# Key Post - Predicting the date of Irish Nationwide demutualisation



## Brendan Burgess

Updated 18 June 2006 after publication of the Bill 
Updated 9 July 2006 after the passing of the Bill. 
Updated 16 October 2006 
Updated 18 January 2007 

I have no idea what is happening. Everyone assumed that it would be done and dusted by now, but very little seems to be happening on the surface. They are doing a sellers' due diligence and that may have come up with some major skeleton. I have reported what I believe to be systematic overcharging to the Financial Regulator. If they are investigating this, it could take a long time to investigate, sort out and refund to customers. 

I am now guessing, and it is only a guess, that the D Day for qualification is September 2007.

Brendan
 
This is the sequence of events which must happen for the Society to demutualise. The timescales are my earliest estimates.


Step 1 The Society must design a conversion scheme and find a buyer - Say August 2006
As of October they are getting presentations from stockbrokers to appoint advisors on the scheme. Nothing else seem to have happened.

Step 2 The buyer must complete  a due diligence - Say September 2006 Say December 2006

Step 3 The Financial Regulator must approve the scheme -  Say October 2006 February 2007

*D day for qualification is probably around February 2005 . *The Society can then announce the scheme to the members. If you opened your account or took out your mortgage before February 2005, you should qualify.

Step 4 The members must meet to approve the takeover. Say November 2006. March 2007

Step 5 The Financial Regulator must approve the scheme. Members could object. 

Step 6 Members have 30 days to appeal to the High Court - December 2006 April 2007

Step 7 Cheques will be issued January 2007. May 2007




Brendan


----------



## Trier

6 Months Notice requirement
Rita (#12) under the title " makes the following submission ....

"First of all the Dáil must pass the legislation to allow another financial institution to buy the Irish Nationwide. Then potential buyers will want to conduct an investigation of the society’s books. Then, the Irish Nationwide will have to give the Central Bank *6 months notice* of its intention to demutualise. Then the conversion proposal will have to be put to members in a vote, and the members will have to approve the proposal. Then the High Court will have to approve if any members object."


Can anyone confirm whether this 6 months notice must be given prior to the issue of notice of resolution to savers to demutualise. If so then its a help towards reaching the 2 year requirement for holding a qualifying savings account in the Society.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Section 101(4) of the Building Societies Act:



> A Society...shall, at least 6 months prior to the date on which the conversion resolution is intended to be moved at a general meeting of members...advise the Financial Regulator of the intention to do so and shall consult with IFSRA as to the matters to be provided for in the conversin scheme.
> 
> 101(5)A conversion scheme...shall not be sent to the members unless the scheme has been approved by the Central Bank as meeting the requirements of this Part of the Act.



So if Fingleton has a buyer and scheme ready to go, he must tell IFSRA now that he intends to have the general meeting on 10 January next. 

But I don't think that there is anything which prevents IFSRA from approving the scheme a lot quicker. My guess is that they just want this headache out of the way and will rubber stamp the conversion scheme as long as it complies with the Act.  If it is completely outrageous they will ask Fingleton to make it fairer, but he is under no obligation to do so.  All they can do is to hold back approving it for 5 months, which is probably what they would do. 

Brendan


----------



## RainyDay

Trier said:
			
		

> Can anyone confirm whether this 6 months notice must be given prior to the issue of notice of resolution to savers to demutualise. If so then its a help towards reaching the 2 year requirement for holding a qualifying savings account in the Society.


INBS gave the Central bank notice of their intention to demutualise in June 2004 following the passing of a members resolution which instructed them to do exactly that.



			
				Brendan said:
			
		

> But I don't think that there is anything which prevents IFSRA from approving the scheme a lot quicker. My guess is that they just want this headache out of the way and will rubber stamp the conversion scheme as long as it complies with the Act.  If it is completely outrageous they will ask Fingleton to make it fairer, but he is under no obligation to do so.  All they can do is to hold back approving it for 5 months, which is probably what they would do.


In theory, the Regulator could withold approval indefinitely, right?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

The above timescale is *my *estimate of the *earliest *possible times. The fact that they are not adhering to this does not mean that they are behind schedule.

They are apparently just appointing advisors now and so are months away from making an announcement. We won't know until the announcement is made. I suspect at this stage that someone who drew down their mortgage in October 2004 is OK. I can't see it happening before October 2006. It might happen before December 2006, but unlikely.


----------



## ClubMan

In the meantime people who reaching the end of their mortgages and clearing their loans slip out of the _DM _net?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Yes. But they should extend their mortgages to make sure that they don't.

Brendan


----------



## smcgiff

Or stop paying mortgage repayments!


----------



## Brendan Burgess

This thread is for predicting the timescale of the Irish Nationwide demutualisation.

Any "Do I qualify questions" or other off topic questions will be deleted

Brendan


----------



## RainyDay

mary jane said:


> hello, could you tell me when is the next meeting  on selling  nationwide.or is it ever going to happen.thank you.


The next AGM should be sometime before the end of April 2007, unless of course, it has converted into a bank before then, in which case there would have to be an earlier meeting to approve the conversion scheme.

If you're not happy with the delays, get onto Head Office and let them know.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

This thread is about predicting the date of the Irish Nationwide. I have deleted all posts which are off topic. 

Brendan


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Updated 18 January 2007 

I have no idea what is happening. Everyone assumed that it would be done and dusted by now, but very little seems to be happening on the surface. They are doing a sellers' due diligence and that may have come up with some major skeleton. I have reported what I believe to be systematic overcharging to the Financial Regulator. If they are investigating this, it could take a long time to investigate, sort out and refund to customers. 

I am now guessing, and it is only a guess, that the D Day for qualification is September 2007.

Brendan


----------



## novavax

some comments:

They Sunday Indo published in early December that "firm news would be announced at the AGM at end January". 

last years AGM was April and I cannot see audited accounts etc being available by end Jan and presumably as members we would have received notice of an AGM by now - not sure why the Indo said this.

Still, maybe the application to demutualise via a trade sale will be accepted by IFSRA / Central Bank in end Jan - this would then be the key date.

As regards Vendor Due Diligence, apparently they have appointed their auditors to perform this (I would have thought a different firm might have given it more credibility as in effect KPMG are to some extent auditing their own work), but I dont know if this has been completed and circulated to interested parties. 

If as suggested their could be a systematic systems error, this would be problematic and would possibly mean a full scale systems/ IT audit. It could delay matters as a purchaser would indeed need to know the full scale of the problem. Unlike the sale of, say, a private company where part of the proceeds can be held in escrow against future claims that cannot happen here.

There is of course always plan B - simply demutualise and float. I would imagine this will be back on the agenda if a purchaser cannot be found by say March


----------



## COMMOMSENSE

The point re "skeletons" is valid,as could simply the fact that there isnt a line of bankers banging on the door of Nationwide House to aquire INBS.
It will take one entity to show its hand first before a true timeframe will become clear.


----------



## COMMOMSENSE

Piece from todays Irish Independent below-Brendan your timeframe of September 2007 looks accurate 

"whole process has moved along much more slowly than people had first anticipated, to the point that there is likely to be a head of steam built up in time for the agm unless progress is seen to be being made. 
Offer 
Institutions preparing to offer themselves for sale do not always opt for a vendor due diligence. 
It would be more normal to negotiate with prospective purchasers or strategic partners, allowing them then to carry out their own due diligence before completing a deal. 
But it is felt that the Irish Nationwide, having failed initially to attract a really keen suitor, opted for this process as a means of eliminating "tyre kickers" - competing institutions only really interested in having a look at the business and make-up of its loan books but who do not harbour serious interest in acquiring the lender. "


----------



## kilteragh

Brendan said:


> Updated 18 January 2007
> 
> I have no idea what is happening. Everyone assumed that it would be done and dusted by now, but very little seems to be happening on the surface. They are doing a sellers' due diligence and that may have come up with some major skeleton. I have reported what I believe to be systematic overcharging to the Financial Regulator. If they are investigating this, it could take a long time to investigate, sort out and refund to customers.
> 
> I am now guessing, and it is only a guess, that the D Day for qualification is September 2007.
> 
> Brendan


 
Does this mean that anyone who opens a qualifying account between now and September 2007 (assuming that turns out to be the time) would qualify or that the two year expiry period must be over before then?


----------



## oysterman

kilteragh said:


> Does this mean that anyone who opens a qualifying account between now and September 2007 (assuming that turns out to be the time) would qualify or that the two year expiry period must be over before then?


Brendan is thinking that the two year period must be over before then. But, given the drawn-out nature of this process, it could be much longer. Or the members could get sense and take back the Society, throwing Fingers and his pals out.....sorry, just dreaming.


----------



## sitecorp

Think Brendan meant D Day is September 2007 for an announcement but that D Day for qualifying for a pay out, at the earliest is September 2005. 

My accounts 2 year period came into existance this week, so i'm a bit happier now!!


----------



## GreatDane

Hi

From the looks of things, this could run on for years yet - lets face it:

* Mr. F does not appear to be in any hurry, or if he is, he is doing a great job of keeping it a secret

* If the Financial Regulator is investigating the INBS, then it's highly unlikely that any sale would be concluded before this date (without significant guarantees which, from "ordinary" people might not be considered to have any value etc)

* The value of Banks is shifting a lot and with interest rate movements likely to hamper future levels of borrowing, risks apparent elsewhere in the world in the "sub prime" market etc etc it's not necessarily the best time for INBS to be sold is it ?

* This "sellers' due diligence" does not give possible purchasers a lot of comfort, given it's being conducted by INBS and it's representatives rather than those appointed by a would be purchaser etc.

If I had funds in the INBS now and was part of the way through the initial 2-year period, I'd certainly be taking a bet and leaving them there for the moment.  Not sure if I'd go in from scratch at this stage though ...

Cheers

G>


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Hi G

I must say that the likely day is getting further and further away. I told some people almost two years ago that it was very unlikely that they would qualify but they had very little to lose. They are now coming up the two years and delighted that they opened the account.

My understanding is that the Irish Nationwide has not yet appointed advisors, so the sales process has not even begun. I suspect that there must be something happening which is stopping them looking for a buyer. 

The Annual Report will be out in the next two weeks and it will be interesting to see what the Chair says about it then. 

The AGM will be at the end of April as usual.

Brendan


----------



## Tom_31

Surely Fingleton will want to have this all tied up before he reaches the age of 70 to make sure he gets a payout. Doesn't he have to retire at that age or am I over simplifying things? Anyway, does anyone know when that will be?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

19th January 2008. 

He has to retire from the board at that stage. 

He will probably try to stay on as General Manager. 

I think that it is now highly unlikely that the Society will have been demutualised by then as the process has not yet started.

No advisors have been appointed yet, so the process has not begun. There must be some big internal issue holding it up.

The Annual Report will be out in the next few weeks, I reckon that the 10th April is the absolute latest. It will make very interesting reading. 

Brendan


----------



## DirtyH2O

Somw staff I know in INBS including branch managers have been leaving this year losing their potential payouts, make of it what you will.


----------



## mosii

what time frame is your best guess now for demut. brendan,?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

The Chairman said at today's AGM that he expects the whole thing to be done and dusted by the end of the year. 

Come to think of it, I don't think he specified which year.

My own opinion, is that it will happen early next year. 

Brendan


----------



## sunnygirl

Hi Brendan,

Any chance of an update on this? In your opinion what is now the date for demutualisation.

Many Thks
Sunnygirl


----------



## 149oaks

Ye this seems to have gone very quiet, is this a sign there's something afoot?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

No change or developments since the AGM

Brendan


----------



## Murt10

*Landsbanki may bid for Nationwide*

Might be a bit of action on the way according to Irish Independent. 

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/landsbanki-may-bid-for-nationwide-695592.html


----------



## oysterman

Fingers must be feeling the heat again - so clearly it was time for another bit of guff to be briefed off the record to the financial journos on an otherwise quiet news day.


----------



## sunnygirl

Sunny Girl

Please don't post repetitive posts.

your question is being asked all the time. This is a FAQ and not suited to the same question being asked time and time again

Brendan
Administrator.


----------



## sunnygirl

ok....fair point. Last time timescale was reviewed looks like 18th January on page 1. It might be helpful to bring this up to date with whatever limited info is available?


----------



## Rita

This is from todays Examiner, looking like its getting further and further away...

[broken link removed]


----------



## gar32

*Staff getting their share???*

Hi I have been with INBS for 11 years now & all and all not very happy with them. Hagging in with them for this pay out. I hear from friends of friends that the staff are very unhappy their. they have not get a rise in over 2 years & are just getting told that they will get a big pay off. I am thinking that they are tring to get rid of staff as too have a bigger pice of the pie when its comes. Does any one have an Idea how much staff would get? I know I would not be happy working there hearing the stories. 

Gar32


----------



## mosii

11 months to go to qualify,what r my chances do u think?does any body know whats going on? hassard a guess on this thread brendan?


----------



## election0

No person here really has the slightest idea when demutualisation will occur . It was widely predicted for last year but nothing came of it .
I dont think Brendan or anyone will hazzard a guess because all past predictions have been very wide of the mark .

Nobody knows when it will happen and actually nobody knows *for sure  *what the exact qualifying conditions will be . In short we are all clueless !


----------



## Rita

Is it possible that this could go on and on and on like standard life where the original estimates for windfalls dwindled from £10,000 in 1999 when it was all supposed to happen to less than €1,000 in 2006 when it eventually happened??


----------



## smcgiff

Rita, it would seem as if Fingers et al were going out of their way to do just that!


----------



## fnannery

I am disgusted with the Irish Nationwide management. They have sat on their hands for the past year following the change in legislation and missed out on the oppurtunity to sell the business at the peak of an economic boom. Now the stock markets are in freefall and the fear of a crash in the mortgage market is going to have huge consequenses for the value of I.N. We can all kiss our €10000+ windfalls goodbye. We will be lucky to get €2k or €3k the way its going. The silence from management is deafening. Its time to act! Its literally time to get the "Finger" out.


----------



## smcgiff

I hate to say it fnannery, but now is probably not the time to sell INBS. They should hold out for a better market. If they sold it now it would be at fire sale prices. 

With that said, what you said about missing the boat is true.


----------



## election0

I just heard on RTE radio 1 this morning that general electric have shown an interest in Irish nationwide sale .

I talked to their savings department today and they said they are still confident they can sell at good value because a lot of their buisness is in Britain . They also said interest had been expressed from a number of other companies including a few foreign ones .

This might not amount to much more than a hill of beans but for what it's worth thats the latest that I know about anyway .


----------



## RainyDay

Looks like INBS have been taking advantage of the quiet news season in August and been spinning hard with the journos to try and get some positive coverage!


----------



## bingojoe

I just caught the tail end of that report - I thought it was on Newstalk around 8.40 am. Since there are over 100 000 people hanging on hoping for 10 k , I thoght there might have been a bit more about it. It may not amount to anything, but I think a Decent Rumour at this stage is an advance on months and months of silence.


----------



## PMan

*Landisbanki doing due diligence*

In the business section of the IT this morning. Due diligence has started but not on an exclusive basis i.e. INBS still talking to others.  No dates mentioned.

Other than what has already been discussed here there is not much more than that in the article.


----------



## gar32

In the Indo Yesterday was a small pice on INBS for sure not being sold this year. Hear their staff are tired of waiting with no rise in years & only promise of pay out if the sell. I think managment have do some thing wrong & should have sold when the iron was hot.

I am waiting until Aug next year when fix rate stops. Hope things have happened by then.


----------



## election0

This report appeared in RTE's news website today :

Friday, 31 August 2007 13:04 
ICELANDIC BANK LOOKS AT IRISH NATIONWIDE - The Irish Times reports that Icelandic bank Landsbanki is understood to be examining Irish Nationwide's books, a move that brings it a step closer to bidding for the building society. 
Landsbanki has had its eye on Irish Nationwide since legislation was passed this year allowing it to demutualise and seek a buyer.
At least three institutions have opened talks with the building society in recent weeks, the paper says. 
Advertisement

Landsbanki has hired international institution HSBC to advise on a possible bid for the group.
Yesterday it emerged that the Icelandic institution had begun carrying out due diligence at Irish Nationwide, although it is understood that this is not being done on an exclusive basis and that the society is still talking to other potential buyers.
Irish Nationwide has 125,000 members, who are either borrowers or savers with the building society. According to recent estimates, they stand to make anything between €10,000 and €15,000 from its sale, the article says.


----------



## mosii

Assuming this is true, anybody hazard a guess as to a date for _*demut.*_
thanks


----------



## sunnygirl

Assuming these reports are true, I would guess at 1st quarter next year for conversion resolution. If multiple bidders are interested, surely it would take until at least year end for each to complete due diligence and then whatever negotiations that would have to take place.


----------



## wtk2007

Brendan said:


> They are doing a sellers' due diligence and that may have come up with some major skeleton. I have reported what I believe to be systematic overcharging to the Financial Regulator. If they are investigating this, it could take a long time to investigate, sort out and refund to customers.


I recieved the latest of my (4 cheques so far about €5000 total) from the INBS last month. These cheques relate to overcharging on 2 mortgage accounts from a few years back, so this is a sign that they are cleaning out their closets, but who knows how long this will take. The INBS made some serious howlers on my accounts so how many other people do the have to refund!!!
W


----------



## PMI

_ 

PMI

Please don't drag this very specific thread off-topic.  Start a new thread, or better still, read some of the existing ones on the topic.

Brendan
Administrator
_


----------



## Murt10

Alliance & Leicester down 31% as well today.

I think all bets on when the Irish Nationwide will be sold are off. No buyer in their right mind is going to want to buy a mickey mouse Irish outfit while there is blood on the streets in the UK. 

This unease and uncertainty will spread to other banks and other sectors of the economy.

You ain't seen nothing yet.


Murt


----------



## Baldy

Agree with you Murt. THis volatility would have serious pricing implications so Id say this is going to be shelved till things settle down. Otherwise we would be lucky to get €5k rather than the larger sums which had been mooted

Baldy


----------



## smcgiff

Exactly, guys. The 5th biggest Mortgage lender in the UK is sitting up on its hind legs begging to be taken over – INBS who???

As the New York cop would say to the crowd hanging around a murder scene. 'Move along folks, nothing to see here!'


----------



## Murt10

Payoff by Christmas !!!!  (this year?)


"Although some suggest the bank would be well advised to defer the sale until the current credit crunch subsides Michael Fingleton, the building society's chief executive, is keen to facilitate a sale before next January."






Murt


----------



## RainyDay

It's probably worth keeping the SIndo's track record of many years of supportive and forgiving coverage to INBS in mind when reading this article. 

I guess the reference to next January relates to Mr Fingleton's 70th birthday. According to the society rules, he can no longer be a director once he hits this milestone.


----------



## RainyDay

Looks like the Irish Times business journos are keeping an eye on AAM - see post above and today's IT article as follows;


> *
> Pressure mounts on Nationwide boss*
> Irish Nationwide managing director Michael Fingleton is under increasing pressure to execute the sale of the building society after it emerged that he will have to leave its board when he turns 70 next January


----------



## Baldy

From todays independent

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/landsbanki-set-to-bid-euro1bnplus-for-nationwide-1115397.html


----------



## sitecorp

Nationwide hires Goldman Sachs for €1.5bn sale                                                                                  

Irish Nationwide is to appoint Goldman Sachs to handle the sale of the building society within the next ten days, _The Sunday Business Post_ has learned.

The sale price will be over €1.3 billion and is likely to be closer to €1.5 billion, according to sources close to the process...............

[broken link removed]


----------



## mosii

could this process take until june 08 people as thats when i will have 2 yrs done. Thanks.


----------



## smcgiff

mosii said:


> could this process take until june 08 people as thats when i will have 2 yrs done. Thanks.


 
Personally, I think not. I think it will be finalised before Fingers needs to step down. If the sale of INBS is close to 1.5b then the owners (us) are likely to vote yes. 

If we get €12k, that would be €10k net of CGT tax. (assuming mortgages are in joint names).


----------



## Daddy

Question for Brendan:

According to your original opening post of 7/4/06 we are currently only at Step 1 - finding a buyer.

According to your various Steps at best estimates it could be up to 10 months
thereafter before cheques might be issued.

Are you still holding to all of these Steps having to be gone through and perhaps an update is necessary to that post.

Thanks


----------



## narky

_ Administrator's Message. 

Hi Narky - this thread is for predicting the date of the demutualization. 

Read the FAQs where your question should be answered. 

Brendan_


----------



## mosii

Can you not just answer the question brendan?A lot of people have an interest in this,and its all under the same banner.If you cant answer maybe someone else can guess at sequence and a timeframe,thank you


----------



## narky

i find this thread and site extremely patronising and condescending.  I do realise it may be irritating for people who are completely in the know with such things as demutualisations etc to be asked the same question repeatedly.  if you looked back on my question it was about whether the year was from month to month or just after jan 1st Brendan!!! this is not answered as far as i can see in the FAQs.  if it is i apologise for wasting this 30 seconds reading my post.


----------



## mosii

can anyone give a rough timeframe and rough sequence of events that must happen before demut. takes place,*thanks.*


----------



## Daddy

I'm with Mosili on this.

Is it time Brendan to do an update to your opening post ?


----------



## sunnygirl

I think there is a genuine interest in seeing an update on what appears on the 1st page of this post. Surely it wouldnt hurt to revise it dated Oct 2007. If its been updated at regular intervals to *Jan 2007* why stop now??
For what its worth, I would imagine anyone who opened an account b4 end Dec 2005 will qualify for windfall. I would love to see someone with a stronger financial background than me give their opinions.


----------



## mollymac

Just read RTE business news this morning.Nationwide is owed the most money from that solicitor in the news this week will that make a difference to whats happening with the sale.


----------



## smcgiff

Folks -I recommend a large brown paper bag and some deep breaths.


----------



## mosii

any one out there have a clue as to a rough timeframe and sequence of events that *must *happen,as brendan is on hols,or somewhere!thanks


----------



## sunnygirl

The 5 banks with money loaned to solicitor Michael Lynn have been named on RTE radio and INBS is not one of them. So that is not a factor in timeframe. Goldman Sachs were appointed as advisors last week  & industry insiders expected things to move 'swiftly' along once advisors were appointed. How much notice is generally given to members in advance of EGM?


----------



## RainyDay

sunnygirl said:


> The 5 banks with money loaned to solicitor Michael Lynn have been named on RTE radio and INBS is not one of them.



Not true - see [broken link removed]


----------



## Ringer

There is a write up in todays Irish Times (on-line) about Lynn owing INBS up to 10million Euro. Will this really impact a potential sale of 1billion+.


----------



## sunnygirl

Apologies - list of banks mentioned on RTE website yesterday did not mention INBS. I was wrong.....having said that I dont think it will have an impact on pending sale. I think current international turmoil on financial markets and a weakening mortgage market will be real factors.


----------



## sapmanie

> Step 7 Cheques will be issued January 2007


I thought we were going to be paid in shares, not money?


----------



## RainyDay

sapmanie said:


> I thought we were going to be paid in shares, not money?



The stated policy of INBS is to find a cash buyer. However, nothing is certain until there is an offer on the table for members.

PS Looks like there is a further €10m missing somewhere around Walkinstown.


----------



## Daddy

Sunday Business Post doing a big feature on Irish Nationwide this Sunday.

That will probably state the timeframe involved.


----------



## smcgiff

Daddy said:


> Sunday Business Post doing a big feature on Irish Nationwide this Sunday.
> 
> That will probably state the timeframe involved.


 
Well, their guess is as good as anybody's I suppose.


----------



## Daddy

Not sure of sequence of events but I would be fairly certain payments will be with us latest March.   My D'Day by the way is 21/11/07.


----------



## mosii

wil it all be done by april 08 anyone guess ,thanks.


----------



## HIDI

Hi

Really grateful for anyones advice, I am currently going through a seperation and my partner,he is applying for loan to buy my share of the house, we have a mortgage with Irishnationwide in which I paid for the past 4 years, I have asked him to agree to split any shares or money he gets when they are took over. He said no. Have I any right to half of this money when my name is took of the mortgage.


----------



## sapmanie

> when my name is took of the mortgage


I don't think so, no.


----------



## GreatDane

Perhaps it could be written into the seperation agreement, something your solicitor might be able to advise you on ?


Regards


G>


----------



## sunnygirl

It was reported in Fridays Irish Times that a date will be set later in November as a deadline for first bids. This was mentioned in an article on Icelandic Banks financial results. If there are multiple bidders its hard to see an EGM being called this side of Christmas. Be interested to hear other peoples view? Any mention in Sunday Business Post at weekend?


----------



## smcgiff

sunnygirl said:


> It was reported in Fridays Irish Times that a date will be set later in November as a deadline for first bids.


 
Good info. Thanks. I didn't buy the SBP. A good paper, but I think they're milking the whole INBS thing to be honest.


----------



## sunnygirl

latest info I have got from an INBS source. Nothing particularly new but here goes....They are hopeful that a sale will be agreed in the coming weeks. It probably will spill over into 2008. There must be 30 days notice of an EGM. Now, can anyone help me with this question - at what point will the conversion resolution be announced? Is it at the point the sale is agreed or would it only be when the members vote at the EGM??


----------



## Ringer

[broken link removed]

Dated Sat. 17th Nov.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

The key date for deciding who qualifies, is the date that they publicly call the meeting, not the date of the meeting.

Brendan


----------



## belgrano

"Irish Nationwide is expected to sell for between €1 billion and €1.5 billion, although sources close to the building society have said they now expect it to sell for closer to the lower end of that scale due to the 40 per cent fall in the value of Irish financial stocks since the start of the year."

Shows you the importance of timing. If they had sold this 1 year or even 6 months ago they would have got closer to $1.5 billion.


----------



## sunnygirl

Brendan - do u think the meeting will be called b4 Christmas?


----------



## Daddy

Sunny Girl:

22 working days to Christmas.

1st bids have to come in and no doubt second bids.

Add in all the turmoil going on in the financial markets.

I will nearly say with 100% confidence that no meeting will be called before Christmas.

If I was to call it I would say the meeting will be called for sometime in February but this is just a guess.

My 2 year period by the way is today so I'm hopefully in but I suppose that will depend on the conversion proposals.


----------



## sunnygirl

I would agree with you Daddy. If the deadline for 1st bids is a date in Nov, surely it must be a date in Dec for 2nd or further bids.


----------



## mosii

whats hapening lads , any bids gone in yet ,or is the credit crunch putting the process on hold,


----------



## Baldy

Mosii 

Definetly the crunch has an impact but from what I hear it is more the INBS process that is broken.


----------



## Brendan Burgess

Well they certainly missed their target of having it sold by the end of 2007.


----------



## mosii

would u hazard a guess brendan ?as to u know what?i have 6 mths to go,what are my chances?


----------



## Brendan Burgess

I have no idea. I have given up predicting.


----------



## mosii

ok thanks anyway brendan,i will keep my _*fingers*_ crossed,excusethe pund.


----------



## PMI

PUND ??

Happy New Year to all


----------



## mosii

yes,*fingers* and the *ceo* of inbs.whats happening with the bids lads?will it carry on until the next agm so the bidders will see whats happening!!


----------



## sunnygirl

Fingleton was due to retire in Jan....any update?


----------



## RainyDay

AFAIK, his 70th birthday is this weekend, and he will no longer be a Director of INBS on Monday. I doubt if this will have any significant impact - he will presumably still be Chief Executive, but just without a seat on the board.


----------



## mosii

anyone hazard a guess ,as to whats happening lads ?is this going to happen this year  thanks


----------



## GreatDane

mosii said:


> anyone hazard a guess ,as to whats happening lads ?is this going to happen this year  thanks



Hi

I'm purely an outsider looking in, with no insider information etc, but:

I think the chances of INBS being sold this year look quite slim ...

- the price of almost every Bank in the western world, has dropped significantly over the past 6 months, the result of which has to have been, to devalue the potential value of INBS right alongside the rest of them.  There is little evidence the price / value of the banks will increase during the course of this year and infact, based upon projected earnings for some of the financial institutions being suggested by some stock brokers etc, there's an arguement to support their value dropping further over the next 12-18 months !

- there has been a significant reduction in the property market, in Ireland & the UK, the result being a fall off in the amount of property based banking likely to be done this year - again, something which would reduce INBS's value (as a result of reducing it's likely profits)

- there is a visable credit crunch in the money markets, making funds more expensive for all financial institutions using those money markets.  INBS is amongst the many institutions using these markets to raise funds to help fund it's loan book - so if it's paying more for it's funds, it's not making as much profit, again the net result if a reduction in the likely price of the INBS

- To be considered right alongside the above, is the fact that many potential bidders might now be finding it harder to raise capital to fund both their loan books & funds for a possible acquisition of INBS, so that's probably knocked a few potential bidders out of the bidding process.

- given what we've seen to date, INBS has been very slow to progress this entire matter.  Sure, they used the legislation as their main excuse for quite some time, but that matter was dealt with for them quite a while ago now ... 

- on a personal level ( & I say this purely as a spectator looking at the situation from the distance, with no more knowledge than anyone else ) ... I really don't think Michael Fingelton wants to let go of his control of the INBS & as a result, has been talking about selling INBS when the time is right to keep members happy, but at the back of it all - really does not want to.   One way or another, he's going to have to release his grip on INBS quite soon, as I've read he must resign from his position when he turns 70 Years (next year ?), but no doubt he's got some other idea up his sleeve to ensure he remains in the top office at the INBS.

Just my 2cents worth 

Regards

G>


----------



## Eddie Conran

Hi
I agreed, it is a terrible time to be selling an Irish bank so dependent on a healthy property market. I think the momnet passed last year and may not come around again for a long time. The last thing any bank wants now is more debt on its books, particularly Irish property debt.
The only hope now might be some sort of break up and sale of different parts of the company. This might be a greedy carpet bagger type solution though that may not appeal to board members or staff.

I hope I am wrong

eddie


----------



## Daddy

Back in Nov I guessed it would be this month that a meeting on the conversion would be called.

I also referred back then to the financial turmoil going on in the market.

According to the Sunday Independent the sale process has been deferred.

Anyone's guess now but I would advise anyone who has 20k spare to open an account
straight away and avail of the 5.1% gross 1 year fixed rate share account.

This could easily take a further 2 years at this stage as the Nationwide will not sell itself cheaply until markets turn for the better.


----------



## epac

Deutsche Bank announce it's on the acquisition trail, may not be all so doom and gloom out there!


----------



## Baldy

I would be very suprised if Deutshe would ever contemplate bidding for INBS...

Lets be honest here, the board have not covered themselves in glory with this whole process. They delayed in bringing it to the market, and when they did they never stopped talking in the papers about the potential suitors, which obviously scared people away. When they did bring it to the market it looked to me like the process was very unorganised.... i mean why only appoint an advisor (Goldman - the right choice i think by the way) after many months of having the thing for sale? Naivety to think they could do it without one? 

I wonder how much the whole sorry process has cost us? It was reported that a lot of work was done by the auditors for the sale, im sure that wasnt cheap? 

Of course the board will come out and say "...extraordinary market conditions...blah blah blah no one could have foreseen the turbulence..."... but in delaying for so long and then making a half-baked attempt to i think they have made a ball$ of it. 

Best to put the holiday plans on hold!! 

B


----------



## sunnygirl

Yes the Sunday Indo did say the sale has been deferred but on the positive side, it was also reported that Nationwide is expected to release excellent results for 2007 and that they have the lowest cost base of all Irish financial institutions. Also its expected that Fingleton will remain on to oversee the sale (whenever it happens)
Ok, they missed the boat last year in terms of achieving a bumper price but markets are cyclical and surely things can only improve!


----------



## Baldy

I see where you get your pen name from sunnygirl!! 

Its comforting to see Fingers is staying on to oversee the sale.... very comforting considering he made such a good fist of it this time . 

If i were looking at this i would look more closely at pipeline and expectations for 2008, 2007 first half would have been v. strong due to market at that time. 2008 will be way more of a challenge given property markets in UK and Ire. The cost base is v.low to their credit, but I wouldnt see that as entirely positive (low cost = low investment in staff, infrastructure etc) as it may only increase the costs post-acquisition of a purchaser post-acquisition, which would all be factored into the price paid anyway! Lowest cost base of all Irish banks etc isnt really a comparable statistic anyway in that INBS is not a full-service retail bank and AIB, BOI, PTSB etc could never hope to compete


----------



## MugsGame

Perhaps the INBS executives are not as enthusiastic about demutualisation as the members. The members directed them to demutualise, the board then wait on the government for a change in legislation, then they wait on "due diligence" (which is going to be repeated later by a buyer anyway), then the names of the buyers start circulating which annoys some of them, and now the markets have tanked and the board can justifiably claim it's not a good time to sell.


----------



## smcgiff

MugsGame said:


> Perhaps the INBS executives are not as enthusiastic about demutualisation as the members. The members directed them to demutualise, the board then wait on the government for a change in legislation, then they wait on "due diligence" (which is going to be repeated later by a buyer anyway), then the names of the buyers start circulating which annoys some of them, and now the markets have tanked and the board can justifiably claim it's not a good time to sell.


 
A similar suspicion crossed my mind.


----------



## sunnygirl

hey, i'm the eternal optimist. By the way I dont consider Fingers remaining as a positive, I should have worded my last posting better.
To be honest if demutualisation had happened prior to November I wouldnt have qualified. Im sure I'm not the only person who the delay has helped!!


----------



## Daddy

Advised my brother to open an account which he has done yesterday.

20k on that bond offering 5.1% fixed for 1 year.

It's a share account.

Nothing to lose I told him while getting a decent enough rate.


----------



## mimi rogers

if it does demutualise... what does this mean for money maker account holders? can they still hold on to their account after demutualisation?

mimi


----------



## gar32

Sick of waiting 13 years now moving to AIB tracker rate & knocking 10 years off payment for my apartment. I called & ask for a better rate & was told sorry but the rate is set at the top. I have never dealt with a more unhelpful group ok maybe NTL but cutting losses & close my INBS shop!!! They said not this year but maybe next year 

Good luck with getting blood from the stone of INBS


----------



## mosii

*i wonder will demut.ever take place now ,with a recession and the effects of the credit crunch globally.*


----------



## redeyedjak

If I had €20k to invest has anybody got any advice where to put it?


----------



## Ringer

If you put it into a shareholder savings account with Irish Nationwide, you may benefit from any future demutaulisation. The rates are good anyway. Don't hold your breath though - people are growing old waiting for that to happen.


----------



## JoandKen

Has there been any change in the INBS de-mutualisation status/process since these last posts or where do things stand now?
And what effect will the current down-turn in the market have on all of this?


----------



## soy

It is on hold with no demut happeneing for the forseeable future. The boat has sailed on this one, they blew it with their procrastination and any eventual windfall will be a fraction of what was once hoped for.


----------



## liammc01

Ha ha..Who are they fooling..How can people be so stupid to believe that a bank will give out millions in pay outs to its customers.Its wishful thinking and does no credit to the bank to allow the rumour to continue.
Dreadful buisness.


----------



## gar32

*Predicting the date of Irish Nationwide demutualisation*

I got check cleared to change mortgage from INBS this week. I was waiting over 10 years for this wind fall & paid over the odd's in interest when I should have changed long time ago. I have to say other then INBS giving more money then anyone else the have been really bad to deal with & as my sister used to work there. I know all round they are not good to staff or customers. I am glad to see the back of them & hope my memory of them fads fast. If you’re paying a mortgage to this crowd get out now. They are ripping you off.


Regards gar


----------

