Hi Darag
You may have overlooked my post where I listed out the financial and non financial benefits.
Hi Brendan, no, I didn't overlook it at all. What I did do was to separate the two aspects - investment/financial and non-financial/emotional. In fact, I've very deliberately expressed my belief that there is a significant non-financial benefit to living in a house that you own on numerous occasions. There is absolutely no way I would even attempt to argue that the utility of a rented home and an owned home are the same as it would be clearly nonsense to do so.
What I've tried to do is look at the investment/financial side of the deal and evaluate it using the sort of criteria I think would commonly be applied here on AAM.
Admittedly, I feel I've struggled to explain this aspect of my argument clearly. What I've tried to do is show how it is actually surprisingly easy to put a financial value on the ownership benefit by comparing the prices the market has established for rents and those for house prices. This premium could easily be calculated using prices from daft.ie if you'd a mind to do so. So we could easily factor out this premium from the purchase price and consider the balance the "investment" portion.
In fact when considering a house purely from the point of view of an investment, this ownership premium has no relevance because it equally inflates the purchase and eventual sale price.
Maybe a concrete example would explain what I'm trying to say. Let's say there is a house available for rent for 14k a year. Let's say the landlord nets 10k and interest rates are 4%, then a rational landlord (a rare breed in Ireland admittedly as there seems to be an endless supply of landlords who are prepared to subsidise their tenants) will pay max 250k for the house in order to break even. A property like this in Ireland would probably actually fetch let's say 300k from an owner occupier (or a stupid naive investor) as they will look at the cost to rent the house but will be prepared to pay more for the benefits of living in a house they own. So the owner/occupier is paying 50k over what the cold hearted landlord would pay because they value being able to live in their own home. I was trying to argue that you should forget about this 50k - some people will pay more, some less, basically it is all down to personal circumstances and subjective opinion. It's the balance - the 250K - I am interested in; if you could buy the investment portion of the house for 250K ignoring the fluctuating value of the "owner premium" (50k), would it make sense? I.e. even if the price to buy matched the price to rent, would it make sense?
This is based on evidence and analysis. It is not based on emotion as you are suggesting. However, I am putting a non-financial value of home ownership.
I hope I've addressed the non-financial value point above - it is simply not relevant to the discussion as it has a neutral effect on the appreciation of value the asset and can be easily measured separately. Maybe I missed it but I feel the only purely investment advantages of owning your home you've listed relate to tax and welfare. I admit I've ignored one or two items you've listed as advantages like "it is easier to borrow" as I did not understand what point you were trying to make. I tried reading it as meaning a home owner can access loan products easier than a non-home owner but that didn't make much sense; it is always easier for people with positive net value to borrow money whether that value is tied up in a house or shares while a person who owns a house in negative equity is not going to find it "easier to borrow".
Besides that I honestly do not see any rational hard financial evidence to support your contention in your messages. I read the sentence "I believe in the principle of diversification, but it is sometimes overstressed." but I saw it as a statement of opinion (one I strongly disagree with) rather than convincing evidence to support your advice that a young person should put every single penny of their savings into Irish residential property for half their working life. I'm sorry Brendan this is simply terrible advice; it worked out well for people bought property before the biggest post-war property boom in Europe started (i.e. the Celtic tiger days). This good luck is very unlikely to be experienced by anyone else in our lifetimes. The only reality here worth a damn is that the long term returns from this asset class is roughly that of inflation.
Whatever about all that, I thought at least if you disagreed with me you'd try to take on any of these disadvantages. This list was intended to be the meat of the message:
- There's a huge upfront cash requirement - often more than an entire years salary net of tax.
- You lose a significant chunk of the above if your need to sell earlier in the form of foregone stamp duty.
- You are commitment to an onerous 20-35 year payment schedule which doesn't at all suit the way people's lives develop. This whole thread was started by me reacting against the suggestion that going interest only was a sensible way to mitigate this HUGE problem with this investment.
- Entry and exit are extortionately expensive - often 10% or more.
- It is completely non-liquid; it can take months or years to convert the investment into cash.
- It involves a huge amount of internal leverage (you list this as a benefit?) exposing the investor to increasing risk of ruin. This isn't hypothetical - property busts have bankrupted 10s of millions of people in Europe over the last 3 decades because of the leverage involved.
- You cannot easily partially liquidate your investment if you need cash.
- The "management" costs of this investment are significant. Even when you only include the purely financial costs involved in maintaining a house (ignoring the cost of your own time) like mortgage protection insurance, life insurance, council taxes, maintenance, upkeep, etc. I suspect you are looking at least 2% of the assets value per year.
- In order to even "break even" you have to live in the house for the entire duration of the investment so that you can count the "saved" rent as part of the return achieved by the asset. Mostly this is not a burden as it's far nicer to live in a house you own than rent one but it is restrictive non-the less. Life is a long and twisty path for most people; being forced to liquidate your entire life's savings/wealth in order to move for family/job/whatever reasons is a massive disadvantage.
Each one of these on their own is a serious negative; in combination and allied with the knowledge that the investment is only likely to return the rate of inflation just makes the idea look like a joke. These are serious issues and I don't believe you would recommend any other investment vehicle which had these issues. For example forestry funds, BES schemes and "investment" holiday homes all share most or all of these characteristics (except the having to live in them), yet I recall that you've expressed negativity towards investments like these over the years because of these very reasons despite various tax advantages and the like.
So what? I have made it very clear that, with hindsight, it would have made much more sense over the past few years to rent rather than buy. This will be the case some years, while owning a house will be the case more often than not. Giving one example, does not advance your argument.
In fact I wish I had never mentioned it - it was not meant as an argument -it was more anecdotal than anything. As was my description of seeing renters in this other country lead much more stable, financially secure and comfortable lives by being able to pay for the roof over their heads as they use/need it according to their present needs instead of putting every penny of their personal wealth toward a deposit/stamp duty and servicing the ongoing cost of the loan for 20/30 years. Instead, I see people here who are earning the equivalent of the average industrial wage in Ireland who have a far better lifestyle than the equivalent in Ireland even though the cost of living is very high here. Yes they get old and then they often end up renting a smaller place in quieter areas; what is so awful about this? At least they are not pushed close to poverty during what should be the good years of your life, bringing up a family. During their lives they've had far less financial strain and have enjoyed far more luxuries than the equivalent Irish person who has spent 4/5 years saving for a deposit/stamp duty and then are mortgaged to the hilt for the next 20. I could be imagining it but people seem generally much happier here, parents have a greater opportunity to take career breaks to look after kids and people do not suffer stress worrying about mortgage payments. Not only that, they get to spend their income gradually over their life times. Contrast with a typical Irish person who has swallowed the "you must by a house" mantra; work for 4 or 5 years just to build up savings for a deposit; then fix yourself to a 20/30 year repayment schedule which is effectively "front loaded" given the effects of inflation; at this stage following conventional wisdom (repeated here on AAM), they have bought the biggest house they can afford and in the middle of all this, they may have to struggle to afford a family? Step back a minute Brendan and imagine yourself in another country which didn't have the same "buy a house" tradition as Ireland has; do you really think you could make a case to those people for buying a house given all these disadvantages?
And just in case it's not clear, it seems to me that the financial benefits of owning compensate for the risks involved. And you get the huge added non-financial benefits of home ownership.
I'm sort of repeating myself but could you clearly state what you believe to be the "financial benefits" of investing half your life's income in an asset class that has historically returned about the rate of inflation? I really can't find any in what you've written beside a few tax benefits which are relatively minor and actually compare very poorly with the tax breaks available for pension investments. And there is no free lunch; you don't "get the huge non-financial benefits of home ownership" for nothing - you pay through the nose for these benefits as is evident by the huge disparity between the cost of renting and the cost of borrowing to own the same house.