Brendan Burgess
Founder
- Messages
- 53,772
Many commentators have suggested some form of debt for equity as a possible contribution to solving the overindebtedness/negative equity problem
What is striking about all these proposals, is that they are all vague using expressions such as “some form of debt for equity swap”. I have not seen a detailed proposal including the pros and cons of their proposals and what they offer over the alternatives.
Interest rate| 5%|2.5%
Mortgage|€300k|€300k
House Value| €200k|€200k
Repayments based on 20 year mortgage|€1980|€1,589
Repayments on 30 year mortgage|€1,610|€1,185
Interest only repayments|€1,250|€625
66% of interest|€825|€410 Note: The Standard Variable Rate is around 5% as of September 2011.
The ECB rate is 1.5% so those on cheap trackers are paying around 2.5%. Around 50% of home owners are on cheap trackers
A mortgage is sustainable if the borrower can pay the interest on that mortgage
Ideally a borrower should pay off the loan on their home before retirement so that they can live mortgage free. But this is a very Irish obsession. In many other countries people are happy to rent property all their life. Even in Ireland, many people can never afford to buy their own home and rent from private landlords or from the state.
During the life of a 20 or 30 year mortgage, many people will encounter a period when they can’t make capital repayments. If they are able to meet the interest on their mortgage, then their indebtedness is not increasing and they should not worry unduly. When their financial situation improves they can resume paying down the capital on their mortgage.
Under the Deferred Interest Scheme, the lender will accept a payment of 66% of the interest for up to 5 years
The Expert Group on Mortgage Arrears proposed a Deferred Interest Scheme which has been implemented by most lenders. So in the example above, a borrower on a standard variable rate who can pay €825 a month, will be given up to 5 years to get back on track.
Debt for equity 1 – The bank(or the state) buys half the house at market value - no debt forgiveness
|Before|After
Mortgage|€300k|€200k
House Value| €200k|€100k
Negative equity|€100k|€100k
Negative equity %|50%|100%
Interest @5%|€15k|€10k
Rent|0|€5k The bank has bought half the house so as the tenant, the borrower must now pay rent on that half. So while the interest payments have reduced, the reduction has been replaced by rent. But worst of all for the borrower, house prices must now increase by 100% for them to escape negative equity.
Debt for equity 1A – The banks buys the whole house at market value - no debt forgiveness
|Before|After
Mortgage|€300k|€100k
House Value| €200k|zero
Negative equity|€100k|€100k
Negative equity %|50%| -
Interest @5%|€15k|€5k
Rent|0|€10k This is a logical extension of option 1. But this is what we have at the moment – it’s just that we call it voluntary surrender. The borrower has lost the ownership of their home.
Debt for equity 2 – The bank (or state) buys half the home for half the mortgage - partial debt forgiveness
|Before|After
Mortgage|€300k|€150k
House Value| €200k|€100k
Negative equity|€100k|€50k
Negative equity %|50%|50%
Interest @5%|€15k|€7.5k
Rent|0|€5k.
Debt for equity 2A – The bank buys the whole house for the mortgage amount - full debt forgiveness
|Before|After
Mortgage|€300k|zero
House Value| €200k|zero
Negative equity|€100k|zero
Negative equity %|50%|-
Interest @5%|€15k|zero
Rent|0|€10k 2A is simply another form of repossession but with debt forgiveness of €100k.
2 is debt forgiveness of €50k
If government policy dictates that the banks should forgive debt, then that is fine, but it should be called “debt forgiveness” . It should not be called “debt for equity”
This is, of course, great for the borrower. They get forgiven their negative equity. They are a tenant of the bank and can stay in the house or move to another house as they see fit.
It is terrible for the banks. The banks are not set up to be landlords. They have to make excess capital provisions for property assets over loan assets. They take on the risk of price falls and tenants not paying rents. Of course, they get the benefit of any price increases, but only if they could sell the property.
The role of the taxpayer
The taxpayer owns around 50% of all home mortgages. If the government directs AIB, EBS and PTSB to forgive debt, then so be it.
However, the government will not be able to direct the other banks such as Bank of Ireland, Ulster Bank and KBC to forgive debt and become landlords. If the state owned banks forgive debt, then the mortgage holders in the other banks would demand that the taxpayer subsidise their negative equity also.
- [broken link removed] in the RTE programme - Future Shock May 2010
- The FF/Green revised programme for government
- The Labour/FG programme for the current government
- [broken link removed] Sunday Business Post April 2011
- Deputy Thomas Pringle and Deputy Stephen Donnelly May 2011
- Mike Soden who is a member of the board of the Central Bank
- Karl Whelan – Sunday Times 28 August
- Denis Naughten TD – Sunday Times 28 August
- Ciaran Lynch - Labour TD [broken link removed]
- Patrick Honohan [broken link removed]
- Pearse Doherty, Sinn Féin responding to Keane Report
- Fianna Fáil 12 October 2011
- The Sunday Times editorial 16 October 2011
What is striking about all these proposals, is that they are all vague using expressions such as “some form of debt for equity swap”. I have not seen a detailed proposal including the pros and cons of their proposals and what they offer over the alternatives.
Mortgage|€300k|€300k
House Value| €200k|€200k
Repayments based on 20 year mortgage|€1980|€1,589
Repayments on 30 year mortgage|€1,610|€1,185
Interest only repayments|€1,250|€625
66% of interest|€825|€410
The ECB rate is 1.5% so those on cheap trackers are paying around 2.5%. Around 50% of home owners are on cheap trackers
A mortgage is sustainable if the borrower can pay the interest on that mortgage
Ideally a borrower should pay off the loan on their home before retirement so that they can live mortgage free. But this is a very Irish obsession. In many other countries people are happy to rent property all their life. Even in Ireland, many people can never afford to buy their own home and rent from private landlords or from the state.
During the life of a 20 or 30 year mortgage, many people will encounter a period when they can’t make capital repayments. If they are able to meet the interest on their mortgage, then their indebtedness is not increasing and they should not worry unduly. When their financial situation improves they can resume paying down the capital on their mortgage.
Under the Deferred Interest Scheme, the lender will accept a payment of 66% of the interest for up to 5 years
The Expert Group on Mortgage Arrears proposed a Deferred Interest Scheme which has been implemented by most lenders. So in the example above, a borrower on a standard variable rate who can pay €825 a month, will be given up to 5 years to get back on track.
Debt for equity 1 – The bank(or the state) buys half the house at market value - no debt forgiveness
Mortgage|€300k|€200k
House Value| €200k|€100k
Negative equity|€100k|€100k
Negative equity %|50%|100%
Interest @5%|€15k|€10k
Rent|0|€5k
Debt for equity 1A – The banks buys the whole house at market value - no debt forgiveness
Mortgage|€300k|€100k
House Value| €200k|zero
Negative equity|€100k|€100k
Negative equity %|50%| -
Interest @5%|€15k|€5k
Rent|0|€10k
Debt for equity 2 – The bank (or state) buys half the home for half the mortgage - partial debt forgiveness
Mortgage|€300k|€150k
House Value| €200k|€100k
Negative equity|€100k|€50k
Negative equity %|50%|50%
Interest @5%|€15k|€7.5k
Rent|0|€5k
Debt for equity 2A – The bank buys the whole house for the mortgage amount - full debt forgiveness
Mortgage|€300k|zero
House Value| €200k|zero
Negative equity|€100k|zero
Negative equity %|50%|-
Interest @5%|€15k|zero
Rent|0|€10k
2 is debt forgiveness of €50k
If government policy dictates that the banks should forgive debt, then that is fine, but it should be called “debt forgiveness” . It should not be called “debt for equity”
This is, of course, great for the borrower. They get forgiven their negative equity. They are a tenant of the bank and can stay in the house or move to another house as they see fit.
It is terrible for the banks. The banks are not set up to be landlords. They have to make excess capital provisions for property assets over loan assets. They take on the risk of price falls and tenants not paying rents. Of course, they get the benefit of any price increases, but only if they could sell the property.
The role of the taxpayer
The taxpayer owns around 50% of all home mortgages. If the government directs AIB, EBS and PTSB to forgive debt, then so be it.
However, the government will not be able to direct the other banks such as Bank of Ireland, Ulster Bank and KBC to forgive debt and become landlords. If the state owned banks forgive debt, then the mortgage holders in the other banks would demand that the taxpayer subsidise their negative equity also.