# Pope Bendedict, dawn of a new conservative era



## techman1 (25 Apr 2005)

Pope Benedicts election was a seismic event it confirms we are now entering a new very conservative era. The liberal era lasted from the end of the second world war to 2000. The liberals were dumbfounded that George Bush was elected in 2000 and re elected in 2004. Now they are flabergasted at the election of Pope Benedict. In this new century things don't seem to be going the liberals way. Of course it is an evolving process and the election in Britain will probably see the re election of Tony Blair, however it is a very different Tony Blair to the one in 1997. It is a Tony Blair that fought a war alongside George Bush in Iraq, it is a Tony Blair who no longer has pop stars and soccer stars around to No 10 but religous leaders. I believe that one by one we will see the fall of all the socialist governments in Europe to be replaced by very conservative governments. Europeans are now frightened by islamic fundamentalism and they now want governments who will clamp down on immigration. 
        I also think that liberal economics will be replaced by conservative economics with the money supply tightened up after the long loose period of money supply that followed the second world war. America will have to take drastic measures to restore faith in the dollar, I think that means alot of the new economy industries that depend on a loose monetary policy will be sacrificed. I also believe that the world economy will revert from consumerism back to producerism. The one thing the world is not short of is consumers.


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## ajapale (25 Apr 2005)

Hi techman,
Perhaps you could redraft the 'Financial Debate' you are attempting to starte here. As it currently stands, I suggest, your statement is far too broad ranging to spark off a constructive debate.


ajapale


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## Madonna (25 Apr 2005)

I don't think Bende will have any influence on Western economics.


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## ClubMan (25 Apr 2005)

techman1 said:
			
		

> Pope Benedicts election was a seismic event it confirms we are now entering a new very conservative era.



How so? Surely it merely suggests that the limited "electorate" (the conclave) is a conservative bunch. Hardly any surprise there and arguably little to do with the real world as _Madonna _suggests.



> In this new century things don't seem to be going the liberals way.



The gays and prospective divorcees of Spain might beg to differ, whether they consider themselvs liberal or not. Just one example.



> I also believe that the world economy will revert from consumerism back to producerism.



What does this mean? Surely all macroeconomics is ultimately based on matching supply (production) with demand (consumption) and any imbalance in either is unsustainable?


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## techman1 (26 Apr 2005)

The world works in long term trends, Im not saying that Pope Benedicts election will cause a conservative era but it confirms that it is occuring. Of course there are exceptions as there always are such as the election of the socialist government in spain. However this was more a knee jerk reaction to the 'al queda' attacks on spain than a real desire for socialism. I think that decision will be reversed the next time especially with the new legislation on gay marriage which can't be popular in a traditional catholic country like spain.

        When I say that there will be a return to producerism I mean that the power balance will shift from consumption back to production. Since the second world war and especially in the last 30 years the people who had control over and access to consumers had the real power. However I believe this is changing and that the power in this relationship is swinging back towards producers. We can already see this with oil and other commodities, and I dont believe it is a short term blip like the 1970s but a long term trend.


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## ClubMan (26 Apr 2005)

techman1 said:
			
		

> The world works in long term trends, Im not saying that Pope Benedicts election will cause a conservative era but it confirms that it is occuring. Of course there are exceptions as there always are such as the election of the socialist government in spain. However this was more a knee jerk reaction to the 'al queda' attacks on spain than a real desire for socialism. I think that decision will be reversed the next time especially with the new legislation on gay marriage which can't be popular in a traditional catholic country like spain.



Time will tell but legislation such as this could also indicate that countries such as _Spain _(and perhaps _Ireland_?) that have traditionally been described as _Catholic _are in actualy fact now less _Catholic _and more democratic, liberal, secular etc. What do you mean by the _"decision will be reversed the next time"_?



> When I say that there will be a return to producerism I mean that the power balance will shift from consumption back to production. Since the second world war and especially in the last 30 years the people who had control over and access to consumers had the real power. However I believe this is changing and that the power in this relationship is swinging back towards producers. We can already see this with oil and other commodities, and I dont believe it is a short term blip like the 1970s but a long term trend.



I still don't understand what you mean - especially this bit:



> in the last 30 years the people who had control over and access to consumers had the real power.



What people? What power? What consumers?


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## Unregistered (26 Apr 2005)

Far more important than the pope will be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Greenspan has facilitated an unsustainable epic bout of debt,consumption and global asset bubbles through his superlow interest rate policy. He is due to resign in Jan  06. Whether the next Chap(and it will be a chap) can keep all the ball in the air remains to be seen.


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## techman1 (26 Apr 2005)

I still don't understand what you mean - especially this bit:

Quote:
in the last 30 years the people who had control over and access to consumers had the real power.  


What people? What power? What consumers? 

What I am talking about is long term trends, the era from the nineteenth century to the early twentieth century was largely an era of producerism. What ever was produced be it food, machinery, appliances there was a huge demand for. This was because there was a shortage of food, machinery etc in all western countries. Demand was rising faster than producers could meet it so producers were in a very powerful position. However after the second world war the trend changed because of the big advance in technology. Production was now rising much faster than consumption because of technology. Also a large part of the world was now under communism such as China and the USSR, so the number of consumers was limited to that in the west who had already had their living standards raised. This put producers at a huge disadvantage and so the price of food and appliances and their margins have steadily been eroded. Therefore the big winners during this period were brands, advertising, retailers etc because they had direct access to the relatively limited number of consumers.

         However now that China has opened up there are a potential extra 1 billion consumers in the world but the ability of producers to supply these consumers is now limited. Agricultural production has now passed its peak (it peaked in 1985 and per capita wheat production has been falling ever since). Also the ability to supply it with other commodities is also restricted by nature. So therefore we are now entering another producerist era simply because the capacity to produce is restricted by both technology and nature but the number of consumers is ever increasing just like it was in the nineteenth century. This will result in conservative economics in order to reduce demand by tightening up the money supply or reducing its purchasing power. So branding ,advertising etc will become irrelavant.


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## Purple (27 Apr 2005)

Very interesting points techman1. I don't know if I can add anything to your posts but they are certainly thought provoking. I think it is interesting that many of the hi tech industries are turning into commodity industries. The price of your PC of server disk drive has more to do with the price of aluminium and nickel plating than the technology that developed it. The same is starting to apply to PCs; the cost of stainless steel sheet is cutting margins as much as the price of chips and PCB's. The result is a tiny margin for the PC maker. In the case of the disk drive industry a world wide shortage cannot be plugged because the tiny margin means that even for a big increase in production the cost of the capital investment is not economical.


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## techman2 (23 May 2005)

It will be interesting to see how events unfold in Germany with the Christian Democrats defeating the Social democrats (Chancellor Gerhard Schroeders party) in Germany's most populous state. Schroeder has now called an early general election.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4571465.stm

Remember he only scraped in in 2002 because he promised a substantial aid package for people devastated by flooding in Southern Germany. If the Christian Democrats succeed in ousting Schroeder it will be another confirmation of the rise of conservatism in Europe. The Tory party in Britain are also lucky not to have been elected in Britain this time as Britain now appears to be heading into troubled waters therefore next time the british will be hungry for change. Watch this space


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