# Open Championship



## Firefly (18 Jul 2012)

The highlight of the golfing year, IMO, is almost upon us. To whet your appetite take a look at this for sheer class:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w86X4wjjhw 

Who will lift the Claret jug on Sunday? Will it be a relatively-unknown American, a former great, a hot, young gun or will master Woods return to glory? One things for sure....the wall to wall coverage on the Beeb will have us all dreaming of golf for weeks to come.

OK..a bit pedantic there, but I can't wait...













C'mon Podge!!!!!


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## Sunny (18 Jul 2012)

Yeah, it's great isn't it. Mentioned it to my girlfriend last night. She didn't seem to share my excitement.


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## Shawady (18 Jul 2012)

Harrington has showed some form in the two majors this year and conditions might suit him.
I thought Soren Kleldsen was unluky in the Scottish Open last week. He could be worth an each-way bet.


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## Firefly (18 Jul 2012)

Sunny said:


> Yeah, it's great isn't it. Mentioned it to my girlfriend last night. She didn't seem to share my excitement.


 
Think I have finally cracked that one with Mrs. Firefly. It all started about 6 years ago when she came home on the first Thursday in April to find a shiny, new flatscreen assembled in the middle of the sittingroom with the cardboard box in pieces from being ripped apart in excitement. 3 hours later she conceeded that the Masters was "pretty good alright". I just smiled and said "WAIT until you see The Open"


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## TarfHead (18 Jul 2012)

I've no time for golf but think betting on it is a mugs game. Over the past 10 years, some of the Majors have been won by golfers who could not have been identified beforehand as prospects.

Some of those have not built on that level of success, i.e. one tournament wonders.

The prospective winner for this weekend's Open could come from a group of more than 10 players, and could be won by someone outside of that group. The game could do with someone like Tiger Woods in his prime to provide a focal point.


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## Firefly (18 Jul 2012)

TarfHead said:


> The prospective winner for this weekend's Open could come from a group of more than 10 players, and could be won by someone outside of that group.


 
+1. Very difficult to pick a winner. e/w bets are probably the best way to win a few bob. 

Even though I don't think he's the best around the green I think Westwood should be in with a shout this weekend as the emphasis seems to be getting to the green in the first place with all those bunkers...Still be shouting for Harrington tho!


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## DB74 (19 Jul 2012)

TarfHead said:


> I've no time for golf but think betting on it is a mugs game.



Not if you know what you are doing. I was following a golf tipster from April-June and putting €2 on each of his selections (usually 2-3 per tournament per week). In that period I had a profit of over €130 from those €2 bets. Sadly all the freebies are gone now and he is subscription only and the fee is too rich for me. Also Steve Palmer, the Racing Post's resident golf tipster is something like €200 up since January, using €1 stakes.

I'm not saying it's easy cos it's not (golf would be my biggest loser in betting terms) but it certainly is do-able

I've backed

Harrington 20/1
McDowell 35/1
Fowler 40/1
Moliniari 45/1
Dufner 55/1
Furyk 55/1

all win-only

The each-way part of golf betting can be very punitive when it comes to dead-heats for the last couple of places. Your return can be decimated if your golfer is tied for, say 5th spot with 2-3 other guys

IMO you're better off sticking with win-only if you're going to back a good few guys but I would have no problem betting each-way if you were only backing 1-2 golfers


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## Firefly (19 Jul 2012)

DB74 said:


> I've backed
> 
> Harrington 20/1
> McDowell 35/1
> ...


 
The problem with this approach, as far as I can see, is that by backing 6 different players to win is that you are essentially cutting your potential winnings in each by a third - let me try to explain. If you bet a euro on each, then if Harrington comes in you will win 20 euro minue the 6 you have put in. In that case you are really getting Harrington at 3/1 right up to Furyk at 9/1 (55/6) which doesn't look as attractive. I could have this all wrong but that's what it looks like to me...


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## Ceist Beag (19 Jul 2012)

Already looks like this could turn into quite a shootout. Tiger Woods, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott and Graeme McDowell all leading the way - 3 former major winners and one who has come close a lot of times. Should be a good 4 days!


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## DB74 (19 Jul 2012)

Firefly said:


> The problem with this approach, as far as I can see, is that by backing 6 different players to win is that you are essentially cutting your potential winnings in each by a third - let me try to explain. If you bet a euro on each, then if Harrington comes in you will win 20 euro minue the 6 you have put in. In that case you are really getting Harrington at 3/1 right up to Furyk at 9/1 (55/6) which doesn't look as attractive. I could have this all wrong but that's what it looks like to me...



Absolutely but at the end of the day, profit is the name of the game.

Each to their own however


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## Firefly (19 Jul 2012)

Ceist Beag said:


> Already looks like this could turn into quite a shootout. Tiger Woods, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott and Graeme McDowell all leading the way - 3 former major winners and one who has come close a lot of times. Should be a good 4 days!


 

Don't forget Paul Lawrie who's going nicely too


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## MrMan (19 Jul 2012)

My wife said to me that she could win the open this year, but I said 'Your handy with an iron alright, but your drivings crap'..


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## Firefly (19 Jul 2012)

MrMan said:


> My wife said to me that she could win the open this year, but I said 'Your handy with an iron alright, but your drivings crap'..


 

What's her grip like?


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## DB74 (19 Jul 2012)

firefly said:


> what's her grip like?



lol


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## TarfHead (20 Jul 2012)

DB74 said:


> Absolutely but at the end of the day, profit is the name of the game.
> 
> Each to their own however


 
I prefer to put my lucky fiver on outcomes that are more predictable. Like Kilkenny romping to yet another Leinster Championship.


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## bazermc (20 Jul 2012)

I keep on hearing this reference to the G mac!  Who is he and what has he got to do with golf!  he sounds like a type of razor blade!!!!


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## Ceist Beag (20 Jul 2012)

is none other than our very own Graeme McDowell! The accent is a bit strange - US/Norn Iron but sounds like neither! But all round nice guy and right in the mix for the weekend.


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## Shawady (23 Jul 2012)

TarfHead said:


> I prefer to put my lucky fiver on outcomes that are more predictable.


 
Come on. That open was pretty predictable


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## Firefly (23 Jul 2012)

Tough for Adam Scott. Imploding so publicly can't be easy, but will be a good test of his resolve..just look at how Rory came back from his Augusta blow-out to win the US Open. Great gold from Els though. A play-off would have been fair IMO. Back is in pieces though from all the tele!


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## TarfHead (23 Jul 2012)

Apparently, Irish Times golf correspondent Philip Reid tipped Els at 50/1 before the tournament. I wonder how many followed that suggestion ?


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## DerKaiser (23 Jul 2012)

Firefly said:


> Tough for Adam Scott. Imploding so publicly can't be easy, but will be a good test of his resolve..just look at how Rory came back from his Augusta blow-out to win the US Open. Great gold from Els though. A play-off would have been fair IMO. Back is in pieces though from all the tele!


 
I think imploding is a pretty strong word for what happened to him.

He was playing steadier than almost everyone but not making the birdie chances he was creating over the first 12/13 holes.

The close in putt that lipped out was serious bad fortune. Finding the bunker on the 18th was 'par for the course' if you'll pardon the pun and he did exceptionally well to get back with a chance of par after that.

If you looked around G-Mac, Tiger & Snedeker (all top 5 finishers) were all enduring the same woes.

A 75 on a windy day when only 9 players break par is very different from an 80 in perfect conditions (McIlroy at Augusta last year) or a triple bogey on the last when you're 3 clear (Van De Velde in the 99 Open).


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## Liamos (23 Jul 2012)

DerKaiser said:


> I think imploding is a pretty strong word for what happened to him.
> 
> He was playing steadier than almost everyone but not making the birdie chances he was creating over the first 12/13 holes.
> 
> ...


 
I think bogeying the final 4 holes when you are 4 shots clear comes under the heading of imploding.


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## DerKaiser (23 Jul 2012)

Liamos said:


> I think bogeying the final 4 holes when you are 4 shots clear comes under the heading of imploding.


 
It obviously looks like it on paper, particularly beacuse they were the final holes, and all the reports are calling it an implosion.

The nature of the shots he dropped weren't hugely dramatic though, a lipped out putt and a fairway bunker for example. Conceding 5 shots to your nearest rival over the last 4 holes is obviously dramatic but there were no dramatic mistakes. Tiger (triple bogey) and G-Mac (topping a ball into the bushes during a similar run of bogeys to Scott) were far more dramatic mistakes.


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## Firefly (23 Jul 2012)

Liamos said:


> I think bogeying the final 4 holes when you are 4 shots clear comes under the heading of imploding.


 
..especially when he had been playing so well for the previous 3 1/2 rounds. The early signs were on the first but he re-bounded with a nice birdie on the 2nd hole.


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## Ceist Beag (23 Jul 2012)

People love using dramatic terms to describe events like yesterday but I'm with Der Kaiser on this, there was no implosion or choking by Scott yesterday. As he said himself he just hit some bad shots on those holes and that golf course can be cruel when you make a mistake. I'm sure he'll take a much more pragmatic view of the weekend than to beat himself up over any "implosion". This wasn't a Jean van de Velde or Rory McIlroy scenario.


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## Liamos (23 Jul 2012)

Ceist Beag said:


> People love using dramatic terms to describe events like yesterday but I'm with Der Kaiser on this, there was no implosion or choking by Scott yesterday. As he said himself he just hit some bad shots on those holes and that golf course can be cruel when you make a mistake. I'm sure he'll take a much more pragmatic view of the weekend than to beat himself up over any "implosion". This wasn't a Jean van de Velde or Rory McIlroy scenario.


 
No, it certainly wasn't in the same league as Van de Velde. I think that was the worst collapse of all.

You say it wasn't a choke, that he just hit some bad shots. But you have to ask yourself why did he hit some bad shots?

The logical answer is he saw the finish line, he was about to win his first major, and he couldn't cope with the pressure.


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## Ceist Beag (23 Jul 2012)

The only case of nerves I saw from Scott was on 16 with those bad putts. The bogey on 15 was pretty normal yesterday (it was the hardest hole on the course all day) and 17 was the third hardest hole all day. 18 was probably a bad call off the tee but his third was gutsy and definitely not the shot of someone cracking under the pressure.


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## Tintagel (24 Jul 2012)

Els was due a decent birdie. He came close to a few during his round but they just didn't happen.


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