Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Irish and British HPs have risen in proportion to the fall in interest rates.
Prior to 1970 mortgage lending was effectively rationed which kept HPs low and Irs were always lowish as strict controls on banks and foreign exchange prevented the need for high Irs to cool the economy.
After 1970 IRs were very volatile and all booms until this one were curtailed by steeply rising IRs.....
I have been a regular contributor to house price crash for 2 years.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showforum=22
 
cjh said:
Minister vows to curb property speculator greed

More from Monister Ahern in today's Indo on speculators and 100% mortgages.
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Based on the past performance* of this government (little action but lots of talk and spin) they must fear that the crash will, rather inconveniently, arrive this side of the election and are busy putting on the fig leaves.


*Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, except in the case of the government.
 
*Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, except in the case of the government.[/quote]

:D Excellent.
 
Could the tragi-comedy of the Irish property market get anymore ridiculous? Enforcing a reduction of mortgage lending terms combined with increasing rates/housing stock and possible taxes on speculators will only copperfasten the likelyhood of a crash.
 
Loan Terms

Frankly the banks will bring in 40 year and multi generational mortgage if allowed and probably multi generation 'neg ams' too.

The government should bar all these products, terms capped and Neg-Ams of any sort, by statute.

The longest mortgage term should not exceed 30 years IO or 25 Year repayment and 100% should mean not a penny more .

The taxpayer will be asked to wipe the banks arses for them anyway when it all goes pear shaped :(
 
Duh.

The mortgage lending terms should never have been loosened in the first place, and the loosening thereof caused the market to go irrational in the first place. This needs to be sorted out.

Interest rates have been at a historic low. Assuming they'd stay that way is naive.

Speculators should be taxed. They are not adding the economic wellbeing of the country.

Property in Ireland is not priced rationally according to basic fundamentals such as ROI for investors, equivalent rentals or salaries. Like it or not, there will be a correction at some stage, just the longer we wait for it, the bigger its impact will be.

Your post sounds more like "don't upset the applecart and we'll worry about the future later".
 
askalot said:
Based on the past performance* of this government (little action but lots of talk and spin) they must fear that the crash will, rather inconveniently, arrive this side of the election and are busy putting on the fig leaves.
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They know that a crash arriving this side of the election would do them in. They wouldn't have a hope of getting elected. In fact I would go as far as to say, they must think that a crash definitely will not arrive this side of the election.

If Ahern thought a crash was imminent he would surely not be stupid enough to do something that would likely precipitate it (i.e. a flood of speculative houses being dumped en masse on the market) and kill his political career.

That said, knowing the form of Noel Ahern, anything is possible.
 
It would take one monumental act of cute-hoorism to keep the property tsunami from hitting land prior to the next election. I think we're at the beginning of break-water stage.
 
CelloPoint said:
It would take one monumental act of cute-hoorism to keep the property tsunami from hitting land prior to the next election. I think we're at the beginning of break-water stage.
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Well the guys in charge are past masters at that. Should be an interesting budget.
 
FF will go early

I can promise ye now that if the wind starts to hiss loudly :p out of the market in September then FF will call an election as quickly as possible (October) before it goes tits up altogether.
 
Bedsit said:
Snippets from two articles in today's Irish Times Property Section

"The autumn sales season has begun and signs are it's going to be frenetic with estate agents reporting a higher than expected volume of houses coming on the market in most parts of Dublin. Although no one is suggesting oversupply just yet, vendors are obviously keen to get their properties out there while prices are still seen to be rising."

[broken link removed]

Q&A
We need to sell quickly afterprevious sales fell through
We put our house on the market in February and, to cut a very stressful story short, during that time two buyers pulled out after they had paid their deposit. One couple split up and the other woman couldn't get the finance. Our new house is now ready and we must sell by the end of September. We have switched agent and feel the new one will do a better job. Is there anything we can do to make absolutely sure that this time the sale will go through?

".... There will be a huge number of properties on the market in September so make sure yours stands out. ..."

[broken link removed]
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Its interesting that both articles refer to an increased supply this Autumn. That by iteself will mean demand will be satisfied more which should mean lower prices. Couple that with nervous buyers and you've got a stalled market.
 
Looks like the government is [broken link removed]...

The Government will today publish plans to introduce unprecedented fines and even jail terms for traders engaging in unscrupulous practices, in the first major piece of new consumer law for 30 years.

Minister for Enterprise Micheál Martin will give details this morning of the Consumer Protection Bill, which is expected to specify over 30 trading practices which are to be outlawed.

These include making false claims about goods or services offered for sale, including property.

So no more shadow bidders and "near to prime area" misleading adverts. :D
 
The fact is prices will slow to the rate of inflation at most sometime in next 16 months. When this occurs (even the banks say it will occur in 2007) it remains to be seen if the market stagnates and grows at 2or 3% per annum (a fall in real terms) or enters zero or negative nominal growth. I personally feel the market will slow to 2% growth sometime in next 12 months and grow at that rate for a year or two and only then with bumper supply continuing will large numbers of investors sell and drive market much lower, this will probably coincide with a slowdown and this slowdown will in turn be made worse by a falling property market, expect a recession within 5 years.
 
phoenix_n said:
Its interesting that both articles refer to an increased supply this Autumn. That by iteself will mean demand will be satisfied more which should mean lower prices. Couple that with nervous buyers and you've got a stalled market.
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In a rational market yes but as soon as the supply is increased "investors" are snapping them up despite static rents etc, speculative demand exists to meet any excess supply from people who want to actually live in their purchase. They will get their just desserts soon enough.
 
Harrogate said:
Extraordinary thing about the Irish housing market compared to the one here in England is the number of new builds. The Uk's population is around 15 times as big as Ireland's yet only 125,000 new homes built every year..scarcely any more than on your side of the water.
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We all live in four houses each... its a long story.
 
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