# Did I hear right? Acedemic on RTE1 Radio claims 0.25 Trillion rather than 80 Billion!



## kdoc (22 Nov 2010)

On Drivetime on RTE radio I'm nearly certain I heard an academic, disagreeing with the 80 billion figure, claiming that the figure required was a quarter of a trillion!!! If this is true we are surely doomed.


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## belview (22 Nov 2010)

Yes you heard right

And wait for it Eamon Gilmore said today  that now that we are going to get an IMF/EU Bailout that we now no longer need to take 6 Billion in cuts next year

God save us.


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## z107 (22 Nov 2010)

Who exactly is being bailed out with this quarter of a trillion. A country with a population of 4.5million?

So we're Europe's bitch now then are we?


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## Marion (22 Nov 2010)

belview said:
			
		

> god save us.


Try typing IMF in predictive text on your mobile. 

Maybe that's who Eamon O Cuiv was praying to?

Marion

I heard it - I didn't make it up - well except I added on the Eamon O Cuiv bit. ​


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## maureen (22 Nov 2010)

if Gilmore says anymore 'crap' like that, we will be seeing exactly what the IMF wants from us sooner rather than later. I am very disappointed in him.We need someone sensible not someone spouting rubbish, time is so gone for that.


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## Duke of Marmalade (22 Nov 2010)

This seems to be a misunderstanding of the situation. Currently the ECB is propping up the banking system to the tune of 130Bn. Unchecked that could rise to 250Bn and more if there was a retail run on the banks. 

The government are being allowed a 40 bn fund to capitalise the banks and try and encourage bondholders back. If it doesn't work it is the ECB who remain on the hook. Ireland is not borrowing to fund the banks rather to capitalise them. So, in summary, yes the .25Tn is possible but it will mostly come from the ECB.


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## Smart_Saver (23 Nov 2010)

It was just on the 1 o'cock news there that a spokesman from German parliment stated that the fate of the Euro was now in Irish hands !! Wow !!
Well if this is the case fair enough. However it has to be looked at as an opportunity for this present (unsufferable) government to negotiate the loan that is coming fro the ECB/IMF/EU. The figures bandies about for this are collassal - anyways you look at them.
Right now we should be negotiating this loan at the best rate possibel - I don't know but what about between 1.5 and 2% maximum and probably fixed over 10 years. This is the price if Germany wants to keep the euro going. 
Otherwise we go bankrupt to keep other countries happy.


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## Duke of Marmalade (23 Nov 2010)

kdoc said:


> On Drivetime on RTE radio I'm nearly certain I heard an academic, disagreeing with the 80 billion figure, claiming that the figure required was a quarter of a trillion!!! If this is true we are surely doomed.


I now know that the academic is Brian Lucey. He is an absolute idiot, do a search for proof. Sorry if this offends AAM guidelines.


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## Westie123 (23 Nov 2010)

GoMayoGo said:


> Right now we should be negotiating this loan at the best rate possibel - I don't know but what about between 1.5 and 2% maximum and probably .



Dream on. It looks like it is going to be 7%!!!! This post will be deleted if not edited immediately, Greece was only 5%,
and we thought they were a basket case.This country is royally screwed.


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## The_Banker (24 Nov 2010)

Yes, I heard 7%...

So much for the skills of negotations for FF.

Not doubt the penal rate is to scare Portugal and Spain off from looking for a bail out.
Madness... Ireland will become a wasteland if the 7% figure is true.


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## Time (24 Nov 2010)

Shocking stuff altogether.


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## kdoc (24 Nov 2010)

That figure was mentioned again on the Vincent Browne programme where analyst, Paul Somerville, agreed with the figures produced by Brian Lucey. It looks like default is the only way to go.


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## Firefly (24 Nov 2010)

The figure was estimated at somewhere between 180bn and 250bn on Newstalk this morning...annual interest bill @5% was approx 10bn a year - we can only default eventually IMO.


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## bluemac (24 Nov 2010)

on  Vincent Brownethey made a lot of sence
they said
we need an election in the next 3 weeks so as of today,
in the mean time let the treasury bank out a solution with the eu and IMF
as well as that put 5 independent experts the best we have in the country in there as well and over the next 3 weeks they can give there option.
then in 3 weeks we have politcal stability with a mandate, they have a budget they can review and a plan from the experts a plan from the treasury and I assume a plan from the EU and IMF.. bring through the new budget get them to work over christmas to get it all in place..  then we can begin to look forward..  but it needs to start today..


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## Westie123 (24 Nov 2010)

On the VB programme Paul Somerville and Brian Lucey estimated that the debt will be around 343bn!!, with an annual interest bill of 15-18 bn. I feel like we are in a country that is being used as some kind of macabre economic experiment to see what a modern country would look like after being financially laid waste, a bit like Winthorpe in the film "Trading Places"


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## Smart_Saver (24 Nov 2010)

Are we stuck between a rock and a hard place ? 

If we default will/can we be kicked out of the Eurozone ? Take that scenario - if it happens isn't our corporate tax rate irrelevant? Wouldn't we then be subject to Eurozone taxes on all our exports including ones from US multinationals?

If we don't default then we incur an totally unrealistic bill on the state and us the residents. 

How do you play poker with that hand ?


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## TLC (24 Nov 2010)

It just shows how diverse & confusing the situation is - hardly any "experts" agree, so what hope do we have that the government will get it right.  Their track record is nothing to go by.  Even the comments made by Eldridge were contradicted by Dukes - what a mess! (Alan Dukes by the way was one of the architects of the AIB/ICI rip off as far as I remember)


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## bluemac (24 Nov 2010)

We wont be kicked out of the Eurozone if we default I cannot see that as long as we do not default on the sovereign dept we need to pay this and we can..  but the banks we need to fully default on and let the ECB pick up the tab if they want to save them or if not the bond holders.. or that 0.25 trillion will slowly crush us all.


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## Smart_Saver (24 Nov 2010)

That point about our sovereign debt was made on VB last night. Said that we have to separate the Country from the Banks and get rid of the Sovereign guarantee on them. And the only guarantee the Sovereign State should implement is the deposits currently in these institutions.

And then let them default and as you say bluemac let ECB make the decision on what position they want to take on them.

However again - if we default then we also have to begin to work this country on a budget (currently 31 Billion - but realistically much less if we default) and run the country within this figure "IMMEDIATELY"!!

And also pay off what we guaranteed as Sovereign debt & deposits.

Is that the lesser of the two evils?


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## Cooloco (24 Nov 2010)

That's MAD Ted !! 
The same clowns that got us into this MESS are going to be negotiating on our behalf !!
Ah sure,nothing to worry about now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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