# Recession ahead? How to cope....



## Eurofan (30 May 2006)

A great deal of subject mater in 'Great Financial Debates' seems very pessimistic on the potential future of the Celtic Tiger for a wealth of various and intertwined reasons from property bubbles to reliance on the construction sector, exports controled by foreign owned multinationals etc. etc.

For the purposes of this debate lets _assume_ there's trouble ahead. How do you cope with it?

Other than the obvious things like paying down as much debt as possible now what would those who may have been through a recession before recommend? What kind of careers survive recessions? (other than public servants).

Would it be possible to make a good set of decisions now and not only survive a recession but be in a situation to thrive?


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## walk2dewater (30 May 2006)

Eurofan said:
			
		

> A great deal of subject mater in 'Great Financial Debates' seems very pessimistic on the potential future of the Celtic Tiger for a wealth of various and intertwined reasons from property bubbles to reliance on the construction sector, exports controled by foreign owned multinationals etc. etc.
> 
> For the purposes of this debate lets _assume_ there's trouble ahead. How do you cope with it?
> 
> ...


 
Take time out of the rat race, smell the roses?
Option 1: Recessions are good times to go back to/stay longer in school.

Option 2: take that long round the world trip you always wanted-- it'll be a whole lot cheaper.  Then maybe start Option 1.


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## shnaek (31 May 2006)

Don't put all your eggs in one basket either. Lots of people are invested in Irish property alone. Spread your risk.
Though joining the public service just in time would be a handy way out!


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## Afuera (31 May 2006)

Advertising and marketing guys are often the first to be dropped if things start to look hairy so if you're involved in that field it might be worth diversifying a bit.
The repossession business might have a bright future 

I'd second walk2dewater advice on going back to college. Investing in yourself this way will probably give you a much greater return than is otherwise possible during a downturn.


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## soma (31 May 2006)

Afuera said:
			
		

> The repossession business might have a bright future


To quote the simpsons.. "..but it's a golden age for the repo-business.. one which will never end.."

Tells you everthing you need you know about human psychology during a boom


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## mell61 (31 May 2006)

Well having done the redundancy thing twice due to jobs being shipped off to cheaper markets...
If you work for a big multi national take a look at the new improved factory / plant / site they are developing in outer mongolia, and consider if your job could be outsourced... Chances are that a lot of peoples roles are not linked to geographical location, so if they can get a body in a seat for 1/3 of the cost of you... you're potential cannon fodder for the profit margin!
Look around at what roles within your organisation aren't mobile - usually the sales guys can be hit but some are still needed to generate the cash flow the company needs. If there is research and development in your orgnaisation, can you get in there, they will be trying to generate the 'next big thing' so R&D can be impacted, but again its where they hope next years dosh will come from.
Try and get on all the training course that are being run, get up to speed on the current 'hot topics' in your industry, you want to talk todays talk if you need to go interviewing, not last years speak!
Start battoning down the hatches now, you need to get a firm grip of your finances, forget the '06 car, the exotic holidays, the new house / extension.... divert any spare cash into either paying off debts (unsecured like loans, credit card should be no 1 to clear), build up a contingency fund, be it x times your monthly take home, or a defined amount EU15-20k, easily accessible.

Then stand as a TD and using your political clout to employ everyone you ever knew in the civil servce.....   Ok the last one was probably not a go-er...   but in recession you need to think outside the box!!!


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## Eurofan (1 Jun 2006)

Interesting advice so far and thanks to those who've contributed.

Funnily enough i'm back in college full-time myself as a mature student and will be for potentially the next 3 years or so (depending on if i pursue the masters or not).

I sold my house last year and we are completely debt free with a six figure sum earning a little interest with Rabodirect though i'm considering diverting _some_ of that to gold.

My better half is 7 years with a semi-state and staying there at least until i finish college.

We're renting a nice house at a good rate (the landlord is family so security of tenancy too).

So if the worst happens we seem to be in good shape so far?

Interesting to note potential careers that would survive/thrive a recession. In another article (have lost the reference though sorry) there was a sad reflection that the alcohol trade always does exceptionally well during tough economic times. Any other careers/trades that would do well?


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## Duplex (1 Jun 2006)

Lipstick sales? 



http://www.wordspy.com/words/lipstickeffect.asp


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## kane3000 (1 Jun 2006)

Thats brilliant.

Economists take note - the best barometer for the performance of an economy is not the rate of construction projects but the volume of lipstick sales.

Eurofan, I think careers in areas that supply basic human needs is where to look-
- food + Drink (not restaurants etc. but basic food)
- communications, mobile telephony (people will always need to communicate no matter what the economic climate)
- Transport (commuter transport not holiday transport)
- Law

I think industries like Motoring, Designer Clothes,advertising + marketting, restaurants,airlines+travel, electronic goods are ones that take a hit.


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## evan (1 Jun 2006)

if there is a serious recession, does anyone fear violence. What Im saying is does anyone fear that people who did well out of the celtic tiger and preserved their wealth might be targeted by people that got burned by it. The reason why I am asking this is that the celtic tiger has been a relatively recent phenomenon and people that started out at the same level 10 years ago maybe at very different levels today. It wasnt a slow process like before where people would have accepted how the person generated their wealth.


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## ClubMan (1 Jun 2006)

No.


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## Eurofan (1 Jun 2006)

No but i could see the youth of Ireland bailing out of here on an unprecedented scale. Options throughout the EU are plentiful and much better than the UK/US options of old.

Myself and some friends talked about this some time ago (all related to property prices of course) and to my surprise the general consensous was that _if_ they genuinely found themselves in difficulty (i.e. negative equity, perhaps down one job, good times long gone) at least half of them would give serious thought to chucking the keys back to the bank and getting on the first plane out of here.

The late twenties and thirtysomethings in Ireland today have undertaken astonishing amounts of debt and rely totally on steady wage inflation and a booming economy.


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## bearishbull (1 Jun 2006)

theres plenty of room on the plane to china.


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## Thrifty (2 Jun 2006)

How to cope? i think its going to be harder for the generation coming up who maybe have never lacked material possessions. Saw in the local paper about one set of parents hiring a horse and carriage for their daughter's communion!!! Best way to cope with a recession is to have been brought up in the late seventies/ early eighties or earlier where you wore hand-me-down clothes, bought a bike with you communion money and cycled everywhere, were delighted to get a rubbish paying part-time job etc. To really long for an item of clothing, music tape etc and have to save for it..... i could go on.

I'm not saying want to go back to that just that life for younger people is much more revolved around money. Take it away and it may be hard for them to adjust not just to watching purse strings but to having an identity thats not based on what they have or haven't got materially.


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## lff12 (2 Jun 2006)

Eurofan said:
			
		

> What kind of careers survive recessions? (other than public servants).


 
I work for a subsidary of a German conglomerate that specialises in outsourced business/IT services.  I've noticed in a few dinners lately that the heads of lines of service are rubbing their hands together with glee at any indication of a turndown, as a recession generates (apparently) a lot of business for outsourcing.

Contrary to popular opinion, there is still a hell of a lot of outsourcing done in the home country (or increasing in other EU countries).  The new services directive will also effectively enable more public sector outsourcing to go outside the home country (also I note that in the UK/Ireland a lot of services are now considered to be independent agencies rather than state entities - eg Irish NCT, UK ONS - which has enabled outsourcing to non home countries in a few cases).


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## lff12 (2 Jun 2006)

evan said:
			
		

> if there is a serious recession, does anyone fear violence. What Im saying is does anyone fear that people who did well out of the celtic tiger and preserved their wealth might be targeted by people that got burned by it. The reason why I am asking this is that the celtic tiger has been a relatively recent phenomenon and people that started out at the same level 10 years ago maybe at very different levels today. It wasnt a slow process like before where people would have accepted how the person generated their wealth.


 
Very interesting point - apparently one of the biggest growth industries in highly unequal countries are "gated" communities - I found a programme on the BBC website that explored this trend from both perspectives.  What we could see is Johannesburg-like scenarios spreading worldwide . . .


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## evan (2 Jun 2006)

"No but i could see the youth of Ireland bailing out of here on an unprecedented scale. Options throughout the EU are plentiful and much better than the UK/US options of old."

where are those plentiful options? in germany!! france!! poland !!, I don't see them. Any opportunities that crop up there will be swiped up by the more hungry multi lingual eastern europeans than by the mono lingual irish. Irish people always had a great advantage in britain and the US but they don't have that advantage in european countries especially now that it is open to the new EU countries. There may be opportunities to invest in businesses there but that hardly applies to someone who has no capital and has already defaulted on debt in another country.


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## Afuera (2 Jun 2006)

evan said:
			
		

> "No but i could see the youth of Ireland bailing out of here on an unprecedented scale. Options throughout the EU are plentiful and much better than the UK/US options of old."
> 
> where are those plentiful options? in germany!! france!! poland !!, I don't see them. Any opportunities that crop up there will be swiped up by the more hungry multi lingual eastern europeans than by the mono lingual irish. Irish people always had a great advantage in britain and the US but they don't have that advantage in european countries especially now that it is open to the new EU countries. There may be opportunities to invest in businesses there but that hardly applies to someone who has no capital and has already defaulted on debt in another country.


Much international business is being conducted in English. I know of a Spanish company importing cars from Germany that uses English as the common language to negotiate things. Another Spanish friend used to have dealings in Tokyo and this again was all through English.
I would expect this to be quite common.

Also, there's nothing stopping the mono lingual Irish from becoming multi lingual Irish. It's not like it's a genetic condition or anything


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## HelloJed (2 Jun 2006)

I agree with Evan. Friends living in France and Germany report that it is very difficult to find work there, and their friends/family are in the same boat. One mate hates her job and has been looking to get out for three years, no luck yet and she has an excellent resume in the public and private sector, and would take absolutely _anything_ at this point. Work is just so scarce. ANY work. It's depressing.

Personally I've never had a problem finding work in Ireland...I thank my lucky stars that I'm working here. I hate to say it but a lot of people in Ireland don't know how lucky they are...even if there might be a downturn in the future, we've had a good run. The grass isn't always greener.


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## autumnleaf (14 Aug 2006)

A few industries that could benefit during a recession:
- Sales of baked beans, noodles, minced meat, and porridge 
- Car repair (because people will be keeping the old car in order rather than trading in)
- Bicycle sales and repair 
- Lagging jackets, timer switches, and other items that would decrease fuel and electricity wastage
- DVD rental (Hollywood did really well from the Great Depression when people wanted cheering up at a small cost)
- Caravan parks and other cheap-and-cheerful holidays (people will still want a break even if they can't afford 3 weeks in Thailand)
- Fads that are silly and amusing but low cost (see space hoppers, cabbage patch dolls, pet rocks, etc.) Hard to guess in advance what these will be tho!
- Dodgy fashions (see the '70s)


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## Persius (14 Aug 2006)

Regarding bailing out, it depends on whether the recession is just in Ireland, broadly across the english speaking countries or global. In the past some of the continental economies have done well while the likes of the UK and the US were in recession or doing badly. However things are more globalised now, so a recession may affect ALL countries. In that case emigration might not really be an option.

I agree with HelloJed that it's very tough to find work in Germany at the moment. That's partially due to their more formal culture regarding career paths. However it's also partially due to the fact that there's high unemployment there. IF a recession is localised and the German economy (no 1 exporters) should be unaffected and actually take off, then it may get easier to find work there.

Regarding language, not all Irish are monolingual. The Irish that do emigrate to non-english speaking countries generally do learn the local language (and are better at doing so than the Brits IMHO - something an english person also told me)


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## Barnes (17 Aug 2006)

America this year for the first since 1929 borrowed more than it earned thats a warning.    I think the big thing about talking up a recession, a lot of people can get jobs now - however as a previous poster commented the concept of saving for something doesn't exist now "instant gratification".  In a highly commercial society like Ireland - where 3 bedrooms houses are described as ideal starter homes - its the creation of expectation.

People who have a job and a house want a better job and a better house.  This leads to a level of frustation\unhappiness which leads to the type of comments "it cant last" or "the This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language is going to fall out of it soon" 
Some people writing on this site in 2001 were saying house prices were too high - if you had taken that advice then it would have been costly.

the bottom line is anyone concerned about paying a mortgage can sell now and remove the burden of that debt. 

As has been commented on I work a lot in France, Spain and Germany and those places are hurting - infrastructure aside I wouldnt swop here for there. 

the main thing in my experience is avoid ESRI\OECD Central banks the lot and do whats best for you - two words "TAKE CONTROL"


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## diarmuidc (17 Aug 2006)

Barnes said:


> As has been commented on I work a lot in France, Spain and Germany and those places are hurting - infrastructure aside I wouldnt swop here for there.



Having moved to France I would have to disagree.... Ireland got drunk on quick and easy money but the party could come to a sharp end. Large personal debt, hopeless infrastucture and a culture built on booze and shopping centers is not where I want to be at...  (flame on


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## CelloPoint (17 Aug 2006)

diarmuidc said:


> Having moved to France I would have to disagree.... Ireland got drunk on quick and easy money but the party could come to a sharp end. Large personal debt, hopeless infrastucture and a culture built on booze and shopping centers is not where I want to be at...  (flame on



Yup, I agree 100% with the drunkeness on borrowed money point. We're going to be the laughing stock of Europe/the world. And so the image of the 'drunken Irish fool' perpetuates itself. We were once a nation of saints and scholars, which we've turned our backs on in our quest for new-found-wealth. All we are left with now is one big cultural identity crisis that, as diarmuidc rightly points out, revolves around shopping centres, pubs and consumerism. A spike in O'Connell street exemplefies the ignorance of the Irish. We've had our chance and we've blown it.


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## Calina (17 Aug 2006)

Barnes said:


> As has been commented on I work a lot in France, Spain and Germany and those places are hurting - infrastructure aside I wouldnt swop here for there.



But in the medium term their growth is based on something a bit more solid than it is here - namely exports rather than consumer debt. I'd take France and Germany over Ireland as far as future prospects are concerned.


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## phoenix_n (17 Aug 2006)

CelloPoint said:


> Yup, I agree 100% with the drunkeness on borrowed money point. We're going to be the laughing stock of Europe/the world. And so the image of the 'drunken Irish fool' perpetuates itself. We were once a nation of saints and scholars, which we've turned our backs upon in our quest for new-found-wealth. All we are left with now is one big cultural identity crisis that, as diarmuidc rightly points out, revolves around shopping centres, pubs and consumerism. A spike in O'Connell street exemplefies the ignorance of the Irish. We've had our chance and we've blown it.


 
I like the spike to tell you the truth and vistors from abroad have commented on it aswell. To add a new structure to O'Connell is a very very difficult thing to do as you do not want to distract from the existing buildings. It had to be minimistic and it will stand the test of time. (IMO)

As regards the rest of your post, we are no different from any other country which went from been poor  (dont forget 50,000 people a year had to leave this country before) to playing catch up. When the money dries up and we become more european (and less boston) then the country will be on tract again.


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## Superman (17 Aug 2006)

Slightly off topic.
I remember some guys from Sheffield Steel giving a talk about their products in College a couple of years ago.
They were originally the guys who were to supply the stainless steel for the spike.  
Basically they were unhappy with the specification of stainless steel requested - since Dublin is close to the sea, they were afraid that salt in the air would cause the low specification stainless steel to rust.

When their request that a higher specification stainless steel was refused, they pulled out of the project as they didn't want their name associated with any potential future problems that would occur.  
I keep an eye on the spike with interest to see how it will age...


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## Persius (17 Aug 2006)

Calina said:


> But in the medium term their growth is based on something a bit more solid than it is here - namely exports rather than consumer debt. I'd take France and Germany over Ireland as far as future prospects are concerned.


 
In the medium term you may be right. At present it's doom and gloom in many continental economies with high unemployment. If you're living there, speak the lingo and are aware of what's going on, this can be quite depressing and get you down. IF Ireland goes into a recession in the next few years, and IF the recession is LOCAL, and does NOT affect our continental neighbours, then a move there might be a good bet in the medium term. However for the moment, I wouldn't be rushing over there as jobs are much easier to find here. You don't have to buy a house to live here, and if you put your mind to it, you can ignore the rampant drunken consumerism - there's more to the country than that ;-)


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## Bootdog (17 Aug 2006)

If there was a serious recession, people aged 25-35 would desert Ireland for the likes of Australia or NZ in their droves. They would typically be : not married, not have kids, and not really tied down - although they might have a big mortgage, sure let the bank have the keys back...

Most of this age-group have done it before, for a year or two at some stage, and wouldn't be afraid of doing it all again. As for the grass not always being greener, true, but at least there's sunshine in December!

More importantly, this is also the generation that is buying those record number of new homes, receiving the record mortgage approvals, getting the 100% mortgages, the 40-year loans ... i.e. the ones who will feel the pinch first.

If house prices started dropping 10% per year, I can't see many of these folks hanging around too long ... "sure wasn't the year in Sydney deadly craic!"


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## evan (18 Aug 2006)

Maybe if they have sought after skills this would be possible. However it is not that easy to emigrate to australia you are also competing with the brits and many others who see australia as being desirable. Ask the thousands of illegal irish there about immigration. It is also going down the american route of clamping down on illegal immigration. So the droves returning from australia might end up being bigger than the immigrants going there. Remember australia has a points system which is not all that easy to qualify for.


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## StoppedClock (18 Aug 2006)

evan said:


> Maybe if they have sought after skills this would be possible. However it is not that easy to emigrate to australia you are also competing with the brits and many others who see australia as being desirable. Ask the thousands of illegal irish there about immigration. It is also going down the american route of clamping down on illegal immigration. So the droves returning from australia might end up being bigger than the immigrants going there. Remember australia has a points system which is not all that easy to qualify for.


 
But 4 year extended business visas are pretty easy to get these can usually be extended for further 4 years.


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## phoenix_n (18 Aug 2006)

evan said:


> Maybe if they have sought after skills this would be possible. However it is not that easy to emigrate to australia you are also competing with the brits and many others who see australia as being desirable. Ask the thousands of illegal irish there about immigration. It is also going down the american route of clamping down on illegal immigration. So the droves returning from australia might end up being bigger than the immigrants going there. Remember australia has a points system which is not all that easy to qualify for.


 
I have always put a value of about 100K on my aussie passport because if ireland should implode i'll need it quickly.


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## evan (18 Aug 2006)

Yea there pretty easy if you have already run a business here and have money to invest there. again that does not apply to alot of people and hardly to the 25-35 year old demographic. If you have a successful business in ireland you are not going to want to ditch it for australia. Basically australia wants the type of people who are least likely to go there


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## rabbit (26 Aug 2006)

bearishbull said:


> theres plenty of room on the plane to china.


 
...and unfortunately 1 billion Chinese when you get there, who naturally enough are not going to worry too much about keeping a decadent westerner - who knows no foreign languages - in the style to which he/she has become accustomed.   Tis the reality.


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## Bootdog (26 Aug 2006)

On the Australia thing, interesting article in todays independent about recruitment drive to get accountants down under:
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1677443&issue_id=14568

"Engineers, electrical estimators, draftsmen and bakers [bankers???] are also in high demand in all parts of the country, particularly regional areas."


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## bogwarrior (26 Aug 2006)

Bootdog said:


> "Engineers, electrical estimators, draftsmen and bakers [bankers???] are also in high demand in all parts of the country, particularly regional areas."



no, that probably is bakers....the 'skills required' list from DIMIA (dept of immigration in aus) can be quite eclectic at times!


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## annR (28 Aug 2006)

You have to be a particular type of person to want to settle down in Australia's "regional areas".


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## SmallPrint (28 Aug 2006)

For some more down to earth creative suggestions, check out some of the following links to find out how people are managing quite comfortably on an average of 20% less income.

www.simpleliving.net or www.newamericandream.org 

Or if you want to give it all up for something in the Irish countryside, check out www.sustainable.ie or www.thevillage.ie 

Last time I checked (a couple of months ago), you could buy a new-build family home for under €150k in Cloughjordan (Co Tipperary), or purchase your own site to build an eco-home.

There are many options no matter what your choice of (financial) lifestyle.  And as they say, even if you win the rat race, you're still a rat!


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## bogwarrior (29 Aug 2006)

StoppedClock said:


> But 4 year extended business visas are pretty easy to get these can usually be extended for further 4 years.



yeah, but they've got pretty severe work restrictions with those visas now (they tightened up the laws in 2003).  Also, people who would qualify for a four year business visa would probably qualify for 'permanent residency' anyway


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## dontaskme (29 Aug 2006)

Australia is also a lot more expensive to get to, compared with low cost flights to Uk and Europe.

Within Europe there is also the advantage of more harmonisation between social welfare and pension benefits.

However, one obvious disadvantage within Europe is the languages. While English is universal business language, as a native speaker I often have to repeat myself when talking to a non-native speaker.

Another problem is different tax and accounting systems so that an accountant or hr person trained and working in Ireland does not really have a transferable skillset to Europe, whereas it is more easily transferable to Uk, the States or Australia.


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## wiggzie (2 Sep 2006)

rabbit said:


> ...and unfortunately 1 billion Chinese when you get there, who naturally enough are not going to worry too much about keeping a decadent westerner - who knows no foreign languages - in the style to which he/she has become accustomed. Tis the reality.


 
english would be a foreign language - to them.


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## macbri (4 Sep 2006)

To give  to u some backgroung on Australia from over here,there is continual coverage of skill shortages especially in trades(due to mining boom in wa) ,nurses,IT and hairdressers.The younger u apply the easier it is to get in providing that your skill is on their shortage list(Australia primarily aims for 25-34 demographic group).In fact,if u are over 45 u can't apply.

As well accountancy is another category where theres' a severe skill shortage and u can really see that in contract rates here in sydney at the moment(thats' category that I came out on).

Application process in 2003 took me the guts of 6-9 months but if has been worthwhile although I knew a few people who have got homesick and returned to uk/swaeden respectively.

Theres' definately a change in focus now in targeting skilled immigrants to western australia and queensland due to mining/construction boom in those states.This definately would have been a drawback to me if these conditions applied when I got the visa in 2003.


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## evan (4 Sep 2006)

annR said:


> You have to be a particular type of person to want to settle down in Australia's "regional areas".


 
Yea city slickers need not apply. Drinking is also a big part of life there (in the regional areas) and I mean serious drinking even more so than ireland.


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