# when do you think the credit crunch will end



## Cormywormy (7 Jan 2009)

Post your views here to when you think the credit crunch will end.


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## ClubMan (7 Jan 2009)

21st September 2011.


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## sam h (7 Jan 2009)

And the piece of string I'm thinking of is how long???

There are soooo many factors affecting the current credit crisis, it's impossible to determine.  Plus the global economy is fairly unstable at the moment, anything could happen to cause further problems.


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## kaplan (7 Jan 2009)

World sometime in 2011 - Ireland 2015


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## Lightning (7 Jan 2009)

Economic recovery?
USA - Early 2010
Most of the rest of the world - Late 2010
Ireland - 2012

But Who Knows !!


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## askalot (7 Jan 2009)

ClubMan said:


> 21st September 2011.



I'm afraid your calculations are slightly off this time. It is quite clearly Sunday, December 23, 2012 as is very clearly shown here :

http://www.greatdreams.com/end-world.htm


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## mercman (7 Jan 2009)

Ask the genius David Icke !


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## soy (8 Jan 2009)

I am betting on half past three, next Thursday


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## bamboozle (8 Jan 2009)

the worrying this is we have to see when the world economy hits the bottom, only then will things stabalise and growth will start to occur.  so i'd be more concerned about when the whole mess bottoms out.
I'm not as hopeful as i was that Obama's election will have a great effect, but i would imagine once he takes over office there will be real hope over in america which hopefully should trickle around the world.


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## smiley (9 Jan 2009)

On avearge world recessions dont last very long at all. Since the great depression the average recession has lasted only between 6 to 16 months in duration in the US. According to the NBER the us went into contraction in December 2007, so we are already 13-14 months into this contraction today.

You will also find that the spread between the us fed funds rate and the libor rate has been reducinng since the fed has pumped massive amounts of money into the system.
So the severe credit crunch is easing and the commercial paper markets are open.

Dont forget that the stock markets will recover 6-12 months before the end of any recession. As Warren Buffett wrote recently (in the new york times) why he is busy buying us equities at the moment "If you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

I cant see a credit crunch lasting much longer when you realise how much money governments around the world have pumped into the system.
A tidal wave of cash is on its way.


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## onekeano (9 Jan 2009)

Cormywormy said:


> Post your views here to when you think the credit crunch will end.



When Biffo and the Green clowns eventually head for the hills and follow the chief architect of the Celtic Disaster that was Bertie! When people like Dermot Manion / Bev Flynn / the FAS guy / the police at the airport and all the others who have their snouts in the trough realise that they never were "entitled" to basically rob the Joe Soap taxpayer.... then it will end for us!

Roy


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## ringledman (9 Jan 2009)

Read what history shows about such downturns-

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=100632

Shares will probably bottom in 1-2 years.
GDP growth a couple of years to correct. 
Unemployment many years to correct.
Property +ive growth many years to correct.


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## Lak (9 Jan 2009)

onekeano said:


> When Biffo and the Green clowns eventually head for the hills and follow the chief architect of the Celtic Disaster that was Bertie! When people like Dermot Manion / Bev Flynn / the FAS guy / the police at the airport and all the others who have their snouts in the trough realise that they never were "entitled" to basically rob the Joe Soap taxpayer.... then it will end for us!
> 
> Roy


Or more pointedly
 When the idiocy of the Irish people ceases in voting theese cretinous imbecilles back into office over and over again, in spite of overwhelmingly obvious astounding corruption and downright calculated thieving......... could be a very long recession.


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## Lak (9 Jan 2009)

And when officially does a recession become a depression ?


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## capall (9 Jan 2009)

When we've all lost our jobs


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## PaddyW (9 Jan 2009)

Will we actually learn anything from this though? Will people realise that they shouldn't get greedy by buying up loads of different properties, pushing up prices for people trying to get on the housing ladder? Will they learn not to borrow too much from the banks to get these properties? Will the banks cop on and realise that loaning people up to seven or eight times their salary is pretty damn silly? Will banking practices be more closely scrutinised by the regulator in future? Will all this only have a short term effect on all the things we know were grossly over priced during the boom years? Will, will, will. So many more questions that could be asked. What do you all think?


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## krissovo (9 Jan 2009)

kaplan said:


> World sometime in 2011 - Ireland 2015



My thoughts exactly but I fear for Ireland that it could be nearer 2020.

Ireland needs to reinvent itself with a plan that does no rely on being a cheap European technical/educated workforce or construction.


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## webtax (10 Jan 2009)

A good article about the year ahead by someone who was forecasting trillion dollar losses in 2007, when many US commentators were talking about billions:

"The financial headlines scream "de-leveraging" at every turn. Companies are cutting production, reducing staff and costs, suspending investment plans, raising equity and trying to sell assets to reduce debt. Consumer spending is falling sharply as individuals increase saving and reduce debt. Falling investment earnings and lower interest rates also adversely affect the income of savers reducing consumption. Increasing unemployment (as companies retrench) and lower investment (as global demand collapses) mean the chance for a quick recovery is receding."

http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/254949/2009_prospects__trench_warfare


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## Towger (10 Jan 2009)

smiley said:


> A tidal wave of cash is on its way.


 
With very high inflation snapping at it's heals. This will then help to erode the loans of those with huge borrowings, while those with savings will take the hit.


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## Green (10 Jan 2009)

legs-akimbo said:


> Or more pointedly
> When the idiocy of the Irish people ceases in voting theese cretinous imbecilles back into office over and over again, in spite of overwhelmingly obvious astounding corruption and downright calculated thieving......... could be a very long recession.


 

A very good post, I agree completely...How many more Tribunals is it going to take before the penny drops with some people?


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## Jackie D (10 Jan 2009)

Lets face it..(& i'm normally positive) The country is losing money and jobs at a staggering rate!! The Polish were laughed upon while they came here in their hundreds of thousands to work for a lot less than the Oirish Man and Woman.. They saved and saved and left this country with a lot of cash.. Now they are taking our good aul friendly American companies such as Dell to Poland, leaving the country with less cash and less jobs!! Even Oirish developers have jumped ship and set up in Poland!!!

Yes, we did the same in the States many years back and took their companies here but they had a population over 100 times BIGGER than ours!!

It was reported yesterday that 5000 jobs a week are being lost at the moment!! 5000 a week!!! Tell me, how does a country as small as ours recover from that...

Sorry but one word and one word only has brought this country to it's knees... "GREED"


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## j26 (10 Jan 2009)

There are signs that the credit crunch is easing - the three month EURIBOR is now only .192% above the ECB rate, where at one stage it was well more than 1% over. Traditionally it was less than 0.1%  This is effectively a measure of how much the banks trust each other and are willing to lend to each other.  I can only guess that this means that the shakeout of banks is nearly over The upshot should be a more fluid interbank market, and an easing of credit somewhat.

My view is that the credit crunch is nearly over.  The problem is that we have to deal with the aftermath of it now.


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## webtax (10 Jan 2009)

LIBOR rates are only an indication that banks are lending to each other at lower rates - how much of this is due to the govt guarantees & are they lending to 'main street'?
The deleveraging process is nowhere near an end, and we will know the credit crunch is over when banks start lending to business again (which won't happen at a normal level until they have filled the holes in their balance sheets).


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## smiley (10 Jan 2009)

Towger said:


> With very high inflation snapping at it's heals. This will then help to erode the loans of those with huge borrowings, while those with savings will take the hit.



Couldnt agree more about the inflation. Printing lots of money = inflation. So interest rates will have to go back up again.


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