# World Cup "Investments"



## TheBigShort (14 Jun 2018)

Despite the dire quality of both Russia and SA (I think Ireland would give either a match), I have taken a position at h/t @2.38 for there to be over 3.5 goals in the opening game.


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## TheBigShort (14 Jun 2018)

One more needed.


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## TheBigShort (14 Jun 2018)

Ka-ching! 

Egypt v Uruguay tomorrow. I will Lay 'The Draw' @ 3.8.


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## Delboy (14 Jun 2018)

Suarez for top scorer. He could do real damage to that SA defence


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## TheBigShort (15 Jun 2018)

Absolutely, certainly worth considering for a hat-trick, or more in that game alone. That performance by SA was one of the worst I've seen at this level for a long-time. They are pacey, with good close passing but totally inept at defending, aggression, counter, or any sort of structured plan. A tough South American side like Uruguay will eat them for breakfast unless something dramatic occurs.


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## Deiseblue (15 Jun 2018)

Cavani could feasibly be a bigger threat to SA who were appalling in dealing with crosses.


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## Firefly (15 Jun 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Despite the dire quality of both Russia and SA (I think Ireland would give either a match), I have taken a position at h/t @2.38 for there to be over 3.5 goals in the opening game.


Hi,

Pardon my ignorance, but what does @2.38 refer to? Also, Shouldn't that be over 3 goals as it's kinda impossible to score half a goal?
Well done in any case. 

I see Bitcoin is down to USD6.5k, so maybe a good time to spend the winnings?


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Jun 2018)

Firefly said:


> Hi,
> 
> Pardon my ignorance, but what does @2.38 refer to? Also, Shouldn't that be over 3 goals as it's kinda impossible to score half a goal?
> Well done in any case.
> ...


Ahhh! you're not a punter _Fly_.  If you bet 1 bitcoin at 2.38 and you are right you will get back 2.38 bitcoins, i.e. you will win 1.38.  Alternatively referred to as odds of 1.38 to 1.  

Betfair bet on "over 3.5" versus "under 3.5" goals.  It is slightly easier than saying "over 3" and "under or equal to 3" though they could have said "over 3" and "under 4" but the 3.5 is a standard way that the betting community describe these sort of bets.

Draw not looking a good lay at 3.8, now 2.5

It went to 1.3 with 2 mins left.  Squeaky b*m stuff B/S


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## Deiseblue (15 Jun 2018)

Suarez has had an absolute nightmare so far today


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## TheBigShort (15 Jun 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> It went to 1.3 with 2 mins left. Squeaky b*m stuff B/S



Phew! That was close, 2 out of 2, good start to my World Cup. 

I know nothing about Morocco, or Iran (other than Iran being surrounded by US military bases for the coming apocalypse ). So any "investment" is total speculation.
That said, the market is selling a 0-0 draw at 6.0 (thats 5/1 to you Firefly). That is an extremely low price for 0-0 and indicates that the market does not expect many goals in this game. 
So not being one to follow markets im Laying 0-0 @ 6.0 on the notion that 0-0's are getting harder to come by these days and all I need to win is one goal scored for either side.


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## TheBigShort (15 Jun 2018)

Not looking good for me on the hour mark...im a great believer in freak goals, penalties, own goals and fatigue to save the day!


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Jun 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Not looking good for me on the hour mark...im a great believer in freak goals, penalties, own goals and fatigue to save the day!


 0-0 down to 1.11


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## TheBigShort (15 Jun 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> 0-0 down to 1.11



Gooaaaal!!! Iiiirrraaaaaannn!!!! 

3 out of 3....love those freak own goals!


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## TheBigShort (15 Jun 2018)

Portugal v Spain.

This is tricky to find an investment. Spain are favourites, but my inkling suggests Portugal. Opening game that neither side will risk too much? 
That said, not wanting to risk would be typically defined as getting the first goal and then defending the lead. 
Going to Lay the 0-0 again, this time @9.0.


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## TheBigShort (15 Jun 2018)

4 out 4. Investing my early winnings in this game to back 4.5 goals @3.75. (1-1 at the moment)
A bit risky as the pace will hardly last but both teams going for it.


**
Cashed out while still 1-1 taking a 35% loss on earlier gain. This bet was over exuberance on my part.

4 out 5.


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## TheBigShort (15 Jun 2018)

Doh! 2-1 Portugal!

Backing the Portugal win now @1.96, following my earlier inkling.


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## odyssey06 (15 Jun 2018)

Yes! Wearing my Man Utd jersey, this makes it less likely one of the big Spanish sides will poach De gea!


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Jun 2018)

great match


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## Vanessa (15 Jun 2018)

Got Ronaldo to score first and then hit again to score next after Spain scored. Woo hoo!


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## odyssey06 (15 Jun 2018)

un-Real


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## Deiseblue (15 Jun 2018)

And thats why Association football is the best game in the World.
Brilliant, brilliant game.


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## Duke of Marmalade (15 Jun 2018)

You have to feel sorry for England


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## TheBigShort (15 Jun 2018)

Great game, Day 2 and overall the indicators are for an entertaining WC. 
Hopefully the nice weather returns and I might earn a few €€€ along the way to enjoy some unscheduled 7pm ko's in the local


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## TheBigShort (15 Jun 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> You have to feel sorry for England



Is this the first WC since 1966 that the English press are _not _expecting England to win the WC? 
Imagine, an England team without the weight of the usual tabloid hyperbole frenzy!


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## odyssey06 (15 Jun 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Is this the first WC since 1966 that the English press are _not _expecting England to win the WC?
> Imagine, an England team without the weight of the usual tabloid hyperbole frenzy!



I don't think much was expected last time round either.
I think 2010 World Cup deflated a lot of expectations, they lost 4-1 to Germany and England were just chasing shadows.

Am looking forward to England v Belgium though, should be interesting as long it's not a dead rubber draw sends both teams through kinda game.


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

Hard to see anything other than a straight win for France. Backing France to win @1.29, easy money.
Or is there a shock on the cards?

Backing the draw at h/t @3.20

And over 2.5 goals @1.66


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Backing the draw at h/t @3.20



Fathers Day lunch and pints secured!


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## odyssey06 (16 Jun 2018)

In real time I really didnt think the foul on Griezmann was a penalty but I can see why VAR gave it.


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

Watching IRE v AUS in rugby. By all accounts Fra unimpressive? Cashing out my win bet now, securing three winning bets in this game!


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## Deiseblue (16 Jun 2018)

Griezman & Dembele subbed which is a reflection of how well the Aussie defence coped.
The winner was extremely fortuitous, Australia would have fully merited a draw


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

ARG V ICE
7 out 9 predictions correct so far.

Intriguing game this. Have Iceland progressed, developed since the Euro's? Or will Messi live up to his billing as one of the great players and set WC alight? 


Under 2.5 goals @2.12


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

Laying 0-0 @ 15.00. 
I would be amazed if there isnt a goal in this game.


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

Looking ominous for Iceland already, Messi on top form going for over 5.5goals @ 11.00.


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## joe sod (16 Jun 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Is this the first WC since 1966 that the English press are _not _expecting England to win the WC?
> 
> Imagine, an England team without the weight of the usual tabloid hyperbole frenzy!





yea its true, they dont have any celebrity players anymore, no david beckhams, wayne rooneys or gazza's. Also the papers have to go back to 2006 to drool over the "wags" from that time, no victoria beckhams and colleen rooneys with the over sized sunglasses, no celebrity nightclubs for them to fall out of either at 4am.


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

Terrific atmosphere at this game. Could go either way. A small punt on Iceland win @9.6 is surely worth taking?

ICE to win @9.6


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

8 out 13 predictions correct. A reminder to self, stick to punts set at outset!


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

Peru v Denmark

Laying the Draw @ 3.2
Laying 0-0 @ 7.00


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

I have little confidence of Denmark holding out for the win. Cashing out profits


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

10 out of 15 predictions paying out for me


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

CRO v NIG 

Croatia hot favourites, but Nigeria are battlers. Low-scoring, tentative game. Fatigue to play a big factor in the outcome after 70mins. 

Going for the outsiders here.

Nigeria to win @6.6


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## Duke of Marmalade (16 Jun 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> CRO v NIG
> 
> Croatia hot favourites, but Nigeria are battlers. Low-scoring, tentative game. Fatigue to play a big factor in the outcome after 70mins.
> 
> ...


Still listening, enjoying the updates.  Perhaps at the end you can tell us how many bitcoin you won


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Still listening, enjoying the updates.  Perhaps at the end you can tell us how many bitcoin you won



Betting with Bitcoin? That would be criminal. Nothing more than a money laundering, ponzi scheming, tax evasion racket!

Money laundering and tax evasion with fiat currency much more virtuous by far!! 
Just look at a very recent €18m tax settlement by one of the world's richest sports stars. 
A once-off no doubt!  , oh wait...his nemesis in Barca was caught too!

Regardless...it was fiat, so thats OK!! 

GOAL! 

1-0 Croatia...you are bursting my Mo-Jo


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

Small top-up on Nigeria @26.00. 

Banking on the equaliser with the a cash out option.


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## TheBigShort (16 Jun 2018)

10 out 17 right. Still up financially, just about!
No more messing, looking forward to day 4 and start "investing" proper


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## TheBigShort (17 Jun 2018)

COSTA RICA v SERBIA - Im avoiding this one.

GERM V MEX - Draw is an option? But will plump for the Gerrys to prevail @ 1.46

BRA V SWITZ - Can only relish the prospect of watching the Brazilians if they perform to their capabilities. Straight forward win @ 1.45


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## Duke of Marmalade (17 Jun 2018)

I see that for even a mickey mouse match like CR v Serbia Betfair has matched more than €20m.  Compare that with the "Bitcoin End 2018 Price" market which has been running for about 6 months and hasn't reached €200K yet.


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## Firefly (17 Jun 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Ahhh! you're not a punter _Fly_.



Still don't get it I'm afraid, which is probably a good thing!


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## TheBigShort (17 Jun 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> mickey mouse match like CR v Serbia



Tell that to Costa Ricans and Serbians! Perhaps his Dukiness thinks the centre of the world revolves somewhere close to him?  

What the connect is between the World Cup and Bitcoin price at end 2018 is anyones guess! 

In the meantime, winnings from first game loading onto Brazil to help salvage some of the wreckage inflicted by the Mexicans!


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## Duke of Marmalade (17 Jun 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> What the connect is between the World Cup and Bitcoin price at end 2018 is anyones guess!


There is no connection, so don't even guess.  I thought it was interesting though that a speculation which for some time consumed many on this forum, including your good self, has got on the Betfair stage in six months 1% of the interest compared to what a match between Costa Rica and Serbia has got in 90 minutes.

I was only indicating that such an opening group match is not really to be compared with a final between say Spain and Brazil.  No offence was intended to the good people of those countries by the Disney reference; anyway I suspect they wouldn't be in the least bit concerned with the duke's comments unlike the PC brigade who would be wanting to hang him out to dry for such blatant racism


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## TheBigShort (17 Jun 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I thought it was interesting though that a speculation which for some time consumed many on this forum, including your good self, has got on the Betfair stage in six months 1% of the interest compared to what a match between Costa Rica and Serbia has got in 90 minutes.



Two completely different phenomena.
 Take for instance the interest in this topic on the WC compared to the input on Bitcoin. 
If it wasn't for your goodself id be getting the impression I am talking to myself! ( Notwithstanding that Firefly is keeping a beady eye on things ). 

15mins to KO. Hope it delivers.


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## odyssey06 (17 Jun 2018)

That Mexican goal was a perfect execution of a counter attack.


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## Leper (17 Jun 2018)

I am reading this thread with some interest as I bet a few bob regularly for fun and  keep an account of all my "investments." My horse racing returns are pretty drastic, but I enjoy the sport. My football coupon gambling is not good either. My golf predicting fares probably worse than any. My hurling predictions give the occasional good return and I am not losing too much. I am not a Gaelic Football big fan and ironically for the past few years I have gained good profit especially in the first and second periods of the playoffs where teams having lost their first game face each other in a knock-out game. I bet accumulators (usually 8 games with accumulative odds @ over 15/1) on my predictions and am glad to say this year I am surprised with the amount of my profit todate. All thanks to the World Cup and some obvious winning GAA results.

This year (because of interest in the World Cup) odds are better in Gaelic Football and I'm a little more better off than in previous years. The bookies have to attract punters and with the hype of the WC the like of Gaelic Football bets are relatively few. Bookies need punters so they lay better odds. The WC is the glamour competition of the year. We can see the "cashing out" options, some of the poxy draws and Mexico beating Germany, Switzerland and the great Brazil in a draw etc. I reckon as the tournament continues we will see superstar players not risking injury, suffering loony trauma because of bad misses or disappointment in their latest tattoos or stupid hairdos.

But,, a few bob is there for the taking. Think Gaelic Football for the next week or so. In my time I used to work for an on-course bookie and I am not stupid enough to think easy profits are readily available. But, Gaelic Football is turning out the easiest profit for sensible punters.


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## Ceist Beag (18 Jun 2018)

Being a bit of a killjoy here but this thread really shows me how successful bookies have been in this country. Personally I think it's really sad when people tune in to sporting events purely for profit making and can't enjoy the match for what it is, but rather keep checking for in game betting options. Is it any wonder we're ranked as one of the biggest gambling nations in the world.


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## odyssey06 (18 Jun 2018)

Ceist Beag said:


> Being a bit of a killjoy here but this thread really shows me how successful bookies have been in this country. Personally I think it's really sad when people tune in to sporting events purely for profit making and can't enjoy the match for what it is, but rather keep checking for in game betting options. Is it any wonder we're ranked as one of the biggest gambling nations in the world.



For me it wouldn't be purely for profit. Sport is to a large extent about partiality, and having something small riding on the game between say Serbia and Costa Rica means you have 'a dog in the fight'. It actually enhances your interest in the game. As I've picked Griezmann to be top scorer, the adrenalin was flowing when he stepped up to take the penalty for France.
For something like Spain v Portugal as a neutral I enjoyed that game but they are two of the top teams in world football.

If partiality wasn't a factor in sport, then if Ireland has qualified, we shouldn't expect viewing figures to be any higher for their games than say that of Switzerland.

I don't think we are one of the biggest gambling nations in the world. I think ours is done in public view and tracked. In a lot of countries it happens in illegal black markets.


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## TheBigShort (18 Jun 2018)

Ceist Beag said:


> Being a bit of a killjoy here but this thread really shows me how successful bookies have been in this country. Personally I think it's really sad when people tune in to sporting events purely for profit making and can't enjoy the match for what it is, but rather keep checking for in game betting options. Is it any wonder we're ranked as one of the biggest gambling nations in the world.



Perhaps I should have clarified from the beginning, that this topic is nothing more than a bit of fun.
There are no life-changing amounts involved here, nor would I advocate anyone to risk such on a sports event. I deliberately did not detail the €€€ amounts involved.

I would have thought the biggest sporting event on the planet would have drawn more commentary on prospective outcomes?
Sadly, and despite the volumes of money being placed on Betfair betting exchanges (let alone all the other gambling outlets), it appears a comparatively obscure concept like Bitcoin will invoke far greater reaction.

But you raise a fair point, gambling in this country (and elsewhere) is a serious issue. And after an excellent start, im now back in negative territory  .

So I will refrain, not only from mentioning the €€€ amount, but also the book price.

I do think England and Belgium will get off to winning starts.
I cant call Sweden/SK game other than traditionally the SK love to play attacking football, so I would expect a few goals at least.


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## Duke of Marmalade (18 Jun 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Perhaps I should have clarified from the beginning, that this topic is nothing more than a bit of fun.
> There are no life-changing amounts involved here, nor would I advocate anyone to risk such on a sports event. I deliberately did not detail the €€€ amounts involved.


This is the key point.  Of course problem gambling is a curse as is problem drinking, but for the majority these are healthy additions to life's tapestry (do you like that?).

I will mention money amounts.  For real mickey mouse contests I might bet €10 to give an interest and as a duke you can believe that €10 is not life changing, but it does get even a duke involved.  Try it _ceist _and lighten up a tad


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## Ceist Beag (18 Jun 2018)

I did try it Duke and found it ruined my enjoyment of the game so I stepped away from it. Maybe it's like someone who prefers not to drink because of how they behave when drunk - I just saw the danger signs and decided it wasn't a suitable pastime for me.
You're all adults and I'm not trying to stop anyone from having a bet (and I'm sure none of you are at all concerned what I think), I'm merely making an observation on how I see betting is pretty much part of most conversations on sport these days.


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## Leper (18 Jun 2018)

Betting for me is fun and nothing more. It's like my Lotto numbers twice a week; I do them religiously in the hope that some unworked-for easy money comes my way sometime. If it doesn't the bank is not broken. CB knew almost instantly that betting was not for him and he stepped away - good for him and congrats on smelling the coffee.


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## TheBigShort (18 Jun 2018)

This is shaping up to be a slaughter of Tunisia already at 1-0.

6 goals +


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## odyssey06 (18 Jun 2018)

Tough on the young Tunisian keeper, he was keeping his team in the game but has paid for his heroics.

England will probably want to at least beat the Belgium scoreline from earlier.


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## TheBigShort (18 Jun 2018)

Yes, but absolutely shocking finishing so far by England...cant continue?  A second goal and I think the dam will burst.


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## TheBigShort (18 Jun 2018)

the reaction of the Tunisian fans alone is worth tuning in to see


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## Duke of Marmalade (18 Jun 2018)

I just luv the BBC commentary.  Gary Lineker asserts that England are the victims of an international conspiracy from the Hand of God to the Moscow VAR.  I think he’s right


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## odyssey06 (18 Jun 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> I just luv the BBC commentary.  Gary Lineker asserts that England are the victims of an international conspiracy from the Hand of God to the Moscow VAR.  I think he’s right



I don't think it is a deliberate conspiracy, seems though to be inconsistently applied even within the same game. 
Brazil also seemed very hard done by.


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## TheBigShort (19 Jun 2018)

Ive no option but to go for Colombia, stirring stuff on the national anthem!


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## TheBigShort (19 Jun 2018)

Didn't see 2nd half but plumping for Senegal. My main man Mane on board!


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## odyssey06 (19 Jun 2018)

Brian Kerr, so genuine, "What are ya doin!" for that calamitous second goal. 
He stopped short of saying "Ya great big eegit ya" to the Polish defender.


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## Leper (20 Jun 2018)

Penalty decisions being decided hundreds of miles away by a crowd watching television screens, Brazilian superstars taking more dives than Jacques Cousteau, professional footballers being unprofessional, the Beautiful Game (World Cup at least!) is now up there with Virtual Horse Racing as far as the Betting Office is concerned.

Take a tip from a not-so-good Tipster, Gaelic Football is now more predictable and better value at the Bookies.


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## TarfHead (20 Jun 2018)

Pre-tournament, Russia were tipped to emulate South Africa in 2010 as a host country to be eliminated in the group stages.  Now they're all but qualified for the last 16 with a healthy goal difference in their favour.

I saw a claim on Twitter that the Russian team have collectively run more distance in each game than any other team.

Touch of the Chris Froomes about this


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## Leo (20 Jun 2018)

TarfHead said:


> Touch of the Chris Froomes about this



Take a look at the Netflix documentary Icarus!


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## TheBigShort (20 Jun 2018)

Great to see all those Iranian women in the crowd.


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## TheBigShort (20 Jun 2018)

No shocks today, forgot to post my predictions but would it be disingenuous of me to say I got 3 out 3 correct?

Not to worry, tomorrow is another day and I intend to go out on a limb somewhat.

Australia to beat Denmark
France to draw with Peru
Croatia to beat Argentina.


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## odyssey06 (20 Jun 2018)

I'm thinking Denmark to beat Australia 2-1, France to beat Peru by 1 goal and Croatia and Argentina to deliver the first 0-0 of the tournament.


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## TheBigShort (21 Jun 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> Croatia and Argentina to deliver the first 0-0 of the tournament.



Hopefully not! Not on the basis of any sheckels you may have invested of course, but on the basis that it has the potential to really entertain.


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## Leper (22 Jun 2018)

Hey Guys! You're bringing back the memories of when I worked for an on-course bookie. Lambs to the slaughter, I regret to say. Stick to Gaelic Football and you'll make a few bob from most playoff game accumulators. 

Oh! By the way the Bookie had a house with a Latin name when translated read "Fools Folly." But, you are enjoying yourselves and I enjoy an occasional bet too. Enjoy the feast of football, but keep your money in your pocket. 

But, no . . . . I'm enjoying your predictions . . .  keep 'em coming.


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## TheBigShort (22 Jun 2018)

H/t between Brazil and CR. I dont have screen but the livescore stats make for dreary reading?
In any case, I see RTE are quoting Hillary Clinton as saying the "World at global tipping point" 
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2018/0622/972437-hillary-clinton-dublin/

- if she hasnt caught the Shortie Syndrome then she can only be backing Costa Rica to beat Brazil! 
Im not that apocalyptic, so im sticking with the Brazilians to prevail!


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## TheBigShort (22 Jun 2018)

Serbia to beat Switz
Ice to beat Nigeria.


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## Duke of Marmalade (22 Jun 2018)

A conspiracy theory.  England vs Belgium in the final group matches looks like being a dead rubber except the winner of that group plays the runner up in Group H in the last 16.  With Japan and Senegal heading that Group it might be best to play the winner of Group H.


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## odyssey06 (22 Jun 2018)

Brady on Iceland v Nigeria, "Not a lot of football broke out in that half..."
ZZZ... I wonder if Ireland were there instead of Iceland would we be as  boring...

Update... that's more like it. Nigerians must have had the hairdryer treatment at halftime.


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## TheBigShort (22 Jun 2018)

Great to see two teams going for it from the get-go.
If this pace continues into second half im predicting a GOAL fest! +6.5


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## TheBigShort (22 Jun 2018)

Not the goal fest I anticipated, but could well have been. Great game. Really enjoying this WC.


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## Leper (25 Jun 2018)

. . . again at the risk of sounding boring most of the GAA Football playoffs went as expected over the weekend. Small odds per game but when backed in permutation some decent payouts occurred. I made a good profit over the two weekends of playoffs, but I had Offaly to beat Clare. Clare won by two points spoiling  better payouts. But, my gambling is in profit for the 2nd week of the playoffs. But, my horses were a bit slow though.

But, that is where it ends this year; GAA football gets somewhat to be a bit of a lottery forthwith for the lesser teams.


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## odyssey06 (25 Jun 2018)

Typically sports like rugby, american football and GAA with more scores per game tend to be more predictable than soccer, as the small number of goals in soccer means that luck \ decisions play a bigger part.


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## Leper (27 Jun 2018)

Nearly a week since we had some predicting - have you all lost enough yet?


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## odyssey06 (27 Jun 2018)

Leper said:


> Nearly a week since we had some predicting - have you all lost enough yet?



Well my starting predictions of Griezmann for top scorer looks shot, as for Spain to win it, well my optimism after the Portugal game is fading fast!


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## TheBigShort (27 Jun 2018)

Leper said:


> Nearly a week since we had some predicting - have you all lost enough yet?



Well, last Fri was my last post +6.5 goals - didnt come good. 
Back in the saddle today and I am predicting the Brazilians to prevail with a win and Switzerland also.
Actually been very impressed by the performances of the Swiss, I never figured they were ranked 6th in the world. 

The other group is all to play for, going for Mexico and Germany to win.


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## TheBigShort (27 Jun 2018)

Leper said:


> Small odds per game but when backed in permutation some decent payouts occurred.





odyssey06 said:


> Typically sports like rugby, american football and GAA with more scores per game tend to be more predictable than soccer, as the small number of goals in soccer means that luck \ decisions play a bigger part.



I would have similar betting strategy ordinarily, but for the WC I let loose a little.


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## elacsaplau (27 Jun 2018)

Not to worry TBS - if the beautiful game doesn't deliver, you can always indulge in the gyrations of cryptos!

Actually, I've had lots of luck during the WC - problem being that it's been pretty much all bad!! I have this, what can only be described as a fetish, for backing 0-0 draws and have taken a right battering. You can take it that I had no "interest" in the French game yesterday!! OUCH!!


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## TheBigShort (27 Jun 2018)

Ouch!

Id generally stay away from 0-0's, although come the knockout round the tendency for a draw increases. 
A lot of goals are scored after 70 mins + with one side or other pushing for the win. But if with 10 mins to go and all equal, the risk taking is reduced as teams keep one eye on the extra-time option.


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## odyssey06 (27 Jun 2018)

Plus these last round of group games have a unpredictable dynamic, teams resting players, some not pushed for a win as they've already qualified or a draw seems them through. It'd need to be a straight must win game for both teams like Nigeria - Argentina. Avoid the likes of England - Belgium!


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## Purple (27 Jun 2018)

So who put money on South Korea to beat Germany 2 nil?


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## odyssey06 (27 Jun 2018)

Purple said:


> So who put money on South Korea to beat Germany 2 nil?



A lot of world cup predictions brackets are out of the window now!

If anyone picked Sweden to top that group and Germany to finish last I take my hat off to them! At least I got Mexico coming 2nd right.


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## TheBigShort (27 Jun 2018)

Didnt see that coming at all! After a very bright start it will take some work now just to break even.
Nevermind, I like the Germans, great footballing nation, but watching them being toppled in such fashion was worth it for the entertainment value. 
I've backed the Brazilians to prevail this evening, but I would not rule out another a seismic shift in world football order.


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## Leper (28 Jun 2018)

Senegal, Poland, England, Tunisia all to win today (and I know nuffin' about Association Football). I'll shove a tenner on the accumulator with my foul mouthed bookies clerk on the Douglas Road and if there are winnings they go to St Vincent de Paul.


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## Purple (28 Jun 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Didnt see that coming at all!


I don't think anyone did.


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Jun 2018)

Leper said:


> Senegal, Poland, England, Tunisia all to win today (and I know nuffin' about Association Football). I'll shove a tenner on the accumulator with my foul mouthed bookies clerk on the Douglas Road and if there are winnings they go to St Vincent de Paul.


Think of it this way.  You have decided to part with a tenner.  So in effect you are gambling with SVP funds.  I am not sure they would approve


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## TheBigShort (28 Jun 2018)

Leper said:


> Senegal, Poland, England, Tunisia all to win toda


Im going to Lay those outcomes (as an accumulator if I can). If im wrong, I will be paying out more than a pretty penny.
If im right, I will have justified my Thursday evening pints of Bulmers! 
Not that any justification should be required in this weather

*Cant see a facility to accumulate the lay bet, but I will do them individually.

Any profits will be diverted to my bar fund!


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Jun 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> A conspiracy theory.  England vs Belgium in the final group matches looks like being a dead rubber except the winner of that group plays the runner up in Group H in the last 16.  With Japan and Senegal heading that Group it might be best to play the winner of Group H.


Au contraire.  Big incentive to win tonight.  Japan a much preferred R16 opponent to Columbia.  Columbia are a bit unlucky to have a man red carded plus penalty very early doors in first match, likewise Japan were lucky.  Columbia could be a dark horse. Japan surely a pushover for tonight’s winner into QFs.


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## odyssey06 (28 Jun 2018)

But if you play it forward to QF, then runners up in England group and on same side as Serbia\Switzerland, whereas winners are on same side as Brazil\Mexico. So evens out probably.


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## Duke of Marmalade (28 Jun 2018)

Good point.  Still I think both teams will want to win and without too much to lose could be an open match.


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## TheBigShort (28 Jun 2018)

England huffing and puffing.

I expect the Chocolates to administer the final dose.


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## TheBigShort (28 Jun 2018)

A bit late now, but perhaps the politicians should have put the whole Brexit thing, customs union, single market thing on the outcome of this match? 
Beats war (nobody dies), trade war (no job losses) and in the end, what difference will it make?


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## elacsaplau (29 Jun 2018)

Of course, TBS, you do realise that if England gets knocked out of the tournament, it will be equated to someone leaving the bog (the jacks) and will become known as...…….WCexit


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## TheBigShort (30 Jun 2018)

Well, I have not been impressed with either of these sides so far, but that Di Maria goal was a peach.

Hard one to call, but at 1-1 the temptation is there is to go with Argies, they have the momentum. Could this be the catalyst for them to unite?
So at 1-1, Argies it is.


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## odyssey06 (30 Jun 2018)

France ripping them apart now... lovely play seems too easy to open them up.


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## TheBigShort (30 Jun 2018)

Ok, so France have decided to demonstrate their true credentials...._after _I placed my bet! 
They owe me now!


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## odyssey06 (30 Jun 2018)

Some very stupid play from Argentina now, wasting their own time.


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## TheBigShort (30 Jun 2018)

Im going for Uruguay against Portugal. Am I just asking for more punishment?


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## odyssey06 (30 Jun 2018)

As a neutral, disappointed to see Cavani go off after that exquisite goal... I thought Portugal had Uruguay on the ropes until he pulled the trigger.


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## TheBigShort (1 Jul 2018)

Something about Spain that bores me now. Perhaps too many of the team have been around for so long? 
Logic says they will beat Russians, but home side advantage and that niggling annoying feeling about Spain - im backing Russia! 

Croatia to progress over Denmark too.


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## odyssey06 (1 Jul 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Something about Spain that bores me now. Perhaps too many of the team have been around for so long?



Yes to the boring bit, but I drew the opposite conclusion. This is a team of winners, the experience won't faze them, there's no massive weight of expectations, I can see them boring their way through to the final, and Costa is a handful for any defence.


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## TheBigShort (1 Jul 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> This is a team of winners



Very true.


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## TheBigShort (1 Jul 2018)

The long slog is on. Extra-time and penalties. Some 12 rounders on the way. Well done Russia, im back in the game!


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## TheBigShort (1 Jul 2018)

Was about to write 'false dawn for Denmark, doubling up on Croatia to qualify'.

Going to double up in any case!


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## odyssey06 (1 Jul 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> The long slog is on. Extra-time and penalties. Some 12 rounders on the way. Well done Russia, im back in the game!



There goes my Spain theory


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## Duke of Marmalade (1 Jul 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> But if you play it forward to QF, then runners up in England group and on same side as Serbia\Switzerland, whereas winners are on same side as Brazil\Mexico. So evens out probably.


Very correct. With the Russia result England now in best half and one of the favourites.  An England France final will be very embarrassing for TM.  Macron no problem attending but her sitting on her high horse.
Last three winners out, Germany Spain and Italy, will Brazil be next?


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## TheBigShort (1 Jul 2018)

I got Mexico in work sweepstakes. €5 a head. If they win the tournament I profit €155 (31x5).
I don't think Mexico will win it. So Im figuring, I have a virtual €155 to place on the opposing side of Mexico between now and their exit. Starting with Brazil to qualify, a €20 punt will return my €5.
Unless of course Mexico progress, then I will be one step closer to €155 (-€20).


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## TheBigShort (2 Jul 2018)

Brazil and Belgium to qualify today. No other way to look at it I think. Although I expect at least 1.5 goals in both games in 90mins, so will have a peep there too.


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## TheBigShort (2 Jul 2018)

Sweepstake €5 returned !


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## TheBigShort (2 Jul 2018)

Well a string of successful calls has me back in the black .
But it all counts for little in the face of heartbreak for the Japanese .


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## odyssey06 (2 Jul 2018)

Cometh the hour, cometh the Fellani... my sweepstake hopes are still alive thanks to the send on the big man and put the ball "on his head" tactic.

Tough for Japan, the corner at the end was madness but in extra time I think the Belgian battering ram would have overpowered them.


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## odyssey06 (2 Jul 2018)

One of Russia, Croatia, Sweden(1958), Switzerland, England (1966), Colombia will be in the World Cup final.
The other side of the draw has Brazil (2002), Belgium, France (2006), Uruguay (1950).

I've put the last final appearances in brackets for each team.


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## TheBigShort (2 Jul 2018)

Good stuff, Switzerland are 34.0 in outright betting. I expect them to progress past Sweden. Then every chance against England/Colombia and they are in semi-final territory. 
If so, their price will drop to 8.0 minimum, and probably even less.

Still, alot of football to be played between now and then, but definitely one to keep an eye on the squad reports. The Swiss are going about their business somewhat under the radar in my opinion. Very little noise about them and I consider that a positive.


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## TheBigShort (3 Jul 2018)

Well thats my Swiss theory dead and buried before it even got going .

England to qualify this evening, maybe?


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## odyssey06 (3 Jul 2018)

I don't see anyone will be sad to see the Colombians going home, at a footballing level they are a negative to the tournament.


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## odyssey06 (3 Jul 2018)

All change... Colombia might win this now that they have remembered to play football.


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## TheBigShort (3 Jul 2018)

Well done England, finally a shoot-out goes their way.
No football for next two days - anyone for a game of tennis?


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## Delboy (3 Jul 2018)

I'm starting to get a real fear....


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## odyssey06 (4 Jul 2018)

Delboy said:


> I'm starting to get a real fear....



I'd say England go into Sweden game as slight favourites; I'd have Croatia or Russia (technically home game) as favourites in the SF based on results so far; and then whoever comes through from the other side of the draw must be favourites for the final.


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## Duke of Marmalade (4 Jul 2018)

Well of all remaining 8 teams, England are the bookies’ favorite to reach the final.
Look on the bright side.  If England beat Brazil in the final we might never hear about 1966 again


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## Sunny (4 Jul 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Well of all remaining 8 teams, England are the bookies’ favorite to reach the final.
> Look on the bright side.  If England beat Brazil in the final we might never hear about 1966 again



True and then when Sir Bobby Charlton and Sir Geoff Hurst meets up with Sir Jessie Lingard and Sir Raheem Sterling, it will be nice for them to be able to compare war stories.


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## odyssey06 (4 Jul 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Well of all remaining 8 teams, England are the bookies’ favorite to reach the final.
> Look on the bright side.  If England beat Brazil in the final we might never hear about 1966 again



The odds could also reflect that it's hard to pick between Brazil, Belgium, France and Uruguay for who will emerge from their side of the draw; but I think whoever does must go into the final as favourites - looking at either the FIFA rankings or number of world cups won, it is a lopsided draw. 
Host nations sometime have that effect, and losing the World Cup winners in group stage also.

I think England reaching the final and being outclassed and losing 3-1 to Brazil would probably deflate expectations and bring a dose of reality to the media.


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## odyssey06 (4 Jul 2018)

I think this is a pretty good ranking of the remaining 8 teams:
http://www.the42.ie/power-ranking-the-8-remaining-teams-in-the-world-cup-4106974-Jul2018/


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## Sunny (4 Jul 2018)

odyssey06 said:


> The odds could also reflect that it's hard to pick between Brazil, Belgium, France and Uruguay for who will emerge from their side of the draw; but I think whoever does must go into the final as favourites - looking at either the FIFA rankings or number of world cups won, it is a lopsided draw.
> Host nations sometime have that effect, and losing the World Cup winners in group stage also.
> 
> I think England reaching the final and being outclassed and losing 3-1 to Brazil would probably deflate expectations and bring a dose of reality to the media.



If England get to the final, they will win it. There is more chance of them messing up against Sweden by looking past the game and getting carried away.


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## odyssey06 (4 Jul 2018)

Sunny said:


> If England get to the final, they will win it. There is more chance of them messing up against Sweden by looking past the game and getting carried away.



Southgate should sit the team down to watch a replay of the 2nd half of the 1992 euros game when Sweden knocked them out...


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## odyssey06 (4 Jul 2018)

Suffering withdrawal symptoms. 
FIFA should have scheduled 'World Cup' shield matches on these dead days, could have had USA, Italy, Netherlands, Wales, Honduras, Ivory Coast, Chile, Paraguay, New Zealand...

Maybe even Ireland!


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## Duke of Marmalade (4 Jul 2018)

I'd really like to see England reach the final to see if official Britain continue to boycott the event with the whole populace in a frenzy.


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## Deiseblue (4 Jul 2018)

Hopefully Croatia get past Russia & in the event that Sweden fail to earn our eternal gratitude then I think Croatia are our best bet.
I think that England looked distinctly average last night against a team missing their best player


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## Duke of Marmalade (4 Jul 2018)

Deiseblue said:


> Hopefully Croatia get past Russia & in the event that Sweden fail to earn our eternal gratitude then I think Croatia are our best bet.
> I think that England looked distinctly average last night against a team missing their best player


Coming from the MOPE community of NI I have as much cause as anyone to resent 800 years of Albion oppression but yet once they go out of this WC my interest will greatly diminish.


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## Deiseblue (4 Jul 2018)

I , on the other hand , will be unable to relax until they are knocked out.
My view is somewhat coloured by my experiences of their fans in Stuttgart & Sardinia but mostly from the West Stand in Lansdowne in 1995.


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## TheBigShort (5 Jul 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Coming from the MOPE community of NI I have as much cause as anyone to resent 800 years of Albion oppression but yet once they go out of this WC my interest will greatly diminish.



MOPE? Haven't heard that one before? What does it stand for?


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## odyssey06 (5 Jul 2018)

My own view on English football culture is through When Saturday Comes, Football 365 and writers like Jonathan Wilson... so I'd have no issue with them doing well.


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## Duke of Marmalade (5 Jul 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> MOPE? Haven't heard that one before? What does it stand for?


Most Opressed People Ever


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## TheBigShort (6 Jul 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Most Opressed People Ever



Ah, good one. I do recall it now. An attempt by others to devalue actual hurt endured directly from the hands of the British State or from those terrorists they sponsored.
I think I recall victims of Bloody Sunday in Derry being labeled as 'hoodlums' not too long back? 
Brazil to qualify, and Uruguay to topple the Frenchies!


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## odyssey06 (6 Jul 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Brazil to qualify, and Uruguay to topple the Frenchies!



Doubts about Cavani's fitness, can't see them beating France without his firepower.


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## Duke of Marmalade (6 Jul 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Ah, good one. I do recall it now. An attempt by others to devalue actual hurt endured directly from the hands of the British State or from those terrorists they sponsored.
> I think I recall victims of Bloody Sunday in Derry being labeled as 'hoodlums' not too long back?
> Brazil to qualify, and Uruguay to topple the Frenchies!


Notice that Brazil and its smaller neighbour Uruguay are almost geographical mirror images of France and Belgium, even the same shape.  Not that this has any implications for investment strategy.
I’ll go the opposite, France & Belgium to progress.  The WC has essentially become a European affair with others invited to the party.  The golden era of South American/ European meaningful rivalry ended when Germany defeated Brazil 7-1.


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## Sunny (6 Jul 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Notice that Brazil and its smaller neighbour Uruguay are almost geographical mirror images of France and Belgium, even the same shape.  Not that this has any implications for investment strategy.
> .



Might not be useful for 'investment strategy' but that is an interesting bit of knowledge and one I am going to look up now! Thanks


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## odyssey06 (6 Jul 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Notice that Brazil and its smaller neighbour Uruguay are almost geographical mirror images of France and Belgium, even the same shape.  Not that this has any implications for investment strategy.
> I’ll go the opposite, France & Belgium to progress.  The WC has essentially become a European affair with others invited to the party.  The golden era of South American/ European meaningful rivalry ended when Germany defeated Brazil 7-1.



Seems like history repeating grand Duke!


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## TheBigShort (7 Jul 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> Notice that Brazil and its smaller neighbour Uruguay are almost geographical mirror images of France and Belgium, even the same shape.  Not that this has any implications for investment strategy.
> I’ll go the opposite, France & Belgium to progress.  The WC has essentially become a European affair with others invited to the party.  The golden era of South American/ European meaningful rivalry ended when Germany defeated Brazil 7-1.



Well im mightily impressed with this analytical WC investment strategy.

I thought I was doing fair with my WC calls, give or take a handful of clangers, but in fairness to his Dukiness, this call surpasses all I have seen before.

Notwithstanding the reasoned and rationale demise of South American v Europe typified by Germanys 7-1 thrashing of Brazil, im actually intrigued by this concept of country geographical size. 

Throw in some political factors and surely nothing but a Novichok v Portdon Down semi-final is on the cards now? 

Depending on how much #fakenews the Russians can muster to sway all our views,  and regardless of the outcome of that semi-final, the stars are aligning to produce nothing less than the Hulk Hogan v Andre the Giant equivalent of #BREXITMANIA  -

*Belgium* v *England* final in *Moscow*!!!


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## Duke of Marmalade (7 Jul 2018)

Brazil played better than I expected.  Perhaps not done for yet.  It will be a sad day when the yellow and blue strip ceases to be a WC icon.
I would love a France England final.  English tabloids re-enacting the Battle of Waterloo.  Only this time the manager is English thru and thru, at Waterloo the England manager was Irish. In fact 30% of the England team at Waterloo were Irish

But to see Macron lapping it up and May still doing a nerve agent hissy fit, that would be precious.


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## odyssey06 (7 Jul 2018)

England dominated Sweden but wasteful in front of goal, they should have gone in 2-0 up at halftime. Against a better team they can't afford to miss so many. But their preparation really shows the value of set pieces in international football, as there's not enough team to create a fluid attacking unit, you are relying on individual talent or set pieces. Kane defo hasn't got the legs for extra time and England lacking firepower from the bench. They are not at the level of Belgium or France but in a once off game they could do it - assuming they overcome Croatia\Russia.


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## cremeegg (8 Jul 2018)

Not a football fam, just looking to make a profit. Also not a regular at the bookies, maybe some one can explain if I have understood this correctly.

If I put €100 on France at 2/1 and they win I take home €300. If I put €100 on England or Belgium at 11/4 and they win I take home €464, for Croatia at 5/1 its €600.

Given that this would cost me €400 it seems a good deal to me. 

Of course France might win and then I am at a loss. 

So maybe I will put €150 on France, total stake €450, if France win its quits, if England or Belgium win I am up €13, if Croatia win I am up €150 

A  free bet ?


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## Duke of Marmalade (8 Jul 2018)

cremeegg said:


> Not a football fam, just looking to make a profit. Also not a regular at the bookies, maybe some one can explain if I have understood this correctly.
> 
> If I put €100 on France at 2/1 and they win I take home €300. If I put €100 on England or Belgium at 11/4 and they win I take home €464, for Croatia at 5/1 its €600.
> 
> ...


My dear _cremeegg_ 100 at 11/4 pays 375 not 464. 
These are generous odds but still an overround 103% and so no arbitrage opportunity as seen by the following:
10 France @ 2/1 pays 30
8 England @ 11/4 pays 30
8 Belgium @ 11/4 pays 30
5 Croatia @ 5/1 pays 30

Total stake 31, guaranteed loss of 1


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## cremeegg (9 Jul 2018)

Thanks Duke for the correction. You would need to be Croatian, to want to bet on this.

Can you explain how you calculated the 103%


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## Duke of Marmalade (9 Jul 2018)

cremeegg said:


> Thanks Duke for the correction. You would need to be Croatian, to want to bet on this.
> 
> Can you explain how you calculated the 103%


31/30 but more generally if an event is rated at odds of x/1 then that says its chance of willing is 1/(1+x) eg 1/1 means a 1/2 chance and 2/1 means a 1/3 chance.  Bookies ensure that when you add all the chances up they add to more than 100%.  If they add to less then there is an arb opportunity by betting all the possibilities.  The odds you quote are from the best in the market and I doubt come from a single bookie.  It is possible to be able to arb the market as a whole but not on this occasion.


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## TheBigShort (9 Jul 2018)

Also these are the 'To Win' match odds. Meaning if either or both games end in a Draw after 90mins you lose your stake. 

The 'To Qualify' to next round odds are much shorter.


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## cremeegg (9 Jul 2018)

TheBigShort said:


> Also these are the 'To Win' match odds. Meaning if either or both games end in a Draw after 90mins you lose your stake.
> 
> The 'To Qualify' to next round odds are much shorter.



My understanding is that these are the odds to win the World Cup, so that there is certainty that one of these teams will win.


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## cremeegg (9 Jul 2018)

Duke of Marmalade said:


> 31/30



I see, and if that came out at less than 100% then there is a profit to be made ?



Duke of Marmalade said:


> Bookies ensure that when you add all the chances up they add to more than 100%.  If they add to less then there is an arb opportunity by betting all the possibilities.



There is a bit in "The Godfather" where a bookie working for the Corleone's gets this wrong and all the punters are queueing up to bet with him. He received a severe talking to.


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## TheBigShort (9 Jul 2018)

cremeegg said:


> My understanding is that these are the odds to win the World Cup, so that there is certainty that one of these teams will win.



My err, you are correct.


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## odyssey06 (11 Jul 2018)

Didn't see that coming... will England hold their nerve.


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## Duke of Marmalade (11 Jul 2018)

France v Croatia, is that not just about the most boring final imaginable, I won’t even bother watching.  Theresa spared embarrassment of not being able to attend, what a downer.


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## TheBigShort (12 Jul 2018)

My head says France but my heart goes for Croatia. They have slogged it out, three extra-times so far 
But as this showed they have the quality and the will to persevere. 

I reckon it will be a good final. Perhaps not the first-half or at least until the first goal. 
I wasn't impressed with France in the first round, but they are certainly purring now. 

France to win World Cup (although I hope it is Croatia).


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## Deiseblue (12 Jul 2018)

Took a while but now that England have been eliminated it’s nice to be able to relax and watch what should be an entertaining final with World class players on both sides.
France for me as surely fatigue levels in the Croatia team must be high


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## odyssey06 (15 Jul 2018)

All of France's opening goals in the knockout stages have come from set pieces - penalty v Argentina, free kick v Uruguay, corner kick v Belgium and free kick v Crotia.


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## TheBigShort (15 Jul 2018)

Seen enough. Backing Croatia to win in 90. 2-1 down at h/t.
9/1 for this. Im currently running a small loss for this WC but if this comes in I will be close to doubling up my "investment"


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## TheBigShort (15 Jul 2018)

500/1 now - I found a €1 under couch. Worth a punt


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## odyssey06 (15 Jul 2018)

Was hoping Croatia would comeback but France put them to the sword


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## TheBigShort (15 Jul 2018)

Bookie wins again!  

Overall great WC. Impressed with Croatia, population of 4million and have produced a succession of good teams over last 20yrs. 
We should learn from them.


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## Duke of Marmalade (16 Jul 2018)

To think we were denied the sight of Teresa May dressed in an England jersey sharing a platform with Putin except she wouldn’t have an umbrella


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## Leper (22 Aug 2018)

We watch the Rose of Tralee pageant every year. Great to hear stories of Irish emigrants who didn't have it soft. Young ladies of Irish descent applying themselves well with dignity to a competition that has spread to knowledgeable audiences all over the world. This year there was only to going to be one winner after all the interviews. She won by a distance and I backed her on Paddy Power @ 7/1. Certainties don't pop up every day, you know. Well done Waterford Rose. 

Unfortunately, my horses earlier in the week didn't perform. There's a message there somewhere.


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## TheBigShort (22 Aug 2018)

Leper said:


> There's a message there somewhere.



Don't bet on animals! 

Well done on the win, RoT not something I would consider.


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