Inda sacking Richard Bruton

[csirl]

A lot can change over the next couple of years. Anyone know anything about this new proposed party that the Sindo mentioned last Sunday?

A new party consisting of the FG members who opposed Kenny, the reminants of the PDs and a few extras incl a couple of ex-FF TDs would attract a lot of support.

 

[Complainer]

Dream on Complainer, that poll was flawed and surely you know it is nothing but a pipe dream that Labour could even come close to being the largest party!


Nonsense, Labour are still and will remain the 3rd party for the foreseeable future. You don't go from 21 seats to 60+ seats just because you have a popular leader! You're completely blinkered by meaningless polls Complainer.

I wouldn't advise anyone to be giving up the day job on the results of one poll, but this is a lot more than one poll. Labour have been ahead of FF (i.e. 2nd party) on every poll for the last 12 months. Labour have been the top rating party in Dublin on almost every poll for the past 18 months. Not party leader ratings - but top party - party that will get your no.1 vote.

Both of the main polls MRBI and Red C showed +8% rise in support for Labour in their most recent outings. These are serious findings. Ignore them at your peril.

But items like water charges, property taxes etc are substantive issues in the area of taxation policy.
I enjoy all the fire and brimstonen that comes out of Labour everytime a difficult decision is made but I expect more substantive policy from the the most popular party in the Country.
I can't agree with your analysis of Honahan's report. Labour was against ANY Guarantee. Honahan said an extensive guarantee was necessary but there were flaws. What was Labour's alternative suggestion?
I am all for free third level education but how do Labour intend to pay for it. I don't see how any party can rule out any sort of money saving idea in the current climate. Trying to pretend that tough decisions can be avoided is populist politics. I can't remember any policy that Labour announced that ran the chance of alienating any section of the voting public. At least FG came out with pay freeze for public sector workers whether they were right or wrong.
I will give you the Universal Health Insurance Idea! Interesting idea but I haven't heard too much detail from either FG or Labour.

Labour was not against ANY guarantee, and clearly distinguished between the need to protect depositors and the need to protect borrowers at the time. See [broken link removed]. Please stop rewriting history to suit yourself.

Labour hasn't shyed away from tough decision, and has a detailed alternative budget for 2010 with a "full year adjustment of €5.8bn".

It's all there.

 

[Ceist Beag]

Both of the main polls MRBI and Red C showed +8% rise in support for Labour in their most recent outings. These are serious findings. Ignore them at your peril.

Complainer either you are being mischievous with your argument or you simply don't do maths very well! +8% on 21 seats would return you 22, possibly 23 seats at the next general election - in order for Labour to be contenders for largest party as you seem to suggest they are capable of doing I think you would need in the order of 200% rise in support! Would you care to outline exactly how you think Labour would achieve 40 extra seats at the next general election?

 

[Shawady]

Labour got 33 seats in 1992 with 19% of the vote. I don't see them become the biggest party next time out but if they polled in the mid 20's they might get around 40 seats.
What might happen in next election is 3 mid-size parties of 40-50 seats.
I think the past week will come back to haunt FG.

 

[Firefly]

Would you care to outline exactly how you think Labour would achieve 40 extra seats at the next general election?

Restoring the PS pay cuts

 

[Liamos]

Complainer, I wasn't referring to you. I was referring to csirl who said earlier that FF might offer Gilmore the Taoiseach's job.

By the way, all this talk of Labour becoming the largest or even the second largest party in the country based on opinion poll results is just plain silly. Labour do not have the party structure particularly outside of Dublin to win enough seats to challenge FF or FG.

 

[Ceist Beag]

Restoring the PS pay cuts

Maybe Labour have secretly recruited the FG rebel group to boost their numbers!

 

[Complainer]

Complainer either you are being mischievous with your argument or you simply don't do maths very well! +8% on 21 seats would return you 22, possibly 23 seats at the next general election - in order for Labour to be contenders for largest party as you seem to suggest they are capable of doing I think you would need in the order of 200% rise in support! Would you care to outline exactly how you think Labour would achieve 40 extra seats at the next general election?

I think it is you that needs the maths lesson. Firstly, Labour is up way more than 8% in the polls since the last general election - more like 20% I'd guess. Regardless, +8% in first preference votes does not = +8% in number of seats. Have a look at this interesting analysis, applying the MRBI poll results to every constituency in the country, coming out with Labour and FG neck and neck.

http://politicalreform.ie/2010/06/11/the-irish-timesispos-mrbi-poll-a-geographical-dissection/

Labour got 33 seats in 1992 with 19% of the vote. I don't see them become the biggest party next time out but if they polled in the mid 20's they might get around 40 seats.
What might happen in next election is 3 mid-size parties of 40-50 seats.
I think the past week will come back to haunt FG.

That is indeed a possible scenario, similar to the result that I linked above. That will lead to some interesting horse trading in the short-term, and to the extinction of FF in the long term.

Complainer, I wasn't referring to you. I was referring to csirl who said earlier that FF might offer Gilmore the Taoiseach's job.

By the way, all this talk of Labour becoming the largest or even the second largest party in the country based on opinion poll results is just plain silly. Labour do not have the party structure particularly outside of Dublin to win enough seats to challenge FF or FG.

Thanks for the clarification. Again, don't make simple assumptions about Labour's strength. Labour has very solid councillors in place around much of the country, Galway, Limerick, Tipp, etc and has also been successfully at pulling in independents like Jerry Crowley and Kelly in Roscommon. They will all add up.

 

[csirl]

Complainer, I wasn't referring to you. I was referring to csirl who said earlier that FF might offer Gilmore the Taoiseach's job.

.

​

I think Labour will offer to go into coalition with FF if Gilmore is offered the Taoiseachs job.

 

[Liamos]

Now I know you're not being serious. The extinction of FF????

 

[Complainer]

Now I know you're not being serious. The extinction of FF????

Once Ireland moves on from Civil War politics to a traditional right-left divide (or centre-right to centre-left) divide like the rest of Europe, FF are history. They have nothing to offer their followers once they lose power.

 

[Caveat]

Once Ireland moves on from Civil War politics to a traditional right-left divide (or centre-right to centre-left) divide like the rest of Europe, FF are history. They have nothing to offer their followers once they lose power.

I kind of agree but I think it's highly unlikely in the short term anyway that Ireland will move away from civil war politics.

 

[Latrade]

Once Ireland moves on from Civil War politics to a traditional right-left divide (or centre-right to centre-left) divide like the rest of Europe, FF are history. They have nothing to offer their followers once they lose power.

Couldn't agree more, but it won't be FF who are the only casualties and at the same time we also need to move on from Cloth Cap Socialism. There's just too much of a "team sport" behind political parties, party lines drawn that will never be crossed.

FF will survive until there's a viable alternative. Labour's lesson is across the water with the Lib Dems, strong polls, not a great election result (based on expectation).

 

[Complainer]

Labour's lesson is across the water with the Lib Dems, strong polls, not a great election result (based on expectation).

Yes and no, there is a lesson there, but the first-past-the-post system will always give dramatically different outcomes than our singlej-transferable-vote system. If the UK had an STV system, the LibDems would be in a very different situation now.

 

[csirl]

Once Ireland moves on from Civil War politics to a traditional right-left divide (or centre-right to centre-left) divide like the rest of Europe, FF are history. They have nothing to offer their followers once they lose power.

I agree. FF wont cease to exist, they'll probably become the 'third' party in the system with c.15-20% of vote. In 10+ years time it will be FG v Labour in most elections.

 

[Purple]

I don't know about that. The three major parties overlap considerable on policy and position on the Right-Left scale. It's really about personality at leadership and front bench level. Who knows what the future holds.