# Myth: "Few, if any,  people admitted to ICU will survive"



## noproblem (1 Apr 2020)

Mod's note: I have moved this post from the original thread. I think it illustrates the sweeping general statements people make without any basis whatsoever. Brendan 



Brendan Burgess said:


> I doubt that the ICU admissions are related to testing in any way.
> 
> People are admitted to ICU when they are very sick. Quite a few of them have not been tested yet.
> 
> Brendan


I would say that everyone in ICU has been tested and few if any will survive. Feel free to delete this post, I have no problem with that as it's very blunt and people may not like the directness of it. However, I don't just think what I've written is true but am totally convinced that it is so.


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## losttheplot (1 Apr 2020)

noproblem said:


> I would say that everyone in ICU has been tested and few if any will survive. Feel free to delete this post, I have no problem with that as it's very blunt and people may not like the directness of it. However, I don't just think what I've written is true but am totally convinced that it is so.


I think the survival rate in the UK was 50% for ICU admissions, not great. They didn't give a breakdown by age


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## Brendan Burgess (1 Apr 2020)

noproblem said:


> I would say that everyone in ICU has been tested and few if any will survive.



Have you any basis for saying this? 

From hearing doctors on the radio discussing how they will deal with the surge, they will be allocating ICU beds to those whom they think can benefit most.  So I presume that they are expecting some to survive.

Brendan


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## noproblem (1 Apr 2020)

losttheplot said:


> I think the survival rate in the UK was 50% for ICU admissions, not great. They didn't give a breakdown by age


Good to hear this, but I dare say the people placed in ICU in Ireland at the moment are older, are gravely ill, not just with Coronavirus but with other conditions plus their age. It's really  a last resort for them to be placed in ICU. There's no surprise that reporter George Lee places such emphasis each night on that figure, along with the no of deceased patients.
We may be forgetting that other patients are also in ICU, but the figures we're given each night I believe are the virus patients. This is specifically what I'm writing about.


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## Leo (2 Apr 2020)

noproblem said:


> Good to hear this, but I dare say the people placed in ICU in Ireland at the moment are older, are gravely ill, not just with Coronavirus but with other conditions plus their age.



Are you suggesting that the NHS are refusing ICU care for non-COVID-19 patients?


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## noproblem (2 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> Are you suggesting that the NHS are refusing ICU care for non-COVID-19 patients?


Have no idea where you got that from. I never said any such thing and I cannot control what way some people interpret things.


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## Leo (2 Apr 2020)

noproblem said:


> Have no idea where you got that from. I never said any such thing and I cannot control what way some people interpret things.



You seem to have a very strong opinion that of those being admitted to ICU here "few if any will survive."  Your response to the UK ICU numbers that don't correlate with your view seems to suggest there are different circumstances here, perhaps you could clarify? It's certainly not clear,


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## noproblem (2 Apr 2020)

Leo said:


> You seem to have a very strong opinion that of those being admitted to ICU here "few if any will survive."  Your response to the UK ICU numbers that don't correlate with your view seems to suggest there are different circumstances here, perhaps you could clarify? It's certainly not clear,



Doctors differ and patients die, sorry for having the opinion I have. I'm sure you're correct in everything you say.


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## Brendan Burgess (2 Apr 2020)

From today's press conference: 

CMO Holohan        said of the intensive care unit (ICU) figures: “Of 148 cases        admitted to ICU, 25 of those cases have been discharged, sadly        there have been 14 deaths from ICU and 109 remain in ICU. The        median age of ICU admission is 62.” 

Noproblem -  You should not make wild claims unless you have some basis for them. 

Brendan


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## seamus m (2 Apr 2020)

Very hard to also take these figures yet as we still have only 5 recovered cases and I would guess cases being put on ventilators from next week  will be worse cases than first 200 when no issue with availability


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## Brendan Burgess (2 Apr 2020)

noproblem said:


> I would say that everyone in ICU has been tested and few if any will survive. Feel free to delete this post, I have no problem with that as it's very blunt and people may not like the directness of it. However, I don't just think what I've written is true but am totally convinced that it is so.



Hi Séamus

The point of this thread is to highlight the dangerous scaremongering. 

noproblem is totally convinced that "few if any will survive". 

The facts are otherwise. 

So far, 25 out of 148 have survived enough to be discharged (presumably from ICU) 

Even if the rest die, it still means that 17% recovered. 

But, so far at least, more have been discharged than have died. 

Brendan


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## RedOnion (2 Apr 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Noproblem - You should not make wild claims unless you have some basis for them.


I couldn't agree more.

There are over 100 people in ICU currently with Covid 19. That means over 100 people with families, extended families, and friends worried about them. 
There are more people going to end up in ICU in the coming days / weeks / months. To read a statement like in the OP would be extremely distressing to anyone with a loved one in those circumstances.

I had hoped when the Coronavirus forum started on AAM that it would be a factual based area, and an escape from the normal social media scaremongering, but unfortunately it looks otherwise, and some people just make stuff up here too and post it as fact.


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## Conan (2 Apr 2020)

And on the news tonight it was confirmed that some 25 people who were admitted to ICU have been released, a number greater than those who have died in ICU. 
Noproblem clearly has one with the truth.


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## RentingD (3 Apr 2020)

I'm sure the poster didn't mean to cause alarm but my blood ran cold when I read the title.
I've been using AAM for Coronavirus talk as easier to take than Twitter - surprised this thread wasn't deleted.


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## Leper (3 Apr 2020)

RentingD said:


> I'm sure the poster didn't mean to cause alarm but my blood ran cold when I read the title.
> I've been using AAM for Coronavirus talk as easier to take than Twitter - surprised this thread wasn't deleted.


I'm glad the subject hasn't been deleted. Thirteen years ago I was a patient in an Intensive Care Unit and in induced sleep. My condition had nothing to do with CV-19 obviously. I don't know the survival rate of ICU patients, but I bet it is much higher than most expect even in these trying times.


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Apr 2020)

RentingD said:


> surprised this thread wasn't deleted.



Hi Renting 

The first post was included in a longer thread.  
As moderators we face a difficult balance - allowing people to express their opinions on the one hand and on the other trying to maintain a serious discussion.
There is some terrible rubbish being posted but if we delete it, we get accused of censoring views we disagree with.

I have left this thread, and indeed highlighted it,  so that people will see that even on Askaboutmoney,  ask for evidence where people make outlandish claims. 

Brendan


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## RedOnion (3 Apr 2020)

@Brendan Burgess 
Would it be possible to change the title somehow to shown it's not a fact?
When I click into forum it stands out, and some people might not want to read 'bad news' and skip over it, but remain affected by the title?


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## Laughahalla (3 Apr 2020)

The head of ICU in Limerick hospital has said 1 in 5 people in normal circumstances will lose their life if they come to ICU.
From the interview on the attached link I get the impression that she expects CV to be worse.









						'We need to treat each other like pariahs': Limerick intensive care doctor issues stark warning
					

Dr Catherine Motherway of University Hospital Limerick said the Irish health system may struggle if Covid-19 is not contained.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Apr 2020)

RedOnion said:


> Would it be possible to change the title somehow to shown it's not a fact?



OK, I have put it in inverted commas.  Does that help?


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## RentingD (3 Apr 2020)

I don't envy your job Brendan! Still having read this thread the stats are better than I would've originally thought. Let's hope things continue to improve for all


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## john luc (3 Apr 2020)

leaving covid 19 aside what are the usual rates of survival from ICU patients throughout the year


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Apr 2020)

john luc said:


> leaving covid 19 aside what are the usual rates of survival from ICU patients throughout the year



Laughalla earlier said: 

The head of ICU in Limerick hospital has said 1 in 5 people in normal circumstances will lose their life if they come to ICU.


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## Eireog007 (3 Apr 2020)

john luc said:


> leaving covid 19 aside what are the usual rates of survival from ICU patients throughout the year



That would be incredibly hard to quantify based on the myriad of reasons a person would end up in an ICU bed for or you could just take the overall recovery percentage which wouldn't be any use as a stat really.


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## SPC100 (7 Apr 2020)

Article is focused on mortality of folks on ventilators. It quotes a wide range of rates. Most of them are depressing.


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## SPC100 (7 Apr 2020)

36% mortality rate for non-COVID patients receiving advanced respiratory support reported to ICNARC from 2017 to 2019.

I.e. historically if you needed this type of assistance you are in a very serious and precarious situation.


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## SPC100 (7 Apr 2020)

Coronavirus: new figures on intensive care deaths revealed
					

Findings of new report raise concerns about how effective new facilities will be




					www.theguardian.com
				




It seems the uk 50 percent rate is based on 120 or so outcomes for the 800 or so that were being treated. I.e.  numbers may yet change, as we don't know if outcomes for 700 others will follow this. And there might be difference between time from admission to death vs time from admission to recovery


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## elacsaplau (7 Apr 2020)

Looking at the UK figures, in order to get an accurate percentage survival rate, wouldn't we need to understand the numbers who need to be in ICU versus those who are just there as a precaution?


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## SPC100 (7 Apr 2020)

The earlier article tried to figure out survival rate for people who are put on mechanical ventilators which should avoid that issue.


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## Brendan Burgess (7 Apr 2020)

elacsaplau said:


> wouldn't we need to understand the numbers who need to be in ICU versus those who are just there as a precaution?



Why? The title of the thread is that few if any will survive. 

It's not " Few if any of those who need to be in ICU vs. those who are there for precautionary purposes, will survive" 

If I hear that Boris Johnson or anyone else has gone into ICU, I don't know if it's because they need it or for precautionary purposes. 

In fact, the ICUs are so busy that I am surprised that they are putting anyone in who don't need to be there.

Brendan


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## elacsaplau (7 Apr 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> In fact, the ICUs are so busy that I am surprised that they are putting anyone in who don't need to be there.



My point, exactly. The guy is in intensive care and even then it feels like a story is being spun!


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## Brendan Burgess (9 Apr 2020)

The CMO released figures last night 

227 patients have been admitted to ICU 
27 have died
53 have been discharged 

It's not clear if that means discharged from hospital or discharged from ICU. If it means discharged from hospital , it presumably means that a lot more have been moved from ICU back into the wards.

Do we know how many are currently in ICU? 

If so, we could compile this table: 

Admitted to ICU :  227 
Moved from ICU but still in hospital: x
Discharged from ICU and hospital : 53
Died : 27
Currently in ICU: 147 - X


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## Eireog007 (9 Apr 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> The CMO released figures last night
> 
> 227 patients have been admitted to ICU
> 27 have died
> ...



I think you will struggle to get that detailed of a breakdown Brendan, and in the grand scheme of things being discharged from the ICU to an adjacent ward or out of the hospital completely is as much of a win either way currently.

It’s our ICU capacity which is going to come under threat first. We would have significant problems prior to our overall capacity ever being compromised.


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## Brendan Burgess (9 Apr 2020)

I agreed that being discharged from ICU is a win. But we don't know if 53 have been discharged or 153.  So the difference matters. 



Eireog007 said:


> I think you will struggle to get that detailed of a breakdown Brendan,



Hi Eireog

But there are only two numbers missing and either of them would complete the table as the other can be derived.

it probably has been announced how many are in ICU due to Covid - it's just I can't find it.

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (9 Apr 2020)

More detailed information today









						Covid-19: 28 more deaths, 500 further cases
					

The Department of Health has confirmed a further 28 people with Covid-19 have died in Ireland, bringing the overall death toll to 263.




					www.rte.ie
				





_The Department of Health said the majority of admissions to intensive care units have happened in the last 10-14 days. To date, there have been 242 admissions to ICU. Of these, 153 (63%) are still in hospital. 

59 people (24%) have been discharged from ICU, while 30 (12.4%) people in intensive care have died. _






So far, you are twice as likely to fully recover as to die. 

Brendan


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