# What do AAMers think WILL happen in the coming months



## Firefly

Forgetting the merits of different taxes & cut...What do poeple think will actually happen in the coming months? Do people think that we will default, be bailed out by the ECB Stabilisation fund, or the gentlement in the white coats, aka the IMF, will come in?

I think we'll have a tough budget to try and satisfy Europe, but sometime in Q1 we will run out of cash. I don't see the IMF coming in, but rather the EU Stabilisation fund being used. I think the conditions attached for this will mean savage government spending cuts - particularly in the PS numbers and pay rates, as well as reducing social welfare. Income taxes will also rise, but I think the EU knows that without a corp tax of 12.5% they will never get their money back so this will be left alone for now. 

Thoughts?


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## canicemcavoy

Tempted as I am to be optimistic, at every point my worst fears have come true so I'm feel I have to judge things by those. One problem is the fact that the governments and certain interests seem to be determined to keep us uncompetitive by artificially propping up the property and rental markets. Going on about the few pence involved in the minimum wage, when businesses are closing down due to insane rents, is missing the wood for the trees. The same with wages; the country would be far more competitive if house prices dropped but it looks like after the initial fall, we're now in for a Japanese-style prolonged agony of a long slow fall. It's funny how we hear a lot about the need for tough medicine, slashing pensions, etc, but property seems exempt from this tough medicine.


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## Sunny

Strong rumours this morning of a 3-4 year €80 billion EU/UK bailout to be decided over the weekend. Statement expected later in the G20. Bond prices and CDS spreads are tigthening. There are legs to this story. There is will be a EU/IMF programme introduced similar to what wa seen in Greece.


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## Chris

Here is what I think. I believe the comments made on Bloomberg about Ireland running out of money in 2 months is overly pessimistic, and that the governments' estimate of June next year is overly optimistic. I would imagine that by mid January the markets will have worked out how workable the budget cuts are and how realistic any assumptions about growth and interest payments will be. I don't think that the markets will gain any confidence, or at least not enough confidence to reduce the bond yield. Double digit yields are extremely likely, but even if they stay the same they are not at levels that can realisticly be borrowed at. I would say that by March or April the public accounts will be running dry, but this will be denied right up to the day that the announcement will be made that Ireland has to tap into the ECB stability fund.
I agree with you on the corporation tax, increasing this would be cuting off the hand that feeds the mouth. The ECB and IMF are clever enough to realise how many jobs here are reliant of foreign companies that will quickly leave if the tax were increased.
ECB and IMF will take over the finance department and make sweeping pay cuts and income tax increases, as well as reducitons in social welfare payments (the area of wages and SW ameks up 2/3 of the budget so this is the first place they will start). I don't think they will bother looking at scrapping departments or services, even though this would be a better aproach to reducing the public pay budget.

In summary:
- March/April Ireland will start looking for money from the ECB/IMF
- huge public paycuts
- pension cuts
- social welfare cuts (I think they will have a similar reaction to these as they had to Greece's account shenanigans)
- capital projects will all be scrapped or frozen
- corporation tax will be left alone


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## ccbkd

A bail-out of some description seems to be certain..it will be interesting to see how the powers that be present it to the public...I think a necessary illusion of some sort will be required to prevent the masses from panic! The situation is quiet serious and technically complex (you get the feeling that the taoiseach, finance minister and to a lesser extent the governor of the central bank do not really understand the markets and are in fear of them), therefore the ordinary joe is in a much more ignorant position, so expect emotionally potent over simplification to sell our rescue fund to the public in the coming month...ah hell just call it propaganda


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## Chris

canicemcavoy said:


> Tempted as I am to be optimistic, at every point my worst fears have come true so I'm feel I have to judge things by those. One problem is the fact that the governments and certain interests seem to be determined to keep us uncompetitive by artificially propping up the property and rental markets. Going on about the few pence involved in the minimum wage, when businesses are closing down due to insane rents, is missing the wood for the trees. The same with wages; the country would be far more competitive if house prices dropped but it looks like after the initial fall, we're now in for a Japanese-style prolonged agony of a long slow fall. It's funny how we hear a lot about the need for tough medicine, slashing pensions, etc, but property seems exempt from this tough medicine.



I agree with you on the wages and here is a comparison with the Great Depression (GD). During the GD there was monetary deflation (at first) as the US was on a gold standard. Ireland is also experiencing monetary deflation as it cannot create more money for itself (this is a very good thing). During the GD Hoover and FDR introduced and increased minimum wages (this was a very bad thing), while at the same time prices were plummeting due to the monetary deflation. The same is happening here in that the minimum wage seems to be a no-go area. As prices plummeted and wages stayed the same or went up during the GD, this resulted in more and more companies not being able profitably operate resulting in bankruptcies and huge unemployment. The same is happening here in Ireland now. FDR made many more desastruous decisions that made the depression "Great", but these were the very first mistakes.
I also agree that house prices are not falling as much as they should because there has not been a firesale of facant properties, including NAMA ones, and because reposessions have not really happened in any significant amount. But I think the minimum wage is more of a problem than the housing market.


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## Shawady

I think a bailout from the EU fund but it will not be done in one year. Probably something similar to what the government is actually proposing but the EU will say where the cuts will happen.
Further cuts in PS pay a certainty. Cuts in unemployment benefit, child benefit and the state penion also unavoidable.
Increased taxes and property tax.
I think they would increase corp tax even to 15 or 17.5%. I don't think big multi-nationals will suddenly pull out if a modest increase is applied.
Big cut to overseas aid also.


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## z107

I believe the EU hates our low corporation tax rate.
Ireland is effectively 'poaching' foreign company profits with it.

I don't see why the EU would want to protect this. In fact, I would suggest one of the conditions of the bailout would be to increase the corp tax rate, and let other countries have a slice of the action.


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## TLC

Just a question about the German Chancellors remarks - it was reported that Brian Cowan said the remarks were "unhelpful" & Brian Lenihan today said he welcomes the EU clarification.  Is it just a case of clarifying her remarks or what?  As Alice said thru the looking glass - Curiouser and curiouser!
Regarding what I think will happen is that we will all endure savage cuts - unemployment/childcare/pensions etc. & have a property tax/increased personal taxation/PS pay cuts.  People will probably accept them *IF* there is seen to be cuts from the top down - cut the number of TD's & perks that they have & abolish the Senate would be a start - but they probably won't do that as the government seems to be completely out of touch with the day to day reality of "ordinary" people trying to make ends meet.  So I suppose we'll all just have to eat cheese!!!


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## tiger

I expect:
- a tough budget in Dec.  Some back benchers may defect, but it will pass (FG will abstain if necessary).
- Bond auction in Jan-March time frame.  It will "succeed" but only because the ECB buy it all as they don't want us to enter the structural fund.
- Govt to fall some time in the first half of next year.
Over a longer term:
- although a GE will return a strong FG/Lab govt, they will be forced to have tough budgets.  As a result in 4-5 years time, FF will possibly be looking at a return to power.
- Bond holders won't get burned, but there will be some 'restructuring' of bond debt.
- No banker, developer or senior govt official will see the inside of a jail cell.


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## huskerdu

tiger said:


> I expect:
> - a tough budget in Dec.  Some back benchers may defect, but it will pass (FG will abstain if necessary).
> - Bond auction in Jan-March time frame.  It will "succeed" but only because the ECB buy it all as they don't want us to enter the structural fund.
> - Govt to fall some time in the first half of next year.
> Over a longer term:
> - although a GE will return a strong FG/Lab govt, they will be forced to have tough budgets.  As a result in 4-5 years time, FF will possibly be looking at a return to power.
> - Bond holders won't get burned, but there will be some 'restructuring' of bond debt.
> - No banker, developer or senior govt official will see the inside of a jail cell.



Good predictions. I agree.


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## Bcommercial

umop3p!sdn said:


> I believe the EU hates our low corporation tax rate.
> Ireland is effectively 'poaching' foreign company profits with it.
> 
> I don't see why the EU would want to protect this. In fact, I would suggest one of the conditions of the bailout would be to increase the corp tax rate, and let other countries have a slice of the action.



I agree. It's EU policy to harmonize these rates, and our very very low rate is the first target... no brainer! It will not be announced or presented as such, and will not immediately take effect either, but a secret deal will be done behind our backs to have it increased in the near future, and the gov will of course "strenuously deny" that any such conditions applied to the EU bailout...(ie business as usual lads, this is the same bunch of cretinous Irish politicians we're talking about here, nothing has changed!) Anyway, these Foreign Multi Nationals are NOT  here only because of our low Corp Tax (ie they could always set up in some other lower tax island in the middle of an ocean somewhere), but mainly because of the gateway to the EU we provide, and hence any other EU country will do the job just as well for them. The EU area wouldn't lose the FDI if our rates increase, but it would rather be another EU country's gain and as such it's immaterial to EU policy if we lose out on the deal....serve us right would be the view of many other EU countries I'd guess!


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## Ethan 1

Chris said:


> Here is what I think. I believe the comments made on Bloomberg about Ireland running out of money in 2 months is overly pessimistic, and that the governments' estimate of June next year is overly optimistic.


 
The Bloomberg view maybe closer to the truth than we think.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/cowen-denies-bid-for-european-rescue-package-481599.html

if you notice what was said

“We have funding up to mid-year... we don’t have to borrow any money in respect of the *sovereign debt*, the sovereign issues that affect the Government and running of the country,” he said.

My question is How are our banks being funded ? Since they are locked out of the bond markets too.


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## bogle

ethan 1 said:


> my question is how are our banks being funded ? Since they are locked out of the bond markets too.



The ECB


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## bluemac

personally I think the 80 billion will be given to us on the bases of covering the bank bail out.. not a country bail out, I think we will cut hard here anyway and dont think the IMF will be able to do that much more if they did come in.

Our exports are on the increase, as long as the rest of the world keeps improving we will be on our feet again sooner than you think because of the exports and multinationals... this doesnt mean that building or house prices will recover though.

I have decided its all too much gloom and doom so what if the ECB lend us 80 billion to cover the banks we need it and need to sort that out some how. yes we will be paying it off for years but we will anyway so better to get it from the ecb than the markets.. but if you forget about the banks for 1 second... things are not that bad compared to other countries.

The main thing we need is an election this will stabilize the markets.
and a state run business investment bank to sell off a few years down the line.
I know several companies who are export led that are doing very well and need to expand but no money from the banks to do it.


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## Chris

bluemac said:


> The main thing we need is an election this will stabilize the markets.
> and a state run business investment bank to sell off a few years down the line.
> I know several companies who are export led that are doing very well and need to expand but no money from the banks to do it.



If the state wasn't borrowing so much money, then there would be a lot more available for private enterprises. I agree that there are viable businesses that could make very good use of credit, certainly better use than the state. But I do not think that the state should get in any way involved in investment banking. The political elite have messed up enough without trying to dive into investmnet banking.


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## dockingtrade

What i think will happen is as i said in a different post, balied out by Feb or March. Which will result in massive cuts in PS & SW. Corp tax rises to 15%. Other EU countries will be bailed out, and as other countries do, the EU will start printing money devaluing the euro. With a devalued euro and costs gone way down it wont matter about or corp tax and we'll see some major FDI in the country and it all begins again.


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## onekeano

My gut would be that we will be cohabiting with our IMF / EU masters pretty soon and to be up front I would be one of those who would welcome the IMF in. This country is broken, not only financially but in terms of ethics / leadership and morailty. Politicians / trade unions / the clergy / bankers / developers etc etc have brought this country to a stage of paralysis where only the likes of the IMF can come in waving a big cheque and say "if you want the money then there are no sacred cows" and do what has to be done.

That said, our government is so inept that we will probably blow a huge opportunity that exists right now to extract a bailout at a fantastic rate as the big boys are frantically seeking to resolve the "Irish problem" to stop the contagion effect. Looks to me that if we had any real balls we could probably get a bailout for free right now http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AD28U20101114?pageNumber=2 but with the 2 Brian's negotiating for us well...

Roy


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## Chris

dockingtrade said:


> What i think will happen is as i said in a different post, balied out by Feb or March. Which will result in massive cuts in PS & SW. Corp tax rises to 15%. Other EU countries will be bailed out, and as other countries do, the EU will start printing money devaluing the euro. With a devalued euro and costs gone way down it wont matter about or corp tax and we'll see some major FDI in the country and it all begins again.



You're forgetting one important part, that is that if the ECB devalue, then the BoE and US Fed will also devalue some more. All major central banks are in downward spiral race to devalue their currencies. Problem for Ireland would be the huge burden of costs of goods that have to be imported, oil being the main one.


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## Complainer

onekeano said:


> My gut would be that we will be cohabiting with our IMF / EU masters pretty soon and to be up front I would be one of those who would welcome the IMF in. This country is broken, not only financially but in terms of ethics / leadership and morailty. Politicians / trade unions / the clergy / bankers / developers etc etc have brought this country to a stage of paralysis where only the likes of the IMF can come in waving a big cheque and say "if you want the money then there are no sacred cows" and do what has to be done.


The IMF have their own sacred cows. They will eliminate public services. They will privatise everything that moves. You can expect to be paying directly for everything - health services, education, roads, water etc etc. They will eliminate local industry and encourage imports of everything. Have a look at their track record in South America.


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## jhegarty

I think the current bond market rates are a bubble that will fall back "normal" (aka high) rates after the budget.

Government will get the budget through , but will fall before the spring.


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## Firefly

Complainer said:


> The IMF have their own sacred cows. They will eliminate public services. They will privatise everything that moves. You can expect to be paying directly for everything - health services, education, roads, water etc etc. They will eliminate local industry and encourage imports of everything. Have a look at their track record in South America.



Linky?


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## Sunny

Complainer said:


> The IMF have their own sacred cows. They will eliminate public services. They will privatise everything that moves. You can expect to be paying directly for everything - health services, education, roads, water etc etc. They will eliminate local industry and encourage imports of everything. Have a look at their track record in South America.


 
Thats simply scare mongering. Where is the example of the IMF doing all those things? Especially the bit about eliminating local industry.


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## Complainer

Firefly said:


> Linky?





Sunny said:


> Thats simply scare mongering. Where is the example of the IMF doing all those things? Especially the bit about eliminating local industry.


Try http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393065073/ref=cm_li_v_cr_self?tag=linkedin-20 or http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine for a starting point


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## annR

I read that Shock Doctrine book .  . . .very scary stuff.


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## Sunny

Complainer said:


> Try http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393065073/ref=cm_li_v_cr_self?tag=linkedin-20 or http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine for a starting point


 
Seriously? Your sources for such a sweeping and incorrect statement are some anti globalisation and free market books? I am not wasting my time on socialist drival. 

Show me proper impartial academic research on the IMF (there is plenty) and show me where they have done the things that you have said.


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## Complainer

Sunny said:


> Seriously? Your sources for such a sweeping and incorrect statement are some anti globalisation and free market books? I am not wasting my time on socialist drival.
> 
> Show me proper impartial academic research on the IMF (there is plenty) and show me where they have done the things that you have said.



At a guess, if you rule out everything that you call 'socialist drivel', then you will only find nice things said about the IMF. I guess you only want to hear the nice things - right?


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## Towger

Don't worry Sunny.
We all know the IMF/EU will just tell the goverment how much to cut/raise and goverment will have to decide on where/what to cut/tax. The goverment will just be forced to make the decisions they have been putting off.


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## Sunny

Complainer said:


> At a guess, if you rule out everything that you call 'socialist drivel', then you will only find nice things said about the IMF. I guess you only want to hear the nice things - right?


 
No I want to read something without a political angle. There are plenty of proper research papers written about the IMF without having to read ideological driven rubbish.

Again, where have the IMF privatised everything that moved, elimated public services and destroyed local industry?


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## Sunny

Towger said:


> Don't worry Sunny.
> We all know the IMF/EU will just tell the goverment how much to cut/raise and goverment will have to decide on where/what to cut/tax. The goverment will just be forced to make the decisions they have been putting off.


 
That's pretty much it. The IMF don't come and destroy countries. The fact that the IMF are there is because the Country ruined itself. All the IMF do is get the Country back on a sustainable path. Yes there is pain involved but lets keep the scare mongering out of it.


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## Howitzer

Complainer said:


> At a guess, if you rule out everything that you call 'socialist drivel', then you will only find nice things said about the IMF. I guess you only want to hear the nice things - right?


In fairness, Naomi Klein - that's your source?

At the very least make it a Chomsky reference.


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## Firefly

Complainer said:


> Try http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393065073/ref=cm_li_v_cr_self?tag=linkedin-20 or http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine for a starting point



Any links to an article rather than a book? Oh, and preferably something fact based rather that opinion based. I'm assuming this won't be a problem for someone who constantly demands such references when sweeping statements are made.


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## AndrewR

> My gut would be that we will be cohabiting with our IMF / EU masters pretty soon and to be up front I would be one of those who would welcome the IMF in. This country is broken, not only financially but in terms of ethics / leadership and morailty. Politicians / trade unions / the clergy / bankers / developers etc etc have brought this country to a stage of paralysis where only the likes of the IMF can come in waving a big cheque and say "if you want the money then there are no sacred cows" and do what has to be done.
> 
> That said, our government is so inept that we will probably blow a huge opportunity that exists right now to extract a bailout at a fantastic rate as the big boys are frantically seeking to resolve the "Irish problem" to stop the contagion effect.
> Roy


+1 Couldn't agree with you more


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## Birroc

jhegarty said:


> Government will get the budget through , but we will fall before the spring.


 
we?


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## Purple

AndrewR said:


> +1 Couldn't agree with you more



++1

It would be nice if they could fix the Department of finance as well as those at the top are not up to the job. The same can be said for Justice and most of the other departments but that's not the IMF's remit.


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## Purple

Firefly said:


> Any links to an article rather than a book? Oh, and preferably something fact based rather that opinion based. I'm assuming this won't be a problem for someone who constantly demands such references when sweeping statements are made.


And something that's been written in the last 5 years as the IMF isn't the same animal it was in the 80's.


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## Complainer

Firefly said:


> Any links to an article rather than a book? Oh, and preferably something fact based rather that opinion based. I'm assuming this won't be a problem for someone who constantly demands such references when sweeping statements are made.


I'm pretty sure that I've never asked somebody for 'an article rather than a book'. I'm really not that motivated to go digging round for articles for you, only to find them dismissed because you don't like what they're saying.



Howitzer said:


> At the very least make it a Chomsky reference.


Never read him, tbh. But there was another reference there too - not just Klein.


Sunny said:


> No I want to read something without a political angle.


Anything that involves the IMF is inherently political. They come in with an extreme-right 'Chigaco School' political approach.


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## Sunny

Complainer said:


> Anything that involves the IMF is inherently political. They come in with an extreme-right 'Chigaco School' political approach.


 
Again, there is plenty of independent research that has looked at IMF interventions in various Countries. Show me where they have gone in with an extreme right wing agenda and did the things you are accusing them of. Hungary, Iceland, Latvia, Argentina and Greece are recent examples of IMF activity. Start with there if you like. Are you saying those countries no longer have public services or local industry?


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## Sunny

As an example, here is the letter of intent between Latvia and the IMF. Not the best example of an extreme-right 'Chicago School' political approach I have ever seen.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/loi/2010/lva/070510.pdf

I should point out that I am not the biggest fan of the IMF. Reminds me a bit too much of the UN!


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## Bcommercial

It's also a very sad indictment of the Irish people and our democratic process that we have allowed in the past, continue to allow at present and in all probability into the future, such a shower of gombeenmen Irish politicians to run our affairs, and that we as a nation are incapable of standing up and booting them out, and need to go crying to the IMF to help "fix" us.


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## jhegarty

Birroc said:


> we?




extra word, shouldn't have been there.


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## Complainer

Sunny said:


> As an example, here is the letter of intent between Latvia and the IMF. Not the best example of an extreme-right 'Chicago School' political approach I have ever seen.
> 
> http://www.imf.org/external/np/loi/2010/lva/070510.pdf
> 
> I should point out that I am not the biggest fan of the IMF. Reminds me a bit too much of the UN!


Here's a mad idea. If you want to see critical analysis of the IMF, try looking on websites other than the IMF's own website. For example;


http://www.cepr.net/index.php/press-releases/press-releases/imf-conditions-harmful/
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publi...croeconomic-policies-and-the-world-recession/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-lewis/the-imf-destroys-iceland_b_276193.html


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## Firefly

Complainer said:


> I'm pretty sure that I've never asked somebody for 'an article rather than a book'.



You made pretty big generalisations about the IMF. If you do insist on providing a whole books as a reference, (left leaning as they are), would it be too much to ask for specific references in it?



Complainer said:


> I'm really not that motivated to go digging round for articles for you, only to find them dismissed because you don't like what they're saying.



This is fantastic stuff altogether and something other posters should link to whenever you ask for a reference in the future. Also, please point me to any article you have ever referenced (if your bothered to go digging for them) where I have dismissed it?





Complainer said:


> Anything that involves the IMF is inherently political. They come in with an extreme-right 'Chigaco School' political approach.



Linky?


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## Sunny

Complainer said:


> Here's a mad idea. If you want to see critical analysis of the IMF, try looking on websites other than the IMF's own website. For example;
> 
> 
> http://www.cepr.net/index.php/press-releases/press-releases/imf-conditions-harmful/
> http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publi...croeconomic-policies-and-the-world-recession/
> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-lewis/the-imf-destroys-iceland_b_276193.html


 
It wasn't an IMF article. It was a Lativan Government document. So all these articles will prove an extreme right policy agenda by the IMF will they before I waste my time? I know what the CEPR document says for one ane that doesn't prove your point at all. It simply criticises the IMF's ability to forecast and being too rigid and is right to do so. 

Actually from the Huffington post:

For example, they may demand that the government sell off "public infrastructure" and the assets of failed banks (which still have considerable value) to pay off the loans which were used to bail out the bankers in New York and London. Who buys this "public infrastructure"?

I see where you get detailed analysis from now that you can make such sweeping statements. And where have they eliminated local industry?

Also hard to explain why the IMF are exploring private individual debt forgiveness in Iceland for example given it's extreme right views. Where does that fit in?

[broken link removed]


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## Complainer

Firefly said:


> You made pretty big generalisations about the IMF. If you do insist on providing a whole books as a reference, (left leaning as they are), would it be too much to ask for specific references in it?


Yes, that would be too much. I don't have the books to hand. In fact, I don't have them at all, as I got them from the library.



Firefly said:


> This is fantastic stuff altogether and something other posters should link to whenever you ask for a reference in the future. Also, please point me to any article you have ever referenced (if your bothered to go digging for them) where I have dismissed it?


You're right, I'm not bothered to go digging for them.



Firefly said:


> Linky?


See above.




Sunny said:


> It wasn't an IMF article. It was a Lativan Government document.


I didn't say it was an IMF article. I suggested that you look beyond the IMF website.


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## Sunny

Complainer said:


> The IMF have their own sacred cows. They will eliminate public services. They will privatise everything that moves. You can expect to be paying directly for everything - health services, education, roads, water etc etc. They will eliminate local industry and encourage imports of everything. Have a look at their track record in South America.


 


Complainer said:


> Anything that involves the IMF is inherently political. They come in with an extreme-right 'Chigaco School' political approach.


 
So can you back these statements up or not?


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## Complainer

Sunny said:


> So can you back these statements up or not?


See this post.


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## Towger

Don't be so pessimistic, Complainer. If you think the IMF will be that bad you might as well clear your desk into a cardboard box and walk out the door.


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## Sunny

Complainer said:


> See this post.


 
Right so that's a 'no' then. All I needed to know.


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## Firefly

Complainer said:


> Yes, that would be too much. I don't have the books to hand. In fact, I don't have them at all, as I got them from the library.



So you expect us to read whole books to validate your claims? 



Complainer said:


> You're right, I'm not bothered to go digging for them.



Maybe it's because you know they don't exist.


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## Complainer

Sunny said:


> Right so that's a 'no' then. All I needed to know.



I think it's more a case of 'all I wanted to know' than 'all I needed to know'.



Firefly said:


> So you expect us to read whole books to validate your claims?


I really have no expectation of other AAM posters. Read the whole book, or don't read it. It doesn't bother me in the slightest, tbh.



Firefly said:


> Maybe it's because you know they don't exist.


Or maybe it's because regardless of what evidence I find, people will find ways to ignore/discount/discredit the information that they don't like. At a guess, there are articles somewhere on the internet that support my view. I'm really not that bothered to spend 20 minutes on Google digging them out.


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## Purple

Complainer said:


> Or maybe it's because regardless of what evidence I find, people will find ways to ignore/discount/discredit the information that they don't like.



How ironic...


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## sunrock

How much would  a 5% increase in tax rate of multinationals raise?


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## shnaek

sunrock said:


> How much would  a 5% increase in tax rate of multinationals raise?


It would raise their interest in moving elsewhere. So I would think it wouldn't raise much at all in the end, and probably decrease chances of further investment here.


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## Howitzer

shnaek said:


> It would raise their interest in moving elsewhere. So I would think it wouldn't raise much at all in the end, and probably decrease chances of further investment here.


Why? Those that are here for the low corporation rate don't even pay that rate at present.



I would simply enforce the existing rate so the minimum corporation tax rate IS 12.5%. And if you still have a deficit problem then go looking to increase the rate.

It seems mindless to me to increase the rate at present when the bigger companies simply employ accountants to find loopholes to reduce their effective rate to just above zero. All you're then doing is penalising SME's who don't have the profits to go to the expense of setting up elaborate tax avoidance schemes.


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## Firefly

Complainer said:


> Or maybe it's because regardless of what evidence I find, people will find ways to ignore/discount/discredit the information that they don't like.



1. If you were bothered to look you'd find I haven't ignored/discounted/discredited any links you have provided. Of course I'll argue them and give reasons why I think they are valid or not. 

2. I take it so that you won't be asking others to post references in future to back up their arguments.


----------



## Firefly

Anyway..back on topic...


----------



## Complainer

Firefly said:


> 1. If you were bothered to look you'd find I haven't ignored/discounted/discredited any links you have provided. Of course I'll argue them and give reasons why I think they are valid or not.



OK, so I bothered to look - on the first page of your posts I find;





Firefly said:


> 2. I take it so that you won't be asking others to post references in future to back up their arguments.


You can take it that I wont be ask others to post references *in a particular medium and of a particular slant* that suits me.


----------



## Bronte

Complainer said:


> The IMF have their own sacred cows. They will eliminate public services. They will privatise everything that moves. You can expect to be paying directly for everything - health services, education, roads, water etc etc. They will eliminate local industry and encourage imports of everything. Have a look at their track record in South America.


 
How is this a bad thing?  Have you taken a look at our health services and what a shambles it is, people dying due to basics such as tests being misread, or not read at all, people ringing the radio from our 'top' hospitals that make one weep?  Education, would you be referring to our schools that would that be the third world prefabs with rats and mould and damp and cold and run by in general one religious organisation of no repute. Water services, cryptosporidium anyone?


----------



## Firefly

Complainer said:


> OK, so I bothered to look - on the first page of your posts I find;



I didn't discount the article, I was just taken aback by the fact that you referenced an Indo article when you have consistently rubbished that particular newspaper/site.


----------



## Complainer

Bronte said:


> How is this a bad thing?  Have you taken a look at our health services and what a shambles it is, people dying due to basics such as tests being misread, or not read at all, people ringing the radio from our 'top' hospitals that make one weep?  Education, would you be referring to our schools that would that be the third world prefabs with rats and mould and damp and cold and run by in general one religious organisation of no repute. Water services, cryptosporidium anyone?


I'm well aware of the limitations of our current services. However, don't lose sight of what will happen if/when the IMF come in. These services will become the preserve of the rich - health, education, water etc. Like the USA, if you have money or insurance, you'll get great health cover. If you don't have money or insurance, you will die. Your local school will be sold off. Pepsi will use the school roof for advertising (if you're on a airport flight path). The school vending machine will be sponsored by a junk food company, to bring in extra revenue. If you have money, you'll buy private education in (most likely) religious schools. If you don't, you'll attend a ghetto school.


----------



## Towger

Yawn, Complainer. 
I have seen some of those free 'ghetto' schools as you call them in the USA. OK, so they do serve pizza for breakfast and take in a total mix of children from different backgrounds, but on the other hand their facilities would put our 'private schools' (except the Mexican one, whose name escapes me) to shame, and in many cases give a first class education to those who want to learn.


----------



## Ceist Beag

Complainer said:


> I'm well aware of the limitations of our current services. However, don't lose sight of what will happen if/when the IMF come in. These services will become the preserve of the rich - health, education, water etc. Like the USA, if you have money or insurance, you'll get great health cover. If you don't have money or insurance, you will die. Your local school will be sold off. Pepsi will use the school roof for advertising (if you're on a airport flight path). The school vending machine will be sponsored by a junk food company, to bring in extra revenue. If you have money, you'll buy private education in (most likely) religious schools. If you don't, you'll attend a ghetto school.



The IMF previously bailed out the USA then yeah?


----------



## Complainer

Towger said:


> Yawn, Complainer.
> I have seen some of those free 'ghetto' schools as you call them in the USA. OK, so they do serve pizza for breakfast and take in a total mix of children from different backgrounds, but on the other hand their facilities would put our 'private schools' (except the Mexican one, whose name escapes me) to shame, and in many cases give a first class education to those who want to learn.


Would these be the ones with the metal detectors at the entrance, for kids and teachers?



Ceist Beag said:


> The IMF previously bailed out the USA then yeah?


Do you really need to twist my words in order to argue your point?


----------



## Ceist Beag

Complainer said:


> Do you really need to twist my words in order to argue your point?


I haven't argued any point! I'm simply trying to understand your logic in equating the IMF coming into a country with that country then becoming like the USA in terms of public services. Have you any actual examples of this happening to back up your assertions?


----------



## Sunny

Complainer said:


> I'm well aware of the limitations of our current services. However, don't lose sight of what will happen if/when the IMF come in. These services will become the preserve of the rich - health, education, water etc. Like the USA, if you have money or insurance, you'll get great health cover. If you don't have money or insurance, you will die. Your local school will be sold off. Pepsi will use the school roof for advertising (if you're on a airport flight path). The school vending machine will be sponsored by a junk food company, to bring in extra revenue. If you have money, you'll buy private education in (most likely) religious schools. If you don't, you'll attend a ghetto school.


 
That is complete and utter rubbish. For someone whose posts usually contain a lot of sense, you have really lost the run of yourself on this topic.


----------



## Firefly

Complainer said:


> However, don't lose sight of what will happen if/when the IMF come in. These services will become the preserve of the rich - health, education, water etc. Like the USA, if you have money or insurance, you'll get great health cover. If you don't have money or insurance, you will die. Your local school will be sold off. Pepsi will use the school roof for advertising (if you're on a airport flight path). The school vending machine will be sponsored by a junk food company, to bring in extra revenue. If you have money, you'll buy private education in (most likely) religious schools. If you don't, you'll attend a ghetto school.



Can you provide links (if you're bothered) to examples of where IMF bailouts have resulted in this? (As far as I know the US hasn't been bailed-out by the IMF.  )


----------



## Complainer

Ceist Beag said:


> I haven't argued any point! I'm simply trying to understand your logic in equating the IMF coming into a country with that country then becoming like the USA in terms of public services. Have you any actual examples of this happening to back up your assertions?





Firefly said:


> Can you provide links (if you're bothered) to examples of where IMF bailouts have resulted in this? (As far as I know the US hasn't been bailed-out by the IMF.  )


No problem - see here.



Sunny said:


> For someone whose posts usually contain a lot of sense


You're too kind. I never knew you cared.


----------



## Howitzer

Pretty rubbish references. I'm surprised you didn't link to here.


----------



## Ceist Beag

Complainer said:


> No problem - see here.



You must have misunderstood the meaning of "actual example"!


----------



## Chris

Sunny said:


> Thats simply scare mongering. Where is the example of the IMF doing all those things? Especially the bit about eliminating local industry.


I would like to know this too. 

Complainer, your comment is total and utter nonsense, and even that is being charitable. Now I am not a fan of the IMF, I think they are not well run and their economic beliefs are deeply flawed. But the IMF have never gone into a country and started privatising or eliminating anything.
I was at the Kelikenomics festival at the weekend, and talked to a former Argentine minister named Martin Lousteau for a while. While he was only minister for a short time he has had quite a bit of experience with the IMF and apparently wrote a book about Argentina's economic history. I asked him what the IMF had typically done on the numerous times they came into Argentina. He said raise taxes and lower public wages. I asked "was that it?" he said yes. I was surprised about the quick and to the point answer I got from a politician, so I decided to dig deeper and I asked him specifically whether they confiscated private assets or sold off public ones, or close down public services or departments, and he said that no such thing had happened on any of the occasions.
This has also not happened in Iceland or Greece.



Complainer said:


> Anything that involves the IMF is inherently political. They come in with an extreme-right 'Chigaco School' political approach.


You really need to educate yourself a bit more on economics. The chicago school advocates free markets with low taxation. This is the opposite of what the IMF request!!!!



Bcommercial said:


> It's also a very sad indictment of the Irish people and our democratic process that we have allowed in the past, continue to allow at present and in all probability into the future, such a shower of gombeenmen Irish politicians to run our affairs, and that we as a nation are incapable of standing up and booting them out, and need to go crying to the IMF to help "fix" us.



Well said!!!


----------



## sunrock

Well why can`t our government even 2 years ago do what they will have to do anyway.
Lets stop the current account deficit...only spend what is taken in in tax.
Any public sector salary over 20k should be halved for a start so someone earning 80 k would get 50k. Welfare and spending needs to be reduced as well.
In the future period of austerity Pizza might be a bit of a luxury for the school kids.I say let them eat cheese and don`t leave any after them on account of the rats.


----------



## Sunny

sunrock said:


> Well why can`t our government even 2 years ago do what they will have to do anyway.
> Lets stop the current account deficit...only spend what is taken in in tax.
> Any public sector salary over 20k should be halved for a start so someone earning 80 k would get 50k. Welfare and spending needs to be reduced as well.



And someone earning 20k would earn 10k? Why a 50% cut? Why not cut 55%?


----------



## chrisboy

Sunny said:


> And someone earning 20k would earn 10k? Why a 50% cut? Why not cut 55%?



Because 50% would make dimrock happy, and won't affect him/her..


----------



## PaddyBloggit

sunrock said:


> .....
> Any public sector salary over 20k should be halved for a start so someone earning 80 k would get 50k.



em .... half of 80k is 40k.


----------



## aristotle

PaddyBloggit said:


> em .... half of 80k is 40k.


 
I think the logic is that any earnings over 20k would be halved. So if you earn 80 then 60k would be halved giving you 30k plus the first 20k earned.


----------



## Marietta

paddybloggit said:


> em .... Half of 80k is 40k.



+1:d


----------



## PaddyBloggit

aristotle said:


> I think the logic is that any earnings over 20k would be halved. So if you earn 80 then 60k would be halved giving you 30k plus the first 20k earned.




It may be the logic ... but it ain't what he/she said.

Still .... I get what he/she means ...... cut wages to shreds .... let them eat cheese, default on loans, go to the local CWO and hold out the begging bowl etc.


----------



## Acorn22

Looking at the news today I felt it was a crazy day in Ireland. Just going back to original thread I think mass civil unrest is just around the corner and our nation is on the edge of an abyss. I believe the government will fall before the week is out if the EU bailout takes place, this bailout proves the government have been lying for last two years about the economic mess the Celtic Tiger left behind.

Our hard fought sovereignty would be lost and major cuts in public spending, health, education, social welfare and higher taxes inevitable, corporation tax will increase as EU will have no interest in protecting Irish interests, mass emigration, unemployment and economic stagnation following, well we have this at the moment. The people will take to the streets to protest but with anarchists amongst them rioting will follow the army will be deployed and bloodshed will follow. 

This is a major turning point in our history, maybe a real revolution will take place where people will be put before power not the previous farce led by “bad poets and rich farmers sons “ , which only really changed the power from British Colonists to power hungry Irishmen. Our early leaders whose greed, lust for power and self preservation permeates today creating a culture that has ultimately destroyed the independence and sovereignty that Irishmen & women have yearned for the past millennium .


----------



## Complainer

PaddyBloggit said:


> Still .... I get what he/she means ...... cut wages to shreds .... let them eat cheese, default on loans, go to the local CWO and hold out the begging bowl etc.



There will be no 'local CWO'.


----------



## PaddyBloggit

Complainer said:


> There will be no 'local CWO'.



there'll be nothing local.


----------



## PaddyBloggit

kingvagabond said:


> Looking at the news today I felt it was a crazy day in Ireland. Just going back to original thread I think mass civil unrest is just around the corner and our nation is on the edge of an abyss. I believe the government will fall before the week is out if the EU bailout takes place, this bailout proves the government have been lying for last two years about the economic mess the Celtic Tiger left behind.
> 
> Our hard fought sovereignty would be lost and major cuts in public spending, health, education, social welfare and higher taxes inevitable, corporation tax will increase as EU will have no interest in protecting Irish interests, mass emigration, unemployment and economic stagnation following, well we have this at the moment. The people will take to the streets to protest but with anarchists amongst them rioting will follow the army will be deployed and bloodshed will follow.
> 
> This is a major turning point in our history, maybe a real revolution will take place where people will be put before power not the previous farce led by “bad poets and rich farmers sons “ , which only really changed the power from British Colonists to power hungry Irishmen. Our early leaders whose greed, lust for power and self preservation permeates today creating a culture that has ultimately destroyed the independence and sovereignty that Irishmen & women have yearned for the past millennium .



"Comrades - We are living in momentous times."  ~ Big Jim Larkin


----------



## Purple

PaddyBloggit said:


> "Comrades - We are living in momentous times."  ~ Big Jim Larkin



Ah c'mon, it's a ripe target; pick it apart.


----------



## Purple

kingvagabond said:


> Looking at the news today I felt it was a crazy day in Ireland. Just going back to original thread I think mass civil unrest is just around the corner and our nation is on the edge of an abyss. I believe the government will fall before the week is out if the EU bailout takes place, this bailout proves the government have been lying for last two years about the economic mess the Celtic Tiger left behind.


 You’re doing well up to this point, up to a point, so to speak.



kingvagabond said:


> Our hard fought sovereignty would be lost and major cuts in public spending, health, education, social welfare and higher taxes inevitable, corporation tax will increase as EU will have no interest in protecting Irish interests, mass emigration, unemployment and economic stagnation following, well we have this at the moment. The people will take to the streets to protest but with anarchists amongst them rioting will follow the army will be deployed and bloodshed will follow.


 Even this bit isn’t bad, if a bit pessimistic, even by current standards. 



kingvagabond said:


> This is a major turning point in our history, maybe a real revolution will take place where people will be put before power not the previous farce led by “bad poets and rich farmers sons “ , which only really changed the power from British Colonists to power hungry Irishmen. Our early leaders whose greed, lust for power and self preservation permeates today creating a culture that has ultimately destroyed the independence and sovereignty that Irishmen & women have yearned for the past millennium .


 This is where it goes off the tracks. I fully agree that the founders of this nation got many things wrong the major one being our political structures and electoral system but the cracks didn’t show for the first few decades because of the high moral calibre of the leaders we had (from all Parties).  Your final point ignores our own recent history. Oh, and by the way, the quest for Irish freedom i.e. Irish nationalism, is a recent thing. It has to be because Nationalism is a recent thing. It really only dates back to the 1780’s. Before then people owed allegiance to a monarch, not a state.


----------



## PaddyBloggit

Purple said:


> Ah c'mon, it's a ripe target; pick it apart.



I couldn't be bothered to be honest.


----------



## Bcommercial

Purple said:


> ...but the cracks didn’t show for the first few decades because of the high moral calibre of the leaders we had (from all Parties).



This may be true but even if such moral high calibre were present in our  current politicians (lol), that in itself is insufficient as they also  need to be capable (which they clearly are not), instead of inept (which  they clearly are). As Paul Sommerville was saying on VinB tonight, we desperately now need a team of experienced, qualified, competent hard-nosed people to deal with the eu for us during the impending bail out fund discussions, and definitely NOT the very inept shower of idiots who got us here in the first place (those are mostly my own words but you get the gist). He also made the point that all further debt the gov heap on us through accessing this fund (which will all go to funding the banks' black holes even further) only adds to our sovereign debt and tightens the noose to a stranglehold (you've guessed it, again a bit of poetic license here). Our incompetent team of "negotiators" ha! who got us into this mess by wedding the private debt of the banks to the sovereign debt with their blanket guarantee, are now further "negotiating" on our behalf to add even more billions to our sovereign debt by taking eu money directly as the sovereign to give directly to the banks again. And all of course because the ECB and all those german/french/british banks/bondholders etc all want the money they "risked?" lending to basket case Irish banks @ very nice % rates back home safely where it belongs, and the best way to achieve this is to burden the Irish people even further with increased sovereign debt.  And judging by our gov's track record to date, I despair! What a shower of Gombeenmen!


----------



## canicemcavoy

"I was at the Kelikenomics festival at the weekend"

Sorry Chris, but weren't we already told it was only comedians at that festival and we shouldn't pay them any attention.


----------



## Bcommercial

kingvagabond said:


> ...This is a major turning point in our history, maybe a real revolution will take place where people will be put before power...



Good post, and the idea quoted above is probably shared by an ever-increasing portion of our disenchanted, & soon to be even further disenfranchised citizens. But it's not going anywhere other than as a fairytale ideal unless it gets some legs...so let's try give it some legs then!

At any other time in history, in a time of high moral fibre, leadership for the common good, idealism, standing up and accepting responsibility, patriotism & pride in your country, at any other time, what has been perpetrated by those entrusted by us to act in our best interests and the interests of our children, to be the guardians of this free nation that was won so dearly, would well be deemed treasonable. 

It's not just the current new eu bail-out debt they are probably going to further strangle us with, the already insurmountable debt they've already heaped on us with the bank bail-out to date & NAMA, the eagerness to make the easy choices forcing the less well off, young and sick to bear the brunt of their budget "adjustments" (not the voting pensioners if possible please), the ballooning of the PS, FAS etc, the sleaze, brown envelopes, Galway tents, corporate donations, rezonings, tribunals, politicians' pay pensions & expenses, jets helicopters n gov limos, the hiding behind committees & quangos & HSE's & expert groups and nobody accepting responsibility for anything, the hiding behind expensive lawyers & "due process" for themselves and their business buddies with their huge bonuses, just cash the check n wait for the pension and in the meantime rip the expenses for ALL they're worth, and a big 2 Fingers to all those dumb suckers who placed their trust in them in the 1st place, cause they promised to "serve" (read self serve) their electorate in such an "altruistic" manner 'twould make a saint wanna puke!  This post will be deleted if not edited immediately CHRIST!...now I think about it, it actually IS because of all those things! 

Has anyone from Anglo or any other institution been charged with anything yet? The red herring of the missing passwords and the kazillion bits of evidence that all has to be so thoroughly read, and, er, oh yeah,  there's also due process of course, and then a file will be sent to the DPP, sometime. The dogs in the street know that nobody will or can be charged with anything of any seriousness because the regulator & DOF had given the green light for all the shenanigans and the DPP will never proceed with any prosecutions and won't even have to give a reason, and the over 2 year anglo enquiry will just dissipate as just the PR sham it always was. And the gov know all this of course, and just as they lied and lied and lied about the bank bailouts over the past 2 years and as they continued to lie about the current bail-out fund negotiations, they show us the 2 fingers of contempt yet again.

Thankfully the present administration is almost finished, but the sovereignty of the State has been so imperiled by their conduct that it could be termed as almost subversive, and the question is what could or should have been undertaken by those of us who would wish to avert such a situation arising again. The new Fine Gael Labour alternative doesn't appear to be all that different to the present one I fear. What can we do to wrench back our country from the scourge of self serving vested interests and make it into a society for ALL?

Well, one thing we have is the internet and forums such as these, where more informed and competent discourse can be found than at any gov table I'd wager, where people gladly offer help and advice to each other free of charge, did I hear altruistic?..now that might be a good place to start...a new movement! We're always here bitching amongst ourselves on these forums, why not organize something...the Net Party (I am open to suggestions here, answers on a postcard please to "the Island", oh no, of course there's the internet, an email will do just as good so!) People will contribute their different wishes for the new post bail-out Ireland and by a process of electronic hit counts our new manifesto will take shape! 

Any takers? ... I wanna be Chancellor! And if you give me your vote I promise I'll look after you 'n yours


----------



## Bronte

Whether we get a bailout from the EU/IMF or not there will have to be cuts and emigration. There are no two ways about this. We spend more than we take in. This is the fault of the people who overspent and who voted in those who promised everything and delivered nothing while bankrupting the country. 

I don't get all this nationalistic jargon at this point in time. We corrupted ourselves. Nobody else is at fault here. Until we learn to grow up and elect those who will govern properly and not for their own vested interests nothing will change. That won't happen unless we have someone of vision who will change the whole establishment and the way it works, that is parliament, lower and upper house, legal system etc. But for that we need a people that are behind a fundamental change in the structure of Irish society. And if a revolution is needed for that so be it. 

Meanwhile, in case there is no revolution, we need to get real and be prepared to deal with spending cuts, higher taxes and emigration. The positives are that we have done it before, we've come through worse recessions and if everyone does their bit there is no reason why we cannot become a stronger better nation. I for one am not proud of the celtic tiger generation and the sooner we leave it behind the better.


----------



## amh

Bronte said:


> We need to get real and be prepared to deal spending cuts, higher taxes and emigration. The positives are that we have done it before, we've come through worse recessions and if everyone does their bit there is no reason why we cannot become a stronger better nation.


 
Well said Bronte, the sooner we accept what we cannot change and get on with taking the pain that we will have to take the better it will be for everyone.

It's about managing the pain and how best to spread it around and doing the least amount of damage to the economy that we are being left with.


----------



## suemoo1

amh said:


> Well said Bronte, the sooner we accept what we cannot change and get on with taking the pain that we will have to take the better it will be for everyone.
> 
> It's about managing the pain and how best to spread it around and doing the least amount of damage to the economy that we are being left with.


 

Why should we accept that we cannot change.. people change all the time, yes we can manage the pain and get on with it and work at it but to say we cannot change is wrong.. we are a strong people, many clever, hard working, trustworthy people in our nation, its up to us the people to seek change or it will never happen..we do have a voice, we just have to use it.


----------



## sunrock

Sorry for any misunderstanding.
As  ARISTOTLE said the first 20 k would  not suffer a reduction. Above that we need a reduction in all salaries that come from the public purse.And even bigger cuts above 100k. Reverse benchmarking and welfare levels back to 1996 if you like.
The point I am trying to make  is that this is what a serious government would do  in trying to get our current account deficit under control. Not lurching from crisis to crisis in the hope that something will turn up to remedy the situation.
That is not going to happen . The markets have called our bluff  and we are going to be bailed out with very harsh conditions. We can`t refuse this money ,otherwise we would run out of money to pay  salaries and welfare.
People still lived well in 1996 so a step down to the pay levels then wouldn`t be a disaster.Lower wages would mean lower costs .Admittedly people with high debts will have problems but it is the only way.
It is very important to keep our low  corporate tax rate , otherwise the multinationals will leave. The talk about the attraction of speaking english and our well educated work force  is  vastly over rated. My gut feeling is that the corporate tax rate will rise to 20 or 25%. Imagine the scenario with the IMF and the ECB in the "negotiations" with our politicians. Do you want to reduce salaries, pensions and welfare by ANOTHER 15% and close  ANOTHER 10 local hospitals or instead you can increase the corporation tax by 15%?
We will get a taste of things to come in the upcoming budget.


----------



## Purple

Good posts Bcommercial, I agree with you.


----------



## mmclo

I think we will see a 20bn bailout linked to the banks a sort of fund that Irish CB will administer but many a slip between cup and lip. Presume ECB will stomp up til this is agreed


----------



## onekeano

Think I heard it mentioned last night that in Hungary (or it could have been Latvia!) that the IMF reduces the size of Parliament by 50% - sounds like an excellent start to me. This would bring the notion of performance management into government ie. you screw up and you pay the penalty, and I have no doubt 83 TDs would be far more efficient than 166 who spend their days reading the death notices looking for something to do.

Roy


----------



## onekeano

mmclo said:


> I think we will see a 20bn bailout linked to the banks a sort of fund that Irish CB will administer but many a slip between cup and lip. Presume ECB will stomp up til this is agreed



But Somerville put it brilliantly on Vincent Browne last night when he said something like "they will give us the first tranche of say €20BN which the Irish Govt will then give to BOI and AIB, who will in turn hand it back to the German Banks who threw money at Irish Banks - so net effect is that Irish taxpayer is on the hook for a further €20BN and German banks are very relieved to get €20BN they never thought they would see again"

Good man Biffo!

Roy


----------



## lightswitch

onekeano said:


> But Somerville put it brilliantly on Vincent Browne last night when he said something like "they will give us the first tranche of say €20BN which the Irish Govt will then give to BOI and AIB, who will in turn hand it back to the German Banks who threw money at Irish Banks - so net effect is that Irish taxpayer is on the hook for a further €20BN and German banks are very relieved to get €20BN they never thought they would see again"
> 
> Good man Biffo!
> 
> Roy


 
Totally agree with you onekeano.  The decisons have already been made and what you have outlined above is the most likely result.  They simply aren't telling us yet and it might be quite some time for them to finally do so.  

There is a strong need for us all to ensure whatever money goes into the banks from the EU is not considered to be an Irish debt but instead is regarded as a Bank to Bank loan.  We as a people have wasted enough money on these black holes that we still call Banks.


----------



## Chris

Bcommercial said:


> This may be true but even if such moral high calibre were present in our  current politicians (lol), that in itself is insufficient as they also  need to be capable (which they clearly are not), instead of inept (which  they clearly are)...


Good post and nice conclusion



canicemcavoy said:


> "I was at the Kelikenomics festival at the weekend"
> 
> Sorry Chris, but weren't we already told it was only comedians at that festival and we shouldn't pay them any attention.



Well, I went to two shows and there wasn't any commedians. All economists except for one Keynesian.


----------



## csirl

In my opinion, if the German banks were stupid enough to lend to Seanie and co, then they should get burned. Our Government should take a stand on this issue and say that the Irish taxpayer will not carry the can for wreakless Germans.

While at early stages in this crisis, the impression was given that Anglo is systemic to the Irish bank system. This appears to have been incorrect. Its becoming increasingly clear that Anglo was a bank that got money from German pensioners and lend it out to builders for overpriced crazy landmark schemes in London - hence why the UK Government has suddenly started announcing that it is willing to contribute to a bail out. 

If we dont dance to the EU tune, German pensions and the London property market are toast. Germans and UK are trying to call the shots to protect themselves. We should cut Anglo lose and tell them to sort their own mess out.


----------



## shnaek

Bronte said:


> I don't get all this nationalistic jargon at this point in time. We corrupted ourselves. Nobody else is at fault here. Until we learn to grow up and elect those who will govern properly and not for their own vested interests nothing will change.



I agree completely. Taking responsibility for yourself is the crade of society - we have failed to do this as a nation again and again. 

People talk about riots on the streets if we are bailed out. I've already heard of muggings going on in the car park of our local supermarket. Society? Give me a break. Honour, decency, compassion, responsibility and truth - that is the begining of society. Everything else comes on top. 

Clearly we cannot rule ourselves. So let someone else come in so we can blame them for doing what we would have had to have done if our banana republic had been solo, instead of part of the EU. 

Yes the EU contributed by having lower interest rates than were appropriate for us. But guess what, we didn't join the Euro over night! Politicians and civil servants debated this point for 10 years! The decision was made to go in, then our entire goverment and beaurocracy got drunk and ran our country with a skill more apropriate to Mugabe than a civilised nation.

Is there hope? God I hope so. But by Christ we need change, all the way from the top to the bottom, and the bottom to the top. We need to grow up. Otherwise this country is not worth staying in.


----------



## Chris

csirl said:


> In my opinion, if the German banks were stupid enough to lend to Seanie and co, then they should get burned. Our Government should take a stand on this issue and say that the Irish taxpayer will not carry the can for wreakless Germans.


I fully agree with you. A abilout does not solve Ireland's problems. Ireland's problem is that it is saddled with too much debt. A bailout does nothing to reduce that unmanageable load. Default is the only sensible thing to do.



shnaek said:


> Yes the EU contributed by having lower interest rates than were appropriate for us. But guess what, we didn't join the Euro over night! Politicians and civil servants debated this point for 10 years! The decision was made to go in, then our entire goverment and beaurocracy got drunk and ran our country with a skill more apropriate to Mugabe than a civilised nation.


You hit the nail on the head there, but it could be interpreted as an insult to Mugabe ;-)


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## Purple

How will we ever have a better government when we don’t have a politically educated electorate? We don’t even teach civics in school. We don’t teach our kids about the constitution and where executive power resides or what the function of the different houses of the Oireachtas are. We don’t teach them what their duties are as citizens or what the President does or where the Supreme Court fits into things. Then the tin hat on top of all that is our stupid electoral system and our stupid (non)separation of powers between the executive and the legislature. How the hell can we expect anything other than the bunch of parochial glorified county councillors that we have running the country now?


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## shnaek

Purple said:


> How will we ever have a better government when we don’t have a politically educated electorate? We don’t even teach civics in school. We don’t teach our kids about the constitution and where executive power resides or what the function of the different houses of the Oireachtas are. We don’t teach them what their duties are as citizens or what the President does or where the Supreme Court fits into things. Then the tin hat on top of all that is our stupid electoral system and our stupid (non)separation of powers between the executive and the legislature. How the hell can we expect anything other than the bunch of parochial glorified county councillors that we have running the country now?



Fully agree. And also with Chris. We will default eventually.


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## Marion

I suspect the Department of Education would not agree with the above.












Curriculum:


Source: cspe.slss.ie

Marion


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## Bcommercial

Bronte said:


> Whether we get a bailout from the EU/IMF or not there will have to be cuts and emigration. There are no two ways about this. We spend more than we take in. This is the fault of the people who overspent and who voted in those who promised everything and delivered nothing while bankrupting the country.
> 
> I don't get all this nationalistic jargon at this point in time. We corrupted ourselves. Nobody else is at fault here. Until we learn to grow up and elect those who will govern properly and not for their own vested interests nothing will change. That won't happen unless we have someone of vision who will change the whole establishment and the way it works, that is parliament, lower and upper house, legal system etc. But for that we need a people that are behind a fundamental change in the structure of Irish society. And if a revolution is needed for that so be it.
> 
> Meanwhile, in case there is no revolution, we need to get real and be prepared to deal with spending cuts, higher taxes and emigration. The positives are that we have done it before, we've come through worse recessions and if everyone does their bit there is no reason why we cannot become a stronger better nation. I for one am not proud of the celtic tiger generation and the sooner we leave it behind the better.



Well put, I'd agree with most of that. And overuse of  nationalistic jargon is looking at things though rose tinted glasses, as we've long since been trading our sovereignty off as a quid pro quo since joining the eu, and have benefited handsomely from it too. However on the other hand, I wouldn't like to let this gov off the hook in any way by minimizing the significance of what they've brought upon us. Yes, people voted them in, but that didn't give them the right to bankrupt the country after their election by taking one irresponsible decision after another since Sept 08. And although cuts must come, they will almost certainly be even more drastic on the most vulnerable among us under the IMF/EU bailout scheme than the originally planned gov cuts would have been. And we're just going to have to stand by and watch while these faceless & unelected guests which the gov have "invited" into our country go about pursuing their own agenda...Grrr!

Anyway, back to being constructive, you are totally correct that until we as a people have a fundamental change in our attitudes to how politics should function in this country into the future then nothing will change. However, will this really happen?..because history has that bad habit of repeating itself, and how often do you hear people say "yeah, give it a few years and all this will be forgotten and FF will be back in again", and you despair, because you know deep down how plausible that statement is? And look at the "opposition" and tell me the difference between FF & FG, my god they were crying out for even more splurge during the boom, and their proposals for cuts etc going forward are identical to FF. The only thing that's going to be different this time around which might kick-start a new political awareness, is that people should be much less apathetic because EVERYONE is going to bear the brunt of our political mismanagement BIG TIME, for many years to come. And there's nothing better for focusing the mind ..."Floggings shall continue until moral has improved!"

One final point, many people share the positive attitude as yourself, that we've been in recessions before and we've gotten out of them and we'll get out of this one too. But, we never had levels of personal debt back in the 80's as we have now which is really going to stifle consumption going forward, and we rode on the back of a world wide recovery back then too which is not there to help us this time around. Add to this the never ending saga of the ever-increasing bank bail-out costs plus further bail-out fund debt and the question is, how and in what shape will we come out of this one? The total debt (+ interest) will not be humanly possible to pay back, the numbers don't add up, and so it is therefore in Ireland's best interests that debt restructuring with bond-holders & ECB should happen now and not later when we are bled dry. The EU (and our gov) know that this debt is unpayable and that re-structuring must eventually happen at some point in the future. However, to calm other eu members' bond market spreads now, to "safeguard the euro", to get as much money back for other EU banks/bondholders & the ECB first, we are to be the sacrificial lamb on the alter of the greater eu good. The ECB is the lender of last resort to banks and is solely responsible for it's lending practices, and if they irresponsibly lent good eu taxpayers money out to insolvent irish banks, they should be held accountable for same, not the Irish people! It is again so disgustingly sad that our gov appears to be towing the eu line to the detriment of their own people, by accepting even more sovereign debt, which we will then give to our banks, who will then give it back to the ECB. Crazy!


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## Purple

Marion said:


> I suspect the Department of Education would not agree with the above.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Curriculum:
> 
> 
> Source: cspe.slss.ie
> 
> Marion



Fair enough Marion, I'm happy to stand corrected. I hope when these students are older and running the country they do a better job than this lot.


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## Bcommercial

lightswitch said:


> Totally agree with you onekeano.  The decisons have already been made and what you have outlined above is the most likely result.  They simply aren't telling us yet and it might be quite some time for them to finally do so.
> 
> There is a strong need for us all to ensure whatever money goes into the banks from the EU is not considered to be an Irish debt but instead is regarded as a Bank to Bank loan.  We as a people have wasted enough money on these black holes that we still call Banks.



+1 guys, nice posts!


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## Bcommercial

csirl said:


> in my opinion, if the german banks were stupid enough to lend to seanie and co, then they should get burned. Our government should take a stand on this issue and say that the irish taxpayer will not carry the can for wreakless germans.
> 
> While at early stages in this crisis, the impression was given that anglo is systemic to the irish bank system. This appears to have been incorrect. Its becoming increasingly clear that anglo was a bank that got money from german pensioners and lend it out to builders for overpriced crazy landmark schemes in london - hence why the uk government has suddenly started announcing that it is willing to contribute to a bail out.
> 
> If we dont dance to the eu tune, german pensions and the london property market are toast. Germans and uk are trying to call the shots to protect themselves. We should cut anglo lose and tell them to sort their own mess out.



+1


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## sunrock

No matter how educated and informed the electorate is, the people will always vote for the politicians that they think will be for their immeadiate benefit. In power the government will then be under constant pressure from unions and pressure groups demanding ever increasing benefits and perks. It got to the stage where the louder the demands the more was given and so people felt that the way to get more was to demand more.The politicians couldn`t resist...after all they were getting huge salaries too and were very popular. Who cared about the banks or the public finances. When the sh*t hit the fan they would have their money made and if in opposition so what.
2 years ago they knew what had to be done but didn`t want to lose face. Let anglo go and reduce all public monies....salaries, welfare and capital expenditure by at least10%.
I have heard that public servants have not yet suffered a reduction in their net pay.
Even now the gov. clearly can`t wait to get into opposition to oppose the inevitable cuts.
In government they are holding out in implementing any austerity to the point that the IMF has to be called in.
I am sorry to say it but we need a strong man to take charge. Someone who will sort out our finances without fear or favour.


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## shnaek

We could have a system where we elect local government to look after local issues, and a seperate system where we elect 12 ministers to run the country for five years. Remove the dail. It's just a farce anyways. We could leave a reformed senate in place as a system-check.


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## chrisboy

sunrock said:


> I have heard that public servants have not yet suffered a reduction in their net pay.



What do you mean by this?


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## sunrock

Well the croke part agreement means no cuts in pay. There was the pension levy ,thats true.
My point is the government knew the scale of our problems 2 years ago and cuts should have started from that date.Instead the exact opposite was done with the croke park agreement.It is quite clear that the government is very resistant to cuts to well paid public servants.It will have less problems hitting the easy targets like cuts to frontline services. By the way I am opposed to job cuts and in favor of job sharing .
Take the case of the health service where the government wants a 30 % cut....yet 70 % of the health budget consists of wages and salaries, some of them on very large salaries .


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## Complainer

sunrock said:


> the case of the health service where the government wants a 30 % cut....yet 70 % of the health budget consists of wages and salaries.



People keep quoting the 70% figure as if it's evidence of some kind of problem. Health services are labour intensive. That's the nature of the business.


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## chrisboy

sunrock said:


> Well the croke part agreement means no cuts in pay. There was the pension levy ,thats true.
> My point is the government knew the scale of our problems 2 years ago and cuts should have started from that date.Instead the exact opposite was done with the croke park agreement.It is quite clear that the government is very resistant to cuts to well paid public servants.It will have less problems hitting the easy targets like cuts to frontline services. By the way I am opposed to job cuts and in favor of job sharing .
> Take the case of the health service where the government wants a 30 % cut....yet 70 % of the health budget consists of wages and salaries, some of them on very large salaries .




So you found the pension levy. What about the paycut? If your going to make statements at least let them be true..


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## Deiseblue

And of course the comment of a 30% cut to the HSE budget is nonsense as well.


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## becky

sunrock said:


> Well the croke part agreement means no cuts in pay. There was the pension levy ,thats true.
> My point is the government knew the scale of our problems 2 years ago and cuts should have started from that date.Instead the exact opposite was done withi the croke park agreement.It is quite clear that the government is very resistant to cuts to well paid public servants.It will have less problems hitting the easy targets like cuts to frontline services. By the way I am opposed to job cuts and in favor of job sharing .
> Take the case of the health service where the government wants a 30 % cut....yet 70 % of the health budget consists of wages and salaries, some of them on very large salaries .



I have been in the HSE 20 years and pay was always circa 70% of the budget, it's nothing new.  I'm surprised it isn't more what with all the Asst National Directors, extra functional officers etc we got since 2005.

My net pay is down €100 or so euro a week since all the levies. I have got one increment since then which almost brought me back to Dec 2009 rates before pay cut in Jan 2010.


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## sunrock

Complainer said:


> People keep quoting the 70% figure as if it's evidence of some kind of problem. Health services are labour intensive. That's the nature of the business.


 
My point is and I think it is fairly obvious is simply how can a huge cut be made to the health service and yet the 70 % of the health service budget that consists of wages and salaries cannot be touched.
I don`t consider the pension levy as a pay cut...it was a perk that is now being paid for. The fact is that public sector salaries are much higher here than our european competitors and all financed by borrowing and they must be  at a realistic level to protect jobs and services.


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## Complainer

sunrock said:


> r the pension levy as a pay cut...it was a perk that is now being paid for. The fact is that public sector salaries are much higher here than our european competitors and all financed by borrowing and they must be  at a realistic level to protect jobs and services.


They may be higher than our European competitors, but so is the cost of living here, particularly property (rent or buy). Unless you have a magic teleport machine that allows people to live in UK/France/Germany while working here as teachers or building control inspectors or environmental inspectors, then they need the income that will allow them to live and work here.



sunrock said:


> My point is and I think it is fairly obvious is simply how can a huge cut be made to the health service and yet the 70 % of the health service budget that consists of wages and salaries cannot be touched.
> I don`t consider the pension levy as a pay cut...it was a perk that is now being paid for.



So many factual errors here that it's hard to know where to start.

1) The pension levy is just a pay cut. The money deducted does not go towards pensions. Many low-paid public sector staff pay the levy, but will get little or no pension, as the standard OAP is deducted from public sector pensions. Those who do get decent public sector pensions now have to worry about the risk of whether the State will be able to pay their pension at retirement - nice perk, eh?

2) The 70% of the health budget that consists of wages and salaries HAS already been touched (or groped unmercifully, more like) and will continue to be hit. The pension levy and the pay cut have cut this budget. The embargo on replacing leavers and retirees (which has decimated much of the mental health services in particular) has cut this. The current redundancy programme has cut this.


This '70% of budget can't be cut' is a big PR lie from Mary Harney designed to distract attention from her own personal abysmal failure to provide a half-decent health service. Don't fall for the spin.


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## chrisboy

sunrock said:


> My point is and I think it is fairly obvious is simply how can a huge cut be made to the health service and yet the 70 % of the health service budget that consists of wages and salaries cannot be touched.
> I don`t consider the pension levy as a pay cut...it was a perk that is now being paid for. The fact is that public sector salaries are much higher here than our european competitors and all financed by borrowing and they must be  at a realistic level to protect jobs and services.




Id still like to know where you heard that civil servants havent taken a paycut. There's a lot of off the cuff comments bandied around the recent threads, that just cant be substantiated..


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## Purple

Complainer said:


> They may be higher than our European competitors, but so is the cost of living here, particularly property (rent or buy). Unless you have a magic teleport machine that allows people to live in UK/France/Germany while working here as teachers or building control inspectors or environmental inspectors, then they need the income that will allow them to live and work here.


 I know that economics isn't your strongest area so just to let you know; there is a link between pay and costs.




Complainer said:


> This '70% of budget can't be cut' is a big PR lie from Mary Harney designed to distract attention from her own personal abysmal failure to provide a half-decent health service. Don't fall for the spin.


 That's right, it's all her fault


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## Capricorn 1

Like Becky, I too have had a large pay cut.  The average wage for public servants, quoted by the media is higher than what I'me getting and the bulk of staff are in the grades below mine.  The reality is that some of my colleagues who work at the counter in the employment exchanges are paying out way more to the customers than they themselves are getting.  If their pay is cut any more, it will be hardly worth their while working.  And believe me, these staff really work hard!


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## mayfair

Why not ask the Vatican city for money. Seems to me that enough money is collected over the decades and they are swimming in money there. the taps and doorhandles are made from gold.


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## Calico

becky said:


> I have been in the HSE 20 years and pay was always circa 70% of the budget, it's nothing new.  I'm surprised it isn't more what with all the Asst National Directors, extra functional officers etc we got since 2005.
> 
> My net pay is down €100 or so euro a week since all the levies. I have got one increment since then which almost brought me back to Dec 2009 rates before pay cut in Jan 2010.



Sorry, but what a joke! Pay rises (increments) just for working from year to year without any change in role, or increase in productivity. IMF take note.


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## Deiseblue

Calico said:


> Sorry, but what a joke! Pay rises (increments) just for working from year to year without any change in role, or increase in productivity. IMF take note.



Same incremental system applies in large swathes of the private sector.


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## Calico

Deiseblue said:


> Same incremental system applies in large swathes of the private sector.



And herein lies more reasons for our problems....the Public Service does not, and has never operated under the same conditions as the Private Sector....equating the too is not appropriate.......unless of course you remove PS pensions, jobs for life, career breaks, absenteeism etc. etc.


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## Deiseblue

Calico said:


> And herein lies more reasons for our problems....the Public Service does not, and has never operated under the same conditions as the Private Sector....equating the too is not appropriate.......unless of course you remove PS pensions, jobs for life, career breaks, absenteeism etc. etc.



Don't tell me that occupational pensions , career breaks and absenteeism don't exist in the private sector !

Indeed I would hope that any good employer would provide career breaks and a reasonable occupational pension.


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## becky

Calico said:


> Sorry, but what a joke! Pay rises (increments) just for working from year to year without any change in role, or increase in productivity. IMF take note.



I've had 8 different roles in different areas of the HSE.  My productivity is good as I'm aware that the output is my area is the same as other areas with more staff.  

My boss who came from the private sector has told me I am one of the strongest performers she has worked with.

The last time I took a sick day was in 2008 when I lost my voice.  I came into work but my job involves a lot of phone work, so I was sent home.  I was back at work the next day.

I was responding to an earlier post where someone said some public servants were still on the same net pay despite the levies.  I shouldn't have mentioned the increment as I realise it's a bone of contention with a lot of people.

I do expect another pay decrease next year but I don't work in the public service for the money.


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## PaddyBloggit

becky said:


> I do expect another pay decrease next year but I don't work in the public service for the money.



A strange end to a reasoned post. If you don't work for the money what do you work for?


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## Purple

Deiseblue said:


> Don't tell me that occupational pensions , career breaks and absenteeism don't exist in the private sector !
> 
> Indeed I would hope that any good employer would provide career breaks and a reasonable occupational pension.



Most SME companies administer pensions for their employees, as they are required to do by law. I am not aware of any SME company I deal with that has a career break scheme in place. We don't give sick pay and we don't have any "family friendly" policies. When the Polish, Americans, Chinese etc have them we might think about it. We'd have to be cheaper as a nation than Germany, the UK, the USA and Hollans first though.


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## chrisboy

PaddyBloggit said:


> A strange end to a reasoned post. If you don't work for the money what do you work for?




Nothing strange at all about it. I'm public sector too, i love my job and wouldnt change it no matter what the money..


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## PaddyBloggit

The two comments made just aren't reasonable:



becky said:


> _"I do expect another pay decrease next year but I don't work in the public service for the money."   _



and



chrisboy said:


> _" ..and wouldnt change it no matter what the money."_




I love my job too but working in a job that doesn't pay or doesn't pay  enough for a person to survive on doesn't make sense whether it be in  the public or private sector.

Work to live rather than live to work.

By all means let people state that they love their jobs but stating that the money doesn't matter is pulling the wool over theirr own eyes.

Of course the money matters .... it's the currency we need to buy food, pay bills, put a roof over our heads etc.

If a person can survive on less than they earn let them volunteer for a pay cut.

It'd be interesting to see how many would volunteer.


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## onq

PaddyBloggit said:


> A strange end to a reasoned post. If you don't work for the money what do you work for?



For some its a vocation.
Some people do their job for the exercise of their skill and ability.

For example, there are very few millionaire architects, but I wouldn't want to do anything else.
Despite the fact that it is becoming increasing difficult to find any new, never mind profitable, work at the moment, this is my profession.
I will stick with it, improve my skills base, offer them to other markets if there are no willing clients here, but hopefully still be able keep my family, and sole domicile [and pay my taxes] in Ireland.
This is my home, it is where I live and where I hope to end my days.
There are few other places I would want to relocate to.

ONQ.

[broken link removed]


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## PaddyBloggit

I understand that onq .... but the vocation still has to put food on the table and to do that a wage has to appear in the bank account. 

Saying categorically that money doesn't matter in the overall scheme of things is way off the mark. You can love your job but it still needs to provide the cash ....


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## becky

PaddyBloggit - I meant that money isn't the main reason I go to work.  I didn't mean to imply that money doesn't matter at all.  Of course it does, I need to pay my bills, eat, buy shoes etc.


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## chrisboy

PaddyBloggit said:


> The two comments made just aren't reasonable:
> 
> 
> 
> and
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I love my job too but working in a job that doesn't pay or doesn't pay  enough for a person to survive on doesn't make sense whether it be in  the public or private sector.
> 
> Work to live rather than live to work.
> 
> By all means let people state that they love their jobs but stating that the money doesn't matter is pulling the wool over theirr own eyes.
> 
> Of course the money matters .... it's the currency we need to buy food, pay bills, put a roof over our heads etc.
> 
> If a person can survive on less than they earn let them volunteer for a pay cut.
> 
> It'd be interesting to see how many would volunteer.




So my job doesnt pay enough to cover my expenses, what do i do? Go out and get a better paying job, because there's loads of them out there..

Work to live, not live live to work is a nice little cliche, but unfortunately after the budget, and the imf there aint gonna be much living! Work to survive will be the only thing a lot of folk will have..

I never said that money doesnt matter, but if my wages gets cut over the next few weeks, im still going to be working where im working. Ive no choice, and if it isnt enough to cover my bills, ive still no choice.. And maybe i'm one of the lucky ones because there's plenty of people who dont earn enough and hate their work, at least i love mine..


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## sunrock

I predict that the minimum wage will be cut...I just have a gut feeing.
I am not an oracle , but my antenna are out and the signals are unmistakeable.
No politician has made an announcement yet and I don`t have any inside knowledge...its just that the softening up brigade have been doing their thing in the media.I now predict the strategy...the cuts will start at the bottom and work their way up.


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## allthedoyles

Direct taxation cannot be increased . With PRSI / Levies at 9% and the higher tax rate at 41% , surely it cannot be justified to ask the average industrial earners to pay more than 50 % .


----------



## PaddyBloggit

sunrock said:


> I predict that the minimum wage will be cut...I just have a gut feeing.
> I am not an oracle , but my antenna are out and the signals are unmistakeable.
> No politician has made an announcement yet and I don`t have any inside knowledge...its just that the softening up brigade have been doing their thing in the media.I now predict the strategy...the cuts will start at the bottom and work their way up.



Lenihan has said that the minimum wage is being looked at so it's probably on the way down.


----------



## PaddyBloggit

allthedoyles said:


> Direct taxation cannot be increased . With PRSI / Levies at 9% and the higher tax rate at 41% , surely it cannot be justified to ask the average industrial earners to pay more than 50 % .




Never say never .... up it's going so anything is possible.


----------



## onq

PaddyBloggit said:


> I understand that onq .... but the vocation still has to put food on the table and to do that a wage has to appear in the bank account.


No argument from me on that score.


> Saying categorically that money doesn't matter in the overall scheme of things is way off the mark. You can love your job but it still needs to provide the cash ....


I don't think that was being said by the person in question and I  certainly didn't say that.
My point was that I am happy doing what I am doing because I like it, if I wanted to become rich I probably wouldn't be an architect, there are very few very rich architects out there.

ONQ.


----------



## PaddyBloggit

Cease fire me thinks!


----------



## Chris

Deiseblue said:


> Same incremental system applies in large swathes of the private sector.



Private companies can only give pay rises if they increase profits through increased productivity, and this can only be achieved by offering a better product than competitors. More importantly there are very often decrements even in times of booming economies.


----------



## Afuera

Chris said:


> Private companies can *only* give pay rises if they increase profits through increased productivity, and this can *only* be achieved by offering a better product than competitors.


While this sounds nice in theory, unfortunately it's a bit naive. 

Throughout history, many a private company has hoodwinked investors into giving more money. In many cases these windfalls end up benefiting employees in the form of pay rises or stock options.

Also, it's surprising the number of private companies that owe their existence/success to political instruments such as licensing or by being given governmental support of one form or another. Offering a better product than competitors often does not even come into the equation.


----------



## Purple

Back on topic; “what will happen in the coming months?”

We will default on our debts. 

The IMF/ECB are not bailing us out, they are lending us money at a better rate than anyone else. We will still owe over 200 billion at the end of this. That’s well over €100’000 for each member of the workforce or nearly a quarter of a million Euro for each income tax payer. Even at 5% interest that’s an extra €12’500 per income tax payer per year or €240 per week. Who we owe it to doesn’t change that.  There’s no way on earth that we will ever be able to pay that off without default or very high inflation. The ECB won’t go with high inflation so...


----------



## shnaek

purple said:


> back on topic; “what will happen in the coming months?”
> 
> we will default on our debts.
> 
> The imf/ecb are not bailing us out, they are lending us money at a better rate than anyone else. We will still owe over 200 billion at the end of this. That’s well over €100’000 for each member of the workforce or nearly a quarter of a million euro for each income tax payer. Even at 5% interest that’s an extra €12’500 per income tax payer per year or €240 per week. Who we owe it to doesn’t change that.  There’s no way on earth that we will ever be able to pay that off without default or very high inflation. The ecb won’t go with high inflation so...



+1


----------

