# 'Covid19: a deadly disease'



## Purple (4 Nov 2021)

There are no shortage of headlines about how deadly Covid19 is and how it is mutating and getting more dangerous.

It is important to note that it is mutating far slower than other RNA virus or even DNA viruses such as Influenza or HIV.
A 'mutation' is classified as a change of 10 or more RNA letters out of the 29,903 letters in the RNA strand that makes up SARS-Covid19. So far there has been no significant changes in how deadly the virus is, just increases in its transmissibility. That mutation is now ubiquitous and that makes it easier to develop vaccines and other medicines to treat it.

It is not, by any measure, a 'deadly' disease. It is very easy to transmit so everyone could get it but the mortality rate, even compared to other Corona Viruses, is extremely low.

It is also worth noting that treatments for people with Covid19 have improved significantly in the last 18 months so fewer resources are needed to treat them; they place less strain on the healthcare system. Merck's antiviral oral medication reduces the rate of hospitalisation amongst those infected by 50%.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing what we are doing but irrational fear doesn't serve anyone's real interests.


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## odyssey06 (4 Nov 2021)

Well, to be pedantic, it is a 'deadly' disease in that it is capable of causing death, but it is its transmissibility which is what makes it capable of overloading public healthcare rather than its severity. Contrast with say Ebola. 

And there are indications that Delta variant is more likely to lead to hospitalisation than Alpha variant:








						Coronavirus: Delta strain twice as likely to lead to hospitalisation as Alpha
					

Study looked at over 43,000 cases in the UK, most of which were in unvaccinated people




					www.irishtimes.com
				




But we are in a much better place now than at the outset with vaccines, low cost measures such as masks, and hopefully these anti-viral treatments will live up to their promise in terms of effectiveness and availability.


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## Purple (4 Nov 2021)

odyssey06 said:


> Well, to be pedantic, it is a 'deadly' disease in that it is capable of causing death,


Sure, but so can the Flu. 


odyssey06 said:


> And there are indications that Delta variant is more likely to lead to hospitalisation than Alpha variant:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes, but still very low.



odyssey06 said:


> But we are in a much better place now than at the outset with vaccines, low cost measures such as masks, and hopefully these anti-viral treatments will live up to their promise in terms of effectiveness and availability.


Exactly.


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## Paul O Mahoney (4 Nov 2021)

Viruses by nature are a threat to vulnerable,  be that old, I'll health, poor people living in squalor, or specfic group like HPV etc, but this virus, including its mutations has infected all age groups and the majority are able to fight it off, naturally but it also leaves some with long term effects,  which is also unusual,  most viruses either kill you or you survive.

The easiness at which the virus spread,  all strains was really the "spook" in this pandemic,  upto last Autumn science has zero idea how it did this,  now its probably about 30% knowledge and some think it could be 10 years to fully understand it. 

The reality is that it's a very dangerous virus,  the vaccines are stopping a catastrophe now and as more knowledge will be gained the mRNA vaccines will be adjusted. 
Over 5 million is the death toll officially I expect that figure to be optimistic as reporting in poor countries is non existent,  I hope I'm wrong.

Expect many more variations/mutations/ and whatever nature will cook up but we have a way to go.


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## Clamball (6 Nov 2021)

I think the normal flu season kills 500 people a year in Ireland, mainly frail older people and those with a compromised immune system such as cancer patients.   But we are not afraid of the flu in the way we fear covid.

So what is different about COVID-19.  It is present in very high levels in the population so the chances of catching it are much higher.  It kills about 5000 a day minimum, every day since the start of the pandemic, worldwide which is pretty significant.  And going out and about doing our regular lifestyle puts us at a higher risk of catching it.  So yeah it is scary and I think people do not want to catch it in case they pass it on to others.  

Until the daily numbers are much lower and we feel safe vaccinated the worry will not go away.


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## Paul O Mahoney (7 Nov 2021)

Clamball said:


> I think the normal flu season kills 500 people a year in Ireland, mainly frail older people and those with a compromised immune system such as cancer patients.   But we are not afraid of the flu in the way we fear covid.
> 
> So what is different about COVID-19.  It is present in very high levels in the population so the chances of catching it are much higher.  It kills about 5000 a day minimum, every day since the start of the pandemic, worldwide which is pretty significant.  And going out and about doing our regular lifestyle puts us at a higher risk of catching it.  So yeah it is scary and I think people do not want to catch it in case they pass it on to others.
> 
> Until the daily numbers are much lower and we feel safe vaccinated the worry will not go away.


Once we know how it works and are capable of developing defensive drugs its just going to be something that will be controlled in the western world and that's allegedly more important....until.

My fear is that as humanity keeps destroying the planet it shares with billions of other species, the pandora box will open and it's not beyond the laws of probability point to another virus,  or a virus that has linked to other viruses that will be beyond the scientific capability that we have.

But the bottom line is that we need to develop a strategy that doesn't destroy the ecosystem  whereby poorer countries who only do it because they are hungry and we want stuff,  that we don't need it, but we want it.

Try laying that down in our culture.

I'm working on finding that report from 1955 that stated categorically that the planet had enough resources then ,a mere 10 years after the end of WW2 to feed, educate and house the population of the human planet,  and then extrapolate in basic ways to see if the analysis is still workable.

10 years later "Moore's law" was born, is that law applicable?  given it was about computing ,and the challenges that face us?  my view absolutely.

And could be reverse engineered to predict what is needed to prevent the savaging of our planet and ensure that everyone has enough, and the idea that " all economic growth lifts the fortunes of humanity " isn't working,  but it wasn't designed to work.

Humanity is on the back foot here and nature will fight back, and it's more powerful that any gun, but theory and especially Thomas Malthus 1803 will be the narrative, and the viruses,  the poverty,  the mass migration will be the norm, and viruses not allowing to go to the pub or eat out or blah blah blah or be an infringement on your rights, even more blah blah blah......

Innovation by necessity isn't a long term solution to anything, but there is also a cohort that will continue to fight against it, and historically they weren't around to see or benefit from innovation of the longer term, a pint indoors gives them the "right " to undermine and potentially harm others, treason springs to mind.

Covid-19 is a deadly virus,  but I fear its only the beginning of thousands that will pop up, and the planet and its people will simply recycle the same inane claptrap whist the underlying issues continue to write the agenda and narrative.

Covid 19 is only deadly from a humanity perspective,  every living organism is probably hoping that it will kill that perspective,  after all  they've trived, humans not so much


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## Purple (8 Nov 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Once we know how it works and are capable of developing defensive drugs its just going to be something that will be controlled in the western world and that's allegedly more important....until.
> 
> My fear is that as humanity keeps destroying the planet it shares with billions of other species, the pandora box will open and it's not beyond the laws of probability point to another virus,  or a virus that has linked to other viruses that will be beyond the scientific capability that we have.
> 
> ...


I agree with all of that but we've been destroying our environment for as long as we've existed. We hunted most large mammals to extinction and destroyed most of our forests before we ere even farmers.  


Paul O Mahoney said:


> Covid-19 is a deadly virus,  but I fear its only the beginning of thousands that will pop up, and the planet and its people will simply recycle the same inane claptrap whist the underlying issues continue to write the agenda and narrative.
> 
> Covid 19 is only deadly from a humanity perspective,  every living organism is probably hoping that it will kill that perspective,  after all  they've trived, humans not so much


This I don't agree with. Covid19 is a serious virus but with a better than 99% survival rate it's not deadly. 
Every day 2195 children die of diarrhoea, an illness that is 100% curable with a treatment of some food and clean water. Covid19 is only a 'deadly disease' because rich white people are dying from it.


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## Paul O Mahoney (8 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> I agree with all of that but we've been destroying our environment for as long as we've existed. We hunted most large mammals to extinction and destroyed most of our forests before we ere even farmers.
> 
> This I don't agree with. Covid19 is a serious virus but with a better than 99% survival rate it's not deadly.
> Every day 2195 children die of diarrhoea, an illness that is 100% curable with a treatment of some food and clean water. Covid19 is only a 'deadly disease' because rich white people are dying from it.


If we didn't have vaccines or modern medicine including machines such as ventilators the death toll would huge,  over 250m have been infected according to WHO, look at Russia poor vaccine uptake big daily deaths and infections. 

We don't know the full extent of deaths in poorer countries with any degree of accuracy and whatever figure is reported is likely to be a lot less than the reality, poor countries don't have the mechanisms in place to report accurately. 
Even the Ebola outbreak figures are thought be a tiny fraction of what really happened. 

If we ever find out the true figures they're going to shock the world.


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## Paul O Mahoney (8 Nov 2021)

Country with half a million secret Covid deaths
					

The largest country in Europe, already suffering under a wave of Covid-19-related deaths, may have under-reported mortality from the disease by half a million people with three times as many people now thought to have died.




					www.news.com.au
				




I'm posting this just as an example of the lack of accuracy in Russia on deaths , I don't know if the alternative figures are true but who knows.


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## Purple (8 Nov 2021)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> If we didn't have vaccines or modern medicine including machines such as ventilators the death toll would huge, over 250m have been infected according to WHO, look at Russia poor vaccine uptake big daily deaths and infections.


If we didn't have modern medicine there would be far fewer of us and lots of diseases we now regard as minor would be deadly.


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## Paul O Mahoney (8 Nov 2021)

Purple said:


> If we didn't have modern medicine there would be far fewer of us and lots of diseases we now regard as minor would be deadly.


Exactly, all the viruses that are harmful have been rendered ineffective to a large degree, but they are still deadly and harmful and present in the environment. 

We are living a charmed existence and hopefully it will continue.


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## odyssey06 (9 Dec 2021)

This is the long article from the Guardian about the death of a 43 year fitness fanatic from covid who refused the vaccine.

Setting aside the vaccine aspect of it, in relation to the deadliness of the disease, this section I thought was of significance:

_The Covid mortality rate for a 40-year-old with no underlying health conditions is about one in every 1,490 people infected._
_How do you explain how a supremely fit 42-year-old man died of a disease typically thought to afflict older people or those with underlying conditions?_
_People with variants on the chromosome 3 region alone were up to twice as likely to develop severe Covid as someone without that genetic mutation. Chromosome 3 mutations are carried in about 10% of people of European ancestry, meaning that *such people have a 10% chance of being twice as susceptible to severe Covid infection*._









						The life and tragic death of John Eyers – a fitness fanatic who refused the vaccine
					

He did triathlons, bodybuilding and mountain climbing and became sceptical of the Covid jab. Then, at 42, he contracted the virus




					www.theguardian.com


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## Clamball (12 Dec 2021)

The factors that make it dangerous is not the actual death rate any more but a mixture of the following


It is not dying out.  SARS in 2003 died out in a matter of months.  Covid-19 keeps coming back.  The news from the UK is that each citizen will probably be exposed to the Omicron variant in the next 3 weeks
Long-Covid is a genuine concern.  Many will suffer the impact of long covid for months and years after the initial infection which places a high burden on society.  You still see the impact of polio outbreaks in Europe from the 1950-1970’s
Global travel allows for the rapid spread of disease.  There is no time with covid-19, even now 2 years in for  local areas to see the disease spread and move closer and closer.  Days after the omicron variant was recognised a company in Norway had a party and boom 120 people infected.  Cases pop up in every country within days.
The vaccines wane over time and become less effective.  Doctors often recommend women have a blood test to detect rubella antibodies before becoming pregnant many years after vaccination, if they are unable to produce a vaccine record.  The vaccine lasts a lifetime.  But it is looking likely that covid will go the way of flu, a yearly or more frequent vaccine.  I am getting my booster later this week, so my vaccine status is quite low now after 6-7 months post full vaccination.  
The randomness of the disease symptoms and severity is a large unknown.  Are you going to be the asymptomatic case or the sicker than you have ever been in your life case?
The sheer numbers catching covid every day here in Ireland.  At an average of 4-5000 a day every day for weeks there is just way too much circulation of the disease locally in Ireland.  
I don’t think people have an irrational fear, I do think it is very rational given the various strands of informed knowledge we have of the disease currently.


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