# Housing and fake news



## cremeegg (3 Jan 2018)

There is a discussion on another thread about good and bad journalism, this set me thinking about the falsehoods that are accepted as facts about Ireland's economic situation.

Here is a fact that does not sit with the current narrative.

There are 41, 3 bedroom properties for sale in Dublin at present for less than €250,000. With a 10% deposit that represents less than €1,100 a month over 25 years.

Housing in Dublin is not unaffordable.


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## odyssey06 (3 Jan 2018)

I hardly think that = fake news.

It would be fake news to say that there are X number of houses, when there aren't...

I would wonder how many of those houses need another 50k - 100k for renovations, for example.
41 properties for a city with a population of hundreds of thousands doesn't suggest an abundance of affordable housing.

When I hear people claim there are X number of vacant properties in the country, solely on the basis that they didn't return a census form, that to me is fake news.


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## Sanparom (3 Jan 2018)

I disagree. For what you get, it is unaffordable. Many people (if not most) would not want to live in those properties or the areas they're in. For what they are, they are actually seriously overpriced. A dump of a house in Finglas or Clondalkin for 250k? Nowhere near a bargain.


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## dub_nerd (3 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> There are 41, 3 bedroom properties for sale in Dublin at present for less than €250,000. With a 10% deposit that represents less than €1,100 a month over 25 years.
> 
> Housing in Dublin is not unaffordable.



The statement on its own doesn't mean anything. Affordability is relative to income. €1,100 a month could be two thirds of before tax income for someone on minimum wage.

Also not all houses are equal. €250k represents different affordability if what you need is a 3-bed with off-road parking on Ailesbury Road and what you get is a 3-drawer cardboard filing cabinet on the side of the M50 with lousy neighbours.


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> Housing in Dublin is not unaffordable.





Sanparom said:


> Nowhere near a bargain.



Sanparom 

Cremeegg's point is that people who want to get on the housing ladder, can do so if they can save €25k

He has not said that they are good value. 

I have often debated this point on the radio when the Central Bank announces their updated rules. The others always say "The average house in Dublin is  €x so a buyer would need 10% x  to buy it"

I have to point out that the normal first time buyer does not buy the average house in Dublin. They buy a starter home and it might not be in Dublin. And then they trade up after a few years.   But I have often heard the point made in the papers and on the radio and it goes completely unchallenged.

Brendan


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## Sanparom (3 Jan 2018)

Brendan, 

I was once a first-time buyer. I would have loved to have been able to trade up, but I have been stuck, in the same place with a growing family and not a hope of going anywhere for the foreseeable (especially if house prices keep increasing). What I bought in 2005 is now not fit for purpose (raising children), but I am trapped. All the talk out there is always about first-time buyers and them needing to get on the property ladder, but what about those of us, whose ladder seems to stop forever on about step 2? There is rarely talk of us. Granted, I have a property and would make a scant profit if I were to sell (which we're going to have to do at some stage, but trying to find a way to do it is the problem), but then I need to find a 20% deposit from somewhere for a house which is suitable for a growing family. I think that it's foolish for any first-time buyer to buy a (below par in an undesirable area) property thinking that they will get to trade up in a few years. That, unfortunately, doesn't happen for everyone.


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## Purple (3 Jan 2018)

Sanparom said:


> I think that it's foolish for any first-time buyer to buy a (below par in an undesirable area) property thinking that they will get to trade up in a few years. That, unfortunately, doesn't happen for everyone.


I think that's a fair point.


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Jan 2018)

Hi San 

Agree that it's a risk.  But there is also the risk of staying out of the market and not being able to ever afford in these "below par in undesirable areas). 

The point is that people in Dublin can get on the housing ladder for €25k.  The media would lead you to believe that this was not possible.

Brendan


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## galway_blow_in (3 Jan 2018)

an example of fake news is that ireland is not a friendly place for tenants 

a housing shortage is an entirely different matter and a pressing one for those looking for a place to live in dublin or cork etc


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## cremeegg (3 Jan 2018)

Sanparom said:


> A dump of a house in Finglas or Clondalkin






dub_nerd said:


> if what you need is a 3-bed with off-road parking on Ailesbury Road




This is beyond parody


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## TheBigShort (3 Jan 2018)

Brendan Burgess said:


> I have to point out that the normal first time buyer does not buy the average house in Dublin. They buy a starter home and it might not be in Dublin. And then they trade up after a few years. But I have often heard the point made in the papers and on the radio and it goes completely unchallenged.



I have to say that this type of thinking is symptomatic of the type of thinking that led to the housing bubble in the first place. I do question the whole concept of a "starter" home in the first place. What is it supposed to mean? That it is not real home? Just somewhere to park while you save for a real home?

The concept of "affordable home" is also something that bugs me. It implies that all other house purchases are actually unaffordable, that they are over-priced....er,wait a second?


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## Sunny (3 Jan 2018)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Hi San
> 
> Agree that it's a risk.  But there is also the risk of staying out of the market and not being able to ever afford in these "below par in undesirable areas).
> 
> ...



Just because someone can technically get on the property ladder in Dublin by buying a property in an area that they have no interest in buying in does not prove that housing in Dublin is affordable. Are we really in a position of telling a young person working in Sandyford that they shouldn't complain as they can buy in Tallaght? So some houses on certain roads in certain areas are going for less than 250k. What exactly does that tell you apart from the fact that there is probably a very good reason why people don't want to live there. And that's not for snobby reasons. Nobody should be forced to buy in area that has serious social problems or is nowhere near where they work with rubbish transport just because the house is 'cheap'.  

Also the idea of starter homes and getting on the property ladder in fear of never being able to get on it is what got us in this mess.


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## cremeegg (3 Jan 2018)

Sunny said:


> Are we really in a position of telling a young person working in Sandyford that they shouldn't complain as they can buy in Tallaght?



Yes. And nothing wrong with that. According to google maps it is 12.6 km. 18 minutes by car, or 42 minutes by bike. 

To think that this is not a perfectly acceptable housing option for a young person working in Sandyford is ridiculous, and shows how completely out of touch with reality the debate around housing has become.


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Jan 2018)

Sunny said:


> Are we really in a position of telling a young person working in Sandyford that they shouldn't complain as they can buy in Tallaght?



I am astonished by this Sunny. 

We can't  have everyone living in Dublin 4.   I would guess that someone working in Sandyford but commuting from Portlaoise would love to live in Tallaght. 

Agree with cremeegg that some people are completely out of touch. 

Brendan


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## Sunny (3 Jan 2018)

Ok so Sandyford and Tallaght are not the best examples but the point still stands about people buying in areas where don't want to buy for whatever reason.  The point that 41 houses in the Dublin area are available for less than 250k as proof that housing in Dublin is affordable is completely ridiculous. All those houses are in very small pockets of Dublin. And sorry Brendan, but so is telling the media that housing is not unaffordable for first time buyers or many people stuck in unsuitable properties because they can just buy anywhere and anything and then trade up after a few years. So all is good then. No housing problems here folks. Making statements like that is as bad the media going on and on about how expensive houses are. Adds nothing to the discussion.


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## galway_blow_in (3 Jan 2018)

Sunny said:


> Just because someone can technically get on the property ladder in Dublin by buying a property in an area that they have no interest in buying in does not prove that housing in Dublin is affordable. Are we really in a position of telling a young person working in Sandyford that they shouldn't complain as they can buy in Tallaght? So some houses on certain roads in certain areas are going for less than 250k. What exactly does that tell you apart from the fact that there is probably a very good reason why people don't want to live there. And that's not for snobby reasons. Nobody should be forced to buy in area that has serious social problems or is nowhere near where they work with rubbish transport just because the house is 'cheap'.
> 
> Also the idea of starter homes and getting on the property ladder in fear of never being able to get on it is what got us in this mess.



sure tallaght is no journey from sandyford ?


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## elcato (3 Jan 2018)

Sanparom said:


> I was once a first-time buyer. I would have loved to have been able to trade up, but I have been stuck, in the same place with a growing family and not a hope of going anywhere for the foreseeable (especially if house prices keep increasing). What I bought in 2005 is now not fit for purpose (raising children), but I am trapped.


How is it not fit for purpose ? Just because the little dorlings don't have a room of their own does not make it unfit for purpose


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## Sanparom (3 Jan 2018)

It's a 2 bed duplex with no garden and a tiny kitchen and sitting-room. It is not where we would like to raise our family, but at the moment, like many other people, we don't have much choice. I'm not asking for much - just a bit more space and a garden so my boys can go outside and play football. There is no need for the sarcasm, elcato!


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## Purple (3 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> Yes. And nothing wrong with that. According to google maps it is 12.6 km. 18 minutes by car, or 42 minutes by bike.
> 
> To think that this is not a perfectly acceptable housing option for a young person working in Sandyford is ridiculous, and shows how completely out of touch with reality the debate around housing has become.


 Have you ever lived, or even spent an evening, in Fettercairn or Fortunestown? Try being an outsider and moving into the area. Try parking your car outside. It is not unreasonable for someone who is working and earning a reasonable income to aspire to a small house in an area which is not "socially deprived". 



Brendan Burgess said:


> We can't have everyone living in Dublin 4.


 That's right, because Fortunestown is just one step down the ladder from Donnybrook.



Brendan Burgess said:


> Agree with cremeegg that some people are completely out of touch.


 I agree, some people are.

If the discussion is about Housing and Fake News then any discussion about a solution which does not concentrate solely on supply side issues is bogus and any reporting of such proposals which do not eviscerate them is fake news.

Help to buy schemes, relaxations of Central Bank rules, tax breaks for buyers, Local Authorities buying any of the existing stock; any of these things being reported as helping the housing crisis in any was is fake news as all they do is a) throw more money are the same stock of homes and so push up prices or b) move the same people up and down the same queue.


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## odyssey06 (3 Jan 2018)

Headline: Housing Minister declares housing crisis over: "There are 41 3-bed affordable homes in Dublin."

When pressed the Minister continued: "No, I haven't actually looked at the homes to see where they are, why they are on the market at that price or whether they are in need of renovations, but I am confident this means my job is done."

That would be fake news.


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## Bronte (3 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> This is beyond parody


It's actually unbelievable.


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## cremeegg (3 Jan 2018)

Purple said:


> Have you ever lived, or even spent an evening, in Fettercairn or Fortunestown?



Never. I am almost totally unfamiliar with Dublin.

Of the 41 houses mentioned 1 is in Fortunestown, 1 in Fettercarin, both asking less than €190k. So 39, 3 bedroomed properties under €250k not in Fortunestown or Fettercairn.

If there is an antisocial behaviour issue in these or other areas, that is a policing issue, not a housing issue.

Perhaps these areas are unliveable in I don't know, I have however been in many areas elsewhere in the country with bad reputations, and they all contain lots of perfectly normal people living perfectly normal lives. They ignore those neighbours who are difficult to live with as best they can. But such neighbours can be found anywhere. I know of two cases of people being jailed for harassing neighbours, both in middle class areas.

I suspect the "dump in Finglas" mentality is another manifestation of people being influenced by a small number of cases which receive disproportionate publicity. Fake news in fact.


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## odyssey06 (3 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> Never. I am almost totally unfamiliar with Dublin.
> Of the 41 houses mentioned 1 is in Fortunestown, 1 in Fettercarin, both asking less than €190k. So 39, 3 bedroomed properties under €250k not in Fortunestown or Fettercairn.
> If there is an antisocial behaviour issue in these or other areas, that is a policing issue, not a housing issue.



That's a lot of "suspicions", "ifs" and "unfamiliarity" for someone so sure their stats shows there is no issue with affordability in Dublin...
There's a reason they are on the market at that price.
My suspicion is that those 41 properties are all dumps that no reasonable person would want to pay their own money for.
If any of them arent dumps they will sell for a lot more than their asking price.
I say that with as much justification as you seem to think they represent the solution to affordable homes in Dublin.

If someone can tell me they bought a similar property, in one of the areas listed, and they are not from the area, and things have worked out well - well that's something I give credence to. I don't put any stock in any of your suspicions.
I say that as a Dubliner who knows there are places in Dublin you don't buy and move into, unless you want a world of hassle and stress. And no, I don't mean everywhere outside D4.

Maybe Dublin properties are affordable, but you'll need a lot more to back it up with that that.

So, I'm labeling the declaration that those 41 properties means there's no affordability issues with Dublin housing as "fake news".


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## dub_nerd (3 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> If there is an antisocial behaviour issue in these or other areas, that is a policing issue, not a housing issue.



Yep, never mind those boarded up windows. It a "policing issue".


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## Sarenco (3 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> There are 41, 3 bedroom properties for sale in Dublin at present for less than €250,000. With a 10% deposit that represents less than €1,100 a month over 25 years.
> 
> Housing in Dublin is not unaffordable.


Sorry Cremeegg but you really can't draw any conclusions about affordability from a tiny sample size of advertised properties for sale without knowing anything about the disposable incomes or savings of the would be purchasers of those properties.  Frankly, it's a ridiculous assertion. 

A €25k deposit would be an unimaginable fortune for a very significant proportion of our capital's population.

Here's a (somewhat) more rigorous comparative analysis that suggests that residential property in Dublin is "seriously unaffordable" relative to median incomes -
http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf


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## cremeegg (3 Jan 2018)

Sarenco said:


> Sorry Cremeegg but you really can't draw any conclusions about affordability from a tiny sample size of advertised properties for sale without knowing anything about the disposable incomes or savings of the would be purchasers of those properties.



These are 3 bedroomed properties, suitable for families. Some posters suggest that they are in such bad areas that they are uninhabitable. I am not qualified to contradict that, but I am not convinced. 


Sarenco said:


> A €25k deposit would be an unimaginable fortune for a very significant proportion of our capital's population.



Of course it would. I am not suggesting that everyone can afford a family home.  What I am suggesting is that there are properties available suitable for families at prices which are within reach of a family with a joint income of say €40k

It is also Avery quiet time of year for estate agents I suggest when there has been time to get photos etc after Christmas the number may be substantially higher.


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## cremeegg (3 Jan 2018)

Sarenco,

I got as far as the subtitle of that report “ rating middle-income housing affordability”

Seems Everyone wants to live in Donnybrook. 

I will read it tomorrow.


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## Sarenco (3 Jan 2018)

@cremeegg

The report that I posted suggested that median house prices in Dublin were selling at a multiple of 4.7 times median incomes in 2016.  That is unaffordable (whatever about "seriously" unaffordable) by any reasonable measure.

Whether estate agents are busy or quiet at this time of year is completely irrelevant.

I happen to agree with you that media reporting on housing issues often borders on hysterical. 

However, to argue that housing in Dublin is affordable on the basis of the price of 40 advertised properties in a city of Dublin's size, and nothing more, is just silly.


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## odyssey06 (3 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> Sarenco,
> 
> I got as far as the subtitle of that report “ rating middle-income housing affordability”
> 
> ...



Middle income people dont buy in Donnybrook. The issue is whether they can buy afford to buy houses in areas other than the most expensive areas in the country or the worst areas of the city.


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## Purple (4 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> Never. I am almost totally unfamiliar with Dublin.


The next time you are in Dublin take a walk around west Finglas or Fortunestown or Fettercairn or Jobstown at 10.30 on a Friday or Saturday night.


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## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

Purple said:


> The next time you are in Dublin take a walk around west Finglas or Fortunestown or Fettercairn or Jobstown at 10.30 on a Friday or Saturday night.



I agree that nobody would want to live in Finglas if they could help it.

Are the following bad areas?

*Walkinstown 295K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-fo...kinstown-crescent-walkinstown-dublin-1623428/

*Drimnagh 230K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/drimnagh/244-kilworth-road-drimnagh-dublin-1623425/

*Clonsilla 285K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/clonsilla/1-barnwell-green-clonsilla-dublin-1614327/

*Swords 275K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/duplexes-for-sale/swords/30-boroimhe-alder-swords-dublin-1613798/

*280K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/swords/22-castle-grove-swords-dublin-1616169/

*Whitehall 295K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/whitehall/249-larkhill-road-whitehall-dublin-1619697/

*Tallaght 250K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-fo...on-avenue-ballycragh-tallaght-dublin-1601714/

*265K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/whitehall/249-larkhill-road-whitehall-dublin-1619697/

*Raheny 275K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/raheny/143-edenmore-avenue-raheny-dublin-1579548/

*Tyrrelstown 260K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-fo...unt-garrett-grove-tyrrelstown-dublin-1343672/

*Castleknock 285K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/castleknock/16-fernleigh-drive-castleknock-dublin-1536292/

*Lucan 290K*

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/castleknock/16-fernleigh-drive-castleknock-dublin-1536292/


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## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> These are 3 bedroomed properties, suitable for families. Some posters suggest that they are in such bad areas that they are uninhabitable. I am not qualified to contradict that, but I am not convinced.
> .



Those posters should name the bad areas.  I do get there are bad areas.  But there is a load of nonsense on this thread. 

And I do know a bit about Dublin.  The list of houses I put up - two of the areas I know very well.  But I will agree they are not Ballsbridge. (Ballsbridge being ridiculous priced, overcrowded, you can't get parking and there isn't space to swing a cat unless you're the type that can buy on a salary of a superstar).  But neither are they Finglas.  There is nothing at all wrong with the places I put up.  The only other dodgy one might be Tallaght.  But I'll wait for the Dubs to tell me what is wrong with each of the places I put up.  I suspect there is a whole heap of snobbery going on here. 

Castleknock, Swords, Tallaght, Walkinstown, Tyrrelstown, etc. I think the other posters should tell us for each of the areas I put up what is wrong with them.


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## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> If someone can tell me they bought a similar property, in one of the areas listed, and they are not from the area, and things have worked out well - well that's something I give credence to. I don't put any stock in any of your suspicions.
> I say that as a Dubliner who knows there are places in Dublin you don't buy and move into, unless you want a world of hassle and stress. And no, I don't mean everywhere outside D4.
> 
> .



Name the areas that are good and bad in Dublin then.  Name where you consider a no go area.


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## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

The Whitehall one is already 45k over the €250,000 figure quoted at the outset... and it is a 2 bed house.
If it was a 3 bed house in that area you can add at least another €50,000 to that price.
I would expect that particular property to sell for > €300,000.

Edenmore historically had a rough reputation, it was a 'corporation area'.
I think it has started to settle down in recent years but I don't know the specific roads well enough.
Again, that property is 25k higher than the €250,000 figure quoted earlier and realistically we could expect it to sell for more if people have had a good look at it and the road seems nice and property doesn't need much work.

I think we need to come up with a figure for what is internationally considered affordable based on median salary in comparison to property price, and look at some new builds also. A small sample size of existing properties in different areas, of unknown condition inside is not reliable to assess affordability.


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## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> The Whitehall one is already 45k over the €250,000 figure quoted at the outset... and it is a 2 bed house.
> If it was a 3 bed house in that area you can add at least another €50,000 to that price.
> I would expect that particular property to sell for > €300,000.
> 
> ...




You're being very vague now.  Can you copy paste my post and say per area if they are ok or not and why not.  And while you're at it please explain to me how the houses I put up are unaffordable when I checked the rents of three beds and found the following:

*Rents*

Lucan from 1650 to 2250 a month
Tallaght 2000 a month
Raheny 2300 a month

*Dumps*

The word dump has been bandied about on this thread. I know people who lived in corporation houses, I know parts of cities which were once corporation as I purchased one once and my husband was so embarresed he told me not to tell anyone.  Until I renovated it and sold it. That area is now considered very desirable - and it's not the only one.  I also know parts of the center of Dublin as I had relations that lived there, I know it's considered by some to be a no go area but it's all a perception.  Sure there are certain pockets or streets, but it's amazing to me how people only look at what they think they know.


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## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

For comparison, new build 3 beds in Clongriffin area, an area of mixed reputation, are going for €350,000.
Is that affordable?


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## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

dub_nerd said:


> Yep, never mind those boarded up windows. It a "policing issue".



Totally agree straight away with that being a no go area. You don't just need the boarded up windows but white van also tells us a lot.  Conversly I have a tenant in a nice three bed house in a city, my previous family home, the tenant has a white van in the front of the house on the grass and I believe he's got someone living in it.  But I can't prove it.  But it's a nice estate all the same. (Well settled, teachers, esb workers etc but also many rented houses as well as every second house having a flat let out, from converted garages).    And 15 minutes walk into town.  We were told not to purchase it as the houses had issues with subsidence, which they did.  But that was all done and dusted by the time we purchases but the 'reputation' lived on.  My sister in law bought a tiny house in a better area and she's no garden to speak off, the house is dark, poky etc, and 5 minutes away from my house.


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## Sanparom (4 Jan 2018)

Bronte,

you are right - some of the areas you listed are fine, but the houses themselves are still overpriced. I wouldn't touch Tyrellstown with a barge pole (far too rough, lots of drugs, stabbings etc). Whitehall is fine, but like the other poster said, houses go for a lot above the asking price there. 

It comes down to this - regardless of area, houses in Dublin are all overpriced. It's getting out of hand again.


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## Sanparom (4 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> For comparison, new build 3 beds in Clongriffin area, an area of mixed reputation, are going for €350,000.
> Is that affordable?



It's not. I can tell you that from experience!


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## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> You're being very vague now.  Can you copy paste my post and say per area if they are ok or not and why not.  And while you're at it please explain to me how the houses I put up are unaffordable when I checked the rents of three beds and found the following:



I'm not the one pushing the fake news theory because of a small sample size of properties.
Almost all the properties you listed are higher than €250,000 ... why are the goalposts shifting?
You have offered nothing in support to justify €250,000 to €300,000 as being affordable, even if we agreed on the properties being ok - which we don't.

The onus is on the side arguing these properties mean the affordability crisis is fake news to prove their point.
The information provided in support of this is vague, it uses an unreliable sample size of properties of unknown condition.
Then you respond that I am being vague?


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## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> For comparison, new build 3 beds in Clongriffin area, an area of mixed reputation, are going for €350,000.
> Is that affordable?



How much rent would the person be paying now and how much would a morgage on that cost.  You've still not pointed out which of the ones I've listed are undesirable.  Any of my three beds in Swords perhaps?  Is there something undesirable about Swords?


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## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

Sanparom said:


> It's not. I can tell you that from experience!



Can you give us the figures please.

I checked Ulster bank mortgages. 

If you want to purchase a 300K house and you've 30K deposit there's a 4 year fix of 2.99% and it will cost 1136€.  That's for a 30 year mortgage.


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## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> How much rent would the person be paying now and how much would a morgage on that cost.  You've still not pointed out which of the ones I've listed are undesirable.  Any of my three beds in Swords perhaps?  Is there something undesirable about Swords?



No, you tell me why they are desirable and affordabke even though they are above the €250,000 figure which prompted this thread.

Furthermore, for a city the size of Dublin we are talking about a very small number of properties which may or may not be affordable, and which may or may not be ok to live in... Does that not suggest something to you???
If someone buys the house in Edenmore or Raheny, does that mean there isn't a single property in Dublin 5 left that's affordable - we're not talking Ballsbridge here!


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## Sanparom (4 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> Can you give us the figures please.
> 
> I checked Ulster bank mortgages.
> 
> If you want to purchase a 300K house and you've 30K deposit there's a 4 year fix of 2.99% and it will cost 1136€.  That's for a 30 year mortgage.



I said that because I have extensive personal experience of the area. I do not believe the houses are worth that amount of money.


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## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

Sanparom said:


> I said that because I have extensive personal experience of the area. I do not believe the houses are worth that amount of money.



Is this not a different issue then.  You believe property is overpriced so you are ruling it out.  That is nothing then to do with affordability. I'm not sure which area in particular you are referring to. 

I think Ballsbridge is over priced and I wouldn't purchase there.  If I were to live in Dublin I'd like Malahide.  But if I couldn't afford it I'd buy a dump of a terraced house in the inner city and do it up.  With on street parking and loads of space internally.  And they exist as I know they do.


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## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> No, you tell me why they are desirable and affordabke even though they are above the €250,000 figure which prompted this thread.
> 
> Furthermore, for a city the size of Dublin we are talking about a very small number of properties which may or may not be affordable, and which may or may not be ok to live in... Does that not suggest something to you???
> If someone buys the house in Edenmore or Raheny, does that mean there isn't a single property in Dublin 5 left that's affordable - we're not talking Ballsbridge here!



So you the Dublin based poster wants me to tell you which are desirable and affordable.  But

a) I've put up a variety of fine areas
b) You've not demonstrated that each of those areas is a no go
c) Now you want me to do this
d) I've demonstrated they are affordable based on a mortgage of 270K on a property of 300K with a deposit of 30K.  Especially when you compare the rents - it's a no brainer
e) In addition most are three beds and a couple can rent two rooms out at the beginning if they need help or want to have extra money
f) Raheny, is that one ok or not, I'm not sure your point.


----------



## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> Can you give us the figures please.
> I checked Ulster bank mortgages.
> If you want to purchase a 300K house and you've 30K deposit there's a 4 year fix of 2.99% and it will cost 1136€.  That's for a 30 year mortgage.



So you would have to have an income of nearly €80,000 to get that mortgage (based on 270,000 divided by 3.5).
That's more than twice the average industrial wage.
Is that affordable? No.

Only the top 30% of households have a gross income of more than €70,000 per annum.
http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/high-earner-ireland-755580-Jan2013/


----------



## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> So you the Dublin based poster wants me to tell you which are desirable and affordable.  But
> 
> a) I've put up a variety of fine areas
> b) You've not demonstrated that each of those areas is a no go
> ...



A, B and C are rejected as you have not demonstrated they are fine areas. Declaring them as such does not make it so. Some of them may be ok but almost all are in excess of the 250k figure which started this thread. It's your list not mine so the onus is on you to show why they are in fact fine.
D) They are not affordable based on average industrial wage.
E) The thread was started about 3 bed houses.
F) I don't know it's is ok, you tell me. Have you been to that road?


----------



## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> A, B and C are rejected as you have not demonstrated they are fine areas. Declaring them as such does not make it so. Some of them may be ok but almost all are in excess of the 250k figure which started this thread.
> D) They are not affordable based on average industrial wage.
> E) The thread was started about 3 bed houses.
> F) I don't know it's is ok, you tell me. Have you been to that road?



How are people affording rents so?  And why does a family of two adults and one or two children need a three bedroom house exactly?  Especially if it's two boys or two girls.

Anyway you want something under 250K, here's one

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-fo...rtello-road-balbriggan-dublin-1534102/#img=19

It's a grand three bed, very spacious and turn key.  If you want a garden convert the yard back into grass.  Street looks nice and clean too.  It's not beautiful on the outside is all that's displeasing.  And 225K !!

If you want outside pretty how about this one:

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-fo...nt-rochford-avenue-balbriggan-dublin-1619112/

Or this one in Clonsilla, no work needed:

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/clonsilla/33-huntstown-court-clonsilla-dublin-1462752/


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## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

Balbriggan is north county Dublin. 
You can add another 10 grand a year to your expenses either in car or buying a train ticket if you are commuting from there you may as well be in Meath, Kildare or Louth so you may as well shift the goalposts again and find a lovely 2 bed in Laytown to prove that Dublin doesn't have an affordability issue.


----------



## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

Sunny said:


> Ok so Sandyford and Tallaght are not the best examples but the point still stands about people buying in areas where don't want to buy for whatever reason.  .



No the point does not stand.  The idea that people can dismiss all areas for any reasons doesn't stand up to scrutiny when tested.  Dublin has public transport.  There are thousands of people clogging up the roads every day heading to Dublin because they want to live in green leafy brand new houses elsewhere and won't accept living in a not so nice house in Dublin even though they are spending much of the week in their cars and their children don't see them hardly and everybody spends the weekends sleeping.


----------



## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> How are people affording rents so?



Well, a lot of people aren't. For most of those who are, they appear to be exceeding what would be permitted under Central Bank limits in terms of salary per housing costs.

The Central Bank limits is 3.5 times salary to cope with stress testing. 
If you think that should be changed, please demonstrate why.

If there's another crash, rents will come crashing down with it.
If interest rates rise, so will mortgage repayments.


----------



## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> Balbriggan is north county Dublin.
> You can add another 10 grand a year to your expenses either in car or buying a train ticket if you are commuting from there you may as well be in Meath, Kildare or Louth so you may as well shift the goalposts again and find a lovely 2 bed in Laytown to prove that Dublin doesn't have an affordability issue.



Well ditch the car and buy a dearer house.  I hadn't realised an annual train ticket is 10K. That's pretty hefty.  Isn't a play like Maynooth pretty close to Dublin, is that not more affordable and doable?


----------



## Bronte (4 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> Well, a lot of people aren't. For most of those who are, they appear to be exceeding what would be permitted under Central Bank limits in terms of salary per housing costs.
> 
> The Central Bank limits is 3.5 times salary to cope with stress testing.
> If you think that should be changed, please demonstrate why.
> ...



Well if you think that is going to happen don't buy.  I really wish some of the posters on this thread, who are looking at properties would really tell us where they want to buy and what they are looking at and why.  With figures. 

Salary, deposit, current rent, size of family, location renting currently, location working, location would ideally like to buy in.


----------



## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> No the point does not stand.  The idea that people can dismiss all areas for any reasons doesn't stand up to scrutiny when tested.  Dublin has public transport.  There are thousands of people clogging up the roads every day heading to Dublin because they want to live in green leafy brand new houses elsewhere and won't accept living in a not so nice house in Dublin even though they are spending much of the week in their cars and their children don't see them hardly and everybody spends the weekends sleeping.



There aren't even enough houses in the not so nice areas to house the people currently in the commuter belt... that's why people are having to buy in the commuter belt.
And they are putting up with inadequate train and bus networks which can barely cope with current demands, ditto for a clogged motorway network. The rail network couldn't cope with a surge in commuters.

And oops, that should have read 1000 a year for train ticket, I meant 10 - 20k over the lifetime of the mortgage.


----------



## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> Well if you think that is going to happen don't buy.  I really wish some of the posters on this thread, who are looking at properties would really tell us where they want to buy and what they are looking at and why.  With figures.



If you can't afford the mortgage under stress conditions, you can't afford the mortgage. 
Not so much don't buy, as can't buy.


----------



## Sarenco (4 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> I think we need to come up with a figure for what is internationally considered affordable based on median salary in comparison to property price


The report that I linked to earlier in the thread suggests that housing affordability should be assessed in accordance with the following median multiples (median multiple: median house price divided by median household income) -

*Affordable    3.0 & Under
Moderately Unaffordable    3.1 to 4.0
Seriously Unaffordable    4.1 to 5.0
Severely Unaffordable    5.1 & Over*​
Historically in Ireland median house prices ranged between 2.0 – 3.0 times median household incomes.

The report suggests that the median multiples of house prices in Dublin reached a seriously unaffordable 4.7 in 2016, up from 3.3 in 2011.

I suspect median Dublin house prices moved into the severely unaffordable range in 2017.


----------



## cremeegg (4 Jan 2018)

Sarenco said:


> Historically in Ireland median house prices ranged between 2.0 – 3.0 times median household incomes.




Does that report make any allowance for mortgage interest rates.

The affordability of a loan of €100k at 2.9% is a very different matter from a loan at 5% or 6%. Or closer to 10% as they sometimes were "historically in Ireland"

How does it address double income couples.

A loan of 4.7 times a single income may be more affordable to a double income family than a loan of 3 times a single income to a single income family.


----------



## Sarenco (4 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> Does that report make any allowance for mortgage interest rates.


No, it's a simple price to income ratio.

Here's what the report has to say about interest rates:

_"More elaborate indicators, which often mix housing affordability and mortgage affordability can mask the structural elements of house pricing and are often not well understood outside the financial sector. The mixed indicators provide only a "snapshot," because interest rates can vary over the term of a mortgage; however the price paid for the house does not."_

Make of that what you will.


cremeegg said:


> How does it address double income couples.


The median multiples in the report reflect median house prices divided by median household income.

I don't want to give the impression that I think the analysis in the report is perfect by any means.  However, it is infinitely more robust than randomly picking 40 advertised houses for sale and then simply declaring that house prices in Dublin are affordable.  That makes no sense.


----------



## dereko1969 (4 Jan 2018)

The annual train ticket from Balbriggan is €1540, most employers facilitate the Taxsaver Scheme so the cost to user will be closer to €750 or €14.50 a week for higher taxpayers.


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## Purple (4 Jan 2018)

dereko1969 said:


> The annual train ticket from Balbriggan is €1540, most employers facilitate the Taxsaver Scheme so the cost to user will be closer to €750 or €14.50 a week for higher taxpayers.


Some employers do, some don't. Would a family buying a starter home in Balbriggan be on the higher marginal tax rate?


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## cremeegg (4 Jan 2018)

Sarenco said:


> I don't want to give the impression that I think the analysis in the report is perfect by any means.  However, it is infinitely more robust than randomly picking 40 advertised houses for sale and then simply declaring that house prices in Dublin are affordable.  That makes no sense.



I did not pick a sample. I defined criteria, a three bed property, in the numbered Dublin post codes, advertised for sale at €250,000 or below. Then I looked on Daft to see if there were any such properties advertised. I found 41. Given the media narrative in this area I was surprised to find any. I suspect that if i repeat the exercise in a few weeks, after the Christmas lull, I will find a larger number

Certainly this does not establish that house prices in Dublin are affordable. It does however, in my opinion, contradict the prevailing narrative. It shows that there some 3 bedroom properties available that would be affordable, not to an unemployed person on €201 a week, but to a couple in employment on modest incomes.

Many of the responses have been to rubbish my post by reference to "dumps in finglas" or the impossibility of living in Tallaght while working in Sandyford.

As to the broader issue of median income and housing. I suggest the best question is what type of housing is available to buyers with the median income, and where is it located.


----------



## The Horseman (4 Jan 2018)

I have been looking at this discussion from the sideline and thought I would put my views on the matter for consideration.

We have some people (and I stress some and not all) who feel they can't afford to purchase a house. It would appear to me that people can't afford to buy where they want rather than were they can afford. A lot of people would probably like to live in a nicer house, bigger house, closer to family etc. Unfortunately, life is not like that, you have to live within your means.

On a personal level I started working and saving when I was thirteen. Have worked all my life. Bought my first home when I was twenty seven, had no new furniture for 3 years, house was a small two bed with no central heating, no kitchen, no shower, no washing machine or cooker. I had hand me down furniture for years. (it should be noted that my brother had a similar experience). I have since moved to a three bed property where I had to start again in terms of modernizing same.

Our perception seems to have changed, gone it appears are the days were people were willing to start out like the above and work towards what they want. We want everything now and if we can't get it then its society's fault.

Perhaps one of the main issues we have with the general property sector/market is the lack of competition in the banking sector coupled with our refusal to allow for normal repossessions. Also, our Govt intervention in the rental sector via its various schemes of HAP, RAS etc is distorting the market even further.


----------



## Delboy (4 Jan 2018)

If only that this was fake news!

http://www.thejournal.ie/gresham-hotel-homeless-families-3781001-Jan2018/


> The Dublin Regional Homeless Executive – which manages homelessness services across the four Dublin local authorities – was advised last month by the owners of the Gresham Hotel that it would no longer be accepting homeless families or individuals.
> 
> The Gresham has previously been paid by Dublin City Council to temporarily accommodate homeless families over the past number of years.
> 
> ...


----------



## odyssey06 (4 Jan 2018)

The Horseman said:


> Bought my first home when I was twenty seven, had no new furniture for 3 years, house was a small two bed with no central heating, no kitchen, no shower, no washing machine or cooker. I had hand me down furniture for years. (it should be noted that my brother had a similar experience).



It would be an interesting experiment if you could assess the value of that property now versus your inflation adjusted income over that period and determine if it would have been affordable to a version of you from a later generation looking to start out in 2017.

My parents would have done the same as you and there's zero chance they would be able to afford the house they bought with a comparable current income, even at the very bottom of a property recession.

You also had the opportunity - I'm assuming you were living at home between 13 and 27 - of biding your time to buy the property.

Maybe the perception of starting from the bottom has changed because it's not as viable a strategy as it once was.


----------



## LS400 (4 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> There are 41, 3 bedroom properties for sale in Dublin at present for less than €250,000. With a 10% deposit that represents less than €1,100 a month over 25 years.
> 
> Housing in Dublin is not unaffordable.



I must be reading this wrong, the majority of Dublin is completely un-affordable to the average Joe/Mary.
If this statement was applicable to the Aran Islands, it would have some merit.

40 houses in the whole of Dublin under a quarter of a million Euros, and you say we dont have a problem, are you trying to be funny or are you just seeking Trump attention..

Like some posters here, Had I not bought years ago, I would not be able to afford the property im in now, only I sought other investments out years ago, and this area in on Brontes list of "affordable areas". 

I was in EBS the other day with a view to opening another Account, I did mention I would like to take out another small Mortgage soon, They dont do investment properties, I need to talk to one of the two main banks was the reply. A choice of two flamin banks to do business with, Ridiculous in a first world country. 


Were not as a Country able to manage a crisis, as has been proved time and time in the past, and i do fear for my kids when the time comes for them to fly the nest. This is not a dig at Ireland, but I do encourage them to see the world, and not to rule out laying roots down elsewhere.


----------



## Sarenco (4 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> I suggest the best question is what type of housing is available to buyers with the median income, and where is it located


Fair enough.

According to the report, the median household income in Dublin in 2016 was €58,400 and the median house price was €276,000. 

For reference, €58,400 (3) = €175,200.  Good luck finding a habitable family home at that price level anywhere in Dublin.

In any event, I think we can say with some confidence that median house prices increased at a greater rate than median household incomes in 2017.  Or to put it another way, houses in Dublin became less affordable over the course of 2017.


----------



## cremeegg (4 Jan 2018)

Sarenco said:


> According to the report, the median household income in Dublin in 2016 was €58,400 and the median house price was €276,000.



A household income of €58,400 should give approx. €43,800 after tax or €3,650 per month.

A mortgage of €248,400 is €1,200 per month at 3.2% with AIB.

That is almost precisely one third of the after tax income. High but not excessive.

I take the point that interest rates can vary over the term of the mortgage, but prices reflect current rates, and current affordability reflects current rates.


----------



## cremeegg (4 Jan 2018)

Delboy said:


> If only that this was fake news!
> 
> 
> The Dublin Regional Homeless Executive – which manages homelessness services across the four Dublin local authorities – was advised last month by the owners of the Gresham Hotel that it would no longer be accepting homeless families or individuals.
> ...



The fact that homeless families are being accommodated in the Gresham just shows how far from reality the entire situation is.


----------



## Sarenco (4 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> A household income of €58,400 should give approx. €43,800 after tax or €3,650 per month.
> 
> A mortgage of €248,400 is €1,200 per month at 3.2% with AIB.
> 
> That is almost precisely one third of the after tax income. High but not excessive.


Good stuff.  

So can we agree that a house price of €250k is at the limits of affordability for a household with a median income in Dublin?

Or to put it another way, a house priced above €250k would be unaffordable for 50% of households in Dublin on the basis of their household income.


----------



## cremeegg (4 Jan 2018)

Sarenco said:


> Good stuff.
> 
> So can we agree that a house price of €250k is at the limits of affordability for a household with a median income in Dublin?
> 
> Or to put it another way, a house priced above €250k would be unaffordable for 50% of households in Dublin on the basis of their household income.



A house priced at €276,000 with a 90% mortgage.

If we agree that then we are saying that, the median house, was affordable at the median household income, last year.

Which rather contradicts the media narrative


----------



## Sanparom (4 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> A household income of €58,400 should give approx. €43,800 after tax or €3,650 per month.



Your figures are off if you're talking about a public sector job. Have you taken USC/ pension levy etc into account? The real figure is more likely to be around the €3100 mark (if public sector).


----------



## Sarenco (4 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> If we agree that then we are saying that, the median house, was affordable at the median household income, last year.


Well, personally I think it would be more accurate to say that median house prices were moderately unaffordable, at the median household income, in 2016 (or, to use your phrase, "high but not excessive").

Did affordability at the median household income improve in 2017?

Would you have expected a household at close to the median household income to live in any of the 41 houses that you identified in your original search?

I certainly take the point that houses are still affordable in traditionally low-income neighbourhoods for median income households.  But what about households in the bottom 50% of the income spectrum?


----------



## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

dereko1969 said:


> The annual train ticket from Balbriggan is €1540, most employers facilitate the Taxsaver Scheme so the cost to user will be closer to €750 or €14.50 a week for higher taxpayers.


It's outrageous that other poster even brought it up at all in the context of paying mortgages of over one thousand. That and other things on this thread lead me to believe there is a load of nonsense being debated. Thank you for the correct figure. No idea but what is 14.50, three caffe lattes in Starbucks a week.

Any poster at all prepared to put up figures. Because you see all I can conclude is some people want it all. And are not willing to compromise.  And I met a lot if them during the Celtic tiger. Most memorable was the young lady wanted a brand new house, fully knitted out, the garden done too, the holidays etc and wouldn't countenance a second hand house even though financially it made more sense and little or no commuting time by comparison.  She thought I was nuts of course.


----------



## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> If you can't afford the mortgage under stress conditions, you can't afford the mortgage.
> Not so much don't buy, as can't buy.


Prove it with real figures. 

Don't know what you mean by stress, but buying a house is very stressful. In addition to being financially stressful.  Never met a person yet, in general, who didn't struggle in the early years to pay their mortgage.


----------



## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

Purple said:


> Some employers do, some don't. Would a family buying a starter home in Balbriggan be on the higher marginal tax rate?


Let's say you pay the full fare. If 30 euro is the deal breaker you shouldn't even be thinking of looking at a house.

Can't believe how many of you are on about the train costs. If that's an issue every worker should have zero travel costs.

Could someone tell me what is wrong with Balbriggan please.


----------



## odyssey06 (5 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> Prove it with real figures.
> Don't know what you mean by stress, but buying a house is very stressful. In addition to being financially stressful.  Never met a person yet, in general, who didn't struggle in the early years to pay their mortgage.



I don't have to prove anything. You are the one suggesting just because someone right now can afford a high level of rent, they can afford the mortgage on the property for the next 20 years, regardless of interest rates, or other economic stresses. I am pointing to central bank limits of 3.5 on salary and bank stress testing of ability to pay mortgage.

The other stress I'm talking about is the stress of buying in an around and being hounded by anti-social behaviour.


----------



## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

Ashbourne

Less than 200k

http://www.daft.ie/meath/houses-for-sale/ashbourne/24-baldara-court-ashbourne-meath-1483852/

Now here's a lovely one for 260k

http://www.daft.ie/meath/houses-for-sale/ashbourne/14-johnswood-park-ashbourne-meath-1550424/#img=1


----------



## odyssey06 (5 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> Let's say you pay the full fare. If 30 euro is the deal breaker you shouldn't even be thinking of looking at a house.
> 
> Can't believe how many of you are on about the train costs. If that's an issue every worker should have zero travel costs.
> 
> Could someone tell me what is wrong with Balbriggan please.



When people who live in the real world look at properties, one of the things they look at is the cost of coummuting.
The difference between living say in Raheny and Balbriggan and commuting in the city runs into thousands of euros over the course of a mortgage. At least that is what a prudent person would do.
Those kind of things matter when it comes to making things affordable, not the price of lattes in Starbucks.

If people on mid to high incomes are having to buy in Balbriggan or Ashbourne, with the attendant commuting costs, clearly the price of property in Dublin is not affordable.


----------



## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> I don't have to prove anything. You are the one suggesting just because someone right now can afford a high level of rent, they can afford the mortgage on the property for the next 20 years, regardless of interest rates, or other economic stresses. I am pointing to central bank limits of 3.5 on salary and bank stress testing of ability to pay mortgage.
> 
> The other stress I'm talking about is the stress of buying in an around and being hounded by anti-social behaviour.




You've demonstrated nothing to me. Zero figures, nonsense about a 30 euro train ticket and now red herrings about anti social behaviour.

Creme Egg and I have put up a load of grand houses. The truth is some people don't want to live in Tallaght and that's what this is about.


----------



## odyssey06 (5 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> Ashbourne
> 
> Less than 200k
> 
> ...



Ashbourne is not in Dublin!!!
Will you show Leitrim next? 

The cost and duration of commute doesn't matter!


----------



## odyssey06 (5 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> You've demonstrated nothing to me. Zero figures, nonsense about a 30 euro train ticket and now red herrings about anti social behaviour.
> 
> Creme Egg and I have put up a load of grand houses. The truth is some people don't want to live in Tallaght and that's what this is about.



You are the ones propsoing a theory. You have offered zero figures to support it. Zero. Just random properties you've never seen in your lives. That's not an argument.


----------



## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> Ashbourne is not in Dublin!!!
> Will you show Leitrim next?
> 
> The cost and duration of commute doesn't matter!



Look at this lovely one in Enfield for 235K

http://www.daft.ie/meath/houses-for-sale/enfield/12-coachyard-manor-enfield-meath-1570470/

Ok Odyssey how much and what duration of commuting is OK to you?


----------



## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> You are the ones propsoing a theory. You have offered zero figures to support it. Zero. Just random properties you've never seen in your lives. That's not an argument.



Now you see that's where you'd be wrong about me. True I don't know Dublin, but I did live there with my grandparents in the North inner city. I 'commuted' by walking 40 minutes each way daily and getting a bus out at the weekends that took half a day. I have an aunt who moved to Asbourne to live in the eighties. A sibling who lived in Enfield, a sibling who lived in Knocklyn (can't rember the name of that part of Dublin) etc.

I didn't bother to read that link of yours. You give me your desirable areas, name them, and I'll give you Ballsbridge teenagers who beat a lad to death outside a nightclub immediately.


----------



## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

cremeegg said:


> There is a discussion on another thread about good and bad journalism, this set me thinking about the falsehoods that are accepted as facts about Ireland's economic situation.
> 
> Here is a fact that does not sit with the current narrative.
> 
> ...



Bet you haven't changed your mind!! I have a bus driver renting from me, with four kids, he pays me 850 a month rent. One income. No idea how he does it, he's foreign, not that it matters. But to my amazement he told me he bought a house to rent out himself, in a cheater town than the city he rents in. To me they are poor but he's doing something about it and will eventually own his own house. But it's tough. I admire his gumption. (There's other stuff, as a landlord, I'm not going into, house is grand though)


----------



## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> Ashbourne is not in Dublin!!!
> Will you show Leitrim next?
> 
> The cost and duration of commute doesn't matter!



By the way, that comment of yours tells me a lot, the very idea you'd mention Leitrim at all shows where we are at. Everybody should be able to live near O'Connell street! And one of my siblings lived there too, near Supermacs, I was amazed to see a very large apartment complex in at the back there somewhere about 10 or so years ago.


----------



## odyssey06 (5 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> Look at this lovely one in Enfield for 235K
> 
> http://www.daft.ie/meath/houses-for-sale/enfield/12-coachyard-manor-enfield-meath-1570470/
> 
> Ok Odyssey how much and what duration of commuting is OK to you?



No, I am not getting into a game of whack a mole\property. You have zero grounds for claiming a property is grand or lovely unless you have some familiarity with the property or area.

A property in Enfield is (a) not in Dublin, (b) would require a mortgage of 200K and (c) would require a salary of approx 60k, which if you look at the 2016 figures for salaries in ireland, represents 1x average fulltime salary and 1x average parttime salary. This is a clear indication that properties *in Dublin* are not affordable.

The contention that random searches on DAFT for properties in a certain price range = affordability crisis is fake news is a proposition with zero merit, it is a false contention and is an argument that is not worthy of respect.
I have heard not a single thing in the entire course of this thread to convince me otherwise.

Frankly, throwing out random houses outside Dublin and saying commuting costs don't matter as a rebuttal... I don't know if this is a serious contention anymore.


----------



## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

Why does the house have to be in Dublin, depending where you work Enfield might be better.

Anyway now you’re saying 230 K is too much. I suggest then that indeed Leitrim would be best.

What your real argument is, is that people on 60k should be 3 entitled to purchase property that is in a desirable location, of a excellent standard right beside where they work at a very cheap price. You just won’t tell me where, what type and how much.

And I was in two different houses in Enfield!


----------



## The Horseman (5 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> It would be an interesting experiment if you could assess the value of that property now versus your inflation adjusted income over that period and determine if it would have been affordable to a version of you from a later generation looking to start out in 2017.
> 
> My parents would have done the same as you and there's zero chance they would be able to afford the house they bought with a comparable current income, even at the very bottom of a property recession.
> 
> ...




The property I bought would have been around 6 times the average industrial wage for the time. I had savings of a third of the purchase price of the property at the time. (Had no holidays, never bought designer cloth's, never bought fancy coffee's nor went out for meals etc had a cheap car etc for all the years to save same). You are right I did remain at home before purchasing the property.

If I were to purchase that property now in the same state as it was then (no heating etc) it would cost around 9 times the average industrial wage. it should be noted that there would in my view be two reasons why the property value increased, one would be the improved facilities in the area and two its location.

You did mention that your parents would not have been able to purchase the house they are in now, this is part of life, I now live on the same road I grew up on. I could not have afforded to live here when I purchased my first house. Had I not gone to college at 27 parttime while working fulltime I would not be able to live where I grew up. I have continued to obtain both academic and professional qualifications 20yrs after going to college for the first time.

As populations grow cities expand out, this is a fact of life and with this expansion those properties closer to the city increase in value automatically simply due to their proximity to the city and the improved infrastructure therein.

I have to disagree with you regarding the starting from the bottom perception. I still think people can start from the bottom and work up to what they want, I feel that people don't want to start from the bottom and want it all now rather than working for it.


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## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> You are the ones propsoing a theory. You have offered zero figures to support it. Zero. Just random properties you've never seen in your lives. That's not an argument.



I read that link now. Seriously are you suggesting that Balbriggan is not liveable in because of that article?  That’s ridiculous. You should check out Eyre Square in Galway of a Saturday night, McCurtain street in Cork likewise, or O’Connell street in Limerick. I’ll show you mahem and sometimes murder.


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## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

The Horseman said:


> The property I bought would have been around 6 times the average industrial wage for the time. I had savings of a third of the purchase price of the property at the time. (Had no holidays, never bought designer cloth's, never bought fancy coffee's nor went out for meals etc had a cheap car etc for all the years to save same). You are right I did remain at home before purchasing the property.
> 
> If I were to purchase that property now in the same state as it was then (no heating etc) it would cost around 9 times the average industrial wage. it should be noted that there would in my view be two reasons why the property value increased, one would be the improved facilities in the area and two its location.
> 
> ...



The first thing I did when we purchased our home was go and buy seven beds and rent it out for the summer. We had a cheap wedding, no engagement ring, three days ‘honeymoon’ in Ireland. I lied to the credit union to get part of the deposit. My husband moved into the garage for the two summer months. I put up a curtain up over the garage door. Luckily there was a toilet in there. I moved in to work with my mother in her B&B for the duration. I did not live with my parents since I was 20 other than for the B&B later. Like you I educated myself. Zero holidays and no car until I moved abroad. It was very very stressful financially. Happily we did have central heating. Everything in it was second hand, purchased from the small ads. Had a green belling cooker for 40 IEP, guy who sold it to me had it out the shed and hooked it up to the lightbulb to prove to me it worked.


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## Purple (5 Jan 2018)

Bronte said:


> The first thing I did when we purchased our home was go and buy seven beds and rent it out for the summer. We had a cheap wedding, no engagement ring, three days ‘honeymoon’ in Ireland. I lied to the credit union to get part of the deposit. My husband moved into the garage for the two summer months. I put up a curtain up over the garage door. Luckily there was a toilet in there. I moved in to work with my mother in her B&B for the duration. I did not live with my parents since I was 20 other than for the B&B later. Like you I educated myself. Zero holidays and no car until I moved abroad. It was very very stressful financially. Happily we did have central heating. Everything in it was second hand, purchased from the small ads. Had a green belling cooker for 40 IEP, guy who sold it to me had it out the shed and hooked it up to the lightbulb to prove to me it worked.


Most of us can tell those stories. I bought my first apartment at 23, two years after I qualified as a tradesman. I worked 7 days a week, had no car and didn't go on holidays. The up-side was it took my 15 minutes to cycle to work and I had no kids. That meant that while I worked 10-12 hours a day my short commute meant that my workday was the same length as someone who worked 8-10 hours a day but spent an hour getting to and from work. As I didn't have kids the lack of space and lack of facilities to dry clothes and minimal storage wasn't really a problem.
When you live far outside the city and far away from family raising children is much harder and much more expensive. They spend all day out of their home and the cost of childcare is higher because of the longer day the parents have. I don't see the same sense of entitlement among young people now that I saw in my own generation 15-20 years ago. My contemporaries wanted the show-house finish, the big TV's, the new cars and the holidays all at the same time. They are the ones who screwed things up by inflating the bubble, along with my parents generation who were in charge at the time and made sure that the later cuts effected them (and their pensions) least. 
It's a bit rich for anyone who now has a home, particularly if it was purchased pre-boom, to suggest that there is no housing shortage in Dublin. We bought high but inflation depreciated our mortgages in real terms. The massive wage increases during the boom also helped greatly. There's been no inflation or real wage increases for the best part of a decade and there won't be any for the foreseeable future. The young people looking to buy houses now are suffering due to the actions of their parents and particularly their grandparents, the worst generation in the history of the State. The last thing we should be doing is talking down to them because as a group they are better than us.


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## dereko1969 (5 Jan 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> When people who live in the real world look at properties, one of the things they look at is the cost of coummuting.
> The difference between living say in Raheny and Balbriggan and commuting in the city runs into thousands of euros over the course of a mortgage. At least that is what a prudent person would do.
> Those kind of things matter when it comes to making things affordable, not the price of lattes in Starbucks.
> 
> If people on mid to high incomes are having to buy in Balbriggan or Ashbourne, *with the attendant commuting costs*, clearly the price of property in Dublin is not affordable.





odyssey06 said:


> Ashbourne is not in Dublin!!!
> Will you show Leitrim next?
> 
> *The cost and duration of commute doesn't matter*!





odyssey06 said:


> No, I am not getting into a game of whack a mole\property. You have zero grounds for claiming a property is grand or lovely unless you have some familiarity with the property or area.
> 
> A property in Enfield is (a) not in Dublin, (b) would require a mortgage of 200K and (c) would require a salary of approx 60k, which if you look at the 2016 figures for salaries in ireland, represents 1x average fulltime salary and 1x average parttime salary. This is a clear indication that properties *in Dublin* are not affordable.
> 
> ...



There is very little difference in the cost of commuting by public transport from Balbriggan or Raheny, the same annual ticket works for both. And as pointed out is very good value. The same ticket also works as far as Maynooth, Hazelhatch, Sallins/Naas, Kilcock/Kilcoole and Bray. If you want to add Dublin Bus services on top it's not much more per annum and it ends up after tax being about an extra fiver a week.

Perhaps some research of your own might be worth your while?


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## Bronte (5 Jan 2018)

dereko1969 said:


> There is very little difference in the cost of commuting by public transport from Balbriggan or Raheny, the same annual ticket works for both. And as pointed out is very good value. The same ticket also works as far as Maynooth, Hazelhatch, Sallins/Naas, Kilcock/Kilcoole and Bray. If you want to add Dublin Bus services on top it's not much more per annum and it ends up after tax being about an extra fiver a week.
> 
> Perhaps some research of your own might be worth your while?


It’s not clear at all to me is the commuting the issue or the cost of it. Nor is it clear where posters are actually prepared to live and why.


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## dereko1969 (5 Jan 2018)

Yes it seems to be raging against the dying of the light......we want to live where we want at a price we think is affordable and with a garden and and and and ......


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## The Horseman (5 Jan 2018)

Purple said:


> Most of us can tell those stories. I bought my first apartment at 23, two years after I qualified as a tradesman. I worked 7 days a week, had no car and didn't go on holidays. The up-side was it took my 15 minutes to cycle to work and I had no kids. That meant that while I worked 10-12 hours a day my short commute meant that my workday was the same length as someone who worked 8-10 hours a day but spent an hour getting to and from work. As I didn't have kids the lack of space and lack of facilities to dry clothes and minimal storage wasn't really a problem.
> When you live far outside the city and far away from family raising children is much harder and much more expensive. They spend all day out of their home and the cost of childcare is higher because of the longer day the parents have. I don't see the same sense of entitlement among young people now that I saw in my own generation 15-20 years ago. My contemporaries wanted the show-house finish, the big TV's, the new cars and the holidays all at the same time. They are the ones who screwed things up by inflating the bubble, along with my parents generation who were in charge at the time and made sure that the later cuts effected them (and their pensions) least.
> It's a bit rich for anyone who now has a home, particularly if it was purchased pre-boom, to suggest that there is no housing shortage in Dublin. We bought high but inflation depreciated our mortgages in real terms. The massive wage increases during the boom also helped greatly. There's been no inflation or real wage increases for the best part of a decade and there won't be any for the foreseeable future. The young people looking to buy houses now are suffering due to the actions of their parents and particularly their grandparents, the worst generation in the history of the State. The last thing we should be doing is talking down to them because as a group they are better than us.



When you live outside the city the cost of property is much lower for a comparable house in or closer to the city. Your contemporaries did not understand the value of money nor were they educated by their parents of the risks involved with over stretching themselves. Your parents and their generation where not responsible for the problems as they were as you put it "in charge". You say that they protected themselves, on the contrary they were hit with for example the property tax. A tax based on the value of your property irrespective of your ability to either pay or for the services provided against same.  

When I purchased my first house interest rates were in double digit figs, income tax was crazy, etc. We currently have historically low interest rates. Inflation has reduced your real mortgage repayments but that has always been the case. 

I did not say there was no housing shortage in Dublin, there is but herein lies the crux of the matter, whether you accept it or not land is finite, we have the preconceived notion that all children should have their own bedrooms, we should all have a three/four bed semi with a garden in the front and back with a school, hospital, shops within walking distance (although why as most people I see will drive to a shop despite the fact they could walk just as fast). I shared a bedroom with my brother until I was 21 and it was only when he got married did I get my own bedroom.

I had done some calculations on mortgages as I have a niece who is looking to purchase. For a first time buyer looking to purchase a €250k with savings of €38k (needing a net mortgage of €212k) they need to have a gross household income of €60k. This figure for someone in their late twenties is not (both parties on €30k a year each) unrealistic.  

Before it is said who has €38k savings, again this is not an unrealistic fig to have in savings. Even if you are working for five years after finishing college each person should be able to save €19k over that five year period (this is only €73 a week in savings per person). If you are working and can't save this then you should and could not afford a mortgage.

The question I think that needs to be asked is if as people say property is overvalued then why are we not seeing loads of house building going on. A rational business person would say lets build property and sell it for a huge profit (as people assume supernormal profits exist in the market). I believe that this is not the case and that with what I consider overly burdensome regulations costs are increased simply because of that.


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## Firefly (5 Jan 2018)

Interesting thread. For what it's worth I think the only time buying houses was cheap was immediately after the introduction of the Euro when interest rates here plummeted. House prices soon caught up though. Apart from that buying a house was never cheap or easy. Sure there are super cheap houses but these are usually in bad areas and I can understand why anyone would want to avoid the worst of them

I would really question the comparision to the Average Wage though. Surely that would include students and part-time workers who may not even be looking to buy a house. I would be interested in the Median Wage for the age group trying to buy a house...probably those aged between 25-40 instead.

With this in mind I have to side with Bronte. There are a lot of houses available. Sure, they either need to be fixed up (where's the rush?) or may be are a little further out. But I think most couples who have steady jobs should be able to buy a starter home, save for 5 years or so and trade up.

I think it's unfair to stereotype all young people but I think a lot (not all!) of young people's expectations are too high. I wonder is it due to the fact that a lot of younger people spent some of their formative years (in their teens) prior to and during the Celtic Tiger. By contrast those of us a bit older had little at the same time.

I feel sorry for one poster who is stuck in a 2bed with children. We had a 1 bed in Dublin and thank our lucky stars we sold when we did.

I suppose, when buying any home the first question to ask is could I live here for the next 10 years.


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## Purple (5 Jan 2018)

The Horseman said:


> Your contemporaries did not understand the value of money nor were they educated by their parents of the risks involved with over stretching themselves. Your parents and their generation where not responsible for the problems as they were as you put it "in charge". You say that they protected themselves, on the contrary they were hit with for example the property tax. A tax based on the value of your property irrespective of your ability to either pay or for the services provided against same.


My contemporaries are the people in their mid 40's who fueled the last boom/bubble. My parents generation, those in their 70's, were in charge during the boom. They ran the Public Service, the Banks, The Government, the regulatory bodies, the construction companies, the Unions etc. during that time. They steered the ship onto the rocks. They oversaw the biggest transfer of wealth in the history of the State from their children to themselves. They not only maintained but increased pensions for themselves which their children would have to pay for but never enjoy. After the crash they increased taxes on their children to pay for those pensions, pensions which were left virtually untouched by the cuts. During their time in charge they squandered the windfall from the boom through gross incompetence and corruption. They couldn't have done a worse job if they tried. They betrayed their children and grandchildren and then talked down to them about how hard they had it, talking about themselves as the generation who built this country! As a group they are/were corrupt, incompetent, delusional fools. 



The Horseman said:


> The question I think that needs to be asked is if as people say property is overvalued then why are we not seeing loads of house building going on.


 Why? Try 40% of the building cost is taxes and levies, a legacy of corruption and incompetence in the construction and banking sector and 30 years of mind boggling incompetence by the State.  



The Horseman said:


> A rational business person would say lets build property and sell it for a huge profit (as people assume supernormal profits exist in the market). I believe that this is not the case and that with what I consider overly burdensome regulations costs are increased simply because of that.


 We build houses the same way we did 50 years ago. The whole sector is structurally not fit for purpose. The buyer should not have to subsidise that inefficiency.


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## Leo (5 Jan 2018)

Purple said:


> Why? Try 40% of the building cost is taxes and levies, a legacy of corruption and incompetence in the construction and banking sector and 30 years of mind boggling incompetence by the State.



Agreed, when Dublin Council state that it will cost them €330k per unit to build an apartment in a 61 unit social housing development excluding all land costs, it's clear our construction industry isn't capable of delivering much that could be sold at huge profits any longer.


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## dub_nerd (6 Jan 2018)

The median asking price of the 900 or so 3-bed Dublin houses on myhome.ie right now is €350k. (And the ones at that price don't look desirable to _me_, although that's clearly subjective).


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