# Omicron 80% less likely to result in hospitalisation?



## Brendan Burgess (22 Dec 2021)

South Africans with Omicron variant 80pc less likely to be hospitalised, study finds
					

Scientists warn findings may not apply globally and WHO says more data needed on Omicron severity




					www.irishtimes.com
				




It's hard to disentangle this one.

1) Omicron is much more transmissible so maybe people are getting a "small dose" of it and small doses are less serious? 
2) Is Omicron "replacing" the other variants?  In other words, without Omicron, if I were to get Covid, I would get another variant. But if I get Omicron, does it stop me getting the other variants? 
3) So is Omicron a blessing in disguise? Like a natural immunisation. Get a little sick with Omicron instead of very sick with Delta?


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## odyssey06 (22 Dec 2021)

(1) Not sure. It may be that its cells are better at 'sticking' to upper respiratory system but less able to penetrate the lungs...
_A study found that the variant multiplies faster in the human bronchi but does not replicate that effect in the lung tissue which is why it does not cause the severity of the disease. The study is however not peer-reviewed yet._

(2) Yes, that seems to be what's happening. As long as you have a cold virus 'active' infection, it stops you from getting covid was one article I read so I assume it works similar manner for covid variants. 

(3) Possibly. At this stage, I'm not trusting the SA data in isolation, need to see it replicated in a country more similar in profile to Ireland. Even if it's much milder than Delta, with so many more cases, there will still be severe ones and some unexpected healthy under 60s hit v hard by it and put into ICU. In the US the first Omicron fatality was someone unvaccinated but who had covid last year.
To follow on from point (2) while active Omicron may block Delta, is there a chance you could get Omicron and then in a few weeks be vulnerable to another variant... that's speculation at this point.


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## Paul O Mahoney (23 Dec 2021)

There are 2 studies one SA,one Scotland, that are saying the above, and it would appear that SA may have passed its peak.

We know transmisablity is higher and as Odyssey said the infection appears bronchial and unlike previous variants doesn't affect other organs or put to much pressure on the primary organs in comparison. Which is great ,but its early days.

Evidence would suggest that, and historically that's what happens. 

Its unknown why Omicron can re-infect vaccinated people or people who have had other variants, it's not known where Omicron came from as it has different genetic makeup. (Its now being reported its thought it came from one person who is HIV positive, CNBC, MSNBC and a few others are reporting this, despite no actual facts being offered)

 It is a Coronavirus but might not be the same as the original and it's off spring, Alpha and Delta, yes they refer to virus variants in genealogy terms, it might be a new Coronavirus and like the common cold exists alongside other viruses.

 I'm not convinced it will prevent anyone from getting another variant if you get Omicron,  viruses evolve as Omicron has shown it does re infect.

I wish this was the end , we all would but we simply do not know what lays ahead.

We need vaccines to be available to 80% of the population of the world otherwise variants will pop up and that's a high risk strategy.


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## Paul O Mahoney (23 Dec 2021)

A third study by Imperial college London has said Omicron will cause 45% less hospitalisation,  as defined as one full day in hospital. 
One expert said ," but with higher transmission rates (30/40%) might negate the reduction in hospitalisations and increase deaths" he went on " transmission rates are the key  to everything ".

However,  Stock Markets rallied on the news and a City analyst said " Stock Markets don't really care about transmission rates or hospital admissions ,its the expected effects on economies and businesses is their main concern."

Lower hospitalisations and death would be the ideal result from this wave and that might happen with boosters rolled out, but I feel it's too early to say.


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## Paul O Mahoney (23 Dec 2021)

Covid: Ministers watch data as studies say Omicron risk lower
					

Scientists say early signs are good news but a big wave of infections could still overwhelm the NHS.



					www.bbc.com
				




Just posted on BBC website and it gives more comments


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## Paul O Mahoney (29 Dec 2021)

Reading the BBC website,  I won't link as it's a very long story covering multiple issues,  but  the figures given are interesting but aren't 100% as Scotland and NI hadn't reported beyond Christmas Eve.

The 7 day case average is 144k with 84 deaths over the same period.

So,  its probably true that it's a lot milder than Delta, however couldn't find the hospitalisation figures.

I should add that the vaccines are also mentioned as one of the factors that appears to make Omicron less deadly.


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## odyssey06 (31 Dec 2021)

Hospital numbers increased by 100 on a week ago with v small drop in ICU.

Interesting comment from CMO
"Over 90% of people in hospital and intensive care with Covid-19 are there for the management of Covid-19; less than 5% of those in hospital or intensive care have ‘incidental’ (asymptomatic, non-infectious) disease.”


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## Protocol (31 Dec 2021)

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1476581879524564995


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## Protocol (31 Dec 2021)

https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1476581027938140162


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## Bluefin (31 Dec 2021)

V good info.. 

Would be nice if the Department of health here produced such stats


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## joe sod (1 Jan 2022)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Its unknown why Omicron can re-infect vaccinated people or people who have had other variants, it's not known where Omicron came from as it has different genetic makeup. (Its now being reported its thought it came from one person who is HIV positive, CNBC, MSNBC and a few others are reporting this, despite no actual facts being offered)
> 
> It is a Coronavirus but might not be the same as the original and it's off spring, Alpha and Delta, yes they refer to virus variants in genealogy terms, it might be a new Coronavirus and like the common cold exists alongside other viruses.


But that is now the most probable theory that it originated and replicated within a single host who was immuno compromised, it did not evolve from delta at all but from the original corona virus that was circulating 18 months ago. The reason why the single host theory is at the forefront is because there has to be an explanation as to why this variant only circulating now and not earlier given that it is genetically similar to original corona virus and is highly transmissible.
As for not having 100% facts on this we still don't know where the original corona virus came from in China. Getting hard facts on anything covid related is almost impossible now. Surely it would be highly improbable that a brand new corona virus made the species jump in Africa completely independent of the original Wuhan one. It has to be the case that it is the original Wuhan virus given that South Africa was also hit hard during the initial corona wave 18months ago


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