House Market Weakening?

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whathome

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Has anyone noticed marked increased supply and a slower market in recent weeks?

We have been very active in looking for our next house since February. We are sale-agreed on our current house, we had been getting worried about rising prices and lack of supply during our search for somewhere to move to. In the last four weeks however, things seem to have turned slightly, certainly in the areas we're focused on in north east Dublin. Could it be concern about the interest rate rise next week?

In the past few weeks, we've noticed:
- Properties staying on the market longer
- Some price reductions
- Fewer people at viewings
- Less aggressive bidding wars
- Properties coming back on the market having been sale-agreed
- Far more houses for sale in general
- Increased withdrawals at auction
- Higher proportion of ex-rental investment houses on the market

Has anyone else noticed this recent trend? We are getting quite concerned about committing to a larger mortgage should this be early indication that the market has turned.
 
Heard from a senior Director of the top two estate agents this week that the numbers of people attending views and auctions is down considerably since March. Conceeded that they were absolutely baffled at prices that some foolish people were prepared to chase very average properties to.
 
House next to me has been on Sale for about 6 months now, Frankfield in Cork. Now I think it's overvalued but I'm still surprised it's not gone yet.
 
We went sale agreed on a south Dublin house several weeks ago but for various reasons haven't signed yet.

This can't happen very often but the house a couple of doors away came on the market (different EA) during this time and it is identical in almost every respect.

There's very little interest in it and the best bid to date on this one is nearly E45,000 below what we went sale agreed on !

Handbrake ON !!
 
Have noticed an abundance of for sale signs around Dublin. Although admittedly there are a lot of sale agreed signs also.

A whole lot of signage I suppose
 
sonar said:
We went sale agreed on a south Dublin house several weeks ago but for various reasons haven't signed yet.

This can't happen very often but the house a couple of doors away came on the market (different EA) during this time and it is identical in almost every respect.

There's very little interest in it and the best bid to date on this one is nearly E45,000 below what we went sale agreed on !

Handbrake ON !!
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Gazunder them - not very nice I know, but most sellers wouldn't mind doing it to you, and in your case you are not talking about a small amount of money.You have agreed to pay way over the odds for your new house, and are now coming to your senses, before it's too late.

If you don't gazunder them, imagine the picture in 6 months time when you meet the new neighbours and they ask you what you paid for yours before they insisting on telling you what they paid for theirs. (probably already knew what you paid).

How long is it going to take you to earn take home pay of E45k (plus the stamp duty on that amount) and worse, you are going to have to pay interest on that money for the next 30 years or whatever lenght your mortgage lasts.


Murt
 
whathome said:
Has anyone noticed marked increased supply and a slower market in recent weeks?

We have been very active in looking for our next house since February. We are sale-agreed on our current house, we had been getting worried about rising prices and lack of supply during our search for somewhere to move to. In the last four weeks however, things seem to have turned slightly, certainly in the areas we're focused on in north east Dublin. Could it be concern about the interest rate rise next week?

In the past few weeks, we've noticed:
- Properties staying on the market longer
- Some price reductions
- Fewer people at viewings
- Less aggressive bidding wars
- Properties coming back on the market having been sale-agreed
- Far more houses for sale in general
- Increased withdrawals at auction
- Higher proportion of ex-rental investment houses on the market

Has anyone else noticed this recent trend? We are getting quite concerned about committing to a larger mortgage should this be early indication that the market has turned.
Click to expand...

Thats economics for you they can only build so many houses before people get sick of accummulating houses (i.e. its more trouble than its worth/too risky) and supply exceeds demand, etc.
 
Virtually all the property we've looked at has ended up being withdrawn from auction and sold afterwards or still for sale as private treaty. I still cannot reconcile this with the constant "prices are rising" stuff from the agencies e.g. ESRI/PTSB a few days back.

Official estate agent explanation is that there is too much on the market at the same time this year which means auctions are less intense. Hmmmm. Could just be that fewer buyers can meet the price.

The UK bubble started to pop in 89 when buyers simply couldn't meet the prices any more - even with IO loans, parental help, first year discounts etc. etc. Then interest rates rose and there was an 8 year slump.

Mind you, if the market starts to top out here in the middle of the SSIA windfalls, it could get very, very ugly indeed in late 2007 when the money stops.
 
Neffa said:
The UK bubble started to pop in 89 when buyers simply couldn't meet the prices any more - even with IO loans, parental help, first year discounts etc. etc. Then interest rates rose and there was an 8 year slump.
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And look what happened since then. Markets fluctuate. Big deal.
 
Is there any quick way to find out what your house is worth without asking an auctioneer to value it.
 
ClubMan said:
And look what happened since then. Markets fluctuate. Big deal.
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It was a pretty big deal if your house was re-possessed or if you were stuck (like many were) in a "starter" home which you could not move out of due to negative equity. And it was a pretty big deal for many people who lost jobs in recession which followed.

Still, hey, "in the long run", it will all be ok.......
 
Is this the top?

What happens in a speculative market driven by capital appreciation when a top arrives? Well in the US of late, supply grew rapidly as speculators became aware that the market had turned . In the Spanish Costa's a similar supply surge has accompanied the realisation that the market had stopped soaring. Given the high participation rate by speculators in the Irish market. I'd expect a high degree of volatility if a change in sentiment takes place, as a rush to the exit, becomes a stampede.
 
Is there any opinions about the market in Waterford? A relation of mine has a property (unlet of course!) and he is wondering whether this is the time to let it go. I can't see the point in him holding it as he will get at least 3% net off Northern Rock (before any impending interest rate rises) so I think on that alone he should sell. This property will always struggle to get tenants as there is an explosion of new units which have come/are coming on stream down there now. The rental market is very weak generally down there from what I can see.
 
RE: Waterford:
The rental market is very weak generally down there from what I can see.
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Surely not, I was watching househunters last night, where the lady was advising a couple who'd sold up in clondalkin and had bought down in Carlow somewhere, they were hell bent on getting the rest of their money into an investment property. Anyway, they were taken to Waterford where the adviser was quoting 850per month for a student 3 bed semi, 700 per month to families (longer than term time), massive rental demand from students, professionals and best of all, capital appreciation of 10% or 15%. So she pointed out to them that if they paid 200k, it'd be worth maybe 230K next year!!
They were also taken to Carlow, where apparently 1 bedroom apartments are in massive demand, cost 170K, rent approx 600pm (shortfall not a problem cos they were putting 100K surplus from dublin house into the house anyway).
Anyway, the program finished with the couple looking at a place in Rathdowney (excellent rental potential due to the local mart every second Tuesday).
 
Beattie, I don't know much about Waterford in particular, but If the place is unlet and tenants are difficult to find I cannot see the point in holding on to an asset that is costing money and will 'probably' not appreciate all that much over the next few years.
I would advise on cashing in - lock in the profits - and move the cash to another class (as you have suggested 2.76% Net at NR).

There is no point in trying to time the top of this market.

I have recently offloaded two properties in areas outside Dublin and have made a good profit. I know that if in two years I look back and think "I could have made another X,000 by holding on to them for that bit longer" I dont really mind - it is better than thinking "Jaysus, if I had just let them go earlier I would have been able to sell them easier and at a higher price."

It is free money whatever way you look at it - I did no work to accumulate lots of money apart from buy some property at the right time.
I often think what kind of economy is this where so many people can make so much free money from doing absolutely sweet F.A.

I mean I have earned more from buying and selling property (that any eejit can do) than I did over the same period from my job - which I had to train for very many years to be able to do....it is a bit ridiculous.
 
HI Beattie, I am a renter in Waterford, and from what I have been observing for the past few months there is a slowdown in both lettings and sales.We;ve decided to remain renting after doing the math (to buy the house we currently rent at 700 a month would have cost 1200 a month over 35 years to buy, and this was before the hike in interest rates). Rents, especially for houses as opposed to the new apartment schemes, have fallen dramatically in the past few years, we are now paying far less to rent the same house than we did 5 years ago.

The abundance of brand new apartments in the city centre means many rental accomodation units are being left empty as tenants can pick and choose from so many. Rented houses in the private estate I live in have bene empty for up to 8 months now, even after the owners have renovated in the hopes of attracting new tenants. Many of the new apartment schemes, even the more prestigious ones, have a good number of unoccupied units also.

I also continue to keep an eye on the property market (in the vain hope that a house will come on the market that would make financial sense for us to buy!) and smaller townhouses that were on at say 200k are now creeping back down towards 170k. Houses that were last year attracting 275k are now back down to around 260k. My husband would be dealing with estate agents on a day to day basis, and there does seem to be a slowdown in the number of houses they are managing to go sale agreed on.

I;m not sure if this is just a slow time in the market, a jump in the number of new builds coming on stream meaning people are not all rushing to bid on a small number of properties, or if it has reached a point where average wages in the area are just not enough anymore to get a large enough mortgage on to purchase a decent house. From personal experience, though, ourselves and many of our friends are observing the same trends - one example - friends of ours bought their first house recently, a small townhouse for 205k. 4 months after they moved in, a house in the same road (all houses on this road are identical) went for 215k and they were happy to know their own house was rising in value, or so it seemed. this month, houses on that road are on at 195k. Cue unhappy faces, understandably enough.

I am no financial whizz, but have been observing what is going on via friends who are getting on the ladder, others like ourselves who continue to rent, and possibly the most interesting development of all - local papers have always carried ads for mortgage providers, first time buyer seminars, etc, but in the past 2 weeks alone the ads have gone from a quarter-page in size to half or full-page adverts with more sensationalised language used in the text, possibly indicating that banks and brokers are getting a little more antsy about getting the customers back in the door and applying for mortgages.

If your relation is in a position to sell, and he is not attracting tenants who will help generate revenue for him, the property and rental markets - from my observations - seems to be at least on a plateau, if not on a slightly downward trend.
 
March and April always see insane prices. It ALWAYS goes soggy in June relative to March.

Is it down relative to last year though ????
 
Glenbhoy said:
RE: Waterford:

massive rental demand from students
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There have been a large number of apartment schemes built in recent times geared specifically towards student demands (on the cork road, in poleberry, and opposite ursuline court, for example), and coupled with the many new apartment schemes in general, there is now an abundance of accomodation for students, leading to a fall-off in demand for student houses, and even houseowners who have been offering digs-style accomodation for students are not getting the students in for the past 2 years. My SIL who has been offering digs for the past 10 years is not going to be doing so anymore once her current students finish up this summer, as there are not enough students looking for this type of accomodation anymore. She was lucky for the past 3, as the same students returned to her each year, but whereas in previous years she was inundated with requests for accomodation, often having to turn away up to 15 requests, she has not had any interest for the past 2, although she has been lucky that her current students decided to return to her. She;s not alone in this either, many of the homeowners who offer digs are experiencing similar difficulties.

I wouldn;t BTL in Waterford with students specifically in mind, as they seem to be plumping for the new apartment schemes which are centrally located, and have numerous extras on offer (free broadband and cable being one example).
 
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