# China



## CoffeeBrew (26 May 2005)

Haven't seen a thread on China lately. 

Interesting bit of news today is that the chinese government has joined the growing number of government/central banks around the world in taking active steps (although the chinese steps are more radical) to prevent their property bubble growing any bigger and causing a disaster.

A correction of 25 - 30 % could occur in key cities over the next couple of years.

"Days of fast profits in China's property market could be over"
[broken link removed]


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## ajapale (26 May 2005)

Yes, CB but what would you like us to debate?


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## Gabriel (26 May 2005)

ajapale said:
			
		

> Yes, CB but what would you like us to debate?



Presumably the global property market (in this case China), even though there already exists a Global Property Market thread where this could be discussed!


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## CoffeeBrew (26 May 2005)

ajapale said:
			
		

> Yes, CB but what would you like us to debate?


 
Any one of a number of hot topics regarding China these days. That's why I didn't include "property" in the title of the thread.

Mind, that's only if you want to - participation is optional


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## Purple (26 May 2005)

Where's the "Is China socially and politically stable enough to survive it's current economic growth?" thread? I'd be interested in that one.


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## CoffeeBrew (26 May 2005)

Purple said:
			
		

> Where's the "Is China socially and politically stable enough to survive it's current economic growth?" thread? I'd be interested in that one.


 
But then someone might start a thread on "Will there be an impact on us if China revalues its currency"

And bang there you go we'll have - horror - more than one thread on China. Then there'll be the complaining and the whining etc. 

It would appear it's better keep the titles general to prevent this heinous proliferation of threads.


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## joe sod (27 May 2005)

"Asian economies are growing while Europe and the US are in decline . The solution is for the major economies to adjust their currencies to levels which reflect today's economic reality. There is a general feeling that Europe, particularly "old Europe" as a manufacturing and potentially services area, is, or will become, increasingly uncompetitive . . . "
This is an extract from what Tony O'Reilly said in the Sunday Independent. This is the effect that China and Asia is having on Western economies. I've posted the full extract in another posting. China is going to dampen wage growth in all rich countries because economic activity will simply move to where it is cheapest to operate. Many people mistakingly think that this only applies to manufacturing it will affect everything. On the other side of the equation raw materials and commodities will get more and more expensive. So in relative terms the West will get poorer but Asia will get richer. It may seem very pessimistic but people better start getting used to it.


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## CoffeeBrew (27 May 2005)

There seems to be growing pressure on China regarding its currency and increasing use of the term "currency manipulator".




> Chinese currency manipulation is very real and substantial, with wide-ranging implications, and it deserves, as a policy response, something more than the total official neglect it has received up to this point.


 
- testimony before US senate committee

Also Greenspan is saying:



> the Chinese government’s massive exchange-rate interventions were causing growing imbalances in the domestic economy that will force China to abandon its currency peg.


 

The economist writes



> Once this happens, the People's Bank of China can stop stockpiling dollar reserves—meaning its demand for American government securities will also dry up.


 
and



> A sharp reversal in China's appetite for American Treasury bonds *could send interest rates soaring. *


 
One would hope though that the reversal in this demand is more orderly resulting in a controlled return to higher interest rates over time.


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## RainyDay (28 May 2005)

joe sod said:
			
		

> This is an extract from what Tony O'Reilly said in the Sunday Independent.


I'm sure the editor subjected that article to all the usual editorial rigour for which the SIndo is famed.


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## vuJa-Day (28 May 2005)

Seems to be a lot of upward pressure building on interest rates even if they do stay low in the short term. 

I can't help feeling that's what's left of the celtic tiger - with it's record breaking love affair with debt, land, brick and mortar - is in for a bit of a maulin' in the years ahead.


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## joe sod (3 Jun 2005)

*Re: China (our jobs market opened up)*

A very interesting article in today's independent

"
[font=Arial, Verdana, Arial]*Jobs market opens up in bid to lure Chinese professionals*[/font][font=Verdana, Arial]
THE Irish jobs market is to be opened up to Chinese graduates in a landmark qualifications recognition deal. 
The move is likely to lead to a stream of qualified Chinese workers arriving in search of jobs across the full spectrum including health, law and administration. Irish graduates will enjoy the same privileges in China. 

The deal is the first such mutual agreement, outside certain European countries, on the recognition of international higher level qualifications. 

In keeping with normal practice, where appropriate, the graduates would have to satisfy requirements of professional bodies, such as the Irish Medical Council, in areas such as language and specific forms of professional training. 

The decision, which comes into effect early next year, was announced yesterday by the Higher Education Training and Awards Council (HETAC) and follows an agreement signed by the Irish and Chinese governments, during a visit by Taoiseach Bertie Ahern to China in January. 

HETAC chief executive Séamus Puirseil said: "When we invite people to work in Ireland, we have a moral and legal obligation to recognise their qualifications." 

He said the Irish were treated with great generosity of spirit when they went abroad to live and work and now there was an obligation on us to show the same generosity to the thousands of workers who were coming here. 

"The new entrants to our workforce from overseas are a valuable asset to our economy and society. But they must not be confined to menial or low level jobs when they have qualifications that will increase their earning potential and career development. 

"HETAC, in cooperation with the National Qualifications Authority of Ireland (NQAI), is working on mutual recognition agreements with a number of European countries and it is likely that there will be demand for similar deals from outside Europe." 

There are no figures for the number of Chinese graduates currently here, but there has been a huge influx of Chinese in recent years. 

There has been a steady growth in visa applications from Chinese, with 5,000 of 13,800 applications approved last year, up from 3,500 approvals, out of 5,600 applications in 2002. 

The Chinese represent the biggest single group (13pc) of international students here. While the majority are studying at undergraduate level, 11pc are postgraduates and so, under the new agreement, would possess the necessary qualifications to work here. 

John Carr, general secretary of the Irish National Teachers Organisation said the announcement would be seen as hollow by many teachers from all over the world whose qualifications had not been recognised. 

"Some of the most qualified teachers in the world have sought employment here and have been frustrated by rules and regulations that are insular in the extreme. Some have been refused recognition while other highly trained professionals are paid an "untrained" rate"


        If this happened in France there would be uproar the whole country would go on strike. It is amazing that Irish people are oblivious to what is going on and are sleep walking into the future. There are decisions being made today which are going to have monumental effects on their future. We have seen the depressing effect that China has had on wages in the manufacturing sector. Now the same thing is going to happen to the professions. On the one hand the government lectures people about the importance of upskilling and then on the other hand it increases the competition for those higher skilled jobs. The only gainers will be landowners and property developers.

[/font]


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## CoffeeBrew (3 Jun 2005)

David McWilliams predicts that Dublin between the canals will become a largely non-Irish zone within 16 years and that our city centre around Moore st. will become one of the more vibrant Chinatowns in Europe.

[broken link removed]


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## Purple (9 Jun 2005)

I'm not convinced that China's economic graph will stay at the same upward angle for the next 10 years as their population become richer and more outward looking. The pressure for political reform and greater freedom may knock the wheels off the Chinese locomotive. 
Fifteen years ago Japan was the great economic threat but was shown to be a paper tiger. Who knows what holes have been plastered over in the Chinese economy. 
Any economic miracle that is built on oppression of workers, a disregard for basic safety and the use of vast amounts of slave (convict) labour cannot be sustained as it moves into high tech and knowledge based areas.


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## joe sod (11 Jun 2005)

"Fifteen years ago Japan was the great economic threat but was shown to be a paper tiger. Who knows what holes have been plastered over in the Chinese economy."

Some paper tiger Japan is the second biggest industrial nation in the world even after 15 years of recession. However when Japan industrialised 100 million people were lifted from subsistence living to industrial western standards of living. Initially Japan's rise caused a big increase in comodity prices in the seventies but the prices settled back down as it was still only 100 million people. And because the population were lifted right up to western standards it also benefited western economies because the Japanese created demand for Western goods.
      It is different with China and india because we are talking about billions of people rather than millions. Alot more people will be lifted from subsistence living but not to western standards of living. So hundreds of millions will be able to afford better food and cheap transportation. But they wont be able to afford the expensive products produced in the West. This is free trade but it won't benefit the west.


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## joe sod (12 Jun 2005)

An absolutely excellent article on the likely future trends in globalisation. Less capital, millions of highly educated chinese and indian engineers. No more big pay rises in the West, the US will increasingly look for more protection the same as the Europeans as globalisation and free trade no longer work in their favour.

http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=4542

what does this say about the irish pipe dream of a highly skilled workforce... it wont work because we are already behind.


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