# Prime Time on Boom to Bust



## eileen alana (1 May 2008)

There was nothing in the programme that we don't already know, however, I couldn't help noticing how ridiculous the blond locks lookd on that guy mick


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## flattea2 (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Lee reciting passages from his economist books

The rich builder crying poor mouth

Nothing new and no discussion on innovative ways to manage the economy

We should set up a fund for hard up builders

All panic and no substance


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## ixus (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



eileen alana said:


> There was nothing in the programme that we don't already know,



Not to jump on you but I think there was a reasonably strong message that we must increase productivity and competitiveness. It would appear that the HSE, amongst others, don't realise this. 

Thought the opening picture thing was poor. 

Otherwise, it was good to see different sectors involved in the show. Also, fair play on having Nouriel Roubini on. 

Liked the bit about the banks talking through both mouths from the Smart homes guy.
Curran was right, house prices come down and they will shift.

I like that the banks got a bit of a hammering for having it both ways, only sad that one of their headline economists wasn't on to defend it!


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## dockingtrade (1 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

the main problem we have is the acceptance of incompetance at the top, govt , banks, condtruction etc.  The situation is global but Incompetance here  made the situation worse, but the issue now is no one will backtrack, accept the bleeding obvious or seem to do anything about it. 

On another point the banks seem to be not doing to bad at the end of the day. They issued many loose mortgages and gained alot of customers increasing their profits, fair enough. Now the mortgages are tightened so not as many new customers but they are cutting their losses on the slow growth by uping the rates on existing customers. Banks need to be profitable to protect the value of the pensions so basically there is no objections to these rate increases from on high. People can vote with their feet by moving mortgages but they are all uping their rates (very cartelish)

we're in trouble we need those who can make a difference to do so NOW!


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## shanegl (2 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



sandymount said:


> The April Live Register figures are out tomorrow. Unfortunately this is the only growth you are going to see in Ireland this year.


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## Brendan Burgess (2 May 2008)

Folks

The Posting Guidelines apply to this thread as well as to other threads.

Please disagree with each other without resorting to abuse and bad language. 
Brendan


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## Thomas22 (2 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

I thought there was very little panic considering the state of our largest employer/sector.

Construction makes up 20% of our economy and could have more than halved over the last 2 years. There is simply no way the rest of the economy is going to pick up the slack especially since manufacturing will continue to decline over the next decade.

I was disappointed that the developer got cut off before he had time to talk of the folly of the governments section 23 schemes.
The programme didn't go far enough for me


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## ccbkd (2 May 2008)

The economy is media driven just like the whole global warming issue.. like the climate the economy runs in cycles autumn to spring if you like so for the next year or two we are going to slow then accelerate simply as that! Remember the Ozone Layer a few years a go, haven't heard much about it lately has it gone away?


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## Buffett (2 May 2008)

ccbkd said:


> The economy is media driven just like the whole global warming issue.. like the climate the economy runs in cycles autumn to spring if you like so for the next year or two we are going to slow then accelerate simply as that! Remember the Ozone Layer a few years a go, haven't heard much about it lately has it gone away?



Strange post. Where will this growth you talk of come from ?

The Euro is at at all time high against the dollar... ECB rates will more likely go up than down.. Ireland is joined at the hip with the US and due to the dollar (and other factors), the country is not as competitive as it once was.

I think id rather rely on hard facts like this than wishy washy "cycles autumn to spring ...blah blah". It is the real world after all .


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## rmelly (2 May 2008)

mickman said:


> we are NOT in a recession


 
Who said we were?


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## Sunny (2 May 2008)

mickman said:


> the credit crisis is almost over and wont be half as bad as first feared. this is always the way things happen in financial markeits - the predictions are dire and never pan out that way


 
I work in the credit markets and believe me the credit crisis is not almost over. Nowhere near it despite what Central Banks and Wall Street CEO's want you to believe.

Also where do you see this growth in the US by September coming from?


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## mickman (2 May 2008)

the stock market is an indicator of future economic performance - even the fed use it as an indicator. the US markets has turned a corner and will continue climbing

why do you think its not almost over - we dont even have a crisis here??? i have no problem getting credit and no one i know has


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## rmelly (2 May 2008)

mickman said:


> why do you think its not almost over - we dont even have a crisis here??? i have no problem getting credit and no one i know has


 
Are you paying the same interest rates for new credit as you would have 18 months ago?


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## askalot (2 May 2008)

mickman said:


> the stock market is an indicator of future economic performance - even the fed use it as an indicator. the US markets has turned a corner and will continue climbing
> 
> why do you think its not almost over - we dont even have a crisis here??? i have no problem getting credit and no one i know has



So what do increasing tracker mortgage margins indicate to you?

Or put another way; the increasing disconnect between the ECB rate and the rate mortgage providers must pay for money?


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## Sunny (2 May 2008)

mickman said:


> the stock market is an indicator of future economic performance - even the fed use it as an indicator. the US markets has turned a corner and will continue climbing
> 
> why do you think its not almost over - we dont even have a crisis here??? i have no problem getting credit and no one i know has


 
We will have to agree to disagree on the US turning the corner. Either of us could be right. I am just very bearish.

I don't think the credit crisis is anywhere near over because if you look at where we are at now after all the steps that the various Central Banks have taken including drastic rate cuts in the US, pumping liquidity into the system, rescuing banks, giving out government securities for RMBS deals, opening up FED funding for investment banks etc you will see that we are not much better off. Libor is still trading at high levels (and is believed to be underestimated) so banks are still hoarding cash and don't trust each other. The securitisation market is still shut. The US housing market is still falling. The UK is beginning to become a real worry. The market is still trying to delever from stupid levels and that won't be done in one or two quarters. Banks are still chasing capital through rights issues. Look at Citigroup. Their CEO comes out and says we are nearly there and through the worst. They then come out with a $4 billion rights issue, refuse to rule out more and then announce they are trying to get billions of levergaed loans off their books at massively discounted prices. They clearly expect things to get worse.

Anyway back to Prime Time. It was a pretty poor programme. The only thing that was worth taking out of it was that Ireland has to regain its competitiveness. And that means wage restraint from the top to the bottom and drastic reform of our public services


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## mickman (2 May 2008)

it means that the banks are having a little extra to get their funds on the interbank market - thats all. no irish bank is in trouble and they wont be. credit has been crazily cheap, thats over now but its not going back to the old days either of 18% mortgages

i am paying a little more interst on my credit from last year, nothing that affects my lifestyle in any way. i still got a mortgage from AIB earlier this year on a very good fixed rate


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## joe sod (2 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



Thomas22 said:


> I thought there was very little panic considering the state of our largest employer/sector.
> 
> Construction makes up 20% of our economy and could have more than halved over the last 2 years. There is simply no way the rest of the economy is going to pick up the slack especially since manufacturing will continue to decline over the next decade.
> 
> ...


 
i thought this aswell, this was a crucial point the government could have taken the investors out years ago through proper taxation policies, why did she not let him expand on this, i thought miriam o callaghan was pretty poor on this, they should have another presenter for economy issues


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## tiger (2 May 2008)

I thought it was an interesting touch to have the program in the gravity bar.  What goes up must come down?


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## mickman (2 May 2008)

S+p closed above 1400 for first time since january too. the markets will continue to rally


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## zag (2 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*

Am I the only one who thinks this reliance on construction is severly limiting for our economy ?  I'm not sure if other economies rely on 'construction' to the same degree, but it seems crazy that our economy is doing well because all the builders are busy building new houses (at a rate that many people believed for a long time was unsustainable) and extensions, and buying all their big 4*4s and super-sized mansions in the country and keeping the economy afloat with their expenditure.  As soon as demand slows down (because, among other things, the builders and developers were extracting super-profits because the level of demand supported it) the industry seems to be in crisis and it appears the rest of the economy starts slowing down.

I'm no economist (well, I am techinically, but last time I did Economics was almost 20 years ago in college) but I think any government that allows the economy to develop such a heavy dependence on an industry like this is pretty foolhardy.  I'm not saying they should have stopped the builders from building, but there should have been a little more development of other industries.

z



Thomas22 said:


> I thought there was very little panic considering the state of our largest employer/sector.
> 
> Construction makes up 20% of our economy and could have more than halved over the last 2 years. There is simply no way the rest of the economy is going to pick up the slack especially since manufacturing will continue to decline over the next decade.
> 
> ...


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## Purple (2 May 2008)

*Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust*



zag said:


> Am I the only one who thinks this reliance on construction is severly limiting for our economy ?  I'm not sure if other economies rely on 'construction' to the same degree, but it seems crazy that our economy is doing well because all the builders are busy building new houses (at a rate that many people believed for a long time was unsustainable) and extensions, and buying all their big 4*4s and super-sized mansions in the country and keeping the economy afloat with their expenditure.  As soon as demand slows down (because, among other things, the builders and developers were extracting super-profits because the level of demand supported it) the industry seems to be in crisis and it appears the rest of the economy starts slowing down.
> 
> I'm no economist (well, I am techinically, but last time I did Economics was almost 20 years ago in college) but I think any government that allows the economy to develop such a heavy dependence on an industry like this is pretty foolhardy.  I'm not saying they should have stopped the builders from building, but there should have been a little more development of other industries.
> 
> z



Couldn't agree more. Construction, for the most part, does not innovate or generate export sales. These things are essential for a trading nation like Ireland.


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## becky (2 May 2008)

I was dissappointed with the program learnt nothing new and there was no Dan or David.


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## Brendan Burgess (2 May 2008)

Sorry folks

We can't have a civil discussion. It's taking up too much mods' time.

Brendan


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