# Now is probably a good time to start buying shares



## therock (3 Nov 2008)

I think now is a good time to buy shares, others might disagree, that's their right.

The cycle so far as I can see it was like this...great banking uncertainty leading to a dramatic drop in banking share prices...the uncertainty is slowly resolving itself in an ongoing way...the share prices are bottoming out with the decline in certainty....

The longer things are settled and the longer that banks aren't going under the more confidence investors will have in banks...this will lead to them buying up more shares in these banks driving the price higher...

As for the rest of the market, again the uncertainty seems to be coming to an end and in 2009 the market will imo pick up again...

I don't see share prices going much lower than they are today...


----------



## z109 (3 Nov 2008)

On what do you base this?
Fundamental analysis?
Technical analysis?
Gut feeling?
Forward earnings?
Trailing P/E?
Cat entrails?
Interest rate movements?
Recessionary sentiment?
The oracle at Delphi?

And which shares? All markets or just some? What about emerging markets? What about Iceland, are its shares a buy now? 

Rarely does such a short statement annoy me so much.


----------



## therock (3 Nov 2008)

yoganmahew said:


> On what do you base this?
> Fundamental analysis?
> Technical analysis?
> Gut feeling?
> ...



I'm not going into detail, did the oracle of Delphi go into detail?


----------



## z109 (3 Nov 2008)

therock said:


> I'm not going into detail, did the oracle of Delphi go into detail?


The messages from the pythoness were gnomic. There is no doubt as to the meaning of your message.


----------



## cancan (3 Nov 2008)

> I don't see share prices going much lower than they are today...


 
I love internet predictions.



> The longer things are settled and the longer that banks aren't going under the more confidence investors will have in banks...this will lead to them buying up more shares in these banks driving the price higher...


 
You are betting whether a drowning man (banks), will stay afloat, based on him being saved by another drowning man (gov).

Thats a lot of non-swimming ability in the same stormy water....

Lets put it this way - I wouldn't be sending them to the olympics to represent us in swimming just yet....


----------



## therock (3 Nov 2008)

cancan said:


> I love internet predictions.



What exactly is that supposed to mean?? How else am I supposed to predict, with smoke signals?

The internet is the medium, the message comes as a considered opinion.

The banking frenzy has settled imo, in yours it hasn't...

I would like a more in depth reply from you though, citing why you think the stock market has further to fall, rather than sounding off platitudes.


----------



## cancan (3 Nov 2008)

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081103/20081103006219.html?.v=1
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081103/auto_sales.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081103/economy.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081103/as_china_economy.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081103/s_p_equity_markets.html

I'd be guessing that none of these stories just from today are good news.
I'd be looking for a bit more good news before going swimming myself.

Oh - and this one is not good either...

http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/11/likely-s-p-500-bottom-600-down-40-from-here


----------



## therock (4 Nov 2008)

I think you might agree with me that economies don't turn around over night. The turn of a large economy is like the turning of a large oil tanker. It's not sharp and it's not fast.

First it must grind to a halt, then you have to turn the wheel and a few seconds later the bow begins to turn. Well that's the analagy with the big ship.

There will be a lag of course as there always is. The economy bottoms out. Then the jobless figures come in and it shows that more jobs were created last month than were lost, that's how it starts. With more jobs comes more consumer spending leading to retailers taking on more employees. 

Demand for houses begins to grow again and fewer people are foreclosing. Of course this turnaround doesn't happen over a few days or weeks but over several quarters. 

Once an economy turns around whether in the States or here, it will take a long time before people are certain it has turned around. 

But I believe that we are reaching the bottom of the cycle and the slow turnaround is not far off. Call it an educated guess.

With increased jobs comes demand for oil, banking services such as mortgages, commodities such as gold and other services such as airline flights.


----------



## askalot (4 Nov 2008)

therock said:


> With increased jobs comes demand for oil, banking services such as mortgages, commodities such as gold and other services such as airline flights.



But aren't estimates for next year all predicting a rather steep increase in unemployment?


----------



## depression (4 Nov 2008)

The original post reminds me of something Tom Parlon said or perhaps what this guy wrote below:


----------



## Bronte (4 Nov 2008)

yoganmahew said:


> The messages from the pythoness were gnomic. There is no doubt as to the meaning of your message.


pythoness being gnomic ??? and what is the oracle of Delphi?? for us mere mortals who are share illiterate


----------



## z109 (4 Nov 2008)

Bronte said:


> pythoness being gnomic ??? and what is the oracle of Delphi?? for us mere mortals who are share illiterate


Dead.


----------



## tiger (4 Nov 2008)

I can see where "therock" is coming from.
Investors who are only looking at the last 10 years or so of history will see that after shocks like the dot-com fallout and 9-11, most shares recovered pretty well and pretty quickly.
Unfortunately I think we have a much bigger shock here & could be looking at something like the '70s where the Dow Jones was basically flat for an entire decade.


----------



## johnnygman (4 Nov 2008)

therock said:


> I think now is a good time to buy shares, others might disagree, that's their right.
> 
> The cycle so far as I can see it was like this...great banking uncertainty leading to a dramatic drop in banking share prices...the uncertainty is slowly resolving itself in an ongoing way...the share prices are bottoming out with the decline in certainty....
> 
> ...


 
Seriously mate? 
Here is a quote from one of your responses to why you should stop paying into a long term PRSA/pension market based fund account on 16/10/2008
you argued with me black and blue against the markets etc how can you justify this kind of turnaround and poor advice that you obv dont believe in but are totally swayed by market sentiment.



			
				therock said:
			
		

> "It is the correct strategy in the long term, but an improvement on that strategy is to suspend your payments until the market hits rock bottom...the general consensus among the 'experts' here and in the US (following the news helps!) is that we are in a period of great uncertainty similar to 1929. So now is not the time to put your eggs into the stock market, through a PRSA or anything else. "


 
How fickle is that, have you suddenly seen the light and completely changed your outlook and investment strategy 


P.S i love this bit from earlier.. no offence,  from today -.. 





			
				therock said:
			
		

> But I believe that we are reaching the bottom of the cycle and the slow turnaround is not far off. Call it an educated guess."


 
Top stuff lol

Maybe you should take your own advice and read the news because i can assure that i do for whats its worth.


----------



## iggy (4 Nov 2008)

Bronte said:


> pythoness being gnomic ??? and what is the oracle of Delphi?? for us mere mortals who are share illiterate


 I wanna know about the cat entrails!!!


----------



## therock (4 Nov 2008)

johnnygman said:


> Seriously mate?
> Here is a quote from one of your responses to why you should stop paying into a long term PRSA/pension market based fund account on 16/10/2008
> you argued with me black and blue against the markets etc how can you justify this kind of turnaround and poor advice that you obv dont believe in but are totally swayed by market sentiment.
> 
> ...




When we were dicussing that, the markets were in a rapid downward spiral and you were telling people to invest away in a rapidly declining market so I don't really think I have to justify what I said to you.

If people heeded your advice they would have lost a lot of money since no-one should buy into a market which is in freefall...the market today has stabilised and its near the bottom...that is the time you should invest...not a couple of weeks ago.

There is no contradiction in what I said, If you saw it that way, thats your problem not mine.


----------



## therock (4 Nov 2008)

To futher elaborate for those not familiar with the bigger picture of economics, economies are like elastic bands. They grow and stretch until they can go no further and then they start to contract until they can contract no further and then they grow again.

Against the background I don't believe economies can contract much further, because there are changes afoot in the US with a new president and a new determination to get the economy back on track again. If it's a Democratic president, they are always better than a Republican administration and the last time the Democrats were in the Whitehouse, it was the start of record returns on the Dow Jones.

Now that's my opinion, if people have other opinions that's great, but maybe they can be a bit more scientific in explaining why they think the US for example is in for a long period of decline, and not just quoting snapshots beloved of newspapers.


----------



## johnnygman (4 Nov 2008)

therock said:


> When we were dicussing that, the markets were in a rapid downward spiral and you were telling people to invest away in a rapidly declining market so I don't really think I have to justify what I said to you.
> 
> If people heeded your advice they would have lost a lot of money since no-one should buy into a market which is in freefall...the market today has stabilised and its near the bottom...that is the time you should invest...not a couple of weeks ago.
> 
> There is no contradiction in what I said, If you saw it that way, thats your problem not mine.


 
This is lovely stuff the defence of the indefenceable lol classic,

By the way if anyone hasnt seen the thread here is the shortcut
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=94516
You may note that i advised investment in a market based PRSA for the long term, and also advised on the deposit based option for someone who did not want to take risk but still wanted to get the tax relief which you also could not seem to grasp.

In the space of 2 weeks!! is this long term investing to you for retirement? as that is what i was advising...... you have now gone from worst period since 1929 to magical rebound blah.. blah
Id take an eduacated guess as you say and state that you have not got a clue furthermore you have totally made a fool of yourself with this thread in relation to your earlier stance m8 thats the reality



therock said:


> If people heeded your advice they would have lost a lot of money since no-one should buy into a market which is in freefall...the market today has stabilised and its near the bottom...that is the time you should invest...not a couple of weeks ago..


 
The above is just plain ridiculous if there is any sense left in your head you will admit as much and surely acknowledge the glaring errors in your advice over the last few weeks and admit that your viewpoints are based purely on speculation as oposed any type of sound investment strategy.
Im only pointing this out to you as you were quick to jump on me, i kind of feel sorry for you now as you have been embarrassed here 
Please dont take it to heart we have all made mistakes..

Definition of Fickle person *fickle* - liable to sudden unpredictable change; "erratic behavior"; "fickle weather"; "mercurial twists of temperament"; "a quicksilver character, cool and willful at one moment, utterly fragile the next"


----------



## therock (4 Nov 2008)

johnnygman said:


> This is lovely stuff the defence of the indefenceable lol classic,
> 
> By the way if anyone hasnt seen the thread here is the shortcut
> http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=94516
> ...



I will explain this simply for your benefit...if someone put a 400 euro PRSA payment into the stock market when you said they should, they would be down to about 200 euro now. If they followed my advice and held off, they would still have the 400 euro which they could now invest in cheaper shares.

Obviously you have a vested interest in getting people to use your tax advice and obviously you don't care if people lose all their money in their pensions so long as you get a cut from it.

It's common sense to buy shares at their cheapest and sell at their dearest. A lot of people lost money in the recent share price collapses, many of them nearing retirement...whether they can make it up before or during retirement is the question. 

But if people had their PRSA invested in the market and kept investing when you said they should, they would now be down a lot of money...if they held off until now when shares are 50% or more cheaper, they would then be in a far better place going forward.

And because you are a vested interest, everyone who disagrees with you, you will call a fool, even though the real fool is you.


----------



## johnnygman (4 Nov 2008)

therock said:


> I will explain this simply for your benefit...if someone put a 400 euro PRSA payment into the stock market when you said they should, they would be down to about 200 euro now. If they followed my advice and held off, they would still have the 400 euro which they could now invest in cheaper shares.
> 
> Obviously you have a vested interest in getting people to use your tax advice and obviously you don't care if people lose all their money in their pensions so long as you get a cut from it.
> 
> ...


 

Look it might be best if you changed your sign on name as you are clearly delerious and have no undertanding of markets or pensions.
As for the lovely figure of 400 as a single one off premium yes id advised everyone to go and invest 400 euro on that given date i admit it it was totally wrong, i would also have advised people to do this about 2 weeks before retirement in order to screw them even more.
By the way how did you work out that in the space of those 2 weeks they would have lost 50% of the value just curious as im getting a good laugh off this, you should write a book as i as i believe it would be a best seller in the comedy section.

You seem like a well meaning person so i am not trying to upset you but you would be best of sticking to the gardening section or perhaps BEBO or the like, please do not keep insinuating that i am a vested interest as this has got nothing to do with the points that i have made & i am sorry if i have embarrassed you but you have to admit you made your own bed son. If you also read back on the PRSA thread will note i already advised you of my status, but you dont seem think things through im afraid. Vested interested is seemingly your only defence to your quite laughable investment outlook.
Look you better give Davy a call and get buying them shares as theres a window of opportunity here €400 on the nose retirement fund sorted.


----------



## therock (4 Nov 2008)

johnnygman said:


> Look it might be best if you changed your sign on name as you are clearly delerious and have no undertanding of markets or pensions.
> As for the lovely figure of 400 as a single one off premium yes id advised everyone to go and invest 400 euro on that given date i admit it it was totally wrong, i would also have advised people to do this about 2 weeks before retirement in order to screw them even more.
> By the way how did you work out that in the space of those 2 weeks they would have lost 50% of the value just curious as im getting a good laugh off this, you should write a book as i as i believe it would be a best seller in the comedy section.
> 
> ...



I'm glad you can see the funny side of all this....millions of people in their late 40s and mid 50s have seen a large share of their pensions whittled away because they listened to 'experts' like you who told them not to worry about the collapse of the stock market...but seing as you were one of those 'experts' on commission with a vested interest in taking people's money in return for bad advice i doubt you care, much like all those investment bankers in the states who wasted their investors money.

Only a fool and I can see you are one would buy into a collapsing market while it still has someway to collapse...you wouldn't buy a house half way through a property crash so why would you buy shares half way through a share price crash?

As I say you being a vested interest all you are about is the commission, it's a pity that during the crash there wasn't more impartial people like me and less vested interests like you flogging self interested advice. I hope you are happy to be among the ranks of the 'experts' who told people buy buy buy and invest their pension with us. Hundreds of thousands written off the pensions of millions of people because of being told not to change away from the stock markets and into something more stable.

And when I called it as it was, I was called a fool by idiots like you...you are a joke! I guess I really did ruffle the feathers of the resident site bore, ie you.


----------



## johnnygman (4 Nov 2008)

therock said:


> I'm glad you can see the funny side of all this....millions of people in their late 40s and mid 50s have seen a large share of their pensions whittled away because they listened to 'experts' like you who told them not to worry about the collapse of the stock market...but seing as you were one of those 'experts' on commission with a vested interest in taking people's money in return for bad advice i doubt you care, much like all those investment bankers in the states who wasted their investors money.
> 
> Only a fool and I can see you are one would buy into a collapsing market while it still has someway to collapse...you wouldn't buy a house half way through a property crash so why would you buy shares half way through a share price crash?
> 
> ...


 
Lovely stuff great response lol i do not work on commision by the way.

This is your only defence im afraid for your stupidity, i think its you getting your feathers ruffled my friend as you have have been exposed as an idiot.
Please explain to me how you feel advising people to invest in the markets now is a safe bet as you say, thats all id like to know. NO MORE, sore with laughing.
The crystal ball must be working overtime for the last 2 weeks, can you tell me if Celtic will win 2nite i might put a few quid on it since my pension funds is obviously in terminal decline...
I love how you are so selective and try to tag ME with all this slander??
Please God the education cuts wont go through as you are the proof of the pudding from the last economic slowdown and Edc budget cuts.


----------



## Ceist Beag (4 Nov 2008)

therock said:


> the market today has stabilised and its near the bottom...that is the time you should invest...not a couple of weeks ago.


What do you base that logic on? A couple of weeks ago people were saying exactly the same thing? As has been said many many times here before, timing the market is a mugs game. Personally I don't believe anybody who claims they can predict market trend at the minute, and until I see at least 6 months of stability and things picking up again I'll stay well clear!


----------



## barryl (4 Nov 2008)

I would imagine that alot of investors with cash are getting ready to buy shares over the coming months,its a guess whether the market has bottomed out or not,only time will tell if the rock is correct,he may well be


----------



## DrMoriarty (4 Nov 2008)

This has turned into a pointless flame war. Thread closed. 

johnnygman and therock, read the .


----------

