# What age is at risk if there is no underlying medical condition?



## Brendan Burgess (10 Mar 2020)

I was surprised that a healthy young man like myself, aged only 62 1/2 , is deemed to be more at risk of serious illness.









						People at higher risk from COVID-19
					

Advice for people at higher risk from COVID-19 (coronavirus), including older people and people with health conditions.




					www2.hse.ie
				



_
There are some groups of people who may be more at risk of serious illness if they catch coronavirus. But we do not think these groups have a higher risk of catching coronavirus. This is similar to other infections such as flu.

It is likely you are more at risk of serious illness if you catch coronavirus and you are one of the following:
_

_60 years of age and over._
_Have a long-term medical condition – for example, heart disease, lung disease, diabetes, cancer or high blood pressure._


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## Brendan Burgess (10 Mar 2020)

Update: 

This is the most useful graph I have found  and it seems to include those with pre-existing issues. 









						Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk
					

The deadliness of the virus advances progressively with the age of the patient, research suggests.



					www.bbc.com


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## Brendan Burgess (10 Mar 2020)

An interesting New Scientist article 









						Coronavirus: Risk of death rises with age, diabetes and heart disease
					

People who have the new coronavirus are more likely to die if they are older or show signs of sepsis or blood clotting problems, suggests a study of patients in two Wuhan hospitals




					www.newscientist.com
				




_Death was more likely in people who already had diabetes or coronary heart disease. Older people were more likely to die, as were those showing signs of sepsis or blood clotting problems. Overall, more than half of those hospitalised with the virus developed sepsis.

“Poorer outcomes in older people may be due, in part, to the age-related weakening of the immune system and increased inflammation that could promote viral replication and more prolonged responses to inflammation, causing lasting damage to the heart, brain and other organs,” said study co-author Zhibo Liu at Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan._


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## odyssey06 (10 Mar 2020)

Breakdown of China's figures here by age and by co-morbidity - remember these are for those who are infected, it does not show your overall risk of getting infected and dying:

_Co-morbidities also raise the risk of dying from Covid-19. China CDC’s analysis of 44,672 patients found that* the fatality rate in patients who reported no other health conditions was 0.9%*. It was 10.5% for those with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for those with diabetes, 6.3% for people with chronic respiratory diseases such as COPD, 6.0% for people with hypertension, and 5.6% for those with cancer. _








						Who is getting sick, and how sick? A breakdown of coronavirus risk by demographic factors
					

The new coronavirus is not an equal-opportunity killer. Here's what research has shown about who might be most at risk.




					www.statnews.com


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## Brendan Burgess (10 Mar 2020)

Hi Odyssey 

That is close to what I am looking for.

The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39. 


80+  15% mortality
70's
60's
50's 1.3% 
40's  0.4% 
Aged 10 - 39: 0.2% 

But these include underlying conditions which are more common as you get older. 

I would like to know the fatality rate for people in their 60s without an underlying condition. 

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (10 Mar 2020)

From the Centre for Disease Control 

“This seems to be a disease that affects adults and older adults. Starting at age 60, there is an increasing risk of disease.” Messonnier continued to emphasize that the risk of serious illness — and death — increases with individuals older than the age of 80. Serious underlying health conditions are likely to have bad outcomes as well, such as heart or lung disease, or diabetes.


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## Saavy99 (10 Mar 2020)

Coronavirus death rate: What are the chances of dying?
					

The current best guess of a 1% death rate does not apply to everyone.



					www.google.com
				




That might help.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (10 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> I would like to know the fatality rate for people in their 60s without an underlying condition.



That would need a well-specified multivariate regression with a big sample size.

I doubt that there is enough data of reliable quality yet to run this. Also, mortality rate is itself unreliable itself given:

Lag between infection and death
Treatment received may vary
Testing rates that vary from place to place


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## odyssey06 (10 Mar 2020)

I can't find a definitive answer.
The baseline risk is 0.9% for no other health conditions.
The risk for those aged 60-69 both with and without conditions is 3.6%.

Your risk therefore is somewhere between 0.9% - 3.6%, likely on the lower end of that range.

I read a second hand account from a doctor in Italy that priority for severe patients was being assigned to those under 65 without underlying medical conditions.


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## Purple (10 Mar 2020)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> That would need a well-specified multivariate regression with a big sample size.
> 
> I doubt that there is enough data of reliable quality yet to run this. Also, mortality rate is itself unreliable itself given:
> 
> ...


Yep, we'll have to wait until more people die of it to get enough data for meaningful analysis.


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## Brendan Burgess (10 Mar 2020)

One has to make decisions based on the best available information. 

This might not be perfect, but it's highly indicative.


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## Fidgety (10 Mar 2020)

Risk of dying if infected with Covid-19:

60-69 years of age 3.6%
70-79 years of age 8.0%

Source: worldometers.info

Sorry, I don’t know how to post the link. 

In line with your chart Brendan.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (10 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> One has to make decisions based on the best available information.
> 
> This might not be perfect, but it's highly indicative.
> 
> View attachment 4354



Bear in mind baseline in China includes appalling urban air quality and a very high male smoking rate. These leave your lungs in poor quality before you get the virus.

Neither of those risk factors apply to a non-smoker living in Ireland.


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## demoivre (10 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> One has to make decisions based on the best available information.
> 
> This might not be perfect, but it's highly indicative.
> 
> View attachment 4354



This includes people with comorbidities. Your thread title refers to "no underlying medical condition".

Up to yesterday the death rates in countries with more than 100 cases was zero in Germany, Sweden, Belgium, Norway, Singapore, Malaysia, Austria and Bahrain.

The death rate is not constant and is multifactorial, as alluded to above by _Noregretscoyote._


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## jpd (10 Mar 2020)

What is the chance of getting infected?

The population of Hubei province is approx 60m and there are 80,000+ cases so can you now say the chance of being infected is 0.13%

If infected the chance of dying is as shown in the graph


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## shweeney (10 Mar 2020)

I thought I'd heard the death rate in Korea was much lower, but from a higher infection rate because they're testing more people so detecting more people with mild/no symptoms. Swings and roundabouts I guess...


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## Brendan Burgess (10 Mar 2020)

I was talking to a friend of mine who is the same age as myself.

He said that as the numbers infected now are so low, each one gets individual care. 

But if and when there are 100,000 or 1m people in Ireland infected, it won't be possible to isolate them all and the death rate will probably rise.

Brendan


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## shweeney (10 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> I was talking to a friend of mine who is the same age as myself.
> 
> He said that as the numbers infected now are so low, each one gets individual care.
> 
> ...



this is the worry - it wouldn't take much to overwhelm the health system; most of the measures seem to be aimed at slowing down the rate of infection.


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## Sophrosyne (10 Mar 2020)

There are many reputable websites dealing with the coronavirus.

I find this one _Our World in Data_ from Oxford University informative and readable.

It explains what we can and cannot infer from data and situation reports.

Regarding death rates it states:

*Measuring and interpreting the case fatality rate*

It is important to understand the measurement challenges to understand what the case fatality rate can and cannot tell us about a disease outbreak.

There is no single case fatality rate for a disease – it is context-specific, changing with time and location

Unfortunately, it is common to report the CFR as a single value. But the CFR is not a biological constant. The CFR is not a value which is tied to the given disease, but is instead reflective of the severity of the disease _in a particular context, at a particular time, in a particular population._

The probability that someone dies from a disease is not only dependent on the disease itself, but also the social and individual response to it: the level and timing of treatment they receive, and the ability of the given individual to recover from it.

This means that the CFR can decrease or increase over time, and that it can vary by location and by the characteristics of the infected population (age, sex, pre-existing conditions).


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## Brendan Burgess (10 Mar 2020)

jpd said:


> can you now say the chance of being infected is 0.13%



I don't think so.  That is the rate in China to date.  It doesn't really tell us much about the future.

Brendan


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## SPC100 (10 Mar 2020)

Other models suggested 60 percent of population would get infected. China has taken very extreme measures.

And the rates there are also only for people known to be infected. Many cases are mild and will not have been tested.


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## Hooverfish (10 Mar 2020)

I think this lays out a lot of the factors and controversies related to disease, immunity and ageing, but it's probably tldr; for this forum?


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## Saavy99 (11 Mar 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> I was surprised that a healthy young man like myself, aged only 62 1/2 , is deemed to be more at risk of serious illness.











						People at higher risk from COVID-19
					

Advice for people at higher risk from COVID-19 (coronavirus), including older people and people with health conditions.




					www2.hse.ie
				




_You would not be considered a healthy young man at 62, in fact you are now elderly and in the high risk group should you catch this virus._


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## Brendan Burgess (12 Mar 2020)

Thanks Saavy

What I was trying to establish was the difference between an elderly 60 something and and elderly 90 something.

I think that we established that earlier on in the thread. 

The HSE's saying "people over 60 are at risk" isn't very useful.

Brendan


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## XMarks (12 Mar 2020)

In Italy the median age of the 600 people in ICU is 65, more young people lately.  They all have pneumonia resulting in acute respiratory failure. I hope the HSE have been stocking up on oxygen/ventilators. If we don’t have enough, it doesn’t really matter what age you are.


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## almostthere (12 Mar 2020)

Many grand parents mind their grand children while their parents are at work.   We have read that young children can carry illnesses that may be mild for the grand child but not so mild for the grand parent if passed on.
It can be difficult for the grand parent to say "no" to their children when asked to mind their grand child. As a result they may be putting themselves at risk. Older people are being asked to stay indoors as much as possible. But what happens if the children and grandchildren actually bring this virus in to their homes.

Is it not possible for the government to intervene here as I have no doubt that in the course of time creches will be closing down and more pressure will be put on grand parents to mind their grand children.
Could the government put in place a system where one parent might be allowed to take leave from work to mind children without compromising their job security and their present and future social welfare entitlements.


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## RedOnion (12 Mar 2020)

almostthere said:


> Could the government put in place a system where one parent might be allowed to take leave from work to mind children without compromising their job security and their present and future social welfare entitlements.


A mechanism already exists for this. It's called parental leave.


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## almostthere (12 Mar 2020)

RedOnion said:


> A mechanism already exists for this. It's called parental leave.


This is not always available. I think that the government could introduce some sort of system whereby employers would not lose out, maybe even cancel employers PRSI contributions. I am just throwing it out there.

Unsettling to read that in Italy those people aged under 65 may get first call on medical help ahead of those aged over 65.

We are being told that older people are at risk more so than younger people. Should grand children be kept in their own homes rather than their grand parents homes.









						Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics  (COVID-19) - Worldometer
					

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China




					www.worldometers.info
				












						COVID Live Update: 142,072,345 Cases and 3,034,587 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


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## RedOnion (12 Mar 2020)

almostthere said:


> This is not always available. I think that the government could introduce some sort of system whereby employers would not lose out, maybe even cancel employers PRSI contributions. I am just throwing it out there.


Sorry, I must be misreading what you're saying.
If I take parental leave, I don't get paid so there's no employers PRSI due.
If the government need to bring in emergency measures, all that's needed is a change to the terms of the existing parental leave mechanism (e.g. increase qualifying age of children), rather than something completely new.


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## almostthere (12 Mar 2020)

With creches and schools now due to close, will other family members including the, at higher risk grand parents, be expected to take up the child minding duties.









						People at higher risk from COVID-19
					

Advice for people at higher risk from COVID-19 (coronavirus), including older people and people with health conditions.




					www2.hse.ie
				




It seems strange that the HSE would post the above, about at risk groups, but not factor in where all the school children and infants will be minded or even put in place some sort of guidelines about this.


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## dereko1969 (12 Mar 2020)

almostthere said:


> With creches and schools now due to close, will other family members including the, at higher risk grand parents, be expected to take up the child minding duties.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


....sorry, was being unsympathetic


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## Odea (12 Mar 2020)

An old newspaper article but still relevant.









						Grandparents' health being put at risk as almost half get ill from babysitting
					

The perils of grandparents babysitting have been revealed in a survey, which found nearly half of them caught a cold from a sick grandchild.




					www.telegraph.co.uk


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## Purple (12 Mar 2020)

almostthere said:


> With creches and schools now due to close, will other family members including the, at higher risk grand parents, be expected to take up the child minding duties.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


As small children don't get sick, even if they have the virus, they are far less likely than older people to give it to anyone else.


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## Ceist Beag (12 Mar 2020)

Purple said:


> As small children don't get sick, even if they have the virus, they are far less likely than older people to give it to anyone else.


Can they not transmit it like anyone else Purple, even if they themselves don't get sick from it? I would have thought small children would be a big risk of passing it on given how they won't have same level of understanding of hand hygiene and cough etiquette as the rest of us.
We are keeping our children away from their grandparents right now.


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## Purple (12 Mar 2020)

Ceist Beag said:


> Can they not transmit it like anyone else Purple, even if they themselves don't get sick from it? I would have thought small children would be a big risk of passing it on given how they won't have same level of understanding of hand hygiene and cough etiquette as the rest of us.
> We are keeping our children away from their grandparents right now.


They are less likely to cough on people etc but yes, they do tend to be quite tactile.


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## Brendan Burgess (13 Mar 2020)

I heard a report on the radio that the HSE is now saying that people aged 50+ are at risk.

I am not sure how useful that is.  They do need to distinguish between 50+ and 90+ 

All ages are at risk - it's a matter of degree.

Brendan


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