Institute of Investing and Financial Trading

RobFer said:
This complication combined with ETF's expense ratios do undermine the argument for passive investing in Ireland.
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Eh, no it doesn't. I am a passive investor. I hold a diversified portfolio of around 10 shares directly. I do not try to pick winners. When things go wrong, I don't cut my losses. When things go well, I don't "take profits".
 
Sure. I meant passive investing by tracking an index. Usually that is what is meant by passive investing. I am trying to do what you are doing but I wonder are the handful of stocks I pick likely to capture the market.
 
SBarrett said:
I can be a little bit dumb at times so could you explain that to me because I have no idea what that means.

Thanks

Steven
www.bluewaterfp.ie
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My pleasure. Looking back over the last few days... My last 10 futures trades resulted in 4 winners 5 losers and a 0 (neutral ), so my ability to predict the market is not great !. The 4 winners netted 36 points, the 5 losers netted -16 points. Points equal money so it's money management that yielded good results more than my ability to predict market movements. Cutting losses and running profits is mainly what it's all about. Other important factors imo include suitable market avoid cfd's, spread betting and forex . Use a direct access trading platform with low execution costs. I pay £ 20 for my round ( open/close) futures trade - plenty of brokers out there would charge £50 to £70 for the same thing !
 
demoivre said:
The 4 winners netted 36 points, the 5 losers netted -16 points. Points equal money so it's money management that yielded good results more than my ability to predict market movements. Cutting losses and running profits is mainly what it's all about.
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You make money if your winners yield more points than your losers.... in short all it is hoping/predicting... call it what you will, that you will win more than you loose. There is not money management in that.
 
demoivre said:
My pleasure. Looking back over the last few days... My last 10 futures trades resulted in 4 winners 5 losers and a 0 (neutral ), so my ability to predict the market is not great !. The 4 winners netted 36 points, the 5 losers netted -16 points. Points equal money so it's money management that yielded good results more than my ability to predict market movements. Cutting losses and running profits is mainly what it's all about. Other important factors imo include suitable market avoid cfd's, spread betting and forex . Use a direct access trading platform with low execution costs. I pay £ 20 for my round ( open/close) futures trade - plenty of brokers out there would charge £50 to £70 for the same thing !
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Thanks for the reply.

That's not for me, too short term and too risky.

Steven
www.bluewaterfp.ie
 
Jim2007 said:
You make money if your winners yield more points than your losers.... in short all it is hoping/predicting... call it what you will, that you will win more than you loose. There is not money management in that.
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I don't think it can be put down to fluke but the question is whether performance above the market return is more than fluke. In a bull market its not hard to make some money.
 
RobFer said:
I don't think it can be put down to fluke but the question is whether performance above the market return is more than fluke.
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Oh there is no doubt that it is a fluke! But there are periods when the trader gets it right and of course we can add some lovely math and graphs to it.... but in the long run the house always wins. That is why the best way to make money out of trading is to be a picks & shovels merchant!
 
Jim2007 said:
You make money if your winners yield more points than your losers.... in short all it is hoping/predicting... call it what you will, that you will win more than you loose. There is not money management in that.
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Applying a stop loss to a trade, which limits the extent of a losing trade, is not money management? Moving a stop loss to lock in profits in a winning trade is not money management? Ok :rolleyes:.
 
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demoivre said:
Applying a stop loss to a trade, which limits the extent of a losing trade, is not money management? Moving a stop loss to lock in profits in a winning trade is not money management? Ok :rolleyes:.
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Would you say you have far better market prediction skills than professional fund managers (I say far better because the transaction costs you pay are many times greater than they pay). The best fund managers in the world cannot consistently beat the (risk adjusted) market returns consistently. Any investors who do (Buffet etc) appear to share one characteristic - they buy and hold for very long periods, minimising transaction costs (its also possible they are just lucky).

When you make a profitable trade ask yourself - is it likely I saw this mispricing but other traders/investors did not? If you can't plausibly answer yes - there is no possibility that what happened was not down to luck or general market movements.
 
demoivre said:
Applying a stop loss to a trade, which limits the extent of a losing trade, is not money management? Moving a stop loss to lock in profits in a winning trade is not money management? Ok :rolleyes:.
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It might be risk management, but then again stop loss orders very often fire at the wrong moment resulting lost opportunity...
 
tvman said:
Would you say you have far better market prediction skills than professional fund managers (I say far better because the transaction costs you pay are many times greater than they pay). The best fund managers in the world cannot consistently beat the (risk adjusted) market returns consistently. Any investors who do (Buffet etc) appear to share one characteristic - they buy and hold for very long periods, minimising transaction costs (its also possible they are just lucky).

When you make a profitable trade ask yourself - is it likely I saw this mispricing but other traders/investors did not? If you can't plausibly answer yes - there is no possibility that what happened was not down to luck or general market movements.
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It's got very little to do with predicting or identifying mispricing - I've already explained what it's about. This is a pointless discussion. Lets compare traders to traders and investors to investors. I don't know what Buffet's typical returns are but I doubt they're 200 to 300 % per annum which is what mine would be.
 
demoivre said:
I don't know what Buffet's typical returns are but I doubt they're 200 to 300 % per annum which is what mine would be.
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And you have been doing that now consistently for what 10 years, 15 years.... because I can tell that in my 27 years in the industry the best over the long run that I've seen just about come out even.
 
Jim2007 said:
And you have been doing that now consistently for what 10 years, 15 years.... because I can tell that in my 27 years in the industry the best over the long run that I've seen just about come out even.
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16 years, highly leveraged product so returns not that spectacular. Plenty of people would love to work in your industry Jim....make no net contribution to the business over the long term and get paid for it !! Never heard the likes of it :D Why on earth would you want to do something long term that didn't work :confused: FWIW I have always found my background in Mathematics much more useful than my background in Economics re trading. In particular a decent knowledge of probability is very useful. Over and out.
 
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The idea of being told how to make millions by a fella with holes in his shoes doesn't really float my boat. I've heard that such carry on is not uncommon at financial trading seminars.

demoivre, the last person who did what you purport to do was Walter Mitty Esquire. Are you posting live from your Sunseeker?
 
demoivre said:
16 years, highly leveraged product so returns not that spectacular. Plenty of people would love to work in your industry Jim....make no net contribution to the business over the long term and get paid for it !! Never heard the likes of it :D Why on earth would you want to do something long term that didn't work :confused: FWIW I have always found my background in Mathematics much more useful than my background in Economics re trading. In particular a decent knowledge of probability is very useful. Over and out.
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That's funny.
 
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