# Situation in Ireland in 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months



## moneymakeover

Any epidemiologist out there who can predict the situation in Ireland ?

For example, 

End of May : full blown crisis with ICU beds maxed out 
End of June: cases of covid19 beginning to decline
End of July: people starting to go back to work. Social isolation still being practiced

Jan 2021: things returning to normal
June 2021: vaccine rolled out: safe to venture out unprotected


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## cremeegg

Beyond May or June when we can hope to have passed the peak, the issue will be new sources of infection coming from places where the health service has collapsed.


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## moneymakeover

In China now they are returning to work.

Even the levels of unemployment seem low.

That's good news. Only 3 months on.

But I guess for the foreseeable they will continue distancing and masks etc

Perhaps they are more resilient than other populations?

Or more organised/ better technology?


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## Eireog007

moneymakeover said:


> In China now they are returning to work.
> 
> Even the levels of unemployment seem low.
> 
> That's good news. Only 3 months on.
> 
> But I guess for the foreseeable they will continue distancing and masks etc
> 
> Perhaps they are more resilient than other populations?
> 
> Or more organised/ better technology?



I would tend to lean towards the view that countries which tend to operate under a more totalitarian regime such as China will cope somewhat better with the virus as they will be able to lockdown their populations quicker and much more effectively and the populace won’t rebel as much.


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## moneymakeover

I also notice, on subject of testing

In US they are trialling a 1 hour test. That would be a huge advance. 

As the head of WHO said: test, test, test.

I don't get the impression the experts in Ireland are with this. Maybe we don't have the volume of test kits.

Sone hse expert on prime time said: a test won't be any use if you don't have the virus... I thought that a bit odd from an expert.

Why can't we manufacture test kits in Ireland?

What about: anyone traveling in public should be stopped and tested?


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## Sunny

You just cant test everyone. Otherwise you would have to do it every day as it could be negative one day and positive the next. Just not possible and you are using scarce resources. Ireland is one of the highest testers per capita in the world. To be fair, I think our response has been top notch so far. The NHS is close to collapse already and that is without proper testing. We have done a decent job so far at buying time even if it is only weeks.


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## seamus m

Are we using 4 hour test if not why


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## DeeKie

The testing situation is appalling. We’ve friends with the virus. They each were only put forward for testing after a few days of symptoms, when they got worse. Both four days and waiting. GPs of both are certain they have it. Apparently results are taking 3 days after testing to arrive. Of course they are isolating but it matters that the contact tracing doesn’t happen until results are given. It’s crazy. As the who says test test test. Ireland’s plans are being found severely lacking and it’s likely costing lives.


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## Eireog007

DeeKie said:


> The testing situation is appalling. We’ve friends with the virus. They each were only put forward for testing after a few days of symptoms, when they got worse. Both four days and waiting. GPs of both are certain they have it. Apparently results are taking 3 days after testing to arrive. Of course they are isolating but it matters that the contact tracing doesn’t happen until results are given. It’s crazy. As the who says test test test. Ireland’s plans are being found severely lacking and it’s likely costing lives.



The test situation may not be moving as fast as you personally want but we are testing a higher number per head of population than the majority of Europe and are ramping to a much faster daily test rate.

The simple fact is that we aren’t the only country looking to get our hands on large numbers of test kits and the supply is only just starting to catch up to the huge demand.


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## Brendan Burgess

I presume that there is a backlog in the labs as well? 

Brendan


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## DeeKie

Brendan Burgess said:


> I presume that there is a backlog in the labs as well?
> 
> Brendan


Yes.


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## Sophrosyne

DeeKie said:


> The testing situation is appalling.



It must be extremely stressful for those awaiting test results, but I would not describe the situation as “appalling”.

In fairness, perfect solutions cannot be put in place in days.

According to RTE

“The current wait time for a Covid-19 test is around five days with approximately 40,000 people waiting to be swabbed, the HSE said.

It expects the backlog to be tackled in the coming days.

HSE Chief Executive, Paul Reid, acknowledged there was a delay in people being tested for the Covid-19 virus.

But he said progress had been made with 40,000 kits being distributed at the moment and 20,000 more would be available on Wednesday.

He said the HSE was in advanced negotiations with China to secure another 100,000.

Community testing for the virus will also be increased from Monday.

Across Ireland, 50 test centres have been set up. There are 35 are currently operational including the LE Samuel Beckett which began operating as a test centre on Sir John Rogerson's Quay in Dublin this morning.

The largest centre is at Pairc Ui Chaoimh in Cork, which will be able to test 1,000 people each day.

Mr Reid said in the coming weeks the public would witness the Health system under stress like we had never known before.“


What is appalling however, is people not physically distancing _even at this stage_.

Yet if infected they would expect ready access to testing or a hospital bed or a ventilator for _themselves_ or _their_ family or _their_ friends whom they recklessly infected.


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## Leo

Brendan Burgess said:


> I presume that there is a backlog in the labs as well?



There is, a number of HSE labs are being repurposed to perform these tests to increase capacity.

There is also an issue with a high false negative rates for tests carried out too early in the infection cycle, so that, along with test kit availability, is likely a reason behind some of the delays in performing tests.


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## losttheplot

With a high rate of false negative for early stage testing, the delay in testing could help that.


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## Leper

According to RTE news an hour ago around 2000 tests per day are being done this week and next week it could be 15000 tests per day. That's quite a favourable jump in prospect.


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## DeeKie

Apparently the delay in processing the tests is taking so long that the sample has expired in some cases. Imagine how you would feel about that if you got tested


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## Brendan Burgess

Yesterday, when the Chief Medical Officer was asked where we were on the curve, he pointed to the start of the increase.  






Brendan


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## EmmDee

Bear in mind that a week or two ago, the success metric for these restrictions was to keep the outbreak to 10k by end of March / early April. I would think they are planning on there being a lot more infections over the coming week or two - especially if there are some cases which are yet to be confirmed through testing.

I'd think the numbers will jump over the coming week and then we'll see if it starts to flatten out


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## DeeKie

Without proper testing data and with such a backlog they don’t know. Knowledge is power and they don’t have much because of testing. I suppose they will have data on deaths.


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## RedOnion

DeeKie said:


> Without proper testing data and with such a backlog they don’t know. Knowledge is power and they don’t have much because of testing. I suppose they will have data on deaths.


They'll possibly also have data on hospital admissions, the number in ICU, etc?


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## DeeKie

RedOnion said:


> They'll possibly also have data on hospital admissions, the number in ICU, etc?


It’s pretty poor for modelling I would have thought. Nothing like Singapore.


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## RedOnion

DeeKie said:


> It’s pretty poor for modelling I would have thought. Nothing like Singapore.


Better than waiting til they die though.


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## DeeKie

Cold comfort. I’d like to see the public and media focus on improved testing and equipment purchases than focusing on a few instances where too many people gathered over the weekend.


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## Sunny

DeeKie said:


> Cold comfort. I’d like to see the public and media focus on improved testing and equipment purchases than focusing on a few instances where too many people gathered over the weekend.



No offence but why don't you leave it to the experts. The US are struggling to get access to kits and equipment. As are every other country. Italy seized respirators that Greece tried to buy even though there was an export ban in place. It is extremely difficult for every health organisation in the world and they are all doing their best in extremely difficult conditions as are Government politicians. Nothing will ever be perfect but all you have done on this thread and others is nit pick everything through ill informed comment.

We can't control supply of equipment but we can control social gatherings and the fact that you minimise what was seen at the weekend and how we all have a part to play shows you don't really understand what is happening. Easier to sit behind a computer moaning and bitching about the HSE and the Government.


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## Brendan Burgess

Sunny said:


> We can't control supply of equipment but we can control social gatherings



This is very important. 

We need to focus on what we can control. 

Brendan


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## Eireog007

Does anybody else feel that perhaps too much emphasis is being placed on the number of people awaiting testing given the assumption that anybody waiting on testing should be in the cohort of people who will have mild symptoms. Anybody who would be experiencing severe symptoms would be admitted to hospital regardless of whether or not they had been tested at that point and their results would most likely be expedited at this point.

I guess the point I'm making is that a lot of people are making a huge point of the 40k outstanding tests currently when in my view the important figures are the hospital admissions and ICU admissions. This is also with the huge caveat that I assume by now anybody who suspects they have Covid 19 knows enough to self isolate and not further infect others anymore than they may have in the first few days they were contagious.


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## SPC100

From any of them we can try to model we when we will run out of capacity. (And hence decide if we need to lock down harder)

Tests is start of the chain so gives us most amount of time to react(assuming no backlog). Deaths is end of the chain and we are too late to react by then.

I agree that today I focus more on admissions and critical care.


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## DeeKie

It’s going to take a lot longer to come out of this if they don’t test. There’s no lock down in Singapore. My cousin there has been tested a number of times. Quickly and results are very quick. She’s a teacher. She’s been negative so far but has had a bit of a cold and fever on and off. Once she was tested negative she could go back to work. So she is someone who would have been told in Ireland to self isolate and might have done so for a long period of time over the last month. Instead she is part of a functioning business. 

I think the testing situation has been pretty poor here. I read in the Irish Times this morning that they are changing the approach to testing again. It is good to see them adjusting but hopefully they will take a better approach to testing, as adopted in other jurisdictions.

I am very focused on what I can to myself, but it shouldn’t prevent me as a citizen who is concerned having a viewpoint and expressing a view. That’s what these discussions are for.


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## noproblem

Would it not be true to say that unless every single person is tested then it could all flare back up again seeing as there is no cure. Even when numbers go down what's to stop the whole thing flaring back up again? Not just in Ireland, but everywhere?
I've just spotted a post saying there's now new criteria for testing, if that's the case I can see more problems. You may not have the virus when tested but down the line you may have. Who's to say that because you don't have those new symptoms to have the test that you won't have the Coronavirus? What's the point otherwise?


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## Eireog007

noproblem said:


> Would it not be true to say that unless every single person is tested then it could all flare back up again seeing as there is no cure. Even when numbers go down what's to stop the whole thing flaring back up again? Not just in Ireland, but everywhere?
> I've just spotted a post saying there's now new criteria for testing, if that's the case I can see more problems. You may not have the virus when tested but down the line you may have. Who's to say that because you don't have those new symptoms to have the test that you won't have the Coronavirus? What's the point otherwise?



I would imagine that these new criteria are temporary to stop every hypochondriac in the country requesting to be tested when we don’t have the capacity currently to cope with those numbers. Last night the head of the testing group said they are building up to a capacity of 15,000 tests per day but that would take 3 or 4 weeks to get to. So in the meantime I’d imagine they are prioritising the cases that most accurately resemble the symptoms of the virus.


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## noproblem

Maybe Eireog, but the situation might suggest Dr's who are getting €30 a pop to read and sign off on the forms are just sending everyone along for the test. Has anyone filled in the form and been refused?


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## Eireog007

noproblem said:


> Maybe Eireog, but the situation might suggest Dr's who are getting €30 a pop to read and sign off on the forms are just sending everyone along for the test. Has anyone filled in the form and been refused?



Thats definitely possible you only have to look at our emergency departments in normal times to see that (some) GP’s are in the habit of hand balling cases off.
I do have some sympathy for them in this case as how difficult would it be to not refer somebody for testing in the middle of a pandemic. They are quite probably erring on the side of caution. These guidelines will give them the cover to not bow to every panicky person now.


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## Ceist Beag

noproblem said:


> Would it not be true to say that unless every single person is tested then it could all flare back up again seeing as there is no cure. Even when numbers go down what's to stop the whole thing flaring back up again? Not just in Ireland, but everywhere?


This video from PrimeTime explains it quite well - so testing is not what we should be focusing on, it's following the well publicised guidelines.


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## Purple

noproblem said:


> Would it not be true to say that unless every single person is tested then it could all flare back up again seeing as there is no cure


No, not unless everyone is tested every few days. That would be a monumental waste of resources.
Follow the guidelines and wait for the virus to die out.

Remember that the healthcare system is reactive to the virus and can only treat those who get it. It is the actions of the population at large which are proactive in tackling the virus as it is us, by those actions, who determine how many people get it.


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## odyssey06

Summarising points from *Prof Neil Ferguson*’s evidence to the UK Commons science committee as I think they are relevant here also :
* expect ... to see *intensive care unit demand peak in approximately two and a half to three weeks time*, and then decline thereafter. The reason for that lag is because it takes people something like two to three weeks from being infected to being in an intensive care unit.
* expects 10% of the population of London to be infected
* as countries around the world relaxed the suppression measures they would impose, they would have to rely on other strategies like testing and contact tracing

(from The Guardian)


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## odyssey06

If the 15 minute home tests below (mentioned by Firefly on main news thread) pan out, that would be a game changer.
Assuming they are made available here on same basis and relative quantities to the UK.
They may give a false sense of security if people test themselves too soon though (before antibodies appear):









						UK coronavirus home testing to be made available to millions
					

Test to be validated this week, then made available to healthcare workers and general public




					www.theguardian.com


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## SPC100

r/ireland - Importance of yesterday's move to make private hospitals public. We've managed to increase ICU capacity by 80% since this started.
					

1,603 votes and 218 comments so far on Reddit




					www.reddit.com
				




A graph projecting cases and capacity.


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## odyssey06

Grim stats from Italy on the impact on medical staff - will we see similar numbers here...

Thirty-nine health workers in Italy have died from coronavirus since the outbreak there began.
The virus has infected more than 5,000 doctors, nurses, technicians, ambulance staff and other health employees.
...
Negative-pressure isolation rooms, designed to contain airborne contaminants, are needed to treat coronavirus properly, to protect doctors and medical technicians from contracting the virus from their patients. But doctors say just a small proportion of Covid-19 patients in Italy are hospitalised in negative-pressure rooms, meaning the virus can easily spread. 








						'As if a storm hit': more than 40 Italian health workers have died since crisis began
					

Majority of those infected during early stages in the north when protective equipment lacking




					www.theguardian.com


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## john luc

snatching at any good news I note Italy is seeing a topping out of new cases and maybe peeking. if this so then over the next month they will get the hospital numbers down to a manageable number


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## john luc

also good news is our worst case scenario of 15000 by end of March is now alot less and our staying apart is helping this


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## odyssey06

THE HSE IS predicting that the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in Ireland will occur in two weeks time, between the 10 and 14 of April, according to the chief operations officer...
“But the other thing, just to reiterate, is that a peak will come and go whenever but we will continue to be very busy so it’s not like all of this will go away after the peak. We will continue to have a high number of people, an exceptionally large number of people, availing of our services once that peak has passed.”
She said if the measures introduced by the Government lead to a flattening of the curve, it also means the period of the peak outbreak will also be prolonged and will last for a number of days once it is reached, but that is the aim to avoid the HSE becoming overwhelmed all at once. 








						HSE planning for peak Covid-19 outbreak to happen in two weeks time based on current modelling
					

The chief operations officer said they are making preparations for the peak to arrive between the 10 and 14 April.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## llgon

odyssey06 said:


> THE HSE IS predicting that the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in Ireland will occur in two weeks time, between the 10 and 14 of April, according to the chief operations officer.



I watched all of the press conference. This was said during the questions at the end rather than from pre-prepared script. I might be wrong but I got the impression that it slipped out and was not intended to be made public. 

All of the speakers are obviously under severe pressure and exhausted but spoke very well and appear to be in control of the situation as well as they possibly can.


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## odyssey06

A self-isolation and step-down centre is to come into operation from next week at the Citywest Hotel and Conference centre in Dublin. 
The centre is being set up to ease pressures on hospitals in the Dublin region and surrounding areas as the number of people expected to test positive for the Covid-19 coroanavirus increases in the coming weeks... The step-down care facility will provide 450 beds allocated to people who have tested positive and are recovering from the virus. 








						Here's what the Covid-19 self-isolation and step-down care centre will look like in Dublin
					

The centre is expected to be operational this week, with more centres to be established in Cork, Limerick and Galway.




					www.thejournal.ie


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## llgon

Prof Nolan, who is chairing the modelling group, will be appearing at the Chief Medical Officers press conference this evening to speak about the latest models and projected cases over the coming weeks. However, it's difficult to find out what time those conferences are at.


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## Brendan Burgess

The messages certainly turned much more positive yesterday.  They seem to be saying that the measures have worked and we are going to avoid the very worst high peak which would have swamped the hospitals.









						Coronavirus: Restrictions resulting in ‘huge’ fall in rate of infection growth
					

Holohan warns on complacency as Higgins urges us to keep giving ‘of our best’




					www.irishtimes.com
				





_Prof Nolan, chair of the NPHET Irish epidemiological modelling advisory group, warned there was “no room for complacency” and the growth rate of the disease would have to be reduced to “close to zero” in order for it to be suppressed.

The daily growth rate of new cases has more than halved in recent weeks, from 33 per cent to about 15 per cent, he pointed out. As a result, Ireland is not on track for the “unmitigated epidemic” scenario that saw predictions earlier in March of 15,000 cases by the end of the month._


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## Brendan Burgess

RTE is even more cautious in its reporting: 









						More time needed for reliable surge projection - NPHET
					

Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, has said it is not possible to make a prediction on the surge in Covid-19 cases at this time, as more time was needed for a more reliable picture.




					www.rte.ie
				




_The chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group has said it was not possible to make a prediction on the surge in Covid-19 cases at this time, as more time was needed for a more reliable picture.

Speaking at this evening's Covid-19 briefing at the Department of Health, Professor Philip Nolan said that to make projections now on what things will be like in a few weeks or months would be inappropriate and based on assumptions that would be too broad.‬_


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## Firefly

Brendan Burgess said:


> _The chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group has said it was not possible to make a prediction on the surge in Covid-19 cases at this time, as more time was needed for a more reliable picture._



Given the lag there could very well be a spike in the coming days until the effects of Friday's lockdown take effect. It's encouraging, but we won't be organising pints anytime soon..


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## Eireog007

Brendan Burgess said:


> RTE is even more cautious in its reporting:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> More time needed for reliable surge projection - NPHET
> 
> 
> Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, has said it is not possible to make a prediction on the surge in Covid-19 cases at this time, as more time was needed for a more reliable picture.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rte.ie
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _The chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group has said it was not possible to make a prediction on the surge in Covid-19 cases at this time, as more time was needed for a more reliable picture.
> 
> Speaking at this evening's Covid-19 briefing at the Department of Health, Professor Philip Nolan said that to make projections now on what things will be like in a few weeks or months would be inappropriate and based on assumptions that would be too broad.‬_



I am quite happy for a more pessimistic/cautious outlook on how things are going myself. There are more than a few people who need little to no encouragement to back track if they think the worst is over. So under promise over deliver is the name of the game.


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## Brendan Burgess

Eireog007 said:


> I am quite happy for a more pessimistic/cautious outlook on how things are going myself.



It's a tough call. 

If you give people some hope, they might well be prepared to put up with the restrictions knowing that there is light at the end of the tunnel. 

If you tell people that everyone is going to die of this, then they might throw in the towel. 

Brendan


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## allaround

Brendan Burgess said:


> It's a tough call.
> 
> If you give people some hope, they might well be prepared to put up with the restrictions knowing that there is light at the end of the tunnel.
> 
> If you tell people that everyone is going to die of this, then they might throw in the towel.
> 
> Brendan



that's a fair point Brendan, I would also suggest that government stating possibility of 15k cases before the end of March has made people think about their behaviour/responsibility and we now see somewhat of a slowdown in % of cases increasing.


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## john luc

what are the numbers for recovered people. that number gives people hope that those getting sick also get better


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## Eireog007

john luc said:


> what are the numbers for recovered people. that number gives people hope that those getting sick also get better



Still at 5 but I wouldn’t stress that number too highly as it takes a long time for recovery if hospitalised and I’m not sure how closely they are monitoring those with minor symptoms.
Only numbers of any real concern are hospitalisations, ICU admisssions and deaths really. To a lesser extent the daily new case number is also relevant but less of a critical issue if the other numbers are not rising in tandem.


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## odyssey06

Eireog007 said:


> Still at 5 but I wouldn’t stress that number too highly as it takes a long time for recovery if hospitalised and I’m not sure how closely they are monitoring those with minor symptoms.
> Only numbers of any real concern are hospitalisations, ICU admisssions and deaths really. To a lesser extent the daily new case number is also relevant but less of a critical issue if the other numbers are not rising in tandem.



On that - saw this on RTE:
The President of the Intensive Care Society of Ireland says she is encouraged that there is a fall off in Covid-19 cases and contact cases and "devoutly hopes" that the restrictions are working and will continue to work. However, Dr Catherine Motherway warned that ICUs in Dublin are under significant pressure with *107 patients on ventilators* while there are another *26 patients, with suspected coronavirus, in ICU beds*.


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## odyssey06

noproblem said:


> I would be very surprised if she actually said that. If she did, she shouldn't have, because there's a bit of a shock coming down the line and she would have known that.



I take your point... but here is the link to the brief RTE article:








						As it happened: More than 3,000 cases in Ireland
					

The President of the Intensive Care Society of Ireland says she is encouraged that there is a fall off in Covid-19 cases and contact cases and "devoutly hopes" that the restrictions are working and will continue to work. However, Dr …




					www.rte.ie


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## noproblem

odyssey06 said:


> I take your point... but here is the link to the brief RTE article:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As it happened: More than 3,000 cases in Ireland
> 
> 
> The President of the Intensive Care Society of Ireland says she is encouraged that there is a fall off in Covid-19 cases and contact cases and "devoutly hopes" that the restrictions are working and will continue to work. However, Dr …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rte.ie


Yes, I got it and understand. I have deleted my original post, I think.


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## Leo

noproblem said:


> Yes, I got it and understand. I have deleted my original post, I think.



Aw, I thought you might have some inside info    I deleted your edited post and my reply.


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## noproblem

Leo said:


> Aw, I thought you might have some inside info    I deleted your edited post and my reply.



Ahem!


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## SPC100

I watched yesterday's press conference, he was very precise. He said that the rate of growth is dropping which is good, but it is impossible to predict peak or surge as the model is very sensitive to inputs.

He said we will need to wait a week or so before any accuracy for a prediction. (To see the effect of the latest restrictions).


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