# Eoin McGee: "It doesn't make financial sense to pay off your mortgage."



## Finance_Novice (13 Feb 2021)

Our strategy has always been to repay our mortgage as quickly as possible while maintaining our lifestyle but having watched "How to be good with money" with Eoin McGee and following him on Instagram, we are wondering if that is still the right strategy. He suggests that investing into a fund is a better use of excess cash than overpaying the mortgage.


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## Brendan Burgess (13 Feb 2021)

Finance_Novice said:


> 1. Our strategy has always been to repay our mortgage as quickly as possible while maintaining our lifestyle but having watched "How to be good with money" with Eoin McGee and following him on Instagram, we are wondering if that is still the right strategy. He suggests that investing into a fund is a better use of excess cash than overpaying the mortgage.



Can you provide a link to where Eoin says this?

It makes no sense to borrow money at 2.75% to put it in a risky  investment (outside a pension fund)  which might or might not return 2.75% after tax and expenses.


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## Brendan Burgess (13 Feb 2021)

Hi Finance Novice, I thought that you might have misundstood him, but I have seen it for myself.









						Is it a good idea to overpay your Mortgage?   Task - go vote on the poll on my story. I’ll share the overall result. (Your answer will be kept private) | By Eoin McGee | Facebook
					

4.3K views, 62 likes, 0 loves, 12 comments, 3 shares, Facebook Watch Videos from Eoin McGee: Is it a good idea to overpay your Mortgage?   Task - go vote on the poll on my story. I’ll share the...




					www.facebook.com
				




_It doesn’t make financial sense in most cases

But it might make emotional sense

There are some cases w here it makes sense, even if it does not make financial sense._


_If you are going to pay it anyway,_
_Paying a little extra every month makes no financial sense_
_The extra money is gone if you ever need it back_
_You lose your job_
_You get sick_

_If the mortgage is keeping you up at night, reducing it might make sense_
_But the opposite is true,  if it’s keeping you awake at night , because you might get sick not be able to pay your mortgage, you would be glad to have the money._

_There are maths behind this too_
_It doesn’t make sense unless you are clearing it off completely_

That is very poor advice from him.

He does not explain why.  He just asserts that "it makes no financial sense."

In this piece he does not go into the alternatives. 

Here is a summary of when it might not a good idea to overpay your mortgage

If you are on a cheap tracker
If you are trading up in the meantime
If there is a fair chance that you might need the money in the short to medium term
If you have scope to make pension contributions which attract tax relief at 40%
But it is much better to pay off your mortgage than

to invest in an investment product as it would have to make a very large return before tax and expenses to be better.
as most people do, leave it sitting in a deposit account earning very little
as many do, to just blow it on things you don't really need.

Brendan


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## Younginvestor93 (13 Feb 2021)

Here on aam, the advice seems to be to pay it off to get a guaranteed risk free return.

I have heard advice from Paul Merriman of ask_paul on instagram promote the same thing. In one scenario he suggests if the rate is 3 or 3.5% then it might be worthwhile paying it off but if it's lower than that you should invest your money and try to make it work harder for you. 

Different strategies I suppose.

If you have 20 years left on a mortgage, would the money not work harder for you in an investment account over a long period like that than being used to pay off the mortgage. Also, its available to access if there was an emergency whereas when you pay the mortgage its gone.


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## Marc (13 Feb 2021)

It’s very dangerous to make generalisations like this.

It can make very good financial sense in fact I’m planning on doing it myself.









						Should I Overpay my Mortgage or Pay into a Pension? - Everlake
					

As with many things, the right course of action is going to be specific to your individual financial circumstances.




					globalwealth.ie
				




I have a loan with a monthly payment of €265pm which means I need to earn €509pm to meet those payments. Gross salary less taxes to meet the net payment

To be “better than paying off the mortgage” I need to make a return to compensate for the tax on the salary, plus investment charges plus tax on the profits of my investment.

just to be clear I have no idea how I would generate such a return, it’s simply not credible and not with the certainty of clearing the mortgage.

So, by clearing the mortgage I free up €265pm which allows me to save €509pm in my pension (company contribution and reduced salary) which then grows in a tax free environment.


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## Brendan Burgess (13 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> Also, its available to access if there was an emergency whereas when you pay the mortgage its gone.



You need to distinguish between "access" and "gone".

In some circumstances, I advise against contributing to a pension fund, as the person can't access it until they retire. But I would not ever say "The money is gone." 

If you overpay your mortgage, you will have lower repayments in the future.  So while you are losing temporary access, you will probably access more in the long-term.

Most of us can access emergency money either via an overdraft, credit card or family loan.  

But if you want to have an emergency fund, by all means, having €20k in an emergency fund is fine. But having 100k , is not a good idea.

Brendan


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## Gordon Gekko (13 Feb 2021)

“Advisors who get paid when people invest in ‘advice that people should invest’ shocker”

Unless a person has a tracker with low rate, it’s difficult to envisage a scenario where it makes sense to invest rather than paying down a mortgage.

I like that Eoin McGee guy, but that’s an appalling piece.


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## Younginvestor93 (13 Feb 2021)

Is it not a calculation whereby if we take current mortgage rates at say 2.5% or less. If you put money away for 20 or 30 years, will it not grow at a rate after expenses and taxes of over 2.5%. I would of thought those returns would be very achievable over a long time frame?

Is that not what these guys are suggesting, that this sort of after tax return is attainable?


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## Gordon Gekko (13 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> Is it not a calculation whereby if we take current mortgage rates at say 2.5% or less. If you put money away for 20 or 30 years, will it not grow at a rate after expenses and taxes of over 2.5%. I would of thought those returns would be very achievable over a long time frame?
> 
> Is that not what these guys are suggesting, that this sort of after tax return is attainable?



It might.

But repaying a mortgage is the equivalent of getting a GUARANTEED return of circa 5/6% from an investment.

Imagine if there was an investment where you could get that sort of return, GUARANTEED?


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## Younginvestor93 (13 Feb 2021)

Gordon Gekko said:


> It might.
> 
> But repaying a mortgage is the equivalent of getting a GUARANTEED return of circa 5/6% from an investment.
> 
> Imagine if there was an investment where you could get that sort of return, GUARANTEED?


Where does the 5/6% return come from, how do you come up with that figure when repaying the mortgage?


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## RedOnion (13 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> Where does the 5/6% return come from, how do you come up with that figure when repaying the mortgage?


Grossed up for taxes, fees & charges...


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## Gordon Gekko (13 Feb 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> Where does the 5/6% return come from, how do you come up with that figure when repaying the mortgage?



A return of 6% would net out at around 2.5%ish after fees and taxes.

And that’s if things go well!


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## RedOnion (13 Feb 2021)

What makes the advice a little more unusual, is Eoin constantly promotes a 'no-brainer portfolio' of 60/40. 

Why would anyone invest 40% in bonds while carrying mortgage debt, which is essentially a negative bond?


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## Brendan Burgess (13 Feb 2021)

RedOnion said:


> Eoin constantly promotes a 'no-brainer portfolio' of 60/40.




It's a no brainer ok.  He needs to use the brain a bit more.

Brendan


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## Gordon Gekko (13 Feb 2021)

RedOnion said:


> Grossed up for taxes, fees & charges...



I set-up an investment portfolio. It does well and makes 6%. I’d be doing well to get away with fees of 1%. And then call tax 40% of the gross. That’s 2.6%. Taxes are not an exact science but taking 40% as a blend of 33%, 41%, and 52% shouldn’t be too far off.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (13 Feb 2021)

RedOnion said:


> Why would anyone invest 40% in bonds while carrying mortgage debt,


Possibility of capital appreciation? (I admit it's unlikely with rates already so low)


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## Finance_Novice (13 Feb 2021)

I didn't realise I would inadvertently generate such debate  My wife saw him offer this advice on one of his Instagram Q&A sessions. We like how he simplifies financial jargon and enjoy his shows but this one confused us. We are by no means financial experts so thought it would be best to reconfirm on this website. Glad I asked now. Thanks for all the replies so far.


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## Brendan Burgess (13 Feb 2021)

Finance_Novice said:


> We like how he simplifies financial jargon



He needs to get the balance right between simplification and giving the right advice.

If I had to simplify it, the answer would be "In most cases, pay off your debt before doing anything else."  It will be right most of the time. It will be wrong sometimes, but not by much. 

Brendan


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## RedOnion (13 Feb 2021)

NoRegretsCoyote said:


> Possibility of capital appreciation? (I admit it's unlikely with rates already so low)


Possibly.  You're just gambling on interest rate movements though.  Long term bond funds have had a phenomenal return over the last 2 years.  But, over a longer term investment timeframe it doesn't make sense; held to maturity the return is known (with a credit risk), and the maturing bonds are replaced with lower yielding ones.


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## NoRegretsCoyote (13 Feb 2021)

@RedOnion 

Agree. If you're wealthy enough to be taking a punt on interest rates you're probably wealthy enough not to have a mortgage.


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## presidenttttt (13 Feb 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> But it is much better to pay off your mortgage than
> 
> to invest in an investment product as it would have to make a very large return before tax and expenses to be better.
> as most people do, leave it sitting in a deposit account earning very little
> ...



Hi Brendan, is there any data on this? You state most people leave excess income sit in a savings account.  I would be curious to know how many people who can overpay their mortgage actually do it?



Gordon Gekko said:


> I set-up an investment portfolio. It does well and makes 6%. I’d be doing well to get away with fees of 1%. And then call tax 40% of the gross. That’s 2.6%. Taxes are not an exact science but taking 40% as a blend of 33%, 41%, and 52% shouldn’t be too far off.



So in essence, break even is a waste of time considering the risk attached to it. 

Considering the risk and the admin hassle, i would want to be very confident of netting at least 1% more, over time that might just compound to be worthwhile. How many investment options can claim confidence in a 7.5% return?


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## DublinHead54 (14 Feb 2021)

presidenttttt said:


> Hi Brendan, is there any data on this? You state most people leave excess income sit in a savings account.  I would be curious to know how many people who can overpay their mortgage actually do it?



Irish Deposits at banks are around €120 billion. Interestingly this grew to the highest levels during Covid suggesting that there is 'free cashflow' just sitting on deposit.

The report below also has some interesting trends etc. However, I'm not sure there's a data set that ties each deposit amount to that individuals mortgage. I agree with Brendan's assumption.

Household Credit Market Report 2019


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## SPC100 (14 Feb 2021)

We don't know what mortgage rates will be over life of mortgage, so while a return guaranteed, the return is not guaranteed.


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## Gordon Gekko (14 Feb 2021)

SPC100 said:


> We don't know what mortgage rates will be over life of mortgage, so while a return guaranteed, the return is not guaranteed.



That’s sounds like a line that brokers could use to sell people an Investment Bond who might otherwise pay off their mortgage.


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Feb 2021)

SPC100 said:


> We don't know what mortgage rates will be over life of mortgage, so while a return guaranteed, the return is not guaranteed.



Hi SPC

I had wondered about this point. 

I am campaigning for Irish mortgage rates to fall, so I hope that they will.

But they are more likely to rise in the medium to long-term.

Today, it makes no sense to borrow money at 2.5% to put it on deposit at 0%.

I suspect that when/if  normal markets resume, the deposit rate will still be about 2% less than the mortgage rate.  And of course, the deposit rate will be subject to tax.

So it's fairly clear that people should pay off their mortgage rather than put it on deposit.

But apparently McGee suggests borrowing at the mortgage rate to invest in a fund with an uncertain return.  This is wrong. And rising mortgage rates will make it more wrong.

Brendan


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## SPC100 (14 Feb 2021)

I repeatedly see people on this site, repeating the mantra incorrectly, 'it's a guaranteed 2-3 p.c. forever', and I wanted to correct this. We don't have crystal ball for mortgage rates or market returns.

INot a line from a broker. A line from me! But if you are quoting me, Please let the customer know, I strongly agree with paying down mortgage, having money just sitting in a deposit account is a big waste.

It's much less clear to me if the choice is pension investment vs mortgage overpayment. if higher tax relief available and employer match is not maximized I think pension definitely wins. I think pension likely wins even if only higher rate tax relief is available.

But I think more personalized guidance is needed before deciding to invest rather than paydown mortgage.

Brendan, does similar economic logic, imply the stock market return should be higher than the mortgage interest rate.


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## Gordon Gekko (14 Feb 2021)

SPC100 said:


> I repeatedly see people on this site, repeating the mantra incorrectly, 'it's a guaranteed 2-3 p.c. forever', and I wanted to correct this. We don't have crystal ball for mortgage rates or market returns.
> 
> INot a line from a broker. A line from me! But if you are quoting me, Please let the customer know, I strongly agree with paying down mortgage, having money just sitting in a deposit account is a big waste.
> 
> ...



I don’t think anyone is comparing pension investment vs mortgage overpayment.

It’s personal investing vs mortgage overpayment.


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Feb 2021)

SPC100 said:


> Brendan, does similar economic logic, imply the stock market return should be higher than the mortgage interest rate.



I don't know. All I know that there is huge uncertainty that the after tax and after expenses return on a stock market investment will exceed the mortgage rate.

And that the potential excess return does not justify the risk involved.

Brendan


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## NoRegretsCoyote (14 Feb 2021)

SPC100 said:


> I repeatedly see people on this site, repeating the mantra incorrectly, 'it's a guaranteed 2-3 p.c. forever', and I wanted to correct this. We don't have crystal ball for mortgage rates or market returns.



In 2011 you could have bought a bond that paid 5% instead of paying off your mortgage. Mortgage rates have fallen since, and the bond would be subsidising your mortgage today.

But interest rates have fallen *so far *that there is almost no scenario where mortgage rates will fall so far that the coupon on a bond you buy today will ever be higher.


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## Brendan Burgess (14 Feb 2021)

I see that I did a Key Post a couple of months ago 






						Key Post - Overpay mortgage or contribute to pension or do something else?
					

This comes up in a lot of different threads, so I will set out some principles here to kick off the discussion. I will edit it in the light of feedback.  There are many options with your savings in excess of your emergency cash fund  Pay down your mortgage Build up a fund to enable you to trade...



					www.askaboutmoney.com


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## SPC100 (14 Feb 2021)

Nice! Although it seems a bit conservative on the pension vs mortgage part. e.g. only if 'underfunded' or if your interest costs are .5%


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## SPC100 (14 Feb 2021)

So we all agree don't invest with after tax money given Ireland's tax regime, as your investment has to do very well to overcome tax and expenses.

Don't listen to Eoin.

But, what about inside pension?

If you are managing your finances excellently today, you are likley on 1.9-2.3% mortgage, and you might be in a pension that is passively tracking global indices, with a total costs of a bit over 1%.  And you can get tax relief and potentially employer match on the way in. (but you do suffer taxes on drawdown).

If you are a marginal rate tax payer, who hasn't yet maxed your relief (at higher tax rate), and you have resonable sized mortgage, wouldn't it be highly expected that the pension will outperform over the long term?


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## Gordon Gekko (14 Feb 2021)

Yes, I would back pension in that instance, all other things being equal


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## ArthurMcB (14 Feb 2021)

I dont understand the last two posts.

I thouggt we have been saying that pay down mortg generally makes sense versus investing because invedt would need to do exceptionally well to beat the guaranteed retirn in paying fown mortgage.

How does that logic suddenly not apply to last parag in SPCs last post above?

What releavnce re marginal rate tax payer?
If mortg is say 2%, wouldnt the pension investment, regardless of whther marginal tax payer or not, still need to do exceptionally well to beat guaranteed mortg return? Why, in this instance, is it more advisable to invest rather than pay down mortg?


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## Marc (14 Feb 2021)

What was the average mortgage rate over the last 30 years. I’m fairly sure it wasn’t 3%


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## nest egg (14 Feb 2021)

ArthurMcB said:


> I dont understand the last two posts.
> 
> I thouggt we have been saying that pay down mortg generally makes sense versus investing because invedt would need to do exceptionally well to beat the guaranteed retirn in paying fown mortgage.
> 
> ...



If it's the choice of after-tax income being invested, you're unlikely to do better than over-paying your mortgage. If it's a pre-tax income like a pension, and you're in the top tax bracket, it becomes a trickier comparison.


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## Gordon Gekko (15 Feb 2021)

ArthurMcB said:


> I dont understand the last two posts.
> 
> I thouggt we have been saying that pay down mortg generally makes sense versus investing because invedt would need to do exceptionally well to beat the guaranteed retirn in paying fown mortgage.
> 
> ...



Hi ArthurMcB,

Where someone is investing personal monies, the position is reasonably clear.

However, when it’s pension money, the position changes. There’s tax relief for starters whereby the State contributes up to 40% of investment monies. Then the invested capital can compound tax-free. And then at the end, it can be withdrawn on favourable terms via tax-free lump sums and the 20% rate band.

I practice what I preach, in that I maximise our AVCs, then overpay our mortgage, and only thereafter do I consider personally-held investments.

Gordon


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## michaelm (15 Feb 2021)

Brendan Burgess said:


> He needs to use the brain a bit more.


I've seen him ask "which do you need, critical illness cover or income protection?", then answer "you need both" . . more ropey advise in my opinion.


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## Marc (20 Mar 2021)

I've just completed a more detailed analysis of this question looking at the very specific 60/40 portfolio recommended in his book









						Should I Overpay my Mortgage or Pay into a Pension? - Everlake
					

As with many things, the right course of action is going to be specific to your individual financial circumstances.




					globalwealth.ie


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## SPC100 (20 Mar 2021)

Nice article. I like the graph for grossing up interest rates. Would be nice if you pushed the article a bit further at the end and created a table showing the difference in return after taxes for the two strategies using various tax rates that could apply on pension drawdown (dependent on pension earnings), and subtracted the extra interest paid.


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## SPC100 (20 Mar 2021)

I also like that you highlight the future return from paying down mortgage is not known as it depends on interest rates.


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## fungie20 (21 Mar 2021)

Nice article, I follow the mantra of paying off mortgage before out of pension investing but I've a few questions about some of the figures:

1) I would argue that an emergency fund isn't earning you interest at 14%. This would only be the case if an actual emergency happens and you couldn't pay it all off straight away. So unless an emergency is 'realised', it isn't really true, and most the time emergency funds don't get raided, thankfully. I like to think about an emergency fund as a form of insurance, I'm paying a premium to keep that money in cash, potentially losing value over time but buys security.

2) While you say nobody has a crystal ball, but looking at past interest rates, they were much higher and the money you pay off it are at the lifetime average interest rate. This is completely true statement but I would argue looking backwards to say interest was higher and therefore has a high likelihood of happening again isn't that likely. I would argue that we are more likely to see a 'Japanification' of interest rates staying low as populations age than 1970's Ireland rates.

3) I like the idea about thinking of gross roll up as the true rate but I don't agree with the calculations, nobody pays 52% tax in this country. Someone earning 100K pays 38.5% tax and this assumes they make no pension contributions, which is unlikely on a salary that high.


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## Gordon Gekko (21 Mar 2021)

It’s a decent piece of work.

The slight criticism I’d have relates to the 52%.

I don’t think it’s relevant.

It’s the tax rate applicable to the investment that’s relevant.


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## galway_blow_in (21 Mar 2021)

Younginvestor93 said:


> Here on aam, the advice seems to be to pay it off to get a guaranteed risk free return.
> 
> I have heard advice from Paul Merriman of ask_paul on instagram promote the same thing. In one scenario he suggests if the rate is 3 or 3.5% then it might be worthwhile paying it off but if it's lower than that you should invest your money and try to make it work harder for you.
> 
> ...



depends on how conservative someone is i guess , plenty of contributors on this forum who take a very conservative attitude to debt


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## RedOnion (21 Mar 2021)

Gordon Gekko said:


> It’s a decent piece of work.
> 
> The slight criticism I’d have relates to the 52%.
> 
> ...


Yes, reading it looks like there's a bit of double counting of the tax going on by both grossing up the mortgage interest rate, and comparing to the net after tax return of investing. Calculating the net, after tax, investment return and comparing to interest rate should be sufficient.

Otherwise it's a very clear article.


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## ATC110 (21 Mar 2021)

I invested in the Green Effects fund in 2006 when I had an ECB+0.5% tracker mortgage .

The fund value has increased by 180% net in that time.


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## money_man (22 Mar 2021)

It's been mentioned a few times that its only worth investing outside a pension if you have a low interest rate. What is the rate we're aiming for. Cheapest rate currently available is 1.95% with Avant Money. Global ETFs have returned greater than 10% over the last 10 years and I think about 8% over the last 20 with fees of a fraction of a percent. There's obviously a personal risk tolerance here but what's the consensus?


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## fungie20 (23 Mar 2021)

money_man said:


> It's been mentioned a few times that its only worth investing outside a pension if you have a low interest rate. What is the rate we're aiming for. Cheapest rate currently available is 1.95% with Avant Money. Global ETFs have returned greater than 10% over the last 10 years and I think about 8% over the last 20 with fees of a fraction of a percent. There's obviously a personal risk tolerance here but what's the consensus?


When you take the tax on etfs into account, it isn't really worth the risk.


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## noproblem (23 Mar 2021)

SPC100 said:


> Nice article. I like the graph for grossing up interest rates. Would be nice if you pushed the article a bit further at the end and created a table showing the difference in return after taxes for the two strategies using various tax rates that could apply on pension drawdown (dependent on pension earnings), and subtracted the extra interest paid.


(dependent on pension earnings) In brackets but very very important in this whole scenario.


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## money_man (23 Mar 2021)

fungie20 said:


> When you take the tax on etfs into account, it isn't really worth the risk.


After 8 years in the vangaurd all world fund Id have made an annualised 5.22% after tax, still retained access to my money and my mortgage would be costing 1.95?

Assuming the 20 year average return of 8%. 

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just trying to get the thought process straight in my mind. There must be a line after which it makes sense or a way to figure out that cut off point. But maybe I'm just not giving the guaranteed nature of the mortgage return enough credit (past performance not a guide to future returns etc. but over many decades it seems you still come out ahead from a low fee index?)


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## 50andOut (23 Mar 2021)

money_man said:


> After 8 years in the vangaurd all world fund Id have made an annualised 5.22% after tax, still retained access to my money and my mortgage would be costing 1.95?
> 
> Assuming the 20 year average return of 8%.
> 
> I'm not trying to be argumentative, just trying to get the thought process straight in my mind. There must be a line after which it makes sense or a way to figure out that cut off point. But maybe I'm just not giving the guaranteed nature of the mortgage return enough credit (past performance not a guide to future returns etc. but over many decades it seems you still come out ahead from a low fee index?)


Did you read the report Marc posted 1 page back?


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## zephyro (23 Mar 2021)

money_man said:


> After 8 years in the vangaurd all world fund Id have made an annualised 5.22% after tax, still retained access to my money and my mortgage would be costing 1.95?
> 
> Assuming the 20 year average return of 8%.


What was the mortgage rate 8 years ago though when you made this hypothetical investment? If you think 8% returns from this point are likely when the risk-free rate is 0, you're living in fantasy-land!


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## Cruzer123 (6 Apr 2021)

Just a real world example of how this strategy has paid off.

Back in 2006 I had a 30 year .5% tracker interest only mortgage of 900k, mad stuff for both me and the bank. I lost my job in '09 but continued to make payments and got myself back up and running. I've had some pretty bleak times with debt this hanging over me but luckily I had a really low monthly mortgage.

About 5 years ago realising I would never own the family home I invested my redundancy/savings into some high growth stocks. I also drip fed between 1.5/2K pm into the markets (+ some Crypto). I kept this up more or less since.

The basis for my investing targets was content from a few YouTubers and subscribing to a stock picking service (€17 pm). I chose not to invest in ETFs due to the punitive Irish tax situation compared to individual stocks, more information gleaned from an Irish blog at the time.

Lately I've been investing in SPAC's and EV stocks, doubling and trebling my money each time.

I've made some ridiculous gains and can easily pay down the mortgage (after CGT) which has 12 years left to run ( I refinanced with another bank on an LTV in 2008).

It's not for everyone and could have easily have gone wrong, just pointing out it can be done.


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## RedOnion (6 Apr 2021)

Cruzer123 said:


> It's not for everyone and could have easily have gone wrong, just pointing out it can be done.


Well done.

There's a difference between realising you took an investment risk that paid off with a 0.5% cost of borrowing, and promoting the same strategy as being the best thing for everyone, regardless of their interest rate. And then to double down by suggesting a 40% investment in bonds!


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## SPC100 (6 Apr 2021)

Congratulations!

Consider taking and keeping enough off the table to cover the mortgage/make you comfortable. It sounds like you are taking high risk and it has paid off, but it may not continue....


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