Threat of Run on Irish Banks

O

onq

Registered User
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From:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...failing-on-mandates-pimco-s-clarida-says.html


Ireland risks a “major bank run” unless European officials act quickly to calm the financial turmoil in the nation, Pacific Investment Management Co. Co- Chief Investment Officer [broken link removed] said.

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From:

http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-irish-banks-2010-11

Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO has poured gasoline all over the burning fire that is Ireland with his latest comment, according to Bloomberg (via The Guardian).

From Bloomberg:
“What you advise your sister in Ireland now is that you’d say take your money out of an Irish bank and put it in another bank headquartered elsewhere,” El-Erian said. “That’s what happened in Argentina and in emerging economies. People worry about their savings.’

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From:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2010/nov/23/ireland

Ireland bailout – live

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This is how the world sees the Irish Bank situation - is it all sensationalist?

For big or small depositors, I certainly hope so.

We'll be a generation recovering ftom it.

ONQ.
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Some of my money is in AIB and some is in my credit union.
If I cannot leave my money in an Irish Bank I may get on the boat and emigrate.

Some people on politics.ie sharing similar sentiments, taking most of their money with a view to leaving enough in to cover direct debits.
Typically these contributors could be seen as the minority.
But its worrying that with the Bond Markets mugging us and the international media making a meal of our financial embarrassment, they may turn this crisis into a run on the banks.

However it is quite clear the me that the real reaction of the market is not to the figures or whether we can pay them back per se.
It is to the fact there is no functional lending bank in this country.
Unless we have a bank that can lend in the €20,000 to €300,000 range people cannot buy cars or houses.
These are the two biggest purchases that most people make in any economy.

We will become a nation of interior decorators and car repairers, unable to buy the things we move around in or live in and unable to get start up money for new businesses.
We need stimulus packages and measures in teh budge to address this AT AN APPROPRIATE SCALE, not more swinging cuts.
You don't CUT your way out of an economy - you SPEND your way out of an economy - the multiplier effect kicks in - and you don't do it buying and making cottage chjees in your back garden [although you could, and export it too] you do it producing high, value-added goods and services.

I have said it once and I'll keep saying it - tax the $14 Quadrillion Derivative markets!

ONQ.
 
Batt O Keefe said on Miriam O Callaghan tonight right at the very end, that he just wanted to reassure people that their deposits are safe..

Thats the nuclear button to me!! What time do banks open at!!:eek:
 
Same reaction on other boards, the silly man.

Sadly there may be a run tomorrow.

Where is this going to end?

ONQ.
 
Ive just taken a good chunk out of my BOI current account...just in case the atms stop working.

Anything is possible. The banks have to default on their long term debt.
 
A few people scoffed here when I mentioned a few months ago that my friend has been stockpiling food and other supplies for ages. I thought he was a bit crazy myself. But is it coming to that?
 
In 2007, Anglo Irish Bank had a deposit base of €47 billion. Today it is €14 billion. Yet to this day, Anglo Irish Bank are still open and honouring withdrawals of deposits. How is the bank still open?
 
Raskolnikov said:
In 2007, Anglo Irish Bank had a deposit base of €47 billion. Today it is €14 billion. Yet to this day, Anglo Irish Bank are still open and honouring withdrawals of deposits. How is the bank still open?
Click to expand...

The kindness of strangers...or the ECB
 
onq said:
It is to the fact there is no functional lending bank in this country.
Unless we have a bank that can lend in the €20,000 to €300,000 range people cannot buy cars or houses.
These are the two biggest purchases that most people make in any economy.
Click to expand...

The fact that people now can't get credit to buy cars or high LTV housing loans is no bad thing.
 
Not sure why the panic , the only thing that happened this week was the banks line of credit was secured for the next years.

As was the supply of money that would by needed if a government guarantee was called in.
 
jhegarty said:
Not sure why the panic , the only thing that happened this week was the banks line of credit was secured for the next years.

As was the supply of money that would by needed if a government guarantee was called in.
Click to expand...


agree 100%. deposits safer now than few weeks ago i would think
 
onq said:
However it is quite clear the me that the real reaction of the market is not to the figures or whether we can pay them back per se.
It is to the fact there is no functional lending bank in this country.
Unless we have a bank that can lend in the €20,000 to €300,000 range people cannot buy cars or houses.
These are the two biggest purchases that most people make in any economy.
Click to expand...
Credit fueled buying is what caused this whole mess. You cannot be serious to suggest that getting people to go even further into debt is going to solve anything?

onq said:
We will become a nation of interior decorators and car repairers, unable to buy the things we move around in or live in and unable to get start up money for new businesses.
We need stimulus packages and measures in teh budge to address this AT AN APPROPRIATE SCALE, not more swinging cuts.
Click to expand...
We have too many service sector businesses that should never have come into existence, and never would have if the property bubble had not existed. These businesses and jobs have to go.
Please give us just one example where stimulus has worked? The US have tried fiscal and monetary stimulus and none of it has worked!

onq said:
You don't CUT your way out of an economy - you SPEND your way out of an economy - the multiplier effect kicks in - and you don't do it buying and making cottage chjees in your back garden [although you could, and export it too] you do it producing high, value-added goods and services.
Click to expand...
You are 100% wrong on this. There is not one example in history where spending has caused economic recovery. This is total and utter Keynesian rubbish. How do you explain that Germany started recovering as soon as budget cuts and simplified taxation was being introduced. The one and only thing that can get an economy out of trouble is a reduction in government and credit spending and an increase in real savings that can be invested in viable businesses.

onq said:
I have said it once and I'll keep saying it - tax the $14 Quadrillion Derivative markets!
Click to expand...
And no matter how many times you say it the "$14 Quadrillion Derivative markets" is a tiny fraction of that size in actual transactions. Please do yourself a favour and learn how derivatives work and operate before you buy into the idea that there is a hidden port of gold.
 
Chris said:
Credit fueled buying is what caused this whole mess. You cannot be serious to suggest that getting people to go even further into debt is going to solve anything?


We have too many service sector businesses that should never have come into existence, and never would have if the property bubble had not existed. These businesses and jobs have to go.
Please give us just one example where stimulus has worked? The US have tried fiscal and monetary stimulus and none of it has worked!


You are 100% wrong on this. There is not one example in history where spending has caused economic recovery. This is total and utter Keynesian rubbish. How do you explain that Germany started recovering as soon as budget cuts and simplified taxation was being introduced. The one and only thing that can get an economy out of trouble is a reduction in government and credit spending and an increase in real savings that can be invested in viable businesses.


And no matter how many times you say it the "$14 Quadrillion Derivative markets" is a tiny fraction of that size in actual transactions. Please do yourself a favour and learn how derivatives work and operate before you buy into the idea that there is a hidden port of gold.
Click to expand...

very well put!
 
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