# good time to buy sterling?



## trumpet (13 Jul 2016)

I'm thinking of putting around 10k euro into my UK bank account assuming that sterling will rally in the near future. Is this wise?


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## newirishman (13 Jul 2016)

It is wise if you don't mind losing money. I am not sure if it is wise to not mind losing money. 

With current FX rate, 10K euro are about 8430 sterling. let's assume sterling rallies back up to 1.41 in 6 months, that would mean 11850 euro (or thereabouts). Or 18.5% gain. IMO unlikely that this happens in 6 months. 

I sterling falls further, say to parity, than you lost 1670 euro. IMO more likely in a 6 months timeframe than the other way round.


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## trumpet (13 Jul 2016)

As the man said "a bird in the hand...." Thanks for your words of wisdom newirishman.


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## Donnie (12 Oct 2016)

Sterling is now approx. at €1.11. It will "probably" IMHO weaken further towards parity over the next month or two. What are peoples thoughts that, if it does go near parity, to start buying say €10k of £sterling?

Also what are the options to do this without large FX charges? How does one go about opening a current a/c in the UK if residing permanently in Rep of Ire.

Apologies if the above seems simplistic to some posters but any feedback and assistance would be much appreciated.

Thanks


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## Ravima (12 Oct 2016)

google opening non resident uk bank account. It is doable, but not easy. 

try currencyfair.com for the exchange, linking both accounts.

it is impossible to forecast future exchange rates. If I tell you that they might be more or  they might be less, then I can't be wrong!


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## jim (13 Oct 2016)

Donnie, given that sterling is at a historic low and is IMHO likely to do lower I think it is fair to say that it is not a bad time to buy sterling now ....or wait a little longer and make further gains.


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## tallpaul (13 Oct 2016)

In my opinion it is a terrible time to buy Sterling. Now that Brexit has been clearly indicated to take place in Spring 2019, it is likely that Sterling will bump along the bottom for the next twelve months or so due to the high levels of uncertainty of the form that Brexit will take. In the final six months in the lead up to the actual separation it will become clear if Brexit will be 'hard' or 'soft'. In the case of the former, it is likely that Sterling will dip closer to parity (and beyond) if it is not there by then already as the reality of the new world order for the UK takes hold with tariffs and other trade disadvantages. If Brexit is going to be 'soft' i.e. the UK have successfully negotiated a workable trade system with the EU, I would expect Sterling to start rising back towards previous 'normal' levels as the UK will effectively have got the best of both worlds as they would see it.

However the noises from Westminster over the past number of days would suggest that the more hawkish, separatist Ministers favour a 'hard' Brexit. This is going to have a significant effect on Sterling's long-term outlook.


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## jim (13 Oct 2016)

Fair points Tallpaul.

But if you were willing to hold your stg for 5 years or longer in a reasonable interest bearing account would you not stand to gain significantly given that its at a 168 year low as of yesterday? As I said though in my post above, if one was to hold out and buy in the coming months and years they would likely stand to make an even bigger gain. This is predicated though on the assumption that over 5 years or longer the Stg would recover.


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## tallpaul (13 Oct 2016)

Why do you think Sterling will recover? The Japanese yen has been under the cosh for more than twenty years due to Japan's moribund economy. Who is to say that Brexit will not have a profound depressive effect on the British economy for a generation? Personally I think speculating on FX to make money is a mug's game. Far too many variables involved over which even a sovereign government has little control.


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## aristotle (13 Oct 2016)

Impossible to predict, may as well go into Paddy Power.


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## cremeegg (13 Oct 2016)

jim said:


> Fair points Tallpaul.
> 
> But if you were willing to hold your stg for 5 years or longer in a reasonable interest bearing account would you not stand to gain significantly given that *its at a 168 year low as of yesterday? *As I said though in my post above, if one was to hold out and buy in the coming months and years they would likely stand to make an even bigger gain. This is predicated though on the assumption that over 5 years or longer the Stg would recover.



Is this correct. Have you a source for it. I would be very interested to know.


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## Gordanus (13 Oct 2016)

Seeing you asked this in July, and sterling has fallen since, and it doesn't really look like it'll recover to the same as it used be for a long while yet (my guess), I hope you didn't move the money!


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## jim (13 Oct 2016)

google it cremeegg

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/pound-slumps-to-168-year-low-1.2827172


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## jim (13 Oct 2016)

tallpaul said:


> Why do you think Sterling will recover? The Japanese yen has been under the cosh for more than twenty years due to Japan's moribund economy. Who is to say that Brexit will not have a profound depressive effect on the British economy for a generation? Personally I think speculating on FX to make money is a mug's game. Far too many variables involved over which even a sovereign government has little control.



I don't think or know if stg will recover. What I do know is that it is at a record low and is likely to drop further therefore depending on ones outlook on the currency it could be a good time to buy over the coming months after it drops further and it gets closer to brexit. I predict though that it will recover, along with the uk economy post brexit but that's just my opinion.


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## TheBigShort (14 Oct 2016)

Brexit wont happen. All that is happening is pure political posturing at the moment. When it comes to the hard-ball negotiations, the whole concept of Brexit will be blown apart. There are simply too many complex factors against Brexit to allow it to happen and simply not enough clear factors in favour of Brexit to make it happen.
1. There is a legal challenge in the British High Court against the triggering of Article 50 without a parliamentary vote. Unlike Irish referendums (before Lisbon and Nice), outcomes in British referenda have no real legal standing. Even if this HC challenge fails, the House of Lords may scupper any Commons vote.
2. Scotland, the emergence of another campaign for independence and subsequent break up of UK may sway some Brexiteers from pulling the trigger.
3. Ireland, the prospect of a return to a hard border will collapse the Stormont assembly if SF are still in power. If SF administer a border (be it British, Irish or EU) within the 32 counties they may as well wind-up and go home.
4. EU, the notion of retaining full access to the free market without concessions to the EU in some form is simply dumb. It wont and cant happen without threatening the very existence of the EU itself.
5. No-one actually knows what Brexit is.
6. The Liberal Democrats have already stated they want a second referendum and will campaign to Remain
7. The Labour Party have said that anything less than a full Brexit, it will need to be put to the people again.
8. If Brexit was stirred by too much immigration, then it is worth noting that the largest cohort of immigrants come from the Commonwealth countries, not the EU.

The list goes on...but these points are to the fore.

If you have the funds, buy Sterling on the way down.


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## jim (14 Oct 2016)

Ill place a bet with you Bigshort that Brexit will happen! Its happening.


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## TheBigShort (14 Oct 2016)

jim said:


> Ill place a bet with you Bigshort that Brexit will happen! Its happening.



Yep, no bother, just tell me what Brexit is first?


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## jim (14 Oct 2016)

You are saying brexit wont happen.

I am saying brexit will happen.

Brexit is the uk leaving the EU


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## TheBigShort (14 Oct 2016)

jim said:


> You are saying brexit wont happen.
> 
> I am saying brexit will happen.
> 
> Brexit is the uk leaving the EU



Yes, but are we talking about a 'soft' Brexit? Or 'hard' brexit, or what?
To me, a Norwegian style deal is not Brexit. They would still be subject to contributing to the EU budget amongst other things. 
To my mind Brexit will place the Uk in the equivalent trading position as Russia, Japan, China, US etc.
A Norwegian, Icelandic or Swiss type arrangement is not Brexit, as I understand it.


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## noproblem (14 Oct 2016)

I'll hold the money (Bet) Keep it simple and low, say €1000?


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## TheBigShort (14 Oct 2016)

noproblem said:


> I'll hold the money (Bet) Keep it simple and low, say €1000?



Against who?


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## jim (15 Oct 2016)

No problem noproblem. 

We can over complicate it but  brexit is basically britain exiting the building commonly refferred to as the "eu". Dunno about the ins and outs of it but i do know that the uk wont be in the "eu" in a couple of years. Lets bet on this.


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## cremeegg (15 Oct 2016)

jim said:


> Ill place a bet with you Bigshort that Brexit will happen! Its happening.



I will bet with you. What odds are you offering. After all, there has been a referendum in favour of Brexit, the prime minister says Brexit means Brexit, the tories are way ahead in the polls.

Everything points to Brexit happening, odds of say 10 to 1 seem fair.


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## TheBigShort (15 Oct 2016)

cremeegg said:


> I will bet with you. What odds are you offering. After all, there has been a referendum in favour of Brexit, the prime minister says Brexit means Brexit, the tories are way ahead in the polls.
> 
> Everything points to Brexit happening, odds of say 10 to 1 seem fair.



Betfair offering 4/1 on 2nd referendum before end 2019. So no actual Brexit should attract 8/1 minimum.


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## Boyd (15 Oct 2016)

@Brendan Burgess How come we offer speculation on currency (even quote betting odds in fact!), but are not allowed to talk about house prices, which is more relevant to way more people? Is it time to repeal the house price ban?!!


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## joe sod (15 Oct 2016)

@TheBigShort interesting your analysis. I agree with you on buying sterling I think at these levels its a buy although at anything over 87p. Remember the euro is not exactly a rock solid currency now and that is one of the big strengths of UK economy that it stayed out of Euro. However all this brexit stuff is just silly, it's like the brexit Tories think they are having a wet dream and can play out all their fantasies. Because they are having a wet dream they are not thinking of consequences ala Scotland and Ireland because they think they will wake up. But why the rush to trigger brexit in the wet dream , do they think it will bring right wing governments into power in Germany and France and therefore bring an end to the eu as we now know it.


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## noproblem (15 Oct 2016)

One thing about the Brexit referendum in Britain is that the House of Lords can basically say, "up yours" to it and it doesn't matter one bit who's in power or what majority they have.


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## TheBigShort (15 Oct 2016)

joe sod said:


> @TheBigShort interesting your analysis. I agree with you on buying sterling I think at these levels its a buy although at anything over 87p. Remember the euro is not exactly a rock solid currency now and that is one of the big strengths of UK economy that it stayed out of Euro. However all this brexit stuff is just silly, it's like the brexit Tories think they are having a wet dream and can play out all their fantasies. Because they are having a wet dream they are not thinking of consequences ala Scotland and Ireland because they think they will wake up. But why the rush to trigger brexit in the wet dream , do they think it will bring right wing governments into power in Germany and France and therefore bring an end to the eu as we now know it.



Thats a fair point about the euro. My views are conditional on the continued existence of the EU, and to a lesser extent, the euro.


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## TheBigShort (15 Oct 2016)

username123 said:


> @Brendan Burgess How come we offer speculation on currency (even quote betting odds in fact!), but are not allowed to talk about house prices, which is more relevant to way more people? Is it time to repeal the house price ban?!!



Not allowed talk about house prices??


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## Boyd (15 Oct 2016)

TheBigShort said:


> Not allowed talk about house prices??



Its a posting guideline. Banned since 2006: http://web.archive.org/web/20140830115136/http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=64538


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## TheBigShort (24 Oct 2016)

Brexit all over the place today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...stance-no-clearer-after-meeting-sturgeon-says

Led by a Prime Minister that campaigned to Remain. What sort of negotiating position is that?


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## Setanta12 (24 Oct 2016)

Soft/hard Brexit - immaterial.

If the UK leaves the EU, it will no longer have political representation, a seat at the table.  That is the only thing worth wagering upon.  The EU has special deals with a variety of countries and blocs all with differing characteristics.  For a bet you need it black/white in/out.  'Soft' / 'hard' is just avoiding the issue - the UK is leaving.


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## TheBigShort (24 Oct 2016)

Setanta12 said:


> Soft/hard Brexit - immaterial.
> 
> If the UK leaves the EU, it will no longer have political representation, a seat at the table.  That is the only thing worth wagering upon.  The EU has special deals with a variety of countries and blocs all with differing characteristics.  For a bet you need it black/white in/out.  'Soft' / 'hard' is just avoiding the issue - the UK is leaving.



The UK is leaving the EU with a Prime Minister that campaigned to Remain, no coherent strategy, and with its only discernable demand thus far - to 'Remain' in the single market!


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## Steven Barrett (25 Oct 2016)

From an Dimensional Fund Advisors currency article I put on my website.  



> Academic evidence suggests that currency movements are difficult to predict in the short- to medium-term in a manner that is relevant for making investment decisions. Currencies differ from shares and bonds because they do not produce interest or profits; therefore, they do not have an expected long-term positive return. It is possible to profit from currency trading, but trying to do so is highly speculative and, on average, returns are close to zero.



If you have €10,000 to play with, there are much better ways to make money than speculating on currency movements. 


Steven 
www.bluewaterfp.ie


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## TheBigShort (3 Nov 2016)

Another blow for the Brexiteers today. If the wheels haven't exactly started to come off yet, some new tyres are definitely needed.


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## Firefly (3 Nov 2016)

TheBigShort said:


> Brexit wont happen.



+1 The dogs in the street know it was the wrong call and given another go at it the result would be a lot different. The trick now is it arrange another referendum on it whilst saving face with the EU...


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## TheBigShort (3 Nov 2016)

Firefly said:


> +1 The dogs in the street know it was the wrong call and given another go at it the result would be a lot different. The trick now is it arrange another referendum on it whilst saving face with the EU...



I wouldnt necessarily call it the wrong call. If people are offered the choice through the political structures and the people make a decision then their politicians should honour the result, that is democracy is it not? 
I personally would not vote to leave the EU despite all its flaws, but if Irish people did vote to leave I would have to accept it.
My sentiment is that the political and business leaders of the UK, Ireland and Europe would have voted to Remain. They will use every obstacle, and more, that they can find to delay and ultimately reverse the decision. In this case, those obstacles will become so unwieldy and complex that in the end, Brexit wont happen.
It will be just another fine example of democracy being usurped to suit the interests of powerful minorities over the will of the majority. Although in fairness to the 'Remain' camp, usually the negotiated settlement comes before the vote, not the other way round. Imagine voting for something that no-one knows what it actually entails!


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## noproblem (3 Nov 2016)

This court decision was always going to happen and the Prime Ministers threat to speed  up Brexit was just a load of bull to appease the Leave campaigners. Have a look at Post No 27 on here written on 15th Oct. From now on pay attention when i'm talking to to some of you Elitists on here.


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## Firefly (3 Nov 2016)

TheBigShort said:


> Imagine voting for something that no-one knows what it actually entails!



I think that's it. Money and jobs will start leaving soon enough and if offered another go, I think the result would be different.

Given what was at stake, perhaps a 2/3s majority would have been better.


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## Firefly (3 Nov 2016)

noproblem said:


> *From now on pay attention when i'm talking to to some of you Elitists on here.*



I've never been called elitist, but I kinda like it, could you say it again?


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## noproblem (3 Nov 2016)

Firefly said:


> I've never been called elitist, but I kinda like it, could you say it again?


I'm afraid you're but a gentle follower, not a leader. Therefore an elitist you are not, just slightly better, for what that's worth.


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## TheBigShort (3 Nov 2016)

noproblem said:


> This court decision was always going to happen and the Prime Ministers threat to speed  up Brexit was just a load of bull to appease the Leave campaigners. Have a look at Post No 27 on here written on 15th Oct. From now on pay attention when i'm talking to to some of you Elitists on here.



Personally, I prefer post no. 15 from Oct 14th, starting with point no. 1


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## noproblem (3 Nov 2016)

Of course you would, but for whatever reason is beyond me.


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## moneybox (3 Nov 2016)

There will be no Brexit, never was going to be one. Not quite sure how we got into this mess.


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## elcato (4 Nov 2016)

Get back to the point or thread will be closed.


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## TheBigShort (4 Nov 2016)

elcato said:


> Get back to the point or thread will be closed.



Surely the impact of Brexit or no Brexit has a significant bearing on whether anyone should buy or sell Sterling?


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## elcato (4 Nov 2016)

TheBigShort said:


> Surely the impact of Brexit or no Brexit has a significant bearing on whether anyone should buy or sell Sterling?


It does, but betting on it and self-praising about predictions is not.


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## cremeegg (4 Nov 2016)

Buying or selling sterling, without any economic need is very similar to betting, as pointed out by S Barrett in post 34.

For my money, now is not a good time to buy sterling, it has further to fall. While I have acknowledged the point in post 34, I think that due to the unusual nature of the current circumstances, it may well be possible to predict the future trend of sterling. The unusual thing is that a decision has been made but not yet implemented. Usually factors that effect currency movements change from rumour to reality instantly. Brexit if not inevitable, is certainly more than rumour, however it will not turn to reality for over two years.

The time to buy sterling will be when every possible downside of Brexit has been priced in. I have no idea what level of sterling that will be, but it will occur when the markets are really panicking about Brexit. Probably about 6 to 3 months before it actually happens.


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## Firefly (4 Nov 2016)

noproblem said:


> I'm afraid you're but a gentle follower, not a leader. Therefore an elitist you are not, just slightly better, for what that's worth.



Cryptic...never been called gentle either so I'll take that too


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## TheBigShort (11 Nov 2016)

Liberal Democrats throwing their spanner into the Brexit works, Labour will follow.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...e-article-50-terms-lib-dems-second-referendum


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## Toledo (11 Nov 2016)

Rate was better on the date Trump got elected, but not bad at the moment, if the markets truly believe in a hard brexit, sterling will weaken further.


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## moneybox (11 Nov 2016)

Sterling outlook looking brighter 

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5725-gbp-to-eur-exchange-rate-boost


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## diver (5 Dec 2016)

To all followers of currency markets......

I'm planning a big holiday in 2018 and have just paid a small booking deposit in sterling to a UK travel company. They are now asking me whether I wish to continue paying the holiday off in euro or sterling over the duration of the next 20 months until travel time. I need to commit to whatever currency I wish to pay in now.

Any ideas on whether I should stick to euro or opt for sterling payments?

Thanks in advance for any opinions


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## moneybox (6 Dec 2016)

What is the amount involved?


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## diver (6 Dec 2016)

moneybox said:


> What is the amount involved?



Approx 7,000 euro, they haven't quoted a sterling price yet


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## dub_nerd (6 Dec 2016)

Stick to whatever currency you get paid in. That gives you certainty. The alternative is a gamble. An even bigger gamble is giving any company -- particularly a UK one -- seven grand that far in advance, unless you've made sure it's 100% fully bonded by ABTA.


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## Gerry Canning (6 Dec 2016)

Mugs game trying to 2nd guess when to buy.

Since June any mention of Hard Brexit and STG£ falls , on a softer Brexit STG£ stays @ about .84.
How are your  your dice throwing skills?


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## TheBigShort (10 Jun 2017)

diver said:


> Approx 7,000 euro, they haven't quoted a sterling price yet


Would an idea be to hold €3500 and the remainde in sterling? 
If sterling falls, use Euro account. If sterling rises use Stg account.


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## galway_blow_in (10 Jun 2017)

i think sterling is a relatively good buy right now , the ftse is slightly pricey however , were one to buy sterling and wait for a pullback in uk equities , could be a good strategy

a hard brexit is less likely after this election result


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