# When, under what circumstances, will the lockdown end.



## cremeegg (3 Apr 2020)

No where can I see any suggestions as to what circumstances might bring about the end of the lockdown. Does anyone on here have any ideas? Or have you seen anything to indicate what might be an acceptable end point.


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Apr 2020)

I think it will be a gradual relaxation of restrictions. 

When the numbers of new cases fall to very low levels, they will stop the cocooning and 2 km rule. 

But it will be a while before we are all swilling pints in pubs.

Brendan


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## losttheplot (3 Apr 2020)

Is it the more we flatten the curve the wider it gets.


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## Brendan Burgess (3 Apr 2020)

If we flatten the curve, it lasts longer. 

One strategy was not to intervene and let it infect lots of people and we would develop herd immunity.

Brendan


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## moneymakeover (3 Apr 2020)

We can look into the future by looking at Wuhan, Beijing, Italy and Spain


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## Watcher (4 Apr 2020)

In my opinion... Lockdown will be in phases over the next months. While infection rates are still rising it would be madness to ease restrictions.
BUT, when infection rates plateau and start to decrease we will see easing of measures like in the Asian countries which are seeing same dips.
Massive testing needs to happen and results of monitoring  will be the driver. 
I think we will be in intermittent lock down for quite some time... until we have a vaccine / herd immunity / cure how else should we progress?
Until the transmission rate is below 1, we cannot live as we used to... 
Anyone thinking schools etc will be back to normal in September...... cant happen without some Golden bullet of a vaccine / cure... and by best estimates that's not coming until second half of 2021


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## Paul O Mahoney (4 Apr 2020)

We probably need to somehow get an accurate idea of immunity within the population. Of course that will require antibody testing of a considerable section of the population and then all the admin associated with that, including data protection to name one hurdle. 
Vaccine is 18 months away but there is considerable work being done to try and make the virus less potent?????, apparently this is being done by companies who are in the vaccine sphere. 
Getting back to "normal " isn't going to happen, imho, we have seen that not having basic medical tools or the ability to produce them in country has helped the virus to kill many, overwhelme countries health systems in a matter of days/ weeks .
Globalization is going to be examined in detail its perceived advantages are known but its disadvantages are becoming more known on a daily basis.
Personally  I hope humanity has a look in the mirror and realises that we can't continue on the path we are presently on.......
Nature seems to be telling us a lot perhaps it's time to listen.....


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## DeeKie (4 Apr 2020)

If they start doing the different test that shows you had it will they start releasing those people from the restrictions


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## SPC100 (4 Apr 2020)

Restrictions will loosen when the medical system is no longer in danger of being overran. I.e. new infections are low and ICU spare capacity is high

And then as spread increases again they will retighten restrictions. This will go on until an effective treatment, vaccine, or enough of the population had been infected, or maybe a cheap reliable 15 minute test is available.

They might lift restrictions on some groups, regions, industries to try and maximise social and economic good while controlling new spreads. They might rotate restrictions though groups.

Older people likely to have strong restrictions for long time yet


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## Leo (5 Apr 2020)

Paul O Mahoney said:


> Vaccine is 18 months away but there is considerable work being done to try and make the virus less potent?????, apparently this is being done by companies who are in the vaccine sphere.



The thinking is vaccine is likely to be more like 12 months away. You can't make a virus less potent, but therapeutics can lessen the severity of symptoms. 



Paul O Mahoney said:


> Globalization is going to be examined in detail its perceived advantages are known but its disadvantages are becoming more known on a daily basis.



You mean bring on more globalisation and stop the wet markets in corners of the world that haven't embraced it?


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## Leper (5 Apr 2020)

moneymakeover said:


> We can look into the future by looking at Wuhan, Beijing, Italy and Spain



Such is my faith in the political system of China that if they told me Christmas Day falls on 25th December, I'd check the calendar. It is a police state with armed police, army and secret service roaming around as vain popstars like there was  going to be another peoples' revolution within an hour. If they could have got away with not informing the world of what was happening in Wuhan, they would.

Italy and Spain, well what can I say? Two governments that if they had four aces in a game of poker somehow they would still manage to lose. The warnings were there and not only did they fail to heed them, they actually assisted in the spread of Covid-19. Then we have Donald Trump - the least said about this Covid-19 incompetent the better. I ain't the greatest prophet, but I can see that the UK also got it wrong and somewhat changed some course when it realised the error of its ways. And still they all can learn more from us. (And I haven't even mentioned France yet).

I don't know when this crisis will end. But, I feel safer listening to the Irish government and its advisors than those elsewhere. If I were influential in the governments of Italy, Spain, USA, UK and elsewhere I'd be looking towards Ireland for guidance and doing what is done here. I don't know how long it will take to get Ireland Ltd up and running again, but I'm prepared to wait.


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## Drakon (6 Apr 2020)

I’d say the lockdown will have to be tightened. It seems there were many Irish out enjoying the fine weather on Saturday. 
With a BHW on the way, it wouldn’t surprise me if there was an announcement on Thursday evening. 
This voluntary lockdown is working for most people, but not all. It’ll probably depend on how close the R0 is to 1.
Twice last week I drove about 7 km from my house, to and from a laundrette. I was blasé about the lockdown, but as I’ve had the virus and recovered I can’t hurt anyone. The roads and footpaths were fairly quiet but far from deserted. The Gardai were our but I didn’t see them stopping anyone

I’ve a friend living in Italy so I know the difference between their lockdown and ours, and that the current lockdown can be tightened. 
Over there you must print off a permission slip before leaving home and carry it with you. The police can and will stop you. If they’re not satisfied you’ll get a €230 fine. 
Our Leo Lockdown is nothing like this.
To conclude, I’d expect the lockdown to be phased out in stages, but before that happens, I’d expect a tighter lockdown to be phased in first. 
I selfishly hope that we introduce immunity passports like are being proposed in other countries.


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## Ceist Beag (6 Apr 2020)

Denmark are reportedly ready to relax restrictions somewhat this week due to a drop in numbers. They are probably a good marker for us to monitor. It does seem very early for them to be relaxing restrictions I feel but let's see how they get on.


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## Drakon (6 Apr 2020)

I’d say they’re looking over The Sound to Sweden and second-thinking their approach.


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## Purple (6 Apr 2020)

We'll need far more testing, and the resulting hard data, before we can make a call on when the restrictions will be lifted.


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## Leo (6 Apr 2020)

All restrictions can really only be lifted once an effective vaccine is distributed across the majority of the population, or until herd immunity is achieved.  
It may be possible to work out a range for the duration of restrictions based on rate of infections requiring ICU care, ICU capacity & turn-around time, with the goal being to ensure ICU facilities aren't overwhelmed, and maintain a rate of transmission that results in broad immunity.


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## Fidgety (6 Apr 2020)

In France, they're discussing a partial return to work at the end of May, maybe sooner, where the workforce in SME's in particular is split between a morning and afternoon shift to enable more spacing in confined spaces.


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## Purple (6 Apr 2020)

They can talk all they like but with the lack of data at this stage it's just conjecture.

I sometimes talk with friends about what I'd do if I won the Euromillions. That doesn't mean I will win it.


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## Drakon (6 Apr 2020)

Denmark is thinking of easing restrictions after the Easter weekend. It’s an economic decision.


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## odyssey06 (6 Apr 2020)

Spain wants to expand testing to general populace, even without symptoms, to gauge de-escalation strategy.








						Spain to widen testing for Covid-19 as death rate drops
					

Spain is planning to widen coronavirus testing to include people without symptoms as a first step towards slowly easing a lockdown in the nation with the second highest death toll from the global pandemic.




					www.rte.ie


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## odyssey06 (9 Apr 2020)

_Hopefully some of the findings below will have general applicability._

Germany will be the first country in the world to carry out large-scale antibody testing for coronavirus, which will help show how many people are now immune to the disease. 





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com


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## Drakon (9 Apr 2020)

Good news. There’s been talk of issuing immunity passports there. Hopefully we’ll follow soon.


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## moneymakeover (10 Apr 2020)

Anyone care to speculate when restrictions will relax to allow flights to Spain/Portugal?

For holidays eg apartments/hotels

This holiday season?


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## Leo (10 Apr 2020)

moneymakeover said:


> Anyone care to speculate when restrictions will relax to allow flights to Spain/Portugal?



Just my sense of it, but I can't see full travel being allowed before the end of the summer.


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## joer (10 Apr 2020)

And it seems that there are people coming to Ireland from abroad . Mainly , according to reports, from Britain to their holiday homes in Ireland. How is that allowed to happen either by the powers that be in Britain as in people travelling distances or the Irish Gardai allowing them in. They should be told to return from wherever they came from. Considering  the Covid 19 numbers are increasing there so much how are they travelling and our people here cannot I dont think that it is just Britain by the way. I agree that we Irish should not be travelling by the way. As far as i know also there are still flights landing in Irish airports bringing people from Europe . Where is the logic?


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## johnwilliams (10 Apr 2020)

joer your right they should be put into mandatory not self quarantine (curragh camp maybe?)


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## john luc (10 Apr 2020)

absolutely they should.all the good effort here could be ruined


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## odyssey06 (16 Apr 2020)

This is an Australian article but we face many of the same challenges here on the options to come out of the lockdown:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/the-decision-australia-needs-to-make-on-how-we-end-the-coronavirus-epidemic/news-story/88e6a199e8e55c4730f3a5f271c3c34a?fbclid=IwAR0MylA02O8Lz4eCtLp8fWw5cpFMuA39CQkb5ETpRVWybaiLuEqEnirDv9M#.qkops


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## Sophrosyne (16 Apr 2020)

Jack Lambert, professor in Infectious Diseases at the Mater and Rotunda hospitals and UCD school of medicine has warned against the lifting of restrictions in relation to Covid-19.

*Public hygiene facilities 'an embarrassment' and need to be improved to fight Covid-19, expert says*

"I've walked around time going to and from work and other situations...It's an embarrassment the kind of facilities that are there," he said.

"People are doing what they can, but is it the responsibility of a little shop to ensure they have all the hand sanitisers and so on in place?

"They need directions, supervisions and support. None of that's in place."

Post offices were doing “absolutely nothing” with no hand sanitizer, doors that had to be pushed to open. How can you lift the lockdown when you don’t have plans in place for that,” he added.

Efforts by Dublin Bike to clean handlebars with baby wipes were not good enough, he said. “They need to do better, baby wipes are not good enough.”

The situation in nursing homes was chaotic, he said. There needed to be better testing, better education about PPE and more PPE.

Plans for nursing homes should have been developed two to three weeks ago, he said.


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## Sunny (16 Apr 2020)

Are these professors like the economists in the financial crisis who spend their time doing the media rounds questioning everything. They seem to be coming out of the woodwork with their views. Wonder how many of them are just peeved that they are on the sidelines looking in...I am sure the professor in Infectious Diseases at the Mater and Rotunda hospitals and UCD school of medicine knows what he is talking about but I don't think the people making these decisions are any less qualified.


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## Purple (16 Apr 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> Jack Lambert, professor in Infectious Diseases at the Mater and Rotunda hospitals and UCD school of medicine has warned against the lifting of restrictions in relation to Covid-19.
> 
> *Public hygiene facilities 'an embarrassment' and need to be improved to fight Covid-19, expert says*
> 
> ...


Easy for him to say. He lives in a world where someone else pays the bill for decisions he makes. 
The people who have to actually put plans in place have to live in the real world where every country in that world is competing for a limited supply of tests and reagent, PPE, hand sanitizer and medical equipment.  
Does he think that every door in every post office should, or can, be replaced with automatic doors? Is he serious?
If I was renting aa Dublin Bike I'd sanitize the handlebars myself. 
Who does he think is going to do the supervision of the shops etc? Is there am army of trained people knocking about that the rest of u are not aware of?


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## Leo (16 Apr 2020)

Sophrosyne said:


> The situation in nursing homes was chaotic, he said. There needed to be better testing, better education about PPE and more PPE.



Aren't most of these private companies that charge lots of money for their services with professional standards they must adhere to? They still need education on PPE?

With regard to the bikes, do we want a nanny state overseeing every little aspect of our lives or hope that people to take some personal responsibility? Expecting Dublin Bikes to sanitise the bars after each use is like expecting every means of public transport, every business, every public office, etc., to have enough staff on site to follow customers around and sanitise every single thing they touch. It's just not viable at any scale.


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## seamus m (16 Apr 2020)

Going on today's briefing it looks like we are aiming to try to at least partially reopen come may 5 as long as figures stay on same trajectory as last week.


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## sceach (17 Apr 2020)

What do people think partial re-open looks like? I must say I find it hard to see the journey between partial re-open and full BAU.
Do you think a preferred plan is to re-open and take some economic bump from the tourism season at a risk of a second wave, or sacrifice the tourism season to maintain low infection rates?


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## Eireog007 (17 Apr 2020)

The most likely way it will happen is the reverse on how things were tightened up initially, most people allowed back to work with the emphasis on working from home wherever possible, restaurants and cafes re opened with an emphasis on social distancing as much as feasible. Pubs and schools are a much tougher ask. I think every school child below leaving cert are done until September which would allow leaving cert students more room to social distance etc.


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## Leo (17 Apr 2020)

Vast majority where I work are now working remotely, but the company have confirmed they will not allow full BAU until vaccination is complete. They're looking at reconfiguring offices to handle a scaled return for those who most need to be in the office to facilitate distancing, and believe that scaled operation will take 18+ months.


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## joer (17 Apr 2020)

The worrying thing is that no one knows when this virus will ease enough to enable even a partial easing of any lockdown measures.


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## sceach (17 Apr 2020)

I definitely agree that schools are a challenge, I know we are coming close to summer holidays anyway but we were just talking at home this week comparing last year when we would have been enrolling the children in all sorts of summer camps. If these aren't open and available I think a lot of working parents would struggle to find alternative "child care" so perhaps working from home where possible continues to be the only option.


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## Purple (17 Apr 2020)

I have to say in many ways  I'm loving the lockdown. We have to stay open in work as we are a critical service. I'm cycling into work again and there is no traffic. People are friendlier when you pass them in the street. Even the weather is great. I know that's looking at it from a totally selfish perspective and I do miss family and friends and general social contact but the traffic...
The kids are hating it. They are bored out of their minds. Not bored enough to clean the house properly or have the dinner made when I get home but they actually miss school; that's how bad it is. I agree that the schools, with the exception of 6th year, will almost certainly not open until September.


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## Wahaay (17 Apr 2020)

Purple said:


> They can talk all they like but with the lack of data at this stage it's just conjecture.
> 
> I sometimes talk with friends about what I'd do if I won the Euromillions. That doesn't mean I will win it.



I agree.
Until the data shows it's safe for people to leave their homes and go about their business as they did before without endangering themselves why risk it ?


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