# "Central Bank figures 'overstating' number in mortgage crisis "



## Brendan Burgess (23 Jun 2012)

An interesting article (by Laura Noonan?) in today's Irish Independent 



> An investigation by the Irish Independent has revealed the Central  Bank's figures include several types of borrowers who are no longer in  trouble.
> 
> 
> A large number of senior bankers right across the  industry who spoke to the Irish Independent now insist the situation is  improving.
> ...



Certainly the issue of legacy arrears overstates the problem, but I have no idea of how much these are. I would have thought that they were a very small percentage of the overall. 

If someone falls into arrears and then agrees a restructuring - they could be making the agreed restructured payments, but still be in the arrears stats due to the legacy arrears. This would explain why so many of those who have restructured are in arrears. The restructuring hasn't failed, it's just that they waited until they went into arrears before restructuring. 

However, a much better measure would be the number of people who have paid  less than the interest on their mortgage over the past 12 months. This would be a real measure of difficulty.


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## mcaul (26 Jun 2012)

I was thinking along the same lines. Retail sales are picking up and you don't hear as many people complaining about finances. Also the tracker mortgage rates of 2% are helping a huge number of people pay mortgages that if on a regular rate of 4.5% - 5% would be crippling.

The bulk of unemployment is in the younger male category and those who really really want a job are getting jobs - probably not what they wanted, but the attitude of many is a job is a job and better to be in one than not. 

Maybe, just maybe, the light at the end of the tunnel can be seen.


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## DerKaiser (26 Jun 2012)

Brendan Burgess said:


> However, a much better measure would be the number of people who have paid  less than the interest on their mortgage over the past 12 months. This would be a real measure of difficulty.



That would be a good measure.

Though there's quite a difference between fewer new cases falling into arrears as opposed to the total number of cases in arrears. Despite the fall in new cases, it's conceivable cases going into arrears still exceed those coming out of arrears.


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## Brendan Burgess (5 Jul 2012)

Stephen Kinsella from University of Limerick responded to the piece 

Devil is in the detail where mortgage crisis is concerned




> The facts are pretty clear. More than 10pc of residential mortgages in  the State are in some form of distress, 77,630 at last count, to be  exact. That number of people could fill Croke Park. Some of these  mortgages have been restructured -- that's French for going 'interest  only' or paying less than the normal monthly payment -- but all are more  than 90 days in arrears.  Even worse, 59,437 mortgages are in arrears  for more than 180 days. These mortgages are truly underwater.
> 
> ...
> a combination of factors drive mortgage arrears: the interest rate on  the mortgage, unemployment, house prices, with the addition of rental  rates for the buy-to-let sector. What has happened to unemployment  rates? They have been roughly constant at just over 14pc since 2010.  What about interest rates? Variable rate customers have endured large  increases in their interest payments, and indeed it is this section of  mortgage holders that have found themselves proportionally more in  arrears than others, such as those on trackers or fixed repayments. What  about rental rates? They have sunk. And we all know what has happened  to house prices.


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## demoivre (23 Aug 2012)

Today's Central Bank [broken link removed] for Q2 2012..


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