Key Post Should I fix my rate to escape the very high variable rates?

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Brendan Burgess

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Some lenders are offering their customers cheaper fixed rates instead of offering them fair variable mortgage rates. Fixed rates are hugely beneficial to the lenders. They lock you into that lender for the period of the fix and they reduce the public pressure for fair variable mortgage rates.

Some of the time, people who fix their mortgage save money as a result, but most of the time, they lose money as a result of fixing and some of the time, they lose a lot of money.

In general, when fixed rates are below the variable rates, it's because the lenders expect the variable rates to fall. That might not be true of the Irish market today. They may be encouraging people to fix to be seen to be responding to the Minister's pressure, and to take lock in the borrowers.

While no one can be 100% sure, the most likely answer today, June 2015, is that you should not fix for a period of over one year at any rate above 3%. If you can't switch lender, the decision is more complicated - check out this Key Post
I can't switch lenders - should I fix?


Even at fixed rates of 3.6%, they are still way above what is being charged across the Eurozone. The Fair Mortgage Rates Campaign will press for all rates to be reduced further, so if you fix at 3.6%, and fixed rates are later brought down to 3%, you will be stuck paying 3.6% when you might have been able to fix for a longer term at a lower rate.

Interest rate forecasting is very unreliable and interest rates could rise, rather than fall. But on balance, a fall is much more likely in the short term.

In the longer term, rates will probably rise as the ECB rate rises but that seems to be some way off.

If you are paying a high variable mortgage rate, you may be able to bring this rate down by switching lender.
Some Bank of Ireland customers who are paying 4.5% are tempted to fix at 3.6% because they are saving 0.9%. But they could get the same savings by switching to KBC at 3.6% variable and still keep their options open of switching again if rates fall further.

Before switching, ask your current lender for a lower variable rate.
You might not even have to switch lender to get a cheaper variable rate. If you threaten to switch, your lender may give you a cheaper variable rate to retain your business. At present, only Bank of Ireland is doing this, but it’s worth asking your bank anyway. If they lose a lot of customers due to their refusal to treat existing customers well, they will change their policy.

If you do decide that you want to fix immediately, then see if another lender has a cheaper fixed rate.

If you have a low loan to value, a low loan to income ratio and a clean credit record, you will be able to switch lenders. Don’t automatically stick with your current lender. Check to see if the benefits of switching to a cheaper lender will outweigh the costs of moving. As of June 2015, all the lenders were charging similar fixed rates so unless you have a very big mortgage, the saving from switching lenders to fix your rate would not justify the cost.

Fixed rates for all lenders

If you do decide that you want to fix immediately, fix for as short a period as possible.
If you fix for 5 years, you will be stuck with your current lender for 5 years and will not be able to benefit from any future falls in mortgage rates. If you fix for just one year, you may get a cheaper rate immediately and you will be free to switch lender after the year is up.

Remember: If you fix, you will not be able to overpay your mortgage or pay off lump-sums without penalty.
If you have a variable rate mortgage, you can overpay without penalty at any time. With very high mortgage rates, this is by far the best place for any excess income or savings you might have.

If you fix your interest rate, you will not be able to pay lump sums off your mortgage without a penalty.

Some lenders may allow you to make overpayments of up to 10% per year to a fixed rate mortgage.

Remember: If you fix, and you later want to move home, you will have to pay an early repayment penalty.
If you want to sell your home while you still have a fixed rate mortgage, you will have to pay a penalty for breaking the fixed term early. This is another reason for not fixing for any period over a year.

If you decide to switch lenders check out this Key Post:

How to evaluate the decision to switch lenders
 
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What if you are stuck with current lender due to negative equity or mortgage arrears?

If you are able to switch lenders, then you should probably wait until you see what other lenders do over the coming months.

If you can't switch, check out this Key Post

I can't switch lenders - should I fix?
 
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Hi Brendan

Would you still advise somebody who was not in a position to switch mortgage providers not to fix at any rate above 3% to escape a high SVR?
 
I'd love to know the advice on this too. Am currently in negative equity with AIB on a SVR which will be going to 3.9% this month. To fix it for one year I would get a rate of 3.5% and then I'm back on the SVR. Even if they cut again this year would it go below this 3.5%???
 
I'd love to know the advice on this too. Am currently in negative equity with AIB on a SVR which will be going to 3.9% this month. To fix it for one year I would get a rate of 3.5% and then I'm back on the SVR. Even if they cut again this year would it go below this 3.5%???
I'm the same as you, with EBS but very tempted to go for their 1 year fixed @3.5 as I think AIB/EBS will only do one more 0.25% cut. But I'm going to wait until September and see what Noonan has to say then...... It'll probably be a lot of posturing and hot air! In the meantime, keep campaigning and emailing TD's and keep the momentum going.
 
I don't think that anyone should fix at over 3%.

If someone does want to fix, then they should fix for one year maximum - unfortunately you can't do this with Bank of Ireland if you are an existing customer.

Brendan
 
I suppose time will tell whether Brendan's advice proves to be correct.

Personally if I was on a 4.5% SVR rate with BOI and was unable to switch to another provider, I would be sorely tempted to fix for 2 years at 3.6% (or 3.7% for that matter). BOI could certainly reduce rates further but they would have to do so relatively quickly (unless the further cuts are very substantial) for a borrower not to still come out ahead. Equally they could raise rates during the 2 year period...
 
What about factoring in the penalty costs if breaking out of a fixed rate? How is the penalty cost calculated? Maybe it's worthwhile factoring that in when assessing the savings eg you fix now for two years @3.6 per cent. Some bank announces rate of 2.8 per cent with say 1000 cash back. You might still save a few quid if you break out of the fixed rate.
 
I suppose time will tell whether Brendan's advice proves to be correct.

Personally if I was on a 4.5% SVR rate with BOI and was unable to switch to another provider, I would be sorely tempted to fix for 2 years at 3.6% (or 3.7% for that matter). BOI could certainly reduce rates further but they would have to do so relatively quickly (unless the further cuts are very substantial) for a borrower not to still come out ahead. Equally they could raise rates during the 2 year period...

I agree with this. In addition to taking that fix I'd advise the borrower to continue paying the mortgage at the 4.5% so as to bring down the LTV and at the end of the fix you'd owe a lot less so that a hike in rates will not affect you as much. In addition it gives you room to switch more easily.
 
For anybody grappling with the decision whether or not to fix to escape a high SVR in circumstances where switching is not an option, I thought the following remark made by Governor Honohan (in response to a query as to when average SVRs would revert to the European average) was interesting:

"Given the actual loan losses, the prospective loan losses and the perceived difficulty in recovering loans in Ireland, we will see spreads to cover higher loan risks in Ireland for a good while to come. That is the reality. It will be one of the long-lasting legacies."

Obviously the Governor doesn't have a crystal ball but you certainly expect him to have an informed view on these matters.
 
Just a heads up that a friend of mine fixed two months ago with boi@3,8% for 2 years
She contacted them yesterday and they allowed her to switch to a fixed rate of 3.6 % for a penalty of 200 euro!!!! She said she's still saving about 700 euro over the two year term.I ddon't know when the new term starts presumably yesterday.
 
I'm the same as you, with EBS but very tempted to go for their 1 year fixed @3.5 as I think AIB/EBS will only do one more 0.25% cut. But I'm going to wait until September and see what Noonan has to say then...... It'll probably be a lot of posturing and hot air! In the meantime, keep campaigning and emailing TD's and keep the momentum going.

I imagine there are a lot of EBS customers weighing up this option today! I'm paying 3.9% SVR now with EBS (balance of €125,000 with 12yrs to go). The 1 year fixed at 3.5% is tempting yet also makes me feel like a turncoat on the Fair Mortgage Campaign.

Pros: I have no prospect of selling or switching within the next year. My home is valued approx €120-€130k so I don't have the right LTV for switching. Fixing for 12-months seems like a reasonable move.

Cons: Getting caught out with bad timing if the SVR rates are reduced later this year due to Government presssure. (I've read Brendan's other post "I Can't Switch Lenders - Should I Fix?").
 
The 1 year fixed at 3.5% is tempting yet also makes me feel like a turncoat on the Fair Mortgage Campaign.

Hi Leaky

An interesting point.

I think it's best to make the decision which is right for you.

I have set out my assessment of the decision on an individual basis.

If people fix en masse, it would take the steam out of the campaign, but I don't think that should affect your decision. If you determine that fixing is right for you, then fix. If it's 50/50 then hold off.

Brendan
 
Hi Brendan

Thanks for clarifying your advice (I missed Monday's edit to the top post).

I would still be sorely tempted to fix for two years @ 3.6% (or 3.75% for that matter) to escape an SVR @ 4.5%. Fixed rates could certainly fall further but I doubt rates will fall to a sufficient degree and at a sufficient pace to trump fixing at today's rates. Time will tell...
 
Just sent in our papers today to avail of the BOI 3.6% rate over two years. We had the house valued last week and the overall process was very straightforward.
I struggled whether to fix for 2 or 3 years, mainly because I have concerns how the seemingly inevitable "Grexit" may have on interest rates in periphery economies like Ireland. I choose 2 years because I'm hoping that competition may force BOI's hand to lower their variable eventually, but it's a long way from 4.25 (our current rate) to <3.6 in .25 increments to be dragged out kicking and screaming. Does anyone else think Grexit may affect rates here?
 
With all the anti-fixing talk I am interested to hear opinions on my situation.
I was paying 4.5% with KBC up until recently when I opened a current acc with them and received a 0.2% discount bringing my mort rate to 4.3.
Now, if I fix for 2 years I will be paying 3.9% (4.1% 2 yr fixed rate -0.2% disc). 4.5 to 3.9% is a huge saving and justifies the risk of fixing for 2 years imho. Anyone thoughts welcome.
 
Hi Patrick

You are on 4.3% now, so the reduction is from 4.3% to 3.9%. A 0.4% reduction is a good saving. But you are locking yourself into KBC for two years on a rate which is at least 1.5% more than they should be charging.

Brendan
 
I agree Brendan. It's with a downturned mouth that I will fix but I find it very hard to believe the banks will reduce variables below 3.9% in the next 2 years (let alone to 2.5%). I would prefer to sign up to an appropriate 1 year fixed rate if it was available but its not. Unfortunately we are the banks easy to tap cash cows whether we like it or not and now Europe is weighing in on their side. I really admire the work you are doing btw.
 
Hi Brendan. Just wondering what you think of my current option. I am waiting until Friday the 17th of July to avail of Ulster banks new fixed rate offers. My current ltv is <60% so I would qualify for the 3 yr fixed at 3.3%. I am currently on 4.3 variable with 150k remaining over 27yrs. I know I should have pushed long go for a better variable rate because of my ltv. Have heard of people getting 3.8%. I have only lately started to look at my mortgage and really want to see what is the best option out there at the moment.
Thanks in advance.
 
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