# Paddy Power's predictions for the election



## Brendan Burgess (14 Jan 2020)

Interesting to see how they change over the three weeks of the campaign


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## cremeegg (15 Jan 2020)

I think the most useful betting predictions are for number of seats.

Power is giving

FF 51. FG 48. SF 18. Lab 9. Green 9 

Those are based on the central number for betting rounded down. Some one else can explain exactly what the numbers are, but in essence they are seat numbers.

A big gap there between this and FF numbers as forecast by Ivan Yates.


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## Brendan Burgess (17 Jan 2020)

I would have thought that the most important thing is the identity of the next Taoiseach.

In only a few days Micheál Martin has become even shorter odds to become Taoiseach.


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## cremeegg (17 Jan 2020)

The issue of the identity of the next Taoiseach is of course an important matter, but as it's either Martin or Varadkar with Martin the more likely, that's not very exciting.

The interesting question is how could Martin muster the votes. Your first post above suggests the most likely govt as a FF/SD/Lab/Green coalition. I cannot see that combination getting a majority.

Numerically either FF or FG with SF would be in a strong position, but I don't see either FF or FG backing down on their commitment to not go into govt with SF. Maybe after another election, but not this time.

That leaves us with another confidence and supply arrangement between FF and FG, with FF more likely to be the senior partner this time.


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## Brendan Burgess (17 Jan 2020)

cremeegg said:


> it's either Martin or Varadkar with Martin the more likely, that's not very exciting.



Agreed it's not exciting. But it will determine the shape of the next government.

Brendan


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## odyssey06 (17 Jan 2020)

Even with a confidence and supply agreement, I think FF might need a 5-10 seat junior partner in government for stability just as FG needed Independence Alliance votes. Labour or Greens most likely. Unless FF get 60 and FG 50, then FF on their own with FG abstaining have enough to command a majority.


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## Brendan Burgess (19 Jan 2020)

A Sunday Times poll gives FF a 12 point lead, and Paddy Power have cut the odds dramatically.


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## Duke of Marmalade (19 Jan 2020)

Yep,  and the over 50 seats at 5/6 has become 57 seats, I flagged that one in another thread but was too slow to get a piece of it myself.  From past experience I would probably have found that PP had very little appetite for the bet,  he tends to see these as marketing gimmicks and makes sure he doesn't get too burned.
Anyway, Leo seems for the chop and Ireland's newly acquired reputation for being the most enlightened electorate on the planet will take a knock. After all Leo was never actually chosen by the people to be Taoiseach.


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## joe sod (19 Jan 2020)

Yea, the violent gang killings recently highlight the failures on law and order. Also the posing at the 40 foot for the Christmas swim and then  travelling to India for holiday is bad optics so close to election. Of course he is entitled to a private life but that's not how Irish politics works. The electorate can be very bitchy


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## Duke of Marmalade (19 Jan 2020)

I think the poll was taken during that B&T controversy.  They surely shot themselves in the foot there.


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## Duke of Marmalade (21 Jan 2020)

Latest poll has PP reversing course.  FF 5/6 more that 53 seats.  This is a hard one to call.


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## Brendan Burgess (23 Jan 2020)

The odds on Micheal Martin being Taoiseach are shortening i.e. it's getting even more likely.



I thought that they both did OK last night.  The media is making much of the drugs question, but I think that Irish people know that many, most, students smoke spamspamspam?   

Or was he just targeting the Ming Flanagan vote? 

Brendan


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## TarfHead (23 Jan 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> The media is making much ..



I think these debates engage the media far more than they do the electorate.  In my home, with 3 voters, we're interested in the election, the constituency candidates, the questions to ask canvassers, but have zero interest in watching politicians bicker at and eyeroll each other.  More heat than light.


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## josh8267 (23 Jan 2020)

Or was he just targeting the Ming Flanagan vote?

No he was just trying to get the pension Issue off the front pages? I suspect  FG and SF will be part of the new Rainbow Government,
John Brution  ruled out going into Government With the Democratic left after the General election, only to find himself a few months later forming a Government  without an election,
Some say it was the best Government Ireland ever had,
FF had 65 seats
FG had 47
Lab had 32
DL had 6
PD  had 9
Others 7
FG formed a Government even though it had 18 seats less than FF,
Leo may be telling Michael to put that in your pipe and smoke it,


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## Brendan Burgess (23 Jan 2020)

TarfHead said:


> I think these debates engage the media far more than they do the electorate.



Good point which applies to a lot of issues. 

Brendan


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## Leper (24 Jan 2020)

Our vote is in Cork South Central (4 seater and almost a foregone conclusion this time - 3 sitting TD's to be reelected Martin, McGrath, Coveney with the 4th P O'Laoghaire SF trying to fight off the Greens and the other FG contestant Jerry Buttimer. I stopped off in Paddy Power's and saw that the Jerry Buttimer  is 9/2 against getting elected. I thought that good value and shoved my tenner fun bet on him. Mrs Lep bought into it too and gambled another tenner. We figure that SF and Greens would cost each other votes with FG to favourably pick up transfers. 

Other suggestions in any constituency welcomed.


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## Purple (24 Jan 2020)

The next leader of this country will be from Cork and the one following that will probably be from Cork as well. 
The alternative is a party with an Irish puppet leader which is run from the UK.

What's with all the foreigners running our country?


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## josh8267 (24 Jan 2020)

Purple said:


> The next leader of this country will be from Cork and the one following that will probably be from Cork as well.
> The alternative is a party with an Irish puppet leader which is run from the UK.
> 
> What's with all the foreigners running our country?


 Now Now What about the poster who a few years ago used to post he was born in the UK now saying he was born in Ireland, , 
I would say born in UK , 
Should feel at home under Mary loo,


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## Purple (24 Jan 2020)

josh8267 said:


> Now Now What about the poster who a few years ago used to post he was born in the UK now saying he was born in Ireland, ,
> I would say born in UK ,
> Should feel at home under Mary loo,


Wasn't Mary born in Dublin? Mind you what's  she got to do with a conversation about the leadership of the Shinners.


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## josh8267 (24 Jan 2020)

Purple said:


> Wasn't Mary born in Dublin? Mind you what's  she got to do with a conversation about the leadership of the Shinners.


Why are you trying so hard  to make Mary Lou fit in when she was born to stand out,
If she can bring the pension fiasco back to the front pages a few days before polling ,not sure she has got what it takes to do so lots on hear will jet burned,


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## josh8267 (24 Jan 2020)

Leper said:


> Our vote is in Cork South Central (4 seater and almost a foregone conclusion this time - 3 sitting TD's to be reelected Martin, McGrath, Coveney with the 4th P O'Laoghaire SF trying to fight off the Greens and the other FG contestant Jerry Buttimer. I stopped off in Paddy Power's and saw that the Jerry Buttimer  is 9/2 against getting elected. I thought that good value and shoved my tenner fun bet on him. Mrs Lep bought into it too and gambled another tenner. We figure that SF and Greens would cost each other votes with FG to favourably pick up transfers.
> 
> Other suggestions in any constituency welcomed.


Mrs lep who is good with money now has to give her no one vote to FG along  with leper to save there 20 euro,
You should never bet in your own constituency,


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## Leper (24 Jan 2020)

josh8267 said:


> Mrs lep who is good with money now has to give her no one vote to FG along  with leper to save there 20 euro,
> You should never bet in your own constituency,


No she doesn't. Both bets were for fun and to make a few easy bob. The first three past the post in Cork South Central is a given. The fourth (our friendly bet aforementioned) could go to one of another three. It will be close. I know Cork South Central like the Vietcong knew tunnels.


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## josh8267 (25 Jan 2020)

I am well aware you seen at first hand how our political system works just nipping under the skin so to speak,
Back to the Betting It something like the Pension Fiasco surfaced in the last days of the general election would it have any affect down your side of the wood,
I suspect down my side of the wood it would affect the main political parties, when it comes to the last seat there are a few banana skins around  you know,


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## Brendan Burgess (26 Jan 2020)

The latest SBP poll shows
FF 26%
FG 23%
SF 19% 

With two weeks to go before the election, surely that is not that big a gap between FF and FG? 

Not to justify making Micheál Martin hot favourite to be Taoiseach and Varadkar an outsider. 

1) There is a margin of error in the poll
2) Even if the poll is accurate, people might change their minds over the next two weeks. 

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (26 Jan 2020)

I must have it wrong, The odds have lengthened again.


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Jan 2020)

I see Buttimer is now 8/1.   Worth a small flutter ?


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## Brendan Burgess (29 Jan 2020)

Daddy Ireland said:


> I see Buttimer is now 8/1. Worth a small flutter ?



I wonder if you have some good insight into a particular constituency e.g. access to one of the parties' private constituency polls, would you have an edge over Paddy Power? 

But even if you do, I doubt that they would take a material bet.

Brendan


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## Daddy Ireland (29 Jan 2020)

Leper seemed keen at 9/2.  Knows the ground well.  Fun bet only of course.


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## josh8267 (29 Jan 2020)

Getting the feeling the people are tilting to a FG/SF government, expecting them to come close to enough seats,
FF making promising left right and Center private polls must not be looking good for them,FF appear to be rattled,


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## Brendan Burgess (30 Jan 2020)

Paddy Power has changed the odds on Micheál Martin from 1/8 to 1/9 while leaving Leo at 9/2.   Mary Lou McDonald is now 16/1 to be Taoiseach.


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## Leper (30 Jan 2020)

Daddy Ireland said:


> I see Buttimer is now 8/1.   Worth a small flutter ?



I backed him @ 9/2. 's not good value now. He's gone out to 8/1 so next week's fun tenner will go on him too.


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## josh8267 (30 Jan 2020)

Leper said:


> I backed him @ 9/2. 's not good value now. He's gone out to 8/1 so next week's fun tenner will go on him too.


Laper
Take a look at the 1948 General election results 13 Dail 4 of feb 1948 in cork,
Dev  was at the same thing Michael is at now ,trying to stop the rise of Clann na Poblachta  threatened the power of the main Parties see how that worked out for them back then,
World war 2 over things beginning to get better people felt they were not getting a fair share, Rural Ireland uneasy about how the main political parties were treating them,
Have a very good look at the TDs from the splinter parties getting Elected with very low % of the vote,
FF carved up the country in 3 seat constituency's to there advantage from 15 to 22,  people including lots of his supporters decide it was time to send them a message ,
After the election,
The First Inter Party Government Came to Power
Its worth looking at how people voted back then in your constituency to make sure change came about,
Look at the support for smaller parties
Look how people gave smaller party candidates transfers putting them ahead of the main parties for last seats,

Just for the record the General election to elect the  last Candidate to the 13 Dail was held on the 8 of feb 1948 in Carlow/Kilkenny,

I watched  the leaders Debate the other tonight , I focused more on how the audience responded to the main parties and how much respect they had for them not much I would say,


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## Leper (30 Jan 2020)

Cork South Central is about as predictable as sunshine in Spain with three of the four seats to be filled with Coveney, Martin and Mc Grath each of whom could share the role of Taoiseach over the next five years. It's the 4th seat that could cause problems. Will SF retain? Will the Greens come through? Or will Buttimer FG recover his seat?

I'm betting that the sitting SF candidate and the Green party will get in each others way and cause Buttimer to be elected. Buttimer lost out last time but subsequently was elected to the Senate. It's only a hunch, but I think if there is a surprise here it will be him. Odds of 8/1 in a six horse rate with Coveney's transfers don't appear bad to me. 

I looked at some previous election results in Cork city. Vote Management was hardly ever a problem to the main parties. But, we're in a different era now where homelessness is more visible, the economy perceived as king, age of retirement under scrutiny, NI a matter of less concern, Immigration, Full Employment, Brexit, Emigration. I think the average Cork Voter will choose conservatively while the Celtic Jersey Bar Stool Republicans and Green Brigades will get in each other's way. We'll know for sure over the next fortnight.


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## josh8267 (30 Jan 2020)

LAB 1
FG 2
SF 3
Greens4
PBP 5
SD 6
FF 7
Even though I have Greens at NO 4 They well be getting my no 1 vote ,
FF have peaked
smaller parties are going to get a lot more seats than people on hear think, All did as well if not better than FF


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## Brendan Burgess (31 Jan 2020)

The odds are lengthening on Micheál Martin but he is still the hot favourite to be Taoiseach.


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## Leper (31 Jan 2020)

Unless you're betting high stakes there is no point taking odds of 1/7.

An interesting punt would be Mary Lou McDonald for Tánaiste @ 5/1.


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## Brendan Burgess (31 Jan 2020)

Boyle sports is about the same


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## josh8267 (31 Jan 2020)

Leper said:


> Unless you're betting high stakes there is no point taking odds of 1/7.
> 
> An interesting punt would be Mary Lou McDonald for Tánaiste @ 5/1.


Anyone notice as the start of the debate Leo said he would not go into power with SF,
Later he said the reason he would not go into power with SF not because of there past but because of there promises,
Leo is saying in a round about way if they can agree policies in with SF he goes,
Leo is fragmenting the Sf transfers away from FF,and back to FG,
FG and SF done a very good job in stopping FF rising anymore in the poles and fragmenting there transfers,
How about FG/SF/LAB having enough votes to form a Government,


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## Leper (31 Jan 2020)

Last night an additional flyer from FG's  Simon Coveney came through my letterbox. The letter had a golden harp on top with a picture of himself on the top left hand corner. He asked for our No. 1 Vote to ensure his re-election. Simon Coveney is guaranteed his re-election. He didn't mention his running mate Jerry Buttimer (8/1 at Paddy Power). I read into this that Buttimer is now jettisoned by FG. Therefore, I am now suggesting not to take Buttimer's chance seriously and I hope I'm wrong.


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## Brendan Burgess (1 Feb 2020)

If I were the head of a party, I would give my top TDs instructions that their efforts to secure extra seats and to cooperate with other candidates would be big factors in the decision to give them a cabinet seat. 

Brendan


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## josh8267 (1 Feb 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> If I were the head of a party, I would give my top TDs instructions that their efforts to secure extra seats and to cooperate with other candidates would be big factors in the decision to give them a cabinet seat.
> 
> Brendan


Vote management in the past elections seen Ministers lose there own seat at the expense of electing a parish pump type TDs from there own party in there place,
I think it already happened to Simon late Father,
That election was held in February,
Elections held in February several went wrong for the party calling them,


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## josh8267 (1 Feb 2020)

Leper said:


> Last night an additional flyer from FG's  Simon Coveney came through my letterbox. The letter had a golden harp on top with a picture of himself on the top left hand corner. He asked for our No. 1 Vote to ensure his re-election. Simon Coveney is guaranteed his re-election. He didn't mention his running mate Jerry Buttimer (8/1 at Paddy Power). I read into this that Buttimer is now jettisoned by FG. Therefore, I am now suggesting not to take Buttimer's chance seriously and I hope I'm wrong.


Last Election2016
Both FF TDs got elected on first count Simon had to wait until the 11 count same count as SF count 11
So FG and SF got elected on Count 11,
If he splits the FG vote with Buttimer and people like Lep thing Simon is safe we could have 1 TD for FG the question is will it be Buttimer or Coveney,

Buttimer  for FG And Bogue for the Green are top of the ballot paper Coveney is lower down, FG/GP types could very easily mark 1 on the highest up on the ballot paper once you marked NO1 there is no going back,


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## Brendan Burgess (2 Feb 2020)

Mary Lou McDonald is now a potential Taoiseach.


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## josh8267 (2 Feb 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Mary Lou McDonald is now a potential Taoiseach.
> 
> View attachment 4255


SF are running ,42 candidates ,so SF ,I suspect if they ran more the would not be as high in the polls,
I suspected FG private polls are telling them the are slipping back,
I think you missed what Leper posted Yesterday,
It was offical FG Poster Drop coming from Dublin not from Cork or Simon Coveney ,
It was Coming from the Leader of FG,


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## Duke of Marmalade (2 Feb 2020)

Betting on Tanaiste is really fascinating.  Eamon Ryan is Even money favourite with Mary Lou very close behind at 5/4, the likes of Simon Coveney 25/1.  This doesn't make sense.  FF/SF coalition is 11/2 and FG/SF is 18/1, and surely these are the only possible ways Mary Lou can be Tan.


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## josh8267 (2 Feb 2020)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Betting on Tanaiste is really fascinating.  Eamon Ryan is Even money favourite with Mary Lou very close behind at 5/4, the likes of Simon Coveney 25/1.  This doesn't make sense.  FF/SF coalition is 11/2 and FG/SF is 18/1, and surely these are the only possible ways Mary Lou can be Tan.


are they building in the prospect Simon might get caught out by the green party and not get elected a TD,


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## Brendan Burgess (2 Feb 2020)

Here are the odds for the most likely next governments


FF/SF11/2Mary LouFF/Green6/1 Eamon RyanFF/Green/Independents6/1Eamon RyanFF/SF/Green8/1Mary LouFF/SF/Independents10/1Mary LouFF Minority16/1NeitherFF/FG16/1Neither 

So it probably is most likely to be Eamon Ryan with Mary Lou second favourite. 

Brendan


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## cremeegg (2 Feb 2020)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Betting on Tanaiste is really fascinating.  Eamon Ryan is Even money favourite with Mary Lou very close behind at 5/4, the likes of Simon Coveney 25/1.  This doesn't make sense.  FF/SF coalition is 11/2 and FG/SF is 18/1, and surely these are the only possible ways Mary Lou can be Tan.



So a FF/SF coalition is 11/2 and a FG/SF collation 18/1 while Mary Lou for Táiniste is 5/4.

One of these is seriously out of line. In my opinion the Táiniste odds are reasonable. The coalition odds are off whack.


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Feb 2020)

I am not sure that the coalition odds are off whack. 

If, for example, you back FF/SF at 11/2 , you lose if the actual coalition is FF/SF/Green 

There is no actual bet: "SF to be in coalition" which would have fairly low odds.

So Mary Lou McDonald to be Tánaiste is a surrogate bet for "SF to be in coalition". 

Brendan


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## Duke of Marmalade (3 Feb 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> I am not sure that the coalition odds are off whack.
> 
> If, for example, you back FF/SF at 11/2 , you lose if the actual coalition is FF/SF/Green
> 
> ...


I take your point though I notice PP has pushed Mary Lou out to 3/1 for Tan which seems a bit more consistent.  And working on our hypothesis, I take that to be equivalent to 3/1 against SF being in Government.  These gimmicky markets have big margins built in by the bookies so in reality probably 5/1 that outcome - still a frightening prospect!


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## Leper (3 Feb 2020)

Boyle Sports have Jerry Buttimer @ 9/1 to take the 4th seat in Cork South Central. I know I said I wouldn't take it having already backed him @ 9/2, but I'm including Jerry Buttimer in this weeks fun bet too.


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## Brendan Burgess (5 Feb 2020)

Paddy Power continue to tighten the odds on Micheal Martin


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## Ceist Beag (5 Feb 2020)

Interesting that. I would have thought FF were losing ground of late and given the stance MM is taking on any possible coalition with SF you would have thought that his odds would be lessening, not increasing. Obviously they are basing it on the fact that FG are losing even more ground and given that it will still be one of the two, he's a clear favourite in their eyes. I'm not so sure. I think if FF fail to achieve seats in the 55+ range they will be less likely to form a coalition unless it includes SF - and if that happens then MM may need to stand aside if he doesn't want to accept such a coalition.


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## Brendan Burgess (5 Feb 2020)

Ceist.

Paddy Power is not listening to you.




It seems that the arithmetic is that only FF can form a government. 

It's interesting that they are not giving odds for any  other FF candidates for Taoiseach.  Based on your reasoning, Michael McGrath is a much more likely next Taoiseach than Eamon Ryan. 

Brendan


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## Duke of Marmalade (5 Feb 2020)

Brendan Burgess said:


> Ceist.
> 
> Paddy Power is not listening to you.
> 
> ...


Eamon Ryan?
There are inconsistencies here.  FF/SF coalition is 7/2,  FF/SF/Ind is 12/1 as is FF/SF/Green and there are probably other FF/SF/X combinations.  I can't see MM being Teashop of any government including SF.  According to these odds the combined odds of a FF/SF/X coalition is about 2/1 and for consistency MM should not be any shorter than 1/2 to be Teashop.  Or echoing your point Michael McGrath et al should be in the running.
Okay, PP has his margins; all the same 1/12 is ridiculously out of kilter with the odds on FF/SF/X but I believe is it these latter are wrong - in short there will not be a FF/SF/X coalition IMHO.


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## Ceist Beag (6 Feb 2020)

Yes that must be how PP is reading it. FF to lead the next government without any coalition with SF. So either PP think FF will achieve close to 60 seats and form a majority government with 2 from SDs, Labour and Greens and maybe a few other independents, or else they expect that they will lead a minority government with FG playing the role of confidence and supply partner. The latter seems a much riskier bet so my reading of it is that PP think FF will win more than 55 seats.


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## josh8267 (6 Feb 2020)

Ceist Beag said:


> Yes that must be how PP is reading it. FF to lead the next government without any coalition with SF. So either PP think FF will achieve close to 60 seats and form a majority government with 2 from SDs, Labour and Greens and maybe a few other independents, or else they expect that they will lead a minority government with FG playing the role of confidence and supply partner. The latter seems a much riskier bet so my reading of it is that PP think FF will win more than 55 seats.


Not so sure they will hit fifty,
On the ground FF are more interested in holding existing seats than taking a chance on gaining an extra seat by splitting the ff vote,

I had FF calling to my door early days of the General election looking for my no 1 vote  aimed at  Gaining a 2nd seat,They have being around again putting The sitting TDs posters in letter boxes  written with a black marker is a note saying vote no1 for existing TD ,

When  I look at all the names that will appear on the local ballot paper there TD lives the longest from my home, Lets just say you would need to set him on fire to get him to move he is so long there,
Is the above going on in other parts of Ireland,I don't think he is going to get elected this time,


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## Brendan Burgess (6 Feb 2020)

The odds on Micheál are getting shorter and shorter. I suppose as the elections comes closer there is less chance for a mishap.


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## Brendan Burgess (7 Feb 2020)

I don't expect Leo Varadkar to be the next Taoiseach,but 14/1 seems like good odds.

Brendan


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## Brendan Burgess (8 Feb 2020)

Late on election day, this is what Paddy Power is saying 


1st PrefsSeatsFianna Fail26.55%54Fine Gael22.55%35SF21.54%28


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## Brendan Burgess (9 Feb 2020)

Big changes in the odds this morning, although the general direction is the same: 

FF seats: 49
FG seats: 38
SF seats: 34

Micheál Martin is down from 1/25 to 1/6 to become Taoiseach. 



Brendan Burgess said:


> I don't expect Leo Varadkar to be the next Taoiseach,but 14/1 seems like good odds.


 
He is now 5/1.


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## Duke of Marmalade (9 Feb 2020)

Wonkish point on margin of error.
The moe on the EP is 1.3%.
That means that for a 50% vote there is 95% confidence that the true result is between 48.7% and 51.3%.
But for a 22% vote the 95% confidence is between 21.5% and 22.5%.  RTÉ keep getting this wrong.


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## WolfeTone (9 Feb 2020)

Im offering Micheál Martin as next Taoiseach at 1.28 on Betfair exchange if anyone is interested?


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## WolfeTone (9 Feb 2020)

Upped my bet to 1.30.
Considering there are only two viable options at present, this is surely a generous and tempting offer?


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## Duke of Marmalade (9 Feb 2020)

UCD guy on RTE predicting FF from 39-46 seats.  PP betting 5/6 under 46.5 so that looks a good bet.


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## Ceist Beag (9 Feb 2020)

FF may only get 41 seats - that's some fall from predictions as recently as a few days ago! I fail to see how MM is still such low odds for Taoiseach, this has been a failed election from their point of view, there can be no escaping that at this stage.


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## WolfeTone (9 Feb 2020)

MM on RTE1 right now, quite clearly leaving the door open for coalition with SF.


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## Duke of Marmalade (9 Feb 2020)

Just placed an interest bet of £20 at 7/2 a SF/FF coalition


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## Ceist Beag (11 Feb 2020)

What is the PP policy on the next Taoiseach bet if it is a rotating Taoiseach? Do they pay out 50% of the win?


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## Duke of Marmalade (11 Feb 2020)

Ceist Beag said:


> What is the PP policy on the next Taoiseach bet if it is a rotating Taoiseach? Do they pay out 50% of the win?


I guess they will pay first past the post i.e.  first to be on the merry go round.


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## Brendan Burgess (11 Feb 2020)

I assume that the next Taoiseach will be the next person to occupy the post. 

This is what Betfair says: 

_ For the avoidance of doubt, this market will be settled on the candidate for Taoiseach that is nominated by a simple majority of Dáil Éireann.

In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. If there is any change to the established ministerial role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. _


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