# Is this the long talked about correction?



## Ihana (1 Aug 2014)

Cannot link but Irish times article "european-shares-hit-three-month-low-over-ukraine-tensions"

"Technical charts sent a strong negative signal on Germany’s Dax benchmark, with the index breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time in two years."

"Investors have also been worrying about the impact of sanctions against Russia. This week, the European Union and the United States targeted its energy, banking and defence sectors in the strongest international action yet over Moscow’s support for rebels in eastern Ukraine."

"Adding to the negative mood, investors expect strong US monthly job data to strengthen the case for an early interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve."

I have some money on deposit from sale of shares which I want to invest.  Think I will just hold for the time being...


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## Jim2007 (1 Aug 2014)

Here is the link: European shares hit three-month low over Ukraine tensions

When reading such articles I would suggest that you replace the word investor with non-investor.  Why because the only people that should be playing these kind of games are traders, market times, chancers and so on.

I have access to the order books on sever all European markets and I don't see much investor activity in this respect.  What I do see is lots of action by traders, hedge funds etc.... in other words the usual chancers!

Investors look at the long term position rather than month to month and the fact is that the STOXX 50 index is up about 19% over the last three years and even after the current sell off the price is still in the upper end of it's 52 week high, so if you've been dollar cost averaging on an ETF, which you should be doing, then you are noting to be seeing any dramatic change on your quarterly investment reports.  Which is what most investor look at and get concerned about.

There is no good or bad time to invest.  If you are an ETF type investor it just means that this month/quarter your money will by you more shares in the ETF and if you are an investor in individual stocks it may present you with an opportunity to load up on some undervalued stocks.


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## Ihana (1 Aug 2014)

Jim2007 said:


> When reading such articles I would suggest that you replace the word investor with non-investor.  Why because the only people that should be playing these kind of games are traders, market times, chancers and so on.



Fair enough.



> Investors look at the long term position rather than month to month and the fact is that the STOXX 50 index is up about 19% over the last three years and even after the current sell off the price is still in the upper end of it's 52 week high, so if you've been dollar cost averaging on an ETF, which you should be doing, then you are noting to be seeing any dramatic change on your quarterly investment reports.  Which is what most investor look at and get concerned about.
> 
> There is no good or bad time to invest.  If you are an ETF type investor it just means that this month/quarter your money will by you more shares in the ETF and if you are an investor in individual stocks it may present you with an opportunity to load up on some undervalued stocks.



Not sure I agree with this now.  I would obviously prefer to go in when lower rather than higher.  Will be new to ETF thing and would like to get off to a good start.  As for quarterly investment reports?  lol! (for now at least) maybe in a few years.


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## Jim2007 (1 Aug 2014)

Ihana said:


> Not sure I agree with this now.  I would obviously prefer to go in when lower rather than higher.



So how will you know when it is the right time?


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## Ihana (1 Aug 2014)

Obviously I cant answer that question.  Watch the markets and go with my gut and hope for the best I suppose.  I am also not set up to make a move yet but will be in coming weeks.  I have small amounts put in funds through my bank but want to set up some lower cost options.


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## Ihana (8 Aug 2014)

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28701430

The markets are still reeling.  

Interesting to follow this and see how my little experimental funds are responding.  (I am down 23 euro on my 600 euro investment!)


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## Rory Gillen (17 Aug 2014)

Market timing is extremely difficult and very few technical indicators have any track record to mention, although a few are better than others. The one technical indicator I have come to appreciate more than any is 'Capitulation'. When everyone is selling together prices accelerate downwards in an often frightening manner, but it often highlights the bottom of a market or the start of a bottoming process. Measuring the acceleration of a decline provides you with a 'Capitulation' indicator. But it's not for discussion here (take too long).

Values are the only true timer, but using values to time your entry is very imprecise, and understanding how to value an asset is tricky. And, of course, value is relative. In times of high interest rates the values you can get in markets will (have to) be better. In times of low interest rates, it will be hard to get even the historical average values. 

I firmly believe that having a strategy that you understand and stick with is key. If you are a regular investor and have a 5-10 year horizon then you don't have to overly concern yourself with values or timing in general. Better just to diversify. Investing regularly overtime will see you obtain good value as well as bad, but you'll most likely end up with the average values, and average returns on offer. The key is to stick with it through good and bad times. Many give up just when values are best.

I'm not so sure I'd leave it to 'gut' instinct. Read and learn. In between, there's nothing wrong with a global equity fund (ETF or actively managed or both). It covers a lot of bases.

Rory Gillen
Founder
GillenMarkets.com


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## Ihana (18 Aug 2014)

Thanks for that.  

I think I am ready to go now with a larger investment. Have 5000 euro for long timespan. (it is proceeds of some shares I was given by my parents)

Is it a bad idea to put it all into vanguard S&P500 growth through td waterhouse? Or should I split it between two or more funds?.


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## Rory Gillen (19 Aug 2014)

Can't see a reason why you would invest in the S&P 500 alone? The US equity market is now overvalued (probably by some way) relative to history. Perhaps consider a global equity ETF - it would have a circa 53% weighting in US equities and 47% elsewhere.


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## Ihana (21 Aug 2014)

Ok.  Just made first investments with TD waterhouse.  Half in a share, Half in euro stoxx 50 ETF GBP acc..  

More next month.  Going to educate myself as much as I can now.  Most of my savings are still on deposit but I am not going to invest it all in one go or in one place.


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