
Seems some people find it more attractive to hold than at 8am this morning.
Welcome to capitalism baby.

www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/6049-gbp-to-usd-and-eur


----------



## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Well as we write the pound is rising thanks to May's promise of a vote in Parliament on the final Brexit deal.



So there is still a slight chance it may not go ahead so. And what happens? Sterling becomes more valuable to hold!

Why did the Brexit result (before the above announcement) make Sterling less attractive to hold?


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> So there is still a slight chance it may not go ahead so. And what happens? Sterling becomes more valuable to hold!
> 
> Why did the Brexit result (before the above announcement) make Sterling less attractive to hold?



As I said before who knows ? That's why traders speculate.
I don't share the view that currency is the only indicating of the economic health of a country - there are a host of others including manufacturing data,unemployment figures etc.


----------



## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> As I said before who knows ? That's why traders speculate.
> I don't share the view that currency is the only indicating of the economic health of a country - there are a host of others including manufacturing data,unemployment figures etc.



I agree, but it seems clear to me that the price of Sterling fell after the Brexit result and has now increased as there is a slight chance it might not go ahead. Reasonable?


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> I agree, but it seems clear to me that the price of Sterling fell after the Brexit result and has now increased as there is a slight chance it might not go ahead. Reasonable?



There's always a chance it might not go ahead but as a betting man I'd put the odds at very,very long.
May could call a snap election tomorrow and Labour would be annihilated in the North and Labour MPs know that.
She also has a huge degree of support in the Conservative Party with only a few Remoaners like Ken Clarke or Anna Soubry causing trouble.
Will the Lords block it ? Not a chance.
Can Nicola Sturgeon block it ? No. She's already dropped the idea of a second referendum ( which she would lose ) in favour of a ludicrous suggestion that Scotland could remain in the Single Market if the rest of the UK is out. You could hear the laughter all the way from Brussels.
But it's always worth a punt on the off-chance.
For what it's worth May's speech was a good one and has killed off all this talk about Britain having no plan.A surprising amount of detail and,of course,that vote in Parliament was the rabbit pulled out of the hat.
Personally I would have liked her to guarantee the rights of all EU citizens currently in the UK but as she pointed out in her speech while there's a great deal of support for an agreement amongst most EU countries one or two are not being helpful.That's the EU for you.

A quick look at Sterling - heading for its biggest one-day gain since 2008.


----------



## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> There's always a chance it might not go ahead but as a betting man I'd put the odds at very,very long.



The markets probably agree and hence the only slight increase in the price of Sterling..


----------



## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> A quick look at Sterling - heading for its biggest one-day gain since 2008.



From a very low point!


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## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Welcome to capitalism baby.



Indeed!

_The Irish government has signalled its intent to exploit May’s plans to leave the single market and customs union with bids to woo EU agencies from London to Dublin.

A spokesperson for the government in Dublin said there were now “economic opportunities that may arise for Ireland” following the UK’s decision.

“Bids for the EU agencies currently located in London – the European Medicines Board and the European Banking Authority have already been announced and the state enterprise agencies are actively pursuing opportunities for increased investment, business and job creation in Ireland,” they said.

“Economic opportunities for Ireland will be pursued vigorously”, the government spokesperson continued._

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...d-of-theresa-mays-brexit-speech-politics-live


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## Duke of Marmalade (17 Jan 2017)

I have read May's full speech and listened to the BBC News coverage at one o'clock.  May's speech is long but it is compulsory reading.  I recommend that AAM listeners Google it as soon as possible.

She certainly talks a good talk.  In ways a very concilitiary speech to the EU, I am sure the Redwoods of this world cringed at it.  The speech makes it very clear what the stakes are.  As to the sterling exchange rate, it has been for some time entirely dominated by Brexit.  Down on a "hard" message, up on a "soft".  At the weekend we were told of a very hard Brexit to be announced by May.  Sterling plunged.  The speech itself is a breathtaking (I mean that charitably) vision of Britain having its cake and eat it.

Everyone knew the Single Market was a gonner.  If free movement of people stayed then there was no Brexit.  The real issue was Free Trade with the EU and membership of the Customs Union (common tariff against non members).  May's vision is for complete Free Trade with the EU, for freedom to set its own tariffs with the rest of the World, for freedom to set its own regulations and for the end to the UK's contribution to the EU budget.  If all that were to happen sterling would soar possibly right back to levels seen at the commencement of the euro (1.5).  Of course she is not going to get all that; we would all want a piece of that.  But on Monday the markets were fearing that she would throw the toys out of the pram.  Instead she sets as her objective the desire to keep all of the EU benefits and escape all of its obligations.


----------



## Purple (17 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I have read May's full speech and listened to the BBC News coverage at one o'clock.  May's speech is long but it is compulsory reading.  I recommend that AAM listeners Google it as soon as possible.
> 
> She certainly talks a good talk.  In ways a very concilitiary speech to the EU, I am sure the Redwoods of this world cringed at it.  The speech makes it very clear what the stakes are.  As to the sterling exchange rate, it has been for some time entirely dominated by Brexit.  Down on a "hard" message, up on a "soft".  At the weekend we were told of a very hard Brexit to be announced by May.  Sterling plunged.  The speech itself is a breathtaking (I mean that charitably) vision of Britain having its cake and eat it.
> 
> Everyone knew the Single Market was a gonner.  If free movement of people stayed then there was no Brexit.  The real issue was Free Trade with the EU and membership of the Customs Union (common tariff against non members).  May's vision is for complete Free Trade with the EU, for freedom to set its own tariffs with the rest of the World, for freedom to set its own regulations and for the end to the UK's contribution to the EU budget.  If all that were to happen sterling would soar possibly right back to levels seen at the commencement of the euro (1.5).  Of course she is not going to get all that; we would all want a piece of that.  But on Monday the markets were fearing that she would throw the toys out of the pram.  Instead she sets as her objective the desire to keep all of the EU good things and escape all of its bad things.


Let's hope she gets all she is looking for; what's good for them is good for us.


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> Indeed!
> 
> _The Irish government has signalled its intent to exploit May’s plans to leave the single market and customs union with bids to woo EU agencies from London to Dublin.
> 
> ...




There's no doubt there could be some opportunities for Dublin as indeed there may be for Frankfurt and possibly Paris and one hopes the Irish government is pursuing these with vigilance.
But they have been saying much the same for the last six months and so far no-one appears to have lured by their entreaties.
The reality is London is a major world financial centre and it is going to remain that way.No-one should get carried away by notions that major financial corporations are going to re-locate their headquarters away from London,particularly if Britain reduces its corporate tax rates in the future.


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> From a very low point!



I can remember when one pound bought you two dollars.These things have a habit of correcting themselves over time.


----------



## Firefly (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> The reality is London is a major world financial centre and it is going to remain that way.No-one should get carried away by notions that major financial corporations are going to re-locate their headquarters away from London,particularly if Britain reduces its corporate tax rates in the future.



Anthony Browne, head of the British Bankers’ Association would seem to disagree with you:

_“Most international banks now have project teams working out which operations they need to move to ensure they can continue serving customers, the date by which this must happen, and how best to do it,” he says.

“Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”_

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> Anthony Browne, head of the British Bankers’ Association would seem to disagree with you:
> 
> _“Most international banks now have project teams working out which operations they need to move to ensure they can continue serving customers, the date by which this must happen, and how best to do it,” he says.
> 
> ...




Except that article was dated October last year and doom-monger Anthony Browne of the BBA was roundly laughed at when the story came out.
Can you cite any banks that have started re-locating yet ? You know,the smaller ones at least which were going to up sticks before Christmas.
How about French bank Credit Agricole with revenues of around €30billion,so not your average high street credit union.In November it extended the lease on its current headquarters in the City of London until 2025, indicating it has shelved plans to seek a new base after the Brexit vote.
Then there's UK-based Icap,the world’s largest interdealer broker which reported in November half-year revenues rose 11 per cent to £254m on the back of volatility generated by the UK’s decision to leave the EU.It has no plans to re-locate.
You have to remember that banks have investing huge sums in the City of London since Big Bang,the de-regulation of London's financial markets 30 years ago.Why should they consider leaving at this stage when A50 hasn't even been triggered and the two years of negotiations haven't even started.
I'd be wary of taking much notice of The Guardian's financial coverage too seriously.The Guardian Media Group suffered losses of £173million last year.


----------



## Wahaay (17 Jan 2017)

Interesting snap poll after May's speech.

 Do you support Theresa May's plan to leave the EU single market?
Support 51%
Oppose 39%

https://twitter.com/SkyData


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## Duke of Marmalade (17 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Interesting snap poll after May's speech.
> 
> Do you support Theresa May's plan to leave the EU single market?
> Support 51%
> ...


Control of EU immigration,  full Free Trade with the EU, freedom to negotiate tariffs with third countries, exemption from applying EU regulations, end of contribution to EU budget.

Jayz, 39% oppose this.  The UK have a serious mental health problem.

Any chance of dropping "combined" from OP?


----------



## Dan Murray (17 Jan 2017)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Were you a slow learner at school, _Dan_?



Actually, I was a bookish child and understand that I would today be characterised as _dys_active and _hyper_lexic. Thank you for your concern. Not incidentally,



Duke of Marmalade said:


> The UK have a serious mental health problem.



I think what you are trying to say is that the UK _has_ a serious mental health problem.  Is there a specific number of times that I need to explain this particular rule to you? Just tell me - I'll go along with it.


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## Duke of Marmalade (17 Jan 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> Actually, I was a bookish child and understand that I would today be characterised as _dys_active and _hyper_lexic. Thank you for your concern.


I haven't the time to Google these but my sympathies in case they are in order. It feels kinda weird that someone is parsing my grammar, checking my sums, checking my spelling, waiting to pounce but I suppose if I Googled your characterisations I would understand the sindrome (go on get me on that).


----------



## Dan Murray (17 Jan 2017)

Aaaggh _Dukie babe_,

I'm just happy you're not taking your little ball home with you again!  Perhaps, with a little care (like occasionally editing your posts??!!), you can get there! 

Anyway, you'll be happy that this is my last post on this thread. I'm boring myself senseless at this stage. Also, it are time for Homeland.


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## Duke of Marmalade (18 Jan 2017)

_Dan_ please don't go


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## Leper (20 Jan 2017)

We're getting caught up with Brexit which is seen by most to be just a blimp on the way to financial improvement for Ireland.  The reality is that the Brits are the first to jump ship (can we blame them?) and Italy and France are just an election behind before they jump too.  Brexit is just the start of the breakup of the European Union.

Britain can support itself and a population so little as ours would fit comfortably into the Greater Manchester area and we wouldn't even be noticed. 40% of our exports go to the UK. We can't afford not to have the UK as a large trading partner.  Anybody who thinks the French and Germans and God help us the Belgians and Dutch are going to take more of our exports is living in the twilight zone.

We have our politicians telling us that opportunity knocks.  We will soon be the largest English speaking country of the EU.  Like every multi-national in the UK is just about to up sticks and move to Ennis! 

For the record:- Yesterday in the Leper Colony I asked eight of my work colleagues to name an MEP in our constituency.  The silence was deafening.

Sooner or later we have to think Irexit; let's go with the Brits before it is too late.


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## jjm (20 Jan 2017)

We will be one of the smaller English speaking countries left once the UK leave.Over 90% of the Netherlands can converse in English.Close to 100% of German people involved in trade under 40 year old speak English fluently.Some of the big companies who have located to Ireland see the Population of foreign speaking nationals living in Ireland as the main reason the located here.


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## Leo (20 Jan 2017)

Leper said:


> Anybody who thinks the French and Germans and God help us the Belgians and Dutch are going to take more of our exports is living in the twilight zone.



So perhaps there's a lot of us living in the twilight zone, you're aware Belgium alone accounts for a similar portion of our total exports as the UK? Indeed in 2015 our exports to Belgium exceeded those to the UK.

Can you clarify what year you're referring to where the UK accounted for 40% of our exports by value?


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## Duke of Marmalade (20 Jan 2017)

Leo said:


> Indeed in 2015 our exports to Belgium exceeded those to the UK.


Nice call out _Leo_.  I must admit on first reading _Leper's_ post I fell for her post-truths.  Let's hope that, unlike OP, she has the decency to retract hers.


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## cremeegg (20 Jan 2017)

Dan Murray said:


> Actually, I was a bookish child and understand that I would today be characterised as _dys_active and _hyper_lexic.



Only if your parents were foolish enough to send you to a quack to be labelled.


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## so-crates (20 Jan 2017)

Some very nice graphics showing exactly what we send and where available here
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/irl/

The "40%" figure relates to *food* exports specifically. http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...imary-driver-of-economic-turnaround-1.2221285

We are the 33rd largest exporter in the world, which may be as a result of many things that people have an issue with (multinationals driving high value exports for example) but is definitely not something we should either ignore or view as just a problem. 14% of our exports go to the UK - a not insignificant amount but compare that to Ireland in 1973 - the halcyon days that the 50 and 60 something English voted on the basis of - 55% of *ALL* Irish exports went to the UK. Fundamentally, whilst they are still a large part of our customer base, we have extended our base beyond a dangerous dependence on them in all areas - even food. Following their lead would be to foolishly bind ourselves once again to a dependence on their magnanimity - it was never a good deal for Ireland.

A hard Brexit will hurt - that is pretty clear. And it will be a difficult adjustment - but if history has taught us nothing else it shows we have dealt with far worse from them.


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## jjm (20 Jan 2017)

You need to look at what we are importing from UK and what they are used for. In 1973 I suspect we were not the 33rd largest exporter in the world chances are it was real then. Chances are The 14% now is real wealth
not just paper unlike some of our other exports today.Not the same world now.


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## Leo (20 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> You need to look at what we are importing from UK and what they are used for.



Care to elaborate on the breakdown then and what you think the significance is? Otherwise statements such as this are tantamount to trolling.

QUOTE="jjm2016, post: 1502246, member: 98370"]Chances are The 14% now is real wealth not just paper unlike some of our other exports today.[/QUOTE]

What is this fake wealth we're exporting? Are we not getting paid for it?


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## cremeegg (20 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> You need to look at what we are importing from UK and what they are used for. In 1973 I suspect we were not the 33rd largest exporter in the world chances are it was real then. Chances are The 14% now is real wealth
> not just paper unlike some of our other exports today.Not the same world now.



Do you think this means something ?

I cannot understand the point you are trying to make.


----------



## Ceist Beag (20 Jan 2017)

so-crates said:


> Some very nice graphics showing exactly what we send and where available here
> http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/irl/
> 
> The "40%" figure relates to *food* exports specifically. http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...imary-driver-of-economic-turnaround-1.2221285
> ...


That export graphic only seems to list physical exports but surely a large part of our export would be services (i.e. consultancy etc.) or software - is this captured in that graph as I didn't see it or where could you find what % this accounts for?


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## Leper (20 Jan 2017)

. . . . looks like I undersold Belgium as a friendly country to us . . . . hope there are no Belgians looking in . . . God bless 'em . . .


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## Duke of Marmalade (20 Jan 2017)

Fair play _Leper_, now if only OP could follow your example


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## jjm (20 Jan 2017)

Leo.There has being a massive jump in net exports In 2015 26.3% Over 200% more than we exported in 2015   to the UK.Economist Jim power dismissed the 26.3% as meaningless.He said it is Inpossible to interpret what is going on.Irish Government say we could loose 40000 jobs with a hard Brexit .If we lost half of the 14% we export to the Uk we would know about it.If we lost the 26.3% we would save around 280 million in payments to the EU in 2017.


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## jjm (20 Jan 2017)

cremeegg. Lots of Irish and multinationals companies source services and consumable parts/machinery through UK appointed agents holding contracts to do so for Companies all over the world.This will not change just because Irish companies have to pay a tariff on inports from uk .


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## jjm (20 Jan 2017)

There may be Belgium registered Multinational company's for tax reason looking in who use Belgium to get money back home


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## Wahaay (20 Jan 2017)

A well-reasoned argument that lifts the level of debate above the pond life of cretinous You Tube posters.
The reality is Ireland's fortunes are inextricably linked with the UK and not the EU.
Ireland has a unique opportunity,because of Northern Ireland,to exercise real influence in the upcoming debates if only Kenny grew a pair of cojones and looked beyond being Merkel's lapdog in order to secure a lucrative EU sinecure when his time runs out in Irish politics.
The people in this country are once again being sold short by their political masters.


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## Leper (21 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> . . . The reality is Ireland's fortunes are inextricably linked with the UK and not the EU. . .
> Ireland has a unique opportunity,because of Northern Ireland,to exercise real influence in the upcoming debates if only Kenny grew a pair of cojones and looked beyond being Merkel's lapdog in order to secure a lucrative EU sinecure when his time runs out in Irish politics.
> The people in this country are once again being sold short by their political masters.



Well then, let's join the Brits and bring the Belgians with us out of the EU.


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## Wahaay (21 Jan 2017)

Leper said:


> Well then, let's join the Brits and bring the Belgians with us out of the EU.



Sadly history has shown - remember the Lisbon Treaty votes - that the Irish people are easily coerced by threats from outside.
There is hardly any real debate on an Irexit in this country with the mainstream media slavishly lapping up what its political masters want.
The Irish Times and RTE are Ireland's versions of The Guardian and BBC.Watch how they will cover the next real test of anti-EU sentiment,the Dutch general election, where the Leavers will be portrayed as spittle-flecked racists and the Remainers the last bastion of liberal consensus.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (21 Jan 2017)

I must remember to ignore posts made at quarter to midnight of a Friday night.

A bit off topic but I have just noticed that my favourite team, Everton,  have a goal difference greater than all the rest of the Premier League (wait for it...) *combined*.  Yet they are only in 7th position  They should immediately exit this iniquitous league.

Meanwhile, back on topic, John Longworth (you know him _Nige_?) of Leave means Leave will tell an audience of German businessmen that tariffs on UK imports holds no fear as the UK government will simply pay these  Wow!  If we could only rely on 27 countries to keep the head down and not point out the utter nonsense that this is, nobody else need contribute anything to the EU budget ever again.  Actually come to think of  it John must have gone to the same "combined" school of math as OP


----------



## cremeegg (21 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> cremeegg. Lots of Irish and multinationals companies source services and consumable parts/machinery through UK appointed agents holding contracts to do so for Companies all over the world.This will not change just because Irish companies have to pay a tariff on inports from uk .



Thats seems likely to be true. However wont the additional tariffs add to the cost of doing business.


----------



## cremeegg (21 Jan 2017)

I am coming to the conclusion that actually Brexit may be a stalking horse.

If/when Britain leaves the EU, its terms of trade with the EU will worsen and Britain will be poorer as a result. It may forge new trading links which will more than offset this, while I very much doubt that, no one can tell the future.

However perhaps the real issue is what type of country the post EU Britain will be.

Will it have a high level of workers rights, will it have strong product safety standards, will it enforce strong environmental protection measures on business. These are all decisions that Britain will have to take for itself, of course in practice that means the current government will take these decisions. More real power over the future of Britain than any government since Atlee.

The answers to these questions, for a generation to come, will be set by the current parliament. That may be Cameron's real legacy.


----------



## PMU (21 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> There is hardly any real debate on an Irexit in this country with the mainstream media slavishly lapping up what its political masters want.
> The Irish Times and RTE are Ireland's versions of The Guardian and BBC. Watch how they will cover the next real test of anti-EU sentiment,the Dutch general election, where the Leavers will be portrayed as spittle-flecked racists and the Remainers the last bastion of liberal consensus.


  I'm inclined to agree with this. For example last month,  Rudolf Mellinghoff, a judge in the German fiscal court, is reported as saying that the EC should punish Ireland, and not Apple, over the 'state aid to industry' issue [broken link removed] and .  By any reasonable standard it is unacceptable for a judge to call for a punishment not only when a case is under appeal but also to call for action to be taken against a party that is not under charge. I don't have a subscription to the article, but I don't remember seeing this reported in any of the Irish media.  Or indeed any Irish politician taking him to task on it.  In our common law system, we would not expect a judge to speak out on a specific case, or indeed to call for a specific finding. It's not justice as we know it, and is another example of the 'rotten heart of Europe'. The point being, I don't think we have any friends in the EU and our national interests, on which nobody appears to agree, will be ignored in the Brexit negotiations.


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## Wahaay (21 Jan 2017)

The EU is rotten to the core.
If the freedom of goods,services and people is so sacrosanct why do Irish people have to pay import duty (VRT)on cars they can buy cheaper elsewhere in Europe ?


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## cremeegg (22 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> why do Irish people have to pay import duty (VRT)on cars they can buy cheaper elsewhere in Europe ?



I dont know, why ?

Is it because the EU requires it ? Or is it because the Irish government got a special exemption on the basis that we would cry if we couldn't make people pay this extra tax ?


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## Duke of Marmalade (22 Jan 2017)

VRT is of course not an import tax, they're illegal under EU rules.  It is a registration tax.  It applies equally to imported cars and to Irish made cars.  Irish solution


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## jjm (23 Jan 2017)

call it what you like It was brought in after lobbying by the vehicle dealers to stop People inporting vehicles into Ireland after our much treasured EU single market came into force in 1993. vrt was introduced in the 1992 finance act  by the Government to get round the implications of the single market.The EU has commented that although vrt is legal it is totally contary to the spirit of the single market and has recommended that it be phased out over 5 yo 10 years , this recommendation was made in 2005 so far no action has being taken by the Government to phase out vrt,For the record I know vrt brought in 400 million in 2016. Maybe the UK could bring in a national registration tax for everyone including uk born and stay in the EU.We could allow any uk person who wanted to avoid paying to pop over to have there babies under the common travel arrangments.We are good at this sort of thing.Irish solution to a UK problem.


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## Leo (23 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> Leo.There has being a massive jump in net exports In 2015 26.3% Over 200% more than we exported in 2015   to the UK.



This doesn't actually make any sense. Can you explain the point you are trying to make? And also answer the previous question...

Taking the 'There has being a massive jump in net exports In 2015' piece. What jump are you talking about? Focusing just on the UK, there was a drop in the value of export to the UK in 2015 from €23.4B to €19.9B. 

Official November numbers were just published last week, so we'll need to wait while yet to see the overall picture for 2016.


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## Gerry Canning (23 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> The EU is rotten to the core.
> If the freedom of goods,services and people is so sacrosanct why do Irish people have to pay import duty (VRT)on cars they can buy cheaper elsewhere in Europe ?


I do not like (the EU is rotten to the core) to be left unchallenged.That is far far too broad an accusation.Please moderate such unthought out comments, and that is NOT to say EU is a bastion of virtue !.


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## Ceist Beag (23 Jan 2017)

Don't expect Wahaay to row back on such statements Gerry. He/She seems to come from the Trump school of post truths (such as the statement made in the very first post in this thread which the Duke has repeatedly asked to be revoked or the statement about McLaren being a car dealership in the UK) - I've yet to see a climb down or even a reply to any of the obvious falsehoods.

BTW are we allowed these days to call out a lie as a lie? It seems there are many ways of now this (post truths, falsehoods, and now "alternative facts") but wouldn't it be much easier for everyone if we just called them lies...


----------



## jjm (23 Jan 2017)

Leo I came on to this brexit 1017 to post on what i am seeing happening  and to learn from other posters point of view both for and against.I am involved in costing where we source material and services add value and export out of our country .In my line of work I am in direct contact with UK firms who supply products and services to Irish multinationals companies lots of them spotted the opening in Ireland when there own industries started to decline .Sometimes they even Joke saying Ireland 15% tax benefit  the UK every bit as much as it benefit Ireland . They look after Ireland its very important to them.There view which could be sales talk but I suspect they are correct .There view and it is backed up by what they said when Ireland joined the Euro they purchased  more inputs from the EU as a hedge against Sterling.There view is a hard Brexit of a soft brexit one tariff will cancell out the other because of this.There view is that the UK/EU will want to sort Brexit out in a short time frame for market reasons .UK and the big EU member states will be looking to structure brexit  if it happens so other members do not follow UK out of EU they both have a vested interest in not letting  this happen

When we talked to one of our largest customers in Germany with 4bn in sales world wide they are not expecting we will need to move away from any of our UK suppliers used in making there parts (vender approval is required and can take a long time to get re certified approval)`

Now to get to the Unfair statment That my post was Tantomount to trolling I can tell you I was not. I am sure some people thought the people bertie said should commit suicide were trolling.

If after Bretix we had another scare like mad cows disease I would expect the UK like almost every other country outside the single market would stop buying straight away some are now only allowing product back in years later.

Leo I well get back to you on another post when I get a chance thanks jjm


----------



## Leo (23 Jan 2017)

So you still can't clarify any of the direct questions asked or back up your assertions or the numbers you've posted to date and just post more rambling thoughts based on conjecture or anecdote. That very much is trolling.


----------



## jjm (23 Jan 2017)

Leo
Lets start with your post 193 Your statement there was a drop of the value of exports to the UK in 2015 from 23.4 B to 19.9 B show me where You got that If i am wrong I will admit it


----------



## Wahaay (23 Jan 2017)

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/dominic-cummings-brexit-referendum-won

For anyone interested in Brexit as a political science here's a very interesting piece by the organiser of the Vote Leave campaign on why the vote happened the way it did.
It's very long so you might want to make a cup of tea beforehand.


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## Leo (23 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> Leo
> Lets start with your post 193 Your statement there was a drop of the value of exports to the UK in 2015 from 23.4 B to 19.9 B show me where You got that If i am wrong I will admit it



Apologies, the €23.4 to €19.9 is the drop in UK exports to Ireland, the Ireland to UK exports dropped from €15.5B to €14.7B. So no massive increase as you claimed, but a drop over a year in which total exports rose by almost 20%.  The number are from HMRC via the [broken link removed].


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## jjm (23 Jan 2017)

Ok Leo I will do my best My first post no 39 .I said Brexit before even happens is costing Ireland over half a billion euro in 2016 (true)
Uk wages around 15 euro hr Ireland around 21 (true)
UK have done a good job on holding there cost base (true)
Gap is going to increase in 2017  just my own opinion who knows
Ireland will not be able to manage the fall out from brexit like the Uk will. Speaks for it self( True)


----------



## Delboy (23 Jan 2017)

Well after today's revelations up at Dublin airport, if I was a UKIP member, I'd be demanding as hard a border with ourselves here in LaLa land. The Gardai,  Dept of Justice, DAA etc gone into full PR spin mode on how important our borders are, how seriously we take the our border controls etc. All spin as the never ending English Language Schools scams have shown over the years.
The media throwing on the Immigration Council CEO all day to tell us how the victims of this crime i.e. the illegal immigrants need as much help and care as can be given to them, how vunerabe they are etc. 
All part of the Irish establishment rowing in together.

If the Brits don't insist on a hard border Ireland will become a transit camp for entry to the UK with all the problems that will bring for them and ourselves here.


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## jjm (24 Jan 2017)

Leo Read my post  179 again look at the !4% .Look at your post 200 Look at Your   ref to The British Irish chamber.Now look up Irelands Ecomomist left speechless by 26% groth figure to the British and Irish Trade Association you may even be able to post a link.


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## Purple (24 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> I am involved in costing where we source material and services add value and export out of our country .In my line of work I am in direct contact with UK firms who supply products and services to Irish multinationals companies lots of them spotted the opening in Ireland when there own industries started to decline .Sometimes they even Joke saying Ireland 15% tax benefit the UK every bit as much as it benefit Ireland . They look after Ireland its very important to them.There view which could be sales talk but I suspect they are correct .There view and it is backed up by what they said when Ireland joined the Euro they purchased more inputs from the EU as a hedge against Sterling.There view is a hard Brexit of a soft brexit one tariff will cancell out the other because of this.There view is that the UK/EU will want to sort Brexit out in a short time frame for market reasons .UK and the big EU member states will be looking to structure brexit if it happens so other members do not follow UK out of EU they both have a vested interest in not letting this happen


I work in manufacturing and we compete with companies here as well as in the UK, Germany, France, the USA and Asia. The UK is our biggest growth market. If you can't compete due to labour costs then you are not using your people efficiently. In a private business, free from the cancer of Trade Unions, it is possible to pay people a good wage and still be competitive by being lean and having efficient processes. The last thing that you should cut is the wages of the production employees. If the people running the business can't get their act together enough to have an efficient organisation then they should cut their own wages. 
We compete directly with Poland and China and we pay guys in production way more than their counterparts in the UK.


----------



## jjm (24 Jan 2017)

cremeegg Replying to your post 186. This seams to be true. However wont the additional tariffs add to the cost of doing Buisness.
What Tariffs. As it stands ordered through the Uk shipped direct from Manufacture to Ireland before or after Brexit no change .At least that is the story we are getting for a machine Order for Delivery in late 2019  through the UK.It will be japan to Ireland . Servicing and profit I suspect will  get caught with extra Tariffs .I expect any of the 19.9 shown on post 200 not UK manufactured /services will no longer come through the uk..This is happening  with consumable parts  sourced through uk and made in EU.


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## jjm (24 Jan 2017)

Purple I am delighted for you .We may have our wired crossed . We are saying the same thing. At least we agree on something .There are people on hear who would be happy  seeing trade falling off between UK and Ireland.Going off Leo link on post200 exports are falling every year since 2011.Inports are also down .Since 2011 we have increased output and profit and a bigger share of the UK market.I am sure people with UK connection Will be happy to Hear


----------



## Purple (24 Jan 2017)

I don't think anyone here is happy about reduced trade. They are just pointing out that's it's happening and that Brexit means it will continue.


----------



## jjm (24 Jan 2017)

Come to think of it you are correct Purple.


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## Leo (24 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> Leo Read my post  179 again look at the !4% .



OK, there you said:  



jjm2016 said:


> There has being a massive jump in net exports In 2015 26.3% Over 200% more than we exported in 2015 to the UK.



It's not really clear what point you're trying to make there in the context of Brexit. 

The rise in exports mentioned is total exports to all markets, not the UK. If we maintain this trend of significant increases in total exports while exports to the UK fall, the UK will become less and less significant over time.


----------



## jjm (24 Jan 2017)

Talking to UK people who wanted to remain in the EU .They are not expecting any reduction in trade into Ireland after Brexit  they think it will work out in the end .On the other hand almost all the Irish people are expecting trade to reduce.


----------



## Wahaay (24 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> Talking to UK people who wanted to remain in the EU .They are not expecting any reduction in trade into Ireland after Brexit  they think it will work out in the end .On the other hand almost all the Irish people are expecting trade to reduce.



It's hard to predict until we know the outcome of the negotiations.
Which is why the Irish government's view seems to veer between Dublin will benefit enormously from the City of London's loss and Ireland faces a catastrophic outcome - depending on who is talking.
It might benefit from a specific Brexit minister to coordinate the Government response and plan for the future but the message coming out of Enda Kenny's office is,as usual,very vague.


----------



## jjm (24 Jan 2017)

Leo Did you google Jim power on the 26.3 exports in 2015.Most was on paper.If Ireland grow by this amount by 2037 we would be exporting more than china.


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## Purple (24 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> Leo Did you google Jim power on the 26.3 exports in 2015.Most was on paper.If Ireland grow by this amount by 2037 we would be exporting more than china.


As we say here, If my Auntie had balls she'd be my Uncle.


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## jjm (24 Jan 2017)

Mayby she will grow a pair to make up for others.


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## Leo (24 Jan 2017)

jjm2016 said:


> Leo Did you google Jim power on the 26.3 exports in 2015.Most was on paper.If Ireland grow by this amount by 2037 we would be exporting more than china.



Can you explain what that has to do with Brexit? This whole saga started when you said:



jjm2016 said:


> You need to look at what we are importing from UK and what they are used for.



I asked you to clarify that, as it's not clear what point that was intended to make and what effect Brexit was going to have on the breakdown of what we import from the UK. Are you saying the types of goods we import from the UK are more sensitive to tariffs or not? Only or primarily available from the UK?


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## Wahaay (26 Jan 2017)

*UK shrugs off Brexit fears to be fastest growing G7 economy in 2016*
GDP grew 0.6% in fourth quarter and 2% for the year, according to ONS

How it must pain the Remain-loving FT to report the good economic news.

www.ft.com/content/1666262a-e39e-11e6-8405-9e5580d6e5fb?emailid=55ccb875090bff0300e78b63&segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb

The UK economy continued to power ahead over the final three months of last year, showing no signs yet of the slowdown that many economists had predicted since the country voted to leave the EU in June.
The economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Office for National Statistics. Growth for the year as a whole was 2 per cent, slightly slower than the 2.2 per cent figure for 2015 but still leaving the UK as the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year.
The preliminary estimate for the fourth quarter was above the consensus forecast of 0.5 per cent growth and the figure as was recorded in the second and third quarters. “Strong consumer spending supported the expansion of the dominant services sector and although manufacturing bounced back from a weaker third quarter, both it and construction remained broadly unchanged over the year,” said Darren Morgan, head of GDP at the ONS.


Meanwhile the first cracks in EU consensus appear with Spain indicating its keen for the EU to get cracking on a trade deal with the UK.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/spain-wants-to-start-brexit-trade-talks-2017-1


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## Leo (26 Jan 2017)

Brexit hasn't happened yet, still way to early to declare winners and losers. The effects of the currency devaluation haven't filtered through yet, factors such as the 50% rise in second hand cars heading to Ireland will be boosting consumer spending numbers.

The challenge with a trade deal is that it will require a consensus to enact. It'll certainly be better for us if a deal is done, but there are other parties no so keen to go down that road that can block it.


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## Duke of Marmalade (26 Jan 2017)

_Wahaay_ I haven't checked the source but I presume that yoy growth of 2.2% is in GBP terms.  Considering the GBP has fallen 20% against the USD that is an illusory increase in national wealth.


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## Wahaay (26 Jan 2017)

Leo said:


> Brexit hasn't happened yet, still way to early to declare winners and losers. The effects of the currency devaluation haven't filtered through yet, factors such as the 50% rise in second hand cars heading to Ireland will be boosting consumer spending numbers.
> 
> The challenge with a trade deal is that it will require a consensus to enact. It'll certainly be better for us if a deal is done, but there are other parties no so keen to go down that road that can block it.



As A50 hasn't been triggered yet we not even close to knowing what the eventual Brexit will be but they're certainly impressive GDP figures for a country where the experts predicted investment and industry would suffer immediately after the referendum vote.
And it's better for the UK to be heading into those negotiations with an economy that appears to be very much on track.
For once the figures also match IMF predictions !


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## Leo (26 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> ...but they're certainly impressive GDP figures for a country where the experts predicted investment and industry would suffer immediately after the referendum vote.



The effects of any investment decisions whether positive or negative would have no discernible impact on GDP figures so quickly.


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## Wahaay (26 Jan 2017)

Leo said:


> The effects of any investment decisions whether positive or negative would have no discernible impact on GDP figures so quickly.



That's not what I wrote.
Experts predicted investment would suffer.It hasn't.
They also predicted industry would suffer.It hasn't.
You think if the expert view had been correct about post-referendum GDP figures it wouldn't have shown by now ?
I've always said the true effect of Brexit won't be known for 5-10 years which is why Project Fear was such palpable nonsense.
But you name me a country in the world which wouldn't be delighted to have the UK's GDP figures right now.


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## Duke of Marmalade (26 Jan 2017)

UK GDP: 2015Q4  $680Bn 2016Q4 $590Bn -13%

Nothing for Brexiteers to crow about there.


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## Leo (27 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> I've always said the true effect of Brexit won't be known for 5-10 years which is why Project Fear was such palpable nonsense.



Then why keep bringing up short term numbers as some kind of vindication of the leave position?



Wahaay said:


> But you name me a country in the world which wouldn't be delighted to have the UK's GDP figures right now.



Just one? You might want to restrict the criteria a little.



Wahaay said:


> That's not what I wrote.
> Experts predicted investment would suffer.It hasn't.
> They also predicted industry would suffer.It hasn't.



What numbers are you basing those assertions on? Can you point to any real source that shows net investment inflows for the pre and post-referendum periods? Same for industry, what benchmarks are you using to assess performance both pre and post-referendum? Do you have sales and margin numbers?



Wahaay said:


> You think if the expert view had been correct about post-referendum GDP figures it wouldn't have shown by now ?



What experts were saying short-term GDP numbers would be an accurate reflection of the potential impacts of Brexit? That's like declaring the winner of a horse race based on what looks good in the parade ring. If you want to read anything into the GDP numbers, you need to consider what a flat GDP growth rate for the 4th quarter tells you when output was 10-20% cheaper.


----------



## Wahaay (27 Jan 2017)

Leo said:


> Then why keep bringing up short term numbers as some kind of vindication of the leave position?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I bring up the short-term economic stats as indicators that confidence in the British economy remains strong despite the Referendum vote and the tsunami of " expert " opinion predicting an immediate catastrophic effect on the economy in the even of a Leave vote.
As for the benchmark about how industry is performing pre and post-referendum what an earth do you think the GDP figures show ? Consumer-based industries are positive and whilst manufacturing and construction slowed in Q3 and Q4 due to natural uncertainties before the Brexit negotitations have begun they haven't fallen off a cliff as predicted.
By the way Q4 figures were not flat - they rose by 0.6%.
Just imagine if those figures in Q3 and Q4 were negative - all the usual suspects on here and elsewhere would be queuing up to say we told you so.
On the general criteria of GDP figures I should,of course,have referred to G7 countries of which the UK had the best growth last year.


----------



## Leo (27 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> I bring up the short-term economic stats as indicators that confidence in the British economy remains strong despite the Referendum vote and the tsunami of " expert " opinion predicting an immediate catastrophic effect on the economy in the even of a Leave vote.



But GDP isn't an accurate reflection of confidence.



Wahaay said:


> As for the benchmark about how industry is performing pre and post-referendum what an earth do you think the GDP figures show ?



Well GDP numbers just show GDP, you misunderstand how they're calculated if you think they immediately reflect investment levels or margins. You've categorically stated that investment levels and industry have not suffered since the vote, do you have any evidence to support this? I'd love to see numbers, but I haven't found anything published yet that reflects the post-vote period. The latest OECD reports I see only detail up to October. 



Wahaay said:


> By the way Q4 figures were not flat - they rose by 0.6%.



The growth rate was flat, as in the same as Q3



Wahaay said:


> Just imagine if those figures in Q3 and Q4 were negative - all the usual suspects on here and elsewhere would be queuing up to say we told you so.



Indeed they probably would have, I'd  have called them out as wrong too. 



Wahaay said:


> On the general criteria of GDP figures I should,of course,have referred to G7 countries of which the UK had the best growth last year.



Sure who wouldn't want to limit the list of competing economies to just another 6, including that economic powerhouse that is Italy!


----------



## Wahaay (27 Jan 2017)

Leo said:


> But GDP isn't an accurate reflection of confidence.
> 
> Sure who wouldn't want to limit the list of competing economies to just another 6, including that economic powerhouse that is Italy!



Don't be selective now.You omitted the USA,Germany,Japan,France and Canada.If you don't think the UK having better GDP growth than those countries in 2016 is not significant I'd struggle to take you seriously.


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## Leo (27 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Don't be selective now.You omitted the USA,Germany,Japan,France and Canada.If you don't think the UK having better GDP growth than those countries in 2016 is not significant I'd struggle to take you seriously.



Those countries didn't vote for Brexit, their GDPs are meaningless in the context of this thread. 

Again, can you provide links to any publication that backs up your assertion that investment and industry have not suffered since the Brexit vote?


----------



## Wahaay (27 Jan 2017)

Leo said:


> Those countries didn't vote for Brexit, their GDPs are meaningless in the context of this thread.
> 
> Again, can you provide links to any publication that backs up your assertion that investment and industry have not suffered since the Brexit vote?



Of course they're not meaningless - they're a comparison of how the UK is performing against other major countries.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/30/britain-has-secured-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/
Can you provide any evidence that investment and industry HAVE suffered since the Brexit vote ?


----------



## Leo (27 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Of course they're not meaningless - they're a comparison of how the UK is performing against other major countries.



They are meaningless in terms of the relative performance of the UK economy before and after the vote. If you were to demonstrate a consistent pattern of growth slowing in Q4 for a significant number of developed economies (and you'd need to expand your view far beyond the G7), then if you could show the UK bucking that trend, that might go some way towards justifying using them as a success measure, but even still, just looking at GDP is only looking at a tiny portion of the bigger picture. 



Wahaay said:


> www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/30/britain-has-secured-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...red-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/

That's something at least, but they're mostly talking about commitments to make future investments, not actual inflows. Commitments like that are common while negotiating major deals, they don't always pan out. The company I work for made a lot of headlines a couple of years back after making a commitment to take on 300 more staff. Now, the reality was that we had already hired 90% of those roles 6 months earlier, but the announcement at that time suited the purposes of the IDA with whom we were negotiating on a new round of grants. I also don't see how that £15b figure compares to the previous quarter or the same period in 2015. Once the OECD FDI reports for the full year are published, we should know more.



Wahaay said:


> Can you provide any evidence that investment and industry HAVE suffered since the Brexit vote ?



But I never said that they HAVE suffered. I'm curious as to the real impact on the UK economy and what knock-on effects that will have on us. I'm looking to go beyond the pro or anto-Brexit hype and see real numbers. You stated they have not suffered yet can offer no more that conjecture to back it up.


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## Firefly (27 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Can you cite any banks that have started re-locating yet ? You know,the smaller ones at least which were going to up sticks before Christmas.



*Barclays prepares to expand Dublin office after Brexit*

_Barclays is preparing to boost its operations in Dublin and use the Irish capital as its main base in the European Union if British banks are forced to relocate their EU businesses because of Brexit._

_“We have made clear repeatedly that we will plan for a range of Brexit contingencies, including building greater capacity into our existing operations in Dublin,” a Barclays spokesman said_

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/26/barclays-prepares-expand-dublin-office-brexit/

How do you like them apples?


----------



## Wahaay (27 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> *Barclays prepares to expand Dublin office after Brexit*
> 
> _Barclays is preparing to boost its operations in Dublin and use the Irish capital as its main base in the European Union if British banks are forced to relocate their EU businesses because of Brexit._
> 
> ...



*" is preparing " 
*
Here's what  Jes Staley, Barclays’ chief executive, actually said in Davos last week.

“I don’t believe that the financial centre of Europe will leave the city of London,” he told the BBC. “There are all sorts of reasons why I think the UK will continue to be the financial lungs for Europe.”

That's not to say a few backroom Excel monkeys won't be relocated to Dublin but the idea that London will lose its preminence as the world's leading financial centre is nonsense.

Those apples are small potatoes.


----------



## Duke of Marmalade (28 Jan 2017)

It doesn't give me any pleasure to see Theresa May going with begging bowl to the likes of Erdogan.  Nelson, Wellington, Churchill et al must be spinning.


----------



## Firefly (30 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> *" is preparing "
> *
> Here's what  Jes Staley, Barclays’ chief executive, actually said in Davos last week.
> 
> ...




Potatoes are a better analogy actually. Although we have a chequered relationship with the humble spud, we are now quite adept at growing them. Their beauty lies in the fact that once sown properly they propagate. It is oft mentioned that the entire population of Ireland could fit into greater Manchester. If Manchester had companies with their European Headquarters below you would be singing from the rafters!


Google
Facebook
Paypal
Microsoft
Yahoo
eBay
LinkedIn
AOL
Twitter
Airbnb
Intel
Apple
Pfizer
EMC
VMWARE

The International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) was established in 1987. It grew rapidly in the 2000's and has many international banks / organisations already in situ, such as :


Citibank
State Street International
Paypal
Accenture
BNY Mellon
BNP Paribas

In the past 10 years or so I believe the growth in the IFSC was pretty stagnant so if jobs move from London to Dublin they would be most welcome. As already noted, our population is quite small so just one or two big moves would be of material benefit.

Oh, from yesterday's Sunday Independent:

_Two major Asian banks are in "advanced talks" with the State to move part of their London operations to Ireland in the wake of Brexit.
SHARE
It is understood that Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) and the Bank of China (BOC) have both held a series of pre-application meetings with the Central Bank ahead of a potential move to Ireland._



Whether we call them apples or potatoes, I'm easy. I just notice that the ones above are bigger and most welcome on our shores!


----------



## Wahaay (30 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> Potatoes are a better analogy actually. Although we have a chequered relationship with the humble spud, we are now quite adept at growing them. Their beauty lies in the fact that once sown properly they propagate. It is oft mentioned that the entire population of Ireland could fit into greater Manchester. If Manchester had companies with their European Headquarters below you would be singing from the rafters!
> 
> 
> Google
> ...



Enjoy them while you can.
Once Trump slashes corporate taxes and if the UK does likewise they'll soon be back to growing tubers on those sites.


----------



## Firefly (30 Jan 2017)

The biggest potato of them all is taking some action, or more specifically, not taking planned action:

_Mr Blankfein told Bloomberg TV that his bank was already “slowing down” its recent shift of resources to the UK because of the referendum decision_

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...kes-theresa-may-to-task-over-brexit-1.2955749


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## Firefly (30 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> Enjoy them while you can.


We have been, thanks.



Wahaay said:


> Once Trump slashes corporate taxes and if the UK does likewise they'll soon be back to growing tubers on those sites.


The US has a huge internal market. Slashing corporation taxes to being 100,000 jobs home could be like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Billions of dollars less in taxation revenue to increase employment by about .5%...

I didn't say anything when I read your first mention of potatoes, but the reference to tubers is not the nicest. It's also a tad ironic when you refer to others as "the pond life of cretinous You Tube posters". 

You really should represent yourself better.


----------



## Wahaay (30 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> The biggest potato of them all is taking some action, or more specifically, not taking planned action:
> 
> _Mr Blankfein told Bloomberg TV that his bank was already “slowing down” its recent shift of resources to the UK because of the referendum decision_
> 
> http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...kes-theresa-may-to-task-over-brexit-1.2955749



This would be


Firefly said:


> The biggest potato of them all is taking some action, or more specifically, not taking planned action:
> 
> _Mr Blankfein told Bloomberg TV that his bank was already “slowing down” its recent shift of resources to the UK because of the referendum decision_
> 
> http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...kes-theresa-may-to-task-over-brexit-1.2955749




The Goldman Sachs which bankrolled the Remain campaign you mean ?
And the Goldman Sachs who,as one of AIB's biggest bondholders,was bailed out by your taxes ?I'm surprised you're such a big fan.
The City of London is big enough and experienced enough to look after itself and will still be a major financial centre long after Brexit.
But I'll pass on your concerns for its well-being to the relevant authorities.


----------



## Firefly (30 Jan 2017)

Wahaay said:


> The Goldman Sachs which bankrolled the Remain campaign you mean ?
> And the Goldman Sachs who,as one of AIB's biggest bondholders,was bailed out by your taxes ?I'm surprised you're such a big fan.
> The City of London is big enough and experienced enough to look after itself and will still be a major financial centre long after Brexit.
> But I'll pass on your concerns for its well-being to the relevant authorities.



I'm not a fan at all, just pointing out yet another major player in the market which does not appear to be happy about the outcome..


----------



## Wahaay (30 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> I'm not a fan at all, just pointing out yet another major player in the market which does not appear to be happy about the outcome..



There are lots of people not happy with the outcome,like Jolyon Maugham and the Lib Dems and Labour MPs who want to overturn the referendum result in much the same way as Ireland's was reversed after threats from a French midget.
But there are lots of others unhappy with the result who just get on with it.
Like this crowd.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...arch-centre-115-milliom-vote-of-a7552541.html


----------



## Firefly (30 Jan 2017)

100 jobs coming, but from the same article 900 going. How are the apples looking?

From the same article:

_The European Medicines Agency, a body based in London and responsible for the scientific evaluation and safety monitoring of medicines, warned it is likely to leave after Brexit.

Mr Thomsen told the BBC: “We are very happy with the way the European Medicines Agency has worked and everybody is disappointed that it is likely it will have to leave the UK. We hope as many of the current *900* staff as possible will follow it to its new home in the EU as it is in everyone’s interest that there is as little disruption as possible for the journey of new medicines to patients.”_


----------



## Firefly (30 Jan 2017)

Firefly said:


> The US has a huge internal market. Slashing corporation taxes to being 100,000 jobs home could be like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Billions of dollars less in taxation revenue to increase employment by about .5%...



Ditto for the UK - cutting corporation tax isn't easy and if it was shouldn't it have been done already?

_The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, floated the idea that taxes could be chopped to bring more business to the UK if negotiations with the European Union turned sour.
But analysts think such a move would be prohibitively expensive at a time when the UK government is still running a large budget deficit.
Martin Beck at Oxford Economics said: “If you look at countries like Ireland or Singapore, they didn’t have anything to lose when embarked on that policy. But for the UK when you’re raising almost £50bn per year from corporation tax, it is much more costly.”_

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/29/uk-cant-afford-tax-cuts-attract-firms-brexit/


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## Firefly (30 Jan 2017)

Looks like the EU is a bigger trading partner than some would suggest, particularly for urban areas..

_A report from the Centre for Cities think tank found that 46 per cent of exports from the country’s urban areas are sent to the EU, three times more than to the US and 11 times more than to China.

To offset a 10 per cent drop in EU exports, the UK would have to almost double its exports to China or increase those to the US by a third, the think tank concluded._

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...es-european-union-deal-us-china-a7552791.html

Of course there is nothing to suggest that exports to the US and China will increase at all.


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